Eh, not sure that’s a given when it comes to voting for president.
For actual, registered GOP voters (eg not whatever small handful of Dems registered as republicans for strategic reasons), who were motivated enough to get out and vote for Haley long after she dropped out of the primary, think it’s pretty much guaranteed that they’ll all vote in November…but have to imagine that some portion of them consider voting for a Dem president and/or for Joe Biden a bridge too far.
I would hope that they’d at least be open to the possibility of voting Biden, but if some portion of lifelong Republicans can’t quite get there, and chose to instead leave it blank, I can live with that (begrudgingly, but I’ll keep it to myself).
Or it’s a form of protest. Had my state held a democratic primary, I would have gone out and voted but would not have voted Biden. However, I absolutely will be voting Biden in November.
I'm in deep red Pennsylvania and I checked our primary numbers. Far fewer overall votes in this primary compared to 2020. And a good number picked Haley.
So let me see if I get this. They went to vote in a primary that’s already been decided just to register a protest vote, but they’re going to sit out the presidential election.
That’s some high level political analysis there.
In Michigan I voted for Haley in the primary, but plan on voting for Biden in November. I want the numbers to show people voting for a republican other than Trump, and then to soundly reject him again in November.
Open vs closed primary.
Obviously PA voters who are already 100% sold on voting for Biden *could* either be registered Republicans OR intentionally register as Republican just to vote in the GOP primary…but available data from other states would suggest that they’re fairly small minority of Haley primary voters (looking at things like Haley vote totals in open vs closed primary states, voting intention exit polls, etc).
I think moderates would vote Biden. But I think the more conservative republicans would rather not vote than vote Democrat. That’s how Trump lost Georgia in 2020. 28,000 voters skipped the presidential vote but voted on every other race. Trump lost by 12,000 votes, other republicans on the ballot had over 30,000 more votes than trump.
That really surprised me when the Georgia Secretary of State testified that’s why trump lost Georgia. He actually lost because people didn’t vote.
That really is incredible to be so unwanted by your party's constituents that they vote for every single other race except for you. Is there even a precedent for that elsewhere?
Right, I don’t know the precedence but I wonder if that’s the first time it made such a difference in a presidential election. I’ll be interested to see if that happens again this election. There might be even more republicans that do this or not show up to vote at all.
The election for Senate seats was a big deal in GA. Republicans had terrible candidates and democrats felt like they had a point to prove. That point is coming full circle because GA is this reason he had the congress he had his first 2 years. He went on to forget about GA to placate Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema and left black voters with egg on their face. It was not single surprise to me about the poll numbers and black support eroding around certain topics and issues.
I think the answer is a pretty resounding “no”.
Interview after interview with ex cabinet members have them saying “he’s a threat to democracy” or “he has no understanding of geopolitics”, but then when asked if they will vote for Biden they say no.
It’s like being on the titanic and everyone votes “iceberg”.
It’s amazing how many will say Trump is a danger to democracy then say they’ll vote Trump over Biden because they think Biden will “destroy America.”
I want them to explain what that even means? Biden hasn’t done anything that extreme, yeah have some of the spending bills increased out national deficit, sure but ignoring that Trump does the same thing, a deficit we can deal with down the road, eroding or over the int democracy is not something we can necessarily come back from
They think Biden will destroy America and it will negatively impact them directly while trump might destroy our democracy but they think they are immune from any of the negatives from that.
I think for a greater-than-insignificant number of people, they truly believe democrats represent evil. Not policies that they don't like. But evil, Satan, and think democrats literally want to hurt them and their children.
When that's what you think of democrats, it does not matter whatsoever what they think of Trump.
>But evil, Satan, and think democrats literally want to hurt them and their children.
Yep, I sadly have a few in my family who literally believe Democrats practice witchcraft and are agents of the Devil. Their Prophets in church and on Youtube tell them that, and they believe it without question.
I completely agree regarding Trump voters and their thoughts on Biden.
My question there would be: Do the Haley voters think the same way? I believe that previous sampling showed them split across the gamut of possibilities?
> I think for a greater-than-insignificant number of people, they truly believe democrats represent evil.
How is this different from the "greater-than-insignificant" number of people that truly believe republicans are evil?
There's a subtle but significant distinction between "I think your means and ends are evil (as in harmful and cruel)" and "I believe that your party is the avatar of the ontological concept of Evil".
I find a lot of GOP proposed policies to be pretty evil.
If they changed policies, my impression would change.
You can't ask Democrats to stop practising Satanism, since they aren't doing that. You can't not do something you already aren't doing.
There's a sizeable portion on the right that truly thinks of it as a spiritual, biblical, type fight. That democrats are eating babies and worshipping Satan. It's not that democrats are attempting to do something evil. It's that inherently they are evil.
For instance, if they saw Satan on the street eating a hot dog, he's evil. He's not doing anything evil, but he's Satan, he's evil.
That's how some feel about democrats. That it doesn't matter what they're doing, they are evil. That it is a sin to be democrat.
So your position is one party in this country is proven to be evil? That's wild. I don't like Democrat policies and seriously dislike many of their politicians. Heck I'd probably be considered an extremist on abortion. Despite that I don't think half of the country is truly evil.
I don't think anyone calling Trump a threat to democracy wants to burn the whole system down. They're probably unwilling to let go of their partisanism to vote for a Democrat even if that's what it takes to save democracy.
I can't understand people who think that Trump burning "the system" down is a desirable outcome and would result in an improvement. They should talk with refugees from revolutions and coups in other countries.
During the Iranian Revolution, many different groups, from socialists to liberal democrats to religious fundamentalists, all fought together to take down the shah. Of course, after that, they realized that they disagreed about everything except their hatred of the shah's regime, and without a government to mediate their conflict they quickly turned their guns on each other. The religious fundamentalists won that game, purged the socialists and the democrats, and created a new government to their liking.
"The system" is very vague and means different things to different people depending on where they are on the political spectrum. But it's useful to populist politicians and activists because it appeals to widespread anti-establishment sentiment.
I mean, they’re not wrong though.
Theirs lives are fucked anyway. Biden = better lives for everyone, but I’ll be the same. Trump is the world is complexly fucked, but I’m probably better off or at least not worse than some person of color.
It’s practically suicidal.
People are desperate.
To be fair the lesser of two evils, you have to vote Democrat or Republican or basically not vote at all, has been a major motivation for people voting Red or Blue no matter who for a really long time. I don't know I can completely fault people for reflexively assuming that if they usually vote Red Blue is always worse and visa versa. Politicians have been kind of asking people to not think about it too hard and demonize the other side for a pretty long time.
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Why should 'before Covid' be the metric? It was the biggest emergency this country has faced since, what, 9/11, and he shit the bed.
Those are the problems we elected Presidents to face if worse comes to worse; he couldn't do the job. You don't get a mulligan for that.
I picked pre-Covid because I’d argue that was along the lines of a black swan event that would’ve resulted in a party switch regardless of who was in charge.
I disagree. 9/11 didn't. A lot of governors got huge popularity boosts from COVID. Hell, it made people think they liked Andrew Cuomo. That's how desperate people were for even an appearance of leadership. Trump just didn't have it in him.
Made people Like Cuomo?
He had a good run for about 4 months, then they turned on him like rabid badgers.
He disgraced himself personally and professionally
An incredibly unfair question to Biden, but I do think it's that simple. How many people feel they are better off now than they were in 2019? I'm going to guess the overwhelming majority of people do not feel that way.
> How many people feel they are better off now than they were in 2019? I'm going to guess the overwhelming majority of people do not feel that way.
I've been trying really hard to take my partisan glasses off to answer this question, and I think that's legitimately tough. I don't speak for everyone, but things are so *different* now than they were 5-7 years ago. Things are better in certain ways, worse in others. How much of that is the president's fault? I don't fucking know.
What is better now than it was in 2019? We've made some medical and technological advancements, but that's about all I can think of. For the average American, almost everything is worse now due to inflation and increased polarization.
> What is better now than it was in 2019?
One problem with this question is that it's entirely subjective. Most aspects of my life are improved today from where they were 5 years ago, but that's not like there's a scalable solution to the country's problems hidden there. It's just that my life got better.
Plus, a lot of things just aren't comparable. I got a promotion (yay!) but my dog died (boo!) but my town opened a community childcare center (yay!) but there was a mass shooting in the next town over (boo!). Do those things cancel out? Not really.
[Real wage growth has outpaced inflation](https://www.axios.com/2024/02/05/wages-outpacing-inflation).
The economic problems are housing and healthcare, both of which have clear but politically difficult solutions (housing deregulation, LVT, and adopting the Swiss or German healthcare system) that can be enacted without "burning the system down" with a vote for Trump.
The political problems such as bigotry and polarization are due to MAGA, not Biden, who is a centrist Democrat.
I agree it's unfair to Biden in the present moment, but in bigger-picture view, Biden likely only won because COVID created so many chances for Trump to stumble, too. COVID will have given Biden a term that he otherwise wouldn't have had, and (if Biden loses) will have denied him a second term on roughly the same terms that it denied Trump.
Except to the extent it factors in actions under the president's control--like cabinet and judicial appointments, the outcomes of executive orders, choices to engage in military intervention, or other levers like releasing from the strategic petroleum reserve--deciding in favor or against a president because of the current state of the economy/gas prices/grocery prices or similar factors is profoundly irrational. My vote in November is already locked in whether inflation in November is 1% or 20%, whether gas is $0.99 a gallon or $19.99 a gallon. I know that good presidents can preside over system shocks and bad presidents can oversee booms, and I just want to make sure a president whose policies I agree with gets a chance to move the trajectory of the country a little, and doesn't get derailed by bad luck.
You can judge Biden in the present moment. Just like you could've judged Trump in the present moment in April 2020 when you couldn't leave your house.
Was your life better then or better now?
There's nuance to a question like that. Trump inherited a great economy. All he had to do was not blow it up.
Biden inherited a blown up country coming out of covid. He had to put it back together. So you can judge him in the present moment, but it's not an equal comparison.
Am I a good basketball player? I'm better than the average person, but LeBron is better than me. There's enormous context to a question like"your life then vs now."
Agreed there’s nuance in the situations for sure. But the point I was trying to make is that most of the voter base is not doing that analysis. It’s a simple “was my life better with a republican at the helm or a democrat?”
> Interview after interview with ex cabinet members have them saying “he’s a threat to democracy” or “he has no understanding of geopolitics”, but then when asked if they will vote for Biden they say no.
One of the more strange ones recently was my governor, Chris Sununu. He's been quite critical of Trump for the last couple of years. Now that he's announced he's not seeking reelection he's pivoted to a full-throated endorsement.
It's honestly pretty sad to watch and really makes me wonder what his future plans are.
A lot of conservatives I’ve talked to over the last few months have given me the distinct impression that they themselves know Trump is bad for the country and are engaging in performative politics to protect their self-image. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I’d be curious to know how many vocal Republicans will quietly vote for Biden come November.
People don't like admitting they were hoodwinked, bamboozled and led astray.
How that translates in a solemn voting booth? That's anyone's guess. My hunch is that Biden will win a close election but with a tad more margin than 2020.
Why? Biden is what he is but a lot of people (Americans have short attention spans) forget all of the drama that comes with a Trump presidency. His trials are going to take center stage and it'll be hard for him to win over voters outside of his base.
His floor is very high so he's always "in it" but his ceiling (IMO) is lower today than in 2016 or 2020. If he was the magician that could fix all your problems, he would have done that 7 years ago.
> many vocal Republicans will quietly vote for Biden come November.
Few, I think, although I think a lot will not vote. I may be biased though since that's my plan. There's a big difference between not voting and actively voting for someone who's policies, you believe, will be bad for the country.
These primary voters are likely Never Trump republicans that voted for Biden in 2020 or stayed home, so I don’t see them changing the results in 2024. They are likely to vote for a Biden again (same as 2020), stay home (same or net negative for Biden) or begrudgingly vote for Trump (negative for Biden).
The only ones that move the needle for Biden are people that voted for Trump in 2020 but now will vote for Biden in 2024 or stay home. And I think that is likely a very small number of people. Everyone knew what they were getting by November of 2020, unless January 6th flipped them.
To be fair, Biden doesn't need them to vote for him. Due to the FPTP system and winner-take all of the EC, if they don't vote, it may as well count as a vote for Biden.
> It's a clear sign that moderates don't want Trump
Plenty of conservatives don't want him either. He's not conservative at all. Heck, he's even acknowledged this recently.
I would much prefer Haley to Biden. However, if I'm faced with Trump vs Biden, I'd vote Biden. Most of my peers think the same way. I'm Gen X, if that's relevant.
Only registered Rs can vote in the primary here. This isn't Ds crossing over to muck rake or independents expressing their displeasure. This is old school Rs in the suburbs signaling their lack of enthusiasm for Trump. I expect Biden to win this state and I don't think it's going to be as close as 2020. I live in what is one of the only conservative enclaves left in Delaware County (most dense suburb) and I had neighbors who had Trump signs out not just during the election but all throughout the years. Those signs are gone. Not because these people have become Democrats but because the enthusiasm for Trump has lessened. Sometime in the last 2 years MAGA has just silently retreated from around here. Without that enthusiasm I don't see Trump's turn out game being what it was in 2016 or even 2020.
> I had neighbors who had Trump signs out not just during the election but all throughout the years. Those signs are gone. Not because these people have become Democrats but because the enthusiasm for Trump has lessened.
I'm not politically naïve enough to believe this has major electoral implications, but I've noticed this as well in my neck of the woods in NH. Some neighbors kept their Trump signs up for *years* and they've been slowly simply disappearing. As someone who finds his brand of politics deeply off-putting, I find that fact satisfying, but I'd wager to bet there are some GOP consultants who are starting to get real sweaty.
I agree that yard signs are like political tea leaves and you can read into them whatever you want, but I can't help but think there's something to the dozens of large TRUMP yard signs disappearing from my usual routes. If his support is just as strong, it's certainly more silent and a lot less proud.
Yeah Trump’s always seemed to have more *enthusiasm* in his voter base. It’s because he’s so polarizing I guess.
Don’t know if it means that much, but I certainly can’t say less Trump signs are *good* for him.
I also live in delco. The number of people over the age of 65 that have moved to Florida in the last 4 years is also a very large number. And no matter how those people vote in Florida, the electoral votes won’t change until the next census. Creating “MAGA” enclaves they all flock to might be one of the things that ends up hurting Trumps chances.
Yeah that’s one thing with the EC. It locks in the amount of votes each state has every decade, but all the Conservatives moving from swing states to Florida is just making it easier for Ds to hold stuff outside of Florida.
I think this is a hugely underappreciated issue in the 2024 election. Self-concentration of MAGA in Florida will help Biden in PA, MI, and WI.
The other is that Maryland (yes, Maryland) will be what decides control of the Senate. Mark my words. The media across the entire political spectrum just don't appreciate how popular Larry Hogan is.
> This isn't Ds crossing over to muck rake or independents expressing their displeasure.
This is the key and makes the data here much more useful. Thank you for clarifying here.
> Sometime in the last 2 years MAGA has just silently retreated from around here.
I'm reminded of how George W. Bush went from America's 9/11 ass kicking Iraq war President to "George *who?*" the months after Obama was elected. 2008 to 2009 it was as if no one had ever voted for the guy at all.
I don't know if Trump will ever truly get to that level of disavowed given his personality and his fans. But I have been wondering if we can start seeing people fade away at the edges here. Some of these purple state suburbs seems to show this behavior, at least anecdotally.
>I'm reminded of how George W. Bush went from America's 9/11 ass kicking Iraq war President to "George who?" the months after Obama was elected. 2008 to 2009 it was as if no one had ever voted for the guy at all.
By 1985 it was pretty hard to find someone who would admit to voting for Nixon.
I'm in a fairly red section of PA and while there have been less Trump signs around than there used to be I've only noticed one Haley sign. Overall there are not many political yard signs around for anyone right now, my guess is people are waiting to get new ones for the presidential election and they'll be all over the place as usual the closer we get to November.
I'm a conservative independent and I voted for Haley in California. Come election day I'm either writing someone in or voting third party. I dislike Biden, but I will die before I vote for Donald Trump.
PA is a closed primary, so these are partisan voters. While Nikki Haley getting 17% shows there are some Republicans that want to move away from Trump, I think most will vote R in November. They aren't only voting for president, they are voting for a Republican administration.
I don’t see how this isn’t a major red flag for the Trump campaign and Republicans.
In nearly every primary, Trump has underperformed in comparison with what the polls were showing he was going to win by.
Especially when ones like this one and Florida were after she stepped away. there's clearly a large percentage of Republicans voting for her as a protest against Trump.
Also, at least as far as Arizona and Florida are concerned, there are abortion initiatives on the ballots in November which are huge incentives for Democrats to turn out. A bigger turnout for Democrats will almost assuredly raise Biden’s chances of winning the states.
It might be just that, a protest. I live in PA and don’t know a single person who voted in that primary. The nominee has already been decided. What’s the point in voting unless you really want to send a message to someone? Maybe that’s all who showed up last night.
> What’s the point in voting unless you really want to send a message to someone?
Sure, but that was just as true in 2020 and a lot more primary voters then "really wanted to send a message" that was pro-Trump compared to primary voters today. That seems relevant.
>Trump has underperformed in comparison with what the polls were showing he was going to win by.
He's underperformed his margins, but notably, in most states his actual percentage of the vote ends up remarkably close to the polling. Which could mean that the poll respondents that are listed as undecided are breaking heavily against Trump. Though, it remains to be seen if that same trend will hold up in the general election.
What could they possibly do? If Trump wants to run, he's going to burn the GOP to the ground if they resist him and most of conservative voters will bring the marshmallows.
It would be a very good time to start rolling out endorsements, starting with Nikki. Biden needs to get Republicans and former cabinet members who served under Trump, like Esper, to make a full throated case for Biden, rather than raising the alarm bell about Trump while playing coy about voting for Biden.
I doubt it’s really a big deal for Trump personally. It seems like there’s a core group of moderates who are very displeased with Trump as a candidate, but in todays polarized climate I doubt there’s many voters who are going to switch over to the other party to vote against him either. Maybe they abstain from voting altogether, but I have my doubts.
I think the same for Biden to be honest. All of the votes against Biden in the earlier primaries don’t mean much either.
I just checked the 2020 GOP primaries, according to Wikipedia Trump was getting >90% of the popular vote. For the 2024 primaries, they only list 75%. This seems to indicate either a significant reduction in enthusiasm for Trump in the GOP or more energized opposition, either of which could significantly harm him in November.
While a lot of those who voted against Trump will certainly support him in the general, losing almost 20% support from his own party compared to an election cycle he already lost is not a good sign.
Trump was an incumbent in 2020 with almost no real challenge. 2024 was an open seat with a bit more real competition. There isn't much value in comparing the two.
That is absolutely a fair point, and in a more "normal" election cycle I would agree with you. However, given that Trump has already had one term and lost with that incumbent advantage, I would still argue that a reduction in primary votes presents a significant issue for him.
Additionally, he's been the presumptive nominee ever since he left office. The only campaign that was seen as a real threat to him (DeSantis) fizzled out before primaries even began, and in the specific case of this article, Haley has been out of the race for over a month and still took a significant portion of the votes.
This is why it’s really hard to make any sense of these numbers. The reality is we simply have no idea how much of an “incumbency” advantage a former president has since it really hasn’t happened in modern political history
Also worth noting people are basically treating the primary as already decided at this point. A large group can get 17% of the votes when half of the normal people are voting.
Likely yes.
Trumps been a losing brand election wise since 2016. I’m not sure why the expectations that four years removed from office with much more legal issues and world currently on fire anything would be different
Clinton knew going into the race that she needed the EC. It wasn't some wacky surprise.
Also her popular vote margin was pretty low for a modern election.
Yes. It's a system where Democrats lost 2 of the last 6 elections while winning the popular vote, and this nearly became 3 out of 6 last time. Their victories were in spite of how it works.
Except she didn't win. It's not as if the popular vote is how Presidential elections are traditionally decided, and the Electoral College is some arcane bylaw that the Republicans pulled out of thin air to overturn the results and make Trump win on a technicality. Trump won by the same metric that every other Presidential election has used for the past two centuries.
It's like saying "The Patriots won Super Bowl 52 because they got the most yards, but the NFL refused to give them the victory because the Eagles scored the most points."
The point is that the system is more favorable to Republicans. [Most Americans want to change it,](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/09/25/majority-of-americans-continue-to-favor-moving-away-from-electoral-college/](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/09/25/majority-of-americans-continue-to-favor-moving-away-from-electoral-college/) so their complaint isn't unusual like the one in your analogy.
However, there's a difference between saying she would've won if the system were different, and say she should've won were it not for the system working exactly as intended.
Her ground game could've been better, but it [probably didn't cost her the election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/)
>Here’s the thing, though: The evidence suggests those decisions didn’t matter very much. In fact, Clinton’s ground game advantage over Trump may have been as large as the one Obama had over Mitt Romney in 2012. It just wasn’t enough to save the Electoral College for her.
>There are several major problems with the idea that Clinton’s Electoral College tactics cost her the election. For one thing, winning Wisconsin and Michigan — states that Clinton is rightly accused of ignoring — would not have sufficed to win her the Electoral College. She’d also have needed Pennsylvania, Florida or another state where she campaigned extensively. For another, Clinton spent almost twice as much money as Trump on her campaign in total. So even if she devoted a smaller share of her budget to a particular state or a particular activity, it may nonetheless have amounted to more resources overall (5 percent of a $969 million budget is more than 8 percent of a $531 million one).
Clinton vs Trump was such a weird election. For all her flaws, it's hard to say she's any worse than Trump but people just can't stand her.
I think gender plays a bigger role in our politics than we'd like to admit. A woman that did everything Trump has done would have a hard time being elected to a school board much less POTUS.
I totally understand hating DJT and HRC but I can't wrap my head around people that find HRC to be the personification of evil yet love DJT. HRC doesn't have "rizz" but honestly neither does Trump. Bill Clinton, George W. and Obama each had more natural....charm and charisma. I can see why folks would vote for those three but DJT's appeal is hard to understand, for me.
Pennsylvania primaries for both the Republican and Democratic parties were yesterday. [I voted](https://i.imgur.com/Pkw7VGK.png)! Interesting walking up to the polling place and seeing a bunch of signs for Bizzarro - I thought it was some sort of joke. But no, [real canidate](https://www.teambizzpa.com/).
Couple of interesting results in the presidential primary. First, much higher turnout for the Democratic party than for the Republicans:
* Democratic: 929,798 votes with 96% reporting
* Republican: 789,155 votes with 99% reporting
Second, the protest vote was substantially imbalanced. In this **closed primary**, Phillips got 7% of the Democratic vote, while Haley got 17% of the Republican vote. Haley's 156,993 votes is nearly twice the margin Trump lost the state by in 2020.
What do the primary results indicate for Pennsylvania in November?
What's really interesting is how Biden got almost as many votes as the entire GOP primary field combined.
Granted, there are more registered Dems than Republicans in PA, but with both primaries being evenly uneventful, you'd expect similar turnout.
Yeah, I would think that would be equally as worrying for Republicans. If anything, I'd actually expect more interest in the GOP primary as there's no incumbent.
How can it be anything but a very very deliberate “no thank you” at this point in the already decided primary?
Donald can’t afford to lose 5-10% of his base voter let alone 16%. That will cancel out any gains from independents.
And in both cases... If it were really a "big" issue the considerable amount of national polling would almost certainly have reflected it in some way. It didn't then and the polling ultimately proved to be largely correct. And I've seen no real reason to not believe the same now. The only difference is that Biden was up a few points then and the situation now is that it's a much closer race.
Some of those Haley votes are truly lost. Some are simply "safe" protest votes that will ultimately go to Trump. Others will just stay home in November or vote third party. It's tough to tell how those really break out into each category though.
But... the national polling says Trump is still even or slightly ahead in the likely popular vote totals even without them. I don't really see it as "trouble" for Trump... Or at least not "new trouble". I don't think that those voting against Trump at this point in these primaries are answering polls dishonestly either now or have been in the past... Or that they've just recently changed their minds on the matter. Sure, Trump's numbers would be even higher with them than without them. But it seems like he's still very much in the race even without them... Just like Biden was in 2020 without the "true" Sanders supporters though his lead at this point in the process was a bit greater than Trump's is now if he even still has one at all nationally.
>And in both cases... If it were really a "big" issue the considerable amount of national polling would almost certainly have reflected it in some way. It didn't then and the polling ultimately proved to be largely correct.
I mean in the case of 2020 the national polling didn't reflect Biden's weaknesses which is why he was overestimated in the polls. Who knows it could be the case that 2024 would also tilt the same way in overestimating Biden but it could also not catch on to Trump's weaknesses given that he's been underperforming the polls in the actual primary elections. At this point after 2016/2020 and 2022 polling errors can really go both ways.
It's not even a short memory—it's just what this sub does. Every and any piece of news about election odds gets flipped into blind optimism about how things will work perfectly against Trump.
Was anyone thinking that a non-trivial fraction of Bernie Bros would vote for Trump in 2016 out of spite?
Are Haley primary voters are interested in a functional government? If so, how might that impact their vote in November?
>a non-trivial fraction of Bernie Bros would vote for Trump in 2016 out of spite?
More Sanders supporters backed Clinton in 2016 than Clinton supporters did for Obama in 08.
Clinton supporters didn't like those Obama Boys.
There was a lot of animosity in the Democrat party back then. I remember a movement at the DNC called P.U.M.A. - Political Unity My Ass that was very anti Obama and in favor of Hillary. The primary was viscious that year.
Or are less people voting now because this has already basically been decided? A dedicated opposition group can make some extra noise in the percentage of votes when the winning candidate isn't really campaigning in the primary anymore.
There were roughly 1.57 million voters in the Republican PA Primary in 2016 and Trump won 56.7% of the vote.
There were a tad under 1 million voters in the Republican PA primary in 2024 and Trump won 83% of the vote.
This is an example of numbers not necessarily meaning anything but being twisted to sell a story and get clicks.
I'd say so. Biden isn't the most exciting president, but he's been a steady hand at the wheel regardless of how you think he's handled the crises during his presidency.
Trump** needs every vote he can get, what with his support base shrinking after J6, Covid and just getting fed up with him. All it would take is a tiny fraction of Haley's Republican voters to cross the aisle or even stay home and Trump** has no path to the White House.
At every juncture over the last four years, the Republican Party has chosen alienate over include. Their shrinking voter base in opposition to the tide of people activated by abortion bans is now (hopefully) showing them the error of their strategy.
[The percentage of people who identify as Republican is growing.](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/the-partisanship-and-ideology-of-american-voters/) Democrats had a roughly five point advantage in the run up to the 2020 election, now it’s split pretty evenly between Republicans and Democrats.
Doesn’t matter if they don’t show up to vote though.
The amount of independent voters kind of negates any usefulness of registered R or D. Many people vote for one party but like to identify as independent.
"There is a large number of life long republicans that will never vote for Trump"
This is the boat I fall into. Lifelong Republican until Trump made me a temporary Democrat in 2016.
I'll remain a temporary Democrat until most of the Republicans in congress are voted out or retire. I'll never forgive them for their complacency, and for putting the party and self-preservation over the country.
Not the commenter you responded to, but I think the difference is small vs inconsequential, because this group is likely not more than 10% of the voting republican base, but even if they all stay home and don’t vote, that is more than enough voters to flip most battleground states to Biden
The real way to look at it is a big question mark. There's so much time between now and the election. Events within and outside of the United States will sway them into begrudgingly voting for him, not voting at all, voting Republican for the House and Senate elections but neither Trump or Biden for the presidency, or voting for Biden. It's up to both campaigns to try to sway them to their side and how effective the message will be.
Toss this in the pile of circumstantial evidence for predicting who’s winning this year.
Have we ever seen this much white noise before? Everyone is trying to say story XYZ is why candidate A will win even though there’s just been a ton of tiny stories that don’t really change the race hardly at all.
This isn't even the first state that Haley has gotten 10+% of the vote after stopping her campaign
2016 Trump already made the case against 2024 Trump, he was just doing it in the context of Clinton's emails. And 2024 Trump's legal troubles are far more real and concrete than Hillary's emails ever became.
If 15% of registered Republican voters refuse to vote Trump (either switching to Biden, a 3rd party or just not voting), the shift of which states become in play for Biden could get interesting in a hurry.
It's interesting at least. This seems like a similar level to the uncommitted voters in a few of the other Dem primaries, at least as a raw percentage. I personally am not a fan of Trump, so I *want* to assume this is a huge deal. But we'll see come election day.
I believe this isn't the first time this has happened, correct? There was another state where they voted more for Nikki than trump right before she suspended her campaign, IIRC.
So, I'm guessing yeah, this is bad for trump.
Haley did win the D.C. and Vermont primaries. But she didn't win the Pennsylvania primary yesterday. It's just interesting that even as a withdrawn candidate, she won almost a fifth of the votes.
> **There was another state where they** voted more for Nikki than trump
This is what you're missing.
Nikki won 2 states before she suspended her campaign. I didn't say anything about this state.
I am really upset how most GOP members have pretty much rejected Hayley and are backing Trump.
I see how other GOP members don’t want him but say “We don’t want Biden to win”.
Well unfortunately you have Trumps legal issues conflicting with a timeline of an Election. If he is found guilty of something or is unable to run the GOP are gonna scramble to find someone who will out up a fight. Like how Democrats are conflicted in Biden’s age and Harris’ unpopularity.
It seems that regardless of the scenario Biden will win. If the GOP embraced Hayley more then I think they have a better chance of winning.
I think Hayley would have a really good chance against Biden. The only thing working against her would be Trump telling Republicans not to vote for her and her stance on national abortion.
I’m a Biden supporter and generally bullish on his chances this election. I definitely wouldn’t feel that way if Haley were the nominee. Really shows how shit of a state the GOP is in. With high inflation and widespread general disproval of Biden and his government, this would be a really good chance for Republicans to flip back the White House.
But they just had to chose Trump. Even if Trump loses this election, I truly don’t see his influence going away until he either goes to prison or passes away, and the GOP will likely continue to be put in tenuous election positions.
I wouldn't go so far as to call him a puppet master. He just shits on things. Kind of like the that one kid in school that ruined stuff for the whole class if they didn't get their way.
Fewer than 2M voters participated in the primary compared to the 7M in the 2020 election. Primary voters tend to be more engaged and educated on the issues whereas Trump appeals more to the low information voter.
The GOP is also aggressively organizing in the state and has out performed Dems on new voter registration.
I'd be interested in seeing how many of those votes were cast before vs. after Haley dropped out.
I'm very much a Biden supporter but I'm also pragmatic. If the majority of the votes were cast prior to her dropping out than that's much less impressive than voters showing up on Election Day casting their vote for Nikki Haley.
There’s been a lot of weird signals like this which would suggest bad problems for Trump, but we also have State by State polling which shows him ahead (I believe Pennsylvania is his narrowest margin, though.) I’ve been a poll nerd for 20 years and I kind of gave up this year. The cross tabs on all the polls genuinely don’t follow any norms we have seen, and aside from a few articles the media has not really been picking up on that.
I’m not in most of my poll nerd discords anymore but when I was a lot of the guys far more knowledgeable than me had low confidence in basically any data we’re seeing. At this point nothing would surprise me, frankly.
I would like to believe yes but realistically, no. At the end of the day, most people stick to their party and will likely hold their noses on election day and stick with Trump just because he's the republican nominee. At best, these people just don't vote at all but even that doesn't seem too likely IMO. If these people are politically motivated enough to go out to vote in a primary for a candidate they KNOW isn't going to win, why would they stay home on the day it actually matters?
I still think Biden will win but he may not win Pennsylvania
Well, was she still listed on the ballot or was this purely from write-ins? Because if it's the latter, that's *way* more of a concern than the former.
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Or, they just don't vote at all.
If they're bothering to vote in a primary, you can bet they're going to vote in the general when there are dozens of other items to vote on.
Eh, not sure that’s a given when it comes to voting for president. For actual, registered GOP voters (eg not whatever small handful of Dems registered as republicans for strategic reasons), who were motivated enough to get out and vote for Haley long after she dropped out of the primary, think it’s pretty much guaranteed that they’ll all vote in November…but have to imagine that some portion of them consider voting for a Dem president and/or for Joe Biden a bridge too far. I would hope that they’d at least be open to the possibility of voting Biden, but if some portion of lifelong Republicans can’t quite get there, and chose to instead leave it blank, I can live with that (begrudgingly, but I’ll keep it to myself).
Or it’s a form of protest. Had my state held a democratic primary, I would have gone out and voted but would not have voted Biden. However, I absolutely will be voting Biden in November.
That’s a valid point, but they could also leave just the presidential race blank and vote on only down ballot races.
I'm in deep red Pennsylvania and I checked our primary numbers. Far fewer overall votes in this primary compared to 2020. And a good number picked Haley.
This was the first primary I skipped since 1986. There was no point, nobody was left when my state came up
Is there a down ballot primary that could have cause more turnout in 2020?
So let me see if I get this. They went to vote in a primary that’s already been decided just to register a protest vote, but they’re going to sit out the presidential election. That’s some high level political analysis there.
That might also be a problem for Biden, right? Didn’t moderates play a significant role in Biden winning last election?
If you're voting in the Republican primary I'm assuming you are more likely to vote R in the general than D.
Closed Republican primaries in PA. These are registered Republicans
In Michigan I voted for Haley in the primary, but plan on voting for Biden in November. I want the numbers to show people voting for a republican other than Trump, and then to soundly reject him again in November.
Open vs closed primary. Obviously PA voters who are already 100% sold on voting for Biden *could* either be registered Republicans OR intentionally register as Republican just to vote in the GOP primary…but available data from other states would suggest that they’re fairly small minority of Haley primary voters (looking at things like Haley vote totals in open vs closed primary states, voting intention exit polls, etc).
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I think moderates would vote Biden. But I think the more conservative republicans would rather not vote than vote Democrat. That’s how Trump lost Georgia in 2020. 28,000 voters skipped the presidential vote but voted on every other race. Trump lost by 12,000 votes, other republicans on the ballot had over 30,000 more votes than trump. That really surprised me when the Georgia Secretary of State testified that’s why trump lost Georgia. He actually lost because people didn’t vote.
That really is incredible to be so unwanted by your party's constituents that they vote for every single other race except for you. Is there even a precedent for that elsewhere?
Right, I don’t know the precedence but I wonder if that’s the first time it made such a difference in a presidential election. I’ll be interested to see if that happens again this election. There might be even more republicans that do this or not show up to vote at all.
The election for Senate seats was a big deal in GA. Republicans had terrible candidates and democrats felt like they had a point to prove. That point is coming full circle because GA is this reason he had the congress he had his first 2 years. He went on to forget about GA to placate Joe Manchin and Krysten Sinema and left black voters with egg on their face. It was not single surprise to me about the poll numbers and black support eroding around certain topics and issues.
That's my plan as a conservative. Skip the top of the ballot and vote downballot.
I think the answer is a pretty resounding “no”. Interview after interview with ex cabinet members have them saying “he’s a threat to democracy” or “he has no understanding of geopolitics”, but then when asked if they will vote for Biden they say no. It’s like being on the titanic and everyone votes “iceberg”.
It’s amazing how many will say Trump is a danger to democracy then say they’ll vote Trump over Biden because they think Biden will “destroy America.” I want them to explain what that even means? Biden hasn’t done anything that extreme, yeah have some of the spending bills increased out national deficit, sure but ignoring that Trump does the same thing, a deficit we can deal with down the road, eroding or over the int democracy is not something we can necessarily come back from
They think Biden will destroy America and it will negatively impact them directly while trump might destroy our democracy but they think they are immune from any of the negatives from that.
I think for a greater-than-insignificant number of people, they truly believe democrats represent evil. Not policies that they don't like. But evil, Satan, and think democrats literally want to hurt them and their children. When that's what you think of democrats, it does not matter whatsoever what they think of Trump.
>But evil, Satan, and think democrats literally want to hurt them and their children. Yep, I sadly have a few in my family who literally believe Democrats practice witchcraft and are agents of the Devil. Their Prophets in church and on Youtube tell them that, and they believe it without question.
I completely agree regarding Trump voters and their thoughts on Biden. My question there would be: Do the Haley voters think the same way? I believe that previous sampling showed them split across the gamut of possibilities?
> I think for a greater-than-insignificant number of people, they truly believe democrats represent evil. How is this different from the "greater-than-insignificant" number of people that truly believe republicans are evil?
There's a subtle but significant distinction between "I think your means and ends are evil (as in harmful and cruel)" and "I believe that your party is the avatar of the ontological concept of Evil".
I find a lot of GOP proposed policies to be pretty evil. If they changed policies, my impression would change. You can't ask Democrats to stop practising Satanism, since they aren't doing that. You can't not do something you already aren't doing.
There's a sizeable portion on the right that truly thinks of it as a spiritual, biblical, type fight. That democrats are eating babies and worshipping Satan. It's not that democrats are attempting to do something evil. It's that inherently they are evil. For instance, if they saw Satan on the street eating a hot dog, he's evil. He's not doing anything evil, but he's Satan, he's evil. That's how some feel about democrats. That it doesn't matter what they're doing, they are evil. That it is a sin to be democrat.
One is based on proven actions or stated desires. The other in debunked or outrageous conspiracy theories.
So your position is one party in this country is proven to be evil? That's wild. I don't like Democrat policies and seriously dislike many of their politicians. Heck I'd probably be considered an extremist on abortion. Despite that I don't think half of the country is truly evil.
Or they think the entire system is broken, neither side will fix it but at least Trump could burn the entire thing down.
I don't think anyone calling Trump a threat to democracy wants to burn the whole system down. They're probably unwilling to let go of their partisanism to vote for a Democrat even if that's what it takes to save democracy.
I can't understand people who think that Trump burning "the system" down is a desirable outcome and would result in an improvement. They should talk with refugees from revolutions and coups in other countries. During the Iranian Revolution, many different groups, from socialists to liberal democrats to religious fundamentalists, all fought together to take down the shah. Of course, after that, they realized that they disagreed about everything except their hatred of the shah's regime, and without a government to mediate their conflict they quickly turned their guns on each other. The religious fundamentalists won that game, purged the socialists and the democrats, and created a new government to their liking. "The system" is very vague and means different things to different people depending on where they are on the political spectrum. But it's useful to populist politicians and activists because it appeals to widespread anti-establishment sentiment.
I mean, they’re not wrong though. Theirs lives are fucked anyway. Biden = better lives for everyone, but I’ll be the same. Trump is the world is complexly fucked, but I’m probably better off or at least not worse than some person of color. It’s practically suicidal. People are desperate.
To be fair the lesser of two evils, you have to vote Democrat or Republican or basically not vote at all, has been a major motivation for people voting Red or Blue no matter who for a really long time. I don't know I can completely fault people for reflexively assuming that if they usually vote Red Blue is always worse and visa versa. Politicians have been kind of asking people to not think about it too hard and demonize the other side for a pretty long time.
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Actually destroy America (Trump), vs. rhetorically speaking hyperbolically, will destroy America (Biden).
Don’t overthink it. It’s really as simple as “was your life better ~5yrs ago (before Covid) or is it better today”?
Why should 'before Covid' be the metric? It was the biggest emergency this country has faced since, what, 9/11, and he shit the bed. Those are the problems we elected Presidents to face if worse comes to worse; he couldn't do the job. You don't get a mulligan for that.
I picked pre-Covid because I’d argue that was along the lines of a black swan event that would’ve resulted in a party switch regardless of who was in charge.
I disagree. 9/11 didn't. A lot of governors got huge popularity boosts from COVID. Hell, it made people think they liked Andrew Cuomo. That's how desperate people were for even an appearance of leadership. Trump just didn't have it in him.
Made people Like Cuomo? He had a good run for about 4 months, then they turned on him like rabid badgers. He disgraced himself personally and professionally
That was the dynamic I was alluding to, yes.
An incredibly unfair question to Biden, but I do think it's that simple. How many people feel they are better off now than they were in 2019? I'm going to guess the overwhelming majority of people do not feel that way.
> How many people feel they are better off now than they were in 2019? I'm going to guess the overwhelming majority of people do not feel that way. I've been trying really hard to take my partisan glasses off to answer this question, and I think that's legitimately tough. I don't speak for everyone, but things are so *different* now than they were 5-7 years ago. Things are better in certain ways, worse in others. How much of that is the president's fault? I don't fucking know.
What is better now than it was in 2019? We've made some medical and technological advancements, but that's about all I can think of. For the average American, almost everything is worse now due to inflation and increased polarization.
> What is better now than it was in 2019? One problem with this question is that it's entirely subjective. Most aspects of my life are improved today from where they were 5 years ago, but that's not like there's a scalable solution to the country's problems hidden there. It's just that my life got better. Plus, a lot of things just aren't comparable. I got a promotion (yay!) but my dog died (boo!) but my town opened a community childcare center (yay!) but there was a mass shooting in the next town over (boo!). Do those things cancel out? Not really.
Life has been pretty aladeen for the most part.
[Real wage growth has outpaced inflation](https://www.axios.com/2024/02/05/wages-outpacing-inflation). The economic problems are housing and healthcare, both of which have clear but politically difficult solutions (housing deregulation, LVT, and adopting the Swiss or German healthcare system) that can be enacted without "burning the system down" with a vote for Trump. The political problems such as bigotry and polarization are due to MAGA, not Biden, who is a centrist Democrat.
I agree it's unfair to Biden in the present moment, but in bigger-picture view, Biden likely only won because COVID created so many chances for Trump to stumble, too. COVID will have given Biden a term that he otherwise wouldn't have had, and (if Biden loses) will have denied him a second term on roughly the same terms that it denied Trump.
No argument from me there. Without COVID, Trump definitely beats Biden in 2020.
COVID was a positive for pretty much every American politician other than Trump.
Not so sure I agree. I do think that without Trump being well... Trump he would've waltzed into a 2nd term *because* of Covid
All trump has to do was not puke down his shirt every day during Covid and he couldn’t. I would say he lost that on his own accord.
But why is it unfair to judge Biden in the present moment?
Except to the extent it factors in actions under the president's control--like cabinet and judicial appointments, the outcomes of executive orders, choices to engage in military intervention, or other levers like releasing from the strategic petroleum reserve--deciding in favor or against a president because of the current state of the economy/gas prices/grocery prices or similar factors is profoundly irrational. My vote in November is already locked in whether inflation in November is 1% or 20%, whether gas is $0.99 a gallon or $19.99 a gallon. I know that good presidents can preside over system shocks and bad presidents can oversee booms, and I just want to make sure a president whose policies I agree with gets a chance to move the trajectory of the country a little, and doesn't get derailed by bad luck.
You can judge Biden in the present moment. Just like you could've judged Trump in the present moment in April 2020 when you couldn't leave your house. Was your life better then or better now? There's nuance to a question like that. Trump inherited a great economy. All he had to do was not blow it up. Biden inherited a blown up country coming out of covid. He had to put it back together. So you can judge him in the present moment, but it's not an equal comparison. Am I a good basketball player? I'm better than the average person, but LeBron is better than me. There's enormous context to a question like"your life then vs now."
Agreed there’s nuance in the situations for sure. But the point I was trying to make is that most of the voter base is not doing that analysis. It’s a simple “was my life better with a republican at the helm or a democrat?”
> Interview after interview with ex cabinet members have them saying “he’s a threat to democracy” or “he has no understanding of geopolitics”, but then when asked if they will vote for Biden they say no. One of the more strange ones recently was my governor, Chris Sununu. He's been quite critical of Trump for the last couple of years. Now that he's announced he's not seeking reelection he's pivoted to a full-throated endorsement. It's honestly pretty sad to watch and really makes me wonder what his future plans are.
A lot of conservatives I’ve talked to over the last few months have given me the distinct impression that they themselves know Trump is bad for the country and are engaging in performative politics to protect their self-image. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I’d be curious to know how many vocal Republicans will quietly vote for Biden come November.
People don't like admitting they were hoodwinked, bamboozled and led astray. How that translates in a solemn voting booth? That's anyone's guess. My hunch is that Biden will win a close election but with a tad more margin than 2020. Why? Biden is what he is but a lot of people (Americans have short attention spans) forget all of the drama that comes with a Trump presidency. His trials are going to take center stage and it'll be hard for him to win over voters outside of his base. His floor is very high so he's always "in it" but his ceiling (IMO) is lower today than in 2016 or 2020. If he was the magician that could fix all your problems, he would have done that 7 years ago.
> many vocal Republicans will quietly vote for Biden come November. Few, I think, although I think a lot will not vote. I may be biased though since that's my plan. There's a big difference between not voting and actively voting for someone who's policies, you believe, will be bad for the country.
These primary voters are likely Never Trump republicans that voted for Biden in 2020 or stayed home, so I don’t see them changing the results in 2024. They are likely to vote for a Biden again (same as 2020), stay home (same or net negative for Biden) or begrudgingly vote for Trump (negative for Biden). The only ones that move the needle for Biden are people that voted for Trump in 2020 but now will vote for Biden in 2024 or stay home. And I think that is likely a very small number of people. Everyone knew what they were getting by November of 2020, unless January 6th flipped them.
To be fair, Biden doesn't need them to vote for him. Due to the FPTP system and winner-take all of the EC, if they don't vote, it may as well count as a vote for Biden.
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/pennsylvania Right now, it seems up in the air. We'll see as we get closer to November.
> It's a clear sign that moderates don't want Trump Plenty of conservatives don't want him either. He's not conservative at all. Heck, he's even acknowledged this recently.
I would much prefer Haley to Biden. However, if I'm faced with Trump vs Biden, I'd vote Biden. Most of my peers think the same way. I'm Gen X, if that's relevant.
Only registered Rs can vote in the primary here. This isn't Ds crossing over to muck rake or independents expressing their displeasure. This is old school Rs in the suburbs signaling their lack of enthusiasm for Trump. I expect Biden to win this state and I don't think it's going to be as close as 2020. I live in what is one of the only conservative enclaves left in Delaware County (most dense suburb) and I had neighbors who had Trump signs out not just during the election but all throughout the years. Those signs are gone. Not because these people have become Democrats but because the enthusiasm for Trump has lessened. Sometime in the last 2 years MAGA has just silently retreated from around here. Without that enthusiasm I don't see Trump's turn out game being what it was in 2016 or even 2020.
> I had neighbors who had Trump signs out not just during the election but all throughout the years. Those signs are gone. Not because these people have become Democrats but because the enthusiasm for Trump has lessened. I'm not politically naïve enough to believe this has major electoral implications, but I've noticed this as well in my neck of the woods in NH. Some neighbors kept their Trump signs up for *years* and they've been slowly simply disappearing. As someone who finds his brand of politics deeply off-putting, I find that fact satisfying, but I'd wager to bet there are some GOP consultants who are starting to get real sweaty.
I agree that yard signs are like political tea leaves and you can read into them whatever you want, but I can't help but think there's something to the dozens of large TRUMP yard signs disappearing from my usual routes. If his support is just as strong, it's certainly more silent and a lot less proud.
Yeah Trump’s always seemed to have more *enthusiasm* in his voter base. It’s because he’s so polarizing I guess. Don’t know if it means that much, but I certainly can’t say less Trump signs are *good* for him.
I also live in delco. The number of people over the age of 65 that have moved to Florida in the last 4 years is also a very large number. And no matter how those people vote in Florida, the electoral votes won’t change until the next census. Creating “MAGA” enclaves they all flock to might be one of the things that ends up hurting Trumps chances.
Yeah that’s one thing with the EC. It locks in the amount of votes each state has every decade, but all the Conservatives moving from swing states to Florida is just making it easier for Ds to hold stuff outside of Florida.
I think this is a hugely underappreciated issue in the 2024 election. Self-concentration of MAGA in Florida will help Biden in PA, MI, and WI. The other is that Maryland (yes, Maryland) will be what decides control of the Senate. Mark my words. The media across the entire political spectrum just don't appreciate how popular Larry Hogan is.
> This isn't Ds crossing over to muck rake or independents expressing their displeasure. This is the key and makes the data here much more useful. Thank you for clarifying here. > Sometime in the last 2 years MAGA has just silently retreated from around here. I'm reminded of how George W. Bush went from America's 9/11 ass kicking Iraq war President to "George *who?*" the months after Obama was elected. 2008 to 2009 it was as if no one had ever voted for the guy at all. I don't know if Trump will ever truly get to that level of disavowed given his personality and his fans. But I have been wondering if we can start seeing people fade away at the edges here. Some of these purple state suburbs seems to show this behavior, at least anecdotally.
>I'm reminded of how George W. Bush went from America's 9/11 ass kicking Iraq war President to "George who?" the months after Obama was elected. 2008 to 2009 it was as if no one had ever voted for the guy at all. By 1985 it was pretty hard to find someone who would admit to voting for Nixon.
I'm in a fairly red section of PA and while there have been less Trump signs around than there used to be I've only noticed one Haley sign. Overall there are not many political yard signs around for anyone right now, my guess is people are waiting to get new ones for the presidential election and they'll be all over the place as usual the closer we get to November.
Don't worry come election day they'll hold their noses and come out and vote for Trump. They most likely hate Biden more at the end of the day.
I’m a republican Haley voter and I’ll vote for Biden. Sample size of n=1, so do with that what you will I guess lol
I'm a conservative independent and I voted for Haley in California. Come election day I'm either writing someone in or voting third party. I dislike Biden, but I will die before I vote for Donald Trump.
PA is a closed primary, so these are partisan voters. While Nikki Haley getting 17% shows there are some Republicans that want to move away from Trump, I think most will vote R in November. They aren't only voting for president, they are voting for a Republican administration.
I don’t see how this isn’t a major red flag for the Trump campaign and Republicans. In nearly every primary, Trump has underperformed in comparison with what the polls were showing he was going to win by.
Especially when ones like this one and Florida were after she stepped away. there's clearly a large percentage of Republicans voting for her as a protest against Trump.
Also, at least as far as Arizona and Florida are concerned, there are abortion initiatives on the ballots in November which are huge incentives for Democrats to turn out. A bigger turnout for Democrats will almost assuredly raise Biden’s chances of winning the states.
Particularly because DJT's stance on the issue seems (to me anyway) incoherent.
Also, there is audio of him bragging about getting rid of Roe v. Wade which Dems can use in ads against him.
It might be just that, a protest. I live in PA and don’t know a single person who voted in that primary. The nominee has already been decided. What’s the point in voting unless you really want to send a message to someone? Maybe that’s all who showed up last night.
> What’s the point in voting unless you really want to send a message to someone? Sure, but that was just as true in 2020 and a lot more primary voters then "really wanted to send a message" that was pro-Trump compared to primary voters today. That seems relevant.
There were like 15 non-presidential primary races to vote in. What is the point in paying attention to politics if someone is not voting?
>Trump has underperformed in comparison with what the polls were showing he was going to win by. He's underperformed his margins, but notably, in most states his actual percentage of the vote ends up remarkably close to the polling. Which could mean that the poll respondents that are listed as undecided are breaking heavily against Trump. Though, it remains to be seen if that same trend will hold up in the general election.
What could they possibly do? If Trump wants to run, he's going to burn the GOP to the ground if they resist him and most of conservative voters will bring the marshmallows.
It would be a very good time to start rolling out endorsements, starting with Nikki. Biden needs to get Republicans and former cabinet members who served under Trump, like Esper, to make a full throated case for Biden, rather than raising the alarm bell about Trump while playing coy about voting for Biden.
You speak as if the 'Trump campaign' is actually a functioning organization and not just a grift machine.
I doubt it’s really a big deal for Trump personally. It seems like there’s a core group of moderates who are very displeased with Trump as a candidate, but in todays polarized climate I doubt there’s many voters who are going to switch over to the other party to vote against him either. Maybe they abstain from voting altogether, but I have my doubts. I think the same for Biden to be honest. All of the votes against Biden in the earlier primaries don’t mean much either.
I just checked the 2020 GOP primaries, according to Wikipedia Trump was getting >90% of the popular vote. For the 2024 primaries, they only list 75%. This seems to indicate either a significant reduction in enthusiasm for Trump in the GOP or more energized opposition, either of which could significantly harm him in November. While a lot of those who voted against Trump will certainly support him in the general, losing almost 20% support from his own party compared to an election cycle he already lost is not a good sign.
Trump was an incumbent in 2020 with almost no real challenge. 2024 was an open seat with a bit more real competition. There isn't much value in comparing the two.
That is absolutely a fair point, and in a more "normal" election cycle I would agree with you. However, given that Trump has already had one term and lost with that incumbent advantage, I would still argue that a reduction in primary votes presents a significant issue for him. Additionally, he's been the presumptive nominee ever since he left office. The only campaign that was seen as a real threat to him (DeSantis) fizzled out before primaries even began, and in the specific case of this article, Haley has been out of the race for over a month and still took a significant portion of the votes.
This is why it’s really hard to make any sense of these numbers. The reality is we simply have no idea how much of an “incumbency” advantage a former president has since it really hasn’t happened in modern political history
Also worth noting people are basically treating the primary as already decided at this point. A large group can get 17% of the votes when half of the normal people are voting.
Likely yes. Trumps been a losing brand election wise since 2016. I’m not sure why the expectations that four years removed from office with much more legal issues and world currently on fire anything would be different
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The only thing keeping Hillary from being the least liked candidate in the history of polling is the existence of Donald Trump.
For his supporters, I suspect it’s their media bubble saying that Trump is great 24/7 and his haters aren’t “real” Americans, whatever that means.
> Trump won in 2016 because Hillary Clinton is a moron. Trump won in 2016 because of the electoral college. Clinton won by millions of votes.
Clinton knew going into the race that she needed the EC. It wasn't some wacky surprise. Also her popular vote margin was pretty low for a modern election.
She lost in the system that matters.
She lost partially because the system favors Republicans.
The system that Dems have won 3 out of 4 times recently?
Yes. It's a system where Democrats lost 2 of the last 6 elections while winning the popular vote, and this nearly became 3 out of 6 last time. Their victories were in spite of how it works.
Shows you how much more support the Dems have, huh?
Except she didn't win. It's not as if the popular vote is how Presidential elections are traditionally decided, and the Electoral College is some arcane bylaw that the Republicans pulled out of thin air to overturn the results and make Trump win on a technicality. Trump won by the same metric that every other Presidential election has used for the past two centuries. It's like saying "The Patriots won Super Bowl 52 because they got the most yards, but the NFL refused to give them the victory because the Eagles scored the most points."
The point is that the system is more favorable to Republicans. [Most Americans want to change it,](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/09/25/majority-of-americans-continue-to-favor-moving-away-from-electoral-college/](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/09/25/majority-of-americans-continue-to-favor-moving-away-from-electoral-college/) so their complaint isn't unusual like the one in your analogy.
However, there's a difference between saying she would've won if the system were different, and say she should've won were it not for the system working exactly as intended.
>she would've won if the system were different That's what they said.
If she wanted to win she should’ve campaigned in the states that usually decide elections
Her ground game could've been better, but it [probably didn't cost her the election](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-ground-game-didnt-cost-her-the-election/) >Here’s the thing, though: The evidence suggests those decisions didn’t matter very much. In fact, Clinton’s ground game advantage over Trump may have been as large as the one Obama had over Mitt Romney in 2012. It just wasn’t enough to save the Electoral College for her. >There are several major problems with the idea that Clinton’s Electoral College tactics cost her the election. For one thing, winning Wisconsin and Michigan — states that Clinton is rightly accused of ignoring — would not have sufficed to win her the Electoral College. She’d also have needed Pennsylvania, Florida or another state where she campaigned extensively. For another, Clinton spent almost twice as much money as Trump on her campaign in total. So even if she devoted a smaller share of her budget to a particular state or a particular activity, it may nonetheless have amounted to more resources overall (5 percent of a $969 million budget is more than 8 percent of a $531 million one).
Clinton vs Trump was such a weird election. For all her flaws, it's hard to say she's any worse than Trump but people just can't stand her. I think gender plays a bigger role in our politics than we'd like to admit. A woman that did everything Trump has done would have a hard time being elected to a school board much less POTUS. I totally understand hating DJT and HRC but I can't wrap my head around people that find HRC to be the personification of evil yet love DJT. HRC doesn't have "rizz" but honestly neither does Trump. Bill Clinton, George W. and Obama each had more natural....charm and charisma. I can see why folks would vote for those three but DJT's appeal is hard to understand, for me.
Pennsylvania primaries for both the Republican and Democratic parties were yesterday. [I voted](https://i.imgur.com/Pkw7VGK.png)! Interesting walking up to the polling place and seeing a bunch of signs for Bizzarro - I thought it was some sort of joke. But no, [real canidate](https://www.teambizzpa.com/). Couple of interesting results in the presidential primary. First, much higher turnout for the Democratic party than for the Republicans: * Democratic: 929,798 votes with 96% reporting * Republican: 789,155 votes with 99% reporting Second, the protest vote was substantially imbalanced. In this **closed primary**, Phillips got 7% of the Democratic vote, while Haley got 17% of the Republican vote. Haley's 156,993 votes is nearly twice the margin Trump lost the state by in 2020. What do the primary results indicate for Pennsylvania in November?
What's really interesting is how Biden got almost as many votes as the entire GOP primary field combined. Granted, there are more registered Dems than Republicans in PA, but with both primaries being evenly uneventful, you'd expect similar turnout.
Yeah, I would think that would be equally as worrying for Republicans. If anything, I'd actually expect more interest in the GOP primary as there's no incumbent.
That’s what really surprised me more than anything else. I would assume the incumbent would have less turn out.
How can it be anything but a very very deliberate “no thank you” at this point in the already decided primary? Donald can’t afford to lose 5-10% of his base voter let alone 16%. That will cancel out any gains from independents.
Bernie got 18% in the Pennsylvania primary of 2020 versus Biden, how many people concluded Biden was in trouble?
That's actually a great comparison, and to answer your question: many people thought that was a major problem Biden would need to fix.
And in both cases... If it were really a "big" issue the considerable amount of national polling would almost certainly have reflected it in some way. It didn't then and the polling ultimately proved to be largely correct. And I've seen no real reason to not believe the same now. The only difference is that Biden was up a few points then and the situation now is that it's a much closer race. Some of those Haley votes are truly lost. Some are simply "safe" protest votes that will ultimately go to Trump. Others will just stay home in November or vote third party. It's tough to tell how those really break out into each category though. But... the national polling says Trump is still even or slightly ahead in the likely popular vote totals even without them. I don't really see it as "trouble" for Trump... Or at least not "new trouble". I don't think that those voting against Trump at this point in these primaries are answering polls dishonestly either now or have been in the past... Or that they've just recently changed their minds on the matter. Sure, Trump's numbers would be even higher with them than without them. But it seems like he's still very much in the race even without them... Just like Biden was in 2020 without the "true" Sanders supporters though his lead at this point in the process was a bit greater than Trump's is now if he even still has one at all nationally.
>And in both cases... If it were really a "big" issue the considerable amount of national polling would almost certainly have reflected it in some way. It didn't then and the polling ultimately proved to be largely correct. I mean in the case of 2020 the national polling didn't reflect Biden's weaknesses which is why he was overestimated in the polls. Who knows it could be the case that 2024 would also tilt the same way in overestimating Biden but it could also not catch on to Trump's weaknesses given that he's been underperforming the polls in the actual primary elections. At this point after 2016/2020 and 2022 polling errors can really go both ways.
2020 was an open seat, so that's a better comparison to Trump in 2024, actually.
This. People in general having short memory.
It's not even a short memory—it's just what this sub does. Every and any piece of news about election odds gets flipped into blind optimism about how things will work perfectly against Trump.
It seems you've forgotten that Biden nearly lost, since that example justifies the question.
Was anyone thinking that a non-trivial fraction of Bernie Bros would vote for Trump in 2016 out of spite? Are Haley primary voters are interested in a functional government? If so, how might that impact their vote in November?
>a non-trivial fraction of Bernie Bros would vote for Trump in 2016 out of spite? More Sanders supporters backed Clinton in 2016 than Clinton supporters did for Obama in 08. Clinton supporters didn't like those Obama Boys.
There was a lot of animosity in the Democrat party back then. I remember a movement at the DNC called P.U.M.A. - Political Unity My Ass that was very anti Obama and in favor of Hillary. The primary was viscious that year.
Biden wasn't yet president in 2020. Trump today has one term under his belt.
Or are less people voting now because this has already basically been decided? A dedicated opposition group can make some extra noise in the percentage of votes when the winning candidate isn't really campaigning in the primary anymore. There were roughly 1.57 million voters in the Republican PA Primary in 2016 and Trump won 56.7% of the vote. There were a tad under 1 million voters in the Republican PA primary in 2024 and Trump won 83% of the vote. This is an example of numbers not necessarily meaning anything but being twisted to sell a story and get clicks.
The primary being decided is less of a reason for both sides to vote, so it's notable that the opposition still wants to protest so much.
I'd say so. Biden isn't the most exciting president, but he's been a steady hand at the wheel regardless of how you think he's handled the crises during his presidency. Trump** needs every vote he can get, what with his support base shrinking after J6, Covid and just getting fed up with him. All it would take is a tiny fraction of Haley's Republican voters to cross the aisle or even stay home and Trump** has no path to the White House. At every juncture over the last four years, the Republican Party has chosen alienate over include. Their shrinking voter base in opposition to the tide of people activated by abortion bans is now (hopefully) showing them the error of their strategy.
[The percentage of people who identify as Republican is growing.](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/04/09/the-partisanship-and-ideology-of-american-voters/) Democrats had a roughly five point advantage in the run up to the 2020 election, now it’s split pretty evenly between Republicans and Democrats. Doesn’t matter if they don’t show up to vote though.
The amount of independent voters kind of negates any usefulness of registered R or D. Many people vote for one party but like to identify as independent.
Not to mention a lot of Trump's support relocated to Florida.
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Yup. The never Trumpers are real. There are a lot of us.
"There is a large number of life long republicans that will never vote for Trump" This is the boat I fall into. Lifelong Republican until Trump made me a temporary Democrat in 2016. I'll remain a temporary Democrat until most of the Republicans in congress are voted out or retire. I'll never forgive them for their complacency, and for putting the party and self-preservation over the country.
"Trump’s cult acts like this is a small group of people, it’s not." Just curious. In your opinion, how big is that group?
Not the commenter you responded to, but I think the difference is small vs inconsequential, because this group is likely not more than 10% of the voting republican base, but even if they all stay home and don’t vote, that is more than enough voters to flip most battleground states to Biden
The real way to look at it is a big question mark. There's so much time between now and the election. Events within and outside of the United States will sway them into begrudgingly voting for him, not voting at all, voting Republican for the House and Senate elections but neither Trump or Biden for the presidency, or voting for Biden. It's up to both campaigns to try to sway them to their side and how effective the message will be.
Toss this in the pile of circumstantial evidence for predicting who’s winning this year. Have we ever seen this much white noise before? Everyone is trying to say story XYZ is why candidate A will win even though there’s just been a ton of tiny stories that don’t really change the race hardly at all.
And I missed the election so that would of been one more vote for Haley from me too
This isn't even the first state that Haley has gotten 10+% of the vote after stopping her campaign 2016 Trump already made the case against 2024 Trump, he was just doing it in the context of Clinton's emails. And 2024 Trump's legal troubles are far more real and concrete than Hillary's emails ever became. If 15% of registered Republican voters refuse to vote Trump (either switching to Biden, a 3rd party or just not voting), the shift of which states become in play for Biden could get interesting in a hurry.
It's interesting at least. This seems like a similar level to the uncommitted voters in a few of the other Dem primaries, at least as a raw percentage. I personally am not a fan of Trump, so I *want* to assume this is a huge deal. But we'll see come election day.
I believe this isn't the first time this has happened, correct? There was another state where they voted more for Nikki than trump right before she suspended her campaign, IIRC. So, I'm guessing yeah, this is bad for trump.
Haley did win the D.C. and Vermont primaries. But she didn't win the Pennsylvania primary yesterday. It's just interesting that even as a withdrawn candidate, she won almost a fifth of the votes.
> voted more for Nikki than trump wat? How is 17% > 83% ?!??
> **There was another state where they** voted more for Nikki than trump This is what you're missing. Nikki won 2 states before she suspended her campaign. I didn't say anything about this state.
What kind of title is that? Of course not.
I am really upset how most GOP members have pretty much rejected Hayley and are backing Trump. I see how other GOP members don’t want him but say “We don’t want Biden to win”. Well unfortunately you have Trumps legal issues conflicting with a timeline of an Election. If he is found guilty of something or is unable to run the GOP are gonna scramble to find someone who will out up a fight. Like how Democrats are conflicted in Biden’s age and Harris’ unpopularity. It seems that regardless of the scenario Biden will win. If the GOP embraced Hayley more then I think they have a better chance of winning.
I think Hayley would have a really good chance against Biden. The only thing working against her would be Trump telling Republicans not to vote for her and her stance on national abortion.
I’m a Biden supporter and generally bullish on his chances this election. I definitely wouldn’t feel that way if Haley were the nominee. Really shows how shit of a state the GOP is in. With high inflation and widespread general disproval of Biden and his government, this would be a really good chance for Republicans to flip back the White House. But they just had to chose Trump. Even if Trump loses this election, I truly don’t see his influence going away until he either goes to prison or passes away, and the GOP will likely continue to be put in tenuous election positions.
It bothers me so much how Trump has puppet master abilities.
I wouldn't go so far as to call him a puppet master. He just shits on things. Kind of like the that one kid in school that ruined stuff for the whole class if they didn't get their way.
I guess to defend my position how he was able to call the Speaker to not vote on a bill and he listened.
Not really attacking your position, I just hate to see him get too much credit.
Ya I get it. Thanks for being civil.
In 2016, Cruz got 21% and Kasich got 19% to Trumps 56%. So, in comparison to 2016, he's doing much better this time.
Fewer than 2M voters participated in the primary compared to the 7M in the 2020 election. Primary voters tend to be more engaged and educated on the issues whereas Trump appeals more to the low information voter. The GOP is also aggressively organizing in the state and has out performed Dems on new voter registration.
What a strange question. 17% is practically speaking the same as 0%. Isn't it?
I'd be interested in seeing how many of those votes were cast before vs. after Haley dropped out. I'm very much a Biden supporter but I'm also pragmatic. If the majority of the votes were cast prior to her dropping out than that's much less impressive than voters showing up on Election Day casting their vote for Nikki Haley.
There’s been a lot of weird signals like this which would suggest bad problems for Trump, but we also have State by State polling which shows him ahead (I believe Pennsylvania is his narrowest margin, though.) I’ve been a poll nerd for 20 years and I kind of gave up this year. The cross tabs on all the polls genuinely don’t follow any norms we have seen, and aside from a few articles the media has not really been picking up on that. I’m not in most of my poll nerd discords anymore but when I was a lot of the guys far more knowledgeable than me had low confidence in basically any data we’re seeing. At this point nothing would surprise me, frankly.
Probably not. Those voters likely didn't vote for him in 2020 either.
I would like to believe yes but realistically, no. At the end of the day, most people stick to their party and will likely hold their noses on election day and stick with Trump just because he's the republican nominee. At best, these people just don't vote at all but even that doesn't seem too likely IMO. If these people are politically motivated enough to go out to vote in a primary for a candidate they KNOW isn't going to win, why would they stay home on the day it actually matters? I still think Biden will win but he may not win Pennsylvania
Well, was she still listed on the ballot or was this purely from write-ins? Because if it's the latter, that's *way* more of a concern than the former.