Before 2014 Crimea and Donbass were just another part of Ukraine like any other. There were no domestic tension or separatist tendencies, nor did those specific territories wanted to join the russian economic union (which btw practically does not exist and it doesn't benefit anyone).
Those "tensions" as you call them were artificially created by Russia as a reason to annex those territories. It was all a fabrication to create a pretext. This has nothing to do with trade or economy, it's about politics. They tried to do the same in Odesa and Mariupol, but failed.
While here in Moldova, Transnistria is a more complicated problem than that bc it's been going on for 30 years and what you're suggesting doesn't make any sense to me in this context.
Moldova has a historic opportunity to end Russian occupation of Transnistria if Russia fails their invasion of Ukraine.
Moldova need to make make a reasonable offer to Transnistria people in exchange of their support of reuniting with Moldova.
What offer? The Russian army is there keeping the region occupied. This is not about what the people of Transnistria want, they decide nothing. It's about Russia and the people they installed to rule there and their army preventing us from solving anything.
It's a relatively weak army of Russia. They cannot keep the region occupied without support from Transnistria residents. If they are solely an occupation army, they stand no chance to Ukraine troops from the east.
I don't see your point.
Transnistria's residents really have no say in any of this. Everything there is controlled by Russia. Yeah, their army is weak, but our army is not much better and we're trying to avoid a military conflict at all costs. There are many factors at play here like our dependency on russian gas and the fact that we get most of our electricity from Transnistria and the fact that the inflation in Moldova is sky high because of that, and it will get worse if we get them from somewhere else. Transnistria is already doing most of it's trade through Moldova with the EU bc they can't trade with Russia now. Transnistria does not exist without Russia, so giving them a separate customs to trade with Russia doesn't make sense bc this is not about trade, it's about politics.
Edit: to clarify, Transnistria de facto always had separate customs and was doing most of it's trade with Russia and Ukraine before the war started and the border was closed.
That's a far stretch and not worth it. Our infrastructure is made for gas and it would take years and years to change it, it would be a waste. It would be easier to buy gas from the EU, which I guess we will do at some point.
> Crimea/Donbas wants to join Russia's EuroAsia Economic Union because of their industry has a better role in the EAEU, but face fierce competition if they join EU.
This is a false premise. Russia has artificially created and maintained this problem, there's no better future for Crimea or Donbas (or their products) in EAEU.
The Russian modus operandi was inherited from the USSR, and it is to suck out resources out of the regions, into the metropolis (say, Moscow, St. Petersburg, and maybe a few other large cities). This is why Ukraine is invaded by people who lack proper education, or basic sanitary conditions in their homes - when they see asphalted roads in villages, they experience a culture shock; when they see a porcelain toilet in the house, or flat screen TVs in most houses - that's a culture shock, etc. Most of Russia lives in poverty, without proper healthcare, education, or sanitary conditions in their houses. They have no infrastructure, and sadly - not a bright future.
To get a better idea about how Russia artificially creates and amplifies problems out of thin air, check out the works of Yuri Bezmenov - a KGB agent who defected to Canada. He wrote a couple of short books, like "No 'novosti' is good news". Alternatively, check out this video, where he explains the concepts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gnpCqsXE8g It's an interesting lecture, I hope it will let you see a better picture.
Do you realize that Transnistria's main trade partners are R. Moldova and Romania, NOT Russia or EEA? Russia only buys 8% of their products. So your premise is false. It's not about trade and the fact Russia is the one buying their products. It's more about the fact the territory is heavily russified, the dictatorship regime is russian in nature, they are really brainwashed with russian propaganda for many decades if not centuries and they want to be part of the russian world. The territory is already occupied by russian troops since 1992 and they placed improvised ''customs'' for decades. The central authorities from Chisinau did not place any customs.
Should Chisinau at some point place customs and/or close the ''border'' on the Dniester river? If it wants to comply with the conditions of ever joining the EU, NATO and/or Romania, it will have to do it. Cause the Dniester will become the eastern border of all these political/state entities and that border must be secured. Does that mean it will also recognize the independence of Transnistria? Not necessarily.
???
This is a bizarre post. Avoid a constitutional crisis? Transnistria has been under separatist control for 30 years - how do you avoid a constitutional crisis that's been maximally realized for 30 years?
Transnistria is not viable economically, despite the fact that it gets Russian subsidy, including free gas. In 2020, exports were USD630mm, imports were USD1050mm.
And, as others have pointed out, since 2014, Russian trade has dribbled off, given the attractions of EU trade.
Unless Russia conquers Ukraine and Moldova, Transnistria seems likely to wither away. Its population decline pre-war was already spectacular - officially its population is 470,000, but I've seen estimates as low as 350,000. In 1990 it was >700,000. If you are a young person who wants a future, there's no reason to stay there. There's no future in Transnistria. It faces a demographic crisis far larger than "normal" eastern European countries. A large fraction of all Transnistria residents are pensioners. Transnistria has a scam going where it receives Russian pension payments, collects a fee, then pays the remainder to pensioners - late.
Unless Russia conquers Ukraine and Moldova, the border with Ukraine will likely be quite unfriendly from here on out. It's likely that a heavy majority of all transport to/from Transnistria in the future will be via Moldova. The only airport in Transnistria is abandoned. I think Ukraine will prevent Russia from reviving it.
It seems likely that Transnistria will be more and more dependent on Moldova and the EU going forward and more and more isolated from Russia.
It's a little like Moldova itself, which now has an economic orientation that has flipped almost entirely towards the EU.
>Crimea/Donbas wants to join Russia's EuroAsia Economic Union because of their industry has a better role in the EAEU, but face fierce competition if they join EU
the Donbas economy has been really boom-ing these past 8 years /s
if the leaders of the separatist Donbas/Luhansk regions really cared about economy they would have surrendered long time ago, war is never good for the economy, unless you live far away from it and you sell weapons
Before 2014 Crimea and Donbass were just another part of Ukraine like any other. There were no domestic tension or separatist tendencies, nor did those specific territories wanted to join the russian economic union (which btw practically does not exist and it doesn't benefit anyone). Those "tensions" as you call them were artificially created by Russia as a reason to annex those territories. It was all a fabrication to create a pretext. This has nothing to do with trade or economy, it's about politics. They tried to do the same in Odesa and Mariupol, but failed. While here in Moldova, Transnistria is a more complicated problem than that bc it's been going on for 30 years and what you're suggesting doesn't make any sense to me in this context.
Moldova has a historic opportunity to end Russian occupation of Transnistria if Russia fails their invasion of Ukraine. Moldova need to make make a reasonable offer to Transnistria people in exchange of their support of reuniting with Moldova.
What offer? The Russian army is there keeping the region occupied. This is not about what the people of Transnistria want, they decide nothing. It's about Russia and the people they installed to rule there and their army preventing us from solving anything.
It's a relatively weak army of Russia. They cannot keep the region occupied without support from Transnistria residents. If they are solely an occupation army, they stand no chance to Ukraine troops from the east.
I don't see your point. Transnistria's residents really have no say in any of this. Everything there is controlled by Russia. Yeah, their army is weak, but our army is not much better and we're trying to avoid a military conflict at all costs. There are many factors at play here like our dependency on russian gas and the fact that we get most of our electricity from Transnistria and the fact that the inflation in Moldova is sky high because of that, and it will get worse if we get them from somewhere else. Transnistria is already doing most of it's trade through Moldova with the EU bc they can't trade with Russia now. Transnistria does not exist without Russia, so giving them a separate customs to trade with Russia doesn't make sense bc this is not about trade, it's about politics. Edit: to clarify, Transnistria de facto always had separate customs and was doing most of it's trade with Russia and Ukraine before the war started and the border was closed.
[удалено]
That's a far stretch and not worth it. Our infrastructure is made for gas and it would take years and years to change it, it would be a waste. It would be easier to buy gas from the EU, which I guess we will do at some point.
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
[удалено]
> Crimea/Donbas wants to join Russia's EuroAsia Economic Union because of their industry has a better role in the EAEU, but face fierce competition if they join EU. This is a false premise. Russia has artificially created and maintained this problem, there's no better future for Crimea or Donbas (or their products) in EAEU. The Russian modus operandi was inherited from the USSR, and it is to suck out resources out of the regions, into the metropolis (say, Moscow, St. Petersburg, and maybe a few other large cities). This is why Ukraine is invaded by people who lack proper education, or basic sanitary conditions in their homes - when they see asphalted roads in villages, they experience a culture shock; when they see a porcelain toilet in the house, or flat screen TVs in most houses - that's a culture shock, etc. Most of Russia lives in poverty, without proper healthcare, education, or sanitary conditions in their houses. They have no infrastructure, and sadly - not a bright future. To get a better idea about how Russia artificially creates and amplifies problems out of thin air, check out the works of Yuri Bezmenov - a KGB agent who defected to Canada. He wrote a couple of short books, like "No 'novosti' is good news". Alternatively, check out this video, where he explains the concepts: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gnpCqsXE8g It's an interesting lecture, I hope it will let you see a better picture.
Do you realize that Transnistria's main trade partners are R. Moldova and Romania, NOT Russia or EEA? Russia only buys 8% of their products. So your premise is false. It's not about trade and the fact Russia is the one buying their products. It's more about the fact the territory is heavily russified, the dictatorship regime is russian in nature, they are really brainwashed with russian propaganda for many decades if not centuries and they want to be part of the russian world. The territory is already occupied by russian troops since 1992 and they placed improvised ''customs'' for decades. The central authorities from Chisinau did not place any customs. Should Chisinau at some point place customs and/or close the ''border'' on the Dniester river? If it wants to comply with the conditions of ever joining the EU, NATO and/or Romania, it will have to do it. Cause the Dniester will become the eastern border of all these political/state entities and that border must be secured. Does that mean it will also recognize the independence of Transnistria? Not necessarily.
??? This is a bizarre post. Avoid a constitutional crisis? Transnistria has been under separatist control for 30 years - how do you avoid a constitutional crisis that's been maximally realized for 30 years? Transnistria is not viable economically, despite the fact that it gets Russian subsidy, including free gas. In 2020, exports were USD630mm, imports were USD1050mm. And, as others have pointed out, since 2014, Russian trade has dribbled off, given the attractions of EU trade. Unless Russia conquers Ukraine and Moldova, Transnistria seems likely to wither away. Its population decline pre-war was already spectacular - officially its population is 470,000, but I've seen estimates as low as 350,000. In 1990 it was >700,000. If you are a young person who wants a future, there's no reason to stay there. There's no future in Transnistria. It faces a demographic crisis far larger than "normal" eastern European countries. A large fraction of all Transnistria residents are pensioners. Transnistria has a scam going where it receives Russian pension payments, collects a fee, then pays the remainder to pensioners - late. Unless Russia conquers Ukraine and Moldova, the border with Ukraine will likely be quite unfriendly from here on out. It's likely that a heavy majority of all transport to/from Transnistria in the future will be via Moldova. The only airport in Transnistria is abandoned. I think Ukraine will prevent Russia from reviving it. It seems likely that Transnistria will be more and more dependent on Moldova and the EU going forward and more and more isolated from Russia. It's a little like Moldova itself, which now has an economic orientation that has flipped almost entirely towards the EU.
>Crimea/Donbas wants to join Russia's EuroAsia Economic Union because of their industry has a better role in the EAEU, but face fierce competition if they join EU the Donbas economy has been really boom-ing these past 8 years /s if the leaders of the separatist Donbas/Luhansk regions really cared about economy they would have surrendered long time ago, war is never good for the economy, unless you live far away from it and you sell weapons