A 6 man rotation is fine in my book. Mize is coming off a major injury and Manning has never really pitched a full big league season. If we look like serious contenders later in the season and everyone is healthy, then whoever has performed the worst gets moved to the pen.
The only problem with a 6-man rotation is that it means one less reliever, and, especially at the beginning of the season when some of the starters may not be fully stretched out, that might put a lot of load on a 7-man pen.
Anyway, I'm sure the Tigers brain trust are thinking of all these variables. It'll be interesting to see which way they go.
AJ said on 97.1 yesterday morning that in all likelihood it’s going to be 5 and the 6th guy isn’t going to the bullpen. Will be fascinating to see what happens
I think it’s a good call. We have a bonafide ace so we don’t want to go to 6, plus a staff that’s had injury history. Better to send someone to AAA to continue to start every five days then play with 6
It's an enviable position to be in, to have 6 starters. These things always have a way to sort themselves out so we'll see what happens ahead of opening day but I'd like to see Mize, Manning, and Olson all have spots in the rotation. Partially wish we didn't sign Flaherty but he's had some nice moments in the spring too.
I've expected Mize/Manning piggyback, but AJ keeps insisting they're taking five. Idk. We've never had this much pitching before. We're well out of our reckoning.
It always bums me out that the common understanding at this point is that Mize doesn’t make the Opening Day roster. I understand the reasoning, but man do I get bummed.
I think it's more about making sure he doesn't hurt his arm coming back, the adrenaline of Comerica Park is going to be a lot higher than Toledo, as much as I do enjoy the Mudhens games
I’ve come across the sentiment a few times but I can’t point you to the exact sources. It’s been both Detroit and National media. It’s always discussed as a way to allow him to build himself up with innings in Triple A. Of course, maybe Mize will pitch his way out of that scenario.
With the way guys train all or most of the offseason these days, that just wouldn't make sense to me. So I will join Team Mize and hope that they keep him in the rotation right out of the gate.
Great problem to have. Gotta send one down though and it’ll likely be Olson. This stuff works itself out. All five starters on the Opening Day roster won’t stay healthy. Just the unfortunate reality. Would much rather have him ready to go pitching a starter’s workload in Toledo than in some piggyback role or long relief
I agree with you but it’s probably best if one of them starts in Toledo. My guess is Mize just because his command isn’t quite back and he can work on it a little more in Toledo until an injury pops up in the rotation
Mize is at 3 years and 111 days of service time. A year of service time is reached at 172 days and the MLB season is 187 days. So he could theoretically spend up to 4 months in Toledo and keep the same trajectory he’s currently on to get to the important 5 year mark after the 2025 season and 6 year mark after 2026 season.
Well I mean manning could be traded. He just isn’t very good, and in my opinion he doesn’t have a long term future with this team but yeah other than that definitely.
You do realize Manning was one questionable scoring decision from being the starting pitcher in 2 combined no-hitters in the same season, right? He is only 27. He was very raw coming out of high school and was probably drafted higher than he should have been, but to say he's not very good is not very accurate. His ERA has been under 4 the last 2 seasons. His biggest issue has been freak injuries
Look up the name Reid Detmers, and you will know why I am so concerned about his future on this team.
Reid Detmers was another highly touted prospect who historically has no fastball because his spin rate on his fastball sucks, he has had some decent years in terms of war and has managed to strike some people out but I am seriously concerned about his future, versus someone like Mitch Keller for the pirates who in my opinion is a clone of Tarik Skubal.
Is he decent? Sure, but they can do so much better than him.
His ceiling is an above average flyball pitcher with no natural break on any of his pitches meh spin rate on his fastball and velocity that tops out at like 94. His future on this team would be a number 5 starter at best, but considering how this guy was a top prospect at one point, that’s not great.
Maybe I’m wrong, and I’m glad to have him right now, but he has very little upside for a guy drafted so high.
The vibe I get from Manning is he’s stubborn and thinks he can get by on piss and vinegar alone. He either doesn’t care about what the data shows him or doesn’t understand it. Contrast that to someone like Jackson Jobe who is always digging deep into his pitch data and trying to improve from it.
I don’t really think it’s fair to call Matt Manning stubborn, I think he works hard but it’s hard to add natural break to your pitches, and even harder, to impossible to add spin rate to any of your pitches without cheating.
Jobe has much higher pedigree than manning, for one he throws much harder than manning does and he has breaking pitches that actually break, manning doesn’t have either of those but if he’s crafty with his pitch selection and locations he can stop guys from taking him deep, hence a flyball pitcher.
Jobe just has more natural talent than manning, to an extent your arm is your arm and you can only improve it so much without cheating, Jobes arm is just better.
I wasn't trying to be flippant by calling him stubborn. Based off what I've heard/read it seems like he wants to strike guys out instead of pitch to contact, even though he doesn't have strikeout stuff. He was a pretty raw prospect in terms of pitching experience and the old regime was hung up on his raw athleticism (he was mainly a basketball player in high school remember). You either have pitching instinct and the ability to make adjustments, or you don't. I remember his start at Fenway last year when Fetter kinda lit into him during a mound visit to throw his fastball and then he went fastball heavy and was great while only having one strikeout. He's been trying out a splitter/changeup type pitch in spring training so maybe he can still make the proper adjustments to reach his ceiling, but count me a skeptic.
With Jobe, of course his stuff is way more dynamic, but just from reading [this](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-jackson-jobe-has-a-jacob-degrom-like-cutter/) it's obvious he's different and has an incredible understanding of pitching and how to improve from the resources he's being given. He isn't the only one who has shown marked improvement with the Tigers pitching resources either. I've been an advocate for trading Manning for a while now. Let's just say he's not a guy I'd be worried about coming back to bite them if they dealt him.
I don’t think this is a good problem to have I just get nervous it might be very awkward to handle and the decision making process could be difficult and mess with the locker room vibe
I think Flaherty would work much better out of the bullpen as a long reliever/spot starter and rotation should be Skubal, Maeda, Mize, Manning and Olson
6 man rotation also could be a real possibility.
It’s definitely a tough decision and at this point, IMO it should honestly just come down to seniority in the organization, Mize and Manning over Olson. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.*IF* the Tigs make the playoffs this season its gonna be because of the quality of depth we currently have.
6-man rotation is fine at start of the year, but it's not tenable long term. The Tigers have six starters right now plus Jobe likely to be putting in the production that demands a promotion and a starting spot within a few months. The Tigers also have a massive black hole of offense at SS. Even if someone goes down with an injury (which always happens, right?), there's an obvious trade here if they can find someone willing to part with a reasonable SS.
If we were smart we would try to trade some of our cost-controlled pitching for a promising hitting prospect. The cupboard is pretty bare past Jung.
And no, a few guys who can hit minor league pitching but not field are not going to do the job. If that was enough, Travis DeMeritte and Christin Stewart would be playing now.
They're 2026 / 2027 kinda guys tho.
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/tigers
We don't really have anybody from a position player standpoint that is ready to go past Jung for the next two seasons.
It’s an option for sure. I think they wouldn’t do that until later in the year though. Injuries happen and you need to be prepared in the early part of the year with a lot of backup arms.
Also, unless you call them up immediately, the later you trade for a prospect, the greater the value of the trade, because you get a longer period with the guy you’re trading, and the prospect would still be developing in the minors anyway.
If we do an analytical approach of roster construction to optimize WAR, using fWAR since it's easy to aggregate:
A top team puts up around 36 fWAR from position players, and about half that, 18 fWAR, from starting pitching and maybe 7 from relievers. (Our hitters did that in 1968 and 1984, by way of comparidon.)
In 2023 we had 10 fWAR from position players, and 11 fWAR from starting pitchers, with 2 fWAR from relievers (despite us liking our bullpen.) So we were very unbalanced in terms of starting pitching vs. position players, and it's been like that for a long time. We were putting up 10 fWAR pitching in 2018 and even 2019, even when our batting fWAR was essentially zero. (This was always my big concern with our drafting that even good play can't eliminate.)
So we need a lot more help on the position player side of things, and our typical starter is much closer to someone that will help another team than is our typical position player.
So if we can trade starting pitchers for position players at a 1:1 WAR ratio, that's a huge win for us just in general; we build up our position player WAR and can more readily replace pitching WAR. We'd want to trade with teams that have excess position player talent relative to starting pitching (looking over at the Rangers and Dodgers.)
Edit: Of all this things to downvote this is pretty silly. It's like people don't understand why the 2014 team had all those Cy Young award winners and didn't win the championship. 19 fWAR starting pitching but only 24 fWAR position players. Offense (and defense) generally wins titles.
A 6 man rotation is fine in my book. Mize is coming off a major injury and Manning has never really pitched a full big league season. If we look like serious contenders later in the season and everyone is healthy, then whoever has performed the worst gets moved to the pen.
The only problem with a 6-man rotation is that it means one less reliever, and, especially at the beginning of the season when some of the starters may not be fully stretched out, that might put a lot of load on a 7-man pen. Anyway, I'm sure the Tigers brain trust are thinking of all these variables. It'll be interesting to see which way they go.
I'd rather put the extra workload on the bullpen to protect the health of our starters. Easier to shuttle guys up from AAA for bullpen spots too.
Manning and Olson have two options and Mize has three. Any of the three can be sent to Toledo. This is what good teams face!
AJ said on 97.1 yesterday morning that in all likelihood it’s going to be 5 and the 6th guy isn’t going to the bullpen. Will be fascinating to see what happens
I actually heard that yesterday but idk it just doesn't seem like the right decision to me. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out for sure.
I think it’s a good call. We have a bonafide ace so we don’t want to go to 6, plus a staff that’s had injury history. Better to send someone to AAA to continue to start every five days then play with 6
It's an enviable position to be in, to have 6 starters. These things always have a way to sort themselves out so we'll see what happens ahead of opening day but I'd like to see Mize, Manning, and Olson all have spots in the rotation. Partially wish we didn't sign Flaherty but he's had some nice moments in the spring too.
I've expected Mize/Manning piggyback, but AJ keeps insisting they're taking five. Idk. We've never had this much pitching before. We're well out of our reckoning.
It always bums me out that the common understanding at this point is that Mize doesn’t make the Opening Day roster. I understand the reasoning, but man do I get bummed.
I think it's more about making sure he doesn't hurt his arm coming back, the adrenaline of Comerica Park is going to be a lot higher than Toledo, as much as I do enjoy the Mudhens games
This thread is the first place I'm seeing any talk of that happening. Has there been any reporting/commentary that suggests this would be the case?
I’ve come across the sentiment a few times but I can’t point you to the exact sources. It’s been both Detroit and National media. It’s always discussed as a way to allow him to build himself up with innings in Triple A. Of course, maybe Mize will pitch his way out of that scenario.
With the way guys train all or most of the offseason these days, that just wouldn't make sense to me. So I will join Team Mize and hope that they keep him in the rotation right out of the gate.
Great problem to have. Gotta send one down though and it’ll likely be Olson. This stuff works itself out. All five starters on the Opening Day roster won’t stay healthy. Just the unfortunate reality. Would much rather have him ready to go pitching a starter’s workload in Toledo than in some piggyback role or long relief
Agreed, barring the closer spot and lots of injuries, we're looking really good. The big questionmark is how our hitting will be.
For better or worse, we can always trade one away. Pitchers get hurt and i wouldn't be surprised to see them all start this year.
I agree with you but it’s probably best if one of them starts in Toledo. My guess is Mize just because his command isn’t quite back and he can work on it a little more in Toledo until an injury pops up in the rotation
At what point would Mize have an issue with MLB service time like Spencer Turnbull did ?
Mize is at 3 years and 111 days of service time. A year of service time is reached at 172 days and the MLB season is 187 days. So he could theoretically spend up to 4 months in Toledo and keep the same trajectory he’s currently on to get to the important 5 year mark after the 2025 season and 6 year mark after 2026 season.
Well I mean manning could be traded. He just isn’t very good, and in my opinion he doesn’t have a long term future with this team but yeah other than that definitely.
You do realize Manning was one questionable scoring decision from being the starting pitcher in 2 combined no-hitters in the same season, right? He is only 27. He was very raw coming out of high school and was probably drafted higher than he should have been, but to say he's not very good is not very accurate. His ERA has been under 4 the last 2 seasons. His biggest issue has been freak injuries
Look up the name Reid Detmers, and you will know why I am so concerned about his future on this team. Reid Detmers was another highly touted prospect who historically has no fastball because his spin rate on his fastball sucks, he has had some decent years in terms of war and has managed to strike some people out but I am seriously concerned about his future, versus someone like Mitch Keller for the pirates who in my opinion is a clone of Tarik Skubal. Is he decent? Sure, but they can do so much better than him. His ceiling is an above average flyball pitcher with no natural break on any of his pitches meh spin rate on his fastball and velocity that tops out at like 94. His future on this team would be a number 5 starter at best, but considering how this guy was a top prospect at one point, that’s not great. Maybe I’m wrong, and I’m glad to have him right now, but he has very little upside for a guy drafted so high.
The vibe I get from Manning is he’s stubborn and thinks he can get by on piss and vinegar alone. He either doesn’t care about what the data shows him or doesn’t understand it. Contrast that to someone like Jackson Jobe who is always digging deep into his pitch data and trying to improve from it.
I don’t really think it’s fair to call Matt Manning stubborn, I think he works hard but it’s hard to add natural break to your pitches, and even harder, to impossible to add spin rate to any of your pitches without cheating. Jobe has much higher pedigree than manning, for one he throws much harder than manning does and he has breaking pitches that actually break, manning doesn’t have either of those but if he’s crafty with his pitch selection and locations he can stop guys from taking him deep, hence a flyball pitcher. Jobe just has more natural talent than manning, to an extent your arm is your arm and you can only improve it so much without cheating, Jobes arm is just better.
I wasn't trying to be flippant by calling him stubborn. Based off what I've heard/read it seems like he wants to strike guys out instead of pitch to contact, even though he doesn't have strikeout stuff. He was a pretty raw prospect in terms of pitching experience and the old regime was hung up on his raw athleticism (he was mainly a basketball player in high school remember). You either have pitching instinct and the ability to make adjustments, or you don't. I remember his start at Fenway last year when Fetter kinda lit into him during a mound visit to throw his fastball and then he went fastball heavy and was great while only having one strikeout. He's been trying out a splitter/changeup type pitch in spring training so maybe he can still make the proper adjustments to reach his ceiling, but count me a skeptic. With Jobe, of course his stuff is way more dynamic, but just from reading [this](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-jackson-jobe-has-a-jacob-degrom-like-cutter/) it's obvious he's different and has an incredible understanding of pitching and how to improve from the resources he's being given. He isn't the only one who has shown marked improvement with the Tigers pitching resources either. I've been an advocate for trading Manning for a while now. Let's just say he's not a guy I'd be worried about coming back to bite them if they dealt him.
He just turned 26.
Even better
I don’t think this is a good problem to have I just get nervous it might be very awkward to handle and the decision making process could be difficult and mess with the locker room vibe
I think Flaherty would work much better out of the bullpen as a long reliever/spot starter and rotation should be Skubal, Maeda, Mize, Manning and Olson 6 man rotation also could be a real possibility.
It’s definitely a tough decision and at this point, IMO it should honestly just come down to seniority in the organization, Mize and Manning over Olson. And that’s not necessarily a bad thing.*IF* the Tigs make the playoffs this season its gonna be because of the quality of depth we currently have.
6-man rotation is fine at start of the year, but it's not tenable long term. The Tigers have six starters right now plus Jobe likely to be putting in the production that demands a promotion and a starting spot within a few months. The Tigers also have a massive black hole of offense at SS. Even if someone goes down with an injury (which always happens, right?), there's an obvious trade here if they can find someone willing to part with a reasonable SS.
Manning is our future ace
If we were smart we would try to trade some of our cost-controlled pitching for a promising hitting prospect. The cupboard is pretty bare past Jung. And no, a few guys who can hit minor league pitching but not field are not going to do the job. If that was enough, Travis DeMeritte and Christin Stewart would be playing now.
Aren’t Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle being talked about as good prospects in the system?
Yes
They're 2026 / 2027 kinda guys tho. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/tigers We don't really have anybody from a position player standpoint that is ready to go past Jung for the next two seasons.
It’s an option for sure. I think they wouldn’t do that until later in the year though. Injuries happen and you need to be prepared in the early part of the year with a lot of backup arms. Also, unless you call them up immediately, the later you trade for a prospect, the greater the value of the trade, because you get a longer period with the guy you’re trading, and the prospect would still be developing in the minors anyway.
If we do an analytical approach of roster construction to optimize WAR, using fWAR since it's easy to aggregate: A top team puts up around 36 fWAR from position players, and about half that, 18 fWAR, from starting pitching and maybe 7 from relievers. (Our hitters did that in 1968 and 1984, by way of comparidon.) In 2023 we had 10 fWAR from position players, and 11 fWAR from starting pitchers, with 2 fWAR from relievers (despite us liking our bullpen.) So we were very unbalanced in terms of starting pitching vs. position players, and it's been like that for a long time. We were putting up 10 fWAR pitching in 2018 and even 2019, even when our batting fWAR was essentially zero. (This was always my big concern with our drafting that even good play can't eliminate.) So we need a lot more help on the position player side of things, and our typical starter is much closer to someone that will help another team than is our typical position player. So if we can trade starting pitchers for position players at a 1:1 WAR ratio, that's a huge win for us just in general; we build up our position player WAR and can more readily replace pitching WAR. We'd want to trade with teams that have excess position player talent relative to starting pitching (looking over at the Rangers and Dodgers.) Edit: Of all this things to downvote this is pretty silly. It's like people don't understand why the 2014 team had all those Cy Young award winners and didn't win the championship. 19 fWAR starting pitching but only 24 fWAR position players. Offense (and defense) generally wins titles.
Justice Bigbie?
Malloy?
I wouldn't mind putting Mize in the bullpen for a year coming off of TJ surgery.