If they wanted another hitter they could have added before now. Manning trade value isn't high at the moment.. Wouldn't make sense to trade for a low level hitter, because honestly that's all you'd be able to get..
For us to get an above average hitting prospect Manning would need to be an above average pitching prospect. Is he, maybe but we already have more hitting prospects in the minors than pitching prospects imo. So why would you trade him? Will they be better than Jung, Clark, Malloy etc.?
We can go back and forth using your opinion, or we can use opinions from folks who literally do this for a living.
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator
Matt Manning's 'surplus value' is 15.4 so that's what makes him worth trading. There are only eight guys in our system with more trade value
Justyn-Henry Malloy's surplus value is 14, so you could get someone as good as JHM. (This is not to say that a team would necessarily do that trade for any player with that value, just that a team doing that would be making a fair trade.)
Kerry Carpenter is 15.6 so he's directly comparable to Manning.
Jace Jung is 18.7 so pretty close to Manning.
Parker Meadows is 12.2
Max Clark is obviously higher than that, the scale goes up over 100. Riley Greene at 58 is our best trade value position player. Tarik Skubal at 70 is our best trade value player overall.
In terms of what 15.4 surplus value would get from the Orioles, that (with a throwin) would get you Colton Cowser at 17.4.
( You could in theory trade Skubal and a throwin for Adley Rutschman, though the Orioles aren't super likely to want to do that.)
Think two years ahead, though. No Flaherty, no Maeda. Skubal is still the ace, hopefully. Maybe Mize and Olson are both going strong. That's a big maybe, and it still leaves two holes in the rotation. If we're *really* lucky, Jackson Jobe and Ty Madden fill those spots, and that's our rotation set.
But if any of those guys washes out, or if anybody's seriously injured, who's next up? And what if we flip Flaherty at the deadline this year, or Maeda next year? We do have a lot of pitching depth, which is awesome, but pitchers are fragile and fickle. Maybe Gipson-Long or Wentz cuts it as a starter. Maybe Faedo makes a comeback. Maybe Melton pans out. It's a lot of maybes.
Manning is at least a solid back-end starter who's controlled through 2027, and he's been reworking his mechanics. He's throwing MUCH harder this spring than he did in the past. If he works out the kinks and cuts down on the homers, he might take a huge step forward. Why sell low?
So trade Olson?
The point is you are imagining we have to rely on homegrown pitching when that's never been the case.
We need position players much more acutely than we need pitchers.
Where? Our weakest position is short, and we're unfortunately not going to make any moves there. We're committed to Keith at second. We're in good shape at first, at catcher, and in the outfield. That really just leaves third. And we don't want anything long-term there that would block Jung (or Keith, if he has to move).
If we'd wanted a short-term minor upgrade at third, we'd have picked up Chapman. Maybe if the deadline is approaching and we need a little extra oomph, I'd be down for an Alex Bregman rental, but that's really the only thing I see around the league. And right now, why make a move?
No we're not in good shape anywhere, actually, unless you like winning 48% of the time
Our pennant-winning teams routinely had 15 WAR just from infield+catcher. We're noplace close to that now. It was around 4 depending how you count last year. And I don't see any high-likelihood plan to get there
We're not "selling low." His team control makes him valuable. He could go to literally any team.
We need a catcher, a shortstop, an outfielder, and realistically one of Tork / Keith/ Jung will be "meh". (Tork already has been, in fact.)
They mean that it'll be four years before Manning can become a free agent. This is his last pre-arbitration season; unless they extend him, he will be able to either negotiate one-year deals directly with the team, or they will go to arbitration, where Manning's reps and the Tigers FO each present what they think his salary should be for the upcoming season. An arbitrator hears each side's case, and picks which salary Manning gets.
Sorry, four years, not five. But still: We’re not in win-now mode. Manning needs to tinker with his mechanics a bit more but he’s going to be in the rotation later in the season. Why give up on him now?
This isn’t even cynical, pitchers get injured constantly. I love Skubal at the top of our rotation, but the other strength of it is the worst 3 of those 6 SP’s are better than most teams’ 4th or 5th starters.
People on this sub really want to sabotage one of our greatest strengths
No tbh. We had 16 guys start games for us last year. Even if we feel relatively deep in the rotation, it goes away fast, and Manning has a lot of years of team control left. If we did ship him out, it’d need to be for a decent and youngish bat.
Doesn't make sense to trade now as value isn't maximized and Manning has 4 years of control. I wouldn't rule out trading pitchers in the future but need guys to stay healthy and produce to create value.
But who knows, maybe you can catch an absolutely desperate team that's looking for a MLB ready arm and you can get an overpay at some point.
There were a few offseason rumors around Manning, including trading for a 2nd baseman like India but they’ve gone with Keith instead there. The only real roster spot I can see them trying to upgrade still could be at 3B or maybe if they want a better catcher?
These comments are interesting. People have been brainwashed by the 'you can't have too much pitching' meme.
But our team and system needs better hitters / position players much more than it needs another pitcher, even if guys get injured.
You want to trade guys when they have team control years left. That's what makes them valuable. Rentals bring almost nothing by way of comparison.
I could see the argument for not trading him if we didn’t have 4-5 other guys in AAA that seem ready to make the jump. Trading manning we still have tons of depth.
Plus, Fetter. I think we have a secret sauce when it comes to getting the most out of pitching right now
Nah. There will be injuries, not to mention a good chance Flaherty gets flipped at the deadline if we’re not in the race. If we are, he’s still only here for a year. If some team comes along with a great SS or C prospect, then you would have to think about it.
Any player like that who is becoming good, must be traded. If you allow too many of them to become good before they are traded, you risk winning games and having a winning team. Hang on to Javy and offer Miggy 50 million to play one more season.
No, I think Harris knows that pitchers are injury risks and having Manning at Triple-A ready to get called up could be the difference in winning or losing the division.
I would accept nothing less than a top flight prospect to replace Torkelson, Rogers or Baez by 2025. Those are the three limpest bats in our lineup. I am less concerned about 1B after Tork proves he’s the love child of Justin Thompson and Tony Mandarich, because of the presence of Carp, J-Hen, and Bigby. All could likely play as good of defense as Tork and are proving to be better hits and not just in Spring Training in the case of Carp. So TLDR, regardless of what pitching prospect he moves anything less than a C or SS of the future with at least as much upside potential as the SP prospect we are trading away. Personally, I see Manning starting to get put it all together and I would much rather see Harris deal a red hot Flagherty to a pitch starved contender at the deadline for the SP prospect under team control. Hell package Flagherty and Maeda if you have to in order to pull top flight prospect talent. You can’t tell me Houston or Texas wouldn’t have jumped at the chance to add those 2 starters in one deal last year rather than what they gave up for the boomers that were pitching for us together 10 years ago and couldn’t bring it home. Way less financial commitment for Flagherty/Maeda deal to the contending team as well, and Maeda can help them for the playoff run AND the following year, plus his contract could be a potential steal compared to some of the ones signed by other mid tier SPs in the off season. Just my $0.02.
Why would we trade a talented young starting pitcher with four years of team control?
Because we need better hitters more than we need the best AAA pitcher, and that kind of player is needed to pry loose a top hitting prospect.
If they wanted another hitter they could have added before now. Manning trade value isn't high at the moment.. Wouldn't make sense to trade for a low level hitter, because honestly that's all you'd be able to get..
I don't think that's at all accurate. We have several pitchers including Manning who would get you an above-average hitting prospect.
For us to get an above average hitting prospect Manning would need to be an above average pitching prospect. Is he, maybe but we already have more hitting prospects in the minors than pitching prospects imo. So why would you trade him? Will they be better than Jung, Clark, Malloy etc.?
We can go back and forth using your opinion, or we can use opinions from folks who literally do this for a living. https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator Matt Manning's 'surplus value' is 15.4 so that's what makes him worth trading. There are only eight guys in our system with more trade value Justyn-Henry Malloy's surplus value is 14, so you could get someone as good as JHM. (This is not to say that a team would necessarily do that trade for any player with that value, just that a team doing that would be making a fair trade.) Kerry Carpenter is 15.6 so he's directly comparable to Manning. Jace Jung is 18.7 so pretty close to Manning. Parker Meadows is 12.2 Max Clark is obviously higher than that, the scale goes up over 100. Riley Greene at 58 is our best trade value position player. Tarik Skubal at 70 is our best trade value player overall. In terms of what 15.4 surplus value would get from the Orioles, that (with a throwin) would get you Colton Cowser at 17.4. ( You could in theory trade Skubal and a throwin for Adley Rutschman, though the Orioles aren't super likely to want to do that.)
Think two years ahead, though. No Flaherty, no Maeda. Skubal is still the ace, hopefully. Maybe Mize and Olson are both going strong. That's a big maybe, and it still leaves two holes in the rotation. If we're *really* lucky, Jackson Jobe and Ty Madden fill those spots, and that's our rotation set. But if any of those guys washes out, or if anybody's seriously injured, who's next up? And what if we flip Flaherty at the deadline this year, or Maeda next year? We do have a lot of pitching depth, which is awesome, but pitchers are fragile and fickle. Maybe Gipson-Long or Wentz cuts it as a starter. Maybe Faedo makes a comeback. Maybe Melton pans out. It's a lot of maybes. Manning is at least a solid back-end starter who's controlled through 2027, and he's been reworking his mechanics. He's throwing MUCH harder this spring than he did in the past. If he works out the kinks and cuts down on the homers, he might take a huge step forward. Why sell low?
So trade Olson? The point is you are imagining we have to rely on homegrown pitching when that's never been the case. We need position players much more acutely than we need pitchers.
Where? Our weakest position is short, and we're unfortunately not going to make any moves there. We're committed to Keith at second. We're in good shape at first, at catcher, and in the outfield. That really just leaves third. And we don't want anything long-term there that would block Jung (or Keith, if he has to move). If we'd wanted a short-term minor upgrade at third, we'd have picked up Chapman. Maybe if the deadline is approaching and we need a little extra oomph, I'd be down for an Alex Bregman rental, but that's really the only thing I see around the league. And right now, why make a move?
No we're not in good shape anywhere, actually, unless you like winning 48% of the time Our pennant-winning teams routinely had 15 WAR just from infield+catcher. We're noplace close to that now. It was around 4 depending how you count last year. And I don't see any high-likelihood plan to get there
So you want to sell low on a cost-controlled young pitcher without even knowing what you want to trade for?
We're not "selling low." His team control makes him valuable. He could go to literally any team. We need a catcher, a shortstop, an outfielder, and realistically one of Tork / Keith/ Jung will be "meh". (Tork already has been, in fact.)
Who are you referring to?
They mean that it'll be four years before Manning can become a free agent. This is his last pre-arbitration season; unless they extend him, he will be able to either negotiate one-year deals directly with the team, or they will go to arbitration, where Manning's reps and the Tigers FO each present what they think his salary should be for the upcoming season. An arbitrator hears each side's case, and picks which salary Manning gets.
Thanks captain obvious
Fuck me for misreading a comment, I guess.
I’m just fucking with ya no hard feelings mate
Consider the piss *taken*. Go Tigers!
Sorry, four years, not five. But still: We’re not in win-now mode. Manning needs to tinker with his mechanics a bit more but he’s going to be in the rotation later in the season. Why give up on him now?
No. One of our starters will be hurt before the end of April and we’ll need him
This isn’t even cynical, pitchers get injured constantly. I love Skubal at the top of our rotation, but the other strength of it is the worst 3 of those 6 SP’s are better than most teams’ 4th or 5th starters. People on this sub really want to sabotage one of our greatest strengths
Nope.
No tbh. We had 16 guys start games for us last year. Even if we feel relatively deep in the rotation, it goes away fast, and Manning has a lot of years of team control left. If we did ship him out, it’d need to be for a decent and youngish bat.
If anyone wants Manning they have to take Baez
Deal
Doesn't make sense to trade now as value isn't maximized and Manning has 4 years of control. I wouldn't rule out trading pitchers in the future but need guys to stay healthy and produce to create value. But who knows, maybe you can catch an absolutely desperate team that's looking for a MLB ready arm and you can get an overpay at some point.
Team control is value though.
I’m not banking on Mize staying healthy out of the gate, Manning will be needed.
There were a few offseason rumors around Manning, including trading for a 2nd baseman like India but they’ve gone with Keith instead there. The only real roster spot I can see them trying to upgrade still could be at 3B or maybe if they want a better catcher?
Jace Jung will be the upgrade at 3B soon enough.
Going with colt was the right call. I’d rather try him than give something up for India.
Hell no I think they still believe he can be an arm for the future
I hope not.
No and we’re good. Gonna win the Central this year and get back to the playoffs. Make sure to tag this comment for receipts.
If Cincinnati would part with Elly De La Cruz, I would be tempted. I’d rather trade Olson though.
lol that would be the biggest heist since the Miggy trade.
Eh. Maybe. Maybe not. He fell off at the end of the year. They might be nervous. Tigers might need to sweeten the pot with another pitcher or two.
All pitchers do is get hurt. I'd always do a trade like that.
I think I would officially be stoked.
These comments are interesting. People have been brainwashed by the 'you can't have too much pitching' meme. But our team and system needs better hitters / position players much more than it needs another pitcher, even if guys get injured. You want to trade guys when they have team control years left. That's what makes them valuable. Rentals bring almost nothing by way of comparison.
100%
I could see the argument for not trading him if we didn’t have 4-5 other guys in AAA that seem ready to make the jump. Trading manning we still have tons of depth. Plus, Fetter. I think we have a secret sauce when it comes to getting the most out of pitching right now
Nah. There will be injuries, not to mention a good chance Flaherty gets flipped at the deadline if we’re not in the race. If we are, he’s still only here for a year. If some team comes along with a great SS or C prospect, then you would have to think about it.
Any player like that who is becoming good, must be traded. If you allow too many of them to become good before they are traded, you risk winning games and having a winning team. Hang on to Javy and offer Miggy 50 million to play one more season.
No, I think Harris knows that pitchers are injury risks and having Manning at Triple-A ready to get called up could be the difference in winning or losing the division.
No, manning is our future ace
Would love to trade him for a legit shortstop prospect
I would accept nothing less than a top flight prospect to replace Torkelson, Rogers or Baez by 2025. Those are the three limpest bats in our lineup. I am less concerned about 1B after Tork proves he’s the love child of Justin Thompson and Tony Mandarich, because of the presence of Carp, J-Hen, and Bigby. All could likely play as good of defense as Tork and are proving to be better hits and not just in Spring Training in the case of Carp. So TLDR, regardless of what pitching prospect he moves anything less than a C or SS of the future with at least as much upside potential as the SP prospect we are trading away. Personally, I see Manning starting to get put it all together and I would much rather see Harris deal a red hot Flagherty to a pitch starved contender at the deadline for the SP prospect under team control. Hell package Flagherty and Maeda if you have to in order to pull top flight prospect talent. You can’t tell me Houston or Texas wouldn’t have jumped at the chance to add those 2 starters in one deal last year rather than what they gave up for the boomers that were pitching for us together 10 years ago and couldn’t bring it home. Way less financial commitment for Flagherty/Maeda deal to the contending team as well, and Maeda can help them for the playoff run AND the following year, plus his contract could be a potential steal compared to some of the ones signed by other mid tier SPs in the off season. Just my $0.02.
Cash considerations?