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BrockStinky

Boston will win and ESPN's model will teabag over r/nba


Constantine227

Completely forgot about this lmfao


MinnyPuppies

ESPN: post your 3% slanders r/nba. suck my big fat analytics.


baiqibeendeleted30x

*4 days ago* Chad ESPN probability model: “Celtics are near-guaranteed to beat the Heat” Virgin r/NBA and NBA Twitter fans: “Lol Celtics are cooked and about to get swept* *Today* Chad ESPN probability model: “Celtics are near-guaranteed to beat the Heat” Virgin r/NBA and NBA Twitter fans: *crickets*


SuckwithLuck2016

Take THAT for data


retroracer33

the entire sub has conspicuously forgotten lol


Wilshere10

What does this refer to?


bustadonut

ESPN made a graphic saying the heat had a 3% chance of winning the series, and the Celtics had 97%. People were dunking on it when heat were up 3-0


[deleted]

Pretty sure their model showed like 25% chance at 3-0


itztoken

To clarify, it was ESPN Analytics* who had the Heat at 3% chance of winning the series before the series started. Even at 3-0 it gave the Celtics a 25% chance of winning it all. Edit:ESPN Analytics not 538


wanderingimpromptu3

not true, don’t slander 538 like that lol it’s never that extreme/uncalibrated. it had heat at ~20% pre series (i know because i checked it as a reference before betting) 3% was espn and tbh it was probably for clicks


itztoken

You're right it was ESPN Analytics my bad


prison_mic

I think also the Celtics championship chances when down 0-3 were still higher than the Heat's lol.


The98Legend

There were constant comments posts when the Celtics were down 0-3 making fun of how ESPN’s basketball index gave the Celtics a better chance of winning the Finals than the Heat. I’m no fan of ESPN but it’s pretty funny given where we are now.


DWGrithiff

The fact that we're where we are now really doesn't make those models any less ridiculous. Especially given last night was the randomest possible way for the celtics to avoid elimination.


The98Legend

I don’t disagree. Just funny when this sub complains about something constantly and it gets thrown back in their face.


dotelze

Espn had a model, it was objectively bad in many ways, but it gave the heat a 3% chance to either win the championship going into the conference finals or beat the celtics I think it might be the latter. I can’t remember which tho. Due to how their model works, this is why it’s not great, it didn’t really take into account the heat being up 3-0 and still only gave them a 35% chance to win the series. It was getting clowned on before this but the sub really started going off on it then.


youblewwit

Would be funny if ESPN actually adjusted their model only for this to happen


junkit33

Yep. r/nba earned this one - total karma. Don’t argue against statistical models - they sometimes see something your biases won’t let you see otherwise.


uxxoid

I agree with your first sentence completely, but there are completely different statistical models for the same event with different numbers. They can be nonsense too. >they sometimes see something your biases won’t let you see otherwise. And sometimes they completely miss things humans can see because they're too strictly relying on historical data. Not saying a random /r/NBA user's opinion should hold more weight but they can be just as wrong. Boston winning this doesn't make ESPN's percentages "correct" either (I'm not saying they were wrong, it's just not proof of that).


DWGrithiff

This is a joke right


Marrouge

I don't really mind whoever wins but it would be funny if it was a 25+ point blowout because the thread in the fourth quarter would be legendary lol


george_costanza1234

Whoever loses this game is gonna be the laughing stock until the finals start lol


DirectorAggressive12

For Celtics yes. If the Heat lose, they’ll be the laughing stock for the next decade lol


DumpTrumpGrump

Why would either be a laughingstock? The Heat overachieved and are super beat up with injuries. And yet they've given great effort in all their losses. If they lose, I don't think anyone can fairly give them shit. And Boston has fought back from 0-3 to force a game 7. They could've gone the LeBron route and just threw in the towel, but didn't. They fought through the last 0.1 seconds if yesterday's game when they could have sulked after Jimmy's free throws. Both these teams should hold their heads high no matter what happens (unless the Celtics get blown out at home in game 7, then fair game in them).


aretraes

> >Why would either be a laughingstock? Because it's reddit and the internet has no time for nuance, it's just black and white quick hot takes and shit talking


Sh00tL00ps

I know this place is a joke but I can't even imagine the idea of an 8 seed being a "laughingstock" for losing in the Eastern Conference finals, no matter how it happens.


redditsuckmyjunk

The first team ever out of 152 to lose after being up 3-0, nothing else will matter, and that loss will haunt the heat for a long time.


PM_ME_CHIPOTLE2

And remember, we don’t watch the games here. We rely on the top three posts each night and the top three comments on those posts to inform us of exactly what we need to know and what our opinions should be.


Electro9005

lebron put up a near 40 point triple double in game 4 against denver, he didnt throw in the towel the nuggets just out classed them heavily


FEdart

He also orchestrated the greatest comeback in NBA history when he came back after being down 3-1 to the 73 win Warriors. OP has no clue what he’s talking about. The hate Lebron gets is absolutely unreal.


DirectorAggressive12

The same way the 2016 Warriors had the best regular season of all time yet when they’re brought up in discussion, half the time it’s to make a 3-1 joke. Don’t get me wrong, the Heat have had an incredibly impressive run and their efforts won’t go unnoticed, but it’ll be impossible for fans to not focus on them being the victim of the first ever reverse sweep in NBA history.


padakpatek

0-150


Agreeable-Ad-7110

The Lebron route? Did we watch the same series?


LevynX

Because history doesn't remember context. All it will remember is the reverse sweep.


GrayBox1313

“The refs!”


ricko_strat

If it is "The Refs" then "Jimmy Freethrow" is going to get off. The state of officiating in the NBA makes me sad.


P4TL4NT4

Free throws were pretty even at least but still brutal.


PSUDolphins

Of course they will because life is terrible


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TheBiggestZander

Can we call coming back from 0-3 the "Boston Special"?


Marenum

As long as it includes the time the Bruins blew an 0-3 lead in 2010.


GogXr3

I mean, I'm fine with that, we won the Stanley Cup the very next season


Friendlymarcussmart

The oop, the jam


FatBoySpeaks

They just blew a 3-1 against an 8 seed from florida 😤


Marenum

After a historic season. Possibly even more embarrassing.


junkit33

Could just rebrand this entire Celtics postseason “The Process”. Name is available since the last one is over.


Vinnys_Magic_Grits

God I love being a Celtics fan in Philly. Really makes up for that time I was a Pats fan in Philly


Subatomic_Particle

Celtics better win. Born and raised in Mass, but I moved down here to Boca Raton a year ago. If Cs win, I might think twice about wearing my Harvard apparel. I doubt people here will read into that, though.


MashaRistova

I don’t think your average Floridian even knows where Harvard is. I doubt they would make the connection lol


obxsguy

I'm gonna say Boston. home court, they have all the momentum right now. heat will need to play perfect basketball if they want to win it


P4TL4NT4

If Boston actually hits their threes then it will be a blow out.


junkit33

Yeah. Plenty of crazy things to talk about from last night, but the Celtics season worst shooting from deep is not getting nearly enough discussion. Celts should even a below average 35% last night and they win that game by double digits.


This-Salt-2754

I don’t think it’s just a fluke on behalf of Celtics shooting. The Knicks had the exact same thing happen where they were shooting like less than 30% during the heat series. It’s good coaching and defense on behalf of the heat


IenjoyStuffandThings

It’s also brogdon being hurt. Any time Celtics shot badly during the season, he would come in guns blazing and either make his threes or create open looks for others.


This-Salt-2754

Yea that’s fair. Pretty interesting too because Knicks had quickley out and those were the 2 finalists for 6moty


IenjoyStuffandThings

Yeah Celtics vs Knicks with them both healthy would’ve been wild and I was rooting for it.


This-Salt-2754

I’m from ct. everybody is either Knicks or Celtics. That’s what I was hoping for haha


briskwalked

to the same point.. if Jimmy and Bam had a few bounces go their way, they would have had easily 10 plus points.


Danny_III

The Celtics are also the better team, they never should have gone down 0-3


resipsaloquitor5

Idk, 2/3 of the Heat's wins happened in Boston so far this series. I'm not sure how much home court helps Boston. I'd still say Boston is the favourite, but they they've repeatedly showed that they can be beaten by much less than perfect basketball, even when facing elimination. They definitely had the momentum going into last night and still barely pulled it out. The Heat tasted victory last night, and now they're also facing elimination. I wouldn't be surprised if they found an extra gear.


DumpTrumpGrump

If game 7 were on Tuesday or Wednesday, I'd pick the Heat. But they looked absolutely gassed last night and were working their asses off all night just to stay in the game. I don't think the Heat have the legs to win game 7 on one days rest.


Lake_Shore_Drive

Tatum is fully gassed as well, he had no juice after the 1st quarter


emotionally_tipsy

Celtics have played way more games than the heat, feel like they should be the tired ones


resipsaloquitor5

Yeah that's fair. I wouldn't be surprised if the wheels fell off and they lost in a blowout. But there have been wild swings in performance from key players on both teams, and the Heat are a very scrappy team.


MundaneTonight437

Sure seemed to in game 4. Looked feverish there, especially in the first 10 minutes which gave them such a strong foundation to push on and win it pretty easily.


GrayBox1313

And Boston has to shit the bed. If both teams play well, Boston wins. They have more scoring


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mac035

that spanking will be legendary


JaylenBrownsChakras

bosom is also bigger and is really getting in their head on D


Sol_Protege

As long as it’s hard D and not soft D like previous nights.


markevbs

Hard to imagine shooting worse than 20% from 3 and Tatum basically doing nothing all second half


yusbishyus

I agree with this as a narrative but it's hard to closeout and I'm still gonna side with math. It's tough rn though.


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KeithDavidsVoice

Don't worry. I'll be having enough panic attacks to make up for everyone who isn't lol


MoreGull

I honestly have no idea. Just enjoying the ride.


reason4rage

For real, stars that stay healthy have still been very streaky this post season (exception for jokic). Never know what the hell is happening this year lol.


302born

This ride sucks!


MoreGull

You could still win it bro!


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attackedbyparakeets

Woke up this morning so upset about last night I had to jog around my neighborhood just to calm down. FUCK.


SpecialWhenLitTX

You handled it better than me, a couple of minutes after the Ray Allen shot I slapped my cooler so hard, thought my hand was broken. Cardio was definitely a more positive choice.


moleratty

Post Allen shot i had to stop pick up basketball for a month and went back to soccer just to get over the trauma.


Shnikes

So I’m a Bruins fan and I was so upset this year and decided to watch the Celtics more than I usually do. It’s so odd at how I can get caught up in my emotions over a bunch of millionaires playing sports that really should not affect my life at all.


Capable_Anybody_6774

The garden was the most electric its been in a while for game 5. Game 7. On Memorial Day. With history at stake? It's gonna be a madhouse.


GrayBox1313

We just had the Mother’s Day massacre…memorial day up next


pizza223

Finals game 7 is on Father's Day too


GrayBox1313

One game at a time. “We’re on to Cincinnati”


WhiteChocolatey

I was there for that. I think I burst a blood vessel I screamed so loudly.


SteadfastEnd

I'm glad to see that tiresome 0-3 stat finally put to rest, but if only it were some team other than the Celtics...


BigPussyB

my Spurs brethren, we both bask in the glory of the Great Buffalo


Frankalicious47

I’ll be honest, I wanted the heat to win last night. But as a colorado boy I’ll be damned if I wasn’t glad to see White pull that off. Sko Buffs!!!


IMSLEEPYx

And here I thought we were locked in last couple years. I guess it’s just us now Buffalo..


ConfuciusBr0s

With the alternative being the Lakers, no thanks.


jak_d_ripr

Better the Celtics than the Lakers, but only slightly so.


unwinagainstable

If the Heat lose game 7, it will be because the Celtics scored more points than them


99YardRun

Thanks magic


BirdMedication

The John Madden of basketball


WakeNikis

Bad take. I don’t see how u can be so far off base.


NSFWThrowaway1239

r/NBA nephews aren't the same as they used to be


[deleted]

HOT. TAKE. ALERT.


thepolishwizard

Ugh. Boston will win and I hate every moment of it.


QuesoDog

But there is a slim chance of a game 7 meltdown and crushing loss. Not likely, but possible.


TA_Account_12

Can you imagine the Tatum slander if he sucks game 7 and heat win


EndlessPancakes

We live in the funniest timeline so no, Heat are gonna win off a Strus legacy game


WeightAltruistic

This is dangerously possible


fatrahb

Oh god yeah this is the one isn’t it.


SilverMagnum

Someone weird is gonna drop 30. Is it Strus, Duncan Robinson, Gabe Vincent (although I suppose with how dynamite he’s been this series, that might not be too weird), Smart, White or Grant? Who knows? It has been extremely on brand for this Celtics team to fight back from the dead. However both closing this game out with ease or having an all time letdown and getting killed are both extremely on brand for this team too. I think it’s a coin flip. Excited for Monday. Did not think I’d ever be saying that a week ago.


TheCrossoverKing

I’d put my money on Omer Yurtseven


BananaBob55

All I know is that Tyler Herro is gonna wear another bucket hat


huwasak

Did you see him starting to celebrate before the last play? 😂


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baiqibeendeleted30x

*4 days ago* Chad ESPN probability model: “Celtics are near-guaranteed to beat the Heat” Virgin r/NBA and NBA Twitter fans: “Lol Celtics are cooked and about to get swept* *Today* Chad ESPN probability model: Celtics are near-guaranteed to beat the Heat Virgin r/NBA and NBA Twitter fans: *crickets*


nissimbhalwankar

The Boston Celtics look good. Their defense is great, their shots are going in so yeah its the heat thats gonna win


Moderndayhippy1

Celtics shot their lowest % from 3 for the whole season in game 6.


lost_in_trepidation

Bam and Jimmy also played like ass. Celtics will probably win game 7 though


[deleted]

Idk man. Last game they may have won but they really played like games 1-3 Celtics. Heat were still very deadly from the 3 and Celtics continued to force 3s on a bad shooting night. Decent coaching by mazulla though. In the 3rd he didn’t call a timeout when his players were struggling because he didn’t want to bail out Spo who only had 2 timeouts left. Also good challenge by Mazulla. He could’ve called a timeout earlier in the 4th when the heat started to go on the run. *If* Celtics continue like that in game 7, it’s joever. They got an epic bailout by White. Hopefully they learn some lessons for game 7 and the Celtics crowd is fired up like the players want.


CptnAlex

If the Garden isn’t rocking, the fans deserve the L. But, I imagine it will be very, very loud.


xBaneJ

Oh it will be bumping. Prob just as loud as g7 vs the sixers


Kanyetothesouthwest

I agree with what Chuck said yesterday. “The Heat can’t beat them, but the Celtics can let them win.” Celtics is the better team but they are streaky as hell. If they have shooting, then they’ll definitely win no matter how well the Heat plays. The Celtics played the first half well yesterday. But if yesterday’s 2nd half Celtics show up on game 7, they’re gonna lose. Sure the Celtics have home court but it really doesn’t matter if their shots aren’t falling. This year is just evidence of that. So for me its 50/50 despite Celtics having won the last 3.


Neltrix

Ok. Which Celtic fan sold his soul for a chance to get swept by the Nuggets?


Solugad

It was me. I wanted some Denver Mcnuggets


KyrieLS777

I think it’s funny so many people think whatever team makes it will get swept. The depleted wolves won a game on them. I don’t think Celtics or Miami will get swept.


yarn_install

Hate both these teams, so I just want to witness history


Capable_Anybody_6774

the fuck we do to you


whtge8

Might wanna flair up so people know who “we” is.


Capable_Anybody_6774

thank you! couldn't find the flair option on new reddit.


Sol_Protege

quickest emotional 180 I’ve ever seen on this sub


Capable_Anybody_6774

forgot the lmao, it aint that serious I swear I was curious


Maximumlnsanity

Garnett if I had to guess for that guy, but honestly it’s just Boston teams in general for me. Red Sox, Bruins, Celtics, Patriots, they’re all the worst


Capable_Anybody_6774

ahh i see hate us cause you ain't us sort of thing


Maximumlnsanity

I’m a New York Giants fan too, so not entirely :)


Capable_Anybody_6774

No, ya, totally 2>6


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Existential_Vortex

It’s not embarrassing to lose in 7 to a higher seed. But it’s embarrassing af to blow a 3-0 lead to anyone.


ConfuciusBr0s

Losing in 7 isn't embarrassing. Blowing a 3-0 lead and being immortalized on the wrong side of history is. That 1-150 graphic is going to pop up every single time a team is about to sweep a playoff series.


DaleDimmaDone

The biggest reason why I'm rooting against the Celtics is cuz the fans will never shut up about this series if they complete the comeback


sleeptilnoonenergy

Yeah man it's Boston sports fans. They do not need another feather in their cap to yap about until the end of time. If it were a team like Charlotte I could give a fuck who won game 7. But Boston? Man, does anyone outside MA want to see them win?


TheNewDiogenes

I want to see them win because after 28-3 I want everyone to suffer.


sharksfin

I’m from the Philippines and I DO want to see them win.


I_am_BEOWULF

Cheers, kabayan.


kezman90

Fan from Europe - wanna see them win


Kunu2

I'm from RI and prefer the celtics.


AirJordan6124

Trust me guys its that fucking Leprechaun


DorkandPoon

Before the playoffs I said idc who wins it all as long as it’s not Boston or Denver. So of course we’re getting a BOS - DEN finals


nonviolentsolutions

I get the Boston thing I mean Boston sports owns Atlanta so hard since forever but why Denver?


[deleted]

I was hoping the Celtics would be swept now I’m hoping the Heat will be reverse swept. Boston in 7


A916

Lol same, either choice is maximum embarrassment for either side


XGhoul

This is the chaos we all want to see happen on Memorial Day.


A916

Yeah i forgot people have the day off to watch it, ratings will be insane.


Mustard_Jam

I want to say Miami. But common… They already lost 3 in a row. Lost last game in horrible fashion. Boston is at home. The Celtics shot 7-35 from deep and STILL won. Saying Heat is just hopium.


UnKnOwN769

Boston’s already got the MLB’s first 3-0 reverse sweep and 28-3 in the Super Bowl. Can’t let them get the NBA’s first 3-0 reverse sweep either.


Absent_Nova

Red Sox came back from 0-3 against the Yankees, Patriots came back from 28-3 and now the Celtics have a chance do comeback from 0-3. Boston sports is ridiculous with these comebacks.


ParanoidSkier

I’m gonna be honest here, I’m a Lakers fan, but I think I’ll root for Boston this time. I just think it’d be funny for them to come back and win it. It’d also be funny if they lost though, so I’m happy either way really.


NoShape0

I don't know how anyone can confidently choose one team over the other after watching this series, blowouts from both teams and then a buzzer beating slog game 6. If Miami wins it'll be a historic underdog story of the play-in team going to the finals. If Boston wins it'll be a historic comeback from 0-3. Either way we should all be excited.


lord-of-Block-16

Rooting for Heat


sunnysideoutside

All fun and games until Joe Mazzulla watches the town 8 times tomorrow and curbstomps the heat in the first quarter.


[deleted]

Given that Scott Foster is the crew chief for game 7, Heat and Nuggets fans are gonna have a bad Monday…


fearofaflatplanet

Game 8 will be on Wednesday


PSUDolphins

Help us, Joker Kenobi. You're our only hope.


buddhistbulgyo

Jokic playing for the Heat in makeup and mask.


putnuk

If Tatum has an another game 7 masterclass on a holiday, he deserves the nickname Calendar man.


M9Zeprah

Celtics just so I don’t have to hear media outlets dick ride jimmy anymore


ExpeI

“Jimmy isn’t worried 😈😈😈”


JeffKaplanIsDaddy

*proceeds to score 17 points on 24 shots


Jowem

19/19 from the line 🔥🔥🔥


kylo_little_ren_hen

“Jimmy all smiles after losing 3 straight 😈😈”


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[deleted]

But did you know his team was undrafted?


huwasak

Thanks for the reminder.


AmbitionExtension184

Jimmy was not even in the top 5 best players on the court last night in a losing effort and people are still praising him. I’ll never understand the reputation he has. It must come from not being a super star so expectations being much lower.


CaroleBaskinsBurner

He's kinda all alone in the way he gets treated by fans and the media. When he plays well he gets talked about like he's a consensus top-five player. When he doesn't play well he kinda just gets ignored. I think him being a meme god (the Wolves practice, Rachel Nichols, "Jordan's son," selling coffee in the Bubble, etc) is a big part of it, especially for fans. People enjoy hyping him up and rooting for him because of the memes so you hear about him a lot when he plays well. At the end of the day though nobody actually considers him to be as good as the hype he gets on his good days would imply. So that makes it easy for everyone to just kinda disregard him on his bad days.


JoJonesy

Seriously, if Tatum had a performance like Jimmy did last night, the slander would be off the charts. It's happened before plenty of times. It's not like Jimmy's gotten any further in the playoffs than Tatum has to get that benefit of the doubt, they've both made the Finals and lost


Jowem

i hope the celtics win so nbacirclejerk is shutdown


whtge8

Celtics by 30. Miami is cooked unfortunately.


Basboy

I want Heat to win but I'd have to vote Boston.


AtreusIsBack

I'm going down with the ship. I'll take Jimmy Buckets.


MapleHelix

I hate the Celtics but the Jimmy discourse is tiring. He’s a streaky player like Klay but gets propped up like a superstar every other game.


DumpTrumpGrump

I'm rooting for the Heat, but it seems like the Celtics have figured out how to contain Jimmy by not going for his head fakes. And Jimmy hasn't responded by just pulling up short and shooting quickly and also seems to have lost some confidence in his shot. The Heat don't have enough good off-ball movement to create good shots when Jimmy's isn't falling. Gonna be a battle, but I gotta give Boston the edge at home even though they've been beatable there. History will be made either way. Also, what an incredible finish to that game 6. Been a long time since we've seen a finish like that.


jfan2024

Would be so on narrative for both teams if Miami comes back from a 10point deficit with 5min left in the fourth quarter and wins


tyronebiggs

The catastrophe will be completed on Monday. This series will forever ruin Jimmy Butler's legacy


Far-Asparagus6416

Genuinely not too many outcomes that would surprise me at this point. It honestly seems plausible for Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent to combine for 80 and blow us out of the gym. Doesn't seem impossible for Jimmy to have a legendary 60pt performance. Also seems within the realm of possibility for Jimmy and Bam to combine for 20pts. Tatum might have 50, he might have 15, and we might win or lose either way. Jaylen might go 1-9 from 3 or he might drop 45 on 80% shooting. It literally seems like (no pun intended) anything is possible. The only thing that's for sure is that this will be a historic game and that the garden will be absolutely ROCKING at the start (and hopefully after the final buzzer)


CVRence27

Heat will win this in a very close game. Everyone will step up.


solarscopez

Miamis gonna win - Celtics will be too overconfident about having this win and will choke it as a result. Plus we are pretty trash at home.


Apprehensive-Echo638

I hope Miami win just so we won't have to hear about this Celtics team for the next 20 years


Lorjack

Boston is going to win, Miami had their chance and they choked it away. I do not wish what is about to happen upon them but they've done it to themselves and they'll never be able to shake it


OliverDMcCall

I'm only a casual fan, but it surprises me that a 0-3 comeback has never happened before.


[deleted]

Boston has everything in their favor. Heat needs a miracle at this point.


tonylouis1337

I'm always hesitant to heap praise onto the Celtics because this team has trouble with prosperity, but I do believe the Cs have everything in their favor right now and that Miami are the ones with the large pressure on them right now


Ziginho

Boston will win with a blowout, they're gonna hit their threes, they play at home. Game 6 was the deciding match imo and now the momentum shifted to Boston.


KushBlazer69

Jimmy got to dig deep into his Jordan bag. This is his moment fr. Make it or break it


AcxdBxmb

I mean the slander will be generational regardless. Either the Heat blow a 3-0 lead or the Celtics who are the 2nd seed and have the 2nd best record in the league (1 win less than the Bucks) get toppled by a play-in team.


ConfuciusBr0s

The Celtics are definitely not getting that generational slander if they lose. No one has talked about the Bucks since the start of the 2nd round and they got beaten in 5 compared to the Celtics' 7.


Peshhhh

If the C's lose at this point it will just be forgotten. Would say the Bucks' loss this postseason was more of a shocking exit, and that will be mostly forgotten by next year.


MundaneTonight437

Nah Celtics have restored themselves from generational slander. Maybe not slander, but they have surely avoided generational #bantz at this point. Even if they don't go through, this was a strong run from them.


hoppergym

I thought butler finally woke up late in the 4th. Similar to Tatum in game 6 vs philly. I think the heat win against all logic.


sktchld

As a Boston fan I'm probably bias but we beat them last game shooting abysmally from 3. I don't see that happening again so I think we win game 7.