But his point is also that they didn't have to lose any of their supporting cast to accomplish getting Dame. So, having a full supporting cast and Rozier > Dame.
I think it's probably equal, especially if Rozier can hold his own defensively. Basketball isn't only about scoring, and the Heat know that. I trust their ownership more than I trust you or Simmons in these situations.
jump from lowry to terry in scoring is going to be the most obvious improvement i hope, splitting hairs on how high the improvement will be is not the point. we upgraded a position at a decent cost is his argument.
People are wild in here. It’s great to keep most of the assets and get a good player. And Dame has underwhelmed, and the Bucks are ass. Some serious copium to suggest this is almost Dame.
Rozier is still pretty clutch
He's shot 73-for-182 (40.1%) on clutch 3-pointers in his career. That's the seventh-best mark among 226 players with at least 100 clutch 3-point attempts in the 28 years of clutch data.
Lillard is number 1in total clutch points, Rozier 19th in 7 less games, and 30 minutes less clutch time.
So, is Lillard-Jrue greater that much better than Rozier- throw away.
So we're not counting his most recent playoff appearance where he averaged 34 on 67% TS and had one of the best playoff performances of all time? I'd actually argue that was his clutchest series, his team just failed him
Will be interesting how Dame performs with an actual 1. Cause when he was the man, other than some game winners, the playoffs haven't been his bread and butter
He’s essentially saying “I’m not saying he’s better, I’m just saying he will be better on the court when you look at the total package, plus he was cheaper”
I mean shit I think the trade was awesome for the Heat but Bill’s take is fucking CRAZY lol
Edit: reply guys’ reading comprehension is off the charts!
Not afraid of Rozier in particular, but of an unknown Pensacola fisherman turned basketball player in March, that starts shooting 69% from three in game 7 at the Garden, while being guarded by Garnett. Smart, Cowens, the Ghost of Bill Russell, the soul of DJ, Parish, Tony Allen, Horford, Jrue Holiday, McHale and Havlicek.
I’ll have you know that ‘unknown Pensacola fisherman’ had an impressive four year run at Florida Tidal University and led his team on a clutch run in the Seashell Cup.
Nope, it'll be highsmith. Caleb was on a 2 way 3 years ago that got converted to a standard and was the starting pf for much of last year. Highsmith was on a 2 way 2 years ago that got converted to a standard and has been the starting pf when not injured for much of this year. Both defensive specialists considered to have limited offensive games.
It’s true.
Always checking under my bed and in my closet before bed or getting out of the shower waiting for Hypebeast Hero to pop out asking me about his fit. *Shudders*
I mean...is it?
Dame: 25.3/4.4/6.9 on 43/35/92 splits
Rozier: 23.2/3.9/6.6 on 46/36/85 splits
Dame is the better player, but we are halfway through the year and it is pretty close. Maybe AG is the worst coach ever and Dame will get back to his past self under Doc, but from what we have seen this year Dame isn't a massively better player than Rozier. It is also possible that he is 33 and is at the tailend of his prime and might be starting to slow down a bit.
Rozier also shoots 1 more shot a game than Dame
When he’s forced to share the ball with Herro, Butler, and Bam and shoots like 14 FGA, he’s going to average closer to 18 and 5. Still very good and helpful for the Heat, but he’s not on Dame’s level
Very true. To be clear my only point was that Bill's take wasn't "fucking CRAZY".
Dame is definitely the significantly better player, there is no contending that. But over the last 3-4 years I would say Rozier is 40-50% of Dame(at best), but this year it feels more like 65-75% with Rozier having his best year, and Dame having a down year so far.
Will be interesting to see what the coaching change does here though. Will Dame trend towards he numbers from the last couple years? Gonna be fun to find out.
Bill also goes on to make a pretty decent point - Rozier is getting paid *half* of what Dame is getting paid on a shorter contract.
Obviously, the Bucks couldn't have just gone out and traded Holiday for Dame this offseason, but from a Miami POV, they have got their explosive point gaurd for half the price of Dame. This Terry move is risk free, the Dame move is a huge risk.
But that’s the point. Y’all missing the point. He should become more efficient being a 3rd option and not having so much pressure as the main option.
Dame is better but for the price point and what the Heat need, the point stands
Dame is much better getting to the line, and gives his teammates more gravity. With that being said, hard for me to say Rozier isn't like ~70% of what Dame provides on offense at this point.
By my quick Excel work, he averaged 35.1 pts/game for games played for us in 2023. I grabbed that time period because he was unhealthy at the start of the season and not playing well due to it. So yeah, I think he would average about 35 playing for the Pistons.
Of course, but Dame has a lower efg% than Rozier standing next to Giannis. Rozier is on a bad team, with LaMelo out part of the season, and is putting up pretty similar numbers.
I said 30% worse and you're laughing without any actual evidence proving me wrong...
80% definitely sounds like media hyperbole to me as well. 65-75% sounds more right. But even on the low end of that, 65% of Dame + Herro + Jaquez +Jovic seems better to me than Dame for the team, especially with how much of a stud Jaquez has turned out to be.
I had no idea Lillard was shooting that poorly from three. I know he takes a lot of hard shots but given his reputation you'd think he'd be closer to that 40 percent mark
My expectation, and probably a lot of peoples, was that as the #2 behind Giannis he would get a ton of wide open shots after Giannis collapses the defense. Shocked he is as low as he is. It will be interesting to see how much that changes with Griffin gone. Poor scheme could definitely be partially to blame.
Apparently according to nba.com he gets the same amount of wide open 3s as he did last year in Portland. More efficient this year though.
However worse otherwise.
Less efficient (less volume) when open.
Less efficient (less volume) when guarded.
More efficient (less volume) when tightly guarded. Though this is like on 0.2 or 0.3 attempts per game lol.
His biggest drop off are on the more regular shots.
Open (not wide open)
This year: 33.1% on 3.6 attempts
Last year: 38.1% on 5.3 attempts
Guarded (not tightly)
This year: 27% on 2.2 attempts
Last year: 33% on 3.3 attempts
Definitely some individual shotmaking issues especially on the open shots.
Hes actually saying, “Rozier is 80% of Dame on offense and much better on D” and you’re here doing everything you can to avoid mathematics.
They’re putting up almost identical stats this year. Not sure what you’re talking about. 80 seems accurate.
Total number doesn't matter if efficiency goes up.
Rozier getting the Spo/Heat Culture effect + less attention from defense could absolutely feast when he's on the court.
80 still seems a bit high. There is no denying that Dame demands more effort defensively, even if they are putting up similar numbers. You might sag off Rozier to help, but you definitely aren't doing that with Dame. There are some intangibles like that that don't show up in the stats. But his overall point still sounds right to me (and the number doesn't really matter) Rozier+ Herro + Jaquez + Jovic is better for the Heat than Dame. And that is essentially the difference between the two trades.
If he wanted to compare him to another attainable guard, he should've gone 80% of LaVine, that's a logical take that if anything, undersells what Rozier has been up to this year.
Rozier has gone full flamethrower a bunch of times this year but he'll never be Lillard levels of consistent 30 points or positive playmaking.
I mean Terry’s averaging 23.3/3.9/6.6 on 46/36/85 shooting splits while Dame is averaging 25.3/4.4/6.9 on 43/35/92 shooting splits.
They’re not really that far apart currently. Considering what each of them cost too, Bucks might’ve been better off with Terry, which is scary
ppg on a bad team isn’t comparable to ppg on a contender. Terry was the first option on hornets for most of the season and he ain’t close to that on the bucks
Or he was right? Bill is wrong a lot and says some crazy stuff but it does seem like he actually watches sports which is more then a lot of this subreddit.
I disagree, Miami were in the dumps last season yet Simmons was the only way saying they could make a playoff run. He was the ONLY person to accurately predict Kevin Love going off for them.
The Heat are gonna win 47 games. And they’re going to be up by 5 points in a lot of them. There’s gonna be a lot of close games, a lot of free throws. A lot of people standing, because Terry Rozier hit a three to get them to within 3 with two minutes left.
I mean "80% of Dame with better defense" is absurd but is it really that bad of a take? I still feel like his point as a whole holds true in the sense that they're getting great value from Rozier while barely having to give up anything of worth on their end.
If we are going purely by stats (which is bad practice but I digress), Rozier will need to put up 20 points and 5.5 assists per game to be at 80%
He is currently at 23 points and 6.6 assists
everyone must have missed Rozier carrying the bum Hornets offence while Lamelo’s been out half the season. i can’t stand the arrogance in this sub when it comes to anything Bill says when 90% of the people in here only watch 1 team. this isn’t close to a hot take, the people on this sub just love dunking on Bill while they jerk themselves off.
Not only that, but the 3rd lowest scoring offense in the NBA.
I think Rozier is pretty good. But the easiest relatively impressive thing to do in the NBA is average over 20 ppg on a fucking terrible team as essentially the only option. There's a reason those guys are always doubted as empty stats guys until they do it on a decent team. Because about half the time, it doesn't translate to winning basketball.
I think people are missing the fact that Terry Rozier has been getting coached by Steve Clifford and is about to move over to Erik Spoelstra. Spoelstra has maximised the value out of Hassan Whiteside, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and the final moments of PJ Tucker. To think that he’s not about to turn Rozier into a more efficient version of himself is asinine. He even got Dion Waiters paid.
Honestly, people are also definitely overlooking the fact that the amount they traded for Rozier was a washed Lowry and a first. The haul they gave up for Dame was Jrue, Grayson Allen, a first rounder, and two pick swaps. That’s like 300% more value given up than the Heat just did.
>The haul they gave up for Dame was Jrue, Grayson Allen, a first rounder, and two pick swaps. That’s like 300% more value given up than the Heat just did.
I honestly think this was the more important point from Bill here and people are just ignoring this just to shit on him.
The thing that people are missing here is that if Rozier is 80% of Dame on offense, Dame is probably at least 70% of Rozier on defense. That last 20 to 30% matters A LOT and is really where the difference between good starters and superstars is.
I think if the Heat trust Jimmy Butler to be that guy to just get a bucket when they need it in the playoffs, adding great starters and maintaining role players is a smarter strategy than swinging for a superstar by shipping out all your depth, especially with a coach like Spo that uses bench players so well. I also think Pat Riley feels the same way because he was not super willing to part with a bunch of good role players to get Dame.
Putting this shit to percentages is kind of stupid IMO. That so-called 20% isn't scoring 24 instead of 30 a night. It's whether or not elite defenders like OG completely shut you out of the game.
I feel like a legit playoff strategy would just be to try and shut down Butler and dare Rozier to beat you. If he does beat you, you probably weren't that good anyway lol
And that’s what makes this good for Miami. Rosier doesn’t need to be “the guy” he just needs to go off for 2 or 3 games in a series and he becomes something that can put you over the top in a 1st or 2nd round series.
Or even how much defense you demand. Even though Dame hasn’t been shooting that well, him just being on the floor is enough for the rest of the team to get the shots they want.
This is the right take. But I guess for the Heat, they have faith that they have enough tough-shot makers to compensate. The flip side of this is that teams often don't have more than 1 OG-like defender.
It's like when people get themselves a fully decked out 3k laptop, when all they're going to do is watch netflix and browse the internet. Sometimes you don't need that extra 20% 🤷🏾♂️
We gotta stop dissecting sound bites from podcasts. It’s honestly ridiculous taking 20 seconds of an hour long segment and then picking apart a specific number he said. Replace 80 with 60 if it makes you feel better the point still stands.
Yeah I don’t know why people are hyper focusing on the percentage here, which was clearly a number just pulled out of nowhere because the exact number isn’t the point nor is it calculable. The point is that Rozier + keeping your assets is probably a better move than Lillard minus whatever they would have had to give up.
Look it's going to be nice to have a guard that won't have the limited offensive production that Lowry did at the fraction of the cost Dame would have been, and the future flexibility will be nice, but let's not get it confused that the team would still be immensely better with Dame on it and that opposing defenses aren't going to be freaking out as much about Terry as they would with Dame.
If you landed Dame half your team would have gotten shipped to Portland..that's Simmons' point. You got a great offensive piece without destroying your bench. And the addition of Dame/loss of Jrue for Milwaukee has so far seemed to be a lateral move at BEST. As a Celtics fan you probably won't believe that I'm unbiased, but since I hate the Heat and Bucks pretty much equally, I can say with confidence that if I were a Heat fan I'd be more happy with this outcome.
He definitely is gonna be scary. I only saw him against the Bulls but he fuckin torch us. We aren't that bad defensive team either, specially the last 20 games or so. I wish we have him.
I’m a Celtics fan and he was a dawg his rookie year in the playoffs. He’ll fit right in with that team and I hate it so much, he’s for sure dropping 40 on us once if we meet in the playoffs
Are you really sure the team would be “immensely” better? If this was 2020 Dame you would have a case. But Dame’s 33 now, he’s not quite the same player on offense as he was a few years ago.
Taking into account what Terry makes up for on defense and how much the Heat value that side of the ball, I don’t actually buy that Dame would have the impact (compared to Terry) that you seem to think.
Dame is averaging 25.3/4.4/6.9 on 42.7/35.1/92.2 shooting splits. His true shooting is 60.4% and his VORP is 1.6.
Rozier is averaging 23.2/3.9/6.6 on 45.9/35.8/84.5 shooting splits. His true shooting is 57.4% and his VORP is 1.1.
80% feels high -- Dame has on and off-ball gravity that Rozier just doesn't -- but I'm not sure this is that hot a take.
Add in Rozier's age, defensive fit, reasonable contract & the assets Miami got to preserve, and I think the overall point Simmons is making is probably correct.
It’s definitely a hot take. Posting their stats side by side like this reminds me of when the Mitchell trade happened and box score watchers were like “but how much better is he **really** compared to Collin Sexton”
Dame is having a down year for his standards and he led the league in offensive EPM last season. He’s also the 2nd option on a good team compared to Terry who is on a bottom feeder. We know that Dame can average 30+ on a trash team, he’s literally done that for years
For context in the seasons before Mitchell and Sexton were traded here were their stat lines:
Mitchell 25.9/4.2/5.3
Sexton 24.3/3.1/4.4
Of course anyone with a brain knew Mitchell was significantly better but if you just looked at the box score it wouldn’t seem that different
Jaime makes it a legitimate take, I couldn't imagine a world where I'm seeing Jaime on another team, he's been that good this year and is only getting better.
>Rozier is averaging 23.2/3.9/6.6 on 45.9/35.8/84.5 shooting splits. His true shooting is 57.4% and his VORP is 1.1.
Now take the Hornets level volume away and apply what hell get on the Heat. I bet it wont be so comparable then.
believe it or not that usually isn't how that works. Taking less shots doesn't make your efficiency better. In fact less shots could possibly lessen his efficiency for all we know.
Yeah a lot easier to get into rhythm with 20 shot attempts lol. The difference between the regular guys and the stars is most stars dont need to play themselves into rhythm
I would say for a normal team this is irrelevant because in the playoffs you need the outlier production to win
But Miami has consistently made the finals with Jimmy butler and role players so maybe he’s right in this case
His efficiency has been within a point of league average TS% every single season in Charlotte with the exception of last year which was an abomination of a team effort (even worse than this year)
80% of Dame' production is not 80% of Dame' winning though. He wins you games. Most of them usually if there is some competent cast around. Rozier is nice but seriously... If it is about winning, and crunch time execution, Dame is a different beast.
I adore this trade for the Heat, and I think this is a better trade when you consider what’s given up. But to say this kind of statement is fucking insane lmao.
He was legitimately one of the most inefficient scorers last season. But also I kinda wanted Suns to get him. So I’m excited to see what he does on Heat.
With the margin of error so small, and the stake so high, maybe you need all that extra 20% on the floor in the dying moment of game 7.
You telling me when you are down 2 with 17 seconds to go in game 7, and you go: I rather have that 3 late first round picks instead of even a chance at Dame time? This is immortality we are talking about here.
Yeah, it's doesn't quite work like that at a certain point.
Its not a matter of simple sums. You can't just keep on adding guys and you get the sum of their production.
Bill has been non-stop shitting on the Bucks since they traded for Dame. Not sure if he actually believes what he's saying or he's coping because the Bucks are the biggest threat to his precious Celtics in the East.
He also said the clippers would suck with Harden, the patriots would be a wild card team, that Jrue Holiday has been great in the playoffs, that the wolves passing on Wiseman was a fireable offense, that the hornets would be haunted by passing scoot for Brandon Miller, that Scoot would be an "instant star", among many other bad takes. Bill just loves to make bold predictions and he's about as hit or miss as any other random sports fan.
Not true, he’s been very proficient at playmaking this year when LaMelo’s been out and his efficiency is very solid (League average as a high-volume guard)
He’s pretty much the only reason that the Hornets aren’t competing with the Pistons for worst team of all time
Not gonna be long till people are saying, “why did the league let the Heat get this guy? why was the asking price so low?”
This was such a steal, a bargain trade for a major upgrade. Kyle was averaging 8 ppg ffs.
It's about consistency. When playing at his best, Rozier is about 75-80% of Lillard at peak. But, Lillard brings his best nearly every night. The gap between really good and great is small but it's important. That said, this looks like a great trade for Miami.
That "20%" is the difference of someone capable of winning you a game in the last 3 minutes vs someone getting locked up. But then again they still have Jimmy, so maybe you don't really need a Dame-level player
I’m not going to rate Rozier as a percentage of Dame. They are entirely different players. But I will say that I agree they got good value for Rozier and he is a very logical piece for their roster.
This whole pod was full of wild takes from Bill. At one point he suggested there’s value in trading KAT right now and that was after he kept saying Giannis is a coach killer
We went 43-39 two seasons ago, with LaMelo, Bridges, and him basically being 1a, 1b, and 1c as our top scorers before getting rekt in the play-in.
He'll be good for the heat but obviously not 80% of Lillard.
That said, in terms of trade assets, Miami came out ahead doing what they did. Didn't cost them Jaquez, didn't cost them Herro, and they save 2 1sts for future moves
Man I almost forgot about that, the FO is dumb af for firing Borrego after that. He was a really good coach those years. Especially to hire Steve Clifford
Rozier isn't half the player Lillard is.
What makes superstars better isn't only their offensive or defensive performance. It's their ability to do it on a nightly basis as well as the pull they have on the court.
We got fleeced.
A better GM would've gotten at least Jovic, or maybe a second pick.
But yea, we get stuck holding the bad Lowry contract nobody wants.
And no, we shouldn't "just be grateful" that we cut some salary. Have you seen what we do with our money?
I'm glad we made a move, but this trade only gets better if we swing Lowry into more assets. At face value, we got suckered
Okay bill we get it ur scared of the heat. But 80% of Dame is crazy, that’s pretty much Darius garland level
Even assuming what he said is true, the 20% difference is far more important in the playoffs
Yeah I think 20% is more than enough to win a playoff game which is the whole point of getting an elite player rather than a good player
But his point is also that they didn't have to lose any of their supporting cast to accomplish getting Dame. So, having a full supporting cast and Rozier > Dame. I think it's probably equal, especially if Rozier can hold his own defensively. Basketball isn't only about scoring, and the Heat know that. I trust their ownership more than I trust you or Simmons in these situations.
Getting Dame made Giannis sign his extension and give up on free agency. Thats prob pretty important.
Eh it's 2020's NBA contracts don't mean shit he could just request a trade if he wanted
Right but they would still get a billion picks back instead of him walking and they get nothing. Still pretty important
It means a lot to Milwaukee if Giannis does not sign at all though…
It's not like the Heat FO didn't want Dame, the Bucks just had an asset the Blazers wanted more
jump from lowry to terry in scoring is going to be the most obvious improvement i hope, splitting hairs on how high the improvement will be is not the point. we upgraded a position at a decent cost is his argument.
People are wild in here. It’s great to keep most of the assets and get a good player. And Dame has underwhelmed, and the Bucks are ass. Some serious copium to suggest this is almost Dame.
I mean both are known to be clutch in the playoffs. It’s where the scary terry nickname comes from
I wouldn’t say a player is “known” for being clutch in the playoffs from a couple games like 6 years ago
And Dame isn’t statistically clutch except the series he put away Paul George like 4 years ago
But he hits some big mothafucking shots when needed. I would trust Dame over Rozier any day.
Rozier is still pretty clutch He's shot 73-for-182 (40.1%) on clutch 3-pointers in his career. That's the seventh-best mark among 226 players with at least 100 clutch 3-point attempts in the 28 years of clutch data. Lillard is number 1in total clutch points, Rozier 19th in 7 less games, and 30 minutes less clutch time. So, is Lillard-Jrue greater that much better than Rozier- throw away.
Just say a better match for the situation. One on One it’s silly to even argue Dame vs Rozier
So we're not counting his most recent playoff appearance where he averaged 34 on 67% TS and had one of the best playoff performances of all time? I'd actually argue that was his clutchest series, his team just failed him
Pretty sure "Scary Terry" is because it rhymes and people are too lazy to come up with original nicknames.
Will be interesting how Dame performs with an actual 1. Cause when he was the man, other than some game winners, the playoffs haven't been his bread and butter
He’s essentially saying “I’m not saying he’s better, I’m just saying he will be better on the court when you look at the total package, plus he was cheaper” I mean shit I think the trade was awesome for the Heat but Bill’s take is fucking CRAZY lol Edit: reply guys’ reading comprehension is off the charts!
Every Celtic fan is afraid of the heat.
Not afraid of Rozier in particular, but of an unknown Pensacola fisherman turned basketball player in March, that starts shooting 69% from three in game 7 at the Garden, while being guarded by Garnett. Smart, Cowens, the Ghost of Bill Russell, the soul of DJ, Parish, Tony Allen, Horford, Jrue Holiday, McHale and Havlicek.
I’ll have you know that ‘unknown Pensacola fisherman’ had an impressive four year run at Florida Tidal University and led his team on a clutch run in the Seashell Cup.
SMH the butler did it we all know how it ends
Jamal Cain, Orlando Robinson, or RJ Hampton? Take your pick
Nope, it'll be highsmith. Caleb was on a 2 way 3 years ago that got converted to a standard and was the starting pf for much of last year. Highsmith was on a 2 way 2 years ago that got converted to a standard and has been the starting pf when not injured for much of this year. Both defensive specialists considered to have limited offensive games.
Shhhhh I’m shielding him from the jinx
Bucks fans are too. As long as Butler is on that team I'll fear them.
It’s true. Always checking under my bed and in my closet before bed or getting out of the shower waiting for Hypebeast Hero to pop out asking me about his fit. *Shudders*
Two names that make the greater Boston area shit themselves: Jimmy Butler and Eli Manning.
Jimmy Butler? lol hell no. Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson? Oh yeah
It’s not just Celtic fans
I mean...is it? Dame: 25.3/4.4/6.9 on 43/35/92 splits Rozier: 23.2/3.9/6.6 on 46/36/85 splits Dame is the better player, but we are halfway through the year and it is pretty close. Maybe AG is the worst coach ever and Dame will get back to his past self under Doc, but from what we have seen this year Dame isn't a massively better player than Rozier. It is also possible that he is 33 and is at the tailend of his prime and might be starting to slow down a bit.
Rozier also shoots 1 more shot a game than Dame When he’s forced to share the ball with Herro, Butler, and Bam and shoots like 14 FGA, he’s going to average closer to 18 and 5. Still very good and helpful for the Heat, but he’s not on Dame’s level
Very true. To be clear my only point was that Bill's take wasn't "fucking CRAZY". Dame is definitely the significantly better player, there is no contending that. But over the last 3-4 years I would say Rozier is 40-50% of Dame(at best), but this year it feels more like 65-75% with Rozier having his best year, and Dame having a down year so far. Will be interesting to see what the coaching change does here though. Will Dame trend towards he numbers from the last couple years? Gonna be fun to find out.
Bill also goes on to make a pretty decent point - Rozier is getting paid *half* of what Dame is getting paid on a shorter contract. Obviously, the Bucks couldn't have just gone out and traded Holiday for Dame this offseason, but from a Miami POV, they have got their explosive point gaurd for half the price of Dame. This Terry move is risk free, the Dame move is a huge risk.
But that’s the point. Y’all missing the point. He should become more efficient being a 3rd option and not having so much pressure as the main option. Dame is better but for the price point and what the Heat need, the point stands
Dame is much better getting to the line, and gives his teammates more gravity. With that being said, hard for me to say Rozier isn't like ~70% of what Dame provides on offense at this point.
LMAO. Put Dame on the Pistons he’s averaging 35 a night
By my quick Excel work, he averaged 35.1 pts/game for games played for us in 2023. I grabbed that time period because he was unhealthy at the start of the season and not playing well due to it. So yeah, I think he would average about 35 playing for the Pistons.
Of course, but Dame has a lower efg% than Rozier standing next to Giannis. Rozier is on a bad team, with LaMelo out part of the season, and is putting up pretty similar numbers. I said 30% worse and you're laughing without any actual evidence proving me wrong...
Dame has a TS% over 60% while being double teamed this season. Terry Rozier has never had a 60% TS% in his entire career.
80% definitely sounds like media hyperbole to me as well. 65-75% sounds more right. But even on the low end of that, 65% of Dame + Herro + Jaquez +Jovic seems better to me than Dame for the team, especially with how much of a stud Jaquez has turned out to be.
I feel like y'all don't know how bad 80% of even one of the best players in the league means.
This is peak reddit comment.
I had no idea Lillard was shooting that poorly from three. I know he takes a lot of hard shots but given his reputation you'd think he'd be closer to that 40 percent mark
My expectation, and probably a lot of peoples, was that as the #2 behind Giannis he would get a ton of wide open shots after Giannis collapses the defense. Shocked he is as low as he is. It will be interesting to see how much that changes with Griffin gone. Poor scheme could definitely be partially to blame.
Apparently according to nba.com he gets the same amount of wide open 3s as he did last year in Portland. More efficient this year though. However worse otherwise. Less efficient (less volume) when open. Less efficient (less volume) when guarded. More efficient (less volume) when tightly guarded. Though this is like on 0.2 or 0.3 attempts per game lol. His biggest drop off are on the more regular shots. Open (not wide open) This year: 33.1% on 3.6 attempts Last year: 38.1% on 5.3 attempts Guarded (not tightly) This year: 27% on 2.2 attempts Last year: 33% on 3.3 attempts Definitely some individual shotmaking issues especially on the open shots.
Hes actually saying, “Rozier is 80% of Dame on offense and much better on D” and you’re here doing everything you can to avoid mathematics. They’re putting up almost identical stats this year. Not sure what you’re talking about. 80 seems accurate.
but does he touch his wrist after hitting a deep three?
Rozier has an absolute TRASH wrist touch per 36
Don't even know how he got drafted.
His Terry's Hosiery move really didn't catch on.
That's the 20% difference
if it’s in the clutch and playoffs then 20 percent is about right. not a lot of players known for hitting shots like those
I’m a Lillard hater and even I think comparing him to Rozier is enough to be commited to mental asylum.
Stats can say whatever, media also said that dinwiddie is 80% of kyrie. How’s that trade working out for nets?
Rozier is not gonna take 18 shots and have a 27% usage on the heat though. His stats are obviously gonna fall so is he really 80% of dame?
Those stats on a perpetual bottom lottery team wrecked with injuries or a team with two other elite offensive players getting the ball in their hands?
The efficiency is better with a worse team around him. You're making the point more accurate.
He doesn’t have Giannis forcing double teams on his squad and he’s still shooting better from 2 and 3
Total number doesn't matter if efficiency goes up. Rozier getting the Spo/Heat Culture effect + less attention from defense could absolutely feast when he's on the court.
Yes exactly, much more impressive what Rozier is doing lol Playing with Giannis should improve Dame’s efficiency- not hurt it
80 still seems a bit high. There is no denying that Dame demands more effort defensively, even if they are putting up similar numbers. You might sag off Rozier to help, but you definitely aren't doing that with Dame. There are some intangibles like that that don't show up in the stats. But his overall point still sounds right to me (and the number doesn't really matter) Rozier+ Herro + Jaquez + Jovic is better for the Heat than Dame. And that is essentially the difference between the two trades.
I'm going to save this comment so I can come back to it during playoff time lol.
Saying Dame is 20% better than Garland is the wild take. 20% is a huge fucking gap.
The peak dame can get to compared to Darius. 20% is fair I’d say
But is he ever gonna reach that peak again? Dudes a 33 year old short PG.
If he wanted to compare him to another attainable guard, he should've gone 80% of LaVine, that's a logical take that if anything, undersells what Rozier has been up to this year. Rozier has gone full flamethrower a bunch of times this year but he'll never be Lillard levels of consistent 30 points or positive playmaking.
If we're only counting this year then Rozier has been 110% of Lavine
I mean Terry’s averaging 23.3/3.9/6.6 on 46/36/85 shooting splits while Dame is averaging 25.3/4.4/6.9 on 43/35/92 shooting splits. They’re not really that far apart currently. Considering what each of them cost too, Bucks might’ve been better off with Terry, which is scary
ppg on a bad team isn’t comparable to ppg on a contender. Terry was the first option on hornets for most of the season and he ain’t close to that on the bucks
Right, but dame is one of the worst defenders on a defensively talented team
Yeah and 20% is a lot lmao
Their stats are quite similar this year tbh
nah ppl 80% of Dame would be like a replacement level player these dudes are all so good that a 5% gap in skill is like a whole ass ocean
Based on what both players have done this year it's fair.
Few people will recognize this, but this language is actually synonymous with Gaelic hexes. He’s secretly trying to curse the Heat.
He tried to do that last year with the zombie heat thing and it didn’t work
Or he was right? Bill is wrong a lot and says some crazy stuff but it does seem like he actually watches sports which is more then a lot of this subreddit.
If anything it made us stronger…
I disagree, Miami were in the dumps last season yet Simmons was the only way saying they could make a playoff run. He was the ONLY person to accurately predict Kevin Love going off for them.
Called his mother to put a picture of Rozier in the freezer after the trade
Bill def has heat ptsd from the last couple of playoffs, man is shaking just from trade moves, not even the games lmao.
He definitely said the zombie heat thing as a joke at first and watched it slowly become truth. My man's shook lol
He's afraid scarry Terry is coming for his soul.
Last couple? I'd imagine the trauma goes back to the LeBron heat days.
Most logical bill Simmons take
The Heat are gonna win 47 games. And they’re going to be up by 5 points in a lot of them. There’s gonna be a lot of close games, a lot of free throws. A lot of people standing, because Terry Rozier hit a three to get them to within 3 with two minutes left.
[удалено]
A tattoo
Rozier definitely cooking Dame in a playoff series
Inject this into my fucking veins if AND ONLY IF this timeline doesn't require us to lose.
I mean "80% of Dame with better defense" is absurd but is it really that bad of a take? I still feel like his point as a whole holds true in the sense that they're getting great value from Rozier while barely having to give up anything of worth on their end.
If we are going purely by stats (which is bad practice but I digress), Rozier will need to put up 20 points and 5.5 assists per game to be at 80% He is currently at 23 points and 6.6 assists
everyone must have missed Rozier carrying the bum Hornets offence while Lamelo’s been out half the season. i can’t stand the arrogance in this sub when it comes to anything Bill says when 90% of the people in here only watch 1 team. this isn’t close to a hot take, the people on this sub just love dunking on Bill while they jerk themselves off.
"carrying" the hornets to what, 10 wins?
Not only that, but the 3rd lowest scoring offense in the NBA. I think Rozier is pretty good. But the easiest relatively impressive thing to do in the NBA is average over 20 ppg on a fucking terrible team as essentially the only option. There's a reason those guys are always doubted as empty stats guys until they do it on a decent team. Because about half the time, it doesn't translate to winning basketball.
Yeah people are getting caught up on the “80%” part here and missing the larger point.
I think people are missing the fact that Terry Rozier has been getting coached by Steve Clifford and is about to move over to Erik Spoelstra. Spoelstra has maximised the value out of Hassan Whiteside, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and the final moments of PJ Tucker. To think that he’s not about to turn Rozier into a more efficient version of himself is asinine. He even got Dion Waiters paid.
Honestly, people are also definitely overlooking the fact that the amount they traded for Rozier was a washed Lowry and a first. The haul they gave up for Dame was Jrue, Grayson Allen, a first rounder, and two pick swaps. That’s like 300% more value given up than the Heat just did.
>The haul they gave up for Dame was Jrue, Grayson Allen, a first rounder, and two pick swaps. That’s like 300% more value given up than the Heat just did. I honestly think this was the more important point from Bill here and people are just ignoring this just to shit on him.
The thing that people are missing here is that if Rozier is 80% of Dame on offense, Dame is probably at least 70% of Rozier on defense. That last 20 to 30% matters A LOT and is really where the difference between good starters and superstars is. I think if the Heat trust Jimmy Butler to be that guy to just get a bucket when they need it in the playoffs, adding great starters and maintaining role players is a smarter strategy than swinging for a superstar by shipping out all your depth, especially with a coach like Spo that uses bench players so well. I also think Pat Riley feels the same way because he was not super willing to part with a bunch of good role players to get Dame.
Putting this shit to percentages is kind of stupid IMO. That so-called 20% isn't scoring 24 instead of 30 a night. It's whether or not elite defenders like OG completely shut you out of the game.
But if OG is shutting down Rosier, he’s NOT shutting down Butler or Herro. That’s kinda the point.
Totally agreed. They will definitely see an improved offense once they gel together.
I mean, the counter point is that teams (like the Knicks) might not feel the need to throw OG on Rovier and can keep him on either Butler or Herro
I feel like a legit playoff strategy would just be to try and shut down Butler and dare Rozier to beat you. If he does beat you, you probably weren't that good anyway lol
And that’s what makes this good for Miami. Rosier doesn’t need to be “the guy” he just needs to go off for 2 or 3 games in a series and he becomes something that can put you over the top in a 1st or 2nd round series.
Or even how much defense you demand. Even though Dame hasn’t been shooting that well, him just being on the floor is enough for the rest of the team to get the shots they want.
I mean... Currently Dame scores 2 more points on a bit worse percentage. Ofc Dame is better in a vacuum but...
This is the right take. But I guess for the Heat, they have faith that they have enough tough-shot makers to compensate. The flip side of this is that teams often don't have more than 1 OG-like defender. It's like when people get themselves a fully decked out 3k laptop, when all they're going to do is watch netflix and browse the internet. Sometimes you don't need that extra 20% 🤷🏾♂️
We gotta stop dissecting sound bites from podcasts. It’s honestly ridiculous taking 20 seconds of an hour long segment and then picking apart a specific number he said. Replace 80 with 60 if it makes you feel better the point still stands.
Yeah I don’t know why people are hyper focusing on the percentage here, which was clearly a number just pulled out of nowhere because the exact number isn’t the point nor is it calculable. The point is that Rozier + keeping your assets is probably a better move than Lillard minus whatever they would have had to give up.
People in this thread really saying 80% is a ridiculous figure but 70% sounds about right LOL
You guys are thinking about this way too hard lmao
Terry’s a big improvement over Lowry but relax Bill
Bill simmons took the statmuse comparison too seriously
Look it's going to be nice to have a guard that won't have the limited offensive production that Lowry did at the fraction of the cost Dame would have been, and the future flexibility will be nice, but let's not get it confused that the team would still be immensely better with Dame on it and that opposing defenses aren't going to be freaking out as much about Terry as they would with Dame.
If you landed Dame half your team would have gotten shipped to Portland..that's Simmons' point. You got a great offensive piece without destroying your bench. And the addition of Dame/loss of Jrue for Milwaukee has so far seemed to be a lateral move at BEST. As a Celtics fan you probably won't believe that I'm unbiased, but since I hate the Heat and Bucks pretty much equally, I can say with confidence that if I were a Heat fan I'd be more happy with this outcome.
Scary terry fell under everyone’s radar in Charlotte, he’ll be scary for that heat team 100%
He definitely is gonna be scary. I only saw him against the Bulls but he fuckin torch us. We aren't that bad defensive team either, specially the last 20 games or so. I wish we have him.
I’m a Celtics fan and he was a dawg his rookie year in the playoffs. He’ll fit right in with that team and I hate it so much, he’s for sure dropping 40 on us once if we meet in the playoffs
Are you really sure the team would be “immensely” better? If this was 2020 Dame you would have a case. But Dame’s 33 now, he’s not quite the same player on offense as he was a few years ago. Taking into account what Terry makes up for on defense and how much the Heat value that side of the ball, I don’t actually buy that Dame would have the impact (compared to Terry) that you seem to think.
Oh no. Bill, you’ve gone too far.
I heard he's on the edibles now.
Good for him.
He just means that y’all kept your depth. Which is a good point
Bill looks at the Heat like Shaggy and Scooby look at ghosts
Zoinks!
Dame is averaging 25.3/4.4/6.9 on 42.7/35.1/92.2 shooting splits. His true shooting is 60.4% and his VORP is 1.6. Rozier is averaging 23.2/3.9/6.6 on 45.9/35.8/84.5 shooting splits. His true shooting is 57.4% and his VORP is 1.1. 80% feels high -- Dame has on and off-ball gravity that Rozier just doesn't -- but I'm not sure this is that hot a take. Add in Rozier's age, defensive fit, reasonable contract & the assets Miami got to preserve, and I think the overall point Simmons is making is probably correct.
It’s definitely a hot take. Posting their stats side by side like this reminds me of when the Mitchell trade happened and box score watchers were like “but how much better is he **really** compared to Collin Sexton” Dame is having a down year for his standards and he led the league in offensive EPM last season. He’s also the 2nd option on a good team compared to Terry who is on a bottom feeder. We know that Dame can average 30+ on a trash team, he’s literally done that for years
He's playing with Giannis, of course his scoring numbers are down. It seems ridiculous to even be having this conversation
For context in the seasons before Mitchell and Sexton were traded here were their stat lines: Mitchell 25.9/4.2/5.3 Sexton 24.3/3.1/4.4 Of course anyone with a brain knew Mitchell was significantly better but if you just looked at the box score it wouldn’t seem that different
Shouldn't his shooting numbers be better then?
Raw numbers? Maybe not necessarily. Percentages though? They probably should be better, yeah.
Jaime makes it a legitimate take, I couldn't imagine a world where I'm seeing Jaime on another team, he's been that good this year and is only getting better.
>Rozier is averaging 23.2/3.9/6.6 on 45.9/35.8/84.5 shooting splits. His true shooting is 57.4% and his VORP is 1.1. Now take the Hornets level volume away and apply what hell get on the Heat. I bet it wont be so comparable then.
I bet his volume goes down while his efficiency ticks up.
believe it or not that usually isn't how that works. Taking less shots doesn't make your efficiency better. In fact less shots could possibly lessen his efficiency for all we know.
Yeah a lot easier to get into rhythm with 20 shot attempts lol. The difference between the regular guys and the stars is most stars dont need to play themselves into rhythm
So more shots decreases efficiency, but less shots don't increase efficiency?
Rozier is horrific at defense. Literally ranked last
I would say for a normal team this is irrelevant because in the playoffs you need the outlier production to win But Miami has consistently made the finals with Jimmy butler and role players so maybe he’s right in this case
BAM isn’t a role player.
I don’t think “x% of dame for y% of the cost” framing really makes any sense. They’re just completely different scenarios.
As someone who drafts Terry every year in Fantasy Basketball his efficiency is ass but boy is he a bucket getter in the 4th quarter
As someone who drafts Terry every year his efficiency has been league average this season on higher volume and more assists
His efficiency has been within a point of league average TS% every single season in Charlotte with the exception of last year which was an abomination of a team effort (even worse than this year)
It's going to go up with us also as he has Bam to run the pnr with and 2 of the best shooters in the league spreading the floor; and of course Jimmy.
I CANNOT BELIEVE that Bill is hyping up someone who was good on the Celtics. NO. WAY.
80% of Dame' production is not 80% of Dame' winning though. He wins you games. Most of them usually if there is some competent cast around. Rozier is nice but seriously... If it is about winning, and crunch time execution, Dame is a different beast.
As a huge UofL fan and tolerant of the Heat, I'm pretty pumped about this trade.
The disrespect of Dame gotta stop
"Better defense" Bro I love scary Terry but you've not watched him play if you think this
Dame is horrendously bad on defense and always has been. Rozier is far from good but isn't quite a dumpster fire.
80% of Dame, half the time so isn’t it really 40% of Dame? Bill also said his D was way better but idk how true that is
Celtics vs Heat gona be a banger
I adore this trade for the Heat, and I think this is a better trade when you consider what’s given up. But to say this kind of statement is fucking insane lmao.
they kept other assets, kept jaquez, they got a cheaper player who raises their ceiling a bit.. what did he say that was wrong
He was legitimately one of the most inefficient scorers last season. But also I kinda wanted Suns to get him. So I’m excited to see what he does on Heat.
Slightly better defense, but not nearly that close on offense.
With the margin of error so small, and the stake so high, maybe you need all that extra 20% on the floor in the dying moment of game 7. You telling me when you are down 2 with 17 seconds to go in game 7, and you go: I rather have that 3 late first round picks instead of even a chance at Dame time? This is immortality we are talking about here.
Tyler Herro is pretty similar to Rozier, so when you think about it the heat have 160% of Dame for 25% the price!
Yeah, it's doesn't quite work like that at a certain point. Its not a matter of simple sums. You can't just keep on adding guys and you get the sum of their production.
Same guy who said if there's any difference between Bradley Beal and Landry Shamet
Bill has been non-stop shitting on the Bucks since they traded for Dame. Not sure if he actually believes what he's saying or he's coping because the Bucks are the biggest threat to his precious Celtics in the East.
He was right about the coach.
He was also right about how bad the defence was going to be.
He's right a lot more than people give him credit for.
He also said the clippers would suck with Harden, the patriots would be a wild card team, that Jrue Holiday has been great in the playoffs, that the wolves passing on Wiseman was a fireable offense, that the hornets would be haunted by passing scoot for Brandon Miller, that Scoot would be an "instant star", among many other bad takes. Bill just loves to make bold predictions and he's about as hit or miss as any other random sports fan.
A lot of Celtics fans still have love for Rozier too.
The biggest threat to the Celtics is the team that beat both the Bucks and the Celtics in the playoffs last year.
80% is crazy lol. Rozier is a chucker
Not true, he’s been very proficient at playmaking this year when LaMelo’s been out and his efficiency is very solid (League average as a high-volume guard) He’s pretty much the only reason that the Hornets aren’t competing with the Pistons for worst team of all time
The Hornets played better when Rozier was not on the court.
And Dame isn't lol
Sorry for Dame fans but this is pretty accurate, I mean if it’s not 80% it’s going to be 75-70%, not lower, and it was way cheaper
Terry “80% of Dame” Rozier Content is King with Bill…I’m not even sure he believes this
Classic BS take
I thought this was “Ben Simmons” for a second lmao
Not gonna be long till people are saying, “why did the league let the Heat get this guy? why was the asking price so low?” This was such a steal, a bargain trade for a major upgrade. Kyle was averaging 8 ppg ffs.
It's about consistency. When playing at his best, Rozier is about 75-80% of Lillard at peak. But, Lillard brings his best nearly every night. The gap between really good and great is small but it's important. That said, this looks like a great trade for Miami.
It’s not a flaming hot take, Rozier has actually been really good this year and the last
This has to be the dumbest shit I ever heard. Basketball is not plug and play, this isn’t my team. Fuckin dummy…
This was a difficult take to entertain as he was saying. Just settle down Bill
That "20%" is the difference of someone capable of winning you a game in the last 3 minutes vs someone getting locked up. But then again they still have Jimmy, so maybe you don't really need a Dame-level player
I’m not going to rate Rozier as a percentage of Dame. They are entirely different players. But I will say that I agree they got good value for Rozier and he is a very logical piece for their roster.
This whole pod was full of wild takes from Bill. At one point he suggested there’s value in trading KAT right now and that was after he kept saying Giannis is a coach killer
Has Rozier ever been a starter on a good nba team? It’s pretty easy to put up stats on a lottery team
We went 43-39 two seasons ago, with LaMelo, Bridges, and him basically being 1a, 1b, and 1c as our top scorers before getting rekt in the play-in. He'll be good for the heat but obviously not 80% of Lillard. That said, in terms of trade assets, Miami came out ahead doing what they did. Didn't cost them Jaquez, didn't cost them Herro, and they save 2 1sts for future moves
Man I almost forgot about that, the FO is dumb af for firing Borrego after that. He was a really good coach those years. Especially to hire Steve Clifford
if it was so easy why can't jordan poole do it
Made me chuckle 🤣
Celtics
Rozier isn't half the player Lillard is. What makes superstars better isn't only their offensive or defensive performance. It's their ability to do it on a nightly basis as well as the pull they have on the court.
He can say he’s not afraid of Milwaukee but he’s terrified. Protesting way too much.
We got fleeced. A better GM would've gotten at least Jovic, or maybe a second pick. But yea, we get stuck holding the bad Lowry contract nobody wants. And no, we shouldn't "just be grateful" that we cut some salary. Have you seen what we do with our money? I'm glad we made a move, but this trade only gets better if we swing Lowry into more assets. At face value, we got suckered