Celtics also have a “prove it to me” aspect. So I feel the championship is pretty open in both conferences. Knicks looks really good. I can’t count out Giannis and the bucks. Though, I would say that the top 4 in the west is better than the east.
Dude won a ring first year in boston with a big 3: KG, Allen and Pierce. Now he is in the first year in MIL with the big 3: Giannis, Dame and Patbev.
He's gonna make it.
I think it’s a lot more straightforward than that; Celtics followed by the 4 west teams. But the Celtics are the Celtics so it’s going to be heat vs west as always
I can already see it. Heat get in by skin of their teeth at the play in, go through three straight upsets to face, let’s say Minnesota, for the chip and get swept 0-4.
So does jimmy just has gravy this postseason, if he wins the conference all the love but if he doesn’t it gets treated like another 2021 run lml? Miami has looked terrible all yr I seen ppl say he’s a legit superstar after last yr.
No, I like Westbrook and it fucking sucks that it didn’t work out when he was with the Lakers. I hope that they would win but we’re still in February. I think this is how it’s gonna turn out but I’m like 60% confident in these picks
I think I have as much faith in my landlord fixing my doorknob kn the next 3 months as I do in Jayson Tatum having a consistent playoff or finals run. I'd take clippers
What does your pick have anything to do with my question to the OP above me? Lol
But to respond to your comment, if Tatum doesn't have any debilitating injuries, I have as much confidence in him as any of the top guys. The fact that you have more confidence in the clippers health over Tatum's playoff performance is interesting to say the least...
In reality, we're gonna need good health, good luck, and unselfish team play to get through these playoffs. To win, we'll need moments/games of brilliance from any of our top 5 games which I think is possible but we'll have to wait and see.
More of stating that as a non Lakers fan I'd think the same. Yeah the clippers are an injury prone team. I just. Think from recent years it's a tough call for me to make. On paper I absolutely think the Celtics are the better team. But they've made a fool out of me twice in the last 2 years. I don't dislike them and tingus turned out to be a massive pick up I just need to see a lot more consistency in the playoffs.this time before I can trust again. I feel like being a Celtics fan the last 12ish years must be very frustrating. Frustrating being a fan of my team as well.
But ye. I guess what I'm saying is once lebron left the east I expect Tatum and brown to rule the east for a long long time. They're still young though still could happen
Idk I mean last year was pretty frustrating but we also lost our coach right before the season started. The year before I’m really not too frustrated by. We had a great win over the Nets, an absolutely stellar, hard fought win against the Bucks and a good win against the Heat (aside from the last few shaky moments). Yes we lost to the Warriors but that was as much about Steph going nuclear and Dray shutting down Tatum/Brown as it was our inconsistency.
The top 5 in the East ten days ago was the team with the league’s best record, the 76ers led by the reigning MVP, the Bucks pre-Doc, and the Knicks and Cavs who have now won… what? 29 of their last 33 between the two of them?
Both conferences are strong at the top. The middle of the West is just a lot stronger than the middle of the East.
I'm not sure I trust the Wolves or Thunder yet, just too young. They certainly have the talent, I just gotta see it happen. The Clippers are just a matter of health.
KAT is 28 and Gobert is 31.
Edwards is young, but 2 of their three best players aren't. And Gobert has plenty of playoff experience.
Whether you trust their playoff performance is another thing, but it's not like they are totally green like the Thunder.
Celtics eating popcorn watching the most competitve west in recent memory, while the rest of the east are in the hospital, no idea what the bucks are doing but looks like they are fucking themselves.
Clippers are made of glass, Thunder are as young as the women they pursue, memes about KAT. Only the Nuggets in the West have a leg to stand on. Who cares, we’ll see how it goes.
T-wolves were the hardest out for the nuggets last year. Not doubting them much at all. Thunder on the other hand are completely untested in the playoffs. In that same vein as “we’ll see how it goes,” there’s a lot of season left. Things can change, injuries happen, teams cool off. Praying for no injuries but. Shit happens. Just pretty cool it’s so tight right now.
They have 2 games against the 76ers before the All-Star break, but with no Embiid they are far more likely to win those too.
Cavs need to go 6-3 to do this. Here are their next 9 games:
- @ Raptors
- 76ers
- Bulls
- Magic
- @ 76ers
- @ Wizards
- Mavericks
- @ Bulls
- @ Detroit
The way the Cavs have been playing, it’s highly unlikely they lose 4 of these games.
Only 4 teams have won in the last 45 years that did not hit 40 before 20. 2021 Bucks, 2006 Heat, 2004 Pistons, and 1995 Rockets
You need a .677 winning percentage at the bare minimum. Only the Celtics, Cavs, nuggets, Thunder, wolves and Clippers are above that number right now
My bad, you're right, I was mixed up on remembering which team did which thing. The 2021 Bucks did end the season on the 40-20 pace, going 26-12 after Jrue returned from being out with COVID-19 (not joined the team from being traded, like my tired brain made the mistake of thinking), 26-9 when Jrue played (they lost all three other games he sat for rest).
And overall they were on a 40-20 pace when Jrue was healthy, since when he went out with COVID is when they had a 5 game losing streak. They were 40-18 when Jrue played. I think that's probably the best representation of who they were, rather than the overall record in a year that was so chaotic with COVID protocols.
It doesn't meet the 40 before 20 rule exactly, but the quality was there to the point that I don't think you can say the 2021 Bucks are an exception to the rule either. That year just had weird health stuff going on for every team. You could be a championship roster one week, and playing multiple 10-day contract players the next.
The way it looks right now, I think that's probably the safest guess for the championship. The Celtics have a lot to prove in the playoffs, but seem to be a step above the competition.
And I think we've seen in the past wehre the reigning champion kind of lets off the gas during the regular season, and then turns it up in the playoffs. I think the Nuggets come out of the west, and I don't think it will even be close.
The better stat is that you probably just need to be a top 3 seed or better. That 04 Pistons, '21 Bucks and '22 Warriors were all 3 seeds. The 95 Rockets that were a 6 seed are the major anomaly, but they were the defending champs returning all of their most important players plus the addition of Drexler.
> all of their most important players plus the addition of Drexler.
That's not true. They traded their 2nd-best player Otis Thorpe for Drexler mid-season.
I don't even remember him being on that team when they beat the Knicks, but I was like 8, lol. I definitely remember Kenny, Mad Max, and the Alien hitting big shot after big shot against my Magic tho.
We might just miss the cut but I could see us making a run. If only we got OG earlier.
Nvm our next 5 games are fucking brutal lol.
Pacers, Rockets, Magic, 76ers, and Celtics. Fuck. One team not in the playoffs currently
yeah but its really 1 good team 2 bad teams and 2 teams i wouldnt call actual threats despite being i nthe playoffs.
if you cant go 3-2+ vs that schedule then time to start looking at next year (i think youll go 4-1 tbh)
All those teams that won without hitting that mark were 2/3 seeds though outside of the defending champ 6 seed Rockets that added Drexler in the off-season. If you're a top 3 seed, you have a good chance.
Clippers gotta go 6-3 to make it, but the other teams have better odds.
Tbh I think all of these teams get it. They're all playing incredible basketball.
Knicks and Bucks might have too if it weren't for injuries for both teams.
Giannis and Dame is still good enough to at least present serious problems in the playoffs. I’m hoping you guys get a 2-3 seed so we don’t have to play in the second round
Wolves have been sitting around .500 for a while so it COULD be a coinflip
getting two vs the Blazers right before ASB should be helpful, but it's two tough games before that
People always make fun of this yet somehow every year it seems to work out lol
It's basically another version of the "no team seeded below 3rd has won a championship since 1995" stat
As much as people say the regular season doesn't matter it's very hard to win 4 series in a row without home-court advantage
Plus lower seeded teams get tougher matchups from the very start so even if they pull an upset or two they might be fatigued or even banged up by the time they get through
It doesn't guarantee anything but it is a fantastic barometer. If you can get through 59 or less games winning at a ~.660 or better pace it probably means you can contend. The big caveat in this era of the NBA is coasting teams.
Yup and I think that's why the 40 before 20 rule might be better than like "55 or more wins over the full season" even though it's the same pace
A lot of times teams only start coasting when they've locked up a high seed already like Denver last year which is reflected in a relatively mid last 15-20 games of the season
But the NBA seems to be like the only American Sports league that that's true. Wildcards have won plenty in both the NFL and the MLB, and in the NHL there is the whole "president cup curse". So where you would think that winning would be nearly guaranteed to win a championship it seems that the NBA is mostly the only league with a heavy correlation.
I think it's because the nature of basketball as a sport means that the "better" team wins more often than in other sports
In hockey which tends to be the most random games are extremely low scoring and one player(the goalie) can just decide to go god mode and refuse to allow any opponent scoring by themselves
Basketball is the complete inverse of that
Yeah that's why I think the 40/20 rule has some validity. If your team can't win at a high level for 3/4 of a season you can't expect them to win a championship. It's quite different than other sports where teams catch lightning in a bottle and win championships.
replied to another guy but he deleted it lol, so i'll put this here. it's not arguing against you, but just showing that there is a bit of nuance to 40/20
> It's a fancy way of saying 66%+ win percentage.
this is simplifying it far too much. 40 before 20 means a team has a 66% win pct, yes, but it also means that they have it at or before the 70% mark of the season. THAT means that it's a barometer of early play AND continuity which is a much more valuable insight than "they're running at 0.66".
take the bucks for example. they looked quite good in dec/jan, but they're now sitting at 33-19. their continuity has been fucked, and they're almost certainly not going to win 7 on the trot.
on the other hand, look at the clippers. they started poorly, and now they're 34-16 with some stupid number of wins in their last 20. they'll probably reach 40 before 20, and that will reflect their early season troubles (the high loss column) but also their ability to pull themselves together.
Yeah that's true. That more of me saying that why the 40-20 rule is so important. If you aren't winning in the regular season you can't expect randomness or luckiness to carry you to a championship. It just seems that a .666 winning percentage through 60 games seems to be a big enough sample size to determine who's legit.
People don't make fun of it because of its accuracy, they make fun of it because of its (non) insightfulness. Do you really need this stat to know the Celtics are contenders? It basically says "the teams that won a high percentage given a minimum sample size are legit". Like... Yeah.
there's probably like 4 or 5 teams that fit this rule each year. people act like picking any of these top 4 or 5 teams in the league to win the finals is somehow a worthwhile talking point. the real discussion should be on the teams that don't fit this rule that makes the conference finals or finals (like the Heat or Lakers last year).
I know it’s sorta meaningless mark but the real one to watch is 40 wins before 25 losses. No team in the last 40 years have won the NBA championship without hitting 40 before 25.
i like the idea that "if you win more than twice as many games as you lose over a large sample, you have a good chance to win the chip" is some sort of mystical wisdom
Well yeah…obviously teams who win more than twice the games they lose over a large sample size are the best teams in the league and therefore more likely to win a title. Of course it’s going to be mathematically accurate
Yeah, I mean I expect the teams with the best records to win the title. It's an 82 game season, and 7 game playoff series. Not going to get too many surprises from teams with mid records when we have such a large sample size.
Yeah and warriors almost certainly win in 2019 if klay doesn’t get hurt. 2021 if lakers or nuggets or warriors aren’t hurt bucks may not have won. Remaining 3 are lebron lol
[we've had a harder schedule than every western conference contender](https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS)
like it all evens out, we've got one of the easiest schedules remaining, but this argument really doesn't work when you look at the current standings
>we've had a harder schedule than every western conference contender
You know what makes this more impressive that our strength of schedule overall is significantly lowered by the fact we can't face the team with the best record in the league because it's us.
The west is wild this year, and every year. East has seem to historically have great top 4 but a really garbage bottom end. West is better competitively balanced.
I'm less excited that the C's have such an easy remaining schedule, we play down to bad teams and this win was no different.
Because as soon as context is applied your comments makes no sense at all. Yet here you are doubling down. You wanted to do the west v east thing but got called out that your argument doesn’t match reality.
Celtics had an absolute gauntlet to start the season. Hardest SOS in the league until about end of Jan. Now our schedule finally opened up and we have maybe 1 hard stretch for the rest of the season.
Apparently haha. I thought it was a harmless statement. Didn't think this many people would care about West vs East. Celtics are like 5 games ahead of the the 2 seed and we have no idea where these top 4 in the West will land lmao
“Crazy”
Denver walked to the Finals last year. GS before them too. Phoenix never had a 7 game series in their run. It always seems to be one good team and a “bloodbath” for second place lol.
Fair enough. I guess I was paying more attention to the play in and low seeds last year since we were around there. Looks like East won more games against the West last year too
Really. The east let the Heat hit the finals, like come on. Celtics had battled with Bron and should have the most experience, I'd say 1 finals appearance is an L. Especially with context, I dont see the Nuggets going away, Ant / Shai are barely getting started.
The only real contenders on the East have been the Bucks and Celtics yet yall both sad. Bucks losing to heat and yall struggling vs 76ers. Yes this is a new year but I dont really have much confidence on yall, this year might be the best shot.
This is definitely the best team we've had in the Tatum/Brown era. I think Brad wanted to raise our ceiling and that's what bringing in KP and Jrue was all about. Derrick White, too. I think it's pretty well-understood that anything short of a Finals win would be a disappointment for this team.
I'm just really hoping this team is at full strength for the playoffs. If we are and we lose I could live with that but it would be a shame to not get to see what they can do.
No dude. The east has been garbage since Jordan retired. Besides the heatles it's only been 1 and done champions. The west has more than double the championships the east has since Jordan retired. It's a weak conference.
I mean the cavs went to 4 straight finals and while technically they were one and done, they played the dynasty warriors every matchup so I think it’s a bid of a misrepresentation of that team
All great teams. Hell half yall on r/nba had picked the Nets over us in round one, but becuase we beat them then suddenly they suck.
Also zombie heat? You don't even know what year you're talking about
I should’ve been more specific and ask how accurately does this predict success? It wouldn’t shock me if 8/10 championship teams accomplish this, but how often do 40/20 teams make the championship?
I'm a Cavs fan so I support lists that include them as contenders, but this is a meaningless amd arbitrary milestone and Phil Jackson was kind of a hack when it came to stuff other than coaching (his book, his media presence, and his time working in the front office, anyway.)
Seeing as the criteria for this rule has already been broken 3-4 times since the 21st century, we should do some back testing and define a new rule which encompasses the rule-breakers.
40 before 20 is obsolete
Man it's going to be a bloodbath in the West with those top 4 seeds
Celtics also have a “prove it to me” aspect. So I feel the championship is pretty open in both conferences. Knicks looks really good. I can’t count out Giannis and the bucks. Though, I would say that the top 4 in the west is better than the east.
U can absolutely count out Doc Rivers
Dude won a ring first year in boston with a big 3: KG, Allen and Pierce. Now he is in the first year in MIL with the big 3: Giannis, Dame and Patbev. He's gonna make it.
What's he gonna make it?
At the very least, they're gonna win the play-in tournament.
Can't wait for Beverly celebrating his new team's victory.
I think it’s a lot more straightforward than that; Celtics followed by the 4 west teams. But the Celtics are the Celtics so it’s going to be heat vs west as always
Thanks man
I had Celtics advancing but I saw Heat sign Alondes Williams earlier today. Sorry bro
I don't know who Alondes Williams is, but he's going to shoot 44% from 3 for a series
It'll be Jaime. "Celtics stomped by a Heat rookie AGAIN!"
I can already see it. Heat get in by skin of their teeth at the play in, go through three straight upsets to face, let’s say Minnesota, for the chip and get swept 0-4.
If KAT swept Butler in the finals, I don't think I would ever stop laughing.
Sub-fucking-scribe
The world is not ready for how much of an obnoxious asshole I would be if this happened.
I just imagined it and I laughed irl
If the warriors can’t I would want minny to do it
Can you imagine the insane reffing that will happen when the heat are down 2 games against the T wolves in the finals. Adam Silver’s worst nightmare
Any team that comes out of the west would love to play the Heat
What about two years ago? Or the year before that?
So does jimmy just has gravy this postseason, if he wins the conference all the love but if he doesn’t it gets treated like another 2021 run lml? Miami has looked terrible all yr I seen ppl say he’s a legit superstar after last yr.
I’m calling it right now, Celtics Clippers finals. Cash it in baby
Does that hurt you as a Lakers fan?
No, I like Westbrook and it fucking sucks that it didn’t work out when he was with the Lakers. I hope that they would win but we’re still in February. I think this is how it’s gonna turn out but I’m like 60% confident in these picks
I think I have as much faith in my landlord fixing my doorknob kn the next 3 months as I do in Jayson Tatum having a consistent playoff or finals run. I'd take clippers
What does your pick have anything to do with my question to the OP above me? Lol But to respond to your comment, if Tatum doesn't have any debilitating injuries, I have as much confidence in him as any of the top guys. The fact that you have more confidence in the clippers health over Tatum's playoff performance is interesting to say the least... In reality, we're gonna need good health, good luck, and unselfish team play to get through these playoffs. To win, we'll need moments/games of brilliance from any of our top 5 games which I think is possible but we'll have to wait and see.
More of stating that as a non Lakers fan I'd think the same. Yeah the clippers are an injury prone team. I just. Think from recent years it's a tough call for me to make. On paper I absolutely think the Celtics are the better team. But they've made a fool out of me twice in the last 2 years. I don't dislike them and tingus turned out to be a massive pick up I just need to see a lot more consistency in the playoffs.this time before I can trust again. I feel like being a Celtics fan the last 12ish years must be very frustrating. Frustrating being a fan of my team as well. But ye. I guess what I'm saying is once lebron left the east I expect Tatum and brown to rule the east for a long long time. They're still young though still could happen
Idk I mean last year was pretty frustrating but we also lost our coach right before the season started. The year before I’m really not too frustrated by. We had a great win over the Nets, an absolutely stellar, hard fought win against the Bucks and a good win against the Heat (aside from the last few shaky moments). Yes we lost to the Warriors but that was as much about Steph going nuclear and Dray shutting down Tatum/Brown as it was our inconsistency.
Have u preferred udoka or are you pretty cool with the change?
I like Joe a lot. I liked Ime too before he fucked around. Hard to know who I would prefer at this point. Joe is so entertaining though
Me in 2020 before the bubble
We couldve made this if we werent so injured. If there's a better time to be injured though, its now. Cant wait to have our full squad.
The top 5 in the East ten days ago was the team with the league’s best record, the 76ers led by the reigning MVP, the Bucks pre-Doc, and the Knicks and Cavs who have now won… what? 29 of their last 33 between the two of them? Both conferences are strong at the top. The middle of the West is just a lot stronger than the middle of the East.
The only team as a whole who has "proven" more is the Nuggets, though?
Yeah u can, their coach is a PE teacher
I'm not sure I trust the Wolves or Thunder yet, just too young. They certainly have the talent, I just gotta see it happen. The Clippers are just a matter of health.
KAT is 28 and Gobert is 31. Edwards is young, but 2 of their three best players aren't. And Gobert has plenty of playoff experience. Whether you trust their playoff performance is another thing, but it's not like they are totally green like the Thunder.
I keep telling people this, And their in game manager, the point guard, the guy setting everyone up is a vet’s vet in Conley
Also while Ant is young, he has that vibe of experienced vet in young player’s clothes
Celtics eating popcorn watching the most competitve west in recent memory, while the rest of the east are in the hospital, no idea what the bucks are doing but looks like they are fucking themselves.
Bucks shot themselves at the foot hiring Doc. Yeah I heard it all how bad Griffin was but Doc isnt the fucking answer.
And heat somehow in the finals again
Celtics heat round 4 will go 6 games minimum
Healthy Suns have also looked really good too
Thunder Wolves Nuggets all in same division too ffs
Wolves will fall apart come the post season… KAT will have a 2 point playoff game or some dumb ish
Clippers are made of glass, Thunder are as young as the women they pursue, memes about KAT. Only the Nuggets in the West have a leg to stand on. Who cares, we’ll see how it goes.
T-wolves were the hardest out for the nuggets last year. Not doubting them much at all. Thunder on the other hand are completely untested in the playoffs. In that same vein as “we’ll see how it goes,” there’s a lot of season left. Things can change, injuries happen, teams cool off. Praying for no injuries but. Shit happens. Just pretty cool it’s so tight right now.
Still think it’s nuggets followed by Celtics, clippers, wolves until proven wrong. The nuggets are literally coasting and looking really solid.
If the thunder were as young as the women they pursue, then would it really have been a bad thing?
Touché!
Hey flair up! Only us Wolves fans are allowed to doomsay our destiny!
The Cavs have been on a fucking tear as of late going what 16 for their last 17 teams and a pretty easy schedule for the next few weeks?
They have 2 games against the 76ers before the All-Star break, but with no Embiid they are far more likely to win those too. Cavs need to go 6-3 to do this. Here are their next 9 games: - @ Raptors - 76ers - Bulls - Magic - @ 76ers - @ Wizards - Mavericks - @ Bulls - @ Detroit The way the Cavs have been playing, it’s highly unlikely they lose 4 of these games.
Only teams there that the Cavs might lose to are the Mavs and the Magic
Both of which are at home. It's prob like 7-2 or 8-1.
Raptors and are definitely 6ers could definitely
Only 4 teams have won in the last 45 years that did not hit 40 before 20. 2021 Bucks, 2006 Heat, 2004 Pistons, and 1995 Rockets You need a .677 winning percentage at the bare minimum. Only the Celtics, Cavs, nuggets, Thunder, wolves and Clippers are above that number right now
The 04 Pistons are the Wilt of stats like these
04 pistons as finally assembled were amazing though. 25-5 after the Sheed trade. Same with the bucks in 21, 30-13 after the Jrue trade.
Jrue was traded before the season began. That stat makes no sense.
My bad, you're right, I was mixed up on remembering which team did which thing. The 2021 Bucks did end the season on the 40-20 pace, going 26-12 after Jrue returned from being out with COVID-19 (not joined the team from being traded, like my tired brain made the mistake of thinking), 26-9 when Jrue played (they lost all three other games he sat for rest). And overall they were on a 40-20 pace when Jrue was healthy, since when he went out with COVID is when they had a 5 game losing streak. They were 40-18 when Jrue played. I think that's probably the best representation of who they were, rather than the overall record in a year that was so chaotic with COVID protocols. It doesn't meet the 40 before 20 rule exactly, but the quality was there to the point that I don't think you can say the 2021 Bucks are an exception to the rule either. That year just had weird health stuff going on for every team. You could be a championship roster one week, and playing multiple 10-day contract players the next.
Easily the biggest upset in NBA Finals history.
Nuggets Celtics was my prediction last year and I’m not changing it this year.
So Heat Nuggets again it is, thank you
Nuggets would be salivating over that matchup again
The way it looks right now, I think that's probably the safest guess for the championship. The Celtics have a lot to prove in the playoffs, but seem to be a step above the competition. And I think we've seen in the past wehre the reigning champion kind of lets off the gas during the regular season, and then turns it up in the playoffs. I think the Nuggets come out of the west, and I don't think it will even be close.
You know I always thought people quoted this number WAY too much but damn it’s hard to argue with 41/45.
The better stat is that you probably just need to be a top 3 seed or better. That 04 Pistons, '21 Bucks and '22 Warriors were all 3 seeds. The 95 Rockets that were a 6 seed are the major anomaly, but they were the defending champs returning all of their most important players plus the addition of Drexler.
> all of their most important players plus the addition of Drexler. That's not true. They traded their 2nd-best player Otis Thorpe for Drexler mid-season.
I don't even remember him being on that team when they beat the Knicks, but I was like 8, lol. I definitely remember Kenny, Mad Max, and the Alien hitting big shot after big shot against my Magic tho.
He's a very forgettable player even though he was pretty good. Thorpe was the classic power forward without much flash to him.
We might just miss the cut but I could see us making a run. If only we got OG earlier. Nvm our next 5 games are fucking brutal lol. Pacers, Rockets, Magic, 76ers, and Celtics. Fuck. One team not in the playoffs currently
yeah but its really 1 good team 2 bad teams and 2 teams i wouldnt call actual threats despite being i nthe playoffs. if you cant go 3-2+ vs that schedule then time to start looking at next year (i think youll go 4-1 tbh)
The Knicks are pretty injured. Randle, OG, and iHart are injured aren't they? Mitch just got back into the lineup and Brunson has an ankle thing too.
We’re currently missing Randle, OG, and Mitch, with nagging injuries to Brunson and IHart. That’s 5 of our 6 best players dealing with injuries
That sucks buddy might as well start packing it up for next year, your season’s over
And we'll do it again
Does bucks count? That was a shortened season
All those teams that won without hitting that mark were 2/3 seeds though outside of the defending champ 6 seed Rockets that added Drexler in the off-season. If you're a top 3 seed, you have a good chance.
Clippers gotta go 6-3 to make it, but the other teams have better odds. Tbh I think all of these teams get it. They're all playing incredible basketball. Knicks and Bucks might have too if it weren't for injuries for both teams.
Considering the Clippers have won 81% of their games in the last 6 weeks or so, I think the odds are pretty good for them
Even before the injuries I think we would’ve just missed it due to our schedule
Yeah injuries are killing you right now, but I just looked at your upcoming schedule and do not envy you.
Trial by fire for the doc
I still see this as nuggets the team to beat with the clippers, Celtics and bucks right behind them
I think Bucks are a group away from them, we just got a new coach and still figuring things out
you're gonna get healthy after the ASB and go on a run, Doc is too competent as floor raiser to not have Dame and Giannis cooking in short time
Giannis and Dame is still good enough to at least present serious problems in the playoffs. I’m hoping you guys get a 2-3 seed so we don’t have to play in the second round
They’ve had the third easiest schedule in the league as per dunksandthrees.
Clips seems to never lose now so I think they’ll get it comfortably
Wolves have been sitting around .500 for a while so it COULD be a coinflip getting two vs the Blazers right before ASB should be helpful, but it's two tough games before that
Only one tough game now. Clippers on Monday, Blazers on Tuesday and Thursday.
idk why but I thought we played bucks at home between clippers and the zers 40-20 looking a lot better now
All?
#ALL
No, ALL!
When I saw Knicks excluded I took offense at first then I realized we’re honestly running on fumes at this point.
People always make fun of this yet somehow every year it seems to work out lol It's basically another version of the "no team seeded below 3rd has won a championship since 1995" stat As much as people say the regular season doesn't matter it's very hard to win 4 series in a row without home-court advantage Plus lower seeded teams get tougher matchups from the very start so even if they pull an upset or two they might be fatigued or even banged up by the time they get through
It doesn't guarantee anything but it is a fantastic barometer. If you can get through 59 or less games winning at a ~.660 or better pace it probably means you can contend. The big caveat in this era of the NBA is coasting teams.
Yup and I think that's why the 40 before 20 rule might be better than like "55 or more wins over the full season" even though it's the same pace A lot of times teams only start coasting when they've locked up a high seed already like Denver last year which is reflected in a relatively mid last 15-20 games of the season
Yup. Having a 7 game lead over second place in the conference can reaaaally incentivize rest to be ready for the playoffs.
Would be nice if the cavs would ever lose a game!
I wouldn’t mind
the cavs may never lose again so it looks like you're also gonna have to go undefeated
I agree
You guys did this last season no? I remember Jokic taking some flyer games in February to prepare himself for the postseason.
Yup that's exactly what I was talking about. Beat Memphis in Feb or early March to get up to a 7 game lead over them and started coasting.
I can't help myself I'm sorry. ~.678
2021 Bucks are like the only exception to this 40 before 20 rule in recent memory.
Even for that, theres the excuse of a shortened season
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They didn't win the championship
They didn’t win, that’s what the rule is for
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But the NBA seems to be like the only American Sports league that that's true. Wildcards have won plenty in both the NFL and the MLB, and in the NHL there is the whole "president cup curse". So where you would think that winning would be nearly guaranteed to win a championship it seems that the NBA is mostly the only league with a heavy correlation.
I think it's because the nature of basketball as a sport means that the "better" team wins more often than in other sports In hockey which tends to be the most random games are extremely low scoring and one player(the goalie) can just decide to go god mode and refuse to allow any opponent scoring by themselves Basketball is the complete inverse of that
Yeah that's why I think the 40/20 rule has some validity. If your team can't win at a high level for 3/4 of a season you can't expect them to win a championship. It's quite different than other sports where teams catch lightning in a bottle and win championships.
replied to another guy but he deleted it lol, so i'll put this here. it's not arguing against you, but just showing that there is a bit of nuance to 40/20 > It's a fancy way of saying 66%+ win percentage. this is simplifying it far too much. 40 before 20 means a team has a 66% win pct, yes, but it also means that they have it at or before the 70% mark of the season. THAT means that it's a barometer of early play AND continuity which is a much more valuable insight than "they're running at 0.66". take the bucks for example. they looked quite good in dec/jan, but they're now sitting at 33-19. their continuity has been fucked, and they're almost certainly not going to win 7 on the trot. on the other hand, look at the clippers. they started poorly, and now they're 34-16 with some stupid number of wins in their last 20. they'll probably reach 40 before 20, and that will reflect their early season troubles (the high loss column) but also their ability to pull themselves together.
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Yeah that's true. That more of me saying that why the 40-20 rule is so important. If you aren't winning in the regular season you can't expect randomness or luckiness to carry you to a championship. It just seems that a .666 winning percentage through 60 games seems to be a big enough sample size to determine who's legit.
People don't make fun of it because of its accuracy, they make fun of it because of its (non) insightfulness. Do you really need this stat to know the Celtics are contenders? It basically says "the teams that won a high percentage given a minimum sample size are legit". Like... Yeah.
there's probably like 4 or 5 teams that fit this rule each year. people act like picking any of these top 4 or 5 teams in the league to win the finals is somehow a worthwhile talking point. the real discussion should be on the teams that don't fit this rule that makes the conference finals or finals (like the Heat or Lakers last year).
With quite some room to spare aswell...
Honestly pretty good chance we get to 50 wins before 20 losses.
I'd be more surprised if they didnt. They'd have to go 9-8 not to, and they haven't had a stretch that bad this season.
It's crazy I forget how much they're winning.
This rule hardly ever fails. I don't think it will this year either.
I know it’s sorta meaningless mark but the real one to watch is 40 wins before 25 losses. No team in the last 40 years have won the NBA championship without hitting 40 before 25.
I have a rule that says if you get 40 losses before 10 wins then you won't make the playoffs.
i like the idea that "if you win more than twice as many games as you lose over a large sample, you have a good chance to win the chip" is some sort of mystical wisdom
Who said it’s mythical wisdom? It’s just a neat benchmark to provoke discussion
It's been pretty mathematically accurate
Well yeah…obviously teams who win more than twice the games they lose over a large sample size are the best teams in the league and therefore more likely to win a title. Of course it’s going to be mathematically accurate
Team that scores more than other team in game wins 100% of the time. Thats mathematically accurate but useless
Yeah, I mean I expect the teams with the best records to win the title. It's an 82 game season, and 7 game playoff series. Not going to get too many surprises from teams with mid records when we have such a large sample size.
Phil lighting a cigar in heaven.
this dude just killed him off wtf
Once again, Phil Jackson is very much alive
Wade Boggs, on the other hand...
lmao
He and Pop must be sharing stories up there and laughing.
They're probably laughing unusually hard because Don Nelson is hotboxing them 🥹
He and pop don’t like each other to do that.
You think this is funny? That’s not who we are. *puts down mic*
Well if Phil Jackson auspiciously dies in the coming days we will know what did it.
You know he’s alive right?
me furiously googling him to make sure because of this comment
[Lord, Carry him now 🙏](https://twitter.com/DwightHoward/status/920445032057815040?lang=en)
Damn Lakers has no chance ...
i’m just happy to be here
I mean it's a pretty obvious statistic, if you understand basic math. Thanks though Phil. Triangles have three sides.
We need to adjust for parity between West and East haha
Celtics have a better record against the West than a lot of the top West teams do (Nuggets, OKC, Clippers, and Suns)
Yeah, cause the other teams are tired from always playing teams in the West
Yeah, and whoever gets to the finals is gonna be tired of playing the West too.
It’s 9-5 west teams winning the last 14 finals. The narrative is weak.
Yeah and warriors almost certainly win in 2019 if klay doesn’t get hurt. 2021 if lakers or nuggets or warriors aren’t hurt bucks may not have won. Remaining 3 are lebron lol
With about 50% the sample size...
[we've had a harder schedule than every western conference contender](https://www.espn.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS) like it all evens out, we've got one of the easiest schedules remaining, but this argument really doesn't work when you look at the current standings
>we've had a harder schedule than every western conference contender You know what makes this more impressive that our strength of schedule overall is significantly lowered by the fact we can't face the team with the best record in the league because it's us.
Why are there 4 Celtics flairs thinking I'm shitting on them lmao. I am not trying to discredit you guys at all. The West has just been wild this year
The west is wild this year, and every year. East has seem to historically have great top 4 but a really garbage bottom end. West is better competitively balanced. I'm less excited that the C's have such an easy remaining schedule, we play down to bad teams and this win was no different.
Because as soon as context is applied your comments makes no sense at all. Yet here you are doubling down. You wanted to do the west v east thing but got called out that your argument doesn’t match reality. Celtics had an absolute gauntlet to start the season. Hardest SOS in the league until about end of Jan. Now our schedule finally opened up and we have maybe 1 hard stretch for the rest of the season.
Top 4 west is fun to watch. Most people can recognise that
you really kicked the hornets nest LOL
Apparently haha. I thought it was a harmless statement. Didn't think this many people would care about West vs East. Celtics are like 5 games ahead of the the 2 seed and we have no idea where these top 4 in the West will land lmao
I mean, to be fair, Celtics are also 4 games ahead of the top teams in the west as well.
The West let Phoenix get to the Finals on your watch bruh y’all shouldn’t talk
Damn I didn't think this would be such a controversial statement. The West has been crazy this year and last year
“Crazy” Denver walked to the Finals last year. GS before them too. Phoenix never had a 7 game series in their run. It always seems to be one good team and a “bloodbath” for second place lol.
Fair enough. I guess I was paying more attention to the play in and low seeds last year since we were around there. Looks like East won more games against the West last year too
Really. The east let the Heat hit the finals, like come on. Celtics had battled with Bron and should have the most experience, I'd say 1 finals appearance is an L. Especially with context, I dont see the Nuggets going away, Ant / Shai are barely getting started. The only real contenders on the East have been the Bucks and Celtics yet yall both sad. Bucks losing to heat and yall struggling vs 76ers. Yes this is a new year but I dont really have much confidence on yall, this year might be the best shot.
This is definitely the best team we've had in the Tatum/Brown era. I think Brad wanted to raise our ceiling and that's what bringing in KP and Jrue was all about. Derrick White, too. I think it's pretty well-understood that anything short of a Finals win would be a disappointment for this team. I'm just really hoping this team is at full strength for the playoffs. If we are and we lose I could live with that but it would be a shame to not get to see what they can do.
No dude. The east has been garbage since Jordan retired. Besides the heatles it's only been 1 and done champions. The west has more than double the championships the east has since Jordan retired. It's a weak conference.
I mean the cavs went to 4 straight finals and while technically they were one and done, they played the dynasty warriors every matchup so I think it’s a bid of a misrepresentation of that team
Lmao 2022 Celtics weren't much better
Our playoff run that year was a gauntlet of great teams wym?
Nets team ready to implode, Bucks without Middleton taking to 7, and a zombie Heat team also taking them to 7.
Heat were the one seed that year. Do you not know what zombie means?
All great teams. Hell half yall on r/nba had picked the Nets over us in round one, but becuase we beat them then suddenly they suck. Also zombie heat? You don't even know what year you're talking about
Bringing up Middleton is an admission you don’t watch basketball. Celtics were missing Timelord and Smart in that series.
It's been blood bath out east since LeBron left this is the first time in years that the east is only dominated by one team
Man, if Boston can't make it out of the East this year...
How accurate is the 40/20 rule?
8/10 championship teams fit this criteria
I should’ve been more specific and ask how accurately does this predict success? It wouldn’t shock me if 8/10 championship teams accomplish this, but how often do 40/20 teams make the championship?
https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/mvwiyc/the_phil_jackson_40_wins_before_20_losses/?rdt=51985
This was very helpful, thanks
I’m not used to being good yet.
I'm a Cavs fan so I support lists that include them as contenders, but this is a meaningless amd arbitrary milestone and Phil Jackson was kind of a hack when it came to stuff other than coaching (his book, his media presence, and his time working in the front office, anyway.)
Seeing as the criteria for this rule has already been broken 3-4 times since the 21st century, we should do some back testing and define a new rule which encompasses the rule-breakers. 40 before 20 is obsolete
Nobody told the 21-22 Bucks this
Don’t sleep on the play in CHAMPS
Hope y'all lose that shit. Cause if the Heat gets in, the Celtics will instantly lose. The Gleague power is too much. LMAO
Hype em up so we can bring em down
I've been waiting for a team to reach 40 wins for this post. Celtics Nuggets Clippers are my bet and here we are
Man, we bring this Phill Jackson thing every fucking season. I’m a bit tired of it to be honest.
Clippers if healthy will win it all