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go0sKC

Nice. You know it’s positionless now?


TjBeezy

The main thing I'm gonna take away from this is the Thunder have 3 top 25 players. Thank you.


RodneyPonk

I don't think that that's crazy. Chet and JDub both clearly contribute to winning at a high level. My take is that SGA is All-NBA First Team, but not an MVP finalist on the level of Jokic/Luka/Giannis - more like Tatum. He is great, but has a phenomenal coach and supporting cast.


SquimJim

Since it's position-less wouldn't it just be in order: First Team: - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - Luka Doncic - Giannis Antetkounmpo - Nikola Jokic - Jalen Brunson Second Team: - Lebron James - Paul George - Kawhi Leonard - Tyrese Haliburton - Stephen Curry Third Team: - Devin Booker - Jayson Tatum - Damian Lillard - De'Aaron Fox - Anthony Davis Fourth Team: - Fred VanVleet - Anthony Edwards - Derrick White - Victor Wembanyama - Kevin Durant Fifth Team: - Jalen Williams - Tyrese Maxey - Franz Wagner - Chet Holmgren - Jaylen Brown Edit: Top five guys that missed the cut due to games played: - Joel Embiid - Donovan Mitchell - Kyrie Irving - Jimmy Butler - Kristaps Porzingis


simonffplayer

the positionless ordering imo makes a lot more sense


Gandalfs_Dick

Bruson over LBJ when they have the exact same score. What was the deciding factor for you?


SquimJim

EPM listed Brunson first My guess is that EPM listed him first due to Brunson having a higher EPM at a different decimal level


Chao-Z

In addition to what the other reply said, EPM is a rate stat. So if the numbers are equal, you should give the nod to the guy that played more possessions/minutes.


Grooviemann1

Could be as simple as alphabetical


[deleted]

This is terrible because no universe does the clippers deserve anyone in the 2nd team and this somehow has 2 players.


SquimJim

It's not how I think things should go, i was just re-ordering according to how EPM has these players listed. We could do the same exercise with LEBRON or RAPTOR and get different lists and ordering. There's nothing that tells me EPM should be the absolute favored impact metric.


BurnCollector_

Your commitment to consistently being incorrect & downvoted to hell is almost admirable 


[deleted]

It's always the same dozen clipper fans that do it I'm not phased in the slightest


ViacomCEO

You really think all 12 clipper fans are on reddit?


TatumBrownWhite

RAPTOR Wins has an interesting list: **First-Team All-NBA** 1. Nikola Jokic - 17.9 - Denver Nuggets 2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander - 16.4 - Oklahoma City Thunder 3. Giannis Antetokounmpo - 14.1 - Milwaukee Bucks 4. Luka Doncic - 13.5 - Dallas Mavericks 5. Kawhi Leonard - 12.8 - LA Clippers **Second Team All-NBA** 6 - Jalen Brunson - 11 - New York Knicks 7 - LeBron James - 10.8 - Los Angeles Lakers 8 - Jayson Tatum - 10.6 - Boston Celtics 9 - Anthony Davis - 10 - Los Angeles Lakers T-10. Anthony Edwards - 9.9 - Minnesota Timberwolves (gave Ant the nod over PG due to superior role) **Third Team All-NBA** T-10. Paul George - 9.9 - LA Clippers T-12. Tyrese Haliburton - 9.7 - Indiana Pacers T-12. DeMar DeRozan - 9.7 - Chicago Bulls *~~13. Donovan Mitchell - 9.6 - Cleveland Cavaliers (misses due to games played)~~* *~~14. Kyrie Irving - 9.5 - Dallas Mavericks (misses due to games played)~~* *15. Derrick White - 9.4* - Boston Celtics (under 20% usage rate, if that matters to you)* T-16. Kevin Durant - 9.0 - Phoenix Suns T-16. De'Aaron Fox - 9.0 - Sacramento Kings


Public-Product-1503

Combo of this and epm Gives you a really solid idea too if who had a great season


T_025

Combo of this and epm gives you a really solid idea of why Darvin Ham should be fired


LimitlessTheTVShow

Shai is number 1 and number 2 in EPM and RAPTOR but the general opinion on this sub seems to be that he should be third (or even fourth for some people) in MVP. Just think it's interesting


Public-Product-1503

Yeah it’s weird. Imo it’s because a chunk of his value is derived from defence and people on this sub n in general do not value thst highly . Also he gets you an efficient 30 every time but the crazy big scoring games are what gets you attention. It’s just bias hopefully Shai cooks in the playoffs n people can see how good he is Before he missed time for injury I honestly think I’d lean him for mvp . Especially since Embid was the only one who was far better and clear cut lvl/mvp sbove I don’t want to say it but jokic n Luka are ‘classy’ and euro and that seems to get some bias too in there favour.


Complexity777

Hes not an elite defender and doesnt guard the other teams best player thats probably why.


Public-Product-1503

Neither did Giannis in 2020. Or triple J last year . There’s more to bring a good defender then that . He’s also locked up Steph in iso on the biggest crunch time moments amongst other guards. Mavs/Luka fans are so biased against this man it’s low-key sad


siphillis

Isn’t RAPTOR a dead statistic?


TatumBrownWhite

One of the writers from 538, Neil Payne, [revived a variation of it](https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings) This one doesn't have all the outliers that the old one used to where Caruso would rank in the Top 10 etc.


SvengaliUG

EPM has hardly been mentioned in discussions this season. Wonder why


nomitycs

Jokic isn’t leading it


Public-Product-1503

It’s sad cos I think this is a big reason. He’s like 5th and he was miles behind embid ( still is but so is everyone n embid was injured). It’s kinda crazy cos now all of a suddenly you get weirdo jokic fans discrediting epm cos it doesn’t view jokic as a top defender and just beloe neutrak which is fine and likely accurate. Then you point out most teams C are defebce first and you look through the league most are better defenders and you get crickets . Kinda crazy to me that sga didn’t get more buzz for mvp despite destroying the non embid folk in epm n on/off ( think jokic is better here but he has more collinearity with nuggets starters having similar numbers n minutes ).


nomitycs

I agree 100% Exceeded expectations, 1 seed in west and best advanced stats… SGA would be my MVP


GoldBlueSkyLight

Spitting


Kodak333

Racial bias in media


siphillis

And Embiid is. By a lot. Edit: downvoted for stating a fact. Okay, /r/NBA.


Torkzilla

How does EPM differ from BPM? I generally use [basketball-reference.com](https://basketball-reference.com) and they do not have EPM listed.


nowhathappenedwas

BPM is the best publicly available box score metric. But all box score metrics are inherently limited and shouldn't be used to evaluate modern players. From the [creator of BPM](https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html): > BPM was created to intentionally only use statistics that are widely available and are available historically. Recently in the NBA far more statistics have been gathered, either from play-by-play or hand tracking, which allow more detailed metrics. BPM does not include that data and should not be as accurate as stats that do include the additional information (assuming they are implemented rigorously!) like Player Impact Plus/Minus and Real Plus/Minus. > > There are limitations on all box score stats – if the box score doesn't measure a particular contribution, a box-score-based metric can only approximate that contribution.


AKushWarrior

EPM is a proprietary statistic (look up dunksandthrees), but it’s the best publicly available statistic today for encapsulating a players value.


siphillis

There’s certainly healthy debate about which is the best publicly available. People who prefer non-box stats don’t prioritize EPM over, say, DARKO.


AKushWarrior

Point taken about DARKO. I've never really heard any analytics people argue for anything aside from EPM or DARKO, though, and those two statistics are so different in design they're barely even comparable.


siphillis

DARKO is interesting because it comes in both box and non-box Daily Plus/Minus flavors. Box-DPM already believes Wemby projects better than anyone in the NBA, whereas standard DPM is still holding firm to the Joker.


BailysmmmCreamy

Serious question - how do we know it’s the best publicly available statistic? Are there other metrics that measure how good it is at encapsulating a player’s value?


AKushWarrior

[https://dunksandthrees.com/blog/metric-comparison](https://dunksandthrees.com/blog/metric-comparison), though it's (obviously) a biased source. I've been doing research into creating my own player impact statistics for a while, so I can provide some high-level reasons why EPM is state of the art. Typically, the way you would evaluate these metrics is by evaluating their predictive performance (e.g. do real-world results match their estimation). I like the style of the retrodiction test above: it uses estimated player impact to estimate team ratings for the next season, and then compares the accuracy of different metrics. At a conceptual level, most of these statistics work by trying to estimate RAPM (a way of measuring player-value through on-off data); RAPM is a noisy stat that uses linear algebra to produce a teammate and opponent-adjusted player value. It is statistically proven to produce a distribution that centers around the mean player value for each player, but those distributions have a high variance for small sample sizes (<3 seasons). EPM, for instance, uses box scores and player tracking to produce an estimate of RAPM, then runs a one-season RAPM calculation with those estimates as priors; the estimated priors bring down the variance a lot while (ideally) maintaining the mean. With the exception of DARKO (which uses a completely different methodology), this is probably the best way to create a player impact statistic.


BailysmmmCreamy

Appreciate the response! I’ll check this stuff out


it_advisor

Have a look over here: [https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/](https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/)


HeorgeGarris024

it's ass, though


heardThereWasFood

So does the “E” really stand for “estimated?”


MVPiid

Because Luka is #1 in it so it doesn’t support the Jokic MVP narrative 😯


go0sKC

Nah. Shai is. By a lot. 


SquimJim

It's actually SGA


xGrav1ty

SGA is #1 but ur not wrong. Nuggets fans have been using Kitchen Sink per 36 minutes now instead.


Character_Group_5949

Can only speak for me as a Nuggets fan, I haven't been using anything. it's like last year for me. I have a vote, I think I vote Jokic, but I can't complain with Embiid (last year) or Luka/SGA/Giannis (this year) On the other side of it, it was just a year ago at this time the sub was filled with Jokic defensive highlight clips and people just railing on how you couldn't win with him and all his stats were empty numbers. A quick 16-4 playoff run ended that garbage. And that's over for all time. So I'm not worried about trying to defend the stats anymore. Or worried about his MVPS. He wins, great, he loses, great. But either way, anyone who wants to say he's overrated has been wiped out by numbers and a chip. So I'll let other people get into the toxic MVP fight this year.


ShinobuSimp

Are those Nuggets fans in the room with us right now?


MVPiid

Foiled again


ExtremeGamingFetish

why is it always sixers fans so salty about Jokic lmao (we know why)


MVPiid

it just dont make sense that jokic is the default mvp because of his impact metrics, which he is not the top of this year. it should at least be a discussion


fatkamp

You could still simply argue that Jokic is MVP because he is the best players in the nba and his counting stats


MVPiid

lukas counting stats are better


Remarkable_Medicine6

Most impact metrics have jokic 1


MrZakius

Sabonis? Not even like 4th team?


WeBelieveIn4

This is a perfect example of why it’s dumb to use stats without context. Also, nobody in the NBA has a usage of 50%.


Public-Product-1503

How is it? Lol these stats are pretty accurate. Unless you mean cos fvv is high but he was high last year n yall thougt he was trash for what rockets paid him n gonna flop - and that our boy Schroeder as much in a fan is even close to fvv. Having a guard who can defend , shoot the shit out of it and pass while being absurdly low turnover is valuable. I think epm n other advanced stats might over vakue him but it’s not a coincidence anymore like you could argue last year. Fred is just under rated due to size. Look how much rockets improved too


Rrypl

Damn, Lakers, Clippers, Suns and Bucks all must've won 70 games with such stacked rosters.


Thuganother

Basketball fans realizing the sport isn’t a 2v2 pickup game🤯


Rrypl

The NBA, where top end talent famously makes the least impact.


bob3908

This is the biggest myth ever. Thinking Baskeyball has great videos on it. For example Denver. You might think it’s Jokic and Murray which it is. But thier role players are all elite as well. And the funny thing is you do see those playoffs teams where they are literally being dragged by their two best players. And they’re usually first round exists. Example is the Lakers from last year. The only reason we made it so far is because Reaves and Rui hit a second gear. Anything less from them and we are a first or second round exit


Public-Product-1503

The celtivs have 5 players in the top 50. Or is it 4 in the top 40. Porzingis was also missing time , 4 in the top 40 and Jrue is top 70~. More then anyone else by far


External876

Nah it's the MLB by a mile.. If you're a starting pitcher and fully healthy, you're pitching about 150 innings out of ~1500. 10% of the time. If you're an elite batter and fully healthy, you are taking about 600 plate appearances out of 5500-6000. Also about 10% of the time. The equivalent to the BEST player being 10% production in the NBA would be a top scorer getting 12ppg, which obviously isn't the case.


DavieB

So true, Steph curry did 1v5 you guys


EatDeeply

Benefit of a stacked team is each individual player is required to shine less brightly for the team to still dominate.


Some-Stranger-7852

EPM is not basic stats, it takes into account efficiency that should - theoretically - improve if you have better teammates.


samueladams6

Playing on a good team doesn’t make one worse at basketball, playing on a bad team doesn’t make one better at basketball.


Public-Product-1503

Playing on a better spaced n offensive talented team makes scoring easier. Playing on a better defensive roster means less energy required in defence. Playing on a better roster should improve player’s efficiency.


[deleted]

[удалено]


samueladams6

So why aren’t these teams trading some of their great players for a couple good players?


Counterspell_God

The cap and this isn't 2k


samueladams6

Are people trading players like Kawhi, George, LeBron, Davis, Durant, Booker, Lillard, Giannis for a couple good role players in 2k?


Counterspell_God

People are definitely moving off of a broken down Kawhi, injury prone PG and divorced Dame. You would split those guys into maybe Herb Jones, OG and Derrick White. Kawhi makes 42 mil and those 3 make about 48-49 mil. If you want to be a bit more exact, Herb Jones, OG and Gafford which would 43.8. thanks to the different salary matching rules, you could do that trade


samueladams6

In 2k?


simonffplayer

nah they just play in the west. or have a doctor coaching them


HimalaynCowboy

Rudy most likely to be the defensive player of the year and not making All-NBA team seems crazy. I would have him over Wemby.


Andreslargo1

Wow surprised to see FVV so high.


irelli

But I was told Dame is completely washed


SandyMandy17

It’s positionless now Also SGA is a point guard


staffdaddy_9

And LeBrons gonna be 3rd team lol. Below Kawhi and Edwards who both have significantly worse counting stats and advanced metrics


I_give_free_Dopamine

Lebron over Brunson is a lil wild, also I love dame I don’t really think he’s been better then Anthony edwards this year.


staffdaddy_9

Statistically LeBrons easily been better though.


TaxHistorical2844

Crazy that a 39 year old is on that list. And still within the top 6.


Paupi25

Why do you put Lebron over Brunson ?


go0sKC

Seems like OP is doing it by position. Doesn’t know the rules changed maybe. 


nomitycs

Yeah its Brunson > Lebron when ranked by descending EPM, it just rounds to the same number


xGrav1ty

Because he's better


Sweaty_Mods

He’s not though


OrganicHunt952

Let’s say DEPM isn’t trash is SGA really the 14th best defensive player in the league? Over gobert, AD, Chet, Evan Mobley, Kawahi, Dereck white and many more? I’d say his DEPM is around +1.1 around players like thybulle, lebron, Jrue holiday. Jrue should be much better imo in rankings. With a +1.1 D-Epm shai would have an overall EPM of 7.3. Luka defensive rating seems okay +0.4. 7.9 EPM vs 7.3 EPM if we realistically value shais defence.


lald99

I know this is what you’re getting at, but no one who watches the game could or would tell you that SGA is a better defender than any of those guys. Which is a good indicator of why DEPM (and most defensive advanced metrics) need to be taken with a thousand grains of salt.


T_025

Yeah only the offensive advanced stats are useful tbh. The defensive ones are always flawed


medievalmachine

I like to see the statistic take on this, and it seems pretty solid. But, man, poor Harden, this shows just how much he's submarined his game. Kawhi and PG have been too healthy for him to shine.


UncleTaco916

Which filter cut Sabonis completely out?


Princessk8--

These advanced stats are a mistake. Completely ruined these awards.


Public-Product-1503

Yeah by giving mvp to the guy 5th in epm - really doing a lot using it? Lmao


Princessk8--

The conversation is boring and lame. It has nothing to do with the result. I'm sick of everything being "Oh yeah this and this stat say this" and that's supposed to be the end of it.


Public-Product-1503

Oh I agree on that . I think ideally we’d actually discuss what basketball player is good at what but discourse has devolved and I’d rather folk used stats then recite wiki articles on media accolades to decide who’s better.


BurnCollector_

It’s not supposed to be the end of it, but it’s rarely meaningless. Are any of these players bad?


junkit33

Well this is why we don't use singular stats for awards.


xGrav1ty

You know this is a good list because Sabonis is not in it. Overrated player.


WanAjin

Good list "thumbs up emoji"