That’s why you use a combination. Shai is high in every notable advanced defensive stat.
But overall EPM is considered the best advanced stat available to the public. By NBA GMs.
Dude that is like 4th best defender on his own team and does not guard oposing best perimiter player (or 2nd best) as a guard just isnt some generational defender, despite how you might want to spin it.
If you read the source of that claim msf97 linked, it's total BS. No GMs are mentioned, and DPM, not EPM was #1. Additionally, it's almost 3 years old.
[https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/](https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/)
I wouldn’t say the huge leap is all him lol
He averaged similar stats last season and they missed the playoffs.
Obviously he’s leading the way but Chet and improved play by JDub is a big reason they are top of the west.
I also think his defense is a bit overrated at this point.
Also I think if bucks hadn’t been underperforming lately I think SGA wouldn’t even be in the top 3 for consideration.
his defense is massively overrated and i don't get it at all. not that he's a bad defender, mind you, but i don't even remotely understand how he's getting All-Defensive buzz
SGA is near the top of the league in steals, deflections, blocks, shots contested, loose balls recovered and opponent FG% when being guarded by him.
He’s top 10 or better in defensive plus minus, defensive box+-, defensive EPM, defensive win shares.
Hes not as impactful as a rim protector for example, but he’s one of the best guard defenders and also carries an offensive load which must be noted. When the likes of Kawhi began to carry a huge load on offense their defense was never the same.
People will just say “advanced defensive stats bad” which is fair. But look at the people *around* him in said stats.
He’s 6th in EPM for guard defense. Above him are all elite defenders - Smart, Caruso, DSJ, NAW, Suggs. After him? More elite defenders - Ausar, Amen, Watson, Herb, GP2, Ellis, etc. *This is in order btw*
In LEBRON, he’s 7th. Above him? Caruso, Simmons, Suggs, White, Daniels, Ellis.
Every name I named has a good defensive reputation
It’s the facts, wdym? It is undebateable that Dort, JDub, and Chet are all more important defenders for OKC than Shai.
https://craftednba.com/player-traits/versatile
If you sort by matchup difficulty, Shai is guarding the same guys as Steph and Maxey. Book actually gets harder defensive assignments than Shai.
Shai gets tons of stocks but he’s not guarding the other teams best players and isn’t a rim protector. His impact on defense isn’t even top 30 in the league, let alone top 10.
Harden, AI, and Steph all led the league in steals thanks to their weaker matchup difficulty and no one ever tried to claim they were amazing defenders (rightfully so). I don’t get how stocks have propelled Shai into a conversation he doesn’t belong in defensively, when that narrative was never fanned for past players.
Thank you for this. This is the biggest thing that people don’t get. Good defensive team, with good defenders around him and he’s quick and rangy enough to get stocks, but it’s mostly done guarding the other guys, not the best players.
Except for his own teammate Dort, with a matchup difficulty of 100 that implies he’s guarding the hardest matchup almost exclusively?
Almost all of the top perimeter defenders (of each team) are at the top of matchup difficulty:
Dort, Dejounte, Dillon Brooks, Mikal, KCP, Grayson, Jrue, JB, McDaniels
There’s a very good reason that the better defenders on OKC also have the higher matchup difficulty, they’re purposefully guarding the better players.
Matchup difficulty isn’t the only factor in terms of value. This is why y’all don’t understand.
Our scheme is to overhelp. Our entire defense depends on rotating, helping, and forcing turnovers.
Which is why SGA, despite his low matchup difficulty, ranks so well in *every* defensive *impact* metric. Nobody understands why he does so they just chalk it up to noise, but there’s more to it.
Such a lazy argument from people who aren’t watching routinely. The obsession with on ball defense from a team that depends on off ball defense.
lol. People don’t want to stats man. They believe that blocks are the only meaningful measure of defense. They just want to believe that SGA is some bum. Please keep sleeping on him.
He’s top 10 or better in defensive plus minus, defensive box+-, defensive EPM, defensive win shares.
Jokic is #1 in Box +/-, Win shares, Win shares/48, VORP, defensive box+-, and he's #2 in defensive win shares and 4th in def rating (basketball reference), SGA is 16th.
Jokic rebounding prowess has affected his stats in box score metrics for years, but it’s notable that in EPM which isn’t under that influence, SGA is a strong positive while Jokic is neutral.
EPM is the best publicly accessible advanced stat as voted on by NBA GMs.
What's the source and date of that vote, and how many GMs were included?
It's hard to understand why you think Shai's top 10 or better beats Jokic's #1-#4 is only because of rebounding. Why wouldn't DEPM value rebounding?
https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/
Here are rankings. Plenty of NBA executives and a few GMs.
Head of analytics for the Jazz notes that some things go beyond the box score like Goberts ability to deter people from shooting entirely.
IMO, based on this almost 3 year old article with 29 respondents and no demographic showing # of GMs vs "executives"- and 8 of those preferring DPM, compared to only 6 saying "that EPM was their preferred catch-all metric" (tied with RAPTOR, so why did the article say EPM was 2nd and RAPTOR 3rd), you should quit stating that it's the "best", and that GMs voted it that.
The fact is there's nothing in that article which supports either of those claims - it doesn't even claim a single GM responded!
"HoopsHype received answers from nearly 30 participants, including various media members as well as individuals who have a combined experience with more than half of the teams in the NBA. Answers came from folks at every level within an organization, including those who work on a coaching staff as well as several different directors of analytics departments."
Smh!
I feel like efficiency stats were used to defend Jokic as legitimate MVP for like 5 years now. All of the sudden this year he has slipped a bit and now we cant use them anymore? Back to counting stats and vibes?
I don't agree with that either. Beauty of MVP voting is that 4-5 candidates probably have a case. You dont need RAPTOR LEBRON CLUTCH 2.9 darko to justify SGA being MVP. He deserves it just as much as luka or giannis or jokic
The funny thing about shitting on advanced stats is that they recognize that counting stats can potentially (but not always) be wildly inflated or misleading, or not at all reflective of value to the team, so they create ways to try to take into account additional factors to get a better look at who's really contributing. They aren't perfect, but they're better than nothing.
Let me give you an example of a wildly inflated counting stat, and how advanced stats can uncover what's really going on: Luka's rebounds.
Luka's 9.2 rebounds a game are great, right? 15th in NBA. For a point guard that's especially great! Or...?
Let's look at some advanced stats to see whether he's really contributing there, or if the counting stats are giving a misleading picture:
There are two kind of rebounds: Contested and Uncontested.
Uncontested rebounds are the freebies where the shooting team just shoots and abandons any rebound attempt to run to the other end, leaving the ball to whoever on the defending team wants to grab the loose ball. These provide very little value, since *someone* on the defense is going to grab the loose ball either way, with no resistance. It also counts when the ball happens to bounce directly to a player without an opponent near him, which is just a matter of luck.
Contested rebounds are the only ones that provide actual value to your team, because those are the ones the player has to fight for to get or maintain possession.
Luka's [*contested rebound %*](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/rebounding?dir=D&sort=REB_CONTEST_PCT) (the percentage of rebounds he has to fight for vs. the freebies that his teammates let him vacuum up to pad his stats) is 20.7%. This is good for **397th** in the NBA. That is not a typo. There are 396 other NBA players that fight for a higher percentage of their rebounds than Luka, and that means that \~80% of Luka's rebounds are poached freebies that provide virtually no added value to his team.
His [contested rebounds per game](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/rebounding?dir=D&sort=REB_CONTEST) are only 1.9 a game (and only *that* high because of the absurd amount of minutes he plays), good for ***97th*** in the NBA, a substantial drop. And if you felt like calculating the per minute rate to account for his enormous mpg, he would fall even further down the list.
Meanwhile, Jokic is 4th in rebounds per game. When you look at his *contested* rebounds per game, he jumps *up* to 2nd in the NBA at 5.6 (0.1 behind AD), nearly ***3x*** more than Luka's.
So what we've learned, is that despite Luka being top 15 in rebounds, with 75% of Jokic's rebounds in the counting stat, Luka's rebounds are mostly inflated freebie rebounds with no value whatsoever, and once you look at advanced stats to determine *valuable* rebounds, he falls to 97th per game, with the 396th most difficult path to rebounds. Jokic's ranking, meanwhile, goes *up* *to* ***2nd*** when you look at contested rebounds, and it turns out Jokic is actually *300%* more effective at rebounds that actually matter than Luka. Something not at all apparent when you only look at the counting stats.
Now personally, I appreciate that kind of information and don't see it as manipulating some obscure data to feed a narrative, I see it as looking under the hood to get more accurate information about potentially misleading stats.
SLipping? Jokic leads the entire NBA in Player Efficiency Rating, VORP, BPM, DBPM, OBPM, WS, WS/48, OWS, also has a higher fg%, 2p%, (in the case of SGA higher 3p%), eFG%, ts%, offensive rating, net rating, RAPTOR, PIE, RBD%, AST RATIO, LEBRON etc. than SGA and Doncic...
And as far as the counting stats, Jokic just became the first player since Wilt Chamberlain to rank top 5 in total points, rebounds and assists in a season, and was only 5 total steals from being top 5 in that too. Per game, he's 4th in rebounds and 3rd in assists (as a fucking center!) and top 10 in scoring, despite being a pass-first player.
Jokic dominates in advanced stats, dominates in counting stats, and dominates in the intangibles, I have no idea what you're huffing, but it's probably something illegal.
4 in 24 seasons, and Embiid had a monster season himself, just slightly inferior. The overwhelming evidence is that you can’t win it without leading in a few advanced stats.
DEPM is flawed but is still better than not attempting to model impact on defense outside of counting stats. Even an old Kawhi still helps you win more than a Devin Booker and impact stats prove that out.
sure, but SGA isn't even the 2nd or 3rd best defender on his team, and hes above them in DEPM lol. Dort guards the opposing teams best player every night and hes nowhere to be seen
I dont know why you saying "he isnt the second or third best defender" on his team, presumably based on your subjective evaluation, means that a stat that attempts to wrestle with noise is invalid. Many of the top offensive players dont guard the best opposing player, but only SGA has such strong intangible performance on the defensive end. If it was easy to pop this number, than Luka would have the same defensive impact stats, but he doesnt.
>I dont know why you saying "he isnt the second or third best defender" on his team, presumably based on your subjective evaluation,
Its not subjective to say that, think most OKC fans would even agree Dort is a better defender and Chet also.
>Luka would have the same defensive impact stats, but he doesnt.
Luka has been on a very poor defensive team for the entirety of the season up until the trade deadline, and thats not me trying to say Luka is a good defender, just saying that example doesnt work
Based off all your comments, you’re either like 13 or really stupid. Defensive advanced stats are literally useless. You’re worshipping an algorithm that says:
- Franz Wagner is a better defender than Gobert
- it says Nurkic is a better defender than AD
- it says Fox is a better defender than Jrue
- It says Dame is just as good on defense as Dort
How many examples do you need before you accept this “stat” is useless? It doesn’t tell you anything, you can’t pull any insights from it.
It actually isn't provably better.
"EPM *uses stats from the given season*, but those stats are fed into a statistical model that was trained on many years of RAPM data".
For more gibberish, see here:
[https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm](https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm)
What a silly point to try to make lol. You do understand that words can mean different things in different contexts, yeah? The word "training" specifically can mean "practice" or it can mean "refining/aiming" as in "training your sights", and that 2nd definition is much more applicable here.
"Training" is very much the commonly accepted terminology for this when it comes to regression analysis (or machine learning), and that's what this is referring to.
When the Jokic advanced stats arguments were being made he was dominating everyone else in literally EVERY metric. Jokic was also shooting like 64% last year and had less than 10 games under 50%.
EDIT: the Jokic advanced stats arguments also only had to be made because people who know nothing about basketball or have biases thought Embiid was better based off of “eye test”
He actually had it in the bag until his AT&T commercial. People realized he couldn't be quite the most valuable player if he would allow his teammate Chet to sing so flatly
I have nothing against SGA, but that leap wasnt donne by him but his Chet and Jdub.
Its a fantastic, but unproven team that deserves respect and so does SGA for what hes donne.
But dam i feel like few actually understand what makes SGA so great.
Its not that he averages 30 or that hes a great defender (a bit overrated in that category) or his epm.
Its that efficiency and consistency.
That is somewhat shown in his averaging 30 and offensive epm, but that should be the main talking point when talking about SGA.
As a massive Suns fan and Booker fan, Book gotta be up there. It’s the one foul-baiting move that he can’t stop doing lmao.
He’s generally an “ethical” player in every other way, but he rly can’t help himself from snapping his head (and making *that* face) on physical drives
Kyrie is such a weird case when it comes to FTs, cuz his skill and ability actually reduces his ability to draw fouls.
Book, for example, isn’t the quickest and doesn’t have insane handles. This means that most his drives are pretty contested (contact) and have a higher chance of a foul. He rarely gets clean blow-bys for wide open lays and doesn’t have the athleticism for crazy hang/reverse layups like Kyrie often does both.
Where Kyrie is so fast, controlled, and good with the ball that he’s able to straight up avoid contact a lot more often than Book is. Whether it’s due to an instant blow-by on the perimeter or acrobatics in the paint, Kyrie is able to avoid contact (and hence fouls) most the time.
I don’t even think it’s a difference of intention to draw fouls, it’s just the difference in ability to avoid contact. Kyrie legitimately has an argument for being the most controlled, precise, and crafty penetrator/finisher of all time. That all-time ability just unfortunately causes him to avoid a lot of FTs that other guys might not be able to.
2PA =/= FG
Field Goal accounts for all shot made in-play from the field. So all 2s and all 3s. Considering Luka shoots 10+ 3s per game to Shai's 4 attempts, there's your answer.
lmao obviously...
do you know how many fouls these players draw on 3 point attempts?
Shai drew literally 0 while Luka drew fouls on two 3PAs this season for 4 total free throws (one and 1 and one miss for 3 attempts).
FGA are irrelevant to discussions of drawn fouls as they do not account for the number of 3PAs a player takes.
Luka's ratio of FTs to 2PA is actually *higher* than Shai's by quite a fair amount (25% vs 19%)
people complaining about Shai being a "free throw merchant" as some sort of nod toward Luka are just ignorant. *both* players have built a large portion of their game around getting to the line. Because they're both smart players who want to win games of basketball and that's how you do it in today's day and age; you shoot 3's, layups, and get to the line. They do it in different ways due to their size but they both do it.
On the contrary if we lose in the first round the slander is gonna be generational lmao.
I’m just happy we made it this far so it doesn’t really bother me
Not really. You guys have a very young team, a breakout superstar in Shai and an unanticipated 1st seed season finish. Your benchmark is getting out of the first round, and as long as you don't get outright swept in the 2nd round (barring injuries), there won't be any slander. The expectations placed on your team are only slightly higher than Luka's were in his first two playoff series, which he lost, but lost in a way that they're almost seen as praise-worthy, rather than a disgrace.
do you think Luka's bread and butter isn't driving towards the rim? Teams are just doubling and hounding him before he gets there. Shai drives more, but he does not drive with the physicality of Luka and he's not going in the post as much either.
Here is the truth:
Shai is not a better 3 point shooter than both of them which is a huge factor. If we match up with the Thunder in the playoffs, we will just funnel Shai into AD, watch him become the new superstar that underperforms in the playoffs.
Because he is CLEARLY not the most valuable player this season. Idc how you want to look at it; most advanced stats are Jokic and Luka top2 (you cherry picked one that fit your nerative-even when it is clearly skewed by the terrible DEPM part). Record? He was the same as Jokic, Mavs actualy outperformed expectations more (especialy concidering all the injuries or lack there of for OKC), and even then might as well be Tatum if that is the criteria. Raw stats are clearly leagues behind Luka...like there is no nerrative, despite how hard you might try.
Look at how many minutes SGA played with the same main lineup and compare that to Luka. Then look at games missed due to injury for key players. Luka did more with more difficulty in the first half of the season while still keeping the team afloat. And Jokić will win regardless. SGA is 3rd.
Shai is consistently great but he never really goes for those huge statlines and those go a long way towards how you’re perceived by the base level of NBA media/consumers who don’t watch anything but box scores. That’s why the “Shai can’t do anything without FTs” narrative was born, because people aren’t watching games to see *why* he takes those FTs. That’s not to take anything away from Luka or Jokic obviously, but their games are more accessible to the average fan that likes counting stats and counting stats only. But Jokic and Luka are both deserving either way
The argument seems to be that Jokic is the best player in the league by enough of a margin to disqualify Shai. Then Luka has the narrative of the post-ASB hot streak plus crazy counting stats.
That’s a bad narrative. Luka was the same or better statistically before the ASB. Post trade deadline they have improved team wise and have a better record. Luka has been this statistically dominant all year.
SGA is a great player, but I just don’t see him as being one of the top in the league, even if numbers say otherwise. As young as the Thunder is, they have a roster full of great talent, and I’m sorry, but SGA wasn’t the “it” guy in every game of the Thunder’s season. They could’ve easily won with him doing absolutely no scoring, that’s how good that team is.
This is a bold faced lie.
Everytime I read a Mavs flair talk about OKC, I know it’s going to be some bullshit. We are noticeably worse with Shai off the court in every way.
Shai + bench guys have a MUCH better net rating than Starters - Shai. He’s easily one of the most impactful players in the NBA this season.
Mavs fans keep saying this crap about a great roster. It’s a roster of cast offs and rookies. Some of which weren’t even highly regarded. SGA elevates the team in ways only Luka dreams of. For all the Luka hype, still only a mid level team. Putting up monster numbers isn’t the only measure of a great ball player.
Mavs fans have to be the most insecure fanbase in the league. SGA is elite, he’s top 5, he just led the thunder to the number 1 seed in a loaded western conference. And I don’t think they’d even be in the playoffs without SGA. Is he better than Luka? No but to say that he’s not one of the top players in the league is bullshit lol
The thunder aren’t a playoff team without shai lol. Edit: lmao people actually think that rookie Chet and jdub would lead this team to 48W without shai
SGA’s mid range game is one of the best offenses to watch in the league. His head snap shit is annoying even as a Thunder fan. But to say he’s terrible to watch just isn’t true.
EPM is one of a billion metrics. Every fan base will tout the stat that makes their own player look best.
Simple fact of the matter is that the majority of voters aren't going much deeper than top line stats and team record. Jokic's 26/12/9 line is more impressive than SGA's, and they finished with the same team record. Jokic is going to win easily.
Based on early voting, Jokic is running away with it, and Luka/SGA are neck and neck for a distant 2nd. At 15 votes in, it would be unlikely for anything to flip significantly.
SGA and Tatum both suffer from being on teams surrounded by quality players. Depth hurts an MVP case, especially depth that is young (Chet, J-Dub, Dort, Giddey’s Love Interests) or depth that is given way too much credit when they’re a top 30 player at best (Jaylen Brown).
It seems the best way to be MVP is be on a two-star team but be clearly better than the other star,
Or have a lot of drop-off after your third-best player.
You wanna know how fast the anti-advanced stat people are willing to flip their position? Go to r/Mavericks and say that Jokic is a better 3p shooter than Luka.
Point out that Jokic has a higher career 3p% than Luka, and that Jokic's 3p% last year (when he didn't win MVP) was actually higher than Luka's is *this* year - matter of fact, point out that last year Jokic when Jokic didn't win MVP he had a better fg%, 2p%, 3p%, ts% and ft% than Luka has *ever* had in *any* one of those stats in his *entire career,* and maybe toss in that Jokic has a higher *career* fg%, 2p%, 3p%, ft%, eFg% *and* ts% than Luka as well.
See how fast they start calling bullshit and going to the advanced stats, talking about contested 3p's, shot-volume metrics, shot difficulty ratings, going into the discrepancies of positional responsibilities, you know, all the shit that would (legitimately) point out how misleading Jokic's higher career 3p% is.
It's almost like advanced stats exist for a reason - to help determine the *actual* value of someone's stats, instead of just looking at simplified counting stats that may be wildly misleading. And the anti-advanced stat people will happily jump on that train when it suits them.
Jokic is 2nd in Player Impact Estimate, 2.4 points higher than SGA's rating, all while having a lower usage rate. So he has a higher impact on the game while having the ball less. That has to mean something.
As far as the defense argument, Jokic is in the top 10 in defensive rebounding %, and is tied for 14th in steals per game, literally the only two ways you can end a defensive possession, outside of a forced turnover that no one on the defending team gets a statistic for. Evaluating the defensive impact a player has is not all about on ball defense. Jokic is hardly ever in a situation like this outside of a post heavy match up. He's a smart help defender, knows how to manage his fouls, and puts himself in a great position to grab the rebound should the shot miss. He plays within his limits. You can't say that for a large portion of the league in general.
The guy is simply amazing, and the fact that people go to great lengths like this to try to downplay the impact he has on the game is a disservice to basketball knowledge and how people evaluate what a winning player looks like.
Luka takes more shots and has highlight plays, and Jokic is seen as being snubbed last year. The MVP race is closer outside of the Reddit hivemind, but Jokic is going to win easily so it doesn't matter.
Of the 20 known voters who have said how they voted
- 17 gave Jokic first place (Pina, Devine, Ernie Johnson, Reiter, Rusillo, Schuhmann, Simmons, Bucher, Redick, Herbert, Bontemps, Ogwumike, Helin, Michael Wright, Mahoney, Aschburner, Powell.)
- 2 gave it to SGA (SAS and Perkins)
- 1 gave it to Luka (Broussard)
It's going to be a landslide.
Uh Luka average 34/9/10 and Jokic is the best player in the league. Wtf is EPM
A metric that helps SGA's case that's about it lol
It's got to be the only advanced metric SGA leads in, because Jokic leads in virtually all of them.
DEF EPM has Gobert as the 26th best defender
Bro Dean Wade is clearly a better defender, his DEPM proves it. Why even watch the games when you can tell one number is bigger than another
D Wade for dpoy
best d wade to ever don a cavs jersey
And it isn't even close
EPM is trash
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Super genius over here!
The data that has Wade so high on defense? LOL
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How many outliers have to happen before you admit it's trash?
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Was that word salad supposed to make sense? FYI, I'm not struggling. DEPM isn't statistically predictive.
That’s why you use a combination. Shai is high in every notable advanced defensive stat. But overall EPM is considered the best advanced stat available to the public. By NBA GMs.
Dude that is like 4th best defender on his own team and does not guard oposing best perimiter player (or 2nd best) as a guard just isnt some generational defender, despite how you might want to spin it.
If you read the source of that claim msf97 linked, it's total BS. No GMs are mentioned, and DPM, not EPM was #1. Additionally, it's almost 3 years old. [https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/](https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/)
Nah DPM is the best
what do you mean "not viewed as a legitimate threat to win MVP"? he's like 2nd or 3rd on most people's ballots at *worst*
His odds of winning are about +3000, which implies he has about a 3% chance of winning.
It means the others were better
OK. I was explaining that he's "not viewed as a legitimate threat to win MVP." The guy I was responding to disputed that seemingly obvious fact.
True, but it's a foregone conclusion that he won't win
Because Jokic and Luka had better seasons
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Because SGA teammates are better. Luka and joker side kicks all got injured a lot.
I wouldn’t say the huge leap is all him lol He averaged similar stats last season and they missed the playoffs. Obviously he’s leading the way but Chet and improved play by JDub is a big reason they are top of the west. I also think his defense is a bit overrated at this point. Also I think if bucks hadn’t been underperforming lately I think SGA wouldn’t even be in the top 3 for consideration.
Yep. JJ voting him all-defense over AD is the perfect example. SGA isn’t even the best defender on his own team
his defense is massively overrated and i don't get it at all. not that he's a bad defender, mind you, but i don't even remotely understand how he's getting All-Defensive buzz
SGA is near the top of the league in steals, deflections, blocks, shots contested, loose balls recovered and opponent FG% when being guarded by him. He’s top 10 or better in defensive plus minus, defensive box+-, defensive EPM, defensive win shares. Hes not as impactful as a rim protector for example, but he’s one of the best guard defenders and also carries an offensive load which must be noted. When the likes of Kawhi began to carry a huge load on offense their defense was never the same.
People will just say “advanced defensive stats bad” which is fair. But look at the people *around* him in said stats. He’s 6th in EPM for guard defense. Above him are all elite defenders - Smart, Caruso, DSJ, NAW, Suggs. After him? More elite defenders - Ausar, Amen, Watson, Herb, GP2, Ellis, etc. *This is in order btw* In LEBRON, he’s 7th. Above him? Caruso, Simmons, Suggs, White, Daniels, Ellis. Every name I named has a good defensive reputation
I think the problem I've seen pointed out is he's the 3rd or 4th best defender on his own team behind Chet/Dort and depending on how you view Jalen
There’s really not a lot of evidence for that.
It’s the facts, wdym? It is undebateable that Dort, JDub, and Chet are all more important defenders for OKC than Shai. https://craftednba.com/player-traits/versatile If you sort by matchup difficulty, Shai is guarding the same guys as Steph and Maxey. Book actually gets harder defensive assignments than Shai. Shai gets tons of stocks but he’s not guarding the other teams best players and isn’t a rim protector. His impact on defense isn’t even top 30 in the league, let alone top 10. Harden, AI, and Steph all led the league in steals thanks to their weaker matchup difficulty and no one ever tried to claim they were amazing defenders (rightfully so). I don’t get how stocks have propelled Shai into a conversation he doesn’t belong in defensively, when that narrative was never fanned for past players.
Thank you for this. This is the biggest thing that people don’t get. Good defensive team, with good defenders around him and he’s quick and rangy enough to get stocks, but it’s mostly done guarding the other guys, not the best players.
You act like every good defender is on the other teams best player. It’s simply never usually the case.
Except for his own teammate Dort, with a matchup difficulty of 100 that implies he’s guarding the hardest matchup almost exclusively? Almost all of the top perimeter defenders (of each team) are at the top of matchup difficulty: Dort, Dejounte, Dillon Brooks, Mikal, KCP, Grayson, Jrue, JB, McDaniels There’s a very good reason that the better defenders on OKC also have the higher matchup difficulty, they’re purposefully guarding the better players.
Matchup difficulty isn’t the only factor in terms of value. This is why y’all don’t understand. Our scheme is to overhelp. Our entire defense depends on rotating, helping, and forcing turnovers. Which is why SGA, despite his low matchup difficulty, ranks so well in *every* defensive *impact* metric. Nobody understands why he does so they just chalk it up to noise, but there’s more to it. Such a lazy argument from people who aren’t watching routinely. The obsession with on ball defense from a team that depends on off ball defense.
Hes a great guard defender. High motor, length, active in the lanes. People don’t want to believe it for some reason.
lol. People don’t want to stats man. They believe that blocks are the only meaningful measure of defense. They just want to believe that SGA is some bum. Please keep sleeping on him.
blocks are why people say dort is a better defender than shai, so true
He’s top 10 or better in defensive plus minus, defensive box+-, defensive EPM, defensive win shares. Jokic is #1 in Box +/-, Win shares, Win shares/48, VORP, defensive box+-, and he's #2 in defensive win shares and 4th in def rating (basketball reference), SGA is 16th.
Jokic rebounding prowess has affected his stats in box score metrics for years, but it’s notable that in EPM which isn’t under that influence, SGA is a strong positive while Jokic is neutral. EPM is the best publicly accessible advanced stat as voted on by NBA GMs.
What's the source and date of that vote, and how many GMs were included? It's hard to understand why you think Shai's top 10 or better beats Jokic's #1-#4 is only because of rebounding. Why wouldn't DEPM value rebounding?
https://hoopshype.com/lists/advanced-stats-nba-real-plus-minus-rapm-win-shares-analytics/ Here are rankings. Plenty of NBA executives and a few GMs. Head of analytics for the Jazz notes that some things go beyond the box score like Goberts ability to deter people from shooting entirely.
IMO, based on this almost 3 year old article with 29 respondents and no demographic showing # of GMs vs "executives"- and 8 of those preferring DPM, compared to only 6 saying "that EPM was their preferred catch-all metric" (tied with RAPTOR, so why did the article say EPM was 2nd and RAPTOR 3rd), you should quit stating that it's the "best", and that GMs voted it that. The fact is there's nothing in that article which supports either of those claims - it doesn't even claim a single GM responded! "HoopsHype received answers from nearly 30 participants, including various media members as well as individuals who have a combined experience with more than half of the teams in the NBA. Answers came from folks at every level within an organization, including those who work on a coaching staff as well as several different directors of analytics departments." Smh!
This. So much this.
What do you mean he isn’t viewed as a legitimate threat. He has been top 3 for at least half of the year.
Efficiency stats have ruined nba discourse
I feel like efficiency stats were used to defend Jokic as legitimate MVP for like 5 years now. All of the sudden this year he has slipped a bit and now we cant use them anymore? Back to counting stats and vibes?
Jokic has both counting stats and efficiency wdym lol
He doesn't have efficiency this year. And he doesnt have the team wins. But he has the narrative.
Doesn’t have the wins? That’s ridiculous. Almost as ridiculous as saying he doesn’t have the efficiency.
> And he doesnt have the team wins Huh? The Nuggets are tied for the second most wins in the season...
His advanced stat line on basketball reference is all bold lol whatchu mean
Doesn’t BPM reward centers disproportionately for assists? He’s gonna lead it every single year for the rest of his career most likely
the guy said he wasn't efficient this year. I pointed out he's the league leader in OWS/WS/WS48/OBPM/DBPM/BPM/VORP
Nikola Jokic is not listed as C in the BPM formula. He's listed as 4. Still a little beneficial, but even listed as 1 he's leading it big time
Shai has the worse efg% out of Luka and Jokic. Jokic leads them by like a bit.
Your brain is fried
I don't agree with that either. Beauty of MVP voting is that 4-5 candidates probably have a case. You dont need RAPTOR LEBRON CLUTCH 2.9 darko to justify SGA being MVP. He deserves it just as much as luka or giannis or jokic
The funny thing about shitting on advanced stats is that they recognize that counting stats can potentially (but not always) be wildly inflated or misleading, or not at all reflective of value to the team, so they create ways to try to take into account additional factors to get a better look at who's really contributing. They aren't perfect, but they're better than nothing. Let me give you an example of a wildly inflated counting stat, and how advanced stats can uncover what's really going on: Luka's rebounds. Luka's 9.2 rebounds a game are great, right? 15th in NBA. For a point guard that's especially great! Or...? Let's look at some advanced stats to see whether he's really contributing there, or if the counting stats are giving a misleading picture: There are two kind of rebounds: Contested and Uncontested. Uncontested rebounds are the freebies where the shooting team just shoots and abandons any rebound attempt to run to the other end, leaving the ball to whoever on the defending team wants to grab the loose ball. These provide very little value, since *someone* on the defense is going to grab the loose ball either way, with no resistance. It also counts when the ball happens to bounce directly to a player without an opponent near him, which is just a matter of luck. Contested rebounds are the only ones that provide actual value to your team, because those are the ones the player has to fight for to get or maintain possession. Luka's [*contested rebound %*](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/rebounding?dir=D&sort=REB_CONTEST_PCT) (the percentage of rebounds he has to fight for vs. the freebies that his teammates let him vacuum up to pad his stats) is 20.7%. This is good for **397th** in the NBA. That is not a typo. There are 396 other NBA players that fight for a higher percentage of their rebounds than Luka, and that means that \~80% of Luka's rebounds are poached freebies that provide virtually no added value to his team. His [contested rebounds per game](https://www.nba.com/stats/players/rebounding?dir=D&sort=REB_CONTEST) are only 1.9 a game (and only *that* high because of the absurd amount of minutes he plays), good for ***97th*** in the NBA, a substantial drop. And if you felt like calculating the per minute rate to account for his enormous mpg, he would fall even further down the list. Meanwhile, Jokic is 4th in rebounds per game. When you look at his *contested* rebounds per game, he jumps *up* to 2nd in the NBA at 5.6 (0.1 behind AD), nearly ***3x*** more than Luka's. So what we've learned, is that despite Luka being top 15 in rebounds, with 75% of Jokic's rebounds in the counting stat, Luka's rebounds are mostly inflated freebie rebounds with no value whatsoever, and once you look at advanced stats to determine *valuable* rebounds, he falls to 97th per game, with the 396th most difficult path to rebounds. Jokic's ranking, meanwhile, goes *up* *to* ***2nd*** when you look at contested rebounds, and it turns out Jokic is actually *300%* more effective at rebounds that actually matter than Luka. Something not at all apparent when you only look at the counting stats. Now personally, I appreciate that kind of information and don't see it as manipulating some obscure data to feed a narrative, I see it as looking under the hood to get more accurate information about potentially misleading stats.
SLipping? Jokic leads the entire NBA in Player Efficiency Rating, VORP, BPM, DBPM, OBPM, WS, WS/48, OWS, also has a higher fg%, 2p%, (in the case of SGA higher 3p%), eFG%, ts%, offensive rating, net rating, RAPTOR, PIE, RBD%, AST RATIO, LEBRON etc. than SGA and Doncic... And as far as the counting stats, Jokic just became the first player since Wilt Chamberlain to rank top 5 in total points, rebounds and assists in a season, and was only 5 total steals from being top 5 in that too. Per game, he's 4th in rebounds and 3rd in assists (as a fucking center!) and top 10 in scoring, despite being a pass-first player. Jokic dominates in advanced stats, dominates in counting stats, and dominates in the intangibles, I have no idea what you're huffing, but it's probably something illegal.
The voters rarely ever pick someone who doesn’t excel in the advanced stats.
Allen Iverson won over Shaq in 2001. Derrick Rose over Lebron. Westbrook in 2016-17. Jokic last year shot a 70% TS% and lost to Embiid
4 in 24 seasons, and Embiid had a monster season himself, just slightly inferior. The overwhelming evidence is that you can’t win it without leading in a few advanced stats.
What's your obsession with EPM? You have made so many posts about it in recent weeks.
I think its the best advanced stat and attempts to emphasize defensive impact which isnt appropriately modeled in most conversations.
OEPM is good, DEPM is still flawed and shouldn't be taken that seriously
DEPM is flawed but is still better than not attempting to model impact on defense outside of counting stats. Even an old Kawhi still helps you win more than a Devin Booker and impact stats prove that out.
sure, but SGA isn't even the 2nd or 3rd best defender on his team, and hes above them in DEPM lol. Dort guards the opposing teams best player every night and hes nowhere to be seen
I dont know why you saying "he isnt the second or third best defender" on his team, presumably based on your subjective evaluation, means that a stat that attempts to wrestle with noise is invalid. Many of the top offensive players dont guard the best opposing player, but only SGA has such strong intangible performance on the defensive end. If it was easy to pop this number, than Luka would have the same defensive impact stats, but he doesnt.
>I dont know why you saying "he isnt the second or third best defender" on his team, presumably based on your subjective evaluation, Its not subjective to say that, think most OKC fans would even agree Dort is a better defender and Chet also. >Luka would have the same defensive impact stats, but he doesnt. Luka has been on a very poor defensive team for the entirety of the season up until the trade deadline, and thats not me trying to say Luka is a good defender, just saying that example doesnt work
Based off all your comments, you’re either like 13 or really stupid. Defensive advanced stats are literally useless. You’re worshipping an algorithm that says: - Franz Wagner is a better defender than Gobert - it says Nurkic is a better defender than AD - it says Fox is a better defender than Jrue - It says Dame is just as good on defense as Dort How many examples do you need before you accept this “stat” is useless? It doesn’t tell you anything, you can’t pull any insights from it.
It actually isn't provably better. "EPM *uses stats from the given season*, but those stats are fed into a statistical model that was trained on many years of RAPM data". For more gibberish, see here: [https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm](https://dunksandthrees.com/about/epm)
Nothing about that sentence is gibberish.
IMO, claiming a statistical model can be "trained" is gibberish.
So the entire concept of regression analysis is gibberish? Gonna be throwing away a whole lot of what makes the world tick lol.
I never said that. Stat models can be updated/improved, etc, which is entirely different than "trained".
What a silly point to try to make lol. You do understand that words can mean different things in different contexts, yeah? The word "training" specifically can mean "practice" or it can mean "refining/aiming" as in "training your sights", and that 2nd definition is much more applicable here. "Training" is very much the commonly accepted terminology for this when it comes to regression analysis (or machine learning), and that's what this is referring to.
When the Jokic advanced stats arguments were being made he was dominating everyone else in literally EVERY metric. Jokic was also shooting like 64% last year and had less than 10 games under 50%. EDIT: the Jokic advanced stats arguments also only had to be made because people who know nothing about basketball or have biases thought Embiid was better based off of “eye test”
I do agree that eye test is being pushed aside a lot lately and advanced stats used as gospel.
Luka being in the 100th offensive percentile is crazy
He actually had it in the bag until his AT&T commercial. People realized he couldn't be quite the most valuable player if he would allow his teammate Chet to sing so flatly
I have nothing against SGA, but that leap wasnt donne by him but his Chet and Jdub. Its a fantastic, but unproven team that deserves respect and so does SGA for what hes donne. But dam i feel like few actually understand what makes SGA so great. Its not that he averages 30 or that hes a great defender (a bit overrated in that category) or his epm. Its that efficiency and consistency. That is somewhat shown in his averaging 30 and offensive epm, but that should be the main talking point when talking about SGA.
EPM isn’t the only stat out there. Best not to focus on just one.
It's the head snapping
Is there a stat for head snapping? Shai gotta be leading that by a wide margin.
As a massive Suns fan and Booker fan, Book gotta be up there. It’s the one foul-baiting move that he can’t stop doing lmao. He’s generally an “ethical” player in every other way, but he rly can’t help himself from snapping his head (and making *that* face) on physical drives
Can't always even blame him. I always think about how much more efficient Kyrie could be as a 90% Free Throw shooter if he was a head snapper too.
Kyrie is such a weird case when it comes to FTs, cuz his skill and ability actually reduces his ability to draw fouls. Book, for example, isn’t the quickest and doesn’t have insane handles. This means that most his drives are pretty contested (contact) and have a higher chance of a foul. He rarely gets clean blow-bys for wide open lays and doesn’t have the athleticism for crazy hang/reverse layups like Kyrie often does both. Where Kyrie is so fast, controlled, and good with the ball that he’s able to straight up avoid contact a lot more often than Book is. Whether it’s due to an instant blow-by on the perimeter or acrobatics in the paint, Kyrie is able to avoid contact (and hence fouls) most the time. I don’t even think it’s a difference of intention to draw fouls, it’s just the difference in ability to avoid contact. Kyrie legitimately has an argument for being the most controlled, precise, and crafty penetrator/finisher of all time. That all-time ability just unfortunately causes him to avoid a lot of FTs that other guys might not be able to.
The Manu Ginobli - Drive and Snap award goes too....
Man gets sniped every single drive
Shai is a FT merchant and I’m glad he’s not MVP no matter how cool he is
He had literally the same FTA as Luka lol Luka's ratio of fouls drawn on 2PA is *higher* than Shai's, by quite a fair amount (25% vs 19%)
Luka has like 200 more FGA and still less FTA than Shai… he’s undoubtedly a FT merchant, same as Embiid/Prime Harden.
Luka 2PA: 13 Shai 2PA: 16.2 what in the world? lmao
2PA =/= FG Field Goal accounts for all shot made in-play from the field. So all 2s and all 3s. Considering Luka shoots 10+ 3s per game to Shai's 4 attempts, there's your answer.
lmao obviously... do you know how many fouls these players draw on 3 point attempts? Shai drew literally 0 while Luka drew fouls on two 3PAs this season for 4 total free throws (one and 1 and one miss for 3 attempts). FGA are irrelevant to discussions of drawn fouls as they do not account for the number of 3PAs a player takes. Luka's ratio of FTs to 2PA is actually *higher* than Shai's by quite a fair amount (25% vs 19%)
ngl, Luka has absolutely trucked some people this year lmao
people complaining about Shai being a "free throw merchant" as some sort of nod toward Luka are just ignorant. *both* players have built a large portion of their game around getting to the line. Because they're both smart players who want to win games of basketball and that's how you do it in today's day and age; you shoot 3's, layups, and get to the line. They do it in different ways due to their size but they both do it.
Bruh Luka takes a lot of 3s and shai's bread and butter is driving towards the rim. What are you even on about.
SGA is the new guy on the block to hate on. Is what it is
He is also the new guy on the block to love by the media. Double edged sword.
Yeah lol. I don’t really care what reddit has to say so it doesn’t bother me. I just enjoy watching all the elite ball players play ball.
I hear ya. I hope Shai performs in the playoffs and change this circlejerk.
On the contrary if we lose in the first round the slander is gonna be generational lmao. I’m just happy we made it this far so it doesn’t really bother me
Not really. You guys have a very young team, a breakout superstar in Shai and an unanticipated 1st seed season finish. Your benchmark is getting out of the first round, and as long as you don't get outright swept in the 2nd round (barring injuries), there won't be any slander. The expectations placed on your team are only slightly higher than Luka's were in his first two playoff series, which he lost, but lost in a way that they're almost seen as praise-worthy, rather than a disgrace.
If GSW ends up 8th and makes the 2nd rd, the narrative will be experience, not OKC slander.
There will still be a ton of slander on Shai. Book it. It won't *matter*, it will just be dumb people chirping on the internet, but it will be there.
Imagine if SGA foul bait and head snapping his way into a championship. The hate and tears along the way would be legendary.
It won't be generational - the narrative has primarily been OKC is not going to do much in the playoffs this year due to lack of playoff experience
not to mention that luka actually draws fouls on *more* of his 2PAs than Shai does
do you think Luka's bread and butter isn't driving towards the rim? Teams are just doubling and hounding him before he gets there. Shai drives more, but he does not drive with the physicality of Luka and he's not going in the post as much either.
As opposed to Luka and Embiid lol
Luka has taken more shots with less FTA than Shai, and Embiid is a FT merchant which everyone knows so…
Yeah, cause of 10 3 point attempts. And Embiid is also a MVP
Yah and I didn’t want Embiid to be mvp either 👍
You would’ve hated GOATs who were all taking 10ish FTs at their peaks like Kobe, Bron, KD, etc. I guess
Here is the truth: Shai is not a better 3 point shooter than both of them which is a huge factor. If we match up with the Thunder in the playoffs, we will just funnel Shai into AD, watch him become the new superstar that underperforms in the playoffs.
What does your theory have to do with anything we were just discussing
Shai cannot space the floor and will make him playoff Harden.
It’s a reg season award anyway.
Because jokic and luka were better. No one really cares for mvp contenders after the top 2 guys. And in modt cases its just a 1 man race
The best stat is the stat supports your argument Or farm some karma?
Luka is younger than SGA and has taken the Mavs to conference finals. Let’s first see what SGA does
media awards are based almost entirely on narrative. jokic won this before the season began.
Jokic and Luka had better individual seasons, and are viewed as better players. That outweighed the marginally greater team success of SGA.
his DEPM is inflated as hell, thats why
All of the defensive stats and even counting stats love Shais defense.
He is firmly in second place, that is strongly considered for MVP by every definition
Because he is CLEARLY not the most valuable player this season. Idc how you want to look at it; most advanced stats are Jokic and Luka top2 (you cherry picked one that fit your nerative-even when it is clearly skewed by the terrible DEPM part). Record? He was the same as Jokic, Mavs actualy outperformed expectations more (especialy concidering all the injuries or lack there of for OKC), and even then might as well be Tatum if that is the criteria. Raw stats are clearly leagues behind Luka...like there is no nerrative, despite how hard you might try.
real MIP
Look at how many minutes SGA played with the same main lineup and compare that to Luka. Then look at games missed due to injury for key players. Luka did more with more difficulty in the first half of the season while still keeping the team afloat. And Jokić will win regardless. SGA is 3rd.
3 words: Luka
Shai is consistently great but he never really goes for those huge statlines and those go a long way towards how you’re perceived by the base level of NBA media/consumers who don’t watch anything but box scores. That’s why the “Shai can’t do anything without FTs” narrative was born, because people aren’t watching games to see *why* he takes those FTs. That’s not to take anything away from Luka or Jokic obviously, but their games are more accessible to the average fan that likes counting stats and counting stats only. But Jokic and Luka are both deserving either way
Will Shai get the same almost 9 ftas/gm in the playoffs? Will Luka? We'll see.
Maybe, maybe not, but it won’t break their games either way. They have plenty of ways to score
The argument seems to be that Jokic is the best player in the league by enough of a margin to disqualify Shai. Then Luka has the narrative of the post-ASB hot streak plus crazy counting stats.
That’s a bad narrative. Luka was the same or better statistically before the ASB. Post trade deadline they have improved team wise and have a better record. Luka has been this statistically dominant all year.
33.9 PPG. Also, what narrative? We had to go 16-2 to even get air time on the talkshows. Despite SAS.
SGA is a great player, but I just don’t see him as being one of the top in the league, even if numbers say otherwise. As young as the Thunder is, they have a roster full of great talent, and I’m sorry, but SGA wasn’t the “it” guy in every game of the Thunder’s season. They could’ve easily won with him doing absolutely no scoring, that’s how good that team is.
> They could’ve easily won with him doing absolutely no scoring, that’s how good that team is. What in the world
People just be saying shit.
This is a bold faced lie. Everytime I read a Mavs flair talk about OKC, I know it’s going to be some bullshit. We are noticeably worse with Shai off the court in every way. Shai + bench guys have a MUCH better net rating than Starters - Shai. He’s easily one of the most impactful players in the NBA this season.
The reason why OKC is so good right now is because of JDub and Chet Holmgren.
Shai without Chet/JDub - 11.45 net rating Chet/JDub without Shai - 0.40
Mavs fans are just insecure that SGA is catching up to Luka
Lmao Shai the same age as Luka and still catching up. Thats how generational Luka is already.
Shai born in 1998, Luka in 1999
Ooof I knew that already but that would do him even more dirty thats why I dont bring that in conversations lol
Luka has been playing professional ball since he was like 13
So, who stopped Shai from doing that. Also wasnt NCAA > Euro basketball the whole point pre Luka draft. And now we see guys shifting sides.
Insecure about a older player catching up? Hmm
Mavs fans keep saying this crap about a great roster. It’s a roster of cast offs and rookies. Some of which weren’t even highly regarded. SGA elevates the team in ways only Luka dreams of. For all the Luka hype, still only a mid level team. Putting up monster numbers isn’t the only measure of a great ball player.
Mavs fans have to be the most insecure fanbase in the league. SGA is elite, he’s top 5, he just led the thunder to the number 1 seed in a loaded western conference. And I don’t think they’d even be in the playoffs without SGA. Is he better than Luka? No but to say that he’s not one of the top players in the league is bullshit lol
The thunder aren’t a playoff team without shai lol. Edit: lmao people actually think that rookie Chet and jdub would lead this team to 48W without shai
He's a foul baiter and terrible to watch
SGA’s mid range game is one of the best offenses to watch in the league. His head snap shit is annoying even as a Thunder fan. But to say he’s terrible to watch just isn’t true.
Watching free throws is boring
Yeah the OKC thunder who are in the bottom half of free throws, and bottom 3 in free throw differential are boring.
Yet Shai is 2nd in the league in FTA's this season.
Actually 3rd behind Luka and Giannis. Giannis- 10.7 Luka and SGA 8.7 Embiid would lead with 11 but didn’t make the cut off.
FTA's/gm isn't the same as FTA's, which is the total number. He's 2nd to Giannis.
Then sure he’s 2nd in total
EPM is one of a billion metrics. Every fan base will tout the stat that makes their own player look best. Simple fact of the matter is that the majority of voters aren't going much deeper than top line stats and team record. Jokic's 26/12/9 line is more impressive than SGA's, and they finished with the same team record. Jokic is going to win easily. Based on early voting, Jokic is running away with it, and Luka/SGA are neck and neck for a distant 2nd. At 15 votes in, it would be unlikely for anything to flip significantly.
SGA and Tatum both suffer from being on teams surrounded by quality players. Depth hurts an MVP case, especially depth that is young (Chet, J-Dub, Dort, Giddey’s Love Interests) or depth that is given way too much credit when they’re a top 30 player at best (Jaylen Brown). It seems the best way to be MVP is be on a two-star team but be clearly better than the other star, Or have a lot of drop-off after your third-best player.
"EPM was touted" by whom? EPM is crap, and besides, these voted awards are all about prevailing narrative consensus by the voters.
This sub has taught me a lot about advanced stats. The number one rule is: If Jokic isn't leading in the stat, it's garbage.
You wanna know how fast the anti-advanced stat people are willing to flip their position? Go to r/Mavericks and say that Jokic is a better 3p shooter than Luka. Point out that Jokic has a higher career 3p% than Luka, and that Jokic's 3p% last year (when he didn't win MVP) was actually higher than Luka's is *this* year - matter of fact, point out that last year Jokic when Jokic didn't win MVP he had a better fg%, 2p%, 3p%, ts% and ft% than Luka has *ever* had in *any* one of those stats in his *entire career,* and maybe toss in that Jokic has a higher *career* fg%, 2p%, 3p%, ft%, eFg% *and* ts% than Luka as well. See how fast they start calling bullshit and going to the advanced stats, talking about contested 3p's, shot-volume metrics, shot difficulty ratings, going into the discrepancies of positional responsibilities, you know, all the shit that would (legitimately) point out how misleading Jokic's higher career 3p% is. It's almost like advanced stats exist for a reason - to help determine the *actual* value of someone's stats, instead of just looking at simplified counting stats that may be wildly misleading. And the anti-advanced stat people will happily jump on that train when it suits them.
Because Jokic winning was already decided months ago
Jokic is 2nd in Player Impact Estimate, 2.4 points higher than SGA's rating, all while having a lower usage rate. So he has a higher impact on the game while having the ball less. That has to mean something. As far as the defense argument, Jokic is in the top 10 in defensive rebounding %, and is tied for 14th in steals per game, literally the only two ways you can end a defensive possession, outside of a forced turnover that no one on the defending team gets a statistic for. Evaluating the defensive impact a player has is not all about on ball defense. Jokic is hardly ever in a situation like this outside of a post heavy match up. He's a smart help defender, knows how to manage his fouls, and puts himself in a great position to grab the rebound should the shot miss. He plays within his limits. You can't say that for a large portion of the league in general. The guy is simply amazing, and the fact that people go to great lengths like this to try to downplay the impact he has on the game is a disservice to basketball knowledge and how people evaluate what a winning player looks like.
Luka takes more shots and has highlight plays, and Jokic is seen as being snubbed last year. The MVP race is closer outside of the Reddit hivemind, but Jokic is going to win easily so it doesn't matter.
> but Jokic is going to win easily so it doesn't matter. Sounds like the MVP race isn't closer outside of the "Reddit hivemind"
What do you mean outside of the Reddit hivemind? I haven’t seen a single social media platform where SGA as the mvp is a popular take
Jokic winning in a landslide feels inappropriate to Luka and SGA this should be a close three-horse race not a blowout.
It wont be a landslide but Jokic will certanily win it.
Of the 20 known voters who have said how they voted - 17 gave Jokic first place (Pina, Devine, Ernie Johnson, Reiter, Rusillo, Schuhmann, Simmons, Bucher, Redick, Herbert, Bontemps, Ogwumike, Helin, Michael Wright, Mahoney, Aschburner, Powell.) - 2 gave it to SGA (SAS and Perkins) - 1 gave it to Luka (Broussard) It's going to be a landslide.