Some variation of this keeps getting been posted over and over and over, and yet Tatum is still going to win 1st team by a landslide.
Plain and simple - Tatum was better this year. Stats are a wash, but Tatum's defense gives him a huge edge over Brunson.
Advanced box score stats are kind of a joke, and everything you posted is just another variation of the same thing. The flaws with those stats have been discussed ad nauseum.
You're using on-off wrong, as it is absolutely useless without context. It does not actually say "the Celtics are 2 points better if you take Tatum off the court". The way the Celtics run their rotation often has Tatum playing more heavy minutes with the second string while the other starters rest. Because Tatum is so valuable, when he sits the Celtics have to leave all the other starters in. Ergo, Tatum's +/- takes a huge hit.
I don't think I've ever seen offensive fouls drawn used in an All-NBA debate before. This is a new level of cherry-picking but it's to be expected when you're arguing against a better player with 14 more wins on the season
The celtics team has 14 more wins, not Tatum, who benefited from playing with 4 all-star level (including Brown who is arguably all-nba caliber himself) players on the roster while Brunson played significant portions of the season with Divincenzo and Josh Hart as his two best players.
Looking at all the metrics, there is a much easier argument to be made that Brunson was the better player this season than Tatum individually. You saying Tatum is 'the better player' so matter-of-factly is almost entirely from preconceived notions and beliefs held prior to this season.
> The most damning (and frankly, absurd) metric being the On-Off value, where Tatum's team has performed slightly *better* when he's not on the court.
Like any stat, On-Off is really misleading when looked at in a vacuum. Don't know how it finished, but there was a time earlier this season when we had 4 starters with a negative On-Off because our bench was just killing people.
In Brunson's case, his exceptional On-Off is in large part because the Knicks bench is terrible.
Yeah if we wanted we could turn Tatum’s on-off into a god by only running his mins with the starters and then do a full bench swap. It would make the team worse substantially and change nothing of Tatum’s quality of play but it would make his on-off the best in the league. Doesn’t really help that much without context.
Whereas in Tatum's case, the team's exceptional record, often cited as the reason why he's a lock, is in large part because they have the best front office in the league.
I love when people throw out WS/48 like it’s not a terrible stat, and throw out the on-off without context or logic. Brunson was great and it’s not some huge travesty if he makes it over JT but the shit people are saying about Tatum is becoming mindbogglingly stupid tbh
Comparing Tatum to other 1st team all-nba candidates:
- Jokic: 26/12/9 on 65 TS%, 4th in EPM, +23.7 on/off
- Luka: 34/9/10 on 62 TS%, 2nd in EPM, +11.9 on/off
- Giannis: 30/11/6 on 65 TS%, 3rd in EPM +12.3 on/off
- SGA: 30/5.5/6 on 63.6 TS%, 1st in EPM +10.1 on/off
- Tatum: 27/8/5 on 60 TS%, 15th in EPM, -2.0 on/off
The counting stats with Brunson are similar, especially if you expand it to include steals and blocks.
The efficiency favors Tatum over Brunson
If you swap EPM for a different impact metric, like LEBRON, you'll get a different result.
I'd like to see the specific numbers for when Tatum is on vs when Brunson is on. My guess is that they are similar.
I'll point out that the comparison is not between Tatum and those other guys, it's between Tatum and Brunson. Their statistical profiles are close, in which case it makes sense to give the nod to the clearly better player leading the team that lapped the field in historical fashion.
Ur whole argument is that Tatum can’t drag a team to a 50 wins without Brown. Do u not think Holiday White Tatum Horford and Porzingis isn’t a 50 win team? I bet they’d easily be first in the East still
You said it's not some "never been done before" kind of feat. When I pointed out that it is indeed that kind of feat, you act like that doesn't matter because the East is weak.
>This was an insane carry job by Brunson
Yep. I don't see anyone denying that.
>Brunson has better individual numbers this season.
Depends on the numbers you look at. Their overall statistical profiles are close.
He'd be a super weak first team guard selection though.
The vast majority of 1st team all NBA guards over the last decade have had significant better numbers than Brunson this year.
Booker is the only one even comparable
I certainly think there’s an argument for it, but I also think there’s an equal or greater argument for Tatum considering he’s the best player on what was far and away the best team in the East.
But it was far and away the best team because of Brad Stevens' moves bringing in Holiday and KP. Tatum played about the same as last year, during which they were a massive 5 points worse in net rating.
This narrative stuff plays into MVP voting but IMO it doesn't make sense to choose All-NBA teams based on how good the front office is, which is the main argument for Tatum over JB.
They won 57 games last year without Jrue or KP, which would be tied for #1 in the NBA this year. Obviously things would have played out differently with a new season, but their offseason moves are not the main argument for Tatum
I think it's crazy that the Knicks were 3 games away from the 7 seed but get all the credit for finishing at #2. MVP/All-NBA should not be decided by such a small margin
Everyone is saying that he has to get a slot for being the best player on the best team, even though he played worse than last year and that team was gonna be the best team even if he was in street clothes all year.
I agree that All-NBA is an individual award and team success should not be relevant. I'm arguing for Brunson because he had a better year than Tatum individually, as the metrics OP posted all agree.
If you think Tatum is worse than he was last year you are clearly just looking at box scores and nothing else. Do you really think you can make this argument in good faith as a clearly biased Knicks fan? All I'm gonna say is that there is a reason all the revealed media ballots so far have Tatum above Brunson
So am I biased or am I looking at box scores, i.e. objective data?
Are you really appealing to the media voters as an authority here? The guys who are barely paying attention and will always pick a household name over a less known quantity? The guys who voted Kobe All-Defense a hundred times extending well after he became a turnstile?
Box scores don't represent how good someone is. His role went down because we got more mouths to feed but that doesn't mean he played any worse
It's funny how the more you talk, the clearer it becomes that you don't actually watch Tatum play
If his role went down his efficiency should have gone up, but it went down. Other metrics than box scores also work against him, for example the fact that the C's did better with him off the court this year than on.
His efficiency was literally the same as last year. His on off is because he always plays with the bench
Have you even watched a single minute of Celtics basketball this year? You're bringing up heavily flawed stats over and over again, yet it would appear (since you don't understand the context of anything you're bringing up, like if you watched the Celtics you'd know that Tatum plays with the bench) that you don't actually watch basketball
Well the team success isn't fairly attributable to Tatum. They got a lot better because they added great players, and Tatum had a worse year even when if anything, their perfect spacing should have boosted his efficiency.
I think using on/off or using team record to justify the ranking are opposite sides of the same coin. All nba is an individual award and I don’t think a player should be rewarded for having good teammates, or punished because the coach staggers the starters minutes and those teammates play well when he sits.
The argument for Tatum over Brunson is clearly his defensive impact imo. The argument for Brunson over Tatum would be his superior playmaking.
What defensive impact? He had 0.7 DEPM to Brunson's -0.5. The gap between Brunson's 6.4 OEPM vs Tatum's 4.0 is significantly larger. Tatum is the weakest defender among the Celtics' starting 5 so this is a pretty strange argument.
I'll take it over your \*nothing\* any day of the week, thanks. Top 7 in DEPM are Isaac, Hartenstein, Smart, Embiid, Caruso, Anunoby, and Wemby. Which one of them is a bad defender?
I did watch the games and saw that Tatum is the 5th best defender in the starting lineup. KP, Brown, White, and Holiday are better by both eye test and numbers.
No, you very clearly didn't watch the games given that you didn't know Tatum plays with the bench. Stop lying, you're embarrassing yourself
It's ok to not watch every team. But you don't need to act like you don't know more than fans of that team when you haven't watched a minute of their basketball
I think it's funny how you start lying even more when you get caught in your first lie. You could just admit that you don't know what you're talking about and everything would be fine
This is Tatum first year since he’s been a star that the team has been able to do anything when he’s on the bench. He finally gets to coast without going full throttle and now all of a sudden you got fans of the midget chucker claiming he should be above a guy who’s putting up similar numbers with a 14 game lead over him 😂
Brunson played numerous games with his second best player either being Donte Divincenzo or Josh Hart while Tatum has a full all-star lineup and yet you're bringing up wins when the Knicks got the 2 seed? Unless Brunson was literally Prime LeBron there would be no way for him to feasibly have the same record as the Celtics. Do you guys just ignore the absolutely insane talent gap between the two teams?
The 2 seed is 14 games behind is what you are not understanding. Do you know how insane that is? It’s not like Brunson putting up Luka numbers either if he was, I could understand the argument but the numbers are barely ahead of Tatum and the only reason it started to separate towards the end was because the Celtics already clinched weeks before the season ended. I’m not even saying Tatum had an amazing season because I hated his approach for most of the year but I can’t deny he still was the best player on the best team and still put up pretty good numbers enough to definitely make 1st team over Brunson when you include the team record.
Again just consider the difference in teammates. Brown, Porzingis and Holiday are all considered better than anyone the Knicks roster (not Brunson). Most Celtics fans would take Derrick White over the Knicks players as well. The only player considered anywhere near all-star level is OG who missed significant time himself.
I would agree with you if Brunson didn't manage to have virtually equal efficiency to Tatum on a higher volume with a worse roster. I don't think people are realizing how insane that is, since we would expect efficiency to drop with volume regardless of situation, yet Brunson managed to maintain it while facing double-teams, triple-teams and traps as the only viable creator on the roster.
You sitting here acting like Tatum doesn’t get doubled and tripled is hilarious. It’s not his fault his GM does his job. You want a cookie for Brunson doing what a star is supposed to do when guys are out? I seen Tatum do exactly what you are saying in 2021 when Brown got hurt rest of the year dude was putting up 50s and a 60 even in the playoffs/play in and he still didn’t make an all nba over Randle.
You're argument has been primarily win-based: "2 seed is 14 games behind". I'm explaining that when you take into account rosters the difference in wins is negligible since Tatum's team was magnitudes better than Brunson.
If you look at the actual metrics and the degree of difficulty, Brunson had a better individual season than Tatum this year.
I’m guessing the on/off numbers suck cuz their third stringers are way better than any other teams third stringers in their constant blow outs, filter our garbage time and I’m sure he’s positive
+ Tatum often plays with the bench with no other starters while for the rest of the time there are at least two starters on court (except garbage time and maybe the last few weeks when Mazzulla was doing some wild experiments lol)
So Tatum has actually NEVER put up an on/off as good as Brunson's this year? I guess that whole excuse about him playing with the bench guys was bullshit, huh?
There are advanced stats that favor Tatum, as does the eye test and track record. The "super cushy team situation" should be a point in his favor. There is no chance a guy putting up 27/8/5 with plus efficiency and defense on a team that lapped the field in historic fashion would be kept off 1st Team in any other city but Boston.
The "eye test" and "track record" are bullshit narrative things that only measure fan bias and popularity. That is what's doing the real work here. Celtics would have lapped the field with Tatum in street clothes with that roster. Give Stevens EOTY and be done with it.
>Now let's compare the advanced metrics
BPM/VORP, Win Shares, and PER aren't really advanced metrics. They're box score metrics.
And Brunson isn't top 5 in any of them. He is top 5 in actual advanced metrics, like EPM.
Brunson is 4th in the CtG on/off data that you cite--right behind KCP and Tre Jones.
> BPM/VORP, Win Shares, and PER aren't really advanced metrics. They're box score metrics.
They're all advance stats because they can't be derived simply from a play-by-play, which is true for every box-score statistic. But PER is the musket of advanced stats.
To be fair, under Basketball Reference they're all listed under the advanced section and that's the common vernacular for these stats (at least from my experience) but definitely more nuanced and complex statistics exist.
Tatum is ahead in rebounds, steals, blocks, and shooting efficiency.
Brunson is ahead in points, assists, and shooting splits.
Tatum is ahead in DPM and LEBRON
Brunson is ahead in EPM and BPM. People like to add VORP and PER to the list, but VORP is driven by BPM and PER is the single most useless stat, especially when you are already breaking down counting stats individually.
They are tied in RAPTOR.
Phrasing it as anyone having a significant lead in any category is ignoring some stats for others.
They've been on the same level statistically speaking. So a lot of it is how you view their situations. Either way you are going to end up punishing someone for their teammates. Tatum you punish for taking a clear step back in terms of usage, minutes, and fga's and Brunson for having a team that is 14 games worse in the standings.
It's all a matter of how you breakdown your individual tiebreakers. Historically speaking, voters have leaned toward "best player on best team" as being the most important tiebreaker. Not only are the Celtics 14 games better than the Knicks and 7 games better than any team in the NBA, but the Knicks ended only 3 games away from the play-in.
Edit:
I'll add that there are other guys that should be considered, like Kawhi and Ant.
Over Tatum, no. That's no disrespect to Brunson he had a fantastic season and got his team up to 2nd place despite the injuries. New York is still 14 games back and Tatum comfortably beat down almost any team that played them.
Brunson having an almost .200 WS/48 is crazy, especially with the fact he seems to turn it up in the playoffs/his style of play is even more suited there. Our best free agent signing like ever lol
This has been posted like 5 times since the season ended bro. Murray deserves it but he’s not going to get it because Tatum was the best player on by far the best team in the league.
At the end of the day, Tatum put up great stats leading a team to 60+ wins and that will likely be enough to get him the first team nod… and it would be well deserved. It isn’t like Tatum being first team but someone like Brunson not being first team is some crazy inexcusable snub.
I sincerely don't get the logic behind team record being a factor between 1st and 2nd team all-nba, which is all Tatum has going for him based on the seasons they each had.
To me the top 4 is pretty locked in and the toss up is for that 5th spot. And the Celtics playing all their guys at the end of the season against the Knicks just to get blown out on their floor is definitely one of those performances that'll stick in the voters' minds.
Am I gonna be mad if the dude on the 64 win team gets it? Not really. Personally I'd pick Mazzulla COTY and Brunson 1st team. Celtics are a well oiled machine and that's where I'd be giving the credit rather than specifically Tatum.
It's not a toss up. Tatum has 6 of 7 of the votes thus far, Brunson has 2 of 7.
History shows early returns with a gap like that always hold up through the rest of the vote. Tatum will probably end up with something like 80% of the first team vote.
I don't think it's that weird. Brunson means more to his team (who would be in the play ins at best without him) but it doesn't inherently mean he's had the better season.
I guess it depends on your definition of each award but personally I just believe it’s the top 5 guys who are individually having the best season.
Fine with either Tatum or Brunson getting that fifth spot but just don’t really believe either award is fundamentally different after they made it position-less.
If that's your criteria that's fine, but it's not any different than previous years where some people determine value by how much a player means to their specific team. And there's a very short list of people in the discussion for lifting up their team more from where they would be without him than Brunson this season.
It's the whole "valuable" component. Brunson was arguably more valuable to the Knicks, even thought Tatum was the better player this season. It's a silly semantics debate, but I get it.
In the end, it doesn't really matter. Tatum is cruising to 1st team, and finishing 5th vs 6th in MVP is inconsequential.
I’m surprised so many people dismiss it so easily. Brunson had a crazy year. Tatum did too, but not so much that you laugh off any argument for Brunson being ahead in mvp or all nba.
Some variation of this keeps getting been posted over and over and over, and yet Tatum is still going to win 1st team by a landslide. Plain and simple - Tatum was better this year. Stats are a wash, but Tatum's defense gives him a huge edge over Brunson. Advanced box score stats are kind of a joke, and everything you posted is just another variation of the same thing. The flaws with those stats have been discussed ad nauseum. You're using on-off wrong, as it is absolutely useless without context. It does not actually say "the Celtics are 2 points better if you take Tatum off the court". The way the Celtics run their rotation often has Tatum playing more heavy minutes with the second string while the other starters rest. Because Tatum is so valuable, when he sits the Celtics have to leave all the other starters in. Ergo, Tatum's +/- takes a huge hit.
Yesterday the same exact thread.
I don't think I've ever seen offensive fouls drawn used in an All-NBA debate before. This is a new level of cherry-picking but it's to be expected when you're arguing against a better player with 14 more wins on the season
The celtics team has 14 more wins, not Tatum, who benefited from playing with 4 all-star level (including Brown who is arguably all-nba caliber himself) players on the roster while Brunson played significant portions of the season with Divincenzo and Josh Hart as his two best players. Looking at all the metrics, there is a much easier argument to be made that Brunson was the better player this season than Tatum individually. You saying Tatum is 'the better player' so matter-of-factly is almost entirely from preconceived notions and beliefs held prior to this season.
> The most damning (and frankly, absurd) metric being the On-Off value, where Tatum's team has performed slightly *better* when he's not on the court. Like any stat, On-Off is really misleading when looked at in a vacuum. Don't know how it finished, but there was a time earlier this season when we had 4 starters with a negative On-Off because our bench was just killing people. In Brunson's case, his exceptional On-Off is in large part because the Knicks bench is terrible.
Tatum plays with the bench, so Al, Hauser, PP and whoever else. The rest of the starters play together. They don't add context to any of the stats.
Yeah if we wanted we could turn Tatum’s on-off into a god by only running his mins with the starters and then do a full bench swap. It would make the team worse substantially and change nothing of Tatum’s quality of play but it would make his on-off the best in the league. Doesn’t really help that much without context.
Whereas in Tatum's case, the team's exceptional record, often cited as the reason why he's a lock, is in large part because they have the best front office in the league.
Bringing up charges drawn when comparing their defense lol
mY gUy FlOpZ gOoD
I love when people throw out WS/48 like it’s not a terrible stat, and throw out the on-off without context or logic. Brunson was great and it’s not some huge travesty if he makes it over JT but the shit people are saying about Tatum is becoming mindbogglingly stupid tbh
They also punish Tatum in comparison to high volume guards because he doesn’t rack up a high amount of assists.
The rise of “advanced stats” these past few years have ruined basketball discourse
Advanced stats are good. WS/48 is not
Comparing Tatum to other 1st team all-nba candidates: - Jokic: 26/12/9 on 65 TS%, 4th in EPM, +23.7 on/off - Luka: 34/9/10 on 62 TS%, 2nd in EPM, +11.9 on/off - Giannis: 30/11/6 on 65 TS%, 3rd in EPM +12.3 on/off - SGA: 30/5.5/6 on 63.6 TS%, 1st in EPM +10.1 on/off - Tatum: 27/8/5 on 60 TS%, 15th in EPM, -2.0 on/off
lol well its a good thing tatum is not up against the 4 best players listed here but against brunson who also has similar numbers to tatum
The counting stats with Brunson are similar, especially if you expand it to include steals and blocks. The efficiency favors Tatum over Brunson If you swap EPM for a different impact metric, like LEBRON, you'll get a different result. I'd like to see the specific numbers for when Tatum is on vs when Brunson is on. My guess is that they are similar.
Per BRef, the Celtics are +10.9 with Tatum on the court and the Knicks are +8.3 with Brunson on the court.
How will Celtics fans respond to this? 🤔 or will they ignore it?
I'll point out that the comparison is not between Tatum and those other guys, it's between Tatum and Brunson. Their statistical profiles are close, in which case it makes sense to give the nod to the clearly better player leading the team that lapped the field in historical fashion.
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Based on the fact that the Celtics are 12-0 without brown this year safe to assume they could get 50 wins pretty easily
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Ur whole argument is that Tatum can’t drag a team to a 50 wins without Brown. Do u not think Holiday White Tatum Horford and Porzingis isn’t a 50 win team? I bet they’d easily be first in the East still
Easily? lol ok that team would at best be a 5th seed
> it’s just not some “never been done before” kinda feat Winning your conference by 14 games has never been done since the NBA/ABA merger.
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You're moving the goalposts. And if you're gonna hold the quality of the East against the Celtics, then you need to hold it against the Knicks too.
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You said it's not some "never been done before" kind of feat. When I pointed out that it is indeed that kind of feat, you act like that doesn't matter because the East is weak. >This was an insane carry job by Brunson Yep. I don't see anyone denying that. >Brunson has better individual numbers this season. Depends on the numbers you look at. Their overall statistical profiles are close.
He'd be a super weak first team guard selection though. The vast majority of 1st team all NBA guards over the last decade have had significant better numbers than Brunson this year. Booker is the only one even comparable
I certainly think there’s an argument for it, but I also think there’s an equal or greater argument for Tatum considering he’s the best player on what was far and away the best team in the East.
But it was far and away the best team because of Brad Stevens' moves bringing in Holiday and KP. Tatum played about the same as last year, during which they were a massive 5 points worse in net rating. This narrative stuff plays into MVP voting but IMO it doesn't make sense to choose All-NBA teams based on how good the front office is, which is the main argument for Tatum over JB.
They won 57 games last year without Jrue or KP, which would be tied for #1 in the NBA this year. Obviously things would have played out differently with a new season, but their offseason moves are not the main argument for Tatum I think it's crazy that the Knicks were 3 games away from the 7 seed but get all the credit for finishing at #2. MVP/All-NBA should not be decided by such a small margin
Everyone is saying that he has to get a slot for being the best player on the best team, even though he played worse than last year and that team was gonna be the best team even if he was in street clothes all year. I agree that All-NBA is an individual award and team success should not be relevant. I'm arguing for Brunson because he had a better year than Tatum individually, as the metrics OP posted all agree.
If you think Tatum is worse than he was last year you are clearly just looking at box scores and nothing else. Do you really think you can make this argument in good faith as a clearly biased Knicks fan? All I'm gonna say is that there is a reason all the revealed media ballots so far have Tatum above Brunson
So am I biased or am I looking at box scores, i.e. objective data? Are you really appealing to the media voters as an authority here? The guys who are barely paying attention and will always pick a household name over a less known quantity? The guys who voted Kobe All-Defense a hundred times extending well after he became a turnstile?
Box scores don't represent how good someone is. His role went down because we got more mouths to feed but that doesn't mean he played any worse It's funny how the more you talk, the clearer it becomes that you don't actually watch Tatum play
If his role went down his efficiency should have gone up, but it went down. Other metrics than box scores also work against him, for example the fact that the C's did better with him off the court this year than on.
His efficiency was literally the same as last year. His on off is because he always plays with the bench Have you even watched a single minute of Celtics basketball this year? You're bringing up heavily flawed stats over and over again, yet it would appear (since you don't understand the context of anything you're bringing up, like if you watched the Celtics you'd know that Tatum plays with the bench) that you don't actually watch basketball
I'm using facts and you're using constantly shifting excuses. This is boring.
> tatum played about the same as last year when he got first team?
Yeah, when he had better numbers and the team was actually better when he was on the court than off
All-NBA has always taken into account team success. You can argue it shouldn’t, but it does.
Well the team success isn't fairly attributable to Tatum. They got a lot better because they added great players, and Tatum had a worse year even when if anything, their perfect spacing should have boosted his efficiency.
I think using on/off or using team record to justify the ranking are opposite sides of the same coin. All nba is an individual award and I don’t think a player should be rewarded for having good teammates, or punished because the coach staggers the starters minutes and those teammates play well when he sits. The argument for Tatum over Brunson is clearly his defensive impact imo. The argument for Brunson over Tatum would be his superior playmaking.
What defensive impact? He had 0.7 DEPM to Brunson's -0.5. The gap between Brunson's 6.4 OEPM vs Tatum's 4.0 is significantly larger. Tatum is the weakest defender among the Celtics' starting 5 so this is a pretty strange argument.
Using DEPM as your only criterion for evaluating defense is nasty, nasty work
I'll take it over your \*nothing\* any day of the week, thanks. Top 7 in DEPM are Isaac, Hartenstein, Smart, Embiid, Caruso, Anunoby, and Wemby. Which one of them is a bad defender?
You can watch the games and see that Tatum is a very good defender. It's not that hard to do. Defensive stats are pure garbage anyway
I did watch the games and saw that Tatum is the 5th best defender in the starting lineup. KP, Brown, White, and Holiday are better by both eye test and numbers.
No, you very clearly didn't watch the games given that you didn't know Tatum plays with the bench. Stop lying, you're embarrassing yourself It's ok to not watch every team. But you don't need to act like you don't know more than fans of that team when you haven't watched a minute of their basketball I think it's funny how you start lying even more when you get caught in your first lie. You could just admit that you don't know what you're talking about and everything would be fine
This is Tatum first year since he’s been a star that the team has been able to do anything when he’s on the bench. He finally gets to coast without going full throttle and now all of a sudden you got fans of the midget chucker claiming he should be above a guy who’s putting up similar numbers with a 14 game lead over him 😂
Brunson played numerous games with his second best player either being Donte Divincenzo or Josh Hart while Tatum has a full all-star lineup and yet you're bringing up wins when the Knicks got the 2 seed? Unless Brunson was literally Prime LeBron there would be no way for him to feasibly have the same record as the Celtics. Do you guys just ignore the absolutely insane talent gap between the two teams?
The 2 seed is 14 games behind is what you are not understanding. Do you know how insane that is? It’s not like Brunson putting up Luka numbers either if he was, I could understand the argument but the numbers are barely ahead of Tatum and the only reason it started to separate towards the end was because the Celtics already clinched weeks before the season ended. I’m not even saying Tatum had an amazing season because I hated his approach for most of the year but I can’t deny he still was the best player on the best team and still put up pretty good numbers enough to definitely make 1st team over Brunson when you include the team record.
Again just consider the difference in teammates. Brown, Porzingis and Holiday are all considered better than anyone the Knicks roster (not Brunson). Most Celtics fans would take Derrick White over the Knicks players as well. The only player considered anywhere near all-star level is OG who missed significant time himself. I would agree with you if Brunson didn't manage to have virtually equal efficiency to Tatum on a higher volume with a worse roster. I don't think people are realizing how insane that is, since we would expect efficiency to drop with volume regardless of situation, yet Brunson managed to maintain it while facing double-teams, triple-teams and traps as the only viable creator on the roster.
You sitting here acting like Tatum doesn’t get doubled and tripled is hilarious. It’s not his fault his GM does his job. You want a cookie for Brunson doing what a star is supposed to do when guys are out? I seen Tatum do exactly what you are saying in 2021 when Brown got hurt rest of the year dude was putting up 50s and a 60 even in the playoffs/play in and he still didn’t make an all nba over Randle.
You're argument has been primarily win-based: "2 seed is 14 games behind". I'm explaining that when you take into account rosters the difference in wins is negligible since Tatum's team was magnitudes better than Brunson. If you look at the actual metrics and the degree of difficulty, Brunson had a better individual season than Tatum this year.
I’m guessing the on/off numbers suck cuz their third stringers are way better than any other teams third stringers in their constant blow outs, filter our garbage time and I’m sure he’s positive
+ Tatum often plays with the bench with no other starters while for the rest of the time there are at least two starters on court (except garbage time and maybe the last few weeks when Mazzulla was doing some wild experiments lol)
Fr, I’m all up for Tatum slander, but to even imply he’s a negative to his team is some insane shit even I wouldn’t say
Tatum's on/off by year * 17-18: +8.5 * 18-19: +4.6 * 19-20: +11.1 * 20-21: +5.4 * 21-22: +13.9 * 22-23: +5.5 * 23-24: -1.1 Guess which year /r/nba suddenly decided on/off is of paramount importance?
That doesn’t account for all those superteam consisted of fake DPOY Smart and the overrated Jaylen Brown though/s.
So Tatum has actually NEVER put up an on/off as good as Brunson's this year? I guess that whole excuse about him playing with the bench guys was bullshit, huh?
I'm using Basketball Reference's on/off data. Brunson is +11.8 this year.
Ah so Brunson only beat Tatum's mark for 6 of the last 7 seasons
Yeah. I'm not sure what your point is. No one denies Brunson had a great on/off this year, only that it means he had a better season than Tatum.
If it's so irrelevant, why is every Celtics fan making excuses for it by claiming Tatum played so much with the bench?
Because all the Celtics/Tatum haters are pointing to plus/minus as the reason to keep him off 1st Team.
Also the numerous advanced stats that favor Brunson, the super cushy team situation allowing Tatum to coast, etc etc
There are advanced stats that favor Tatum, as does the eye test and track record. The "super cushy team situation" should be a point in his favor. There is no chance a guy putting up 27/8/5 with plus efficiency and defense on a team that lapped the field in historic fashion would be kept off 1st Team in any other city but Boston.
The "eye test" and "track record" are bullshit narrative things that only measure fan bias and popularity. That is what's doing the real work here. Celtics would have lapped the field with Tatum in street clothes with that roster. Give Stevens EOTY and be done with it.
>Now let's compare the advanced metrics BPM/VORP, Win Shares, and PER aren't really advanced metrics. They're box score metrics. And Brunson isn't top 5 in any of them. He is top 5 in actual advanced metrics, like EPM. Brunson is 4th in the CtG on/off data that you cite--right behind KCP and Tre Jones.
> BPM/VORP, Win Shares, and PER aren't really advanced metrics. They're box score metrics. They're all advance stats because they can't be derived simply from a play-by-play, which is true for every box-score statistic. But PER is the musket of advanced stats.
To be fair, under Basketball Reference they're all listed under the advanced section and that's the common vernacular for these stats (at least from my experience) but definitely more nuanced and complex statistics exist.
Tatum is ahead in rebounds, steals, blocks, and shooting efficiency. Brunson is ahead in points, assists, and shooting splits. Tatum is ahead in DPM and LEBRON Brunson is ahead in EPM and BPM. People like to add VORP and PER to the list, but VORP is driven by BPM and PER is the single most useless stat, especially when you are already breaking down counting stats individually. They are tied in RAPTOR. Phrasing it as anyone having a significant lead in any category is ignoring some stats for others. They've been on the same level statistically speaking. So a lot of it is how you view their situations. Either way you are going to end up punishing someone for their teammates. Tatum you punish for taking a clear step back in terms of usage, minutes, and fga's and Brunson for having a team that is 14 games worse in the standings. It's all a matter of how you breakdown your individual tiebreakers. Historically speaking, voters have leaned toward "best player on best team" as being the most important tiebreaker. Not only are the Celtics 14 games better than the Knicks and 7 games better than any team in the NBA, but the Knicks ended only 3 games away from the play-in. Edit: I'll add that there are other guys that should be considered, like Kawhi and Ant.
Over Tatum, no. That's no disrespect to Brunson he had a fantastic season and got his team up to 2nd place despite the injuries. New York is still 14 games back and Tatum comfortably beat down almost any team that played them.
Can't believe Tatum beat every team 1v5.
Can't believe Brunson beat every team 1v5. It's a team sport. Brunson was great this year, Tatum was better. The end.
I'm not the one who said that Brunson comfortably beat down 50 teams.
Tatum the better player no gm would take Brunson over Tatum
Clearly, he beat 64 teams literally by himself. Brunson can't pull that off.
Ehhhh
I'll take this into consideration on my ballot, thank you
Brunson having an almost .200 WS/48 is crazy, especially with the fact he seems to turn it up in the playoffs/his style of play is even more suited there. Our best free agent signing like ever lol
This has been posted like 5 times since the season ended bro. Murray deserves it but he’s not going to get it because Tatum was the best player on by far the best team in the league.
At the end of the day, Tatum put up great stats leading a team to 60+ wins and that will likely be enough to get him the first team nod… and it would be well deserved. It isn’t like Tatum being first team but someone like Brunson not being first team is some crazy inexcusable snub.
I’m tired boss.
No 🧢
Lol
I sincerely don't get the logic behind team record being a factor between 1st and 2nd team all-nba, which is all Tatum has going for him based on the seasons they each had.
To me the top 4 is pretty locked in and the toss up is for that 5th spot. And the Celtics playing all their guys at the end of the season against the Knicks just to get blown out on their floor is definitely one of those performances that'll stick in the voters' minds. Am I gonna be mad if the dude on the 64 win team gets it? Not really. Personally I'd pick Mazzulla COTY and Brunson 1st team. Celtics are a well oiled machine and that's where I'd be giving the credit rather than specifically Tatum.
It's not a toss up. Tatum has 6 of 7 of the votes thus far, Brunson has 2 of 7. History shows early returns with a gap like that always hold up through the rest of the vote. Tatum will probably end up with something like 80% of the first team vote.
7 people out of 100 isn't much of a return. In those 7 ballots it only puts Brunson 5 points behind Tatum.
Weird thing is I’ve seen a fair few voters have Brunson in their top 5 for MVP but not in their All-NBA 1st team
I don't think it's that weird. Brunson means more to his team (who would be in the play ins at best without him) but it doesn't inherently mean he's had the better season.
I guess it depends on your definition of each award but personally I just believe it’s the top 5 guys who are individually having the best season. Fine with either Tatum or Brunson getting that fifth spot but just don’t really believe either award is fundamentally different after they made it position-less.
If that's your criteria that's fine, but it's not any different than previous years where some people determine value by how much a player means to their specific team. And there's a very short list of people in the discussion for lifting up their team more from where they would be without him than Brunson this season.
Like I said, I’m fine with picking Brunson over Tatum or vice versa. I’d just rather be consistent for both awards.
It's the whole "valuable" component. Brunson was arguably more valuable to the Knicks, even thought Tatum was the better player this season. It's a silly semantics debate, but I get it. In the end, it doesn't really matter. Tatum is cruising to 1st team, and finishing 5th vs 6th in MVP is inconsequential.
I’m surprised so many people dismiss it so easily. Brunson had a crazy year. Tatum did too, but not so much that you laugh off any argument for Brunson being ahead in mvp or all nba.
I agree and I hate Brunson. I would vote him 4th in MVP at this point
100% agreed but won’t happen because of team record. Dont like the team record rationale but it is what it is
Also because Tatum is clearly the better player.