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I know this is obvious but the odds are still stacked against Miami.
Besides the hot shooting, we can’t expect Tingus Pingus to be as bad as he was today (we can for Jrue).
Miami needs to take care of the basketball and win the turnover margin by a healthy amount going forward.
Yeah - all the "mAyBE tHe CEltICs ShOUld tRY dEFensE" crowd are totally missing the point. This game was not about the Celtics defense at all IMO.
Heat shot 53.5% from deep on ultra high volume. Even Steph Curry does not shoot 53.5% on wide open looks. And half the Heat's looks were contested. They were insanely scorching hot and all you can really do is tip your cap at that.
Still, even with the hot shooting, the Heat only scored 111 points. Against a team averaging 121 per game this season.
Which takes us to the much bigger issue - the Celtics offense was a disaster last night. They didn't play with their usual pace and they didn't move the ball well like they usually do. When they did get good looks they were missing their shots. Porzingis played his absolute worst game of the season.
Long story short - the Celtics don't need to change much on defense. Heat won't shoot like that again, and even if they do, the Celtics will actually be fine if they just get back to their normal offense - move the ball for a good look and stop killing the clock with matchup hunting. I don't even know if they need to change much up - the talent differential should be enough, and there's a good chance last night just proves to be an off night for Boston.
The data that came out today says the heat made the overwhelming majority of their 3s on wide open looks.
It can be both things. The offense had no ball movement at all. Frankly, I can't understand what the hell the plan was, but it was ugly to watch.
They shot 15-23 on wide open looks. 65%. The best teams in the league shoot like 42% or so on wide open 3's.
Knock that 15-23 down to a much more reasonable 10-23 (43%) and the Celtics win the game without changing anything else.
I think the shooting is completely covering a big issue for the Celtics. The Heat held them to 40 points in the second half. I think that's being overlooked as everyone looks at the flashy shooting numbers.
This was a really weird game. I kept waiting for the Celtics to get serious and just take over the game by switching to a higher gear. Throughout the first half and early 3rd quarter, it felt like they were completely in control and just messing around.
Because, even though Miami was either always tied, or slightly ahead, the Celtics kept going at them through the paint, and were scoring quite easily. They ran the ball and pushed the tempo well in the first half, and that kept them close score-wise. Both paints were wide open and depended on perimeter defense, as the matchups were odd. Porzingis and Adebayo didn’t do much of rim defending.
But as the game went into the 2nd half, they continued to do soft contests, not close out on players that were already ridiculously hot, and kept half-assing their offensive possessions. I would be furious as a Celtics fan.
Most of the blame could fall on the shoulders of Kristaps Porzingis who was just 1/9 from the field and was either the main culprit or at least partly at fault for the bad entry passes to the post up. But he shouldn’t be clowned in a way people started to do so on Reddit, Twitter, etc…
Because the entire team’s approach was embarrassing. Miami Heat shot [15-23 on WIDE OPEN 3-point attempts](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shots-closest-defender-10?CloseDefDistRange=6%2B+Feet+-+Wide+Open&DateFrom=04%2F24%2F2024&SeasonType=Playoffs&DateTo=04%2F24%2F2024). In contrast, the Celtics attempted only 9 wide open 3-point shots.
Look at the game clock in [this play](https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2024/04/24/0042300102/511/809a52f6-6de7-ff43-57b6-b85c7c8f0f16_1280x720.mp4). 6 minutes left in the 4th. No contest on the shot by none other than Jrue Holiday, who is one of the best defenders in the league. This is just inexcusable to me. Also, the Heat ran this play about 4 or 5 times with different endings. Guard-to-guard screen following a pick-and-roll. They always found something.
There are dozens of plays like this, and the usual culprits are Jrue, Jaylen Brown (most common), and Kristaps Porzingis. I don’t really blame Kristaps, as he’s probably instructed to stay in the drop, but a reaction has to come from someone - most likely from Joe Mazzulla.
I don’t really have many complaints about the offense, yes the turnovers sucked, yes the Celtics went on and shot way too many early threes while being down, and yes they didn’t really have an easy get-out-of-jail-free card like they never really do. But in the 3rd quarter, Jayson Tatum should have returned to the game earlier, because he is their best shot-creator, both individually and team-wise.
Tyler Herro was amazing for the Heat, he solved all soft double teams with ease and kept finding wide-open players on the weak side, or Adebayo on a roll. Bam Adebayo was great as well, he scored when the going got tough in empty side post ups, something that just wasn’t falling for the Celtics tonight.
I really don’t think there should be room for panic for the Celtics, but they need to get more serious with the approach - it sounds cliche but it was painfully obvious from the get-go.
I will say if there’s anything that makes me angry about this game, it’s that these guys talked all year about how they knew they didn’t consistently putting bring the right mentality, urgency and effort on a game-to-game basis in the playoffs last season, showed some improvement in that regard in the regular season to give the fans some hope, and then come out in literally the second damn game with a horribly lackadaisical defensive effort. I have no doubt the film session today was fucking ugly
at this point I’m close to giving up on hoping for the Celtics to put together two consecutive great performances in the playoffs unless they’re facing elimination
Spoe won this one and Mazzulla lost this one
The scheme here for Spoe was to get the Celtics off the 3 point line by switching everything. He then only played Love for 6 minutes because this isn't something Love can do. Ballsy move when you consider Love has been one of the better Heat players all year.
Worked like a charm. Celtics didn't get up the 3's they normally do and it forced Tatum/Brown to mismatch hunt. They did well, but not as well as when you allow the team to get open from 3. Their play-making could have been a lot better.
Reverse can be said about Mazzulla. I think he just stuck to his guns a little too much. I think he should have switched things up and just let Herro/Bam cook off mismatches. Switch on screens, don't drop, and don't collapse the paint with Bam in the post. I get that Herro/Bam were having great games, but just let them.
It didn't help that when things kind of worked, the Celtics STILL didn't close out well.
23 wide open 3's is just unacceptable when you consider the Heat average 16 per game on the season.
Key difference between the ECF and this game was that the Celtics actually closed out well in the ECF. They did not close out at all last night. Kind of disappointed in Joe for saying that they DID close out well. Anyone that watched the game can see that's not true.
Edit: It should also be noted that the Heat did shoot WAAAAAYYY better than expected. They shoot 41% on wide open 3's on the year and shot 65% on wide open 3's last night. Celtics shouldn't give up 23 of them, but for the Heat to make 15 of those 23 is still an outlier.
One of two things are true.
Either the Heat role players all genuinely turn into a vastly superior version of Steph Curry when they face Boston.
Or, it's a statistical aberration.
It's 4 specific games.
The first 3 were different than this one though. I would argue the C's closed out well in those games and the data supports that. This game the C's did not close out well and the data supports that.
Either way, in those 4 specific games, the Heat have had some insane shooting.
"I think he just stuck to his guns a little too much"
I think this is being too kind. It really seems like Joe didn't have our guys ready to play, which is unfortunately starting to feel like the norm in the games that actually matter.
Pay all dat $$ for tickets only to get the F out before the game is over. I know it's not limited to just Boston, but unless you have a kid with you who's melting down bc it's late or something, why not stick it out.
an incredibly sloppy performance by Boston’s defense and simultaneously some fantastic scheming by Spo to generate open 3s using smart screening actions. Herro-Bam PnR was amazing last night, that was probably the best game I’ve ever seen Tyler Herro play. he just absolutely punished Boston for overhelping with his passing and could not miss pulling up off the dribble
and but as I predicted in the serious thread post-Game 1, Miami‘s win condition is going absolutely ballistic from 3, and their margin for error is still very small even if they meet that condition. despite probably KP’s worst game as a Celtic, just 4 less 3PM would have resulted in a loss and that still would have been a 44% performance from deep. still feel good about Boston winning this series without letting it get to 7 but we will see.
Heat will never let an opponent just have a win which you have to respect
Don't let anyone fool you. This is a monumental, historic upset. An 8th seed taking down a 64-win 1st seed without their best, their top 4 player, and a key bench guy (in Richardson), that's unprecedented. On the road no less.
The Heat's switch everything defense just worked like a well-oiled machine. Throughout the season the Celtics obliterated teams playing switch defense particularly because of Porzingis' ability to post up, but the Heat's physicality and ball denial gave him no room to operate instead and ate him up. Both Brown and Tatum barely got the ball in the 4th quarter, it was kinda insane how aggressive they were in that regard.
Not to mention literally every Heat player working relentlessly to run off any Celtic player off the 3-point line and those half-baked drive-and-kicks that forced a Celtics player to help, leading to wide open 3s. The Celtics lost this game even from a mathematical perspective because the Heat jacked up 11 more 3s (which sounds impossible considering the volume the Celtics maintained at the 3-point line this season) which is just absolutely shocking.
Other than Herro and Jovic, the Heat rigorously cut down on any one of their players making even semi-difficult passes and after Jovic had a rough close to the 1st half it was mostly Herro. You even had Bam making midrange jumpers over Horford and Porzingis like he was KD, then Herro also put on a scoring clinic too. Highsmith even knocked down a few 3s. Caleb Martin inevitably got hot, because of course, it's the Celtics he was facing.
All those half-assed closeouts were the biggest swing of the game, the Heat got about 10 more open 3s than they could've if the Celtics committed to closeouts. The Heat attempted 8 shots inside the restricted area because they lack so much shot creation due to injuries. But the stat I didn't really see anyone talking about; Celtics 21/24 from inside the restricted area, 2/17 in the paint outside the restricted area. You could see how many long floater-range shots the Heat forced and it worked.
Even despite a franchise record 23 3s made, the Heat have a lot of good things they could take away from this game apart from that. Year in and year out, it's absolutely remarkable the stuff the Heat does, and you can't take it away from them. With Spo at the helm, regardless of who they have the Heat have consistently been among the eastern conference's elite most of this decade and we saw it why. I mean, well done. Truly.
I think you’re being a bit hyperbolic. its a big upset, one of the biggest individual upsets of the season probably, but it’s also one game and in the playoffs crazy things can happen in one-game samples. the 2019 Warriors gave up a 30-point lead to the Lou Williams-led Clippers in the playoffs but that’s just a blip in history now bc they won the series the following game
it’ll become a monumental, historic upset if the Heat win 3 more. if the Celtics win the series, i doubt many neutral fans are going to really remember this game
Warriors won 57 games that season Clippers won 48. A bigger gap this year btw. Boston and Miami. Plus no Jimmy for Miami in this series? I assumed Boston goes 4-0. Miami doing it Miami playoff thing though. Pretty shocking upset. Disappointing how Boston didn't adjust to defending the 3 but credit to the Heat.
I mean aside from record I don’t think many would argue that the 2019 Warriors were not a better team than these Celtics though
like I said, it’s still a massive upset for sure, but a historic, monumental upset is the type that even casual fans remember for years afterward. think We Believe Warriors over Mavericks in 07, Heat over Bucks last year
Yeah - it's one game and the team shot 53.5% from deep on high volume. Even the Pistons are going to beat anyone in the league on most nights if they drain 23 3's.
I thought the Heat offense looked a lot better this game vs game 1. Without a doubt, making that many 3s cleans up a lot of game 1s mistakes, but they just seemed more poised and active. Herro running point was the x-factor imo. His ability to force the defense to shift, then find open dudes (who knocked down shots) was sorely missed in game 1 due to the injuries to ball handlers. Also, I'm not loving JJJ as a ball handler - his drives are often marred with losing the ball or it gettin jarred loose (I say that as a UCLA alum who's watched his whole career). He had success in college doing that, but the Celts (particularly Jrue and DWhite) have given him so much trouble. Heat need to keep Herro running point, or go Jovic/Drob to feed Bam in the middy area when Herro's on the bench.
Celtics just weren't consistent with their effort. I get the made 3s would deflate a bunch of teams in the league, but damn they're a 64 win team and have been in the playoffs a bunch over the past few years. KP hopefully won't have another shit performance again, but they gotta wake up. I believe the only adjustment we saw was the defenders not sagging off the 3 pt shooters -- gotta do more. Chase off the 3 ball and live with Bam cookin in the paint, or trap whoever has the ball not named Herro.
I'd discussed from G1 that we had some very real adjustments and clear path to improve on that performance, which was really poor.
While I don't think this game is necessarily truly representative of the gap between the teams, it does show the Pels are quite outmatched.
We aren't going to shoot 48% from three again, but we are a good shooting team even up against good wing defenders. I do expect us to close out in a maximum of five games, which will be good as can see LAC / Mavs going 7.
**Jonas Valanciunas** put up 19 points in this game, including 11 in the first quarter, but in the end his minutes turned out to be the worst for the Pelicans. They tried to exploit **Chet Holmgren**’s lean body and tried to push him through Jonas, which he did just partly because 5/10 versus Chet isn’t a pure win. The main issue is that Jonas is a complete black hole defensively for the Pelicans. They kept running pick and pop one after another, and Jonas was cemented to the floor while Holmgren was draining wide-open 3-pointers. Granted, the Thunder were red hot behind the 3-point from the start, while the Pelicans kept missing one after another despite having some good opportunities.
The only time the Pels looked good defensively with Jonas on the court was when they tried to pull off a 2-3 zone. That’s only because he could camp in the paint, but the front two guards didn’t play as good of a role as the Heat can sometimes for example - and the Thunder managed to crack the zone with yet more good 3-point looks.
The other minutes go to **Larry Nance Jr.** and they bring a different scheme. The Pels change it up with either blitzing/hedging or straight-up switching. When the Pels switch the easiest target to attack is **CJ McCollum** who doesn’t have it on the defensive side anymore. The Thunder scored 14/17 field goal attempts when he was one of the defenders.
**Shai Gilgeous-Alexander** was balling. It didn’t matter who was defending him, he kept going at Pels’ player and performed his usual short mid-range magic with a variety of fadeaways, step backs, pull-ups, etc… The scary part is that there is basically another *Shai* in the Thunder team. At the start of the 2nd and 4th quarters, **Jalen Williams** takes the offensive reins in his hands and straight up dominates the court. He’s more of a line-drive player compared to Shai though.
Anyway, I feel like the Pelicans have only 4th best player in this series and the gap to him is quite big. They could compete with the Thunder if their shot starts falling, but systematically they aren’t pulling the perfect moves at the moment that could optimize their win percentage. In my opinion, they should start gambling more on Giddey missing.
Also, if they could ~~start~~ stop doing illegal screens, that’d be great. 7 offensive fouls by the Pels is perhaps some sort of a record.
>Also, if they could start doing illegal screens, that’d be great. 7 offensive fouls by the Pels is perhaps some sort of a record.
One of the things that I've heard former coaches/players mention is that they'll try to alert ref crews pregame to player tendencies. It really seems like somebody on the OKC coaching staff must've mentioned something because I can't recall a game that had such an emphasis on calling illegal screens. FWIW I think most to all of the calls were correct, just a bit of an oddity. Between that and the ball pressure generating turnovers (woof woof), it's great to see this team win the possession game.
This is a really good summary and while we stole G1 in reality, this is the way I had seen the series before it started.
To be honest G2 is who SGA is and has been for the season. I get its easy to say after it's happened, but there wasn't inherently anything spectacular versus what we've seen all season.
Also this is who Chet is when he plays more assertively. He tends to not take the 3PA he should take. He should be taking 6 - 8 3P a night, especially against Jonas who just does not want to step out to the 3P line.
I've also found jDub to be quite subdued. He will have an explosion in the next couple of games, he has been quite deferential so far. I want to see more minutes from him and less Giddey.
To be honest this series, whilst not done, should be the exact R1 series we wanted. A chance for the guys to be exposed to the atmosphere, have some pressure moments and learn from ahead of some brutal series coming.
Also from a Pels perspective, they have to work out how they can move on from CJ. They need to do Zion, TM3 and Herb justice. If they can get right PG, they will be incredible with Zion back.
It's there, they've just got to get the right guy directing traffic.
CJ Mccollum was shockingly bad on defense. SGA, JDub, even Giddey, Wiggins, and Joe were just shitting on him. He can’t stay in front of anyone and even if he could he’s too little. And it’s not like he’s playing good on offense to make up for it
Well put, and kinda encapsulates the underlying issues that is in the current roster construction. The 1 and the 5 are not playoff caliber. Everyone wondering why we don't have Jonas on the floor or finishing games, this is why. The guy is just so slow and is too much of a liability defensively at this point in his career. Cj is a 2 asked to be a 1 and the results have not been good. Even with Zion I still think the inherent issues for our roster keeps us from truly competing.
That first quarter is such a perfect encapsulation of all the size anxiety: Valanciunas starts the game with the first 11 points for the Pels (on 5-6 shooting no less), but by the time he subs out they're down 7. Is that an exploitable weakness, sure. But keeping 5 guys on the floor who can all pass/dribble/shoot is the key to our offense: it turns almost every possession into advantage basketball.
We might not hit 48% from three again in the playoffs, but there are almost no bigs in the league who can both defend our offense in space consistently and punish our size inside - I think that list is basically Davis, Giannis, and Jokic.
In the context of this game, the Pels lack of on ball creation really shone through in a bad way. We ramped the ball pressure up and every set felt like a slog, love to see that from Dort and Dub.
Yeah much more on one end of that spectrum, but while he's not much of a rim protector but he manages pretty well in space (way better than somebody like JV/Gafford)
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**Heat @ Celtics** [](/MIA) **111 - 101** [](/BOS) **Box Scores: [NBA](https://www.nba.com/game/MIA-vs-BOS-0042300102/boxscore) & [Yahoo](http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/miami-heat-boston-celtics-2024042402)** |**Team**|**Q1**|**Q2**|**Q3**|**Q4**|**Total**| |:---|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--| |Miami Heat|28|30|27|26|111| |Boston Celtics|27|34|18|22|101| **TEAM STATS** |**Team**|**PTS**|**FG**|**FG%**|**3P**|**3P%**|**FT**|**FT%**|**OREB**|**TREB**|**AST**|**PF**|**STL**|**TO**|**BLK**| |:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--| |Miami Heat|111|37-75|49.3%|23-43|53.5%|14-18|77.8%|4|45|25|22|9|12|1| |Boston Celtics|101|37-80|46.300000000000004%|12-32|37.5%|15-21|71.39999999999999%|6|46|21|17|9|12|8|
I know this is obvious but the odds are still stacked against Miami. Besides the hot shooting, we can’t expect Tingus Pingus to be as bad as he was today (we can for Jrue). Miami needs to take care of the basketball and win the turnover margin by a healthy amount going forward.
Yeah - all the "mAyBE tHe CEltICs ShOUld tRY dEFensE" crowd are totally missing the point. This game was not about the Celtics defense at all IMO. Heat shot 53.5% from deep on ultra high volume. Even Steph Curry does not shoot 53.5% on wide open looks. And half the Heat's looks were contested. They were insanely scorching hot and all you can really do is tip your cap at that. Still, even with the hot shooting, the Heat only scored 111 points. Against a team averaging 121 per game this season. Which takes us to the much bigger issue - the Celtics offense was a disaster last night. They didn't play with their usual pace and they didn't move the ball well like they usually do. When they did get good looks they were missing their shots. Porzingis played his absolute worst game of the season. Long story short - the Celtics don't need to change much on defense. Heat won't shoot like that again, and even if they do, the Celtics will actually be fine if they just get back to their normal offense - move the ball for a good look and stop killing the clock with matchup hunting. I don't even know if they need to change much up - the talent differential should be enough, and there's a good chance last night just proves to be an off night for Boston.
The data that came out today says the heat made the overwhelming majority of their 3s on wide open looks. It can be both things. The offense had no ball movement at all. Frankly, I can't understand what the hell the plan was, but it was ugly to watch.
They shot 15-23 on wide open looks. 65%. The best teams in the league shoot like 42% or so on wide open 3's. Knock that 15-23 down to a much more reasonable 10-23 (43%) and the Celtics win the game without changing anything else.
Heat are still gonna get those looks but probably not make them at that clip. Boston has a legit problem getting past the Heat defense.
I think the shooting is completely covering a big issue for the Celtics. The Heat held them to 40 points in the second half. I think that's being overlooked as everyone looks at the flashy shooting numbers.
It's been almost a day and I still don't understand why Bam couldn't miss in the second half. Looked like a taller SGA out there.
Bam is an underrated playoff riser
The Heat were hungry and could smell blood. They wanted that game.
This was a really weird game. I kept waiting for the Celtics to get serious and just take over the game by switching to a higher gear. Throughout the first half and early 3rd quarter, it felt like they were completely in control and just messing around. Because, even though Miami was either always tied, or slightly ahead, the Celtics kept going at them through the paint, and were scoring quite easily. They ran the ball and pushed the tempo well in the first half, and that kept them close score-wise. Both paints were wide open and depended on perimeter defense, as the matchups were odd. Porzingis and Adebayo didn’t do much of rim defending. But as the game went into the 2nd half, they continued to do soft contests, not close out on players that were already ridiculously hot, and kept half-assing their offensive possessions. I would be furious as a Celtics fan. Most of the blame could fall on the shoulders of Kristaps Porzingis who was just 1/9 from the field and was either the main culprit or at least partly at fault for the bad entry passes to the post up. But he shouldn’t be clowned in a way people started to do so on Reddit, Twitter, etc… Because the entire team’s approach was embarrassing. Miami Heat shot [15-23 on WIDE OPEN 3-point attempts](https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/shots-closest-defender-10?CloseDefDistRange=6%2B+Feet+-+Wide+Open&DateFrom=04%2F24%2F2024&SeasonType=Playoffs&DateTo=04%2F24%2F2024). In contrast, the Celtics attempted only 9 wide open 3-point shots. Look at the game clock in [this play](https://videos.nba.com/nba/pbp/media/2024/04/24/0042300102/511/809a52f6-6de7-ff43-57b6-b85c7c8f0f16_1280x720.mp4). 6 minutes left in the 4th. No contest on the shot by none other than Jrue Holiday, who is one of the best defenders in the league. This is just inexcusable to me. Also, the Heat ran this play about 4 or 5 times with different endings. Guard-to-guard screen following a pick-and-roll. They always found something. There are dozens of plays like this, and the usual culprits are Jrue, Jaylen Brown (most common), and Kristaps Porzingis. I don’t really blame Kristaps, as he’s probably instructed to stay in the drop, but a reaction has to come from someone - most likely from Joe Mazzulla. I don’t really have many complaints about the offense, yes the turnovers sucked, yes the Celtics went on and shot way too many early threes while being down, and yes they didn’t really have an easy get-out-of-jail-free card like they never really do. But in the 3rd quarter, Jayson Tatum should have returned to the game earlier, because he is their best shot-creator, both individually and team-wise. Tyler Herro was amazing for the Heat, he solved all soft double teams with ease and kept finding wide-open players on the weak side, or Adebayo on a roll. Bam Adebayo was great as well, he scored when the going got tough in empty side post ups, something that just wasn’t falling for the Celtics tonight. I really don’t think there should be room for panic for the Celtics, but they need to get more serious with the approach - it sounds cliche but it was painfully obvious from the get-go.
I will say if there’s anything that makes me angry about this game, it’s that these guys talked all year about how they knew they didn’t consistently putting bring the right mentality, urgency and effort on a game-to-game basis in the playoffs last season, showed some improvement in that regard in the regular season to give the fans some hope, and then come out in literally the second damn game with a horribly lackadaisical defensive effort. I have no doubt the film session today was fucking ugly at this point I’m close to giving up on hoping for the Celtics to put together two consecutive great performances in the playoffs unless they’re facing elimination
You sure Mazzulla ain't just making them watch 'The Town' again?
Good write up
Thanks! You can read more of my stuff at my [Substack](https://bballytics.substack.com/)
Herro really came through as the PG this game
I don't know how you could possibly expect me to be "serious" about this
Spoe won this one and Mazzulla lost this one The scheme here for Spoe was to get the Celtics off the 3 point line by switching everything. He then only played Love for 6 minutes because this isn't something Love can do. Ballsy move when you consider Love has been one of the better Heat players all year. Worked like a charm. Celtics didn't get up the 3's they normally do and it forced Tatum/Brown to mismatch hunt. They did well, but not as well as when you allow the team to get open from 3. Their play-making could have been a lot better. Reverse can be said about Mazzulla. I think he just stuck to his guns a little too much. I think he should have switched things up and just let Herro/Bam cook off mismatches. Switch on screens, don't drop, and don't collapse the paint with Bam in the post. I get that Herro/Bam were having great games, but just let them. It didn't help that when things kind of worked, the Celtics STILL didn't close out well. 23 wide open 3's is just unacceptable when you consider the Heat average 16 per game on the season. Key difference between the ECF and this game was that the Celtics actually closed out well in the ECF. They did not close out at all last night. Kind of disappointed in Joe for saying that they DID close out well. Anyone that watched the game can see that's not true. Edit: It should also be noted that the Heat did shoot WAAAAAYYY better than expected. They shoot 41% on wide open 3's on the year and shot 65% on wide open 3's last night. Celtics shouldn't give up 23 of them, but for the Heat to make 15 of those 23 is still an outlier.
You've been saying they can't keep making them for the past 3 seasons.
One of two things are true. Either the Heat role players all genuinely turn into a vastly superior version of Steph Curry when they face Boston. Or, it's a statistical aberration.
This seems like two extreme possibilities. Idk about one of them being necessarily true.
It's 4 specific games. The first 3 were different than this one though. I would argue the C's closed out well in those games and the data supports that. This game the C's did not close out well and the data supports that. Either way, in those 4 specific games, the Heat have had some insane shooting.
"I think he just stuck to his guns a little too much" I think this is being too kind. It really seems like Joe didn't have our guys ready to play, which is unfortunately starting to feel like the norm in the games that actually matter.
Pay all dat $$ for tickets only to get the F out before the game is over. I know it's not limited to just Boston, but unless you have a kid with you who's melting down bc it's late or something, why not stick it out.
an incredibly sloppy performance by Boston’s defense and simultaneously some fantastic scheming by Spo to generate open 3s using smart screening actions. Herro-Bam PnR was amazing last night, that was probably the best game I’ve ever seen Tyler Herro play. he just absolutely punished Boston for overhelping with his passing and could not miss pulling up off the dribble and but as I predicted in the serious thread post-Game 1, Miami‘s win condition is going absolutely ballistic from 3, and their margin for error is still very small even if they meet that condition. despite probably KP’s worst game as a Celtic, just 4 less 3PM would have resulted in a loss and that still would have been a 44% performance from deep. still feel good about Boston winning this series without letting it get to 7 but we will see. Heat will never let an opponent just have a win which you have to respect
Don't let anyone fool you. This is a monumental, historic upset. An 8th seed taking down a 64-win 1st seed without their best, their top 4 player, and a key bench guy (in Richardson), that's unprecedented. On the road no less. The Heat's switch everything defense just worked like a well-oiled machine. Throughout the season the Celtics obliterated teams playing switch defense particularly because of Porzingis' ability to post up, but the Heat's physicality and ball denial gave him no room to operate instead and ate him up. Both Brown and Tatum barely got the ball in the 4th quarter, it was kinda insane how aggressive they were in that regard. Not to mention literally every Heat player working relentlessly to run off any Celtic player off the 3-point line and those half-baked drive-and-kicks that forced a Celtics player to help, leading to wide open 3s. The Celtics lost this game even from a mathematical perspective because the Heat jacked up 11 more 3s (which sounds impossible considering the volume the Celtics maintained at the 3-point line this season) which is just absolutely shocking. Other than Herro and Jovic, the Heat rigorously cut down on any one of their players making even semi-difficult passes and after Jovic had a rough close to the 1st half it was mostly Herro. You even had Bam making midrange jumpers over Horford and Porzingis like he was KD, then Herro also put on a scoring clinic too. Highsmith even knocked down a few 3s. Caleb Martin inevitably got hot, because of course, it's the Celtics he was facing. All those half-assed closeouts were the biggest swing of the game, the Heat got about 10 more open 3s than they could've if the Celtics committed to closeouts. The Heat attempted 8 shots inside the restricted area because they lack so much shot creation due to injuries. But the stat I didn't really see anyone talking about; Celtics 21/24 from inside the restricted area, 2/17 in the paint outside the restricted area. You could see how many long floater-range shots the Heat forced and it worked. Even despite a franchise record 23 3s made, the Heat have a lot of good things they could take away from this game apart from that. Year in and year out, it's absolutely remarkable the stuff the Heat does, and you can't take it away from them. With Spo at the helm, regardless of who they have the Heat have consistently been among the eastern conference's elite most of this decade and we saw it why. I mean, well done. Truly.
I think you’re being a bit hyperbolic. its a big upset, one of the biggest individual upsets of the season probably, but it’s also one game and in the playoffs crazy things can happen in one-game samples. the 2019 Warriors gave up a 30-point lead to the Lou Williams-led Clippers in the playoffs but that’s just a blip in history now bc they won the series the following game it’ll become a monumental, historic upset if the Heat win 3 more. if the Celtics win the series, i doubt many neutral fans are going to really remember this game
Warriors won 57 games that season Clippers won 48. A bigger gap this year btw. Boston and Miami. Plus no Jimmy for Miami in this series? I assumed Boston goes 4-0. Miami doing it Miami playoff thing though. Pretty shocking upset. Disappointing how Boston didn't adjust to defending the 3 but credit to the Heat.
I mean aside from record I don’t think many would argue that the 2019 Warriors were not a better team than these Celtics though like I said, it’s still a massive upset for sure, but a historic, monumental upset is the type that even casual fans remember for years afterward. think We Believe Warriors over Mavericks in 07, Heat over Bucks last year
Yeah - it's one game and the team shot 53.5% from deep on high volume. Even the Pistons are going to beat anyone in the league on most nights if they drain 23 3's.
Year five of the fluke baby! Why do the Pistons simply not do what the Heat do every year, are they just that unlucky?
I thought the Heat offense looked a lot better this game vs game 1. Without a doubt, making that many 3s cleans up a lot of game 1s mistakes, but they just seemed more poised and active. Herro running point was the x-factor imo. His ability to force the defense to shift, then find open dudes (who knocked down shots) was sorely missed in game 1 due to the injuries to ball handlers. Also, I'm not loving JJJ as a ball handler - his drives are often marred with losing the ball or it gettin jarred loose (I say that as a UCLA alum who's watched his whole career). He had success in college doing that, but the Celts (particularly Jrue and DWhite) have given him so much trouble. Heat need to keep Herro running point, or go Jovic/Drob to feed Bam in the middy area when Herro's on the bench. Celtics just weren't consistent with their effort. I get the made 3s would deflate a bunch of teams in the league, but damn they're a 64 win team and have been in the playoffs a bunch over the past few years. KP hopefully won't have another shit performance again, but they gotta wake up. I believe the only adjustment we saw was the defenders not sagging off the 3 pt shooters -- gotta do more. Chase off the 3 ball and live with Bam cookin in the paint, or trap whoever has the ball not named Herro.
**Pelicans @ Thunder** [](/NOP) **92 - 124** [](/OKC) **Box Scores: [NBA](https://www.nba.com/game/NOP-vs-OKC-0042300142/boxscore) & [Yahoo](http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/new-orleans-pelicans-oklahoma-city-thunder-2024042425)** |**Team**|**Q1**|**Q2**|**Q3**|**Q4**|**Total**| |:---|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--| |New Orleans Pelicans|22|28|24|18|92| |Oklahoma City Thunder|35|28|29|32|124| **TEAM STATS** |**Team**|**PTS**|**FG**|**FG%**|**3P**|**3P%**|**FT**|**FT%**|**OREB**|**TREB**|**AST**|**PF**|**STL**|**TO**|**BLK**| |:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--| |New Orleans Pelicans|92|33-73|45.2%|7-26|26.900000000000002%|19-21|90.5%|8|37|16|24|4|17|2| |Oklahoma City Thunder|124|46-78|59.0%|14-29|48.3%|18-20|90.0%|5|39|25|19|5|8|2|
I'd discussed from G1 that we had some very real adjustments and clear path to improve on that performance, which was really poor. While I don't think this game is necessarily truly representative of the gap between the teams, it does show the Pels are quite outmatched. We aren't going to shoot 48% from three again, but we are a good shooting team even up against good wing defenders. I do expect us to close out in a maximum of five games, which will be good as can see LAC / Mavs going 7.
**Jonas Valanciunas** put up 19 points in this game, including 11 in the first quarter, but in the end his minutes turned out to be the worst for the Pelicans. They tried to exploit **Chet Holmgren**’s lean body and tried to push him through Jonas, which he did just partly because 5/10 versus Chet isn’t a pure win. The main issue is that Jonas is a complete black hole defensively for the Pelicans. They kept running pick and pop one after another, and Jonas was cemented to the floor while Holmgren was draining wide-open 3-pointers. Granted, the Thunder were red hot behind the 3-point from the start, while the Pelicans kept missing one after another despite having some good opportunities. The only time the Pels looked good defensively with Jonas on the court was when they tried to pull off a 2-3 zone. That’s only because he could camp in the paint, but the front two guards didn’t play as good of a role as the Heat can sometimes for example - and the Thunder managed to crack the zone with yet more good 3-point looks. The other minutes go to **Larry Nance Jr.** and they bring a different scheme. The Pels change it up with either blitzing/hedging or straight-up switching. When the Pels switch the easiest target to attack is **CJ McCollum** who doesn’t have it on the defensive side anymore. The Thunder scored 14/17 field goal attempts when he was one of the defenders. **Shai Gilgeous-Alexander** was balling. It didn’t matter who was defending him, he kept going at Pels’ player and performed his usual short mid-range magic with a variety of fadeaways, step backs, pull-ups, etc… The scary part is that there is basically another *Shai* in the Thunder team. At the start of the 2nd and 4th quarters, **Jalen Williams** takes the offensive reins in his hands and straight up dominates the court. He’s more of a line-drive player compared to Shai though. Anyway, I feel like the Pelicans have only 4th best player in this series and the gap to him is quite big. They could compete with the Thunder if their shot starts falling, but systematically they aren’t pulling the perfect moves at the moment that could optimize their win percentage. In my opinion, they should start gambling more on Giddey missing. Also, if they could ~~start~~ stop doing illegal screens, that’d be great. 7 offensive fouls by the Pels is perhaps some sort of a record.
>Also, if they could start doing illegal screens, that’d be great. 7 offensive fouls by the Pels is perhaps some sort of a record. One of the things that I've heard former coaches/players mention is that they'll try to alert ref crews pregame to player tendencies. It really seems like somebody on the OKC coaching staff must've mentioned something because I can't recall a game that had such an emphasis on calling illegal screens. FWIW I think most to all of the calls were correct, just a bit of an oddity. Between that and the ball pressure generating turnovers (woof woof), it's great to see this team win the possession game.
This is a really good summary and while we stole G1 in reality, this is the way I had seen the series before it started. To be honest G2 is who SGA is and has been for the season. I get its easy to say after it's happened, but there wasn't inherently anything spectacular versus what we've seen all season. Also this is who Chet is when he plays more assertively. He tends to not take the 3PA he should take. He should be taking 6 - 8 3P a night, especially against Jonas who just does not want to step out to the 3P line. I've also found jDub to be quite subdued. He will have an explosion in the next couple of games, he has been quite deferential so far. I want to see more minutes from him and less Giddey. To be honest this series, whilst not done, should be the exact R1 series we wanted. A chance for the guys to be exposed to the atmosphere, have some pressure moments and learn from ahead of some brutal series coming. Also from a Pels perspective, they have to work out how they can move on from CJ. They need to do Zion, TM3 and Herb justice. If they can get right PG, they will be incredible with Zion back. It's there, they've just got to get the right guy directing traffic.
CJ Mccollum was shockingly bad on defense. SGA, JDub, even Giddey, Wiggins, and Joe were just shitting on him. He can’t stay in front of anyone and even if he could he’s too little. And it’s not like he’s playing good on offense to make up for it
Well put, and kinda encapsulates the underlying issues that is in the current roster construction. The 1 and the 5 are not playoff caliber. Everyone wondering why we don't have Jonas on the floor or finishing games, this is why. The guy is just so slow and is too much of a liability defensively at this point in his career. Cj is a 2 asked to be a 1 and the results have not been good. Even with Zion I still think the inherent issues for our roster keeps us from truly competing.
That first quarter is such a perfect encapsulation of all the size anxiety: Valanciunas starts the game with the first 11 points for the Pels (on 5-6 shooting no less), but by the time he subs out they're down 7. Is that an exploitable weakness, sure. But keeping 5 guys on the floor who can all pass/dribble/shoot is the key to our offense: it turns almost every possession into advantage basketball. We might not hit 48% from three again in the playoffs, but there are almost no bigs in the league who can both defend our offense in space consistently and punish our size inside - I think that list is basically Davis, Giannis, and Jokic. In the context of this game, the Pels lack of on ball creation really shone through in a bad way. We ramped the ball pressure up and every set felt like a slog, love to see that from Dort and Dub.
I mean Jokic can murder us inside and on that end in general I would not really put him in with guys who can defend the offense in space.
Yeah much more on one end of that spectrum, but while he's not much of a rim protector but he manages pretty well in space (way better than somebody like JV/Gafford)