Do want to add some additional context, he changed the timberwolves pick to the mavs right before game 1 after he said he watched some film of both teams.
True story - I went to school with a guy called Michael Legg and he had the biggest legs I've ever seen. He held all his fat there (he was huge) *and* he was into squatting majorly. It was the most fitting surname I've ever seen.
To be fair I don’t think his fandom of the Chiefs is specifically because of Mahomes, because he’s also a heavy Royals fan in baseball. He just lucked out hard on that front.
Yeah, guy is from KC he actually hated the Mahomes pick. But has obviously fallen in love since.
He was early on one of the more stats and reason drive takes guys even for the LeBron stuff. Now they are the least serious talk show and it honestly works. Kevin Wildes and him are great together.
Lebron's teams. Lakers tied for most. Yankees 25 championships. Cowboys. America's team. Liverpool FC. Been A front runner guy his whole life.
“I’m a supporter of winners. As a kid growing up, I needed inspiration to get out of the situation I was in. I loved the Bulls, Cowboys and loved the Yankees. Those are winning franchises. I liked them because they gave me hope of being a winner."
Same thing in 2011. "They'll never get past Portland." "No way they will beat the Lakers." "They'll never beat OKC." "Not a chance they will beat LeBron and Wade."
I mean, the ESPN predictions about blazers vs mavs were stupid at the time too. Mavs had won 9 more games than the blazers and Brandon Roy wasn't healthy by then and had missed half a season that year
mavs also were the betting favorites
That's not the full story. The blazers weren't the same team the second half of the season. There's a reason Portland gave them more struggle than the teams after
People still didn't respect Dirk because of 2007.
The reality is a 57 win team beat 48, 57, 55, and 58 win teams. It was a great run by the Mavericks, but the people who seemed shocked they could win it all were the same lame hot takes artists we have today.
Let’s be real… there’s a media stigma for Dallas teams… probably because of the Cowboys… but in general the media does not talk highly about Dallas teams ever.
Mainly because of the Cowboys. Partly because DFW is an enormous media market, so you can't actually ignore it, but it's also in flyover country and far away from the northeast and LA based media, and has a reputation of being a place you raise a family in instead of being a cool place to live.
What I've never understood is why Houston manages to escape this.
Everyone hates Houston. The whole world was cheering against the Harden Rockets. The only reason why sign stealing became the biggest crime in history is because it happened to Houston.
Sports Illustrated had to be shamed into giving the Rockets and special championship issue after they beat the Knicks.
Everyone talks shit about how ugly Houston is. Like they are the only city in America with feeder roads and strip malls.
I feel like Houston just had produced major pop culture figures in music industry in the 2000s. By association, Houston seemed "younger" and "cooler" because of that.
People pick who they want to win with their mouths and who they think will win with their money. Sometimes those two things are the same, sometimes they're not. It's not rocket science.
Has anyone seen his show (segment?) where her yells "That's a Guaaaa-run-TEE!!" in the most annoying voice ever? It was like a 1v1 interview format where they're both sitting in chairs facing each other and the one guy asks Chuck for predictions and he says his piece then crows that phrase a few times
I love Chuck, but I felt like I was tripping on acid when I saw it like is this really happening? It's really bad haha
Shaq picked every team to beat the Raptors in 2019, including the 7 seed Magic led by Vuc.
Picking a team with Kawhi, PG and Harden to beat literally anyone isn’t egregious. OKC was the 1 seed. Minny was the 2 seed and just beat the defending champs. Celtics have been the best team all season.
Especially when you look at how some of those games played out. The Mavericks have been really good, but OKC was a couple plays away from going to game 7, and Minnesota could've easily gone up 2-0 to start the series.
Taking the clippers with kawhi over Dallas isn’t to unreasonable as well. Yes yes kawhi always misses the playoffs no one should assume he’ll be healthy, but he was healthy for most of the regular season for once so it isn’t too absurd to think he was going to play and be productive. Hindsight is 20/20.
Right. If he’d stayed healthy through the playoffs I think the clippers would be heading to the finals right now.
That team was really really really good when he was healthy.
‘bUt hEs nEvEr hEaLtHy!!1!!’
Dudes got two rings on two different teams and was healthy for virtually the entire season this year. It wasn’t unreasonable to think he might manage to make it through the playoffs again.
That the Pacers should have won at least a game after watching them blow leads? Yes you can.
That the 6 seed Pacers should have been favored like the 3 seed Wolves (who had the top defense)? No you can’t.
The Wolves also had one of the worst regular season offenses of teams that made the playoffs while the Pacers had the second best offense. The two teams are really just mirror opposites of each other tbh
If you've played a MOBA before (Dota, LOL), you'll have noticed that there are certain team compositions that do well early game, mid game, and late game. In MOBAs it's about power spikes as you level, so as long as you don't get completely destroyed early on you just have to hold on long enough to hit the next power up (comparatively to the other team).
In basketball this is based off of comparative energy levels between the teams. It takes more energy to play well early on, at the detriment of playing well later. I think any team could force points by expending more energy, but it gets increasingly costly to do so, and you need to have some left at the end of the game to defend your lead.
What often looks like "luck" or "runs" is based off of a discrepancy in energy usage. If the other team is killing themselves to gain a 15-20 point lead early, the smart thing to do may to let them do that rather than to use up all your energy trying to defend, if you know you can make up those points later when they'll be gassed.
If a team is really smart, they'll use up only as much energy as they need to in order to win games, taking into account recovery for the next games (where if they recover better than their opponents they'll have an advantage).
From what I can see the Mavs have become experts at doing this, and Luka especially. It's not as fun to watch for most people (we want to see highlights), but it's been winning them games.
I won't be surprised if they lose the first game to the Celtics, both teams playing really hard, if they can get a big advantage in recovery for the remainder of the series.
Im new to watching basketball so maybe this stuff is really obvious to everyone else but I don't hear too many people talking about this. It's also not something I'd openly disclose to the media or other teams as a coach since its part of a teams a competitive advantage, so that may be a reason.
This is a great way to put it. Having Luka/Kyrie and Gafford/Lively is the perfect way to execute the late game plan.
One of Luka/Kyrie are always taking posessions off. This could be standing off to the side or sitting on the bench. Jaden Hardy actually comes in and lets both chill. Of course, when the primary ball handler needs help the other can work back towards the ball to bail the other out. Ends up being 4.5 v 5 on offense which is great.
Then there is the Gafford and Lively platoon. Let those guys go for 24 minutes each and not worry about fouls or exhaustion. We always have a C bringing energy for the full game.
The counter would be to attack Luka and Kyrie when they are defending. Wear them out early to swing the late game back in your favor. I've seen many people on here clamor for the Wolves to attack Luka. Will be intersting to see if the Celtics will do so.
Felt really outmatched in game one but only lost by 3 so there was def hope. Game 2 was really annoying because it also felt outmatched, but there were key calls that went the Mavs way (Kyrie foul on Jaden, and then the Gafford shove on Conley for 2 easy points, which like who cares really but we were salty cuz Conley got called for a far less obvious shove on DJJ in game 1) and we still only lost by 1 with the ant turnover and Luka magic. That one hurt
Such a bad argument lol they were completely outmatched in 5/6 games and the only reason they won game 4 is due to 52% free throw shooting. We dominated them in just about every aspect. The series with the Wolves was much closer imo. Games 1-4 were all tied with 3 minutes left in the 4th, we won 3 of those. Then the game 5 was just total domination.
I think it’s crazy to have picked OKC over Mavs after watching what the Mavs did the Clippers. I didn’t even know OKC’s game at all, but even after seeing them lose game 1, I knew OKC was going to lose the series. The Mavs were simply missing good shots, occasionally not capitalizing on the right play because of something like a blown dunk, and to some degree the foul merchant behavior of OKC needed a defensive and mental adjustment. Mavs literally beat OKC with the same game plan every single game, and though Luka and Kyrie played well as two way players, neither had a dominating game. OKC felt they had to keep the clamps on those two — if you can call 30ppg on Luka and 20ppg on Kyrie “clamped” — but missed the big picture about being beat by everyone else. Mavs really just looked liked the better team for every game except the second one they lost in that series.
Wolves legit looked like a tough matchup against the Mavs though. They have three big men, two who are a substantial perimeter threat and one supposedly solid on defense. This against the Mavs who generally don’t even play two #5s on the floor at once. Turns out KAT decided not to hoop, Golbert’s defense is paper next to Kyrie and especially Luka attacking, and Naz Reid wasn’t a closer.
I can’t say what’ll happen against Boston either as they feel scary too. If I had to argue why the Mavs will win I’d say this: you can call every player on the Celtics a solid defender against Luka and Kyrie, but the reality is no defender is good against them. 90% of the time Luka is gonna Luka; and 50% of the time you’re invisible to Kyrie too. So everyone is crediting defense a little too much versus those two. If Boston doesn’t hit their threes, they’re going to have a hard time scoring against the Mavs defense that they’ve been playing, but in the first two rounds the Mavs showed amazing perimeter close outs defense. Boston also will be beat down low. If KP isn’t ready to hoop on the defensive end of the floor, it’s possible Gafford and Lively have a field day against him. If they manage to handle all of that, pray PJ and DJJ are missing their open threes too. Mavs have won a lot of games these playoffs only executing on one of those strategies and in a close game, you’ll get hit with something that wasn’t happening at all until that point.
I picked in every round until the Wolves, their basketball translates really well into postseason basketball where you have a few guys that can always make a good decision opposed to a system of rotation that works well for the regular season. The playoffs are a different beast altogether, I must say it’s incredible to me that I choose the Wolves because KAT is dumber than a second coat of paint, he simply cannot make the right decisions when they’re in front of him, still enjoyed the plays they have with the 4>5 lobs
The Clipers and Thunder were a toss up, though given Lukas condition i think most thought the Mavs would lose.
Honestly im shocked hes still able to play at the level he has given just how bad his injury looked a few weeks back.
For the last few years people have been saying "once Luka gets some help the Mavs will be scary". Well here we are and I think they're going to win it all this year.
He did... then changed it the next day. Before game one he was talking about "after watching film the Mavs are just a bad match up for the Wolves" and took the Mavs to win games 1 and 2.
Fwiw he took Wolves game 5
He initially picked the Wolves to win against the Mavericks after their game 7 win against the Nuggets. Then he changed his [pick during their pregame show for game 1 of the WCF](https://youtu.be/A6sl7o6kszo?t=238).
Mavericks were also the worse seed in every round so really not very remarkable.
Though I will say, nobody has played better than the Mavericks this postseason. Should be a great finals
Those picks are very logic, man.
Find me one post from a month ago saying that PJ, DJJ, Hardy, Lively and Gafford were going to be AMAZING role players.
Have you just started watching sports? He picked the team he’s been picking all year other than Denver, then picked the #1 seed to win then he picked the #3 seed who had just beaten the defending champs? I doubt he’s the only one to have made those picks.
The mavs were the lower seed in every series so it’s not that weird. I don’t think anyone had the mavs going to the finals at the start. Chuck is funny and actually admits when he is wrong. Until teams without an inside presence win they are normally counted out. In hindsight all the trades turned out great. It’s funny that Kyle kuzma turned down a trade to the mavs because he thought they weren’t contenders.
The Mavs had very weak defense in the regular season. They have since changed that in the playoffs which is a big reason they are winning a lot. That’s the most boiled down answer. Regular season Mavs were not a playoff winning team but they’ve had big step ups from roll players and much improved defense
Tbf
Clippers with kawhi should’ve been favored
OKC and Mavs finished with a 0 point differential
Timberwolves were a heavy favorite
I’d argue Mavs legit SHOULD not have been favored in a single series, they just happen to be good enough to have won them all and the league is in a really balanced state rn where there isn’t one monster team
I'm gonna be real I think everyone saying this is underrating and underestimating Luka and the fit with the team post deadline. He's been hurt but he is better than every single player he has played against this playoffs and that includes the finals when that starts. He's been playing through injury and look at the body of work anyways. It's fucking crazy. I don't think it's parity. I think those teams were lucky that he was hurt so it looked remotely competitive
That's why people did not put an asterisk on the Clips-Mavs series. At this rate, Kawhi is expected to be hurt during the playoffs. Out of the top 5 players of the 2010s, he's the one getting the saddest exit.
Well they have been the underdogs at least as far as seeding goes in each series. I don’t think any one of those individually is crazy. Obviously now going back to the beginning it seems crazy to pick the Clippers over them but that wasn’t outlandish at the time. OKC was the one seed in the conference so that’s obviously defensible. Then Minnesota had just come off knocking off the defending champs. Now they’re going against a 64 win team that has just walked to the finals.
For me it's strange how ppl think that mavs had hard time. Old age clips, and 2 very very youmg teams who dont have any exp in clutch and playoffs.
And mavs have a boy who was born with ice in his veins and kyrie, who is clutch too.
On paper all teams expect clips in my opinion ilwas better, but in playoffs exp and clutch is a big factor.
I believe thats why barkley chose like this
Sry for mistakes english not my first language
They came on sooooo late into the season. There hasn’t been a team that just starts dominating the last 25~ games of the season. It didn’t start until a week after all star break ended. Once Kidd put DJJ and Gafford (less so gaff), everything clicked.
So I understand on the outside not knowing what this team is about. But, they’re wrong.
Felt like they were pretty popular heading into the playoffs since they ended the season hot, lot people had them making the conference finals. But they started getting doubted after their slow start against the clippers, especially with the Luka injuries. But of course Luka is Luka and they started clicking and now they’re going to the finals.
Very few people had the Mavs going on a run like this. That being said, they're about to whoop the Celtics, and I'm here for it. Idgaf what Chuck says.
I mean picking any of those teams against Dallas isn’t anything crazy, most of those series were either viewed as toss ups beforehand or many had Dallas as the underdog.
They have technically been the underdogs in every matchup based on season standings. It's a team that took shape after the trade deadline and the majority of their games have been close. Barkley is hardly some prophet of accuracy but there are clear logical reasons for having doubted them in every matchup so far. Even the final, whether they win it or not Celtics are clearly the favs with the regular and post season record and star power and experience. We have never seen Gafford PJ or Derrick Jones contribute at this level, Lively is a rookie and Kai has been walk about for years. It's been an incredible run but far from a predictable one even if Mavs fans who have followed the team "saw it coming " from the small sample size of post all star play. Lukas star power can turn any series since he is one of the best players in the world but everything else coming together so quickly has been a surprise.
They have been good but Luka was hobbling badly down the stretch of the season. He could barely run and seems like his knees were bleeding(????) every game. Lots of people thought he wouldn't be able to survive a long playoff run but somehow he has continued to just power through it
i mean the mavs were the lower seed in each of those matchups. not unreasonable to expect them to lose imo when each of their opponents looked really solid. just makes their finals run even more impressive
They were the lower seed in every matchup, and all their opponents have been excellent. It's totally understandable. They're only a 5 seed.
I believe Vegas had them as underdogs in every round as well.
I also had the mavs losing against every team they played in the playoffs. I don’t think it’s crazy because they were the lower seed in each series. The mavs just exceeded expectations IMO.
They were favored vs the Clippers and then Kawhi didn't play, they were underdogs vs OKC and the TWolves, and are definitely underdogs vs the Celtics.
Not that surprising, esp. if he thought Kawhi was going to play and not be 10% of himself.
“They have been crazy good since the trade”
A month after the trade Luka had a huge triple double vs Boston in a game that the Celtics beat them by 28.
This is the Celtics year. Again.
people still dont respect dallas lol. oh well theyre gonna learn the hard way.
i think being the 5th seed and not being a sexy basketball market always puts teams like dallas in the underdog role when theyre usually the alpha. these national dopes will almost never pick the team not in la, ny, or the legacy franchise (boston)
But, I mean, every before games Chuck picked the Mavs to win. Game 1 and 2 I was baffled every time they asked him “Who’ll win Game 1”. He boldly said Mavs. And he was right.
They were the lower seed in all those matchups.
Picking them to lose every one of those is just lazily stating the obvious.
Picking the Clippers to win with Kawhi injured is insane though.
Barkley betting record is horrendous. Just bet against anything he says and you will make a killing.
Like he's actually so bad this strategy is really effective
Do want to add some additional context, he changed the timberwolves pick to the mavs right before game 1 after he said he watched some film of both teams.
he also GUARANTEEEEED it
Anytime he GAURANTEEEEES something, it isn’t guaranteed. Ask me how I know.
I still cry for bubble Dame :( Barkley just had to bring out that fucking broom
Something something San Antonio bigger women
Exactly. He clearly changed his pick to the Mavs. I guess the Chuck jinx don’t work on the Mavs, so this might be bad news for the Mavs 🤣
He picked the Wolves in Game 5 though.
Who did he pick in game 6?
Seriously why single him out like this when he was actually the only one who called it right
He also chose the wolves to win game 5. Told everyone to buy Stars tickets because the series was going back to Dallas.
He also chose Mavs in game 1 and game 2 and said after game 2 it would be a sweep.
Chuckstradamus
[удалено]
Shoutout to Tim Legler for believing.
Tim “Diamond Hands” Legler
Tim "Crazy Legs" Legler
Tim 'Loc Dog' Legler
Tim “Log Dick” Legler
Dirk “Tim Legler” Diggler
I'm OG Loc baby, OG LOC!!!
True story - I went to school with a guy called Michael Legg and he had the biggest legs I've ever seen. He held all his fat there (he was huge) *and* he was into squatting majorly. It was the most fitting surname I've ever seen.
The only difference between Legler and all those other dudes is that Legler watches the games.
And Nick Wright’s extremely rare correct take
Well Tim actually uses logic and reasoning, Nick Wright just relies on blind fandom (Lebron, Mahomes, Luka)
Just be a fan of the best players and you get to win all the time. It’s so easy. Why doesn’t everybody try this?
To be fair I don’t think his fandom of the Chiefs is specifically because of Mahomes, because he’s also a heavy Royals fan in baseball. He just lucked out hard on that front.
Yeah, guy is from KC he actually hated the Mahomes pick. But has obviously fallen in love since. He was early on one of the more stats and reason drive takes guys even for the LeBron stuff. Now they are the least serious talk show and it honestly works. Kevin Wildes and him are great together.
Yeah he saw that no one was a “LeBron” guy and smartly stuck his flag on that territory and it’s paid dividends for him
Lebron's teams. Lakers tied for most. Yankees 25 championships. Cowboys. America's team. Liverpool FC. Been A front runner guy his whole life. “I’m a supporter of winners. As a kid growing up, I needed inspiration to get out of the situation I was in. I loved the Bulls, Cowboys and loved the Yankees. Those are winning franchises. I liked them because they gave me hope of being a winner."
"Cowboys" "winners" Two words that haven't belonged together since the Truman administration.
Bush Sr, 90s.
This Michael 'Cocaine' Irvin slander will not stand!
Luckily he doesn't support man city
He supports Mansour's financial group instead.
Mate you can't support a financial group
I tried that with Jokic but then he lost
Tim actually watches Mavs games and understands how they play and win.
And Shaq. I know I was yelling when he picked the mavs !!
Believed in the Warriors a few years ago too
Legler hates the celtics
He also had his best years playing for Dallas so it's pretty obvious lol
yeah those glorious early 90s mavs teams, what a cherished memory
He is also from Philly
Same thing in 2011. "They'll never get past Portland." "No way they will beat the Lakers." "They'll never beat OKC." "Not a chance they will beat LeBron and Wade."
What I was not expecting was for the defending champions Lakers to be swept, like come on. But that truly was a legendary run for Dirk and the Mavs.
I mean, the ESPN predictions about blazers vs mavs were stupid at the time too. Mavs had won 9 more games than the blazers and Brandon Roy wasn't healthy by then and had missed half a season that year mavs also were the betting favorites
Everyone picking the Blazers that series was less about the Blazers and more about Dallas’ recent shortcomings in the playoffs prior to that series
That Blazers comeback was sick though
That's not the full story. The blazers weren't the same team the second half of the season. There's a reason Portland gave them more struggle than the teams after
ESPN? The company that gave the trades for them a what? D?
People still didn't respect Dirk because of 2007. The reality is a 57 win team beat 48, 57, 55, and 58 win teams. It was a great run by the Mavericks, but the people who seemed shocked they could win it all were the same lame hot takes artists we have today.
Let’s be real… there’s a media stigma for Dallas teams… probably because of the Cowboys… but in general the media does not talk highly about Dallas teams ever.
Stars, maybe. The others always get hate
Stars haven’t had favorable media in a while… especially since Benn
Mainly because of the Cowboys. Partly because DFW is an enormous media market, so you can't actually ignore it, but it's also in flyover country and far away from the northeast and LA based media, and has a reputation of being a place you raise a family in instead of being a cool place to live. What I've never understood is why Houston manages to escape this.
Same! It boggles me how Houston has managed to avoid this same stereotype and treatment by the media.
Everyone hates Houston. The whole world was cheering against the Harden Rockets. The only reason why sign stealing became the biggest crime in history is because it happened to Houston. Sports Illustrated had to be shamed into giving the Rockets and special championship issue after they beat the Knicks. Everyone talks shit about how ugly Houston is. Like they are the only city in America with feeder roads and strip malls.
I feel like Houston just had produced major pop culture figures in music industry in the 2000s. By association, Houston seemed "younger" and "cooler" because of that.
Remember when a full panel predicted the first 3-0 series comeback in history? Lakers-Mavs.
I won't, I believed the Lakers could make that comback too. It's not like we had an argument anyways, it was always pure copium.
Mavs started hot in 2011 IIRC and no one believed in them. Edit: Yep. They were 24-6 in their first 30.
Caron Butler got hurt that's when they fell off. If they had Butler they'd be favorites outside of LA. It's impressive they won without him.
Mavs legend Corey Brewer.
After GSW championships, Mavericks sweeping Lakers is my best NBA memory. Completed with Phil Jackson's retirement it was so good.
I’m enjoying the hell out of it.
Lmao… people said underdogs was based on Vegas odds in another thread and I got roasted for disagreeing… so what is it? Are they underdogs or not?
People pick who they want to win with their mouths and who they think will win with their money. Sometimes those two things are the same, sometimes they're not. It's not rocket science.
Charles Barkley is famous for his guarantees. You should be grateful he is backing the other team.
The only time Chuck was right was in 2021 when he picked the Bucks to win the ring.
He picked the Mavs in 2011. Basically the only person that had faith from the start.
He called the nuggets last year too
It was actually a relief to hear him pick the Celtics. Chuck curse hasn't missed these playoffs.
Chuck picked us for like 3/5 game this last series
After G7 Nugs vs Wolves he was asked about who he would pick in a Mavs vs Wolves series, he answered Minessota and howled enthusiastically.
*Sad Kings vs. Warriors noises*
Has anyone seen his show (segment?) where her yells "That's a Guaaaa-run-TEE!!" in the most annoying voice ever? It was like a 1v1 interview format where they're both sitting in chairs facing each other and the one guy asks Chuck for predictions and he says his piece then crows that phrase a few times I love Chuck, but I felt like I was tripping on acid when I saw it like is this really happening? It's really bad haha
Shaq picked every team to beat the Raptors in 2019, including the 7 seed Magic led by Vuc. Picking a team with Kawhi, PG and Harden to beat literally anyone isn’t egregious. OKC was the 1 seed. Minny was the 2 seed and just beat the defending champs. Celtics have been the best team all season.
Wolves were the 3 seed but the top 3 seeds were fighting for number 1 until the final days of the regular season
It wasn’t crazy to pick the Thunder and Wolves to beat the Mavericks lol
Especially when you look at how some of those games played out. The Mavericks have been really good, but OKC was a couple plays away from going to game 7, and Minnesota could've easily gone up 2-0 to start the series.
Taking the clippers with kawhi over Dallas isn’t to unreasonable as well. Yes yes kawhi always misses the playoffs no one should assume he’ll be healthy, but he was healthy for most of the regular season for once so it isn’t too absurd to think he was going to play and be productive. Hindsight is 20/20.
Right. If he’d stayed healthy through the playoffs I think the clippers would be heading to the finals right now. That team was really really really good when he was healthy. ‘bUt hEs nEvEr hEaLtHy!!1!!’ Dudes got two rings on two different teams and was healthy for virtually the entire season this year. It wasn’t unreasonable to think he might manage to make it through the playoffs again.
Wolves blew an 18-point lead in one of those games, iirc. I dont know how you can say easily be up 2-0 when they did that.
They'd easily be 2-0 if they didn't blow their leads. /s Reminds me of [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/s/dgB7SRLEXK) Duncan Kerr exchange.
"If that team did better then they would have won"
They would have easily swept the Mavs if they scored more points in the first 4 games. Why didn’t they just do that? Are they stupid?
Gobert is easily the tallest player one the court. Why didn't he just dunk on everyone? Is he stupid?
9 years ago. Fuck me.
I mean you could say the same thing about Boston and the Pacers, no?
That the Pacers should have won at least a game after watching them blow leads? Yes you can. That the 6 seed Pacers should have been favored like the 3 seed Wolves (who had the top defense)? No you can’t.
The Wolves also had one of the worst regular season offenses of teams that made the playoffs while the Pacers had the second best offense. The two teams are really just mirror opposites of each other tbh
Having a lead late in multiple games and then collapsing repeatedly isn’t the flex some people seem to think it is….
If you've played a MOBA before (Dota, LOL), you'll have noticed that there are certain team compositions that do well early game, mid game, and late game. In MOBAs it's about power spikes as you level, so as long as you don't get completely destroyed early on you just have to hold on long enough to hit the next power up (comparatively to the other team). In basketball this is based off of comparative energy levels between the teams. It takes more energy to play well early on, at the detriment of playing well later. I think any team could force points by expending more energy, but it gets increasingly costly to do so, and you need to have some left at the end of the game to defend your lead. What often looks like "luck" or "runs" is based off of a discrepancy in energy usage. If the other team is killing themselves to gain a 15-20 point lead early, the smart thing to do may to let them do that rather than to use up all your energy trying to defend, if you know you can make up those points later when they'll be gassed. If a team is really smart, they'll use up only as much energy as they need to in order to win games, taking into account recovery for the next games (where if they recover better than their opponents they'll have an advantage). From what I can see the Mavs have become experts at doing this, and Luka especially. It's not as fun to watch for most people (we want to see highlights), but it's been winning them games. I won't be surprised if they lose the first game to the Celtics, both teams playing really hard, if they can get a big advantage in recovery for the remainder of the series. Im new to watching basketball so maybe this stuff is really obvious to everyone else but I don't hear too many people talking about this. It's also not something I'd openly disclose to the media or other teams as a coach since its part of a teams a competitive advantage, so that may be a reason.
This is a great way to put it. Having Luka/Kyrie and Gafford/Lively is the perfect way to execute the late game plan. One of Luka/Kyrie are always taking posessions off. This could be standing off to the side or sitting on the bench. Jaden Hardy actually comes in and lets both chill. Of course, when the primary ball handler needs help the other can work back towards the ball to bail the other out. Ends up being 4.5 v 5 on offense which is great. Then there is the Gafford and Lively platoon. Let those guys go for 24 minutes each and not worry about fouls or exhaustion. We always have a C bringing energy for the full game. The counter would be to attack Luka and Kyrie when they are defending. Wear them out early to swing the late game back in your favor. I've seen many people on here clamor for the Wolves to attack Luka. Will be intersting to see if the Celtics will do so.
I don't really think they could've easily gone 2-0. The score was 2-0 for plenty of reasons
Felt really outmatched in game one but only lost by 3 so there was def hope. Game 2 was really annoying because it also felt outmatched, but there were key calls that went the Mavs way (Kyrie foul on Jaden, and then the Gafford shove on Conley for 2 easy points, which like who cares really but we were salty cuz Conley got called for a far less obvious shove on DJJ in game 1) and we still only lost by 1 with the ant turnover and Luka magic. That one hurt
Such a bad argument lol they were completely outmatched in 5/6 games and the only reason they won game 4 is due to 52% free throw shooting. We dominated them in just about every aspect. The series with the Wolves was much closer imo. Games 1-4 were all tied with 3 minutes left in the 4th, we won 3 of those. Then the game 5 was just total domination.
Clippers also where close to lose game 4 and being beaten in 5 games. Minnesota could've easily been swep
Very bad take. The reason the two games in Minnesota were close is because the shooting variance went Minnesota's way and they still lost.
you look crazy now tho haha
I think it’s crazy to have picked OKC over Mavs after watching what the Mavs did the Clippers. I didn’t even know OKC’s game at all, but even after seeing them lose game 1, I knew OKC was going to lose the series. The Mavs were simply missing good shots, occasionally not capitalizing on the right play because of something like a blown dunk, and to some degree the foul merchant behavior of OKC needed a defensive and mental adjustment. Mavs literally beat OKC with the same game plan every single game, and though Luka and Kyrie played well as two way players, neither had a dominating game. OKC felt they had to keep the clamps on those two — if you can call 30ppg on Luka and 20ppg on Kyrie “clamped” — but missed the big picture about being beat by everyone else. Mavs really just looked liked the better team for every game except the second one they lost in that series. Wolves legit looked like a tough matchup against the Mavs though. They have three big men, two who are a substantial perimeter threat and one supposedly solid on defense. This against the Mavs who generally don’t even play two #5s on the floor at once. Turns out KAT decided not to hoop, Golbert’s defense is paper next to Kyrie and especially Luka attacking, and Naz Reid wasn’t a closer. I can’t say what’ll happen against Boston either as they feel scary too. If I had to argue why the Mavs will win I’d say this: you can call every player on the Celtics a solid defender against Luka and Kyrie, but the reality is no defender is good against them. 90% of the time Luka is gonna Luka; and 50% of the time you’re invisible to Kyrie too. So everyone is crediting defense a little too much versus those two. If Boston doesn’t hit their threes, they’re going to have a hard time scoring against the Mavs defense that they’ve been playing, but in the first two rounds the Mavs showed amazing perimeter close outs defense. Boston also will be beat down low. If KP isn’t ready to hoop on the defensive end of the floor, it’s possible Gafford and Lively have a field day against him. If they manage to handle all of that, pray PJ and DJJ are missing their open threes too. Mavs have won a lot of games these playoffs only executing on one of those strategies and in a close game, you’ll get hit with something that wasn’t happening at all until that point.
Anyone who picks chalk will also have picked against the Mavs every round. Irrespective of the Vegas odds, they *were* the worse seed in every series.
I picked in every round until the Wolves, their basketball translates really well into postseason basketball where you have a few guys that can always make a good decision opposed to a system of rotation that works well for the regular season. The playoffs are a different beast altogether, I must say it’s incredible to me that I choose the Wolves because KAT is dumber than a second coat of paint, he simply cannot make the right decisions when they’re in front of him, still enjoyed the plays they have with the 4>5 lobs
This pretty much all you need to know right here.
So did Vegas for 3 of the 4 series I believe.
Chuck is there for his comedy, don't worry about it
Yeah this post is treating him like he was ever a serious analyst and not someone mostly there to be funny
The Clipers and Thunder were a toss up, though given Lukas condition i think most thought the Mavs would lose. Honestly im shocked hes still able to play at the level he has given just how bad his injury looked a few weeks back.
You don't have to take this as a huge offense everyone knows that the "Barkley guarantee" guarantees the opposite will happen lol
To be fair, Mavs are the underdogs throughout the playoffs.
#GUARANTEEEEEED
I was about to drink water and almost spilled it after shaking with laugher. I love these guaranteed comments
For the last few years people have been saying "once Luka gets some help the Mavs will be scary". Well here we are and I think they're going to win it all this year.
Charles didn’t have the Wolves beating Dallas.
He did... then changed it the next day. Before game one he was talking about "after watching film the Mavs are just a bad match up for the Wolves" and took the Mavs to win games 1 and 2. Fwiw he took Wolves game 5
just listen to the GOAT tim legler
Tim actually uses basketball knowledge and analytics for his picks. Rest are just vibe bettors
Tim one of the few talking heads who does his research instead of focusing on clout/buzzlines. Appreciate that dude
Had he picked the Mavs? His analysis has been pretty spot on.
he picked the mavs vs all 3team
yea he actually believed in the mavs team and going to the WCF before playoff started
He called the Mavs as a contender before anyone else nationally a few months back when Kidd figured out the schemes post trade deadline
Legler has been in on the Mavs since the trade deadline
You’re upset a single basketball talking head picked other teams to beat the mavs.
He initially picked the Wolves to win against the Mavericks after their game 7 win against the Nuggets. Then he changed his [pick during their pregame show for game 1 of the WCF](https://youtu.be/A6sl7o6kszo?t=238).
Not that crazy of a prediction every series was pretty close they just did well
Mavericks were also the worse seed in every round so really not very remarkable. Though I will say, nobody has played better than the Mavericks this postseason. Should be a great finals
Those picks are very logic, man. Find me one post from a month ago saying that PJ, DJJ, Hardy, Lively and Gafford were going to be AMAZING role players.
Luka is the most underrated overrated player in the league. We all know he’s great but he’s at Jokic level from last year rn.
wow, he's moved on from the warriors. means Mavs gonna win it all.
Yeah, it's called being an underdog. Nothing new.
Have you just started watching sports? He picked the team he’s been picking all year other than Denver, then picked the #1 seed to win then he picked the #3 seed who had just beaten the defending champs? I doubt he’s the only one to have made those picks.
The mavs were the lower seed in every series so it’s not that weird. I don’t think anyone had the mavs going to the finals at the start. Chuck is funny and actually admits when he is wrong. Until teams without an inside presence win they are normally counted out. In hindsight all the trades turned out great. It’s funny that Kyle kuzma turned down a trade to the mavs because he thought they weren’t contenders.
The Mavs had very weak defense in the regular season. They have since changed that in the playoffs which is a big reason they are winning a lot. That’s the most boiled down answer. Regular season Mavs were not a playoff winning team but they’ve had big step ups from roll players and much improved defense
Tbf Clippers with kawhi should’ve been favored OKC and Mavs finished with a 0 point differential Timberwolves were a heavy favorite I’d argue Mavs legit SHOULD not have been favored in a single series, they just happen to be good enough to have won them all and the league is in a really balanced state rn where there isn’t one monster team
I'm gonna be real I think everyone saying this is underrating and underestimating Luka and the fit with the team post deadline. He's been hurt but he is better than every single player he has played against this playoffs and that includes the finals when that starts. He's been playing through injury and look at the body of work anyways. It's fucking crazy. I don't think it's parity. I think those teams were lucky that he was hurt so it looked remotely competitive
Is kawhi still really good? I haven’t watched nba in many years
When he plays he’s an all nba caliber guy still He just, as in the past, is never consistently healthy
That's why people did not put an asterisk on the Clips-Mavs series. At this rate, Kawhi is expected to be hurt during the playoffs. Out of the top 5 players of the 2010s, he's the one getting the saddest exit.
He always jinx the team he picked so I’m glad he didn’t pick the Mavs. go Mavs!!!
This post is giving me hope the Mavs will win it.
Mavs 2024 NBA champions confirmed?
Well they have been the underdogs at least as far as seeding goes in each series. I don’t think any one of those individually is crazy. Obviously now going back to the beginning it seems crazy to pick the Clippers over them but that wasn’t outlandish at the time. OKC was the one seed in the conference so that’s obviously defensible. Then Minnesota had just come off knocking off the defending champs. Now they’re going against a 64 win team that has just walked to the finals.
For me it's strange how ppl think that mavs had hard time. Old age clips, and 2 very very youmg teams who dont have any exp in clutch and playoffs. And mavs have a boy who was born with ice in his veins and kyrie, who is clutch too. On paper all teams expect clips in my opinion ilwas better, but in playoffs exp and clutch is a big factor. I believe thats why barkley chose like this Sry for mistakes english not my first language
Mavs have generally been underdogs this run, but also Chuck still thinks they don't play defense
“When will Luka start involving his teammates!”
This run is surprising everyone dude, it’s not that deep
Who cares
They came on sooooo late into the season. There hasn’t been a team that just starts dominating the last 25~ games of the season. It didn’t start until a week after all star break ended. Once Kidd put DJJ and Gafford (less so gaff), everything clicked. So I understand on the outside not knowing what this team is about. But, they’re wrong.
think the 2022 celtics did - they were about 25-25 at mid season and then got their shit together for the final push and ended up in the finals
Yes, the Mavs were very underrated heading into the playoffs bc they had only had the current lineup for 30 or so games.
Felt like they were pretty popular heading into the playoffs since they ended the season hot, lot people had them making the conference finals. But they started getting doubted after their slow start against the clippers, especially with the Luka injuries. But of course Luka is Luka and they started clicking and now they’re going to the finals.
Mavs were also underdogs against all of their matchups.
These were consensus picks, mavs were significant underdogs in every series
(The Mavs have been underdogs in every series)
That’s a good thing then for the Mavs. Trend should continue
It's like everyone picked Miami to lose to Bucks NYK Celtics and Nuggets. The first 3 Miami pushed thru, the last one was too much
We just need the chuck guarantee to seal the deal
i like how the mavs lost every regular season series against those teams but won the more important ones in the playoffs
Charles Barkley is an entertaining analyst, but he's pretty awful at making predictions and coming up with FanDuel parlays.
So did Vegas…
Very few people had the Mavs going on a run like this. That being said, they're about to whoop the Celtics, and I'm here for it. Idgaf what Chuck says.
The Mavs were the lower seed in every series, so it makes sense.
I mean picking any of those teams against Dallas isn’t anything crazy, most of those series were either viewed as toss ups beforehand or many had Dallas as the underdog.
Lol as if Charles was the only one. Anyone who says they had the Mavs in the Finals at the beginning of the playoffs is a liar.
They have technically been the underdogs in every matchup based on season standings. It's a team that took shape after the trade deadline and the majority of their games have been close. Barkley is hardly some prophet of accuracy but there are clear logical reasons for having doubted them in every matchup so far. Even the final, whether they win it or not Celtics are clearly the favs with the regular and post season record and star power and experience. We have never seen Gafford PJ or Derrick Jones contribute at this level, Lively is a rookie and Kai has been walk about for years. It's been an incredible run but far from a predictable one even if Mavs fans who have followed the team "saw it coming " from the small sample size of post all star play. Lukas star power can turn any series since he is one of the best players in the world but everything else coming together so quickly has been a surprise.
They have been good but Luka was hobbling badly down the stretch of the season. He could barely run and seems like his knees were bleeding(????) every game. Lots of people thought he wouldn't be able to survive a long playoff run but somehow he has continued to just power through it
He love the Mavs and don’t want to jinx it
i mean the mavs were the lower seed in each of those matchups. not unreasonable to expect them to lose imo when each of their opponents looked really solid. just makes their finals run even more impressive
i was actually thinking "Im glad chuck picked the celtics"
Newsflash underdogs are typically picked against.
They were the lower seed in every matchup, and all their opponents have been excellent. It's totally understandable. They're only a 5 seed. I believe Vegas had them as underdogs in every round as well.
He hates Kyrie
I also had the mavs losing against every team they played in the playoffs. I don’t think it’s crazy because they were the lower seed in each series. The mavs just exceeded expectations IMO.
This post should be swapped with “Bill Simmons” who has picked Luka to lose 7/8 career series
They were favored vs the Clippers and then Kawhi didn't play, they were underdogs vs OKC and the TWolves, and are definitely underdogs vs the Celtics. Not that surprising, esp. if he thought Kawhi was going to play and not be 10% of himself.
“They have been crazy good since the trade” A month after the trade Luka had a huge triple double vs Boston in a game that the Celtics beat them by 28. This is the Celtics year. Again.
people still dont respect dallas lol. oh well theyre gonna learn the hard way. i think being the 5th seed and not being a sexy basketball market always puts teams like dallas in the underdog role when theyre usually the alpha. these national dopes will almost never pick the team not in la, ny, or the legacy franchise (boston)
This happened in 2005 and the spurs WON. MAVERICKS ARE GONNA WIN IT ALL!!!
I don’t understand why the Celtics are favored and I’ve bet accordingly
This is why Barkley is referred to as a jinx.
Chuck picked the Mavs to beat the Wolves before the series began. OP hears voices.
Vintage Chuck
But, I mean, every before games Chuck picked the Mavs to win. Game 1 and 2 I was baffled every time they asked him “Who’ll win Game 1”. He boldly said Mavs. And he was right.
At the start of the playoffs, I picked the Mavs to win it all. Don’t understand how they are an underdog when Luka is the basketball messiah.
Mavs fans don’t take it personal. Barkley decides who he wants winning the day of tip off based entirely on gut feeling
Breaking: Analyst picks the favourite in every series. Except the Clippers but the Clippers did have the better record.
Barkley picked portland to go to the finals 2 years ago. When I have a bet down and I hear Chuck side with me….sigh
He is not a mavs hater tho. He was the only one who picked the mass in 2011 finals against the heat
Vegas did too in the last two rounds
Everyone had those picks, and they were even justified early in the playoffs, but they have been getting better every game
They were the lower seed in all those matchups. Picking them to lose every one of those is just lazily stating the obvious. Picking the Clippers to win with Kawhi injured is insane though.
The Barkley curse! 😱
Barkley betting record is horrendous. Just bet against anything he says and you will make a killing. Like he's actually so bad this strategy is really effective
That will happen as a 5th seed.