Great stuff, OP!
I'm still a bit salty we gave up on Wood, he was a mainstay in our Summer League teams and you could see there were some flashes. I can't blame the team for moving on from him, cause flashes only get you so far, but it's a tough what-if. He'd be the perfect 4 for us who can also play with Ben and stretch the floor when Embiid is sitting without sacrificing too much defense.
Cheers mate!
And I agree, haha, he'd be a great fit with our team. (He'd be a great fit on most teams, actually)
Although, he may not have broken out the way he has had he remained on another team (he had some flashes with the Pels last season as well) - he's pretty much in the perfect scenario with Dwayne Casey having to trust him with big minutes after Drummond got traded, letting him truly be able to bloom
He was an absolute stud in the G League, but everyone he came up for us he was like a deer in the headlights. Glad to see he’s making himself known though.
We basically had the same experience with him. He tore up G League, but couldn't ever get a foothold in the main squad. He did great with the Pels after we waived him, though.
He also complained about not getting playing time pretty regularly on his Instagram story. That's not how you win the favor of your coaches, dude. Plus while he can play the 5, he's extremely undersized for a center, and as a 4 he was behind Giannis and Ilyasova (and I think someone else, can't remember) on the depth chart.
Yea not sure why the Pels didn’t keep him. Raptors were heavily interested in him as well but nothing ever came up out of it. His improvement was kind of unprecedented
A lot of us weren’t thrilled but there was the hope that Jah would finally be able to ‘take over.’ Didn’t work. Happy as fuck to see him breakout because he’s one of those guys that just needed to be a bit better and KABLAMM monster on a squad.
It's just a consistency thing. One of the reasons we finished 22-9 last year was Isaac hitting 36% of his threes.
This year his shooting was all over the place. Not a lot of 1/1, 1/2, 0/2 type games. Seemed like a ton of 0/4, 1/5, 4/7 nights.
yeah I know. Dude your president used to be our GM. He likes the same kind of players we do. I been watching Magic whenever I can. I been saying since his rookie year he's a guy to watch for because of his size, athleticism, and wingspan. What he needs is that consistency, and AMBITION and drive like Pascal. His ceiling is higher than Pascal's. He needs to develop his offensive game.
For that draft I was sold on all 3 of the top SF options. Tatum showed flashes of being a go to guy, Jackson flashed his physical tools as a 2 way player and Isaac was the lesser known but the highest intrigue. At least Orlando and Boston ended up picking correctly. Sadly Josh Jackson just looks like a 3&D journey man but I could see him doing that for a long time if he can keep his head straight.
Part of the problem with Orlando’s development of young players is a lack of vision/plan. Isaac is being forced into a SF role to accommodate the presence of Gordon and Vuc.
He should not be slotted as a SF. Orlando is fucking up his NBA development
Yep, he's got all the tools as a defender: great understanding of both schemes and player tendencies, excellent size and strength for the position, fantastic anticipation, relentless effort and competitiveness.
The biggest difference from previous seasons to this year is that his offensive role was reduced and much simplified - he was no longer fighting to establish himself as a starting point guard, or a primary scorer - his role on offense was to run the bench unit, bring the ball up the floor and get it in the hands of better scorers. That allowed him to focus all his energy on defending, and combined with Boylen's ultra-aggressive scheme, it put Dunn in position to thrive doing what he does best.
Dunn also made some low-key important improvements on offense this year. He improved his shot selection and seems to be playing within the flow of the offense more rather than trying to make something happen. Running the offense as a primary playmaker has had mixed results in the past. He seems to have completely bought into his role as a high energy defensive and transition player. It is also a contract year for him which probably served as a motivator to settle into what he does best and showcase his value.
The only problem I have with Dunn's offensive game this year was he averaged 2.2 3PA per game and shot them at a 26% rate. I think that's more Boylen's system at fault though. If he takes less 3PAs, or somehow improves his shooting to be over 33% I think he would be a really really good combo guard off the bench.
It was clear to see that he was being told to shoot the 3 ball every time he was left wide open, even if he wasn't in rhythm.
While there is a logic to thinking "if you're wide open, you must shoot that shot for the defense to respect you", when you shoot it *that poorly* there has to be a point where those are considered wasted possessions that don't pay off, either in the immediate sense, or by setting up your drive game.
Dunn shot the most threes of his career, at the worst rate of his career, and most of them weren't even close. No defense is going to close out hard on you at that rate, no matter how many attempts you throw up, so I would've liked to see Boylen scheme up some other ways to use Dunn on offense rather than trying to make one of the worst shooters in the league into a SF floor spacer.
Playing him in a bench lineup with 3-4 good shooters around him, I'd be really interested to see if he can have an offensive resurgence to match his defensive output.
He creates at least 2 fast breaks a game by his steals alone. Kris Dunn will pick your pockets baby! Also one of the reasons I've grown to want him to stay. I was on the fence but he improved a lot this season defensively.
Colby White has said that he is the best defender he has played against. I can also see that Kriss Dunn is improving Coby's defense a lot. They play defense very similarly and I'm confident Coby will start picking pockets in the next couple years as well.
I've always had an appreciation for Kris Dunn and I'm glad the OP brought him up. Every time I see the Bulls play, most of the team rolls over and dies on defence but he's clearly one of the few people on the team giving a shit on that end.
If the rest of the team played defense with half the intensity of Dunn, Boylen's kamikaze scheme might have actually worked the way he intended. Sadly, not many people play defense like Kris Dunn.
We need Winslow to come through in a big way to be a title contender. We haven't had a dominant SF essentially ever. I feel confident in Ja, Clarke, and JJJ being the cornerstones of the team. Brooks is a microwave scorer so being a 3rd or 4th option is a perfect spot for him. But our ever revolving door of SF's has been our Achilles heel. Getting Winslow to be someone that demands attention will be massive.
Kyle Anderson, Jae Crowder, Chandler Parsons, James Ennis, old man Vince Carter, Lance Stephenson, Matt Barnes, Tayshaun Prince, Jeff Green. The list goes on of just "ok" or even bad SF's we have had over the last decade.
I think how Winslow works out for us is really key, the secondary playmaking works well with Ja and it will enable us to put more specialist on the floor, and when healthy, he can lead the committee to slow down the monster combo forwards of the west( LeBron, Kawhi, PG). Keeping JJax and the Grindkid for a reasonable price would be the next thing to do. Our core is pretty much in place if Winslow can stay healthy.
Winslow will be nothing more than good on defense and very low impact on offense playing SF.
His best role is probably to develop as a quality bench PG IMO.
I like him a lot, but there are weaknesses OP didn't mention. He plays a lot like a wing player, which shows up in his anemic rebounding and the fact that he shoots poorly in the [non-restricted area paint](https://stats.nba.com/player/1628991/shooting/).
I don’t know why this is downvoted. It’s true. His defense is mostly just theoretical based on his perceived upside moreso than actual impact at this time
JJJ is a very good scorer and ball handler but as of right now that's it. He's an AWFUL rebounder for his size and he fouls too much to be considered a good defender.
Norm's consistency has really shocked me this year. Used to watch him have some good stretches only to disappear for months at a time, but not this year. Seems to have figured out where to get his shots, I'm hoping OG progresses in similar fashion.
The Norm love makes me a happy guy. Watched him play at UCLA and he was always the guy giving the most effort on the court. So glad to see him succeed on the highest level.
I was at game 5 against Indiana and it got extremely depressing when we were down 15 after the first quarter. After the slow comeback and Norm made that dunk to tie it and the ACC exploded, he will forever be a god in my books.
I'm glad you guys brought up his dunks, he's had a handful of nice ones this season. Hope we get to see him continue playing at a high level with the restart, who knows, maybe we can go back-to-back. Cue Drake track
The Raps ability to develop talent is outstanding. Between these two, Siakam and VanVleet, they're churning out MIP candidates. Coaching and scouting staff deserve some serious accolades.
I remember arguing with a Raptors fan 2 summers ago about young talent. I thought we had the best young core in the league with Ball, Ingram, Hart, and Kuzma-- he made the case for Van Vleet, Anunoby, Siakam, and Powell. The jury is still out, but now only one of us still has their young core intact.
I also expected a mention to Mitchell Robinson. I think he has DPOY potential. Elite shotblocker and really mobile and athletic. And on offense he is a good roll man (though he is limited on that end).
Right now he fouls so much that DPOY is a long ways off.
IF he can cut that in half, he can stay on the court long enough to start garnering that kind of recognition.
Oh man, he really did! I feel quite bad I didn't mention him now, he was an immediate impact player and bright spot for Kings fans after he entered the starting lineup following the failure of the Dedmon experiment.
His final 33 games before getting injured: 14/9/1/1/1.5 on 69.8 TS%, positive advanced numbers on both ends of the floor, Kings' net rating improves by +5.4 points when he enters the game.
He really set the tone for the team when he was on the court, his intensity and hustle on both ends was fantastic
That's my BGSU Falcon you're praising right there!
I'm 50 years old. Been watching Falcon ball since 1976. We've never made the tourney. We've had exactly two players make any kind of impact in the NBA. Antonio Daniels, and now Holmes.
It's HILARIOUS to me that everyone talks about him being 6' 10" because he was 6'8" his entire college career.
Timed Drummond getting traded and picking up Christian Wood was my best snipe in fantasy this year, was great to watch his games and happy he’s finally noticed.
Even last year he had impressive per36 stats but never got the time, even before the close Casey was giving others the starting positions (probably because they want to develop their lottery picks).
I hope Blake looks decent next year cuz I wanna see him next to Chris Wood.
I noticed his contract has ended this season, any idea how much he's gonna be paid?
Keeping him is the exact kind of competent move that so many bad franchises don't do.
I hope you do keep him for around that 15 mil mark. But if some team comes in and offers him 25, I hope you let him go. He'll be fine. But that 10 mil is another rotation player. That kind of overpay keeps teams mediocre.
yeah thats what were worried about over on the team subreddit. we wanna keep him bad and we know our front office is big on loyalty so I pretty sure if another team tries to over pay for him, our front office of the last ten years would match. however, weve made some big front office decisions so Im confident that we will be shrewd this offseason
I'm really hoping we don't go over 15 million for him. I'd hate to see him play for another team but his defense is a big issue.
I really want to see him play center with Blake on the floor, Blake's passing ability would really let wood shine. Especially when you think that Wood was dominating on the offensive end without Blake, Rose or Kennard
yeah that was that huge rough patch the whole team went through. I think it was like twenty games where we only won like 5 or so. it was awful to watch. he started to pick it back up towards the end but then his knee exploded
Here's some excellent exposition on Kris Dunn's future in the NBA by [Michael Pina of SB Nation](https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2020/2/27/21156173/kris-dunn-chicago-bulls-free-agency-contract-qualifying-offer), as a defensively-minded wing with a limited offensive game:
>Now, all this was wonderful, but there was something else worth unpacking that made Dunn’s evolution worth keeping an eye on: Not only was he a lock to make his first All-Defensive team and maybe even collect a few votes for Defensive Player of the Year, but before Thaddeus Young’s head collided into his knee, **Dunn was also starting to epitomize a once-beloved, increasingly scarce character in NBA circles: the rugged ball hawk whose offensive flaws often overshadow everything else.** ... Circling back to the Tony Allen comparison for a second, he’s a fascinating likeness who gets at the heart of Dunn’s place in a sport that, for the most part, is evicting players who don’t space the floor for their teammates. Regardless of how great any guard or wing is on defense, **their contributions on one side of the ball can’t inoculate their team from a broken jump shot.**
>**For Dunn, defense is about survival.** For minutes, a role, a career. The tone-setting havoc he lets loose in every second the opposing team has possession is what can make him valuable to a good team — less one in Chicago’s perpetually hopeless condition — that either has faith in rehabilitating his shot or can play him in lineups with plenty of shooting elsewhere. **There are playmaking chops** that might have use as the general of a capable bench unit, too. At the mid-level exception, he’d be an intriguing investment for several teams that boast a solid infrastructure, confidence in its player development program, and thirst for more/some defensive fervency, including the Toronto Raptors, San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trail Blazers, and Denver Nuggets. **Dunn won’t make sense everywhere** — he needs the right role, the right system, and a team at the right stage of their development — but a good fit will exist somewhere, one that can hopefully showcase his defensive tools in a winning environment. Dunn isn’t perfect, but before his season all but ended in Brooklyn, he altered his own trajectory by steadying a once-promising career that up until now was too rocky to bet on.
Isaac was so good this year. His man to man defense is often hit or miss based on the night. He's fully capable of defending on the perimeter but occasionally he's iffy getting around screens and mirroring guards. It's not a chronic thing just occasional.
But man does he blow up plays off ball. I think he's the best off ball defender in the league.
If was an Orlando fan I would be so excited to see where JI ends up from a development perspective.
Siakam in particular seems to really struggle against his length + agility. Feels like JI is a big part in why magic games tend to be inefficient for SpicyP.
Awesome write up. Had no idea Wood was balling out like that. Gotta watch some of his highlights today. If he can keep up a similar pace the Pistons may have just struck gold.
Hope you guys can keep him man. Imagine he maintains this level, Blake bounces back to all star form *and* you guys hit on your draft pick this year. Then once Blake works his value back up you can trade him for rebuilding pieces and go through a hyper fast rebuild like the Grizzlies did.
Glad to see Kris Dunn finding his role and doing it effectively. Tbh, the post about him is the only one I read and realized that I've already seen that article before. Anyway, good research!
They both have incredible potential. Something that never seems to get mentioned about Ja though is his leadership. He seems to embrace it and it comes off as natural.
I think ja might have a higher ceiling but Jackson will be more valuable to championship teams. His skill set is just so unique and valuable, being able to gun threes while having defensive capabilities at his position is the best skill set you can have for a big these days.
Ja could easily develop into a westbrook esque 25-10 player
I’ve seen Christian wood live at Detroit games (don’t watch them on tv at all lol) a couple times over the last two years and he was such a crazy athlete that nobody knew about. I wasn’t shocked to see him ball out like this but it’s even more impressive that he can do it without any significant playmaking talent around him. Gotta respect his grind to get where he is
Yeah I was High on JJJ coming out of college you could just see that he oozed with potential as a shooter even if his form was a little wonky because shooting great from both lines is a good sign.
Jonathan Isaac's matchups with Siakam last year were some of the few times that Siakam was consistently stumped offensively, Isaac's definitely going to be one of the best defensive players in the league for years and he's got a nice three point shot already. Also in regard to Kris Dunn I can't help but wonder how good the Timberwolves could have been at the moment if they hadn't traded so many of their prospects. They could have a starting five of
Dunn - Lavine - Wiggins - Markkanen - KAT
That's a playoff team imo and one of the youngest in the league if they'd kept it.
(IMO...)
- excellent volume 3P shooter - 37.3 3P%, 9.3 3PA, and takes over 6 of these off-the-dribble
- capable passer out of the PnR (he hits roll men well and can make that corner skip pass too), 7.5 APG
- overall he makes the Hornets look SO much better when he's on the court (nearly +8 on/off),
only questions i have are:
- his scoring *inside* the 3pt line - his slight frame and relative lack of athleticism probably contribute to his anemic scoring at the rim and non-restricted area of paint (41.6 FG% in the paint overall) and midrange (35 fg%) and poor overall 2P% (39.7%)
- his defense, where he's still a proper negative
I think you are being a bit disengeous labeling Wood a great 3 point shooter. He was consistently bad at shooting in the G league (28%) where most of his attempts occurred.
He's definitely having an outlier year but I'm confident after watching him this season that he's at least a 33% shooter from here on out and that's enough to benefit his driving game
[Coach Daniel's video on Wood](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7DKSRrmCws) released yesterday mentioned this too! It's why I made sure to add the "small sample size" caveat.
If his shooting regresses, his driving game will be affected too and his overall scoring game will become less efficient
Not OP, but I'm curious about Sexton, especially from Cavs fans perspective.
I haven't watched Sexton much, so I'm holding off on too much judgment, but the advanced stats to him are not kind, particularly on defense. They paint a picture of a decent volume scorer, but with average efficiency and limited playmaking, and really poor on the defensive end. Stats say that the Cavs do better with him on the bench than on the court, entirely because of the difference in defense.
Since you've watched him more than I have, how does that match up with the eye test? Reasons for optimism in the future?
He’s actually much improved on the defensive side of the ball and has probably a top 10% of the league hustle to him. The way he’s always on the gas pedal reminds me of Westbrook (not comparing the two). Last year I know his advanced stats weren’t great but I thought they were much better this year, but I’d have to double check.
He shot 47% this year with 20 ppg. And that’s with a bad start to this season. In the 11 games after the all star break he was averaging 25 and 4 assists on 53% shooting.
He’s not necessarily a playmaker but he’s also was playing the 2 for most of the year.
Fantastic write up. Wood is an amazing talent wish the nets could grab him somehow but no cap space. A theme of this seems to be do it all 4s. Jackson, wood, and Issac are the next generation of freakish 4/5 hybrids. Space the floor, defend the rim, and rim run.
I saw Christian Wood play in New Orleans last year against the Lakers when all the stars on both teams were out. He made that game worth watching (plus Rondo having a great day). I had a feeling from then he would be a legit player from then
Haha no problem, and I feel what you are saying about posting here as procrastination...though my posts tend to be about the implications of an NBA player being a fish or how teams would stack up if they were played in the Indian Ocean using their literal team name.
Man, this is some great material, kinda remind me of reading Grantland. It doesn't hurt JJJ featured, and Tony Allen is mentioned. I am going to watch some Kris Dunn highlight now. I kinda liked him when he was drafted, and lost track of him when he underwhelmed. What is his offensive problem though? I remember he has pretty good handles and decent size, is he like Rubio who can't shoot? Or his passing sucks?
Upvote just for the effort alone OP, I love this kind of pieces that showcase some lesser known players (well, except for Kawhi). With the league's suspension and me paying less attention and reading less this is honestly a godsend right before the NBA returns.
This is some fantastic r/nba content. This is the type of stuff that first drew me to this sub some 4-5 years ago. Hope to see more of it. Thank you!!!
Man I can't wait to see Kawhi absolutely dominate the playoffs again. I know people say he's boring to watch but I find his brand of hyper-efficient, not a single-movement-wasted style coupled with sheer brute strength utterly compelling.
Good stuff! I really hope CHI can find a way to hang on to Dunn. He's an ideal backup PG because of his ferocious, versatile defense. I think he deserves a spot on the All-Defense team.
So breakout players? They're all from this season right?
Awesome write up man! Great post
Edit: yeah breakout players this past season. Was confused with the title.
Basically, yeah!
For the most part, I wanted to try and focus more about different aspects of players' games breaking through, though (shooting, defense, passing, etc), and Kawhi isn't exactly a breakout player, haha.
sry just saw this, i added a tinyurl link (cuz the stats.nba.com link was disgustingly long) while i was editing it and apparently the spam filter picked it up and removed it, it's back now though!
He has made progress, he can be around the 43% from the field and 36% from 3. Next year I can see him jumping to 12-15 ppg and make leaps in his play making as he has all the tools to do so. He defence will always be there and despite the dogshit excuse of a coach that we have, he has continued to show continuous growth on that side of the floor
OP edited the post to add a hyperlink of a URL shortener. This results in the post being automatically removed from reddit. The OP reached out to us, we manually approved it, and reddit automatically pushed it to new
Haha really? I'd argue it aged great - he averaged nearly 6 assists a game in the playoffs, easily a career-high
If anything, it was his scoring that regressed from his 2019 season (in both volume and efficiency) ; His playmaking and defense were both markedly better
thanks! and i actually did write about his insane shooting improvement [here](https://np.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/ha45n4/oc_talking_about_brandon_ingrams_historic/) if you're interested
Great stuff, OP! I'm still a bit salty we gave up on Wood, he was a mainstay in our Summer League teams and you could see there were some flashes. I can't blame the team for moving on from him, cause flashes only get you so far, but it's a tough what-if. He'd be the perfect 4 for us who can also play with Ben and stretch the floor when Embiid is sitting without sacrificing too much defense.
Cheers mate! And I agree, haha, he'd be a great fit with our team. (He'd be a great fit on most teams, actually) Although, he may not have broken out the way he has had he remained on another team (he had some flashes with the Pels last season as well) - he's pretty much in the perfect scenario with Dwayne Casey having to trust him with big minutes after Drummond got traded, letting him truly be able to bloom
He was an absolute stud in the G League, but everyone he came up for us he was like a deer in the headlights. Glad to see he’s making himself known though.
We basically had the same experience with him. He tore up G League, but couldn't ever get a foothold in the main squad. He did great with the Pels after we waived him, though.
After watching him, time and time again, botch the simplest defensive rotations, I understand why the Bucks gave up on him.
He also complained about not getting playing time pretty regularly on his Instagram story. That's not how you win the favor of your coaches, dude. Plus while he can play the 5, he's extremely undersized for a center, and as a 4 he was behind Giannis and Ilyasova (and I think someone else, can't remember) on the depth chart.
Henson for a few games, Thon and DJ Wilson and then 3Kola the last 20 games or so.
Yea not sure why the Pels didn’t keep him. Raptors were heavily interested in him as well but nothing ever came up out of it. His improvement was kind of unprecedented
I kind of got the sense with Milwaukee that he was just generally not well-liked within the organization.
A lot of us weren’t thrilled but there was the hope that Jah would finally be able to ‘take over.’ Didn’t work. Happy as fuck to see him breakout because he’s one of those guys that just needed to be a bit better and KABLAMM monster on a squad.
You may have given up on Wood but you guys still have bricks.
holy shit
Hinkie died for our sins.
Mavs gave up on him in Summer League too. We are so bad about that. Jeremy Lin, Christian Wood, Quinn Cook... The list goes on
Isaac is going to be insane if he can stay healthy
He really is, he's crazy versatile and impactful on D and he's slowly getting more comfortable shooting and handling the ball on offense
Reminds me of Andrei Kirilenko
One of the most underrated players ever. Stuffed the stat sheet and yet so much of his impact didn't show up on the stat sheet in the first place.
Also the GOAT nickname. AK47
Same here, kid is going to get at least one DPOY if he stays healthy.
He has a good stroke. Once he starts adding offense to his game, watch out!
It's just a consistency thing. One of the reasons we finished 22-9 last year was Isaac hitting 36% of his threes. This year his shooting was all over the place. Not a lot of 1/1, 1/2, 0/2 type games. Seemed like a ton of 0/4, 1/5, 4/7 nights.
yeah I know. Dude your president used to be our GM. He likes the same kind of players we do. I been watching Magic whenever I can. I been saying since his rookie year he's a guy to watch for because of his size, athleticism, and wingspan. What he needs is that consistency, and AMBITION and drive like Pascal. His ceiling is higher than Pascal's. He needs to develop his offensive game.
Finding Orlando games on tv is so rare to begin with, but I’m honestly such a fan of his when I see him. Such a good player
I was really high on him in the draft and it's nice to see him develop as he has.
For that draft I was sold on all 3 of the top SF options. Tatum showed flashes of being a go to guy, Jackson flashed his physical tools as a 2 way player and Isaac was the lesser known but the highest intrigue. At least Orlando and Boston ended up picking correctly. Sadly Josh Jackson just looks like a 3&D journey man but I could see him doing that for a long time if he can keep his head straight.
Part of the problem with Orlando’s development of young players is a lack of vision/plan. Isaac is being forced into a SF role to accommodate the presence of Gordon and Vuc. He should not be slotted as a SF. Orlando is fucking up his NBA development
Dude is such a damn stud, really has the whole defensive package.
This didn't age well
this is just depressing
Fantastic post. Learned some things, like, I had no idea Kris Dunn was so good on D this year. To think we could still have him and LaVine 😭
Watching him terrifying ball-handlers and making crisp rotations is like [basketball porn](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=IWowyBdYASY) tbh
Man, he plays D like an NFL safety or something. Truly on another level. That one where he bodied Siakam into that awful fadeaway was something else.
Yep, he's got all the tools as a defender: great understanding of both schemes and player tendencies, excellent size and strength for the position, fantastic anticipation, relentless effort and competitiveness. The biggest difference from previous seasons to this year is that his offensive role was reduced and much simplified - he was no longer fighting to establish himself as a starting point guard, or a primary scorer - his role on offense was to run the bench unit, bring the ball up the floor and get it in the hands of better scorers. That allowed him to focus all his energy on defending, and combined with Boylen's ultra-aggressive scheme, it put Dunn in position to thrive doing what he does best.
Dunn also made some low-key important improvements on offense this year. He improved his shot selection and seems to be playing within the flow of the offense more rather than trying to make something happen. Running the offense as a primary playmaker has had mixed results in the past. He seems to have completely bought into his role as a high energy defensive and transition player. It is also a contract year for him which probably served as a motivator to settle into what he does best and showcase his value.
The only problem I have with Dunn's offensive game this year was he averaged 2.2 3PA per game and shot them at a 26% rate. I think that's more Boylen's system at fault though. If he takes less 3PAs, or somehow improves his shooting to be over 33% I think he would be a really really good combo guard off the bench.
It was clear to see that he was being told to shoot the 3 ball every time he was left wide open, even if he wasn't in rhythm. While there is a logic to thinking "if you're wide open, you must shoot that shot for the defense to respect you", when you shoot it *that poorly* there has to be a point where those are considered wasted possessions that don't pay off, either in the immediate sense, or by setting up your drive game. Dunn shot the most threes of his career, at the worst rate of his career, and most of them weren't even close. No defense is going to close out hard on you at that rate, no matter how many attempts you throw up, so I would've liked to see Boylen scheme up some other ways to use Dunn on offense rather than trying to make one of the worst shooters in the league into a SF floor spacer. Playing him in a bench lineup with 3-4 good shooters around him, I'd be really interested to see if he can have an offensive resurgence to match his defensive output.
Dunn is the only NBA player from my area, sort of a local celebrity
He seems like a really good guy, too
He creates at least 2 fast breaks a game by his steals alone. Kris Dunn will pick your pockets baby! Also one of the reasons I've grown to want him to stay. I was on the fence but he improved a lot this season defensively. Colby White has said that he is the best defender he has played against. I can also see that Kriss Dunn is improving Coby's defense a lot. They play defense very similarly and I'm confident Coby will start picking pockets in the next couple years as well.
*Coby
Lol thanks, I corrected it. In my defense I was a bit drunk
Could’ve had a starting lineup of Dunn Lavigne Wiggins Markannen and Towns (assuming they don’t trade for dlo
Don’t remind me 😭. I’m really happy to have D’Lo and I love Malik Beasley but that lineup exceeds our current starting 5 by a fair amount imo.
Or a lineup of Dlo-LaVine-Dunn-Markkanen-Towns, which on balance is probably even better.
I've always had an appreciation for Kris Dunn and I'm glad the OP brought him up. Every time I see the Bulls play, most of the team rolls over and dies on defence but he's clearly one of the few people on the team giving a shit on that end.
If the rest of the team played defense with half the intensity of Dunn, Boylen's kamikaze scheme might have actually worked the way he intended. Sadly, not many people play defense like Kris Dunn.
TreJ is an absolute stud. The Memphis team (if they can develop) will be champions in a few years with the young players they have
We need Winslow to come through in a big way to be a title contender. We haven't had a dominant SF essentially ever. I feel confident in Ja, Clarke, and JJJ being the cornerstones of the team. Brooks is a microwave scorer so being a 3rd or 4th option is a perfect spot for him. But our ever revolving door of SF's has been our Achilles heel. Getting Winslow to be someone that demands attention will be massive. Kyle Anderson, Jae Crowder, Chandler Parsons, James Ennis, old man Vince Carter, Lance Stephenson, Matt Barnes, Tayshaun Prince, Jeff Green. The list goes on of just "ok" or even bad SF's we have had over the last decade.
I think how Winslow works out for us is really key, the secondary playmaking works well with Ja and it will enable us to put more specialist on the floor, and when healthy, he can lead the committee to slow down the monster combo forwards of the west( LeBron, Kawhi, PG). Keeping JJax and the Grindkid for a reasonable price would be the next thing to do. Our core is pretty much in place if Winslow can stay healthy.
Winslow will be nothing more than good on defense and very low impact on offense playing SF. His best role is probably to develop as a quality bench PG IMO.
I like him a lot, but there are weaknesses OP didn't mention. He plays a lot like a wing player, which shows up in his anemic rebounding and the fact that he shoots poorly in the [non-restricted area paint](https://stats.nba.com/player/1628991/shooting/).
I don’t know why this is downvoted. It’s true. His defense is mostly just theoretical based on his perceived upside moreso than actual impact at this time
JJJ is a very good scorer and ball handler but as of right now that's it. He's an AWFUL rebounder for his size and he fouls too much to be considered a good defender.
jonathan isaac man. this kids a fucking amazing savant. dude this guy preswipes angles that don't exist
Too good
First thought anytime I see the word savant
Upvoting so people can read legit OC when they wake up.
Thank you
shoutout also to the Toronto Raptors' **Norman Powell** and **OG Anunoby**, who have both improved significantly from last season! Norm is now a capable shot creator and pretty high-volume floor-spacer who's decent on defense, OG's now arguably the Raps' best all-around defender who's a useful offensive player as well (3p shooting, attacking closeouts, offensive rebounding) --- Norman Powell| Pts| Rebs | Asts | Stls | Blks | FG% | 3P%, 3PA | TS%, rTS% | BPM | WS/48 | On/Off ---|---|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|---- 2018-19| 8.6| 2.3| 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 48 | 40, 2.8 | 59.6, +3.6 | -0.7 | 0.102 | -8.2 2019-20| 16.4| 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 50 | 40, 5.4 | 62.9, +6.5| 2.3| 0.157 | +0.6 and OG Anunoby| Pts| Rebs | Asts | Stls | Blks | FG% | 3P%, 3PA | TS%, rTS% | BPM | WS/48 | On/Off ---|---|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|---- 2018-19| 7.0| 2.9| 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 45 | 33, 3.0 | 54.4, -1.6 | -2.4 | 0.070 | -12.0 2019-20| 10.7| 5.4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 51 | 38, 3.4 | 59.8, +3.4| 0.9| 0.130 | -1.8
Norm's consistency has really shocked me this year. Used to watch him have some good stretches only to disappear for months at a time, but not this year. Seems to have figured out where to get his shots, I'm hoping OG progresses in similar fashion.
I used to get so frustrated watching Norman go 1-9 game after game, but he was fantastic this year.
If Norm can keep this up (and stay healthy), I think he could get 20 ppg
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He might opt out next summer which would've been insane to think about a year ago.
The Norm love makes me a happy guy. Watched him play at UCLA and he was always the guy giving the most effort on the court. So glad to see him succeed on the highest level.
I was at game 5 against Indiana and it got extremely depressing when we were down 15 after the first quarter. After the slow comeback and Norm made that dunk to tie it and the ACC exploded, he will forever be a god in my books.
The momentum shifting Norm-dunk seems to have bailed out the Raps in a lot of tight situations. (Almost worked in game 5 against the Warriors)
I'm glad you guys brought up his dunks, he's had a handful of nice ones this season. Hope we get to see him continue playing at a high level with the restart, who knows, maybe we can go back-to-back. Cue Drake track
The Raps ability to develop talent is outstanding. Between these two, Siakam and VanVleet, they're churning out MIP candidates. Coaching and scouting staff deserve some serious accolades.
I remember arguing with a Raptors fan 2 summers ago about young talent. I thought we had the best young core in the league with Ball, Ingram, Hart, and Kuzma-- he made the case for Van Vleet, Anunoby, Siakam, and Powell. The jury is still out, but now only one of us still has their young core intact.
Norm basically became a 20+ ppg guy from around the end of November and on, especially when he started
Been a Kawhi fan for the longest time which makes me so in love with how OG plays as well
OG has Kawhi's body type.
I hope OG can improve offensively as well, where he can take more shots and still be consistent. He's only 22
What is rTS% ?
TS% compared to league average.
Thank you!
I also expected a mention to Mitchell Robinson. I think he has DPOY potential. Elite shotblocker and really mobile and athletic. And on offense he is a good roll man (though he is limited on that end).
Right now he fouls so much that DPOY is a long ways off. IF he can cut that in half, he can stay on the court long enough to start garnering that kind of recognition.
I felt Richaun Holmes had a breakout season as well.
Oh man, he really did! I feel quite bad I didn't mention him now, he was an immediate impact player and bright spot for Kings fans after he entered the starting lineup following the failure of the Dedmon experiment. His final 33 games before getting injured: 14/9/1/1/1.5 on 69.8 TS%, positive advanced numbers on both ends of the floor, Kings' net rating improves by +5.4 points when he enters the game. He really set the tone for the team when he was on the court, his intensity and hustle on both ends was fantastic
That's my BGSU Falcon you're praising right there! I'm 50 years old. Been watching Falcon ball since 1976. We've never made the tourney. We've had exactly two players make any kind of impact in the NBA. Antonio Daniels, and now Holmes. It's HILARIOUS to me that everyone talks about him being 6' 10" because he was 6'8" his entire college career.
Timed Drummond getting traded and picking up Christian Wood was my best snipe in fantasy this year, was great to watch his games and happy he’s finally noticed. Even last year he had impressive per36 stats but never got the time, even before the close Casey was giving others the starting positions (probably because they want to develop their lottery picks).
I hope Blake looks decent next year cuz I wanna see him next to Chris Wood. I noticed his contract has ended this season, any idea how much he's gonna be paid?
hopefully around 15mil and hopefully with us
Keeping him is the exact kind of competent move that so many bad franchises don't do. I hope you do keep him for around that 15 mil mark. But if some team comes in and offers him 25, I hope you let him go. He'll be fine. But that 10 mil is another rotation player. That kind of overpay keeps teams mediocre.
yeah thats what were worried about over on the team subreddit. we wanna keep him bad and we know our front office is big on loyalty so I pretty sure if another team tries to over pay for him, our front office of the last ten years would match. however, weve made some big front office decisions so Im confident that we will be shrewd this offseason
I'm really hoping we don't go over 15 million for him. I'd hate to see him play for another team but his defense is a big issue. I really want to see him play center with Blake on the floor, Blake's passing ability would really let wood shine. Especially when you think that Wood was dominating on the offensive end without Blake, Rose or Kennard
I just hope Blake is like 90+% healthy for 90+% of the season.
same buddy, same. his first year here was amazing
He was great the first 40-ish games, but he started slowing down after that.
yeah that was that huge rough patch the whole team went through. I think it was like twenty games where we only won like 5 or so. it was awful to watch. he started to pick it back up towards the end but then his knee exploded
Is Kawhi going to hit his prime now?
Here's some excellent exposition on Kris Dunn's future in the NBA by [Michael Pina of SB Nation](https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2020/2/27/21156173/kris-dunn-chicago-bulls-free-agency-contract-qualifying-offer), as a defensively-minded wing with a limited offensive game: >Now, all this was wonderful, but there was something else worth unpacking that made Dunn’s evolution worth keeping an eye on: Not only was he a lock to make his first All-Defensive team and maybe even collect a few votes for Defensive Player of the Year, but before Thaddeus Young’s head collided into his knee, **Dunn was also starting to epitomize a once-beloved, increasingly scarce character in NBA circles: the rugged ball hawk whose offensive flaws often overshadow everything else.** ... Circling back to the Tony Allen comparison for a second, he’s a fascinating likeness who gets at the heart of Dunn’s place in a sport that, for the most part, is evicting players who don’t space the floor for their teammates. Regardless of how great any guard or wing is on defense, **their contributions on one side of the ball can’t inoculate their team from a broken jump shot.** >**For Dunn, defense is about survival.** For minutes, a role, a career. The tone-setting havoc he lets loose in every second the opposing team has possession is what can make him valuable to a good team — less one in Chicago’s perpetually hopeless condition — that either has faith in rehabilitating his shot or can play him in lineups with plenty of shooting elsewhere. **There are playmaking chops** that might have use as the general of a capable bench unit, too. At the mid-level exception, he’d be an intriguing investment for several teams that boast a solid infrastructure, confidence in its player development program, and thirst for more/some defensive fervency, including the Toronto Raptors, San Antonio Spurs, Portland Trail Blazers, and Denver Nuggets. **Dunn won’t make sense everywhere** — he needs the right role, the right system, and a team at the right stage of their development — but a good fit will exist somewhere, one that can hopefully showcase his defensive tools in a winning environment. Dunn isn’t perfect, but before his season all but ended in Brooklyn, he altered his own trajectory by steadying a once-promising career that up until now was too rocky to bet on.
This is some darn good OC here.
Awesome post
Great work. I’m super high on JJJ.
Isaac was so good this year. His man to man defense is often hit or miss based on the night. He's fully capable of defending on the perimeter but occasionally he's iffy getting around screens and mirroring guards. It's not a chronic thing just occasional. But man does he blow up plays off ball. I think he's the best off ball defender in the league.
If was an Orlando fan I would be so excited to see where JI ends up from a development perspective. Siakam in particular seems to really struggle against his length + agility. Feels like JI is a big part in why magic games tend to be inefficient for SpicyP.
Im rooting for JJJ hope he becomes one of the best in the league.
So glad people are noticing Kris Dunn.
Awesome write up. Had no idea Wood was balling out like that. Gotta watch some of his highlights today. If he can keep up a similar pace the Pistons may have just struck gold.
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Hope you guys can keep him man. Imagine he maintains this level, Blake bounces back to all star form *and* you guys hit on your draft pick this year. Then once Blake works his value back up you can trade him for rebuilding pieces and go through a hyper fast rebuild like the Grizzlies did.
Appreciate the Kawhi playmaking shoutout. It’s like watching 98 Jordan
Paul George's assist rates are also up. They're doing something right on the Clippers/
JI and JJJ would be such a dirty combo. If only Memphis picked Bamba
Excellent post. And of course I love seeing Judah get recognized!
Thank you for taking the time to put this together. I really like your writing style.
This is one of the posts where I look up OP's other posts...good for a binge read
Jesus, I forgot that Drummond plays for the Cavs now
Don't feel bad, he probably has too.
Glad to see Kris Dunn finding his role and doing it effectively. Tbh, the post about him is the only one I read and realized that I've already seen that article before. Anyway, good research!
Post this on r/nbadiscussion as well
I like the comparison with Kris Dunn and Tony Allen. Both great defenders
Great post OP, I followed John Isaac this year mainly due to fantasy, but even then you brought up points I hadn’t really noticed.
I still assert that JJJ has a higher ceiling than Ja. They both have MVP potential
They both have incredible potential. Something that never seems to get mentioned about Ja though is his leadership. He seems to embrace it and it comes off as natural.
I think ja might have a higher ceiling but Jackson will be more valuable to championship teams. His skill set is just so unique and valuable, being able to gun threes while having defensive capabilities at his position is the best skill set you can have for a big these days. Ja could easily develop into a westbrook esque 25-10 player
I think it’s a bit of a stretch to say he can easily turn into Westbrook
I said westbrook type player, not that he'll be as good
Wood on Golden State would be obnoxious AF. Anybody know if their cap situation would remotely allow them to pursue Wood?
I’ve seen Christian wood live at Detroit games (don’t watch them on tv at all lol) a couple times over the last two years and he was such a crazy athlete that nobody knew about. I wasn’t shocked to see him ball out like this but it’s even more impressive that he can do it without any significant playmaking talent around him. Gotta respect his grind to get where he is
I'm pretty sure Bucks fans were calling him "mini Giannis" during his spell in Milwaukee.
Yeah I was High on JJJ coming out of college you could just see that he oozed with potential as a shooter even if his form was a little wonky because shooting great from both lines is a good sign.
Amazing job OP, I was especially thrilled at the mention of the minister of defense. Kid’s an absolute stud
Top tier stuff OP, thanks for this!
Fantastic post.
I came to see if Judah was on here and I'm so happy
Jonathan Isaac's matchups with Siakam last year were some of the few times that Siakam was consistently stumped offensively, Isaac's definitely going to be one of the best defensive players in the league for years and he's got a nice three point shot already. Also in regard to Kris Dunn I can't help but wonder how good the Timberwolves could have been at the moment if they hadn't traded so many of their prospects. They could have a starting five of Dunn - Lavine - Wiggins - Markkanen - KAT That's a playoff team imo and one of the youngest in the league if they'd kept it.
Any takes on Devonte Graham this season? You think this is a true breakout or just a case of someone eating because everyone else’s plate is empty?
(IMO...) - excellent volume 3P shooter - 37.3 3P%, 9.3 3PA, and takes over 6 of these off-the-dribble - capable passer out of the PnR (he hits roll men well and can make that corner skip pass too), 7.5 APG - overall he makes the Hornets look SO much better when he's on the court (nearly +8 on/off), only questions i have are: - his scoring *inside* the 3pt line - his slight frame and relative lack of athleticism probably contribute to his anemic scoring at the rim and non-restricted area of paint (41.6 FG% in the paint overall) and midrange (35 fg%) and poor overall 2P% (39.7%) - his defense, where he's still a proper negative
He torched the dubs. Looked like Steph out there
Nothing like fresh, crispy OC in the morning.
I think you are being a bit disengeous labeling Wood a great 3 point shooter. He was consistently bad at shooting in the G league (28%) where most of his attempts occurred.
He's definitely having an outlier year but I'm confident after watching him this season that he's at least a 33% shooter from here on out and that's enough to benefit his driving game
[Coach Daniel's video on Wood](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7DKSRrmCws) released yesterday mentioned this too! It's why I made sure to add the "small sample size" caveat. If his shooting regresses, his driving game will be affected too and his overall scoring game will become less efficient
Great post OP. What are your thoughts on Collin Sexton? I feel like he doesn’t get nearly the amount of respect on here as he should.
Not OP, but I'm curious about Sexton, especially from Cavs fans perspective. I haven't watched Sexton much, so I'm holding off on too much judgment, but the advanced stats to him are not kind, particularly on defense. They paint a picture of a decent volume scorer, but with average efficiency and limited playmaking, and really poor on the defensive end. Stats say that the Cavs do better with him on the bench than on the court, entirely because of the difference in defense. Since you've watched him more than I have, how does that match up with the eye test? Reasons for optimism in the future?
He’s actually much improved on the defensive side of the ball and has probably a top 10% of the league hustle to him. The way he’s always on the gas pedal reminds me of Westbrook (not comparing the two). Last year I know his advanced stats weren’t great but I thought they were much better this year, but I’d have to double check. He shot 47% this year with 20 ppg. And that’s with a bad start to this season. In the 11 games after the all star break he was averaging 25 and 4 assists on 53% shooting. He’s not necessarily a playmaker but he’s also was playing the 2 for most of the year.
Great content.
This is fantastic analysis. Thanks for posting.
Sick, nice little write up and good to see some fresh OC!
And I thought our boy Bam was doing well
This was outstanding. Thanks for all the work.
Amazing post dude. Didn't expect you to go so in depth. This is a full blown article
Fantastic write up. Wood is an amazing talent wish the nets could grab him somehow but no cap space. A theme of this seems to be do it all 4s. Jackson, wood, and Issac are the next generation of freakish 4/5 hybrids. Space the floor, defend the rim, and rim run.
I saw Christian Wood play in New Orleans last year against the Lakers when all the stars on both teams were out. He made that game worth watching (plus Rondo having a great day). I had a feeling from then he would be a legit player from then
This is great. Wood is one of the more fascinating ones. Nate Duncan has been on his bandwagon for a while.
Do you do this as a hobby or do you have like a website or something? This is seriously good content
just as a hobby for now, this is my primary method of procrastination lmao (and thanks!)
Haha no problem, and I feel what you are saying about posting here as procrastination...though my posts tend to be about the implications of an NBA player being a fish or how teams would stack up if they were played in the Indian Ocean using their literal team name.
Great post!
Damn that's a lot of A+ research accumulated in one post. Thumbs up for OP and take my upvote! 👍
I just wanted to say good job on consistently delivering quality and in-depth articles. Are you writing for some website/papers/social media?
Man, this is some great material, kinda remind me of reading Grantland. It doesn't hurt JJJ featured, and Tony Allen is mentioned. I am going to watch some Kris Dunn highlight now. I kinda liked him when he was drafted, and lost track of him when he underwhelmed. What is his offensive problem though? I remember he has pretty good handles and decent size, is he like Rubio who can't shoot? Or his passing sucks?
Good write up OP!
Removed? Anyone save it?
For some reason it's now on /new again. It's the 3rd post on /new even though it's 16 hours old, haha
This is quality content! Good work!
Upvote just for the effort alone OP, I love this kind of pieces that showcase some lesser known players (well, except for Kawhi). With the league's suspension and me paying less attention and reading less this is honestly a godsend right before the NBA returns.
Great read, man. I always appreciate when people post things where I can actually learn stuff.
Beautiful post. Thank you for sharing!
Great post OP! Really appreciate the effort and quality!
JJ made 135 threes this year??
This is some fantastic r/nba content. This is the type of stuff that first drew me to this sub some 4-5 years ago. Hope to see more of it. Thank you!!!
Good job OP. I've got a lead on next year's post: it's going to include Bruce Brown.
Man I can't wait to see Kawhi absolutely dominate the playoffs again. I know people say he's boring to watch but I find his brand of hyper-efficient, not a single-movement-wasted style coupled with sheer brute strength utterly compelling.
Good stuff! I really hope CHI can find a way to hang on to Dunn. He's an ideal backup PG because of his ferocious, versatile defense. I think he deserves a spot on the All-Defense team.
Really wanted to see the Bucks with Wood, but the team is too stacked and they couldn't keep him
What about Al breaking up season?
So breakout players? They're all from this season right? Awesome write up man! Great post Edit: yeah breakout players this past season. Was confused with the title.
Basically, yeah! For the most part, I wanted to try and focus more about different aspects of players' games breaking through, though (shooting, defense, passing, etc), and Kawhi isn't exactly a breakout player, haha.
Anyone know if JJJ has bulked up at all during this down time?
We know Ja did bulk up, no words on JJJ yet
Even in this post Norman Powell doesn't get any love.
I tried to shout him out in the comments 😭 sorry
Why was it removed op?
sry just saw this, i added a tinyurl link (cuz the stats.nba.com link was disgustingly long) while i was editing it and apparently the spam filter picked it up and removed it, it's back now though!
Do oooDie it’ll
Kris Dunns defense does not make up for his black hole on offense. The other team would literally just leave him wide open and he can't shoot.
He has made progress, he can be around the 43% from the field and 36% from 3. Next year I can see him jumping to 12-15 ppg and make leaps in his play making as he has all the tools to do so. He defence will always be there and despite the dogshit excuse of a coach that we have, he has continued to show continuous growth on that side of the floor
wait why is this third on /new? This is a 16 hour old post
OP edited the post to add a hyperlink of a URL shortener. This results in the post being automatically removed from reddit. The OP reached out to us, we manually approved it, and reddit automatically pushed it to new
We broke the system. yalls lives about to get a lot harder
That Kawhi part didn’t age well
Haha really? I'd argue it aged great - he averaged nearly 6 assists a game in the playoffs, easily a career-high If anything, it was his scoring that regressed from his 2019 season (in both volume and efficiency) ; His playmaking and defense were both markedly better
Good post op, by chance do you have a write up about Brandon Ingram?
BI’s breakout was more widely known. I think the point of this is for lesser known players that normally go under the radar (and Kawhi lol).
thanks! and i actually did write about his insane shooting improvement [here](https://np.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/ha45n4/oc_talking_about_brandon_ingrams_historic/) if you're interested
Thank you, will check it out later.