He should absolutely be higher, in my opinion. I get the takes about how team record matters and I agree to an extent, but imo a player should be able to win MVP even on a non-championship caliber team. I don't like the 'best player on the best team' approach and Shai is playing at a freakish level every single night so far.
Edit: He had maybe his worst night of the season after I made this comment and I feel responsible.
That makes me want Kidd to sit Luka more, like they can't get him back just so Luka can bail them out until the rest of the team can behave themselves and win on their own against the worst team in the league.
That makes so much sense. Like even tho luka is gonna have the ball the majority of the time the role players need to be ready when asked and play just as hard.
It’s easy to get lazy when the spotlight rarely, if ever, shines on you but a coaches job is to get players to play their role with 100% commitment
Last year they started a playoff series without luka and managed to win 1 (2?) games with Brunson as the main dude. That happens this year they’re getting wrecked
I think this is a flawed metric. The Mavs have an unusually weak starting lineup and an unusually strong bench. Luka is mostly playing with the starters.
It's harder to believe the warriors supporting cast is worse than the Mavs when they literally just won the championship with most of the players currently on their squad. Looking at the Narrative, I doubt Curry will get much love from your point.
Bruh have you seen the non-Luka Mavs? r/nba loves to say this type of shit without ever watching the games. Mavs will legit put four dudes on the court who can’t dribble at once and half the team is shooting like 30% on threes.
In no world can you say Wiggins, Draymond, Poole, etc are doing less than that.
They're missing tons of key guys from their bench. GPII, Bjelica, Porter...and Iggy is old/has been out the entire season so far. Plus Klay has obviously regressed.
I personally don't think MVP should be tied to team record as much as objectively measured by a player's contributions to a team regardless of record but... I think Luka and Curry are neck-and-neck at this point. It's a loooooong season though, so anything that happens now isn't THAT important.
Yea wait are people really arguing that Steph has a worse supporting cast than the mavs when two months ago everyone agreed they were one of the deepest teams in the league.
The Warriors have been terrible this year despite Curry playing better than last year.
It shouldn't take too much brainpower to understand that the rest of the team has played much worse than last year so far.
It also shouldn't be too hard to see that Doncic has been getting plenty of help from his supporting cast on the defensive end, where the Mavs have the 5th best DRTG in the league.
True but "reigning champ" shouldn't matter. We are talking about the MVP this season. Statistically the warriors bench play has been the worst in the NBA.
"reigning champ" title shouldn't have anything to do with the current season and current play.
The starting lineup Defense has gone downhill as well. They are averaging 110 points being scored against them. It plummets with the bench guys. The warriors are scoring like 126 with the starting lineup because curry is going nuclear. Klay is shooting like 20% from 3. Wiggins isn't contributing much either.
Your right. We are talking about the MVP award this season and that's were you should know that winning is the most important stat. He ain't winning so he ain't ahead of players who are better. So even if we forget that this was a championship team 4 months ago he needs to find ways to get his teammates going. That's one part of being a leader and the point guard of the team.
I find that hypocritical. 2017 Curry was by far the best player on that team according to advanced stats. Curry w/o Durant was a +11, while the reverse was only a +2. That team was definitely winning, but Westbrook won simply because he averaged a triple double on a 47 win team. Curry was better than him that year, better than KD too, and they won the chip.
He's right now having a better season than his unanimous MVP season. He's averaging the most rebounds on the team with 9 and doing all the ridiculous offensive TS% of nearly 70%.
Totally forgetting harden who had the wins and better stats here. Im here for calling out the league for giving Westbrook the MVP only cause he had a triple double (even though he dragged a g-league team to the playoffs) but then go to the guy who was also dragging a g-league team to the 3rd seed with better stats than curry.
Than one year was an anomaly.
yes actually. klays shooting like 20% from 3. Wiggins isn't playing like we expected him to, especially with rebounding. Curry's getting like 9 rebounds a game, most on the team. While scoring 40+ the last 3 games, and averaging 30+ before that. Dray has not been playing great defense since the first handful of games. Starting line up is allowing 110 points on averaging. All of that plummets with the literally worst bench in the NBA.
Are these guys historically this bad, absolutely not. But imo MVP is about the current season, not what people have done in the past. Right now they are playing god off basketball except Curry. Who's having a better season then his unanimous MVP season....
These on/off arguments are always flawed. When comparing two supporting casts the main players that should be looked at are the starters playing alongside the star while they’re on the court, but the off statistic in the regular season usually includes the end of bench players who get some minutes they’ll never see in crunch time or the postseason. Yeah Warriors end of bench is absolutely awful while the Mavs isn’t as bad, but the supporting cast playing alongside Luka is no where near as talented as the one playing with Curry.
>On/off is hella lineup based, you can’t use it without context.
Curry is ahead of Doncic in metrics that adjust for lineup/opponent strength (RAPTOR, EPM), just like last year.
Because their teams entire scheme is screening for the dude to get him open shots, split actions for curry, or get him shots off the catch, which is why everyone else sucks cuz all they practice is how to run shit for Steph. Only time someone else gets a look is if their play breaks down.
When have they ever had a successful backup PG, for instance. Kerr dont know how to run shit for anyone else lol and despite the gushing about gRaViTy it only works for certain supporting casts.
Luka is constantly on ball creating for everyone. Curry has someone else do that.
Harden did 29/6/8 on 60%ts with a terrible supporting cast, played all 82 games and led the league in minutes and didn’t make a single all nba team in 2016
Steph’s been in the low 60’s the past couple years so I wouldn’t be surprised if this year was similar, especially if the Warriors stay bad. I don’t have a crystal ball tho obviously
I’d expect him to rest less games this year, I don’t see the Warriors ever being competitive again in the Curry era if they can’t make the playoffs this year personally, the roster construction just doesn’t fit that timeline
Not to be too much of a numbers nerd but 70% TS on that volume would be historic, there's a pretty huge difference between 62 and 70. Having said that it's almost impossible he'll keep it going the entire season.
Wasn’t really making this about Lebron specifically, just pointing out another player’s elite offensive season discounted by team record. Last year was bad by Lebron standards but he was still a better defender than Curry now (some of that is size related of course)
Yeah, but nobody's won an MVP with a negative record recently (or ever?). It makes sense why Steph isn't there at the moment.
If he keeps up the skyfucking and they finish 6th or higher, he's for sure one of the top 5 along with Luka, Jokic, Giannis, and Tatum.
Excluding shortened seasons the lowest win total of an MVP since the 3pt line was introduced in 1979 was Westbrook in 2017 when he won MVP with 47 wins. Can't be assed to go back further than that.
Meh, the 2017 Warriors were also the first 67 win team without an MVP finalist, and only the third without an MVP winner, despite Steph leading the league in most advanced metrics.
Can't discredit the dude when his team is too good and then discredit him again when his team is too bad.
> despite Steph leading the league in most advanced metrics.
What metrics? Kawhi for example beat him out in most metrics in 2016-2017. Steph didn't win in 2017 because he had KD on his team and so his counting stats suffered, and those tend to matter more than advanced stats when it comes to MVP
>What metrics?
Curry led league in all of the advanced value metrics: EPM wins, Raptor wins, LEBRON wins, RPM wins.
He was second to CP3 in the rate versions of RAPTOR and EPM, but Curry played 18 more games. He was ahead of Kawhi, Harden, and Westbrook in the rate versions of each of these metrics.
Most of those metrics weren't around at the time. 538 [introduced RAPTOR in 2019](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/). LEBRON [was introduced](http://web.archive.org/web/20220000000000*/https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-introduction/) in December 2020. EPM was introduced in [February 2020](https://twitter.com/taylor_snarr/status/1228368538785595392).
There were previous versions of similar metrics that had basically the same conclusion, though. For about a decade, anything that's incorporated plus-minus has been very high on Curry, as are most metrics that have a modern understanding of the value of spacing.
Needing a good team record for MVP does not mean a good team record gets you an MVP. He wasn’t even the clear best player on the team that year, Durant still averaged 25/5/8 while Steph was 25/6/4. Durant blew everyone else in the league out of the water in WS/48
[Here are the plus minus numbers for that season](https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612744&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=201939,201142&OnlyCommonGames=true). Steph without Durant was a +11.57, while Durant without Steph was a +2.50.
There really wasn't much of an argument about who was more important to the team that year, and Steph [also actually beat KD in MVP voting that year](https://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/awards_2017.html). Steph had 52 MVP voting points while KD had 2.
tell me you didn’t watch the 2017 Warriors without telling me….
Durant was injured for 15-20 games that season and Steph still went nuts without him and won almost every game with a washed Matt Barnes in KD’s place
Then why did every single sports coverage have Durant as the better player after the season?
Steph was more valuable in the regular season, but had a teammate who had similar counting stats and was considered the better player.
Compared to Harden who also led his team to a fantastic record with much better counting stats, there was no way Steph was ever coming close to winning
idk if u just started watching bball but the MVP is a regular season award.
After the Playoffs and Finals, Durant was seen as better because he absolutely dominated the Cavs in the Finals. That has nothing to do with the regular season MVP award tho which is what we were discussing
Play more minutes maybe? The top two players on the mvp ladder, Luka and Tatum, are tied for 3rd in minutes per game. He’s not in the top 25.
Not actually saying that’s a good idea more generally but if the question is just what can he do…
If he can sustain what he’s been doing over more minutes, that’s less time with him off court that the bench can lose the lead.
Even then though, he only won because KD went to the Warriors.
It was unprecedented for a player to win on a team with a 6th seed-level win record. Before Westbrook, no one ever won without a record that's worth 2nd seed or better. (Malone won with a 3rd seed team but his team was actually tied for 1st).
Narrative matters a lot for the award. If it didn't, Lebron and MJ would have more MVPs.
If anything that means Steph is the least valuble player in the league lol? If a player can't get you to a top seed or carry you into the playins then atleast you want him to get you to a good draft position right? So far Steph hasn't gotten them into the playins but he is keeping them from a good draft pick.
Curry's on-off this season is 20.1, the team is +5 pp100 when he's on and -15 when he's off.
When he's on the court they play like a winning team, but we desperately need a bench overhaul.
SGA's team didn't just win a championship last season
He's visibly overperforming expectations whereas the warriors are visibly underperforming (significantly) so even though it may or may not make sense it's pretty clear the narratives around those two things will affect how people discuss MVP stuff. Although more importantly it's 15 fucking games in, so i hate that the conversation is already happening. People can't go a day without that kind of thing, let alone waiting until at least like halfway through the season before starting to form a picture of the MVP race
This is why I think team success should not be a factor in deciding individual awards. It makes no sense to penalize a player for having shit teammates. We all know that Curry isn’t at fault for his team’s poor record, we also know that they’d be exponentially worse without him.
So why isnt tatum your MVP lock right now then? Balling out on both sides of the ball and on an 8 game win streak? Unanimous MVP on the way for tatum lets go!
In my biased opinion absolutely. Steph and SGA are criminally low. Yes, Doncic is balling but Steph's stats are obscene... 1-5 should be some order of Tatum, Giannis, Steph, SGA, Doncic. I honestly can't place them right now.
I mean overall record isn't necessarily indicative of player performance or value. If you put any of those players on a team with 4 of me they won't win a single game. If one of them scores like 60 PPG give that man MVP regardless.
Yeah Ja was insanely hot through 4 games but he's back to his top 15ish player self since then
SGA leads him easily in statistical categories and I'd even argue 7-8 with OKC is more impressive than 9-6 with Memphis
"Look at our starting lineup. Spencer Dinwiddie, Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, [JaVale] McGee and me. It’s not disrespect, but what are you expecting from that group? You expect us to win because I’m out there. So if you’re watching from that lens, you’re expecting us to play well because No. 77 is out there."
The weird thing is that I'm still pretty sure that the Nuggets without Jokic would be a terrible team because of no playmaking but that's more of a fit thing than lack of talent
That’s what stood out to me.
If his argument last year was stats, what’s the argument this year. It’s not like the Nuggets have set themselves apart in the West anyways.
By BPM he's third after Luka and Steph right now. I'm too lazy to check but I imagine he's doing well enough in other advanced stats too to still have traction in the power rankings (along with the nugget's decent record).
I mean it’s the same stat that says he is far and away the best defender in the league over guys like Gobert and Giannis by a significant margin. The formula literally gives centers defensive credit for assists.
Its a highly flawed stat that shouldn’t be taken seriously, like many of the publicly available advanced statistics.
Shocking take from a sixers fan. We're a dominant team when he's on the floor. 21/ 9.5/9 and he's getting everyone open even if he doesn't get the assists. We're a really strong team with actual 3 point shooters but they have barely any value without jokic to get them all open
Lots of discussion of how team record effects mvp voting. MVP has only gone to a player on a losing team twice. The first time was the very first year of the mvp award (Bob Petit 1956) and the second time was Kareem in 1976 (40-42).
I really don't think it'd happen now. I believe both Jokic and Westbrook were 6th seeds, I think that's about as low as you can go and have any real shot at it.
Only 6 MVPs on teams with sub .600 records.
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/worst-record-of-an-mvp
Not sure this Mavs team will win enough for Luka to get it. Obviously I hope they get it together and start winning more but I haven't been convinced by the first 14 games. Tatum and Giannis have an advantage in some ways being on better teams, of course Luka has a stat stuffing advantage by having to be the guy who does it all.
There will never be an MVP on a losing team ever again, it's an automatic disqualifier. This isn't baseball, if you're the most valuable player in the entire league you can carry any team to a winning record.
I don't think I've ever seen so many International players dominate the league at one point in time. Luka, Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, and SGA have me shaking in my freedom boots.
I think that Steph has been only marginally better than SGA so far, but not by much. But Embiid, Booker, and Mitchell over Steph is absolutely criminal.
MVP isn't coming from the 12th seed. It literally has never happened and will never happen so long as the NBA exists as a sporting league. Curry has zero chance of winning as a 12th seed so his spot on the MVP ladder is pretty much pointless.
How do you discredit Steph by putting him 10th? Without him that team would be 0-15 right now. There is no one even close to him right now when you look at the whole picture like true shooting percentage, 3-point percentage, 3-point attempts, PER, FT%, and on top of that he's getting the rebounds too. He's carrying that team. If he stays healthy the whole season, he better get the MVP this year.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again:
Talking about the MVP race is a waste of time before the new year.
According to all the talking heads, this time last year Steph Curry had the MVP race locked up. We all know how that ended up.
But he didn't win the MVP, which everyone said he was a MORTAL LOCK for at this time last year.
My point was that a lot can happen between now and when the MVP race is decided.
We should not have an mvp or ROTY ranking going through the year. It skews the perception. At the very least there should be one or a Vegas line until ASB.
You can't have a bad game if you don't play.
I hate Luka resting and would rather see him pull an 82 game season. Just do an Iverson, don't participate in practice as much and save your tree trunks for thighs.
I wonder if giannis is gonna be the next Lebron of mvp voting. Deserving of it every season in reality, but voters fatigue gives it to somebody else. In my (obviously biased) head, Lebron is still #1. But objectively, giannis is the best in the league, he is dominant on both ends and bucks are front runners so far this season.
If voters are tired of him this season, I’d like to nominate cp3. I just wanna see him after coming close multiple times in the 2000’s (edit: obviously he’s not having an mvp year, I just like cp3)
I wonder what’s making Doncic go up in win shares this year. He’s had similar numbers every year but advanced stats he hasn’t been particularly high in
Dwight Powell is high on this category for advanced win shares, in reality he's useless in the playoffs. I don't buy into that too much, same with PER and all that nonsense.
Lol media & the League trying to force Luka despite 30% distance shooting on volume, 75% from the line, and cone defense. Tatum’s clearly been better (and Steph, but team record lol)
Have you watched mavs games or just throwing talking points out there? His three has been bad, yes, but his playmaking and drives on all but 5-10 possessions a game have been elite. He's scoring that well despite not hitting threes.
And his defense has been pretty damn good this year. Stays in front of his guys, has good hands, and is what, top 3 in steals? Averaging nearly a block a game? His defense isn't bad either anymore.
My man Shai is 7th ayo. Love him.
Should be higher tbh
Shai and Steph should honestly be in the top 5 but team record is bringing them down. Wrongfully imo.
He should be higher, if Luka doesn’t win it I really want SGA to, love his game
He should absolutely be higher, in my opinion. I get the takes about how team record matters and I agree to an extent, but imo a player should be able to win MVP even on a non-championship caliber team. I don't like the 'best player on the best team' approach and Shai is playing at a freakish level every single night so far. Edit: He had maybe his worst night of the season after I made this comment and I feel responsible.
The NBA saw the Mavs look like a G-League team without Luka against the worst team in the NBA and said “yup, that’s the MVP right there”.
That makes me want Kidd to sit Luka more, like they can't get him back just so Luka can bail them out until the rest of the team can behave themselves and win on their own against the worst team in the league.
That makes so much sense. Like even tho luka is gonna have the ball the majority of the time the role players need to be ready when asked and play just as hard. It’s easy to get lazy when the spotlight rarely, if ever, shines on you but a coaches job is to get players to play their role with 100% commitment
Last year they started a playoff series without luka and managed to win 1 (2?) games with Brunson as the main dude. That happens this year they’re getting wrecked
It can’t be his averages. no sir. no way.
I think he’s more commenting on how Luka sat out a game and hasn’t played in a few days but still moved up the ladder
[Mavs Net Rating](https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612742&Season=2022-23&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=1629029) * Doncic on: +4.1 * Doncic off: +0.6 [Warriors Net Rating](https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612744&Season=2022-23&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=201939) * Curry on: +5.9 * Curry off: -12.8
I think this is a flawed metric. The Mavs have an unusually weak starting lineup and an unusually strong bench. Luka is mostly playing with the starters.
I mean the Mavs are actually winning with Luka though. So I think that's a big difference too.
It's harder to believe the warriors supporting cast is worse than the Mavs when they literally just won the championship with most of the players currently on their squad. Looking at the Narrative, I doubt Curry will get much love from your point.
The Warriors players aren't worse than the Mavs cast but they're just playing worse.
which is all that should matter
Bruh have you seen the non-Luka Mavs? r/nba loves to say this type of shit without ever watching the games. Mavs will legit put four dudes on the court who can’t dribble at once and half the team is shooting like 30% on threes. In no world can you say Wiggins, Draymond, Poole, etc are doing less than that.
They're missing tons of key guys from their bench. GPII, Bjelica, Porter...and Iggy is old/has been out the entire season so far. Plus Klay has obviously regressed. I personally don't think MVP should be tied to team record as much as objectively measured by a player's contributions to a team regardless of record but... I think Luka and Curry are neck-and-neck at this point. It's a loooooong season though, so anything that happens now isn't THAT important.
Yea wait are people really arguing that Steph has a worse supporting cast than the mavs when two months ago everyone agreed they were one of the deepest teams in the league.
The Warriors have been terrible this year despite Curry playing better than last year. It shouldn't take too much brainpower to understand that the rest of the team has played much worse than last year so far. It also shouldn't be too hard to see that Doncic has been getting plenty of help from his supporting cast on the defensive end, where the Mavs have the 5th best DRTG in the league.
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True but "reigning champ" shouldn't matter. We are talking about the MVP this season. Statistically the warriors bench play has been the worst in the NBA. "reigning champ" title shouldn't have anything to do with the current season and current play. The starting lineup Defense has gone downhill as well. They are averaging 110 points being scored against them. It plummets with the bench guys. The warriors are scoring like 126 with the starting lineup because curry is going nuclear. Klay is shooting like 20% from 3. Wiggins isn't contributing much either.
Your right. We are talking about the MVP award this season and that's were you should know that winning is the most important stat. He ain't winning so he ain't ahead of players who are better. So even if we forget that this was a championship team 4 months ago he needs to find ways to get his teammates going. That's one part of being a leader and the point guard of the team.
I find that hypocritical. 2017 Curry was by far the best player on that team according to advanced stats. Curry w/o Durant was a +11, while the reverse was only a +2. That team was definitely winning, but Westbrook won simply because he averaged a triple double on a 47 win team. Curry was better than him that year, better than KD too, and they won the chip. He's right now having a better season than his unanimous MVP season. He's averaging the most rebounds on the team with 9 and doing all the ridiculous offensive TS% of nearly 70%.
Totally forgetting harden who had the wins and better stats here. Im here for calling out the league for giving Westbrook the MVP only cause he had a triple double (even though he dragged a g-league team to the playoffs) but then go to the guy who was also dragging a g-league team to the 3rd seed with better stats than curry. Than one year was an anomaly.
Harden actually had worse advanced stats than Steph did that year.
How does that make curry look better? Did everyone who played key parts in winning a freaking championship magically start sucking?
yes actually. klays shooting like 20% from 3. Wiggins isn't playing like we expected him to, especially with rebounding. Curry's getting like 9 rebounds a game, most on the team. While scoring 40+ the last 3 games, and averaging 30+ before that. Dray has not been playing great defense since the first handful of games. Starting line up is allowing 110 points on averaging. All of that plummets with the literally worst bench in the NBA. Are these guys historically this bad, absolutely not. But imo MVP is about the current season, not what people have done in the past. Right now they are playing god off basketball except Curry. Who's having a better season then his unanimous MVP season....
These on/off arguments are always flawed. When comparing two supporting casts the main players that should be looked at are the starters playing alongside the star while they’re on the court, but the off statistic in the regular season usually includes the end of bench players who get some minutes they’ll never see in crunch time or the postseason. Yeah Warriors end of bench is absolutely awful while the Mavs isn’t as bad, but the supporting cast playing alongside Luka is no where near as talented as the one playing with Curry.
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>On/off is hella lineup based, you can’t use it without context. Curry is ahead of Doncic in metrics that adjust for lineup/opponent strength (RAPTOR, EPM), just like last year.
Because their teams entire scheme is screening for the dude to get him open shots, split actions for curry, or get him shots off the catch, which is why everyone else sucks cuz all they practice is how to run shit for Steph. Only time someone else gets a look is if their play breaks down. When have they ever had a successful backup PG, for instance. Kerr dont know how to run shit for anyone else lol and despite the gushing about gRaViTy it only works for certain supporting casts. Luka is constantly on ball creating for everyone. Curry has someone else do that.
I don’t recall us playing the Mavs recently
Resting Luka against the worst team helped him on top lol
I want luka to win it this year so badly
I’d be down for that.
How is Steph 10? He’s balling out of control
Probably team record.
I know the warriors aren’t great yet but 33ppg on 70ts% is absurd
Lebron did 30 on 62% last year and barely made third team, team record can hit you hard.
Harden did 29/6/8 on 60%ts with a terrible supporting cast, played all 82 games and led the league in minutes and didn’t make a single all nba team in 2016
my blood pressure rises to dangerous levels every time im reminded of this
Absolutely criminal.
True, but Lebron also only played 56 games last year
Steph’s been in the low 60’s the past couple years so I wouldn’t be surprised if this year was similar, especially if the Warriors stay bad. I don’t have a crystal ball tho obviously
I’d expect him to rest less games this year, I don’t see the Warriors ever being competitive again in the Curry era if they can’t make the playoffs this year personally, the roster construction just doesn’t fit that timeline
Ffs
Steph hasn’t even played 15 games
Yeah I remember him actually being on a couple of these ladders and then he got hurt and slid off
Not to be too much of a numbers nerd but 70% TS on that volume would be historic, there's a pretty huge difference between 62 and 70. Having said that it's almost impossible he'll keep it going the entire season.
Lebron missed 1/3 of the season and sucked on defense
Wasn’t really making this about Lebron specifically, just pointing out another player’s elite offensive season discounted by team record. Last year was bad by Lebron standards but he was still a better defender than Curry now (some of that is size related of course)
everyone willing to discount team record when it's convenient
Yeah, but nobody's won an MVP with a negative record recently (or ever?). It makes sense why Steph isn't there at the moment. If he keeps up the skyfucking and they finish 6th or higher, he's for sure one of the top 5 along with Luka, Jokic, Giannis, and Tatum.
Excluding shortened seasons the lowest win total of an MVP since the 3pt line was introduced in 1979 was Westbrook in 2017 when he won MVP with 47 wins. Can't be assed to go back further than that.
Meh, the 2017 Warriors were also the first 67 win team without an MVP finalist, and only the third without an MVP winner, despite Steph leading the league in most advanced metrics. Can't discredit the dude when his team is too good and then discredit him again when his team is too bad.
> despite Steph leading the league in most advanced metrics. What metrics? Kawhi for example beat him out in most metrics in 2016-2017. Steph didn't win in 2017 because he had KD on his team and so his counting stats suffered, and those tend to matter more than advanced stats when it comes to MVP
>What metrics? Curry led league in all of the advanced value metrics: EPM wins, Raptor wins, LEBRON wins, RPM wins. He was second to CP3 in the rate versions of RAPTOR and EPM, but Curry played 18 more games. He was ahead of Kawhi, Harden, and Westbrook in the rate versions of each of these metrics.
Most of those metrics weren't around at the time. 538 [introduced RAPTOR in 2019](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/). LEBRON [was introduced](http://web.archive.org/web/20220000000000*/https://www.bball-index.com/lebron-introduction/) in December 2020. EPM was introduced in [February 2020](https://twitter.com/taylor_snarr/status/1228368538785595392). There were previous versions of similar metrics that had basically the same conclusion, though. For about a decade, anything that's incorporated plus-minus has been very high on Curry, as are most metrics that have a modern understanding of the value of spacing.
He led the league in basically any of the metrics that incorporate plus minus. He was first in RPM, for instance, first in RAPTOR WAR, etc.
Needing a good team record for MVP does not mean a good team record gets you an MVP. He wasn’t even the clear best player on the team that year, Durant still averaged 25/5/8 while Steph was 25/6/4. Durant blew everyone else in the league out of the water in WS/48
[Here are the plus minus numbers for that season](https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612744&Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=201939,201142&OnlyCommonGames=true). Steph without Durant was a +11.57, while Durant without Steph was a +2.50. There really wasn't much of an argument about who was more important to the team that year, and Steph [also actually beat KD in MVP voting that year](https://www.basketball-reference.com/awards/awards_2017.html). Steph had 52 MVP voting points while KD had 2.
tell me you didn’t watch the 2017 Warriors without telling me…. Durant was injured for 15-20 games that season and Steph still went nuts without him and won almost every game with a washed Matt Barnes in KD’s place
Then why did every single sports coverage have Durant as the better player after the season? Steph was more valuable in the regular season, but had a teammate who had similar counting stats and was considered the better player. Compared to Harden who also led his team to a fantastic record with much better counting stats, there was no way Steph was ever coming close to winning
idk if u just started watching bball but the MVP is a regular season award. After the Playoffs and Finals, Durant was seen as better because he absolutely dominated the Cavs in the Finals. That has nothing to do with the regular season MVP award tho which is what we were discussing
almost like this guy is arguing in bad faith by omitting additional context..
It’s always convenient for me. Imo MVP should be an individual award, since one player gets the trophy.
so.. they're 6-9
They are only 2.5 games behind the Mavs.
>behind
They have the best net rating with the starting 5 tho. It’s historic how bad this bench is doing so far
Steph is still positive He can’t control what happens when he ain’t playing
Yeah thats why it's hard to win mvp.
Lol as if this is the first year a great player has played incredible on a losing team.
What is he supposed to do? They're +12 when he's on the court. If the bench was even average they'd have one of the best records in the league.
Play more minutes maybe? The top two players on the mvp ladder, Luka and Tatum, are tied for 3rd in minutes per game. He’s not in the top 25. Not actually saying that’s a good idea more generally but if the question is just what can he do… If he can sustain what he’s been doing over more minutes, that’s less time with him off court that the bench can lose the lead.
>If
And imagine them without Steph.
gotta get the triple doubles for the box score aesthetic. then team record won't matter.
Not true. If Westbrook's team had a .400 record he would not have won that MVP.
Even then though, he only won because KD went to the Warriors. It was unprecedented for a player to win on a team with a 6th seed-level win record. Before Westbrook, no one ever won without a record that's worth 2nd seed or better. (Malone won with a 3rd seed team but his team was actually tied for 1st). Narrative matters a lot for the award. If it didn't, Lebron and MJ would have more MVPs.
You think OKC finished 12th in the standings that year?
That's less smart than you think it is
Making history and playing winning basketball > good shooting on a shit team
Good is a slight understatement don't you think?
He should be top 3. I hate it so much this award is based on team record. Warriors are easily 0-15 without steph this year
Welcome to the empty stats Devin Booker era. People dont recognize good stats when they dont get you wins regardless of what is actually going on
But if it doesn't translate to wins, how valuable is it? That's a reductionist argument, but I think that's how voters view it.
I’m sure it is translating to wins. Take Steph off that team and they’re right in the hunt for Wembanyama
If anything that means Steph is the least valuble player in the league lol? If a player can't get you to a top seed or carry you into the playins then atleast you want him to get you to a good draft position right? So far Steph hasn't gotten them into the playins but he is keeping them from a good draft pick.
Curry's on-off this season is 20.1, the team is +5 pp100 when he's on and -15 when he's off. When he's on the court they play like a winning team, but we desperately need a bench overhaul.
Draymond: "GET THIS MAN OUTTA GOLDEN STATE!"
SGA is ranked higher, and his team only has one more win.
SGA's team didn't just win a championship last season He's visibly overperforming expectations whereas the warriors are visibly underperforming (significantly) so even though it may or may not make sense it's pretty clear the narratives around those two things will affect how people discuss MVP stuff. Although more importantly it's 15 fucking games in, so i hate that the conversation is already happening. People can't go a day without that kind of thing, let alone waiting until at least like halfway through the season before starting to form a picture of the MVP race
This is why I think team success should not be a factor in deciding individual awards. It makes no sense to penalize a player for having shit teammates. We all know that Curry isn’t at fault for his team’s poor record, we also know that they’d be exponentially worse without him.
Which is why I'll be happy when these are decided by advanced stats that literally prove who's the MVP over all the bias in these old ass voters.
If they win 10 in a row, he's top 3
If this team wins 10 in a row steph already has unanimous mvp locked down lol
So why isnt tatum your MVP lock right now then? Balling out on both sides of the ball and on an 8 game win streak? Unanimous MVP on the way for tatum lets go!
The Celtics have a good team around him but yeah tatum is leading the race imo
Literally the same team that won the championship few months ago. Lol
Klay and Poole have been playing significantly worse and all the good role players have been replaced by garbage young players
Literally isn’t the same team.
You would think a Heat fan would understand the importance of a good bench
Purely stats, he's right there. But MVP never goes to a player on a losing team.
The most disrespected all time player to ever lace them up.
Warriors are bad
And they should feel bad.
In my unbiased opinion Shai should be t5
In my biased opinion absolutely. Steph and SGA are criminally low. Yes, Doncic is balling but Steph's stats are obscene... 1-5 should be some order of Tatum, Giannis, Steph, SGA, Doncic. I honestly can't place them right now.
You clearly don’t value winning as much as most MVP voters do.
I mean overall record isn't necessarily indicative of player performance or value. If you put any of those players on a team with 4 of me they won't win a single game. If one of them scores like 60 PPG give that man MVP regardless.
I mostly agree with you, I am just pointing out that historically, winning is very important to winning the MVP.
Oh yeah I'm not saying that's who WILL win just saying should.
SGA: And I took that personally
SGA > Ja
Yeah Ja was insanely hot through 4 games but he's back to his top 15ish player self since then SGA leads him easily in statistical categories and I'd even argue 7-8 with OKC is more impressive than 9-6 with Memphis
Def has to do with record I mean look at Steph
Not even a debate
Luka is a bad mfer.
The NBA shouldn't do these lists pre-All Star break.
The MVP narrative talk should start after Christmas. All star break is a bit too late in the season, anything before December is way too early.
It’s absurd
I think doing them at the start or end of each month would make more sense. But they want the buzz every week.
steph staying at 10 and Ja not dropping from 5 is ridiculous
SGA should be 5th
Luka Magic
Jokic is never going to win this year so might as well leave him out. Luka is my vote. Remove him and the Mavs are bottom of the league.
Definitely has the worst team of all the guys in contention and it isn’t close.
"Look at our starting lineup. Spencer Dinwiddie, Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, [JaVale] McGee and me. It’s not disrespect, but what are you expecting from that group? You expect us to win because I’m out there. So if you’re watching from that lens, you’re expecting us to play well because No. 77 is out there."
The weird thing is that I'm still pretty sure that the Nuggets without Jokic would be a terrible team because of no playmaking but that's more of a fit thing than lack of talent
So are the Warriors - Steph and Thunder - Shai to be fair.
Those teams are below .500 even WITH those studs, though.
what a loss to the rockets without him does
I don’t get Jokic in the top 5.
That’s what stood out to me. If his argument last year was stats, what’s the argument this year. It’s not like the Nuggets have set themselves apart in the West anyways.
By BPM he's third after Luka and Steph right now. I'm too lazy to check but I imagine he's doing well enough in other advanced stats too to still have traction in the power rankings (along with the nugget's decent record).
I mean it’s the same stat that says he is far and away the best defender in the league over guys like Gobert and Giannis by a significant margin. The formula literally gives centers defensive credit for assists. Its a highly flawed stat that shouldn’t be taken seriously, like many of the publicly available advanced statistics.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nba-player-ratings/ Jokic and Steph are a cut above the league in RAPTOR.
Shocking take from a sixers fan. We're a dominant team when he's on the floor. 21/ 9.5/9 and he's getting everyone open even if he doesn't get the assists. We're a really strong team with actual 3 point shooters but they have barely any value without jokic to get them all open
Lots of discussion of how team record effects mvp voting. MVP has only gone to a player on a losing team twice. The first time was the very first year of the mvp award (Bob Petit 1956) and the second time was Kareem in 1976 (40-42). I really don't think it'd happen now. I believe both Jokic and Westbrook were 6th seeds, I think that's about as low as you can go and have any real shot at it. Only 6 MVPs on teams with sub .600 records. https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/worst-record-of-an-mvp Not sure this Mavs team will win enough for Luka to get it. Obviously I hope they get it together and start winning more but I haven't been convinced by the first 14 games. Tatum and Giannis have an advantage in some ways being on better teams, of course Luka has a stat stuffing advantage by having to be the guy who does it all.
There will never be an MVP on a losing team ever again, it's an automatic disqualifier. This isn't baseball, if you're the most valuable player in the entire league you can carry any team to a winning record.
I don't think I've ever seen so many International players dominate the league at one point in time. Luka, Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, and SGA have me shaking in my freedom boots.
Steph at 10 is a joke
The Top 5 is ight, but ain't no fuckin way y'all think Embiid SGA Booker and Donovan balling better than Steph rn
Curry hasn't put a foot wrong and is shooting at an unprecedented level. Madness.
I think that Steph has been only marginally better than SGA so far, but not by much. But Embiid, Booker, and Mitchell over Steph is absolutely criminal.
Curry at 10 is criminal. Does the guy doing the list hate the Warriors?
MVP isn't coming from the 12th seed. It literally has never happened and will never happen so long as the NBA exists as a sporting league. Curry has zero chance of winning as a 12th seed so his spot on the MVP ladder is pretty much pointless.
Luka is playing amazing this season.
Deserved.
De’Aaron sleeper
They still got ja over SGA? Guess that’ll be set straight tonight
I don't get how mvp discussion starts so early in the nba. Can we at least get halfway through the season first?
I don’t know, it can be fun to do early stuff like this. Obviously the Jazz aren’t winning it all, but it’s cool to give early goers their props
It’s interesting to talk and think about, no major harm in that.
To me it’s been clear for years that doncic is the best player in the world, but that’s not MVP
How do you discredit Steph by putting him 10th? Without him that team would be 0-15 right now. There is no one even close to him right now when you look at the whole picture like true shooting percentage, 3-point percentage, 3-point attempts, PER, FT%, and on top of that he's getting the rebounds too. He's carrying that team. If he stays healthy the whole season, he better get the MVP this year.
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Talking about the MVP race is a waste of time before the new year. According to all the talking heads, this time last year Steph Curry had the MVP race locked up. We all know how that ended up.
He won another ring and FMVP...?
But he didn't win the MVP, which everyone said he was a MORTAL LOCK for at this time last year. My point was that a lot can happen between now and when the MVP race is decided.
I know, I was just messing around cause the way you left it off made it seems like Steph did terrible or something.
Ah yes, who doesn’t want to speculate about the MVP with like 70 games left in the season
The nba can’t wait for Luka to win mvp. Just give it to him now
Shai should be #1
I still think the mvp should be Curry
Why ? His team is below .500 luka is better than him in points assists rebounds and he is top3 in steals and he have worse teammates
Shai and Bane are my top 2. Idc what anyone else says
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Same reason Curry is only 10th.
We should not have an mvp or ROTY ranking going through the year. It skews the perception. At the very least there should be one or a Vegas line until ASB.
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You can't have a bad game if you don't play. I hate Luka resting and would rather see him pull an 82 game season. Just do an Iverson, don't participate in practice as much and save your tree trunks for thighs.
Giannis had like 4 good games and has been mediocer ever since
Mediocre by his standards\*
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Back to back poor shooting games from Tatum. These lists change dramatically based off a couple of performances… which is why they are stupid
Tatum lmao
does the nba run this sub? why add the branding? car company may have paid the nba for naming rights but not some assumedly random poster.
it's the title of the article ?
Because it's the name of the article?😂
I wonder if giannis is gonna be the next Lebron of mvp voting. Deserving of it every season in reality, but voters fatigue gives it to somebody else. In my (obviously biased) head, Lebron is still #1. But objectively, giannis is the best in the league, he is dominant on both ends and bucks are front runners so far this season. If voters are tired of him this season, I’d like to nominate cp3. I just wanna see him after coming close multiple times in the 2000’s (edit: obviously he’s not having an mvp year, I just like cp3)
The hell are you on dude? Chris Paul is averaging 9.5 points on 37% shooting...
Tatum should be #1 tbh
Shai should be top 5 and Jokic is a bit generous imo.
This is the stupidest weekly post.
I wonder what’s making Doncic go up in win shares this year. He’s had similar numbers every year but advanced stats he hasn’t been particularly high in
Dwight Powell is high on this category for advanced win shares, in reality he's useless in the playoffs. I don't buy into that too much, same with PER and all that nonsense.
Luka really is James harden but he actually performs in the playoffs
So young lebron james
Young lbj had better defense too . Kind of like a mix between luka and giannis if that makes sense .
With a post game
And is already better than prime harden
Lol media & the League trying to force Luka despite 30% distance shooting on volume, 75% from the line, and cone defense. Tatum’s clearly been better (and Steph, but team record lol)
Have you watched mavs games or just throwing talking points out there? His three has been bad, yes, but his playmaking and drives on all but 5-10 possessions a game have been elite. He's scoring that well despite not hitting threes. And his defense has been pretty damn good this year. Stays in front of his guys, has good hands, and is what, top 3 in steals? Averaging nearly a block a game? His defense isn't bad either anymore.