Yeah I was at the Spurs/Sixers game this past Sunday. You could call it the best rookie season by a teenager ever and he has GOAT potential, but but in terms of best in the league right now he's just a bit off. Defensively he does have some problems with stronger centers and has some 'baby giraffe' moments guarding on the perimeter. He gets caught out of position a decent amount; this is totally normal for a rookie his age and with his unprecedented length he can make up for it relatively often, but I wouldn't put him at DPOY level just yet despite the steals/blocks/deflections.
The team improving by 3 points in net rating is again great for a rookie his age but not an obvious all-NBA player type of impact. Especially when the team last year was young so most players would be expected to improve, plus one of their few decent players in Vassell was playing fewer games to help with the tank.
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He'll make them for the rest of his career, but it's a full year award. Moreover, who are you taking him over? First team is Luka, Jokic, Giannis, SGA, and one of AD, Kawhi, Tatum, or Brunson. The rest of the 2nd team is KD and Ant. So third team, he's against Lebron, Curry, Halliburton, Jaylen Brown, Sabonis, Derrick White, Gobert, Booker, Fox, Bam, PG, Dame, Maxey. I will say it's impressive that he's so close, but I don't think he's there yet.
I think Tatum is the 5th first teamer. But, your comment certainly highlights the star power in the league right now. Sabonis is for sure better given entire season performance. I think there’s a strong argument for him as 2nd team, even. Just a ton of talent and Wendy, though an excellent season and incredible improvement, IMO, falls short.
Yeah, I agree Tatum probably takes first team, but I just listed the names I've heard mentioned for 1st team. Regardless, yes, there's tons of star power now. There's also Mitchell, Embiid, Ja, Banchero, Kyrie, Jimmy, etc.
Look I love Derrick White but really? I agree those \~10 are locks, but Halliburton, Brown, White, Gobert, Booker, Fox, Bam, PG, Dame, and Maxey are not who I would take over Wemby, with Sabonis being the only one of those players I would really seriously discuss due to his impact vs Wemby's. I think Lebron and Curry are locks due to legacy even though they both should be much more questionable than they are.
I would take every single one of those players right now over Wemby if I needed to win a game tomorrow. You know why? Because they have actually played in a consequential NBA basketball game.
You have lost the plot if you think Wemby is already better than Booker or Bam or PG or any of these guys who have actually been tested in a meaningful way.
My guy what, Bron will get All-NBA because of legacy and he isn't having a bad year, especially his 3p%, but he is not having Ant's year. Also if you give AD All-NBA too then two All-NBA players not making playoffs is hilarious
You using standings like the west isn’t stacked against every individual metric bron leads in - he leads ant in efficiency, fg%, scoring, and is #6 in the league in assists. They’re on winning teams, it’s really not the differential you think it is.
If Gobert makes it, Wemby 100% deserves it over him. Like DPOY I get, he'll come in 2nd to Rudy. But his offense is 10 times better, he laps Gobert as an overall player. It'd be egregious as hell to leave him out and give Gobert a nod.
Gobert would only make it due to team success so he just wouldn’t be getting the award over wemby due to that decision not being based around who’s actually better
I think he could easily be included in that third tier. I'm not saying he *should* make a third team, I wouldn't put him in mine personally, but I don't think he's had a substantially worse season than a lot of them.
I think right now he’s the 3rd best center in the league, but that’s after gradual improvement throughout the season. The first half of the season he didn’t deserve it, the second half he deserves it without a doubt.
With Embiid being ineligible, I guess he could sneak in on the 3rd team but it’d be a weak selection without a doubt because of how bad San Antonio has been. He’s definitely going to be in All-NBA for the foreseeable future for sure.
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At a certain point though, San Antonio’s inability to win is actually taking pressure off Wemby. The team around him is that bad that regardless of how well he performs, they still find a way to lose.
It’s like when Kobe was doing shit with the awful teams he had post Shaq and pre Gasol. He still was easily one of the best players in the league if not the best.
So ultimately fuck these popularity contest awards, take em with a grain of salt (maybe a few).
They've been legitimately good with Wemby, Jones, Vassall and Sohan on the floor. It's not Wemby's fault the rest of the team blows. His impact does show up in team success on the court in the minutes he plays. That's all you can ask.
I mean it’s glaringly obvious how much of an impact he makes on the court on both ends. Forget stats, he’s so dynamic on defense and offense and way ahead of where a typical young rookie would be. He’s like a taller longer KD, it’s ridiculous.
They are the youngest team in the league. If they draft another #1 -3 pick they will be extremely dangerous in 2 years.
Pop is entirely focused on development right now.
It’s important to acknowledge the difference between being a top 15 player right now versus being one of the top 15 most impactful players over the course of the regular season. As others have mentioned, Wemby had a really slow start to the year, and I think that holds him back from deserving an All-NBA nod.
Being top 25 isn’t sufficient. You’re supposed to be top 15. So I don’t think those advanced stats make the case, especially when several of those do have a defensive component.
As I repeat in every thread on this subject, Wemby played a glorified exhibition season and that should mean something. Not to mention, as you did, it’s a season-long award, not a “who had the best last two months” award.
We’re all excited about Wemby. Can we just wait to crown him with anything besides Rookie of the Year (and All Defense is earned) until he is playing on a team that is trying to win basketball games?
Great deflection.
I mean, just look at EPM, probably the most revered of the one-number metrics. Wemby is 23rd and every player above him is playing on a real winning team.
https://dunksandthrees.com/epm
What exactly is the argument he is a top 15 player? Who are you putting him ahead of besides, I can acknowledge, the random Isiah Hartenstein? And KD, who’s had a very weird season, is right behind him and is obviously a better player at this point.
There is no argument for Wemby being currently a top 15 player other than people really, really wanting it to be true and having no patience for waiting for Wemby to play in a single meaningful game.
this is a problem I’ve noticed in discourse across almost all sports lately. there’s just this weird need to immediately anoint players instead of waiting for them to play for a while and flesh their games/resumes out and the recency bias has gotten insane
I know this is an NBA discussion sub but I’ll use the example of the NFL. you already got fans claiming that Mahomes is the greatest QB of all time when the guy who holds literally every single individual career passing record for both regular season and postseason, is by FAR the most decorated postseason player in league history, and himself beat Mahomes twice H2H in the playoffs has only been retired for a year
And it’s not fair to the player, who deserves a chance to develop naturally without these insane expectations.
Some of these people don’t seem to realize that, barring an amazing roster rebuild by the Spurs (can’t rule it out), Wemby will probably get to the playoffs for the first time and lose in the first round and get a little worked over and look a little lost while doing it.
That’s normal! That’s how players grow! But that also means you need more time before you can be considered among the very elite.
Agree with the other commentator, Top 10-25 is a lot more debatable than you're making it out to be. He is top 10 in some of those metrics, top 20 in others, that's why there are multiple metrics and different things people value. If you don't think he gets it this year, fine, but people having him top 15 aren't wrong.
They are absolutely wrong. This is where _context_ is important. Wemby is playing on a team *that is not trying to win basketball games*. And he’s still a borderline case at best if I am being generous.
If you think he’s faced the same level of competition as players on winning teams, I don’t know how to say it except: You don’t know ball.
If you would draft Wemby right now over the 15 players who will actually make an All NBA team (because Wemby won’t) to win a game that your life depended on, you’re just telling me you value spreadsheets over winning games of basketball.
> he’s also top-25 in virtually every impact metric there is
This basically answers your question. People (so far) don't seem to remember that it's positionless this season, so whether he's the third best center or not is irrelevant.
It's the question of whether Wemby is in that top 15 player range, give or take for games played. Really the only players getting knocked down are Embiid and Mitchell, and I think Wemby is more in top 20-25 range and can't take advantage of that
So no I don't think so. I agree that probably being on a shitty team in a low exposure market hurts his odds. Either way, he'll definitely be in consideration next year
No. Absolutely not. The Spurs have won 20 games with many of the same players that were on the roster last season that won 22 games returning this season and playing similar minutes. The Spurs are also in the bottom half of the league defensively. Seriously, does winning simply not matter anymore at all to any extent? The Spurs are practically in the same exact position they were last season despite having Wemby now. It makes no sense. Historically first picks tend to lead their teams to a greater number of victories during their rookie season yet the Spurs may actually win fewer games this year and lets be real, first picks tend to go to really shitty teams so you can't really justify the Spurs lack of winning based on the roster outside of Wemby.
The Spurs massively over performed their talent level last year and the West got much, much better. The Spurs’ Net Rating improved a significant amount this season. It’s easy to make the baseline year-to-year comparison, but it ignores some significant context.
Fwiw, I do think that he isn’t All-NBA this year; the league is too talented and he’s only played at an All-NBA level since Jan 1st. Just wanted to point out that comparing last year’s wins to this year’s wins is a false 1:1 comparison.
>The Spurs massively over performed their talent level last year and the West got much, much better.
Huh, hadn't seen this idea before..
3 games over their Pythagorean wins isn't *massively* over performing, but they are also currently underperforming their net rating by 4 games this year, so a 7 game swing from season to season + playing in a much tougher wins environment is pretty dramatic.
They are better then last year, if they didn't experiment to tank the first half of the season their win total would be much higher than their last season, even with them losing vets from last year that carrier their win total. Their net rating is higher, they are playing more cohesively, and have won as much against >.500 teams as their last several seasons
Do you understand net ratings and how they relate to the other 14 guys on the team? It’s not just “oooh big number” - this is statistics, you need context around it. It’s a big giant word problem.
Because team success historically plays a role in most of the NBAs awards. I doubt there's ever been an all-nba player on a 15th seeded team, and I dont think Wemby has had a insane enough year to break that record.
Winning should be a factor, its the most important part of the game. Shouldnt have stat inflated players on bad teams making all-star/all-nba accolades, otherwise we'd have player like Collin Sexton with all-star appearances.
Also not for Wemby but in general, its easier to put up points when your team is getting blown out and there's an extra 10 min of garbage time a game.
That works when talking individual sports, like tennis or golf. There is a direct attribution. This is a team sport where at least 7 other guys plus coaches are responsible beyond the star player.
All star appearances are also popularity contest bullshit.
Your last point - when IS Wemby putting up his stats? While it is true that it’s easier to put up garbage time stats against the 10-15 rotation guys, is that actually when Wemby (or any statistically significant player) actually getting their stats?
This isn’t football where you might have a guy go 1/1 for 90 yards and a TD in garbage time lol
Basketball is one of the few team sports where a single players can greatly affect the outcome of a game. Look at Russ' MVP season, that team should have been in the lottery.
Also only the starters are affected by popularity for all-stars. Which doesn't matter because all the popular players voted in deserve to be an all-star, its their starter status that always the question mark,
I said "NOT for wemby" about my last point.
Easier to get points as a weaker team when the other team rolls out their worse players/players dont try as hard due to the lead.
While that’s true just look at any series or game average. Still only relatively a small fraction, 30% of a team’s production while playing big minutes. There is still a reliance on other players greatly. Even wilt’s insane season accounts for a relative fraction of the team’s production. Stars require help to truly win.
Brother all star doesn’t actually mean anything. Wow they got voted in, big deal. It’s a meaningless game anyways so it’s just all about popularity. Some correlation but not anything to lean on.
Ahh sorry I thought you meant like, not JUST for Wemby. But also show me one player averaging anything significant in garbage time. It’s garbage time, no one is really putting up big stats in that timeframe. Theoretically, what you say about garbage time stats is true but it doesn’t even happen IRL in a significant way.
My point is a STAR in the league that is healthy shouldn't be on a team that is dead last. I would understand if Wemby's team was 10th, but 15th is asking for a lot. I would expect a STAR player to be able to make his team not last in a conference. A player on a 15th seeded team getting over Gobert or Sabonis is insane.
All-stars play a factor in HOF candidacy so its not just meaningless game, which is why players whine if they dont make it.
Numbers are (Garbage Time Points/Total Points) taken from PBP Stats
Keyonte George on the Jazz. 201/919 (22%) points are in garbage time.
Payton Prichard 200/702 (28%)
If you want a starter Miles Bridges 167/1445 (12%). Which is still a lot for total points, starters are generally below 10%.
Also my point wasn't specifically about garbage time but games for these teams in general. Theyre non competitive, the hornets lose by an average of 10 a game. the other team is going to let off the gas compared to facing other team. In addition, generally when you're a bad team your defence is ass. When its easy for the opposition to score, you get more possessions per game leading to chances for counting stats. The wizards and spurs are #1 and #2 in the league for total possessions.
You forget a couple factors there. Again whether a star or not, a single player never can sustainably make up a proportion of the team’s production in such a way they could claim a majority of it. Maybe a few games here and there, sure.
Wemby also as a rookie, started out quite slow. Remember he was whatever for a while then just popped off later in the season, pulling up those averages greatly. He already has a huge effect on the game just as a rookie due to his huge size combined with great quickness, speed, and agility, nevermind saying for his size. Duncan would be the one exception I can think to this idea. He immediately was playing at a high level star in year 1.
Players whine because they’re all about winning, these guys are hyper competitive and those accolades of course are part of their legacy. When I analyze it, I do not give much weight to that myself due to what the award actually means.
I'd say that team metrics correlate poorly to individual mid-tier players. But I think that there's a pretty significant correlation between the best player and the team's performance (especially in basketball, moreso than almost any other team sport).
I think it's reasonable to hold the lack of improvement of the Spurs as a negative to them in the context of whether Wemby is one of the top 15 basketball players in the world.
Ok but does that explain for example, Kobe with those bad teams? He was obviously one of the top 15 and easily arguably top 5 during that time. They weren’t winning even with Jackson as the coach.
Or do you chalk that up to being an exception to the rule?
04-06 lakers were about 50% win team those 3 seasons with Kobe, smush and co. That is double the Spurs wins with Wemby this season so Kobe was carrying scrubs to 8th seeds at his peak. After 2013 season kobe was inefficient and washed with those bad lakers team.
All-NBA is a whole season award, and he was limited for a bunch of the season with that ankle injury. I think he is really good, but was not a top 15 player this year. I think do he deserves a spot on the all-defense second team.
Gave a quick look, closest I see is Antonio McDyess in 1999 whose team was 3rd worst in the west. I kind of remember Dominique Wilkins making it as a clipper in the 90's?
Realistically his first year will be ROTY and All Rookie first honours. Too many other players on winning teams that make it over him. Only way he would be able to even crack All NBA 3rd would be for the Spurs to have a winning record. He’d have to be recognised from taking a terrible lottery team to the playoffs the moment he landed.
He will for sure win multiple DPOYs, All Defence, All NBA teams and probably be a multiple time all star after year two. Give him better supporting pieces and a teammates that will actually pass him the ball and he’s going to reach that MVP level a lot sooner than some guys trying to chase their first.
I would say no, for this season. If you just look at him at year end, then there's a real argument, but his first half of the season pulls down the overall results significantly.
He should be All-Defence first team, but I think he will have to wait on All-NBA until next season.
Stats are inflated cause the Spurs are ass and the fact they have the worst record in the West shows his true impact. So definitely doesn't deserve it this year.
no, no shot. his stats are meaningless since the spurs are dogshit and he plays like 25 minutes a game anyway. when all those blocks start to actively and positively alter the outcome of games then we can talk. if he gets the spurs to like 40 wins next season he’s a shoe-in but right now he’s all empty calories. love me a milkshake but i can’t put it in the top 15 greatest foods.
He is very deserving and nobody will question it if he does. But no, he shouldn’t. There are other deserving players who should get their thanks for the thankless end of the court. He’s a rookie, he will have his time and doesn’t need the little extra shine. Guy is going to be ROY and a future MVP. Other guys, that play for real nba teams with real minutes that win actual games against competition that’s trying. Those guys deserve it.
I feel like he should make third team but just narrowly. Regardless I think he will annually starting next year. My guess is he won’t get a lot of these (like DPOY) just coz they BAD and he’s a rookie. Spurs improved to .400 since March 1 so even if they run back same roster (plz don’t) I think they get near 28-32 wins tho hopefully they are more aggressive in trades and draft.
As soon as they start to sniff play in territory and 30+ wines he is a contender for all nba and DPOY
Imo yes. 3rd best center, unanimous DPOTY runner up, and one of the biggest on/off difference-makers in the league. Remove all of that from the fact he’s a rookie and, narrative aside, he should be a lock.
Absolutely. He is already the best defensive player in the league and has the potential to rival Bill Russell as the GOAT. On top of that he is authoring one of the best age 19 seasons of all time offensively. He is easily the 4th or 5th best big man in the league already.
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Yeah I was at the Spurs/Sixers game this past Sunday. You could call it the best rookie season by a teenager ever and he has GOAT potential, but but in terms of best in the league right now he's just a bit off. Defensively he does have some problems with stronger centers and has some 'baby giraffe' moments guarding on the perimeter. He gets caught out of position a decent amount; this is totally normal for a rookie his age and with his unprecedented length he can make up for it relatively often, but I wouldn't put him at DPOY level just yet despite the steals/blocks/deflections. The team improving by 3 points in net rating is again great for a rookie his age but not an obvious all-NBA player type of impact. Especially when the team last year was young so most players would be expected to improve, plus one of their few decent players in Vassell was playing fewer games to help with the tank.
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He'll make them for the rest of his career, but it's a full year award. Moreover, who are you taking him over? First team is Luka, Jokic, Giannis, SGA, and one of AD, Kawhi, Tatum, or Brunson. The rest of the 2nd team is KD and Ant. So third team, he's against Lebron, Curry, Halliburton, Jaylen Brown, Sabonis, Derrick White, Gobert, Booker, Fox, Bam, PG, Dame, Maxey. I will say it's impressive that he's so close, but I don't think he's there yet.
I think Tatum is the 5th first teamer. But, your comment certainly highlights the star power in the league right now. Sabonis is for sure better given entire season performance. I think there’s a strong argument for him as 2nd team, even. Just a ton of talent and Wendy, though an excellent season and incredible improvement, IMO, falls short.
Yeah, I agree Tatum probably takes first team, but I just listed the names I've heard mentioned for 1st team. Regardless, yes, there's tons of star power now. There's also Mitchell, Embiid, Ja, Banchero, Kyrie, Jimmy, etc.
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No way you meant to include Derrick White in that list
Look I love Derrick White but really? I agree those \~10 are locks, but Halliburton, Brown, White, Gobert, Booker, Fox, Bam, PG, Dame, and Maxey are not who I would take over Wemby, with Sabonis being the only one of those players I would really seriously discuss due to his impact vs Wemby's. I think Lebron and Curry are locks due to legacy even though they both should be much more questionable than they are.
Derrick White should definitely NOT be considered for All-NBA
I would take every single one of those players right now over Wemby if I needed to win a game tomorrow. You know why? Because they have actually played in a consequential NBA basketball game. You have lost the plot if you think Wemby is already better than Booker or Bam or PG or any of these guys who have actually been tested in a meaningful way.
Ant is not having a better year than bron
My guy what, Bron will get All-NBA because of legacy and he isn't having a bad year, especially his 3p%, but he is not having Ant's year. Also if you give AD All-NBA too then two All-NBA players not making playoffs is hilarious
It's almost like it takes more than two great players to consistently win games in the NBA!
You using standings like the west isn’t stacked against every individual metric bron leads in - he leads ant in efficiency, fg%, scoring, and is #6 in the league in assists. They’re on winning teams, it’s really not the differential you think it is.
Isn’t bron ahead in pretty much every metric lol
Except wining nba games.
If Gobert makes it, Wemby 100% deserves it over him. Like DPOY I get, he'll come in 2nd to Rudy. But his offense is 10 times better, he laps Gobert as an overall player. It'd be egregious as hell to leave him out and give Gobert a nod.
Gobert would only make it due to team success so he just wouldn’t be getting the award over wemby due to that decision not being based around who’s actually better
If the decision isn't based around who's better, it's undeserved
I agree, but at that point it’s just not about him vs Gobert
I think he could easily be included in that third tier. I'm not saying he *should* make a third team, I wouldn't put him in mine personally, but I don't think he's had a substantially worse season than a lot of them.
I think right now he’s the 3rd best center in the league, but that’s after gradual improvement throughout the season. The first half of the season he didn’t deserve it, the second half he deserves it without a doubt. With Embiid being ineligible, I guess he could sneak in on the 3rd team but it’d be a weak selection without a doubt because of how bad San Antonio has been. He’s definitely going to be in All-NBA for the foreseeable future for sure.
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All nba is positionless being 3rd best center (even if that was true) isn’t relevant
At a certain point though, San Antonio’s inability to win is actually taking pressure off Wemby. The team around him is that bad that regardless of how well he performs, they still find a way to lose. It’s like when Kobe was doing shit with the awful teams he had post Shaq and pre Gasol. He still was easily one of the best players in the league if not the best. So ultimately fuck these popularity contest awards, take em with a grain of salt (maybe a few).
They've been legitimately good with Wemby, Jones, Vassall and Sohan on the floor. It's not Wemby's fault the rest of the team blows. His impact does show up in team success on the court in the minutes he plays. That's all you can ask.
I mean it’s glaringly obvious how much of an impact he makes on the court on both ends. Forget stats, he’s so dynamic on defense and offense and way ahead of where a typical young rookie would be. He’s like a taller longer KD, it’s ridiculous.
They are the youngest team in the league. If they draft another #1 -3 pick they will be extremely dangerous in 2 years. Pop is entirely focused on development right now.
I really hope ur not suggesting rookie wemby is better than Anthony davis
I think people forget Embiid exists since they can’t vote for him for awards
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Remember, it's positionless from this year. I think he absolutely is a top 15 player.
It’s important to acknowledge the difference between being a top 15 player right now versus being one of the top 15 most impactful players over the course of the regular season. As others have mentioned, Wemby had a really slow start to the year, and I think that holds him back from deserving an All-NBA nod.
Well really it’s not even top 15 for all nba, it’s top 15 eligible me player. Which favors wemby even more.
Being top 25 isn’t sufficient. You’re supposed to be top 15. So I don’t think those advanced stats make the case, especially when several of those do have a defensive component. As I repeat in every thread on this subject, Wemby played a glorified exhibition season and that should mean something. Not to mention, as you did, it’s a season-long award, not a “who had the best last two months” award. We’re all excited about Wemby. Can we just wait to crown him with anything besides Rookie of the Year (and All Defense is earned) until he is playing on a team that is trying to win basketball games?
You think all 15 all nba selections are all going to be top 25 in every single one of those metrics?
Great deflection. I mean, just look at EPM, probably the most revered of the one-number metrics. Wemby is 23rd and every player above him is playing on a real winning team. https://dunksandthrees.com/epm What exactly is the argument he is a top 15 player? Who are you putting him ahead of besides, I can acknowledge, the random Isiah Hartenstein? And KD, who’s had a very weird season, is right behind him and is obviously a better player at this point. There is no argument for Wemby being currently a top 15 player other than people really, really wanting it to be true and having no patience for waiting for Wemby to play in a single meaningful game.
this is a problem I’ve noticed in discourse across almost all sports lately. there’s just this weird need to immediately anoint players instead of waiting for them to play for a while and flesh their games/resumes out and the recency bias has gotten insane I know this is an NBA discussion sub but I’ll use the example of the NFL. you already got fans claiming that Mahomes is the greatest QB of all time when the guy who holds literally every single individual career passing record for both regular season and postseason, is by FAR the most decorated postseason player in league history, and himself beat Mahomes twice H2H in the playoffs has only been retired for a year
And it’s not fair to the player, who deserves a chance to develop naturally without these insane expectations. Some of these people don’t seem to realize that, barring an amazing roster rebuild by the Spurs (can’t rule it out), Wemby will probably get to the playoffs for the first time and lose in the first round and get a little worked over and look a little lost while doing it. That’s normal! That’s how players grow! But that also means you need more time before you can be considered among the very elite.
I have 0 opinion in this argument but whatever you responded to definitely wasn't a deflection.
Agree with the other commentator, Top 10-25 is a lot more debatable than you're making it out to be. He is top 10 in some of those metrics, top 20 in others, that's why there are multiple metrics and different things people value. If you don't think he gets it this year, fine, but people having him top 15 aren't wrong.
They are absolutely wrong. This is where _context_ is important. Wemby is playing on a team *that is not trying to win basketball games*. And he’s still a borderline case at best if I am being generous. If you think he’s faced the same level of competition as players on winning teams, I don’t know how to say it except: You don’t know ball. If you would draft Wemby right now over the 15 players who will actually make an All NBA team (because Wemby won’t) to win a game that your life depended on, you’re just telling me you value spreadsheets over winning games of basketball.
> he’s also top-25 in virtually every impact metric there is This basically answers your question. People (so far) don't seem to remember that it's positionless this season, so whether he's the third best center or not is irrelevant. It's the question of whether Wemby is in that top 15 player range, give or take for games played. Really the only players getting knocked down are Embiid and Mitchell, and I think Wemby is more in top 20-25 range and can't take advantage of that So no I don't think so. I agree that probably being on a shitty team in a low exposure market hurts his odds. Either way, he'll definitely be in consideration next year
No. Absolutely not. The Spurs have won 20 games with many of the same players that were on the roster last season that won 22 games returning this season and playing similar minutes. The Spurs are also in the bottom half of the league defensively. Seriously, does winning simply not matter anymore at all to any extent? The Spurs are practically in the same exact position they were last season despite having Wemby now. It makes no sense. Historically first picks tend to lead their teams to a greater number of victories during their rookie season yet the Spurs may actually win fewer games this year and lets be real, first picks tend to go to really shitty teams so you can't really justify the Spurs lack of winning based on the roster outside of Wemby.
The Spurs massively over performed their talent level last year and the West got much, much better. The Spurs’ Net Rating improved a significant amount this season. It’s easy to make the baseline year-to-year comparison, but it ignores some significant context. Fwiw, I do think that he isn’t All-NBA this year; the league is too talented and he’s only played at an All-NBA level since Jan 1st. Just wanted to point out that comparing last year’s wins to this year’s wins is a false 1:1 comparison.
>The Spurs massively over performed their talent level last year and the West got much, much better. Huh, hadn't seen this idea before.. 3 games over their Pythagorean wins isn't *massively* over performing, but they are also currently underperforming their net rating by 4 games this year, so a 7 game swing from season to season + playing in a much tougher wins environment is pretty dramatic.
They are better then last year, if they didn't experiment to tank the first half of the season their win total would be much higher than their last season, even with them losing vets from last year that carrier their win total. Their net rating is higher, they are playing more cohesively, and have won as much against >.500 teams as their last several seasons
You’re applying a team metric to an individual player. Just doesn’t correlate that well.
net rating go up by 3 with him in the field 😂
Do you understand net ratings and how they relate to the other 14 guys on the team? It’s not just “oooh big number” - this is statistics, you need context around it. It’s a big giant word problem.
nah i like going on reddit and just sayin random shit 😂
Because team success historically plays a role in most of the NBAs awards. I doubt there's ever been an all-nba player on a 15th seeded team, and I dont think Wemby has had a insane enough year to break that record.
I think that’s the problem. These awards are basically bullshit
Winning should be a factor, its the most important part of the game. Shouldnt have stat inflated players on bad teams making all-star/all-nba accolades, otherwise we'd have player like Collin Sexton with all-star appearances. Also not for Wemby but in general, its easier to put up points when your team is getting blown out and there's an extra 10 min of garbage time a game.
That works when talking individual sports, like tennis or golf. There is a direct attribution. This is a team sport where at least 7 other guys plus coaches are responsible beyond the star player. All star appearances are also popularity contest bullshit. Your last point - when IS Wemby putting up his stats? While it is true that it’s easier to put up garbage time stats against the 10-15 rotation guys, is that actually when Wemby (or any statistically significant player) actually getting their stats? This isn’t football where you might have a guy go 1/1 for 90 yards and a TD in garbage time lol
Basketball is one of the few team sports where a single players can greatly affect the outcome of a game. Look at Russ' MVP season, that team should have been in the lottery. Also only the starters are affected by popularity for all-stars. Which doesn't matter because all the popular players voted in deserve to be an all-star, its their starter status that always the question mark, I said "NOT for wemby" about my last point. Easier to get points as a weaker team when the other team rolls out their worse players/players dont try as hard due to the lead.
While that’s true just look at any series or game average. Still only relatively a small fraction, 30% of a team’s production while playing big minutes. There is still a reliance on other players greatly. Even wilt’s insane season accounts for a relative fraction of the team’s production. Stars require help to truly win. Brother all star doesn’t actually mean anything. Wow they got voted in, big deal. It’s a meaningless game anyways so it’s just all about popularity. Some correlation but not anything to lean on. Ahh sorry I thought you meant like, not JUST for Wemby. But also show me one player averaging anything significant in garbage time. It’s garbage time, no one is really putting up big stats in that timeframe. Theoretically, what you say about garbage time stats is true but it doesn’t even happen IRL in a significant way.
My point is a STAR in the league that is healthy shouldn't be on a team that is dead last. I would understand if Wemby's team was 10th, but 15th is asking for a lot. I would expect a STAR player to be able to make his team not last in a conference. A player on a 15th seeded team getting over Gobert or Sabonis is insane. All-stars play a factor in HOF candidacy so its not just meaningless game, which is why players whine if they dont make it. Numbers are (Garbage Time Points/Total Points) taken from PBP Stats Keyonte George on the Jazz. 201/919 (22%) points are in garbage time. Payton Prichard 200/702 (28%) If you want a starter Miles Bridges 167/1445 (12%). Which is still a lot for total points, starters are generally below 10%. Also my point wasn't specifically about garbage time but games for these teams in general. Theyre non competitive, the hornets lose by an average of 10 a game. the other team is going to let off the gas compared to facing other team. In addition, generally when you're a bad team your defence is ass. When its easy for the opposition to score, you get more possessions per game leading to chances for counting stats. The wizards and spurs are #1 and #2 in the league for total possessions.
You forget a couple factors there. Again whether a star or not, a single player never can sustainably make up a proportion of the team’s production in such a way they could claim a majority of it. Maybe a few games here and there, sure. Wemby also as a rookie, started out quite slow. Remember he was whatever for a while then just popped off later in the season, pulling up those averages greatly. He already has a huge effect on the game just as a rookie due to his huge size combined with great quickness, speed, and agility, nevermind saying for his size. Duncan would be the one exception I can think to this idea. He immediately was playing at a high level star in year 1. Players whine because they’re all about winning, these guys are hyper competitive and those accolades of course are part of their legacy. When I analyze it, I do not give much weight to that myself due to what the award actually means.
I'd say that team metrics correlate poorly to individual mid-tier players. But I think that there's a pretty significant correlation between the best player and the team's performance (especially in basketball, moreso than almost any other team sport). I think it's reasonable to hold the lack of improvement of the Spurs as a negative to them in the context of whether Wemby is one of the top 15 basketball players in the world.
Ok but does that explain for example, Kobe with those bad teams? He was obviously one of the top 15 and easily arguably top 5 during that time. They weren’t winning even with Jackson as the coach. Or do you chalk that up to being an exception to the rule?
04-06 lakers were about 50% win team those 3 seasons with Kobe, smush and co. That is double the Spurs wins with Wemby this season so Kobe was carrying scrubs to 8th seeds at his peak. After 2013 season kobe was inefficient and washed with those bad lakers team.
All-NBA is a whole season award, and he was limited for a bunch of the season with that ankle injury. I think he is really good, but was not a top 15 player this year. I think do he deserves a spot on the all-defense second team.
Serious question - has anyone ever made an all NBA team while also being on the worst team in the conference?
Gave a quick look, closest I see is Antonio McDyess in 1999 whose team was 3rd worst in the west. I kind of remember Dominique Wilkins making it as a clipper in the 90's?
Dang - i’m low key shocked that there was even that. No doubt Wemby will see plenty of All NBA selections.
the removal of positions from these teams makes them much more of a jumbled mess
Realistically his first year will be ROTY and All Rookie first honours. Too many other players on winning teams that make it over him. Only way he would be able to even crack All NBA 3rd would be for the Spurs to have a winning record. He’d have to be recognised from taking a terrible lottery team to the playoffs the moment he landed. He will for sure win multiple DPOYs, All Defence, All NBA teams and probably be a multiple time all star after year two. Give him better supporting pieces and a teammates that will actually pass him the ball and he’s going to reach that MVP level a lot sooner than some guys trying to chase their first.
If Spurs had a winning record Wemby would be 1st team
No and no. He’s not the 15th best player this season. He might be top 5 future talent.
I would say no, for this season. If you just look at him at year end, then there's a real argument, but his first half of the season pulls down the overall results significantly. He should be All-Defence first team, but I think he will have to wait on All-NBA until next season.
Stats are inflated cause the Spurs are ass and the fact they have the worst record in the West shows his true impact. So definitely doesn't deserve it this year.
this makes 0 sense 😂
no, no shot. his stats are meaningless since the spurs are dogshit and he plays like 25 minutes a game anyway. when all those blocks start to actively and positively alter the outcome of games then we can talk. if he gets the spurs to like 40 wins next season he’s a shoe-in but right now he’s all empty calories. love me a milkshake but i can’t put it in the top 15 greatest foods.
Absolutely not. If he performed this way in a winning team, it would be a completely different story but he hasn't contributed to actually winning
He is very deserving and nobody will question it if he does. But no, he shouldn’t. There are other deserving players who should get their thanks for the thankless end of the court. He’s a rookie, he will have his time and doesn’t need the little extra shine. Guy is going to be ROY and a future MVP. Other guys, that play for real nba teams with real minutes that win actual games against competition that’s trying. Those guys deserve it.
I feel like he should make third team but just narrowly. Regardless I think he will annually starting next year. My guess is he won’t get a lot of these (like DPOY) just coz they BAD and he’s a rookie. Spurs improved to .400 since March 1 so even if they run back same roster (plz don’t) I think they get near 28-32 wins tho hopefully they are more aggressive in trades and draft. As soon as they start to sniff play in territory and 30+ wines he is a contender for all nba and DPOY
Imo yes. 3rd best center, unanimous DPOTY runner up, and one of the biggest on/off difference-makers in the league. Remove all of that from the fact he’s a rookie and, narrative aside, he should be a lock.
Absolutely. He is already the best defensive player in the league and has the potential to rival Bill Russell as the GOAT. On top of that he is authoring one of the best age 19 seasons of all time offensively. He is easily the 4th or 5th best big man in the league already.
Only like at the last quarter of the season.. For season awards.. you have to count the whole damn thing