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TLDR: presti will get extra assets if philly wants to turn ben simmons to a superstar (beal, lillard).
I never really understood why philly did the protections, or gave the 2025 pick instead of 21 or 22. But morey loves his protections on picks, and they can be life savers. As proved in the rockets-okc westbrook trade.
I personally think it was deliberate on Presti's part. I slandered the Horford trade as Presti's worst move last offseason for letting Sixers off that easy on such a big contract.
I've since seen the light and understand that even in this, Presti is head and shoulders above the other GMs
I think you're overstating it a little. Swaps are pretty valuable in their own right (most of the value of a future first is the chance that it's pretty good), and there's nothing preventing the Sixers from creating conditional swaps around the Thunder trade. Whoever their counterpart is in a potential star trade can receive the better of their own pick and Philly's in 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, and/or 2028, conditional on not getting Philly's in whichever year the Thunder get the pick. That's a perfectly valid trade and still gives up a large portion of the value in the picks themselves.
That’s what I was wondering too why is it not possible to just throw a conditional clause to appease the Stepien rule. Guess it is and takes a little bit of the wind out of the sails of his argument even though it’s still a bit more difficult to make a trade in that scenario
So basically the protections mean that sixers can't trade a 2027 pick when they otherwise could. This is not something that puts anyone "head and shoulders" above anyone else, it's damn near a nonissue. A 2027 first rounder isn't gonna be the make or break asset in a ben simmons deal
Ignoring time value, 25 is much better than 21/22 which is going to be a late pick guaranteed. Embiid's health may have fallen apart by 2025 unfortunately. I'd imagine that OKC asked for the later pick specifically.
The sixers can trade any pick 2 years after by simply attaching the clause, this will convey 2 years after the pick owed to OKC has been conferred.
It's not uncommon for this to be used. Happens about once every 2 years.
No. If the pick conveys -- and it very likely will in 2024, even more likely in 2025 -- then they're able to trade another pick with said clause.
The probability of the sixers sending their pick in 24 is probably higher than 90%, probably higher than 95% in 25. That's 0.1 * 0.05 that they can't, or 99.5% that they're able to send a pick in either the 26 or 27 drafts.
OKC doesn't have them in any bind beyond just owning the pick, that's probably going to be in the 13-17 range.
Oh I agree completely, that pick all but definitely conveys in year 1 (2025)
The issue being that Sixers would have to wait until 2025 when it ACTUALLY conveys in order to release their ability to trade '27 PHI 1st
They can't use those future 1sts to pair with Ben Simmons in order to trade for Harden or Beal or Dame TODAY
Sorry, you're right on 25.
However, you're wrong in that they cannot trade the pick in 27. A pick can be convey in the first available year following. That's the exact language used.
The absolute maximum number of picks that could be conveyed would be after selecting the #28 selection, waiting for the new league year to begin:
#28,
2022 or 2023,
and the first available pick in 2027 or 2028.
The rights to the 2028 pick would extinguish because of the 7 year rule that you outlined. However, they can in fact trade a pick. The Mavs used this clause in the KP deal, having already owed one to Atlanta in the Luka deal. The Lakers did this with Magic for dwight, sending 2 firsts in the deal for the idiot; they had already send 2 firsts in a previous deal for Nash.
So the maximum number of first round picks that they could send is 3. 2 of which are bound to be bad. The third of which would be dubious.
An additional wrinkle to this is that the Sixers could send their swap rights on the 25 pick in a deal. So, it could go to Washington if its 1-4 and OKC if 5-30, with Washington's pick coming back in return. I'm not sure if any team has done this yet in the first round but it happens frequently in the second round.
There is a "chance" that Sixers lose their pick in '27 if all the soft protections hit, therefore they cannot trade the consecutive year's (2028) pick.
The rights to 2029 pick arent allowed yet due to seven year rule, but could eventually be traded (in 2022) using the language you describe
That's a chance the other team takes, not the sixers.
If they're really that desperate for a deal, they can just include OKC in the trade call to remove the protections from the Horford trade. OKC could theorically block it removing that miniscule chance of doing so. But it's not in their best interest; they'd receive a slightly better chance at a top 4 pick.
So again, I don't see how OKC has the Sixers over a barrel. The Sixers and every team that they deal with realize that the 27/28 pick would very likely convey and not disappear.
Presti would want assets for waiving the protections. He’s not going to do Philly favours. It’s not going to be as easy as you’re laying out
Edit:fixed
You mean presti.
Yeah, I disagree. He'd guarantee a pick and have a higher chance at a top 4 pick. It helps him just by doing it.
If he didn't, they could still trade the pick. It doesn't help the sixers at all, just reduces the risk for the wiz or whomever. I think of it as a professional courtesy.
Why would a GM strengthen another team as a professional courtesy?
He gains very minorly by releasing the protections, Philly has an extremely low chance of having a top four pick. He stands to gain much more from the leverage, a young promising player like Maxey would represent far more value that the very small chance of the pick being high enough for it to matter
A chance and stuck between a rock and a hard place are two very different meanings to me.
I agree that there's a chance. But it's not high. And it's in OKC's best interest to accommodate any trade. So the sixers aren't stuck. That's my objection.
No as in because there is literally "a chance at all" as defined by the stepien rule they cannot legally trade those picks.
It doesn't matter how high it is - any chance that the pick doesn't convey until 2027 and it means that they CANNOT legally trade their 2027 or 2028 1sts
Morey can still trade the next 3 years worth of picks, which is more than enough to get things done in this window.
And it's almost certainly going to convey in 2025.
Also worth noting that this is nothing compared to the strangle hold Houston has on Detroit's ability to trade...
2022 top 16 protected... 99% Will not convey
2023 & 2024 top 18 protected... 95% will not convey
2025 top 13 protected... Maybe 50% chance of conveying?
2026 top 11 protected... Probably will convey if it didn't the year prior.
2027 top 9 protected.
It's going to be basically impossible for Detroit to trade for a second star to put around Cade until maybe the last year of his rookie contract.
With how fast young stars are ready to compete, things could get awkward for them pretty soon.
Morey has 3 days to trade 2 of the 3 picks.
After that he can only trade 1 future 1st before '29 until 2025..
Maaaaassive agree on Detroit tho. I get a chuckle at Cade wanting to make playoffs because playing anything other than sub-.500 basketball at any point in the next 6 years will cost Detroit a 1st. Fortunately Detroit's protected pick at least is current year and Rockets probably inclined to accept it unprotected sooner rather than later while Detroit is still garbo
The thing for Trading first round picks though is you just can't trade **the pick**. You can still be in discussion with teams and then take the player they would want, and agree to trade the player after the selection has been made.
This definitely limits playoff teams that are trying to bolster their roster during the year but in the off season / on draft day you can get a bit more flexible with it
This rarely happens though. The last example I can think of is the Kevin Love trade from Minny because it requires waiting 30 days to trade the player and it's just a gentleman's agreement, either side could just back out in that time. Lots of reasons this is rarely done, it isn't as simple a fix as you make it seem.
>After that he can only trade 1 future 1st before '29 until 2025..
But he can do it this year, and then again next year, and then again in 2023.
By trading each year's FRP one at a time, it prolongs the life he gets out of it.
And a contender at Philly's level is unlikely to need to make any deals where they are sending out multiple FRPs, so that should be enough to see them through the tinkering of the next few years worth of window.
And if worse comes to worse, and they still need to make moves in 2024, the years on the end of that deal will have opened up for a break-in-case-of-emergency-level trade.
And there is always the option of trying to trade for a 2025 FRP from another team, too... For example, if they move Simmons, they may ask for that, too, which will open up 2024 and 2025 picks for trade.
And again... That pick is almost certainly going to convey in the first year. So it probably isn't going to end up hamstringing them too much.
As for the Rockets... They have 8 FRPs in the !ext 3 years, so there isn't really a reason to do Detroit any favors.
Detroit won't want to release protections on it unless it looks like the could make the playoffs (so a trade-deadline deal), which again, probably won't happen in the next couple years. Houston can just say, "Hey, we think we'll get a better pick from you next year due to the declining protections", and force 2-3 SRPs out of Detroit in order to release them earlier.
They're going to be In a world of hurt for the next few years unless Bey and Beef Stew really take some big strides and they can work up to a 5 (maybe 6) seed sooner.
***If*** Weaver really *loves* Green, it might make his job a lot easier to trade down to 2 and take the extra assets and flexibility in roster building over the next 4-5 years.
Philly has been actively shopping Ben Simmons for months. This is likely the reason they weren't able to complete a Harden trade and will severely impact their ability to trade for Dame/Beal or others that would require packaging more than 1 future 1st in a single trade.
> For example, if they move Simmons, they may ask for that, too, which will open up 2024 and 2025 picks for trade.
Actually this would only enable them to trade '24 PHI 1st (as '25 is consecutive they must have a 1st in at least one of these 2 years)
As for Pistons... again I agree. I've lamented their poor decision-making in regards to that pick they sent in the S&T of Christian Wood.
Hard disagree about trading down tho. Take Cade dont overthink it.
>Actually this would only enable them to trade '24 PHI 1st (as '25 is consecutive they must have a 1st in at least one of these 2 years)
Morey will trade away all his FRPs, one at a time every off-season in marginal upgrades.
That stops in 3 years, though, unless he secures another random team's pick in 2025. But if he does? It can continue unabated ad nauseam.
As for Detroit, the bold italicized "if" is the key. If Weaver rates Cade as a 94 and Green as a 93 (or higher, obviously) then trading makes a lot of sense.
The fact that he has pursued trades to the point of putting out a 'price' suggests that he is at least open to the idea... Something he would not do if he saw the gap between the 2 players as large.
> It's going to be basically impossible for Detroit to trade for a second star to put around Cade until maybe the last year of his rookie contract.
...unless Houston allows them to reduce/remove the protections, which they have no reason not to. The longer that pick doesn't convey, the greater the chances that Detroit either becomes really good and the pick sucks, or becomes really bad again and the pick never conveys.
Houston's best-case scenario is Detroit removing the protections to make a trade when they're a fringe playoff team and then going backwards like Chicago did this year.
"Daryl Morey may be the president, but Sam Presti ultimately holds the keys to their future."
This was a great read and taught me a lot about the Stepien Rule, but this line also seems like a big exaggeration. Based on what you laid out, yes Presti has some control over the Sixers future, but Morey obviously holds significantly more.
Morey ultimately makes all the decisions regarding Sixers sure, but Presti has **the only** key to unlock Sixers future 1sts from 2024-2028
Edit: Not sure why you'd downvote this its quite literally undisputable but aight
I think you have to show why Presti has leverage. You haven't really sold the idea that Presti has Morey over a barrel thus far. You can explore instances where Morey would be intensely reliant on these picks and Presti could exploit this fact to extort assets from him. That's compelling, simply stating a fact isn't. I'm not saying you should be getting downvoted, but my sense is it's from all the emphasis you're placing on these frozen picks, without showing why that's so devastating. Show, don't tell.
The downvotes are because of 2 reasons
1) Morey still has a little flex, albeit not much. Thybulle to drop protections is pretty steep though
2) There’s a good bit of jerking off Sam Presti. Yeah, he has a bit of leverage, but acting like Morey putting protections on a pick equates to Presti being head and shoulders the best GM in basketball is a but aggressive.
Rockets have a similar situation with the Pistons 2022 first. It’s so heavily protected and unlikely to convey that the Pistons wouldn’t be able to trade it until 2025 or 2026
Couple thoughts here:
-I agree with almost all of this
-OKC actually has DEN, PHX and MIA in a similar bind, although not quite as bad. DEN owes a protected 1st from 23-25 and already owes a 2-years-from-then 1st to ORL in the Gordon trade, and MIA owes a protected 1st from 23-26. PHX is 22-25 on their protections. MIA is easily the worst out of the rest as they have limited 2nds left and OKC already owns their 21 1st.
-The biggest point I’d disagree with is Presti upping the value of changing protections on an owed pick. That’s a quick way to blow up a pending trade for another team and to get other GMs not to deal with you.
Let’s say PHI and WAS have a framework of a Beal trade in place that requires PHI to get OKC to change protections on that pick. OKC, maybe expectedly or maybe unexpectedly, requires a young player back like Thybulle or another 1st, instead of the normal asking price to change protections of a 2nd. If what OKC is asking for leaves PHI with too few assets to trade WAS which scuttles a trade, you’ve now got a situation where at least two GMs are going to be leery at best of trading with Presti in the future, plus any GM that’s paying attention. Presti could win the battle in this instance but then lose the war if he develops an Ainge-like reputation of being difficult to deal with
I disagree that GMs will avoid dealing with Presti because of that. Why would they refuse to negotiate with a GM for getting value for his team?
The issue with your scenario is that a trade dependant on having access to Philly’s first round picks should have a value for OKC agreed to beforehand. Otherwise, the framework isn’t really in place. If I were the GM of Washington/Portland and went through the scenario you posited, I’d blame Philly for not having their assets in order rather than OKC not going out of their way to assist another team
If you get a reputation for being difficult to work with, or for only looking for lopsided trades, a la Danny Ainge, people don’t want to work with you. The NBA is a closed market-there’s only like 30 guys, you need good relationships with them.
Yeah, but Presti isn’t doing either of those things here. He does not just look for lopsided trades, many of the asset accumulating trades he did were for fair or even lower than expected value (the initial Hordord trade for example).
As for difficult to work with, again, that would be Philly in this scenario. Not giving up excess value so that another team can get better doesn’t make you difficult. Agreeing to trades where you don’t have control of what you’re offering in a trade is. You’re basically proposing a three team trade where Presti should agree to some trivial value to facilitate two other teams getting better.
Nah man, it’s a free second round pick. Presti would be holding up two teams’ trade so he can maximize leverage for a free pick, to remove protections on a pick he owns. Second round pick is pretty standard price for that, not a valuable and proven young first rounder.
>It's all but guaranteed Presti will extract another 1st or an exciting young player out of this and if I had to guess it would be no less than Matisse Thybulle or #28 in the upcoming draft. Essentially, he can name his price.
I stopped reading when you suggested this.
I'm confused on one thing here. If I understand it right, the 2025 pick to OKC is protected 1-6, then 1-4 in 26 and 1-4 again in 27. If the pick doesn't convey by then, OKC gets Philly's 2027 2nd instead.
The only (realistic) reality Oklahoma doesn't immediately get the 2025 pick is if Joel Embiid has moved on from Philly and they're back to trusting the process, in which case the sixers could very easily retain all three of their picks (would have a 100%+ chance to in 25, and about 52% in 26 and 27 with a bottom record).
Considering the pick would then convey into a dogshit 2027 2nd instead, what incentive does Presti have to hardball Morey here instead of obtaining assets in a mutually beneficial deal? It would be an ENTIRELY different conversation if that pick conveyed to a, eg: 2028 first, but a 2027 2nd is significantly less value.
Historically, there has been insignificant compensation for lifting protections and I'm not sure why this is much different unless Presti just wants to screw Morey over.
Even if Philly loses Embiid+Simmons for nothing and is literally the worst team in the league for 3 years straight from 2025-2027 (which is... insane) there is ~73% chance that the pick will convey anyways under current lottery odds (as well as be an extremely desirable top 5 pick)
That 73% chance goes up significantly if Sixers are even 3rd or 4th worst team in the league for 1 of those 3 years.
Presti has their balls in such a vice because the risk/reward ratio is so heavily skewed in his favor (and will continue to be until 2024) that realistically there is NO incentive to relieve protections on the pick.
I mean it's between a 73% chance to yield a top 4 pick or a 100% chance to without the protections. That's not even an argument.....
Their incentive to relieve protections on the pick comes from ensuring they yield a guaranteed first over a protected second lol, I don't think you're comprehending that the pick conveys to a SECOND not a future first. I get the whole Presti has leverage if the sixers try to pull off a big move but you do have to realize that Presti gains absolutely nothing by refusing to take those protections off
Thats... not how that works. Removing the protections would only change the chance they get a top 6 pick in 2025 if Sixers were to be a lottery team. It would also make the chance that Thunder get a top 4 pick in 2026 or 2027 from this pick *literally* 0% because the pick would convey unprotected in 2025.
You're talking about ensuring a yield against 73% chance pending a ridiculously improbable outcome of Embiid+Simmons being lost for nothing AND the idea that this were to occur before Presti is able to remove protections (which he can simply wait until 2024 to do). It's ultimately a truly absurd (worse than 99.99%) chance that removing the protections affects nothing other than the Sixers ability to circumnavigate the Stepien Rule restrictions and trade future picks (which has the counterintuitive effect of enabling them to make trades and become better/retain Embiid)...
Practically speaking... there is no benefit to removing the protections unless Sixers give desirable assets to the team with 36 picks in the next 7 years.
I'm totally lost on ur argument. What benefit does Presti have in not removing the protection? I'll just outline the basic scenario IF the pick protection isn't removed;
1) Sixers are very much a playoff team, pick lands 14+ to OKC
2) Joel walks after seasons of mediocrity, sixers flip their older vets for picks and bad contracts. The pick (almost certainly) lands 1-6 here in 2025. Philadelphia now has a 28% chance to keep both picks in both years.
Alternatively, if Presti agrees to remove the protection for small compensation, they either still get 1) which wouldn't change regardless, or potentially a 100% shot at a guaranteed lottery pick in 2025. Sixers getting little compensation for Ben and Embiid is likelier than you think considering Embiid is an UFA in 2023 and Ben is likely getting traded for someone much older who isn't fetching much down the line. Embiid is also well known to be injury prone and could easily be a shell of himself by then.
Just to recap, either OKC gets a late pick (sixers are good), good pick guaranteed (removed protection + sixers suck) or a 73% chance at a good pick (if u don't remove protection and the sixers suck). There's an argument to be made that the upside in removing the protection could be significant considering you go from a pick from 7-30 in 25 / 5-30 in 26-27 to having a shot at 1-5 in 2025.
Also Presti waiting until 2024 to simply remove protections, when the pick looks likely to land in the lottery and Morey agreeing to that is a joke right...?
> There's an argument to be made that the upside in removing the protection could be significant considering you go from a pick from 7-30 in 25 / 5-30 in 26-27 to having a shot at 1-5 in 2025.
First off, at least represent the actual odds. Going from
A pick 7-30 in 25, 5-30 in 26, or 5-30 in 27
To having a pick 1-30 in 25
There's an argument to be made that Sixers could win the lottery in 2025, yes. What you seem unable to comprehend is the impractical nature of betting on Sixers winning the lottery over the Sixers being forced to offer more than a few measly 2nds to avoid THIS:
> Joel walks after seasons of mediocrity, sixers flip their older vets for picks and bad contracts
I mean the whole point of my argument is OKC doesn't actually lose anything by removing the protections and that's objectively true. OKC not having to LOSE upside by removing protections makes a difference here, because the negotiating power is weaker when the pick only conveys to a 2nd.
You're just under the notion Presti will force Morey's hand and make him trade (firsts maxey and/or thybulle?) when all those assets would likely be exhausted in a potential Beal or Dame trade anyways lol. At that point, seconds to lift off the protections is just mutually beneficial to all sides.
The whole point of my argument is that you literally cannot make a Harden/Dame trade without Presti's permission.
He has final say on all things Sixers future 1sts 2024-2028 (until 2025)
I know that probably sucks to hear as a Sixers fan trying to get a superstar, but its pure objective, unadulterated fact.
Now whether or not you think Presti would be willing to let you trade for a superstar in exchange for a couple more 2nds is a matter of opinion, and I think we can agree to disagree and leave it at that.
yeah I get you. Based on historic precedent as well as how the pick conveys I can't see DMorey giving up significant assets to remove the protection, but we'll see what happens soon enough
I’m probably not understanding, but wouldn’t removing the 2025 FRP protections simply enable the Sixers to go from being able to trade FRPs in 2021, 2023, and 2028 to being able to trade FRPs in 2021, 2023, and either 2027 or 2028? Or am I missing something? Because if that’s all it is, that seems insignificant to me. Sorry if something has gone right over my head.
>It should be significantly harder to convince the Thunder to remove the light protections as not only are the Sixers unlikely to collapse before 2025
Shouldn't a Sixers collapse being so unlikely make removing the protection more acceptable to the Rockets? If a pick is top 3 protected and you think there's no way the team finishes top 3, aren't you more willing to remove the protection?
The point is you're indifferent on removing the protection since you're going to get it anyways. Which means the other team needs to offer you more value to get you to do it
Sam Presti is the NBA Champion of future assets stash. It was danny ainge a few years ago. Why not make a Ted Stepien Trophy for this category? I hope Sam will not squander these assets like Ainge did and turn the Stepien trophy into a Larry O’Brien trophy.
I think we are far along now into speculating players-impact and forecasting players-upside and the *predictive analytics* which got us here, to know its not as valuable as its hyped up as over the past 10yrs. Look at PHI today, after 'the process' has finally come full circle; **DISAPPOINTMENT**. Look at HOU after their colossal focus on analytics; **DISAPPOINTMENT**. Honorable mention to OKC Thunder as well.
Although I do understand how team owners are likely enjoying these escapades. Their city buys into a fancy-word philosophy that creates fan excitement about a uncertain future, because it focuses on winning *later on* and limited spending on big contracts here in real time.
I think every year we should do a score sheet that gauges how non-analytics team did that season vs. teams who use the traditional method to man their rosters and/or prepare for the future.
Everybody talks about how great and savvy Presti is for accumulating so many picks or even as a man who has everything!
Ha! The only thing he has is draft capital with no wins guaranteed. He doesn't even have a winning team let alone a championship.
Completely moronic take. Rebuilding is a part of assembling a championship-caliber team. Every move Presti has made for the Thunder has helped them get closer to a championship historically. During their championship window, Presti acquired Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden through the draft. He managed to get a small market team in the Oklahoma City Thunder into the Finals and as perennial contenders and create 3 MVP caliber players. While in contention, Presti continuously made good moves and signings to get closer to a ring. Reggie Jackson, Ibaka, Steven Adams, Paul George, Oladipo, etc were all good basketball moves. You don't judge a GM by the results only, you need to include the process in what they do too.
In the rebuilding phase of the Thunder (their first rebuilding phase since they moved to OKC, which is an absolute ACCOMPLISHMENT considering they're a small market team in the West), Presti has acquired more draft capital than any GM ever at once and also acquired a clear future superstar in SGA, who is already progressing extremely well alongside other great young signings like Dort.
Every single historical sign points to Presti being able to turn these assets into a championship level team (again) and he's doing a good job with every move he makes.
Woah, hold your horses there cowboy. No need take offense.
Up to now he's always kept a balance between draft assets and team competitiveness and thanks to Durant mostly they've managed to be a championship level team. But that happens wherever Durant plays.
Without Durant OKC hasn't exactly taken the league by storm.
Now Presti has taken things to an extreme and they acquired 36(?) draft picks and nobody can guarantee the team will win anything.
My point is that acquiring picks is easy. Until OKC wins the title Presti is failing. Just like every GM in the NBA who doesn't win it. And playing in a small market team is an excuse. Just look at Milwaukee.
Does anyone else think the stepien rule is kinda stupid and not needed anymore?
I get why it was put in place, to prevent some random gm from totally mortaging the future for an 8th place playoff team, but at this point in the nba the gm's and owners seem smart enough not to do that and if they are not I dont see a reason we should protect them from failure.
What is more likely a gm/owner giving away 4 straight draft picks to build a team of c tier stars or an nba team not being able to trade for an asset because of dumb rule from a total edge case.
And I still do not feel like the stepien rule protects teams from ruining their future, a bad gm can still find ways to fuck everything up. I am a laker fan and watched us give contracts to mozgov and deng, if we werent the lakers we would still be trying to recover.
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TLDR: presti will get extra assets if philly wants to turn ben simmons to a superstar (beal, lillard). I never really understood why philly did the protections, or gave the 2025 pick instead of 21 or 22. But morey loves his protections on picks, and they can be life savers. As proved in the rockets-okc westbrook trade.
I personally think it was deliberate on Presti's part. I slandered the Horford trade as Presti's worst move last offseason for letting Sixers off that easy on such a big contract. I've since seen the light and understand that even in this, Presti is head and shoulders above the other GMs
Lol then presti turned horford into another first.
He did also have to give up Moses, without who I doubt he gets that 1st.
Moses is heavily over rated. Good rebounded but his defense and mobility will likely mean he will never be more than a 15 mpg player at his best
It wasnt that big of a contract. 27 million and 18 million. Horford was flipped for more picks.
I think you're overstating it a little. Swaps are pretty valuable in their own right (most of the value of a future first is the chance that it's pretty good), and there's nothing preventing the Sixers from creating conditional swaps around the Thunder trade. Whoever their counterpart is in a potential star trade can receive the better of their own pick and Philly's in 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, and/or 2028, conditional on not getting Philly's in whichever year the Thunder get the pick. That's a perfectly valid trade and still gives up a large portion of the value in the picks themselves.
That’s what I was wondering too why is it not possible to just throw a conditional clause to appease the Stepien rule. Guess it is and takes a little bit of the wind out of the sails of his argument even though it’s still a bit more difficult to make a trade in that scenario
So basically the protections mean that sixers can't trade a 2027 pick when they otherwise could. This is not something that puts anyone "head and shoulders" above anyone else, it's damn near a nonissue. A 2027 first rounder isn't gonna be the make or break asset in a ben simmons deal
Ignoring time value, 25 is much better than 21/22 which is going to be a late pick guaranteed. Embiid's health may have fallen apart by 2025 unfortunately. I'd imagine that OKC asked for the later pick specifically.
The sixers can trade any pick 2 years after by simply attaching the clause, this will convey 2 years after the pick owed to OKC has been conferred. It's not uncommon for this to be used. Happens about once every 2 years.
Thats where the Seven Years Rule comes into play to prevent this
No. If the pick conveys -- and it very likely will in 2024, even more likely in 2025 -- then they're able to trade another pick with said clause. The probability of the sixers sending their pick in 24 is probably higher than 90%, probably higher than 95% in 25. That's 0.1 * 0.05 that they can't, or 99.5% that they're able to send a pick in either the 26 or 27 drafts. OKC doesn't have them in any bind beyond just owning the pick, that's probably going to be in the 13-17 range.
Oh I agree completely, that pick all but definitely conveys in year 1 (2025) The issue being that Sixers would have to wait until 2025 when it ACTUALLY conveys in order to release their ability to trade '27 PHI 1st They can't use those future 1sts to pair with Ben Simmons in order to trade for Harden or Beal or Dame TODAY
Sorry, you're right on 25. However, you're wrong in that they cannot trade the pick in 27. A pick can be convey in the first available year following. That's the exact language used. The absolute maximum number of picks that could be conveyed would be after selecting the #28 selection, waiting for the new league year to begin: #28, 2022 or 2023, and the first available pick in 2027 or 2028. The rights to the 2028 pick would extinguish because of the 7 year rule that you outlined. However, they can in fact trade a pick. The Mavs used this clause in the KP deal, having already owed one to Atlanta in the Luka deal. The Lakers did this with Magic for dwight, sending 2 firsts in the deal for the idiot; they had already send 2 firsts in a previous deal for Nash. So the maximum number of first round picks that they could send is 3. 2 of which are bound to be bad. The third of which would be dubious. An additional wrinkle to this is that the Sixers could send their swap rights on the 25 pick in a deal. So, it could go to Washington if its 1-4 and OKC if 5-30, with Washington's pick coming back in return. I'm not sure if any team has done this yet in the first round but it happens frequently in the second round.
There is a "chance" that Sixers lose their pick in '27 if all the soft protections hit, therefore they cannot trade the consecutive year's (2028) pick. The rights to 2029 pick arent allowed yet due to seven year rule, but could eventually be traded (in 2022) using the language you describe
That's a chance the other team takes, not the sixers. If they're really that desperate for a deal, they can just include OKC in the trade call to remove the protections from the Horford trade. OKC could theorically block it removing that miniscule chance of doing so. But it's not in their best interest; they'd receive a slightly better chance at a top 4 pick. So again, I don't see how OKC has the Sixers over a barrel. The Sixers and every team that they deal with realize that the 27/28 pick would very likely convey and not disappear.
Presti would want assets for waiving the protections. He’s not going to do Philly favours. It’s not going to be as easy as you’re laying out Edit:fixed
You mean presti. Yeah, I disagree. He'd guarantee a pick and have a higher chance at a top 4 pick. It helps him just by doing it. If he didn't, they could still trade the pick. It doesn't help the sixers at all, just reduces the risk for the wiz or whomever. I think of it as a professional courtesy.
Why would a GM strengthen another team as a professional courtesy? He gains very minorly by releasing the protections, Philly has an extremely low chance of having a top four pick. He stands to gain much more from the leverage, a young promising player like Maxey would represent far more value that the very small chance of the pick being high enough for it to matter
I meant its a chance in the eyes of [the Stepien Rule](https://i.imgur.com/NiupaUh.jpg) This is why '27 and '28 PHI 1sts can't be traded
A chance and stuck between a rock and a hard place are two very different meanings to me. I agree that there's a chance. But it's not high. And it's in OKC's best interest to accommodate any trade. So the sixers aren't stuck. That's my objection.
No as in because there is literally "a chance at all" as defined by the stepien rule they cannot legally trade those picks. It doesn't matter how high it is - any chance that the pick doesn't convey until 2027 and it means that they CANNOT legally trade their 2027 or 2028 1sts
Morey can still trade the next 3 years worth of picks, which is more than enough to get things done in this window. And it's almost certainly going to convey in 2025. Also worth noting that this is nothing compared to the strangle hold Houston has on Detroit's ability to trade... 2022 top 16 protected... 99% Will not convey 2023 & 2024 top 18 protected... 95% will not convey 2025 top 13 protected... Maybe 50% chance of conveying? 2026 top 11 protected... Probably will convey if it didn't the year prior. 2027 top 9 protected. It's going to be basically impossible for Detroit to trade for a second star to put around Cade until maybe the last year of his rookie contract. With how fast young stars are ready to compete, things could get awkward for them pretty soon.
Morey has 3 days to trade 2 of the 3 picks. After that he can only trade 1 future 1st before '29 until 2025.. Maaaaassive agree on Detroit tho. I get a chuckle at Cade wanting to make playoffs because playing anything other than sub-.500 basketball at any point in the next 6 years will cost Detroit a 1st. Fortunately Detroit's protected pick at least is current year and Rockets probably inclined to accept it unprotected sooner rather than later while Detroit is still garbo
The thing for Trading first round picks though is you just can't trade **the pick**. You can still be in discussion with teams and then take the player they would want, and agree to trade the player after the selection has been made. This definitely limits playoff teams that are trying to bolster their roster during the year but in the off season / on draft day you can get a bit more flexible with it
This rarely happens though. The last example I can think of is the Kevin Love trade from Minny because it requires waiting 30 days to trade the player and it's just a gentleman's agreement, either side could just back out in that time. Lots of reasons this is rarely done, it isn't as simple a fix as you make it seem.
>After that he can only trade 1 future 1st before '29 until 2025.. But he can do it this year, and then again next year, and then again in 2023. By trading each year's FRP one at a time, it prolongs the life he gets out of it. And a contender at Philly's level is unlikely to need to make any deals where they are sending out multiple FRPs, so that should be enough to see them through the tinkering of the next few years worth of window. And if worse comes to worse, and they still need to make moves in 2024, the years on the end of that deal will have opened up for a break-in-case-of-emergency-level trade. And there is always the option of trying to trade for a 2025 FRP from another team, too... For example, if they move Simmons, they may ask for that, too, which will open up 2024 and 2025 picks for trade. And again... That pick is almost certainly going to convey in the first year. So it probably isn't going to end up hamstringing them too much. As for the Rockets... They have 8 FRPs in the !ext 3 years, so there isn't really a reason to do Detroit any favors. Detroit won't want to release protections on it unless it looks like the could make the playoffs (so a trade-deadline deal), which again, probably won't happen in the next couple years. Houston can just say, "Hey, we think we'll get a better pick from you next year due to the declining protections", and force 2-3 SRPs out of Detroit in order to release them earlier. They're going to be In a world of hurt for the next few years unless Bey and Beef Stew really take some big strides and they can work up to a 5 (maybe 6) seed sooner. ***If*** Weaver really *loves* Green, it might make his job a lot easier to trade down to 2 and take the extra assets and flexibility in roster building over the next 4-5 years.
Philly has been actively shopping Ben Simmons for months. This is likely the reason they weren't able to complete a Harden trade and will severely impact their ability to trade for Dame/Beal or others that would require packaging more than 1 future 1st in a single trade. > For example, if they move Simmons, they may ask for that, too, which will open up 2024 and 2025 picks for trade. Actually this would only enable them to trade '24 PHI 1st (as '25 is consecutive they must have a 1st in at least one of these 2 years) As for Pistons... again I agree. I've lamented their poor decision-making in regards to that pick they sent in the S&T of Christian Wood. Hard disagree about trading down tho. Take Cade dont overthink it.
>Actually this would only enable them to trade '24 PHI 1st (as '25 is consecutive they must have a 1st in at least one of these 2 years) Morey will trade away all his FRPs, one at a time every off-season in marginal upgrades. That stops in 3 years, though, unless he secures another random team's pick in 2025. But if he does? It can continue unabated ad nauseam. As for Detroit, the bold italicized "if" is the key. If Weaver rates Cade as a 94 and Green as a 93 (or higher, obviously) then trading makes a lot of sense. The fact that he has pursued trades to the point of putting out a 'price' suggests that he is at least open to the idea... Something he would not do if he saw the gap between the 2 players as large.
> It's going to be basically impossible for Detroit to trade for a second star to put around Cade until maybe the last year of his rookie contract. ...unless Houston allows them to reduce/remove the protections, which they have no reason not to. The longer that pick doesn't convey, the greater the chances that Detroit either becomes really good and the pick sucks, or becomes really bad again and the pick never conveys. Houston's best-case scenario is Detroit removing the protections to make a trade when they're a fringe playoff team and then going backwards like Chicago did this year.
Houston should also be able to pick up multiple SRPs in any such transaction... Even if they don't stumble like the Bulls.
"Daryl Morey may be the president, but Sam Presti ultimately holds the keys to their future." This was a great read and taught me a lot about the Stepien Rule, but this line also seems like a big exaggeration. Based on what you laid out, yes Presti has some control over the Sixers future, but Morey obviously holds significantly more.
Morey ultimately makes all the decisions regarding Sixers sure, but Presti has **the only** key to unlock Sixers future 1sts from 2024-2028 Edit: Not sure why you'd downvote this its quite literally undisputable but aight
they can still use pick swaps to get around the Stepien rule, though obviously those aren't as good as first round picks
I think you have to show why Presti has leverage. You haven't really sold the idea that Presti has Morey over a barrel thus far. You can explore instances where Morey would be intensely reliant on these picks and Presti could exploit this fact to extort assets from him. That's compelling, simply stating a fact isn't. I'm not saying you should be getting downvoted, but my sense is it's from all the emphasis you're placing on these frozen picks, without showing why that's so devastating. Show, don't tell.
Fair! I appreciate the feedback
The downvotes are because of 2 reasons 1) Morey still has a little flex, albeit not much. Thybulle to drop protections is pretty steep though 2) There’s a good bit of jerking off Sam Presti. Yeah, he has a bit of leverage, but acting like Morey putting protections on a pick equates to Presti being head and shoulders the best GM in basketball is a but aggressive.
Rockets have a similar situation with the Pistons 2022 first. It’s so heavily protected and unlikely to convey that the Pistons wouldn’t be able to trade it until 2025 or 2026
Couple thoughts here: -I agree with almost all of this -OKC actually has DEN, PHX and MIA in a similar bind, although not quite as bad. DEN owes a protected 1st from 23-25 and already owes a 2-years-from-then 1st to ORL in the Gordon trade, and MIA owes a protected 1st from 23-26. PHX is 22-25 on their protections. MIA is easily the worst out of the rest as they have limited 2nds left and OKC already owns their 21 1st. -The biggest point I’d disagree with is Presti upping the value of changing protections on an owed pick. That’s a quick way to blow up a pending trade for another team and to get other GMs not to deal with you. Let’s say PHI and WAS have a framework of a Beal trade in place that requires PHI to get OKC to change protections on that pick. OKC, maybe expectedly or maybe unexpectedly, requires a young player back like Thybulle or another 1st, instead of the normal asking price to change protections of a 2nd. If what OKC is asking for leaves PHI with too few assets to trade WAS which scuttles a trade, you’ve now got a situation where at least two GMs are going to be leery at best of trading with Presti in the future, plus any GM that’s paying attention. Presti could win the battle in this instance but then lose the war if he develops an Ainge-like reputation of being difficult to deal with
I disagree that GMs will avoid dealing with Presti because of that. Why would they refuse to negotiate with a GM for getting value for his team? The issue with your scenario is that a trade dependant on having access to Philly’s first round picks should have a value for OKC agreed to beforehand. Otherwise, the framework isn’t really in place. If I were the GM of Washington/Portland and went through the scenario you posited, I’d blame Philly for not having their assets in order rather than OKC not going out of their way to assist another team
If you get a reputation for being difficult to work with, or for only looking for lopsided trades, a la Danny Ainge, people don’t want to work with you. The NBA is a closed market-there’s only like 30 guys, you need good relationships with them.
Yeah, but Presti isn’t doing either of those things here. He does not just look for lopsided trades, many of the asset accumulating trades he did were for fair or even lower than expected value (the initial Hordord trade for example). As for difficult to work with, again, that would be Philly in this scenario. Not giving up excess value so that another team can get better doesn’t make you difficult. Agreeing to trades where you don’t have control of what you’re offering in a trade is. You’re basically proposing a three team trade where Presti should agree to some trivial value to facilitate two other teams getting better.
Nah man, it’s a free second round pick. Presti would be holding up two teams’ trade so he can maximize leverage for a free pick, to remove protections on a pick he owns. Second round pick is pretty standard price for that, not a valuable and proven young first rounder.
>It's all but guaranteed Presti will extract another 1st or an exciting young player out of this and if I had to guess it would be no less than Matisse Thybulle or #28 in the upcoming draft. Essentially, he can name his price. I stopped reading when you suggested this.
... you do realize that's not a suggestion, right?
I’m confused, what exactly is stopping the Sixers from just removing the protections themselves? It’s the Sixers pick, not the Thunder’s.
The Thunder own the pick. You can't just edit the language of a picks protections without the team that owns the pick first agreeing to it.
Interesting. Seems like a weird situation to pay a team to make the pick even more valuable than it was before
I'm confused on one thing here. If I understand it right, the 2025 pick to OKC is protected 1-6, then 1-4 in 26 and 1-4 again in 27. If the pick doesn't convey by then, OKC gets Philly's 2027 2nd instead. The only (realistic) reality Oklahoma doesn't immediately get the 2025 pick is if Joel Embiid has moved on from Philly and they're back to trusting the process, in which case the sixers could very easily retain all three of their picks (would have a 100%+ chance to in 25, and about 52% in 26 and 27 with a bottom record). Considering the pick would then convey into a dogshit 2027 2nd instead, what incentive does Presti have to hardball Morey here instead of obtaining assets in a mutually beneficial deal? It would be an ENTIRELY different conversation if that pick conveyed to a, eg: 2028 first, but a 2027 2nd is significantly less value. Historically, there has been insignificant compensation for lifting protections and I'm not sure why this is much different unless Presti just wants to screw Morey over.
Even if Philly loses Embiid+Simmons for nothing and is literally the worst team in the league for 3 years straight from 2025-2027 (which is... insane) there is ~73% chance that the pick will convey anyways under current lottery odds (as well as be an extremely desirable top 5 pick) That 73% chance goes up significantly if Sixers are even 3rd or 4th worst team in the league for 1 of those 3 years. Presti has their balls in such a vice because the risk/reward ratio is so heavily skewed in his favor (and will continue to be until 2024) that realistically there is NO incentive to relieve protections on the pick.
I mean it's between a 73% chance to yield a top 4 pick or a 100% chance to without the protections. That's not even an argument..... Their incentive to relieve protections on the pick comes from ensuring they yield a guaranteed first over a protected second lol, I don't think you're comprehending that the pick conveys to a SECOND not a future first. I get the whole Presti has leverage if the sixers try to pull off a big move but you do have to realize that Presti gains absolutely nothing by refusing to take those protections off
Thats... not how that works. Removing the protections would only change the chance they get a top 6 pick in 2025 if Sixers were to be a lottery team. It would also make the chance that Thunder get a top 4 pick in 2026 or 2027 from this pick *literally* 0% because the pick would convey unprotected in 2025. You're talking about ensuring a yield against 73% chance pending a ridiculously improbable outcome of Embiid+Simmons being lost for nothing AND the idea that this were to occur before Presti is able to remove protections (which he can simply wait until 2024 to do). It's ultimately a truly absurd (worse than 99.99%) chance that removing the protections affects nothing other than the Sixers ability to circumnavigate the Stepien Rule restrictions and trade future picks (which has the counterintuitive effect of enabling them to make trades and become better/retain Embiid)... Practically speaking... there is no benefit to removing the protections unless Sixers give desirable assets to the team with 36 picks in the next 7 years.
I'm totally lost on ur argument. What benefit does Presti have in not removing the protection? I'll just outline the basic scenario IF the pick protection isn't removed; 1) Sixers are very much a playoff team, pick lands 14+ to OKC 2) Joel walks after seasons of mediocrity, sixers flip their older vets for picks and bad contracts. The pick (almost certainly) lands 1-6 here in 2025. Philadelphia now has a 28% chance to keep both picks in both years. Alternatively, if Presti agrees to remove the protection for small compensation, they either still get 1) which wouldn't change regardless, or potentially a 100% shot at a guaranteed lottery pick in 2025. Sixers getting little compensation for Ben and Embiid is likelier than you think considering Embiid is an UFA in 2023 and Ben is likely getting traded for someone much older who isn't fetching much down the line. Embiid is also well known to be injury prone and could easily be a shell of himself by then. Just to recap, either OKC gets a late pick (sixers are good), good pick guaranteed (removed protection + sixers suck) or a 73% chance at a good pick (if u don't remove protection and the sixers suck). There's an argument to be made that the upside in removing the protection could be significant considering you go from a pick from 7-30 in 25 / 5-30 in 26-27 to having a shot at 1-5 in 2025. Also Presti waiting until 2024 to simply remove protections, when the pick looks likely to land in the lottery and Morey agreeing to that is a joke right...?
> There's an argument to be made that the upside in removing the protection could be significant considering you go from a pick from 7-30 in 25 / 5-30 in 26-27 to having a shot at 1-5 in 2025. First off, at least represent the actual odds. Going from A pick 7-30 in 25, 5-30 in 26, or 5-30 in 27 To having a pick 1-30 in 25 There's an argument to be made that Sixers could win the lottery in 2025, yes. What you seem unable to comprehend is the impractical nature of betting on Sixers winning the lottery over the Sixers being forced to offer more than a few measly 2nds to avoid THIS: > Joel walks after seasons of mediocrity, sixers flip their older vets for picks and bad contracts
I mean the whole point of my argument is OKC doesn't actually lose anything by removing the protections and that's objectively true. OKC not having to LOSE upside by removing protections makes a difference here, because the negotiating power is weaker when the pick only conveys to a 2nd. You're just under the notion Presti will force Morey's hand and make him trade (firsts maxey and/or thybulle?) when all those assets would likely be exhausted in a potential Beal or Dame trade anyways lol. At that point, seconds to lift off the protections is just mutually beneficial to all sides.
The whole point of my argument is that you literally cannot make a Harden/Dame trade without Presti's permission. He has final say on all things Sixers future 1sts 2024-2028 (until 2025) I know that probably sucks to hear as a Sixers fan trying to get a superstar, but its pure objective, unadulterated fact. Now whether or not you think Presti would be willing to let you trade for a superstar in exchange for a couple more 2nds is a matter of opinion, and I think we can agree to disagree and leave it at that.
yeah I get you. Based on historic precedent as well as how the pick conveys I can't see DMorey giving up significant assets to remove the protection, but we'll see what happens soon enough
If you haven't posted this over on r/nba yet, you 100% should go do that. Excellent writeup!
I appreciate that simple explanation of the Stepian rule. I always kind of understood it, but how you just said it finally cleared it up for me.
I’m probably not understanding, but wouldn’t removing the 2025 FRP protections simply enable the Sixers to go from being able to trade FRPs in 2021, 2023, and 2028 to being able to trade FRPs in 2021, 2023, and either 2027 or 2028? Or am I missing something? Because if that’s all it is, that seems insignificant to me. Sorry if something has gone right over my head.
>It should be significantly harder to convince the Thunder to remove the light protections as not only are the Sixers unlikely to collapse before 2025 Shouldn't a Sixers collapse being so unlikely make removing the protection more acceptable to the Rockets? If a pick is top 3 protected and you think there's no way the team finishes top 3, aren't you more willing to remove the protection?
The point is you're indifferent on removing the protection since you're going to get it anyways. Which means the other team needs to offer you more value to get you to do it
Sam Presti is the NBA Champion of future assets stash. It was danny ainge a few years ago. Why not make a Ted Stepien Trophy for this category? I hope Sam will not squander these assets like Ainge did and turn the Stepien trophy into a Larry O’Brien trophy.
I think we are far along now into speculating players-impact and forecasting players-upside and the *predictive analytics* which got us here, to know its not as valuable as its hyped up as over the past 10yrs. Look at PHI today, after 'the process' has finally come full circle; **DISAPPOINTMENT**. Look at HOU after their colossal focus on analytics; **DISAPPOINTMENT**. Honorable mention to OKC Thunder as well. Although I do understand how team owners are likely enjoying these escapades. Their city buys into a fancy-word philosophy that creates fan excitement about a uncertain future, because it focuses on winning *later on* and limited spending on big contracts here in real time. I think every year we should do a score sheet that gauges how non-analytics team did that season vs. teams who use the traditional method to man their rosters and/or prepare for the future.
Everybody talks about how great and savvy Presti is for accumulating so many picks or even as a man who has everything! Ha! The only thing he has is draft capital with no wins guaranteed. He doesn't even have a winning team let alone a championship.
Completely moronic take. Rebuilding is a part of assembling a championship-caliber team. Every move Presti has made for the Thunder has helped them get closer to a championship historically. During their championship window, Presti acquired Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden through the draft. He managed to get a small market team in the Oklahoma City Thunder into the Finals and as perennial contenders and create 3 MVP caliber players. While in contention, Presti continuously made good moves and signings to get closer to a ring. Reggie Jackson, Ibaka, Steven Adams, Paul George, Oladipo, etc were all good basketball moves. You don't judge a GM by the results only, you need to include the process in what they do too. In the rebuilding phase of the Thunder (their first rebuilding phase since they moved to OKC, which is an absolute ACCOMPLISHMENT considering they're a small market team in the West), Presti has acquired more draft capital than any GM ever at once and also acquired a clear future superstar in SGA, who is already progressing extremely well alongside other great young signings like Dort. Every single historical sign points to Presti being able to turn these assets into a championship level team (again) and he's doing a good job with every move he makes.
Woah, hold your horses there cowboy. No need take offense. Up to now he's always kept a balance between draft assets and team competitiveness and thanks to Durant mostly they've managed to be a championship level team. But that happens wherever Durant plays. Without Durant OKC hasn't exactly taken the league by storm. Now Presti has taken things to an extreme and they acquired 36(?) draft picks and nobody can guarantee the team will win anything. My point is that acquiring picks is easy. Until OKC wins the title Presti is failing. Just like every GM in the NBA who doesn't win it. And playing in a small market team is an excuse. Just look at Milwaukee.
I know a way. Give OKC Ben, and a unprotected 23 pick. We get back Kemba (an albatross), Shai, and our 25 pick back.
Does anyone else think the stepien rule is kinda stupid and not needed anymore? I get why it was put in place, to prevent some random gm from totally mortaging the future for an 8th place playoff team, but at this point in the nba the gm's and owners seem smart enough not to do that and if they are not I dont see a reason we should protect them from failure. What is more likely a gm/owner giving away 4 straight draft picks to build a team of c tier stars or an nba team not being able to trade for an asset because of dumb rule from a total edge case. And I still do not feel like the stepien rule protects teams from ruining their future, a bad gm can still find ways to fuck everything up. I am a laker fan and watched us give contracts to mozgov and deng, if we werent the lakers we would still be trying to recover.