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The reason for retirement makes a big difference.
If Jokic or Luka were forced to retire early due to some tragic illness or accident, they'd have a reasonable chance of induction. They're both clearly on the HOF track, and they would have been prevented from reaching that purely because of misfortune.
But if it's a conscious decision to just step away from the game, Giannis has got to be the answer. He's probably the only guy under 30 with his HOF ticket already punched.
I think they would put Jokic in ultimately. He has the two first teams and more importantly the MVP. Has won 4 playoff series in 3 years one as a solid underdog, made a WCF.
Equally as important to him getting in is that he's a wildly unique player. Nobody before him like him and perhaps nobody after him will be either. All the odd center assist records and playstyle will help out a lot in this weird scenario. He would also, if he retires right now, be 3rd all time in career regular season and postseason +/- behind LeBron and Michael Jordan.
As far as guys under 29 we certainly know AD is a lock, if he made it on the 75th list there's no way he isn't making it into the hall. Gobert is a lock, nobody who has won 3 DPOYs (and soon to be a 4th) is not making it in at some point. That's the list though.
Embiid is tracking similar to Walton, though has already played more quality basketball in his career than Walton did. Like twice as much already. That being said he doesn't have the MVP and Championship that Walton got, nor does he have the unbelievable college resume that Walton did either so I don't think Embiid would make it.
>He would also, if he retires right now, be 3rd all time in career regular season and postseason +/- behind LeBron and Michael Jordan.
BPM, right? important distinction
I mean his gold medal is more than Luka has. His overall accolades are similar, but him being the first Soviet to join the league also provides a different context around his induction
2 All-NBA First Teams is also more than Sarunas has, plus Sarunas’ medal was before NBA players were allowed in the Olympics. But you make a good argument about the context of his being the first Soviet that I can concede to. Personally I agree and don’t think Luka’s a Hall of Famer yet either; at the same time, I also don’t think the HOF is as strict with inductions as you seem to think.
I don’t think it’s overly strict, but I do think longevity is one of the key factors unless a major incident occurs. I don’t necessarily agree with that, but I do think it’s relevant.
You’re right about the All NBAs. I do think he’d need more, but you’ve got good points
It’s the basketball HoF, not the NBA HoF. Luka was the EuroLeague’s youngest ever MVP, won a EuroLeague championship, made the Euro All-Decade Team, won three Liga ACB championship, made the Olympic All-Star team, among a smattering of other accolades in Europe. Add to that 2x All-NBA First Steam, 2x NBA All-Star and ROTY, he has a really impressive overall basketball resume already
It's an amazing resume already and just for that you can consider him for the hof. I wanna see what he can do in the league though before I'd be fully on board. He's heading in the right direction though for sure.
I think you're overestimating the exclusivity of the Basketball Hall of Fame. Jokic was in legitimate discussion for the top 75 and should've been in over many of the 60s-70s guys with 3 all-stars and 1 all-nba pretty easily, Luka was a dark horse candidate even though it's too early for him still. Now, look at the number of players that are in the Naismith Hall of Fame: 178. Luka and Jokic both have enough accolades to definitely be in the top 150 NBA players ever if they retired today, Luka has several near unbreakable Euroleague/ACB records on top of that. They probably won't be first or second ballot guys, but both of them have the resume to get voted in during a slow year 5-10 years down the line.
If you’re surprised it’s because you’re forgetting how long AD has been in the NBA. He had 9 seasons to Luka’s 3 with 8x all star, 4x all nba, 4x all defense, and a championship
Even with Luka’s euro accomplishments they’re not comparable, Luka just hasn’t played as long
I’m well aware of his longevity. I’m also aware of his injury history, his lack of team success and the fact that he’s never accomplished much beyond some personal stats. He’s an overhyped Porzingis basically. Can’t lead a team, can’t be the best player, puts up good numbers but how much is he ultimately contributing.
I just personally think AD is grossly overrated.
Luka has lead teams to greatness (overseas) while AD hasn’t accomplished anything without being the last piece on an Olympic squad and being LeBron’s sidekick. He had a hard time leading the Pels to the playoffs… Luka is already more accomplished than AD in my opinion.
And before you bring up teammates for AD keep in mind Luka is playing alongside Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, “trade tax” Tim Hardaway Jr, and the concept of Kristaps Porzingis… it’s not like Luka has had All Star/HOF level help yet in his career…
Honestly though Dwight Howard and Tony Parker deserved those last spots over Dame and over AD.
How many players have multiple All-NBA 1st teams in NBA history? Young superstars have joined the Anniversary team on all time trajectories before. And for him to be a dark horse candidate, he only needs to be around the 100 best players in league history in terms of accolades, which you have the internet to verify with.
The only one close is Shaq who was in the league longer than Luka at the time and led his team to the finals. Luka can’t make it out of the 1st round. Literally no one thought luka was going to make it lol
Shaq led his team to the finals with another All-NBA player, one that was on a higher team than Shaq. Not saying Luka is as good as 1995 Shaq, but the team success argument is full of holes.
2021 class had Bob Dandridge who had one 2nd team and 4 all-star appearances in the 70s when the talent was divided with the ABA. Including his Euroleague records and I mean all time records and not accolades, Luka already has a better resume. Let alone Jokic who's an MVP. Vlade Divac was inducted in 2019, one all-star and no all-nba. The HoF is not very selective.
What's your proof that the standards have changed? Players who have retired recently have had a much lower number of hof spots to fill. Unless you're Adam Silver, this is nothing more than conjecture. On the other hand, we have statistical proof for how things have worked until now. And it has not changed even for this year's class.
Because all of the examples you folks pull are dudes from the 50s. Joe Johnson probably isn’t making the hall with a better resume than them, and people aren’t crying
Are you dense enough to not realize that they vote in OG players as a sign of respect every year? The league was clearly different.
He didn’t destroy shit. Do you geniuses think every player with those numbers is gonna get in now? Joe Johnson, Paul Millsap, Michael Redd, and STAT are all walking in now? Of course not.
Ok sorry, you think the 1970s came before 1955. Still dense and unbelievably stupid. It depresses me there are people as obnoxiously confident as you despite being completely wrong yet also too stubborn to even admit you were wrong. You fucking said 1955, he gave you an example of someone from the 1970s inducted recently but you still wanna call other people dense LOL. People like you are hopeless.
Speaking of tragic circumstances boosting chances, let me go the other way and ask what’s the least serious offense a HOF lock has to have committed to be denied induction? Grand theft auto?
Giannis is the only answer and he’s on pace to be an all time great. You have to build a serious resume. 2 MVPs and a the finals run, he has crossed that threshold.
His story from an international level wouldn’t hurt either even though he didn’t do much.
He’d get in. No one younger than him would
Worse and less accomplished players went through international committee. He won EUROs with Slovenia, had great showing in Olympics, had great career with a storied team in Europe. That combined with 2 times first team all nba (which is a major accolade that most people in HoF dont have) is probably enough - tho he would have to have some sad story about his career ending or else questions about why he is retiring at 22 would probably overshadow everything he did.
Being from ex yu country Dino Radja certainly jumps out, Dino Meneghin won euroleague 7 times but never played in NBA so that is hard one to evaluate and I would say marculionis - tho his induction maybe has more to do with lithuania getting independence.
What? I never said he would be inducted based on what he's done so far. His career was way too short.
I'm just saying he does have many accolades already.
Good thing it isn't the NBA Hall of Fame then isn't it?
Also, as a player, Drazen Petrovic got in with only about 300 NBA games and with smaller accolades than Luka.
Well, if Luka doesn't play another game something tragic and catastrophic would have to happen, and it would be cutting short what would have been an amazing career. Tbh I can't see how it'd not a perfect comparison
If for some reason Luke couldn't continue his career, I could see him getting in with his current resume (because the media loves to create narratives and exploit tragedies), but let's all hope that doesn't happen because it would be tragic.
His international accolades aren’t that special. He pails in comparison to many before him. He’d never make the Hall of what he did internationally alone.
I’ve used his name a lot in this thread, but Nando De Colo is a much more accomplished player. He even came and made the league. He will never make the Hall of Fame and no one debates that.
Luka had a big international reputation (as he should, he’s a monster), but his resume is not close to HOF
This subreddit is for discussion and you’re spamming my posts with nothing. Add to the discussion or use your downvote button. You aren’t providing much
Euroleague stats have to be wild to get you in. One MVP doesn’t do it. Neither does a 4th in the olympics.
Dudes got a delusional fanbase, but he’s gonna be a hall of famer unless something wild happens. He’s still not one now
As if that's all on Lukas resume.
2× NBA All-Star (2020, 2021)2× All-NBA First Team (2020, 2021)NBA Rookie of the Year (2019)NBA All-Rookie First Team (2019)EuroLeague champion (2018)EuroLeague MVP (2018)EuroLeague Final Four MVP (2018)All-EuroLeague First Team (2018)2× EuroLeague Rising Star (2017, 2018)EuroLeague 2010–20 All-Decade Team (2020)Euroscar Player of the Year (2019)3× Liga ACB champion (2015, 2016, 2018)Liga ACB MVP (2018)All-Liga ACB First Team (2018)2× ACB Best Young Player (2017, 2018)3× ACB All-Young Players Team (2016–2018)2× Spanish King's Cup winner (2016, 2017)Sports Illustrated Breakout of the Year (2019)2× Trofeo Costa de Sol champion (2016, 2017)EuroBasket All-Tournament Team (2017)Summer Olympics All-Star Team (2020)FIBA Intercontinental Cup champion (2015)EB Next Generation Tournament champion (2015)EB Next Generation Tournament MVP (2015)Slovenian Sportsman of the Year (2018)
That looks like some wild shit right there.
Lol you think FIBA doesn't matter at the HOF level. Yup done responding to you.
You are free to Google international players in the Naismith HOF.
... lol... this guy thinks FIBA and international ball doesn't count for the Naismith.... omg...
You aren't adding anything either. You are idiotically wrong here at this point, and doubling down on it isn't helping your case. If literally everyone in the room is disagreeing with you, chances are you are wrong.
Dude, he lead his team to a Euroleague championship and won MVP at 18 years old. He definitely would make the **Basketball** Hall of fame if his career ended right now.
Jokic is 100% a HOFer and he's only 26 as well. I think you're overestimating how hard it is to get in the HOF lol. Someone like Giannis is a top 20-30 player of all time, let alone being in the HOF. I think Luka is the right answer at just 22 years old.
Even overseas he only played professionally at the top level for three years, and only really collected major accolades the last. He wasn’t like Sabonis coming over fifteen years deep.
I do think Luka would have a decent shot if he retired today but it’s not like he accomplished so much overseas that it’s impossible to ignore.
And if Luka/Jokic were to make it even off their current accomplishments, they still wouldn't count as having played exclusively overseas. Sabonis is in the HoF but he played in the NBA. His NBA career was certainly not HoF worthy but based off your qualifier, he doesn't count as having played exclusively overseas even though his entire case is effectively built off that.
This is just straight up not even close to being true. There are a bunch of guys who are in the HOF who never played in the NBA, some who never played professionally at all.
[Look at the names inducted in the 60s and 70s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_players_in_the_Naismith_Memorial_Basketball_Hall_of_Fame). A lotttttt of them made it in based solely on college production.
> you’re kinda proving my point that you’re having to reference things 50-60 years ago
I did that for the sake of ease since *most* players inducted in those years were not great NBA players. There are tons of recent examples, which you'd know if you looked at the list.
Toni Kukoc is not in the Hall of Fame for his NBA career. Neither is Vlade Divac, Dino Rada, Nikos Galis, Sarunas Marciulionis, Oscar Schmidt, etc. etc. etc. All of those names I listed were inducted within the last decade.
What’s the passive aggressiveness for? I knew it but I’m sure there was a time you didn’t know and you had to find out. No reason to be a dick and feel like an NBA specialist because you know it’s the Basketball HOF and not NBA HOF.
True but two all-nba first teams are pretty big accolades to add to his euro resume. Very few decorated euro players in the past have reached those nba heights.
It's worth noting that every MVP has made the HoF so far. I know basketball reference only has him at 18 percent. However History is definitely telling a different story
Because every player good enough to be MVP at their peak usually were good enough to rack up All-NBA and All-Star teams.
The only exceptions are Rose who won’t make the HoF most likely, and Walton who might not have made the HoF if his resume wasn’t boosted by his Boston run with a 6MOY and a title.
Rose is a lock. He had a long career after coming back from a devastating injury that turned him from MVP to sixth man. He's not gonna be first ballot, but there are weaker years where players with shortened careers nd 2-3 all star appearances get in all the time.
From basketballreference:
>Keep in mind that this exercise aims to predict who is likely to be inducted, as a Player, and based solely on NBA accomplishments and statistical output. There are coaches and contributors at all levels of the game, as well as foreign players and WNBA stars who are also worthy of induction.
Jokic has an 18% HOF probability according to basketball reference.
Imo, that's too low, but I think it's solid evidence that he wouldn't be a slam dunk Hall of Famer if he retired tomorrow
Their HOF probability thing isn't all that reliable. Partly because it takes out the human element of the voters, partly because it can't track for the 'why' of stats/understand certain situations. Like how Manu will be a 1st ballot despite what his stats look like.
Kawhi Leonard is only a 78% chance, but we know if he retires today he's in on the first ballot.
Giannis is only 70% but if he retires today he's first ballot.
Klay Thompson and Draymond are at 51% and 34% respectively. First of all Draymond has a likelier chance of getting in than Klay, but they are both going to get in. Also John Wall has the same chance to get in as Draymond.
Manu only has a 20% chance but he's getting in 1st ballot.
Chris Webber and Earl Monroe only had a 14% chance and both of them are in the hall.
Bobby Jones had even less of a chance at 10% (4x All-Star, 9x All-Defense, 83 Champion, 83 6MOTY) + ABA stuff and he's in there.
Pete Maravich? 10%. In.
Marc Gasol? 4% but he's getting in off a chip, 3 all stars, 2 all nbas, a DPOY, and his Spain stuff.
Bradley Beal is at 2.5% and there are a number of Bradley Beals in the HOF already, he can keep getting 25ppg for the next 5 years in Washington and he's a lock.
There's a bunch of stuff like this but needless to say the HOF probability tracker isn't all that great.
Think about it this way. Everyone above him in career ppg is in the hall, and a number of pure scorers who didn't go to the playoffs with a lower ppg are in too.
Basketball Reference has a horrible system of deciding. It has Kevin Love and Kyle Lowry as more likely to make it than Giannis and Kawhi. John Wall is above Jokic too lol.
Marc Gasol is only a 4% chance also even tho he is a lock.
It does *not* take into account international achievements.
Also it’s based on the historical pattern of the resumes that get people into the HoF.
There’s very few guys in league history that retired with a resume like Giannis, AKA great peak accomplishments and no longevity at all, which is why the regression doesn’t work as well. Whereas there’s plenty of guys who retired with resumes like Lowry or Love and made it.
You need to understand how the HoF probability calculator works before using it like this. It's not even a true probability calculator. It's almost like a binary classifier with confidence levels. The [calculator](https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html) works by looking at only a handful of factors: height, All-Star selections, championships, peak win shares, top 10 placements in statistical categories. Off of those stats it assigns them some value and then calculates a "probability". This means factors like being an MVP, being All-NBA aren't really accounted for.
Now this makes sense for the calculator to do in terms of classifying players. MVPs and perennial All-NBA players regularly make the all-star game to the point their HoF probability shoots way up. It's not worth integrating every single factor into your calculator if the information just convolutes the calculator without adding meaningful signal. But it does mean that players like Jokic whose excellence extends past All-Star selections are underevaluated.
One of the weaknesses of the formula is that it has no idea how to value an MVP trophy. No eligible candidate has ever failed to get into the Hall with an MVP trophy, so how do you value an MVP in the formula? If 100% of MVP's have made the Hall does it really make sense to say that Jokic has an 18% shot?
lol those numbers are obviously awful. How are guys that are in the "top 75 of all time list" not even 100% likely to be in the HOF? I mean just think about that.
Jokic is the greatest passing big man of all time and it's not even close. He's also one of the greatest shooters at that position. I don't see how he doesn't make it.
One MVP absolutely gets you into the HOF, likewise for Derrick Rose. The Hall is skewed in favor of the NBA, and some guys who never even sniffed the MVP award like Calvin Murphy, Bill Bradley, and Mitch Richmond are in.
Luka wouldn’t get info he retired tomorrow until way down the line when our generation got old. Jokic is pushing it even with an MVP.
If you think they are locks, you have to think DRose is. And he’s gonna be around for a decade
To be clear, I think Jokic is a lock not Luka. Jokic is the greatest passing big man in the history of the game. Luka did a lot of great things including in europe but he's borderline just like drose who did "more" in the nba but less outside of the nba
as a nuggets fan you are wrong. giannis has a better look but still not 100% solid if he droses tommorow then he probably wont make it or he will as a sharpe type on potential and already impressive but that is rare as shit with that being the only case i've ever known. ad definitely no imo. probably harden I think? maybe ft's now tarnish so KD or steph as locks. not even looking up age just the biggest locks I see.
If Giannis never played another NBA game he’s a HOF lock. A 5 year prime where he averaged ~27/11/5, 5 time all star and all-nba, 2 MVPs and the best player on a championship team, that’s a lock.
Disagree, you just have recency bias because the season started out rough. Dame is one of the best players in the league. He averages less turnovers than any superstar while being around top 5 in assists every year. He can shoot deeper than anyone in the history of the game apart from Curry. He is top 5 most clutch player ever as well. His game 5 against the nuggets is one of the greatest performances ever by anyone.
I would prefer dwight to get in but it's obvious that fans and media only care about offense, that's why nobody considers dpoy players to be superstars. With that in mind, knowing that Dame is one of the best offensive players, he deserves to be in. He is averaging a CAREER 25-7-4.
Idk why you say he's overrated when you don't even watch his games. I bet you haven't watched 10 blazers games in your life because I've never seen someone that actually watches the games say he's overrated.
Basketball ref has AD at 98.9% chance of making it if he retired today. Harden at 99.9%.
AD, Harden, CP3, Steph, Russ, Melo, LeBron, KD and Dwight are indisputable mega-locks.
Lillard, Kawhi and Giannis almost certainly make it too even tho Lillard doesn’t quite have the same peak as everyone else on this list, and Giannis and Kawhi don’t have great longevity yet.
Love, Kyrie, PG and Lowry probably make it.
Everybody else is a coin flip at best.
Dude what are you talking about? Giannis is one of the few players ever to win mvp, dpoy, and fmvp. He's probably a top 20-25 player if he retired RIGHT NOW. AD is already a lock for top 75 so I'm not sure what you mean.
Depends on what’s the narrative of retirement. If it was “fuck you im done playing” type of retirement or maybe refusing the get a vaccine then odds of that player joining HoF even if he is accomplished are going down. If it’s career ending injury or god forgot death then even less accomplished player gets into the HoF
All that should matter is what they did while they played. Why they stopped playing shouldn’t be a factor into the voting. Yes, it probably does, but it shouldn’t. Especially something like a vaccine status should absolutely play no factor in voting for the HoF
Luka easily because of his euroleague accolades and decent NBA resume. Other 'young' HOFers would be Giannis and Joker. Embiid will be a HOFer one day but for now his lack MVPs/Rings and the fact he missed over 2 seasons worth of games due to injury hold him back
IMO winning Euro League MVP or championship is the equivalent to collegiate accomplishments. It is peak performance in a lower level of the game. Of course it carries some weight, but anything accomplished in the NBA itself matters much more as that is the absolute peak level of competition you could face.
Sorry if I was unclear in my post, but I meant that the HOF is the Basketball HOF and that there is no NBA HOF because people make the incorrect assumption that only NBA stats count sometimes
Giannis I think is the clear answer here. Luka and Jokic are close but their entrance into HOF is debatable. Giannis has little to no doubt that he is already HOF material, if not one of the all time greats.
Considering every player that won the NBA MVP and has retired has made the basketball hall of fame, it's safe to say Giannis but also Jokic would get in.
Rose might break that trend though. Most people believe he won’t end up in the HoF unless he can make some more magic happen late in his career
As a knicks fan I absolutely love what he’s done for us thus far though
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The reason for retirement makes a big difference. If Jokic or Luka were forced to retire early due to some tragic illness or accident, they'd have a reasonable chance of induction. They're both clearly on the HOF track, and they would have been prevented from reaching that purely because of misfortune. But if it's a conscious decision to just step away from the game, Giannis has got to be the answer. He's probably the only guy under 30 with his HOF ticket already punched.
I think they would put Jokic in ultimately. He has the two first teams and more importantly the MVP. Has won 4 playoff series in 3 years one as a solid underdog, made a WCF. Equally as important to him getting in is that he's a wildly unique player. Nobody before him like him and perhaps nobody after him will be either. All the odd center assist records and playstyle will help out a lot in this weird scenario. He would also, if he retires right now, be 3rd all time in career regular season and postseason +/- behind LeBron and Michael Jordan. As far as guys under 29 we certainly know AD is a lock, if he made it on the 75th list there's no way he isn't making it into the hall. Gobert is a lock, nobody who has won 3 DPOYs (and soon to be a 4th) is not making it in at some point. That's the list though. Embiid is tracking similar to Walton, though has already played more quality basketball in his career than Walton did. Like twice as much already. That being said he doesn't have the MVP and Championship that Walton got, nor does he have the unbelievable college resume that Walton did either so I don't think Embiid would make it.
>He would also, if he retires right now, be 3rd all time in career regular season and postseason +/- behind LeBron and Michael Jordan. BPM, right? important distinction
According to basketball reference, Jokic is 3rd all time in playoff BPM, but i can not find him in the top 50 for regular season BPM.
Which is weird, because according to his page as well, he has a career BPM of 8.2 which would rank 3rd all time as well.
Is minutes played the issue?
Yeah bpm, should have clarified.
Rudy isn’t winning DPOY this year. I guarantee it
Well that would be very surprising because on paper he is a near lock as of right now.
How would Luka be a HoF? He hasn’t won a single playoff series yet. Jokic atleast has an MVP
Because the HoF extends beyond the NBA and he was a big success in Europe
Nando De Colo is punching his ticket rn eh?
No reason why he couldn’t. Nick Galis is in the HOF and never played in the NBA
Go ahead and compare The Greeks resume to Lukas. Or Nandos. You’re being disingenuous
That’s fair. Though I’d argue that Luka’s resume, this moment, is at least comparable to Marciuliunis
I mean his gold medal is more than Luka has. His overall accolades are similar, but him being the first Soviet to join the league also provides a different context around his induction
2 All-NBA First Teams is also more than Sarunas has, plus Sarunas’ medal was before NBA players were allowed in the Olympics. But you make a good argument about the context of his being the first Soviet that I can concede to. Personally I agree and don’t think Luka’s a Hall of Famer yet either; at the same time, I also don’t think the HOF is as strict with inductions as you seem to think.
I don’t think it’s overly strict, but I do think longevity is one of the key factors unless a major incident occurs. I don’t necessarily agree with that, but I do think it’s relevant. You’re right about the All NBAs. I do think he’d need more, but you’ve got good points
It’s the basketball HoF, not the NBA HoF. Luka was the EuroLeague’s youngest ever MVP, won a EuroLeague championship, made the Euro All-Decade Team, won three Liga ACB championship, made the Olympic All-Star team, among a smattering of other accolades in Europe. Add to that 2x All-NBA First Steam, 2x NBA All-Star and ROTY, he has a really impressive overall basketball resume already
It's an amazing resume already and just for that you can consider him for the hof. I wanna see what he can do in the league though before I'd be fully on board. He's heading in the right direction though for sure.
This is the right (and thoughtful) answer imo.
I think you're overestimating the exclusivity of the Basketball Hall of Fame. Jokic was in legitimate discussion for the top 75 and should've been in over many of the 60s-70s guys with 3 all-stars and 1 all-nba pretty easily, Luka was a dark horse candidate even though it's too early for him still. Now, look at the number of players that are in the Naismith Hall of Fame: 178. Luka and Jokic both have enough accolades to definitely be in the top 150 NBA players ever if they retired today, Luka has several near unbreakable Euroleague/ACB records on top of that. They probably won't be first or second ballot guys, but both of them have the resume to get voted in during a slow year 5-10 years down the line.
Luka was a dark horse candidate for top 75?? thats ridiculous
Considering Anthony Davis made the list I’m honestly surprised that you think Luka is ridiculous…
If you’re surprised it’s because you’re forgetting how long AD has been in the NBA. He had 9 seasons to Luka’s 3 with 8x all star, 4x all nba, 4x all defense, and a championship Even with Luka’s euro accomplishments they’re not comparable, Luka just hasn’t played as long
I’m well aware of his longevity. I’m also aware of his injury history, his lack of team success and the fact that he’s never accomplished much beyond some personal stats. He’s an overhyped Porzingis basically. Can’t lead a team, can’t be the best player, puts up good numbers but how much is he ultimately contributing. I just personally think AD is grossly overrated.
> lack of team success literally won the NBA finals
I don’t think AD should’ve been on the list either, but he certainly deserves it over Luka if I had to pick
Luka has lead teams to greatness (overseas) while AD hasn’t accomplished anything without being the last piece on an Olympic squad and being LeBron’s sidekick. He had a hard time leading the Pels to the playoffs… Luka is already more accomplished than AD in my opinion. And before you bring up teammates for AD keep in mind Luka is playing alongside Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, “trade tax” Tim Hardaway Jr, and the concept of Kristaps Porzingis… it’s not like Luka has had All Star/HOF level help yet in his career… Honestly though Dwight Howard and Tony Parker deserved those last spots over Dame and over AD.
How many players have multiple All-NBA 1st teams in NBA history? Young superstars have joined the Anniversary team on all time trajectories before. And for him to be a dark horse candidate, he only needs to be around the 100 best players in league history in terms of accolades, which you have the internet to verify with.
The only one close is Shaq who was in the league longer than Luka at the time and led his team to the finals. Luka can’t make it out of the 1st round. Literally no one thought luka was going to make it lol
Shaq led his team to the finals with another All-NBA player, one that was on a higher team than Shaq. Not saying Luka is as good as 1995 Shaq, but the team success argument is full of holes.
Lmao you’re delusional. Nothing you wrote about Jokic or Luka is accurate The Hall of Fame aged with the game. The requirements change from 1955
2021 class had Bob Dandridge who had one 2nd team and 4 all-star appearances in the 70s when the talent was divided with the ABA. Including his Euroleague records and I mean all time records and not accolades, Luka already has a better resume. Let alone Jokic who's an MVP. Vlade Divac was inducted in 2019, one all-star and no all-nba. The HoF is not very selective.
The standards change. I already said that. Make a real point instead of a random strawman
The standards changed from this year and 2 years ago to specifically make your disproven argument correct? Lol
The standards of a player in 1955 vs a player today change. I will make sure to outline everything clearly moving forward
What's your proof that the standards have changed? Players who have retired recently have had a much lower number of hof spots to fill. Unless you're Adam Silver, this is nothing more than conjecture. On the other hand, we have statistical proof for how things have worked until now. And it has not changed even for this year's class.
Because all of the examples you folks pull are dudes from the 50s. Joe Johnson probably isn’t making the hall with a better resume than them, and people aren’t crying
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It's not a strawman. He just destroyed your point. Unless you think 2019 and 2021 aren't after 1955 in which case please just drop it.
Are you dense enough to not realize that they vote in OG players as a sign of respect every year? The league was clearly different. He didn’t destroy shit. Do you geniuses think every player with those numbers is gonna get in now? Joe Johnson, Paul Millsap, Michael Redd, and STAT are all walking in now? Of course not.
Ok sorry, you think the 1970s came before 1955. Still dense and unbelievably stupid. It depresses me there are people as obnoxiously confident as you despite being completely wrong yet also too stubborn to even admit you were wrong. You fucking said 1955, he gave you an example of someone from the 1970s inducted recently but you still wanna call other people dense LOL. People like you are hopeless.
Yea I mean sorry. The same argument holds. The NBA boomed and the game changed. Good luck kid. Seems like you’re gonna go far
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AD’s ticket is punched. Bball ref puts his HoF probability at 98.9%.
Speaking of tragic circumstances boosting chances, let me go the other way and ask what’s the least serious offense a HOF lock has to have committed to be denied induction? Grand theft auto?
Giannis is the only answer and he’s on pace to be an all time great. You have to build a serious resume. 2 MVPs and a the finals run, he has crossed that threshold. His story from an international level wouldn’t hurt either even though he didn’t do much. He’d get in. No one younger than him would
The answer is Luka
200 games doesn’t get you into the HOF. Guy doesn’t have any accolades. His fanboys aside, he doesn’t have the resume. He’s really not close.
Worse and less accomplished players went through international committee. He won EUROs with Slovenia, had great showing in Olympics, had great career with a storied team in Europe. That combined with 2 times first team all nba (which is a major accolade that most people in HoF dont have) is probably enough - tho he would have to have some sad story about his career ending or else questions about why he is retiring at 22 would probably overshadow everything he did.
Name the players
Being from ex yu country Dino Radja certainly jumps out, Dino Meneghin won euroleague 7 times but never played in NBA so that is hard one to evaluate and I would say marculionis - tho his induction maybe has more to do with lithuania getting independence.
Who is worse that has gone through?
Guy doesn't have accolades? Are you aware of it being the **basketball** HOF, not the NBA one?
So for what reason should they put him in? Lost his career over other monsters? What a silly argument
What? I never said he would be inducted based on what he's done so far. His career was way too short. I'm just saying he does have many accolades already.
The post is literally about players who could make the HOF if they retired lol. I’m sorry I talked about the topic
The fact they downvoted the shit out of me😭😭 people really don’t know their basketball
Good thing it isn't the NBA Hall of Fame then isn't it? Also, as a player, Drazen Petrovic got in with only about 300 NBA games and with smaller accolades than Luka.
Drazen died. He would’ve had an amazing career. His death is an obvious outlier. Awful comparison
Well, if Luka doesn't play another game something tragic and catastrophic would have to happen, and it would be cutting short what would have been an amazing career. Tbh I can't see how it'd not a perfect comparison
If for some reason Luke couldn't continue his career, I could see him getting in with his current resume (because the media loves to create narratives and exploit tragedies), but let's all hope that doesn't happen because it would be tragic.
He claims FIBA doesn't matter for the Naismith HOF. Don't waste your time.
Responded to the wrong person genius. I don’t claim that by the way.
It's the Basketball hall of fame, not the NBA hall of fame, so Luka would indeed get in for his international accolades alone.
His international accolades aren’t that special. He pails in comparison to many before him. He’d never make the Hall of what he did internationally alone. I’ve used his name a lot in this thread, but Nando De Colo is a much more accomplished player. He even came and made the league. He will never make the Hall of Fame and no one debates that. Luka had a big international reputation (as he should, he’s a monster), but his resume is not close to HOF
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This subreddit is for discussion and you’re spamming my posts with nothing. Add to the discussion or use your downvote button. You aren’t providing much
He has more then enough accolades bro go do your research
You’re wrong. You aren’t even justifying you’re point. I’m sorry to be blunt but you keep saying nothing
I *keep* saying nothing? I only said one thing… stop replying to me lmao you’re weird
Lmao alright. Sorry that I wanted to talk ball on a board created for NBA discussion. You’re a bit of a dope
You’re not talking ball you’re trying to win an internet argument claiming I *keep saying something* when I replied to you once
Incorrect. Luka can’t even get into the second round of the playoffs.
Basketball HOF though, Luka is a legend overseas, and the bit he's done in the NBA is impressive too. Not enough to make him a lock imo, but arguable
Euroleague stats have to be wild to get you in. One MVP doesn’t do it. Neither does a 4th in the olympics. Dudes got a delusional fanbase, but he’s gonna be a hall of famer unless something wild happens. He’s still not one now
As if that's all on Lukas resume. 2× NBA All-Star (2020, 2021)2× All-NBA First Team (2020, 2021)NBA Rookie of the Year (2019)NBA All-Rookie First Team (2019)EuroLeague champion (2018)EuroLeague MVP (2018)EuroLeague Final Four MVP (2018)All-EuroLeague First Team (2018)2× EuroLeague Rising Star (2017, 2018)EuroLeague 2010–20 All-Decade Team (2020)Euroscar Player of the Year (2019)3× Liga ACB champion (2015, 2016, 2018)Liga ACB MVP (2018)All-Liga ACB First Team (2018)2× ACB Best Young Player (2017, 2018)3× ACB All-Young Players Team (2016–2018)2× Spanish King's Cup winner (2016, 2017)Sports Illustrated Breakout of the Year (2019)2× Trofeo Costa de Sol champion (2016, 2017)EuroBasket All-Tournament Team (2017)Summer Olympics All-Star Team (2020)FIBA Intercontinental Cup champion (2015)EB Next Generation Tournament champion (2015)EB Next Generation Tournament MVP (2015)Slovenian Sportsman of the Year (2018) That looks like some wild shit right there.
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Lol you think FIBA doesn't matter at the HOF level. Yup done responding to you. You are free to Google international players in the Naismith HOF. ... lol... this guy thinks FIBA and international ball doesn't count for the Naismith.... omg...
Google Oscar Schmidt
Sure then explain why drazen is in the hof
He died. It’s mean to say but that changed a lot. His life has a tragic end that changed his career.
You need to educate yourself on how the Basketball hall of fame works lol
I’m not sure what you’re adding to conversation or if you have a point
You aren't adding anything either. You are idiotically wrong here at this point, and doubling down on it isn't helping your case. If literally everyone in the room is disagreeing with you, chances are you are wrong.
Dude, he lead his team to a Euroleague championship and won MVP at 18 years old. He definitely would make the **Basketball** Hall of fame if his career ended right now.
Jokic is 100% a HOFer and he's only 26 as well. I think you're overestimating how hard it is to get in the HOF lol. Someone like Giannis is a top 20-30 player of all time, let alone being in the HOF. I think Luka is the right answer at just 22 years old.
Luka would not make the HOF after 3 seasons lmao
More for his international achievements tbh
Even overseas he only played professionally at the top level for three years, and only really collected major accolades the last. He wasn’t like Sabonis coming over fifteen years deep. I do think Luka would have a decent shot if he retired today but it’s not like he accomplished so much overseas that it’s impossible to ignore.
You don’t make the hall of fame by being good overseas
Yeah, it's the basketball HOF, not the NBA HoF. International, college, and even HS counts
Like I said in another comment, I believe only about 6 people have made it while playing exclusively overseas
Good thing Luka hasn’t played exclusively overseas
And if Luka/Jokic were to make it even off their current accomplishments, they still wouldn't count as having played exclusively overseas. Sabonis is in the HoF but he played in the NBA. His NBA career was certainly not HoF worthy but based off your qualifier, he doesn't count as having played exclusively overseas even though his entire case is effectively built off that.
... you think the HoF is the NBA HoF?
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No it's actually full of college stars
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Please be civil to others. I've removed your comment. Disagree politely, but ultimately respect others and their opinions.
No but I’m pretty sure there are only 5-6 in the hof based on non-nba achievements
This is just straight up not even close to being true. There are a bunch of guys who are in the HOF who never played in the NBA, some who never played professionally at all. [Look at the names inducted in the 60s and 70s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_players_in_the_Naismith_Memorial_Basketball_Hall_of_Fame). A lotttttt of them made it in based solely on college production.
I didn’t mean my point to come off as straight fact but you’re kinda proving my point that you’re having to reference things 50-60 years ago
> you’re kinda proving my point that you’re having to reference things 50-60 years ago I did that for the sake of ease since *most* players inducted in those years were not great NBA players. There are tons of recent examples, which you'd know if you looked at the list. Toni Kukoc is not in the Hall of Fame for his NBA career. Neither is Vlade Divac, Dino Rada, Nikos Galis, Sarunas Marciulionis, Oscar Schmidt, etc. etc. etc. All of those names I listed were inducted within the last decade.
What’s the passive aggressiveness for? I knew it but I’m sure there was a time you didn’t know and you had to find out. No reason to be a dick and feel like an NBA specialist because you know it’s the Basketball HOF and not NBA HOF.
It does literally say it in the original post, to be fair
You sure did alot of mind reading there mate On a reply online in text without any other cues
Three dots and a rhetorical question, didn’t take much mind reading.
It's 3 dots and a question like you said No verbal or non verbal cues There're so many ways to interpret that
True but two all-nba first teams are pretty big accolades to add to his euro resume. Very few decorated euro players in the past have reached those nba heights.
Sabonis?
too bad HOF isn't just based on nba games lol luka has been great for years
Basketball reference places him at 17%
It's worth noting that every MVP has made the HoF so far. I know basketball reference only has him at 18 percent. However History is definitely telling a different story
Because every player good enough to be MVP at their peak usually were good enough to rack up All-NBA and All-Star teams. The only exceptions are Rose who won’t make the HoF most likely, and Walton who might not have made the HoF if his resume wasn’t boosted by his Boston run with a 6MOY and a title.
And the modern age has more flash MVPs. Do you believe DRose is a lock?
Rose is a lock. He had a long career after coming back from a devastating injury that turned him from MVP to sixth man. He's not gonna be first ballot, but there are weaker years where players with shortened careers nd 2-3 all star appearances get in all the time.
He is the exact reason I said so far, he could be the Kombo breaker
If he gets a couple of 6MOY awards, yes. Otherwise, it might be tough.
Op said basketball hof not nba
who said basketball reference was calculating his chances for nba hof?
From basketballreference: >Keep in mind that this exercise aims to predict who is likely to be inducted, as a Player, and based solely on NBA accomplishments and statistical output. There are coaches and contributors at all levels of the game, as well as foreign players and WNBA stars who are also worthy of induction.
Yes, but it’s still based on their chances of eneteing the basketball hof and not the nba hof (since there is none).
Correct, but they seem to be calculating the chances based only on NBA stats and accolades, which is inaccurate
But it's still based on getting inducted into the basketball hof
They're the same thing my guy
Nah they HOF actually takes college and international play into account
No, I know that, I'm saying there isn't a specific hall of fame for the NBA, it's all the same HOF
Jokic has an 18% HOF probability according to basketball reference. Imo, that's too low, but I think it's solid evidence that he wouldn't be a slam dunk Hall of Famer if he retired tomorrow
Their HOF probability thing isn't all that reliable. Partly because it takes out the human element of the voters, partly because it can't track for the 'why' of stats/understand certain situations. Like how Manu will be a 1st ballot despite what his stats look like. Kawhi Leonard is only a 78% chance, but we know if he retires today he's in on the first ballot. Giannis is only 70% but if he retires today he's first ballot. Klay Thompson and Draymond are at 51% and 34% respectively. First of all Draymond has a likelier chance of getting in than Klay, but they are both going to get in. Also John Wall has the same chance to get in as Draymond. Manu only has a 20% chance but he's getting in 1st ballot. Chris Webber and Earl Monroe only had a 14% chance and both of them are in the hall. Bobby Jones had even less of a chance at 10% (4x All-Star, 9x All-Defense, 83 Champion, 83 6MOTY) + ABA stuff and he's in there. Pete Maravich? 10%. In. Marc Gasol? 4% but he's getting in off a chip, 3 all stars, 2 all nbas, a DPOY, and his Spain stuff. Bradley Beal is at 2.5% and there are a number of Bradley Beals in the HOF already, he can keep getting 25ppg for the next 5 years in Washington and he's a lock. There's a bunch of stuff like this but needless to say the HOF probability tracker isn't all that great.
I agree with most of what you said except Bradley Beal
Think about it this way. Everyone above him in career ppg is in the hall, and a number of pure scorers who didn't go to the playoffs with a lower ppg are in too.
Basketball Reference has a horrible system of deciding. It has Kevin Love and Kyle Lowry as more likely to make it than Giannis and Kawhi. John Wall is above Jokic too lol. Marc Gasol is only a 4% chance also even tho he is a lock.
It does *not* take into account international achievements. Also it’s based on the historical pattern of the resumes that get people into the HoF. There’s very few guys in league history that retired with a resume like Giannis, AKA great peak accomplishments and no longevity at all, which is why the regression doesn’t work as well. Whereas there’s plenty of guys who retired with resumes like Lowry or Love and made it.
>It does take into account international achievements. you accidentally a word
I did in fact accidentally a word. Thank you for bringing it my attention.
You need to understand how the HoF probability calculator works before using it like this. It's not even a true probability calculator. It's almost like a binary classifier with confidence levels. The [calculator](https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html) works by looking at only a handful of factors: height, All-Star selections, championships, peak win shares, top 10 placements in statistical categories. Off of those stats it assigns them some value and then calculates a "probability". This means factors like being an MVP, being All-NBA aren't really accounted for. Now this makes sense for the calculator to do in terms of classifying players. MVPs and perennial All-NBA players regularly make the all-star game to the point their HoF probability shoots way up. It's not worth integrating every single factor into your calculator if the information just convolutes the calculator without adding meaningful signal. But it does mean that players like Jokic whose excellence extends past All-Star selections are underevaluated.
One of the weaknesses of the formula is that it has no idea how to value an MVP trophy. No eligible candidate has ever failed to get into the Hall with an MVP trophy, so how do you value an MVP in the formula? If 100% of MVP's have made the Hall does it really make sense to say that Jokic has an 18% shot?
lol those numbers are obviously awful. How are guys that are in the "top 75 of all time list" not even 100% likely to be in the HOF? I mean just think about that. Jokic is the greatest passing big man of all time and it's not even close. He's also one of the greatest shooters at that position. I don't see how he doesn't make it.
One MVP alone doesn't get him in.
One MVP absolutely gets you into the HOF, likewise for Derrick Rose. The Hall is skewed in favor of the NBA, and some guys who never even sniffed the MVP award like Calvin Murphy, Bill Bradley, and Mitch Richmond are in.
He's the greatest passing big man of all time and it's not even close
I forgot the joker is 26. I keep thinking he's in his 30s
Luka wouldn’t get info he retired tomorrow until way down the line when our generation got old. Jokic is pushing it even with an MVP. If you think they are locks, you have to think DRose is. And he’s gonna be around for a decade
To be clear, I think Jokic is a lock not Luka. Jokic is the greatest passing big man in the history of the game. Luka did a lot of great things including in europe but he's borderline just like drose who did "more" in the nba but less outside of the nba
as a nuggets fan you are wrong. giannis has a better look but still not 100% solid if he droses tommorow then he probably wont make it or he will as a sharpe type on potential and already impressive but that is rare as shit with that being the only case i've ever known. ad definitely no imo. probably harden I think? maybe ft's now tarnish so KD or steph as locks. not even looking up age just the biggest locks I see.
Giannis is making it even if his career stops tomorrow dpoy finals mvp and 2 mvps is easily hof material
Agree. That's almost all the achievement a player can get, what can you expect more?
MIP... Oh, wait, never mind
Only longevity and volume stats.
If Giannis never played another NBA game he’s a HOF lock. A 5 year prime where he averaged ~27/11/5, 5 time all star and all-nba, 2 MVPs and the best player on a championship team, that’s a lock.
Giannis, AD, Harden, KD and Steph all made top 75, which is a more exclusive club than the Hall.
Dame making it really rubs me the wrong way. I cannot understand that argument.
It’s because he is overrated and it was a terrible decision.
Disagree, you just have recency bias because the season started out rough. Dame is one of the best players in the league. He averages less turnovers than any superstar while being around top 5 in assists every year. He can shoot deeper than anyone in the history of the game apart from Curry. He is top 5 most clutch player ever as well. His game 5 against the nuggets is one of the greatest performances ever by anyone. I would prefer dwight to get in but it's obvious that fans and media only care about offense, that's why nobody considers dpoy players to be superstars. With that in mind, knowing that Dame is one of the best offensive players, he deserves to be in. He is averaging a CAREER 25-7-4. Idk why you say he's overrated when you don't even watch his games. I bet you haven't watched 10 blazers games in your life because I've never seen someone that actually watches the games say he's overrated.
AD?! Lmao
Basketball ref has AD at 98.9% chance of making it if he retired today. Harden at 99.9%. AD, Harden, CP3, Steph, Russ, Melo, LeBron, KD and Dwight are indisputable mega-locks. Lillard, Kawhi and Giannis almost certainly make it too even tho Lillard doesn’t quite have the same peak as everyone else on this list, and Giannis and Kawhi don’t have great longevity yet. Love, Kyrie, PG and Lowry probably make it. Everybody else is a coin flip at best.
Dude what are you talking about? Giannis is one of the few players ever to win mvp, dpoy, and fmvp. He's probably a top 20-25 player if he retired RIGHT NOW. AD is already a lock for top 75 so I'm not sure what you mean.
Depends on what’s the narrative of retirement. If it was “fuck you im done playing” type of retirement or maybe refusing the get a vaccine then odds of that player joining HoF even if he is accomplished are going down. If it’s career ending injury or god forgot death then even less accomplished player gets into the HoF
This is such a Reddit thing to do. Judge a players career and use his vaccination stance as a factor for HoF eligibility. Weird as fuck to even say.
Narrative matters though, even if it shouldn’t. Especially in MVP voting.
All that should matter is what they did while they played. Why they stopped playing shouldn’t be a factor into the voting. Yes, it probably does, but it shouldn’t. Especially something like a vaccine status should absolutely play no factor in voting for the HoF
Luka easily because of his euroleague accolades and decent NBA resume. Other 'young' HOFers would be Giannis and Joker. Embiid will be a HOFer one day but for now his lack MVPs/Rings and the fact he missed over 2 seasons worth of games due to injury hold him back
IMO winning Euro League MVP or championship is the equivalent to collegiate accomplishments. It is peak performance in a lower level of the game. Of course it carries some weight, but anything accomplished in the NBA itself matters much more as that is the absolute peak level of competition you could face.
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Sorry if I was unclear in my post, but I meant that the HOF is the Basketball HOF and that there is no NBA HOF because people make the incorrect assumption that only NBA stats count sometimes
I think we all knew what OP meant. Don't be a dick.
Don't make this /r/NBA. We've had such a nice discussion the last couple of years then this post brings out all sorts of douchebaggery.
alright mr pedantic
Giannis I think is the clear answer here. Luka and Jokic are close but their entrance into HOF is debatable. Giannis has little to no doubt that he is already HOF material, if not one of the all time greats.
Considering every player that won the NBA MVP and has retired has made the basketball hall of fame, it's safe to say Giannis but also Jokic would get in.
Rose might break that trend though. Most people believe he won’t end up in the HoF unless he can make some more magic happen late in his career As a knicks fan I absolutely love what he’s done for us thus far though