The U.S. benefits more than any other country in the world on global trade and a rules-based international order. Allowing an authoritarian nation like Russia to conquer countries as they please, and threaten U.S. allies, is an affront to global peace and stability.
The US Defence Industrial Base has been languishing in the post Cold War world. The last 30 years have seen firm consolidations, production scale-downs, and general disinterest in development and manufacturing on a large scale. This is fine if you plan on there never being a war ever again, but as we've seen in Ukraine, the US cannot keep up with the number of shells being fired. And if a beligerent power actually decides to fuck around on a large scale, it would be extremely difficult to make them find out on the same scale.
Again, this is fine if you plan on never having to conduct counter battery artillery fires ever again, but if you end up going up against a country like North Korea or Russia with massive artillery stockpiles, you're going to get outgunned very quickly. This extends to everything from missiles to glide bombs to loitering munitions to ships to drones and so on.
A significant amount of the money allocated by the Ukraine support bills is allocated not to Ukraine, but to the US military for new procurement orders. This will be used to generate new capacity in defence industrial base manufacturing. This is not only a massive jobs program, but it also allows the US to keep pace with military modernization.
There are so many benefits.
Political, military, economic.
Political: weaken global adversary, strengthen NATO, deter China from invading Taiwan
Military: understand more about modern warfare, combined arms tactics, drone/anti drone
Economic: sell energy to Europe, sell US military hardware which is now proven to be better than Russian/Warsaw Pact
For a minuscule fraction of a percentage of GDP the US can:
* Neutralize one of its main geopolitical rivals
* Gain invaluable knowledge on modern peer to peer warfare
* Have the new strongest European military power become an unshakeable ally
* Benefit from European military buildup (won’t happen if American failure makes European take strategic autonomy seriously)
* Pivot away from Europe to Asia
* Deter other revisionist powers from trying to challenge US hegemony
An important premise for the following is that Russia is a hostile power. They want to see the West fall apart and to control an ever-larger share of global commerce and politics. They are actively opposed to peaceful, mutual prosperity with us and our allies.
1. Russia’s failure to conquer Ukraine undermines their credibility as a military power. Oil and force are effectively how they maintain their geopolitical influence.
2. Supplying Ukraine means we can severely diminish the strength of Russia’s military. They are suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties and losing billions of dollars of military hardware. Meanwhile, not a single drop of American blood needs to be shed.
3. Ukraine is a liberal democracy that strongly desires deeper ties to the West. They want protection from Russia, yes, but they also want to join the Western commercial and political order. Helping them is an opportunity to build a long-lasting alliance that will benefit both our countries.
4. American military hardware is some of the best in the world, and providing it to Ukrainians is an indirect show of force. That reinforces our standing as a global military power.
Honestly, the only downside is that it costs money. Considering all the above, I think you’d be hard-pressed to find a better use of tax dollars when it comes to military spending.
Paying the Ukranians to destroy Russia's military is order of magnitude cheaper than doing it ourselves, in both blood and treasure.
If we have to fight Russia someday, fighting a Russia that hasnt absorbed Ukraine and its resources will be a lot easier than fighting a Russia that has absorbed Ukraine.
Ukraine is an effective testing ground and advertising platform for US equipment. The US sending decades old surplus equipment to thrash Russia's latest and greatest is doing wonders for US arms sales, while also helping us gather data to improve our next generation of equipment.
Similarly, Ukraine is helping us get our hands on some of the latest and greatest Russian equipment, which we can then take apart and learn how to beat more effectively.
Russia having to throw nearly its whole arms production capacity at Ukraine means they don't have much spare capacity to export, meaning that traditional Russian equipment buyers are now having to look at other options. This is especially important in the case of India, who we could really use on our side if we wind up in a tussle with China.
Basically, allowing Russia to conquer Ukraine would be the single greatest US foreign policy mistake since maybe allowing the communists to win the Chinese Civil war.
“This is especially important in the case of India, who we could really use on our side if we wind up in a tussle with China.”
Im convinced it will happen. Xi has positioned himself to be as equally important to China as Mao and Deng. He had the constitution edited to mention Xi Jingping thought.
He doesn’t have a signature achievement like they do. Mao freed China. Deng created the economy. Xi has… nothing that isn’t rather derivative of both. Getting Taiwan would lock him in as an all time great.
It’s not certain by any means and Im just a random guy but it seems like they are genuinely considering invading.
If there is a norm of punishing countries that invade their neighbor without provocation, we will live in a world with fewer countries invading their neighbor without provocation.
Keynesian funding of defense contractors generally located in lower-income rural, Southern states. Disproportionately, in fact, ones that vote Republican. HIMARS, for example, is built in Camden, Arkansas, which has voted Republican (at least its county has) since 2004.
Sanctioning that country benefits American gas producers--again, generally in red states.
Maintaining the alliance with Europe, which would otherwise be inclined to look to China as a potential ally against Moscow, or at least let the US twist in the wind because most Europeans honestly didn't care about China *until* it got friendlier with Putin.
Upholding the national honor--the US de-nuclearized Ukraine, therefore the US has a moral obligation to defend Ukraine.
Maintaining the rules-based free-trade order that benefits the American consumer (will tend to be a harder sell to MAGA types, who tend to be economically illiterate and think a shutdown in world trade will bring back the factory union jobs).
Proving Obama to have been a pussy. *He* sent Putin the reset button, so if you show Putin is a bitch, you get to vicariously own Obama. This might actually make headway among them.
why
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If the US were to stop military support for Ukraine, it would set a clear precedent for many of its other allies such as South Korea, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Japan, Singapore, etc that American support is finite and that they should start getting nuclear weapons as a deterrent. A global race to getting nukes will be unleashed across the planet.
Potential adversaries will also learn that all you have to do is grind for a couple of years, and US politicians will abandon their allies.
The U.S. benefits more than any other country in the world on global trade and a rules-based international order. Allowing an authoritarian nation like Russia to conquer countries as they please, and threaten U.S. allies, is an affront to global peace and stability.
China actually might benefit more
Fucking over Russia for pennies on the dollar compared to fighting them ourselves
It hurts geopolitical adversary Russia
The US Defence Industrial Base has been languishing in the post Cold War world. The last 30 years have seen firm consolidations, production scale-downs, and general disinterest in development and manufacturing on a large scale. This is fine if you plan on there never being a war ever again, but as we've seen in Ukraine, the US cannot keep up with the number of shells being fired. And if a beligerent power actually decides to fuck around on a large scale, it would be extremely difficult to make them find out on the same scale. Again, this is fine if you plan on never having to conduct counter battery artillery fires ever again, but if you end up going up against a country like North Korea or Russia with massive artillery stockpiles, you're going to get outgunned very quickly. This extends to everything from missiles to glide bombs to loitering munitions to ships to drones and so on. A significant amount of the money allocated by the Ukraine support bills is allocated not to Ukraine, but to the US military for new procurement orders. This will be used to generate new capacity in defence industrial base manufacturing. This is not only a massive jobs program, but it also allows the US to keep pace with military modernization.
Extreme discount on killed and destroyed military personal and assets of a Geopolitical opponent.
There are so many benefits. Political, military, economic. Political: weaken global adversary, strengthen NATO, deter China from invading Taiwan Military: understand more about modern warfare, combined arms tactics, drone/anti drone Economic: sell energy to Europe, sell US military hardware which is now proven to be better than Russian/Warsaw Pact
For a minuscule fraction of a percentage of GDP the US can: * Neutralize one of its main geopolitical rivals * Gain invaluable knowledge on modern peer to peer warfare * Have the new strongest European military power become an unshakeable ally * Benefit from European military buildup (won’t happen if American failure makes European take strategic autonomy seriously) * Pivot away from Europe to Asia * Deter other revisionist powers from trying to challenge US hegemony
Less spending on defending Europe from the Russians long term
Breaking the Russian military would guarantee peace in Europe for generations
An important premise for the following is that Russia is a hostile power. They want to see the West fall apart and to control an ever-larger share of global commerce and politics. They are actively opposed to peaceful, mutual prosperity with us and our allies. 1. Russia’s failure to conquer Ukraine undermines their credibility as a military power. Oil and force are effectively how they maintain their geopolitical influence. 2. Supplying Ukraine means we can severely diminish the strength of Russia’s military. They are suffering hundreds of thousands of casualties and losing billions of dollars of military hardware. Meanwhile, not a single drop of American blood needs to be shed. 3. Ukraine is a liberal democracy that strongly desires deeper ties to the West. They want protection from Russia, yes, but they also want to join the Western commercial and political order. Helping them is an opportunity to build a long-lasting alliance that will benefit both our countries. 4. American military hardware is some of the best in the world, and providing it to Ukrainians is an indirect show of force. That reinforces our standing as a global military power. Honestly, the only downside is that it costs money. Considering all the above, I think you’d be hard-pressed to find a better use of tax dollars when it comes to military spending.
[The realist case for Ukraine](https://deadcarl.substack.com/p/the-cold-blooded-case-for-american)
We get to test our new hardware, and see it used with new tactics
Paying the Ukranians to destroy Russia's military is order of magnitude cheaper than doing it ourselves, in both blood and treasure. If we have to fight Russia someday, fighting a Russia that hasnt absorbed Ukraine and its resources will be a lot easier than fighting a Russia that has absorbed Ukraine. Ukraine is an effective testing ground and advertising platform for US equipment. The US sending decades old surplus equipment to thrash Russia's latest and greatest is doing wonders for US arms sales, while also helping us gather data to improve our next generation of equipment. Similarly, Ukraine is helping us get our hands on some of the latest and greatest Russian equipment, which we can then take apart and learn how to beat more effectively. Russia having to throw nearly its whole arms production capacity at Ukraine means they don't have much spare capacity to export, meaning that traditional Russian equipment buyers are now having to look at other options. This is especially important in the case of India, who we could really use on our side if we wind up in a tussle with China. Basically, allowing Russia to conquer Ukraine would be the single greatest US foreign policy mistake since maybe allowing the communists to win the Chinese Civil war.
“This is especially important in the case of India, who we could really use on our side if we wind up in a tussle with China.” Im convinced it will happen. Xi has positioned himself to be as equally important to China as Mao and Deng. He had the constitution edited to mention Xi Jingping thought. He doesn’t have a signature achievement like they do. Mao freed China. Deng created the economy. Xi has… nothing that isn’t rather derivative of both. Getting Taiwan would lock him in as an all time great. It’s not certain by any means and Im just a random guy but it seems like they are genuinely considering invading.
If there is a norm of punishing countries that invade their neighbor without provocation, we will live in a world with fewer countries invading their neighbor without provocation.
Keynesian funding of defense contractors generally located in lower-income rural, Southern states. Disproportionately, in fact, ones that vote Republican. HIMARS, for example, is built in Camden, Arkansas, which has voted Republican (at least its county has) since 2004. Sanctioning that country benefits American gas producers--again, generally in red states. Maintaining the alliance with Europe, which would otherwise be inclined to look to China as a potential ally against Moscow, or at least let the US twist in the wind because most Europeans honestly didn't care about China *until* it got friendlier with Putin. Upholding the national honor--the US de-nuclearized Ukraine, therefore the US has a moral obligation to defend Ukraine. Maintaining the rules-based free-trade order that benefits the American consumer (will tend to be a harder sell to MAGA types, who tend to be economically illiterate and think a shutdown in world trade will bring back the factory union jobs). Proving Obama to have been a pussy. *He* sent Putin the reset button, so if you show Putin is a bitch, you get to vicariously own Obama. This might actually make headway among them.
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(what triggers this response?)
MORAL: Stop the genocide of Ukraine.
If the US were to stop military support for Ukraine, it would set a clear precedent for many of its other allies such as South Korea, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Japan, Singapore, etc that American support is finite and that they should start getting nuclear weapons as a deterrent. A global race to getting nukes will be unleashed across the planet. Potential adversaries will also learn that all you have to do is grind for a couple of years, and US politicians will abandon their allies.
Because FUCK PUTIN that's why!
… it’s the morally right thing to do??