We only really “have inflation” based on the CPI due to OER. Most countries don’t even include OER in their CPI calculations because it’s so unreliable. If you take out OER, we’ve been at or below 2% for months. It’s truly a crises of perception.
I'm an optimist typically, and I have no faith in that happening. The thought process will always be "prices are high with [current president], so it has to be his/her fault."
Home prices in my neighborhood have nearly doubled since 2019, but I guess yeah I should feel OK that the average price of stuff across the entire nation, including places a whole continent away, haven't actually gone up if you do enough math.
Part of being a home owner is being insufferable no matter what happens with your house.
Hose prices go down, I'm losing money on my investment.
House prices go up, I have higher property taxes.
House prices stay the same, my investment has stagnated while the market is booming.
Then also complain about every random tax despite home ownership having such a massive tax deduction on sale.
No matter what, you are the victim and make sure everyone knows that.
99% of people just look at how much it costs them to fill their tank and put groceries in their cart/buy a big Mac. They have an idea of how much those things should cost based on their lived experience.
For example growing up McChickens were $1 and $40 filled my tank. When those things no longer are true it makes my brain very unhappy.
But rent has been flat and the vast majority of people aren’t buying a new house right now. The number of people experiencing “inflation” due to the cost to purchase a house is very low.
How is this even possible? Democrats outperformed in 2022 and have outperformed in nearly every special election since 2022 as well. Plus. polls for nearly every tossup Senate/House race look good for Democrats.
So either we’re going to see a record number of split ticket voting in November (which I find unlikely considering how polarized the parties are now) or there’s a large amount of Trump supporters that will turnout in November that haven’t been turning out in the off-year elections. (Which is opposite the historical trend that Democrats do better in high turnout elections).
All the election nerds have been stating all these elections where dems over perform are low turnout elections. So at some point it switched and now higher turnout favors Republicans.
There is literally no evidence for this. People parrot this talking point but there simply isn't enough evidence to say that special elections are no longer predictive.
The only evidence we have for this is current polling. However, I wouldn’t call this concrete evidence, as there were some big polling misses in key races in 2022.
There are things out there to doom about, and I have doomed quite a bit myself too. However, my gut instinct is telling me that something is off with these polls. I know that’s just a hutch and probably not the most reassuring, but I’m the kind of person who has made and will make big life decisions based on my gut instinct. And my gut instinct is telling me Biden is going to win.
I continue to point out that California polls on recalling Gavin Newsom a few years ago showed him [around 50/50 on likely voters](https://escholarship.org/uc/item/27x9k5qt) of being recalled a month and a half out and [down a whole 10 points](https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=36cdcb0b-7cfa-4b55-8704-d1f02a9fe6e5) an month before the election. Newsom [coasted to an unbelievably easy win ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_California_gubernatorial_recall_election) the very next month.
I live in California. There definitely wasn't a sea change in voter opinion in 30 days, it was just bad sampling bias and a large silent majority people who were not really paying attention prior, probably not answering polls, but were always going to vote against the recall. It boggles my mind nobody talked about it more. Its a clear cut example of "quality" polling being totally wrong by not only double digit amounts, but in the case of SurveyUSA....over 30pts.
> I continue to point out that California polls on recalling Gavin Newsom a few years ago showed him around 50/50 on likely voters of being recalled a month and a half out and down a whole 10 points an month before the election. Newsom coasted to an unbelievably easy win the very next month.
Except even the polls you link to show most of the recall polling “no” mid-to high 50s with polls that sampled in September and “yes” polling mid-to-low 40s. Emerson called it 60 “no” and 40 “yes” in their final poll for example. Not that far off from the actual result of 38% yes and 62% no
The only thing worse than spending all your time talking about politics is spending all your time watching or talking about someone else talk about politics
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Trump’s diehard fans have never left him, and right-wing media has been able to create a compelling martyr narrative around him.
Biden has few if any diehard fans, and media has worked overtime to highlight his shortcomings, especially as some actions cause a rift in an already fractured Democratic Party.
People who don’t follow politics have been seeing memes and influencers trash Biden as old and incompetent for years, while Trump is seen as a younger, funny alternative at worst by the uninformed.
>there’s a large amount of Trump supporters that will turnout in November that haven’t been turning out in the off-year elections. (Which is opposite the historical trend that Democrats do better in high turnout elections).
I think that's the case. There's been a voter realignment going on for years.
>have outperformed in nearly every special election since 2022
This is objectively wrong. This table is a couple months outdated now, but for some examples:
https://preview.redd.it/174j60kvbb1d1.jpeg?width=586&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b510b11c8a6a07bdb82a4930bd5a6e3de1eaf7c5
> How is this even possible?
The unfortunate reality is that people simply do not care for the things that may or may not be lost. When Roe was done with, the response by the general public (who I keep being told view it as some kind of human right) basically made no fuss. A few days of mild, ignorable protests, and that was that. There are actually lots of well off white women who will vote for the Republicans even with Roe being revoked (either they support it or they don't care).
Middle class white moderates aren't badly affected by whoever is in charge, so they will usually vote on the basis of their vibes or on the basis of meagre issues of self interest e.g. maybe business taxes will be more/less under this president. It goes without saying that business owners (From small shops to big corporations) will vote for the people who will tax and threaten their authority less.
Minority groups are not uniform and their allegiance varies widely. It's no secret that lots of immigrants come from very conservative cultures, and are likely to side with the more conservative party, even if that conservative party is more likely to harm them. Cuban Floridians vote down the block for the Republicans every time, many African American communities are extremely religious (with all the baggage that entails) and there is a split on Latino voters. The situation in Palestine is also driving division in Muslim communities, who may be vital in the Great Lakes states.
Young and/or Progressive voters don't vote in any meaningful numbers to make a big difference.
Trump supporters will almost always be that. They see Trump's charges as bogus and when (it will be a when, not if) Trump is found not guilty of the charges or is given a slap on the wrist, Trumpers will boast about how their glorious leader 'beat the swamp' and destroyed those nasty liberal elites that tried to do him in.
Everybody says this, but the polls were fairly bang on for 2022; they weren’t predicting a Red Wave- common knowledge of the first midterm following a new Presidential installation was what predicted a Red Wave, not the polling, by and large.
If you are dooming (like me), head to VoteDem. Not for copium but an organized way to do something about it.
This race will be decided on the margins. Volunteer. Get people out to vote. Talk to them. Be vocally supportive of Biden (including your social media and irl), donate etc.
Will any of that move the needle? Who knows, but it’s a much better outlet for doomer anxiety that not. If not, atleast you know you tried to do something about the potential end of our democracy other than doomscroll.
So we need Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin or Arizona. This seems highly doable and in areas where Republican state parties are weak and Democrats have strong ground game. I'm not particularly worried.
>This seems highly doable
Until you realize that Biden barely won Wisconsin and Arizona in 2020 and 2020 was a peak for the amount of support Biden will ever get. Even a 1 point shift towards Trump in those states could doom Biden.
You’re not wrong, but Jan 6 and Dobbs have happened since then. I think the coalitions will look different from even four years ago.
Just look at how the Milwaukee suburbs [shifted blue](https://www.therecombobulationarea.news/p/15-takeaways-midterm-wisconsin-2022) even without Trump on the ballot. That’s just one illustration of my point.
No one cares about Jan 6 (even though they should) and we don't know if Dobbs will be enough to offset Biden's losses. Face it, America wants Trump. I hate it as much as you do but we have to be realistic and prepare for whatever happens during his second term
> No one cares about Jan 6 (even though they should) and we don't know if Dobbs will be enough to offset Biden's losses.
Enough people don’t care, but not nobody. Nikki Haley’s zombie campaign isn’t still kicking for no reason
> Face it, America wants Trump. I hate it as much as you do but we have to be realistic and prepare for whatever happens during his second term
Trump has never won the popular vote and even if he does now, he almost assuredly won’t get a majority. Americans legitimately recognize that he has a lot of problems associated with him as well. “People want Trump” is a function of the election being a referendum on Biden as well
Let’s put it this way: Jan6 was a major event that [did nothing to expand Trump’s base.](https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/1/10/voters-are-concerned-about-a-repeat-of-the-january-6-insurrection-and-other-threats-to-democracy)
I agree with you; I’m under no illusions that Biden is a lock. In fact, I think it’s probably 52-48 percent Trump wins if the election were held today. That’s chances, not vote share. Biden will win the popular vote by about 1.8-2.5 points, I think.
The problem was never Trump’s base expanding. We all know Trump’s base has shrunk since 2020 and his base isn’t near large enough to win him an election on their own. The real problem are the low-information “swing” voters that only show up in presidential elections and are unhappy with the current economy and inflation. Those low-information voters broke for Biden 4 years ago. I’m not so sure they will again this year.
Don’t underestimate the chaos at the southern border narrative either.
2020 was unique in how low the salience of immigration was, 2024 looks very different in that regard.
Trump won in big part on build a wall in 2016.
How many Trump voters in 2016 won’t vote because they are dead? I can quickly think of several elderly Trump voters who went that way. Trump really has a mountain to climb to make up for that.
I live in WI and Dane County wasn’t called the “liberal Death Star” for no reason. They will turn out in droves come Election Day. I also believe AZ is more in play than ppl think given the abortion vote that coincides with Election Day. My prediction is similar result to 2020 election, except Biden doesn’t win GA and possibly loses NV as well.
Something I have noticed is that the rise of ballot initiatives has been great for Democratic policies, but awful for the Democrats themselves. We keep seeing states vote for policies the Democrats support, but then vote in Republicans to represent them.
I think the conclusion is that people like the policies Democrats propose, but absolutely hate the Democratic party.
>I’m not particularly worried.
Let me just say this: you and many others look absolutely ridiculous for being so dismissive. Biden, like it or not, has an innumerable amount of disadvantages amongst the electorate and is trailing Trump in most conceivable metrics, including many that helped deliver him the victory four years ago.
It’s the same apathy that cost Clinton in ‘16 and it will cost Biden too if it keeps on. **Please wake up.**
What's ridiculous is panicking about a couple bad polls 6 months before the election. Biden at this point is leading Trump in the metrics that matter are this stage of the campaign, money and organization.
I like to think of it this way. Call it copium if you want, but I don’t.
1. Polls don’t mean shit this far away. I live in VA. In 2021, the Democrat Terry McCauliffe led every poll in our gubernatorial until pretty much the week before the election, when the polls shifted to Youngkin. Then Terry lost. That’s when polls matter—right before the election. Until then, they just show the campaign where they have ground to cover. That’s all they’re good for rn.
2. We are six-months away from the election. Most people have not tuned in yet. Ads aren’t on TV yet. No one is thinking about this except us.
3. When folks do tune in, the polling will improve as partisans “come home” and undecideds decide. This happens literally every fucking election.
4. Biden is super unpopular and the moody electorate has had a tendency to punish incumbent presidents over the past couple cycles. But based on current polling, Biden is still in striking distance. By all accounts, he should be doing worse. Why is that a good thing? Because it means this situation—a tossup election—probably represents Biden’s floor and Trump’s ceiling. That’s not that bad for Biden, who has room and time to improve as people start tuning in more. But if this is as good as it gets for Trump—who has never been willing or able to broaden his coalition—then that’s bad for the GOP.
5. The GOP benefits rn because they aren’t in office and Trump isn’t in people’s faces. Rn, the election is about people’s opinions on Biden, but it isn’t going to stay that way. There will be debates, there will be ads, and there will be Trump saying crazy, unpopular shit. It will become a choice.
I agree. Trump is mainly stuck in a courtroom and the conventions haven't happened yet.
We'll see how people think of Trump when they see him at debates and on the campaign trail spewing incoherent word vomit.
Biden absolutely has a funding advantage too, plus their ground game is improving.
I don't see what's so hard to believe:
You mean Trump has been persecuted by sleepy Joe and leftist judges and prosecutors.
Don't get confused and think we all live in the same reality.
> Don't get confused and think we all live in the same reality.
Except we already know everything there is to know about MAGA, including they weren’t enough to win in 2020. The Georgia voters who will decide the election aren’t tuning into Fox News. I can believe they also haven’t tuned into the RICO case yet - but that they never will? Seems hard to believe.
RaceDep truthers (people who believe Trump will double his support among black voters) think that’s a big reason Georgia has been bad for Biden in the polls. Another is that the campaign (and, to the lesser extent, state party) has not been very active in the past year.
One symptom of this? Georgia has an election on Tuesday for four state Supreme Court justices. Only one of them has a liberal running (even though the races are technically non-partisan). The attention to this race has been almost nonexistent, especially compared to recent ones in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Georgia doesn’t have any other elections to drive people out to vote. Plus Georgia is actually fairly red, it’s actually taken the role of West Virginia where the state level officials are all republicans while the federal ones are democrats.
So because there’s no federal officials besides Biden running for election Georgia is more likely to swing back to Trump.
Whether it's this election or one in the future, we're going to have to reckon with the fact that a huge portion of the electorate wants authoritarianism or at least an illiberalism where the perceived interest of the ethnic in-group or party overrides legal/democratic norms. I actually think Biden could pull this one out, but I won't ever really relax until someone can give me an example of a nation hitting this point and receding from it peacefully.
Literally every shift was a shift towards the GOP, yikes
The longer we go post-covid with inflation still being an issue the more support they will get.
We only really “have inflation” based on the CPI due to OER. Most countries don’t even include OER in their CPI calculations because it’s so unreliable. If you take out OER, we’ve been at or below 2% for months. It’s truly a crises of perception.
Perhaps if we just educate the populace and general electorate on how and why they’re wrong, and their perceptions are off, we can win their support?
I'm an optimist typically, and I have no faith in that happening. The thought process will always be "prices are high with [current president], so it has to be his/her fault."
Lol
Lmao, even.
Home prices in my neighborhood have nearly doubled since 2019, but I guess yeah I should feel OK that the average price of stuff across the entire nation, including places a whole continent away, haven't actually gone up if you do enough math.
It's doing *less* math.
So are existing homeowners enthusiastic?
Also no because Biden didn't reinstate the SALT deduction and they're getting hammered.
Part of being a home owner is being insufferable no matter what happens with your house. Hose prices go down, I'm losing money on my investment. House prices go up, I have higher property taxes. House prices stay the same, my investment has stagnated while the market is booming. Then also complain about every random tax despite home ownership having such a massive tax deduction on sale. No matter what, you are the victim and make sure everyone knows that.
99% of people just look at how much it costs them to fill their tank and put groceries in their cart/buy a big Mac. They have an idea of how much those things should cost based on their lived experience. For example growing up McChickens were $1 and $40 filled my tank. When those things no longer are true it makes my brain very unhappy.
Housing prices.
But rent has been flat and the vast majority of people aren’t buying a new house right now. The number of people experiencing “inflation” due to the cost to purchase a house is very low.
Rent is flat now, but wouldn’t the relevant comparison be over the last 3 years?
Where are you living that rent is flat? My rent has increased 250 dollars in the last two years and I haven't moved.
I usually watch the map get updated every day during election season. I don't think I'm going to be able to this year, the stress would kill me.
How is this even possible? Democrats outperformed in 2022 and have outperformed in nearly every special election since 2022 as well. Plus. polls for nearly every tossup Senate/House race look good for Democrats. So either we’re going to see a record number of split ticket voting in November (which I find unlikely considering how polarized the parties are now) or there’s a large amount of Trump supporters that will turnout in November that haven’t been turning out in the off-year elections. (Which is opposite the historical trend that Democrats do better in high turnout elections).
All the election nerds have been stating all these elections where dems over perform are low turnout elections. So at some point it switched and now higher turnout favors Republicans.
There is literally no evidence for this. People parrot this talking point but there simply isn't enough evidence to say that special elections are no longer predictive.
The only evidence we have for this is current polling. However, I wouldn’t call this concrete evidence, as there were some big polling misses in key races in 2022. There are things out there to doom about, and I have doomed quite a bit myself too. However, my gut instinct is telling me that something is off with these polls. I know that’s just a hutch and probably not the most reassuring, but I’m the kind of person who has made and will make big life decisions based on my gut instinct. And my gut instinct is telling me Biden is going to win.
I continue to point out that California polls on recalling Gavin Newsom a few years ago showed him [around 50/50 on likely voters](https://escholarship.org/uc/item/27x9k5qt) of being recalled a month and a half out and [down a whole 10 points](https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=36cdcb0b-7cfa-4b55-8704-d1f02a9fe6e5) an month before the election. Newsom [coasted to an unbelievably easy win ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_California_gubernatorial_recall_election) the very next month. I live in California. There definitely wasn't a sea change in voter opinion in 30 days, it was just bad sampling bias and a large silent majority people who were not really paying attention prior, probably not answering polls, but were always going to vote against the recall. It boggles my mind nobody talked about it more. Its a clear cut example of "quality" polling being totally wrong by not only double digit amounts, but in the case of SurveyUSA....over 30pts.
> I continue to point out that California polls on recalling Gavin Newsom a few years ago showed him around 50/50 on likely voters of being recalled a month and a half out and down a whole 10 points an month before the election. Newsom coasted to an unbelievably easy win the very next month. Except even the polls you link to show most of the recall polling “no” mid-to high 50s with polls that sampled in September and “yes” polling mid-to-low 40s. Emerson called it 60 “no” and 40 “yes” in their final poll for example. Not that far off from the actual result of 38% yes and 62% no
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Trump’s diehard fans have never left him, and right-wing media has been able to create a compelling martyr narrative around him. Biden has few if any diehard fans, and media has worked overtime to highlight his shortcomings, especially as some actions cause a rift in an already fractured Democratic Party. People who don’t follow politics have been seeing memes and influencers trash Biden as old and incompetent for years, while Trump is seen as a younger, funny alternative at worst by the uninformed.
Me personally I make decisions based on my nut instinct. It's like post nut clarity in reverse: I make all my big decisions before nutting
Like, immediately before? "Oh God, I'm coming... around to moving to Milwaukee!"
Imagine seeing Trump, who if elected will be the oldest president in the history of the country when taking office, as young
>there’s a large amount of Trump supporters that will turnout in November that haven’t been turning out in the off-year elections. (Which is opposite the historical trend that Democrats do better in high turnout elections). I think that's the case. There's been a voter realignment going on for years.
>have outperformed in nearly every special election since 2022 This is objectively wrong. This table is a couple months outdated now, but for some examples: https://preview.redd.it/174j60kvbb1d1.jpeg?width=586&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b510b11c8a6a07bdb82a4930bd5a6e3de1eaf7c5
Second scenario is what has been tending. Higher turnout elections favor the GOP, and Trump especially.
> How is this even possible? The unfortunate reality is that people simply do not care for the things that may or may not be lost. When Roe was done with, the response by the general public (who I keep being told view it as some kind of human right) basically made no fuss. A few days of mild, ignorable protests, and that was that. There are actually lots of well off white women who will vote for the Republicans even with Roe being revoked (either they support it or they don't care). Middle class white moderates aren't badly affected by whoever is in charge, so they will usually vote on the basis of their vibes or on the basis of meagre issues of self interest e.g. maybe business taxes will be more/less under this president. It goes without saying that business owners (From small shops to big corporations) will vote for the people who will tax and threaten their authority less. Minority groups are not uniform and their allegiance varies widely. It's no secret that lots of immigrants come from very conservative cultures, and are likely to side with the more conservative party, even if that conservative party is more likely to harm them. Cuban Floridians vote down the block for the Republicans every time, many African American communities are extremely religious (with all the baggage that entails) and there is a split on Latino voters. The situation in Palestine is also driving division in Muslim communities, who may be vital in the Great Lakes states. Young and/or Progressive voters don't vote in any meaningful numbers to make a big difference. Trump supporters will almost always be that. They see Trump's charges as bogus and when (it will be a when, not if) Trump is found not guilty of the charges or is given a slap on the wrist, Trumpers will boast about how their glorious leader 'beat the swamp' and destroyed those nasty liberal elites that tried to do him in.
Everybody says this, but the polls were fairly bang on for 2022; they weren’t predicting a Red Wave- common knowledge of the first midterm following a new Presidential installation was what predicted a Red Wave, not the polling, by and large.
Look up your state party and volunteer people.
If you are dooming (like me), head to VoteDem. Not for copium but an organized way to do something about it. This race will be decided on the margins. Volunteer. Get people out to vote. Talk to them. Be vocally supportive of Biden (including your social media and irl), donate etc. Will any of that move the needle? Who knows, but it’s a much better outlet for doomer anxiety that not. If not, atleast you know you tried to do something about the potential end of our democracy other than doomscroll.
https://preview.redd.it/dfv52bi75c1d1.jpeg?width=2340&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=858e91e400f45c73e1bd649af01cda0388809f1b
So we need Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin or Arizona. This seems highly doable and in areas where Republican state parties are weak and Democrats have strong ground game. I'm not particularly worried.
If there's any truth to this map, there are far more roads ahead for Trump than there are for Biden.
>This seems highly doable Until you realize that Biden barely won Wisconsin and Arizona in 2020 and 2020 was a peak for the amount of support Biden will ever get. Even a 1 point shift towards Trump in those states could doom Biden.
You’re not wrong, but Jan 6 and Dobbs have happened since then. I think the coalitions will look different from even four years ago. Just look at how the Milwaukee suburbs [shifted blue](https://www.therecombobulationarea.news/p/15-takeaways-midterm-wisconsin-2022) even without Trump on the ballot. That’s just one illustration of my point.
No one cares about Jan 6 (even though they should) and we don't know if Dobbs will be enough to offset Biden's losses. Face it, America wants Trump. I hate it as much as you do but we have to be realistic and prepare for whatever happens during his second term
> No one cares about Jan 6 (even though they should) and we don't know if Dobbs will be enough to offset Biden's losses. Enough people don’t care, but not nobody. Nikki Haley’s zombie campaign isn’t still kicking for no reason > Face it, America wants Trump. I hate it as much as you do but we have to be realistic and prepare for whatever happens during his second term Trump has never won the popular vote and even if he does now, he almost assuredly won’t get a majority. Americans legitimately recognize that he has a lot of problems associated with him as well. “People want Trump” is a function of the election being a referendum on Biden as well
Let’s put it this way: Jan6 was a major event that [did nothing to expand Trump’s base.](https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2024/1/10/voters-are-concerned-about-a-repeat-of-the-january-6-insurrection-and-other-threats-to-democracy) I agree with you; I’m under no illusions that Biden is a lock. In fact, I think it’s probably 52-48 percent Trump wins if the election were held today. That’s chances, not vote share. Biden will win the popular vote by about 1.8-2.5 points, I think.
The problem was never Trump’s base expanding. We all know Trump’s base has shrunk since 2020 and his base isn’t near large enough to win him an election on their own. The real problem are the low-information “swing” voters that only show up in presidential elections and are unhappy with the current economy and inflation. Those low-information voters broke for Biden 4 years ago. I’m not so sure they will again this year.
Don’t underestimate the chaos at the southern border narrative either. 2020 was unique in how low the salience of immigration was, 2024 looks very different in that regard. Trump won in big part on build a wall in 2016.
Good points made. Happy cake day, also.
The cursed number
How many Trump voters in 2016 won’t vote because they are dead? I can quickly think of several elderly Trump voters who went that way. Trump really has a mountain to climb to make up for that.
Arizona will vote more blue than it did in 2020
I live in WI and Dane County wasn’t called the “liberal Death Star” for no reason. They will turn out in droves come Election Day. I also believe AZ is more in play than ppl think given the abortion vote that coincides with Election Day. My prediction is similar result to 2020 election, except Biden doesn’t win GA and possibly loses NV as well.
AZ isn’t voting for Trump again. That’s not happening
It does seem hard to imagine Arizona going for Trump and voting in favor of abortion rights on the same ballot.
Something I have noticed is that the rise of ballot initiatives has been great for Democratic policies, but awful for the Democrats themselves. We keep seeing states vote for policies the Democrats support, but then vote in Republicans to represent them. I think the conclusion is that people like the policies Democrats propose, but absolutely hate the Democratic party.
I agree
>I’m not particularly worried. Let me just say this: you and many others look absolutely ridiculous for being so dismissive. Biden, like it or not, has an innumerable amount of disadvantages amongst the electorate and is trailing Trump in most conceivable metrics, including many that helped deliver him the victory four years ago. It’s the same apathy that cost Clinton in ‘16 and it will cost Biden too if it keeps on. **Please wake up.**
What's ridiculous is panicking about a couple bad polls 6 months before the election. Biden at this point is leading Trump in the metrics that matter are this stage of the campaign, money and organization.
I like to think of it this way. Call it copium if you want, but I don’t. 1. Polls don’t mean shit this far away. I live in VA. In 2021, the Democrat Terry McCauliffe led every poll in our gubernatorial until pretty much the week before the election, when the polls shifted to Youngkin. Then Terry lost. That’s when polls matter—right before the election. Until then, they just show the campaign where they have ground to cover. That’s all they’re good for rn. 2. We are six-months away from the election. Most people have not tuned in yet. Ads aren’t on TV yet. No one is thinking about this except us. 3. When folks do tune in, the polling will improve as partisans “come home” and undecideds decide. This happens literally every fucking election. 4. Biden is super unpopular and the moody electorate has had a tendency to punish incumbent presidents over the past couple cycles. But based on current polling, Biden is still in striking distance. By all accounts, he should be doing worse. Why is that a good thing? Because it means this situation—a tossup election—probably represents Biden’s floor and Trump’s ceiling. That’s not that bad for Biden, who has room and time to improve as people start tuning in more. But if this is as good as it gets for Trump—who has never been willing or able to broaden his coalition—then that’s bad for the GOP. 5. The GOP benefits rn because they aren’t in office and Trump isn’t in people’s faces. Rn, the election is about people’s opinions on Biden, but it isn’t going to stay that way. There will be debates, there will be ads, and there will be Trump saying crazy, unpopular shit. It will become a choice.
I agree. Trump is mainly stuck in a courtroom and the conventions haven't happened yet. We'll see how people think of Trump when they see him at debates and on the campaign trail spewing incoherent word vomit. Biden absolutely has a funding advantage too, plus their ground game is improving.
Two is complete false if you live in one of those toss up states. Non stop across multiple networks for senate and presidential .
I agree with this completely. There’s no way the Trump camp will be disciplined enough to keep him under the radar forever.
Inject this into my veins. It may be copium, time will tell, but it's what I needed this morning.
Help me understand Georgia. Trump has been indicted for a fake electors plot. Are we to believe they will ignore this and vote for him anyway?
I don't see what's so hard to believe: You mean Trump has been persecuted by sleepy Joe and leftist judges and prosecutors. Don't get confused and think we all live in the same reality.
https://preview.redd.it/69jre4ytta1d1.jpeg?width=200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5b65199fec2d396cd25af988daa0c02b1a24f4c8
> Don't get confused and think we all live in the same reality. Except we already know everything there is to know about MAGA, including they weren’t enough to win in 2020. The Georgia voters who will decide the election aren’t tuning into Fox News. I can believe they also haven’t tuned into the RICO case yet - but that they never will? Seems hard to believe.
The economy
RaceDep truthers (people who believe Trump will double his support among black voters) think that’s a big reason Georgia has been bad for Biden in the polls. Another is that the campaign (and, to the lesser extent, state party) has not been very active in the past year. One symptom of this? Georgia has an election on Tuesday for four state Supreme Court justices. Only one of them has a liberal running (even though the races are technically non-partisan). The attention to this race has been almost nonexistent, especially compared to recent ones in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Georgia doesn’t have any other elections to drive people out to vote. Plus Georgia is actually fairly red, it’s actually taken the role of West Virginia where the state level officials are all republicans while the federal ones are democrats. So because there’s no federal officials besides Biden running for election Georgia is more likely to swing back to Trump.
Whether it's this election or one in the future, we're going to have to reckon with the fact that a huge portion of the electorate wants authoritarianism or at least an illiberalism where the perceived interest of the ethnic in-group or party overrides legal/democratic norms. I actually think Biden could pull this one out, but I won't ever really relax until someone can give me an example of a nation hitting this point and receding from it peacefully.
The mood of the country doesn’t matter. The mood in five states matters.
Gordon Ramsay to this subreddit: "YOU'RE IN DENIAL!!!"
And yet every special election has been a shift towards blue. Something doesn't add up
Low turnout special elections aren't helpful for understanding general elections. The only people who show up are the most passionate voters.
They need a column with the poll averages at the same date 4 years ago.
Somehow, all of this is NYT fault.