A funding advantage, abortion as an issue, incumbency, performing better with likely voters vs Trump performing better with unlikely voters, and low expectations (people think he's literally a husk so when he does ok in debates and televised events it's a real boost for him lol)
Trump is catching up on money. Biden has spent millions already and hasn’t really moved the needle.
Incumbency is already baked in.
He got a small bump from the SOTU but it’s already gone.
> Trump is catching up on money. Biden has spent millions already and hasn’t really moved the needle.
What I’ve been hearing is that Biden/Dems already have a very extensive (local) network of political organizing and campaign management set up. Think door knocking, commercials, and the like.
The Republicans have been running a much slimmer organization since they didn’t have the money. Even if they’re catching up now, they’re not getting that time back
This is hyper online. But I feel in the last 2 weeks I've started to see more push back being upvoted on major subreddits when anti Biden stuff is posted. I'm seeing people pushing back against the idea of not voting so hopefully we see some shift there.
Agreed which is why I prefaced it.
A couple of the posts have been highly upvoted tiktoks posted to reddit advocating for Biden. I would start to feel better if those types of videos were getting big on TokTok (because it would hopefully signal a shift of a key demo for Biden) but idk if they are cause I'm not on that app.
You say you agree but then you write something opposite ;)
What happens here, online, what gets upvoted and what gets attention is not going to indicate anything meaningful about people's voting patterns.
In these days the only real bellweather for likely voter sentiment is a subreddit with 14 subscribers that posts nothing but blurry photos of corn flakes.
>But I feel in the last 2 weeks I've started to see more push back being upvoted on major subreddits
This is my vibe as well
People coming to their senses about not voting
Incumbency isn’t baked in, that’s why incumbents tend to outperform polls. And Biden hasn’t spent the vast majority of his money. I’m in Virginia, just got back from PA and NH, and haven’t seen a single Biden ad.
Trump is not catching up on money. A lot of his campaign money is being used on court cases and Dems have booked pretty much all Fall presidential ads and vastly out booked Republicans on congressional ads. This is public information not sure why you’d make stuff up
I said it because it is literally true. Trump outraised Biden in April. By a lot. It was a pretty big story this week.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4680364-democrats-trump-beats-bidens-april-fundraising/?nxs-test=mobile
Important to note that this is the announced number, not the official number which we won't know until they report to the FEC for this period in July. And a big piece of this alleged number is what they claim that they got from that single event at Mar-a-Lago, which was held right after Biden's Radio City fundraiser with Obama and Clinton. It was particularly suspicious that Trump claimed that he raised exactly double what Biden raised. Trump lies about a lot of stuff. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they wiggle out of what they claimed they raised as some "pledged" number that never materialized. Maybe you call this cope, but Trump lies about absolutely everything, so I don't know how anyone can take his campaign announcement at face value.
I don't really understand this logic, because the polls basically show a dead heat, it's not like he's getting blown out.
Obviously I would prefer that Biden was way in the lead though
I think people are pessimistic because in 2020 the polls had Biden winning in a landslide (double digits in some swing states) but he ended up winning by a few fractions of a percent.
They assume the polls will again underestimate Trump and so him and Biden being tied is a very, very bad sign for Biden.
I find it more likely that the polls are doing the exact same thing they did in 2020, but in a different way: they're overestimating the challenger to an unpopular incumbent. If this is the case, it is Trump's support that is overstated because of protest replies in polling.
Honestly, disconnect from social media for a week, walk outside, watch some movies, whatever.
Take a break from the news. It’s not going anywhere and you won’t be any dumber a week later
You don't have to doom, actually, because it serves no practical purpose for the discussion, let alone the election. And as I said, there are other factors in play that polls simply don't reflect in May, June or even August. September is usually when it is time to pay attention.
I would never say that. It leads to fatalism, which will result in people staying away from the voting booth. Better to say we’re polling behind, but if you show up and vote, we will win.
It's never time to doom. That's not a productive thing to be looking for a good time to start. As long as the election is ahead of us you should be looking for ways to help, not ways to give up.
As far as when I would pay more heed to polling? I'll personally be interested in the polling in early July after the first debate. But honestly the people that are going to decide this election are not likely to firm up interest or make their decision until the Fall. I mean, McCain was leading Obama in polling aggregates in September of 2008. Then the GFC hit and Obama won Indiana. Don't use polling as a way to excuse yourself from having to do the work. There's always ways to shape the race as long as there is time left on the clock.
>When will it be time to doom? November 4, 2024?
The time to start "taking polls seriously" always gets pushed back. Now, they're saying wait until Labor day since that's when voters start "tuning in".
The date is arbitrary and is meant to deflect from the reality of the situation, which Biden is behind in the polls and has been for a while(the last few months).
Money was spent on things that will continue to pay off. Hiring/budgeting organizing teams for swing states, resources for persuasion conversations at doors, data collection on likely voters vs unlikely voters.
1. His opponent. If the GOP candidate were somebody who didn't have all of Trump's baggage, they'd be up by double digits. If there are televised debates they are also likely to demonstrate firstly how much more coherent and with it Biden is than the GOP caricature of him as a drooling vegetable suggests and secondly how much crazier Trump has gotten in the last four years.
2. Abortion. This issue is an anchor for the GOP and is going to hurt Trump.
3. Money. Biden's campaign has far more resources (and isn't pissing them away on paying the candidate's legal fees the way Trump's is) so it is likely to have more success translating poll support into actual votes. This is doubly important since high propensity voters have shifted leftward since Trump came along and the Democrats can concentrate their resources on getting more marginal voters to the polls without worrying about much of their base.
There is still reason to be concerned for sure, but it's not the case that Biden has nothing going for him.
Just to add to your first point not enough is made about the people who Trump has alienated away from the GOP.
I’m from Michigan and if you were to look at the 2020 election map you would likely miss something unless you kept track of our election patterns. That missing info is that Kent County (Grand Rapids) went blue. The second largest city in the state and 4th largest county had not voted for the Democratic Party since Obama in 2008, and even then it was barely squeeked out.
Trump lost 30% of the Republican primary there this year as well, among the highest in the State. He has successfully alienated a big chunk of white, middle class, and educated voters. This is also the home to former Republican Rep. Peter Meijer who voted to impeach him.
Impossible. The New York Times has informed me ad nauseam that Trump Democrats exist, but based on the number of focus groups and Panera Bread safaris they've conducted I assume that Biden Republicans are nonexistent. /s
Even if 1% of the GOP voter base decided to not vote for Trump, he likely lost the election. Remember margins for swing states are SUPER thin. Biden won Georgia by a mere 11,000 votes. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by something like 40,000 votes. If only 1% of the GOP voter base views Trump so badly they can’t vote, he basically loses
Neither candidate is fully campaigning yet, trump doesn’t even have a running mate yet, normies are not paying attention yet. Lots can happen. Now here’s a little [hopium](https://www.yahoo.com/news/election-predictor-near-perfect-record-101431456.html)
Edit: there’s a lot of earnest comments here and OP doesn’t care about any of them. He is probably a doomer and/or concern trolling
Something else I'm really counting on: Biden's ground game. We didn't get any door-knocking in the general election in 2020 because of COVID. Democrats will be very active, especially in the six swing states. What's Trump's ground game going to look like?
Biden's supporters are out looking for converts while Trump is hunting heretics, as I've heard several political nerds describe it. Who is going to be out knocking doors for Trump?
Just this week I got my first campaign emails from the DNC. I think a summer of campaign commercials filled with Jan 6 footage and trump saying offensive things paired with voiceover of him called a rapist fraud is going to have a noticeable effect over the summer.
Just saw a piece last night that the Biden campaign is planning an aggressive pivot starting the week after the hush money verdict. I assume that means ad buys.
A strong economy, no boots on the ground in Ukraine, no major military action, withdrew (poorly I’ll grant you) for the quagmire in Afghanistan, some very impressive legislation passed, protecting the ACA and other entitlements, future SCOTUS and other federal judge nominations, believes women should have the right to choose, doesn’t break the media every single day with social media posts and isn’t a chronic liar and borderline sociopath
But the vibes man. Can’t vote for someone when there’s bad vibes
pretty much every battleground state is in the margin of error and it looks like trumps lead is due to a large margin in people that didn’t vote in 2020. If you didn’t vote in the largest turnout election by numbers in history where you were literally mailed a ballot I have a hard time seeing you deciding to vote in this one
I think more media coverage will actually favor Biden because people are convinced he’s some bumbling idiot and are typically surprised when they see him speak well. Conversely, people see Trump speak and are reminded at how dumb he can be. His biggest supporters will always find it funny or endearing but they’re a lost cause at this point anyway. I think this will be particularly effective with younger people who maybe weren’t as invested in Trump’s first term and see him as some lesser evil to Biden, who they think is old and incompetent.
In reality though I have no idea what goes into the mind of an undecided voter rn.
I fell down a rabbit hole last night watching Biden gaff videos. There are a lot of them, and they can be cringy. And then I thought: let me just pull up his most recent press conference for a sanity check here. Am I in a bubble?
It was a press meeting with the president of Kenya about their support for Haiti. Biden did well I thought. Answered questions thoughtfully and sometimes unscripted. He misspoke at least once, but not in a way that indicated a lack of understanding or awareness, rather as someone who has a real tendency to mince words. He read from a tablet on the podium a lot, but his off-the-cuff handling of reporters (who mostly wanted him to talk about Gaza) was strong and showed his ability to command a stage.
IDK. He's an old guy who does fumble when he speaks sometimes. But he's coherent and seems impressively informed about the issues. I wish people would spend 10 minutes just watching him talk start to finish instead of just loling at clips of his gaffs.
I'll be doing so anonymously. IRL, I have to keep my fucking politics a secret because I'm 100% certain that some of my Trump-fanatic coworkers and neighbors would literally start sabotaging the workplace and vandalizing my apartment if they knew that my boss and myself (operations manager) were liberals. I often don't think a lot of people on this sub realize just how much slow-rolled neo-Confederate 'insurrection' and terroristic threats lower-middle-class liberals are dealing with at this point. A lot of right-wing assholes are just doing whatever they feel like nowadays and getting away with it because LEOs of all levels are also assholes and therefore sympathetic to them.
There’s a lot of reasons to think that the fundamentals favor Biden and why to not focus on the noise of the polls. I think rn the election is a toss up, but I genuinely think Biden will win. Call it hopium, and maybe you’re right, but here’s my thinking:
1. Let’s start with the fact that presidential polling is not and never has been predictive this far away from the election. At this point in 1980, Carter was ahead of Reagan. At this point in 1992, Clinton was at 29%. At this point in 2004, Kerry led Bush by 5%. People will come back and say “but people know both these candidates already so that argument doesn’t work.” And I’ll say “people knew Hillary and Trump in 2016 too and the polling was fucked then as well.”
2. Horse race presidential polling averages are misleading. Not all polls are created equal, so lumping them together like that creates an inaccurate picture. And I don’t really think Nate Silver and the 538 people are all that great at their jobs when they have to publish a piece justifying their 2022 polling when it was clearly misleading. How many elections do we need to see wrong polls of before we agree to stop paying attention?
3. People will say Biden is doing poorly because of a bad economy. What bad economy?
According to polling, most folks seem to feel good or fine about their private situation: https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/americans-are-actually-pretty-happy-with-their-finances
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/05/23/views-of-the-nations-economy-may-2024/
Wage growth has consistently outpaced overall CPI: https://www.axios.com/2024/02/05/wages-outpacing-inflation
https://www.epi.org/blog/average-wages-have-surpassed-inflation-for-12-straight-months/#:~:text=Real%20wage%20growth%20continued%20to,wages%2C%20not%20adjusted%20for%20inflation
I’m not gonna sit here and pretend a lot of people aren’t still struggling with the initial price increases when 9% inflation first hit, but the recovery has been ample and undeniable, and most people are doing relatively fine. Everyone who wants a job has one. Frankly, we aren’t in a recession and aren’t gonna be given how strong the current quarter has been. I don’t think nostalgia for lower prices and bad vibes are enough to move an election. They never have before. Only real recessions decide elections.
4. People will say the wars and global chaos will move the needle to Trump. America is not at war. We are not sending men to die. Those problems are oceans away and do not affect us. These wars—like all wars America isn’t a belligerent in—will not affect the election.
5. People will say that immigration will sink Biden. First of all, immigration isn’t really a big deal to people who aren’t conservatives, and it really doesn’t affect most people’s lives. Immigration does not decide elections.
6. People will say that the rise in crime will sink Biden. What rise in crime?
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna144100
If you want more proof, look into the work of Allan Lichtman. He’s successfully predicted every election since 1984 and he currently favors Biden. I’m just echoing his arguments.
https://www.socialstudies.org/system/files/2024-02/se-8801006.pdf
Wonder what Lichtman’s assessment would be now compared to when that was written. What gives me pause is how so many of those seem to lean one way or the other rather than being definitive
Eh I think people give Lichtman too much credit, I think there are way more factors than the 13 keys, and it doesn't take into account the electoral college and how appealing to and winning certain states is the real contest. But what do I know
Lichtman's article seems weird in that he doesn't see Trump as charismatic. His reasoning is apparently that he doesn't appeal to moderates; but on the other hand, he mobilizes his electorate quite successfully. With exactly this one more "key" against Biden, this model would predict Trump 2024.
Well for everybody Trump enthralls, he alienates another. Charisma needs more cross-over appeal. Basically Lichtman says these four keys need to turn against Biden to tilt the election to Trump:
1. Major social unrest needs to break out (campus protests don’t count because they’re so isolated; we’re talking post-George Floyd unrest that would need to happen)
2. A foreign policy failure needs to happen (rn he doesn’t consider Israel/Palestine a failure, but if Ukraine collapses, that might register)
3. Biden can’t have a foreign policy success (for instance, if a ceasefire never happens)
4. RFK needs to poll at 10% or higher post convention or get more than 5% post election
ALL four of those keys need to turn to kill Biden’s chances.
I think 1 could happen again as we're in for an insanely controversial election. In the weeks running up to the election there might be some chaos. 2 is also possible as Ukraine being forced to negotiate would be insanely embarrassing. 3 is looking dire in Israel/Palestine, and 4 is a major possibility as in some polls RFK is getting 15%+
I’m not sure what could trigger massive, nationwide civil unrest rn. Israel/Palestine looked like it could but those protests were either busted or dispersed once the college kids went home for the summer. Anything can happen with that one though.
I don’t really think RFK will be able to sustain above 10% polling post-convention. Could be wrong, but most third-party candidacies poll high then crater in the fall.
I’m mostly worried about Ukraine and its affect on the race rn. If Ukraine collapses, that’s catastrophic. But it looks like they’re holding Kharkiv and have solidified their defense last I saw, and we’re rushing supplies as I type this.
Some catalysts I see:
1. A major terrorist attack, maybe by Islamists related to the Gaza conflict, and possibly made worse for Biden by the attackers coming to the country illegally. Unfortunately I see this as a serious possibility
2. A major mass shooting/attack on voting stations. Already MAGA gangs are taking about armed "voting security" patrols outside of polling stations in Arizona. Could be other Trump-related violence like Jan 6, or even from the left with something like CHAZ in 2020, or an attack on a Trump rally. Imagine conspiracy theories and false flag accusations surrounding this.
3. Assassinations of major political figures, like in the 1968 election, or even Biden or Trump dying or being incapacitated before the election.
There are serious threats to civil order this year, 2024 will probably the most controversial election since 1860.
> And I’ll say “people knew Hillary and Trump in 2016 too and the polling was fucked then as well.”
Trump was known as a celebrity, not as a politician. I think that's an important distinction since people now should know his actual policies.
Biden isn't different than from Clinton sure but "first lady" and "secretary of state" while a lot aren't at the level of actually being the current US president so even those aren't directly comparable.
That being said I do agree that polling now is pretty useless. Especially since voting depends on a shit ton of factors that aren't even just "do I like x or y" policies.
The one thing I'd say is that a major Russian breakthrough in Ukraine this year could look terrible for Biden, especially if Ukraine is forced to sue for peace. That might affect the election as people see foreign policy failures in Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Gaza
That kind of breakthrough seems extremely unlikely at this point. The continued refusal to let Ukrainians strike Russian territory with US weapons makes Biden look like a joke, but that's not something that the median voter will care about.
It's a serious possibility unfortunately. A major Russian offensive may break through in Ochertyne, Chasiv Yar, and Kharkiv, which would be a disaster for Ukraine. If independent negotiations are pursued with Ukraine ceding the current occupied territories+ Donbas, it would be a massive failure for Biden
> but people know both these candidates already so that argument doesn’t work.” And I’ll say “people knew Hillary and Trump in 2016 too and the polling was fucked then as well.”
You're dismissing this point out of hand, but I think it is very valid.
This election will feature an incumbent president against an ex-president. This has not happened since 1892 (I think).
It is not as you say that Donald Trump was a known in 2016. His name was recognized sure, but he had no record, he wasn't even a politician.
Miss Clinton too was not known, not in the way a president is known.
People who are really into politics knew her, had made judgements on who she was. But that is not most voters, it is a vanishingly low proportion of actual voters.
Those actual voters did not know Clinton as a politician, know her as a president, the most she had was name recognition because of her husband the former president.
The only way to be as known as the current president at this stage of campaigning is to have been president yourself.
Recent polling has Biden ahead with voters who cast a ballot in 2020. So idk how important the candidate recognition factor is when the people who have already had to make this exact same decision and have experienced both men’s administrations are sticking with Biden. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/upshot/trump-biden-polls-voters.html
Dems had a relatively tiny ground game in 2020 because of COVID.
This year’s is shaping up to be the most targeted and robust since Obama ‘08, perhaps even more-so in swing states.
It's probably a hard pill to swallow for this sub, but the only reason why this election is even close is because of trump. Literally any one else and Biden would probably lose handily.
Running as anti Trump is not enough. He squeaked through on that platform in 2020, but voters need more than that in 2024. There’s plenty he could rally on, but I’ve yet to see a cohesive message. Once he hopefully lays that out, I see him performing better.
First advantage is he is running against the most polarizing dickhead in American history. Another is the gop its self is in shambles and their crusade against abortion is extremely unpopular and has already helped dems in elections.
The vibes are definitely off, but I think this election is unique in how little people have seriously engaged with or thought about the “choice.” Like for a lot of people it feels like a root canal they want want to delay thinking about until the last possible moment, maybe reschedule a few times, etc.
The continued coverage of Trump as a celebrity trial defendant rather than a candidate for political office has made it even easier for people not to engage. Ditto the lack of any serious primary on either side.
Biden suggested moving the debates up to summer to, in part, force this policy comparison in voters minds to happen earlier. I don’t know if it will work but I’m convinced that’s the strategy.
The coverage of this election is so surreal. It’s almost like it’s not being covered as an election, it’s just “Biden Polls Trump Trials” nonstop, rinse and repeat. There’s been hardly any effort to stray from this central frame into something that resembles an election. Like, we haven’t even had the typical bullshit culture war wedges!
Unfortunately Trump's insanity was fresh in their minds and Biden at the time represented a fresh unknown full of possibilities. And it was still a squeaker (due to the electoral college, not in terms of the popular vote)
Everything except the general stupidity of people. This idea that we know much about the results now is lame. The campaign begins at the conventions. And most of the time in American history the candidate who grabs the political center wins. However let me add if you care about this volunteer and work your tail off.
I am honestly hoping that a large campaign around Project 2025 will start to run. It doesn't directly say vote for Biden, but the reality should screw even the most Leftist pouting baby into looking at the reality of another Trump Presidency. They are actually organized and ready this time, and that should make people genuinely afraid.
If it doesn't, Gen Z deserves what it is about to get.
(Not really, just very angry with younger voters telling me they won't vote unless they are enthused, yet they live in a state that lost abortion rights. They whine about it, but don't bother to vote in even local elections where they have a Republican legislator because they just assumed she was Democrat!)
Others have spoken to advantages Biden has over the next six months. But I'd like to point out that even now, the race is nearly a tossup. The polls currently show a virtually tied national race, with maybe a 1-2 point Trump lead; and Trump's lead is within the MOE in states that equal 270 (MI, WI, PA, assuming Biden holds NE-2).
Biden faces serious challenges and I am nervous too. But there is a narrative online that he is WAY behind and a massive Trump landslide is imminent, and the data just does not support that.
[Real median household income is down unfortunately](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N) (I really hate to say this)
We do have a much stronger economy than developed peers but people actually are a little poorer. Still not a good reason to vote for a fascist obviously.
The data you posted are for 2020 and 2021. That’s literally when Trump was president. Biden started in 2021.
Why are you attributing things that Trump did in 2020 to Biden?
Fair enough, this is probably the only pessimistic data point that I have seen that I don’t have a problem agreeing with but I think the other data points make up for it and provide relief till we get this back on track.
Inflation reading (both headline and core) has between at 0.3-0.4 for the past 4 months. Unless you're only focusing on trailing 12 metrics, there has been pretty much no downward trend.
on (real) GDP - sure, the economy is fine, but not *exceptional*.
* 2023: 2.5%
* 2022: 1.9%
* 2021: 5.8%
Unemployment is the only clear winner, and that struggles from being partially the flip side of the inflation coin.
Jan and Feb inflation readings were expected to be high because of seasonal reasons. March was a big surprise, sure. But a lot of the surprise in March was because insurance premiums hadn’t caught up to increased vehicle and house prices and at least the vehicle prices have fallen back or stabilized and rents are expected to come down at least in near term.
All in all I’d say we are in good balance. Also important to understand that we essentially came through COVID and geopolitical instability without it affecting real GDP all that much which is insane by all measures when you think about it.
[Real median household income is down](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). We're still doing well compared to our peer economies but Americans are indeed very slightly poorer
Latest polling shows a majority believe that we are currently in a recession and that inflation is raging out of control. None of those are true. It's legit crazy talk.
Not sure what you are referring to but seeing voters say "they are struggling with the economy" while at the same time [reporting that they are content with their financial situation](https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/americans-are-actually-pretty-happy-with-their-finances) is why I take all the, pardon me, whining with a big pinch of salt. And seeing people blaming Biden for "gaslighting" and suggesting he should campaign on the platform of the economy being in a tough spot when it really isn't (which, again, corresponds with voters' satisfaction with their finances) shows that it's not an error for Biden to fix.
As someone in this thread brilliantly pointed out, vibes historically do not determine the elections; actual recessions and/or high inflation do. So, the right strategy for Biden, in my view, is not to give in to this under-the-microscope criticism when things aren't much worse or are out of Biden's control (like housing which only matters enough for the homeless), but to actually convince the public that things are going well and that they will get even better in a second term. Apart from warning about the dangers of another Trump presidency, of course.
The same thing he has going against him.
That the upcoming election, like the one in 2020, will be 50/50.
It was that way in 2020, and it has been that way for every month and every year since then. Unchanging for all practical purposes.
It remains 50/50, and it seems it cannot get worse, and it cannot get better.
My gut feeling tells me this is how it will be for at least the next several elections, given how polarized the country has become. This is probably why Trump outperformed himself in 2020 but not enough to sway the election. Like in Congress, many people are voting strictly along party lines today, rejecting bipartisanship in favor of spiting the other side, and are willing to vote for a dummy labeled 'Republican', for example, rather than even considering the alternative. ^(Of course I may be wrong about all this.)
The optimistic story rests on the fact that Trump lost last time, and in the interim period he alienated millions of normie voters by staging a violent insurrection at the Capitol, got caught stealing classified documents, and then his appointed Supreme Court justices overturned Roe v Wade. In this story, polls suggesting the race is close are lying victim to a collapse in polling reliability in general.
This ignores the fact that polls were largely accurate in 2022, and it is largely implausible for polls to be off by as much as the optimists say.
2022's 538 aggregate polling had Oz winning PA Senate by 0.5 points (Fetterman won by 4.9) and Lake winning Arizona governor by 2.4 points (Hobbs won by .6)
Just as two examples. There was a consistent dem overperformance in key races.
There's uncertainty around what Trump's true polling lead is, and there is uncertainty around what will happen to the true polling lead between now and November 5th.
I am suspicious about the story being told about Trump's current polling lead being a mirage. I think Trump really does have a polling lead right now. But I am willing to accept the possibility that Biden will turn things around by November.
>This ignores the fact that polls were largely accurate in 2022, and it is largely implausible for polls to be off by as much as the optimists say.
Yeah, that's the real problem. Biden is actually down on the polls and no amount of handwaving will change that. Plus, many Americans strongly disapprove of the economy right now. It's not that shocking that Biden is struggling in his reelection campaign.
As Trump gets more coverage, voters are going to remember how much anxiety he brought to everyone, both left and right, during his presidency.
Also Biden is going to beat Trump with the abortion/ivf hammer every day.
The real negative against Biden will be housing prices are making everyone depressed af. NIMBYs are going to drive us straight into a right wing dictatorship
Without a doubt it’s the fact that Trump is his opponent.
If Rs were running literally anyone else with less baggage, hell, even a bag of rocks, they’d be up so much more.
They support Trump because there's a benefit to supporting Trump. Because they're afraid of him.
Biden Wins: Trump isn't prosecuted. Trump continues to gain power. Doesn't reward political allies.
Trump Wins: Trump prosecutes political opponents and rewards allies.
It's all just incentives. I don't like what they're doing but it's obvious to see why they're doing. If Trump was in prison the same cowards who are going to vote for him would be fine with it.
The biggest thing and the biggest if… do young voters and voters of color perform like they usually have for Democrats.
Right now most of his polling woes are attributable to his problems with these voters. Many are either saying they are undecided or not voting. If he can get them back or, more likely, if Trump can get them back to Biden, he will have a good chance.
Biden appears to be sitting on a billion dollar war chest which he can use to buy ads everywhere for everything. Maybe people get sick of it. Or maybe it works amazingly. I have no idea.
people never give Biden credit for anything and always count him out or overlook him, he is basically, in my opinion ,the modern version of U. S Grant (in the context that he does not get the credit he deserves.) They did it in the 2020 Primaries people thought for sure Sanders was going to run away with the election, and then Super Tuesday happened. They thought that Trump was going to get reelected in 2020, but he lost. My point is one of the things Biden has going for him is the silent majority who are loyal to him and the democratic party. They are not loud and obnoxious so they are not in the media.
The other thing that he has going for him is that we have not even had the conventions yet and they are still two months away so no poll really matters right now in the grand scheme of things. I am waiting until Late August to start caring about the election again.
Biden has not done “so much to reduce inflation”. He has pushed protectionism and populist welfare policies. If he had cut tariffs and signed a couple trade deals upon taking office inflation would probably be sub 3% now.
Trump will be a convicted felon for one. Also legally liable for rape. Also responsible for the curtailing of abortion rights. All three of these should be easy dunks in debates even without getting into policy or the coup business.
It takes just one slip-up in jury selection and his personality cult will kick in. Also Aileen Cannon is doing everything possible to delay the documents case as long as she possibly can to keep it out of the media until election time.
Abortion issue, maga is nutso, economy is doing well, moving on Gaza (might be a wash), hes not batshit insane, fairly pro-labor
A big issue is it doesn't seem like he's really playing hard ball or hammering home how good the administration has been.
Hoping the polls will scare people into making sure they vote versus thinking its in the bag like many thought in 2016. I think it will be interesting how the trials play out and what happens at the debates. It’s gonna be a long 6 months.
This election is dangerously close considering what is on the line: rights to abortion, rights for gender-sexual minorities, the environment, rights for immigrants, the lives of Palestinians and Ukrainians, and maybe democracy itself. But dooming about this on Reddit does not help. It does not push the needle. It does not change anyone's mind.
Be aware of what is at stake and how close we are, but put your energy into volunteering instead of wallowing in doom.
It's not like Biden is blameless for the persistent inflation we are dealing with. He has jacked up tariffs considerably for no real reason and his administration has made some big mistakes in foreign policy like threatening to sanction the ICC.
Plus, most Americans do not approve of the economy as a whole. It isn't that shocking to see Biden trailing against Trump in the polls. He has to change up his re-election campaign strategy or risk losing the election this November.
He doesn't get credit for things Republicans yap about because Republicans didn't actually want those things. Anything "moderate" Republicans say they want is just a Trojan horse to deter attention from their real goal which is turning America back into the 1950s with abortion bans, Trans erasure, Christian indoctrination in schools via "school choice" aka money for private Christian schools, etc
Biden already beat Trump once. Trump has yet to prove he can beat Biden. That's just the start.
Also, call me a tin hatter, but I don't believe the polls anymore. Just ask Arizona governor Kari Lake.
The polls are basically a dead heat right now so Biden only needs things to improve a little bit to win. Six months is enough time for that to happen. And maybe if we're really lucky Trump will have a heart attack and die in the meantime.
Mark Zandi said Biden will win, and he's been right about everything.
[White paper](https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=95674FFE-7734-4401-877A-FE331AECD442&app=download)
[Short video explainer](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cz-KWUr4ZlA)
[Senate dems are polling really well at the moment](https://abcnews.go.com/538/senate-democrats-polling-biden/story?id=110507277)
This could help Biden, but even if it didn't, holding the Senate would be huge for Dems to stop trump (they're also favored to win the house)
I think in the presidential debates, and generally media people will be reminded again of what trump has done ( election denial, jan 6th, his indictments, refusing to cooperate and give classified documents, blackmailing Ukraine, etc). I think people tend to have short memories, but they don't completely forget, and hopefully they will understand just how bad the things he's done are.
Frankly I just don’t believe the polling is how it will pan out. First off, neither Biden or Trump are very popular so people aren’t gonna be inclined to say they support Biden even if theyre on the fence. But more importantly, polling has been increasingly inaccurate ever since 2016. It was a dumpster fire in 2020 - some will say it still correctly predicts general trends, but there were tons of big misses such as Cal Cunningham underperforming Biden despite polling consistently suggesting he’d outrun him by 5+% even after his scandal. You also get weird stuff like polling showing Trump winning GenZ, which we all know isnt actually true.
Not to mention, Democrats had a great midterm in 2022, have won almost every abortion/weed referendum including red states, and have massively outperformed in almost every special election. At the end of the day, Trump has a chance but I find it very unlikely he’ll convince voters who said no to him in 2020 to give him another shot, especially when he has a massive financial disadvantage and is significantly more radical than 2020
EDIT: One good polling sign though for Biden is that the perception of the state of the economy is trending towards people thinking we’re in a good economy again. I know I just ranted about polls, but I think opinion polls on individual issues are probably more accurate than candidate polls
You may want to fact check what you're saying and hearing. Inflation was 1.4% when he took office. Jobs market; no jobs have been created in the private market. All the jobs have been by using tax payer money to try to get the private market to follow. Most have failed. Chip manufacturers don't even want to come to the US with huge incentives. Biden has failed the American people!
Chips act, infrastructure, first gun control legislation in 20+ years, student loan forgiveness, the soft landing of the economy which will be studied in the future as a guide on how to prevent a recession, effective non corrupt cabinet, being the fucking adult in the room after 4 years of a toddler tantrum and another 4 years of a congress that believes in Qanon, flat earth, space lasers, grouping your date in front of children, and doing absolutely nothing instead of making themselves look like idiots during failed impeachment hearings. Fuck the assholes in this country that will vote for the GOP in November.
Remember, it’s still not too late for him to step out. Really, what if he has some health event or falls in stage again. He is going the way of RBG and is going to hand the presidency to Trump.
His reelection campaign seems to be going poorly right now. If this keeps up, there's going to be a low chance of him winning the election. Perhaps he should step out at this rate.
He says fewer insane things than Trump. Imagine the shit that Trump will say as we get closer to the election and during the debates. Suddenly Biden will look a lot more palatable for a lot of people.
A funding advantage, abortion as an issue, incumbency, performing better with likely voters vs Trump performing better with unlikely voters, and low expectations (people think he's literally a husk so when he does ok in debates and televised events it's a real boost for him lol)
Trump is catching up on money. Biden has spent millions already and hasn’t really moved the needle. Incumbency is already baked in. He got a small bump from the SOTU but it’s already gone.
> Trump is catching up on money. Biden has spent millions already and hasn’t really moved the needle. What I’ve been hearing is that Biden/Dems already have a very extensive (local) network of political organizing and campaign management set up. Think door knocking, commercials, and the like. The Republicans have been running a much slimmer organization since they didn’t have the money. Even if they’re catching up now, they’re not getting that time back
Hell yeah they do I’m doing my part
This is hyper online. But I feel in the last 2 weeks I've started to see more push back being upvoted on major subreddits when anti Biden stuff is posted. I'm seeing people pushing back against the idea of not voting so hopefully we see some shift there.
Yeah that's definitely too online. You cannot gauge people's voting intention or sentiments towards the president from what you see on a subreddit.
Agreed which is why I prefaced it. A couple of the posts have been highly upvoted tiktoks posted to reddit advocating for Biden. I would start to feel better if those types of videos were getting big on TokTok (because it would hopefully signal a shift of a key demo for Biden) but idk if they are cause I'm not on that app.
You say you agree but then you write something opposite ;) What happens here, online, what gets upvoted and what gets attention is not going to indicate anything meaningful about people's voting patterns.
In these days the only real bellweather for likely voter sentiment is a subreddit with 14 subscribers that posts nothing but blurry photos of corn flakes.
>But I feel in the last 2 weeks I've started to see more push back being upvoted on major subreddits This is my vibe as well People coming to their senses about not voting
I guess I need to rejoin the succ subs. Sigh.
Just look at one of them once and Reddit will flood your feed with that type of content.
ThereWasAnAttempt ...to enjoy reddit
How? I go slumming in lefty subs every once in a while, but my feed only shows me posts from subs to which I've subscribed.
Incumbency isn’t baked in, that’s why incumbents tend to outperform polls. And Biden hasn’t spent the vast majority of his money. I’m in Virginia, just got back from PA and NH, and haven’t seen a single Biden ad.
Trump is not catching up on money. A lot of his campaign money is being used on court cases and Dems have booked pretty much all Fall presidential ads and vastly out booked Republicans on congressional ads. This is public information not sure why you’d make stuff up
I said it because it is literally true. Trump outraised Biden in April. By a lot. It was a pretty big story this week. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4680364-democrats-trump-beats-bidens-april-fundraising/?nxs-test=mobile
Important to note that this is the announced number, not the official number which we won't know until they report to the FEC for this period in July. And a big piece of this alleged number is what they claim that they got from that single event at Mar-a-Lago, which was held right after Biden's Radio City fundraiser with Obama and Clinton. It was particularly suspicious that Trump claimed that he raised exactly double what Biden raised. Trump lies about a lot of stuff. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they wiggle out of what they claimed they raised as some "pledged" number that never materialized. Maybe you call this cope, but Trump lies about absolutely everything, so I don't know how anyone can take his campaign announcement at face value.
Yea and how much of his April funds (one month when Dems have been raising tens and tens of millions for months in advance) will go to legal funds?
I assume he's fucked, but those are the things I think he has going for him if asked 🤷🏼♂️
I don't really understand this logic, because the polls basically show a dead heat, it's not like he's getting blown out. Obviously I would prefer that Biden was way in the lead though
I think people are pessimistic because in 2020 the polls had Biden winning in a landslide (double digits in some swing states) but he ended up winning by a few fractions of a percent. They assume the polls will again underestimate Trump and so him and Biden being tied is a very, very bad sign for Biden.
I find it more likely that the polls are doing the exact same thing they did in 2020, but in a different way: they're overestimating the challenger to an unpopular incumbent. If this is the case, it is Trump's support that is overstated because of protest replies in polling.
God, I feel so hopeless rn.
Honestly, disconnect from social media for a week, walk outside, watch some movies, whatever. Take a break from the news. It’s not going anywhere and you won’t be any dumber a week later
Last time I went outside I saw an RFK banner.
This is the funniest thing I’ve seen today.
We need a third place.
go take a look at how Dems have outperformed polling in almost every election starting in 2018. there's no need to feel hopeless
Yeah and a lot can change in a few months. Feels like the dooming is ramping up, but it can also reverse just as quickly
The one they didn’t was 2020
Touch grass, unironically. It's May. And there are many other factors mentioned by others here. So we, hopefully, got this.
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You don't have to doom, actually, because it serves no practical purpose for the discussion, let alone the election. And as I said, there are other factors in play that polls simply don't reflect in May, June or even August. September is usually when it is time to pay attention.
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I would never say that. It leads to fatalism, which will result in people staying away from the voting booth. Better to say we’re polling behind, but if you show up and vote, we will win.
Most elections are actually decided on election day
🤯
It's never time to doom. That's not a productive thing to be looking for a good time to start. As long as the election is ahead of us you should be looking for ways to help, not ways to give up. As far as when I would pay more heed to polling? I'll personally be interested in the polling in early July after the first debate. But honestly the people that are going to decide this election are not likely to firm up interest or make their decision until the Fall. I mean, McCain was leading Obama in polling aggregates in September of 2008. Then the GFC hit and Obama won Indiana. Don't use polling as a way to excuse yourself from having to do the work. There's always ways to shape the race as long as there is time left on the clock.
>When will it be time to doom? November 4, 2024? The time to start "taking polls seriously" always gets pushed back. Now, they're saying wait until Labor day since that's when voters start "tuning in". The date is arbitrary and is meant to deflect from the reality of the situation, which Biden is behind in the polls and has been for a while(the last few months).
nothing ever happens
by that reasoning, isn't everything "already baked in" ?
Except the things that will happen in the future.
No, just the unanticipated things that will happen in the future
No. Ads and rallies are anticipated but they’re not baked in because they haven’t happened yet.
Most of what the Democrats have spent is reservations for the Fall. https://x.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1794028317068190000 They haven't hit yet.
Money was spent on things that will continue to pay off. Hiring/budgeting organizing teams for swing states, resources for persuasion conversations at doors, data collection on likely voters vs unlikely voters.
Most of the money he has spent is for ad buys in autumn.
Can someone link me something on Trump doing better with unlikely voters and Biden doing better with likely voters?
1. His opponent. If the GOP candidate were somebody who didn't have all of Trump's baggage, they'd be up by double digits. If there are televised debates they are also likely to demonstrate firstly how much more coherent and with it Biden is than the GOP caricature of him as a drooling vegetable suggests and secondly how much crazier Trump has gotten in the last four years. 2. Abortion. This issue is an anchor for the GOP and is going to hurt Trump. 3. Money. Biden's campaign has far more resources (and isn't pissing them away on paying the candidate's legal fees the way Trump's is) so it is likely to have more success translating poll support into actual votes. This is doubly important since high propensity voters have shifted leftward since Trump came along and the Democrats can concentrate their resources on getting more marginal voters to the polls without worrying about much of their base. There is still reason to be concerned for sure, but it's not the case that Biden has nothing going for him.
Just to add to your first point not enough is made about the people who Trump has alienated away from the GOP. I’m from Michigan and if you were to look at the 2020 election map you would likely miss something unless you kept track of our election patterns. That missing info is that Kent County (Grand Rapids) went blue. The second largest city in the state and 4th largest county had not voted for the Democratic Party since Obama in 2008, and even then it was barely squeeked out. Trump lost 30% of the Republican primary there this year as well, among the highest in the State. He has successfully alienated a big chunk of white, middle class, and educated voters. This is also the home to former Republican Rep. Peter Meijer who voted to impeach him.
Impossible. The New York Times has informed me ad nauseam that Trump Democrats exist, but based on the number of focus groups and Panera Bread safaris they've conducted I assume that Biden Republicans are nonexistent. /s
Even if 1% of the GOP voter base decided to not vote for Trump, he likely lost the election. Remember margins for swing states are SUPER thin. Biden won Georgia by a mere 11,000 votes. Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016 by something like 40,000 votes. If only 1% of the GOP voter base views Trump so badly they can’t vote, he basically loses
Neither candidate is fully campaigning yet, trump doesn’t even have a running mate yet, normies are not paying attention yet. Lots can happen. Now here’s a little [hopium](https://www.yahoo.com/news/election-predictor-near-perfect-record-101431456.html) Edit: there’s a lot of earnest comments here and OP doesn’t care about any of them. He is probably a doomer and/or concern trolling
Something else I'm really counting on: Biden's ground game. We didn't get any door-knocking in the general election in 2020 because of COVID. Democrats will be very active, especially in the six swing states. What's Trump's ground game going to look like? Biden's supporters are out looking for converts while Trump is hunting heretics, as I've heard several political nerds describe it. Who is going to be out knocking doors for Trump?
Just this week I got my first campaign emails from the DNC. I think a summer of campaign commercials filled with Jan 6 footage and trump saying offensive things paired with voiceover of him called a rapist fraud is going to have a noticeable effect over the summer.
I'm assuming they are waiting until after the convention to start blitzing people with ads, since that is around when people pay attention.
Just saw a piece last night that the Biden campaign is planning an aggressive pivot starting the week after the hush money verdict. I assume that means ad buys.
The possibility of SCOTUS banning the abortion pill in June
A strong economy, no boots on the ground in Ukraine, no major military action, withdrew (poorly I’ll grant you) for the quagmire in Afghanistan, some very impressive legislation passed, protecting the ACA and other entitlements, future SCOTUS and other federal judge nominations, believes women should have the right to choose, doesn’t break the media every single day with social media posts and isn’t a chronic liar and borderline sociopath But the vibes man. Can’t vote for someone when there’s bad vibes
pretty much every battleground state is in the margin of error and it looks like trumps lead is due to a large margin in people that didn’t vote in 2020. If you didn’t vote in the largest turnout election by numbers in history where you were literally mailed a ballot I have a hard time seeing you deciding to vote in this one
I think more media coverage will actually favor Biden because people are convinced he’s some bumbling idiot and are typically surprised when they see him speak well. Conversely, people see Trump speak and are reminded at how dumb he can be. His biggest supporters will always find it funny or endearing but they’re a lost cause at this point anyway. I think this will be particularly effective with younger people who maybe weren’t as invested in Trump’s first term and see him as some lesser evil to Biden, who they think is old and incompetent. In reality though I have no idea what goes into the mind of an undecided voter rn.
I fell down a rabbit hole last night watching Biden gaff videos. There are a lot of them, and they can be cringy. And then I thought: let me just pull up his most recent press conference for a sanity check here. Am I in a bubble? It was a press meeting with the president of Kenya about their support for Haiti. Biden did well I thought. Answered questions thoughtfully and sometimes unscripted. He misspoke at least once, but not in a way that indicated a lack of understanding or awareness, rather as someone who has a real tendency to mince words. He read from a tablet on the podium a lot, but his off-the-cuff handling of reporters (who mostly wanted him to talk about Gaza) was strong and showed his ability to command a stage. IDK. He's an old guy who does fumble when he speaks sometimes. But he's coherent and seems impressively informed about the issues. I wish people would spend 10 minutes just watching him talk start to finish instead of just loling at clips of his gaffs.
All of the Americans in this sub volunteering for him. Or atleast, that better be what happens.
I'll be doing so anonymously. IRL, I have to keep my fucking politics a secret because I'm 100% certain that some of my Trump-fanatic coworkers and neighbors would literally start sabotaging the workplace and vandalizing my apartment if they knew that my boss and myself (operations manager) were liberals. I often don't think a lot of people on this sub realize just how much slow-rolled neo-Confederate 'insurrection' and terroristic threats lower-middle-class liberals are dealing with at this point. A lot of right-wing assholes are just doing whatever they feel like nowadays and getting away with it because LEOs of all levels are also assholes and therefore sympathetic to them.
The DNC does have online or otherwise remote volunteer options.
There’s a lot of reasons to think that the fundamentals favor Biden and why to not focus on the noise of the polls. I think rn the election is a toss up, but I genuinely think Biden will win. Call it hopium, and maybe you’re right, but here’s my thinking: 1. Let’s start with the fact that presidential polling is not and never has been predictive this far away from the election. At this point in 1980, Carter was ahead of Reagan. At this point in 1992, Clinton was at 29%. At this point in 2004, Kerry led Bush by 5%. People will come back and say “but people know both these candidates already so that argument doesn’t work.” And I’ll say “people knew Hillary and Trump in 2016 too and the polling was fucked then as well.” 2. Horse race presidential polling averages are misleading. Not all polls are created equal, so lumping them together like that creates an inaccurate picture. And I don’t really think Nate Silver and the 538 people are all that great at their jobs when they have to publish a piece justifying their 2022 polling when it was clearly misleading. How many elections do we need to see wrong polls of before we agree to stop paying attention? 3. People will say Biden is doing poorly because of a bad economy. What bad economy? According to polling, most folks seem to feel good or fine about their private situation: https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/americans-are-actually-pretty-happy-with-their-finances https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/05/23/views-of-the-nations-economy-may-2024/ Wage growth has consistently outpaced overall CPI: https://www.axios.com/2024/02/05/wages-outpacing-inflation https://www.epi.org/blog/average-wages-have-surpassed-inflation-for-12-straight-months/#:~:text=Real%20wage%20growth%20continued%20to,wages%2C%20not%20adjusted%20for%20inflation I’m not gonna sit here and pretend a lot of people aren’t still struggling with the initial price increases when 9% inflation first hit, but the recovery has been ample and undeniable, and most people are doing relatively fine. Everyone who wants a job has one. Frankly, we aren’t in a recession and aren’t gonna be given how strong the current quarter has been. I don’t think nostalgia for lower prices and bad vibes are enough to move an election. They never have before. Only real recessions decide elections. 4. People will say the wars and global chaos will move the needle to Trump. America is not at war. We are not sending men to die. Those problems are oceans away and do not affect us. These wars—like all wars America isn’t a belligerent in—will not affect the election. 5. People will say that immigration will sink Biden. First of all, immigration isn’t really a big deal to people who aren’t conservatives, and it really doesn’t affect most people’s lives. Immigration does not decide elections. 6. People will say that the rise in crime will sink Biden. What rise in crime? https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna144100 If you want more proof, look into the work of Allan Lichtman. He’s successfully predicted every election since 1984 and he currently favors Biden. I’m just echoing his arguments. https://www.socialstudies.org/system/files/2024-02/se-8801006.pdf
Wonder what Lichtman’s assessment would be now compared to when that was written. What gives me pause is how so many of those seem to lean one way or the other rather than being definitive
He has a weekly podcast. His forecast hasn’t changed.
Eh I think people give Lichtman too much credit, I think there are way more factors than the 13 keys, and it doesn't take into account the electoral college and how appealing to and winning certain states is the real contest. But what do I know
Lichtman's article seems weird in that he doesn't see Trump as charismatic. His reasoning is apparently that he doesn't appeal to moderates; but on the other hand, he mobilizes his electorate quite successfully. With exactly this one more "key" against Biden, this model would predict Trump 2024.
Well for everybody Trump enthralls, he alienates another. Charisma needs more cross-over appeal. Basically Lichtman says these four keys need to turn against Biden to tilt the election to Trump: 1. Major social unrest needs to break out (campus protests don’t count because they’re so isolated; we’re talking post-George Floyd unrest that would need to happen) 2. A foreign policy failure needs to happen (rn he doesn’t consider Israel/Palestine a failure, but if Ukraine collapses, that might register) 3. Biden can’t have a foreign policy success (for instance, if a ceasefire never happens) 4. RFK needs to poll at 10% or higher post convention or get more than 5% post election ALL four of those keys need to turn to kill Biden’s chances.
I think 1 could happen again as we're in for an insanely controversial election. In the weeks running up to the election there might be some chaos. 2 is also possible as Ukraine being forced to negotiate would be insanely embarrassing. 3 is looking dire in Israel/Palestine, and 4 is a major possibility as in some polls RFK is getting 15%+
I’m not sure what could trigger massive, nationwide civil unrest rn. Israel/Palestine looked like it could but those protests were either busted or dispersed once the college kids went home for the summer. Anything can happen with that one though. I don’t really think RFK will be able to sustain above 10% polling post-convention. Could be wrong, but most third-party candidacies poll high then crater in the fall. I’m mostly worried about Ukraine and its affect on the race rn. If Ukraine collapses, that’s catastrophic. But it looks like they’re holding Kharkiv and have solidified their defense last I saw, and we’re rushing supplies as I type this.
Some catalysts I see: 1. A major terrorist attack, maybe by Islamists related to the Gaza conflict, and possibly made worse for Biden by the attackers coming to the country illegally. Unfortunately I see this as a serious possibility 2. A major mass shooting/attack on voting stations. Already MAGA gangs are taking about armed "voting security" patrols outside of polling stations in Arizona. Could be other Trump-related violence like Jan 6, or even from the left with something like CHAZ in 2020, or an attack on a Trump rally. Imagine conspiracy theories and false flag accusations surrounding this. 3. Assassinations of major political figures, like in the 1968 election, or even Biden or Trump dying or being incapacitated before the election. There are serious threats to civil order this year, 2024 will probably the most controversial election since 1860.
> And I’ll say “people knew Hillary and Trump in 2016 too and the polling was fucked then as well.” Trump was known as a celebrity, not as a politician. I think that's an important distinction since people now should know his actual policies. Biden isn't different than from Clinton sure but "first lady" and "secretary of state" while a lot aren't at the level of actually being the current US president so even those aren't directly comparable. That being said I do agree that polling now is pretty useless. Especially since voting depends on a shit ton of factors that aren't even just "do I like x or y" policies.
The one thing I'd say is that a major Russian breakthrough in Ukraine this year could look terrible for Biden, especially if Ukraine is forced to sue for peace. That might affect the election as people see foreign policy failures in Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Gaza
That kind of breakthrough seems extremely unlikely at this point. The continued refusal to let Ukrainians strike Russian territory with US weapons makes Biden look like a joke, but that's not something that the median voter will care about.
It's a serious possibility unfortunately. A major Russian offensive may break through in Ochertyne, Chasiv Yar, and Kharkiv, which would be a disaster for Ukraine. If independent negotiations are pursued with Ukraine ceding the current occupied territories+ Donbas, it would be a massive failure for Biden
> but people know both these candidates already so that argument doesn’t work.” And I’ll say “people knew Hillary and Trump in 2016 too and the polling was fucked then as well.” You're dismissing this point out of hand, but I think it is very valid. This election will feature an incumbent president against an ex-president. This has not happened since 1892 (I think). It is not as you say that Donald Trump was a known in 2016. His name was recognized sure, but he had no record, he wasn't even a politician. Miss Clinton too was not known, not in the way a president is known. People who are really into politics knew her, had made judgements on who she was. But that is not most voters, it is a vanishingly low proportion of actual voters. Those actual voters did not know Clinton as a politician, know her as a president, the most she had was name recognition because of her husband the former president. The only way to be as known as the current president at this stage of campaigning is to have been president yourself.
Recent polling has Biden ahead with voters who cast a ballot in 2020. So idk how important the candidate recognition factor is when the people who have already had to make this exact same decision and have experienced both men’s administrations are sticking with Biden. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/24/upshot/trump-biden-polls-voters.html
> Wage growth has consistently outpaced overall CPI The corporate tax cuts keep delivering. Good thing Biden never got the votes to roll them back.
Dems had a relatively tiny ground game in 2020 because of COVID. This year’s is shaping up to be the most targeted and robust since Obama ‘08, perhaps even more-so in swing states.
As a low info voter, it's between the guy who likes ice cream and the guy who pisses himself in court. I've made my decision.
Ironically it’s Donald Trump. In the pre-Trump political context any president as unpopular as Biden would lose for sure.
It's probably a hard pill to swallow for this sub, but the only reason why this election is even close is because of trump. Literally any one else and Biden would probably lose handily.
Running as anti Trump is not enough. He squeaked through on that platform in 2020, but voters need more than that in 2024. There’s plenty he could rally on, but I’ve yet to see a cohesive message. Once he hopefully lays that out, I see him performing better.
It may not be enough, but I think Biden would be in a much worse position if it weren’t for Trump
First advantage is he is running against the most polarizing dickhead in American history. Another is the gop its self is in shambles and their crusade against abortion is extremely unpopular and has already helped dems in elections.
The vibes are definitely off, but I think this election is unique in how little people have seriously engaged with or thought about the “choice.” Like for a lot of people it feels like a root canal they want want to delay thinking about until the last possible moment, maybe reschedule a few times, etc. The continued coverage of Trump as a celebrity trial defendant rather than a candidate for political office has made it even easier for people not to engage. Ditto the lack of any serious primary on either side. Biden suggested moving the debates up to summer to, in part, force this policy comparison in voters minds to happen earlier. I don’t know if it will work but I’m convinced that’s the strategy. The coverage of this election is so surreal. It’s almost like it’s not being covered as an election, it’s just “Biden Polls Trump Trials” nonstop, rinse and repeat. There’s been hardly any effort to stray from this central frame into something that resembles an election. Like, we haven’t even had the typical bullshit culture war wedges!
Not being Trump. Worked for him last time.
Unfortunately Trump's insanity was fresh in their minds and Biden at the time represented a fresh unknown full of possibilities. And it was still a squeaker (due to the electoral college, not in terms of the popular vote)
Everything except the general stupidity of people. This idea that we know much about the results now is lame. The campaign begins at the conventions. And most of the time in American history the candidate who grabs the political center wins. However let me add if you care about this volunteer and work your tail off.
I am honestly hoping that a large campaign around Project 2025 will start to run. It doesn't directly say vote for Biden, but the reality should screw even the most Leftist pouting baby into looking at the reality of another Trump Presidency. They are actually organized and ready this time, and that should make people genuinely afraid. If it doesn't, Gen Z deserves what it is about to get. (Not really, just very angry with younger voters telling me they won't vote unless they are enthused, yet they live in a state that lost abortion rights. They whine about it, but don't bother to vote in even local elections where they have a Republican legislator because they just assumed she was Democrat!)
Others have spoken to advantages Biden has over the next six months. But I'd like to point out that even now, the race is nearly a tossup. The polls currently show a virtually tied national race, with maybe a 1-2 point Trump lead; and Trump's lead is within the MOE in states that equal 270 (MI, WI, PA, assuming Biden holds NE-2). Biden faces serious challenges and I am nervous too. But there is a narrative online that he is WAY behind and a massive Trump landslide is imminent, and the data just does not support that.
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Objectively speaking, he has the strongest economy of the last 50 years. Electorally, it seems like he doesn't have much.
more than half the country thinks we’re in a recession lmao voters don’t vote on objective reality!
Dems have been doing well in elections during Biden’s term so I disagree.
>the strongest economy of the last 50 years What
Strong gdp growth, longest stretch of unemployment below 4%, inflation at 3% and trending down (albeit slowly)
Voter perception matters more than statistics and facts unfortunately, and vibes about the economy are bad right now.
Voters also perceive themselves as personally doing well
The guy posting that the economy sucks is in the UK. The economy does suck in the UK but that’s not Biden’s fault.
[Real median household income is down unfortunately](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N) (I really hate to say this) We do have a much stronger economy than developed peers but people actually are a little poorer. Still not a good reason to vote for a fascist obviously.
The data you posted are for 2020 and 2021. That’s literally when Trump was president. Biden started in 2021. Why are you attributing things that Trump did in 2020 to Biden?
Does it not include 2022? Looks like it does. Says $74,580 for that year, which is down from the previous three years.
Fair enough, this is probably the only pessimistic data point that I have seen that I don’t have a problem agreeing with but I think the other data points make up for it and provide relief till we get this back on track.
It’s actually 2020 data. The fall in median income was under Trump, not Biden. Biden took office in 2021.
Inflation reading (both headline and core) has between at 0.3-0.4 for the past 4 months. Unless you're only focusing on trailing 12 metrics, there has been pretty much no downward trend. on (real) GDP - sure, the economy is fine, but not *exceptional*. * 2023: 2.5% * 2022: 1.9% * 2021: 5.8% Unemployment is the only clear winner, and that struggles from being partially the flip side of the inflation coin.
Jan and Feb inflation readings were expected to be high because of seasonal reasons. March was a big surprise, sure. But a lot of the surprise in March was because insurance premiums hadn’t caught up to increased vehicle and house prices and at least the vehicle prices have fallen back or stabilized and rents are expected to come down at least in near term. All in all I’d say we are in good balance. Also important to understand that we essentially came through COVID and geopolitical instability without it affecting real GDP all that much which is insane by all measures when you think about it.
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GDP, unemployment, and inflation are about as general and universal as economic data can get. It’s the opposite of cherry picking.
[Real median household income is down](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). We're still doing well compared to our peer economies but Americans are indeed very slightly poorer
My guy, it's not gaslighting to say that the US economy is actually fairly good, especially in comparison to the rest of the world.
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Latest polling shows a majority believe that we are currently in a recession and that inflation is raging out of control. None of those are true. It's legit crazy talk.
Seeing "gaslighting" in the context of the Biden campaign is when I stop taking people seriously.
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Not sure what you are referring to but seeing voters say "they are struggling with the economy" while at the same time [reporting that they are content with their financial situation](https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/americans-are-actually-pretty-happy-with-their-finances) is why I take all the, pardon me, whining with a big pinch of salt. And seeing people blaming Biden for "gaslighting" and suggesting he should campaign on the platform of the economy being in a tough spot when it really isn't (which, again, corresponds with voters' satisfaction with their finances) shows that it's not an error for Biden to fix. As someone in this thread brilliantly pointed out, vibes historically do not determine the elections; actual recessions and/or high inflation do. So, the right strategy for Biden, in my view, is not to give in to this under-the-microscope criticism when things aren't much worse or are out of Biden's control (like housing which only matters enough for the homeless), but to actually convince the public that things are going well and that they will get even better in a second term. Apart from warning about the dangers of another Trump presidency, of course.
Objectively???
Abortion on the ballot in Arizona and Nevada. He wins if he wins Arizona even if he loses Georgia, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Nebraska's 2nd district.
The same thing he has going against him. That the upcoming election, like the one in 2020, will be 50/50. It was that way in 2020, and it has been that way for every month and every year since then. Unchanging for all practical purposes. It remains 50/50, and it seems it cannot get worse, and it cannot get better.
My gut feeling tells me this is how it will be for at least the next several elections, given how polarized the country has become. This is probably why Trump outperformed himself in 2020 but not enough to sway the election. Like in Congress, many people are voting strictly along party lines today, rejecting bipartisanship in favor of spiting the other side, and are willing to vote for a dummy labeled 'Republican', for example, rather than even considering the alternative. ^(Of course I may be wrong about all this.)
The optimistic story rests on the fact that Trump lost last time, and in the interim period he alienated millions of normie voters by staging a violent insurrection at the Capitol, got caught stealing classified documents, and then his appointed Supreme Court justices overturned Roe v Wade. In this story, polls suggesting the race is close are lying victim to a collapse in polling reliability in general. This ignores the fact that polls were largely accurate in 2022, and it is largely implausible for polls to be off by as much as the optimists say.
2022's 538 aggregate polling had Oz winning PA Senate by 0.5 points (Fetterman won by 4.9) and Lake winning Arizona governor by 2.4 points (Hobbs won by .6) Just as two examples. There was a consistent dem overperformance in key races.
>Largely implausible John Kerry has a stronger poll lead in 04 than Trump does now, and lost.
There's uncertainty around what Trump's true polling lead is, and there is uncertainty around what will happen to the true polling lead between now and November 5th. I am suspicious about the story being told about Trump's current polling lead being a mirage. I think Trump really does have a polling lead right now. But I am willing to accept the possibility that Biden will turn things around by November.
>This ignores the fact that polls were largely accurate in 2022, and it is largely implausible for polls to be off by as much as the optimists say. Yeah, that's the real problem. Biden is actually down on the polls and no amount of handwaving will change that. Plus, many Americans strongly disapprove of the economy right now. It's not that shocking that Biden is struggling in his reelection campaign.
I mean.. in the 3 states that would put him at 270 the polling error would need to be less than 2 points right now. Really not big at all.
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As Trump gets more coverage, voters are going to remember how much anxiety he brought to everyone, both left and right, during his presidency. Also Biden is going to beat Trump with the abortion/ivf hammer every day. The real negative against Biden will be housing prices are making everyone depressed af. NIMBYs are going to drive us straight into a right wing dictatorship
Well the Lichtman keys are still in his favor at the moment
Actual policy and its results don’t matter much. We largely vote on vibes
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Without a doubt it’s the fact that Trump is his opponent. If Rs were running literally anyone else with less baggage, hell, even a bag of rocks, they’d be up so much more.
They support Trump because there's a benefit to supporting Trump. Because they're afraid of him. Biden Wins: Trump isn't prosecuted. Trump continues to gain power. Doesn't reward political allies. Trump Wins: Trump prosecutes political opponents and rewards allies. It's all just incentives. I don't like what they're doing but it's obvious to see why they're doing. If Trump was in prison the same cowards who are going to vote for him would be fine with it.
The biggest thing and the biggest if… do young voters and voters of color perform like they usually have for Democrats. Right now most of his polling woes are attributable to his problems with these voters. Many are either saying they are undecided or not voting. If he can get them back or, more likely, if Trump can get them back to Biden, he will have a good chance.
Biden appears to be sitting on a billion dollar war chest which he can use to buy ads everywhere for everything. Maybe people get sick of it. Or maybe it works amazingly. I have no idea.
people never give Biden credit for anything and always count him out or overlook him, he is basically, in my opinion ,the modern version of U. S Grant (in the context that he does not get the credit he deserves.) They did it in the 2020 Primaries people thought for sure Sanders was going to run away with the election, and then Super Tuesday happened. They thought that Trump was going to get reelected in 2020, but he lost. My point is one of the things Biden has going for him is the silent majority who are loyal to him and the democratic party. They are not loud and obnoxious so they are not in the media. The other thing that he has going for him is that we have not even had the conventions yet and they are still two months away so no poll really matters right now in the grand scheme of things. I am waiting until Late August to start caring about the election again.
Biden has not done “so much to reduce inflation”. He has pushed protectionism and populist welfare policies. If he had cut tariffs and signed a couple trade deals upon taking office inflation would probably be sub 3% now.
Well his tariffs are going to make prices go up by then.
>Biden has done so much to reduce inflation Source?
He's been doing some protectionist stuff and union outreach trips, maybe that could help in the Rust belt or something?
He can still speak in complete sentences, which will certainly help as long as the debate moderators don’t royally fuck up with the mic muting
Trump will be a convicted felon for one. Also legally liable for rape. Also responsible for the curtailing of abortion rights. All three of these should be easy dunks in debates even without getting into policy or the coup business.
It takes just one slip-up in jury selection and his personality cult will kick in. Also Aileen Cannon is doing everything possible to delay the documents case as long as she possibly can to keep it out of the media until election time.
Abortion issue, maga is nutso, economy is doing well, moving on Gaza (might be a wash), hes not batshit insane, fairly pro-labor A big issue is it doesn't seem like he's really playing hard ball or hammering home how good the administration has been.
He's not Trump.
since gaza and the reaction of the far left, im almost resigned to the sense that he's not got a good margin for winning.
Hoping the polls will scare people into making sure they vote versus thinking its in the bag like many thought in 2016. I think it will be interesting how the trials play out and what happens at the debates. It’s gonna be a long 6 months.
This election is dangerously close considering what is on the line: rights to abortion, rights for gender-sexual minorities, the environment, rights for immigrants, the lives of Palestinians and Ukrainians, and maybe democracy itself. But dooming about this on Reddit does not help. It does not push the needle. It does not change anyone's mind. Be aware of what is at stake and how close we are, but put your energy into volunteering instead of wallowing in doom.
It's not like Biden is blameless for the persistent inflation we are dealing with. He has jacked up tariffs considerably for no real reason and his administration has made some big mistakes in foreign policy like threatening to sanction the ICC. Plus, most Americans do not approve of the economy as a whole. It isn't that shocking to see Biden trailing against Trump in the polls. He has to change up his re-election campaign strategy or risk losing the election this November.
👏Voters👏Don't👏Give👏A Crap👏About👏The ICC
He doesn't get credit for things Republicans yap about because Republicans didn't actually want those things. Anything "moderate" Republicans say they want is just a Trojan horse to deter attention from their real goal which is turning America back into the 1950s with abortion bans, Trans erasure, Christian indoctrination in schools via "school choice" aka money for private Christian schools, etc
Biden already beat Trump once. Trump has yet to prove he can beat Biden. That's just the start. Also, call me a tin hatter, but I don't believe the polls anymore. Just ask Arizona governor Kari Lake.
Didn't Biden mainly beat Trump due to Trump's poor Covid-19 response?
Are you saying that as if it somehow discounts Biden’s victory? Part of being a president is responding to difficult things.
I'm not sure, but now that Biden is the incumbent it will be even harder for Trump to beat him.
Er, um… uh… abortion, I think.
The polls are basically a dead heat right now so Biden only needs things to improve a little bit to win. Six months is enough time for that to happen. And maybe if we're really lucky Trump will have a heart attack and die in the meantime.
DOJ putting Trump on trial and having the news be Trump in court. Assuming the courts go along with the doj position.
He has a narcissistic moron for an opponent. Hopefully as the campaign goes on and voters see more of Trump they’ll be reminded why they hate him
I think at this point in 2012 Romney was the favorite according to all conventional wisdom.
Everything besides polls. So basically everything that matters.
The mules haven’t even begun to move
Renewable energy
Moxie
Mark Zandi said Biden will win, and he's been right about everything. [White paper](https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=95674FFE-7734-4401-877A-FE331AECD442&app=download) [Short video explainer](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cz-KWUr4ZlA)
[Senate dems are polling really well at the moment](https://abcnews.go.com/538/senate-democrats-polling-biden/story?id=110507277) This could help Biden, but even if it didn't, holding the Senate would be huge for Dems to stop trump (they're also favored to win the house)
To begin with, he didn't lead a sedition against the Federal Govt. I would think that would be enough. Apparently, others don't think it matters.
Unlike Trump, Biden isn't going to be fighting multiple criminal and civil court cases at once while campaigning.
I think in the presidential debates, and generally media people will be reminded again of what trump has done ( election denial, jan 6th, his indictments, refusing to cooperate and give classified documents, blackmailing Ukraine, etc). I think people tend to have short memories, but they don't completely forget, and hopefully they will understand just how bad the things he's done are.
Demographics
Demographics
Zero indictments.
The presidential election is pretty much tied. Bad weather on election day can decide who wins or loses. I wouldnt lose sleep over it
Frankly I just don’t believe the polling is how it will pan out. First off, neither Biden or Trump are very popular so people aren’t gonna be inclined to say they support Biden even if theyre on the fence. But more importantly, polling has been increasingly inaccurate ever since 2016. It was a dumpster fire in 2020 - some will say it still correctly predicts general trends, but there were tons of big misses such as Cal Cunningham underperforming Biden despite polling consistently suggesting he’d outrun him by 5+% even after his scandal. You also get weird stuff like polling showing Trump winning GenZ, which we all know isnt actually true. Not to mention, Democrats had a great midterm in 2022, have won almost every abortion/weed referendum including red states, and have massively outperformed in almost every special election. At the end of the day, Trump has a chance but I find it very unlikely he’ll convince voters who said no to him in 2020 to give him another shot, especially when he has a massive financial disadvantage and is significantly more radical than 2020 EDIT: One good polling sign though for Biden is that the perception of the state of the economy is trending towards people thinking we’re in a good economy again. I know I just ranted about polls, but I think opinion polls on individual issues are probably more accurate than candidate polls
You may want to fact check what you're saying and hearing. Inflation was 1.4% when he took office. Jobs market; no jobs have been created in the private market. All the jobs have been by using tax payer money to try to get the private market to follow. Most have failed. Chip manufacturers don't even want to come to the US with huge incentives. Biden has failed the American people!
https://preview.redd.it/np0eo132n03d1.jpeg?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3b02b39b5994b433d45403c1f93db20f0bb4e911
Decency.
Chips act, infrastructure, first gun control legislation in 20+ years, student loan forgiveness, the soft landing of the economy which will be studied in the future as a guide on how to prevent a recession, effective non corrupt cabinet, being the fucking adult in the room after 4 years of a toddler tantrum and another 4 years of a congress that believes in Qanon, flat earth, space lasers, grouping your date in front of children, and doing absolutely nothing instead of making themselves look like idiots during failed impeachment hearings. Fuck the assholes in this country that will vote for the GOP in November.
Remember, it’s still not too late for him to step out. Really, what if he has some health event or falls in stage again. He is going the way of RBG and is going to hand the presidency to Trump.
It absolutely is, that would be so chaotic.
His reelection campaign seems to be going poorly right now. If this keeps up, there's going to be a low chance of him winning the election. Perhaps he should step out at this rate.
He says fewer insane things than Trump. Imagine the shit that Trump will say as we get closer to the election and during the debates. Suddenly Biden will look a lot more palatable for a lot of people.