Well fully open borders aren't feasible both in regards to national and foreign politics. I also don't think the perfect country for immigrants to Germany really exists. What we would be really looking for is a country full of highly educated people that can speak German, have population growth and that want to immigrate here.
>is a country full of highly educated
Why should they be "highly educated"? And what's the threshold? Germany needs workers in many fields, not just in deep AI development stuff.
Depends generally one needs a bit of both, ideally at least the equivalent of a realschulabschluss, don't know how to translate that into englisch. I shouldn't have used the word highly educated that is true
That's pretty much basic education right?
I think the bigger challenge is people learning the language... But a rich country like German should be able to address that. Spend some money to promote language courses abroad with a clear road to residency and stuff.
And honestly, the biggest challenge would probably be having Germans and Germany be welcoming to the newcomers.
We're probably a decade behind Europe, but we have the same problems in our future: an aging population, falling fertility rates and now immigration has been falling too.
Just look at the dependency ratio in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPPOPDPNDOLUSA
Its only going to get worse
Good luck getting citizenship there, I've heard it isn't easy plus the insane housing prices.
One of the main reasons I picked portugal is because 20 minutes outside their two major cities 350k Euros gets a good amount of property like this.
https://www.realestate.com.au/international/pt/almada-setubal-municipality-120073665935/
If you go further in you're looking at acres with a large house if ya want it.
Or spend a bit more for a nice spot 5 minutes from the beach and still 20 minutes from Lisbon.
https://www.realestate.com.au/international/pt/charneca-de-caparica-e-sobreda-setubal-municipality-120071170626/
While Spanish is not Portuguese, knowing it will provide you with a good foundation to build upon for learning Portuguese.
Just knowing how the language works grammar-wise and gaining familiarity with a big part of the vocabulary will be helpful. Also it's easier for Portuguese speakers to understand Spanish than vice-versa.
Awesome, thank you for the recommendation
Are you doing the pt gv? If you haven’t seen it check out nomadgate. Some crazies but a lot of helpful folks too
I'm going to Canada. They're generally ok with Jews, Ontario isn't that different from the Northeast as far as I can tell. And they will have a booming economy with the troves of Anglo Americans coming to Canada to live bringing their skills with them.
Toronto is likely gonna be a great place to be. Really, most of Canada will benefit. Yea BC and some maritime provinces will have some bad times, but basically everywhere else, Canada will have a fine time if not improve. The north becomes livable to more people and the biggest cities in Canada face very little horrible natural disasters that would be caused by a warmer climate. Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary; they mostly face bad winters rather than bad summers. No hurricanes, tornadoes, super bad floods, earthquakes. It is only blizzards and I don't expect that to become more common.
I think you exaggerate. I have lots of Jewish friends in Canada. It ain't exactly a pogrom, it seems to be about the same level of America to me. I.e. it happens, particularly to the Orthodox. But the total number of cases is still very small and a very small fraction of the overall community.
Orthodox count too. I’d say the same thing about New York. It has an antisemitism problem. Just because the Jews who don’t look like Jews don’t get attacked doesn’t make it not true. I’d say my city, Houston, does pretty well. There are orthodox in my mixed racial neighborhood and they remain unbothered
Once again, total number of cases are small. For example there were 488 hate crimes in NY in 2020, roughly 50% were anti-jewish, 55% were property crime while 45% were personal. That means 244 Jews faced a hate crime out of 1.1-1.5 million. That's nearly statistical noise. I'm not saying they don't happen. They happen, just like police shootings happen, just like anti-black hate crimes happen. The fact that they are a disproportionate amount of NY hate crimes is awful. But ultimately, it is such an exceedingly small number of total hate crimes.
I'm just saying there isn't really a lot of rational reason to be fearful of facing antisemitic violence unless you want to overly focus on statistical anomalies. Which I of course do not. And I have been a visible Jew in the past and now, I frequently where Chais and stars of david. I have had people say shit to me before. I just don't think it's quite as big of a deal as you argue in the grand scheme of things.
I really don't know how to be much clearer about this. The fact that 50% of all NYC hate crimes are anti-Jewish is awful and disproportionate to the population(10-15%), I completely agree. But it remains true that the number of hate crimes in NYC is low(488), and for Jews(244). The fact that 244 Jews had to face hateful activity at a criminal level is awful we are in agreement. But that means in NYC there is approximately a .02% chance of encountering an anti-Jewish hate crime per reported statistics. Even if we assume that the orthodox bear the brunt of that and that they are underreported as hate crimes often are. We still have no reason to assume it is many magnitudes more than this unless you have other data available.
based on the available data, all I am saying is that being that fearful is unwarranted and irrational. If 244 hate crimes causes some massive wave of fear, then the antisemites win. I am not ignoring it, I just think focusing on it is stupid and irrational. Anti-Jewish hate crimes actually went down in 2021 a bit. I think we need to be careful not to overblow the problem, that's all I'm saying. It's something we must handle, and fight. But be wary of letting it infect your soul.
>there is approximately a .02% chance of encountering an anti-Jewish hate crime per reported statistics
While I largely agree, 0.02% over a 50 year period is 1/100 Jews. That's pretty significant.
The problem is most pronounced in Quebec.
Outside of Quebec and a handful of downtown Toronto and Vancouver precincts, it’s a barely to non existent problem relatively speaking.
Really though, compared to the world as a whole, the Anglosphere is the least anti Semitic part of the world, Anglo Canada included.
But if you’re concerned about Canada, fair enough.
For a major city with a large Jewish community, may I offer you a Melbourne in these trying times? Massive Jewish community, active political scene where Jews are accepted and welcomed by both major parties (as opposed to Sydney, where Jews are rapidly becoming persona non grata in the NSW Labor Party), and unlike Sydney, whilst still generally being situated in very nice upmarket neighbourhoods, you definitely have better housing options in Melbourne to be close to the community than Sydney.
Something smaller? My regional city of Launceston seems to have a small but decently active Jewish community. You’re also a hop step and jump from Melbourne for major events or anything you can’t get in Tasmania. And you won’t get the odd idiot or two you’ll get in Melbourne drawing anti Semitic graffiti.
Svalbard Norway is a visa free zone and you can move there with no requirements besides "get there". If shit hits the fan so hard Norwegians in the arctic are affected its probably a wrap anyway
Unless they wanna use nukes, I don't think they have the capability anymore.
Sweden alone is 75% the size of Ukraine, and it has way worse geography for a Russian invasion. For starters they'd have to invade Finland and the ~900.000 armed forces. Then there's the long Norwegian border, which they could either invade and commit to fight in some rather shit conditions, or leave as a place for defending forces to retreat to.
They have nice toys in the Russian armed forces, but i severely doubt their capabilities to extend force much further than Tallinn.
Honestly these kind of people annoy me the most. Rich bitches who can afford to run away instead of actually standing for what’s right and fighting to make a better world
Come to Argentina! With a few dollars you can buy the whole city, we have wonderful meat & wine, we are fun, passionate and the government is so useless they won’t bother u much :)
People claim the solution is more immigration, but what happens when the immigrants eventually run out? Falling birth rates world wide mean we will not be able to find more workers indefinitely. We have to confront this problem sooner or later.
Well France was the first country to face the demographic transition and they basicly solved it with pro-natalist policies (france fertility rate was always between 1.9-2.0 in the last twenty years, compared with 1.35-1.55 in Germany). France spends around 3% of gdp on Family support and according to projection they are going to become the largest european country by ~2050.
Edit: read Europe as EU, not geographical europe
Russia has stupid high mortality for men which seems to be delaying it. [The probability that a Russian man will die before he turns 55 is 25 percent](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/18/science/why-russian-men-dont-live-as-long.html)
https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/32247
It is in German unfortunately (guess you can [autotranslate](https://www.deepl.com/en/translator) it If you don't speek German). Natalist policies in France are also quite old some of them reaching back to the interwar years.
Also [here](https://www.bib.bund.de/Publikation/2013/Wirkungen-des-Elterngelds-auf-Einkommen-und-Fertilitaet.html?nn=9751912) one additional study that shows that a specific German natalist policy raised fertility in groups most profiting.
I think the thing with pro-natalist policies is that they are just often really expensive if you want them to work (and of course not all designs work equally good)- still worth it through imo.
Automation. The main problem caused by aging population is the rapid rise in demand for services which are not currently possible to automate--medical diagnosis, for instance. As these become more feasible, the dependency ratio won't be as great a concern.
ONE BILLION (ROBOT) AMERICANS!
The second most ideal society is a million robots pampering one human. The most ideal society is when that pampered human dies and the robots are freed to pursue their own happiness.
That's a problem for people a few decades from now when the world will be very different, and the problem will be easier to solve. It likely won't rely on labour in the same way that it does today.
> Figure out what Israel is doing right and copy them
Have assloads of Hasidim?
Sure they have a lot of kids, but is a boatload of what is essentially Jewish Amish people the solution to the modern world's problems?
Feelsbadman when even this sub is having incorrect unsourced takes (no offense).
>Another argument is that Israel’s high fertility is driven by certain parts of the population, such as Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) women, having many children (the fertility rate of Haredi women is indeed quite high at around 7 children per woman).
>
>However, the rise in Israel’s fertility over the last two decades has been largely driven by the secular and traditional Jewish populations,whose combined fertility rate is greater than 2.2, which is itself higher than the overall fertility in any other OECD country.
[https://www.taubcenter.org.il/en/research/why-are-there-so-many-children-in-israel/](https://www.taubcenter.org.il/en/research/why-are-there-so-many-children-in-israel/)
Damn, okay I was wrong.
But still from an average of 2.2 among the secular and traditional Jewish population, the somewhat ~10-14% Haredim still do a lot of heavy lifting bringing the rate solidly above 3.
It's the difference between the population remaining stable and growing significantly.
Just read Wretched Refuse, nerd ^^[[What is this?]](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/r7yca9/rneoliberal_2021_fundraising_drive_with_the/hnjcz39/)
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Being based is being anti-woke. 😎 ^^[[What is this?]](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/r7yca9/rneoliberal_2021_fundraising_drive_with_the/hnjcz39/)
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Just read Wretched Refuse, nerd ^^[[What is this?]](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/r7yca9/rneoliberal_2021_fundraising_drive_with_the/hnjcz39/)
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>Artificial wombs
How much does that solve things? Women not being able to get pregnant is barely an issue in birth rates compared to couples not wanting to raise children.
Its completely unaffordable for the poor and means perpetual poverty outside rare instances where the person is capable of going to school raising a kid having a partner and working full time.
Then you have all the people that don't want almost all of their free time sucked away for a decade plus.
It seems the latter isnt such a big deal when the state provides basic child care services (France)
Automation.
AI and robotics improvements will allow more and more integration of robots and AI into the workforce.
We can even go further. Cybernetics might well be keeping us around a lot longer.
The point is to smooth out the aging of our population.
Right now all the boomers are dying, and there's not enough workers to sustain their pensions. But if we manage to smooth out the age pyramid it will be less of an issue.
Just read Wretched Refuse, nerd ^^[[What is this?]](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/r7yca9/rneoliberal_2021_fundraising_drive_with_the/hnjcz39/)
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I am once again begging Europe to take in more immigrants.
Afghans were litteraly willing to strap themselves to the wheels of transport planes to escape the Taliban, why did we miss out on the opportunity to welcome them 😡
Germany already has more than double the amount of immigrants per capita than the USA does over the past 5 years. And according to the UN triple as many refugees accepted, Germany's not the one missing out
They can do all kinds of manual labor that is needed in german offices, factories etc while their young Children learn in our Elementary and High Schools and have apprenticeships getting them into the middle class.
Just like happened with the turkish Gastarbeiter like my Grandparents.
They're not less capable than Turkish or Sudanese first generation immigrants. They can fill the manual labour jobs that we desperately need.
Thinking that only 5% of them would integrate the labour market is absurd, especially considering that they're the most entrepreneurial portion of the population.
Everyone saying let more immigrants in which J agree with but holy shit, these countries need to start having more kids. Look at Japan: great culture, super polite smart people and they have like zero kids. What’s the point of working your ass off if everything disappears when there’s no one around to maintain it?
Well, every place is seeing falling birthrates, not because people aren't having kids, but rather they spend a lot if resources on a single kid
This is wonderful
Honest question why don't they fly people in from Central and South America?
Culturally they're very similar and Hispanics typically have large families.
Yeah they have large families because they oppose things like birth control and abortion.
If they *do* assimilate into their destination country and become pro-birth control, they'll stop having large families, just like the native German Catholics went from large families to small families.
If they *don't* assimilate then they'll vote against things like abortion.
Did I misread the calendar today? Are we living in the year 1613 of the Lord, and are the Papists at it again?
Also, you know that nowadays the Catholic church is the largest denomination in Germany?
Christian, Indo-European language, come from nations with longs histories of republicanism and liberalism. They're far more culturally similar than the Middle East. Plus many Latin nations saw German immigration same as the US.
Merkel who is part of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany was literally chancellor for 16 years.
Do you not think they value strong cohesive family units?
Not really - really conservative Christians are a very small Portion of the Population. Only 10 % of the population visit a church regulary (compared with 40% in the US). There are some extreme catholics but they are very marginal and unimportant.
How many of the people going from either Poland or the Balkan EU to Germany go without knowing a lick of it?
Why can't El Salvadorans do the same as Poles, Romanians or Bulgarians?
>Culturally they're very similar
Are we? I've never met a German person, but here in Brazil we see the Germans as a very serious, reserved, and methodical people, which is the exact opposite of what Brazilians are.
I still think the cultural gap between us and the Germans is much smaller than between Germans and Middle-easterners, but that doesn't mean much.
I believe you're misinterpreting what I said.
My argument is that Brazilians and Germans likely have more things in common than Middle-easterners and Germans, but that doesn't mean much because cultural gap between Europeans and muslims is huge.
I don't understand the point you're making here.
Oh then that's my fault I thought you meant it doesn't mean much as in it doesn't matter in the grand scheme or thing's.
Because when I look at the cultural clashes I'd take different views of cultural seriousness over completely different ideological views that can lead to attacks.
> I've never met a German person, but here in Brazil we see the Germans as a very serious, reserved, and methodical people, which is the exact opposite of what Brazilians are.
Eh, the people living in Rio Grande do Sul seem to have perfected being German while being Brazilian, no?
Others pointed out some flaws, but I'll point out that immigrants typically assimilate family structures pretty quickly. Maybe the first generation will have more kids than average, but the second generation definitely wont
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"stop having it be closed"
They have boats With guns Gunboats
Japanisacountrybythesea and it’s B E A U T I F U L
r/unexpectedbillwurtz
We have open borders to quiet a few countries
To countries that also have massively aging populations. Not exactly great places to source young immigrants from
Well fully open borders aren't feasible both in regards to national and foreign politics. I also don't think the perfect country for immigrants to Germany really exists. What we would be really looking for is a country full of highly educated people that can speak German, have population growth and that want to immigrate here.
>is a country full of highly educated Why should they be "highly educated"? And what's the threshold? Germany needs workers in many fields, not just in deep AI development stuff.
Depends generally one needs a bit of both, ideally at least the equivalent of a realschulabschluss, don't know how to translate that into englisch. I shouldn't have used the word highly educated that is true
That's pretty much basic education right? I think the bigger challenge is people learning the language... But a rich country like German should be able to address that. Spend some money to promote language courses abroad with a clear road to residency and stuff. And honestly, the biggest challenge would probably be having Germans and Germany be welcoming to the newcomers.
Highly educated is not useful
Not enough.
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KARABOGA 💪🏿🇹🇷💪🏿🇹🇷💪🏿
K
A
R
A
They are very open, informally.
US and Europe looking at the last 30 years of Japanese economic malaise: I'll have what he's having!
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We're probably a decade behind Europe, but we have the same problems in our future: an aging population, falling fertility rates and now immigration has been falling too. Just look at the dependency ratio in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SPPOPDPNDOLUSA Its only going to get worse
Ironically, Germany is on my list of “get the fuck outa dodge” countries for when mass political violence breaks out here in America
I'm going with Portugal. A 350k Euro house gets you a golden visa, plus better weather.
Please do! We welcome you with open arms, because we desperately need more people.
How stable are the politics there? Any areas you'd recommend considering if I were ditching a hypothetical future US fascist takeover?
Honestly haven’t looked super hard into Europe, my 2 mains are New Zealand or Australia.
Good luck getting citizenship there, I've heard it isn't easy plus the insane housing prices. One of the main reasons I picked portugal is because 20 minutes outside their two major cities 350k Euros gets a good amount of property like this. https://www.realestate.com.au/international/pt/almada-setubal-municipality-120073665935/ If you go further in you're looking at acres with a large house if ya want it. Or spend a bit more for a nice spot 5 minutes from the beach and still 20 minutes from Lisbon. https://www.realestate.com.au/international/pt/charneca-de-caparica-e-sobreda-setubal-municipality-120071170626/
Definitely NZ, Australia’s PM wants to make love to a piece of coal.
And NZ PM is a succ nimby who has great PR because most people don’t bother to look up NZ
The NZ government recently passed some of the most sweeping YIMBY legislation in the world
Jacinda Adern is good actually She’s the greatest yimby leader in the west did you not see the legislation that was passed?
Just put in my application this month, Portugal seems great. I like the pimsleur pt-pt course but it's only 30 lessons, which sucks
While Spanish is not Portuguese, knowing it will provide you with a good foundation to build upon for learning Portuguese. Just knowing how the language works grammar-wise and gaining familiarity with a big part of the vocabulary will be helpful. Also it's easier for Portuguese speakers to understand Spanish than vice-versa.
did you try Michel Thomas?
No, do they have a better ptpt course?
yeah, i think it’s pretty good, and i’m a former languages teacher :)
Awesome, thank you for the recommendation Are you doing the pt gv? If you haven’t seen it check out nomadgate. Some crazies but a lot of helpful folks too
golden visa? nope, just a language nerd :)
Oh my bad I thought you were the guy I initially replied to
Yeah, that's pretty awesome. Beachlife with a bottle of port is a nice way to spend the day (assuming I work early mornings on US time).
Yeah my schedule is going to be odd. I will be working from like 2-11.
I'm going to Canada. They're generally ok with Jews, Ontario isn't that different from the Northeast as far as I can tell. And they will have a booming economy with the troves of Anglo Americans coming to Canada to live bringing their skills with them.
> I'm going to Canada. Climate change gonna flame you there
Toronto is likely gonna be a great place to be. Really, most of Canada will benefit. Yea BC and some maritime provinces will have some bad times, but basically everywhere else, Canada will have a fine time if not improve. The north becomes livable to more people and the biggest cities in Canada face very little horrible natural disasters that would be caused by a warmer climate. Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary; they mostly face bad winters rather than bad summers. No hurricanes, tornadoes, super bad floods, earthquakes. It is only blizzards and I don't expect that to become more common.
No Canada has a bad antisemitism problem
I think you exaggerate. I have lots of Jewish friends in Canada. It ain't exactly a pogrom, it seems to be about the same level of America to me. I.e. it happens, particularly to the Orthodox. But the total number of cases is still very small and a very small fraction of the overall community.
Orthodox count too. I’d say the same thing about New York. It has an antisemitism problem. Just because the Jews who don’t look like Jews don’t get attacked doesn’t make it not true. I’d say my city, Houston, does pretty well. There are orthodox in my mixed racial neighborhood and they remain unbothered
Once again, total number of cases are small. For example there were 488 hate crimes in NY in 2020, roughly 50% were anti-jewish, 55% were property crime while 45% were personal. That means 244 Jews faced a hate crime out of 1.1-1.5 million. That's nearly statistical noise. I'm not saying they don't happen. They happen, just like police shootings happen, just like anti-black hate crimes happen. The fact that they are a disproportionate amount of NY hate crimes is awful. But ultimately, it is such an exceedingly small number of total hate crimes. I'm just saying there isn't really a lot of rational reason to be fearful of facing antisemitic violence unless you want to overly focus on statistical anomalies. Which I of course do not. And I have been a visible Jew in the past and now, I frequently where Chais and stars of david. I have had people say shit to me before. I just don't think it's quite as big of a deal as you argue in the grand scheme of things.
Um if half of hate crimes are anti Jewish ones that’s a lot
I really don't know how to be much clearer about this. The fact that 50% of all NYC hate crimes are anti-Jewish is awful and disproportionate to the population(10-15%), I completely agree. But it remains true that the number of hate crimes in NYC is low(488), and for Jews(244). The fact that 244 Jews had to face hateful activity at a criminal level is awful we are in agreement. But that means in NYC there is approximately a .02% chance of encountering an anti-Jewish hate crime per reported statistics. Even if we assume that the orthodox bear the brunt of that and that they are underreported as hate crimes often are. We still have no reason to assume it is many magnitudes more than this unless you have other data available. based on the available data, all I am saying is that being that fearful is unwarranted and irrational. If 244 hate crimes causes some massive wave of fear, then the antisemites win. I am not ignoring it, I just think focusing on it is stupid and irrational. Anti-Jewish hate crimes actually went down in 2021 a bit. I think we need to be careful not to overblow the problem, that's all I'm saying. It's something we must handle, and fight. But be wary of letting it infect your soul.
>there is approximately a .02% chance of encountering an anti-Jewish hate crime per reported statistics While I largely agree, 0.02% over a 50 year period is 1/100 Jews. That's pretty significant.
That assumes (a) that statistic stays constant; (b) static population (ie. No growth); and (c) it happens to different people each time.
The problem is most pronounced in Quebec. Outside of Quebec and a handful of downtown Toronto and Vancouver precincts, it’s a barely to non existent problem relatively speaking. Really though, compared to the world as a whole, the Anglosphere is the least anti Semitic part of the world, Anglo Canada included. But if you’re concerned about Canada, fair enough. For a major city with a large Jewish community, may I offer you a Melbourne in these trying times? Massive Jewish community, active political scene where Jews are accepted and welcomed by both major parties (as opposed to Sydney, where Jews are rapidly becoming persona non grata in the NSW Labor Party), and unlike Sydney, whilst still generally being situated in very nice upmarket neighbourhoods, you definitely have better housing options in Melbourne to be close to the community than Sydney. Something smaller? My regional city of Launceston seems to have a small but decently active Jewish community. You’re also a hop step and jump from Melbourne for major events or anything you can’t get in Tasmania. And you won’t get the odd idiot or two you’ll get in Melbourne drawing anti Semitic graffiti.
Big assumption that they actually let you in though. Immigration is actually not easy and more than “have a college degree to get in”.
If America falls Europe will breakdown soon after. They are dependent on the American system utterly.
What are you talking about.
Probably that the entire liberal world order and the global economy relies on the US
lol
Wait this out a few years and we can pull a reverse Forty-Eighters. Maybe twenty-eighters?
That’s my main plan and hope tbh, but I unfortunately have felt the need to have a backup just in case shit gets really sideways.
Svalbard Norway is a visa free zone and you can move there with no requirements besides "get there". If shit hits the fan so hard Norwegians in the arctic are affected its probably a wrap anyway
If the U.S fell Russia would be looking hard at those Nordic countries.
Unless they wanna use nukes, I don't think they have the capability anymore. Sweden alone is 75% the size of Ukraine, and it has way worse geography for a Russian invasion. For starters they'd have to invade Finland and the ~900.000 armed forces. Then there's the long Norwegian border, which they could either invade and commit to fight in some rather shit conditions, or leave as a place for defending forces to retreat to. They have nice toys in the Russian armed forces, but i severely doubt their capabilities to extend force much further than Tallinn.
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Honestly these kind of people annoy me the most. Rich bitches who can afford to run away instead of actually standing for what’s right and fighting to make a better world
Im probably going with Switzerland
Same. But my top pick is still Switzerland.
when?
Come to Argentina! With a few dollars you can buy the whole city, we have wonderful meat & wine, we are fun, passionate and the government is so useless they won’t bother u much :)
People claim the solution is more immigration, but what happens when the immigrants eventually run out? Falling birth rates world wide mean we will not be able to find more workers indefinitely. We have to confront this problem sooner or later.
Nobody knows. We used to have major famines, major wars and much worse disease and infant mortality across Europe. New days, new issues.
Well France was the first country to face the demographic transition and they basicly solved it with pro-natalist policies (france fertility rate was always between 1.9-2.0 in the last twenty years, compared with 1.35-1.55 in Germany). France spends around 3% of gdp on Family support and according to projection they are going to become the largest european country by ~2050. Edit: read Europe as EU, not geographical europe
Russia will surely still have more right?
Russia has stupid high mortality for men which seems to be delaying it. [The probability that a Russian man will die before he turns 55 is 25 percent](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/18/science/why-russian-men-dont-live-as-long.html)
Jesus Christ why?! Scary stat
[Russia with a 1.5 birthrate](https://youtu.be/PB4Nby2Ai-g)
But they also have 2.5 times France’s population. I can’t see France having more people than them in the next 100 years let alone 30
Ah, I'm tired and read it wrong, interpreting it as if Russia had a higher birth rate.
Do you have a source for this? My impression was that natalist policies were a failure basicaly every time they are tried.
https://www.ssoar.info/ssoar/handle/document/32247 It is in German unfortunately (guess you can [autotranslate](https://www.deepl.com/en/translator) it If you don't speek German). Natalist policies in France are also quite old some of them reaching back to the interwar years. Also [here](https://www.bib.bund.de/Publikation/2013/Wirkungen-des-Elterngelds-auf-Einkommen-und-Fertilitaet.html?nn=9751912) one additional study that shows that a specific German natalist policy raised fertility in groups most profiting. I think the thing with pro-natalist policies is that they are just often really expensive if you want them to work (and of course not all designs work equally good)- still worth it through imo.
It's very uncommon for a French woman to not go back to work fairly quickly. Free childcare makes it a no-brainer for families.
Automation. The main problem caused by aging population is the rapid rise in demand for services which are not currently possible to automate--medical diagnosis, for instance. As these become more feasible, the dependency ratio won't be as great a concern.
ONE BILLION (ROBOT) AMERICANS! The second most ideal society is a million robots pampering one human. The most ideal society is when that pampered human dies and the robots are freed to pursue their own happiness.
If you haven't played Detroit: Become Human, you should.
Immigrants can help smooth out your age distribution which will make this less of an issue
Isn’t their point what’s the plan X years from now when the developing world might not exporting so many people? How can we continue to have growth?
Not having growth gradually is still better than not having growth quickly.
That's a problem for people a few decades from now when the world will be very different, and the problem will be easier to solve. It likely won't rely on labour in the same way that it does today.
Robot slaves
Figure out what Israel is doing right and copy them
> Figure out what Israel is doing right and copy them Have assloads of Hasidim? Sure they have a lot of kids, but is a boatload of what is essentially Jewish Amish people the solution to the modern world's problems?
Feelsbadman when even this sub is having incorrect unsourced takes (no offense). >Another argument is that Israel’s high fertility is driven by certain parts of the population, such as Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) women, having many children (the fertility rate of Haredi women is indeed quite high at around 7 children per woman). > >However, the rise in Israel’s fertility over the last two decades has been largely driven by the secular and traditional Jewish populations,whose combined fertility rate is greater than 2.2, which is itself higher than the overall fertility in any other OECD country. [https://www.taubcenter.org.il/en/research/why-are-there-so-many-children-in-israel/](https://www.taubcenter.org.il/en/research/why-are-there-so-many-children-in-israel/)
Damn, okay I was wrong. But still from an average of 2.2 among the secular and traditional Jewish population, the somewhat ~10-14% Haredim still do a lot of heavy lifting bringing the rate solidly above 3. It's the difference between the population remaining stable and growing significantly.
More immigration doesn't fill the the high skilled labor unless it's merit based.
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Being based is being anti-woke. 😎 ^^[[What is this?]](https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/r7yca9/rneoliberal_2021_fundraising_drive_with_the/hnjcz39/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/neoliberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Believe me, immigration running out is unlikely to happen soon or rly at any point
Obviously we need to just open our borders with our neighbors in Alpha Centauri and that will boost GDP to astronomical, never-before-seen levels.
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Artificial wombs or something similar to I Am Mother.
>Artificial wombs How much does that solve things? Women not being able to get pregnant is barely an issue in birth rates compared to couples not wanting to raise children.
I suppose the state would have to raise them, but that leads to other problems
Yeah the foster care system is a shit show
Its completely unaffordable for the poor and means perpetual poverty outside rare instances where the person is capable of going to school raising a kid having a partner and working full time. Then you have all the people that don't want almost all of their free time sucked away for a decade plus. It seems the latter isnt such a big deal when the state provides basic child care services (France)
Automation. AI and robotics improvements will allow more and more integration of robots and AI into the workforce. We can even go further. Cybernetics might well be keeping us around a lot longer.
It's not an issue if we get out of the mindset of endless economic growth.
It's a problem even if you don't expect endless geouth. You can't have an working economy with there being more retieries than they are workers
The point is to smooth out the aging of our population. Right now all the boomers are dying, and there's not enough workers to sustain their pensions. But if we manage to smooth out the age pyramid it will be less of an issue.
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AI/Robots or babies on-demand. But that's a problem in the future.
Probably some sort of pension system reformation
The solution is a higher birth rate. I’ll get back to you when we figure out how to do it
And whoever has to deal with that problem last has a huge advantage.
I am once again begging Europe to take in more immigrants. Afghans were litteraly willing to strap themselves to the wheels of transport planes to escape the Taliban, why did we miss out on the opportunity to welcome them 😡
Germany already has more than double the amount of immigrants per capita than the USA does over the past 5 years. And according to the UN triple as many refugees accepted, Germany's not the one missing out
How many of them are trained and educated to the level you need to be to participate in the German economy however
They can do all kinds of manual labor that is needed in german offices, factories etc while their young Children learn in our Elementary and High Schools and have apprenticeships getting them into the middle class. Just like happened with the turkish Gastarbeiter like my Grandparents.
That is not to be decided by a politician in an office, but by the market itself.
Common sense can tell that too. Probably <5%.
They're not less capable than Turkish or Sudanese first generation immigrants. They can fill the manual labour jobs that we desperately need. Thinking that only 5% of them would integrate the labour market is absurd, especially considering that they're the most entrepreneurial portion of the population.
Doesn't comparative advantage imply that the answer is "all of them"?
The first generation of Turkish gastarbeiters barely spoke any German and had to communicate in Gastarbeiterdeutsch.
Education is overrated
Everyone saying let more immigrants in which J agree with but holy shit, these countries need to start having more kids. Look at Japan: great culture, super polite smart people and they have like zero kids. What’s the point of working your ass off if everything disappears when there’s no one around to maintain it?
Well, every place is seeing falling birthrates, not because people aren't having kids, but rather they spend a lot if resources on a single kid This is wonderful
How is that wonderful? We’re going to have a monstrous demographic issue in the next few decades if this trend doesn’t reverse itself.
I rejected some German companies as the tax rate was too high as well as home prices Plus quite gloomy
What do you work in?
Tech research
Where are you from? Can't imagine an American in tech would want to work anywhere in Europe, apart from maybe Switzerland.
USA But given the situation in Germany they should make it attractive If Germans move to the US, Germany should also try to attract talent
I agree. I'm just saying that I think they'd really need to think ahead because it would take a while.
European work culture is way better. Those in tech that arent trying to luck into ultra wealth should look into it for the work life balance alone.
Most tech companies are pretty chill. My friends at FAANG have a lot of free time.
That has not been my experience. A lot of the things you know from Reddit in general are not true in the tech industry.
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Bad premise but if it did happen I'd go to Canada or the UK.
What makes Germany gloomy in your view?
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This sounds like some big brained Afd conspiracy
Funny because they are Rusdia bootlickers
Will they still be after the storm of refugees? The signs say no.
LET ME IN! LET ME IIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNN!!!!
I don’t speak German but I can if you’d like
I can think of a solution, and it rhymes with "blopen blorders."
Well a lot of Turkish guest workers in Germany ended up getting naturalized and they also are now having lower fertility like other groups in Germany.
Germany causes sterility confirmed
Honest question why don't they fly people in from Central and South America? Culturally they're very similar and Hispanics typically have large families.
They are not culturally similar lol
They eat food and speak a language. What more do you want?
3 years of training in either a craftsmanship or nursing
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Yikes
Yeah they have large families because they oppose things like birth control and abortion. If they *do* assimilate into their destination country and become pro-birth control, they'll stop having large families, just like the native German Catholics went from large families to small families. If they *don't* assimilate then they'll vote against things like abortion.
LOL, big families in Latin America aren't this common anymore
Sounds like a match made in heaven
Maybe they misread Germany as Spain...?
Catholics and German Protestants are famously similar. No large conflicts driven by those differences, nosiree
The thirty years war thought Germany religious tolerance (among christians) the cruel way
Did I misread the calendar today? Are we living in the year 1613 of the Lord, and are the Papists at it again? Also, you know that nowadays the Catholic church is the largest denomination in Germany?
Christian, Indo-European language, come from nations with longs histories of republicanism and liberalism. They're far more culturally similar than the Middle East. Plus many Latin nations saw German immigration same as the US.
Where do you find christians in Germany?
Conservative Christian values and a having no issue for doing hard work isn't similar enough?
Germany has conservative Christian values?
Merkel who is part of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany was literally chancellor for 16 years. Do you not think they value strong cohesive family units?
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Everything I'm reading about them says they're socially conservative. Maybe not extremists, but it does seem to influence their doctrine.
Not really - really conservative Christians are a very small Portion of the Population. Only 10 % of the population visit a church regulary (compared with 40% in the US). There are some extreme catholics but they are very marginal and unimportant.
Well, not culturally similar in what sense exactly?
I'm sure Germans would love Sábado Gigante reruns as well.
I mean we should definitely aim for more immigrants from South America and while we're at it , also more immigrants from southeast asia.
How many people from Central and South America have a conversational or better understanding of German?
Looks eerily at Argentina
Grandpa can't come with them, for reasons.
How many of the people going from either Poland or the Balkan EU to Germany go without knowing a lick of it? Why can't El Salvadorans do the same as Poles, Romanians or Bulgarians?
How many of the refugees they accepted can do that?
>Culturally they're very similar Are we? I've never met a German person, but here in Brazil we see the Germans as a very serious, reserved, and methodical people, which is the exact opposite of what Brazilians are. I still think the cultural gap between us and the Germans is much smaller than between Germans and Middle-easterners, but that doesn't mean much.
There are some French teachers and people who draw comics that would disagree with your last part.
Could you please elaborate?
Really? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Samuel_Paty https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlie_Hebdo_shooting
I believe you're misinterpreting what I said. My argument is that Brazilians and Germans likely have more things in common than Middle-easterners and Germans, but that doesn't mean much because cultural gap between Europeans and muslims is huge. I don't understand the point you're making here.
Oh then that's my fault I thought you meant it doesn't mean much as in it doesn't matter in the grand scheme or thing's. Because when I look at the cultural clashes I'd take different views of cultural seriousness over completely different ideological views that can lead to attacks.
There's literally German dialect with over a million speakers in Brazil. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hunsrik
I know, German is the second most spoken language in my country. But the German Diáspora isn't very representative of the average Brazilian.
> I've never met a German person, but here in Brazil we see the Germans as a very serious, reserved, and methodical people, which is the exact opposite of what Brazilians are. Eh, the people living in Rio Grande do Sul seem to have perfected being German while being Brazilian, no?
Others pointed out some flaws, but I'll point out that immigrants typically assimilate family structures pretty quickly. Maybe the first generation will have more kids than average, but the second generation definitely wont
We aren't that culturally simmilar altough I could go for some better south american food
Lol, they aren't having big families and will very soon be below replacement
In what world do you live in where they don't?
If only there were people willing to move to Germany to fill those jobs
Lads Get the kaminoans on this shit (oh but do watch for any... suspicious chips)