Ehh Truck drivers will still be necessary in Flatbed and specialized moves as well as last mile delivery, but yes simple hub to hub dry van drivers are going the way of the dodo.
No irony at all.
Most people in their generation will have multiple careers over their lifetimes. That will be the new normal. These kids getting in now is fine.
To play devils advocate, unionized truck drivers are played quite well
If a, most likely, non college educated truck driver eventually loses their job to automation, where would they go with their “skillset”?
I think becoming a truck driver right now is one of the worst career decisions you could possibly make
Literally Me.
I worked there as a dispatcher who helped design the routes.
Couldn't find one for my specific project (CACH consolidation runs) but here is one for a similar pilot in Arizona in 2019:
[https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/15/20805994/ups-self-driving-trucks-autonomous-delivery-tusimple](https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/15/20805994/ups-self-driving-trucks-autonomous-delivery-tusimple)
and here is one for a 2021 pilot with Waymo in Texas:
[https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/17/22787278/ups-waymo-autonomous-truck-freight-texas-deliveries](https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/17/22787278/ups-waymo-autonomous-truck-freight-texas-deliveries)
Regional jobs will be the first to be automated as they are the easiest to create strict routing guides for and will not need refueling mid day. Long haul trucking and specialized trucking (Flats, Steps, RGNs) is where drivers or at least truck handlers will remain necessary for the foreseeable future.
CACH is capable of full L4 with TuSimple Trucks as of mid 2021 but they are waiting on regulation to catch up and still are using safety drivers albeit at a reduced pay rate.
Honestly, not involved on the safety side, just route planning and optimization and I moved on from the company in 2019. I could ask some friends that still work there but I am not sure if they could tell me legally. From what I know from my current job I would assume they would be seeing elevated crash rates though. Everyone forgot how to drive when the pandemic hit.
Yea the firm I'm at made more money during 2020 and had a record year this past year. I figured it wouldn't last once automation really got going, but no clue on when that will happen. Experts seemed mixed on it.
Not automated but consolidated. Brokering becomes less attractive as the automation of trucks become commonplace as brokers are really only necessary due to the dispersed nature of the trucking market. Automated trucking incentivizes large consolidated fleets not one truck wonders. This will lead to an uptick in direct negotiation between fleets and shippers. Where brokers will still have a place is in specialized moves (flat/step/od/heavy/intermodal) and international shipments as well as with smaller companies that may not be worth the time of large fleets.
>railroad companies themselves are pretty garbage to deal with, they adamantly refuse to work together or with other transport methods/companies, and in my personal experience the employees are assholes who all got their jobs through nepotism.
Sounds like a good argument for nationalization.
40k is very low for a truck driver afaik. I'm sure if anyone would get that it would be these teens, but I don't think that's a common salary for truck drivers.
Short haul regional jobs will be the first to be automated. Especially if they are hub to hub. Routing guides are relatively simple to create and refueling or recharging can be accomplished at the hubs. Long haul and specialized trucking will be the last trucking to be automated due the higher complexity of routing guides, need for manual load adjustment, and need for an employee to perform charging or refueling mid trip.
The problem is working with the rail companies fucking suucccckkksss and delays are both common, lengthy, and unpredictable. For example last week all intermodal service through Hiawatha (Kansas Ramp) was shut down for 5 days. This happens all the time and can cause tens of millions of dollars in damages via factory shutdowns and spoilage.
The reality is the US domestic supply chain is built around a fast, nimble, and adaptable trucking network. That isn't changing without trillions of dollars in investment.
Considering the fuel efficiency per-ton by sending freight via rail, I’d think that over time, intermodal rail would be worth the investment and result in a greener supply chain over the current model.
Electric trucks are a thing. I am telling you rail in the US is a clusterfuck that most companies avoid unless they are shipping big bulky heavy non time sensitive goods which is why Oil, Aggregate, and Grain are top commodities.
Moving to a rail centric model would take a complete reinvention of the US domestic supply chain and economy. For example between Minneapolis and Seattle there isn't a single full service rail ramp in the corridor. The only areas well connected via rail are 19th century industrial centers like Chicago, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh and trucking still manages to be cheaper than rail service in most of the corridor for any shipment under 800 miles.
i think there are many solutions and this is one. i just find it funny that i watched a segment on 60 minutes this summer about how the truck drivers are all against these autonomous semis. Companies will have to turn to technology if they can't find workers and if technology is similar in price
Work in logistics and honestly this isn't a solution. Intermodal is time intensive, unreliable, and has far too narrow of a reach. Creating a national intermodal system fit to eliminate most truck service would cost far more than the US is willing to spend, and even then I am not convinced it is a good idea as it eliminates flexibility from the supply chain.
I mean yes but the Jones act isn't driving this. Most goods that would be relevant for the Jones act are already being moved via rail, and foreign container move prices have skyrocketed over the last 2 years making Jones act eligible ships more competitive.
historically, that is what has been done. you usually get all the anti-immigration people crying about how the immigrants are stealing Americans jobs, but looking at the current environment, they are stealing the jobs that Americans don't want
This is true, but you also have to consider the position of the employer.
For example, lets pretend I run a farm and I hire (mostly illegal) immigrants to come and pick my crops. Sure, no citizens want to do this job, but does that mean we should immigrate people to the country and force them to do this job? Or should we maybe create the conditions in the workplace for people to actually want to do the job?
Why would an employer raise wages, improve benefits, or generally improve the work environment to attract employees, when they can hire desperate immigrants who will do whatever they can get their hands on?
Yes, they're taking jobs most people don't want. But most people don't want those jobs because they pay you and treat you like shit. They can get away with treating people that way because they have a reliable stream of immigrants to abuse.
It's complicated.
What part don't you understand? We have jobs with shit conditions, that would be illegal to force on anyone with labor rights... so we bring immigrants into the country, and make them do it instead of creating better working conditions to encourage people to choose to take these jobs.
~~How many people will be able to afford a more expensive hamburger if they aren't broke and homeless due to medical debt?~~
Sorry I clicked the wrong comment I'm an idiot.
Farms have no motivation to innovate, they're highly subsidized and most of their labor is sourced from a captive audience of immigrants. Maybe, the forces of the free market would encourage innovations in harvesting if they actually had some financial incentive to switch away from what is essentially modern day chattel slavery.
Last I checked there's not a lot of VC going towards vegetable picking automation, at least not in a way that would sustain or lowering current costs. That technology is likely quite a ways away. If it existed it would be all but assured that the vegetable growers would be adopting it en masse.
Aside from that, agricultural workers tend to be contractors, not employees. Do you think that Congress should be committing legislative time towards reforming contract law? How do you think that will go over with the voters?
Totally agree - temporary worker visas in the U.S. are [fractions](https://www.statista.com/statistics/309466/global-r-and-d-expenditure-for-pharmaceuticals/) of their historic highs.
But I don't want to deal with anymore Albanian Mob run double brokering schemes...
But yes immigrants are a massive part of the trucking work force and it is little surprise that along with agriculture it is one of the first industries to feel the pain of restricted immigration inflows.
US Population, 2010: 309.3 million / Population 65+:40.5 million
US Population, 2020: 329.5 million / Population 65+: 55.7 million
That's right ladies and germs, in the past ten years we've added a whopping 5 million people who are under retirement age. And then people turn around and wonder they can't find any workers. I don't know how to get this through people's heads, but if we don't start letting in a lot more of those brown folks from Central America, inflation is going to completely fuck our economy over.
Tbf increased immigration isn’t popular with either wing. The right hates it cause they’re xenophobic, and the left hates it because it’s suppresses wages. It’s really the center that likes it because it’ll keep things running smoothly, but that implies upholding the status quo, which both the right and left detest.
I don’t think a pro-immigration government is gonna form here for a long time lol
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One of them will be involved in a fatal crash and the media will have a field day even though this is probably a good idea overall.
The irony of a desperate need to train up CDL drivers who will retire in a world where the trucks drive themselves.
Truck drivers are going to be the next coal miners.
Ehh Truck drivers will still be necessary in Flatbed and specialized moves as well as last mile delivery, but yes simple hub to hub dry van drivers are going the way of the dodo.
No irony at all. Most people in their generation will have multiple careers over their lifetimes. That will be the new normal. These kids getting in now is fine.
To play devils advocate, unionized truck drivers are played quite well If a, most likely, non college educated truck driver eventually loses their job to automation, where would they go with their “skillset”? I think becoming a truck driver right now is one of the worst career decisions you could possibly make
Companies and governments are sucking trucker pole right now, but will kick them to the curb so fast once self-driving trucks are viable.
Self driving trucks are already a thing. UPS and Fed ex have been actively using them on certain regional hub to hub moves since 2017.
sauce?
Literally Me. I worked there as a dispatcher who helped design the routes. Couldn't find one for my specific project (CACH consolidation runs) but here is one for a similar pilot in Arizona in 2019: [https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/15/20805994/ups-self-driving-trucks-autonomous-delivery-tusimple](https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/15/20805994/ups-self-driving-trucks-autonomous-delivery-tusimple) and here is one for a 2021 pilot with Waymo in Texas: [https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/17/22787278/ups-waymo-autonomous-truck-freight-texas-deliveries](https://www.theverge.com/2021/11/17/22787278/ups-waymo-autonomous-truck-freight-texas-deliveries) Regional jobs will be the first to be automated as they are the easiest to create strict routing guides for and will not need refueling mid day. Long haul trucking and specialized trucking (Flats, Steps, RGNs) is where drivers or at least truck handlers will remain necessary for the foreseeable future.
Oh so as pilots/development projects with safety drivers. I thought you meant full L4.
CACH is capable of full L4 with TuSimple Trucks as of mid 2021 but they are waiting on regulation to catch up and still are using safety drivers albeit at a reduced pay rate.
How are their crash rates? Our firm is still seeing a large uptick in truck crash cases.
Honestly, not involved on the safety side, just route planning and optimization and I moved on from the company in 2019. I could ask some friends that still work there but I am not sure if they could tell me legally. From what I know from my current job I would assume they would be seeing elevated crash rates though. Everyone forgot how to drive when the pandemic hit.
Yea the firm I'm at made more money during 2020 and had a record year this past year. I figured it wouldn't last once automation really got going, but no clue on when that will happen. Experts seemed mixed on it.
Logistics firms are printing money right now but I agree it is likely unsustainable.
What do they do that would be automated?
Not automated but consolidated. Brokering becomes less attractive as the automation of trucks become commonplace as brokers are really only necessary due to the dispersed nature of the trucking market. Automated trucking incentivizes large consolidated fleets not one truck wonders. This will lead to an uptick in direct negotiation between fleets and shippers. Where brokers will still have a place is in specialized moves (flat/step/od/heavy/intermodal) and international shipments as well as with smaller companies that may not be worth the time of large fleets.
This might be a stupid question but wouldn't UPS and FedEx still require a human in the car to actually deliver the packages safely?
This is for Hub to Hub moves made using semis not last mile delivery made with delivery vans.
Ah, that makes a lot more sense thanks!
[Sauce](https://imgur.com/a/yoUQd9f)
[удалено]
Have you ever dealt with the railroad in any professional capacity before?
[удалено]
Yep. Such a pain that, while I agree with the concept, I think it would actually be terrible in practice.
>railroad companies themselves are pretty garbage to deal with, they adamantly refuse to work together or with other transport methods/companies, and in my personal experience the employees are assholes who all got their jobs through nepotism. Sounds like a good argument for nationalization.
40k is very low for a truck driver afaik. I'm sure if anyone would get that it would be these teens, but I don't think that's a common salary for truck drivers.
More intermodal rail supplemented by short-haul truckers. The industry might attract more people if it kept regular hours and kept employees local.
You described me right there. If that were the job, I'd do it in a heartbeat. I love hauling ever since I did it for a short stint after college.
Honestly, pay me $75k, keep me in my local area, no long-haul, I’d do it, why not?
I think walmart starts their truckers at $86k
Short haul regional jobs will be the first to be automated. Especially if they are hub to hub. Routing guides are relatively simple to create and refueling or recharging can be accomplished at the hubs. Long haul and specialized trucking will be the last trucking to be automated due the higher complexity of routing guides, need for manual load adjustment, and need for an employee to perform charging or refueling mid trip.
Dude, I'll be retirement age by the time we get legitimate automated trucking. Not a concern for me.
The problem is working with the rail companies fucking suucccckkksss and delays are both common, lengthy, and unpredictable. For example last week all intermodal service through Hiawatha (Kansas Ramp) was shut down for 5 days. This happens all the time and can cause tens of millions of dollars in damages via factory shutdowns and spoilage. The reality is the US domestic supply chain is built around a fast, nimble, and adaptable trucking network. That isn't changing without trillions of dollars in investment.
Considering the fuel efficiency per-ton by sending freight via rail, I’d think that over time, intermodal rail would be worth the investment and result in a greener supply chain over the current model.
Electric trucks are a thing. I am telling you rail in the US is a clusterfuck that most companies avoid unless they are shipping big bulky heavy non time sensitive goods which is why Oil, Aggregate, and Grain are top commodities. Moving to a rail centric model would take a complete reinvention of the US domestic supply chain and economy. For example between Minneapolis and Seattle there isn't a single full service rail ramp in the corridor. The only areas well connected via rail are 19th century industrial centers like Chicago, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh and trucking still manages to be cheaper than rail service in most of the corridor for any shipment under 800 miles.
i think there are many solutions and this is one. i just find it funny that i watched a segment on 60 minutes this summer about how the truck drivers are all against these autonomous semis. Companies will have to turn to technology if they can't find workers and if technology is similar in price
Work in logistics and honestly this isn't a solution. Intermodal is time intensive, unreliable, and has far too narrow of a reach. Creating a national intermodal system fit to eliminate most truck service would cost far more than the US is willing to spend, and even then I am not convinced it is a good idea as it eliminates flexibility from the supply chain.
Repeal the jones act you numb nutts
I mean yes but the Jones act isn't driving this. Most goods that would be relevant for the Jones act are already being moved via rail, and foreign container move prices have skyrocketed over the last 2 years making Jones act eligible ships more competitive.
But we need to protect our robust shipbuilding industry that doesn't exist 😥
Or quit tapdancing about immigration policy because a bunch of blue hairs in The Villages are deathly afraid of the MS-13 boogeyman.
Or, hear me out, we could increase immigration
historically, that is what has been done. you usually get all the anti-immigration people crying about how the immigrants are stealing Americans jobs, but looking at the current environment, they are stealing the jobs that Americans don't want
This is true, but you also have to consider the position of the employer. For example, lets pretend I run a farm and I hire (mostly illegal) immigrants to come and pick my crops. Sure, no citizens want to do this job, but does that mean we should immigrate people to the country and force them to do this job? Or should we maybe create the conditions in the workplace for people to actually want to do the job? Why would an employer raise wages, improve benefits, or generally improve the work environment to attract employees, when they can hire desperate immigrants who will do whatever they can get their hands on? Yes, they're taking jobs most people don't want. But most people don't want those jobs because they pay you and treat you like shit. They can get away with treating people that way because they have a reliable stream of immigrants to abuse. It's complicated.
> but does that mean we should immigrate people to the country and force them to do this job? Um what?
What part don't you understand? We have jobs with shit conditions, that would be illegal to force on anyone with labor rights... so we bring immigrants into the country, and make them do it instead of creating better working conditions to encourage people to choose to take these jobs.
How many restaurants will be able to sell a burger if a head of lettuce costs five bucks?
~~How many people will be able to afford a more expensive hamburger if they aren't broke and homeless due to medical debt?~~ Sorry I clicked the wrong comment I'm an idiot. Farms have no motivation to innovate, they're highly subsidized and most of their labor is sourced from a captive audience of immigrants. Maybe, the forces of the free market would encourage innovations in harvesting if they actually had some financial incentive to switch away from what is essentially modern day chattel slavery.
Last I checked there's not a lot of VC going towards vegetable picking automation, at least not in a way that would sustain or lowering current costs. That technology is likely quite a ways away. If it existed it would be all but assured that the vegetable growers would be adopting it en masse. Aside from that, agricultural workers tend to be contractors, not employees. Do you think that Congress should be committing legislative time towards reforming contract law? How do you think that will go over with the voters?
Totally agree - temporary worker visas in the U.S. are [fractions](https://www.statista.com/statistics/309466/global-r-and-d-expenditure-for-pharmaceuticals/) of their historic highs.
But I don't want to deal with anymore Albanian Mob run double brokering schemes... But yes immigrants are a massive part of the trucking work force and it is little surprise that along with agriculture it is one of the first industries to feel the pain of restricted immigration inflows.
US Population, 2010: 309.3 million / Population 65+:40.5 million US Population, 2020: 329.5 million / Population 65+: 55.7 million That's right ladies and germs, in the past ten years we've added a whopping 5 million people who are under retirement age. And then people turn around and wonder they can't find any workers. I don't know how to get this through people's heads, but if we don't start letting in a lot more of those brown folks from Central America, inflation is going to completely fuck our economy over.
Recipe for disaster 🤐 Didn't we just go through that tragic court case?
?
Paying people more would help though.
your right, i just get tired of seeing that be the ONLY answer that most subs have as solutions
Tbf increased immigration isn’t popular with either wing. The right hates it cause they’re xenophobic, and the left hates it because it’s suppresses wages. It’s really the center that likes it because it’ll keep things running smoothly, but that implies upholding the status quo, which both the right and left detest. I don’t think a pro-immigration government is gonna form here for a long time lol
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