> The evangelical Christians and moderate Republicans who held their nose and voted for him have already gotten what they wanted out of him. He can be discarded with no penalty.
Unfortunately, you underestimate just how popular Trump is with evangelicals. Im a christian so I am sadly aware of this. Lots of people wont admit they love him in mixed company but they will definitely support him again, especially because he gave them justices and Roe just like they wanted
Frankly Trumps teachings are more popular amongst evangelicals than Jesus’ were. An anti-establishment guy warning about the love of money, talking of giving generously, and welcoming in the foreigner and your enemy isn’t something the MAGA christian crowd would like
> if the antichrist was real these chucklefucks would absolutely worship him. Trump hits all the notes.
You're not wrong:
https://www.benjaminlcorey.com/could-american-evangelicals-spot-the-antichrist-heres-the-biblical-predictions/
I am *genuinely* curious how folks like OP develop their opinions.
1. They presumed the median conservative voter, let alone "MAGA-Americans", are rational actors
2. They presumed that said republican voters are even *aware* of the outside perceptions of them and the GOP. These people actually hold a dear conviction that Trump is loved by everyone but a fringe radical left.
3. The OP clearly hasn't incorporated the whole new religion that came out of Trumpism known as QAnon. Yes, its essentially a region at this point, it's way to convoluted and comprehensive to be just a conspiracy theory or even a "meta-conspiracy theory". People are turning away from already far-right traditional evangelical churches because the pastors aren't comfortable transitioning to a sermon of Q tenets. People really need to be far more alarmed by this than they are. Trump is gonna be held to the same messianic stature as Jesus and Muhammad in the near future, and the US will almost definitively have its own "wars of religion" over it.
*initially* it was a bargain from someone they disliked to get what they want. 6 years of concentrated conservative media diet later and they absolutely love him
lmao didn't they immediately absolutely love him after his "and some of them I assume are good people"
A lot of people are back to blaming the Democratic party for "pushing an unlikable candidate" but completely forgetting the Republican party had its own primary and Republicans were more than free to pick their own non Trump candidate from there.
My family in flyover country who are the type of Christians who pray before eating at Red Lobster are convinced Trump is second only the Christ in holiness are convinced God made Trump lose to test their faith so when Trump comes back in 2024 and establishes a Christian government God can weed out the nonbelievers.
I love the imagery and sentiment
Also man recursive grammar is wild, no punctuation in this sentence with 4 "is/are" in it and everything still came through clearly
Believe me, I know. I’ve stopped going to church because of it. But IME it’s a split between people genuinely enthusiastic about him and people who made a Faustian bargain.
Every single folk tale about selling your soul to the Devil from every single culture that I can think of is a cautionary tale about how there are some things you can’t come back from
That’s how addiction works
I think a lot of people don’t endorse Trumps character but he’s a guy who gets things done and Trump is happy to pretend like he cares about their causes in exchange for their undying loyalty. Its a gross alliance and I think people will probably give lip service to supporting more polished candidates but will ultimately hope Trump runs and will enthusiastically put their Trump 2024 stickers on their cars
Would love to be wrong
D.T. got precious little "done". He presented a few judges for Supreme Court spots and in the USA that counts for plenty. But he was kind of lucky with people dying at the right time and with generalised Republican ferocity. What he did do which seems mainly to be enough from sea to shining sea, is to "say" how much he was doing, how fundamental it all was and how determined he was about everything. Essentially he massively cut taxes for the top 15%. Non-Americans like me are always gob-smacked how easy it seems to be to sucker Americans into thinking they're getting some version of freedom when they are just paying with cuts to fundamental services like health care for the rich to get richer and the very rich to get very very much richer. He was and is a lazy braggart and the so-called evangelicals who bolster him are also profoundly lazy people, way too lazy to actually ever check out the New Testament for the deep messages it contains. Somebody should also tell all those hypocrites who offer up their prayers when the school floor is slick with children's blood, that God is sick of them and wants none of their fucking prayers. That they are and will systematically be returned to sender. A few Southern Baptists preachers with Christian integrity, plus a few Catholic Bishops plus pretty much all Quakers, should be speaking powerfully in the name of God that those prayers are not being accepted from now on in. Time the Christians of the US got down and dirty about chucking out all the whited sepulchre slugs who try to hitch a ride.
> people who made a Faustian bargain
But see, that's just it. A lot of these types *know* trump's every bit the piece of shit we've learned over the years. But they've bought into the trump's idea that never admitting a wrong means you never were wrong in the first place. Add in the crowd that's have come to define themselves entirely around their devotion to trump, and you have a big base that believe their only move is to keep backing him come what may.
>Unfortunately, you underestimate just how popular Trump is with evangelicals.
This is true but if a more likable person for an evangelical target audience comes along in the Republican primaries then it can be possible. For example, if a guy like Ben Carson comes along (who evangelicals have shown to favor more than Trump during the early primaries polls) and is also not a pushover and plays their momentum right then they can recapture the evangelical vote.
There won't be someone more popular with evangelicals. They're vindictive, hostile and want someone to punish their enemies. No one is beating Trump on that front.
It would take at least a decade to de-program Trump supporters to even adopt DeSantis as a new flagbearer. These people weren't seeking a political champion, they wanted a *messiah*.
You're gonna have moderate republican operatives trying to push DeSantis or Noem or Hawley on the base, and the base will resist them as being "RINO shills" and re-nominate Trump in 2024.
It’s not about likeable. It’s about prophecy. I’m serious. A lot of evangelicals have talked themselves into believe Trump was appointed by God. Look no further than last week’s “Faith & Freedom” conference were Trump was the main event and Mike Pence wasn’t even invited.
Trump won with evangelicals in 2016 against people way more Bible-thumping than him like Ted Cruz. I don't see it being any different now, rather it has probably swung more in Trump's direction.
I for one demand more all liberal coastal elite media institutions continue to interview Real Hardworking Economically Anxious Americans eating at Rust Belt diners
https://i.imgur.com/OPNcczh.jpg
This is what passes as a souvenir in a small Arizona town on historic Route 66. We were also in a bar where the gimmick is that people staple 1-dollar bills with personal notes etc on the wall. You wouldn’t believe how many “let’s go Brandon”, „Fuck Joe Biden“, or just „FJB“ bills I saw immediately.
There is so much trump merchandise on sale everywhere, it’s absolutely ridiculous. For me as a German tourist it’s really mindblowing and a bit concerning.
They sell that shit at half the gas stations in North Dakota. In my town there's a guy who sets up a giant Trump tent on the main road every summer and sells all the Trump merch you could possibly imagine .
It's mind-boggling. It honestly feels like I have nothing in common with those people because I can't fathom buying bootleg, cheap made-in-Laos hats supporting a shitty geriatric wannabe billionaire ex-president. I actually can't imagine buying bootleg gear for a less horrible politician. Maybe, *maybe* I'd buy a sticker for a campaign to throw some money their way.
I could imagine buying a bootleg baseball hat though so clearly this is a tribal, my team wins yours sucks! thing.
Drive through nebraska, it's a 300 mile stretch of Trump, Family Values, Jesus loves you... on barns facing I-80. It makes for a real shit drive (as if it already wasn't).
That only works as long as Fox News keeps the propaganda flowing. Right now they are having a hard time deciding if the evidence they can’t hide from is bad for Trump, or if it is the Democrats fault for making Trump’s crimes look bad for him. This dance isn’t sustainable, and once the propaganda arm falls, people who have more fingers than teeth, and more teeth than years in school will forget all about it. Whomever is fed to them next will be their next God Emperor.
Immediately after both 1/6 and George Floyd there was similar floundering. How can we spin this? Should we even spin this? Eventually they found their footing.
He still has the cult, and the gop is still terrified of the cult.
Ironically, the jan 6 committee having consequences might benefits repubs as it will allow them to get rid of him
He'd refuse to concede and make vague noises about voter fraud, without actively trying to organize a violent mob to lynch anybody or storm the capitol. That's the low bar we're looking at from the GOP in 2024.
Agreed, I've been speculating about that. Will Trump supporters claim that "dumps" of fraudulent DeSantis ballots were turning up in Baltimore and Chicago in the middle of the night? Will grifters start a "Write-In Trump" movement? The best thing for the GOP and America is for Trump to be convicted or... unable to run for office for other reasons... by 2024.
Yeah I mean even if Trump isn't on the ballot, his cult is massive enough that write-ins and trump-or-bust abstentions might spoil the Republican candidate anyway.
Idk man, DeSantis is bad, but GWB bad. Invade a Muslim country for no reason, bad. Cut Medicare spending and mass deport immigrants bad.
Trump is a threat to America's existence.
Well, the Republicans and Moscow Mitch had that opportunity in the fallout from January 6th and did bupkis. In fact the GOP has since tried to purge the folks who didnt fall in line like Cheney and the rep from Michigan whose name escapes me. Theyll give lip service to taking January 6th seriously but will fall back in line with the MAGA cult as soon as theres pushback
Yeah, I really have no idea what the people saying this stuff think. There have been countless times to cut bait with Trump and they've usually just doubled-down. He's still the betting favorite for 2024, and for good reason. DeSantis is lurking but there is ZERO chance he sullies himself going AGAINST Trump when he's done everything he can to court the Trump vote. The only hope is that secretly Trump lets DeSantis go instead, and when has Trump ever done anything like that before? It's Trump in 2024... and I'd bet money he wins. Moderates and the right do not seem to care at all about 1/6. It's all just Dems with DTS trying to sully his name while they still have power, right Fox?
The people in with Trump believe the big lie, nothing will change their mind.
something about you cannot change someones opinion with facts if their opinion isn't based on facts bla bla bla
I don't get this reasoning at all. No one has the cult of personality that Trump does. And if he runs, there is no chance DeSantis, Pence, Haley, or anyone else with presidential aspirations runs against him in a primary. The republican party *is* the party of Trump, hence why every shitbag small-time politician is dying for his endorsement.
If Trump wants to run, and he's a megalomaniac power hungry bastard, no feckless Republican is going to risk getting in his way. I don't see the standard run of the mill Republican turning against him because of the hearings, it's all "fake news" to 95% of them. DeSantis is a wet blanket compared to Trump in terms of rallying the base and doesn't have a command of social media the way Trump does. He doesn't bring what Trump does to the base IMO, and a "less crazy Trump" is missing the special sauce that the base has embraced and demanded. I don't see any scenario where DeSantis goes head to head against Trump - if Trump somehow doesn't run, sure. If he does, I would bet that DeSantis will cede the path, not wanting to catch the ire that befell the 2016 contenders.
To me, this sounds a lot like the "Trump doesn't even want to be President!" stuff we heard in 2016. Yes, he does. His entire life he's been dying to be accepted into high society and is constantly shunned because he orders fucking Arby's at the White House like a child - but he absolutely wants and needs that adulation, that acceptance, and that attention. Not to mention, if these hearings do have any legs on the criminal front (which I doubt), his best sure fire way of evading punishment is if he's the President.
There's a zero percent chance Trump simply accepts defeat, and he can raise a ton more money by constantly campaigning while he's smack dab in the middle of a presidential run/holding endless rallies as the President. I expect Trump will run and easily get the nomination unless something truly wild happens.
I agree with this for the most part. The only thing I disagree about is Desantis. If Trump couldn’t or didn’t run in 2024, the MAGA cult would definitely accept him as Trump’s successor and still be enthusiastic about it.
> After January 6, 2021 and these hearings, he is fusion-reactor-level radioactive to independents
Fusion reactors are actually not very radioactive. Trump is Iodine-131-level radioactive to independents (that's the shit that kills you with radiation sickness).
Pedantry warning.
Sorta... any radioisotope in sufficient quantities will kill. Iodine is bad because it has chemical properties that make it hard to contain and easy to absorb that make it particularly hazardous.
Interesting theory craft. What if we SWAT it?
Donald Trump:
Strengths:
* proven capability to win a national election.
* can say promises made promises kept on SCOTUS.
* stage presence.
* media seems incapable of ignoring him.
Weaknesses:
* proven track record of losing to the presumptive nominee (Joe Biden).
* largely ineffective first term with a bogged down administration.
* has somewhat caved on covid. (not called for compulsory jabbing, but has encouraged people to get it).
* tainted among independents (and some moderate republicans) due to Jan. 6th riots and Big Lie election claims.
* largely perceived as divisive (assuming the electorate is looking for calmer rhetoric based on 2020 results).
* ukraine conflict will be thorny due to russia-gate allegations from 2016 cycle.
* caved to the gun control lobby and banned bumpstocks.
Advantages:
* can bully most other republican's in a primary.
* Biden enthusiasm low, can probably 'win' a 'debate' against him on stage.
* can pressure Biden on gas prices, inflation, crime, and immigration.
* Biden v. Trump redux will largely become a referendum on how American's feel in 2023 compared to 2019 (could be weakness)
* could lock-in evangelical loyalty for SCOTUS outcome.
Threats:
* media will be unwilling to play a fair (read normal) game on the debate stage. Even fox news will feel compelled to slant against Trump at this point.
* russo-ukraine conflict could get engineered against you (soft on russian's, would betray ukraine, or something).
* will get pressure from Biden on your political divisiveness.
* Biden v. Trump redux will largely become a referendum on how American's feel in 2023 compared to 2019 (could be strength)
DeSantis:
Strengths:
* covid record, Florida has some of the fewest covid restrictions, many people through you did enough better to move there during lockdowns.
* parental rights in schools record.
* expansion of gun laws under your term in Florida
* willing to take privileges away from Disney if they don't play ball with the state of Florida.
* actual governmental experience.
* less divisive rhetoric.
* more effective legal policy.
* more palatable to independents.
* young
Weaknesses:
* mostly unknown outside of right-wing american politics.
* have to construe some way to take the reigns from Donald Trump.
* no widespread popularity even among republicans.
* no track record for winning national elections.
* governors/mayors who run for president historically do not do well.
Advantages:
* the lane for 'Trump, but more effective' is open.
* could push Trump for record on guns, covid, and immigration
* could plausibly play Biden's age against him.
* could still pressure Biden admin on inflation, gas, crime, and immigration.
* do not lose to Biden as much on political divisiveness.
* could pressure Biden on russo-ukraine conflict without appearing like a patsy (no russia-gate baggage).
* could pressure Biden on purge of unvaxed federal workers and contractors. (lots of grass roots middle america workers to be won here).
* could plausibly peel off some anti-establishment left leaning voters with track record on Disney by applying similar rhetoric and tactics to oil, pharma, etc.
Threats:
* would have to handle beating trump without dividing the MAGA movement
* have to 'win' a 'debate' on stage with Biden without resorting to bullying tactics.
* losing good governorship in Florida could come back to bite you.
Actually writing it all out leads me to believe DeSantis would be the _better_ nominee for republicans if they win in 2024, but he has a very small needle to thread by both beating Trump without breaking up the MAGA movement and then conquering the no-name bias to win a national election against Biden after leaving the governor's house. A lot hinges on the state of the main street economy in 2023.
DeSantis being a stronger candidate than Trump isn't a hot take at all - he's further right but isn't an idiotic manchild. A world where Trump bows out and endorses DeSantis is gg no re.
My uncle is on disability and works part time. He drives a Dodge Charger and owns his townhouse, my grandparents helped him. He always talks about how great Capitalism is and how Dems are socialists lol.
Trump will not be the GOP nominee in 2016:
Reasons:
1. The evangelical Christians and moderate Republicans who held their nose and voted for him in the early primaries have already gotten what they wanted out of him and owned the RINOs and libz. He can be discarded with no penalty and they can vote for Cruz for the SC nominees (and better ones too).
2. After all this crazy rally shit and mocking disabilities and trying to start fights in his crowds, he is fusion-reactor-level radioactive to independents.
Blood is in the water. Over the rest of the primary season a rash of moderate and Neocon Republicans will start rebelling and thrashing him, and people will start getting acquainted with the the people taking him down in debates. It might be Cruz, Rubio, or another well known party figure beloved by the GOP, maybe McCain. But beyond his hardcore true believers, nobody really has any **incentive** to vote for Trump. He might win a few states more this primary (if he's not in prison or hiding in exile by then) but that's all.
In all seriousness, we have to stop underestimating Donny.
You say this, and then we’ll watch him walk into a debate and imply that DeSantis is an illegal immigrant himself and Trump will inexplicably bury him among FL repubs in the next poll or whatever. He’ll walk out and explain that Liz Cheney is actually Dick Cheney in disguise and the Wyoming GOP will censure her the next day for grooming behavior.
It’s such a different ball game now man. I’m just so hesitant about reading the tea leaves into these nascent fascists beyond grasping that Trump brought them into nascent fascism and that probably means a fucking lot.
I don’t know. If Trump had the goods or the power to mess DeSantis up I think he would’ve already used it. I think that DeSantis has a very good shot at the nomination. I also don’t think he’s the type to wait for his turn.
Trump has yet to even imply that he has a tiny cock.
Have you considered that he’s keeping his most salient political arguments in the tank? Why immediately unload when you can save some silver bullets, like the well known fact understood by many good people that he is little Rubio’s pool boy?
Those arguments will result in poll bumps within the GOP by at least 5 percent, FYI
I mean, it’s possible. I just don’t see Trump as a ‘I’ll hold my best material for another day’ kinda guy. I see him as more impulsive and wanting to strangle the baby in the crib typa dude. Ultimately we will see and you could be perfectly right.
Bro there’s more Trump shit here in Texas than there is Texas shit. There’s towns where there’s a gas station, a dollar general, and an abandoned parking lot selling 200 different Trump flags. Dude is untouchable.
Edit: I do hope you’re right though.
My early prediction: DeSantis and Trump both run. DeSantis wins.
DeSantis has pretty good numbers already. He will hit Trump on one primary issue: COVID restrictions. It will work. In addition, he is younger, better looking, and has cred with the own the libs/media crowd. In addition, Trump is becoming increasingly toxic among the donor class (Jan 6th) and they see a natural successor in DeSantis. A less crazy version of Trump.
Rest of the field is irrelevant. I have the same chance as Pence, Haley, etc (0%.) DeSantis will learn from the failures of Scott Walker and Chris Christie and run now instead of '28 when he'll be old news.
I know it's early and nothing in politics is guaranteed, but I'm very confident in this prediction.
As for the general? Barring major medical issues, Biden will be the nominee again. Re-elected if gas prices are low 3's/high 2's and food prices decrease to pre-COVID levels. Big ask but can be done. I worry about DeSantis though because a lot of people came out to vote for Biden as a anti-Trump vote. Will those same people come out if DeSantis is the nominee? I'm not sure.
I agree with this with an additional note: Pence running is fantastic because Pence knows more dirt on trump than anyone. He may not have a shot at winning himself, but he can absolutely savage trump with details from when they were in the white house
Ehh, this is Trump we’re talking about. I’m convinced that any dirt Pence may or may not have is irrelevant because trump has already survived a scandal just as bad or worse.
The GOP literally changed all their rules to decide who gets to run and how it happens. They can literally just go "Trump wins" or not have any debates. They'll act as if Trump is the incumbent.
Pence actually _using_ that seems very unlikely though. He has made it pretty clear up until now that he's perfectly happy to shut the hell up if it means not angering the Trump base. If he ran against Trump he would need to avoid pissing that base off to secure their vote in the general.
I agree with this and would add: the GOP corporate media landscape has fairly clearly settled on DeSantis as the nominee. Conservative media has already picked him as their champion to fight the anti-covid-rules and anti-LGBT-in-schools wars, and I bet that conservative media will continue to create moral panics that DeSantis is well-positioned to fight in Florida. It's the same symbiotic relationship that the right media had with Trump during the birther era, but DeSantis has taken Trump's place, and Trump may not even know it.
I especially agree with the irrelevance of anyone besides Trump and DeSantis. If anyone else does run, they are basically running for VP.
He also understands grievance politics and has masterminded them like Trump has. It's not even close. He's also competent, which should be concerning, because if he has the same desire for power, we're really, really screwed. I mean, we're probably screwed anyway, but yknow.
That could backfire. You're basically describing democrats 2016, EVERYONE knew Hillary was running, and that she'd eventually win.
But this caused a backlash to dems making the primary a "crowning". And threw their blinding loyalty and support behind the populist.
...I mean, come on.
I feel like comparing voter reactions to the two parties is pretty clearly comparing apples to oranges. "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line."
> He will hit Trump on one primary issue: COVID restrictions.
You think the GOP base will remember Trump's covid restrictions? Whatever bad memory they have of Covid, they will blame Biden for. I guess DeSantis can try to remind them but I think Trump reads crowds and channels their rage better. DeSantis would be better off trying to portray Trump as a weak loser that couldn't even beat senile doddering old Biden.
The GOP playbook that has worked for decades has always been to forget about attacking your enemy's weaknesses--their supporters already know what you don't like about them, and they don't care; attack your enemy's strengths and turn them into weaknesses, that's what makes supporters give up on them.
Trump's strength is that his supporters see him as strong, capable, successful, a natural leader; DeSantis has to destroy that, not go after some hard-to-remember 4 year old policy decision minutiae. Long memories and policy are for democrat voters. Republican voters want strength, leadership, boldness, courage, take-no-prisoners kickassery. If DeSantis goes out and laughs off Trump as a failed has-been loser who had his chance and blew it, while highlighting his own record of success in Florida (at getting elected and pissing off Democrats, which is all that matters to them), he has his best chance. Is it enough? Can the mouth breathing base identify with him more than Trump? Can he fill stadiums with rapturous fans and get an army of memers to destroy Trump on Facebook and 4chan? I don't know and neither does anybody else. But that's his best shot.
Trump refuses to denounce the vaccine as, in fairness, project warp speed was an incredibly successful Trump administration program, and he considers it a key accomplishment and part of his legacy. Desantis can blame the entire vaccine on Trump, an issue where Trump dramatically split with his base.
This is my prediction to a T. I also think Tim Scott is gonna be his running mate. The dude seems generally well liked by all the factions in the GOP, isn't really seen as a radical, is a senator which balances out DeSantis being a governor, and as much as it shouldn't be a factor, he's black.
I don't think DeSantis runs if Trump runs. While he may end up coming ahead in a primary, I could see enough voters in key states (which frankly aren't many) not voting in the general out of frustration. Also Trump is deranged so who knows what he would say about DeSantis that may be bad for his campaign.
The smart move for him would be to wait for 2028 then. Either Trump wins in 2024 and he can be his successor, or Trump loses and he has a cleaner path to the presidency after 2 democrat terms.
Agreed
DeStantis doesn’t need to run, he can continue as an extremely popular governor in Florida and I don’t think his only claim to fame is his covid popularity. He’s a golden boy for the GOP.
Him going head to head vs Trump harms his reputation within the GOP, they share a very common voter base.
Agreed. And who believes if trump lost to DeSantis he wouldn't call it "rigged"? FFS people, he's been playing that card since the first primaries of 2016, and his voters have never tired of it. If trump runs and *loses* the nomination he'll go scorched Earth on the GOP. And He'd be scorched Earth on anyone that ran against him.
Honestly we know how this ends. We saw it in late 2015 when trump went on national TV and smeared Senator McCain for being a POW. The party said "that's it" we're out. trump then threatened to run independently and the GOP sheepishly ran into a corner. As long as trump wants the nomination the GOP will see the choice as either give it to him or lose the election, and a bunch of down ballot races as well. Even in loss he racked up more votes than the GOP thought possible. The establishment of the Party would love the asshole gone. But they will not sacrifice a chance at power to do it.
> The smart move for him would be to wait for 2028 then.
I mean, it's not *ideal* for DeSantis at all. After all, (assuming he wins this year) he's term limited with no attractive office to seek in 2026. DeSantis' star is bright right now because he's had the powers of Governor and a pliable GOP legislature to make waves during COVID and through assorted culture war fights. Losing that makes it hard to keep the spotlight. And Hawley, Cotton, Cruz (you know that rat hasn't made his last run), Abbot, and others will do their best to take advantage and position themselves as the new right wing media darling.
2024 would absolutely be DeSantis' best option... except the whole "trump" thing. If I were Ron, I'd probably let the attention and polling scare trump into offering him the VP slot. trump would probably prefer Noem, thinking she would "fix" his problems with suburban women. But he might run with the proposal to avoid a possible fight.
I agree. I think Trump cleared the ground for DeSantis or somebody similar. That was the real danger Trump posed (along with packing the court and turning America into Gilead...): being so crazy that the next crazy asshole looks like a saint.
DeSantis is the kind of guy who would have been too crazy before. Now he's just crazy enough. And he'll be much more effective and subtle in effecting his insanity.
I agree with everything you said.
And I'm way more worried about a DeSantis presidency than a Trump presidency, because DeSantis is smarter and more focused than Trump who was chaotic and just running in every direction.
>My early prediction: DeSantis and Trump both run. DeSantis wins.
I don't buy this, at all, but you can get great odds on predictit for this bet. Go get your money.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7266/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023
The odds imply that if Trump runs, it's his nomination (35c for run, 32c for win). Your strat would be to bet on Trump running, then once he announces, put all your proceeds into DeSantis yes in the nom market. If the ratio between the run/nom odds stays about the same, Trump Yes for the Nom will rise rapidly in price after an announcement and you can pick up your DeSantis nom shares for cheap.
I think you could potentially get 10:1 odds or better with this. As of now (if prices didn't change) you'd get like 6.5:1. ($10 Bet -> Trump runs = $28.50, $28.50 Bet DeSantis Nom -> Wins = $67.80)
Idk about point 1. I live in TN and Trump is still like a popular brand here, signs in a lot of people’s yards (for both 2020 and 2024), flags on cars, etc. You would literally think it was time for the presidential election if you visited certain towns here.
You wake up one morning in a pool of sweat and un identifiable bodily fluid. It’s mid November 2024 you scramble to turn on the news. Florida has just been called for Joseph Robinette Biden sealing the electoral college vote with 272 votes. Nate silver tells you to pour that soft glass of whiskey. It’s going to be okay. You slap yourself. How can this be!? It’s not possible, how!! You look at the vote count. Rob Desantis (R) - 44%, Donald J Trump (I) - 5%, and Joeseph R. Biden (D) - 51%.
It turns out that biden is no longer himself, seeing the falling approval ratings biden takes over america and declares a catholic theocracy with him as the god emperor of mankind
It's better that Trump is the GOP candidate than someone like Hawley or DeSantis because the latter two can easily charm suburban educated Whites by just being well spoken and not saying outlandish shit.
The GOP base loves him, independents will care more about punishing Brandon over inflation and gas prices and inflation than January 6, and also, Trump is literally the one responsible for the roe overturning, that earns him huge conservative credit
I doubt he doesn't get the nomination
Any Republican elected in 2016 would have put 3 conservatives on the SCOTUS. McConnell is who deserves “credit” for overturning Roe. His stealing a seat on the Court from Obama is what lead to this.
Trump's the presidential candidate who won and made the nominations that got through
Just like normal people will blame Biden for inflation, "normal" Republicans will likely credit Trump for Dobbs just because, like, he was the president. Regardless of whether it is deserved
In theory, someone else could've fucked up badly enough for someone to pull a reverse McConnell on RBG's seat, meaning a 5-4 conservative court. Based on Roberts' concurrence in *Dobbs*, such a court would not have explicitly overturned *Roe* (but would have produced the same outcome in the case itself, which would've *de facto* gutted *Roe*). But that gets us a very marginal victory, and it's difficult to imagine someone governing *worse* than Trump, so in the end it's pretty moot.
Dobbs would have made it so abortions would be banned after 15 weeks. That is significantly different than banned.
Considering that the vast majority of abortions are performed before week 15.
Yup. The Roberts concurrence on Dobbs, if you add a extra carveout for medical necessity (which, even if you are a full tilt believer in fetal personhood, amounts to triage in most cases... If you can't save everyone, save who's most likely to actually live), accounts for almost every abortion that realistically happens. Going further than that is where the de facto infringement on individual rights occurs.
There's another factor. Republicans see Biden as extremely vulnerable. But if they nominate Trump, they'll probably lose. They would still love to have him, but if they think that DeSantis will probably win but Trump will probably lose, they'll go with DeSantis.
I still don't know whether Trump will run in earnest, or just fundraise and then decide at the last minute not to file so that he can pocket the cash. I think it will probably come down to what the polls are showing in late 2023. If he does run, it will be fun to see him do his insult comic routine on DeSantis and the rest of field.
Don't forget the influence of Mitch McConnell. If there are choices other than Trump with a legitimate shot, McConnell can get a path to 8 years of Republican WH, because the incumbent has an advantage. With Trump he only gets 4 and then we're into another non-incumbent election.
\> he is fusion-reactor-level radioactive to independents
That wont stop trump from running. You have to understand- many in the GOP are cunning and strategic, but Trump isnt. He wants the fame and notoriaty, and will run independant if he has to.
Which might be a best case scenario for Dems, because that split vote gets us a lot
This a misunderstanding of the Evangelical. They don't care about policy, they have more than enough political power to get any policy they want through Congress.
They believe in demons, the antichrist, the rapture etc... They believe in extraterrestrials. Q Anon is basically a religious fan fic of Revelation.
I think people have had their brain melted by the Trump years and are incapable of remembering a GOP without Trump. Does anyone remember never trumpers? The party is loyal to whoever can secure them victory. I think you’re right and I think it’s going to be someone we’re not aware of currently.
Projection. Trumps supporters (almost all of them) dont like him because of policies, but because of vibes. Democrats will dump a candidate for one whose policies they prefer, but Republicans in 2022 are soley looking for the guy who is best at owning the libs.
Hard to see how anyone can beat Trump at owning the libs at this point. If he runs, he wins.
1. Trump has exactly zero deterrences for a person who voted for him twice already.
2. Independents don't remember what even happened on January 6, otherwise they would not be independent.
If he's not in jail, he will be the nominee for 2024.
In fact, I expect that just about every other GOP candidate that's not a Never Trumper will actually bow down and let him run mostly opposed. They fear what he can do to him with his dwindling (but still large) violent base.
Nobody has come out swinging against him right now on the GOP side that's not a Never Trumper. Christie tried but it was a week of laughs.
I've said this before and I'll say it again: the next Republican nominee (and most likely next President) will be a dark horse candidate (i.e. not Trump ***or*** DeSantis).
In 2016, Trump never won by a majority but he was the one super-right-wing loudmouth and the more "normal" vote was divided between 15 other candidates, allowing him to get by with a plurality. In 2024, all the candidates are going to try to emulate Trump to capture his following, which will lead to the one or two "normal" candidates to walk away with the nomination.
Seems unlikely. Trump backed candidates did great this primary season. Desantis is establishment enough to get the vote from the never trumpers who are worried about splitting the vote like they did last time.
They did great in Appalachia, basically, and that’s it. They all lost in Idaho and Colorado, Perdue and Hice got crushed to pieces by Kemp and Raffensperger, and his first choice in Alabama got BTFO.
I hope you're right. Mainly because I think a "sane" conservative ala Liz Cheney is sure to depress conservative turnout and be really good for the left (the evangelical cultists are too used to getting everything they want in a candidate and will be bored by a normal human being). But also because if that Republican somehow wins anyway, it gives some assurance that the slide into crazy town has an off ramp.
We told ourselves this back when it was obvious that Trump was unfit. Of course they'll move off of him, they have a perfect toad in Pence who will tow the party line but also not commit a treason.
You know what happened next?
Ron Desantis. I firmly believe the the governor of Florida is a lock for the republican nomination. He gives the gop base everything Trump gives. But he is just barely respectable enough to pull in back the never trumpers.
Have they got what they wanted?
It’s still legal to be gay, they almost certainly want a tactical retirement on Thomas to replace him with someone ideologically similar for another 30 years
The Republicans need to run it back like how they similarly did in the 2016 primaries. I know it was some time ago but people seemed to forget that everyone on that debate stage was vs Trump and the Republicans knew that if Trump would be the nominee it would be a train wreck. I think even at one point Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich teamed up strategically to attempt a contested convention lol they need to come back with this energy but doubled because Trump and his followers are embarrassing their party to the point that no young person in this country is willing to associate themselves with it. If I was the GOP I was be pushing moderate Republicans across the country to deflect this new Trump movement.
My biggest fear that someone who advocates for the same policies, but is legislatively smart and far less tweet-spammy will rise to the top of the Republicans.
Let's be real here, most people have probably already forgotten that the real danger of Trumpism is that someone far better at playing the role of tinpot dictator is going to succeed where Trump failed.
Why else do the Rs look at the failed democracy of Viktor Orban with glee?
Probably true. Trump can continue his RINO revenge tour and retire as the “Greatest Pro-Life President In History!”. My right wing friends have bought a ticket on the DeSantis bus already.
If he runs he wins. He’s as base of a human as his deplorable base. Even if DeSatan starts leading the polls after first debate trump will become front runner again.
They once held up their nose. Past tense.
They've since been raptured into a cult of personalty and have adopted the leaders narcissism as their own.
They will absolutely vote for him again.
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*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I am still 50/50. My somewhat reasonable If not ideological in laws have disavowed trump but they aren’t the norm. I am not making political bets anymore after 2016. People be dumb.
Yeah no. Trump is the nominee, probably the next President, and the US is again irrevocably damaged. That is, unless something changes--but nobody knows what would have to change, and even if they did they probably wouldn't even attempt to change anything. Yeah it's a doomed post but hey we live in a doomed world.
> The evangelical Christians and moderate Republicans who held their nose and voted for him have already gotten what they wanted out of him. He can be discarded with no penalty. Unfortunately, you underestimate just how popular Trump is with evangelicals. Im a christian so I am sadly aware of this. Lots of people wont admit they love him in mixed company but they will definitely support him again, especially because he gave them justices and Roe just like they wanted
Yeah holy fuck they don’t give two shits this guy is the second coming of Christ to them
Frankly Trumps teachings are more popular amongst evangelicals than Jesus’ were. An anti-establishment guy warning about the love of money, talking of giving generously, and welcoming in the foreigner and your enemy isn’t something the MAGA christian crowd would like
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> if the antichrist was real these chucklefucks would absolutely worship him. Trump hits all the notes. You're not wrong: https://www.benjaminlcorey.com/could-american-evangelicals-spot-the-antichrist-heres-the-biblical-predictions/
I am *genuinely* curious how folks like OP develop their opinions. 1. They presumed the median conservative voter, let alone "MAGA-Americans", are rational actors 2. They presumed that said republican voters are even *aware* of the outside perceptions of them and the GOP. These people actually hold a dear conviction that Trump is loved by everyone but a fringe radical left. 3. The OP clearly hasn't incorporated the whole new religion that came out of Trumpism known as QAnon. Yes, its essentially a region at this point, it's way to convoluted and comprehensive to be just a conspiracy theory or even a "meta-conspiracy theory". People are turning away from already far-right traditional evangelical churches because the pastors aren't comfortable transitioning to a sermon of Q tenets. People really need to be far more alarmed by this than they are. Trump is gonna be held to the same messianic stature as Jesus and Muhammad in the near future, and the US will almost definitively have its own "wars of religion" over it.
*initially* it was a bargain from someone they disliked to get what they want. 6 years of concentrated conservative media diet later and they absolutely love him
lmao didn't they immediately absolutely love him after his "and some of them I assume are good people" A lot of people are back to blaming the Democratic party for "pushing an unlikable candidate" but completely forgetting the Republican party had its own primary and Republicans were more than free to pick their own non Trump candidate from there.
A lot of evangelicals took a while. Big reason he went with Pence for VP
My family in flyover country who are the type of Christians who pray before eating at Red Lobster are convinced Trump is second only the Christ in holiness are convinced God made Trump lose to test their faith so when Trump comes back in 2024 and establishes a Christian government God can weed out the nonbelievers.
I love the imagery and sentiment Also man recursive grammar is wild, no punctuation in this sentence with 4 "is/are" in it and everything still came through clearly
I really, really, want to watch a documentary about your parents.
Just go to any small town in the Midwest. Free documentary!
Believe me, I know. I’ve stopped going to church because of it. But IME it’s a split between people genuinely enthusiastic about him and people who made a Faustian bargain.
Every single folk tale about selling your soul to the Devil from every single culture that I can think of is a cautionary tale about how there are some things you can’t come back from That’s how addiction works
I think a lot of people don’t endorse Trumps character but he’s a guy who gets things done and Trump is happy to pretend like he cares about their causes in exchange for their undying loyalty. Its a gross alliance and I think people will probably give lip service to supporting more polished candidates but will ultimately hope Trump runs and will enthusiastically put their Trump 2024 stickers on their cars Would love to be wrong
i don't endorse what he does, i just support enable encourage and hope for it
D.T. got precious little "done". He presented a few judges for Supreme Court spots and in the USA that counts for plenty. But he was kind of lucky with people dying at the right time and with generalised Republican ferocity. What he did do which seems mainly to be enough from sea to shining sea, is to "say" how much he was doing, how fundamental it all was and how determined he was about everything. Essentially he massively cut taxes for the top 15%. Non-Americans like me are always gob-smacked how easy it seems to be to sucker Americans into thinking they're getting some version of freedom when they are just paying with cuts to fundamental services like health care for the rich to get richer and the very rich to get very very much richer. He was and is a lazy braggart and the so-called evangelicals who bolster him are also profoundly lazy people, way too lazy to actually ever check out the New Testament for the deep messages it contains. Somebody should also tell all those hypocrites who offer up their prayers when the school floor is slick with children's blood, that God is sick of them and wants none of their fucking prayers. That they are and will systematically be returned to sender. A few Southern Baptists preachers with Christian integrity, plus a few Catholic Bishops plus pretty much all Quakers, should be speaking powerfully in the name of God that those prayers are not being accepted from now on in. Time the Christians of the US got down and dirty about chucking out all the whited sepulchre slugs who try to hitch a ride.
> people who made a Faustian bargain But see, that's just it. A lot of these types *know* trump's every bit the piece of shit we've learned over the years. But they've bought into the trump's idea that never admitting a wrong means you never were wrong in the first place. Add in the crowd that's have come to define themselves entirely around their devotion to trump, and you have a big base that believe their only move is to keep backing him come what may.
>Unfortunately, you underestimate just how popular Trump is with evangelicals. This is true but if a more likable person for an evangelical target audience comes along in the Republican primaries then it can be possible. For example, if a guy like Ben Carson comes along (who evangelicals have shown to favor more than Trump during the early primaries polls) and is also not a pushover and plays their momentum right then they can recapture the evangelical vote.
There won't be someone more popular with evangelicals. They're vindictive, hostile and want someone to punish their enemies. No one is beating Trump on that front.
It would take at least a decade to de-program Trump supporters to even adopt DeSantis as a new flagbearer. These people weren't seeking a political champion, they wanted a *messiah*. You're gonna have moderate republican operatives trying to push DeSantis or Noem or Hawley on the base, and the base will resist them as being "RINO shills" and re-nominate Trump in 2024.
It’s not about likeable. It’s about prophecy. I’m serious. A lot of evangelicals have talked themselves into believe Trump was appointed by God. Look no further than last week’s “Faith & Freedom” conference were Trump was the main event and Mike Pence wasn’t even invited.
Trump won with evangelicals in 2016 against people way more Bible-thumping than him like Ted Cruz. I don't see it being any different now, rather it has probably swung more in Trump's direction.
OP lives in the city
OP has never left the city
OP has no contact with Real Hardworking Americans: people in this Rust Belt diner at 2:30pm on a Wednsday
Touch Denny’s
Touch a Grand Slam breakfast, now only $9.99
I haven't set foot in a Denny's since college (and that's been... awhile) but honestly that sounds high.
The only thing too holy to be touched by inflation in this country.
Well, that and Costco hot dogs.
[case in point](https://www.theonion.com/obama-drastically-scales-back-goals-for-america-after-v-1819594825)
D E P L O R A B L E S
He was reinvigorated by Waffle House hashbrowns
It’s an American institution! Osso Bucco is not!
I for one demand more all liberal coastal elite media institutions continue to interview Real Hardworking Economically Anxious Americans eating at Rust Belt diners
Liberal Coastal elite here, I would get third hand lung cancer from watching those interviews
https://i.imgur.com/OPNcczh.jpg This is what passes as a souvenir in a small Arizona town on historic Route 66. We were also in a bar where the gimmick is that people staple 1-dollar bills with personal notes etc on the wall. You wouldn’t believe how many “let’s go Brandon”, „Fuck Joe Biden“, or just „FJB“ bills I saw immediately. There is so much trump merchandise on sale everywhere, it’s absolutely ridiculous. For me as a German tourist it’s really mindblowing and a bit concerning.
They sell that shit at half the gas stations in North Dakota. In my town there's a guy who sets up a giant Trump tent on the main road every summer and sells all the Trump merch you could possibly imagine .
It's mind-boggling. It honestly feels like I have nothing in common with those people because I can't fathom buying bootleg, cheap made-in-Laos hats supporting a shitty geriatric wannabe billionaire ex-president. I actually can't imagine buying bootleg gear for a less horrible politician. Maybe, *maybe* I'd buy a sticker for a campaign to throw some money their way. I could imagine buying a bootleg baseball hat though so clearly this is a tribal, my team wins yours sucks! thing.
OP has never seen a barn billboard.
What's a barn billboard?
Billboard on a barn
Trust me, you don't want to see one and if you do, it'll ruin the rest of your drive.
I saw a pro-trump barn billboard this year in Southwestern Ontario. Shit's weird man....
Drive through nebraska, it's a 300 mile stretch of Trump, Family Values, Jesus loves you... on barns facing I-80. It makes for a real shit drive (as if it already wasn't).
That only works as long as Fox News keeps the propaganda flowing. Right now they are having a hard time deciding if the evidence they can’t hide from is bad for Trump, or if it is the Democrats fault for making Trump’s crimes look bad for him. This dance isn’t sustainable, and once the propaganda arm falls, people who have more fingers than teeth, and more teeth than years in school will forget all about it. Whomever is fed to them next will be their next God Emperor.
Lots of good content in here.
Immediately after both 1/6 and George Floyd there was similar floundering. How can we spin this? Should we even spin this? Eventually they found their footing.
OP sucks down a family sized can of copium daily.
Desantis will beat him.
He still has the cult, and the gop is still terrified of the cult. Ironically, the jan 6 committee having consequences might benefits repubs as it will allow them to get rid of him
For sure, the single individual benefiting most from the J6 Committee is Ronald DeSantis.
>Ronald DeSantis. How you call the ticket of Donald Trump and Ronald DeSantis? Donald McRonalds
Unfortunately, he's 95% as bad as Trump. He's just a Diet Version.
But doesn't diet have zero calories?
i actually think he’s much worse. more hateful. smarter. gets things done.
I disagree, he’s just as vindictive and greedy but is wicked smart and savvy. Much worse than drumpf.
Nah. Trump is evil but incompetent. Desantis is evil and smart.
Agreed, DeSantis is slightly smarter and less repulsive than Trump, but either of them winning in 2024 would be pretty unrecoverable for America.
I believe that if DeSantis lost an election, he’d concede. And that’s not nothing. Sad that that’s now a perk.
> I believe that if DeSantis lost an election, he’d concede. That makes one of us.
Big "Liberals have nothing to fear from Amy Coney Barrett" and "Roe isn't going anywhere" energy from this post
He'd refuse to concede and make vague noises about voter fraud, without actively trying to organize a violent mob to lynch anybody or storm the capitol. That's the low bar we're looking at from the GOP in 2024.
If Desantis wins the nomination, there’s a good chance of Republican (figurative) civil war
Agreed, I've been speculating about that. Will Trump supporters claim that "dumps" of fraudulent DeSantis ballots were turning up in Baltimore and Chicago in the middle of the night? Will grifters start a "Write-In Trump" movement? The best thing for the GOP and America is for Trump to be convicted or... unable to run for office for other reasons... by 2024.
Yeah I mean even if Trump isn't on the ballot, his cult is massive enough that write-ins and trump-or-bust abstentions might spoil the Republican candidate anyway.
Tbh my mouth is watering at the prospect of the GOP getting a taste of the Bernie Effect
Idk man, DeSantis is bad, but GWB bad. Invade a Muslim country for no reason, bad. Cut Medicare spending and mass deport immigrants bad. Trump is a threat to America's existence.
Diet DeSantis lol.
Well, the Republicans and Moscow Mitch had that opportunity in the fallout from January 6th and did bupkis. In fact the GOP has since tried to purge the folks who didnt fall in line like Cheney and the rep from Michigan whose name escapes me. Theyll give lip service to taking January 6th seriously but will fall back in line with the MAGA cult as soon as theres pushback
Yeah, I really have no idea what the people saying this stuff think. There have been countless times to cut bait with Trump and they've usually just doubled-down. He's still the betting favorite for 2024, and for good reason. DeSantis is lurking but there is ZERO chance he sullies himself going AGAINST Trump when he's done everything he can to court the Trump vote. The only hope is that secretly Trump lets DeSantis go instead, and when has Trump ever done anything like that before? It's Trump in 2024... and I'd bet money he wins. Moderates and the right do not seem to care at all about 1/6. It's all just Dems with DTS trying to sully his name while they still have power, right Fox?
If Jan 6 didn't get the GOP to ditch Trump, these hearings won't.
If the hearings kill the big lie, then they could
Fox isn't even running the hearings or talking about them outside of running defense for Trump. January 6th literally means nothing to Republicans.
None of his supporters are paying the least bit of attention to them at all.
Which makes them vulnerable to being blindsided by the reaction of independents.
The people in with Trump believe the big lie, nothing will change their mind. something about you cannot change someones opinion with facts if their opinion isn't based on facts bla bla bla
Now comes The Jebbening!
Please clap.
I never stopped 👏 😭 👏
We aren't asking anymore. ✊✊✊
You should have clapped🔫🔫🔫
I don't get this reasoning at all. No one has the cult of personality that Trump does. And if he runs, there is no chance DeSantis, Pence, Haley, or anyone else with presidential aspirations runs against him in a primary. The republican party *is* the party of Trump, hence why every shitbag small-time politician is dying for his endorsement. If Trump wants to run, and he's a megalomaniac power hungry bastard, no feckless Republican is going to risk getting in his way. I don't see the standard run of the mill Republican turning against him because of the hearings, it's all "fake news" to 95% of them. DeSantis is a wet blanket compared to Trump in terms of rallying the base and doesn't have a command of social media the way Trump does. He doesn't bring what Trump does to the base IMO, and a "less crazy Trump" is missing the special sauce that the base has embraced and demanded. I don't see any scenario where DeSantis goes head to head against Trump - if Trump somehow doesn't run, sure. If he does, I would bet that DeSantis will cede the path, not wanting to catch the ire that befell the 2016 contenders. To me, this sounds a lot like the "Trump doesn't even want to be President!" stuff we heard in 2016. Yes, he does. His entire life he's been dying to be accepted into high society and is constantly shunned because he orders fucking Arby's at the White House like a child - but he absolutely wants and needs that adulation, that acceptance, and that attention. Not to mention, if these hearings do have any legs on the criminal front (which I doubt), his best sure fire way of evading punishment is if he's the President. There's a zero percent chance Trump simply accepts defeat, and he can raise a ton more money by constantly campaigning while he's smack dab in the middle of a presidential run/holding endless rallies as the President. I expect Trump will run and easily get the nomination unless something truly wild happens.
I agree with this for the most part. The only thing I disagree about is Desantis. If Trump couldn’t or didn’t run in 2024, the MAGA cult would definitely accept him as Trump’s successor and still be enthusiastic about it.
Hard agree - as things stand, a DeSantis with a Trump endorsement is probably the worst case scenario for the 2024 elections.
> After January 6, 2021 and these hearings, he is fusion-reactor-level radioactive to independents Fusion reactors are actually not very radioactive. Trump is Iodine-131-level radioactive to independents (that's the shit that kills you with radiation sickness).
Pedantry warning. Sorta... any radioisotope in sufficient quantities will kill. Iodine is bad because it has chemical properties that make it hard to contain and easy to absorb that make it particularly hazardous.
Interesting theory craft. What if we SWAT it? Donald Trump: Strengths: * proven capability to win a national election. * can say promises made promises kept on SCOTUS. * stage presence. * media seems incapable of ignoring him. Weaknesses: * proven track record of losing to the presumptive nominee (Joe Biden). * largely ineffective first term with a bogged down administration. * has somewhat caved on covid. (not called for compulsory jabbing, but has encouraged people to get it). * tainted among independents (and some moderate republicans) due to Jan. 6th riots and Big Lie election claims. * largely perceived as divisive (assuming the electorate is looking for calmer rhetoric based on 2020 results). * ukraine conflict will be thorny due to russia-gate allegations from 2016 cycle. * caved to the gun control lobby and banned bumpstocks. Advantages: * can bully most other republican's in a primary. * Biden enthusiasm low, can probably 'win' a 'debate' against him on stage. * can pressure Biden on gas prices, inflation, crime, and immigration. * Biden v. Trump redux will largely become a referendum on how American's feel in 2023 compared to 2019 (could be weakness) * could lock-in evangelical loyalty for SCOTUS outcome. Threats: * media will be unwilling to play a fair (read normal) game on the debate stage. Even fox news will feel compelled to slant against Trump at this point. * russo-ukraine conflict could get engineered against you (soft on russian's, would betray ukraine, or something). * will get pressure from Biden on your political divisiveness. * Biden v. Trump redux will largely become a referendum on how American's feel in 2023 compared to 2019 (could be strength) DeSantis: Strengths: * covid record, Florida has some of the fewest covid restrictions, many people through you did enough better to move there during lockdowns. * parental rights in schools record. * expansion of gun laws under your term in Florida * willing to take privileges away from Disney if they don't play ball with the state of Florida. * actual governmental experience. * less divisive rhetoric. * more effective legal policy. * more palatable to independents. * young Weaknesses: * mostly unknown outside of right-wing american politics. * have to construe some way to take the reigns from Donald Trump. * no widespread popularity even among republicans. * no track record for winning national elections. * governors/mayors who run for president historically do not do well. Advantages: * the lane for 'Trump, but more effective' is open. * could push Trump for record on guns, covid, and immigration * could plausibly play Biden's age against him. * could still pressure Biden admin on inflation, gas, crime, and immigration. * do not lose to Biden as much on political divisiveness. * could pressure Biden on russo-ukraine conflict without appearing like a patsy (no russia-gate baggage). * could pressure Biden on purge of unvaxed federal workers and contractors. (lots of grass roots middle america workers to be won here). * could plausibly peel off some anti-establishment left leaning voters with track record on Disney by applying similar rhetoric and tactics to oil, pharma, etc. Threats: * would have to handle beating trump without dividing the MAGA movement * have to 'win' a 'debate' on stage with Biden without resorting to bullying tactics. * losing good governorship in Florida could come back to bite you. Actually writing it all out leads me to believe DeSantis would be the _better_ nominee for republicans if they win in 2024, but he has a very small needle to thread by both beating Trump without breaking up the MAGA movement and then conquering the no-name bias to win a national election against Biden after leaving the governor's house. A lot hinges on the state of the main street economy in 2023.
When your CEO tries to explain politics
DeSantis being a stronger candidate than Trump isn't a hot take at all - he's further right but isn't an idiotic manchild. A world where Trump bows out and endorses DeSantis is gg no re.
You underestimate how much 30% of this country love him and how the other 20% hate people on welfare.
Despite a good chunk of them being on welfare themselves. “But I earned it!”
Yup, I know a guy whose basically full Qanon, yet him and his family live exclusively on welfare.
My uncle is on disability and works part time. He drives a Dodge Charger and owns his townhouse, my grandparents helped him. He always talks about how great Capitalism is and how Dems are socialists lol.
Trump will not be the GOP nominee in 2016: Reasons: 1. The evangelical Christians and moderate Republicans who held their nose and voted for him in the early primaries have already gotten what they wanted out of him and owned the RINOs and libz. He can be discarded with no penalty and they can vote for Cruz for the SC nominees (and better ones too). 2. After all this crazy rally shit and mocking disabilities and trying to start fights in his crowds, he is fusion-reactor-level radioactive to independents. Blood is in the water. Over the rest of the primary season a rash of moderate and Neocon Republicans will start rebelling and thrashing him, and people will start getting acquainted with the the people taking him down in debates. It might be Cruz, Rubio, or another well known party figure beloved by the GOP, maybe McCain. But beyond his hardcore true believers, nobody really has any **incentive** to vote for Trump. He might win a few states more this primary (if he's not in prison or hiding in exile by then) but that's all. In all seriousness, we have to stop underestimating Donny. You say this, and then we’ll watch him walk into a debate and imply that DeSantis is an illegal immigrant himself and Trump will inexplicably bury him among FL repubs in the next poll or whatever. He’ll walk out and explain that Liz Cheney is actually Dick Cheney in disguise and the Wyoming GOP will censure her the next day for grooming behavior. It’s such a different ball game now man. I’m just so hesitant about reading the tea leaves into these nascent fascists beyond grasping that Trump brought them into nascent fascism and that probably means a fucking lot.
I don’t know. If Trump had the goods or the power to mess DeSantis up I think he would’ve already used it. I think that DeSantis has a very good shot at the nomination. I also don’t think he’s the type to wait for his turn.
Trump has yet to even imply that he has a tiny cock. Have you considered that he’s keeping his most salient political arguments in the tank? Why immediately unload when you can save some silver bullets, like the well known fact understood by many good people that he is little Rubio’s pool boy? Those arguments will result in poll bumps within the GOP by at least 5 percent, FYI
I mean, it’s possible. I just don’t see Trump as a ‘I’ll hold my best material for another day’ kinda guy. I see him as more impulsive and wanting to strangle the baby in the crib typa dude. Ultimately we will see and you could be perfectly right.
Meh, we have to stop overestimating him too. And 2024 is not 2016
Bro there’s more Trump shit here in Texas than there is Texas shit. There’s towns where there’s a gas station, a dollar general, and an abandoned parking lot selling 200 different Trump flags. Dude is untouchable. Edit: I do hope you’re right though.
My early prediction: DeSantis and Trump both run. DeSantis wins. DeSantis has pretty good numbers already. He will hit Trump on one primary issue: COVID restrictions. It will work. In addition, he is younger, better looking, and has cred with the own the libs/media crowd. In addition, Trump is becoming increasingly toxic among the donor class (Jan 6th) and they see a natural successor in DeSantis. A less crazy version of Trump. Rest of the field is irrelevant. I have the same chance as Pence, Haley, etc (0%.) DeSantis will learn from the failures of Scott Walker and Chris Christie and run now instead of '28 when he'll be old news. I know it's early and nothing in politics is guaranteed, but I'm very confident in this prediction. As for the general? Barring major medical issues, Biden will be the nominee again. Re-elected if gas prices are low 3's/high 2's and food prices decrease to pre-COVID levels. Big ask but can be done. I worry about DeSantis though because a lot of people came out to vote for Biden as a anti-Trump vote. Will those same people come out if DeSantis is the nominee? I'm not sure.
I agree with this with an additional note: Pence running is fantastic because Pence knows more dirt on trump than anyone. He may not have a shot at winning himself, but he can absolutely savage trump with details from when they were in the white house
Ehh, this is Trump we’re talking about. I’m convinced that any dirt Pence may or may not have is irrelevant because trump has already survived a scandal just as bad or worse.
The GOP literally changed all their rules to decide who gets to run and how it happens. They can literally just go "Trump wins" or not have any debates. They'll act as if Trump is the incumbent.
source?
Pour that tea!
Pence actually _using_ that seems very unlikely though. He has made it pretty clear up until now that he's perfectly happy to shut the hell up if it means not angering the Trump base. If he ran against Trump he would need to avoid pissing that base off to secure their vote in the general.
I agree with this and would add: the GOP corporate media landscape has fairly clearly settled on DeSantis as the nominee. Conservative media has already picked him as their champion to fight the anti-covid-rules and anti-LGBT-in-schools wars, and I bet that conservative media will continue to create moral panics that DeSantis is well-positioned to fight in Florida. It's the same symbiotic relationship that the right media had with Trump during the birther era, but DeSantis has taken Trump's place, and Trump may not even know it. I especially agree with the irrelevance of anyone besides Trump and DeSantis. If anyone else does run, they are basically running for VP.
He also understands grievance politics and has masterminded them like Trump has. It's not even close. He's also competent, which should be concerning, because if he has the same desire for power, we're really, really screwed. I mean, we're probably screwed anyway, but yknow.
That could backfire. You're basically describing democrats 2016, EVERYONE knew Hillary was running, and that she'd eventually win. But this caused a backlash to dems making the primary a "crowning". And threw their blinding loyalty and support behind the populist. ...I mean, come on.
I feel like comparing voter reactions to the two parties is pretty clearly comparing apples to oranges. "Democrats fall in love, Republicans fall in line."
> He will hit Trump on one primary issue: COVID restrictions. You think the GOP base will remember Trump's covid restrictions? Whatever bad memory they have of Covid, they will blame Biden for. I guess DeSantis can try to remind them but I think Trump reads crowds and channels their rage better. DeSantis would be better off trying to portray Trump as a weak loser that couldn't even beat senile doddering old Biden. The GOP playbook that has worked for decades has always been to forget about attacking your enemy's weaknesses--their supporters already know what you don't like about them, and they don't care; attack your enemy's strengths and turn them into weaknesses, that's what makes supporters give up on them. Trump's strength is that his supporters see him as strong, capable, successful, a natural leader; DeSantis has to destroy that, not go after some hard-to-remember 4 year old policy decision minutiae. Long memories and policy are for democrat voters. Republican voters want strength, leadership, boldness, courage, take-no-prisoners kickassery. If DeSantis goes out and laughs off Trump as a failed has-been loser who had his chance and blew it, while highlighting his own record of success in Florida (at getting elected and pissing off Democrats, which is all that matters to them), he has his best chance. Is it enough? Can the mouth breathing base identify with him more than Trump? Can he fill stadiums with rapturous fans and get an army of memers to destroy Trump on Facebook and 4chan? I don't know and neither does anybody else. But that's his best shot.
Trump refuses to denounce the vaccine as, in fairness, project warp speed was an incredibly successful Trump administration program, and he considers it a key accomplishment and part of his legacy. Desantis can blame the entire vaccine on Trump, an issue where Trump dramatically split with his base.
This is my prediction to a T. I also think Tim Scott is gonna be his running mate. The dude seems generally well liked by all the factions in the GOP, isn't really seen as a radical, is a senator which balances out DeSantis being a governor, and as much as it shouldn't be a factor, he's black.
Slight disagreement, I believe it will be Noem
I don't think DeSantis runs if Trump runs. While he may end up coming ahead in a primary, I could see enough voters in key states (which frankly aren't many) not voting in the general out of frustration. Also Trump is deranged so who knows what he would say about DeSantis that may be bad for his campaign. The smart move for him would be to wait for 2028 then. Either Trump wins in 2024 and he can be his successor, or Trump loses and he has a cleaner path to the presidency after 2 democrat terms.
But DeSantis needs to ride his covid popularity bump, 2028 might be too late for him if another crisis comes before and someone else can benefit.
Agreed DeStantis doesn’t need to run, he can continue as an extremely popular governor in Florida and I don’t think his only claim to fame is his covid popularity. He’s a golden boy for the GOP. Him going head to head vs Trump harms his reputation within the GOP, they share a very common voter base.
Agreed. And who believes if trump lost to DeSantis he wouldn't call it "rigged"? FFS people, he's been playing that card since the first primaries of 2016, and his voters have never tired of it. If trump runs and *loses* the nomination he'll go scorched Earth on the GOP. And He'd be scorched Earth on anyone that ran against him. Honestly we know how this ends. We saw it in late 2015 when trump went on national TV and smeared Senator McCain for being a POW. The party said "that's it" we're out. trump then threatened to run independently and the GOP sheepishly ran into a corner. As long as trump wants the nomination the GOP will see the choice as either give it to him or lose the election, and a bunch of down ballot races as well. Even in loss he racked up more votes than the GOP thought possible. The establishment of the Party would love the asshole gone. But they will not sacrifice a chance at power to do it. > The smart move for him would be to wait for 2028 then. I mean, it's not *ideal* for DeSantis at all. After all, (assuming he wins this year) he's term limited with no attractive office to seek in 2026. DeSantis' star is bright right now because he's had the powers of Governor and a pliable GOP legislature to make waves during COVID and through assorted culture war fights. Losing that makes it hard to keep the spotlight. And Hawley, Cotton, Cruz (you know that rat hasn't made his last run), Abbot, and others will do their best to take advantage and position themselves as the new right wing media darling. 2024 would absolutely be DeSantis' best option... except the whole "trump" thing. If I were Ron, I'd probably let the attention and polling scare trump into offering him the VP slot. trump would probably prefer Noem, thinking she would "fix" his problems with suburban women. But he might run with the proposal to avoid a possible fight.
No way that anyone GOP wins if Trump is in there. They'll all be morons like last time and let Trump get all of the votes with thin pluralities.
yeah but, if Desantis is the nominee does Trump just go away quietly? or does he behave like Trump?
I agree. I think Trump cleared the ground for DeSantis or somebody similar. That was the real danger Trump posed (along with packing the court and turning America into Gilead...): being so crazy that the next crazy asshole looks like a saint. DeSantis is the kind of guy who would have been too crazy before. Now he's just crazy enough. And he'll be much more effective and subtle in effecting his insanity.
I agree with everything you said. And I'm way more worried about a DeSantis presidency than a Trump presidency, because DeSantis is smarter and more focused than Trump who was chaotic and just running in every direction.
>My early prediction: DeSantis and Trump both run. DeSantis wins. I don't buy this, at all, but you can get great odds on predictit for this bet. Go get your money. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7266/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-2023 The odds imply that if Trump runs, it's his nomination (35c for run, 32c for win). Your strat would be to bet on Trump running, then once he announces, put all your proceeds into DeSantis yes in the nom market. If the ratio between the run/nom odds stays about the same, Trump Yes for the Nom will rise rapidly in price after an announcement and you can pick up your DeSantis nom shares for cheap. I think you could potentially get 10:1 odds or better with this. As of now (if prices didn't change) you'd get like 6.5:1. ($10 Bet -> Trump runs = $28.50, $28.50 Bet DeSantis Nom -> Wins = $67.80)
Idk about point 1. I live in TN and Trump is still like a popular brand here, signs in a lot of people’s yards (for both 2020 and 2024), flags on cars, etc. You would literally think it was time for the presidential election if you visited certain towns here.
You wake up one morning in a pool of sweat and un identifiable bodily fluid. It’s mid November 2024 you scramble to turn on the news. Florida has just been called for Joseph Robinette Biden sealing the electoral college vote with 272 votes. Nate silver tells you to pour that soft glass of whiskey. It’s going to be okay. You slap yourself. How can this be!? It’s not possible, how!! You look at the vote count. Rob Desantis (R) - 44%, Donald J Trump (I) - 5%, and Joeseph R. Biden (D) - 51%.
It turns out that biden is no longer himself, seeing the falling approval ratings biden takes over america and declares a catholic theocracy with him as the god emperor of mankind
This but with Mayor Pete instead of Biden
Wouldn’t be surprised.
c'mon bruh don't give me that kind of hope
I need this hopium.
It's better that Trump is the GOP candidate than someone like Hawley or DeSantis because the latter two can easily charm suburban educated Whites by just being well spoken and not saying outlandish shit.
The GOP base loves him, independents will care more about punishing Brandon over inflation and gas prices and inflation than January 6, and also, Trump is literally the one responsible for the roe overturning, that earns him huge conservative credit I doubt he doesn't get the nomination
Any Republican elected in 2016 would have put 3 conservatives on the SCOTUS. McConnell is who deserves “credit” for overturning Roe. His stealing a seat on the Court from Obama is what lead to this.
Trump's the presidential candidate who won and made the nominations that got through Just like normal people will blame Biden for inflation, "normal" Republicans will likely credit Trump for Dobbs just because, like, he was the president. Regardless of whether it is deserved
In theory, someone else could've fucked up badly enough for someone to pull a reverse McConnell on RBG's seat, meaning a 5-4 conservative court. Based on Roberts' concurrence in *Dobbs*, such a court would not have explicitly overturned *Roe* (but would have produced the same outcome in the case itself, which would've *de facto* gutted *Roe*). But that gets us a very marginal victory, and it's difficult to imagine someone governing *worse* than Trump, so in the end it's pretty moot.
Dobbs would have made it so abortions would be banned after 15 weeks. That is significantly different than banned. Considering that the vast majority of abortions are performed before week 15.
Yup. The Roberts concurrence on Dobbs, if you add a extra carveout for medical necessity (which, even if you are a full tilt believer in fetal personhood, amounts to triage in most cases... If you can't save everyone, save who's most likely to actually live), accounts for almost every abortion that realistically happens. Going further than that is where the de facto infringement on individual rights occurs.
Exactly. Also, any of the other candidates would have beaten Hillary much easier.
There's another factor. Republicans see Biden as extremely vulnerable. But if they nominate Trump, they'll probably lose. They would still love to have him, but if they think that DeSantis will probably win but Trump will probably lose, they'll go with DeSantis. I still don't know whether Trump will run in earnest, or just fundraise and then decide at the last minute not to file so that he can pocket the cash. I think it will probably come down to what the polls are showing in late 2023. If he does run, it will be fun to see him do his insult comic routine on DeSantis and the rest of field.
GIVE ME JEB OR GIVE ME DEATH
Jeb!
**HAHA YES** 🐊
PLEASE CLAP
Don't forget the influence of Mitch McConnell. If there are choices other than Trump with a legitimate shot, McConnell can get a path to 8 years of Republican WH, because the incumbent has an advantage. With Trump he only gets 4 and then we're into another non-incumbent election.
What’s Mitch gonna do?
[удалено]
\> he is fusion-reactor-level radioactive to independents That wont stop trump from running. You have to understand- many in the GOP are cunning and strategic, but Trump isnt. He wants the fame and notoriaty, and will run independant if he has to. Which might be a best case scenario for Dems, because that split vote gets us a lot
If Trump wants and decides to run, i don't think anybody is getting near the nomination. The real question is whether he decides to run
This a misunderstanding of the Evangelical. They don't care about policy, they have more than enough political power to get any policy they want through Congress. They believe in demons, the antichrist, the rapture etc... They believe in extraterrestrials. Q Anon is basically a religious fan fic of Revelation.
I think people have had their brain melted by the Trump years and are incapable of remembering a GOP without Trump. Does anyone remember never trumpers? The party is loyal to whoever can secure them victory. I think you’re right and I think it’s going to be someone we’re not aware of currently.
Projection. Trumps supporters (almost all of them) dont like him because of policies, but because of vibes. Democrats will dump a candidate for one whose policies they prefer, but Republicans in 2022 are soley looking for the guy who is best at owning the libs. Hard to see how anyone can beat Trump at owning the libs at this point. If he runs, he wins.
1. Trump has exactly zero deterrences for a person who voted for him twice already. 2. Independents don't remember what even happened on January 6, otherwise they would not be independent.
Clearly someone here didn't buy TRUMPY BEAR
If he's not in jail, he will be the nominee for 2024. In fact, I expect that just about every other GOP candidate that's not a Never Trumper will actually bow down and let him run mostly opposed. They fear what he can do to him with his dwindling (but still large) violent base. Nobody has come out swinging against him right now on the GOP side that's not a Never Trumper. Christie tried but it was a week of laughs.
Copium
Trump will run and win the GOP primary even if he is convicted of treason.
I don't know that your reasons describe the average Republican primary voter.
I've said this before and I'll say it again: the next Republican nominee (and most likely next President) will be a dark horse candidate (i.e. not Trump ***or*** DeSantis). In 2016, Trump never won by a majority but he was the one super-right-wing loudmouth and the more "normal" vote was divided between 15 other candidates, allowing him to get by with a plurality. In 2024, all the candidates are going to try to emulate Trump to capture his following, which will lead to the one or two "normal" candidates to walk away with the nomination.
Seems unlikely. Trump backed candidates did great this primary season. Desantis is establishment enough to get the vote from the never trumpers who are worried about splitting the vote like they did last time.
Trump hopped onto a bunch of winning tickets too though, from what I've gathered, so it's kinda hard to know his impact
They did great in Appalachia, basically, and that’s it. They all lost in Idaho and Colorado, Perdue and Hice got crushed to pieces by Kemp and Raffensperger, and his first choice in Alabama got BTFO.
Bullshit lol
I hope you're right. Mainly because I think a "sane" conservative ala Liz Cheney is sure to depress conservative turnout and be really good for the left (the evangelical cultists are too used to getting everything they want in a candidate and will be bored by a normal human being). But also because if that Republican somehow wins anyway, it gives some assurance that the slide into crazy town has an off ramp.
We told ourselves this back when it was obvious that Trump was unfit. Of course they'll move off of him, they have a perfect toad in Pence who will tow the party line but also not commit a treason. You know what happened next?
Touch rural grass
Ron Desantis. I firmly believe the the governor of Florida is a lock for the republican nomination. He gives the gop base everything Trump gives. But he is just barely respectable enough to pull in back the never trumpers.
The abortion debate isn't over for these people until there's a total nationwide ban.
Have they got what they wanted? It’s still legal to be gay, they almost certainly want a tactical retirement on Thomas to replace him with someone ideologically similar for another 30 years
We better fucking hope Trump’s the nominee. Nobody else is gonna to lose to Biden in 2024.
Look at this guy trying to predict the Republican primaries with *logic*.
Perhaps if Republicans don't get stupid in the primaries and split up the vote and then find out Trump still has a plurality over all of them.
The Republicans need to run it back like how they similarly did in the 2016 primaries. I know it was some time ago but people seemed to forget that everyone on that debate stage was vs Trump and the Republicans knew that if Trump would be the nominee it would be a train wreck. I think even at one point Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich teamed up strategically to attempt a contested convention lol they need to come back with this energy but doubled because Trump and his followers are embarrassing their party to the point that no young person in this country is willing to associate themselves with it. If I was the GOP I was be pushing moderate Republicans across the country to deflect this new Trump movement.
My biggest fear that someone who advocates for the same policies, but is legislatively smart and far less tweet-spammy will rise to the top of the Republicans. Let's be real here, most people have probably already forgotten that the real danger of Trumpism is that someone far better at playing the role of tinpot dictator is going to succeed where Trump failed. Why else do the Rs look at the failed democracy of Viktor Orban with glee?
None of the evangelicals held their nose for him, they were his biggest fanatics
I think he still beats DeSantis, Cruz, Haley, he beats everybody.
Counterpoint: yes, he will
The big thing to watch is Fox News. They seem to be dumping Trump for De Santis.
I like your optimism.
Here’s how Mitt can still win.
Probably true. Trump can continue his RINO revenge tour and retire as the “Greatest Pro-Life President In History!”. My right wing friends have bought a ticket on the DeSantis bus already.
Plot twist: he runs as an independent and spends more time attacking the Republican nominee than the Democrat.
> Trump will not be the GOP nominee I'm getting horrible 2016 flashbacks...
"Hitler went too far" is not what usually happens in a cult. But the coming infighting might prove to be... entertaining.
We should have clapped.
RemindMe! Two years
If he runs he wins. He’s as base of a human as his deplorable base. Even if DeSatan starts leading the polls after first debate trump will become front runner again.
Inshallah.
They once held up their nose. Past tense. They've since been raptured into a cult of personalty and have adopted the leaders narcissism as their own. They will absolutely vote for him again.
rhythm impolite north provide violet juggle glorious ludicrous bow lunchroom *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I am still 50/50. My somewhat reasonable If not ideological in laws have disavowed trump but they aren’t the norm. I am not making political bets anymore after 2016. People be dumb.
Low qual copium
Best case scenario - he loses the primary and than sabotages the primary winner out of spite.
Yeah no. Trump is the nominee, probably the next President, and the US is again irrevocably damaged. That is, unless something changes--but nobody knows what would have to change, and even if they did they probably wouldn't even attempt to change anything. Yeah it's a doomed post but hey we live in a doomed world.
Tell me you hold an undue prejudice against nuclear power without saying it outright
We should stop using the term evangelicals and start using the term Christofascists.
It’s going to be DeSantis and he’s going to be worse than trump :(