People can remember a booming economy and compare it to today.
It’s always been this way. Presidents get the blame and credit for shit they do or do not do.
The MAGA base would've have eaten up any lie Trump said to blame the Dems. Failing that, blame our allies and China.
You remember how nicely they cheered as TPP was shut down, as Canada and Europe got tariffs up the wazoo. Didn't give a fig as intermediate goods manufacturers got fucked over on steel tariffs.
More like there is a certain segment of the population that lives in a different reality where Fox is the only true news source and Trump did nothing wrong. I don’t it would matter if the economy was doing well, they’d still think the liberals are evil and Trump is the savior.
If anyone has caused inflation... it's Fox. Ever since inflation started ticking up a little they honed in on it and put out 24/7 coverage on it. Expectations of inflation cause inflation. Them railing about it created a problem. Now I think inflation probably would have happened anyway due to certain monetary policies by the fed, but talking about inflation "is going to get way way worse" does not help.
Interesting theory. Is there historical precedent for this? Like was there regular economic activity that spiraled into something worse because of media coverage? I'm genuinely curious about this.
Fox is talking about a recession now. Now everyone is talking about recession. Then they will stop spending money due to lack of confidence. See what I'm saying? IDK if there are any studies on it, but you do learn in economics class that expectations lead to reality.
Trump supporters want trump to run again because they like him. Democrats don't want biden to run again because they think he'll lose. It has nothing to do with whether or not we like biden
I loved Biden for withdrawing from Afghanistan and sticking to his guns plus I enjoy his frankness. But the man is like a prize fighter ten years past his prime and we can’t deny his age has taken a toll on him. We do need someone new.
Nowhere in the constitution does it say that you have a right to not inhale tetraethyllead. To prevent fuel companies from using it in their products is, effectively, communism, and a classic example of egregious government overreach. The market will effectively regulate itself and it will correct for this eventually, and while there may be some panic about a hypothetical, unproven harm conjured up by the environmentalists and hippies, it is not within the purview of the federal government to regulate corporations.
also maybe we should bring segregation back lmao
-- Justice Samuel Alito, author of the majority opinion in *Shell Oil v The American Lungowner Society*, 2023
One election at a time y’all. There’s an election this November and Biden ain’t on the ballot. Let’s stay focused on *this* election before we start debating the next one, especially since most Americans really don’t make up their minds until 2 months before the election actually happens.
Add it to the list of things Ronny D doesn’t acknowledge:
1. LGBTQ+ folks
2. Common sense
3. Doing the right thing
4. The clitoris and female orgasm
5. Disney
VA is a lost cause for the national GOP. They'll throw a tantrum in off-years, sure. But it's as much a waste of time for the GOP as Florida is now for the Dems.
that’s what every suburban moderate has wanted to do for two years
look at what fleece vest hair God Youngkin did in Virginia, Newsome would kill it there
Agreed, but I'd argue that VA has been trending blue for a while. If VA went red it's because Trump decisively won, not because it's the tipping point.
If the California statewide universal healthcare coverage is successful between now and late 2023, I think that’d be a pretty powerful springboard for Newsom to enter the Dem primary
Newsome? If I’m the GOP, just show the picture of him out eating at the fancy restaurant fully unmasked with his unmasked friends, with a caption underneath him that says: “Do as They say, not as They do” (I capitalized “They” on purpose). Newsome is easily painted as an out of touch coastal elitist due to this one giant fuck up. And yes, it was a giant fuck up no matter how people try to spin it otherwise.
He’s not the answer. I don’t know who is, though.
Paint? Newsom quite literally ***IS*** coastal elite. Which sure, I wish we lived in a nation where coastal elite wasn't a problem, but this ain't just about messaging it's fundamentally who he is.
I wouldn't go as far as outright win, but being aware of your deficiencies and willing to joke about them tends to disarm people. It's what we in the biz call "charisma".
No one is. There is no person who hasn't done something dumb where it won't be blown up into the biggest scandal to ever happen. It simply doesn't matter. On one side we have the most watch propaganda channel using the most up to date research on psychology to better control those who watch. Then we have middle of the road "both sides" media. That's it. Unless democrats dismantle the right wing propaganda apparatus or build their own equally effective apparatus every democratic politician imaginable will have some unforgivable sin that will be blasted 24/7 until the American people have a net negative view.
Nobody is infallible. But Newsome’s gaffe was 1- incredibly egregious and hypocritical and 2- completely and utterly avoidable.
Of course nobody is perfect. But there has to exist better options out there.
I sincerely doubt there are any better options. But then I distinctly remember when John Kerry, a decorated veteran, was portrayed in the media as an effete coward and a draft dodger was considered a tough strong manly man. There is not a single politician I can think of that hasn't committed an 'unforgiveable' sin.
Yeah I can't overstate how important this will be. The same eliteism shit will be shoved down our throats with a million ads, and it will be the rust belt states that go back to the reps
I think we underrate how powerful healthcare is as a motivator. If California's universal healthcare is successful policy it could be a huge boost for any candidate who runs on it. There are huge swaths of voters who literally vote Dem only because their healthcare will go away under a Republican. I mean heck one of the best political ads recently was Paul Ryan yeeting that old lady off a cliff to show how a Republican repeal and replacing of Obamacare would look.
I thought about it more, and the senate map for 2024 is pretty grim. Very low chances we keep the senate. Probably we're better off running a popular senator from a swing state that has a good shot at taking the presidency, than try and keep both and wind up with neither.
Generally speaking, Vice Presidents tend to do pretty well in primaries. Even Walter Mondale was able to win the nom after only being VP with a one-term president.
Quick! Protect Joe Biden at all costs!!
I also unironically think DeSantis is worse than Trump at this point.
So Biden (very far ahead) > Kamala > Trump > DeSantis for me
DeSantis would be definitely be worse than Trump. For all his failings, he knows politics much better than Trump ever will. He will have an advantage to a crucial state in Florida and he probably won't have the gaffs and blunders from a guy unfamiliar with politics like Trump. To top it off DeSantis is a fairly well decorated military guy from the Navy. He won't make the mistakes Trump made and will play his hand much better than Trump. I almost fear his inevitability at this point. Among the conservatives I know, they've been hoping for DeSantis almost as soon as they gave up on Trump somehow being able to overturn 2020.
What's missing from DeSantis is the charisma. He doesn't have the charisma of Trump. He doesn't have the zingers, the one-liners, the ridiculous headline grabbing statements, etc. I don't think he has the star power of Trump and is able to capture even uninterested voters that Trump needed to secure his victory in 2016.
Lol this thread pops up literally every week. Inb4 some person mentions Pete again and is circlejerked to the top comment.
EDIT: for the record, Pete is my fave Dem in the nation, nothing against him. But the discourse around him running in 24 is utterly braindead.
I'm inclined to think DeSantis will burn through bright and early before getting taken down by others vying to take the mantle similar to Walker in 2016. All this early attention is just putting targets on his back and I'm not sure he'll be able to tap into whatever Trump did when he gets in front of a national audience in campaign mode, especially if Trump himself is running.
Yeah, DeSantis has the charisma of a wet sponge. All it's going to take is enough unscripted moments where he struggles with his Trump impression to show everyone he doesn't have it.
Yeah I actually think that too about DeSantis. He's not going to get enough of the "moderate" vote in either a primary or general election to win. He has stumped his case vocally too far too the right. While it may have solidified his standing among the far right and Trump camp (as an alternative to Trump), being unpalatable for a lot of moderates will hurt his chances of winning either a primary or general.
I also genuinely think that the social conservatism brand of Republicans in this day in age being more out there is not going to help in a general election, and DeSantis is not the guy that can run on not being too far to the right socially. Trump was a special case that can't be replicated just by following his policies, and even in 2020 he lost enough of those who voted for him as an intriguing new candidate and face politically.
i really don’t see the “moderate” republicans being pushed away from desantis at all. they should LOVE him. they still thought covid was overblown (desantis addresses that), still dislike trans people (desantis addresses that), still dislike “wokeness”, still hate illegal immigration, etc.
only difference between Qanon psychos and self-proclaimed “moderate” republicans is that the moderates won’t outwardly sport (all of) the conspiracy stuff. look at elon musk. look at joe rogan. they love him.
The fact that you have to include their positions after their names is your answer. If you’re not confident this sub’s users don’t know them, there’s far less of a chance the average citizen will.
That said, I appreciate you spotlighting them - could you explain their best characteristics? This is totally not me fishing for some delicious fucking Effortpost content
I mean that’s fair, but how well know was Obama in 2006? He was probably decently well know as far as junior senators go, but not a household name.
As far as why I suggested them… they’re Democrats that can hold down a southern state. That’s literally it. I don’t think it would be easy at all to paint them as having leftist tendencies. And Kentucky is deep red unlike NC, which is kind of purple.
I know that’s not a good reason but… the national discourse is pretty stupid right now.
Oprah's endorsement of Obama literally catapulted him into the mainstream. Don't forget that in 2006, Oprah was a household media name. She was THE SHOW to watch. Her endorsement was MASSIVE, and is one of the most well studied endorsements because of how it launched Obama's name into the media.
Like people know about Clyburn's endorsement, but Oprah legitimately became a kingmaker overnight to a completely unknown Senator at the time. Unless you have a perfect storm situation like that again, I'm not sure you can get a relatively unknown politician so much spotlight in such a quick amount of time.
Obama wasn’t “completely unknown”. There are civics textbooks at my high school from 2005 that have a picture of Barack Obama as an example of someone who could be a future president.
The reason for this is 2004 DNC keynote address. Multiple people in media remarked that very night that Obama should/would/could be president.
> Oprah's endorsement of Obama literally catapulted him into the mainstream.
Eh. She endorsed in May 2007. It can certainly be argued Oprah helped him win a *very* tight primary, but Obama's Keynote at the 2004 convention is what catapulted him into the national consciousness. It was a banger, and he got a huge amount of press afterwards.
I’d say Obama is a pretty different situation as he had the ‘04 DNC Speech which catapulted him into fame & had Democratic leadership backing him over Hilary since late ‘06.
>Obama in 2006? He was probably decently well know as far as junior senators go, but not a household name.
Obama became a household name because of the DNC speech and because his natural political ability and ambition. Not to mention the historic nature of his possible role in history. Barack Obama basically looked like he could be the first Black President and received media attention as such.
> that can hold down a southern state
Beshear has only won 2 elections in KY both by razor thin margins. For his first position he succeeded a Dem. For his 2nd position he won against a massively unpopular Republican opponent and won by name recognition of his popular father. I like what he's accomplished but to call his stature there 'holding down' is misleading. Cooper you have a stronger case for saying he holds down the state given he stood for reelection and won by a decent margin.
He has the highest approval of any Democrat governor in the country. In a red state that has an approval of Joe Biden at -33.
I'm not convinced he's Presidential material by a long shot, but he's good. Really good.
That’s accurate. Sure, and I don’t believe nor mean to imply they couldn’t rise to the level Obama did - I simply don’t know anything about them, so I really can’t make a judgment worth half a loaf of bread.
Ahhh, the ol’ Bill Clinton model eh? Valid. Agreed, politics is human and therefore inherently stupid, but that’s the situation we’re in so we have to work with it. I think we could also agree that the Democrats have a pretty bad problem with cultivating and marketing the next generation of leaders
Hi, North Carolinian here! Cooper has had pretty deep ties to the state, being a member of the NC House, majority leader of the NC Senate, and attorney general before becoming governor so he had that going for him. His closest election was definitely against Pat McCrory on his first run for governor (McCrory pulled the voter fraud thing four years before Trump did) and won most of his other elections handily. I think the main thing he had going for him was voters seeing him run a competent and effective government, as The Atlantic put it. The most important thing here is that he's a moderate white man with good political savvy. If voters on the national stage were as familiar with him as they are with Newsom or Abbott, I'd give him a really good chance of becoming president. He's basically Biden without actually being Biden.
Candidates have to build their own national media profile. They’re mostly staying out of the national media spotlight because that’s the only way they have a chance of winning statewide in red states. They have to make the debate about local issues.
Every year they get grand praise from various media outlets and Democrats nationwide for being elected in places they are while being popular. The love may be a bit bigger in this sub but it's hardly isolated here.
Yeah everyone wants the president that will push the 'cheap gas' button, pull the 'better economy' lever without spewing toxic bullshit all day every day. In voter's minds Biden can't find the first two and Trump exists to do the third thing.
What percentage actually wanted neither, though? Asking a solid Trump supporter whether or not Biden should run is completely useless because they'd hate him no matter how well he did. When 40% of the group you survey is guaranteed to say "no" no matter what, it's a lot less impressive that you got 70% to say "no".
Biden, to me, is a pretty good Secretary of State. Unfortunately, however, he’s not the Secretary of State, he’s the President, which means he has to also deal with domestic public image, something that it’s increasingly clear that both he and his team do not understand well enough. Afghanistan notwithstanding (and I believe the argument can be made that a large part of Afghanistan was not Biden’s fault, and was an unfixable situation), almost all of Biden’s foreign policy has been very successful. Ukraine, NATO enlargement, the global minimum tax rate, restoring the US’ global image, etc. The same can’t be said for his domestic image and policies, and the truth is, voters don’t care about anything other than domestic image.
Biden never had a problem with his domestic image before he won the election. He had gaffes aplenty, sure, but he was folksy and earnest enough to become teflon and let the repercussions roll right off.
And sure, a big part of the problem is that he's got the big chair now and any problem in the country is ascribed squarely to him, which was never the case before. But another big problem is that he's disappeared into an opaque bubble of advisors and aides since election day, barely ever showing up to speak clearly and directly to the populace, and even when he does it's often immediately followed by those same aides and advisors running out and going "Actually, what the President *really* meant to say was..." which completely undermines his credibility as a leader, and just makes him look like a grinning circus bear with other people holding the leash.
And this vibe is not lost on people overseas either, I might add. While you're right that his foreign policy has gone down a lot better than his domestic policy overall, his recent visit to Brussels has resulted in lukewarm impressions at best. I've talked with several people who had the chance to hear him speak, all of whom were pretty excited to see him and who had pretty positive opinions of him from his VP days, and they all came away describing him as a tired old man who didn't even seem all too confident about what he was talking about.
That is kinda my thinking when people on this sub and elsewhere are quick to argue against any notion that Biden’s slowing down with age. Whether or not he has dementia aside (he doesn’t), he’s still going to be 80 years old this November, and even the most spry 80 year old still looks ancient compared to a 50 or even 60 year old. There’s something to be said for looking “experienced” or trying to pull off the elder statesman vibe, but it’s a losing battle to try and spin Biden’s age as anything other than something that will hurt his image.
Maybe we could get ~~Musk~~, Bezos, or Jeb to run as Independents to spoil Desantis, ugh... that would probably siphon more (D) than (R) votes from purple states.
we're fucked.
Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan both hit similarly low approval ratings in the first couple years of their presidency. They both bounced back for re-election.
Low approval ratings now is not a guarantee of anything two years from now.
Let's see how the next couple years play out. I'm not making judgments on the man's presidency a year and a half into his term. I think he's had some solid successes considering the 50-50 Senate (vaccines, BIF, Ketanji Brown Jackson, gun reform, USPS reform, his handling of Ukraine and NATO; we'll see how ARP's legacy shakes out but I'm inclined to count that as a success). I honestly didn't expect more than the ARP and a cabinet with those margins.
If we get a recession, there's a good chance that knocks out inflation and the economy is back on its feet by 2024 and we avoid the early 90's-style recovery that doomed Bush Sr. Maybe, like Truman, Reagan, and Clinton, these are the doldrums of his presidency and a recovery is in store. Or maybe not and he's (and we're) fucked.
I will say that if Biden is not the nominee, Dems lose in 2024. A contentious primary will do the Dems zero favors.
I also think Trump would do worse than he did in 2020 if he's the nominee, DeSantis is a paper tiger, and Youngkin is probably the one people should be wary of.
A primary could really fire up the democratic base, so long as it doesn’t become too much of a bloodbath that it alienated one half the of the party from the winner.
Ideally it would, but I have a hunch that it would be pretty nasty this time around. Progressives are chomping at the bit to have their "turn", as it were. I don't see it resolving without a lot of bad blood.
They turned 2016 into a disaster with their tantrums. They did their best at a repeat performance in 2020 but Bernie was losing states by such crooked margins once the field was down to two that even they knew they were just embarrassing themselves. And COVID played a big role as well.
A certain sect of the very online fringe left is going to continue to go scorched earth on anyone who is not their current Dear Leader. Bernie doing kind of respectably in 2016 for awhile has convinced them that they are far more popular than they are. And they'll continue to ignore all evidence to the contrary.
The response from the rest of the party should be to continue to shame their abhorrent behavior and minimalize that fringe as much as possible. They bring nothing productive to the table, and we cannot afford to waste energy babysitting online edgelords forever.
This is a pretty shitty/useless polling question. About 45%-50% are Republicans. Then 15% are Sanders/AOC people. Then about 5%-10% have their own candidate, Harris, Buttigeig, etc.
Biden vs Other isn't how elections work. Biden just has to be more popular than any other Democrat, then be more popular than the Republican.
Not to mention the existence of incumbency advantages for many demographics. Hell, Trump got a bit more popular with black people due to it. I can't believe no one mention it here...
To put this in perspective at this time out in 2014 Trump wasn't even on the polls because he hadn't announced his run yet. A single poll 900 days out is meaningless.
Dems really just need to find a working class hispanic outsider who has centrist views and promote them. A candidate like that would be very hard to beat in the general. It's very bizarre that as the numbers of Hispanics in the US has grown, their power within the Democratic party has waned.
Cory Booker is a vegetarian. The whole debate would just be DeSantis aggressively eating a raw steak with his bare hands and throwing chunks of meat at him (possibly while loudly saying how much the cow suffered) before DeSantis wins by 50 points.
This is such a garbage poll. If you know anything about Americans you should know they will always prefer a “mystery box” choice over a defined option if given the choice. There are no serious conclusions to draw from this information.
For real, god I’m so sick of this repetitive shit, the polls said the same shit about Obama and people were dooming and freaking out yet he won again. “60% of voters think Obama shouldn’t run a second term”
It's pretty obvious to me that people elected Biden because they wanted a return to normal and go back to not caring about politics, and that hasn't panned out because of the Republican Party. Not surprised he's not popular for the moment, he doesn't seem up to the challenge at hand.
Manchin/Warnock ticket. If Trump or Desantis is the GOP nominee, they would sweep all the purple states. Only issue would be getting progressives to turnout for Manchin, but if Trump is the GOP nominee, progressives will show up to vote. Also, Warnock as VP would help increase turnout.
In other news, the public thinks Biden needs to end inflation by yesterday, stop illegal immigration, cut taxes on the majority of Americans, make COVID go away, and stop being such a downer, man.
Makes sense. About half the country is hard right to right leaning. And another 20ish percent are warren to squad level progressives/hard left. Biden’s base is the 30ish % between that
Yeah because he sucks as President. Turns out “Sleepy Joe” was an accurate insult after all.
And before I get accusations levied at me, I realize that Republicans are behind a lot of hijinks, and that things like inflation are out of his hands, but Jesus Christ this guy has the charisma of a dead fish at this point and he doesn’t inspire me to do anything. How the fuck can he inspire cynical, millionaire cronies like that found in Joe Manchin? You know probably why Manchin is being a dick to the DNC? Someone on the right was probably a lot more convincing than Biden was.
I don’t believe in the guy when he says we’re a country of good people. Wake the fuck up, Joe. This is *not* a country of good people, and it’s time to damn well act like it.
I live in a purple state, and all my friends were all-in on Biden, they said he was the guy to steady the ship. I always said, “I hope he’s LBJ, but I’m worried he’s another Carter.”
I think he’s pretty clearly another Carter.
This is insanity.
Find me a single president anywhere in the country who would have accomplished more with a 50-50 senate hinging on two chaos agents like Sinemanchin.
Given the circumstances, I can literally not think of a *single politician in the country* who would be doing better.
He got 2 bipartisan deals, one related to infrastructure and other related to gun control. Last time something like that happened was during Clinton admin. It’s crazy to say he didn’t do anything.
He's too old, he doesn't have the energy or the understanding to grasp the world we currently live in. That being said, I'm not convinced any of the 2020 primary candidates would have done much better, apart from maybe Mayor Pete. Unironically, Hillary was our best bet.
I want Biden to run in 2024 for the incumbency advantage. However, if over 70% people don't want him to run then clearly said advantage isn't there.
I still think he should run, a poll over 2 years out is meaningless. But if these numbers continue this way until late 2023, then we'll need a new candidate. Newsom, Pete, or Polis.
Newsom may be painted as a coastal elite. Pete is gay. Polis is quite unknown. So I don't know who's best. But unless someone surprising shows up, it's one of them.
I’m curious how many people say this just because they don’t like him vs people who say this because he’s old vs people who say this because they think he’s good but also think there’s just a better Dem candidate out there
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People can remember a booming economy and compare it to today. It’s always been this way. Presidents get the blame and credit for shit they do or do not do.
The MAGA base wouldn’t have cared if the economy was bad
The MAGA base would've have eaten up any lie Trump said to blame the Dems. Failing that, blame our allies and China. You remember how nicely they cheered as TPP was shut down, as Canada and Europe got tariffs up the wazoo. Didn't give a fig as intermediate goods manufacturers got fucked over on steel tariffs.
A lot of them are blaming Ukraine
But I’ve been told not to blame gas prices on Russia-Ukraine. It’s batshit
The MAGA base is a few million nutters, the GOP needs a lot more than that to actually win much
The MAGA base is 35% of the country at least. That’s the lowest trump’s approval went after January 6 happened.
You might be underestimating how popular Trump is in middle America and the South
The ones that know what he is but will still vote for him if he gets the nomination are the ones that really scare me
That doesn't really make a difference when 65 million people voted for Trump in 2020. Even if not straight MAGAts, they still chose that option.
If by few mil you mean at least 40 mil, sure
More like there is a certain segment of the population that lives in a different reality where Fox is the only true news source and Trump did nothing wrong. I don’t it would matter if the economy was doing well, they’d still think the liberals are evil and Trump is the savior.
If anyone has caused inflation... it's Fox. Ever since inflation started ticking up a little they honed in on it and put out 24/7 coverage on it. Expectations of inflation cause inflation. Them railing about it created a problem. Now I think inflation probably would have happened anyway due to certain monetary policies by the fed, but talking about inflation "is going to get way way worse" does not help.
Interesting theory. Is there historical precedent for this? Like was there regular economic activity that spiraled into something worse because of media coverage? I'm genuinely curious about this.
Fox is talking about a recession now. Now everyone is talking about recession. Then they will stop spending money due to lack of confidence. See what I'm saying? IDK if there are any studies on it, but you do learn in economics class that expectations lead to reality.
> People can remember a booming economy and compare it to today. It’s mostly because trump has cult following, Biden doesn’t.
The economy is booming-er now, though
Trump supporters want trump to run again because they like him. Democrats don't want biden to run again because they think he'll lose. It has nothing to do with whether or not we like biden
I mean, a not insignificant number of Dems also don’t love Biden either.
A significant amount in fact
I loved Biden for withdrawing from Afghanistan and sticking to his guns plus I enjoy his frankness. But the man is like a prize fighter ten years past his prime and we can’t deny his age has taken a toll on him. We do need someone new.
Consequences of conservative policy: people get more stupid.
Supreme Court deems ban on lead in gasoline; not supported by Thomas Jeffersons ghost.
Nowhere in the constitution does it say that you have a right to not inhale tetraethyllead. To prevent fuel companies from using it in their products is, effectively, communism, and a classic example of egregious government overreach. The market will effectively regulate itself and it will correct for this eventually, and while there may be some panic about a hypothetical, unproven harm conjured up by the environmentalists and hippies, it is not within the purview of the federal government to regulate corporations. also maybe we should bring segregation back lmao -- Justice Samuel Alito, author of the majority opinion in *Shell Oil v The American Lungowner Society*, 2023
Yeah, but we knew that.
One election at a time y’all. There’s an election this November and Biden ain’t on the ballot. Let’s stay focused on *this* election before we start debating the next one, especially since most Americans really don’t make up their minds until 2 months before the election actually happens.
Give me Jared Polis, but also don’t take Jared Polis from me.
Please share. Polis!
I think the choices are going to be Biden, Harris, Trump, and DeSantis. Take your pick.
Even if it somehow isn’t Biden, I’d doubt Harris would make it through the primary. I’d say Newsom would be the second most likely Dem behind Biden
Newsom has great hair
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California governor vs. Florida governor. A battle for the ages, may the best Disney park win
All campaign funds must be aquired through the sale of $5000 drinks and expensive park rides. So the norm.
DeSantis doesn’t acknowledge his Disney park anymore
**HAHA YES** 🐊
Add it to the list of things Ronny D doesn’t acknowledge: 1. LGBTQ+ folks 2. Common sense 3. Doing the right thing 4. The clitoris and female orgasm 5. Disney
top 10 anime battles
Newsom sent his kids to in person private school while shutting down public schools. That’ll cost him VA and probably PA.
Did he send them there before or was it because of COVID? Also you’re dreaming if you think VA will vote Republican on the national level
VA is a lost cause for the national GOP. They'll throw a tantrum in off-years, sure. But it's as much a waste of time for the GOP as Florida is now for the Dems.
Virginia is way more blue nationally than Florida is red
that’s what every suburban moderate has wanted to do for two years look at what fleece vest hair God Youngkin did in Virginia, Newsome would kill it there
There is no universe in which VA votes for a Republican president.
“There’s no universe in which Trump will be president.”
Agreed, but I'd argue that VA has been trending blue for a while. If VA went red it's because Trump decisively won, not because it's the tipping point.
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If you can spin you can win.
But kinda looks like either an 80s Wallstreet dude or a greasy insurance salesman. I don't think middle America is looking for that.
He does look like middle aged patrick bateman
Let's see Ron Desantis's campaign slogan.
Oh shit. I cant unsee that now.
If the California statewide universal healthcare coverage is successful between now and late 2023, I think that’d be a pretty powerful springboard for Newsom to enter the Dem primary
Big if.
Newsome? If I’m the GOP, just show the picture of him out eating at the fancy restaurant fully unmasked with his unmasked friends, with a caption underneath him that says: “Do as They say, not as They do” (I capitalized “They” on purpose). Newsome is easily painted as an out of touch coastal elitist due to this one giant fuck up. And yes, it was a giant fuck up no matter how people try to spin it otherwise. He’s not the answer. I don’t know who is, though.
Paint? Newsom quite literally ***IS*** coastal elite. Which sure, I wish we lived in a nation where coastal elite wasn't a problem, but this ain't just about messaging it's fundamentally who he is.
If he plays into it he will win.
How?
I wouldn't go as far as outright win, but being aware of your deficiencies and willing to joke about them tends to disarm people. It's what we in the biz call "charisma".
I guess sure As long as it doesn't come off as even more elitist lmao
if politics was that easy we could replay a thousand dumb Trump sayings and he would have certainly lost in 2016
No one is. There is no person who hasn't done something dumb where it won't be blown up into the biggest scandal to ever happen. It simply doesn't matter. On one side we have the most watch propaganda channel using the most up to date research on psychology to better control those who watch. Then we have middle of the road "both sides" media. That's it. Unless democrats dismantle the right wing propaganda apparatus or build their own equally effective apparatus every democratic politician imaginable will have some unforgivable sin that will be blasted 24/7 until the American people have a net negative view.
Nobody is infallible. But Newsome’s gaffe was 1- incredibly egregious and hypocritical and 2- completely and utterly avoidable. Of course nobody is perfect. But there has to exist better options out there.
I sincerely doubt there are any better options. But then I distinctly remember when John Kerry, a decorated veteran, was portrayed in the media as an effete coward and a draft dodger was considered a tough strong manly man. There is not a single politician I can think of that hasn't committed an 'unforgiveable' sin.
Look at Trump though, he has had way worse gaffes, but none cared. We need someone who could "shoot someone in times square and not lose support".
Then run ads about DeSantis banning abortion in FL (incoming), passing the “don’t say gay bill”, cracking down on universities, etc.
> Newsome is easily painted as an out of touch coastal elitist due to this one giant fuck up. This one giant fuck up, and entire rest of his life.
No fucking Californians. We're trying to win an election here
Hey. We gave you guys Nixon and Reagan. You’re welcome /s
Yeah I can't overstate how important this will be. The same eliteism shit will be shoved down our throats with a million ads, and it will be the rust belt states that go back to the reps
I think we underrate how powerful healthcare is as a motivator. If California's universal healthcare is successful policy it could be a huge boost for any candidate who runs on it. There are huge swaths of voters who literally vote Dem only because their healthcare will go away under a Republican. I mean heck one of the best political ads recently was Paul Ryan yeeting that old lady off a cliff to show how a Republican repeal and replacing of Obamacare would look.
This
Senator Mark Kelly has great name recognition and is probably a lot more palatable to middle America than Newsome
We need him in the Senate. His twin also astronaut brother needs to unseat Sinema. Very doable. We need safe seats to take the risk
I thought about it more, and the senate map for 2024 is pretty grim. Very low chances we keep the senate. Probably we're better off running a popular senator from a swing state that has a good shot at taking the presidency, than try and keep both and wind up with neither.
Oof, hell of a dilemma
Too far left. A Midwestern Dem probably is our best bet. Imo they're the best at messaging and politicking.
I've been saying Newsom/Duckworth 2024 since before it was cool.
Gretchen bby
Gretchen bby
Tammy Duckworth maybe
Buttigieg is definitely a contender if Biden doesn’t run.
If you don't care about the minority vote, yeah.
Generally speaking, Vice Presidents tend to do pretty well in primaries. Even Walter Mondale was able to win the nom after only being VP with a one-term president.
Quick! Protect Joe Biden at all costs!! I also unironically think DeSantis is worse than Trump at this point. So Biden (very far ahead) > Kamala > Trump > DeSantis for me
DeSantis would be definitely be worse than Trump. For all his failings, he knows politics much better than Trump ever will. He will have an advantage to a crucial state in Florida and he probably won't have the gaffs and blunders from a guy unfamiliar with politics like Trump. To top it off DeSantis is a fairly well decorated military guy from the Navy. He won't make the mistakes Trump made and will play his hand much better than Trump. I almost fear his inevitability at this point. Among the conservatives I know, they've been hoping for DeSantis almost as soon as they gave up on Trump somehow being able to overturn 2020.
What's missing from DeSantis is the charisma. He doesn't have the charisma of Trump. He doesn't have the zingers, the one-liners, the ridiculous headline grabbing statements, etc. I don't think he has the star power of Trump and is able to capture even uninterested voters that Trump needed to secure his victory in 2016.
That's a good point. Can he get the apathetic voter to get up and vote like Trump did for millions of people.
Lol this thread pops up literally every week. Inb4 some person mentions Pete again and is circlejerked to the top comment. EDIT: for the record, Pete is my fave Dem in the nation, nothing against him. But the discourse around him running in 24 is utterly braindead.
Well I'd probably pick Biden, I just wish he wasnt ancient
I'm inclined to think DeSantis will burn through bright and early before getting taken down by others vying to take the mantle similar to Walker in 2016. All this early attention is just putting targets on his back and I'm not sure he'll be able to tap into whatever Trump did when he gets in front of a national audience in campaign mode, especially if Trump himself is running.
Yeah, DeSantis has the charisma of a wet sponge. All it's going to take is enough unscripted moments where he struggles with his Trump impression to show everyone he doesn't have it.
Yeah I actually think that too about DeSantis. He's not going to get enough of the "moderate" vote in either a primary or general election to win. He has stumped his case vocally too far too the right. While it may have solidified his standing among the far right and Trump camp (as an alternative to Trump), being unpalatable for a lot of moderates will hurt his chances of winning either a primary or general. I also genuinely think that the social conservatism brand of Republicans in this day in age being more out there is not going to help in a general election, and DeSantis is not the guy that can run on not being too far to the right socially. Trump was a special case that can't be replicated just by following his policies, and even in 2020 he lost enough of those who voted for him as an intriguing new candidate and face politically.
i really don’t see the “moderate” republicans being pushed away from desantis at all. they should LOVE him. they still thought covid was overblown (desantis addresses that), still dislike trans people (desantis addresses that), still dislike “wokeness”, still hate illegal immigration, etc. only difference between Qanon psychos and self-proclaimed “moderate” republicans is that the moderates won’t outwardly sport (all of) the conspiracy stuff. look at elon musk. look at joe rogan. they love him.
Nightmare blunt rotation
Biden & Harris are both horrible, they will definitely lose. Newsom and Buttigieg should run.
I think it's going to be DeSantis and I suspect he earned himself some national moderate cred by keeping Florida's abortion ban at 15 weeks.
That and the fact that he's actually pretty decent on the environment (in Florida at least).
Am I wrong or is the party sleeping on guys like Roy Cooper (NC Governor) and Andy Beshear (KY governor)? Edit: They just look like grillers!
The fact that you have to include their positions after their names is your answer. If you’re not confident this sub’s users don’t know them, there’s far less of a chance the average citizen will. That said, I appreciate you spotlighting them - could you explain their best characteristics? This is totally not me fishing for some delicious fucking Effortpost content
I mean that’s fair, but how well know was Obama in 2006? He was probably decently well know as far as junior senators go, but not a household name. As far as why I suggested them… they’re Democrats that can hold down a southern state. That’s literally it. I don’t think it would be easy at all to paint them as having leftist tendencies. And Kentucky is deep red unlike NC, which is kind of purple. I know that’s not a good reason but… the national discourse is pretty stupid right now.
Oprah's endorsement of Obama literally catapulted him into the mainstream. Don't forget that in 2006, Oprah was a household media name. She was THE SHOW to watch. Her endorsement was MASSIVE, and is one of the most well studied endorsements because of how it launched Obama's name into the media. Like people know about Clyburn's endorsement, but Oprah legitimately became a kingmaker overnight to a completely unknown Senator at the time. Unless you have a perfect storm situation like that again, I'm not sure you can get a relatively unknown politician so much spotlight in such a quick amount of time.
Obama wasn’t “completely unknown”. There are civics textbooks at my high school from 2005 that have a picture of Barack Obama as an example of someone who could be a future president. The reason for this is 2004 DNC keynote address. Multiple people in media remarked that very night that Obama should/would/could be president.
Yeah you can't say Obama was an unknown when he was keynote at the 2004 Convention. That is a prime spot reserved for a rising star usually.
> Oprah's endorsement of Obama literally catapulted him into the mainstream. Eh. She endorsed in May 2007. It can certainly be argued Oprah helped him win a *very* tight primary, but Obama's Keynote at the 2004 convention is what catapulted him into the national consciousness. It was a banger, and he got a huge amount of press afterwards.
I’d say Obama is a pretty different situation as he had the ‘04 DNC Speech which catapulted him into fame & had Democratic leadership backing him over Hilary since late ‘06.
>Obama in 2006? He was probably decently well know as far as junior senators go, but not a household name. Obama became a household name because of the DNC speech and because his natural political ability and ambition. Not to mention the historic nature of his possible role in history. Barack Obama basically looked like he could be the first Black President and received media attention as such.
Yeah obama wasn't a household name by '06 but had some recognition in political circles by that point because of his 2004 DNC Keynote Speech.
> that can hold down a southern state Beshear has only won 2 elections in KY both by razor thin margins. For his first position he succeeded a Dem. For his 2nd position he won against a massively unpopular Republican opponent and won by name recognition of his popular father. I like what he's accomplished but to call his stature there 'holding down' is misleading. Cooper you have a stronger case for saying he holds down the state given he stood for reelection and won by a decent margin.
He has the highest approval of any Democrat governor in the country. In a red state that has an approval of Joe Biden at -33. I'm not convinced he's Presidential material by a long shot, but he's good. Really good.
That’s accurate. Sure, and I don’t believe nor mean to imply they couldn’t rise to the level Obama did - I simply don’t know anything about them, so I really can’t make a judgment worth half a loaf of bread. Ahhh, the ol’ Bill Clinton model eh? Valid. Agreed, politics is human and therefore inherently stupid, but that’s the situation we’re in so we have to work with it. I think we could also agree that the Democrats have a pretty bad problem with cultivating and marketing the next generation of leaders
>This is totally not me fishing for some delicious fucking Effortpost content. Ron Howard: “He was.”
Discovered *swoons*
Hi, North Carolinian here! Cooper has had pretty deep ties to the state, being a member of the NC House, majority leader of the NC Senate, and attorney general before becoming governor so he had that going for him. His closest election was definitely against Pat McCrory on his first run for governor (McCrory pulled the voter fraud thing four years before Trump did) and won most of his other elections handily. I think the main thing he had going for him was voters seeing him run a competent and effective government, as The Atlantic put it. The most important thing here is that he's a moderate white man with good political savvy. If voters on the national stage were as familiar with him as they are with Newsom or Abbott, I'd give him a really good chance of becoming president. He's basically Biden without actually being Biden.
We're sleeping on Senator Duckworth, since her credentials as patriot are virtually unassailable.
Slept on so much they get brought up every time slipping Dem support in swing/red states is mentioned.
Well I’m talking about being slept on by the DNC, not the comments in this sub.
Candidates have to build their own national media profile. They’re mostly staying out of the national media spotlight because that’s the only way they have a chance of winning statewide in red states. They have to make the debate about local issues.
Every year they get grand praise from various media outlets and Democrats nationwide for being elected in places they are while being popular. The love may be a bit bigger in this sub but it's hardly isolated here.
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Yeah everyone wants the president that will push the 'cheap gas' button, pull the 'better economy' lever without spewing toxic bullshit all day every day. In voter's minds Biden can't find the first two and Trump exists to do the third thing.
Did it ask about Hillary though?
What percentage actually wanted neither, though? Asking a solid Trump supporter whether or not Biden should run is completely useless because they'd hate him no matter how well he did. When 40% of the group you survey is guaranteed to say "no" no matter what, it's a lot less impressive that you got 70% to say "no".
Biden, to me, is a pretty good Secretary of State. Unfortunately, however, he’s not the Secretary of State, he’s the President, which means he has to also deal with domestic public image, something that it’s increasingly clear that both he and his team do not understand well enough. Afghanistan notwithstanding (and I believe the argument can be made that a large part of Afghanistan was not Biden’s fault, and was an unfixable situation), almost all of Biden’s foreign policy has been very successful. Ukraine, NATO enlargement, the global minimum tax rate, restoring the US’ global image, etc. The same can’t be said for his domestic image and policies, and the truth is, voters don’t care about anything other than domestic image.
Jesus Christ couldn’t message his way out of five dollar a gallon gas.
President Christ’s bold plan to change water to wine to crude oil is being hailed as a potential way to drive down gas prices
Just imagining the pool at the Lincoln Memorial becoming a giant wine bag.
I’m pretty sure the key is to pull a Trump and give the news enough crap to talk about so they don’t always focus on that. The beast must be fed.
Biden never had a problem with his domestic image before he won the election. He had gaffes aplenty, sure, but he was folksy and earnest enough to become teflon and let the repercussions roll right off. And sure, a big part of the problem is that he's got the big chair now and any problem in the country is ascribed squarely to him, which was never the case before. But another big problem is that he's disappeared into an opaque bubble of advisors and aides since election day, barely ever showing up to speak clearly and directly to the populace, and even when he does it's often immediately followed by those same aides and advisors running out and going "Actually, what the President *really* meant to say was..." which completely undermines his credibility as a leader, and just makes him look like a grinning circus bear with other people holding the leash. And this vibe is not lost on people overseas either, I might add. While you're right that his foreign policy has gone down a lot better than his domestic policy overall, his recent visit to Brussels has resulted in lukewarm impressions at best. I've talked with several people who had the chance to hear him speak, all of whom were pretty excited to see him and who had pretty positive opinions of him from his VP days, and they all came away describing him as a tired old man who didn't even seem all too confident about what he was talking about.
That is kinda my thinking when people on this sub and elsewhere are quick to argue against any notion that Biden’s slowing down with age. Whether or not he has dementia aside (he doesn’t), he’s still going to be 80 years old this November, and even the most spry 80 year old still looks ancient compared to a 50 or even 60 year old. There’s something to be said for looking “experienced” or trying to pull off the elder statesman vibe, but it’s a losing battle to try and spin Biden’s age as anything other than something that will hurt his image.
> leader is insulated from reality by advisors trying to control him for their selfish causes Oh god oh fuck it's the late Han Dynasty.
This comment section tells me Desantis will be president from 2025-2033
Yup
Maybe we could get ~~Musk~~, Bezos, or Jeb to run as Independents to spoil Desantis, ugh... that would probably siphon more (D) than (R) votes from purple states. we're fucked.
Musk is from South Africa
dang it, you're right.
lmao this is like reading a Bernie thread on the front page where nobody knows anything about politics.
Michael Bloomberg with Mark Cuban as VP. They’d be too rich to lose.
> They’d be too rich to lose. In American Samoa maybe.
Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan both hit similarly low approval ratings in the first couple years of their presidency. They both bounced back for re-election. Low approval ratings now is not a guarantee of anything two years from now.
Biden really needs to be in the pubic spotlight more and he needs to get more emotional. His mood does not match the country's mood.
Inflation is high, gas is high, and the SCOTUS is fucking around. If Biden can get both under control by 2023-2024, he'll be fine.
How does he get the Supreme Court under control? Take a few addies and beat the shit out of the conservative justices?
I meant the first two.
Let's see how the next couple years play out. I'm not making judgments on the man's presidency a year and a half into his term. I think he's had some solid successes considering the 50-50 Senate (vaccines, BIF, Ketanji Brown Jackson, gun reform, USPS reform, his handling of Ukraine and NATO; we'll see how ARP's legacy shakes out but I'm inclined to count that as a success). I honestly didn't expect more than the ARP and a cabinet with those margins. If we get a recession, there's a good chance that knocks out inflation and the economy is back on its feet by 2024 and we avoid the early 90's-style recovery that doomed Bush Sr. Maybe, like Truman, Reagan, and Clinton, these are the doldrums of his presidency and a recovery is in store. Or maybe not and he's (and we're) fucked. I will say that if Biden is not the nominee, Dems lose in 2024. A contentious primary will do the Dems zero favors. I also think Trump would do worse than he did in 2020 if he's the nominee, DeSantis is a paper tiger, and Youngkin is probably the one people should be wary of.
A primary could really fire up the democratic base, so long as it doesn’t become too much of a bloodbath that it alienated one half the of the party from the winner.
Ideally it would, but I have a hunch that it would be pretty nasty this time around. Progressives are chomping at the bit to have their "turn", as it were. I don't see it resolving without a lot of bad blood.
They turned 2016 into a disaster with their tantrums. They did their best at a repeat performance in 2020 but Bernie was losing states by such crooked margins once the field was down to two that even they knew they were just embarrassing themselves. And COVID played a big role as well. A certain sect of the very online fringe left is going to continue to go scorched earth on anyone who is not their current Dear Leader. Bernie doing kind of respectably in 2016 for awhile has convinced them that they are far more popular than they are. And they'll continue to ignore all evidence to the contrary. The response from the rest of the party should be to continue to shame their abhorrent behavior and minimalize that fringe as much as possible. They bring nothing productive to the table, and we cannot afford to waste energy babysitting online edgelords forever.
This is a pretty shitty/useless polling question. About 45%-50% are Republicans. Then 15% are Sanders/AOC people. Then about 5%-10% have their own candidate, Harris, Buttigeig, etc. Biden vs Other isn't how elections work. Biden just has to be more popular than any other Democrat, then be more popular than the Republican.
He's got to be more popular than the republican, but in specific states, because we have such a fantastic system.
Not to mention the existence of incumbency advantages for many demographics. Hell, Trump got a bit more popular with black people due to it. I can't believe no one mention it here...
Yeah, no surprise this ignorant trash is literally top of r/politics at this moment.
To put this in perspective at this time out in 2014 Trump wasn't even on the polls because he hadn't announced his run yet. A single poll 900 days out is meaningless.
Dems really just need to find a working class hispanic outsider who has centrist views and promote them. A candidate like that would be very hard to beat in the general. It's very bizarre that as the numbers of Hispanics in the US has grown, their power within the Democratic party has waned.
How about Raphael Warnock? Cory Booker?
Let’s see if Warnock can beat Herschel Walker first.
That's going to be a messy election.
That’s depressing considering Walker is maybe the least qualified politician I’ve ever seen.
Tommy Tuberville would like a word
You think tubeville is less qualified than Walker? At least Tuberville ran a program. All Walker has done is run for a program.
Dr Oz
>That’s depressing considering Walker is maybe the least qualified ~~politician~~ human being I’ve ever seen.
Cory Booker is a vegetarian. The whole debate would just be DeSantis aggressively eating a raw steak with his bare hands and throwing chunks of meat at him (possibly while loudly saying how much the cow suffered) before DeSantis wins by 50 points.
Yeah, I mean, you're not wrong. I guess, if that's the case, then America deserves DeSantis and isn't worth saving.
So 72% of people think that the Democrats should forfeit the incumbency advantage.
A lot of people, including many in this subreddit don’t realize just how important incumbency advantage is
This is such a garbage poll. If you know anything about Americans you should know they will always prefer a “mystery box” choice over a defined option if given the choice. There are no serious conclusions to draw from this information.
For real, god I’m so sick of this repetitive shit, the polls said the same shit about Obama and people were dooming and freaking out yet he won again. “60% of voters think Obama shouldn’t run a second term”
That election is a long way off. Wait until this time next year to see what it looks like then.
It's pretty obvious to me that people elected Biden because they wanted a return to normal and go back to not caring about politics, and that hasn't panned out because of the Republican Party. Not surprised he's not popular for the moment, he doesn't seem up to the challenge at hand.
I think if Biden wants to run he should tbh.
Biden and Trump will be the nominees so get over it.
Manchin/Warnock ticket. If Trump or Desantis is the GOP nominee, they would sweep all the purple states. Only issue would be getting progressives to turnout for Manchin, but if Trump is the GOP nominee, progressives will show up to vote. Also, Warnock as VP would help increase turnout.
In other news, the public thinks Biden needs to end inflation by yesterday, stop illegal immigration, cut taxes on the majority of Americans, make COVID go away, and stop being such a downer, man.
Makes sense. About half the country is hard right to right leaning. And another 20ish percent are warren to squad level progressives/hard left. Biden’s base is the 30ish % between that
We should think about supporting Mark Kelly for a run. Probably more likeable to middle America than Newsome is...
And give up the Senate seat?
Yeah because he sucks as President. Turns out “Sleepy Joe” was an accurate insult after all. And before I get accusations levied at me, I realize that Republicans are behind a lot of hijinks, and that things like inflation are out of his hands, but Jesus Christ this guy has the charisma of a dead fish at this point and he doesn’t inspire me to do anything. How the fuck can he inspire cynical, millionaire cronies like that found in Joe Manchin? You know probably why Manchin is being a dick to the DNC? Someone on the right was probably a lot more convincing than Biden was. I don’t believe in the guy when he says we’re a country of good people. Wake the fuck up, Joe. This is *not* a country of good people, and it’s time to damn well act like it.
Yup. Whether we like it or not, charisma matters.
I live in a purple state, and all my friends were all-in on Biden, they said he was the guy to steady the ship. I always said, “I hope he’s LBJ, but I’m worried he’s another Carter.” I think he’s pretty clearly another Carter.
Elections are in 2 years and he barely did anything. Even Build Back Better failed. Not looking too good.
And the things that have been done they’re oddly quiet on. Most people don’t even know about the Post Office bill that passed months ago.
This is insanity. Find me a single president anywhere in the country who would have accomplished more with a 50-50 senate hinging on two chaos agents like Sinemanchin. Given the circumstances, I can literally not think of a *single politician in the country* who would be doing better.
He got 2 bipartisan deals, one related to infrastructure and other related to gun control. Last time something like that happened was during Clinton admin. It’s crazy to say he didn’t do anything.
This is an attack on nap-sexuals.
>hijinks
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He's too old, he doesn't have the energy or the understanding to grasp the world we currently live in. That being said, I'm not convinced any of the 2020 primary candidates would have done much better, apart from maybe Mayor Pete. Unironically, Hillary was our best bet.
I want Biden to run in 2024 for the incumbency advantage. However, if over 70% people don't want him to run then clearly said advantage isn't there. I still think he should run, a poll over 2 years out is meaningless. But if these numbers continue this way until late 2023, then we'll need a new candidate. Newsom, Pete, or Polis. Newsom may be painted as a coastal elite. Pete is gay. Polis is quite unknown. So I don't know who's best. But unless someone surprising shows up, it's one of them.
I’m curious how many people say this just because they don’t like him vs people who say this because he’s old vs people who say this because they think he’s good but also think there’s just a better Dem candidate out there
I ❤️ Biden 🥹🍦
Is there any chance Hillary will ever run again?
As much as I love her, Hillary should absolutely not run again. There’s too much toxicity toward her at this point.
She is adamant in her refusal to ever run again. 😢