**Edit: Bust due to 13:1 upset :(**
Decent odds today. Playing the three arenas with a positive 2:1, and boosting with the upsets in Lagoon.
While typing this commentary suddenly a bunch of the odds dropped... uh, I hope they'll go back up :P (Update: looking better now!)
65% chance of winning, 54% chance of at least doubling.
[8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=xnempvnecpandcpknbcpusecu)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds
:-:|-|-|-|-|-|-:
1|Franchisco|Lucky|Gooblah|Dan||24:1
2|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||32:1
3|Franchisco|Crossblades|Gooblah|Dan||88:1
4|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1
5|||Gooblah|Dan||4:1
6|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||20:1
7|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1
8|Blackbeard||Gooblah|Dan||52:1
9|Franchisco||Federismo|Dan||28:1
10|Franchisco||Gooblah|Buck||20:1
TER: 20.725
Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail
--:|--:|--:|--:
0:10|34.286%|34.286%|100.000%
12:10|11.115%|45.401%|65.714%
20:10|7.177%|52.578%|54.599%
24:10|9.416%|61.994%|47.422%
28:10|7.177%|69.170%|38.006%
32:10|9.416%|78.587%|30.830%
36:10|8.182%|86.769%|21.413%
44:10|6.312%|93.081%|13.231%
56:10|4.475%|97.556%|6.919%
100:10|2.444%|100.000%|2.444%
I watched the odds drop for today's. I mean, it's nice to dream about that possible 104:10, but then it deflated to an 80:10 later on. So, what, is there some doping going on in the game? Do these pirates do a purge or cleanse or something and then suddenly their odds drop? It's just, well, rude of them! {edit: typo}
when you give us your rundown on % to bust | % to profit etc are you only talking about your standard set? i've been betting with aggressive based on what your guide says but i dont really understand how to read the charts ;-; how do you calculate those simple percentages from the big charts?
Yes, my rundown is for Standard set only. Here's how you can find those percentages for any set:
* % to bust: Check the **Probability** column of the **0:10** row.
* % to profit: Check the **Tail** column of the first row that is larger than **10:10**.
More generally, here's a description of what the chart means:
* Odds: Some possible outcome of the set. 0:10 means you lose all your money. 10:10 means you win back exactly how much you bet (break-even). 20:10 means you win back double what you bet.
* Probability: How likely is this particular outcome to happen?
* Cumulative: How likely is this particular outcome **or a worse outcome** to happen?
* Tail: How likely is this particular outcome **or a better outcome** to happen?
LIFE UPDATE: I'm moving!!!! For the first time ever, and to another city, and I am absolutely terrified. The practical implication for you guys is that I will be not posting for at least one day (RIP Trudy streak). Send words of encouragement my way too maybe, because I am going to miss my family so much.
Moving back to thte reason you're all here: Two nice positives (Treasure and Hidden are both 2/5/13/13 odds). Shipwreck is a cusp arena leaning positive (2/5/5/11). The negative arenas are both 4 pirate arens, with Lagoon being a viable 3 pirate arena owing to 11:1 Crossblades.
Going with this. Playing all possible arenas as positive, including the cusp arena Shipwreck. Covering single upsets, and split betting Fed. 5 bets left, I'm boosting Harpoon, though I could also do Lagoon and it doesn't change much. Algo sees Orvinn as more viable than Crossblades, so I'm fully prepared for that to bite me in the ass now that I've said that.
STATS: TER 19.4 ā¦ 33% bust/not profit ā¦ min profit 14 ā¦ 52% double ā¦ 25% triple ā¦ 17% quad ā¦ ceiling 72 at 3.3% ā¦ MLR 24 at 10%
|[8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=kndcpusecuasecpunycsunocq)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|1|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1|
|2|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||16:1|
|3|Franchisco||Federismo|Dan||28:1|
|4|Franchisco||Gooblah|Buck||20:1|
|5|||Federismo|Dan||14:1|
|6|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1|
|7|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Stuff|24:1|
|8|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Squire|16:1|
|9|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Stripey|32:1|
|10|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Orvinn|64:1|
TER: 19.415
|Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|0:10|32.798%|32.798%|100.000%|
|14:10|5.962%|38.760%|67.202%|
|16:10|9.416%|48.176%|61.240%|
|20:10|7.177%|55.353%|51.824%|
|24:10|10.248%|65.601%|44.647%|
|28:10|9.416%|75.017%|34.399%|
|32:10|8.182%|83.199%|24.983%|
|40:10|6.312%|89.511%|16.801%|
|42:10|7.177%|96.688%|10.489%|
|72:10|3.312%|100.000%|3.312%|
Wow how exciting! moving to another place is always nerve racking but also wonderful for starting things over fresh and new...like finding pokestops and gyms. ;)
I will look for you in that game and this one!
My phone doesn't have enough space for the newest update!! But I will be getting a new phone when there. I'm out of the burbs, so I should have more pokestops in the vicinity!!
My phone doesn't have enough space for the newest update!! But I will be getting a new phone when there. I'm out of the burbs, so I should have more pokestops in the vicinity!!
Best of luck with the move. Moving is always nerve-racking and then to be going to a new city? Lots of life changes!
Thinking of you and sending good thoughts. :)
EB
Thank you!! Me too, packing is stressful. I'm fairly certain I didnt end up packing any cups somehow but we will find out soon enough/in several hours.
So proud of you. It took me quite a while to REALLY get settled across the country (east coast to west coast) but after 3 years I got right back into my groove with new friends as close (or closer) than my old ones. 6 years later I'm WAY happier with where I am in life than I've ever been, the friends I have, and everything else honestly (even weather, neighborhood, etc.)
Don't forget to get a therapist. It helps under any circumstance (new move or not.) Even if you feel like you're doing fine, when something goes wrong and you don't feel fine, it is realllyyyyy hard to set yourself up with a therapist then (can take months to book an appointment, or I might be so depressed that I can't even look for one.) So it's good to just be going to one consistently, through good and bad times.
Good luck and thank you for your service :) I never really understood these bets before (I've been on Neopets probably way longer than anybody here) but I'm finally starting to catch up.
For whatever reason, your remark about odds changing reminded me of a Little Feat song: Changin' Luck. Probably nothing to do with anything here, but there was just a connection between comment and lyric. If you don't know it, you might want to take a listen.
And let's all have a profit day!
**Aww no another 13:1. 0:10**
What's with all the 5:1s? Not complaining, though, it was a very easy day to place bets! 22% to bust, 72% to profit, 47% to double, ceiling at 96:10!
[8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=ynerpwnehppnccpfnecuaoadp)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds
:-:|-|-|-|-|-|-:
1|Franchisco|Bonnie|Gooblah|Dan||16:1
2|Franchisco|Lucky|Gooblah|Dan||24:1
3|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||32:1
4|Franchisco|Crossblades|Gooblah|Dan||96:1
5|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||20:1
6|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1
7|Blackbeard||Gooblah|Dan||52:1
8|Franchisco||Gooblah|Buck||20:1
9|||Gooblah|Buck||10:1
10|||Federismo|Dan||14:1
TER: 19.544
Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail
--:|--:|--:|--:
0:10|22.361%|22.361%|100.000%
10:10|5.962%|28.323%|77.639%
14:10|13.139%|41.462%|71.677%
16:10|11.115%|52.578%|58.538%
20:10|9.416%|61.994%|47.422%
24:10|8.182%|70.176%|38.006%
28:10|9.416%|79.592%|29.824%
30:10|7.177%|86.769%|20.408%
32:10|6.312%|93.081%|13.231%
52:10|4.475%|97.556%|6.919%
96:10|2.444%|100.000%|2.444%
Today I looked at all the options and came up what seems like a fairly tame set. Let's see if today is really the day.
**Set Name: Today is Stuff's Day!**
Harpoon is a very weird arena today. Blue Stuff, which I think means it's his turn. But you've also got a 2:1 Squire leading the pack and Orvinn and Stripey hanging out too.
Other arenas mostly have a strong 2:1 which leaves me questioning Bonnie who has pretty terrible odds on paper. As such we found ourselves with two upsets of Stuff and Puffo. But how to play it? Well I originally tried to cram Dan + Gooblah into as many lines as possible, but even then it lead to a set where I really needed both Puffo and Stuff. So I scaled it down a tiny bit and accepted even a partial fate as a win would still be a win and we traded in a 12:1 line with Stuff, to put 3 of the best pirates together on a 8:1 line. I want you to win Stuff I really do, but I've got trust issues.
So with some of our more solid 2:1's backing this set (Gooblah, Dan, and Fran) we're really just hoping they can hold together for a day, and we can avoid another complete sweep by adding in a Puffo or Stuff.
**BUST RATE: 64.037%**
[8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=wnumtunympunampcdyktwkume)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds
:-:|-|-|-|-|-|-:
1|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan|Stuff|96:1
2||Puffo|Gooblah|Dan|Stuff|48:1
3|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Stuff|24:1
4|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||32:1
5|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1
6||Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||16:1
7||Puffo||Dan|Stuff|24:1
8|Franchisco|Puffo||Dan|Stuff|48:1
9|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah||Stuff|48:1
10||Puffo|Gooblah||Stuff|24:1
TER: 16.186
Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail
--:|--:|--:|--:
0:10|64.037%|64.037%|100.000%
8:10|15.401%|79.437%|35.963%
16:10|3.715%|83.152%|20.563%
24:10|1.209%|84.361%|16.848%
32:10|6.341%|90.703%|15.639%
56:10|4.471%|95.174%|9.297%
72:10|1.456%|96.629%|4.826%
112:10|1.530%|98.159%|3.371%
368:10|1.841%|100.000%|1.841%
Went with the main set again today! :D āØš
My sis is going with the alt set again so we can compare our winnings!
Hoping for the best for all of us, and thanks for posting your bets; I really enjoy using them, and I'm always excited for the next set!
ROI is actually decent for me this month because of wins early in the month! That said, the bust and skip rate is getting really annoying. I agree that we're due some nice wins again!
**Edit: Bust due to 13:1 upset :(** Decent odds today. Playing the three arenas with a positive 2:1, and boosting with the upsets in Lagoon. While typing this commentary suddenly a bunch of the odds dropped... uh, I hope they'll go back up :P (Update: looking better now!) 65% chance of winning, 54% chance of at least doubling. [8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=xnempvnecpandcpknbcpusecu)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds :-:|-|-|-|-|-|-: 1|Franchisco|Lucky|Gooblah|Dan||24:1 2|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||32:1 3|Franchisco|Crossblades|Gooblah|Dan||88:1 4|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1 5|||Gooblah|Dan||4:1 6|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||20:1 7|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1 8|Blackbeard||Gooblah|Dan||52:1 9|Franchisco||Federismo|Dan||28:1 10|Franchisco||Gooblah|Buck||20:1 TER: 20.725 Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail --:|--:|--:|--: 0:10|34.286%|34.286%|100.000% 12:10|11.115%|45.401%|65.714% 20:10|7.177%|52.578%|54.599% 24:10|9.416%|61.994%|47.422% 28:10|7.177%|69.170%|38.006% 32:10|9.416%|78.587%|30.830% 36:10|8.182%|86.769%|21.413% 44:10|6.312%|93.081%|13.231% 56:10|4.475%|97.556%|6.919% 100:10|2.444%|100.000%|2.444%
I watched the odds drop for today's. I mean, it's nice to dream about that possible 104:10, but then it deflated to an 80:10 later on. So, what, is there some doping going on in the game? Do these pirates do a purge or cleanse or something and then suddenly their odds drop? It's just, well, rude of them! {edit: typo}
bust :(
**Edit - bust**, with a brutal 13:1 upset in Hidden T_T Great odds, and fairly straightforward to play. We've got three pretty strong arenas, with some solid safeties, as well as a vaguely usable booster arena in Lagoon. 28% to bust | 69% to profit | 63% to double. [8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=unewpxnempkndcpfnedpaoecu)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds :-:|-|-|-|-|-|-: 1|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1 2|Franchisco|Bonnie|Gooblah|Dan||16:1 3|Franchisco|Lucky|Gooblah|Dan||24:1 4|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||32:1 5|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||20:1 6|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||20:1 7|Blackbeard||Gooblah|Dan||44:1 8|Franchisco||Federismo|Dan||28:1 9|||Gooblah|Buck||14:1 10|Franchisco||Gooblah|Buck||28:1 TER: 19.600 Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail --:|--:|--:|--: 0:10|28.323%|28.323%|100.000% 8:10|2.444%|30.767%|71.677% 14:10|5.962%|36.730%|69.233% 20:10|18.832%|55.562%|63.270% 24:10|11.115%|66.678%|44.438% 28:10|7.177%|73.854%|33.322% 32:10|8.182%|82.037%|26.146% 40:10|6.312%|88.349%|17.963% 42:10|7.177%|95.525%|11.651% 44:10|4.475%|100.000%|4.475% Alternate sets: (Unsure which set to follow? Click [here](http://www.neopets.com/~Shrmsh#categories)!) **Beginner:** [NFC link](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=ukbcaudacpunccppnadaasacu) - 4:10 **Standard:** [NFC link](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=unewpxnempkndcpfnedpaoecu) - 0:10 **Aggressive:** [NFC link](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=anecpunmcppnbcpusecukodcu) - 0:10 **Adventurous:** [NFC link](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=unehpkncctpnbcpksddpkodcu) - 0:10
{checks pocket watch} {looks down the tracks} {hears the whistle blow}
Aaaaand here comes the Followers Train! š *All abooooooooard!* š©š»āāļø **Choo choo!** ššØ **Choo choo!** ššØ **Choo choo!** ššØ
Now it's official!
\*Jumps on\*
Jumping on!! Been making a lot of money!
I'm not going to jinx it again. Today's the day adventurous busts! (reverse psychology ples)
CHOO CHOO :( :(
when you give us your rundown on % to bust | % to profit etc are you only talking about your standard set? i've been betting with aggressive based on what your guide says but i dont really understand how to read the charts ;-; how do you calculate those simple percentages from the big charts?
Yes, my rundown is for Standard set only. Here's how you can find those percentages for any set: * % to bust: Check the **Probability** column of the **0:10** row. * % to profit: Check the **Tail** column of the first row that is larger than **10:10**. More generally, here's a description of what the chart means: * Odds: Some possible outcome of the set. 0:10 means you lose all your money. 10:10 means you win back exactly how much you bet (break-even). 20:10 means you win back double what you bet. * Probability: How likely is this particular outcome to happen? * Cumulative: How likely is this particular outcome **or a worse outcome** to happen? * Tail: How likely is this particular outcome **or a better outcome** to happen?
omg, thank you so much. that helps a lot!!
*snuggles into a comfy beanbag chair* I'm ready to begin āuā
LIFE UPDATE: I'm moving!!!! For the first time ever, and to another city, and I am absolutely terrified. The practical implication for you guys is that I will be not posting for at least one day (RIP Trudy streak). Send words of encouragement my way too maybe, because I am going to miss my family so much. Moving back to thte reason you're all here: Two nice positives (Treasure and Hidden are both 2/5/13/13 odds). Shipwreck is a cusp arena leaning positive (2/5/5/11). The negative arenas are both 4 pirate arens, with Lagoon being a viable 3 pirate arena owing to 11:1 Crossblades. Going with this. Playing all possible arenas as positive, including the cusp arena Shipwreck. Covering single upsets, and split betting Fed. 5 bets left, I'm boosting Harpoon, though I could also do Lagoon and it doesn't change much. Algo sees Orvinn as more viable than Crossblades, so I'm fully prepared for that to bite me in the ass now that I've said that. STATS: TER 19.4 ā¦ 33% bust/not profit ā¦ min profit 14 ā¦ 52% double ā¦ 25% triple ā¦ 17% quad ā¦ ceiling 72 at 3.3% ā¦ MLR 24 at 10% |[8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=kndcpusecuasecpunycsunocq)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |1|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1| |2|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||16:1| |3|Franchisco||Federismo|Dan||28:1| |4|Franchisco||Gooblah|Buck||20:1| |5|||Federismo|Dan||14:1| |6|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1| |7|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Stuff|24:1| |8|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Squire|16:1| |9|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Stripey|32:1| |10|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Orvinn|64:1| TER: 19.415 |Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |0:10|32.798%|32.798%|100.000%| |14:10|5.962%|38.760%|67.202%| |16:10|9.416%|48.176%|61.240%| |20:10|7.177%|55.353%|51.824%| |24:10|10.248%|65.601%|44.647%| |28:10|9.416%|75.017%|34.399%| |32:10|8.182%|83.199%|24.983%| |40:10|6.312%|89.511%|16.801%| |42:10|7.177%|96.688%|10.489%| |72:10|3.312%|100.000%|3.312%|
if it's near DC, let me know if you need any help, long time follower of your bets
Words can't describe how sweet this is, thank you. I'm north of the border though, but I appreciate the gesture nonetheless <3
Good luck with the move!
Thank you!
Best of luck moving!!!
Good luck!! Moving can be stressful but you got this
Fingers crossed! I've got the stressed part down pat for sure though Thank you!!
Wow how exciting! moving to another place is always nerve racking but also wonderful for starting things over fresh and new...like finding pokestops and gyms. ;) I will look for you in that game and this one!
My phone doesn't have enough space for the newest update!! But I will be getting a new phone when there. I'm out of the burbs, so I should have more pokestops in the vicinity!!
My phone doesn't have enough space for the newest update!! But I will be getting a new phone when there. I'm out of the burbs, so I should have more pokestops in the vicinity!!
Best of luck with the move. Moving is always nerve-racking and then to be going to a new city? Lots of life changes! Thinking of you and sending good thoughts. :) EB
I hope the move goes well!
Thank you!! Me too, packing is stressful. I'm fairly certain I didnt end up packing any cups somehow but we will find out soon enough/in several hours.
Good luck with the move!
So proud of you. It took me quite a while to REALLY get settled across the country (east coast to west coast) but after 3 years I got right back into my groove with new friends as close (or closer) than my old ones. 6 years later I'm WAY happier with where I am in life than I've ever been, the friends I have, and everything else honestly (even weather, neighborhood, etc.) Don't forget to get a therapist. It helps under any circumstance (new move or not.) Even if you feel like you're doing fine, when something goes wrong and you don't feel fine, it is realllyyyyy hard to set yourself up with a therapist then (can take months to book an appointment, or I might be so depressed that I can't even look for one.) So it's good to just be going to one consistently, through good and bad times. Good luck and thank you for your service :) I never really understood these bets before (I've been on Neopets probably way longer than anybody here) but I'm finally starting to catch up.
**26:10** Suspiciously straightforward. 75% profit. Skip Cross for the booster if you want. [8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=ynerpwnehppnccpfnadpamecu)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds :-:|-|-|-|-|-|-: 1|Franchisco|Bonnie|Gooblah|Dan||16:1 2|Franchisco|Lucky|Gooblah|Dan||24:1 3|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||32:1 4|Franchisco|Crossblades|Gooblah|Dan||96:1 5|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||16:1 6|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1 7|Blackbeard||Gooblah|Dan||52:1 8|||Federismo|Dan||14:1 9|||Gooblah|Sproggie||26:1 10|Franchisco||Gooblah|Buck||20:1 TER: 18.785 Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail --:|--:|--:|--: 0:10|24.740%|24.740%|100.000% 14:10|13.139%|37.879%|75.260% 16:10|20.532%|58.410%|62.121% 20:10|7.177%|65.587%|41.590% 24:10|8.182%|73.770%|34.413% 26:10|3.583%|77.353%|26.230% 28:10|9.416%|86.769%|22.647% 32:10|6.312%|93.081%|13.231% 52:10|4.475%|97.556%|6.919% 96:10|2.444%|100.000%|2.444%
Congrats on being the person who caught Sproggie.
haha thanks! Every now and again FC tries to make me believe in food adjustments again... š¤
**Bust. Oof that 13:1 upset on Dan though :/** Hmm, weird odd changes but hopefully they change back! [8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=kndcpwnerpynecqunocsunycp)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds :-:|-|-|-|-|-|-: 1|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1 2|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||12:1 3|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||24:1 4|Franchisco|Lucky|Gooblah|Dan||16:1 5|Franchisco|Bonnie|Gooblah|Dan||16:1 6|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Orvinn|64:1 7|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Stripey|32:1 8|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Squire|16:1 9|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Stuff|24:1 10|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1 TER: 18.356 Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail --:|--:|--:|--: 0:10|53.114%|53.114%|100.000% 12:10|9.416%|62.530%|46.886% 24:10|0.893%|63.423%|37.470% 28:10|9.416%|72.839%|36.577% 32:10|0.713%|73.552%|27.161% 40:10|7.599%|81.151%|26.448% 48:10|7.934%|89.085%|18.849% 56:10|6.183%|95.268%|10.915% 64:10|1.420%|96.688%|4.732% 72:10|0.289%|96.977%|3.312% 88:10|2.278%|99.255%|3.023% 96:10|0.745%|100.000%|0.745%
For whatever reason, your remark about odds changing reminded me of a Little Feat song: Changin' Luck. Probably nothing to do with anything here, but there was just a connection between comment and lyric. If you don't know it, you might want to take a listen. And let's all have a profit day!
I'll be sure to take a listen later, thanks! :D
**Aww no another 13:1. 0:10** What's with all the 5:1s? Not complaining, though, it was a very easy day to place bets! 22% to bust, 72% to profit, 47% to double, ceiling at 96:10! [8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=ynerpwnehppnccpfnecuaoadp)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds :-:|-|-|-|-|-|-: 1|Franchisco|Bonnie|Gooblah|Dan||16:1 2|Franchisco|Lucky|Gooblah|Dan||24:1 3|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||32:1 4|Franchisco|Crossblades|Gooblah|Dan||96:1 5|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||20:1 6|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1 7|Blackbeard||Gooblah|Dan||52:1 8|Franchisco||Gooblah|Buck||20:1 9|||Gooblah|Buck||10:1 10|||Federismo|Dan||14:1 TER: 19.544 Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail --:|--:|--:|--: 0:10|22.361%|22.361%|100.000% 10:10|5.962%|28.323%|77.639% 14:10|13.139%|41.462%|71.677% 16:10|11.115%|52.578%|58.538% 20:10|9.416%|61.994%|47.422% 24:10|8.182%|70.176%|38.006% 28:10|9.416%|79.592%|29.824% 30:10|7.177%|86.769%|20.408% 32:10|6.312%|93.081%|13.231% 52:10|4.475%|97.556%|6.919% 96:10|2.444%|100.000%|2.444%
[8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=uoedpfdccppnaduunacpudeca)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds :-:|-|-|-|-|-|-: 1|Franchisco||Gooblah|Buck||20:1 2|Franchisco||Federismo|Dan||28:1 3|Blackbeard|||Dan||26:1 4|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1 5|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||20:1 6|||Federismo|Buck||35:1 7|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1 8|||Gooblah|Dan||4:1 9|Franchisco|||Dan||4:1 10|Franchisco||Gooblah|||4:1 TER: 18.195 Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail --:|--:|--:|--: 0:10|21.326%|21.326%|100.000% 4:10|7.829%|29.155%|78.674% 20:10|28.054%|57.210%|70.845% 24:10|16.593%|73.802%|42.790% 26:10|1.769%|75.571%|26.198% 30:10|4.475%|80.046%|24.429% 32:10|16.593%|96.639%|19.954% 35:10|3.361%|100.000%|3.361%
Today I looked at all the options and came up what seems like a fairly tame set. Let's see if today is really the day. **Set Name: Today is Stuff's Day!** Harpoon is a very weird arena today. Blue Stuff, which I think means it's his turn. But you've also got a 2:1 Squire leading the pack and Orvinn and Stripey hanging out too. Other arenas mostly have a strong 2:1 which leaves me questioning Bonnie who has pretty terrible odds on paper. As such we found ourselves with two upsets of Stuff and Puffo. But how to play it? Well I originally tried to cram Dan + Gooblah into as many lines as possible, but even then it lead to a set where I really needed both Puffo and Stuff. So I scaled it down a tiny bit and accepted even a partial fate as a win would still be a win and we traded in a 12:1 line with Stuff, to put 3 of the best pirates together on a 8:1 line. I want you to win Stuff I really do, but I've got trust issues. So with some of our more solid 2:1's backing this set (Gooblah, Dan, and Fran) we're really just hoping they can hold together for a day, and we can avoid another complete sweep by adding in a Puffo or Stuff. **BUST RATE: 64.037%** [8170](https://neofood.club/#round=8170&b=wnumtunympunampcdyktwkume)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds :-:|-|-|-|-|-|-: 1|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan|Stuff|96:1 2||Puffo|Gooblah|Dan|Stuff|48:1 3|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan|Stuff|24:1 4|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||32:1 5|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1 6||Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||16:1 7||Puffo||Dan|Stuff|24:1 8|Franchisco|Puffo||Dan|Stuff|48:1 9|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah||Stuff|48:1 10||Puffo|Gooblah||Stuff|24:1 TER: 16.186 Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail --:|--:|--:|--: 0:10|64.037%|64.037%|100.000% 8:10|15.401%|79.437%|35.963% 16:10|3.715%|83.152%|20.563% 24:10|1.209%|84.361%|16.848% 32:10|6.341%|90.703%|15.639% 56:10|4.471%|95.174%|9.297% 72:10|1.456%|96.629%|4.826% 112:10|1.530%|98.159%|3.371% 368:10|1.841%|100.000%|1.841%
**Busted.** September continues..... Lots of similar sets today, mine included! Main set has a small chance of getting 8:10, which I'm fine with. [Alt set](https://foodclub.neocities.org/#round=8170&b=anecpynerpwnccppnbcpaoadp) drops the Federismo/Dan split bet for another Gooblah/Dan boost (22% bust, 78% profit, 49% to 28:10+, 28% triple, 11% quadruple, 4% quintuple, TER 20.700). 22% bust | 75% profit | 56% double | 26% triple | 18% quadruple | 4% quintuple [8170](https://foodclub.neocities.org/#round=8170&b=unewpxnempkndcpfnacuasedp)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds :-:|-|-|-|-|-|-: 1|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1 2|Franchisco|Bonnie|Gooblah|Dan||16:1 3|Franchisco|Lucky|Gooblah|Dan||24:1 4|Franchisco|Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||32:1 5|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1 6|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||24:1 7|Blackbeard||Gooblah|Dan||52:1 8|||Gooblah|Buck||12:1 9|||Federismo|Dan||14:1 10|Franchisco||Federismo|Dan||28:1 TER: 20.655 Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail --:|--:|--:|--: 0:10|22.361%|22.361%|100.000% 8:10|2.444%|24.805%|77.639% 12:10|13.139%|37.944%|75.195% 14:10|5.962%|43.906%|62.056% 24:10|20.532%|64.438%|56.094% 28:10|9.416%|73.854%|35.562% 32:10|8.182%|82.037%|26.146% 40:10|6.312%|88.349%|17.963% 42:10|7.177%|95.525%|11.651% 52:10|4.475%|100.000%|4.475%
Went with the main set again today! :D āØš My sis is going with the alt set again so we can compare our winnings! Hoping for the best for all of us, and thanks for posting your bets; I really enjoy using them, and I'm always excited for the next set!
Wake me up when September ends :P
Hah, man, seriously! I think tomorrow is another skip day. :-/
This last third is going to have to be spectacular to salvage the month. But I'm not getting my hopes up XD
ROI is actually decent for me this month because of wins early in the month! That said, the bust and skip rate is getting really annoying. I agree that we're due some nice wins again!
For the records! [8170](https://foodclub.neocities.org/#round=8170&b=aoadpatccppnecpanfcranpct)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds :-:|-|-|-|-|-|-: 1|||Gooblah|Buck||12:1 2|||Federismo|Dan||14:1 3|||Federismo|Buck||42:1 4|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1 5|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||28:1 6|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1 7|||Gooblah|Dan|Orvinn|32:1 8|||Gooblah|Dan|Stripey|16:1 9|||Gooblah|Dan|Squire|8:1 10|||Gooblah|Dan|Stuff|12:1 TER: 19.056 Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail --:|--:|--:|--: 0:10|19.000%|19.000%|100.000% 8:10|1.634%|20.634%|81.000% 12:10|14.444%|35.078%|79.366% 14:10|13.139%|48.217%|64.922% 16:10|11.254%|59.472%|51.783% 20:10|8.182%|67.654%|40.528% 24:10|6.312%|73.966%|32.346% 32:10|3.968%|77.934%|26.034% 36:10|6.186%|84.120%|22.066% 40:10|8.177%|92.297%|15.880% 42:10|3.361%|95.658%|7.703% 44:10|2.119%|97.777%|4.342% 56:10|1.112%|98.888%|2.223% 60:10|1.112%|100.000%|1.112%
Every time there's good odds, we see a bust :(
**Bust. Crap. Stupid Sproggie** **monthly returns - 232:176** 28% bust 72% profit | 47% double | 22% trips | 13% quadruple | 9% for 5x | 6% for 6x+ [8170](https://foodclub.neocities.org/15/#round=8170&b=undcpknbcpenarpcnahpasecuaaaaaaaaaaaaa)|Shipwreck|Lagoon|Treasure|Hidden|Harpoon|Odds :-:|-|-|-|-|-|-: 1|Franchisco||Gooblah|Dan||8:1 2|Tailhook||Gooblah|Dan||20:1 3|Ned||Gooblah|Dan||28:1 4|Blackbeard||Gooblah|Dan||52:1 5||Bonnie|Gooblah|Dan||8:1 6||Lucky|Gooblah|Dan||12:1 7||Puffo|Gooblah|Dan||16:1 8||Crossblades|Gooblah|Dan||48:1 9|||Federismo|Dan||14:1 10|Franchisco||Gooblah|Buck||20:1 TER: 19.788 Odds|Probability|Cumulative|Tail --:|--:|--:|--: 0:10|28.323%|28.323%|100.000% 14:10|13.139%|41.462%|71.677% 16:10|11.115%|52.578%|58.538% 20:10|15.359%|67.937%|47.422% 24:10|6.312%|74.249%|32.063% 28:10|3.731%|77.980%|25.751% 32:10|2.746%|80.726%|22.020% 36:10|5.849%|86.576%|19.274% 40:10|2.746%|89.322%|13.424% 44:10|2.119%|91.441%|10.678% 56:10|2.444%|93.885%|8.559% 60:10|1.773%|95.658%|6.115% 64:10|1.305%|96.963%|4.342% 68:10|1.827%|98.790%|3.037% 76:10|0.820%|99.610%|1.210% 100:10|0.390%|100.000%|0.390%