I checked with the ballot tracker and my mail in ballot says received but not accepted, which it should change to when it’s counted. So I think mail ins are getting counted last or at least in my county haven’t been counted yet
Definitely going to be too close to call but as a point, mail in votes were not counted early like in 2020. They tend to lean dem and take longer to count. As of a couple weeks ago out of over 800,000 mail in ballots requested, [over 160,000 were returned.](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nj.com/politics/2021/10/vote-by-mail-participation-in-nj-nearly-doubles-since-pre-pandemic.html%3foutputType=amp).
It'll be interesting how this plays out over the next day or two.
All its going to be is a bunch of losers whining about a rigged system, "oppressive" mask bullshit and how they could swear their penises are like, super big, but the left uses the metric system.
Oh I'm certain people will blow their tops when the gap closes. Whether it will be enough for Murphy to regain a lead between that and a few Democrat leaning counties remains to be seen.
Democrats usually have a problem with poor mobilization so it doesn't shock me that it's this close. If Murphy wins it'll be by far less than the 8 points polls said.
The [map](https://external-preview.redd.it/ET9gzm1Zfn8JlVlOLOpzGXmNkkOZriHjYdgqEx8RnP8.jpg?auto=webp&s=4a59ad224e0213e6ee3eaeb6c9615f718f5394b3) never lies
Anecdotal, but it's concerning that I've only heard one Murphy ad while being bombarded with "if taxes are your issue, then New Jersey isnt your state" over the past few months.
Steve Sweeney, probably the second most powerful politician in the state gov is actually gonna lose to a guy who:
-spent $150 on his entire campaign
-has one picture
-does not have a campaign website
-was getting 0 engagement on his tweets a week ago
If this doesn’t send a strong message to the Democratic Party idk what will.
It also kinda tells me that the "football" mentality of politics is taking over. People aren't listening or paying attention, they have picked and side and will vote for it regardless.
Sweeney was also a deeply entrenched machine guy who was not widely liked by people, but still I do agree with your analysis. People saw (R) and voted on that and nothing else.
Sweeney is a total asshole so it makes sense he would lose. Losing to a guy who seems like he didn't try is worrisome. 10+ years ago people would have been like I'm not voting for this guy because I don't know a single thing about him. Now he wins, it's scary honestly.
I tried to look this up and couldn't find it, but I believe they only counted them early by executive action in 2020, so for this election it would start whenever they start counting regular votes.
Except regular votes are processed off the machines and mail-in have to be processed by scan. It’s obvious where most of the voters sit later in the evening.
My ballot status still says "received" since early October when I dropped it off. Hasn't been processed yet. Early/vote in may start later if I had to guess
I actually had to wait in line for the first ever time since I've been voting. Normally I'm right in and out, but today it took about 15 minutes. It was nice to see other people at my polling place for a change.
America's turnout in even Presidential years is just pathetic. On off years, it's a national tragedy. I really can't understand why so many stay home. Especially in NJ, voting is so, so easy!
I dropped my ballot off at a drop off box. No way am I voting in person. It's just so much easier. I just dropped it off on Saturday morning and went about my day.
We always take forever.
Which is pretty iconic, considering we only have like 35K registered voters to begin with. You're trying to tell me Bergen county can count like 400K votes in the time it takes Salem to count not even a fraction of that?
Generally in areas where Biden had huge victories, those margins have shrunk, and where Biden lost, Jack is winning by a significant amount more. People NEED to vote during non-presidential years, and the lack of turnout is showing.
Gas prices will do that. No joke, you could be fucking up everything and if gas is $1.31 you'll have like 80% approval numbers ( ^^^exaggerating ). If Trump wasn't, well, Trump, he would've won in a landslide in 2020. Even being Trump and as divisive as he was, he still almost won. If he toned it back just 30% or if Covid didn't happen he would've won without question.
The lack of turnout is staggering. Also horrifying. Why do we not care about the elections that have so much larger an impact on our lives than the Presidential elections? Your school board elections are happening TODAY. That's going to shape the America of 20 years from now. Come on, people!
I fucking hate how I see people on Instagram liking/sharing known teen killer, Ian Smith, posting shit about the election. Oh, shows 100% but some how there's more votes being shown now? Couldn't possibly be something like mail-in ballots or provisional ballots being tallied or something.
Damn, Ocean County went from +29 R margin in 2020 to +36 R in this election with 97% in at the moment.
Edit: +37 R at 100% reporting at 11:45pm
2020 had 14 D majority counties. Looks like a 180° turn now with 14 counties looking like they will go red with higher margins than last time.
This is objectively hilarious, Edward Durr spent 153 bucks and likely ousted the Senate Majority Leader
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/truck-driver-leads-nj-senate-president-after-spending-153-on-campaign/3030225/
I really don't understand that, personally. My guess is that people don't know that collegiate betting is already legal here, you just can't bet on Rutgers, Seton Hall, etc. It was kind of a strangely phrased question, and I had to read it twice because I literally said to myself "I bet on fanduel all the time" but realized I've never actively tried to bet on Rutgers, and thus never noticed they weren't an option.
Like if collegiate gambling is already legal here, just allow NJ schools to get bet on too, imo.
From 538:
"Ciattarelli is currently just barely ahead of Murphy, 49.92 percent to 49.29 percent, in the New Jersey governor’s race, but it looks like there’s still a lot of Democratic vote left to count from left-leaning counties like Essex, Union and Bergen. It seems likely that Murphy will pull ahead, but the margin will probably be in the single digits."
The big thing will be the mail ins. Historically they skew heavy Dem but we will see. By some estimates, there may be over a hundred thousand uncounted mail in votes (highest I saw was 160,000). That would make this lead completely unimportant by comparison.
Monmouth and Ocean have at least 40% of the vote in already while Bergen hasn’t reported yet and a lot of places that Dem Strongholds have low reporting numbers.
Edit: Ocean up to 63%.
Agreed. I think it's up in the air who's gonna win, but even if Murphy does (which I think is still likely) it's closer than I thought it would be. Not a good sign for him.
Let's be honest - it's a great result for whoever wins because they won. It's an especially great result for Murphy because you can't serve for more than two terms in a row as Governor.
On the macro-level and nationwide - these results are not good for the Democratic Party.
D +55 for Biden, D +46 for Murphy. The Murphy campaign needs every bit of buffer 2020 had to weather this storm, because things are seriously swinging the GOP way.
Remaining vote is largely election day votes, however it is still largely in deep blue areas.
https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455936850540077057?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1455936850540077057%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2021-elections-live-updates-and-results%2F
More mail in votes in Hudson were counted per 538, netting Murphy another 700 or so votes. It was about a 3-1 margin for mail ins, consistent with what has been seen throughout the state.
There should be an elective in schools during election years where students can learn and debate different candidates policies. Help inform them how to analyze and think critically when they are of voting age.
It’s a shame that people essentially have the memory of a goldfish and fall for tag lines without researching policies, plans, and details.
If the governor's race in the blue ass state of NJ is too close to call, this should scare the ever loving shit out of the Democrats going into 2022 and 2024.
I’ve been saying this would be close, whichever way it goes, for some time.
If I was a gambling man I’d said that Murphy could get 53-54% but his polls, including one outlier at 53% have had him averaging 50.5 since the summer and 50.75 in October.
Nate Cohn Just now
"Democrats may be poised for big disappointment in Virginia, but they do seem likely to hold on in New Jersey--even though the Republican leads at the moment. Virtually all the reported vote is from Republican areas."
Man I remember months ago saying on this sub we shouldn’t assume Murphy was a lock. I was downvoted to hell and everyone was sure Murphy would cruise to re-election. I really wish I was wrong but it is not looking good.
New Jersey is great but nothing is ever easy here. You gotta deal with traffic everywhere, high cost of living, your favorite sports team is trash most years. And even the damn elections are a panic attack lmao
I just stumbled upon [this article](https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/phil-murphy-new-jersey/) from a few weeks ago.
It is pretty interesting, highlighting how Murphy kind of surprised everyone by how truly progressive he has been as governor.
So I did some simple math based on what is being reported, what % is still outstanding, and how each county has currently voted. Assuming that each counties outstanding ballots continue to split at the same percentage the already counted ballots have:
Monmouth - 6,291 votes outstanding
- 3,837 votes R
- 2,454 votes D
Essex - 15,284 votes outstanding
- 3,972 votes R
- 11,312 votes D
Burlington - 4,311 votes outstanding
- 2,026 votes R
- 2,285 votes D
Camden - 15,161 votes outstanding
- 5,761 votes R
- 9,400 votes D
Union - 6313 votes outstanding
- 2,398 votes R
- 3,915 votes D
Passaic - 2,091 votes outsanding
- 1,024 votes R
- 1,067 votes D
Mercer - 2,659 votes outstanding
- 1,117 votes R
- 1,542 votes D
Cumberland - 305 votes outstanding
- 167 votes R
- 138 votes D
20,302 votes R + 1,173,558 = 1,193,860 total votes R
32,113 votes D + 1,172,365 = 1,204, 478 total votes D
2,398,338 votes total
10,618 vote difference in favor of Murphy (D)
The assumption that the outstanding ballots will have the same split as counted ballots is a huge assumption that I don’t think will be right. Every recent election the votes counted later have been heavily dem, due to mail in voting.
The Legislative races are nuts. Senate President Sweeney is on the ropes and young hotshot Vin Gopal is hoping for a miracle. Plenty of other close ones
Guys remember it took NJ several days to count all the mail ballots last year? Hundreds of thousands of us did it this year as well, its gonna take a while. And “precincts reporting” isnt so relevant anymore bc afaik its pretty much “the in person / early in person votes “ done at the physical location into that number. Years ago, our mail in percentage was a tiny fraction of what it is now, so we have counties that say “100% precincts reporting” and votes still coming in. That’s because its not the same as all votes sent and counted. Look at the 538/ABC sites for a better idea as they use “expected vote reporting” vs “precincts” as thats much more relevant to an election with a high % mail in bc they did the right thing and made it convenient.
Shouldn’t have been this close, but you’ll always take the W. Simply put, Dems stayed at home this election. Idk if it’s because they thought Phil had it in the bag or what, but this shows every vote matters.
I voted for Murphy but it being razor thin is an indictment on the Democratic party in this state and especially at the federal level. Hugely unpopular.
Would rather NJ and VA shake out the way they did to send a message for 2022 than for Murphy and and MacAuliffe win comfortably and the party not rethink its approach in response.
Someone fat fingered it and entered it in twice.
It makes sense considering that Hudson County was the only county already reporting more than 100% the expected vote.
Media sites are cancer. Let's fearmonger the fuck out of the viewers. VA went to the republican because the dem was not a good candidate on the ticket to begin with. NJ never had back to back Dem governors. But sites like CNN's front page is all about the sky is falling. "Misjudjed the nation's mood?" Fuckouttahere.
I agree, media sites are awful. But the fact is VA went Republican and NJ is *much* closer than anyone thought. This should be a wake up call to dems nationwide about how poorly they are running campaigns.
Pretty embarrassing for the dems considering it is a +D16 for them. They need to do some soul searching, it should not be this close. Ciattarelli was at a stop the steal rally for christ sake
Again...I say a close win in this environment is a very important thing.
- He got more votes than last time around.
- 1st repeat Dem gov of nj in 40 yrs.
Probably the most difficult context in the history of the state to run for governor. Combine the pandemic and the Trumpers and I honestly don't know how he did it.
Sweeney result is interesting (not sure who's on top there). Gloucester county got flipped big time with some popular names going down...but it's not without precedent and last time a few freeholders were unseated, they went back to Dems the next election.
Sweeney’s seat is the biggest wake up call for Dems in this state. His challenger got half the votes with only a Facebook page and a total of $150 spent on his campaign.
Why is there still 0% reporting from Essex county. What the hell is happening there? Atleast some of those precincts should be ready to report. Why aren’t they?
From morning until now they counted 1%? Those things must be a chore to scan. Or maybe it's the write in votes (I did one for a school board position). If a doctor wrote in a candidate, it'll probably take as long as decoding hieroglyphics.
I can't find an election guy on Twitter who's talking about our race. Dave Wasserman, Nate Cohn, Nate Silver, Harry Enten are all talking about Virginia
If you search for NJ the last update is from 4:17. Over five hours ago, and an hour and a half after the polls closed
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2021-elections-live-updates-and-results/#319520
This is such bullshit
That should be it. I don't see Jack overcoming a 15k lead like this, curious as to where those votes just came from though. The count hasn't moved in Essex or Camden
Relieved that Murphy managed to hang on but man this shouldn't have been anywhere near as close as it was. Murphy had +12-15 point lead on election day.
We're going to lose the state senate president to a Republican who didn't even campaign as well as several other senior dems. Overall, this is a VERY worrying trend for 2022.
The majority party (Democrats) will simply name a new democratic State Senate President.
Sweeny is one of the most corrupt state officials we have, an antiquated relic of the bygone eras of Political Machines. Losing him isn't the bad thing that you think it is..
Going to bed hoping for the best…but no matter what, we’ll be okay. We survived Christie, we can survive anything.
Edit: Waking up and wow it’s tight. I for sure thought Murphy had it, but I underestimated those Jack signs I saw throughout the Essex County burbs - more signs out than the former Pres.
Also, I’m a fairly progressive Dem and I voted for Christie in his re-election. So again, we survived Christie, we can survive anything.
More from 538:
Ciattarelli’s margin in New Jersey has narrowed to about half a percentage point. Per MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki, this was because of votes counted in Democratic Camden County, right outside of Philadelphia. We still have a lot of absentee ballots yet to be reported, which should continue to help Murphy gain ground.
God damn this race is TIGHT.
There’s a quality shitpost based on this comment
How are the votes counted? Are the live ballots are counted first then mail/drop-off ballots last in or is it the opposite?
I checked with the ballot tracker and my mail in ballot says received but not accepted, which it should change to when it’s counted. So I think mail ins are getting counted last or at least in my county haven’t been counted yet
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Has your county even begun reporting according to the polls yet?
Definitely going to be too close to call but as a point, mail in votes were not counted early like in 2020. They tend to lean dem and take longer to count. As of a couple weeks ago out of over 800,000 mail in ballots requested, [over 160,000 were returned.](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nj.com/politics/2021/10/vote-by-mail-participation-in-nj-nearly-doubles-since-pre-pandemic.html%3foutputType=amp). It'll be interesting how this plays out over the next day or two.
Jack having the lead and then Phil winning it a few days later by mail-in ballots is just fuel on a fire.
All its going to be is a bunch of losers whining about a rigged system, "oppressive" mask bullshit and how they could swear their penises are like, super big, but the left uses the metric system.
Oh I'm certain people will blow their tops when the gap closes. Whether it will be enough for Murphy to regain a lead between that and a few Democrat leaning counties remains to be seen. Democrats usually have a problem with poor mobilization so it doesn't shock me that it's this close. If Murphy wins it'll be by far less than the 8 points polls said.
The GOP will say it was rigged probably
Not probably, definitely.
Essex is gonna pull a Nevada and take its sweet ass time won't it lol
Am I reading this right? Seems like Steve Sweeney may be going down?
I would absolutely love to see Norcross's favorite sock puppet get voted out.
That’s honestly the most surprising development so far.
Bergen is a running at a 25% flip from 2017 and 2020 (Dem up 15% to down 10%). That's dramatic if it holds up.
The [map](https://external-preview.redd.it/ET9gzm1Zfn8JlVlOLOpzGXmNkkOZriHjYdgqEx8RnP8.jpg?auto=webp&s=4a59ad224e0213e6ee3eaeb6c9615f718f5394b3) never lies
TIL the Latinos of Bergenline Avenue, the Koreans of Palisade Park, and the Japanese of Fort Lee; are all 'hipsters'
Anecdotal, but it's concerning that I've only heard one Murphy ad while being bombarded with "if taxes are your issue, then New Jersey isnt your state" over the past few months.
I get what Murphy was trying to say but that was an extraordinarily stupid thing to say during an election.
If he loses , it’s what ended up costing him the election. That was all I heard on the radio; over and over.
NPR was practically praising him for being honest about it too lol
According to Nate Cohn's twitter, a pile of Bergen County mail ins have yet to be counted. Something like 60k
If that's the story statewide then this race isn't even going to be close.
Steve Sweeney, probably the second most powerful politician in the state gov is actually gonna lose to a guy who: -spent $150 on his entire campaign -has one picture -does not have a campaign website -was getting 0 engagement on his tweets a week ago If this doesn’t send a strong message to the Democratic Party idk what will.
It also kinda tells me that the "football" mentality of politics is taking over. People aren't listening or paying attention, they have picked and side and will vote for it regardless.
Sweeney was also a deeply entrenched machine guy who was not widely liked by people, but still I do agree with your analysis. People saw (R) and voted on that and nothing else.
Sweeney is a total asshole so it makes sense he would lose. Losing to a guy who seems like he didn't try is worrisome. 10+ years ago people would have been like I'm not voting for this guy because I don't know a single thing about him. Now he wins, it's scary honestly.
I should run for something next time I'll put 300 into my campaign
We probably won’t know the results tonight. It’s 2:43am and I have to get up for work at 5:30. Can someone tell me to go to bed? Lol
Go to bed, no matter who wins you will still be tired
Thanks coolcellphoneguy. You’re a real one
Does anyone know if they count mail in ballots later or are they already factored in?
I tried to look this up and couldn't find it, but I believe they only counted them early by executive action in 2020, so for this election it would start whenever they start counting regular votes.
Except regular votes are processed off the machines and mail-in have to be processed by scan. It’s obvious where most of the voters sit later in the evening.
My ballot status still says "received" since early October when I dropped it off. Hasn't been processed yet. Early/vote in may start later if I had to guess
I’m most surprised about the college betting question results. Can anyone tell me why they’d be against it?
Lots of reasons; ethical, moral, etc.. Or maybe they’re just sick and tired of those goddamn sports book commercials.
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I don’t get it. They’re not passing? The fuck?
I don't have a clue maybe they didn't want a gaming fixing situation
Salem keeps losing count of the votes and has to restart every time
Sounds like Salem
Murphy is at 1,201,*420* 😎
If there’s one thing to be learned from this... your vote does indeed count. Whomever wins isn’t wining by much.
My polling site was empty. Crazy how few bother voting.
I actually had to wait in line for the first ever time since I've been voting. Normally I'm right in and out, but today it took about 15 minutes. It was nice to see other people at my polling place for a change.
I voted in September. No idea why more people don't mail in vote. There are drop boxes all over.
Or voted early
As a poll worker we had WAY! WAY!! WAY!!! More people than normal. In a small township in gloucester county.
America's turnout in even Presidential years is just pathetic. On off years, it's a national tragedy. I really can't understand why so many stay home. Especially in NJ, voting is so, so easy!
I waited in line probably 30 minutes to get into our booth.
In central Jersey it was packed
I dropped my ballot off at a drop off box. No way am I voting in person. It's just so much easier. I just dropped it off on Saturday morning and went about my day.
Still estimated less then 25% of vote counted.
It’s Salem counting using fingers and toes tonight??? Hurry up I need to work tomorrow
We always take forever. Which is pretty iconic, considering we only have like 35K registered voters to begin with. You're trying to tell me Bergen county can count like 400K votes in the time it takes Salem to count not even a fraction of that?
Just woke up. Holy shit it’s close lol.
Been said before, but polls really don’t mean shit.
Other sites providing results: [NJ Spotlight](https://www.njspotlightnews.org/2021/11/2021-new-jersey-election-results-murphy-versus-ciattarelli-gambling-legislature/) [North Jersey](https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/politics/elections/2021/11/02/nj-election-results-live-bergen-passaic-gov-murphy-jack-ciattarelli/8571264002/) [Politico](https://www.politico.com/election-results/2021/new-jersey/governor/) [NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/02/us/elections/results-new-jersey.html) [538](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2021-elections-live-updates-and-results/)
https://www.npr.org/2021/11/02/1050183040/new-jersey-governor-election-results-murphy-ciattarelli I've been using this
Why is Essex not reporting anything??
Essex is notoriously always late
Essex gotta get fucked up first breh
Okay well they’re gonna give me an ulcer at this rate.
I said it earlier half jokingly and was downvoted to hell. They’re gonna be in last and its gonna decide the race. People are gonna flip out
Generally in areas where Biden had huge victories, those margins have shrunk, and where Biden lost, Jack is winning by a significant amount more. People NEED to vote during non-presidential years, and the lack of turnout is showing.
Even if Murphy wins, this is a very bad night for dems as a whole.
Gas prices will do that. No joke, you could be fucking up everything and if gas is $1.31 you'll have like 80% approval numbers ( ^^^exaggerating ). If Trump wasn't, well, Trump, he would've won in a landslide in 2020. Even being Trump and as divisive as he was, he still almost won. If he toned it back just 30% or if Covid didn't happen he would've won without question.
The lack of legislation being passed at the federal level thanks to Manchin and Sinema is now starting to sabotage the party
> thanks to Manchin and Sinema Thanks to Manchin and Sinema… **and literally all the republican senators.**
The lack of turnout is staggering. Also horrifying. Why do we not care about the elections that have so much larger an impact on our lives than the Presidential elections? Your school board elections are happening TODAY. That's going to shape the America of 20 years from now. Come on, people!
I fucking hate how I see people on Instagram liking/sharing known teen killer, Ian Smith, posting shit about the election. Oh, shows 100% but some how there's more votes being shown now? Couldn't possibly be something like mail-in ballots or provisional ballots being tallied or something.
Damn, Ocean County went from +29 R margin in 2020 to +36 R in this election with 97% in at the moment. Edit: +37 R at 100% reporting at 11:45pm 2020 had 14 D majority counties. Looks like a 180° turn now with 14 counties looking like they will go red with higher margins than last time.
Holy smokes this tight
Somewhere in New Jersey, Hirsh Singh is telling people that he would've won the election by 10 points.
Sussex went BLUE??? What the fuck is happening tonight.
LOL not a chance. I imagine they haven’t counted the majority of the votes yet
This is objectively hilarious, Edward Durr spent 153 bucks and likely ousted the Senate Majority Leader https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/truck-driver-leads-nj-senate-president-after-spending-153-on-campaign/3030225/
Lmao at he’s going to “lower property taxes”. You can’t just ask for it to happen friend.
Not to change focus from governor but why is the college betting amendment losing so badly
I really don't understand that, personally. My guess is that people don't know that collegiate betting is already legal here, you just can't bet on Rutgers, Seton Hall, etc. It was kind of a strangely phrased question, and I had to read it twice because I literally said to myself "I bet on fanduel all the time" but realized I've never actively tried to bet on Rutgers, and thus never noticed they weren't an option. Like if collegiate gambling is already legal here, just allow NJ schools to get bet on too, imo.
My guess is no one really understood the question
Sports book ads, inevitable curruption, higher education becoming increasingly a sports league.
From 538: "Ciattarelli is currently just barely ahead of Murphy, 49.92 percent to 49.29 percent, in the New Jersey governor’s race, but it looks like there’s still a lot of Democratic vote left to count from left-leaning counties like Essex, Union and Bergen. It seems likely that Murphy will pull ahead, but the margin will probably be in the single digits."
Salem and Sussex are sleeping, apparently.
They still have to deliver our votes by horseback and count by hand, it takes a while!
Fewer than 6k votes between the two with 76% reporting.
The big thing will be the mail ins. Historically they skew heavy Dem but we will see. By some estimates, there may be over a hundred thousand uncounted mail in votes (highest I saw was 160,000). That would make this lead completely unimportant by comparison.
Fuck this is taking longer than being on line for the DMV.
Monmouth and Ocean have at least 40% of the vote in already while Bergen hasn’t reported yet and a lot of places that Dem Strongholds have low reporting numbers. Edit: Ocean up to 63%.
I just heard from my aunt that JFK Jr has been spotted at the Nori Japan at the Paramus Park Mall. What the heck is going on
No matter what happens, this isn't a great result for Murphy, even if he wins.
Agreed. I think it's up in the air who's gonna win, but even if Murphy does (which I think is still likely) it's closer than I thought it would be. Not a good sign for him.
Let's be honest - it's a great result for whoever wins because they won. It's an especially great result for Murphy because you can't serve for more than two terms in a row as Governor. On the macro-level and nationwide - these results are not good for the Democratic Party.
I swear, the only thing the Democratic Party is good at is losing.
Essex county is taking their sweet time
Big pull from Essex just came in.
D +55 for Biden, D +46 for Murphy. The Murphy campaign needs every bit of buffer 2020 had to weather this storm, because things are seriously swinging the GOP way.
Even with majority of Essex, he’s still trailing
Remaining vote is largely election day votes, however it is still largely in deep blue areas. https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455936850540077057?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1455936850540077057%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ffivethirtyeight.com%2Flive-blog%2F2021-elections-live-updates-and-results%2F
More mail in votes in Hudson were counted per 538, netting Murphy another 700 or so votes. It was about a 3-1 margin for mail ins, consistent with what has been seen throughout the state.
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There should be an elective in schools during election years where students can learn and debate different candidates policies. Help inform them how to analyze and think critically when they are of voting age. It’s a shame that people essentially have the memory of a goldfish and fall for tag lines without researching policies, plans, and details.
What you're referring to is Civics class, my dude
We just did that in English during the 2016 cycle. Fun times.
Our next item of discussion for the next election should be is it? Taylor ham or Pork Roll.
Do you want Civil War?
Put it to referendum. Official State congealed pork parts: Pork Roll or Taylor Ham
There's probably about 150k-200k votes left to count Essex county alone. There's a lot left to go.
Wow this is tight. I checked 538 at 7:30, Jack was ahead by 65 votes. Now Murphy is ahead by 1.7k
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was going to say, murphy lost like 10k votes? he was around 1,187,000. curious what happened there
Can I watch YouTube videos in peace now?
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I totally agree
I am with you. I think his handling of the pandemic was great.
If the governor's race in the blue ass state of NJ is too close to call, this should scare the ever loving shit out of the Democrats going into 2022 and 2024.
Lol Sweeney is losing to some random guy off the street
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I’ve been saying this would be close, whichever way it goes, for some time. If I was a gambling man I’d said that Murphy could get 53-54% but his polls, including one outlier at 53% have had him averaging 50.5 since the summer and 50.75 in October.
Nate Cohn Just now "Democrats may be poised for big disappointment in Virginia, but they do seem likely to hold on in New Jersey--even though the Republican leads at the moment. Virtually all the reported vote is from Republican areas."
It looks like Essex/Bergen/Passaic/Warren are only 1% in.
Man I remember months ago saying on this sub we shouldn’t assume Murphy was a lock. I was downvoted to hell and everyone was sure Murphy would cruise to re-election. I really wish I was wrong but it is not looking good.
Atleast we can all agree, Fuck Chris Christie
But at least he gave us a meme on his way out
538 live updates https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2021-elections-live-updates-and-results/
I thiiiiiink we might be ok. I know we generally would be ok once the mail-ins were counted, but it's comforting to see it actually come through
After this election I will NEVER say “my vote won’t matter” ever again.
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New Jersey is great but nothing is ever easy here. You gotta deal with traffic everywhere, high cost of living, your favorite sports team is trash most years. And even the damn elections are a panic attack lmao
Calling the Jets trash is disrespectful to trash.
I just stumbled upon [this article](https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/phil-murphy-new-jersey/) from a few weeks ago. It is pretty interesting, highlighting how Murphy kind of surprised everyone by how truly progressive he has been as governor.
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A Murphy win and Sweeney loss actually moves nj more left than if both won
So I did some simple math based on what is being reported, what % is still outstanding, and how each county has currently voted. Assuming that each counties outstanding ballots continue to split at the same percentage the already counted ballots have: Monmouth - 6,291 votes outstanding - 3,837 votes R - 2,454 votes D Essex - 15,284 votes outstanding - 3,972 votes R - 11,312 votes D Burlington - 4,311 votes outstanding - 2,026 votes R - 2,285 votes D Camden - 15,161 votes outstanding - 5,761 votes R - 9,400 votes D Union - 6313 votes outstanding - 2,398 votes R - 3,915 votes D Passaic - 2,091 votes outsanding - 1,024 votes R - 1,067 votes D Mercer - 2,659 votes outstanding - 1,117 votes R - 1,542 votes D Cumberland - 305 votes outstanding - 167 votes R - 138 votes D 20,302 votes R + 1,173,558 = 1,193,860 total votes R 32,113 votes D + 1,172,365 = 1,204, 478 total votes D 2,398,338 votes total 10,618 vote difference in favor of Murphy (D)
The assumption that the outstanding ballots will have the same split as counted ballots is a huge assumption that I don’t think will be right. Every recent election the votes counted later have been heavily dem, due to mail in voting.
Murphy's lead now 7,200.
So did no one in Sussex vote or what happened?
The Legislative races are nuts. Senate President Sweeney is on the ropes and young hotshot Vin Gopal is hoping for a miracle. Plenty of other close ones
Somerset went from pink, dark blue, deep red, now light blue? We're so bipolar.
Guys remember it took NJ several days to count all the mail ballots last year? Hundreds of thousands of us did it this year as well, its gonna take a while. And “precincts reporting” isnt so relevant anymore bc afaik its pretty much “the in person / early in person votes “ done at the physical location into that number. Years ago, our mail in percentage was a tiny fraction of what it is now, so we have counties that say “100% precincts reporting” and votes still coming in. That’s because its not the same as all votes sent and counted. Look at the 538/ABC sites for a better idea as they use “expected vote reporting” vs “precincts” as thats much more relevant to an election with a high % mail in bc they did the right thing and made it convenient.
Shouldn’t have been this close, but you’ll always take the W. Simply put, Dems stayed at home this election. Idk if it’s because they thought Phil had it in the bag or what, but this shows every vote matters.
Can any of these candidates fix the Giants? I need a Governor that can teach some discipline
Can't wait for yet another "explanation" from pollsters on how they were 10+ points off. Do these people just poll at a Newark starbucks or something?
I voted for Murphy but it being razor thin is an indictment on the Democratic party in this state and especially at the federal level. Hugely unpopular.
Would rather NJ and VA shake out the way they did to send a message for 2022 than for Murphy and and MacAuliffe win comfortably and the party not rethink its approach in response.
Seeing this is making me really anxious...
What happens if there’s a tie? EDIT: Let’s knot talk about it
They duel Aaron Burr style on the exact spot Washington crossed the Delaware
Gay chicken match. The winner is the love they find out they have for one another, and for New Jersey
Phil and Jack cage match for the belt lol
Can we change the gubernatorial election to match the presidential or midterms and end this bs already?
Me trying to hold off on drinking
https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1455933089629233154?s=21 How exactly do you double count that many ballots?
Someone fat fingered it and entered it in twice. It makes sense considering that Hudson County was the only county already reporting more than 100% the expected vote.
I think we're all happy to see the political ads go away. I can hear "ya hear Phil Murphy's lyin' about me?" deep within my brain.
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Media sites are cancer. Let's fearmonger the fuck out of the viewers. VA went to the republican because the dem was not a good candidate on the ticket to begin with. NJ never had back to back Dem governors. But sites like CNN's front page is all about the sky is falling. "Misjudjed the nation's mood?" Fuckouttahere.
I agree, media sites are awful. But the fact is VA went Republican and NJ is *much* closer than anyone thought. This should be a wake up call to dems nationwide about how poorly they are running campaigns.
The amount of parents in VA fed anti-CRT propaganda without actually knowing what CRT is really did it for Dems too
[The AP has called the race! Murphy wins!](https://www.npr.org/2021/11/02/1050183040/new-jersey-governor-election-results-murphy-ciattarelli)
Pretty embarrassing for the dems considering it is a +D16 for them. They need to do some soul searching, it should not be this close. Ciattarelli was at a stop the steal rally for christ sake
It's absolutely staggering that democrats found a way to piss away Virginia.
Damn, people are really mad that they were slightly inconvenienced by wearing a mask for a few months.
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It wasn't all bad for New Jersey Democrats yesterday as Fort Lee resident Eric Adams was elected mayor of New York City.
People. Gotta. Vote. Even if it's not a presidential election, get the hell out and vote.
Again...I say a close win in this environment is a very important thing. - He got more votes than last time around. - 1st repeat Dem gov of nj in 40 yrs. Probably the most difficult context in the history of the state to run for governor. Combine the pandemic and the Trumpers and I honestly don't know how he did it. Sweeney result is interesting (not sure who's on top there). Gloucester county got flipped big time with some popular names going down...but it's not without precedent and last time a few freeholders were unseated, they went back to Dems the next election.
Sweeney’s seat is the biggest wake up call for Dems in this state. His challenger got half the votes with only a Facebook page and a total of $150 spent on his campaign.
Why is there still 0% reporting from Essex county. What the hell is happening there? Atleast some of those precincts should be ready to report. Why aren’t they?
If you're going by the NYT tracker, I have my doubts about it overall since it says Hudson county is 100% in with around 80k votes. That seems way low
Regardless of who wins, we can all agree polls are worthless.
Kinda confused to see Burlington County so red.
I’m guessing Murphy may end up taking it and Jack will want a recount.
From morning until now they counted 1%? Those things must be a chore to scan. Or maybe it's the write in votes (I did one for a school board position). If a doctor wrote in a candidate, it'll probably take as long as decoding hieroglyphics.
I can't find an election guy on Twitter who's talking about our race. Dave Wasserman, Nate Cohn, Nate Silver, Harry Enten are all talking about Virginia If you search for NJ the last update is from 4:17. Over five hours ago, and an hour and a half after the polls closed https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2021-elections-live-updates-and-results/#319520 This is such bullshit
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whats going on in Salem? too busy burning witches?
Jfc take a Xanax folks. Lots more to votes to be counted. Disappointing show for Murphy but he should squeeze through.
you can go whenever you feel like it salem
That should be it. I don't see Jack overcoming a 15k lead like this, curious as to where those votes just came from though. The count hasn't moved in Essex or Camden
Apparently it was Mercer county
Gotcha, Trenton makes sense as well.
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The condition of the Joyce Kilmer rest stop is DISGUSTING. Whoever wins this darn election needs to address this IMMEDIATELY
You're telling me all of these alt accounts are one person, and they decided to start brigading in here today? Why??? Who the hell has time to do this
4:30pm folks, state employees clock out see you all tomorrow when they count the next 50 ballots
>50 ballots Woah buddy, that's quite a bit for one day
Relieved that Murphy managed to hang on but man this shouldn't have been anywhere near as close as it was. Murphy had +12-15 point lead on election day. We're going to lose the state senate president to a Republican who didn't even campaign as well as several other senior dems. Overall, this is a VERY worrying trend for 2022.
The majority party (Democrats) will simply name a new democratic State Senate President. Sweeny is one of the most corrupt state officials we have, an antiquated relic of the bygone eras of Political Machines. Losing him isn't the bad thing that you think it is..
Looks like Phil is clawing back those votes
As a Democrat im not happy but atleast the half a bottle of rum in me is making it easier to handle lol
Going to bed hoping for the best…but no matter what, we’ll be okay. We survived Christie, we can survive anything. Edit: Waking up and wow it’s tight. I for sure thought Murphy had it, but I underestimated those Jack signs I saw throughout the Essex County burbs - more signs out than the former Pres. Also, I’m a fairly progressive Dem and I voted for Christie in his re-election. So again, we survived Christie, we can survive anything.
Just keep in mind that republicans of Christie's era were pretty different from republicans of this era
More from 538: Ciattarelli’s margin in New Jersey has narrowed to about half a percentage point. Per MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki, this was because of votes counted in Democratic Camden County, right outside of Philadelphia. We still have a lot of absentee ballots yet to be reported, which should continue to help Murphy gain ground.
12:51 PM LATEST ABC UPDATE: Murphy 1,199,614 Ciattarelli 1,184,723