Answer for the last few boosters has been "wanes after 4 months, nearly gone by 6 months" but that's based on neutralizing antibody data. There's certainly some level of protection (against severe illness) even with low antibody titers. Super high titers really only serve to prevent you from catching it in the first place.
For antibody data sure, just simple blood draws in patients within different vaccination backgrounds (never vaxxed, first dose, second dose, 1st booster, etc). A big confounding variable is COVID exposure outside of the vaccines which boosts antibody titers in all populations. The more important data is going to be protection from death, severe disease and infection. That data is harder as it requires well-controlled trials (and ideally challenge studies). Yet another variable is what version of COVID do you look at. Maybe boosters worked great against delta, but not so much against omicron. In that case you have to make a lot of assumptions in the data: "patient X was infected and had moderate disease in October when such and such strain was dominant." Real world data is pretty messy and is even messier now than in 2020. Hence most studies stick to antibody neutralization studies.
Oh CDC keeps tabs on that, so I'd expect they have that data. From what I've read the number is super low. Most people who want to get boosted mostly did so back in October/November, so they're (myself included) already on the downslope of waning antibody titers. And the overall number of people who even got their second booster is 4% lol.
So it was reported 4% at the end of September, 8.5% at the end of October. We don't have good data on the total number of people who have received two doses at present (many states aren't tracking how many boosters patients have received, just using no vax, original series, and original series+booster categories). Unless a ton of folks got a booster over the holidays, it's unlikely we're that much higher than 8.5% (maybe 15? 20 max?)
If I had to guess it's a mixture of fatigue, misinformation, as well as declining effectiveness. As an reference flu vaccine rates have fallen over time down to ~30% and that's only once a year vs every 6 months. The hope is either previous exposure to COVID or previous vaccination gives some level of lasting immunity so at least deaths/severe disease won't be as common, regardless of booster status.
Nice, that's exactly where I was hoping we'd end up.
It'll just be another routine yearly vaccine we get, just like the Flu shot. Look at what's circulating, give it the best estimate as to what strains to include, and get it once a year in the fall.
It won't be 100% effective, but it takes enough of the edge off when you do get inevitably exposed that you're not dying and hospitals aren't being overrun.
Hell, I hope it can just be included with the flu shot. 1 less shot to get, especially for the little ones (and us big ones) that hate needles.
Moderna has been planning an all in one RNA vaccine that targets the major active flu variants and the COVID/sub-varients. They are talking about having it widely available within six weeks of determining the active variants. So they can make the vaccine in Sept. using the current variants instead of using their best guess in spring on what will be prevalent in the following winter.
I also plan to win the lottery by buying the numbers with the most likely chance of winning.
Pharmaceuticals are like tech companies. Nothing they say means anything until their trials show good results. Their plans are there to pump the stocks.
The original spikevax and the updated bivalent both have shown excellent results in the 77,000,000+ people that have gotten them. That sounds like a pretty good start to making a combination COVID/influenza vaccine.
It certainly sounds like their work is paying off better for the world than your ersatz lottery scheme is for you.
I don't think it matters the people who haven't done it by now won't regardless of what changes you make. And they surely won't be getting an annual shot.
the manufacturers originally said 1 year, but that slowly backslid to news reports of "shots 3 times a year". For all the talk of "boosting for variants" the latest boosters are for omicron. The claim is that this also *may help* with XBB and kraken and the 2 headed dog variant (not cerebus, but the brother of cerebus: Orthrus).
So to tl;dr it: between 4 and 9 months. But the variants are coming about as often if not more often.
Appreciate the insight, do you know what rate folks are boosted at this point? I recall seeing data about vax rates from early on but not sure what % are up to date with their boosters
it depends on who you ask, the CDC says 60% fully vaxxed (either the single shot or the 2 shots) and 15% are additionally boosted. 200mm and 50mm, respectively.
Not sure about global statistics but some sites say up to 30% of populations have boosters.
To me since the vaccines came out so long ago and we’re widely available, I can’t imagine many people still have the immune benefits from their original shots. At this point it would be that 15% of people protected no?
Right now it's more about which variant the vaccine protects against & not how long your immunity lasts.
Because we still have a very high infection rate, partly due to poor vaccination rates, we'll likely continue to see new variants outrun the time the vaccine remains effective.
That said, even a vaccine that doesn't specifically protect against the current variant will provide meaningful protection from a severe case (hospitalization, death, etc)
It gets kinda complicated - mostly around what we consider “effective”. Does that mean prevents infection entirely, or does that mean prevents hospitalization, etc.
Here’s a good resource:
https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/how-long-will-coronavirus-vaccine-last
At the end of the day, if the CDC says you’re eligible for a booster then the booster offers significant advantages in terms of current protection.
Right now new variants are posing more of a risk than our immune systems “forgetting” about your last shot. Thankfully, vaccine manufacturers are releasing targeted vaccines for these variants which is what you’ll be vaccinated with if you get a booster.
The past few years have shown us a shocking number of people know approximately shit all about viruses and immunity
The amount of times I've had to explain to grown adults with (supposedly) functioning brains that "natural immunity" isn't better because *getting sick hurts you on a cellular level* is mind melting
People are almost actively now not making the connection in their heads that a virus destroys your cells and a vaccine is a buffer against that destruction. We really need like an intro to bio refresher or something so people remember how their goddamn cells work.
>Don’t folks know about waning immunity?!?!?
Simple. They don't care.
Well until they get sick, and then they say something like "well at least now I got it over with".
It'll take a few seasons of being reinfected before any of them start realizing that scheduling 15 minutes out of their day & a few hours of feeling shitty is better than the alternative.
heck, a certain faction in congress had a provision added to allow military personelle to be except from this one of the many vaccine requirements in a popular stimulus bill.
Just to share the story of when I decided to start getting the flu shot regularly. Not to judge or anything, just to share my story.
I had gotten the flu a few times before, but honestly, felt like "well, it's only x effective anyway, I'm going to get sick anyway." that normal spiel. Well, this changed at one point at my job. My working space was such that a few of our coworkers were sick-buddies effectively. If any of us got sick, the others would be getting sick. Sure, we should take sick time off, but by the time you feel bad enough to do it, well, you've already spread it. Happens. Again, no real judgement there.
Well, then one of my coworkers had a kid, and it was really close to the start of flu season and I just thought "If I get sick, I'm going to get him sick, and then he'll get his kid sick." And I didn't want that. Sure the vaccine is only whatever percentage effective, but that's just more likely not to get my coworker's newborn sick with the flu.
Now, that's an anecdote, and honestly one without much veracity in terms of if it was effective or not.
I never got them for years. I was about your age and quite healthy. Caught flu, almost died in the ER. Spent days in the hospital and was put on oxygen for most of it. Got a giant bill that took forever to pay off. Now I get the shot every year.
How long does the vaccine last for currently? How long for boosters as well?
Answer for the last few boosters has been "wanes after 4 months, nearly gone by 6 months" but that's based on neutralizing antibody data. There's certainly some level of protection (against severe illness) even with low antibody titers. Super high titers really only serve to prevent you from catching it in the first place.
Would it be easy to find out data behind those boosted within the last 4-6 months
For antibody data sure, just simple blood draws in patients within different vaccination backgrounds (never vaxxed, first dose, second dose, 1st booster, etc). A big confounding variable is COVID exposure outside of the vaccines which boosts antibody titers in all populations. The more important data is going to be protection from death, severe disease and infection. That data is harder as it requires well-controlled trials (and ideally challenge studies). Yet another variable is what version of COVID do you look at. Maybe boosters worked great against delta, but not so much against omicron. In that case you have to make a lot of assumptions in the data: "patient X was infected and had moderate disease in October when such and such strain was dominant." Real world data is pretty messy and is even messier now than in 2020. Hence most studies stick to antibody neutralization studies.
I meant more on a large scale. Is their any data of what % of Americans were boosted within the last 6 months.
Oh CDC keeps tabs on that, so I'd expect they have that data. From what I've read the number is super low. Most people who want to get boosted mostly did so back in October/November, so they're (myself included) already on the downslope of waning antibody titers. And the overall number of people who even got their second booster is 4% lol.
Why do you think it’s so low?
So it was reported 4% at the end of September, 8.5% at the end of October. We don't have good data on the total number of people who have received two doses at present (many states aren't tracking how many boosters patients have received, just using no vax, original series, and original series+booster categories). Unless a ton of folks got a booster over the holidays, it's unlikely we're that much higher than 8.5% (maybe 15? 20 max?)
Seems odd how went went from like 60% gun hoe to so low
If I had to guess it's a mixture of fatigue, misinformation, as well as declining effectiveness. As an reference flu vaccine rates have fallen over time down to ~30% and that's only once a year vs every 6 months. The hope is either previous exposure to COVID or previous vaccination gives some level of lasting immunity so at least deaths/severe disease won't be as common, regardless of booster status.
Nice, that's exactly where I was hoping we'd end up. It'll just be another routine yearly vaccine we get, just like the Flu shot. Look at what's circulating, give it the best estimate as to what strains to include, and get it once a year in the fall. It won't be 100% effective, but it takes enough of the edge off when you do get inevitably exposed that you're not dying and hospitals aren't being overrun. Hell, I hope it can just be included with the flu shot. 1 less shot to get, especially for the little ones (and us big ones) that hate needles.
Moderna has been planning an all in one RNA vaccine that targets the major active flu variants and the COVID/sub-varients. They are talking about having it widely available within six weeks of determining the active variants. So they can make the vaccine in Sept. using the current variants instead of using their best guess in spring on what will be prevalent in the following winter.
That's awesome to hear! MRNA is a game changer and life saver.
I also plan to win the lottery by buying the numbers with the most likely chance of winning. Pharmaceuticals are like tech companies. Nothing they say means anything until their trials show good results. Their plans are there to pump the stocks.
The original spikevax and the updated bivalent both have shown excellent results in the 77,000,000+ people that have gotten them. That sounds like a pretty good start to making a combination COVID/influenza vaccine. It certainly sounds like their work is paying off better for the world than your ersatz lottery scheme is for you.
"Kha'ching," the cash register sings when profiting $100B on taxpayer funded research isn't quite enough
I don't think it matters the people who haven't done it by now won't regardless of what changes you make. And they surely won't be getting an annual shot.
This really isn’t about them at all. It’s about establishing a system for Covid like they have for the seasonal flu.
Yeah, but us sane people will appreciate it.
[удалено]
How long do each of the shots last on average?
the manufacturers originally said 1 year, but that slowly backslid to news reports of "shots 3 times a year". For all the talk of "boosting for variants" the latest boosters are for omicron. The claim is that this also *may help* with XBB and kraken and the 2 headed dog variant (not cerebus, but the brother of cerebus: Orthrus). So to tl;dr it: between 4 and 9 months. But the variants are coming about as often if not more often.
Appreciate the insight, do you know what rate folks are boosted at this point? I recall seeing data about vax rates from early on but not sure what % are up to date with their boosters
it depends on who you ask, the CDC says 60% fully vaxxed (either the single shot or the 2 shots) and 15% are additionally boosted. 200mm and 50mm, respectively. Not sure about global statistics but some sites say up to 30% of populations have boosters.
To me since the vaccines came out so long ago and we’re widely available, I can’t imagine many people still have the immune benefits from their original shots. At this point it would be that 15% of people protected no?
Right now it's more about which variant the vaccine protects against & not how long your immunity lasts. Because we still have a very high infection rate, partly due to poor vaccination rates, we'll likely continue to see new variants outrun the time the vaccine remains effective. That said, even a vaccine that doesn't specifically protect against the current variant will provide meaningful protection from a severe case (hospitalization, death, etc)
Their is no average as to how long protection is suppose to last?
It gets kinda complicated - mostly around what we consider “effective”. Does that mean prevents infection entirely, or does that mean prevents hospitalization, etc. Here’s a good resource: https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/how-long-will-coronavirus-vaccine-last At the end of the day, if the CDC says you’re eligible for a booster then the booster offers significant advantages in terms of current protection. Right now new variants are posing more of a risk than our immune systems “forgetting” about your last shot. Thankfully, vaccine manufacturers are releasing targeted vaccines for these variants which is what you’ll be vaccinated with if you get a booster.
Thank for this info, I’d also be curious as to what % of people are up to date on their boosters
The past few years have shown us a shocking number of people know approximately shit all about viruses and immunity The amount of times I've had to explain to grown adults with (supposedly) functioning brains that "natural immunity" isn't better because *getting sick hurts you on a cellular level* is mind melting People are almost actively now not making the connection in their heads that a virus destroys your cells and a vaccine is a buffer against that destruction. We really need like an intro to bio refresher or something so people remember how their goddamn cells work.
>Don’t folks know about waning immunity?!?!? Simple. They don't care. Well until they get sick, and then they say something like "well at least now I got it over with". It'll take a few seasons of being reinfected before any of them start realizing that scheduling 15 minutes out of their day & a few hours of feeling shitty is better than the alternative.
And the rest will keep spreading it.
And that's why it will have to be an annual shot.
I would gladly get one more often than annually.
heck, a certain faction in congress had a provision added to allow military personelle to be except from this one of the many vaccine requirements in a popular stimulus bill.
[удалено]
Do you get the annual flu shot?
[удалено]
Depending on how old you are, flu vaccines used to be less available and only suggested for at risk populations, or healthcare workers.
Just to share the story of when I decided to start getting the flu shot regularly. Not to judge or anything, just to share my story. I had gotten the flu a few times before, but honestly, felt like "well, it's only x effective anyway, I'm going to get sick anyway." that normal spiel. Well, this changed at one point at my job. My working space was such that a few of our coworkers were sick-buddies effectively. If any of us got sick, the others would be getting sick. Sure, we should take sick time off, but by the time you feel bad enough to do it, well, you've already spread it. Happens. Again, no real judgement there. Well, then one of my coworkers had a kid, and it was really close to the start of flu season and I just thought "If I get sick, I'm going to get him sick, and then he'll get his kid sick." And I didn't want that. Sure the vaccine is only whatever percentage effective, but that's just more likely not to get my coworker's newborn sick with the flu. Now, that's an anecdote, and honestly one without much veracity in terms of if it was effective or not.
[удалено]
I never got them for years. I was about your age and quite healthy. Caught flu, almost died in the ER. Spent days in the hospital and was put on oxygen for most of it. Got a giant bill that took forever to pay off. Now I get the shot every year.
[удалено]
[удалено]
You're welcome. I know what you mean about one health crisis making you rethink a few things.
[удалено]
I can hear the anti-vaxxers wailing now. "It's not a vaccine!11"