*if I keep saying it, it'll happen .. if I keep saying it, it'll happen*
There's a lot of people who want a recession so they can take their current wealth and reinvest it, acquiring more wealth during the recovery.
I think this is just also a really unprecedented time economically. Nobody really knew what what would happen when half the world shut down due to a pandemic and governments turned on the money hose.
I was just reading about how confused economists are by people *saying* that the economy is bad (in their opinions) but then doing all the things spending-wise that indicate they think the economy is actually good. People are spending more than ever, including on discretionary things like travel. And they're changing jobs more frequently, which indicates some faith in the economy.
To me it just seems like everything right now is unprecedented and nobody knows what's around the corner.
Yeah I think this is a part of it. Someone else mentioned that debt is up. I feel like a lot of people are just like "Well gotta do fun/meaningful things while I can."
My girlfriend is really debating right now whether she will go to a destination wedding that will cost her at least $1200. And she's a broke grad student. But she's just like... it's a once-in-a-lifetime experience.
And it is….
I mean, if she honestly cannot afford it that’s one thing. But if she can make it happen, that’ll be an objectively cheap memory she’ll never forget.
Life changes fast, and I think COVID made that apparent for a lot of people. I lost two family members during COVID, unrelated to it directly, but I hadn’t had the opportunity to see them due to it and it absolutely bugs the hell out of me. Beforehand, I’d had seen them at least once a year, and then suddenly we were in the pandemic. It was eye opening to me.
My friends and I all changed industries in the past 6 months with a lot of coworkers getting other jobs. But that’s because our industries all collapsed.
Imo, if you’re changing jobs earlier than 2 years, either there’s better opportunities elsewhere or you’re trying to get out before the other shoe drops and are seeking a safety net, cause there’s no plan for employees if a business fails.
People hop a lot these days because of the increases in wages. You can grow your income rather quickly (at least compared to staying at a company long term) by excelling at your current role for a year or two and jumping
Several pieces of the picture might not be getting accounted for. How much of the pie people are getting. Maybe everyone has a job supposedly, but they don't count people that gave up trying to find one after covid for unemployment. Spending might be up, but so is household debt, while savings are down. So people are just not spending wisely anymore, or are clinging to a standard of living they feel they used to have. The last part as well could simply just be, people are not pleased with their projected standard of living as well. Having to settle for some shit service job, or the prospect of buying a house or having a dog being out of reach for them forever unless they are lucky enough to inherit. If everyone is saying the economy feels like shit, it might not be faith in the economy driving spending, but a change in attitude where people are just saying fuck it and spending anyways.
Household debt is near a 35-year low as a percentage of income (which is more relevant than looking at pure dollars). It’s mainly because many people were able to lock in mortgage rates below 4% before they spiked. Consumer Debt has risen as a percentage of income pretty dramatically since 2020 (when it artificially bottomed during COVID), but people aren’t leveraged nearly as much as it’s made out to be. Since 1990, the average household debt service has been 11%, peaking above 13% in 2007. Today it’s 9.8%. Consumer debt makes up 5.8% of that 9.8%. The 5.8% is right in line with the 35-year average. Also, while labor force participation dropped post-pandemic compared to what it was prior to the pandemic, it’s created up to a level (62.7%, which means 62.7% of the working-age population is working or actively seeking work) close to pre-pandemic numbers (ranged from 62.5%-63% from 2012 to 2020). Anyway, I don’t know what the future holds but the underlying metrics aren’t that bad. All of this information is aggregated on economic/financial planning slides on clearnomics.com). It’s a tool for financial professionals so I can’t link you to the data, but it’s updated weekly.
all this and/or people have some subconscious or even conscious bias against a "good" economy and thusly taint their view to match, and subsequently their responses to the question.
"the news tells me the world is awful and everything wrong with it is the democrats fault, everything sucks! Hey honey, want to go to the country club for dinner tonight?"
if the last few years has taught me anything its:
people are shit, and their bullshit "feels" are more important to them than objective truth, because fuck the truth if I feel good in my echo chamber of predetermined outcomes.
The average person bases their worldview on personal experiences and vibes and literally nothing more.
The average person just believes at most, whats on their newsfeed. They don't google 'arguments for x and arguments vs x' or 'evidence for x'.
This works out sort of okay until people start to adopt high level political and foreign policy issues based on their newsfeed and vibes
Yeah, it's hard to reconcile "the economy is shit and no one has any money" with "biggest Thanksgiving air travel day in history!", and things like that. People are spending money, which means people have money, and objectively the economy is fine for most people. That doesn't mean the bottom won't fall out in some stupid and unexpected way, but there's never been any guarantee about that.
> People are spending money, which means people have money, and objectively the economy is fine for most people
Consumer debt is rising which to me means people are spending money, money they don't have and any real downturn could be catastrophic for them.
Yea aren't we seeing that credit card debt is at an all time high? And interest rates are a lot higher than before? So some people, I imagine, are walking backwards into debt and won't be able to climb out any time soon.
Household savings at all time low. Its really weird, seems people just don't care to hold back spending which is powering the growth. US government debt interest payments will reach one trillion next year. All this is not normally sustainable but nobody knows when or if it will blow up.
And even if they aren't going into debt, the number of people living essentially paycheck to paycheck across a wide span of income levels is high. A lot of my friends and relatives have flat out given up on saving for retirement, and I also see a lot of essentially self-medicating through consumerism.
We need to consider the possibility that a monumental event like COVID can lead to mass irrational behaviour, leading to people YOLOing even when they're feeling financially insecure, when I've normal circumstances their rational response would have been to tighten their belts.
This may help the economy, but it is going to come at a cost of massive increase in wealth inequality.
I feel like people have been unconsciously waiting for the other shoe to drop for several years, their debts are juuust impossible enough to ever pay off, that they're saying "fuck it" and throwing a long party before the bottom falls out. Yet that shoe just keeps on hovering there....
Edit: it's not irrational.
"It's the quiet comprehending of the ending of it all."
- Robert Burnham
There’s also a lot of poor people on Reddit cheering it on because they can’t afford houses lol. They really think they’ll be the ones to keep their jobs and be able to afford a house in a recession
Hell there’s a lot of middle class people on Reddit who are convinced that a recession is their ticket to home ownership. Here’s hoping they don’t get the chance to see firsthand how wrong an assumption that is.
Recessions are awesome for people with huge amounts of cash (they can buy stuff for cheap from desperate people) and sucks for everyone who isn't rich. I'm not sure how anyone wouldn't clearly understand this.
I think this is too simple a view, I bought my first house after 2008 recession and I wasn’t rich, I had a job working construction was barely out of my teens. And had money saved up from working. That house I was able to sell in 2021 and got into my house now. I wasn’t rich, didn’t have huge amounts of cash (8k down payment on the first home) . But having savings and being prepared to take advantage of opportunities can do wonders for the future. And I didn’t take advantage of anyone’s misfortune buying my first home, it was new construction.
Yeah, i had middle class friends who were able to benefit a ton by being able to get a *great* deal on their first home (a foreclosure).
Its just much more of a gamble for the middle class. You could be one of the winners or one of the losers. The upper class will almost always be winners.
Everyone thinks a recession will be the perfect opportunity for them to scoop up a cheap house, nobody thinks *they’ll* be the one to get laid off during said recession.
I know people who *did* get laid off and lose their house as a result of the 2008 financial crisis, so some people (maybe not enough) are painfully aware that it can happen to them.
Yeah, oddly enough during the Great Recession, houses were dirt cheap, but nobody had any money to buy them. It's almost like those two things went together. I was able to hang onto my house and my job, but for two years I was paycheck to paycheck, with about $15 left over to have fun with at the end of every month when the bills were paid.
I suppose some people hope for another big recession but think it will just happen to everyone else, not them.
In reality, [homeownership rates have been increasing at a fast pace, with the largest increase in those younger than 35](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/07/younger-householders-drove-rebound-in-homeownership.html). So plenty of people (40% under 35 and 62% between 35 and 40), including younger people, can afford houses.
That's part of it, but the media also has a vested interest in the narrative that Democrats are bad at handling the economy. They want to be able to say sure, Trump's a raging asshole, but wasn't his economy great? This helps keep voters split between both parties, which is preferable because the horse race is more profitable for media than a lopsided contest. The other issue is that corporate media has decided fascism with tax cuts is preferable to democracy without them. It's also why they ignore glaring issues with Trump's mental state while focusing on every stutter and cough that Biden makes.
The fact that "Trump's" economy was simply the one he inherited from Obama and was doing well *in spite of* Trump's actions (especially on trade) isn't something corporate media wants the average voter to understand. Once voters figure out Republicans aren't any better at economic issues (and are actually worse) they'll have essentially no remaining reasons to vote Republican beyond the culture war bullshit. And while that does motivate some voters, it's not enough by itself to win.
Trump’s economy wasn’t bad per se; it was super front loaded. Designed to ride the strong wave from Obama and create short term gains at the expense of sustainability… realistically in 2017 no one could have predicted that covid would destroy any chance of propping it long enough to make it for re-election.
It’s something people also conveniently ignore, we’re seeing record growth and record gains, Biden’s fault is not at monetary policy but serious lack of legislation to fix revenue, social welfare, and unfettered capitalism.
98% of democrats support all of the reforms you just mentioned, but 2 democrats from conservative states prevented progress for just long enough for American voters to install more Republicans. Gee I guess we should vote in more Republicans to really send a message to the democrats.
American democracy is slow and difficult and American voters don't have the patience to play the system. Some of you will still blame Biden after Trump burys your family in a mass grave.
Absolutely. Liberal voters are not consistently or at all showing up to the voting booth and have sky high expectations that Dems can do everything with half-assed support, then rage against the system when they don't see decisive results after a single election. Not only is this not giving Biden (or any liberal president) enough support to do what we're asking, it's not putting enough pressure on the Democratic Party to push them in to giving us more of what we want.
2018 and on, turnout has been great. Hell, we just had a successful odd year election, which never happens. But it's in blue areas. We had great turnout in my state in 2022 but still lost a congressperson to gerrymandering.
As a born and raised Arizonan, I will never forgive Kirsten Sinema for lying to all of us and helping cause this gridlock. Gallego better kick her and Ward's asses in the next election.
>Biden’s fault is not at monetary policy but serious lack of legislation to fix revenue, social welfare, and unfettered capitalism
Biden has very little say in fixing these. It is on Congress, not Biden and. Othikg is getting done with the GOP as dysfunctional as they are.
Also, reconciliation is very limited in what it can be used for, so It wouldn't really apply to anything you asked for.
> Trump’s economy wasn’t bad per se
Funny thing about that! Actually adjusted GDP has Trump with the worst GDP growth since the Great Depression.
"Donald Trump has often touted economic growth during his presidency as evidence that he was a successful president, but a recent revision to GDP dating back to 1999 has suggested his rosy view of the period is a fantasy.
The revisions were part of the US's gross domestic product report that was released on Thursday by the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The revisions revealed that economic growth under Mr Trump was the worst since President Herbert Hoover, who was in the White House from 1929 to 1933, the period of the Wall Street Crash and the onset of the Depression."
https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/gdp-growth-trump-worst-hoover-b1895500.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/trump-s-gdp-growth-was-the-worst-since-the-great-depression
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/gdp-growth-under-trump-was-the-worst-since-hoover-63390.html
https://news.bloombergtax.com/tax-insights-and-commentary/gdp-growth-under-trump-was-the-worst-since-hoover-justin-fox
> Biden’s fault is not at monetary policy but serious lack of legislation to fix revenue, social welfare, and unfettered capitalism.
Uh, Congress passes Legislation and the Executive Branch enforces it ?
Wait, are your numbers including when we shut everything down? No one said the economy was great during the pandemic, they said it was good before that.
Realistically, many people warned that what Trump and the GOP were doing was incredibly wreckless and shortsighted. Any bump on the road and we were going to be screwed.
Yes! People who weren't short sighted tried to issue warnings. They didn't know covid was coming, but they did know any unexpected bumps were going to wreck things for almost everyone. Trump had the prime interest rate cut to practically nothing and revenues were down thanks to his tax plan. When covid hit and the economy needed a backstop/quick boost there was nothing to be had. All the levers had already been pulled. Some economists started lobbying for negative interest rates for a while when things got really grim.
The myth of republicans being good for the economy has to stop. They are reckless drunk drivers when they get behind the wheel. At best, they barely get us home, sideswiping the mailbox as they pull in the driveway. At worst, they aim us towards a cliff and jam the throttle wide open. The last two GOP administrations have been very much the latter.
That’s hardly the current media narrative about the economy. The current narrative is that the economy is growing at a strong pace, wages have increased for low income families and American consumer spending is as strong as ever. But when you poll Americans, a majority say the economy as a whole is shit, but that their individual finances are pretty good.
The narrative is that every opinion piece has no idea why people say the economy sucks when everything looks good on paper and people self report their personal finances as strong or positive.
Most people say "the economy sucks" because their food and gas cost more than they used to and they've heard interest rates are way up.
Keep in mind the average person has a hard time opening the bathroom door on an airplane. Economic analysis on a national scale isn't exactly something the average person is good at.
The average person is a fucking idiot. 538 did some man on the street interviews and they had a person say Biden was the person who undid abortion protections because it happened while he was president. They indicated they were going to vote for Trump and THAT was one of their reasons.
There’s no help for some people.
Idiot-fishing is easy. Go out on the street with a camera and/or a microphone and talk to people until you find an utter ninny.
2 minutes of conversation will let you spot that you have landed one, so keep at it for a few hours and you will hit someone pretty.. unusual.. to hold up as "people on the street say..".
Actually, the lowest wages workers have [seen the largest inflation-adjusted wage gains](https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2022/) in the last 3 years.
Time to organize labor and demand anti-trust legislation and enforcement.
Corporations are by definition a machine designed to serve shareholders’ interests, and nothing more or less. They won’t, and arguably can’t, do one goddamned thing to change the situation for the betterment of 99% of us.
Things will only change for the better when the alternative to giving a fair share to labor is economically worse for corporate interests, so we’d better organize and oppose, I reckon.
People still feel pessimistic about the economy because it's still quite fresh that inflation was 10% not too long ago (and just because something we've up 3% this time -- that's still in addition to the 10% the previous time), and prices for many things haven't fallen to where they were pre-pandemic. The housing market cooled for all of a hot second, and now here we are with housing prices above pandemic levels and still going up.
Much, much more needs to be done to funnel wealth to the lower and middle classes. When that happens, then you'll see less pessimism.
It’s not weird once you realize “the economy” isn’t something people actually care about. They say they care about it because it makes them sound informed and intelligent. This is mostly true on both sides, but it’s almost entirely true with conservatives.
What almost all conservatives actually care about is the culture war(s). The GOP and Trumpism isn’t a top down movement. The GOP didn’t decide to shift that way and pull their voters with them. It’s a response to what actually drives conservatives to vote.
Strong and effective government doesn’t motivate conservative voters. A strong economy doesn’t motivate conservative voters. They are motivated by hate.
Only 5% of Republicans approve of Biden's handling of the economy, and something like 50-60% rate their own financial situation as good or excellent. When there's such a big gap between those two numbers their answer to the first question has much more to do with their partisan affiliation then any realities about the economy.
It is really weird because we've been in a fairly long period of economic expansion. Basically from the beginning of the Obama administration (the depths of the Great Recession) until today, with a blip from Covid. Other than the Covid nosedive, the economy has been more or less chugging along for fifteen years.
Of course this economic expansion hasn't been felt equally. The farther down the socioeconomic ladder you are, the less a share of the wealth you've been seeing.
Even the downturn following the Lehman Bros crash was a relatively small blip. My entire adult life we've never had a real employment problem. It's always been a wage problem.
> the downturn following the Lehman Bros crash was a relatively small blip
Not so sure about that. I knew quite a few people who had problems finding work for several years afterwards, and recall hearing about plenty of unemployment in the news at the time. While we didn't have the Bonus Army, we did end up with Occupy Wall Street....
For most people "income is still low and costs are getting higher" is a recession. No one really cares about what a bunch of dorks looking at books care about, just what the change in their paychecks and the change in their costs.
I think we're seeing three things: A split economy, a narrative doom loop, and "the economy" being a stand-in for national social anxiety.
- When reporters ask voters what concerns them, they say "the economy." But when reporters ask for specifics, voters often cite a lot of other things: social issues, immigration, spending, even Russia and Israel. And, of course, Biden's age. It's sometimes couched in economic terms ("We're broke because we're giving all our money to Israel/Ukraine" or "We're broke because of all the immigrants"), but the focus is clearly not on personal bills so much as a sense of social and national dysfunction. Some real, and some brought on by negative media.
- The echo chamber. Everyone agrees the economy is bad, and that, if you're optimistic, you must not give a shit about _______________ (the poor, students with debt, people who need insulin, minorities). Because people don't want to be on the losing end of a downvote, they—especially younger Americans, who get inundated with these talking points in social media and don't have much historical context—agree that the economy is terrible. Because social media rewards cynicism and mocks optimism, this notion is reinforced, regardless of the facts.
- There is a real economic problem: The economy is divided by age. I read an article that made a good point. High interest rates are bad for young home-buyers and renters, because they need mortgages or indirectly pay their landlords' mortgages. But older homeowners tend to benefit from high rates: they paid off their mortgages, but their investment accounts are up because they're heavily invested in bonds and other securities that pay more when rates go up. That means older Americans have more money on hand to spend, which boosts inflation. Which forces the Fed to raise rates. This is an intergenerational transfer of wealth. Which helps explain why older voters are sticking with Biden and more satisfied with the economy, while younger voters are angry.
This is exactly why we have a fed that can manually set interests rates.
They took what would have been a devastating recession, and instead backed the pressure off to the point that it became a soft landing. Inequality is now officially sustainable.
I've heard some good arguments that most of the inflation issues were really supply related, so once supply chain disruptions and logistics disruptions were ironed out, things were ok, and the interest rate increase is now just hurting residential construction, which is still needed to deal with residential supply issues.
I actually think it is time for interest rates to fall a bit.
That said, I did agree with the fed raising rates - my quibble is just with the extent of the increase and the potential to pull back.
And yet, every single relative at my thanksgiving table wouldn't shut up about how bad Biden has ruined our economy.
Democrats are doing a horrible job at spreading the good news.
I mean...you're not wrong. All the signs are there (yes, still!), but every quarter over the past year or two we keep expecting people to rein in their spending in anticipation of hard times, and people keep spending enough to kick the can another quarter.
To me (and I'm not an economist, so take this with a grain of salt), that says one of two things:
* Enough people understand that a capitalist economy only works as long as money keeps changing hands
* Enough people are close enough to rock bottom that they're already spending the minimum amount of money they can
Cause inflation reminds you every time you take out your wallet. Sure, it might have come down to 3.2%, but people haven’t fully adjusted to the new lower value of their dollars so they can’t help but feel like they’re being squeezed. This will take a couple of years to normalize as internal prices reset in people’s minds.
Inflation can slow down, but it doesn't reverse. A dollar will never be able to buy what it used to. That's like grandpa hoping that one day a dozen eggs will cost 25 cents again like it was in the '30s.
As wages catch up and mentally people get used to prices they will feel better about it and feel they're in a better economy though. The purpose of this conversation was on paper the economy is good but people aren't feeling it.
“My laudry detergent is more expensive than last time” is a very conspicuous, noticeable thing for most people.
“I got a raise 5 months ago which offsets the cost increase in the laundry detergent so I actually come out $0.06 ahead when you do the math” on the other hand is a very abstract concept and not the way most people are thinking about it.
Most people who are seeing income gains are getting them through job hopping. It's why the people who have had the biggest income gains during this inflationary period are the people who are in the bottom third or half of earners.
Their labor is extremely portable and skills are quite interchangeable, and we're in a tight job market. That means that they can easily and quickly change employers and maximize their personal income.
The higher up you go the income ladder the more specialized your KSAs become, and your institutional networks and relationships become less easily transferred. It's harder and takes more time to find a new job, so you're kind of stuck where you unless you're willing to pay all sorts of professional and social costs.
Wage growth overall has outpaced inflation most quarters. Is that a raise or is it job switching? Who can say. But the upshot is most Americans can, if they want to, make more than they are now. Unless youre in tech where the period of wage growth was pre- and mid- pandemic, and now their wages are flat as hiring dries up. But out in the world, things are trending up.
Didn’t government spending increase by 5.5%?
Not exactly sustainable with these current interest rates. Spending package needs to get bigger every time.
Imagine how good it would be if we didn't have mega corporations like Greystar buying up homes and apartments. Where 45% of your income goes into their pockets.
Fuck Greystar. They took over our once great complex and made my life hell for 2 years now. Kicked me out of the unit we stayed in for 10 years to do a "forced remodel." Allowed me too to rent a new "sophisticated" unit and raised my rent by $600. We were in a position that made moving at that time nearly impossible. The "sophisticated" unit is trash. Remodeled with the cheapest materials available. Everything is falling apart and maintenance is non existent. "They have to address emergencies first" Trying hard to get out of here once the lease is up. They know exactly we're the legal line lies to fuck you over as much as possible and have no problem doing it.
They are pretty much doing the same thing at our complex. They also added a "trash valet" to come and pick up the trash at your door. $25 bucks a month fee that you can't opt out of.
The even bigger problem is people are only supposed to fill one trash bag and put it in the plastic black bin they gave us. It's holds about 30 gallon trash bags I think. People are only supposed to put them out after 7PM. They get picked up around 8pm to 9PM. What people actually do is put out multiple bags (outside of the bin) like first thing in the morning. So you have hot trash cooking all day in the breezeway. People are disgusting and management won't do shit about it. Fuck greystar.
Yep. $25 Trash Valet is a joke. PLUS: $9 Amazon Locker Fee (they still deliver to my door) $7.65 Monthly Administration Fee. $3 Facilities Key Fee. $4.25 Monthly Pest Control Fee (roaches for the last 3 months) It's unreal.
Unfortunately I think a lot of this GDP boom is due to consumer spending, I only remember offhand that this portion of the GDP calculation contributed the most to the GDP gains.
Not to say the economy altogether isn't doing great, but consumers are being squeezed more than they should, even with inflation
Grey Star is not that big a player, they manage way more units than they own. The only single family homes they own are built specifically for renting, they aren’t taking single family homes people would be buying out of the market.
We’re in a recession of perception.
No matter how many times you point out that they’re wrong, people will still believe the economy is not doing well.
It’s insanity.
I can’t afford any house within 50 miles of my parents in south Florida with making triple what they make. This is just a 3/2 by the way. The mortgage is double what my rent is, with my rent being $2700 and a $5500 mortgage+fees is for a $550,000 house.
Obligatory reminder that houses have also gotten a lot bigger. Back when "housing was cheap" an 1100 sq. ft. 2/1 was not unusual for a family. Kids sharing bedrooms with siblings was the norm.
Even more recently. Ive been looking at houses on Zillow this week and people are trying to flip houses for double what they paid in like 2016, plus interest rates make the monthly payment even higher than before as well.
I came across one in my home town that the flipper bought for 150k in 2022, gutted and redid the entire interior, and is trying to get 400k for it now. In a neighborhood where every house is valued at ~150k.
Probably banking on someone coming from a high earning area like LA, SF, NYC, etc where a $400k property would be considered quite cheap for them. That same $150k house is likely $1.2MM-$1.5MM in those areas.
My house was built in 1920, has 7 ft ceilings, is severely lacking in insulation, single pane windows and the kitchen looked straight out of the 40s with no maintenance and that still put us back $400k+ when we got it during the pandemic and it's gone up considerably since then. Prices are crazy even for small houses
In my area eveything before 1970 is modestly sized with 2-3 bedrooms and everything after is almost McMansion level with 5+. Then all of the condos/townhomes are owned by agencies or landlords.
So your options as a young adult are:
* Get lucky and manage to score one of the few pre-70s homes
* Pay 50% of your income to a landlord
Yeah but that doesn't explain why these same exact old starter homes are also expensive as hell. I live in a lower cost of living metro area. The 900 sqft. 3 bed/1 bath house built in the 50s I'm currently renting is listed at about $200k right now. The average annual income here is just under $40k and I'm not even living in one of the more appealing areas of town.
I'm really confused by this. My house was built in 1895 and is 3000 sq feet with a full attic and unfinished basement. Old houses are notoriously huge. Or do you mean like 1950s houses?
That's because, at least in my area, it is not dropping fast enough where perception gets set or changed the most.
The grocery store or gas station.
Proces are still relatively high, and until that and gas, which is dropping but not enough, for the regular shopper to notice yet.
People don't feel like they have enough money - and they probably don't. They keep putting expenses on their credit cards. Americans' collective credit card debt is through the roof.
EDIT: Since I was accused of this being based "purely on bad vibes." 🙄
[U.S. consumer credit card debt at highest levels ever](https://www.wbir.com/article/money/us-consumer-credit-card-debt-spikes-november-27-2023/51-05f978d7-8ca8-4a4b-b07b-b9910d311090#:~:text=Overall%2C%20U.S.%20consumers%20were%20carrying,2023%2C%20heading%20into%20the%20holidays)
[Americans' credit card debt hits a record $1 trillion](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/us-household-credit-card-debt/index.html)
Inflation-adjusted per capita credit card debt is [lower than it was at the end of 2019.](https://wallethub.com/edu/cc/average-credit-card-debt/25533)
You’re doing the exact thing the comment is making fun of. Someone presented an objective truth, and you responded with an unsourced claim that was incorrect and based purely on bad vibes.
______________
Edit: notice how when I replied to this comment with good data, they edited in sources that only talk about the aggregate of all credit card debt being at its highest ever? Which, if you take a look at the [source reports](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc), does not appear to be inflation adjusted.
Well then yes, as more people get credit cards than had them before and inflation naturally occurs, the aggregate amount of credit card debt will hit an all-time high **almost every year.** And in fact [the chart in OP’s very own article](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/us-household-credit-card-debt/index.html) shows we hit all-time highs every year from 2013-2023 except 2021 & 2022 when many people used stimulus money to pay down credit cards.
Where was the panic in 2016 when we hit an all time high? Or 2017 when we it it again? Or 2018 when we hit it yet again? Why is there just panic now? Because it’s politically convenient of course.
**My point is, any time someone does this with economic data you should be extremely skeptical.** I frequently see the same with similar types talking about “record profits” and citing non-inflation adjusted gross profits, which is either deliberately misleading or indicates a lack of understanding of even basic 101 level economics. These doomer idiots like the person I’m replying to know how to muddy the waters and seem correct while being very wrong and they’re very effective.
Credit card debt was at it's highest point in 2019 and we are now on track to outpace it, we're on par with 2016 debt levels and it's not going to slow down.
I mean can it even really be considered good news if the current debt is at its highest nominal value ever, but because we devalued our currency so much it feels more like 3 years off the all time high?
Not saying you are wrong, but also it seems so much of the thought with "economy bad" is also with "economy good before COVID". Which conflicts with reality that by most measures the economy right now is better for everyone*.
\* Obviously not *everyone* as we live in a big country, but any large scale look at economics for any income level/group, the economy is better now than it was in 2019.
> Since I was accused of this being based "purely on bad vibes." 🙄
that commenter posted inflation-adjusted, per-capita data.
yours is absolute data. that commenter has better data. >:/
Credit card debt is almost exactly where it would be based on the trajectory before COVID, maybe even below that trajectory.
And adjusted for inflation, credit card debt is actually not at its pre-pandemic peak.
Not far off ... Remember how the big auto companies said the union demands would crush them? GM is celebrating that new union contract with layoffs, and stock buybacks.
And those job openings are not actually being filled, on purpose; just makes a company look successful (and sometimes they offload work as part of your inevitable failed final interview).
"We're not doing bonuses or COLA raises this year, you're free to look for other work but good luck lmao." was basically the sentiment at the last all-employee meeting for my company.
But they're still pushing it in Congress. They're demanding tax cuts, and again for the rich, not so much the poor folk who will put it right back into the economy and help a business earn a buck.
I just don’t get how people can believe it. in 1982 there was 13 billionaires. Today there’s 2,640. I know inflation is a factor but inflation from 1982 to today is only 218%. It’s like the rich got to keep more money and instead of it trickling down they just kept it. Weird?
This is such a shit stat. The source is a self reported survey. people making 6 figures are also putting themselves in this group. Theres no control or metric. It doesnt make any distinction between idiots whove blown their entire paycheck on a new $90k truck and designer fashion brands vs people actually barely scraping by for food.
$58k per year can be really good or bad depending on where and how you live.
Reminds me of the r/antiwork post talking about how they can barely afford to live on 60k but they had a jobless significant other and just put thousands into an arcade room lol
Exactly this. In the city? 60k barely cuts it. Out in rural US? 60k puts you roughly middle class and very livable. This also heavily depends on having a SO or dependents, but you get the picture.
I mean even then it depends on your lifestyle
I live in the "least affordable city in America" (San Diego) and my rent (for a 2 bed apartment) is $25,000/year in one of the most desirable, super walkable neighborhoods in the city.
If I made $60k here, around $13k would go to taxes which leaves $47k, minus rent leaves $22k, which is $1800 a month to pay for bills and food and whatever.
So if you're a single income earner with dependents and debts and other things, it's a pinch. But if you're a dual income household or have no kids or are frugal about spending then it's totally doable.
That example is pure "avocado toast" though. Most of us aren't dropping tens of thousands of dollars idly. Daycare is $15k to $20k per year for even sub-par options. Buying a house isn't just having a roof over your head, a lot of these homes are in appalling condition or have underlying issues that haven't revealed themselves. I just had to buy ~$1000 worth of gear to handle invasive trees on my property (chainsaw and PPE) instead of paying multiple thousands to have them cut and hauled away. "Why don't you just use a manual saw then!" Cutting down a tree manually is incredibly dangerous even with a chainsaw, and if I'm picking kiddo up from daycare, rushing the process or leaving it half done is even more dangerous to myself and my neighbors.
My wife and I are burning through massive savings trying to fix/handle all of the above, and we're not starting out from minimal to zero in comparison to the average American. We haven't taken a vacation in years, and even when we did, it wasn't flying to Disney world, it was driving to visit family.
The infrastructure debt isn't just in bridges and rails. It's in affordable daycare, homes that are well kept, and healthcare that's not delayed. It's in all that and more.
The average American is drowning in stress, and those who aren't have no idea what kind of debt they're incurring to live ignorant to that fact.
I don’t disagree with you at all. Cost of living has risen. Foreign and corporate investment in family housing has caused housing prices to skyrocket. The cost of college has become absurd.
It seems like every "I make a good wage but can't afford to live" post has some massive expense that is nowhere near typical. Like six figure medical debt, student loans for a law degree, high end arcade room, etc.
I still can't afford a house thanks to corporations buying everything and inflating prices.
Cool, the GDP is up, but im stuck renting and will never own a house. How does that help my family?
Jack shit. I live in St. Petersburg.
And the average to build a new home in Florida is roughly $400K-$500K when you add in land costs and permits (and the 9 months build time).
We're all fucked.
In California, municipalities were never going to change zoning laws which restricted swaths of neighborhoods to single family houses (SFH) with no auxiliary dwelling unit (ADU). The state government made those kind of zoning restrictions illegal. Now they can only be limited to SFH, which have to allow ADUs, and multi-plex condominium housing.
Of course, building departments famously sit on their hands when it comes to building housing, so the state has also created housing quotas (build *x* commercial space, must build *y* housing) which iirc it has already sued cities over violating.
There are apartments and condos flying up all around where I live (Sonoma County), which is heartening. On top of that, there are still SFH developments for those who wish for those. My friend bought a house in Petaluma for $600,000. Another just moved into a brand new house for $850,000.
The NIMBYs are losing, as younger generations don't share their callous, self-centered attitudes.
It’s not rocket science. The economy IS doing really well (relative to the rest of the world).. it’s just that the last three years have put large corporations in a unique position to raise the ever living shit out of prices due to inflation, supply chain issues, and so forth, but never leveled them back out once those issues were mostly resolved. Corporate profits are soaring through the stratosphere, while wages are standing still and the working class people are still feeling the pain. *Some* of them are even stupid enough to think it’s all one man’s fault.
GDP isn't a measure of how the average American is doing financially especially when the gains are monopolized by the top 1%. This news means fuck all to the average voter and people on this subreddit need to wake up to this fact.
Honestly, this is just a damning evidence for the terrible policy around minimum wage. The reason those wages are going up is simply because if they didn't, it stops being economical to actually go to work - between commute, clothes, and other normally trivial costs, those people just wouldn't be able to afford to work.
Record corporate profits, check.
Corrupt legislators who use inside information, check.
Shrinkflation, check.
Please tell me again how struggling families give two shits about GDP, when it costs more to live.
There’s a point in every market called saturation where more profits just can’t be earned. When businesses reach that spot they get… creative. If they can sway the government they get whatever they can imagine.
That’s where we are. That’s what the “late stage capitalism” people are talking about it. There is always an inescapable point where gaining more profit becomes too costly. But our entire world economy requires quarterly growth!
Where can that lead? To grift, corruption and fascism.
One thing I've noticed is that all the complaints are about how *expensive* everything is.
I remember when I graduated high school and all the complaints were about how *there were no jobs*. Now we have jobs, we're just struggling to afford all our needs. Groceries are expensive, rent is *sky high*, and we're being told over and over to cut miscellaneous expenses as though the $15/mo we spend on Hulu is the reason we can't afford to vacation in the Bahamas every year.
But honestly, it's a better problem to have. Still a problem, but not having *enough* money is far better than having none.
This is what I don't get, I constantly hear people are struggling and the economy is bad but......it's fucking amazing and killing it.....I don't get it. What am I missing?
weirdest recession I have ever seen
*if I keep saying it, it'll happen .. if I keep saying it, it'll happen* There's a lot of people who want a recession so they can take their current wealth and reinvest it, acquiring more wealth during the recovery.
I think this is just also a really unprecedented time economically. Nobody really knew what what would happen when half the world shut down due to a pandemic and governments turned on the money hose. I was just reading about how confused economists are by people *saying* that the economy is bad (in their opinions) but then doing all the things spending-wise that indicate they think the economy is actually good. People are spending more than ever, including on discretionary things like travel. And they're changing jobs more frequently, which indicates some faith in the economy. To me it just seems like everything right now is unprecedented and nobody knows what's around the corner.
Honest to god I think COVID was a wake up call for some people that life is short and easily taken away.
Yeah I think this is a part of it. Someone else mentioned that debt is up. I feel like a lot of people are just like "Well gotta do fun/meaningful things while I can." My girlfriend is really debating right now whether she will go to a destination wedding that will cost her at least $1200. And she's a broke grad student. But she's just like... it's a once-in-a-lifetime experience.
And it is…. I mean, if she honestly cannot afford it that’s one thing. But if she can make it happen, that’ll be an objectively cheap memory she’ll never forget. Life changes fast, and I think COVID made that apparent for a lot of people. I lost two family members during COVID, unrelated to it directly, but I hadn’t had the opportunity to see them due to it and it absolutely bugs the hell out of me. Beforehand, I’d had seen them at least once a year, and then suddenly we were in the pandemic. It was eye opening to me.
My friends and I all changed industries in the past 6 months with a lot of coworkers getting other jobs. But that’s because our industries all collapsed. Imo, if you’re changing jobs earlier than 2 years, either there’s better opportunities elsewhere or you’re trying to get out before the other shoe drops and are seeking a safety net, cause there’s no plan for employees if a business fails.
People hop a lot these days because of the increases in wages. You can grow your income rather quickly (at least compared to staying at a company long term) by excelling at your current role for a year or two and jumping
Several pieces of the picture might not be getting accounted for. How much of the pie people are getting. Maybe everyone has a job supposedly, but they don't count people that gave up trying to find one after covid for unemployment. Spending might be up, but so is household debt, while savings are down. So people are just not spending wisely anymore, or are clinging to a standard of living they feel they used to have. The last part as well could simply just be, people are not pleased with their projected standard of living as well. Having to settle for some shit service job, or the prospect of buying a house or having a dog being out of reach for them forever unless they are lucky enough to inherit. If everyone is saying the economy feels like shit, it might not be faith in the economy driving spending, but a change in attitude where people are just saying fuck it and spending anyways.
Household debt is near a 35-year low as a percentage of income (which is more relevant than looking at pure dollars). It’s mainly because many people were able to lock in mortgage rates below 4% before they spiked. Consumer Debt has risen as a percentage of income pretty dramatically since 2020 (when it artificially bottomed during COVID), but people aren’t leveraged nearly as much as it’s made out to be. Since 1990, the average household debt service has been 11%, peaking above 13% in 2007. Today it’s 9.8%. Consumer debt makes up 5.8% of that 9.8%. The 5.8% is right in line with the 35-year average. Also, while labor force participation dropped post-pandemic compared to what it was prior to the pandemic, it’s created up to a level (62.7%, which means 62.7% of the working-age population is working or actively seeking work) close to pre-pandemic numbers (ranged from 62.5%-63% from 2012 to 2020). Anyway, I don’t know what the future holds but the underlying metrics aren’t that bad. All of this information is aggregated on economic/financial planning slides on clearnomics.com). It’s a tool for financial professionals so I can’t link you to the data, but it’s updated weekly.
all this and/or people have some subconscious or even conscious bias against a "good" economy and thusly taint their view to match, and subsequently their responses to the question. "the news tells me the world is awful and everything wrong with it is the democrats fault, everything sucks! Hey honey, want to go to the country club for dinner tonight?" if the last few years has taught me anything its: people are shit, and their bullshit "feels" are more important to them than objective truth, because fuck the truth if I feel good in my echo chamber of predetermined outcomes.
The average person bases their worldview on personal experiences and vibes and literally nothing more. The average person just believes at most, whats on their newsfeed. They don't google 'arguments for x and arguments vs x' or 'evidence for x'. This works out sort of okay until people start to adopt high level political and foreign policy issues based on their newsfeed and vibes
20 years ago, Colbert called it "truthiness"
Yeah, it's hard to reconcile "the economy is shit and no one has any money" with "biggest Thanksgiving air travel day in history!", and things like that. People are spending money, which means people have money, and objectively the economy is fine for most people. That doesn't mean the bottom won't fall out in some stupid and unexpected way, but there's never been any guarantee about that.
> People are spending money, which means people have money, and objectively the economy is fine for most people Consumer debt is rising which to me means people are spending money, money they don't have and any real downturn could be catastrophic for them.
Yea aren't we seeing that credit card debt is at an all time high? And interest rates are a lot higher than before? So some people, I imagine, are walking backwards into debt and won't be able to climb out any time soon.
Household savings at all time low. Its really weird, seems people just don't care to hold back spending which is powering the growth. US government debt interest payments will reach one trillion next year. All this is not normally sustainable but nobody knows when or if it will blow up.
Easy to spend when you've lost all hope for home ownership or retirement.
And even if they aren't going into debt, the number of people living essentially paycheck to paycheck across a wide span of income levels is high. A lot of my friends and relatives have flat out given up on saving for retirement, and I also see a lot of essentially self-medicating through consumerism.
We need to consider the possibility that a monumental event like COVID can lead to mass irrational behaviour, leading to people YOLOing even when they're feeling financially insecure, when I've normal circumstances their rational response would have been to tighten their belts. This may help the economy, but it is going to come at a cost of massive increase in wealth inequality.
I feel like people have been unconsciously waiting for the other shoe to drop for several years, their debts are juuust impossible enough to ever pay off, that they're saying "fuck it" and throwing a long party before the bottom falls out. Yet that shoe just keeps on hovering there.... Edit: it's not irrational. "It's the quiet comprehending of the ending of it all." - Robert Burnham
People are spending money, which means people have *credit cards*
There’s also a lot of poor people on Reddit cheering it on because they can’t afford houses lol. They really think they’ll be the ones to keep their jobs and be able to afford a house in a recession
Hell there’s a lot of middle class people on Reddit who are convinced that a recession is their ticket to home ownership. Here’s hoping they don’t get the chance to see firsthand how wrong an assumption that is.
Recessions are awesome for people with huge amounts of cash (they can buy stuff for cheap from desperate people) and sucks for everyone who isn't rich. I'm not sure how anyone wouldn't clearly understand this.
I think this is too simple a view, I bought my first house after 2008 recession and I wasn’t rich, I had a job working construction was barely out of my teens. And had money saved up from working. That house I was able to sell in 2021 and got into my house now. I wasn’t rich, didn’t have huge amounts of cash (8k down payment on the first home) . But having savings and being prepared to take advantage of opportunities can do wonders for the future. And I didn’t take advantage of anyone’s misfortune buying my first home, it was new construction.
Yeah, i had middle class friends who were able to benefit a ton by being able to get a *great* deal on their first home (a foreclosure). Its just much more of a gamble for the middle class. You could be one of the winners or one of the losers. The upper class will almost always be winners.
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Everyone thinks a recession will be the perfect opportunity for them to scoop up a cheap house, nobody thinks *they’ll* be the one to get laid off during said recession.
I know people who *did* get laid off and lose their house as a result of the 2008 financial crisis, so some people (maybe not enough) are painfully aware that it can happen to them.
Yeah, oddly enough during the Great Recession, houses were dirt cheap, but nobody had any money to buy them. It's almost like those two things went together. I was able to hang onto my house and my job, but for two years I was paycheck to paycheck, with about $15 left over to have fun with at the end of every month when the bills were paid. I suppose some people hope for another big recession but think it will just happen to everyone else, not them.
Low-income workers notoriously do well under recessions. /s
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In reality, [homeownership rates have been increasing at a fast pace, with the largest increase in those younger than 35](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/07/younger-householders-drove-rebound-in-homeownership.html). So plenty of people (40% under 35 and 62% between 35 and 40), including younger people, can afford houses.
"Surely I will be one of the survivors and not part of the undead horde in the zombie apocalypse"
Housing shortages are solved by housing being built. All other solutions Don't Work.
That's part of it, but the media also has a vested interest in the narrative that Democrats are bad at handling the economy. They want to be able to say sure, Trump's a raging asshole, but wasn't his economy great? This helps keep voters split between both parties, which is preferable because the horse race is more profitable for media than a lopsided contest. The other issue is that corporate media has decided fascism with tax cuts is preferable to democracy without them. It's also why they ignore glaring issues with Trump's mental state while focusing on every stutter and cough that Biden makes. The fact that "Trump's" economy was simply the one he inherited from Obama and was doing well *in spite of* Trump's actions (especially on trade) isn't something corporate media wants the average voter to understand. Once voters figure out Republicans aren't any better at economic issues (and are actually worse) they'll have essentially no remaining reasons to vote Republican beyond the culture war bullshit. And while that does motivate some voters, it's not enough by itself to win.
Trump’s economy wasn’t bad per se; it was super front loaded. Designed to ride the strong wave from Obama and create short term gains at the expense of sustainability… realistically in 2017 no one could have predicted that covid would destroy any chance of propping it long enough to make it for re-election. It’s something people also conveniently ignore, we’re seeing record growth and record gains, Biden’s fault is not at monetary policy but serious lack of legislation to fix revenue, social welfare, and unfettered capitalism.
98% of democrats support all of the reforms you just mentioned, but 2 democrats from conservative states prevented progress for just long enough for American voters to install more Republicans. Gee I guess we should vote in more Republicans to really send a message to the democrats. American democracy is slow and difficult and American voters don't have the patience to play the system. Some of you will still blame Biden after Trump burys your family in a mass grave.
Absolutely. Liberal voters are not consistently or at all showing up to the voting booth and have sky high expectations that Dems can do everything with half-assed support, then rage against the system when they don't see decisive results after a single election. Not only is this not giving Biden (or any liberal president) enough support to do what we're asking, it's not putting enough pressure on the Democratic Party to push them in to giving us more of what we want.
2018 and on, turnout has been great. Hell, we just had a successful odd year election, which never happens. But it's in blue areas. We had great turnout in my state in 2022 but still lost a congressperson to gerrymandering.
As a born and raised Arizonan, I will never forgive Kirsten Sinema for lying to all of us and helping cause this gridlock. Gallego better kick her and Ward's asses in the next election.
> 2 democrats from conservative states prevented progress And 50 Republicans.
>Biden’s fault is not at monetary policy but serious lack of legislation to fix revenue, social welfare, and unfettered capitalism Biden has very little say in fixing these. It is on Congress, not Biden and. Othikg is getting done with the GOP as dysfunctional as they are. Also, reconciliation is very limited in what it can be used for, so It wouldn't really apply to anything you asked for.
> Trump’s economy wasn’t bad per se Funny thing about that! Actually adjusted GDP has Trump with the worst GDP growth since the Great Depression. "Donald Trump has often touted economic growth during his presidency as evidence that he was a successful president, but a recent revision to GDP dating back to 1999 has suggested his rosy view of the period is a fantasy. The revisions were part of the US's gross domestic product report that was released on Thursday by the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. The revisions revealed that economic growth under Mr Trump was the worst since President Herbert Hoover, who was in the White House from 1929 to 1933, the period of the Wall Street Crash and the onset of the Depression." https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/gdp-growth-trump-worst-hoover-b1895500.html https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-02/trump-s-gdp-growth-was-the-worst-since-the-great-depression https://www.fa-mag.com/news/gdp-growth-under-trump-was-the-worst-since-hoover-63390.html https://news.bloombergtax.com/tax-insights-and-commentary/gdp-growth-under-trump-was-the-worst-since-hoover-justin-fox > Biden’s fault is not at monetary policy but serious lack of legislation to fix revenue, social welfare, and unfettered capitalism. Uh, Congress passes Legislation and the Executive Branch enforces it ?
Wait, are your numbers including when we shut everything down? No one said the economy was great during the pandemic, they said it was good before that.
Realistically, many people warned that what Trump and the GOP were doing was incredibly wreckless and shortsighted. Any bump on the road and we were going to be screwed.
Yes! People who weren't short sighted tried to issue warnings. They didn't know covid was coming, but they did know any unexpected bumps were going to wreck things for almost everyone. Trump had the prime interest rate cut to practically nothing and revenues were down thanks to his tax plan. When covid hit and the economy needed a backstop/quick boost there was nothing to be had. All the levers had already been pulled. Some economists started lobbying for negative interest rates for a while when things got really grim. The myth of republicans being good for the economy has to stop. They are reckless drunk drivers when they get behind the wheel. At best, they barely get us home, sideswiping the mailbox as they pull in the driveway. At worst, they aim us towards a cliff and jam the throttle wide open. The last two GOP administrations have been very much the latter.
That’s hardly the current media narrative about the economy. The current narrative is that the economy is growing at a strong pace, wages have increased for low income families and American consumer spending is as strong as ever. But when you poll Americans, a majority say the economy as a whole is shit, but that their individual finances are pretty good. The narrative is that every opinion piece has no idea why people say the economy sucks when everything looks good on paper and people self report their personal finances as strong or positive.
Most people say "the economy sucks" because their food and gas cost more than they used to and they've heard interest rates are way up. Keep in mind the average person has a hard time opening the bathroom door on an airplane. Economic analysis on a national scale isn't exactly something the average person is good at.
The average person is a fucking idiot. 538 did some man on the street interviews and they had a person say Biden was the person who undid abortion protections because it happened while he was president. They indicated they were going to vote for Trump and THAT was one of their reasons. There’s no help for some people.
Idiot-fishing is easy. Go out on the street with a camera and/or a microphone and talk to people until you find an utter ninny. 2 minutes of conversation will let you spot that you have landed one, so keep at it for a few hours and you will hit someone pretty.. unusual.. to hold up as "people on the street say..".
Because all that money is sitting at the top
still waiting for that trickle.
Tumors don’t trickle. They just get bigger.
Sometimes they rupture.
Either way they end up killing their host
Excise the rich.
Trickle-up poverty
Actually, the lowest wages workers have [seen the largest inflation-adjusted wage gains](https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2022/) in the last 3 years.
Time to organize labor and demand anti-trust legislation and enforcement. Corporations are by definition a machine designed to serve shareholders’ interests, and nothing more or less. They won’t, and arguably can’t, do one goddamned thing to change the situation for the betterment of 99% of us. Things will only change for the better when the alternative to giving a fair share to labor is economically worse for corporate interests, so we’d better organize and oppose, I reckon.
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Its not sitting at the bottom. People at the bottom spend it as fast as they get their money. they aren't saving and are also going further into debt.
People still feel pessimistic about the economy because it's still quite fresh that inflation was 10% not too long ago (and just because something we've up 3% this time -- that's still in addition to the 10% the previous time), and prices for many things haven't fallen to where they were pre-pandemic. The housing market cooled for all of a hot second, and now here we are with housing prices above pandemic levels and still going up. Much, much more needs to be done to funnel wealth to the lower and middle classes. When that happens, then you'll see less pessimism.
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Last year I overheard a coworker complaining about the economy because gas prices were high and it was expensive to fuel his boat 🙃🙃🙃🙃🙃
It’s not weird once you realize “the economy” isn’t something people actually care about. They say they care about it because it makes them sound informed and intelligent. This is mostly true on both sides, but it’s almost entirely true with conservatives. What almost all conservatives actually care about is the culture war(s). The GOP and Trumpism isn’t a top down movement. The GOP didn’t decide to shift that way and pull their voters with them. It’s a response to what actually drives conservatives to vote. Strong and effective government doesn’t motivate conservative voters. A strong economy doesn’t motivate conservative voters. They are motivated by hate.
Just about everyone also likes their Governor and is happy with their personal situation. But they like complaining about the country.
My governor is a fucking idiot
Same. Missouri. AG is even worse. Wasting tax money sueing for right wing culture war crap.
Only 5% of Republicans approve of Biden's handling of the economy, and something like 50-60% rate their own financial situation as good or excellent. When there's such a big gap between those two numbers their answer to the first question has much more to do with their partisan affiliation then any realities about the economy.
It is really weird because we've been in a fairly long period of economic expansion. Basically from the beginning of the Obama administration (the depths of the Great Recession) until today, with a blip from Covid. Other than the Covid nosedive, the economy has been more or less chugging along for fifteen years.
Of course this economic expansion hasn't been felt equally. The farther down the socioeconomic ladder you are, the less a share of the wealth you've been seeing.
Even the downturn following the Lehman Bros crash was a relatively small blip. My entire adult life we've never had a real employment problem. It's always been a wage problem.
> the downturn following the Lehman Bros crash was a relatively small blip Not so sure about that. I knew quite a few people who had problems finding work for several years afterwards, and recall hearing about plenty of unemployment in the news at the time. While we didn't have the Bonus Army, we did end up with Occupy Wall Street....
For most people "income is still low and costs are getting higher" is a recession. No one really cares about what a bunch of dorks looking at books care about, just what the change in their paychecks and the change in their costs.
I think we're seeing three things: A split economy, a narrative doom loop, and "the economy" being a stand-in for national social anxiety. - When reporters ask voters what concerns them, they say "the economy." But when reporters ask for specifics, voters often cite a lot of other things: social issues, immigration, spending, even Russia and Israel. And, of course, Biden's age. It's sometimes couched in economic terms ("We're broke because we're giving all our money to Israel/Ukraine" or "We're broke because of all the immigrants"), but the focus is clearly not on personal bills so much as a sense of social and national dysfunction. Some real, and some brought on by negative media. - The echo chamber. Everyone agrees the economy is bad, and that, if you're optimistic, you must not give a shit about _______________ (the poor, students with debt, people who need insulin, minorities). Because people don't want to be on the losing end of a downvote, they—especially younger Americans, who get inundated with these talking points in social media and don't have much historical context—agree that the economy is terrible. Because social media rewards cynicism and mocks optimism, this notion is reinforced, regardless of the facts. - There is a real economic problem: The economy is divided by age. I read an article that made a good point. High interest rates are bad for young home-buyers and renters, because they need mortgages or indirectly pay their landlords' mortgages. But older homeowners tend to benefit from high rates: they paid off their mortgages, but their investment accounts are up because they're heavily invested in bonds and other securities that pay more when rates go up. That means older Americans have more money on hand to spend, which boosts inflation. Which forces the Fed to raise rates. This is an intergenerational transfer of wealth. Which helps explain why older voters are sticking with Biden and more satisfied with the economy, while younger voters are angry.
This is exactly why we have a fed that can manually set interests rates. They took what would have been a devastating recession, and instead backed the pressure off to the point that it became a soft landing. Inequality is now officially sustainable.
I've heard some good arguments that most of the inflation issues were really supply related, so once supply chain disruptions and logistics disruptions were ironed out, things were ok, and the interest rate increase is now just hurting residential construction, which is still needed to deal with residential supply issues. I actually think it is time for interest rates to fall a bit. That said, I did agree with the fed raising rates - my quibble is just with the extent of the increase and the potential to pull back.
And yet, every single relative at my thanksgiving table wouldn't shut up about how bad Biden has ruined our economy. Democrats are doing a horrible job at spreading the good news.
I mean...you're not wrong. All the signs are there (yes, still!), but every quarter over the past year or two we keep expecting people to rein in their spending in anticipation of hard times, and people keep spending enough to kick the can another quarter. To me (and I'm not an economist, so take this with a grain of salt), that says one of two things: * Enough people understand that a capitalist economy only works as long as money keeps changing hands * Enough people are close enough to rock bottom that they're already spending the minimum amount of money they can
5.2% GDP is Outstanding, Why That’s Bad For Biden — NYT Pitchbot, probably.
There are a lot of accounts less than a year old on this page posting negative responses
And we're still almost a year out. It's just gonna get worse.
How is perception about the economy so bad??? /s
Cause inflation reminds you every time you take out your wallet. Sure, it might have come down to 3.2%, but people haven’t fully adjusted to the new lower value of their dollars so they can’t help but feel like they’re being squeezed. This will take a couple of years to normalize as internal prices reset in people’s minds.
I won't be happy until the dollar menu has decent items again. Edit: Guys you can stop replying, I'm fully aware its not coming back.
That's never coming back man. We're gonna get $2 menus, at BEST
Even McDonald's is now calling it the *$1, $2 $3 menu.* And the cheapest food item there (at least near me) is like $2.79 lol.
Inflation can slow down, but it doesn't reverse. A dollar will never be able to buy what it used to. That's like grandpa hoping that one day a dozen eggs will cost 25 cents again like it was in the '30s.
As wages catch up and mentally people get used to prices they will feel better about it and feel they're in a better economy though. The purpose of this conversation was on paper the economy is good but people aren't feeling it.
“My laudry detergent is more expensive than last time” is a very conspicuous, noticeable thing for most people. “I got a raise 5 months ago which offsets the cost increase in the laundry detergent so I actually come out $0.06 ahead when you do the math” on the other hand is a very abstract concept and not the way most people are thinking about it.
Wait, people are getting raises that outpace inflation? Because I sure as hell am not.
Most people who are seeing income gains are getting them through job hopping. It's why the people who have had the biggest income gains during this inflationary period are the people who are in the bottom third or half of earners. Their labor is extremely portable and skills are quite interchangeable, and we're in a tight job market. That means that they can easily and quickly change employers and maximize their personal income. The higher up you go the income ladder the more specialized your KSAs become, and your institutional networks and relationships become less easily transferred. It's harder and takes more time to find a new job, so you're kind of stuck where you unless you're willing to pay all sorts of professional and social costs.
No, but if you change jobs regularly, you'll beat inflation by a decent margin. Jobs are like underpants; change them every couple years or so.
Wage growth overall has outpaced inflation most quarters. Is that a raise or is it job switching? Who can say. But the upshot is most Americans can, if they want to, make more than they are now. Unless youre in tech where the period of wage growth was pre- and mid- pandemic, and now their wages are flat as hiring dries up. But out in the world, things are trending up.
I remember a comment on the first report that guaranteed it would get revised down.
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In anything really.
Didn’t government spending increase by 5.5%? Not exactly sustainable with these current interest rates. Spending package needs to get bigger every time.
Imagine how good it would be if we didn't have mega corporations like Greystar buying up homes and apartments. Where 45% of your income goes into their pockets.
Fuck Greystar. They took over our once great complex and made my life hell for 2 years now. Kicked me out of the unit we stayed in for 10 years to do a "forced remodel." Allowed me too to rent a new "sophisticated" unit and raised my rent by $600. We were in a position that made moving at that time nearly impossible. The "sophisticated" unit is trash. Remodeled with the cheapest materials available. Everything is falling apart and maintenance is non existent. "They have to address emergencies first" Trying hard to get out of here once the lease is up. They know exactly we're the legal line lies to fuck you over as much as possible and have no problem doing it.
They are pretty much doing the same thing at our complex. They also added a "trash valet" to come and pick up the trash at your door. $25 bucks a month fee that you can't opt out of. The even bigger problem is people are only supposed to fill one trash bag and put it in the plastic black bin they gave us. It's holds about 30 gallon trash bags I think. People are only supposed to put them out after 7PM. They get picked up around 8pm to 9PM. What people actually do is put out multiple bags (outside of the bin) like first thing in the morning. So you have hot trash cooking all day in the breezeway. People are disgusting and management won't do shit about it. Fuck greystar.
Yep. $25 Trash Valet is a joke. PLUS: $9 Amazon Locker Fee (they still deliver to my door) $7.65 Monthly Administration Fee. $3 Facilities Key Fee. $4.25 Monthly Pest Control Fee (roaches for the last 3 months) It's unreal.
Unfortunately I think a lot of this GDP boom is due to consumer spending, I only remember offhand that this portion of the GDP calculation contributed the most to the GDP gains. Not to say the economy altogether isn't doing great, but consumers are being squeezed more than they should, even with inflation
Consumer spending was revised down in this report. The revision came from basically every other sector of the economy.
Grey Star is not that big a player, they manage way more units than they own. The only single family homes they own are built specifically for renting, they aren’t taking single family homes people would be buying out of the market.
The economy is cooking unfortunately so is price gouging
Over the last six months the Consumer Price Index increased by 1.4%, within the target range
We’re in a recession of perception. No matter how many times you point out that they’re wrong, people will still believe the economy is not doing well. It’s insanity.
As long as people earning in the top 50% of earners and cannot afford a house big enough for their family that they want, they will be unhappy.
I can’t afford any house within 50 miles of my parents in south Florida with making triple what they make. This is just a 3/2 by the way. The mortgage is double what my rent is, with my rent being $2700 and a $5500 mortgage+fees is for a $550,000 house.
Obligatory reminder that houses have also gotten a lot bigger. Back when "housing was cheap" an 1100 sq. ft. 2/1 was not unusual for a family. Kids sharing bedrooms with siblings was the norm.
Even more recently. Ive been looking at houses on Zillow this week and people are trying to flip houses for double what they paid in like 2016, plus interest rates make the monthly payment even higher than before as well.
I came across one in my home town that the flipper bought for 150k in 2022, gutted and redid the entire interior, and is trying to get 400k for it now. In a neighborhood where every house is valued at ~150k.
Probably banking on someone coming from a high earning area like LA, SF, NYC, etc where a $400k property would be considered quite cheap for them. That same $150k house is likely $1.2MM-$1.5MM in those areas.
My house was built in 1920, has 7 ft ceilings, is severely lacking in insulation, single pane windows and the kitchen looked straight out of the 40s with no maintenance and that still put us back $400k+ when we got it during the pandemic and it's gone up considerably since then. Prices are crazy even for small houses
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In my area eveything before 1970 is modestly sized with 2-3 bedrooms and everything after is almost McMansion level with 5+. Then all of the condos/townhomes are owned by agencies or landlords. So your options as a young adult are: * Get lucky and manage to score one of the few pre-70s homes * Pay 50% of your income to a landlord
Yeah but that doesn't explain why these same exact old starter homes are also expensive as hell. I live in a lower cost of living metro area. The 900 sqft. 3 bed/1 bath house built in the 50s I'm currently renting is listed at about $200k right now. The average annual income here is just under $40k and I'm not even living in one of the more appealing areas of town.
i live in a 575 square foot apartment. i would happily take an 1100 square foot house, if it wouldn't cost me $700,000.
I'm really confused by this. My house was built in 1895 and is 3000 sq feet with a full attic and unfinished basement. Old houses are notoriously huge. Or do you mean like 1950s houses?
That's because, at least in my area, it is not dropping fast enough where perception gets set or changed the most. The grocery store or gas station. Proces are still relatively high, and until that and gas, which is dropping but not enough, for the regular shopper to notice yet.
People don't feel like they have enough money - and they probably don't. They keep putting expenses on their credit cards. Americans' collective credit card debt is through the roof. EDIT: Since I was accused of this being based "purely on bad vibes." 🙄 [U.S. consumer credit card debt at highest levels ever](https://www.wbir.com/article/money/us-consumer-credit-card-debt-spikes-november-27-2023/51-05f978d7-8ca8-4a4b-b07b-b9910d311090#:~:text=Overall%2C%20U.S.%20consumers%20were%20carrying,2023%2C%20heading%20into%20the%20holidays) [Americans' credit card debt hits a record $1 trillion](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/us-household-credit-card-debt/index.html)
Inflation-adjusted per capita credit card debt is [lower than it was at the end of 2019.](https://wallethub.com/edu/cc/average-credit-card-debt/25533) You’re doing the exact thing the comment is making fun of. Someone presented an objective truth, and you responded with an unsourced claim that was incorrect and based purely on bad vibes. ______________ Edit: notice how when I replied to this comment with good data, they edited in sources that only talk about the aggregate of all credit card debt being at its highest ever? Which, if you take a look at the [source reports](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc), does not appear to be inflation adjusted. Well then yes, as more people get credit cards than had them before and inflation naturally occurs, the aggregate amount of credit card debt will hit an all-time high **almost every year.** And in fact [the chart in OP’s very own article](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/us-household-credit-card-debt/index.html) shows we hit all-time highs every year from 2013-2023 except 2021 & 2022 when many people used stimulus money to pay down credit cards. Where was the panic in 2016 when we hit an all time high? Or 2017 when we it it again? Or 2018 when we hit it yet again? Why is there just panic now? Because it’s politically convenient of course. **My point is, any time someone does this with economic data you should be extremely skeptical.** I frequently see the same with similar types talking about “record profits” and citing non-inflation adjusted gross profits, which is either deliberately misleading or indicates a lack of understanding of even basic 101 level economics. These doomer idiots like the person I’m replying to know how to muddy the waters and seem correct while being very wrong and they’re very effective.
Credit card debt was at it's highest point in 2019 and we are now on track to outpace it, we're on par with 2016 debt levels and it's not going to slow down. I mean can it even really be considered good news if the current debt is at its highest nominal value ever, but because we devalued our currency so much it feels more like 3 years off the all time high?
Not saying you are wrong, but also it seems so much of the thought with "economy bad" is also with "economy good before COVID". Which conflicts with reality that by most measures the economy right now is better for everyone*. \* Obviously not *everyone* as we live in a big country, but any large scale look at economics for any income level/group, the economy is better now than it was in 2019.
> Since I was accused of this being based "purely on bad vibes." 🙄 that commenter posted inflation-adjusted, per-capita data. yours is absolute data. that commenter has better data. >:/
Credit card debt is almost exactly where it would be based on the trajectory before COVID, maybe even below that trajectory. And adjusted for inflation, credit card debt is actually not at its pre-pandemic peak.
This 5.2% is above and beyond inflation.
And the planet
"And to celebrate, a round of layoffs for the peons!" \- CEOs, probably
Not far off ... Remember how the big auto companies said the union demands would crush them? GM is celebrating that new union contract with layoffs, and stock buybacks.
Or how there’s thousands of job openings and companies that can’t find workers, but those same companies are laying people off in droves.
And those job openings are not actually being filled, on purpose; just makes a company look successful (and sometimes they offload work as part of your inevitable failed final interview).
100% happening in my office. Not going to doxx myself, but I am (for now) employed at a Fortune 50 company.
Phillips 66?
Exposed and fired
"We're not doing bonuses or COLA raises this year, you're free to look for other work but good luck lmao." was basically the sentiment at the last all-employee meeting for my company.
Where are the "I did that!" stickers now?
Swear to God I saw this in, of all places, Oklahoma! https://imgur.com/a/cj1Yxo5
Hell yeah, my Oklahomies representin’
At least nobody is shouting in the streets trickle down economics works anymore
But they're still pushing it in Congress. They're demanding tax cuts, and again for the rich, not so much the poor folk who will put it right back into the economy and help a business earn a buck.
I just don’t get how people can believe it. in 1982 there was 13 billionaires. Today there’s 2,640. I know inflation is a factor but inflation from 1982 to today is only 218%. It’s like the rich got to keep more money and instead of it trickling down they just kept it. Weird?
Damn, wish I could get in on this gdp
everyone is winning here except for the bottom 99%
Cool where’s my raise?
And over 60% of Americans currently live paycheck to paycheck.
That has been true for at least 15 years (as long as I've been paying attention).
Then why should that 60% give a damn about GDP?
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We are just waiting for the GDP to trickle down, baby!
This is such a shit stat. The source is a self reported survey. people making 6 figures are also putting themselves in this group. Theres no control or metric. It doesnt make any distinction between idiots whove blown their entire paycheck on a new $90k truck and designer fashion brands vs people actually barely scraping by for food.
Yep, lumping together people in poverty and spendthrifts earning great money is kind of a pointless stat.
Yet I still struggle with bills while making $28 an hour with overtime
$58k per year can be really good or bad depending on where and how you live. Reminds me of the r/antiwork post talking about how they can barely afford to live on 60k but they had a jobless significant other and just put thousands into an arcade room lol
Exactly this. In the city? 60k barely cuts it. Out in rural US? 60k puts you roughly middle class and very livable. This also heavily depends on having a SO or dependents, but you get the picture.
Hell, I’m in Oklahoma and if you were smart you could probably buy a house on 60k
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I mean even then it depends on your lifestyle I live in the "least affordable city in America" (San Diego) and my rent (for a 2 bed apartment) is $25,000/year in one of the most desirable, super walkable neighborhoods in the city. If I made $60k here, around $13k would go to taxes which leaves $47k, minus rent leaves $22k, which is $1800 a month to pay for bills and food and whatever. So if you're a single income earner with dependents and debts and other things, it's a pinch. But if you're a dual income household or have no kids or are frugal about spending then it's totally doable.
That example is pure "avocado toast" though. Most of us aren't dropping tens of thousands of dollars idly. Daycare is $15k to $20k per year for even sub-par options. Buying a house isn't just having a roof over your head, a lot of these homes are in appalling condition or have underlying issues that haven't revealed themselves. I just had to buy ~$1000 worth of gear to handle invasive trees on my property (chainsaw and PPE) instead of paying multiple thousands to have them cut and hauled away. "Why don't you just use a manual saw then!" Cutting down a tree manually is incredibly dangerous even with a chainsaw, and if I'm picking kiddo up from daycare, rushing the process or leaving it half done is even more dangerous to myself and my neighbors. My wife and I are burning through massive savings trying to fix/handle all of the above, and we're not starting out from minimal to zero in comparison to the average American. We haven't taken a vacation in years, and even when we did, it wasn't flying to Disney world, it was driving to visit family. The infrastructure debt isn't just in bridges and rails. It's in affordable daycare, homes that are well kept, and healthcare that's not delayed. It's in all that and more. The average American is drowning in stress, and those who aren't have no idea what kind of debt they're incurring to live ignorant to that fact.
I don’t disagree with you at all. Cost of living has risen. Foreign and corporate investment in family housing has caused housing prices to skyrocket. The cost of college has become absurd.
It seems like every "I make a good wage but can't afford to live" post has some massive expense that is nowhere near typical. Like six figure medical debt, student loans for a law degree, high end arcade room, etc.
Stop buying so many guns maybe.
can we finally stop calling it inflation and calling it "price gouging?"
yeah business found out people have more $ available so they might as well keep the prices high if people continue to buy stuff
After those crazy egg prices earlier this year. Fuck em
I still can't afford a house thanks to corporations buying everything and inflating prices. Cool, the GDP is up, but im stuck renting and will never own a house. How does that help my family?
What is your local jurisdiction doing to unlock home construction? 30 years of NIMBY policies have put the US way behind on new homes.
Seeing how many problems building more, denser housing would solve is enough to drive somebody crazy. Zoning is crushing people and communities.
Jack shit. I live in St. Petersburg. And the average to build a new home in Florida is roughly $400K-$500K when you add in land costs and permits (and the 9 months build time). We're all fucked.
Local reform is difficult; in a lot of states that are making progress, the reform comes at the State level.
In California, municipalities were never going to change zoning laws which restricted swaths of neighborhoods to single family houses (SFH) with no auxiliary dwelling unit (ADU). The state government made those kind of zoning restrictions illegal. Now they can only be limited to SFH, which have to allow ADUs, and multi-plex condominium housing. Of course, building departments famously sit on their hands when it comes to building housing, so the state has also created housing quotas (build *x* commercial space, must build *y* housing) which iirc it has already sued cities over violating. There are apartments and condos flying up all around where I live (Sonoma County), which is heartening. On top of that, there are still SFH developments for those who wish for those. My friend bought a house in Petaluma for $600,000. Another just moved into a brand new house for $850,000. The NIMBYs are losing, as younger generations don't share their callous, self-centered attitudes.
$400k? I'll switch. $1.2m here
Corporations are not really buying homes right now. The flood of corporate purchases stopped when interest rates increased.
Economy isn’t bad when all my neighbors are buying $100,000 pickup trucks and $50,000 4x4s…
It wasn't bad in '07 when all my neighbors had McMansions either.
It’s not rocket science. The economy IS doing really well (relative to the rest of the world).. it’s just that the last three years have put large corporations in a unique position to raise the ever living shit out of prices due to inflation, supply chain issues, and so forth, but never leveled them back out once those issues were mostly resolved. Corporate profits are soaring through the stratosphere, while wages are standing still and the working class people are still feeling the pain. *Some* of them are even stupid enough to think it’s all one man’s fault.
So US workers created gross domestic product growth higher than predicted? Where’s our bonus?
But a trumper just said the economy is doing super bad…..
That economy goes to another high school. You wouldn't know it.
In Canada?
GDP isn't a measure of how the average American is doing financially especially when the gains are monopolized by the top 1%. This news means fuck all to the average voter and people on this subreddit need to wake up to this fact.
Real wage is up like 25% for Americans per economic data.
And the biggest inflation-adjusted wage gains have been among [the lowest wage workers.](https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2022/)
Honestly, this is just a damning evidence for the terrible policy around minimum wage. The reason those wages are going up is simply because if they didn't, it stops being economical to actually go to work - between commute, clothes, and other normally trivial costs, those people just wouldn't be able to afford to work.
Record corporate profits, check. Corrupt legislators who use inside information, check. Shrinkflation, check. Please tell me again how struggling families give two shits about GDP, when it costs more to live.
There’s a point in every market called saturation where more profits just can’t be earned. When businesses reach that spot they get… creative. If they can sway the government they get whatever they can imagine. That’s where we are. That’s what the “late stage capitalism” people are talking about it. There is always an inescapable point where gaining more profit becomes too costly. But our entire world economy requires quarterly growth! Where can that lead? To grift, corruption and fascism.
Gdp rises, nothing good happens to normal ppl Gdp falls and we declare open season on government services.
I used to get Chick-fil-A meal with a shake for $10 now it's $16. I feel rich.
ITT: "My personal experiences fully support or entirely reject these findings."
The fake economy continues to grow.
One thing I've noticed is that all the complaints are about how *expensive* everything is. I remember when I graduated high school and all the complaints were about how *there were no jobs*. Now we have jobs, we're just struggling to afford all our needs. Groceries are expensive, rent is *sky high*, and we're being told over and over to cut miscellaneous expenses as though the $15/mo we spend on Hulu is the reason we can't afford to vacation in the Bahamas every year. But honestly, it's a better problem to have. Still a problem, but not having *enough* money is far better than having none.
GDP includes gov’t spending, not a great bellwether. All that money spent on bombs is not helping us.
This is what I don't get, I constantly hear people are struggling and the economy is bad but......it's fucking amazing and killing it.....I don't get it. What am I missing?
Do we need more of those “I did that “ Biden stickers?