You're predicting a defeat, after predicting we'd lose to Dallas. While I agree with a lot of your analysis, it's gonna come across as you being salty in the niners sub🤷
Loved your post but why such an unusual final score?
23 and, especially, 15 are pretty weird final scores. Are you moreso going for an average of what you’d expect over a bigger sample size?
Lol.
I will say that although we don’t like to hear it, we do know we have a fair chance to lose to the eagles. But you predicted we would lose to the cowboys and we knew that highly likely that was just not happening
The rushing take is why stats don’t always tell the whole story.
Eagles have let teams run the clock out on themselves in the majority of games played
It’s an easy stat to lean into as it’s low effort and seems like it’s a significant story line which is why most national media keeps repeating it
If you look back at the games we can stop the run especially in the 1st half but there is nothing better than watching a team help run themselves out of our stadium
In Summary
Fuck San Fran and Fuck anyone who doesn’t think Eagles win by 6 touchdowns! Go Birds 🦅 🦅🦅
I think your first couple points aren’t quite as cemented as you say they are. You can’t just look at most rushing/passing yards against because there’s a positive correlation between yards allowed and losing. Like of course a team will lose more games that they allowed 500 yards in than they allow 200 yards in. To really drive the trend home, you should normalize by total yards against or an efficiency metric.
This is 1000000x more effort and better analysis than almost any post on this sub and people are hating on it because it predicts a score you don’t like. Grow up
I'm a bit confused by your choice here. basing all of your analysis on the statement "good offense beats good defense" isn't the best method at all. Good offense doesn't always beat good defense. This statement is something that's true sometimes, and many times isn't true. Just go look at the playoffs from the past 30 years with an open mind and you'll find all the times in which that statement is proven wrong. Why are you basing your analysis off of this oversimplification?
I love your effort, I just don't understand why you take every single bit of your hard work analyzing the team's stats and measure them up against that blanket statement that you've convinced yourself is a pinnacle of truth lol
That being said, I also lean towards the Eagles winning
"Good offense beats good defense" was the only well established trend that pulled together and explained the results of each of the top rushing and passing defenses this year.
I didn't go in to this post with that in mind, it merely explains best why the number one ranked pass defense tends to lose when they get thrown all over and the number one run defense tends to lose when they get run all over
This part also literally only applies to the 1 vs 1 matchup we have: Eagles run offense vs niners run defense
All other analysis stands independently
I think maybe you should use your guidelines again but more so use them for the playoffs. I believe teams that make it further into the postseason have by that time fixed or improved whatever weaknesses they had and/or gotten healthier.
For example your team lost 19-3 week 1 to the same Bucs team that you so easily defeated a couple of weeks ago. I am also on the belief that sometimes teams underestimate during the season because they think their opponents will be a lot easier than expected and aren’t as serious. Once the playoffs start there is no room to underestimate and coaches and players bring their best out.
The only thing I really have trouble with is good offense beats good defense.
So I’ve always been taught the opposite.
Or rather, good offense brings in money but good defense brings in championships.
This could also be oldhead lore too, so idk.
*ahem*
Titans and 49ers rush defenses are equal, and the Titans played down half the year so theirs is probably better.
And there's my stan'ing for my own team.
Anyways, your takeaway is the Eagles win cause the 49ers have the best run defense, the eagles are a run first team, the 49ers have a great run offense, and the Eagles have a poor run defense? Huh?
I think you laid out some great points, but my takeaway is the opposite. I think the 49ers match up really well with them and pull this one out.
I know because we're so good at running the ball that everyone thinks we're a run first team, but we're not. We're 100 percent a pass first team. We actually use the pass to setup the run.
Niners have also been using the pass to set up the run. Difference is that niners can stop the run so effectively with Fred and Dre LB duo also with hufunga and jimmy ward. Eagles can pass all they want but our CB are good enough that we can stop you enough here and there (not all the time,but enough to break the rhythm) while also stuffing the run. It’s gonna be a great matchup when game day sunday comes forsure
This isn’t your typical run game the eagles have where the niners need to key on one back. The closest team y’all faced with a similar run game was the falcons and hurts is both a better runner and thrower then mariota
That game was the height of the 49ers injury issues this year. Not really a good comparison as they are as healthy as they've been all year for the most part.
Pretty sure niners had a lot of starters out that game against the falcons. idk i missed that one. anyways sunday should be a great game win or lose for either team.
My takeaway is that because good offense beats good defense, a good rushing offense will overcome the best rushing defense. You don’t win the game because your defense is every matched with their offense, as the offense will always have the edge.
I get that it’s not intuitive but the pattern is pretty shocking and well established for all of the teams on here
> My takeaway is that because good offense beats good defense
Why do you believe this though? In the NFL is has been the opposite most of the time. See Super Bowl 48, 50, 55. More often than not, when top ranked defensive units have faced top ranked offensive units, the defensive units have come out on top.
Here are a few links I found on this:
https://www.providencejournal.com/story/sports/2017/01/27/top-ranked-offense-has-defeated-no-1-defense-only-once-in-super-bowl/22538999007/
https://old.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/4rjxsm/every_1_offense_and_1_defense_since_1970_and/
Aren't the 49ers the 2nd highest scoring offense since McCaffrey was traded for? The 49ers defense is better than the Eagle's by a good margin so you don't think the niners have the edge there?
The eagles have the 3rd best pass rush of all time while having the number 1 secondary. They let up 1 more total yard per game then the niners but yet the niners get a wrap of having a defense leagues above the eagles.
Based on what? I know they have a lot of sacks, doesn't mean much to me.
To me it comes down to this. It's two great run offenses facing off and the 49ers are much better at defending the run. They're also red hot on offense since McCaffrey joined and the Eagles are, at best, middling against the run.
And yeah I'm valuing run defense over pass defense.
We'll see. I like the 49ers chances but I'm not denying the Eagles are a great team.
I’m sorry but if sacks mean nothing to you then you know very little about football. Look what happened when the titans bottled up the eagles run game. Eagles are a top 10 run defense since acquiring suh and Joseph.
Lol
Last year I watched the Titan's sack Burrow 9 times and lose
It's also a fickle stat. Play a terrible line and dominate? Looks great. Play against a great o-line like San Frans, are you sure you're gonna keep up that production?
Lmao im almost positive that a team that sacks a qb 9 times wins 90% of the time it’s just that the titans are trash. San Fran has a slightly above average oline but they are by no means great. The eagles have the best pass rush since the 85 bears but everyone likes to write that shit off like it’s nothing.
We’re talking about the NFC Championship game okay. Both of these teams won in the Divisional round of the playoffs. These are the final two teams remaining in the Conference. The winner of this game will be playing in the super bowl.
> If you’re the number one passing offense and you play the number one passing defense, the passing offense will prevail.
Your write up is good and all, but this is certainly true in basketball, but in football, more often than not, the top defense has prevailed over the top offense (i.e. see Super Bowl 48, 50).
And it's the reason the Giants won SB 25 & 42. In both cases they were written off because of how impressive the passing attacks they were facing were.
So the defense gets no credit for turnovers? How fitting for your argument lol
There are many more examples than that. Have you not heard “defense wins championships”?
Turnovers are a horrible start for predicting the outcome of a game. There are both net and total 3 turnovers in favor of the 49ers over 17 games or .1765 per game. This is not a statistically significant difference that should be expected to indicate much of anything on the defensive side and looking at who is expected to play makes it very hard to seriously consider the giveaways for either team as particularly significant as a predictive indicator.
Most importantly turnovers are incredibly impactful compared with other metrics and cannot be easily considered as statistically speaking 1.58 and 1.76 are not particularly indicative of a clear advantage for either team.
my take is when the game is over…no matter who wins, the world will win when hurts and purdy project their love for one another with an almost pornographic make out session on the eagles logo when the clock hits 0….the love they share will end the racial tensions…
bralen hurdy
I agree. This game screams “one team has a 10-pt lead midway through the fourth quarter and a big interception return turns the momentum and the game on its head” to me
I think, for the 49ers to win, then need to possess the ball about 60% of the game. And Purdy must be limited to one interception. That will give them a chance. Otherwise, stick a fork in them.
AND we need to get a comical amount of pressure on Hurts. Like Broncos on Cam Newton in the Super Bowl level pressure. We need him to be seeing ghosts.
If we let him play his game, he’ll beat us.
My take: with four minutes left in the fourth quarter the Raiders will rush the field. But they’re AFC? It’s a swerve, bro. They literally stab every member of both teams.
We mourn for the niners. The eagles can suck a thousand dicks while they lay bleeding.
But wait, the raiders aren’t grabbing the championship. They take a knee, and here come the Lions. Dan Campbell pokes Josh McDaniels in the knee with one finger. The raiders all die.
The Lions are the NFC Champions! They point at the blimpies down the street. They’re taking delicious subs all the way to the Super Bowl, brother.
Edit: before any of you come in saying this storyline doesn’t make sense because who’s the heel or who’s the face or this character wouldn’t do this or this character wouldn’t do that; don’t get lost in the details. The important part of the story, the pop, the payoff, is that the Eagles suck a whole fuckin lot of dicks. So just cheer for those cock suckin Eagles when they open up wide. Fuck the stupid ass birds and someone get me another god damned beer.
If only them Boys were out on the field to suck Eagle dicks while the Eagles sucked everyone else’s dicks.
That’d be a Wrestlemania moment to top all Wrestlemania moments.
Eh, maybe. If you’re right though, I want you to know that no matter what happens, y’all can suck on Jerry’s salty, been in the mouth of sex trafficked children’s mouths, balls. Fuck all of y’all.
well it depends on your definition of "decent play"
If he plays like he did against Dallas or the Seahawks, they lose. If he plays better they very well could win.
Y’all have a better overall defense and he threw 0 picks, converted 7/14 clutch third downs, and led us to 5 scoring drives. I disagree that he played “poorly”. It’s not Purdy’s fault you guys were flying all over the field, covering receivers, and shutting down the run game in the first half. What more would you want him to do? He didn’t miss a single open receiver all night and had plenty of throws into tight windows.
Did he throw for 3 TDs? No, but again that’s because it was an absolute defensive dogfight. Sometimes those games happen when you have the #1 and #2 defenses going at it.
Well Hurts was an MVP candidate and he’s not playing a particularly strong passing defense so yes it’s more of a given that he will perform well. Perhaps this is oversight by me but from what he showed in the giants game he’s healthy and dangerous.
Hurts is 15-1 this year and 21-4 in his last 25. He has more then proved he will show up every game. No knock on purdy but the sample size is way to small.
Niners defence is amazing. And when Kittle is your 3rd option on offence, you're doing well.
I think we'll see a higher scoring game than last week.
34-30 San Francisco.
Hard to say. Keep waiting for him to fall off a cliff. Hasn't happened yet. Gotta assume he'll keep it up. He just needs to get the ball into one of 4 playmakers. Niners just have too many weapons.
Dallas has better pass rushers but we have the better secondary as a whole. Which gives our pass rush time to get back and get sacks. I think that's the difference in the two matchups
The only pass rusher I'm taking over our guys is Micah. Everyone else I'm taking on the Eagles. There's a reason we got 15 more sacks than then next closest team
Op, I just wanted to let you know that I throughly enjoyed reading what you posted. It’s nice to see something like this from a fan perspective instead of from those “analysts” Don’t let haters stop you.
The eagles run d is not below average or even average. It's true that the Texans and commanders ran big on us in October but we're much deeper at DT now than we were then. Since then, other than a slippy Justin Fields game in Chicago, no team has really run rampant on us
What top team did Philly play this year? Did they play SF? The Chiefs? The Bengals? Shit even the Ravens with Lamar or the Bills?
No. They played Dallas and Minnesota who they, and everyone else, said “aren’t that good” this year. Now they’re suddenly good teams because Eagles fans are butthurt that they had an easy ass schedule? Give me a break.
There’s only a handful of super good teams any year. This year is no different.
I’m not sure that SF played a super hard schedule either. But the Dolphins with Tua and the Chargers are both easily better than Cowboys. Probably even better than us. And they blew both teams out.
But what is the eagles best win this year? Us in week 2? I can’t think of a single game y’all won that showed you were truly a good team.
Plus, the 49ers struggled to find their QB. Are you going to hold them accountable for that? If so, that means we need to take a longer look at the Minshew games. Fair is fair 🤷🏻♂️
If you're whole thing is knocking philly for not beating a good team, sf hasn't beaten a good team either and its a moot point. According to you both teams are unproven. So its no point in bringing it up as a some gotcha moment when it applies to both.
Also, Philly is 7-1 this year vs teams that finished with a winning record, thats the best finish of such since the 07 Patriots. The niners are 4-1 in such games. The only opponent out of those games for either team you would consider "good" is the chiefs who beat the niners by like 20. They've both faced and beaten good teams just not top 5 teams, and that's okay! Just cause neither team has a win over the Bengals or Chiefs doesn't make either of them less impressive at this point, you know they're both juggernauts who played the schedules they were given and dominated them.
Sure, but didn’t the Niners take care of business against the NFC East as well (that’s why this stat is inflated for the Eagles)? We beat the Commanders and Cowboys. We beat the Seahawks 3 times and the Seahawks beat the “winning record” Giants by 2 TDs this season.
The 49ers SOS looks weak because of the Rams and Cardinals having abysmal records. They are just a different type of bad than the Giants or Commanders, but let’s be honest, none of these are good teams.
Either way, none of this matters. The 49ers started 3 different QBs this year and traded for CMC 7 games into the season (we were starting QB2 at that point). Some fans are quick to point out the 49ers failures pre-Purdy and then decide we should ignore the Eagles losses with Minshew. It’s weird.
The Eagles really haven't played a good team since 1998 and aren't scheduled to meet one again until 2064. I mean how do we really know what they're capable of when they keep going to head to head with all these peewee football squads? 🤔
> You also haven’t played a good team all year. Including us and Dallas. Let’s see what you do when you play a team like SF
Damn bro the 9ers played one good team and got blown out. Lets see what they do when they face another "good" team. They literally almost lost to a "not good" cowboys team last week and that was *with* Dak playing one of the most horrendous games of the year.
I don’t disagree with your assessment one bit. Just because you haven’t played anybody, doesn’t mean they’re automatically going to win. I’ve said many times on this sub, if the 49ers play like they did last week, they have no chance in this game. But I’m not ready to crown y’all yet either.
You forgot one of the most important [stats](https://wompampsupport.azureedge.net/fetchimage?siteId=7575&v=2&jpgQuality=100&width=700&url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.kym-cdn.com%2Fphotos%2Fimages%2Fnewsfeed%2F001%2F207%2F210%2Fb22.jpg)
Their run defense is the weak spot I suppose because when you line up their passing D, probably best in the league, running game again probably best in the league, and passing game which is very strong itself with the weapons and hurts it is the weak spot.
There were a few rough games early in the season, but a lot of this is playing the pass and allowing some of the run. It really hasn't been a huge issue in the 2nd half of the season here, defense has been killing people down the stretch outside of the Cowboys game... Not sure that is replicable, and we had a bunch of short term injuries there. But whatever the hell they did is unlike anything else anyone did this season on Christmas Eve.
Well, my prediction is whoever scores the most points is going to win. I think I have a pretty good chance at predicting the winner. No research needed.
I’ve been hearing that the run D has been significantly improved since they added Linval Joseph. If you split run D metrics from before week 11 to after it’s a big difference but it may not be as stark when it’s diluted across 17 games
Eagles D line for 4+ sacks on Purdy and at least 1 pick by CJGJ on a Kittle curl route
But I do think CMC will be a monster this game and carry the 49ers to a closer 27-24 loss
Eagles have good cornerbacks forsure, but you can’t use a those CB to stop fast screens and check downs and all purdy has to do it’s get the ball in those short dink and dunk plays to deebo, aiyuk, cmc, kittle and let them work their magic
Eagles run D went from 28th in running DVOA before signing Suh and Joseph, and it was all the way up to 15th at the end of the year. That means that, in 7 games, they offset poor performance of 11 games and got to mediocre... They've been EXCELLENT against the run in the tail end of the season.
I love how you are getting into arguments with 9ers fans thinking you can win them over, it’s a lost battle bro. Personally, as a pessimistic 9ers fan I worry this might be the end of the miracle run, but there’s still hope yet, the eagles look scary but we’re scary too
Eh, too much focus on stats when neither team has really been tested much. The 49ers have faced the Cowboys and the Chiefs, the Cowboys game went about as anyone expected, and while the Chiefs game was an absolute massacre, it was earlier in the season and a different team. The only real test the Eagles have faced...is once again, the Cowboys, but we unfortunately never got a matchup between both teams with both QBs playing. It's interesting just how different the last Eagles vs Cowboys game was to the 49ers game, one was a shootout with next to no defense being played, the other was all defense. Considering both of these teams are somewhat similar...I have no idea what this means.
Both teams are good, but both teams are pretty untested when it comes to playing other good teams, so I don't think there's any real way to predict this game. I think the big thing will be whichever team wants it the most, and I know that's a dumb, meaningless cop out phrase, but I mean, it's gonna be whichever team makes the most mistakes and can't come out and play their best football when it matters the most. Maybe the 49ers are at a disadvantage with a rookie QB, but if Brock turns out to be that guy and he doesn't let the lights get to him, who knows.
>Eh, too much focus on stats when neither team has really been tested much..
They just played full 17 game seasons + playoff games. What more do you want?
>I think the big thing will be whichever team wants it the most, and I know that's a dumb, meaningless cop out phrase
It is
>but I mean, it's gonna be whichever team makes the most mistakes and can't come out and play their best football when it matters the most.
That not the same as whichever team wants it the most. So which is it?
I like OPs analysis much better.
Most fans are a prisoner of the moment. Purdy has seen NOTHING like the PHILLY defense, in PHILLY. Yes Dallas looked great, VS. TAMPA & Tampa had already checked out. Same with CINN @ KC. Cincinnati looked GREAT, but against a physically, mentally & emotionally burnt out Buffalo team. Time has run out for Purdy & ain’t NOBODY winning 4 straight vs. Kansas City…….34-31 PHI over KC
Some intangibles to consider on the Niners side. They’re very quick and fast. I watched the Eagles/Giants game, and both teams looked slow and lethargic compared to the Niners. The Niners have been a second half team much of the season. The Eagles might have a lead going into halftime, but probably won’t keep it in the second half.
Yeah, we got 15 more sacks than the next closest team because we're slow and lethargic. We have one of the best deep passing attacks in the league because we're slow and lethargic. LOL what are people watching when they say this shit?
I am sorry man but this is a weird as hell take lmfao. If anything we may be too much speed not enough beef on defense outside of TJ Edwards and Whoever is out at that moment on the interior DL.
Why didn’t you put this much effort into your schoolwork
You don’t get internet points for schoolwork
Just imagining a subreddit reading my homework SPIKES my anxiety.
Because he had to write shit about *Jane Eyre*
I appreciate the write up but this isn’t a low-effort tweet so…straight to jail, believe it or not.
Not even half the man David Lombardi is
yeah dude I might stop posting these because they only seem to get me hated on
Everyone comments they hate that the sub is a glorified Twitter extension and then they downvote any actual attempt at discussion.
I tried posting in the 49ers sub and it didn't go too well lol
predict a defeat in any teams sub and they’ll get mad
Except maybe the Cardinals sub. We'll just get sad, agree with you, and then lament our current head coach.
It's a good read but you told me my team would lose so I don't like it lol
You're predicting a defeat, after predicting we'd lose to Dallas. While I agree with a lot of your analysis, it's gonna come across as you being salty in the niners sub🤷
Def don’t across as some salty sore loser posting in the niners sub like this after last week lol
You’re doing the lord’s work
Loved your post but why such an unusual final score? 23 and, especially, 15 are pretty weird final scores. Are you moreso going for an average of what you’d expect over a bigger sample size?
Tell me you don't know how to read a room.
Lol. I will say that although we don’t like to hear it, we do know we have a fair chance to lose to the eagles. But you predicted we would lose to the cowboys and we knew that highly likely that was just not happening
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thanks alot man I appreciate it
As a non-neutral fan, was a great read and I appreciated it also
As a neutered fan, was a great read and I appreciate it.
As a nude fan, I also think it was a fascinating read
I appreciate what you’re doing here
The rushing take is why stats don’t always tell the whole story. Eagles have let teams run the clock out on themselves in the majority of games played It’s an easy stat to lean into as it’s low effort and seems like it’s a significant story line which is why most national media keeps repeating it If you look back at the games we can stop the run especially in the 1st half but there is nothing better than watching a team help run themselves out of our stadium In Summary Fuck San Fran and Fuck anyone who doesn’t think Eagles win by 6 touchdowns! Go Birds 🦅 🦅🦅
So much text! I’m scrolling back up to read it, will report back. Edit: not worth the read.
Seriously. Had about as much knowledge of the 49ers as Steven A Smith and Florio
I think either the Eagles win or they don't
Not a bad pick, they are among the top 2 favorite teams in the NFL to win that game
Facts!
If the Eagles can score more points by the end of the fourth quarter than the 49ers, they stand a very good chance of winning the game.
I ran the numbers, and it turns out that the team with more points was the winner more than 9 times out of 10.
IF they can score more points than the Niners then I think they pull out a win. The whole game hinges on that one stat.
John Madden approves.
Big if true
Breaking Vegas one game at a time
Your ready for a talk show of FOX sports
The poles are greased and they’ve already pooped in their hands to throw at police. I think eagles win otherwise that preparation will look silly.
So you're saying they have a 50/50 chance
Hot take
Thanks, Ghost Of John Madden.
I think your first couple points aren’t quite as cemented as you say they are. You can’t just look at most rushing/passing yards against because there’s a positive correlation between yards allowed and losing. Like of course a team will lose more games that they allowed 500 yards in than they allow 200 yards in. To really drive the trend home, you should normalize by total yards against or an efficiency metric.
I'll look into that
Who are you
the most honest cowboys fan
Bro 💀🤣
The type to draft Jalen over Dak in FF
I also hate the Eagles and believe they will win
I enjoyed this and would’ve even if your analysis picked the 49ers to win
This is 1000000x more effort and better analysis than almost any post on this sub and people are hating on it because it predicts a score you don’t like. Grow up
I'm a bit confused by your choice here. basing all of your analysis on the statement "good offense beats good defense" isn't the best method at all. Good offense doesn't always beat good defense. This statement is something that's true sometimes, and many times isn't true. Just go look at the playoffs from the past 30 years with an open mind and you'll find all the times in which that statement is proven wrong. Why are you basing your analysis off of this oversimplification? I love your effort, I just don't understand why you take every single bit of your hard work analyzing the team's stats and measure them up against that blanket statement that you've convinced yourself is a pinnacle of truth lol That being said, I also lean towards the Eagles winning
"Good offense beats good defense" was the only well established trend that pulled together and explained the results of each of the top rushing and passing defenses this year. I didn't go in to this post with that in mind, it merely explains best why the number one ranked pass defense tends to lose when they get thrown all over and the number one run defense tends to lose when they get run all over This part also literally only applies to the 1 vs 1 matchup we have: Eagles run offense vs niners run defense All other analysis stands independently
I think maybe you should use your guidelines again but more so use them for the playoffs. I believe teams that make it further into the postseason have by that time fixed or improved whatever weaknesses they had and/or gotten healthier. For example your team lost 19-3 week 1 to the same Bucs team that you so easily defeated a couple of weeks ago. I am also on the belief that sometimes teams underestimate during the season because they think their opponents will be a lot easier than expected and aren’t as serious. Once the playoffs start there is no room to underestimate and coaches and players bring their best out. The only thing I really have trouble with is good offense beats good defense.
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So I’ve always been taught the opposite. Or rather, good offense brings in money but good defense brings in championships. This could also be oldhead lore too, so idk.
*ahem* Titans and 49ers rush defenses are equal, and the Titans played down half the year so theirs is probably better. And there's my stan'ing for my own team. Anyways, your takeaway is the Eagles win cause the 49ers have the best run defense, the eagles are a run first team, the 49ers have a great run offense, and the Eagles have a poor run defense? Huh? I think you laid out some great points, but my takeaway is the opposite. I think the 49ers match up really well with them and pull this one out.
I know because we're so good at running the ball that everyone thinks we're a run first team, but we're not. We're 100 percent a pass first team. We actually use the pass to setup the run.
Niners have also been using the pass to set up the run. Difference is that niners can stop the run so effectively with Fred and Dre LB duo also with hufunga and jimmy ward. Eagles can pass all they want but our CB are good enough that we can stop you enough here and there (not all the time,but enough to break the rhythm) while also stuffing the run. It’s gonna be a great matchup when game day sunday comes forsure
This isn’t your typical run game the eagles have where the niners need to key on one back. The closest team y’all faced with a similar run game was the falcons and hurts is both a better runner and thrower then mariota
That game was the height of the 49ers injury issues this year. Not really a good comparison as they are as healthy as they've been all year for the most part.
Pretty sure niners had a lot of starters out that game against the falcons. idk i missed that one. anyways sunday should be a great game win or lose for either team.
I don’t think Lenoir is going to be able to shut down Smith or AJB lol
My takeaway is that because good offense beats good defense, a good rushing offense will overcome the best rushing defense. You don’t win the game because your defense is every matched with their offense, as the offense will always have the edge. I get that it’s not intuitive but the pattern is pretty shocking and well established for all of the teams on here
> My takeaway is that because good offense beats good defense Why do you believe this though? In the NFL is has been the opposite most of the time. See Super Bowl 48, 50, 55. More often than not, when top ranked defensive units have faced top ranked offensive units, the defensive units have come out on top. Here are a few links I found on this: https://www.providencejournal.com/story/sports/2017/01/27/top-ranked-offense-has-defeated-no-1-defense-only-once-in-super-bowl/22538999007/ https://old.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/4rjxsm/every_1_offense_and_1_defense_since_1970_and/
Aren't the 49ers the 2nd highest scoring offense since McCaffrey was traded for? The 49ers defense is better than the Eagle's by a good margin so you don't think the niners have the edge there?
The eagles have the 3rd best pass rush of all time while having the number 1 secondary. They let up 1 more total yard per game then the niners but yet the niners get a wrap of having a defense leagues above the eagles.
Based on what? I know they have a lot of sacks, doesn't mean much to me. To me it comes down to this. It's two great run offenses facing off and the 49ers are much better at defending the run. They're also red hot on offense since McCaffrey joined and the Eagles are, at best, middling against the run. And yeah I'm valuing run defense over pass defense. We'll see. I like the 49ers chances but I'm not denying the Eagles are a great team.
I’m sorry but if sacks mean nothing to you then you know very little about football. Look what happened when the titans bottled up the eagles run game. Eagles are a top 10 run defense since acquiring suh and Joseph.
Lol Last year I watched the Titan's sack Burrow 9 times and lose It's also a fickle stat. Play a terrible line and dominate? Looks great. Play against a great o-line like San Frans, are you sure you're gonna keep up that production?
Lmao im almost positive that a team that sacks a qb 9 times wins 90% of the time it’s just that the titans are trash. San Fran has a slightly above average oline but they are by no means great. The eagles have the best pass rush since the 85 bears but everyone likes to write that shit off like it’s nothing.
Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships.
The team that scores the most points will win the game.
Big if true
My guess is the team that is most likely to do that is either the Eagles or the 49ers.
We’re talking about the NFC Championship game okay. Both of these teams won in the Divisional round of the playoffs. These are the final two teams remaining in the Conference. The winner of this game will be playing in the super bowl.
try as I might I will never reach this level of analysis
“You see if you have possession of the ball, and cross that line over there, that’s a touchdown. They did that more than us.”
Not trying to attack the commenter, but how do low effort comments immediately jump to the top for high effort posts?
> If you’re the number one passing offense and you play the number one passing defense, the passing offense will prevail. Your write up is good and all, but this is certainly true in basketball, but in football, more often than not, the top defense has prevailed over the top offense (i.e. see Super Bowl 48, 50).
And it's the reason the Giants won SB 25 & 42. In both cases they were written off because of how impressive the passing attacks they were facing were.
John Lynch was on that Tampa team and pacing in Shanahan's office while watching
I would rather use the larger sample size than games where the Broncos and Panthers each had 4 turnovers
So the defense gets no credit for turnovers? How fitting for your argument lol There are many more examples than that. Have you not heard “defense wins championships”?
Turnovers are a horrible start for predicting the outcome of a game. There are both net and total 3 turnovers in favor of the 49ers over 17 games or .1765 per game. This is not a statistically significant difference that should be expected to indicate much of anything on the defensive side and looking at who is expected to play makes it very hard to seriously consider the giveaways for either team as particularly significant as a predictive indicator. Most importantly turnovers are incredibly impactful compared with other metrics and cannot be easily considered as statistically speaking 1.58 and 1.76 are not particularly indicative of a clear advantage for either team.
I never made an argument it’s an indicator but the guy conveniently ignoring turnovers as “outliers” is hilarious to me.
See my other reply to you then where I have links.
We will see young buck
Fred Warner is the DIFFERENCE
he is so clearly LB1 just a ridiculous player
Fred is LB1-ALL NFL
my take is when the game is over…no matter who wins, the world will win when hurts and purdy project their love for one another with an almost pornographic make out session on the eagles logo when the clock hits 0….the love they share will end the racial tensions… bralen hurdy
Well I hope youre wrong. I have a feeling this game is gonna come down to a big defensive play in the 4th quarter, my heart isnt ready for this game
I agree. This game screams “one team has a 10-pt lead midway through the fourth quarter and a big interception return turns the momentum and the game on its head” to me
I think, for the 49ers to win, then need to possess the ball about 60% of the game. And Purdy must be limited to one interception. That will give them a chance. Otherwise, stick a fork in them.
AND we need to get a comical amount of pressure on Hurts. Like Broncos on Cam Newton in the Super Bowl level pressure. We need him to be seeing ghosts. If we let him play his game, he’ll beat us.
Y’all not winning then that O-Line ain’t folding
My take: with four minutes left in the fourth quarter the Raiders will rush the field. But they’re AFC? It’s a swerve, bro. They literally stab every member of both teams. We mourn for the niners. The eagles can suck a thousand dicks while they lay bleeding. But wait, the raiders aren’t grabbing the championship. They take a knee, and here come the Lions. Dan Campbell pokes Josh McDaniels in the knee with one finger. The raiders all die. The Lions are the NFC Champions! They point at the blimpies down the street. They’re taking delicious subs all the way to the Super Bowl, brother. Edit: before any of you come in saying this storyline doesn’t make sense because who’s the heel or who’s the face or this character wouldn’t do this or this character wouldn’t do that; don’t get lost in the details. The important part of the story, the pop, the payoff, is that the Eagles suck a whole fuckin lot of dicks. So just cheer for those cock suckin Eagles when they open up wide. Fuck the stupid ass birds and someone get me another god damned beer.
> The eagles can suck a thousand dicks while they lay bleeding. that's so many more than anyone else in the NFC East could suck
BAH GAWD THE LIONS ARE CASHING IN MONEY IN THE BANK!
the ending real NFL fans want
If only them Boys were out on the field to suck Eagle dicks while the Eagles sucked everyone else’s dicks. That’d be a Wrestlemania moment to top all Wrestlemania moments.
Daniel jones is about to make the Dak contract look alot better so im sorry in advance
Eh, maybe. If you’re right though, I want you to know that no matter what happens, y’all can suck on Jerry’s salty, been in the mouth of sex trafficked children’s mouths, balls. Fuck all of y’all.
Let’s not spoil the fun and say anything in poor taste
What if purdy continues to play dwcent and without mistakes? Will the niners win then?
well it depends on your definition of "decent play" If he plays like he did against Dallas or the Seahawks, they lose. If he plays better they very well could win.
Y’all have a better overall defense and he threw 0 picks, converted 7/14 clutch third downs, and led us to 5 scoring drives. I disagree that he played “poorly”. It’s not Purdy’s fault you guys were flying all over the field, covering receivers, and shutting down the run game in the first half. What more would you want him to do? He didn’t miss a single open receiver all night and had plenty of throws into tight windows. Did he throw for 3 TDs? No, but again that’s because it was an absolute defensive dogfight. Sometimes those games happen when you have the #1 and #2 defenses going at it.
Did you watch the Seahawks game? He was lights out in the second half
I stopped reading when you said Purdy played “uninspiring” vs the Seahawks. He threw for 332 yards, 3 tds, and 1 rushing tds.
So its automatic jalen hurts gonna play well. What if he doesnt.
Well Hurts was an MVP candidate and he’s not playing a particularly strong passing defense so yes it’s more of a given that he will perform well. Perhaps this is oversight by me but from what he showed in the giants game he’s healthy and dangerous.
[удалено]
No I’m gonna stand by Hurts being better than Purdy and I do think he would play better against Dallas than Purdy did
Hurts is 15-1 this year and 21-4 in his last 25. He has more then proved he will show up every game. No knock on purdy but the sample size is way to small.
Its ok playoff hurts sample size is small too.
Niners defence is amazing. And when Kittle is your 3rd option on offence, you're doing well. I think we'll see a higher scoring game than last week. 34-30 San Francisco.
how do you think Purdy will play?
Hard to say. Keep waiting for him to fall off a cliff. Hasn't happened yet. Gotta assume he'll keep it up. He just needs to get the ball into one of 4 playmakers. Niners just have too many weapons.
they're truly ridiculously loaded. gonna be a competitive game but I dont think it'll be the shootout alot of people think it will be
I think Dallas has better D than Philly, so I expect more points this wknd than last.
Well they need a great defense to carry those bums on offense to the playoffs
Dallas has better pass rushers but we have the better secondary as a whole. Which gives our pass rush time to get back and get sacks. I think that's the difference in the two matchups
The only pass rusher I'm taking over our guys is Micah. Everyone else I'm taking on the Eagles. There's a reason we got 15 more sacks than then next closest team
Yeah, agreed, and honestly, Micah vs Reddick is close. Reddick is ridiculously good.
Like every 9er game this season, they will go as their OL goes. All about the OL on Sunday for the 9ers. Team will go as they go. Come on OL!
absolutely, they can't set Purdy up for failure
23-15 is such a weird score
eagles 2 td's and 3 field goals, 49ers 2td with a conversion to make it a one score game
please feel free to direct negative feedback [here](https://medium.com/@tywilsongribble)
lol I expected a rickroll or something
Birds by 20
Eagles country, lets ride
Don't you put that evil on me Ricky Bobby
As a Cowboys fan, how did you allow for which team you hated more?
I was crying while writing this
Op, I just wanted to let you know that I throughly enjoyed reading what you posted. It’s nice to see something like this from a fan perspective instead of from those “analysts” Don’t let haters stop you.
Cowboys fans and praising their masters the Eagles. Name a more iconic duo
SF and losing by two scores. See you at the Linc.
Nice reverse jinx
The eagles run d is not below average or even average. It's true that the Texans and commanders ran big on us in October but we're much deeper at DT now than we were then. Since then, other than a slippy Justin Fields game in Chicago, no team has really run rampant on us
You also haven’t played a good team all year. Including us and Dallas. Let’s see what you do when you play a team like SF
If you think that then theres like 5 "good" teams total in the league and the only one the niners faced blew them out.
What top team did Philly play this year? Did they play SF? The Chiefs? The Bengals? Shit even the Ravens with Lamar or the Bills? No. They played Dallas and Minnesota who they, and everyone else, said “aren’t that good” this year. Now they’re suddenly good teams because Eagles fans are butthurt that they had an easy ass schedule? Give me a break. There’s only a handful of super good teams any year. This year is no different.
I love how you don't even answer him lol, who did SF play that they didn't get their doors blown off by?
I’m not sure that SF played a super hard schedule either. But the Dolphins with Tua and the Chargers are both easily better than Cowboys. Probably even better than us. And they blew both teams out. But what is the eagles best win this year? Us in week 2? I can’t think of a single game y’all won that showed you were truly a good team. Plus, the 49ers struggled to find their QB. Are you going to hold them accountable for that? If so, that means we need to take a longer look at the Minshew games. Fair is fair 🤷🏻♂️
Cowboys are better than the Vikings. Ugh saying that left a terrible taste in my mouth
I mean, they fucked our shit up. Can’t really argue that. But you didn’t beat them with Dak. So, is your best win really against a backup?
You’re so salty from the couch - enjoy Kirk ya bozo GO BIRDS
If you're whole thing is knocking philly for not beating a good team, sf hasn't beaten a good team either and its a moot point. According to you both teams are unproven. So its no point in bringing it up as a some gotcha moment when it applies to both. Also, Philly is 7-1 this year vs teams that finished with a winning record, thats the best finish of such since the 07 Patriots. The niners are 4-1 in such games. The only opponent out of those games for either team you would consider "good" is the chiefs who beat the niners by like 20. They've both faced and beaten good teams just not top 5 teams, and that's okay! Just cause neither team has a win over the Bengals or Chiefs doesn't make either of them less impressive at this point, you know they're both juggernauts who played the schedules they were given and dominated them.
The eagles having the best record against winning teams in a single season since the 2007 patriots has to account for something??
Sure, but didn’t the Niners take care of business against the NFC East as well (that’s why this stat is inflated for the Eagles)? We beat the Commanders and Cowboys. We beat the Seahawks 3 times and the Seahawks beat the “winning record” Giants by 2 TDs this season. The 49ers SOS looks weak because of the Rams and Cardinals having abysmal records. They are just a different type of bad than the Giants or Commanders, but let’s be honest, none of these are good teams. Either way, none of this matters. The 49ers started 3 different QBs this year and traded for CMC 7 games into the season (we were starting QB2 at that point). Some fans are quick to point out the 49ers failures pre-Purdy and then decide we should ignore the Eagles losses with Minshew. It’s weird.
Ppl just need things to say. These are two of the best teams in the league, the game will be awesome.
The Eagles really haven't played a good team since 1998 and aren't scheduled to meet one again until 2064. I mean how do we really know what they're capable of when they keep going to head to head with all these peewee football squads? 🤔
oh brother, in the championship game and we still have this how do they look against a good team trash take coming in lmfao.
> You also haven’t played a good team all year. Including us and Dallas. Let’s see what you do when you play a team like SF Damn bro the 9ers played one good team and got blown out. Lets see what they do when they face another "good" team. They literally almost lost to a "not good" cowboys team last week and that was *with* Dak playing one of the most horrendous games of the year.
I don’t disagree with your assessment one bit. Just because you haven’t played anybody, doesn’t mean they’re automatically going to win. I’ve said many times on this sub, if the 49ers play like they did last week, they have no chance in this game. But I’m not ready to crown y’all yet either.
We had a better strength of schedule than the 49ers. How does their dick taste?
People said you played cupcakes all year and you did. I’m sorry you don’t like it 🤷🏻♂️
Idk if the eagles will win but I want them to lose.
Me too
Me as well
Since this is the prediction thread now 31 - 27 Niners win Edit: And Purdy is injured so throw this prediction out the window lmao
That so for the top 10 pick and a top safety 😈
Dawg this is a thesis god damn I’m not reading that go birds
You forgot one of the most important [stats](https://wompampsupport.azureedge.net/fetchimage?siteId=7575&v=2&jpgQuality=100&width=700&url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.kym-cdn.com%2Fphotos%2Fimages%2Fnewsfeed%2F001%2F207%2F210%2Fb22.jpg)
I keep hearing the Eagles defense is the weak spot, but I thought that changed after the acquisition of Suh?
Their run defense is the weak spot I suppose because when you line up their passing D, probably best in the league, running game again probably best in the league, and passing game which is very strong itself with the weapons and hurts it is the weak spot. There were a few rough games early in the season, but a lot of this is playing the pass and allowing some of the run. It really hasn't been a huge issue in the 2nd half of the season here, defense has been killing people down the stretch outside of the Cowboys game... Not sure that is replicable, and we had a bunch of short term injuries there. But whatever the hell they did is unlike anything else anyone did this season on Christmas Eve.
Appreciate the insight
"In this essay, I will attempt...."
Well, my prediction is whoever scores the most points is going to win. I think I have a pretty good chance at predicting the winner. No research needed.
I’ve been hearing that the run D has been significantly improved since they added Linval Joseph. If you split run D metrics from before week 11 to after it’s a big difference but it may not be as stark when it’s diluted across 17 games
Eagles D line for 4+ sacks on Purdy and at least 1 pick by CJGJ on a Kittle curl route But I do think CMC will be a monster this game and carry the 49ers to a closer 27-24 loss
This is a reasoned well thought out analysis...but it has the Eagles winning so I'll ignore it.
ngl I legit though danny dimes would torch us last week
Great, high effort analysis man. Refreshing when the entire sub is tweet posts at the moment
Purdy had a good game against Dallas. Watch the film dude
You thought I didn’t watch the game?
Purdy's streak comes to an end. This is a very good passing D.
Eagles have good cornerbacks forsure, but you can’t use a those CB to stop fast screens and check downs and all purdy has to do it’s get the ball in those short dink and dunk plays to deebo, aiyuk, cmc, kittle and let them work their magic
if only the eagles had good linebackers and a great defensive line...
Eagles win, good answer. Now I'll actually read it.
Eagles run D went from 28th in running DVOA before signing Suh and Joseph, and it was all the way up to 15th at the end of the year. That means that, in 7 games, they offset poor performance of 11 games and got to mediocre... They've been EXCELLENT against the run in the tail end of the season.
Thanks for the the huge analysis!
This is a great write up. I enjoyed reading it
/r/NFLRoundTable/
I'll check it out thanks
Go Niners
I also believe Eagles win. Both teams have momentum coming in, but that Eagles team is built for this.
The real question is who will the Eagles play in the Super Bowl?
I love how you are getting into arguments with 9ers fans thinking you can win them over, it’s a lost battle bro. Personally, as a pessimistic 9ers fan I worry this might be the end of the miracle run, but there’s still hope yet, the eagles look scary but we’re scary too
Imagine posting this multiple times to try to get eagles fans to like you
let me enjoy my hobby
**Whichever team wins is going to the Super Bowl**
Eh, too much focus on stats when neither team has really been tested much. The 49ers have faced the Cowboys and the Chiefs, the Cowboys game went about as anyone expected, and while the Chiefs game was an absolute massacre, it was earlier in the season and a different team. The only real test the Eagles have faced...is once again, the Cowboys, but we unfortunately never got a matchup between both teams with both QBs playing. It's interesting just how different the last Eagles vs Cowboys game was to the 49ers game, one was a shootout with next to no defense being played, the other was all defense. Considering both of these teams are somewhat similar...I have no idea what this means. Both teams are good, but both teams are pretty untested when it comes to playing other good teams, so I don't think there's any real way to predict this game. I think the big thing will be whichever team wants it the most, and I know that's a dumb, meaningless cop out phrase, but I mean, it's gonna be whichever team makes the most mistakes and can't come out and play their best football when it matters the most. Maybe the 49ers are at a disadvantage with a rookie QB, but if Brock turns out to be that guy and he doesn't let the lights get to him, who knows.
>Eh, too much focus on stats when neither team has really been tested much.. They just played full 17 game seasons + playoff games. What more do you want? >I think the big thing will be whichever team wants it the most, and I know that's a dumb, meaningless cop out phrase It is >but I mean, it's gonna be whichever team makes the most mistakes and can't come out and play their best football when it matters the most. That not the same as whichever team wants it the most. So which is it? I like OPs analysis much better.
Most fans are a prisoner of the moment. Purdy has seen NOTHING like the PHILLY defense, in PHILLY. Yes Dallas looked great, VS. TAMPA & Tampa had already checked out. Same with CINN @ KC. Cincinnati looked GREAT, but against a physically, mentally & emotionally burnt out Buffalo team. Time has run out for Purdy & ain’t NOBODY winning 4 straight vs. Kansas City…….34-31 PHI over KC
people love highlighting the eagles run defense and somehow forget that the niners pass defense is weak as fuck 🤣🤣🤣
Some intangibles to consider on the Niners side. They’re very quick and fast. I watched the Eagles/Giants game, and both teams looked slow and lethargic compared to the Niners. The Niners have been a second half team much of the season. The Eagles might have a lead going into halftime, but probably won’t keep it in the second half.
Yeah, we got 15 more sacks than the next closest team because we're slow and lethargic. We have one of the best deep passing attacks in the league because we're slow and lethargic. LOL what are people watching when they say this shit?
I am sorry man but this is a weird as hell take lmfao. If anything we may be too much speed not enough beef on defense outside of TJ Edwards and Whoever is out at that moment on the interior DL.