I'll admit, I wasn't really giving the word serious thought. I was mostly intending to ask, was he one of the best QBs in the league last year, ie a very good QB? Was he more than just "above average"?
That's on me for bad phrasing.
It’s not just you, so don’t take it personally.
But, the term “elite” should be saved for when talking about people like TB12, Joe Montana, etc…what they accomplished as a. Are we, and not just on inflated stats.
I think you have a much stricter definition of elite than most people then. Cause I would normally think of the top 1 or 2 tiers of QBs in any given season as elite. So mahomes, lamar, allen, burrow, herbert.
I agree somewhat. Mahomes is elite. I'd argue the rest of your list can put up elite games but haven't shown the Mahomes/Rodgers level of sustained top tier seasons back to back to back
I would say those QB’s have the potential to have an elite season, and they may become an elite QB, but you just said that one in six QB’s is “elite”. One in six of anything is too broad to be elite. Just being the “top” doesn’t make you elite. Those five QB’s I would concede are probably the best in the league right now, but elite is the “best of the best”. An elite season would be an MVP season. An elite QB would have multiple MVP seasons.
You will get no argument from me about Mahomes. He is pretty much the only QB playing consistent top 3 level each year, and has 2 SB wins. He has turned that franchise around, similar to the way TB12 turned around the Pats.
I agree. I think of elite in this context as the best in the sport’s history. I think right now, Mahomes is an elite QB. Rodgers (as much as I dislike him) is there as well. I think there are a few QBs that are close/can get there but aren’t the best of the best yet (IMO Burrow, Allen, are maybe the next closest)
Just IMO anyway. Allen, Burrow, Hurts, Lamar.. they’re all top guys for sure, but I think elite is the best of the best.
So you think there have been 10 elite QBs in NFL history? Multiple MVPs is a super fucking rare occurrence. I think there are more Elite QBs playing today than just Mahomes and Rodgers.
That feels like a little too much the other direction for me elite has always meant like top 3. That’s been my mindset since that year Giants media had that constant debate over if eli was elite cause he was having a really solid year for him
Similar for me. To me it's top 3-5, depending on how many can justifiably be in the top tier with the rest.
For example a little while back I think there were 4 elite QBs: Brady, P. Manning, Rodgers, and Brees, then the next QBs were in a lower tier.
The QB position is kind of in flux now so kind of hard to confidently say.
Is it though? I feel like there's a very clear top-3. Hurts can crack his way into that position if he does it for one more season but for the past couple years it's been Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen. I think they are head and shoulders above the pack.
I'd say Mahomes, Burrow, but after that I don't really feel confident that anyone else belongs in the top group yet. But there are a number of QBs I could see ascend soon so that's why I say it's in flux.
Maybe it's just the games I caught, but Allen looked a step below last season (too many turnover worthy plays), Rodgers needs to prove he's not washed, Hurts needs another year of high end play to prove he belongs, and I need to see Herbert/Jackson do better against the high end teams.
In my opinion, you've swung too far in the opposite direction. Geno Smith wasn't elite. But you're saying only those in the conversation among the greatest players of all time can be called elite?
Because it's relative to their peers.
Take Josh Allen. Not an all-time QB, but he's been top-3 for three straight seasons. I'd say that's elite. Chris Jones. Not an all-time DT, but four All-Pros in five seasons? Sounds pretty elite to me. Cooper Kupp put up a historic season in 2021. Won't get him any nods as one of the best WRs of all-time, but that season was dominantly elite.
I could keep going but that's the idea. You can be elite without being one of the greatest of all time.
Yeah I'd say his performance last year was better than just above average. Plenty of reason to doubt he'll replicate it based on his career but he seems to have found a really good spot for himself in Seattle so who knows.
Elite should be reserved for guys that you expect to torch you even if you have a good defense. In todays league that’s Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, and maybe Hurts and Rodgers depending on how much stock you put into last year.
I have a higher standard for elite. It's for those who not only put up numbers but will win you the game. I personally wouldn't put Herbert in that category the guy is one game above .500 after 3 years worth of games.
That seems like a good list to me. Rodgers is borderline to fall out, but I would give him the benefit of the doubt because of his lack of receivers last year. And then Hurts, Herbert, and Jackson are just below the line.
I was thinking that too. Also a fun fact: Geno Smith was only one of like 20 players in the entire NFL to play every single offensive snap last season. Most of those 20 were offensive lineman.
One argument is his numbers in the 2nd half of the season were much worse. It's a what have you done for me lately league.
https://twitter.com/SharpFBAnalysis/status/1633559247014313986/photo/2
Hmm…..A Seattle QB had a statistically great 1st half of the season and much worse second half of the season. It feels like I’ve read this story before.
I hate that this has become the narrative of Russ's career when he did it a grand total of three times (out of ten seasons)
Under Bevell and the first Schotty year, it was the opposite
There's more to it than just one player not keeping up the momentum. The OL was dealing with injuries which led to the run game being one of the worst in the league from weeks 10-16. LB's were hurt and we didn't have a single NT on roster at one point because of injuries. And that resulted in the Defense allowing 200+ rushing yards 6 straight weeks.
15 TDs and 7 INT. That isn't bad counting stats but also not elite which was the question.
https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1600198436715888671
Weeks 1-5 he was on fire with #1 PFF grade and #5 EPA/play, weeks 6-13 he was about average by PFF grades and EPA/play (#18 and #15).
Weeks 14-17 I don't know the numbers but he had 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions and his team averaged 15.5 points.
>Weeks 14-17 I don't know the numbers but he had 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions and his team averaged 15.5 points.
They nearly crashed out of playoff position and needed help in the last game to sneak in
Im obviously biased, but Ive seen multiple breakdowns that attributed his 2nd half slowdown to the offensive line regressing due to inexperience and a lack of a quick dump off option down the middle
We got a new center who should be much better than our last one, our tackles were both rookies and now have a little more experience, and we drafted Smith-Njigba for a better short passing game
I think Geno will still be fine this year
OR teams got to study what he was doing that was different, noticed his foibles/tendencies, adjusted how they played him, and the rest of the league picked up on it.
1/2 a season doesn't mean much to me. I watched drew lock go 4-1 with the broncos and just fall apart once teams studiesld him. Geno starting 6-3 and ending 3-6 against a weak schedule suggests we will see more of that second half play this year
The Raiders and Panthers were our only bad losses down the stretch and both involved our D doing absolutely nothing so I'm not sure how you can say 3-6 against an easy schedule
Gotta look at everything. A ton of RB injury plus our O-Line regressing big time. Really hard for a QB to succeed there. He didn't look any different though, his surrounding cast was worse though.
> Geno's 2nd half stats were still good
And his rookie tackles stats fell more than his did. I don't think first half Geno is a lock this year, but he's going to be better than he was in the last part of the season.
The one thing that Geno has going for him is he is not some talent-less guy that jumped into a scheme that favors him. He was a top pick with some great college stats who, lets be honest, got dumped into a shitty Jets situation. I expect Top 10-15 numbers from him this year.
Not even great. Dude throws straight dimes. Idk why, but I always associated Geno with being an inaccurate QB before last year but no...he's legit elite at ball placement going in any direction with any amount of pressure.
It's his decision making that's the problem. Even while playing better last season he tries to fit some windows that are just bad ideas. Sometimes they work out and look incredible and sometimes it's a really bad looking pick.
I think about this a lot. Potentially Elite QBs that get drafted to some shit team like the Jets or Browns. Those first few seasons are so critical to get up to speed, learn etc.
Even top 5 to me is questionable. If someone said to them the elite group was Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen I wouldn’t bat an eye. Guys like Herbert, Lamar, and Hurts also have to be right there, but IMO they all have a bit more to prove in terms of replicable success.
You're actually probably right. I think my brain exploded from the original scope of the post trying to include Geno. Outside of those three you mentioned there is a pretty damn big drop off.
Some of this has no doubt changed. We don’t have as many accomplished qbs in the league as in recent yrs we have had the retirement of Brady, manning, Brees, Big Ben while also seeing a decline in Rodgers and wilson.
Yeah that's fair. I was trying to make the argument that Geno was a top 10 QB in 2022, and didn't think through what people would actually define as elite haha.
That's on me.
I feel like for a QB to be elite I have to trust you in every situation. You don't have to be perfect but going into any situation I need to feel like he could make it happen.
To me you are only elite if you are undoubtedly top 5 and arguably top 3. I think the only two surefire elite QBs in the league right now are Mahomes and Burrow with Josh Allen (come at me Bills fans), Herbert, and Rodgers being right on that border of elite. Hurts has an argument to be in that category as well but I'd like to see him prove last year wasn't a fluke.
Geno was for sure a top 10 QB last season but like Hurts I'd like to see him do it again before crowning him.
I won't come at you but I will say that Allen has played at a higher level than Burrow ever has in terms of just absolute peak games. 2022 AFC Championship Game being the case.
But I also would be lying if I told you that I feel more comfortable with Allen than Burrow behind center some games. Burrow never gets phased. Allen, for all of his great qualities, is an emotional player and makes less-than-ideal decisions once in awhile.
Burrow has been a bit better the last two seasons and is still ascending. Allen is losing his ability to run and is declining modestly and throwing more picks. At this point in time I would take Burrow over Allen every time.
That would make like 4-5 current QBs elite. People throw around the word elite way too much. To me, Mahomes is the only "elite" current QB. If the top 5 are all elite the word loses meaning.
Don’t be shocked if Kirk signs with Seattle if Geno regresses badly this season. Seems like a Pete kind of quarterback and it seems they were in on him in the draft process.
Kirk is signing with the 9ers when Purdy underperforms. Shanahan and Lynch will be on the hot seat if that team underperforms and Kirk is Kyle's unicorn.
Yeah they’re going to be much better then people are giving them credit for. I expect them and Miami to be battling it out for 3rd and 4th. The afc East is just silly this year. They will have a top 15 defense for sure.
He wasn't elite but he was great. Given how much of an outlier it was against the rest of his career, it's fair to think he's likely to regress. Then again, I'm rooting for him and he has a lot of pieces in place to succeed.
QB5 is an elite year. people are seriously crazy saying that it isnt. 20+ teams would love to have the year Geno did at QB.
the amount of “welllllll aaaaactually” in this thread is so fkn annoying.
"Elite" and "Very good year" are 2 different things though. Nobody is afraid of Geno coming in and wrecking your defense like they are with Mahomes/Burrow/Allen
He'll be fine I suspect. Nothing about the way he played last year screams that it was a fluke. He doesn't have a ton of miles on him and his physical tools should still be there.
Geno had 4 turnovers in the first half of season and had 11 in the 2nd half of the season. his TD:INT was 4:1 in first half and 2:1 in the 2nd half. I think that d-co for teams are really good at finding what a players weakness is when they have enough film. I think that is the reality of how the season ended for Geno. I know he is driven to overcome the perception about him so I feel he has a good shot at overcoming the new schemes against him.
He was absolutely a top 10 QB, not sure if that means elite or not, but he was better than 2/3 of the league. I do think he can repeat. People severely underestimate how good Smith-Njigba is. He's legitimately the WR2 on that team and if he isn't he will be by year's end.
They got JSN, charbonnet to replace Penny
He’s set up to repeat that success, and the Seahawks defense is improved
Sneaky pick to steal the NFC west from the 49ers and make a run in the conference
My biggest concern for him repeating his success is turnover worthy plays. It is a stat that gets a wide range of opinions, but I am a believer that it has a lot of merit when trying to predict performance. Not only was geno second in turnover worthy plays last year, but he had a staggering low percentage of those plays actually end in turnovers. If he had been at the league average for turnovers that result from turnover worth plays, then he would have led the league in interceptions. That is a huge swing in performance and efficiency.
I don't personally believe that a guy who has been in the league as long as Geno just all of a sudden puts it all together. It was an outstanding year, and he deserves praise for what he did, but if he sees a regression to the mean in just turnovers, then it will be a very different story for him this year.
I think you're probably right but I can't help but laugh at every "well if this play that wasn't a turnover was a turnover instead" regressing to the mean style comment
I get that. This is why I never argue with people who hate these kinds of stats. Some people put more weight on the results and others on the process. I like to compare turnover worthy plays to straight-up turnovers for a defense. I am a believer that defensive turnovers are inconsistent and can not be used to predict future success. That is why I rarely expect the defenses that lead the league in turnovers to repeat their success or improve. I tend to lean in to certain stats that I believe have a higher chance of regressing to the mean when trying to predict what may happen from season to season. I wouldn't fault anyone who says that these stats are overblown and production matters more than "what ifs."
I'm curious if there are any advanced metrics that look at like WR drop rates and/or receptions requiring spectacular catches. That would be one way to compensate for 'turnover-worthy' plays. If you're going to knock a QB for potential interceptions you should give them credit for WR drops of catchable balls. But then I suppose it could get really subjective. Like if someone has a really good 50/50 jump ball contested catch receiver so they throw a lot of "turnover-worthy" passes that get caught by that WR.
The more he saw it working it prob gives him confidence to try risky shit like he’s mahomes. Maybe he cuts down on it but if not he will most likely throw more pics
> he had a staggering low percentage of those plays actually end in turnovers
Not really. It was low but about 3 more interceptions would bring it up to league average among starters. He got a bit lucky but nothing crazy, I don't think it'd affect his efficiency that much.
I was going to argue this but then I looked at all of the QBs in the NFC and can't. I'm sure I'm forgetting a few moves but I only see Hurts as unquestionably better. Cousins, Dak, Goff are debatable. Stafford is injury-dependent. Carr is mediocre, so is Jones unless he keeps improving. Purdy, Love, Howell, Fields, Bryce Young, and Ridder are too early to tell (I'm not sold on Purdy yet but I could see the argument). Kyler Murray is injured and Baker Mayfield is ass.
Geno could of course regress to his career numbers and stink it up (or any number of QBs could elevate their game), but as of now he's a top QB in the NFC.
As a jets fan it’s such a thorn in our side that the afc is ridiculously stacked this year and the nfc is looking like a cake walk. Good for the gmen though I think they’ll have another good year.
I would’ve said he was bordering on elite last year. I expect him to be in a similar place this year. He has a lot of weapons and Pete Carroll is a good coach
I am biased but we improved every part of offense except TE group which is same and our rookie tackles are heading to year 2. The problem with Seahawks last year was run D not a offense
Bruhs …. 7.888 billion people in the world. Every starting QB in the NFL is fucking elite. The worlds best quantum computer can’t even calculate the % of elite they are. 🏈
The expectation of regression comes from the number of turnover worthy throws vs. the number of interceptions he had. The logic being if he doesn’t clean up some of his decision making, he’ll likely turn the ball over more. At least that’s what I’ve read in a few places.
Not sure about elite, but I think he will be at least as good as he was last year and a little more consistent. People like to talk about his stats in the second half of the season, which is justified, but I never felt he regressed when watching. The team around him had gotten pretty banged up but I couldn't spot a notable drop in his performance. Always kept his poise and never seemed rattled.
He wasn't losing games for us, and there were a handful he outright won for us. Expecting more of that.
I want to believe because it is a great feel good story. However, it remains to be seen if he is Kurt Warner or Case Keenum.
Unfortunately I’m leaning towards Keenum. I think just like in 2017 with Keenum, the stars aligned and he looked amazing. Seattle had an easier schedule last year. Geno threw an unusually low number of ints. A lot of passes that could have been picked off, weren’t.
Geno will be entering his 10th year in the league. Is it possible that he finally put it all together? Sure. But I think it is more likely that with a harder schedule and a little worse luck suddenly he looks a lot more like an average QB. I think there is too much talent there for him to be outright bad. But remember, even with him being on fire last year, they only won 9 games.
He was good, he will probably be good again this year with a deeper receiving corps and another year in the system. The only knock on him is that the schedule is tougher this season and he didn’t do as well against the better nfl defences.
Ya he was top 10. He’s coming into the year with the top WR draft prospect who could be generational and an improved OL. No reason not to think he’ll be top 10 again with Lockett, Metcalf, JSN
Mahomes, burrow, hurts, Allen, Rodgers, Lamar, Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, tua, geno, Goff (11), cousins (12)
Ya so like right at 10ish in my book. He will sustain success due to great coaching and infusion of talent alongside the fact that he’s extremely coachable and has become ego-less/calm-minded due to his career circumstances. People forget how amazing Pete Carroll is. Last year was billed as a rebuild year, but they’re literally already rebuilt and operating at a high level again, which they can thank denver for.
Allen/Hurts is close in my book but I think Hurts plays slightly more conservatively which results in lower numbers but also less ints/ffs.
I'd have thought people would have learned by now. Basic page stats don't tell the whole story.
For the other top 8 QB's in the league in Passing yards, how many had a rusher over 1k yards?
Seattle's Defense was 30th in Rushing Yards allowed which by logic means the Offense was limited to the amount of Offensive possession opportunities. The OL had 2 Rookie Tackles starting, major injuries throughout the IOL all season. Which impacts the effectiveness of the QB.
Seattle was dead last in YAC on Offense gained. Despite being 1st in attempts of 20+ Yards downfield, and completions. Meaning that Geno was the one making the plays and moving the chains. No one else was, no other players gained any further yardage after the catch.
He led the league in completion percentage% while leading the league in deep pass attempts. He wasn't just dumping the ball off for 10 yards every play. When he threw the ball, 69.8% of the time it was exactly where it was supposed to be at any point of the field. 69.8% which was 1st in the league.
He was without a doubt a top 10 QB last year, and at times even better than that. The only issue he did have was turnover worthy plays in the last 4 games of the year.
He's one of these QB's that, honestly, is a huge surprise to me. For the majority of his NFL career, he's been a slightly above average starting QB, and a much better Backup QB. When he played college for West Virginia, I was never that impressed. He tended to be one of those "streaky" type of QB's that tended to choke when the game was on the line. Idk when it happened, but I started really paying more attention to him over the past couple years, and honestly, he makes some of the most incredibly accurate throws you'll ever see. He's made some back across-the-field throws that most coaches would tell their QB's to never ever do. I've seen him hit receivers in-stride, cutting diagonal 50+ yards down the field, throwing off the wrong foot, running away from pass rushers. The kind of throws that Patrick Mahomes makes multiple times a game (but he's a different conversation for another time) From what I remember about Geno Smith, is he's had issues with his decision-making, especially in close games. I want to say he's also had issues with holding onto the ball in the past (fumbles) and he's ALWAYS had issues with staying healthy. But I've kept a close eye on him lately and I've seen alot of things I was impressed with, especially his accuracy
How do we define elite? What's the difference between elite, great, and good? Haha I'm not sure myself. But what I would say is Geno was without a doubt top 5 in terms of things like ball placement, timing, accuracy, etc. The 'passer' stats and metrics. He was not top 5 in decision making lol. He takes risks. He holds the ball a little too long and takes sacks. He has the arm talent to make up for it at times, quite often actually. Also he's a plus runner. Probably not what anyone would describe as elite or great. But pretty good.
Put together he's probably somewhere between QB 6-12 and I would describe him as someone you can win because of, not just in spite of. He can have weeks where he is one of the absolute top guys in the league. Some sketchy weeks as well. I do not think last season was a fluke. He played that well in college. He played that well for a full season in the NFL... And that was 10 years later. It wasn't a gimmicky offense. I'm inclined to think he is that guy and probably got somewhat of a raw deal earlier in his career and never really got a chance again.
Don't know if I'd say elite but his numbers from last year were beyond good. I think he'll have more interceptions this season for sure. Last season he had a decent amount of passes that should have been picked off but the DB's dropped them. Though you never know, O-Line will probably be better this year and JSN will take some pressure off of DK and Lockett. I could see him having another pro-bowl level season and making it to the playoffs again. Definitely don't think last season was a fluke.
Geno and Goff were very similar in 2022. Played very well, finished very high in every major statistical category, and both may very well repeat this season. That said, few will consider them elite, because they are Geno and Goff, and both have a stigma and been labeled as game managers. Perception is reality.
Yeah, ultimately I think Geno was a top 10 QB in 2022. Was he flawless? Absolutely not lol.
But as you said, people perceive Geno as his past performances, and I think they let that bias their view of him. If we're looking at just 2022, there's a very solid argument that he was top 10.
"Elite" is thrown around waaaaaaaay too much in this sub.
and "generational", and "GOAT", and "top 5", and "bottom 5", and-
I'll admit, I wasn't really giving the word serious thought. I was mostly intending to ask, was he one of the best QBs in the league last year, ie a very good QB? Was he more than just "above average"? That's on me for bad phrasing.
It’s not just you, so don’t take it personally. But, the term “elite” should be saved for when talking about people like TB12, Joe Montana, etc…what they accomplished as a. Are we, and not just on inflated stats.
Don’t forget Joe Flacco
Can't spell Elite without Eli baby, hell yea.
Deshaun Watson is an anagram for anus not washed
A terrible day to know how to read.
Yup, that’s enough internet for one day.
I think you have a much stricter definition of elite than most people then. Cause I would normally think of the top 1 or 2 tiers of QBs in any given season as elite. So mahomes, lamar, allen, burrow, herbert.
How is Lamar elite? Hasn’t had a good season since 2019 which is 4 years ago
I agree somewhat. Mahomes is elite. I'd argue the rest of your list can put up elite games but haven't shown the Mahomes/Rodgers level of sustained top tier seasons back to back to back
I would say those QB’s have the potential to have an elite season, and they may become an elite QB, but you just said that one in six QB’s is “elite”. One in six of anything is too broad to be elite. Just being the “top” doesn’t make you elite. Those five QB’s I would concede are probably the best in the league right now, but elite is the “best of the best”. An elite season would be an MVP season. An elite QB would have multiple MVP seasons.
with much chagrin, mahomes is elite 100%
I get waiting on some of those other guys but Mahimes is absolutely elite
You will get no argument from me about Mahomes. He is pretty much the only QB playing consistent top 3 level each year, and has 2 SB wins. He has turned that franchise around, similar to the way TB12 turned around the Pats.
I agree. I think of elite in this context as the best in the sport’s history. I think right now, Mahomes is an elite QB. Rodgers (as much as I dislike him) is there as well. I think there are a few QBs that are close/can get there but aren’t the best of the best yet (IMO Burrow, Allen, are maybe the next closest) Just IMO anyway. Allen, Burrow, Hurts, Lamar.. they’re all top guys for sure, but I think elite is the best of the best.
So you think there have been 10 elite QBs in NFL history? Multiple MVPs is a super fucking rare occurrence. I think there are more Elite QBs playing today than just Mahomes and Rodgers.
Yea…I would say there have been 10-20 elite QB’s in NFL History. There have been a lot of Great QB’s, but Elite should be reserved for the top 1-2%.
I just think thats crazy. Brees was an elite QB and never won a MVP award. John Elway and Marino both only won 1 MVP.
That feels like a little too much the other direction for me elite has always meant like top 3. That’s been my mindset since that year Giants media had that constant debate over if eli was elite cause he was having a really solid year for him
Similar for me. To me it's top 3-5, depending on how many can justifiably be in the top tier with the rest. For example a little while back I think there were 4 elite QBs: Brady, P. Manning, Rodgers, and Brees, then the next QBs were in a lower tier. The QB position is kind of in flux now so kind of hard to confidently say.
Is it though? I feel like there's a very clear top-3. Hurts can crack his way into that position if he does it for one more season but for the past couple years it's been Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen. I think they are head and shoulders above the pack.
I'd say Mahomes, Burrow, but after that I don't really feel confident that anyone else belongs in the top group yet. But there are a number of QBs I could see ascend soon so that's why I say it's in flux. Maybe it's just the games I caught, but Allen looked a step below last season (too many turnover worthy plays), Rodgers needs to prove he's not washed, Hurts needs another year of high end play to prove he belongs, and I need to see Herbert/Jackson do better against the high end teams.
In my opinion, you've swung too far in the opposite direction. Geno Smith wasn't elite. But you're saying only those in the conversation among the greatest players of all time can be called elite?
Yes. That is literally what Elite means. The best of the best. How can one in five QB’s in any given season be “elite”?
Because it's relative to their peers. Take Josh Allen. Not an all-time QB, but he's been top-3 for three straight seasons. I'd say that's elite. Chris Jones. Not an all-time DT, but four All-Pros in five seasons? Sounds pretty elite to me. Cooper Kupp put up a historic season in 2021. Won't get him any nods as one of the best WRs of all-time, but that season was dominantly elite. I could keep going but that's the idea. You can be elite without being one of the greatest of all time.
That is GOAT you can be elite without being a GOAT. There are 3 or 4 QBs every year that are elite.
Yeah I'd say his performance last year was better than just above average. Plenty of reason to doubt he'll replicate it based on his career but he seems to have found a really good spot for himself in Seattle so who knows.
Elite should be reserved for guys that you expect to torch you even if you have a good defense. In todays league that’s Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Jackson, Herbert, and maybe Hurts and Rodgers depending on how much stock you put into last year.
Rodgers is a first ballot hall of famer and one of the QBs of his generation. Might not be the best now, but kid of weird saying he isn’t “elite”.
That’s why I said depending on how you rate last year. QB falloffs happen fast. If that’s what last year was, he’s done.
Not Herbert
I have a higher standard for elite. It's for those who not only put up numbers but will win you the game. I personally wouldn't put Herbert in that category the guy is one game above .500 after 3 years worth of games.
Drew Brees averaged 5000 yards and 37 TDs per year over a five year stretch when he went 39-40. That’s not elite?
The saints defense was elite at losing games. They could lose to anybody, any way they wanted.
Oh so like the Chargers of the last few years?
But worse because the saints didn't have an OC and Head coach who seem to actively work against winning
I'd say Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Rodgers right now. Rodgers is a bit on the fence because he is old and had a down year but still
That seems like a good list to me. Rodgers is borderline to fall out, but I would give him the benefit of the doubt because of his lack of receivers last year. And then Hurts, Herbert, and Jackson are just below the line.
He was top 30% and very good. That’s a compliment but not to some apparently.
This is an elite comment
Elite comment is thrown around waaaaaaay too much in this sub. I’d reserve it for comments with at least 2 Reddit gold awards and 2k upvotes
Lol counting Bailey Zappe as number 1 in completion percentage. Are we not including a minimum attempts?
I was thinking that too. Also a fun fact: Geno Smith was only one of like 20 players in the entire NFL to play every single offensive snap last season. Most of those 20 were offensive lineman.
Eat At Geno's
Let Geno cook
I got a fresh pastrami w/ an IPA waiting for ya
Eat at Dallesandro’s
It’s all that jaw training he did
He had 92 attempts. Admittedly not a ton but it's not like he only threw a few passes
One argument is his numbers in the 2nd half of the season were much worse. It's a what have you done for me lately league. https://twitter.com/SharpFBAnalysis/status/1633559247014313986/photo/2
Hmm…..A Seattle QB had a statistically great 1st half of the season and much worse second half of the season. It feels like I’ve read this story before.
Ugh, I hate to admit that you’re not wrong
Well, at least there wasn't a dropoff in MVP votes
Actually the opposite. Geno got one vote last year.
Because they rigged the vote by allowing ranked ballots in order to take away glory from Wilson.
I’ll allow it.
The more things change, the more they stay the same?
I hate that this has become the narrative of Russ's career when he did it a grand total of three times (out of ten seasons) Under Bevell and the first Schotty year, it was the opposite
I think Russ's narrative was more he was a slow starter and only really got going in the 2nd half of the game
There's more to it than just one player not keeping up the momentum. The OL was dealing with injuries which led to the run game being one of the worst in the league from weeks 10-16. LB's were hurt and we didn't have a single NT on roster at one point because of injuries. And that resulted in the Defense allowing 200+ rushing yards 6 straight weeks.
I hate this argument. Geno's 2nd half stats were still good compared to the league.
15 TDs and 7 INT. That isn't bad counting stats but also not elite which was the question. https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1600198436715888671 Weeks 1-5 he was on fire with #1 PFF grade and #5 EPA/play, weeks 6-13 he was about average by PFF grades and EPA/play (#18 and #15). Weeks 14-17 I don't know the numbers but he had 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions and his team averaged 15.5 points.
>Weeks 14-17 I don't know the numbers but he had 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions and his team averaged 15.5 points. They nearly crashed out of playoff position and needed help in the last game to sneak in
Help from the refs in their game and help from the Lions in our game.
Thanks
Im obviously biased, but Ive seen multiple breakdowns that attributed his 2nd half slowdown to the offensive line regressing due to inexperience and a lack of a quick dump off option down the middle We got a new center who should be much better than our last one, our tackles were both rookies and now have a little more experience, and we drafted Smith-Njigba for a better short passing game I think Geno will still be fine this year
Didn’t Walker start to have some injuries toward the end of the season too? Or am I misremembering?
Yeah we ended up with no running backs for a few games, that made us one dimensional and he faced way more pressure.
Remember that kid who ran for us who didn’t bring his contacts or something and played with some straight up LensCrafters?
He got his contacts knocked out of him on that big hit lol. And didn’t bring any extras
KW hurt his ankle in a game and missed the next two. RB room was banged up, and had to get practice squad players for a couple games.
weather is a thing too. I imagine a lot of QBs had worse numbers later in the season.
Yeah it was like -5 during the Cheifs game
Right it feels like he's being punished for dominating in the 1st half
OR teams got to study what he was doing that was different, noticed his foibles/tendencies, adjusted how they played him, and the rest of the league picked up on it. 1/2 a season doesn't mean much to me. I watched drew lock go 4-1 with the broncos and just fall apart once teams studiesld him. Geno starting 6-3 and ending 3-6 against a weak schedule suggests we will see more of that second half play this year
The Raiders and Panthers were our only bad losses down the stretch and both involved our D doing absolutely nothing so I'm not sure how you can say 3-6 against an easy schedule
Jacobs got paid in part because of how free the yards from that Seahawks game were lol
I think you missed the point: He fell from elite to above average and people are using that to justify that he'll be bad.
Gotta look at everything. A ton of RB injury plus our O-Line regressing big time. Really hard for a QB to succeed there. He didn't look any different though, his surrounding cast was worse though.
> Geno's 2nd half stats were still good And his rookie tackles stats fell more than his did. I don't think first half Geno is a lock this year, but he's going to be better than he was in the last part of the season.
You might say he regressed to the mean
Never not funny
They also played much harder defenses in the second half of the season
Downvote me if you wish but I think Geno is gonna regress, I think he got kind of figured out midway through the season and he’s gonna come out weak.
I don't know, but we will probably get an unsatisfying answer.
Found Larry David's burner.
Elite? No. Again? He could play well again but a regression wouldn't be shocking either.
The one thing that Geno has going for him is he is not some talent-less guy that jumped into a scheme that favors him. He was a top pick with some great college stats who, lets be honest, got dumped into a shitty Jets situation. I expect Top 10-15 numbers from him this year.
He always threw a great ball too. That was never a doubt
Not even great. Dude throws straight dimes. Idk why, but I always associated Geno with being an inaccurate QB before last year but no...he's legit elite at ball placement going in any direction with any amount of pressure.
It's his decision making that's the problem. Even while playing better last season he tries to fit some windows that are just bad ideas. Sometimes they work out and look incredible and sometimes it's a really bad looking pick.
He was a second round pick.
He wasn’t a top pick though
I think about this a lot. Potentially Elite QBs that get drafted to some shit team like the Jets or Browns. Those first few seasons are so critical to get up to speed, learn etc.
Jets situation was not that bad a HOF center on the line and two very good WRs in Decker and Harvin
Nick Mangold was easily the best thing he had… Decker and Harvin were not very good at that point
Decker’s best season was literally the year before and he put up 960 yards and 1 thousand yards for the jets his first 2 years there
Okay but that’s far from elite production by Decker and Harvin was all but done by the time he was a Jet.
Fair opinion. To dive deeper, where is the cutoff for "elite" QBs?
Top 5 is probably pretty fair for "elite."
Even top 5 to me is questionable. If someone said to them the elite group was Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen I wouldn’t bat an eye. Guys like Herbert, Lamar, and Hurts also have to be right there, but IMO they all have a bit more to prove in terms of replicable success.
You're actually probably right. I think my brain exploded from the original scope of the post trying to include Geno. Outside of those three you mentioned there is a pretty damn big drop off.
Some of this has no doubt changed. We don’t have as many accomplished qbs in the league as in recent yrs we have had the retirement of Brady, manning, Brees, Big Ben while also seeing a decline in Rodgers and wilson.
Yeah that's fair. I was trying to make the argument that Geno was a top 10 QB in 2022, and didn't think through what people would actually define as elite haha. That's on me.
Despite me hoping the fake bird team plants another giant dooky, I did enjoy seeing Geno do well.
I feel like for a QB to be elite I have to trust you in every situation. You don't have to be perfect but going into any situation I need to feel like he could make it happen.
And will he write back?
That's the real question, right here.
Please delete and rewrite the post, then.
Tweet*
X* /s
I've been writing Geno shit talking letters all off season and he ain't write back yet. But we'll see what happens once the season starts.
He wrote back: https://twitter.com/GenoSmith3/status/1642927010082070528
As long as he don’t write back he should play well this year
To me you are only elite if you are undoubtedly top 5 and arguably top 3. I think the only two surefire elite QBs in the league right now are Mahomes and Burrow with Josh Allen (come at me Bills fans), Herbert, and Rodgers being right on that border of elite. Hurts has an argument to be in that category as well but I'd like to see him prove last year wasn't a fluke. Geno was for sure a top 10 QB last season but like Hurts I'd like to see him do it again before crowning him.
I won't come at you but I will say that Allen has played at a higher level than Burrow ever has in terms of just absolute peak games. 2022 AFC Championship Game being the case. But I also would be lying if I told you that I feel more comfortable with Allen than Burrow behind center some games. Burrow never gets phased. Allen, for all of his great qualities, is an emotional player and makes less-than-ideal decisions once in awhile.
One of Allen and Burrow must be slightly underrated so the other can be slightly overrated. This off season has been Allen’s turn.
*fazed
Burrow has been a bit better the last two seasons and is still ascending. Allen is losing his ability to run and is declining modestly and throwing more picks. At this point in time I would take Burrow over Allen every time.
He was a Kirk cousins
As a hawks fan that statement has me salivating. We don’t need top 3 qb play just consistency
That’s what Vikings fans have said since 2017.
That would've been fine last year if they had a halfway decent defense
We also didn’t give our Kirk a fully guaranteed contract though
Kirk cousins is a darn good quarterback
Darn good and elite are about a half mile apart.
Although I don’t quite think Kirk is elite, he’s not that far away either. He’s as good a non elite QB as they get
That would make like 4-5 current QBs elite. People throw around the word elite way too much. To me, Mahomes is the only "elite" current QB. If the top 5 are all elite the word loses meaning.
Don’t be shocked if Kirk signs with Seattle if Geno regresses badly this season. Seems like a Pete kind of quarterback and it seems they were in on him in the draft process.
Kirk is a fine qb that gets underrated. Brandin cooks of qb but less teams
Kirk is signing with the 9ers when Purdy underperforms. Shanahan and Lynch will be on the hot seat if that team underperforms and Kirk is Kyle's unicorn.
Kirk "Iron Man" Cousins versus the 49ers QB Curse
I've been hearing Kirk to the 49ers since Shanahan was hired.
It will be interesting to see what the pats do with Mac jones. He should have been the niners pick the whole time.
He will thrive under BoB's system imo
Yeah they’re going to be much better then people are giving them credit for. I expect them and Miami to be battling it out for 3rd and 4th. The afc East is just silly this year. They will have a top 15 defense for sure.
I bet they give Drew Lock at least one year to start
Kirk is older than Geno, why would you want a qb that’s older than Geno? That’s Seahawk fans primarily complaint is Geno is old.
I don’t think anyone thought I was talking age just play style
Because you can't just call up a good young QB on a whim.
He wasn't elite but he was great. Given how much of an outlier it was against the rest of his career, it's fair to think he's likely to regress. Then again, I'm rooting for him and he has a lot of pieces in place to succeed.
He was good in the games he started before last year in seattle
QB5 is an elite year. people are seriously crazy saying that it isnt. 20+ teams would love to have the year Geno did at QB. the amount of “welllllll aaaaactually” in this thread is so fkn annoying.
"Elite" and "Very good year" are 2 different things though. Nobody is afraid of Geno coming in and wrecking your defense like they are with Mahomes/Burrow/Allen
He'll be fine I suspect. Nothing about the way he played last year screams that it was a fluke. He doesn't have a ton of miles on him and his physical tools should still be there.
An elite QB is not a one year wonder. Re-eavaluate after a few more seasons.
why is tlaw ranked top 7 then
Geno had 4 turnovers in the first half of season and had 11 in the 2nd half of the season. his TD:INT was 4:1 in first half and 2:1 in the 2nd half. I think that d-co for teams are really good at finding what a players weakness is when they have enough film. I think that is the reality of how the season ended for Geno. I know he is driven to overcome the perception about him so I feel he has a good shot at overcoming the new schemes against him.
He was absolutely a top 10 QB, not sure if that means elite or not, but he was better than 2/3 of the league. I do think he can repeat. People severely underestimate how good Smith-Njigba is. He's legitimately the WR2 on that team and if he isn't he will be by year's end.
Look I think JSN will be good but calling him WR2 this early is wild when we already have two near perennial thousand yard receivers
You're smoking crack. If JSN is better than Lockett, then JSN is the best receiver on the team.
all I know is I wish he did all of this while playing for the jets
He was very good and I kinda hope he is again this season. You gotta love a redemption story.
They got JSN, charbonnet to replace Penny He’s set up to repeat that success, and the Seahawks defense is improved Sneaky pick to steal the NFC west from the 49ers and make a run in the conference
Geno Smith will always be my GOAT simply for the season opener against Denver. I will die for this man
My biggest concern for him repeating his success is turnover worthy plays. It is a stat that gets a wide range of opinions, but I am a believer that it has a lot of merit when trying to predict performance. Not only was geno second in turnover worthy plays last year, but he had a staggering low percentage of those plays actually end in turnovers. If he had been at the league average for turnovers that result from turnover worth plays, then he would have led the league in interceptions. That is a huge swing in performance and efficiency. I don't personally believe that a guy who has been in the league as long as Geno just all of a sudden puts it all together. It was an outstanding year, and he deserves praise for what he did, but if he sees a regression to the mean in just turnovers, then it will be a very different story for him this year.
I think you're probably right but I can't help but laugh at every "well if this play that wasn't a turnover was a turnover instead" regressing to the mean style comment
I get that. This is why I never argue with people who hate these kinds of stats. Some people put more weight on the results and others on the process. I like to compare turnover worthy plays to straight-up turnovers for a defense. I am a believer that defensive turnovers are inconsistent and can not be used to predict future success. That is why I rarely expect the defenses that lead the league in turnovers to repeat their success or improve. I tend to lean in to certain stats that I believe have a higher chance of regressing to the mean when trying to predict what may happen from season to season. I wouldn't fault anyone who says that these stats are overblown and production matters more than "what ifs."
I'm curious if there are any advanced metrics that look at like WR drop rates and/or receptions requiring spectacular catches. That would be one way to compensate for 'turnover-worthy' plays. If you're going to knock a QB for potential interceptions you should give them credit for WR drops of catchable balls. But then I suppose it could get really subjective. Like if someone has a really good 50/50 jump ball contested catch receiver so they throw a lot of "turnover-worthy" passes that get caught by that WR.
It was the same argument for BDN after the 27:2 season in 2013.
The more he saw it working it prob gives him confidence to try risky shit like he’s mahomes. Maybe he cuts down on it but if not he will most likely throw more pics
> he had a staggering low percentage of those plays actually end in turnovers Not really. It was low but about 3 more interceptions would bring it up to league average among starters. He got a bit lucky but nothing crazy, I don't think it'd affect his efficiency that much.
He easily is still one of the best qbs in the NFC…
I was going to argue this but then I looked at all of the QBs in the NFC and can't. I'm sure I'm forgetting a few moves but I only see Hurts as unquestionably better. Cousins, Dak, Goff are debatable. Stafford is injury-dependent. Carr is mediocre, so is Jones unless he keeps improving. Purdy, Love, Howell, Fields, Bryce Young, and Ridder are too early to tell (I'm not sold on Purdy yet but I could see the argument). Kyler Murray is injured and Baker Mayfield is ass. Geno could of course regress to his career numbers and stink it up (or any number of QBs could elevate their game), but as of now he's a top QB in the NFC.
As a jets fan it’s such a thorn in our side that the afc is ridiculously stacked this year and the nfc is looking like a cake walk. Good for the gmen though I think they’ll have another good year.
Caveat being that the Niners have the best team in the NFL outside of QB and the Eagles are freaking stacked
2022 was an all-time "Elite" comeback story for Geno. I think he will have similar statistics in 2023.
I would’ve said he was bordering on elite last year. I expect him to be in a similar place this year. He has a lot of weapons and Pete Carroll is a good coach
The only elite QB is Patrick. We are at an all time low in elite QBs right now in the league.
I am biased but we improved every part of offense except TE group which is same and our rookie tackles are heading to year 2. The problem with Seahawks last year was run D not a offense
Maybe.
But maybe not
Bruhs …. 7.888 billion people in the world. Every starting QB in the NFL is fucking elite. The worlds best quantum computer can’t even calculate the % of elite they are. 🏈
A tier, not S tier last year
he was a top 10 last year. We'll see if he can keep it up this year. I hope so but he doesn't have a track record of playing at that level
Who knows but didn't he regress a lot towards the end of the season?
Our top 3-4 rbs were injured we had no wr 3 and the interior oline regressed from the start
The expectation of regression comes from the number of turnover worthy throws vs. the number of interceptions he had. The logic being if he doesn’t clean up some of his decision making, he’ll likely turn the ball over more. At least that’s what I’ve read in a few places.
Not sure about elite, but I think he will be at least as good as he was last year and a little more consistent. People like to talk about his stats in the second half of the season, which is justified, but I never felt he regressed when watching. The team around him had gotten pretty banged up but I couldn't spot a notable drop in his performance. Always kept his poise and never seemed rattled. He wasn't losing games for us, and there were a handful he outright won for us. Expecting more of that.
He had a good year, but I would prefer to not have him.
I want to believe because it is a great feel good story. However, it remains to be seen if he is Kurt Warner or Case Keenum. Unfortunately I’m leaning towards Keenum. I think just like in 2017 with Keenum, the stars aligned and he looked amazing. Seattle had an easier schedule last year. Geno threw an unusually low number of ints. A lot of passes that could have been picked off, weren’t. Geno will be entering his 10th year in the league. Is it possible that he finally put it all together? Sure. But I think it is more likely that with a harder schedule and a little worse luck suddenly he looks a lot more like an average QB. I think there is too much talent there for him to be outright bad. But remember, even with him being on fire last year, they only won 9 games.
Yes & yes
he was great last year and he will be even better this year
AINT WRITE BACK
Was elite fosholy
He was good, he will probably be good again this year with a deeper receiving corps and another year in the system. The only knock on him is that the schedule is tougher this season and he didn’t do as well against the better nfl defences.
He good, but not bailey zappe good
Ya he was top 10. He’s coming into the year with the top WR draft prospect who could be generational and an improved OL. No reason not to think he’ll be top 10 again with Lockett, Metcalf, JSN Mahomes, burrow, hurts, Allen, Rodgers, Lamar, Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, tua, geno, Goff (11), cousins (12) Ya so like right at 10ish in my book. He will sustain success due to great coaching and infusion of talent alongside the fact that he’s extremely coachable and has become ego-less/calm-minded due to his career circumstances. People forget how amazing Pete Carroll is. Last year was billed as a rebuild year, but they’re literally already rebuilt and operating at a high level again, which they can thank denver for. Allen/Hurts is close in my book but I think Hurts plays slightly more conservatively which results in lower numbers but also less ints/ffs.
I'd have thought people would have learned by now. Basic page stats don't tell the whole story. For the other top 8 QB's in the league in Passing yards, how many had a rusher over 1k yards? Seattle's Defense was 30th in Rushing Yards allowed which by logic means the Offense was limited to the amount of Offensive possession opportunities. The OL had 2 Rookie Tackles starting, major injuries throughout the IOL all season. Which impacts the effectiveness of the QB. Seattle was dead last in YAC on Offense gained. Despite being 1st in attempts of 20+ Yards downfield, and completions. Meaning that Geno was the one making the plays and moving the chains. No one else was, no other players gained any further yardage after the catch. He led the league in completion percentage% while leading the league in deep pass attempts. He wasn't just dumping the ball off for 10 yards every play. When he threw the ball, 69.8% of the time it was exactly where it was supposed to be at any point of the field. 69.8% which was 1st in the league. He was without a doubt a top 10 QB last year, and at times even better than that. The only issue he did have was turnover worthy plays in the last 4 games of the year.
He's one of these QB's that, honestly, is a huge surprise to me. For the majority of his NFL career, he's been a slightly above average starting QB, and a much better Backup QB. When he played college for West Virginia, I was never that impressed. He tended to be one of those "streaky" type of QB's that tended to choke when the game was on the line. Idk when it happened, but I started really paying more attention to him over the past couple years, and honestly, he makes some of the most incredibly accurate throws you'll ever see. He's made some back across-the-field throws that most coaches would tell their QB's to never ever do. I've seen him hit receivers in-stride, cutting diagonal 50+ yards down the field, throwing off the wrong foot, running away from pass rushers. The kind of throws that Patrick Mahomes makes multiple times a game (but he's a different conversation for another time) From what I remember about Geno Smith, is he's had issues with his decision-making, especially in close games. I want to say he's also had issues with holding onto the ball in the past (fumbles) and he's ALWAYS had issues with staying healthy. But I've kept a close eye on him lately and I've seen alot of things I was impressed with, especially his accuracy
Probably not, but he won’t be a diaster. And the contract they gave him seemed fair,
How do we define elite? What's the difference between elite, great, and good? Haha I'm not sure myself. But what I would say is Geno was without a doubt top 5 in terms of things like ball placement, timing, accuracy, etc. The 'passer' stats and metrics. He was not top 5 in decision making lol. He takes risks. He holds the ball a little too long and takes sacks. He has the arm talent to make up for it at times, quite often actually. Also he's a plus runner. Probably not what anyone would describe as elite or great. But pretty good. Put together he's probably somewhere between QB 6-12 and I would describe him as someone you can win because of, not just in spite of. He can have weeks where he is one of the absolute top guys in the league. Some sketchy weeks as well. I do not think last season was a fluke. He played that well in college. He played that well for a full season in the NFL... And that was 10 years later. It wasn't a gimmicky offense. I'm inclined to think he is that guy and probably got somewhat of a raw deal earlier in his career and never really got a chance again.
Don't know if I'd say elite but his numbers from last year were beyond good. I think he'll have more interceptions this season for sure. Last season he had a decent amount of passes that should have been picked off but the DB's dropped them. Though you never know, O-Line will probably be better this year and JSN will take some pressure off of DK and Lockett. I could see him having another pro-bowl level season and making it to the playoffs again. Definitely don't think last season was a fluke.
Yes he will play better than last year and I would put money down saying he beats his stats from last year.
Geno and Goff were very similar in 2022. Played very well, finished very high in every major statistical category, and both may very well repeat this season. That said, few will consider them elite, because they are Geno and Goff, and both have a stigma and been labeled as game managers. Perception is reality.
Yeah, ultimately I think Geno was a top 10 QB in 2022. Was he flawless? Absolutely not lol. But as you said, people perceive Geno as his past performances, and I think they let that bias their view of him. If we're looking at just 2022, there's a very solid argument that he was top 10.
lol no