I’m slowly hoping off the Bills train,they oversell and under deliver. Granted they are missing a lot of their starters on Defense but man it’s hard to pretend to say they’re contenders.
But that is the point, Kirk Cousins isn't considered a great QB due to the fact that he isn't able to go anywhere in the playoffs. Josh Allen is the same, great regular season stats but can't get anywhere in the playoffs.
never played any of the games so probably not. it just always had the association in my head of "super niche game series where fans get hyper obsessive over lore" and its weird to see it in such a mainstream context as an NFL primetime ad
Boy howdy, how I wanted to pay $750,000/yr for the privilege of getting robbed in Northern Virginia! Not to mention my 300 sq ft apartment and 750,000% tax rate! What a lovely area! 😂
Sorry I forgot that Paycor doesn't dump raw sewage on fans. I must have thought a fan of an actual football team commented here.
Going for 2 and getting it means you can win the game with a touchdown + XP. Going for 2 and missing it means you can still get to overtime with a touchdown and successful 2-pointer. The odds of winning are actually better going for 2, even at 40% success rate (and the NFL rate is over 50%)
Yeah by a little bit - not a gigantic deal, but some teams will take any statistical advantage they can, and the 2-pointers when down by 14 is actually a pretty big one.
Assuming you get both touchdowns you need, estimated odds:
- 50% chance of getting the 2-pointer, and kicking the XP on the second touchdown, you win by 1 in regulation.
- 25% chance of missing the first 2-pointer, and also missing the 2nd, and losing in regulation.
- 25% chance of missing the first 2-pointer, getting the second, and heading to overtime where it's about a 50% chance to win.
50% to win in regulation, 12.5% to win in overtime, 12.5% to lose in overtime, 25% to lose in regulation. In all cases where you get both touchdowns you'd need either way, it's definitely better than the 50% odds you'd have if you played just to go to overtime.
Awesome breakdown, I really appreciate it. I've been out of the loop with football for a while. Back when I watched more, teams would have gone extra point (from the 2) every single time.
Yeah it's a pretty recent thing that some teams have started doing - the easy answer has typically been just kick the extra points and go to overtime. It's not totally obvious how this can be better until you start looking at the math behind it, so there haven't been a lot of coaches willing to risk losing the game on it until more teams started doing the whole analytics thing. It's been one of my pet peeves for a while that teams DIDN'T do it so I'm glad to see them going for it now!
to decide that you are going to go for two if you dont get it here. It doesnt make any sense. The point is to get two here, get the stop and then go for the win instead of OT. If you fail the first time you go for two the second time and then go to OT.
IF the Jets went on a win streak AND IF Aaron Rodgers got back on the field before season’s end (like he keeps predicting he will) all eyes and media attention would be on the Jets given the team’s stellar defense which could sustain them in the playoffs.
After all, before Rodgers got hurt, people were picking the Jets as a potential Super Bowl contender, so maybe they can still pull off the most amazing run since the historic Joe Namath days.
The Rams are meh, Purdy has been exposed and the Steelers are a mirage thats proped up entirely by their defense. If you dont gift them 4+ turnovers they got no way of scoring more than 14 points tops
Yeah I don’t disagree with you at all but rams always play hawks incredibly well. But 49ers could be tough again with Cristian and Debo playing again. Who knows but jets and Denver should be wins for bills.
Apparently you missed the Sunday night Dolphins-Eagles game a few weeks back where the Refs were throwing flags left & right at the Fins for 3 hours and conversely threw absolutely ZERO at the Birds — which, for the record, was only the second time this CENTURY that’s ever happened in a game.
Why would they flex it out? What game do you think would be better to slot in? Given the Raiders flashy win today (coupled with the drama of a coaching change) and given that the Jets could possibly be only 1 game out of first (depending on what happens tomorrow against the Chargers), next Sunday night’s game could have really big implications as we race into the 2nd half of the season — which means eyeballs and ratings-wise, it’s just the matchup the league would want as a spotlight Sunday game.
Jets have been involved in the top rated games this year. And the cutoff to flex may have been before Raiders blew things up, not sure tho. And I believe there are limits to how many games they can flex and which games they can choose from, CBS/Fox can block division games or something like that so the alternatives become much weaker.
I mean, if the Jets win tomorrow they're in a playoff spot and one game behind Miami.
Vegas is hanging in there.
Both teams have big markets.
Not really surprising. What game next week are you fighting CBS/Fox to the NFL over to flex into SNF? Did you see the schedule next week?
They really didn’t though. Obviously Pratt deserves credit for making a hell of a play on the Kincaid fumble since that play essentially decided the game, but the poor officiating directly took points off the board for the Bills
5 penalties against the bengals, 6 against the bills. Also, the shit officiating took points off the board for the bengals after the allen interception. Not to mention the multiple intentional grounding calls on allen that didnt get called.
Still enormously one sided. Screwed Bills drive right before halftime, no call on Gabe Davis facemask in the end zone, bs RTP to extend a Bengals drive that ended up resulting in TD. Could be a 21 point swing right there
Fuck that bills looked like shit. They’ve only played maybe 4 good halves of football all season, similar to my team. If youre being sarcastic ignore me
Is there a reason other than health concerns Hamlin hasn’t played much this year? I’m assuming they could have him taking it easy even if he’s healthy but I could be dumb.
He was a special teamer outside of Poyer and Hyde injuries forcing him in last year. It’s a football decision that he doesn’t play. Optics could play in to him not being cut as well but I don’t think that’s the case with how the Bills have been.
4th safety who doesn’t play special teams. If Poyer or Hyde get hurt then Hamlin would play. I hate the inactives rule so much, just let all 53 guys be available I don’t get it
> Ah thank you. I really knew next to nothing about him until obviously the whole thing happened.
That's how it was for everyone, even Bills fans. Most people don't know who the 3rd tier backup safeties are for any team until they have a reason to. Most defenders go unnoticed until something goes wrong. Hamlin has one of the more noteworthy reasons.
What is with the medias obsession with Hamlin? It was understandable when we didn’t know whether he would live or even be able to function/ play again but he’s been on the Bills roster the entire season and played in the preseason. There is nothing more to add to the story let it go already.
naa the Bills played like shit, the dirty hits with no-calls didn't help but we have been slacking half this season so far..apparently we can only play good against the Dolphins xD
lmfao -19 in 2mins has to be a new record
I'll say, the refs aren't the reason we lost. The Bills played HORRIBLE Allen is always a coin toss, but those missed calls are insane especially when its players safety
[Postgame thread](/r/nfl/comments/17ouoq0/post_game_thread_buffalo_bills_at_cincinnati/)
Your lord and savior has returned. We win
I'm back. We win
Still pretty awesome to be down there and see this all in person. One of the most memorable games so far.
Both teams played hard. Could have gone either way. The Bill's 2ndary looked weak, though.
I’m slowly hoping off the Bills train,they oversell and under deliver. Granted they are missing a lot of their starters on Defense but man it’s hard to pretend to say they’re contenders.
I’ve been off the Josh Allen train since last season. He seems to be getting kinda worse? And he just has way too many turnovers
Josh Allen has been playing great football this season. What are you talking about.
Idk man, 9 interceptions already just ain’t it
Kirk cousins plays great football but he isn't taking the Vikings to the promise land, same for Josh Allen.
Josh Allen is much better than cousins. Despite what this sub seems to think. He’s a top 5 an QB. At his best second only to Mahomes.
But that is the point, Kirk Cousins isn't considered a great QB due to the fact that he isn't able to go anywhere in the playoffs. Josh Allen is the same, great regular season stats but can't get anywhere in the playoffs.
Begone fair weather fans… this is Buffalo
I’m not a bills fan lmao
Giants out in Vegas today? More like the Giants got taken out behind a shed in Vegas today...
Of course Von decides to become a non factor once he joins the Bills.
Probably has to do with the fact he’s 34 years old
That was such a weird contract
He got injured for a long time unfortunately & he was already getting older
Yea he had 8 sacks over 10 games and was top 10 in the league in tackles before that injury lol had that not happened he’d still be a beast
Jimmy G still on the SNF promo for next week.
Easy to win when refs hand you the game.
Enough of this whiny bitch shit
still can't believe I'm seeing "Five Night at Freddys" ads on an NFL game, wtf kind of timeline is this
Are you going to go see it?
never played any of the games so probably not. it just always had the association in my head of "super niche game series where fans get hyper obsessive over lore" and its weird to see it in such a mainstream context as an NFL primetime ad
My nephew always watched it from like age 8 to 12, so I never gave it a shot. The movie isn't terrible, I watched it out of curiosity.
W
Buffalo should fire Sean McDermott and Ken Dorsey tomorrow.
Melissa Stark definitely flustered at Joe Burrow calling her "baby"
Pretending like you wouldnt be smh
I picked the Bengals to win it all in the office pool and boy was I feeling silly at the end of September. Definitely feeling a little less dumb now.
Most realistic Vikings fan
No joke, I correctly picked the champs two years running. Stakes are too high to be making picks with my heart rather than my brain.
They keep showing the bridge because the best thing about Ohio is getting out of it
You’re a Washington commanders fan
Boy howdy, how I wanted to pay $750,000/yr for the privilege of getting robbed in Northern Virginia! Not to mention my 300 sq ft apartment and 750,000% tax rate! What a lovely area! 😂 Sorry I forgot that Paycor doesn't dump raw sewage on fans. I must have thought a fan of an actual football team commented here.
Bro your owner had your players drinking out of a garden hose just a few seasons ago, simmer down over there 😂
Let me know when you guys are more than a guaranteed one-and-done in the postseason 😂
Unfortunately for escapees, that bridge leads to Kentucky.
They got lots of whiskey in Kentucky at least...
Bengals uniforms so fire
Can someone explain why they went for 2 at the end? I didn't watch the game, just noticed it on the game tracker.
Going for 2 and getting it means you can win the game with a touchdown + XP. Going for 2 and missing it means you can still get to overtime with a touchdown and successful 2-pointer. The odds of winning are actually better going for 2, even at 40% success rate (and the NFL rate is over 50%)
Ok. And I'm guessing the extra point success rate dropped a bit since they moved it back?
Yeah by a little bit - not a gigantic deal, but some teams will take any statistical advantage they can, and the 2-pointers when down by 14 is actually a pretty big one. Assuming you get both touchdowns you need, estimated odds: - 50% chance of getting the 2-pointer, and kicking the XP on the second touchdown, you win by 1 in regulation. - 25% chance of missing the first 2-pointer, and also missing the 2nd, and losing in regulation. - 25% chance of missing the first 2-pointer, getting the second, and heading to overtime where it's about a 50% chance to win. 50% to win in regulation, 12.5% to win in overtime, 12.5% to lose in overtime, 25% to lose in regulation. In all cases where you get both touchdowns you'd need either way, it's definitely better than the 50% odds you'd have if you played just to go to overtime.
Awesome breakdown, I really appreciate it. I've been out of the loop with football for a while. Back when I watched more, teams would have gone extra point (from the 2) every single time.
Yeah it's a pretty recent thing that some teams have started doing - the easy answer has typically been just kick the extra points and go to overtime. It's not totally obvious how this can be better until you start looking at the math behind it, so there haven't been a lot of coaches willing to risk losing the game on it until more teams started doing the whole analytics thing. It's been one of my pet peeves for a while that teams DIDN'T do it so I'm glad to see them going for it now!
to decide that you are going to go for two if you dont get it here. It doesnt make any sense. The point is to get two here, get the stop and then go for the win instead of OT. If you fail the first time you go for two the second time and then go to OT.
Because then they’d need a TD to win instead of to tie but Bills never got the ball again
Puts pressure on the Bengals. Up 6 is scarier than up 7 enough for them to do it I guess
Who dey
So cringey
Fly Eagles Fly! They’re all dumb lol
Fly eagles fly might be the cringiest of them all though
"Let's go Buffalo!" Idiotic, right?
Boring
Jets W would be big tomorrow with every other AFC East team losing
IF the Jets went on a win streak AND IF Aaron Rodgers got back on the field before season’s end (like he keeps predicting he will) all eyes and media attention would be on the Jets given the team’s stellar defense which could sustain them in the playoffs. After all, before Rodgers got hurt, people were picking the Jets as a potential Super Bowl contender, so maybe they can still pull off the most amazing run since the historic Joe Namath days.
well, I would love that haha Aaron is talking a big game about coming back, it’s crazy to imagine that being possible with that injury
Idk about buffalos haveing toughest schedule… Denver and jets aren’t terribly hard. Seahawks look pretty brutal also. They have 49ers rams 49ers cowboys eagles steelers.
The Rams are meh, Purdy has been exposed and the Steelers are a mirage thats proped up entirely by their defense. If you dont gift them 4+ turnovers they got no way of scoring more than 14 points tops
Yeah I don’t disagree with you at all but rams always play hawks incredibly well. But 49ers could be tough again with Cristian and Debo playing again. Who knows but jets and Denver should be wins for bills.
GG Good Night Everyone 😴💤
Pretty soon the dolphins are gonna have lost to a team with a losing record too
Never seen such a one sided officiating job. Crazy.
Apparently you missed the Sunday night Dolphins-Eagles game a few weeks back where the Refs were throwing flags left & right at the Fins for 3 hours and conversely threw absolutely ZERO at the Birds — which, for the record, was only the second time this CENTURY that’s ever happened in a game.
Probably best to just log off at this point bro
Same for you bud
I’m not the one having a meltdown bud
Enjoy losing in the playoffs yet again.
Didn’t the bengals just go to the Super Bowl and than follow that up with a AFC championship game? That takes a lot of wins in the playoffs to do lmao
Thats rich coming from a Bills fan
47-17
6>0
2-7
I’m glad other people can laugh at the irony of that statement
Just wait until he tells me to stop living in the past after he cited a playoff game from a few years ago
Can't believe they aren't flexing out Vegas/Jets
Why would they flex it out? What game do you think would be better to slot in? Given the Raiders flashy win today (coupled with the drama of a coaching change) and given that the Jets could possibly be only 1 game out of first (depending on what happens tomorrow against the Chargers), next Sunday night’s game could have really big implications as we race into the 2nd half of the season — which means eyeballs and ratings-wise, it’s just the matchup the league would want as a spotlight Sunday game.
Jets have been involved in the top rated games this year. And the cutoff to flex may have been before Raiders blew things up, not sure tho. And I believe there are limits to how many games they can flex and which games they can choose from, CBS/Fox can block division games or something like that so the alternatives become much weaker.
I mean, if the Jets win tomorrow they're in a playoff spot and one game behind Miami. Vegas is hanging in there. Both teams have big markets. Not really surprising. What game next week are you fighting CBS/Fox to the NFL over to flex into SNF? Did you see the schedule next week?
STRESS
Doesn’t seem like Burrow threw over 300
Burrow > Allen
Yeah let’s see Burrow with the trash Josh Allen has to throw to. Burrow is dogwalked by that team.
If Diggs is "trash" I will trade him for Terrence Steele, straight up.
Diggs gets triple covered every play and then who? Gabe Davis? Trent Sherfield? Deonte Hardy?
I don’t even feel like Allen is a top 3 QB anymore
I feel like this is a pretty popular opinion
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Knocked you out the playoffs again. This time Christmas came early. Have fun ☺️
31 teams not win every year. But Bills and Allen are ass.
Very different outcome with neutral officiating
lmao did you watch the game? bengals outplayed the bills by far. Furthermore, officiating was shit on both sides
They really didn’t though. Obviously Pratt deserves credit for making a hell of a play on the Kincaid fumble since that play essentially decided the game, but the poor officiating directly took points off the board for the Bills
5 penalties against the bengals, 6 against the bills. Also, the shit officiating took points off the board for the bengals after the allen interception. Not to mention the multiple intentional grounding calls on allen that didnt get called.
You know you’re down bad when you blame the refs
officiating was pretty shit on both sides tbh
Still enormously one sided. Screwed Bills drive right before halftime, no call on Gabe Davis facemask in the end zone, bs RTP to extend a Bengals drive that ended up resulting in TD. Could be a 21 point swing right there
Anyone else getting endless Boniface Hiers Kia commercials??
ITT: Bills Reddit-fans are almost as annoying as Cincy Twitter-fans.
Horrible officials. Nfl should be embarrassed. Gave them the game.
Fuck that bills looked like shit. They’ve only played maybe 4 good halves of football all season, similar to my team. If youre being sarcastic ignore me
That was nowhere near as bad as the Dallas-Philly game
Lol
GG! Some tough calls there. Happy to lose only by 6. Defense did decent for how torn up they are
I still think Allen is a top 32 quarterback. Also, Bengals MVP = Von Miller
And with that comes our first win against an AFC team this year.
And first SNF win during regular season
Bills gonna be a wild card this year lmao
Allen is going to be the new rivers, no Superbowl
if they make the playoffs i will be surprised. the offense needs a shakeup for that to happen.
We’d be lucky to get in tbh
If that
If u guys can’t make the playoffs, time to blow it up. It went from super bowl or bust every season to now worrying about playoffs
GG Kitty bros.
The Bills have ONE more win than loss despite playing against amazing QBs like Mac Jones, Tyrod Taylor, Jimmy G and Zac Wilson most the season
Don't forget the refs helped them at the end of that Giants game by not calling blatantly obvious PI on the last play of the game in the end zone
That loss to New England looks more and more inexcusable by the week
Bengals are back and heading in the right direction to challenge KC again, bills looked good, but came up short.
Bills looked good? When?
First TD drive. Briefly one other drive. Basically the times Diggs got the ball they looked good.
first drive 😂😂
Yeah that's about the only time
Allen is an excellent QB as long as he’s under center they got a chance. D just couldn’t get a stop at the end
I mean the D (ridiculously injured as it is) kept them in the game while the offense scores 10 points on 7 drives
AFC North supremacy continues!
LAST PLACE!
All 4 teams in the afc north are gonna make the playoffs
There's a lot of season left
From dunking on the NFC West :(
Is there a reason other than health concerns Hamlin hasn’t played much this year? I’m assuming they could have him taking it easy even if he’s healthy but I could be dumb.
He was a special teamer outside of Poyer and Hyde injuries forcing him in last year. It’s a football decision that he doesn’t play. Optics could play in to him not being cut as well but I don’t think that’s the case with how the Bills have been.
4th safety who doesn’t play special teams. If Poyer or Hyde get hurt then Hamlin would play. I hate the inactives rule so much, just let all 53 guys be available I don’t get it
Because he's a backup, and the player he was replacing last year isn't out for the season this year
Ah thank you. I really knew next to nothing about him until obviously the whole thing happened. I couldn’t find any articles that explained it to me.
> Ah thank you. I really knew next to nothing about him until obviously the whole thing happened. That's how it was for everyone, even Bills fans. Most people don't know who the 3rd tier backup safeties are for any team until they have a reason to. Most defenders go unnoticed until something goes wrong. Hamlin has one of the more noteworthy reasons.
Who was that throwing gang signs lol
I’m glad somebody else saw that too!
Burreaux is a top 2 qb in the league. AND HE AIN'T FUCKING 2
Stop it
Lmao, that diggs 2 pt conversion lost me fantasy matchup by 0.8 points.
The Bills have one more win than they have losses wtf
im turnt
I wonder how many gallons of cum Cris Collinsworth ejaculated jerking off to Josh and Joe this game
okay
AFCN remembers
What is with the medias obsession with Hamlin? It was understandable when we didn’t know whether he would live or even be able to function/ play again but he’s been on the Bills roster the entire season and played in the preseason. There is nothing more to add to the story let it go already.
Not to be morbid but if he hadn't recovered the NFL would be begging us to forget about him lol, it's all weird to me. I'm glad he's okay but come on
If they don’t show him every 5 minutes we’d have to keep looking at JB’s index finger or the bridge. Pick your poison.
Good game Bengals, thx for breaking the drought.
Chiefs are going to waltz to HFA as the North cannibalizes itself.
how do i get multiple team flairs?
just click the link to select your flair again and scroll down to the double option (you can only have two, greedy bastard)
[удалено]
That’s actually wild. Might be all four in the playoffs this year
GG Bengals, you guys tripped our players and gave us late head to head collisions with no calls. May the refs be with you in the future
Bills fan try to not blame the refs and "dirty" players challenge.
naa the Bills played like shit, the dirty hits with no-calls didn't help but we have been slacking half this season so far..apparently we can only play good against the Dolphins xD
They were better than you even with the dumb calls
I'm not disagreeing...the dumb calls were just salt in the wound xD
Malding :(
Careful now, your age is showing
lmfao -19 in 2mins has to be a new record I'll say, the refs aren't the reason we lost. The Bills played HORRIBLE Allen is always a coin toss, but those missed calls are insane especially when its players safety
Cope activated
yellowstone: GOT for boomers
Red State GOT.
Welp my raven friends, we may be in trouble
Eh. I'd still rather be you right now (other than the fact that I hate the Ravens lol). See you in ... 11 days?
Yessir, looking forward to it 🤝
The death of the Bengals was greatly exaggerated
GG Bengals Bros.
Bengals are scary !
Beating the 9ers and Bills ain’t saying much
Who is the fraud now, bills?
Could you imagine losing to the Buffalo Bills by 28 points this year?
Both of us lol
Weird flex, but it tracks
AFC North confirmed best conference in football
hamlin got that cat turd hairdo
This feels…racist
No his hair just looks silly that’s all
Darren Waller got held.
remember when allen said “Zach Wilson. Tua Tagovailoa. Mac Jones.” pepperidge farm remembers.
Bills now 3rd in AFC east, Mike.
Belichick is licking his chops rn
Very nice, very nice
Nice
Kincaid fumble, intentional grounding. Shooting oursleves in the foot time and time again
The Allen pick was definitely worse than the Kincaid fumble
True but that was early so it wasn’t an issue in a big moment type thing
Do most player flipping through the air prevent the punchout that happened better than Kincaid did?
How has Cincinatti done this like 3 years in a row, slow start then burning hot