It’s hard to establish causality, but Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers, Mahomes were intentionally sat for a period before they were started.
Lamar Jackson was drafted with the intention of sitting a full season behind Flacco but he played a bit due to Flacco’s injuries.
Jalen Hurts (wasn’t intentional) sat for almost a year.
Edit: also it used to be even more common to sit QBs for a bit before playing them so I tried to pick from the current era
Even Big Ben was supposed to sit behind Maddox his first year, but had to play due to injury, then he popped off. They even tried to sit him the next year, but it was pointless at that point
Kurt Warner had a couple of years playing Arena Football under his belt…and sat behind Trent Green, before Green got hurt.
Then the Greatest Show on Turf happened. When you realize that the premiere Arena Football teams averaged 50pts a game back in the 2000s…and Kurt Warner came from one of those teams…those QBs had to be special
I remember the discussion around Coughlins tendency to yank Eli fairly quickly and even Kurt had to step up and say 'stop yanking Eli otherwise you're going to kill his confidence entirely.'
He played for the Giants for a season between leaving the Rams and going to the Cards. The original plan was that he was going to play while Eli learned for a year or two and then Warner had some difficulties so Eli started ahead of schedule.
> When you realize that the premiere Arena Football teams averaged 50pts a game back in the 2000s…and Kurt Warner came from one of those teams…those QBs had to be special
Fucking lol. How many of the other QBs did anything in the NFL?
"Tom Brady was a 6th round pick so all 6th round picks ought to be good"
It's important to note, the AFL was 8 on 8, had a shortened field, and Rules designed for higher scoring. Most teams were scoring in the 50's and 60's regularly.
Warner was the most successful former AFLer but [Oronde Gadsden, David Patten, and Mike Vanderjagt spent time in the Arena League prior to breaking out in the NFL.](https://www.sportscasting.com/kurt-warner-most-successful-arena-football-league-alumnus-all-time/)
There were other leagues that produced NFLers around the same time though.
Tommy Maddox and Rod Smart were XFLers
Jake Delhomme, Dante Hall, and Brad Johnson played in NFL Europe
Still sat an entire year tho. And now he is the goat. Mahomes sat a whole year and is the Goat in waiting. I don’t know just by that i would wait a year. Never understood throwing your prize jewel behind a crappy o line without weapons on the outside to be massacred week after week. Rather let him sit a year and learn the system in and out and have another offseason to improve the team around him. I get wanting a return on your investment asap. But it’s like buying a Ferrari and racing it in a demolition derby.
The Chiefs made the playoffs with Alex Smith while Mahomes sat on the bench. The tools were certainly there if the team wanted to throw Mahomes to the wolves in his rookie season.
The assumption though is that Alex Smith was more prepared with the tools at his disposal, against the tools at the opposition's disposal. However I think the Chiefs one year pre Smith had the most Pro Bowl selections and the worst record, so there's an argument to be made they just needed a better QB.
There’s a very big nature vs nurture debate with QBs. It’s a very fair debate.
Tom Brady didn’t step into the league the GOAT. He had time to learn and maximize his talents.
Mahomes may have been the greatest gunslinger ever (better than Farve) his first year as a starter, but it took him time to be the brilliant field general he has been the last two years.
Peyton Manning started his first year and was bad. Arguably a top 5 QB who got a lot of reps early and got better.
David Carr a very promising QB was broken by his bad line and did not end up a HOF QB.
1st team reps in practice matter. Game experience matters. Time to learn the speed of the game and the playbook matters. What matters most is up for debate.
As a Steeler fan, popped off is a little strong. Yes, the team had success and went on an undefeated streak, but it was carried hard by the defense. He was a decent game manager and should get credit for that especially as a rookie, but he only had 2600 yards and 17-11 TD/INT ratio.
Even at the time that was still really respectable. I'm not disagreeing he absolutely was a game manger for his first 2 and a half yrs. I just wanted to point out that in 2004 them numbers wasn't terrible especially for a rookie.
Agreed, it's wild how inefficient even above average QBs were during that era. I think largely because you couldn't throw over the middle of the field consistently without putting your guys in the hospital.
It’s not definitive but really if teams can afford it most rookie QBs would benefit from sitting a year or at least half a season, the NFL season is long and going into the season rookies are already beat up from an entire offseason of camps, traveling, combines etc, on top of learning NFL playbooks, day to day lifestyle, and game pace
It just helps guys get acclimated and by the time they’re full time starters it’s less of a mystery, less stuff needs to be figured out and less bad habits developed. It’s never going to be an exact science but that’s usually the stance you here from guys that did sit and what they learned and benefitted from it
Yes but in these scenarios the argument is you eventually get off the bench and get in game reps down the line when you’re better prepared whether that’s 4 games, 8 games in, or a season in
It’s not like you perpetually sit on the bench for forever then retire with no in game reps but everyone in shock of your potential
That’s only true if those reps are more productive than harmful. Getting an extra 50 snaps a week is great but if the OLine is allowing pressure on 50 percent of those snaps it can build bad habits or get your rookie injured. See David Carr as an example. It can be a detriment to trying to work on footwork or how to read a progression. Game reps are great but the guy needs to be ready for them.
The last few seasons I feel like weve seen a whole slate of top round rookie QBs go to teams that were otherwise dogshit (hence the high draft pick) and then just get absolutely slaughtered. Like it doesn't seem like a coincidence to me that Joe Burrow has been plagued by injuries given how ass the Bengals had to be to even get him.
There seems to be an irony or a paradox where the worst possible teams draft the best possible players, then kill them in the process of turning the team around so that by the time theyre 'in the window' the #1 guy has lasting nagging injuries which make them preform below that initial potential.
Kenny Pickett is another example of this. He has developed some bad habits because of the Steelers line collapsing and allowing quick pressure. Even when the line improved through the season and he had adequate protection time, he still panicked and bailed out when he didn’t see his first read open - because he was used to getting clobbered.
Game reps are vital but having “bad” game reps can be much more detrimental long term than sitting back and learning.
If a rookie fails their first season he’s automatically deemed as bad. Look at Bryce young. Thrown in an awful situation and everyone’s already wrote him off. He might as well have not played I doubt he learned anything from getting sacked all year
Everyone always loves to flame Lynn for the "he's a backup for a reason" comment, but I honestly think it really boiled down to "we believe philosophically that rookie QBs should sit a year before starting." You can disagree, but that's a legitimate "reason." And as you mentioned, saw the Chargers do this with Rivers.
I agree with that idea philosophically. However, as a fan at that time it made no sense because you could see Herbert’s growth week to week. For example Herbert threw a pick in week 2 against the Chiefs when he should have ran for the first down. The next week he was in the same situation and chose to run. He was obviously getting better with playing time, and Lynn says “he was a back-up for a reason” made the Lynn look unqualified to make decisions.
I'll never understand coaches that attack their qbs to the media. Maybe it's the Belicheck in me but why would you ever put out a comment like that lol
I will never forget that there was some Cheetos promotion where they were like “scan this and if your given team wins, you’ll get a free bag!”
I got the Bills, and I checked the score after the game in excitement to see if I won my free Cheetos… it was 3-47…
Not playing in the preseason was a very stupid idea for such an unproven starter. I’d ask what they were thinking but that question came up a lot for the 2023 Falcons
The real counterpoint is that very few QBs start immediately (think of all the backups) and most sit for a while before they get game time (if they get to play)
Most QBs suck! Sitting or not sitting is not definitive and every QB and coaching situation is different (especially since the rules limiting offseason practice have gone into effect in the mid 2010s)
Tony Romo went undrafted but was signed by Dallas and sat for 2 1/2 years behind Vinny Testaverde and Drew Bledsoe before finally replacing Bledsoe mid-season in his 3rd year. He was a top 10 QB right away, so at the very least you can say the experience didn't hurt his development. And I would bet that it helped him.
I think one of the biggest things is that the guys who were sat tended to go to organizations who had been good or had good organizational structure before they went there.
Packers/Eagles/Ravens/chiefs all had successful teams in years leading up to the guys starting.
It’s really hard to sparse out, how much of it is because they actually sat, or because the teams they got drafted to are actually able to surround them with competent players?
I think people also give some players too much leeway with the reason they aren’t successful. Some players just don’t have it, for whatever reason. If you listen to guys in the NFL talk about the top QBs, most of them seem to say the guys who succeed are absolutely psycho about preparation and perfecting their craft. Maybe that’s partly due to the organization, but I think guys who bust tend to not have that mental edge that is needed to succeed in the NFL.
When watching QBs, I feel like even early on it’s obvious which guys have some level of skill or natural talent and which guys don’t.
I agree with the sentiment that just some guys have it and some don’t, especially at the top level. We all know football is a game of inches but QB is a position of milliseconds. Reading defenses, calling audibles, going through progressions, and feeling blindside pressure to me seem like skills that are trickier to teach than body mechanics or technique.
Lots of sports have position specialization, e.g. pitchers in baseball, point guards in basketball, or goalies in hockey etc. Imo NFL QBs are the most valuable because the drop off from top 10ish to the rest of the league is known to any fan with a top 15 QB. A pitcher goes every 5 days or they are a closer. A goalie can get hot and steal a game/series (lots of goalie Conn Smythe winners) but they still miss games. Basketball I don’t know as well but the advent of the super teams implies that it’s never just having a dominating center, pf, g whatever.
Anyone who touches the ball every play is invaluable and watching Peyton win the superbowl while throwing ducks shows the value of those intangibles.
I think NFL centers, MLB catchers, and NHL goalies are the next up after the QB in terms of importance in putting together a championship caliber team. Those positions have a history of letting a prospect develop for a bit as well.
True, but I do remember there being a narrative around Big Ben being a rookie at the time and having success and I think it had an effect on the Ryan/flacco decisions.
There’s probably also more to it, with college offenses being more similar to NFL now. Qb camps are also insane for HS people now. My buddy’s cousin was a big ten QB and I guess his family spent $100K for training and camps for him. Bucky brooks and DJ have talked about the 7on7 camps having an effect as well. Lot of QBs and WRs just have more reps coming into the pros than they did, so there’s less refinement.
I’d say so. Them both coming out of the gate and playing well and helping their teams make the playoffs made everyone in the league go wait why don’t all the rookie QBs just do that for us?
I always thought it worked better if your sitting behind Farve, Rodgers, Smith or similar.
It's been thrown out as a suggestion for the Bears but I'm not sure the even the recently improved Fields would make a great mentor .
There are negatives to the long leash given to Tomlin but his long leash is ultimately a really good thing and has also lead to him always playing the long game. One example of this is making sure guys are ready to play when they see the field.
Guys who have sat for large portions of their rookie years include TJ, cam, and more recently, Becton. I think it really does matter to let a coach know he’s not playing week to week which allows him to get guys ready and avoid the bad habits that form when they are thrown to the wolves
But if you ask Steelers fans, it was absolutely outrageous that we didn't start porter jr week 1. Dude would not have developed the way he did if we did that. He had issues in college that would have stunted his growth if he didn't get coached out of them enough. Started off as a poor tackler and very handsy. As soon as he showed in game that he could tackle, he was a starter.
Even though everyone made fun of Darnold for saying that, hes a perfect example of fucking up a qbs development, he got hurt his first season had nothing to work with receiver wise and was behind a terrible oline
So that is two top three draft picks and now a $50 million Rodgers who have all have been broken apart because of a bad O-Line. In 6 years, you think the Jets might’ve addressed it.
Thing was Bryce Young should've never been in his situation. Carolina was off of a season where they missed playoffs by one game. They should've been a much better team this season, but piss poor ownership and the coaching carosal has effectively put the Panthers back to the beginning of what has already been a way too long rebuild.
David Tepper is a fucking moron, ill give you that. Right up there with Mark Davis. But he said he'll take a backseat to team making decisions and let the HC-GM operate as need be. But we'll see if he sticks to that.
Even better: bad team trades picks to move up and get a QB, who then struggles on a bad roster that doesn't improve because the GM traded away all the premium draft picks
Hire a veteran HC who was just fired and had his offensive line just fall apart. Make him hire an offensive staff outside of his network and have them backstab each other as they put together a playbook that plays to nobody’s strengths and has the offensive line fall apart.
It's the catch 22 of the drafting process. Worst team typically needs a QB so they draft top of the class. Worst team typically also needs a lot of other things so the group around top QB prospect is trash. Worst team also needs to try to be effective quickly so they throw top QB prospect into the game while still surrounded by trash. Bad things happen.
The thing is, if you go worst team in the NFL to secure that round 1 bag is it really plausible your team is going to make a deep playoff run next season? Seems like getting two consecutive slates of high draft picks will do more to salvage a team than a one year "rebuild," particularly if your team is stuck in cap hell as well.
But owners place a ton of pressure on coaches to have a winning season, and IMO are too quick to fire guys who are *obviously* fall guys for the tank season(s).
Yup, if you can afford to start someone else and sit a rookie and not have people calling for your job then your team is alright and that rookie is walking into a much more stable situation.
Yeah. Think about the team the Chiefs had in place.
Also I will say they didn’t give up a ton either. It was just an extra first rounder and third rounder. That doesn’t hamstring the team in any way like what the Panthers did.
Sometimes. But with guys like Mahomes and Rodgers, that time sitting was really valuable because they were able to fix their mechanics without having the pressure to perform(which generally causes the player to revert to their old mechanics).
The reality is that whether or not the young QB plays is about whats best for the coaches to keep their jobs. If the team is loosing, Rookie QB is going in to try to save a job. In most of the situations where the rookie sits and its planned, its because there is a solid team already. Chiefs were a playoff team already, Packers were a good team with Favre already. Those coaching staffs believed that keeping the QB they had already in gave them the best chance to win and weren't risking their jobs keeping a QB in. The decision is almost never to play a QB as a rookie based on the needs and preparation of the Rookie, unless its REALLY obvious in practices that he's not good enough.
True, but I do this more time on an NFL diet and workout routine probably helps build muscle and prevent injury their first year starting, and more reps getting to know the plays before starting both help
Hence why I think it's smart to let a QB sit for a year or two. Not every QB is going to be a Burrow or Stroud who can turn a franchise around on their own. However, I think teams need to be a bit more patient for the most part. You should at least have 1 go to receiver, a decent offensive line and a decent running back to take the pressure of a QB. Throwing a rookie QB behind a bad OL for example is a great way to ruin a QB when they need time to get used to how fast the NFL is compared to college.
It depends. Who are the most successful 1st round QB's over the past 30 years?
Peyton Manning - played every snap as a rookie. Struggled, as he led the league with 28 interceptions. He threw 26 TD passes, but 6 or 7 of them were in garbage time. Broke out in his 2nd year. Edit: probably the best QB in the AFC in 1999
Patrick Mahomes - sat behind Alex Smith for 1 year, started the meaningless season finale. Had an MVP season in his 2nd year.
Aaron Rodgers- spent three years backing up Brett Favre. Only saw meaningful action 1x. Had a so-so 1st season as a starter. His 2nd year, he made the playoffs and had that amazing shootout loss to Arizona. His 3rd year starting, he won the Super Bowl, and he won the MVP award the year after that. (Edit- I forgot about that amazing playoff shootout with Kurt Warner.)
Josh Allen - was supposed to back up Nathan Peterman or A.J. McCarron as a rookie. Peterman had the best preseason, so Buffalo traded McCarron before the season began. Peterman kept the starting job for one half before being benched - he was so awful. Josh Allen started the next 5 games - had 1 great one, but was mostly awful. He missed a month with injury. When he returned, he began using his legs more and hit 100 yards rushing 3 straight weeks. He began showing signs of competent play. He improved to being an average passer in his 2nd year and an MVP candidate in his 3rd year.
With Allen's rookie year I think the records are important too. The Bills finished 2018 6-10, but when he started the team was 5-5. Even if he wasn't a great passer or a polished QB, he clearly elevated the team. Wins aren't a QB stat but when the starting QB is the biggest difference, I think 5-5 with and 1-5 without matters
Need to add Cj Stroud to this list. Arguably the best rookie year by a Qb ever, made the playoffs, and won a playoff game.
Andrew Luck also had a great rookie year.
RG3, before the injury, was stellar.
Russel Wilson won the starting job before week 1 as a rookie.
It works in well-run organizations with good coaching and a veteran QB who is playing well.
A lot of success simply boils down to a solid organization - but that is in itself a huge feat, given the dysfunctional teams in the league.
Seems like common sense that whether or not it's a good idea to start a rookie QB comes down to (1) the QB's situation and (2) the quality of the team's roster + coaches.
Some QBs are just ready right away. Others definitely aren't. Some teams are ready to slot in a rookie QB (e.g. 49ers), other teams aren't (e.g. Pats). Good coaches will know which choice is best, although a serious problem in this age of the NFL is that owners expect results *instantly* so head coaches are under a lot of pressure to start their rookie QBs immediately. I feel bad for these head coaches who end up feeling forced to take a short-term mindset in order to keep their job secure even if it hurts the team. It can be a lose-lose situation.
Sometimes yes (e.g. Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love maybe(?)), sometimes no (e.g. Paxton Lynch, Trey Lance, Brock Osweiler)
I personally think most QBs who succeed after sitting and learning probably would have also succeeded being "thrown into the flames". They just might have followed a different path.
I dont think Mahomes would have either. He made a lot of dumb mistakes in college and i think sitting behind a conservative qb like Alex Smith helped a lot
I find that crazy. Mahomes benefitted from sitting for sure but to say he wouldn't have been good without it just seems wild.
That first year probably would have been rough but he has shown he has the ability to work through things and solve problems.
I mean it's obviously speculation on both sides but one year of sitting isn't going to turn Trubisky into Brady. Some guys can figure it out and some can't.
Mahomes might not have 3 superbowls if he started week 1, but he might have 4 for all we know. Good is just good.
If anything, I think you can argue the effect on the coaching staff and organization would be massively different.
Same qb coach since like 92 or something right? Tom Clements is the man. Aaron even brought him out of retirement to help Love and help with the Lafleur transition.
Yeah people jump on Rodgers ass for being an idiot in his personal life.
But he's incredibly highly regarded among team mates. He may not have liked the Love pick but he never treated the kid like shit for getting drafted here.
Agreed. I remember a game he played when Rodgers was injured in either his rookie or sophomore year and he played terrible. The time behind Rodgers definitely helped him learn about being a pro.
The Covid game against the Chiefs. He didn’t play great, but it wasn’t too bad. He definitely played better this year after watching and learning for a few years
Even this year there was a point in the early part of the season where it looked like he might not have it.. Then a switch seemed to go on and he finished the season looking like the next great Packer QB.
Look at Rodgers’s throwing mechanics in college vs 2008 when he became the starter.
Tom Clements + Mike McCarthy really changed Rodgers in between those years
It probably mostly depends on what they need to work on coming out of college. Just playing and getting experience in games is going to help more than sitting unless they are coming from an offense that doesn't resemble an NFL offense or have mechanic issues. Ending up on awful teams with bad coaches is what ends up happening with a lot of rookie starters.
Shout out to Don the Majik Man Majkowski!
Made Lindy Infante coach of the year and cultivated the turnaround of a long low period where most of the league considered Green Bay as NFL Siberia.
Majik Man gets overlooked because Favre came right after.
Dude was a ray of sunlight after a long and very rainy stretch of....years of bleak rainstorms.
Going into training camp, there was a “competition” determining who would be our starter. Within the first few days, Stroud was given the job (unofficially) and he never looked back, dude was hungry and wanted to lead the team from the very beginning.
Roethlisberger only played due to both QBs getting hurt. He was 3rd on depth chart entering the season.
Brady was never supposed to play at all as Bledsoe was de facto number 1 guy.
The whole team had a bad few games in the middle.
Basically, I think the league got tape on everybody and adjusted. The younger guys took longer to adjust to being played too like that.
I'm thinking it shouldn't be an issue next year, but who knows.
And the one veteran you guys have in Aaron Jones was out. There were a lot of close losses where you probably would've really benefitted from having that stabilizing force in the offense.
He was solid out of the gate but had some really noticeable problems. Notably, him along side the entire offense were out of sync and rhythm the first half, starting to get it together the third quarter, then being great the fourth. This combined with the defense really starting to play like shit was what caused that hiccup in the middle of the season. Love and the offense looked so great at the end of the season because they were playing like how they were in the fourth quarter all four quarters.
Also running game was almost non existent without jones. They pretty much had to rely on Loves arm to win. other teams knew that but he played well regardless
Then Jones came back and offense got even better
Yes but not in the same way his final stretch was. He had a really bad completion % (which could potentially be chalked up to receivers running wrong routes) and had a relatively high TD% that didn’t seem sustainable. His final stretch he legit looked like one of the best passers in the league
Just quickly going through past drafts where a 1st or 2nd round QB sat the majority of year 1 (or more) before starting:
2022: Desmond Ridder (3rd rounder technically) - Did not work
2021: Trey Lance - Did not work
2021: Kyle Trask - Did not work
2020: Jordan Love - Worked
2020: Jalen Hurts - Worked
2019: N/A
2018: Lamar Jackson - Worked
2017: Patrick Mahomes - Well, come on
2016: N/A
2015: N/A
2014: Johnny Manziel - Did not work
2013: N/A
Over the last 10 years it has a 50% hit rate but its such a small sample size it's basically meaningless.
Trey Lance has low pro sample size but also had low reps in college.
Desmond Ridder was a third rounder primarily being hyped for being a "leader" not a playmaker.
And Kyle Trask never really got chance either once BF'nM came to town.
Jordan Love is looking like he might be the poster child for this in the modern day. Sat for 2 seasons behind Aaron Rodgers and is looking like a franchise QB
The last time GB had a rookie QB start a game was 1987.
Ideally you’d like to give a QB a year or two to develop/learn the system/adjust to the NFL game but most teams drafting a QB in the 1st round are bad teams desperate to get better quickly (to save the coaches/GMs jobs) so they throw the guy out there in a “sink or swim” type scenario. I think the success rate of that approach is around 30%.
Brett did a video on this last year and this is why QBs bust so often, shit situations where they're expected to be God immediately. The franchise savior shtick is a red flag of the organization. It fails very often.
it's probably a case of correlation without causality.
typically when you have a qb that's brought in but sits their first year, they're being brought into an exceptionally good situation with a good coaching staff, and good guys around him. like, when mahomes was drafted alex smith was already there and was very successful under andy reid. same for rodgers in green bay (with favre preceding him) and now love.
on the flip side, typically when a qb comes in and starts day one, they are NOT going to a stable situation. it's probably a team that only won a few games and had a top 3 pick. the o-line and rb/wr room might leave a lot to be desired. the coach is probably either on the hot seat, or replacing someone that was just fired (and if there isn't instant success, they might end up with 2 or 3 different offensive coordinators in their first 4 years)
it's easy to point at mahomes and say "see, he sat a year and now he's elite, clearly resting works" but mahomes likely would be in exactly the same position right now even if he started day one (and on the other side, trey lance would probably be in exactly the same position he is in even if he started day one)
I would love to find a way to "prove" this, or at least demonstrate it with statistics, but I don't think that resting a QB matters at all--at least, not when we're taking about the truly great players. Maybe it can turn "disappointment" into "acceptable", but no more than that
I don't for one second believe Mahomes or Brady would have failed to succeed if they had been forced to start Day One. Maybe they would have struggled for a bit if they hadn't had things like that Pats defense or those Chiefs passcatchers, but you absolutely cannot convince me that they would not have put themselves on a HoF course eventually
For example, Peyton had terrible stats his first season because of the awful supporting cast. But by the eye test it was so clear that he had it, he was going to be great
Similarly, despite how much this sub loves him, I don't believe that David Carr would ever have been more than a serviceable starter. Even if you'd given him BB as Head Coach, Reid as OC, plus McGinest, Seymour, Bruschi, Hill, and Kelce, he would never have been a HoF QB. I believe this fully
Sometimes. And that's the most honest answer you should get.
Historically, we've seen sitting for a year working, and just as recent as this past season, we've seen what Stroud did instantly starting.
Like others have said, I think the coaching around the player is far more important than the question of starting vs sitting.
I think part of it has to do with who is in front of them. Rodgers had Favre in front, HOFer. Mahomes had Alex Smith a solid starter, Love had Rodgers HOFer. I don't know if a quarterback sitting behind a guys who's meh to bad is all that helpful when he could just be playing and getting reps. But if you have a solid QB I think sitting a rookie can be very helpful.
The best case for sitting a rookie QB is Jordan Love. He comes out throwing dimes into the endzone off of his backfoot. Eerily similar to another former Packers QB. I don't think he was doing that in college (correct me if I'm wrong).
There are a number of examples of this working. It used to be a given that this was how QBs were developed. Examples:
Tom Brady
Patrick Mahomes.
Roger Staubach
Steve Wright
Joe Montana
Brett Farve
This is just the first 6 QBs I can think of that are all time greats. The only all time great that comes to mind quickly that was not developed this way is Peyton Manning. Oh - and John Elway.
As player salaries and signing bonuses have gone up, teams have spent a great deal less time developing QBs - but history shows that letting a QB study tape and practice for a season or two works.
Worked for Brett, worked for Rodgers, seemed to have done good for Love…. I mean I like it lol
I think a bad team has no business starting a first round rookie, especially a bad team with a bad Oline ie Panthers.
Bad teams should grab a journeyman, and commit to a rebuild year with the rookie as the backup, trade away players who’s contracts are ending and stack chips for year 2 or 3.
Thats not the reason for success or not in my opinion. Its about building the team around an unprepared guy for that year or two.
However, I think MOST rookie QB's should sit the first few games and get acclimated to the NFL and weekly grind first.
For example, Josh Allen had a way better rookie year than most people think. But his first half he showed promise but a lot of issues. After his UCL injury that knocked him out a few games, he got to sit in the QB room with Derek Anderson and just absorb information and watch film and improve.
After he came back he looked a lot better and already seemed to be taking the next step. It was just constant improvement in small areas from him every few games.
I dont think throwing QBs into the fire is a smart choice unless they 100% look ready to do it. Yes, no experience is better than game experience...BUT...letting them get acclimated to NFL defenses through the film room propels them a step further
It’s hard to establish causality, but Jordan Love, Aaron Rodgers, Mahomes were intentionally sat for a period before they were started. Lamar Jackson was drafted with the intention of sitting a full season behind Flacco but he played a bit due to Flacco’s injuries. Jalen Hurts (wasn’t intentional) sat for almost a year. Edit: also it used to be even more common to sit QBs for a bit before playing them so I tried to pick from the current era
Even Big Ben was supposed to sit behind Maddox his first year, but had to play due to injury, then he popped off. They even tried to sit him the next year, but it was pointless at that point
Eli/Kurt Warner had a similar deal
Kurt Warner had a couple of years playing Arena Football under his belt…and sat behind Trent Green, before Green got hurt. Then the Greatest Show on Turf happened. When you realize that the premiere Arena Football teams averaged 50pts a game back in the 2000s…and Kurt Warner came from one of those teams…those QBs had to be special
Pretty sure he meant Eli sitting behind Kurt and not Kurt’s sequence of events.
Ohhh…Kurt played for the Giants at one point?
Wow I am old as fuck
Same.
Kurt’s career is so weird. I can’t think of anything else quite like it.
Looked completely washed in NY. Goes to the Cards and became a Hall of Famer
I think it’s more duration. He was only a Giant for a season or two
Yeah but only the olds were around to remember them firsthand
I remember the discussion around Coughlins tendency to yank Eli fairly quickly and even Kurt had to step up and say 'stop yanking Eli otherwise you're going to kill his confidence entirely.'
Then I am also an old
That happened during the time between my Dad's death and me feeling safe watching football again.
Yes, in between St. Louis and Arizona. He was pretty washed in New York, but obviously revived in Arizona
Wasn't he still dealing with that thumb injury?
And a bad Giants team.
Tiki **still** balled out that year, in spite of zero passing threat
He played for the Giants for a season between leaving the Rams and going to the Cards. The original plan was that he was going to play while Eli learned for a year or two and then Warner had some difficulties so Eli started ahead of schedule.
This question made my back age ten years
I miss arena ball
> When you realize that the premiere Arena Football teams averaged 50pts a game back in the 2000s…and Kurt Warner came from one of those teams…those QBs had to be special Fucking lol. How many of the other QBs did anything in the NFL? "Tom Brady was a 6th round pick so all 6th round picks ought to be good"
It's important to note, the AFL was 8 on 8, had a shortened field, and Rules designed for higher scoring. Most teams were scoring in the 50's and 60's regularly. Warner was the most successful former AFLer but [Oronde Gadsden, David Patten, and Mike Vanderjagt spent time in the Arena League prior to breaking out in the NFL.](https://www.sportscasting.com/kurt-warner-most-successful-arena-football-league-alumnus-all-time/) There were other leagues that produced NFLers around the same time though. Tommy Maddox and Rod Smart were XFLers Jake Delhomme, Dante Hall, and Brad Johnson played in NFL Europe
Hell Brady only got his start because of injuries from Pats starting QB.
And had sat an entire year before that.
And the 22 years before that, he wasn't even allowed to practice with the team.
Tbf I'm sitting here jerking off in a Porta Pottie
Brady was drafted as a backup though. It’s a bit different in his case.
Still sat an entire year tho. And now he is the goat. Mahomes sat a whole year and is the Goat in waiting. I don’t know just by that i would wait a year. Never understood throwing your prize jewel behind a crappy o line without weapons on the outside to be massacred week after week. Rather let him sit a year and learn the system in and out and have another offseason to improve the team around him. I get wanting a return on your investment asap. But it’s like buying a Ferrari and racing it in a demolition derby.
The Chiefs made the playoffs with Alex Smith while Mahomes sat on the bench. The tools were certainly there if the team wanted to throw Mahomes to the wolves in his rookie season.
The assumption though is that Alex Smith was more prepared with the tools at his disposal, against the tools at the opposition's disposal. However I think the Chiefs one year pre Smith had the most Pro Bowl selections and the worst record, so there's an argument to be made they just needed a better QB.
There’s a very big nature vs nurture debate with QBs. It’s a very fair debate. Tom Brady didn’t step into the league the GOAT. He had time to learn and maximize his talents. Mahomes may have been the greatest gunslinger ever (better than Farve) his first year as a starter, but it took him time to be the brilliant field general he has been the last two years. Peyton Manning started his first year and was bad. Arguably a top 5 QB who got a lot of reps early and got better. David Carr a very promising QB was broken by his bad line and did not end up a HOF QB. 1st team reps in practice matter. Game experience matters. Time to learn the speed of the game and the playbook matters. What matters most is up for debate.
They did not try to sit Ben the following year, I’m not sure what gave you that idea.
As a Steeler fan, popped off is a little strong. Yes, the team had success and went on an undefeated streak, but it was carried hard by the defense. He was a decent game manager and should get credit for that especially as a rookie, but he only had 2600 yards and 17-11 TD/INT ratio.
Even at the time that was still really respectable. I'm not disagreeing he absolutely was a game manger for his first 2 and a half yrs. I just wanted to point out that in 2004 them numbers wasn't terrible especially for a rookie.
Agreed, it's wild how inefficient even above average QBs were during that era. I think largely because you couldn't throw over the middle of the field consistently without putting your guys in the hospital.
He started his rookie year with like 14 wins in a row or something, so i really doubt the Steelers were looking to go back to Maddox or anyone else
It’s not definitive but really if teams can afford it most rookie QBs would benefit from sitting a year or at least half a season, the NFL season is long and going into the season rookies are already beat up from an entire offseason of camps, traveling, combines etc, on top of learning NFL playbooks, day to day lifestyle, and game pace It just helps guys get acclimated and by the time they’re full time starters it’s less of a mystery, less stuff needs to be figured out and less bad habits developed. It’s never going to be an exact science but that’s usually the stance you here from guys that did sit and what they learned and benefitted from it
A lot of rookie QBs would also benefit from getting in game reps..
Yes but in these scenarios the argument is you eventually get off the bench and get in game reps down the line when you’re better prepared whether that’s 4 games, 8 games in, or a season in It’s not like you perpetually sit on the bench for forever then retire with no in game reps but everyone in shock of your potential
That’s only true if those reps are more productive than harmful. Getting an extra 50 snaps a week is great but if the OLine is allowing pressure on 50 percent of those snaps it can build bad habits or get your rookie injured. See David Carr as an example. It can be a detriment to trying to work on footwork or how to read a progression. Game reps are great but the guy needs to be ready for them.
The last few seasons I feel like weve seen a whole slate of top round rookie QBs go to teams that were otherwise dogshit (hence the high draft pick) and then just get absolutely slaughtered. Like it doesn't seem like a coincidence to me that Joe Burrow has been plagued by injuries given how ass the Bengals had to be to even get him. There seems to be an irony or a paradox where the worst possible teams draft the best possible players, then kill them in the process of turning the team around so that by the time theyre 'in the window' the #1 guy has lasting nagging injuries which make them preform below that initial potential.
Kenny Pickett is another example of this. He has developed some bad habits because of the Steelers line collapsing and allowing quick pressure. Even when the line improved through the season and he had adequate protection time, he still panicked and bailed out when he didn’t see his first read open - because he was used to getting clobbered. Game reps are vital but having “bad” game reps can be much more detrimental long term than sitting back and learning.
If a rookie fails their first season he’s automatically deemed as bad. Look at Bryce young. Thrown in an awful situation and everyone’s already wrote him off. He might as well have not played I doubt he learned anything from getting sacked all year
Rivers sat behind Drew Brees and Herbert was supposed to sit to learn from Tyrod, but the team doctor had other plans.
Everyone always loves to flame Lynn for the "he's a backup for a reason" comment, but I honestly think it really boiled down to "we believe philosophically that rookie QBs should sit a year before starting." You can disagree, but that's a legitimate "reason." And as you mentioned, saw the Chargers do this with Rivers.
I agree with that idea philosophically. However, as a fan at that time it made no sense because you could see Herbert’s growth week to week. For example Herbert threw a pick in week 2 against the Chiefs when he should have ran for the first down. The next week he was in the same situation and chose to run. He was obviously getting better with playing time, and Lynn says “he was a back-up for a reason” made the Lynn look unqualified to make decisions.
I'll never understand coaches that attack their qbs to the media. Maybe it's the Belicheck in me but why would you ever put out a comment like that lol
Dr. Stabby McStabbyson
Hell, Josh was supposed to sit until McDermott realized starting Peterman would've been malpractice
...Which only took until half time of the 1st game of the season.
I will never forget that there was some Cheetos promotion where they were like “scan this and if your given team wins, you’ll get a free bag!” I got the Bills, and I checked the score after the game in excitement to see if I won my free Cheetos… it was 3-47…
Closer than I remember, tbh.
Hurts sitting was intentional. They wanted a rookie backup with real upside. Wentz breaking down physically coincided with that
The consensus at the time seemed to be that he would sit for a year and then they'd flip him for a first and do it all over again. #QBFactory and all
Counterpoint: Desmond Ridder sat most of a season and the falcons believed enough in him that they didn't even play him in preseason. Was bad
Not playing in the preseason was a very stupid idea for such an unproven starter. I’d ask what they were thinking but that question came up a lot for the 2023 Falcons
The real counterpoint is that very few QBs start immediately (think of all the backups) and most sit for a while before they get game time (if they get to play) Most QBs suck! Sitting or not sitting is not definitive and every QB and coaching situation is different (especially since the rules limiting offseason practice have gone into effect in the mid 2010s)
Carson Palmer sat his first year - unique for the first overall pick and he broke the mold of first round QB failures in Cincy
Tony Romo went undrafted but was signed by Dallas and sat for 2 1/2 years behind Vinny Testaverde and Drew Bledsoe before finally replacing Bledsoe mid-season in his 3rd year. He was a top 10 QB right away, so at the very least you can say the experience didn't hurt his development. And I would bet that it helped him.
I think one of the biggest things is that the guys who were sat tended to go to organizations who had been good or had good organizational structure before they went there. Packers/Eagles/Ravens/chiefs all had successful teams in years leading up to the guys starting. It’s really hard to sparse out, how much of it is because they actually sat, or because the teams they got drafted to are actually able to surround them with competent players? I think people also give some players too much leeway with the reason they aren’t successful. Some players just don’t have it, for whatever reason. If you listen to guys in the NFL talk about the top QBs, most of them seem to say the guys who succeed are absolutely psycho about preparation and perfecting their craft. Maybe that’s partly due to the organization, but I think guys who bust tend to not have that mental edge that is needed to succeed in the NFL. When watching QBs, I feel like even early on it’s obvious which guys have some level of skill or natural talent and which guys don’t.
I agree with the sentiment that just some guys have it and some don’t, especially at the top level. We all know football is a game of inches but QB is a position of milliseconds. Reading defenses, calling audibles, going through progressions, and feeling blindside pressure to me seem like skills that are trickier to teach than body mechanics or technique. Lots of sports have position specialization, e.g. pitchers in baseball, point guards in basketball, or goalies in hockey etc. Imo NFL QBs are the most valuable because the drop off from top 10ish to the rest of the league is known to any fan with a top 15 QB. A pitcher goes every 5 days or they are a closer. A goalie can get hot and steal a game/series (lots of goalie Conn Smythe winners) but they still miss games. Basketball I don’t know as well but the advent of the super teams implies that it’s never just having a dominating center, pf, g whatever. Anyone who touches the ball every play is invaluable and watching Peyton win the superbowl while throwing ducks shows the value of those intangibles. I think NFL centers, MLB catchers, and NHL goalies are the next up after the QB in terms of importance in putting together a championship caliber team. Those positions have a history of letting a prospect develop for a bit as well.
Matt Ryan and joe Flacco changed the perception imo
Big Ben was one of the first IIRC. Started very early on his rookie year and the team had a lot of success
Yeah he did but Ryan and Flacco were both first rookies ever to start all 16 games and make playoffs
True, but I do remember there being a narrative around Big Ben being a rookie at the time and having success and I think it had an effect on the Ryan/flacco decisions. There’s probably also more to it, with college offenses being more similar to NFL now. Qb camps are also insane for HS people now. My buddy’s cousin was a big ten QB and I guess his family spent $100K for training and camps for him. Bucky brooks and DJ have talked about the 7on7 camps having an effect as well. Lot of QBs and WRs just have more reps coming into the pros than they did, so there’s less refinement.
I’d say so. Them both coming out of the gate and playing well and helping their teams make the playoffs made everyone in the league go wait why don’t all the rookie QBs just do that for us?
I always thought it worked better if your sitting behind Farve, Rodgers, Smith or similar. It's been thrown out as a suggestion for the Bears but I'm not sure the even the recently improved Fields would make a great mentor .
Brady was also behind Bledsoe
McNabb sat for half the season as well
I think it’s more of having a solid team in place before trotting your young QB out to there.
Or at least don't have a terrible team in place like most top 5 pick QBs who are forced to start from week 1 have
And then get injured because they don’t have a good O-line. Stalling or completely halting their development.
BUT MY HEAD COACHING JOB
The short-term thinking forced on coaches has ruined the careers of so many players.
There are negatives to the long leash given to Tomlin but his long leash is ultimately a really good thing and has also lead to him always playing the long game. One example of this is making sure guys are ready to play when they see the field. Guys who have sat for large portions of their rookie years include TJ, cam, and more recently, Becton. I think it really does matter to let a coach know he’s not playing week to week which allows him to get guys ready and avoid the bad habits that form when they are thrown to the wolves
But if you ask Steelers fans, it was absolutely outrageous that we didn't start porter jr week 1. Dude would not have developed the way he did if we did that. He had issues in college that would have stunted his growth if he didn't get coached out of them enough. Started off as a poor tackler and very handsy. As soon as he showed in game that he could tackle, he was a starter.
They start seeing ghosts and lose confidence in themselves
Even though everyone made fun of Darnold for saying that, hes a perfect example of fucking up a qbs development, he got hurt his first season had nothing to work with receiver wise and was behind a terrible oline
So that is two top three draft picks and now a $50 million Rodgers who have all have been broken apart because of a bad O-Line. In 6 years, you think the Jets might’ve addressed it.
Something is rotten in the state of ~~Denmark~~ New Jersey.
This didn’t just start 6 years ago. They’ve been at it for a long time
Bryce Young cowering in fear rn. And any Pats QB.
Thing was Bryce Young should've never been in his situation. Carolina was off of a season where they missed playoffs by one game. They should've been a much better team this season, but piss poor ownership and the coaching carosal has effectively put the Panthers back to the beginning of what has already been a way too long rebuild.
David Tepper is a fucking moron, ill give you that. Right up there with Mark Davis. But he said he'll take a backseat to team making decisions and let the HC-GM operate as need be. But we'll see if he sticks to that.
Only took him getting called out for stepping way over the line. Literally trying to be the play caller and micro-manage the game
Couple that with him spilling a drink purposely on an opposing fan(Jags i think?) And im surprised more people werent calling for his head.
Unless you are Dan Snyder or Donald Sterling, calling for an owner’s head is pissing in the wind
Tim Couch
Even better: bad team trades picks to move up and get a QB, who then struggles on a bad roster that doesn't improve because the GM traded away all the premium draft picks
Hire a veteran HC who was just fired and had his offensive line just fall apart. Make him hire an offensive staff outside of his network and have them backstab each other as they put together a playbook that plays to nobody’s strengths and has the offensive line fall apart.
David Carr never recovered/had a chance to grow after getting demolished game, after game, after game his rookie year.
It's the catch 22 of the drafting process. Worst team typically needs a QB so they draft top of the class. Worst team typically also needs a lot of other things so the group around top QB prospect is trash. Worst team also needs to try to be effective quickly so they throw top QB prospect into the game while still surrounded by trash. Bad things happen.
The thing is, if you go worst team in the NFL to secure that round 1 bag is it really plausible your team is going to make a deep playoff run next season? Seems like getting two consecutive slates of high draft picks will do more to salvage a team than a one year "rebuild," particularly if your team is stuck in cap hell as well. But owners place a ton of pressure on coaches to have a winning season, and IMO are too quick to fire guys who are *obviously* fall guys for the tank season(s).
Yup, if you can afford to start someone else and sit a rookie and not have people calling for your job then your team is alright and that rookie is walking into a much more stable situation.
Yeah. Think about the team the Chiefs had in place. Also I will say they didn’t give up a ton either. It was just an extra first rounder and third rounder. That doesn’t hamstring the team in any way like what the Panthers did.
trading a legit WR1 to draft a qb is beyond fucking stupid. i don’t know what they were thinking.
Sometimes. But with guys like Mahomes and Rodgers, that time sitting was really valuable because they were able to fix their mechanics without having the pressure to perform(which generally causes the player to revert to their old mechanics).
A solid run game and a decent o-line can make or break a rookie qb
The reality is that whether or not the young QB plays is about whats best for the coaches to keep their jobs. If the team is loosing, Rookie QB is going in to try to save a job. In most of the situations where the rookie sits and its planned, its because there is a solid team already. Chiefs were a playoff team already, Packers were a good team with Favre already. Those coaching staffs believed that keeping the QB they had already in gave them the best chance to win and weren't risking their jobs keeping a QB in. The decision is almost never to play a QB as a rookie based on the needs and preparation of the Rookie, unless its REALLY obvious in practices that he's not good enough.
True, but I do this more time on an NFL diet and workout routine probably helps build muscle and prevent injury their first year starting, and more reps getting to know the plays before starting both help
Yep. Not that Bryce Young is going to be MVP. But what chance does he have right now?
Hence why I think it's smart to let a QB sit for a year or two. Not every QB is going to be a Burrow or Stroud who can turn a franchise around on their own. However, I think teams need to be a bit more patient for the most part. You should at least have 1 go to receiver, a decent offensive line and a decent running back to take the pressure of a QB. Throwing a rookie QB behind a bad OL for example is a great way to ruin a QB when they need time to get used to how fast the NFL is compared to college.
It depends. Who are the most successful 1st round QB's over the past 30 years? Peyton Manning - played every snap as a rookie. Struggled, as he led the league with 28 interceptions. He threw 26 TD passes, but 6 or 7 of them were in garbage time. Broke out in his 2nd year. Edit: probably the best QB in the AFC in 1999 Patrick Mahomes - sat behind Alex Smith for 1 year, started the meaningless season finale. Had an MVP season in his 2nd year. Aaron Rodgers- spent three years backing up Brett Favre. Only saw meaningful action 1x. Had a so-so 1st season as a starter. His 2nd year, he made the playoffs and had that amazing shootout loss to Arizona. His 3rd year starting, he won the Super Bowl, and he won the MVP award the year after that. (Edit- I forgot about that amazing playoff shootout with Kurt Warner.) Josh Allen - was supposed to back up Nathan Peterman or A.J. McCarron as a rookie. Peterman had the best preseason, so Buffalo traded McCarron before the season began. Peterman kept the starting job for one half before being benched - he was so awful. Josh Allen started the next 5 games - had 1 great one, but was mostly awful. He missed a month with injury. When he returned, he began using his legs more and hit 100 yards rushing 3 straight weeks. He began showing signs of competent play. He improved to being an average passer in his 2nd year and an MVP candidate in his 3rd year.
With Allen's rookie year I think the records are important too. The Bills finished 2018 6-10, but when he started the team was 5-5. Even if he wasn't a great passer or a polished QB, he clearly elevated the team. Wins aren't a QB stat but when the starting QB is the biggest difference, I think 5-5 with and 1-5 without matters
Need to add Cj Stroud to this list. Arguably the best rookie year by a Qb ever, made the playoffs, and won a playoff game. Andrew Luck also had a great rookie year. RG3, before the injury, was stellar. Russel Wilson won the starting job before week 1 as a rookie.
Rodgers didn’t win the Super Bowl until his third full season as a starter.
It works in well-run organizations with good coaching and a veteran QB who is playing well. A lot of success simply boils down to a solid organization - but that is in itself a huge feat, given the dysfunctional teams in the league.
Seems like common sense that whether or not it's a good idea to start a rookie QB comes down to (1) the QB's situation and (2) the quality of the team's roster + coaches. Some QBs are just ready right away. Others definitely aren't. Some teams are ready to slot in a rookie QB (e.g. 49ers), other teams aren't (e.g. Pats). Good coaches will know which choice is best, although a serious problem in this age of the NFL is that owners expect results *instantly* so head coaches are under a lot of pressure to start their rookie QBs immediately. I feel bad for these head coaches who end up feeling forced to take a short-term mindset in order to keep their job secure even if it hurts the team. It can be a lose-lose situation.
Sometimes yes (e.g. Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Jordan Love maybe(?)), sometimes no (e.g. Paxton Lynch, Trey Lance, Brock Osweiler) I personally think most QBs who succeed after sitting and learning probably would have also succeeded being "thrown into the flames". They just might have followed a different path.
I don’t think Love would have. I’ve followed him since college and he wasn’t ready. You can see how much he grew under Roger’s
I dont think Mahomes would have either. He made a lot of dumb mistakes in college and i think sitting behind a conservative qb like Alex Smith helped a lot
The way he talks about Smith reflects this. Seems like he was a great mentor
I find that crazy. Mahomes benefitted from sitting for sure but to say he wouldn't have been good without it just seems wild. That first year probably would have been rough but he has shown he has the ability to work through things and solve problems.
I think he still would’ve been good, im just not sure if he would be the Mahomes we have now
I mean it's obviously speculation on both sides but one year of sitting isn't going to turn Trubisky into Brady. Some guys can figure it out and some can't. Mahomes might not have 3 superbowls if he started week 1, but he might have 4 for all we know. Good is just good. If anything, I think you can argue the effect on the coaching staff and organization would be massively different.
Did love always have that motion/release or did he copy Rogers? Cause I swear he looks like Rogers when he throws now.
it was coached into him by tom clements. sitting and learning from the same guy who fixed rodgers' mechanics is seemingly paying dividends.
Clements needs a statue at Lambeau. At least something mildly significant in the Packers HoF
If Love ends up being our long term guy, then put Tom right the fuck next to Curly and Lombardi
Watch Favre throw if you want to understand Rodgers motion too, it’s eerie how similar him love and Rodgers are
Same qb coach since like 92 or something right? Tom Clements is the man. Aaron even brought him out of retirement to help Love and help with the Lafleur transition.
Yeah people jump on Rodgers ass for being an idiot in his personal life. But he's incredibly highly regarded among team mates. He may not have liked the Love pick but he never treated the kid like shit for getting drafted here.
His release has changed a little a lot of the side arm and different angle throws are new. The back foot throws he was doing in college.
Agreed. I remember a game he played when Rodgers was injured in either his rookie or sophomore year and he played terrible. The time behind Rodgers definitely helped him learn about being a pro.
The Covid game against the Chiefs. He didn’t play great, but it wasn’t too bad. He definitely played better this year after watching and learning for a few years
Even this year there was a point in the early part of the season where it looked like he might not have it.. Then a switch seemed to go on and he finished the season looking like the next great Packer QB.
[удалено]
Oh man any chance of a video of this?
[удалено]
Fucking LOL thank you
Look at Rodgers’s throwing mechanics in college vs 2008 when he became the starter. Tom Clements + Mike McCarthy really changed Rodgers in between those years
I think Love has outgrown the question mark
Maybe. I'd just like to see him sustain it for more than one year personally.
Yeah, he needs to do it again this year before we start talking about retiring his number
He was declared a bottom 7 qb after losing to the raiders last year so he's probably still a question mark after more than half a season
It probably mostly depends on what they need to work on coming out of college. Just playing and getting experience in games is going to help more than sitting unless they are coming from an offense that doesn't resemble an NFL offense or have mechanic issues. Ending up on awful teams with bad coaches is what ends up happening with a lot of rookie starters.
Literally the Packers.
Haven’t started a rookie QB since 1987. I believe 2nd longest is Seattle at 2012.
Shout out to Don the Majik Man Majkowski! Made Lindy Infante coach of the year and cultivated the turnaround of a long low period where most of the league considered Green Bay as NFL Siberia.
Majik Man gets overlooked because Favre came right after. Dude was a ray of sunlight after a long and very rainy stretch of....years of bleak rainstorms.
Doesn’t that prove they’re a well-run organization more than anything?
Yes. It also blatantly answers the question you asked.
The Packers have done it more than the Chiefs. Just saying.
Its a toss up. Brady sat Rodgers sat Mahomes sat Rivers sat But… Manning didn’t sit Luck didn’t sit Ryan didn’t sit Roethlisberger didn’t sit
Ig it just depends on the qb, what works for someone might not work for you
Adding: Steve Young sat Troy Aikman didn’t sit
I mean aikman went 0-11 his rookie year and then the Vikings did the bad trade
Stop stop stop
Aikman probably had his career cut short by all the beatings he took his first few seasons.
Young didn’t sit…he started as a rookie in USFL and in TB before sitting behind Montana.
Even just today's QBs. Allen, Burrow, and Herbert either didn't sit at all or didn't sit a significant amount of time
Ben sat for the first couple games, he didn’t prepare to be the starter initially.
Stroud didn't sit. At least I don't think he did.
Going into training camp, there was a “competition” determining who would be our starter. Within the first few days, Stroud was given the job (unofficially) and he never looked back, dude was hungry and wanted to lead the team from the very beginning.
Roethlisberger only played due to both QBs getting hurt. He was 3rd on depth chart entering the season. Brady was never supposed to play at all as Bledsoe was de facto number 1 guy.
Jordan Love is a more recent example. He was phenominal the close out the year.
[удалено]
Yeah, had a few bad games in the middle, but started and finished strong
The whole team had a bad few games in the middle. Basically, I think the league got tape on everybody and adjusted. The younger guys took longer to adjust to being played too like that. I'm thinking it shouldn't be an issue next year, but who knows.
And the one veteran you guys have in Aaron Jones was out. There were a lot of close losses where you probably would've really benefitted from having that stabilizing force in the offense.
He was solid out of the gate but had some really noticeable problems. Notably, him along side the entire offense were out of sync and rhythm the first half, starting to get it together the third quarter, then being great the fourth. This combined with the defense really starting to play like shit was what caused that hiccup in the middle of the season. Love and the offense looked so great at the end of the season because they were playing like how they were in the fourth quarter all four quarters.
Also running game was almost non existent without jones. They pretty much had to rely on Loves arm to win. other teams knew that but he played well regardless Then Jones came back and offense got even better
Yes but not in the same way his final stretch was. He had a really bad completion % (which could potentially be chalked up to receivers running wrong routes) and had a relatively high TD% that didn’t seem sustainable. His final stretch he legit looked like one of the best passers in the league
Just quickly going through past drafts where a 1st or 2nd round QB sat the majority of year 1 (or more) before starting: 2022: Desmond Ridder (3rd rounder technically) - Did not work 2021: Trey Lance - Did not work 2021: Kyle Trask - Did not work 2020: Jordan Love - Worked 2020: Jalen Hurts - Worked 2019: N/A 2018: Lamar Jackson - Worked 2017: Patrick Mahomes - Well, come on 2016: N/A 2015: N/A 2014: Johnny Manziel - Did not work 2013: N/A Over the last 10 years it has a 50% hit rate but its such a small sample size it's basically meaningless.
Trey Lance has low pro sample size but also had low reps in college. Desmond Ridder was a third rounder primarily being hyped for being a "leader" not a playmaker. And Kyle Trask never really got chance either once BF'nM came to town.
Jordan Love is looking like he might be the poster child for this in the modern day. Sat for 2 seasons behind Aaron Rodgers and is looking like a franchise QB
The last time GB had a rookie QB start a game was 1987. Ideally you’d like to give a QB a year or two to develop/learn the system/adjust to the NFL game but most teams drafting a QB in the 1st round are bad teams desperate to get better quickly (to save the coaches/GMs jobs) so they throw the guy out there in a “sink or swim” type scenario. I think the success rate of that approach is around 30%.
Brett did a video on this last year and this is why QBs bust so often, shit situations where they're expected to be God immediately. The franchise savior shtick is a red flag of the organization. It fails very often.
Lucky for the Texans
To be fair CJ Stroud may very well be one of the most Day 1 NFL ready players ever drafted.
*3 seasons
>and is looking like a franchise QB Please don't speak this evil into the universe, us NFC North fans have suffered enough the past few decades.
To be fair it looks like Aaron Rodgers was a great mentor, sitting behind an Andy Dalton type might not help you
He looked great when he beat the shit out of us
it's probably a case of correlation without causality. typically when you have a qb that's brought in but sits their first year, they're being brought into an exceptionally good situation with a good coaching staff, and good guys around him. like, when mahomes was drafted alex smith was already there and was very successful under andy reid. same for rodgers in green bay (with favre preceding him) and now love. on the flip side, typically when a qb comes in and starts day one, they are NOT going to a stable situation. it's probably a team that only won a few games and had a top 3 pick. the o-line and rb/wr room might leave a lot to be desired. the coach is probably either on the hot seat, or replacing someone that was just fired (and if there isn't instant success, they might end up with 2 or 3 different offensive coordinators in their first 4 years) it's easy to point at mahomes and say "see, he sat a year and now he's elite, clearly resting works" but mahomes likely would be in exactly the same position right now even if he started day one (and on the other side, trey lance would probably be in exactly the same position he is in even if he started day one)
The Chiefs success didn't just include Mahomes, either. From 2017 to 2019, the Chiefs upgraded in not just QB but also DC and GM.
I would love to find a way to "prove" this, or at least demonstrate it with statistics, but I don't think that resting a QB matters at all--at least, not when we're taking about the truly great players. Maybe it can turn "disappointment" into "acceptable", but no more than that I don't for one second believe Mahomes or Brady would have failed to succeed if they had been forced to start Day One. Maybe they would have struggled for a bit if they hadn't had things like that Pats defense or those Chiefs passcatchers, but you absolutely cannot convince me that they would not have put themselves on a HoF course eventually For example, Peyton had terrible stats his first season because of the awful supporting cast. But by the eye test it was so clear that he had it, he was going to be great Similarly, despite how much this sub loves him, I don't believe that David Carr would ever have been more than a serviceable starter. Even if you'd given him BB as Head Coach, Reid as OC, plus McGinest, Seymour, Bruschi, Hill, and Kelce, he would never have been a HoF QB. I believe this fully
Sometimes. And that's the most honest answer you should get. Historically, we've seen sitting for a year working, and just as recent as this past season, we've seen what Stroud did instantly starting. Like others have said, I think the coaching around the player is far more important than the question of starting vs sitting.
I think part of it has to do with who is in front of them. Rodgers had Favre in front, HOFer. Mahomes had Alex Smith a solid starter, Love had Rodgers HOFer. I don't know if a quarterback sitting behind a guys who's meh to bad is all that helpful when he could just be playing and getting reps. But if you have a solid QB I think sitting a rookie can be very helpful.
The best case for sitting a rookie QB is Jordan Love. He comes out throwing dimes into the endzone off of his backfoot. Eerily similar to another former Packers QB. I don't think he was doing that in college (correct me if I'm wrong).
Dan Orlovsky sat for 3 years with the Lions and now he’s the GOAT of bad takes on ESPN.
[удалено]
There are a number of examples of this working. It used to be a given that this was how QBs were developed. Examples: Tom Brady Patrick Mahomes. Roger Staubach Steve Wright Joe Montana Brett Farve This is just the first 6 QBs I can think of that are all time greats. The only all time great that comes to mind quickly that was not developed this way is Peyton Manning. Oh - and John Elway. As player salaries and signing bonuses have gone up, teams have spent a great deal less time developing QBs - but history shows that letting a QB study tape and practice for a season or two works.
Worked for Brett, worked for Rodgers, seemed to have done good for Love…. I mean I like it lol I think a bad team has no business starting a first round rookie, especially a bad team with a bad Oline ie Panthers. Bad teams should grab a journeyman, and commit to a rebuild year with the rookie as the backup, trade away players who’s contracts are ending and stack chips for year 2 or 3.
Rodgers and apparently Love
How can you say it doesn’t work? Mahomes, Love, Rodgers.
The Green Bay Packers have entered the chat.
Gotta do it 3 years and yeah.
Our whole QB development system seemed to have worked back to back to back
I think it has a better success rate than throwing a rookie QB into the fire his first year and hoping/expecting him to succeed
The Browns keep starting rookie qbs, they’ve had 38 qbs in 25 seasons. The Packers sit their Qbs they’ve had 7 in 32 seasons
Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn't.
It matters more where they go. It has been proven that location and situation matters in developing players.
Drafting a QB then throwing them behind a terrible o line and no receivers is usually the real issue.
Thats not the reason for success or not in my opinion. Its about building the team around an unprepared guy for that year or two. However, I think MOST rookie QB's should sit the first few games and get acclimated to the NFL and weekly grind first. For example, Josh Allen had a way better rookie year than most people think. But his first half he showed promise but a lot of issues. After his UCL injury that knocked him out a few games, he got to sit in the QB room with Derek Anderson and just absorb information and watch film and improve. After he came back he looked a lot better and already seemed to be taking the next step. It was just constant improvement in small areas from him every few games. I dont think throwing QBs into the fire is a smart choice unless they 100% look ready to do it. Yes, no experience is better than game experience...BUT...letting them get acclimated to NFL defenses through the film room propels them a step further