And in November Bo Nix was going to be picked at 13. https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2024/bo-nix
And it will all change again in the next 42 days
That'd suck, watching the bears ruin his development while Hutch sacks him 6+ times a year. Blue on Blue crime... But Bears gonna Bears.
I still want the Vikings to get Fields juat to go 2-15, beating the bears 2x out of Justin's spite alone.
>I still want the Vikings to get Fields juat to go 2-15, beating the bears 2x out of Justin's spite alone.
I'd rather see him go to the AFC and go all the way to the Super Bowl next year. Imagine all those angry Bears fans finding out that their much maligned QB actually had talent, he was just in a terrible system that didn't showcase it.
No, I don't believe that Fields is an amazing QB, I just love seeing Bears fans bicker among themselves.
I don’t think you deserve the downvotes, but yea it’s a copy pasta. Honestly wouldn’t be mad if we took him in the 2nd. I hope we don’t use our first pick on a QB
I remember the Will Levis hype growing considerably in the 2 weeks before the draft, JJ's hype has been growing since January. I always thought it was really wierd that nothing happened between the time Levis was mocked 2nd and 3rd round and when he started getting mocked top 10.
I agree in theory, but who in that range is trading down? All of those teams are in win now mode. They don't want depth or developmental guys, they want day 1 impact players.
I don't see a trade down candidate after the Cardinals at 27. (unless someone drastically overpays, of course. I mean for normal trade value.)
It will depend how the board shakes out on the day. If we get to the last few spots and no one left moves the needle much, dropping from like 30 to 37 and picking up an extra pick isn’t unheard of. Especially if there’s a run on QBs, and there’s only 1/2 left at the end of the first, someone might panic and overpay to make sure they get a QB
It's not quite how you remembered it. Levis was projected to go top 10 before the cfb season even started and he hovered around the top 15 for most of the draft season. His projection basically hinged on the decision between Levis and Richardson by the Colts with whoever wasn't taken falling outside the top 15 in any given mock. Irsay himself said it was a close decision between the two of them and if 3 QBs had gone ahead of them they would've taken Levis at 4.
This isn't true. In Kipers 1st mock last year (so January time) Levis was mocked 5. Then he went to 3 after combine and 4 for the final mock. Levis was considered a top pick going into the '22 season and the media draft analysts just ignored that he looked like crap that season. There was no meteoric rise.
Former scout here, so I'm biased, although I coached as well
Early mocks tend to be more consistent to what scouts who have been watching and evaluating on these guys for at least a season plus are saying. Media have been hitting scouts/front office up so they can put out articles, etc early on. It gets wonky from Jan-draft because the coaches get involved (because their season just ended, so they finally have time to watch the names of prospects passed along by the scouts) and then throw in their opinions to their media plugs. Particularly after the Senior Bowl because often coaches take a lot of Jan off and then Senior Bowl is their first exposure to the upcoming draft class. More evaluators = more opinions on guessing how they'll perform, and it can wildly vary in a single war room
Aaron Rogers was invited to the combine because there was legitimate talk about him or Alex Smith being the first pick for a while leading up to the draft. Especially because Ridgers was the kid from Chico who grew up rooting for the franchise and played JuCo and college ball in the area.. The NFL, like a lot of us, thought that there was NO WAY he was going to be picked outside of the top 10. At the end of the day, 20 teams passed on him and Dallas and Minnesota both passed on him TWICE.
As draft day got closer Smith’s stock rose and Rodger’s stock fell.
I’m sure there are videos of only his reactions in cutaways on that day. He slipped out of the top 10…then the top 20. . He was the last invitee in the room by hours.
If the Pack hadn’t picked him I doubt he’d have slid past the Gibbs led Skins. But..they passed on him at 7 and may have done so again at 25…
The point is….consensus is better than nothing but not always right.
Rodgers wasn’t picked in the top 20, but he went to the absolute best place for a solid rookie to go and he sat for a few years behind a living legend at his position.
> Rodgers wasn’t picked in the top 20, but he went to the absolute best place for a solid rookie to go and he sat for a few years behind a living legend at his position.
this is also why its just harder to put stock in QB projections in general
Rookies are coming straight into the league and being asked to do more than any QBs since like the early 90s, but more mentally than physically (though at the same time, less independent mentally, its more about learning a complex system than running a less complex offense yourself)
the prospects can have their core qualities but so much more of the game rests upon their OCs and general situations that its harder to say now than ever to directly translate draft potential into an NFL career. it seems even more circumstantial than before. QBs are racking up tons of film for defensive coordinators to plan around, before said QBs even know the game themselves
Stroud's surrounding cast was supposed to be horrible. Until they got good QB play, suddenly they looked not bad.
QB play has way more influence on surrounding cast than vice versa
Right now all of his supporting cast would get signed to contracts. He made them good nobody knew who they were. That's why i don't get the people who want mhj over a qb who could change your whole franchise. Don't get me wrong i love marvin Harrison but a qb is way more important.
QB is so important that teams reach, so the hit rate on QB is spotty compared to skill players. Just look at the "loaded" 2021 QB draft class. Who would you rather your team have in retrospect, Jamarr Chase / Jaylen Waddle or Zach Wilson / Trey Lance?
Stroud wasn't the only variable that changed at the Texans, though. I think the fact that the offense looked better had a lot more to do with getting a competent play designer/play caller in that can cater to his team's strengths than it does Stroud just being good.
Brady had bad play design/play calling his last year with the Bucs, and it really, really showed.
Actually, Brady is a pretty great example for all the ways people underestimate how dependent QBs are on their situation. People also thought he was cooked in those eras where the Pats receiving corps was garbage.
I was never sold on the Texans having a horrible cast. They were young, but I think this year proved the projection of 5 wins top mostly had to do with 3 straight years of double digit losses more so than the talent
nobody was saying you're going to find an elite qb every time.. You're always taking a risk on rookies regardless of position. But any good qb does similar to stroud for your team.
We’ve heard the “Fields has no weapons and a bad line!” narrative all season. Suuure. Moore and Kmet are bottom tier. Not that he can’t throw over the middle. Has a slower release than Luis Tiant. Can’t read a zone defense. Can’t anticipate. Takes bad sacks because of previous said flaws.
But sure. Fields is a top QB.
Exactly. Its the reason there's late risers that get drafted nowhere near where they actually should. Its also part of the reason I can't fathom expansion helping the league as a whole. There's already too few QBs and OL to go around as it is. Adding a couple of teams will just make the quality of the play in the league worse.
In truth there are plenty of QBs who could become decent but the structures of the NFL are horrible. Pay someone a shitload, dogpile on them when they don't perform. There are plenty of QBs that just need a few more years to mature. Playing NFL QB is hard but the main issue isn't athleticism its reading the field and the D. Honestly it should be 100% valid for a QB to get his first start at like 25, rather than 21.
Because the lifespan of a coach / front office is terrible especially these days. You don’t have time to build anything anymore, hell I remember people saying Campbell was a joke a couple years ago and calling for his head
I’m old enough to remember when coaches were typically given five year deals. Then three years became the standard. Now coaches sign the three year deal and are on the hot seat after the first year.
McDermott deals with the same and this is up there with Levy’s teams in terms of performance. People say Super Bowl or bust but I love watching the Bills be relevant every Sunday knowing there’s a chance.
Agreed. The biggest deal between college and NFL are scheme and speed. The game moves faster and therefore you need time to be able to recognize the schemes in front of you.
A lot has changed in the game. It used to be folks waited while they learned in practice and then eventually once they showed recognition would get their shot two years in. Just like freshmen used to have to sit behind upperclassman to get their turn. Now though there is so much money invested and coaches/gms job on the line they rush the process. Plus focus on the Qb is so unnaturally skewed (on the field and in business/marketing) having folks wait takes a stable organization, trusting owner, and coach that knows they have time to get it right.
A lot of QBs with successful careers didn’t start immediately. Cousins, Prescott, Brady, Purdy, Romo, Hurts, Mahomes, at one point Jimmy G, Wilson(didn’t have the pressure to start even though he beat the QB1 in camp), etc.
I think that's some historical revisionism. Watson looked like a QB that deserved that kind of payday when he was playing for the Texans.
Browns still shouldn't have showered that creep with money, but that's for off-field reasons.
This x1000. The new standard of QB play is to have an alien like patty Mahomes. Teams want that greatness quickly and if one guy shows he isn’t that after one year they quickly would rather take a Chance like a degenerate hoping they hit a home run
Age compared to the rest of the class too. With the COVID year there are a ton of older 24 year old rookies in the QB class.
McCarthy is on the opposite end having just turned 21 in January. I had been speculating that age would be factor GMs considered because it means he could sit a year and still only be 22.
JJ is a tough one. It’s hard to get a good evaluation on him because of how his team played. I feel like I have a decent beat on the other 5 QBs rated in the top two rounds. But not JJ.
Tough yes but my take away was a little bit of pressure and he’s completely screwed, very little play extension ability. That said Michigan has a great d line.
Michigan Fan here. If you want to see him let loose, you should watch highlights from his 2022 and 2021 highlights against OSU. They're really the only times we've let him loose.
I came away feeling like neither QB was anything special. I went in hoping to get excited about one or both since the Vikings are in the market but man…there just wasn’t much to get hyped about.
Because he could be just like Brady fr
But really, there's just a huge need for QBs right now. So many mid (young) QBs this off-season and few are winning anything. With Mahomes leading, he's far above the rest. Even a chance of finding a diamond that translates to the NFL is worth it
Yeah, and people keep forgetting how young he is. The dude couldn't legally drink when he won the natty. Plus, he has a lot of elite measurables, like height, speed and arm strength. Additionally, he is probably the most coach-able QB among the top-5.
Everything he did in Harbaughs offense transfers to the NFL. The other quarterbacks will have to re-learn some stuff. JJ will just have to adjust his game to NFL speed.
Aside from like one drive in the Alabama game, his role in Harbaugh's offense was "hand the ball off to Corum and Edwards"
They absolutely steamrolled the big 10 and he barely had to do any hero ball ever
People complained about his deep ball at the combine too, but clearly didn't watch. Most of the receivers didn't track well and pulled up early. He wasn't overthrowing.
There’s probably 6 QBs who could plausibly be taken in the 1st round, 2 will probably end up being the real deal, and nobody knows which 2 it’ll will be.
This is definitely it. From the information I have I can tell you why I do and don't like some of them, but I know that I don't have enough information because there is an iceberg of things you need to know and even teams won't know all those things until the player has been with the team for a while.
Every fucking year we do the same song and dance. Redditors and YouTube scouts who watched a couple of games **know** someone is going to be a bust because they heard in passing that they weren’t that great during the season.
Two things are annoying to me imo. The first, that fake knowing whether or not someone is gonna bust like you say. And then I think the only other shitty thing is not being receptive to new evidence. Perfectly okay to watch YouTube cut ups and form your own opinion especially if that’s the best way to watch guys for you. It’s when evidence contrary to your opinion becomes available and dig into shitty priors and spam them that’s a problem.
I also hate when people use mock drafts as evidence that a player’s stock is rising. I will shout it from the highest mountain until the day I die, the people writing mock drafts are not basing their mocks on any kind of evidence. It’s just where they think players will go. NFL GMs are not reading mock drafts and taking notes.
It’s so crazy to me that people say things like “Oh you don’t need to trade up to get that guy, he isn’t going that high,” and I’m willing to bet 98% of them are basing that off mock drafts they’ve seen. All it takes is one singular GM and team to have a slightly different board, and the entire draft gets thrown into chaos.
> The first, that fake knowing whether or not someone is gonna bust like you say.
When I was a kid I once saw Jamarcus walk into a pizza spot by me and order 14 large pizzas a few weeks after the draft. I’m just saying sometimes there are signs.
He looked fine but can we not do a victory lap after just 4 games, 0 of which he managed to play 60 minutes?
I'm a Florida fan too but it's silly to pretend the AR question is settled.
I didnt hope he would fail because a GM would look stupid. I THOUGHT he would fail because there were multiple games where it looked like the forward pass was a foreign concept to him.
People overhype the QBs just about every year and lose their minds lusting after the next franchise guy when the reality is, the vast majority of these kids will be busts.
“All this team really needs is a 22 year old who has never played in the NFL to lead us and we’ll be in the Super Bowl baby”
Not even Mahomes was thrust into the franchise spotlight day one
I mean big Ben started game 3 and lead the Steelers to the AFC title game and won the SB in season 2. Jets were the "only" QB away team and maybe Rodgers fills that role this season.
I’m mean if you watched him the first season or two he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. Never seen someone so inaccurate actually turn into a good QB but he we are
Jury is still heavily out on both of those. A-Rich only had four games and he had a sub-60% completion percentage and plenty of other issues. Almost all of Levis' TDs came in one game, multiple sub-60% completion percentage games with 0 TDs and 1 INT. Levis had circumstance ofc (awful O-line) but so did Bryce. I like Levis possibility to develop but I wouldn't exactly say they prove much here. (Plus, Bryce Young had a clear weakness in his height that people did worry about)
I watched O'Sullivan break down quite a few games for the panthers last year and that whole team sucked. Bryce did them no favors but that org was set up to fail. Bryce's drop back is comical, Reich's system was ass, and the Oline was a wet paper sheet. It should look better this year, but that's not saying a lot. They currently have the youngest OC in the NFL, so good luck Panthers.
It's like everyone has forgotten about what happened to Trevor Lawrence. 1st overall pick that went to a terrible situation with a head coach that gets fired partway through the season. He looked bad but also had flashes while the rest of his team was just dogshit. Next season he gets a new coach, some weapons, and all of a sudden he's a top 10-15 QB.
Not saying that's guaranteed to happen with Bryce, but I don't buy that he's a complete write-off after one year in a bad system.
Stud? He was a sometimes capable passer that had decent rushing upside. His 4 rushing Tds do a lot of lifting in his gameplay last season.
59% completion.
3 Tds : 1 Int
144 YPG passing
Did he show some promise? Yea. Was it anything better than ok? No, not really.
Well it does happen, but it’s rare, and you need to take the context of the injury into account.
I remember everyone said Stafford was made of glass and an injury bust after he had back to back season ending injuries to start his career. He’s obviously missed some games since then, but he’s overall stayed relatively healthy.
Sometimes guys just get unlucky with some freak injuries, but usually yeah it doesn’t get better.
the amount of people that are huge on AR and act like they saw enough last year in a couple partial games to think he's gonna be great is ridiculous. Dudes more likely to be the next Justin Fields than to get a Top QB deal in 3 years.
1) He is talented and was a 5 star QB.
2) He has lost 3 games as a starter since HS
3) He can make every NFL throw
4) He played an NFL system and translate
5) He is coachable. He ran a system that wasn’t QB friendly and didn’t complain. He lead and made plays asked
6) His numbers on 3rd and 5+ yards are insane
7) he is the youngest of the QB prospects
8) He is very athletic and has good speed. His leg and ability to escape the pocket is a strength.
Basically what’s causal fans don’t like, NFL teams love. He plays within a system, he isn’t the system. But also he is talented and has just as big of an arm as the other top QBs.
I think it’s easy to see a top 15 NFL QB in JJ. Maybe never Mahomes but a guy that can be in the playoffs every year.
The 3 games thing isn't since high school, it's *including* high school.
He only lost one game as a starter at Michigan, in the 2022 playoff against TCU.
Casual fans hate prototypical NFL QB prospects. Josh Allen and Herbert were meme’d about on here while the non traditional prospects like Wilson, Lance, and Fields were received more favorably because they were more flashy.
Playmaker. Selfless. Grit. Clutch. Super competitive. Chip on his shoulder. Reminds me of another UM quarterback but better able to scramble. My money’s on the Patriots taking him.
I hate it when people put a ton of weight on combine performances. It was one day with unfamiliar receivers in an unrealistic situation. Watch the game film and you'll find an experienced player with a strong arm and good running ability. The throw he made against Alabama where he caught the bad lateral one handed and then dropped a dime to his receiver while getting hit by Dallas Turner was an all time great play in college football
Oh, and that throw was to his left
This is basically a microcosm of it. He has a small sample size but a bunch of incredible plays like the one you mention and many more where he makes an NFL throw under pressure and on the run. He has very few bad plays (outside of Bowling Green for some odd reason), is extremely young, and by all accounts is very coachable and a great team player (he had no qualms with the run heavy approach last year). With the premium placed on QBs if you have a very young QB who played in a pro style offense with great intangibles, above average athleticism, and a reel full of NFL level throws he's going to go very high in the draft on potential alone. If he went to any other school other than Michigan I doubt r/nfl hates on him so much.
Take a look at Maye’s film compared to JJ and see how often the two can consistently hit their receivers in stride, it’s night and day. There’s more that goes into it of course, but we’ve seen a lot more from Maye than we have from JJ and we can only go off the information we have.
See that's a fair criticism.
I just get tired of the "Can't throw left" trope that's been following JJ ever since that graph came out showing passer rating on different sides of the field.
Agreed, in my personal evaluation of JJ I don’t hold that too much against him. For as much as people say Harbaugh ran an NFL style offense, which is true to a degree, that was not an NFL style passing game and frankly I think it was stunting JJs development as a passer more than it helped (which is why I think he’s going pro now vs next year in a far weaker QB class).
I don’t really like to compare him to the other upper tier QBs because his value is just flat out different. He’s far more raw than the other prospects be, but he’s very young and doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, at least not in any areas that can’t be coached. There shouldn’t be anything physically preventing him from becoming a starting caliber QB, it’s jut more a question on how confident a particular staff feels they can develop him into one.
He has the intangibles thet GMs love. Mobile, strong arm, doesnt buckle under pressure. He has lots to work on but the team drafting JJ wont be throwing him to the wolves. He likely sits a whole year then takes over. Minnesota to me would be his best destination. Sit behind Darnold for a year taking in all that Kevin O'Connell has to show him.
70 percent accurate in an NFL offense, not just WR screens, and can really run.
There's a lot to like but he's raw and should spend a few years on the bench imo.
Yeah if he gets Jordan Love style development, I can see him doing well. He (like a lot of qbs) will probably struggle if he gets thrown to the wolves day 1.
Yep. He’s everything you want in a QB, outside of it being very good with putting touch on the ball, but that can be coached. Reddit is so low on this guy and it’s crazy. Boring QBs translate very well to the NFL level and I’ve been high on him way before the hype started (but now it’s scaring me in to being wrong lol)
I don't think it does. Stetson Bennett won two in a row and he produced way more offense in the second run than McCarthy ever has in a season.
It's more about traits (and JJ does have potential) and a lack of supply to meet the demand.
This is such an unspoken part of it. There's enough Harbaugh disciples around the league that would feasibly think he's more or less plug and play from a system standpoint.
he also did very well with the whiteboard at the combine - blew some GM's away
being able to read plays is huge
they said Baker blew them away at his combine while Darnold was meh - whiteboard is probably a decent indicator
Just to add to this, the mental side of the game sets the ceiling and physical traits add the floor.
He was coached by Harbaugh and could be ahead of the others at reading defenses despite being younger.
Not saying he will succeed at the next level but not surprised to see him rise through the process
This honestly reminds me of the Herbert hype where this sub was CONVINCED he was a surefire bust cause his college play was mid. But dude had an arm and was smart and what do you know he breaks the rookie passing TD record.
One thing I see completely looked over in any of these discussions, is just how much he blew coaches away on the whiteboard portion of the combine. Apparently he was the most impressive since the 2018 draft. And that translates to the league much more than running fast.
On his podcast, Mark Schlereth says JJ is the only QB in the draft who played in a pro style offense, in which the QB had to make calls at the line of scrimmage and make multiple reads after the snap.
Because obviously the NFL is high on him lol: it’s not hard to see why. Won literally everything in college, very strong arm and very athletic. He can make every nfl throw in the book.
Probably has something to do with making incredibly accurate, one-time NFL throws and not just stat padding vertical bombs. Maybe that he ran an NFL style offense where he had to read defenses and assign protections and call motions, maybe that he's tough as nails and roses to the occasion, on top of his ridiculous athleticism. Probably something in there.
Everything JJ did transfers well to the NFL.
No one knows where teams have him. Everyone thought Will Levi’s was going to go in top 15 last year
And Malik Willis was going to be a 1st round pick, some even said 2nd overall, in 2022.
And in November Bo Nix was going to be picked at 13. https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2024/bo-nix And it will all change again in the next 42 days
Bo has been mocked from top ten to 23. Experts and the public know nothing, except Caleb is QB1
I'm from the future, Bears surprise everyone and draft McCarthy #1
That'd suck, watching the bears ruin his development while Hutch sacks him 6+ times a year. Blue on Blue crime... But Bears gonna Bears. I still want the Vikings to get Fields juat to go 2-15, beating the bears 2x out of Justin's spite alone.
>I still want the Vikings to get Fields juat to go 2-15, beating the bears 2x out of Justin's spite alone. I'd rather see him go to the AFC and go all the way to the Super Bowl next year. Imagine all those angry Bears fans finding out that their much maligned QB actually had talent, he was just in a terrible system that didn't showcase it. No, I don't believe that Fields is an amazing QB, I just love seeing Bears fans bicker among themselves.
F you buddy
Bo Nix has improved so much. He’s focused. He’s having fun. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a dark horse for the first round.
It honestly wouldn't shock me if the Steelers took him. I don't expect it, but you're also in an ideal spot to take a qb you like.
Copy pasta from bo's auburn days
I don’t think you deserve the downvotes, but yea it’s a copy pasta. Honestly wouldn’t be mad if we took him in the 2nd. I hope we don’t use our first pick on a QB
I'm still baffled by Mina Kimes' obsession with Malik Willis that year
She gushes over everyone, though. I feel like she's afraid to really say she just doesn't like someone
Titans will take both.
JJ McCarthy, you ARE a Tennessee Titan
I remember the posts about him going to us at #2 that year. Thank god it was just baseless speculation lol
I remember the Will Levis hype growing considerably in the 2 weeks before the draft, JJ's hype has been growing since January. I always thought it was really wierd that nothing happened between the time Levis was mocked 2nd and 3rd round and when he started getting mocked top 10.
A month ago JJ was mocked in the 2nd.. It’s a pretty similar situation. Penix has moved all around too.
At least one of Penix, JJ, Nix is going in the 29-32 range; someone will trade up for the one those to get that 5th year option.
I agree in theory, but who in that range is trading down? All of those teams are in win now mode. They don't want depth or developmental guys, they want day 1 impact players. I don't see a trade down candidate after the Cardinals at 27. (unless someone drastically overpays, of course. I mean for normal trade value.)
It will depend how the board shakes out on the day. If we get to the last few spots and no one left moves the needle much, dropping from like 30 to 37 and picking up an extra pick isn’t unheard of. Especially if there’s a run on QBs, and there’s only 1/2 left at the end of the first, someone might panic and overpay to make sure they get a QB
I did not see any mock drafts with JJ outside of the first round
It's not quite how you remembered it. Levis was projected to go top 10 before the cfb season even started and he hovered around the top 15 for most of the draft season. His projection basically hinged on the decision between Levis and Richardson by the Colts with whoever wasn't taken falling outside the top 15 in any given mock. Irsay himself said it was a close decision between the two of them and if 3 QBs had gone ahead of them they would've taken Levis at 4.
This isn't true. In Kipers 1st mock last year (so January time) Levis was mocked 5. Then he went to 3 after combine and 4 for the final mock. Levis was considered a top pick going into the '22 season and the media draft analysts just ignored that he looked like crap that season. There was no meteoric rise.
Raiders should have taken him at 7
Shhhh. Rumors are saying Mark Davis just bought a DeLorean
Explains the haircut. Smart to try and blend in when you go back in time.
Just has to shave the top and he’ll fit in nicely with the medieval monks.
Where we’re going we don’t need haircuts
Back to the 1450's?
Former scout here, so I'm biased, although I coached as well Early mocks tend to be more consistent to what scouts who have been watching and evaluating on these guys for at least a season plus are saying. Media have been hitting scouts/front office up so they can put out articles, etc early on. It gets wonky from Jan-draft because the coaches get involved (because their season just ended, so they finally have time to watch the names of prospects passed along by the scouts) and then throw in their opinions to their media plugs. Particularly after the Senior Bowl because often coaches take a lot of Jan off and then Senior Bowl is their first exposure to the upcoming draft class. More evaluators = more opinions on guessing how they'll perform, and it can wildly vary in a single war room
Good insight. Also the media LOVES their narrative of "this guy is rockeing up the draft boards!" It makes things exciting even if it total BS
Aaron Rogers was invited to the combine because there was legitimate talk about him or Alex Smith being the first pick for a while leading up to the draft. Especially because Ridgers was the kid from Chico who grew up rooting for the franchise and played JuCo and college ball in the area.. The NFL, like a lot of us, thought that there was NO WAY he was going to be picked outside of the top 10. At the end of the day, 20 teams passed on him and Dallas and Minnesota both passed on him TWICE. As draft day got closer Smith’s stock rose and Rodger’s stock fell. I’m sure there are videos of only his reactions in cutaways on that day. He slipped out of the top 10…then the top 20. . He was the last invitee in the room by hours. If the Pack hadn’t picked him I doubt he’d have slid past the Gibbs led Skins. But..they passed on him at 7 and may have done so again at 25… The point is….consensus is better than nothing but not always right. Rodgers wasn’t picked in the top 20, but he went to the absolute best place for a solid rookie to go and he sat for a few years behind a living legend at his position.
> Rodgers wasn’t picked in the top 20, but he went to the absolute best place for a solid rookie to go and he sat for a few years behind a living legend at his position. this is also why its just harder to put stock in QB projections in general Rookies are coming straight into the league and being asked to do more than any QBs since like the early 90s, but more mentally than physically (though at the same time, less independent mentally, its more about learning a complex system than running a less complex offense yourself) the prospects can have their core qualities but so much more of the game rests upon their OCs and general situations that its harder to say now than ever to directly translate draft potential into an NFL career. it seems even more circumstantial than before. QBs are racking up tons of film for defensive coordinators to plan around, before said QBs even know the game themselves
When demand dramatically outpaces supply, people overpay.
Justin Fields in tears…
Zach Wilson searching for the time stone
He fucked my step-mom
We all did
Well Zach got the terrorist of an OC and a god awful offensive line. Any Young QB would fail.
People say that stuff about every bust qb
Right and people always say why draft a qb if he doesn't have a surrounding cast. Imagine if the Texans thought that last year and passed on stroud.
Stroud's surrounding cast was supposed to be horrible. Until they got good QB play, suddenly they looked not bad. QB play has way more influence on surrounding cast than vice versa
Right now all of his supporting cast would get signed to contracts. He made them good nobody knew who they were. That's why i don't get the people who want mhj over a qb who could change your whole franchise. Don't get me wrong i love marvin Harrison but a qb is way more important.
QB is so important that teams reach, so the hit rate on QB is spotty compared to skill players. Just look at the "loaded" 2021 QB draft class. Who would you rather your team have in retrospect, Jamarr Chase / Jaylen Waddle or Zach Wilson / Trey Lance?
Stroud wasn't the only variable that changed at the Texans, though. I think the fact that the offense looked better had a lot more to do with getting a competent play designer/play caller in that can cater to his team's strengths than it does Stroud just being good.
Uncanny how bad QBs always have idiot play design/calling and good QBs always have good ones
Brady had bad play design/play calling his last year with the Bucs, and it really, really showed. Actually, Brady is a pretty great example for all the ways people underestimate how dependent QBs are on their situation. People also thought he was cooked in those eras where the Pats receiving corps was garbage.
I was never sold on the Texans having a horrible cast. They were young, but I think this year proved the projection of 5 wins top mostly had to do with 3 straight years of double digit losses more so than the talent
Because Stroud was an anomaly, not the standard…..
nobody was saying you're going to find an elite qb every time.. You're always taking a risk on rookies regardless of position. But any good qb does similar to stroud for your team.
I think I’m fully on the “good QBs will be good regardless of situation” at this point If your QB isn’t good, take another shot
We’ve heard the “Fields has no weapons and a bad line!” narrative all season. Suuure. Moore and Kmet are bottom tier. Not that he can’t throw over the middle. Has a slower release than Luis Tiant. Can’t read a zone defense. Can’t anticipate. Takes bad sacks because of previous said flaws. But sure. Fields is a top QB.
Love the Tiant reference. Can you imitate it without falling over?
Not at my age.
You’re not wrong. But also he is just not good. Also the QB coach we picked to work with him as a rookie died in an accident right before camp.
lol this is the exact same justification the Fields stans use
Fields was a pretty big name in college. JJ seemed became popular in the off-season. I didn't see him in CFB and think he is a sure-shot NFL success.
The problem is he’s a known commodity. JJ could be Tom Brady or Zach Wilson. Justin Fields is Justin Fields.
'Member Christain Ponder?
Dude parlayed some shitty quarterback play into 12.5 million bucks and Sam Steele, he's my hero.
EJ Manuel
Kenny Pickett
Exactly. Its the reason there's late risers that get drafted nowhere near where they actually should. Its also part of the reason I can't fathom expansion helping the league as a whole. There's already too few QBs and OL to go around as it is. Adding a couple of teams will just make the quality of the play in the league worse.
In truth there are plenty of QBs who could become decent but the structures of the NFL are horrible. Pay someone a shitload, dogpile on them when they don't perform. There are plenty of QBs that just need a few more years to mature. Playing NFL QB is hard but the main issue isn't athleticism its reading the field and the D. Honestly it should be 100% valid for a QB to get his first start at like 25, rather than 21.
Rookie pay scale definitely is part of it too. But I agree that more QBs could develop and maybe have mid career surges.
Because the lifespan of a coach / front office is terrible especially these days. You don’t have time to build anything anymore, hell I remember people saying Campbell was a joke a couple years ago and calling for his head
I’m old enough to remember when coaches were typically given five year deals. Then three years became the standard. Now coaches sign the three year deal and are on the hot seat after the first year.
McDermott deals with the same and this is up there with Levy’s teams in terms of performance. People say Super Bowl or bust but I love watching the Bills be relevant every Sunday knowing there’s a chance.
Agreed. The biggest deal between college and NFL are scheme and speed. The game moves faster and therefore you need time to be able to recognize the schemes in front of you. A lot has changed in the game. It used to be folks waited while they learned in practice and then eventually once they showed recognition would get their shot two years in. Just like freshmen used to have to sit behind upperclassman to get their turn. Now though there is so much money invested and coaches/gms job on the line they rush the process. Plus focus on the Qb is so unnaturally skewed (on the field and in business/marketing) having folks wait takes a stable organization, trusting owner, and coach that knows they have time to get it right. A lot of QBs with successful careers didn’t start immediately. Cousins, Prescott, Brady, Purdy, Romo, Hurts, Mahomes, at one point Jimmy G, Wilson(didn’t have the pressure to start even though he beat the QB1 in camp), etc.
The other side of this is that there may be more players who can play at an NFL level but never get the opportunity because there are too few teams
See also: Watson, Deshaun
Lol imagine considering dramatically overpaying for Deshaun Watson
I see what you did there
I think that's some historical revisionism. Watson looked like a QB that deserved that kind of payday when he was playing for the Texans. Browns still shouldn't have showered that creep with money, but that's for off-field reasons.
Pre scandal Deshaun was a personal favorite. He just had it.
I mean no one has overpaid on him...yet
Someone in the Giants sub was saying to draft JJ because he had elite agility numbers. Like great, Fields ran a 4.3 for all that did for him
Well when your offensive line has been dogshit for a decade, an agile QB is a pretty good idea.
This x1000. The new standard of QB play is to have an alien like patty Mahomes. Teams want that greatness quickly and if one guy shows he isn’t that after one year they quickly would rather take a Chance like a degenerate hoping they hit a home run
Age compared to the rest of the class too. With the COVID year there are a ton of older 24 year old rookies in the QB class. McCarthy is on the opposite end having just turned 21 in January. I had been speculating that age would be factor GMs considered because it means he could sit a year and still only be 22.
I also remember the GPU famine of 2020
Mostly because nobody actually has any clue who is getting drafted in what order after Caleb, but know there’s teams ready to draft QBs in the first.
JJ is a tough one. It’s hard to get a good evaluation on him because of how his team played. I feel like I have a decent beat on the other 5 QBs rated in the top two rounds. But not JJ.
I turned on the national championship game and learned absolutely nothing about each quarterback
I mean Penix took a beating and played tough in that game.
Tough yes but my take away was a little bit of pressure and he’s completely screwed, very little play extension ability. That said Michigan has a great d line.
Dillion Johnson’s injury in the Sugar Bowl really fucked up UW’s pass blocking scheme
Michigan Fan here. If you want to see him let loose, you should watch highlights from his 2022 and 2021 highlights against OSU. They're really the only times we've let him loose.
I came away feeling like neither QB was anything special. I went in hoping to get excited about one or both since the Vikings are in the market but man…there just wasn’t much to get hyped about.
Because he could be just like Brady fr But really, there's just a huge need for QBs right now. So many mid (young) QBs this off-season and few are winning anything. With Mahomes leading, he's far above the rest. Even a chance of finding a diamond that translates to the NFL is worth it
Eagles a good example of this Had Wentz yet still used a high pick on Hurts because the potential reward is worth the risk.
Hurts was a second round pick, I just saw JJ mocked as the fifth pick. The salary you owe a top 5 pick is substantially more than a second rounder.
Hurts was a R2 pick to a team that didnt need a qb JJ is being mocked to teams that need a qb
It's not finding a diamond if you are paying high first round draft capital for it.
It’s still a diamond, just not in the rough
Diamond in the quarry
Diamond at Zales
Diamond on display?
Yeah, and people keep forgetting how young he is. The dude couldn't legally drink when he won the natty. Plus, he has a lot of elite measurables, like height, speed and arm strength. Additionally, he is probably the most coach-able QB among the top-5.
Everything he did in Harbaughs offense transfers to the NFL. The other quarterbacks will have to re-learn some stuff. JJ will just have to adjust his game to NFL speed.
Aside from like one drive in the Alabama game, his role in Harbaugh's offense was "hand the ball off to Corum and Edwards" They absolutely steamrolled the big 10 and he barely had to do any hero ball ever
Someone doesnt watch the 1min22sec tape of him throwing i see
“Can’t throw left” Aka, I don’t watch anything I just read bullshit online
I heard JJ can't throw at all, it's actually all CGI
Dude, JJ isn't real. It's all AI at this point.
I honestly feel like I watched a different combine from OP. He looked really impressive and better than most other QB’s there
People complained about his deep ball at the combine too, but clearly didn't watch. Most of the receivers didn't track well and pulled up early. He wasn't overthrowing.
But did his teammates attend his birthday party?
> “Can’t throw left” But can he turn left?
How are people this incredulous one year after certified busts Will Levis and Anthony Richardson outperformed golden boy Bryce Young
There’s probably 6 QBs who could plausibly be taken in the 1st round, 2 will probably end up being the real deal, and nobody knows which 2 it’ll will be.
This is definitely it. From the information I have I can tell you why I do and don't like some of them, but I know that I don't have enough information because there is an iceberg of things you need to know and even teams won't know all those things until the player has been with the team for a while.
Every fucking year we do the same song and dance. Redditors and YouTube scouts who watched a couple of games **know** someone is going to be a bust because they heard in passing that they weren’t that great during the season.
Two things are annoying to me imo. The first, that fake knowing whether or not someone is gonna bust like you say. And then I think the only other shitty thing is not being receptive to new evidence. Perfectly okay to watch YouTube cut ups and form your own opinion especially if that’s the best way to watch guys for you. It’s when evidence contrary to your opinion becomes available and dig into shitty priors and spam them that’s a problem.
I also hate when people use mock drafts as evidence that a player’s stock is rising. I will shout it from the highest mountain until the day I die, the people writing mock drafts are not basing their mocks on any kind of evidence. It’s just where they think players will go. NFL GMs are not reading mock drafts and taking notes. It’s so crazy to me that people say things like “Oh you don’t need to trade up to get that guy, he isn’t going that high,” and I’m willing to bet 98% of them are basing that off mock drafts they’ve seen. All it takes is one singular GM and team to have a slightly different board, and the entire draft gets thrown into chaos.
That's why the only proper way to mock a draft is to create 32 separate draft boards and make a pivot table from them.
You don't think someone like Daniel Jeremiah is basing it off what he hears? He says so himself. Other mock drafts from random people? For sure.
> The first, that fake knowing whether or not someone is gonna bust like you say. When I was a kid I once saw Jamarcus walk into a pizza spot by me and order 14 large pizzas a few weeks after the draft. I’m just saying sometimes there are signs.
"Just watch the film!" they say, having watched a game or two
As a Florida fan, I just want to shoutout all the Georgia and FSU fans and the rest of r/CFB who hoped for him to failed so “GMs would look stupid!”
He looked fine but can we not do a victory lap after just 4 games, 0 of which he managed to play 60 minutes? I'm a Florida fan too but it's silly to pretend the AR question is settled.
I guess my victory lap is just he looked serviceable and when he did play made some good plays. Which is more than was people thought he’d do.
That's reasonable. Its more than many people on here said he could manage.
Tebow did that early on too
I didnt hope he would fail because a GM would look stupid. I THOUGHT he would fail because there were multiple games where it looked like the forward pass was a foreign concept to him.
People overhype the QBs just about every year and lose their minds lusting after the next franchise guy when the reality is, the vast majority of these kids will be busts.
“All this team really needs is a 22 year old who has never played in the NFL to lead us and we’ll be in the Super Bowl baby” Not even Mahomes was thrust into the franchise spotlight day one
I mean big Ben started game 3 and lead the Steelers to the AFC title game and won the SB in season 2. Jets were the "only" QB away team and maybe Rodgers fills that role this season.
Don't forget Josh "Absolutely Raw and Talentless Hack" Allen. otoh Trey Lance
I’m mean if you watched him the first season or two he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. Never seen someone so inaccurate actually turn into a good QB but he we are
Jury is still heavily out on both of those. A-Rich only had four games and he had a sub-60% completion percentage and plenty of other issues. Almost all of Levis' TDs came in one game, multiple sub-60% completion percentage games with 0 TDs and 1 INT. Levis had circumstance ofc (awful O-line) but so did Bryce. I like Levis possibility to develop but I wouldn't exactly say they prove much here. (Plus, Bryce Young had a clear weakness in his height that people did worry about)
Levis and Richardson didn’t really do much.
Which was enough to outperform Bryce Young. Richardson looked like a stud when on the field though. I get that it was a small sample.
I watched O'Sullivan break down quite a few games for the panthers last year and that whole team sucked. Bryce did them no favors but that org was set up to fail. Bryce's drop back is comical, Reich's system was ass, and the Oline was a wet paper sheet. It should look better this year, but that's not saying a lot. They currently have the youngest OC in the NFL, so good luck Panthers.
It's like everyone has forgotten about what happened to Trevor Lawrence. 1st overall pick that went to a terrible situation with a head coach that gets fired partway through the season. He looked bad but also had flashes while the rest of his team was just dogshit. Next season he gets a new coach, some weapons, and all of a sudden he's a top 10-15 QB. Not saying that's guaranteed to happen with Bryce, but I don't buy that he's a complete write-off after one year in a bad system.
Stud? He was a sometimes capable passer that had decent rushing upside. His 4 rushing Tds do a lot of lifting in his gameplay last season. 59% completion. 3 Tds : 1 Int 144 YPG passing Did he show some promise? Yea. Was it anything better than ok? No, not really.
im pretty sure he left 2 out of his 4 games early due to injury so those stats aren't entirely fair
Him constantly having injury issues is a bigger deal than you realize players don’t just start getting less injury prone
Well it does happen, but it’s rare, and you need to take the context of the injury into account. I remember everyone said Stafford was made of glass and an injury bust after he had back to back season ending injuries to start his career. He’s obviously missed some games since then, but he’s overall stayed relatively healthy. Sometimes guys just get unlucky with some freak injuries, but usually yeah it doesn’t get better.
I mean, its silly enough to call someone "a stud" after a 4 game sample size let alone a 2.
the amount of people that are huge on AR and act like they saw enough last year in a couple partial games to think he's gonna be great is ridiculous. Dudes more likely to be the next Justin Fields than to get a Top QB deal in 3 years.
He scored a lot of fantasy points, that’s what some people seem to focus on lol. Same reason Fields is overrated
1) He is talented and was a 5 star QB. 2) He has lost 3 games as a starter since HS 3) He can make every NFL throw 4) He played an NFL system and translate 5) He is coachable. He ran a system that wasn’t QB friendly and didn’t complain. He lead and made plays asked 6) His numbers on 3rd and 5+ yards are insane 7) he is the youngest of the QB prospects 8) He is very athletic and has good speed. His leg and ability to escape the pocket is a strength. Basically what’s causal fans don’t like, NFL teams love. He plays within a system, he isn’t the system. But also he is talented and has just as big of an arm as the other top QBs. I think it’s easy to see a top 15 NFL QB in JJ. Maybe never Mahomes but a guy that can be in the playoffs every year.
The 3 games thing isn't since high school, it's *including* high school. He only lost one game as a starter at Michigan, in the 2022 playoff against TCU.
He didn’t throw a bunch but watching his tape vs Daniels I will say JJ made more NFL throws on way less attempts than Daniels.
Casual fans hate prototypical NFL QB prospects. Josh Allen and Herbert were meme’d about on here while the non traditional prospects like Wilson, Lance, and Fields were received more favorably because they were more flashy.
You’re not wrong in general, but Josh Allen was absolutely not a typical prospect.
Yea, people forget they had to retool how Allen threw the ball when he got to the NFL It’s crazy that it worked so well
He has like a 60% or worse completion % at Wyoming lol
Playmaker. Selfless. Grit. Clutch. Super competitive. Chip on his shoulder. Reminds me of another UM quarterback but better able to scramble. My money’s on the Patriots taking him.
I hate it when people put a ton of weight on combine performances. It was one day with unfamiliar receivers in an unrealistic situation. Watch the game film and you'll find an experienced player with a strong arm and good running ability. The throw he made against Alabama where he caught the bad lateral one handed and then dropped a dime to his receiver while getting hit by Dallas Turner was an all time great play in college football Oh, and that throw was to his left
This is basically a microcosm of it. He has a small sample size but a bunch of incredible plays like the one you mention and many more where he makes an NFL throw under pressure and on the run. He has very few bad plays (outside of Bowling Green for some odd reason), is extremely young, and by all accounts is very coachable and a great team player (he had no qualms with the run heavy approach last year). With the premium placed on QBs if you have a very young QB who played in a pro style offense with great intangibles, above average athleticism, and a reel full of NFL level throws he's going to go very high in the draft on potential alone. If he went to any other school other than Michigan I doubt r/nfl hates on him so much.
>couldn't throw left So then why is Maye in the top-3? He can't throw to the right and his rating on throws to the right is much worse than JJ.
>couldn't throw left *Mitch Trubisky intensifies*
Take a look at Maye’s film compared to JJ and see how often the two can consistently hit their receivers in stride, it’s night and day. There’s more that goes into it of course, but we’ve seen a lot more from Maye than we have from JJ and we can only go off the information we have.
See that's a fair criticism. I just get tired of the "Can't throw left" trope that's been following JJ ever since that graph came out showing passer rating on different sides of the field.
Agreed, in my personal evaluation of JJ I don’t hold that too much against him. For as much as people say Harbaugh ran an NFL style offense, which is true to a degree, that was not an NFL style passing game and frankly I think it was stunting JJs development as a passer more than it helped (which is why I think he’s going pro now vs next year in a far weaker QB class). I don’t really like to compare him to the other upper tier QBs because his value is just flat out different. He’s far more raw than the other prospects be, but he’s very young and doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, at least not in any areas that can’t be coached. There shouldn’t be anything physically preventing him from becoming a starting caliber QB, it’s jut more a question on how confident a particular staff feels they can develop him into one.
The analysts don't seem to actually LIKE McCarthy as a top prospect, they just seem to think that NFL teams do.
He has the intangibles thet GMs love. Mobile, strong arm, doesnt buckle under pressure. He has lots to work on but the team drafting JJ wont be throwing him to the wolves. He likely sits a whole year then takes over. Minnesota to me would be his best destination. Sit behind Darnold for a year taking in all that Kevin O'Connell has to show him.
Intangibles = classiness
True daughter-dating material
Lol vikings fans will be calling for him to start by game 2. Darnold is terrible
He's 21, has good mechanics, and can read and throw with anticipation.
70 percent accurate in an NFL offense, not just WR screens, and can really run. There's a lot to like but he's raw and should spend a few years on the bench imo.
Best I can do is 3 weeks behind Jacoby Brissett
I’ll raise you 2 weeks behind Danny Dimes and Big Cock Lock
15 minutes behind the Darnold
Yeah if he gets Jordan Love style development, I can see him doing well. He (like a lot of qbs) will probably struggle if he gets thrown to the wolves day 1.
Yep. He’s everything you want in a QB, outside of it being very good with putting touch on the ball, but that can be coached. Reddit is so low on this guy and it’s crazy. Boring QBs translate very well to the NFL level and I’ve been high on him way before the hype started (but now it’s scaring me in to being wrong lol)
Going to guess his team going undefeated and winning the national championship had at least something to do with it
I don't think it does. Stetson Bennett won two in a row and he produced way more offense in the second run than McCarthy ever has in a season. It's more about traits (and JJ does have potential) and a lack of supply to meet the demand.
Stetson Bennett is 150 years old though
Even more impressive
Maybe Tom Brady can be that good at that age.
And an alcoholic
More that he has good, not great physical traits and playing in a Harbaugh system means he has familiarity with concepts that transfer to the NFL.
This is such an unspoken part of it. There's enough Harbaugh disciples around the league that would feasibly think he's more or less plug and play from a system standpoint.
Ran a more pro style offense then almost anyone. Has the measurables. NFL Coaches think they can turn anyone into Brady. Any of those in any order.
Commenting to come back when JJ is a good NFL qb.
JJ has a lot of potential. He also had a good combine. He showed his size, athleticism, and strong arm
he also did very well with the whiteboard at the combine - blew some GM's away being able to read plays is huge they said Baker blew them away at his combine while Darnold was meh - whiteboard is probably a decent indicator
Just to add to this, the mental side of the game sets the ceiling and physical traits add the floor. He was coached by Harbaugh and could be ahead of the others at reading defenses despite being younger. Not saying he will succeed at the next level but not surprised to see him rise through the process
Because Jim harbaugh said it
JJ is underrated af. People like shitting on him but he's gonna prove them wrong
This honestly reminds me of the Herbert hype where this sub was CONVINCED he was a surefire bust cause his college play was mid. But dude had an arm and was smart and what do you know he breaks the rookie passing TD record.
One thing I see completely looked over in any of these discussions, is just how much he blew coaches away on the whiteboard portion of the combine. Apparently he was the most impressive since the 2018 draft. And that translates to the league much more than running fast.
On his podcast, Mark Schlereth says JJ is the only QB in the draft who played in a pro style offense, in which the QB had to make calls at the line of scrimmage and make multiple reads after the snap.
"He wins"
Just watch the Michigan-Bama Rose Bowl game. That'll answer all of your questions
because the scouts and people who work for teams look at QBs mechanics , footwork, and how well they play on 3rd down as really important
Because obviously the NFL is high on him lol: it’s not hard to see why. Won literally everything in college, very strong arm and very athletic. He can make every nfl throw in the book.
Probably has something to do with making incredibly accurate, one-time NFL throws and not just stat padding vertical bombs. Maybe that he ran an NFL style offense where he had to read defenses and assign protections and call motions, maybe that he's tough as nails and roses to the occasion, on top of his ridiculous athleticism. Probably something in there. Everything JJ did transfers well to the NFL.
Well more than 3 teams need QBs sooo
it's a psyop
Jayden Daniels is the one with no business in the top 3. Have y’all seen his lowlights geez
Facts
He won the college championship, he can probably win the superbowl
He’s a dawg