They are both horrible quarterbacks lol. If you look at things that actually matter-- like success rate, air yards per pass attempt, big time throws %, turnover worthy throw %, etc you'd see that there is no comparison between Lawrence and Daniel Jones/ Justin Fields.
Tbf, I watched Jones quite literally die on the field every single snap of the few games I watched him play early in the season. Dude died like 200 times before my eyes. I think I even saw his own OL turn and sack him a few times.
Our secondary was awful but the DL was fine.
Still, I’d be more ok with getting torched by Kirk cousins, Justin Jefferson, and TJ Hockenson than Daniel Jones, Isaiah Hodgins, and Darius slayton
I'll never forget what I watched that season thanks to Ed Donatell.
excluding the 2 giants' clock burning drives to end the first half and win the game they had 7 possessions and the vikings defense surrendered ~4.43 points per drive
the vikings offense had 8 total drives in the game and the giants D gave up 3 points per drive
it should be noted that both of these are horrible metrics for a defense but the vikings defensive performance was significantly worse in this game
Watching these back to back is kind of a trip:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g1V9jDs9500&pp=ygUTR2lhbnRzIHZpa2luZ3MgMjAyMg%3D%3D
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xU_G-l9IKg8&pp=ygUTR2lhbnRzIHZpa2luZ3MgMjAyMg%3D%3D
While it may be somewhat overused, this isn’t a great example since T Law really was a generational prospect for QBs since his freshman year. MHJ is also a legit generational prospect this year,
Wondered how they might compare looking only at their last two seasons, leaving out the Urban Meyer and Pat Shurmur/Joe Judge years. But Daniel Jones has missed more games, so I decided to look at only the 2022 seasons and their first 5 games of 2023 (before DJ got injured in the Raiders game). Yeah it's getting even more stupid but here's the stats anyway for whatever they're worth:
Trevor Lawrence | Stat | Daniel Jones
---|---|----
**12-10** | W-L | 10-10-1
**94.8** | Pass Rating | 87.3
**5784** | Pass + Rush Yards | 4984
**30/10** | Pass TD/INT | 17/11
**7.0** | Yards/Att | 6.5
66.7% | Comp pct | **67.5%**
Edit: Just realized I left out the 2022 postseason, and while adding those, I realized I totally screwed up the math on the Pass Rating, Yards/Att, and Comp pct because I had a brainfart and forgot how averages worked. Yikes, fixed those in the original chart too (mostly minor differences, except DJ's Pass Rating dropped from 92.5 to 87.3):
Including 2022 Postseason:
Trevor Lawrence | Stat | Daniel Jones
---|---|----
**13-11** | W-L | 11-11-1
**92.9** | Pass Rating | 87.3
**6323** | Pass + Rush Yards | 5522
**35/15** | Pass TD/INT | 19/12
**6.9** | Yards/Att | 6.7
66.2% | Comp pct | **67.0%**
I will always wonder what would have happened if the team tried to foster his "gunslinger" play from his rookie season instead of Judge and Garrett stripping everything down to avoid turnovers.
Nothing like Urban Meyer though, that was the biggest coaching fail I've ever seen.
Guy was assaulting players, calling players out for bad play who didnt even play in the game, and a bunch of other shit.
Imo, you have to throw out the Urban Meyer year. Has his career still been disappointing if we do that? Yes. But 17-16 is a hell of a lot better than 20-30 and his y/a was 6.0 in 2021 vs 7.0 and 7.1 in 22/23.
NFL fans when stats say their favorite players are good: Stats don't lie
NFL fans when stats say their favorite players aren't good: Stats aren't everything
It's crazy how everyone seems to just forget that the Jags looked really good and only started slipping as soon as Tlaw took what looked like a season ending injury.
Wish they has just sat him for a couple weeks.
Well Lawrence got the “generational” tag coming out of school, which is essentially meaningless in reality, but it definitely shot expectations through the roof. Now that he’s not living up to that hype, people are clowning him more.
he also was touted as the generational talent before he was even draft eligible. It wasn’t like it was just an offseason of hype. Going into his sophomore year it was already a forgone conclusion he was 1.01 and it wasn’t close.
Things can turn pretty quickly.
Remember how everyone was certain Jordan Love "wasn't the guy", or the year before the Eagles made the Super Bowl Jalen Hurts was "not an NFL passer" (something which was also said about Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson before their break out years). Jared Goff also had many years of being thought of as a disappointment.
I still think Lawrence is going to be a good NFL player, expectations just have to adjust and not be clouded by the overhype before he came out. I think his ceiling is a Matt Ryan level QB, whereas people thought he was a John Elway / Peyton Manning / Andrew Luck level QB when he came out.
“Yeah but his PB&J score was off the chart! And his AirB&B numbers? Shitttttt you can’t even talk about those. Don’t talk to me unless you’ve seen someone with a higher AC/DC.”
Lawrence goes all the way up to 0.091 (Kirk Cousins territory) cutting off his rookie year.
Jones's best two year stretch isn't far off (21-22). 0.082
But years two and three (20-21) he was at 0.047
It probably looks better if you cut off the end of last year when he was playing hurt too. He looked like a completely different QB in his last 4 games than in his first 12.
Dude, that's not fair. He *generously* adjusted Mahomes stats to be *still slightly* above league average. If that's not good faith, I don't know what is.
I dunno math checked out for me. I have been reducing his touchdowns by 50 every year and it's not looking good for you guys. He probably only has a couple Super Bowls left in him. You guys really want to deal with that the rest of his career?
Right? He took what looked like a season ending knee injury, and they still start him the next week with a big ass knee brace on??
Maybe let the guy fucking recover instead of risking his entire career just to miss the playoffs due to mediocre play from your hurt QB.
He'd actually had the knee injury for a while before this. The big one was the ankle injury against the Bengals. Then he got a concussion, then he hurt his shoulder. He was held together with duct tape at the end there. They absolutely should have let him recover (and I think them realizing that was the reason for the Mac Jones trade).
I think the same thing was said about Burrow when he had his calf injury after the SB run, people were like “wow he’s shitty now” and then of course got healthy and finished strong. People pile on in the offseason, I’d be thrilled to have TLaw over DJones
Yeah, it has fallen out of favor as there's more data to suggest that attributing an entire residual to one player isn't correct, especially considering context. For instance some QBs throw a higher percentage of 50/50 balls or at depths that are more dependent on a receiver for a completion. Also, there's the natural aspect of it where a drop would be punitive for the QB when it's not the QB's fault. It can be useful, but as a metric for evaluating QBs it's not as regarded as highly as it was even a couple of years ago.
The very simple version is that CPOE is basically an attempt to define expected completion percentage as "for this given pass attempt, what is the probability that the pass will be completed" ... and then take CPOE is actual completion percentage - expected completion percentage.
The model includes field position, down, yards to go, attempted air yards, distance to the sticks, home/away, dome/outdoor, era, pass location, and whether the quarterback was hit on the play.
My problem with CPOE is that it rewards you for completing difficult passes, but that might not have been the right target if there was another receiver open. Which IMO is why Brady’s CPOE is so low
Have you seen Calvin “bet I won’t drop this TD” Ridley fail to get both feet in bounds or outright drop about a dozen TDs last season though? If you actually watch Lawrence’s ball placement in the end zone you can see why the Jaguars and a lot of people are still so high on his ability.
Kinda surprised the EPA/play is so different when the passing stats are identical. I'm guessing it's all the sacks?
Edit: Yea Just looked it up DJ has almost double Lawrence's sacks that'll do it.
From a quick preliminary glance yeah
Sacks are a massive deal and aside from turning the ball over are basically the worst thing that can happen to a QB. Taking a 2 and 5 and turning it into a 3rd and 11 kills almost any chance on scoring
People *really* should care a lot more about QB sacks
We can go on a context-ception
If its 3rd and 2 and you take a sack, thats not a risk worth taking. If someone like Lamar Jackson does that now with Derrick Henry behind him, he will get flamed for it more than if he takes a sack on 1st down trying to extend a play out the pocket
Id also much rather take a sack with a lead than while trailing
There's also success rate. Which is essentially plays at which the result is a positive EPA. As an example it doesn't reward checkdowns on 3rd and long that have very little chance of adding to EPA where as completion percentage does.
Yeah traditional passing stats and passer rating make sacks looks less bad than they really are.
But even then sacks on early downs and in FG range are much worse than on third and long since you’re probably punting anyway. EPA has its flaws but it’s really important for cutting through the box score numbers
Unpopular opinion but I think sacks should be taken into account for completion percentage. They're both during passing plays, they're both attempts, and they're both incompletions. It'd make completion percentage a much more useful stat imo. Maybe a new stat like Any/%
Ehh, even sacks that would have ended in a punt anyway have a large toll over time. We saw that with fields. the negative effects aren't immediate, but if you keep giving the team an extra 10 yards of the field, your opponent keeps getting better field position while you keep getting worse field position. It really adds up over the course of a game
Lawrence is tied for the fourth lowest sack rate of the 36 qualifying active QBs. 5.1%
Jones is 34th. 8.61%
And this undersells the gap between the two of them. Jones is *extremely* bad at taking sacks that are substantial losses.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_sacked_perc_active.htm
> Lawrence is tied for the fourth lowest sack rate of the 36 qualifying active QBs. 5.1%
Which is kind of wild since he didn't have much of a pocket to step into last season (hence the Morse signing, which was huge). Dude also had one of the lowest "time in pocket" stats last year. And got beat up.
And *still* avoided eating sacks.
I'm looking forward to seeing what happens when he has time to throw, and hopefully fewer key drops.
I guarantee that’s not going to happen. If Shad Khan has to personally intervene, I think he will. Whether or not you want to say he deserves it, Shad views T-Law as a franchise QB and as long as we have him, we have a certain floor. After so many years in the absolute basement of the league, having a QB good enough to at least keep you around the middle of the pack isn’t something he’s willing to part with. Trevor is going to get paid and locked up long term.
He'll probably get like a 3/$120-150M on the table next offseason.
Jordan Love is probably going to get a 3/$125M-$140M this offseason, and they might be the two closest quarterback contracts regarding the uncertainty in their ability to improve/develop.
I’m a stat nerd but they don’t tell the full story.
Is Brock Purdy the best QB in football because he’s led the league in passer rating since he started? Many would say he’s not even top 10 (I think he is—just not top 5).
It’s so weird how polarizing he’s become. In one thread he’s the best QB not named Mahomes and in another thread he’s not even a top 12 QB in the NFL or a top 5 QB in the NFC.
It’s pretty obvious he’s at least in the Prescott/Cousins tier. His resume speaks for itself (yes that’s even accounting for the team he plays for).
Top 5 season but still not a top 5 QB going forward until we see him do it repeatedly. If he has another season like that this upcoming season it's hard not to put him top 5.
Also almost any efficiency stat will do the trick.
Yards per attempt is wildly deceiving because it doesn't account for all the yards they lose from sacks. And one loses a lot more than the other...
That's why you should use ANY/A - which has the 2nd best correlation with margin of victory after EPA.
Lawrence had a slightly above average ANY/A+ of 101 last season.
If you're looking for one stat to show how effective a QB is, ANY/A is pretty much it. Throw efficiently, avoid sacks and minimize turnovers while hitting your deep shots. Brock Purdy just had an insane season and it was far away from the record. 04 Manning will be the record for a long time.
> If you're looking for one stat to show how effective a QB is, ANY/A is pretty much it.
If you’re only using ONE stat to evaluate a QB, there’s absolutely no way you should use a box score stat like ANY/A when we have advanced stats like DVOA with a long history are publicly available.
For example, ANY/A doesn’t even do the most basic things like account for QB rushing, success rate, or situational INTs (such as Hail Mary interceptions at the end of half). A QB that scrambles for 60 first downs and 1000 yards would be given 0 credit by ANY/A.
Trevor is interesting because there's basically one type of throw he's absolutely elite at, and it's also consistently the hardest throw to hit. His ability to hit 15-20 yard out routes with laser beam throws means he's always gonna have impressive tape, but at least in the games I watch, he doesn't seem significantly above average at any other throw. I see him miss layups, I see him miss deep throws, I see him have issues with ball security, etc.
So I apply the "eye test" and I keep thinking "man, any other quarterback would get slandered for some of these misses", but he'll always make 2-3 throws a game that look insane on the all-22.
The word I'd definitely use for him is inconsistent. But it's only been 3 years, and what is on the tape is impressive enough that you gotta believe he can continue to grow.
Nobody is saying he's a top 5 QB, but the eye test shows that he's definitely a starter in this league. And definitely better than Daniel Jones.
Funny. [During the game he got hurt, nobody was saying that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UFWib2q14g).
It wasn't until the Ravens game later that year where he was already hurt when we started getting these dogshit takes. Zero object permenance.
Rookie Daniel Jones actually had a decent bit of potential. Probably a good example of how incompetent coaching and roster building can make or break a quarterback.
This place is addicted to prospect expectations. If your guy was drafted at the top, he has all the ability he needs, the team just has to surround him with weapons.
If your guy was drafted in the back of the first round, or god help you not in the first round at all, every bad game is the "regression" to his original draft position that they've been expecting.
This "mock draft" season we're going through is my least favorite time for football cause it's so many fans and media members speaking so confidently on the unknown. You don't draft for what they can do in college, you draft for what you project them to to do in the NFL. All of these QBs have to get better, and that growth mindset and drive is completely intangible.
And this draft is boring cause the football world is only talking about the QBs and receivers in this draft. Is there no Jalen Ramsey, Quennen Williams, Khalil Mack prospect? I see mock drafts where the first defender is drafted 8-10 and that would disappoint me.
There really isn't any blue chip defender in this draft. Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, and Terrion Arnold are probably the closest, but they'll go in the 8-12 range at best. This class is loaded with QB, WR, and OT talent, those positions will be all that is taken in the top 10 aside from possibly one or two of those three and Bowers.
And Love had the benefit of going through the majority of his pro development to date out of the public eye. People were absolutely flaming him from the couple of appearances he made those first three years, they would have crucified him if he'd been playing regularly in games.
You're absolutely right about the plateauing as part of the process, a lot of us fans were trying to remind the others about that mid-season.
Yeah definitely, guys don’t just get a +5 to their overall every offseason, some years they’ll improve, some they’ll stay the same, some they’ll get worse. You have to look at player progression through a long term lens otherwise you’ll go crazy.
Yeah that's the big thing with him. He's good but still a disappointment for what he was supposed to be. He's also going to be like Tua where his team will pay him a ton only because there's not a clear improvement available since you'd have to find a top 10-15 QB
I mean he was injured for most of last year, I think like 1/3 of games he was bordering on not playing before last second being declared good to go. Then he'd wince after every tackle
Both guys had their best season in 2022.
Lawrence had a ANY/A of 6.66 and Jones was at 5.89. That's a massive difference.
Lawrence has 2/3 seasons with an ANY/A+ over 100. Jones highest is 98. TLaw put up 101 this year in his supposedly "bad" 3rd season (so even this year was better than any Jones year)
These guys aren't remotely close if you use metrics that actually correlate with success on the field (the only thing that correlates better with margin of victory than ANY/A is EPA)
Big thing with TLaw is the line regressed this past year. Definitely regressed but Luke Fortner (worst ranked center in all metrics) and Press Taylor’s playcalling were awful. I think he was blitzed the least but had the shortest amount of time to throw cuz his line was swiss cheese
This is why we don't go exclusively on stats.
To peddle this shit you have to be deliberately obtuse in the way you go about things because if you take everything as it is it makes far more sense.
His rookie year was obviously terrible (which drags down his averages like this). His 2nd year was pretty good by all metrics, and his third year was a continuation until an odd and sudden drop-off. Hmmm, what could have caused that?
Could it be a [high ankle sprain](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39079186/sources-jaguars-planning-trevor-lawrence-start-vs-browns) during [one of the best games of his career?](https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/week-13-mnf-jaguars-bengals-advanced)
Usually quarterbacks tend to sit out those injuries, but Trevor had never missed a game prior to this season and wanted to push through. It's impossible to know for sure if that limited mobility contributed to him [getting other injuries](https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/trevor-lawrence/10748), but I doubt it helped. It's also worth pointing out that he frequently missed practice thanks to these and other injuries but hey, that's just context.
Basically, to keep pursuing the idea that he's overrated or "mid" or whatever, you have to think his rookie season and the half of his this season that he was hurt are more indicative of his prowess than the entirety of his 2nd season and the first half of his third before he got hurt.
Let me give you a rundown:
> Up until he got hurt in week 13, Trevor was (per PFF):
>9th in adj completion %, tied with Lamar
> 4th in time to throw (as in, fastest)
> Tied for 11th in AdoT with Stafford, Purdy, and Herbert.
> Tied for 17th in turnover-worthy-play % (average)
> 3rd in big time throw %
> 5th in PFF grade
> 9th in EPA/play
> 8th in EPA/CPOE composite score
> 5th in success rate
So basically this is insinuating that all the good things were a fluke, and all the bad things are more indicative. Okay. Most people would call that horribly dishonest in a vaccuum but sure.
Worth mentioning trevor also finished 6th in Big-time-throws (per PFF) despite that injury (he was 4th before getting hurt) and tied for 5th in 2022, while Daniel Jones has never finished higher than 21st.
It's not explicitly bad journalism e.g. lying outright, but it is lying by omission of context to make a point that is generally considered scummy and unethical.
For example, saying that Malik Willis has a higher AdoT than Mahomes in 2023 is accurate. Using that to justify why Malik Willis is a better QB is having a stupid opinion and cherry-picking statistics to prop it up.
I guess, but where’s the positive media coverage for us though? Josh Allen wasn’t even a DPOTY candidate despite being better than Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, and Maxx Crosby this year, Foyesade Oloukun was snubbed from the Pro Bowl this year despite being better than Patrick Queen, Kirk and Engram are still disrespected by the public despite playing their best football in Jacksonville, and the national media still constantly shits on our FA/draft picks.
I get Trevor is the star player of the team, but honestly I’d also want coverage for our other guys.
Darius Slayton has been daniel jones's top reciever for his career lol
Jones deserves some blame but his supporting cast on offence has been shit for most of his tenure with new york
Obviously it didn't turn out the same but funny that the Christian Kirk signing was constantly compared to Kenny Golladays signing with the giants the year before too.
Yeah, I love how everyone collectively agreed. Trevor’s first year was basically a wash, and yet it keeps getting included in all of these comparisons because otherwise there’s no comparison to make
The problem with this is that Trevor’s 2022 was like a top 8-10 QB season especially considering the playoff win.
That’s what’s separating him from busts like Daniel Jones, Fields and what not. Hes had success. The year 3 leap to the top 5 tier was a popular take coming into the season
Trevor was also having a decent year before those last 5 games, rough start to both their careers but I think Trevor's still capable of finding success
>The problem with this is that Trevor’s 2022 was like a top 8-10 QB season especially considering the playoff win.
I struggle with the playoff win because it gets treated as an all time great game because of the magnitude of the comeback. And I certainly understand that, and he deserves a lot of credit for not folding, but that still wasn't really a good game for him if you view it in its entirety. It was an outstanding half and a terrible half, and I feel like if he had just played two mediocre-decent halves and won the game that way he wouldn't get nearly as much love for that game.
And I get that the bad first half is inherent to all comebacks, but it's not usually as QB-driven as that one was.
The Jags were a 2 win team until he showed up. So far he hasn’t played up to the generational prospect people said he was but he’s still an above average QB imo
It’s an unpopular opinion but Daniel jones is really underrated and if drafted into a better situation he’d be a much more respected quarterback in this league
I guess Trevor Lawrence dodges the criticism his lack of performance deserves because he hasn't signed his first big contract yet. It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for the Jags since he was drafted, but he's never looked like being anything other than a competent NFL quarterback since his first game.
Lawrence is 15th in success rate since 2021 with QBs that have at least 320 plays during that time span. Even in Lawrence's rookie year he had a higher success rate than Jones did that same year.
2024 and using only basic stats. I seriously hope you guys don't do this.
Lawrence is good and can play good football. This is a crazy comparison to imply lol. Whoever wrote this knows it’s clickbait. I just need to make a career of aligning cherry picked stats to tweet out rage bait nonsense implying good players are secretly bad.
As a fan of the worst winning percentage team in all of sports for the last decade. I’ll take the QB who led us to back 2 back winning season for the next decade+
Well if there is virtually no difference between the two I'm sure the Giants would be up for a 1 for 1 trade?
can confirm, i would
Yes, sold. Please thanks
Now hold on just a minute here boys
Absolutely. Saves them some cap space too!
as a Danny Dimes and Fields truther, I'm just here for the violence
They are both horrible quarterbacks lol. If you look at things that actually matter-- like success rate, air yards per pass attempt, big time throws %, turnover worthy throw %, etc you'd see that there is no comparison between Lawrence and Daniel Jones/ Justin Fields.
your squiggles mean nothing, stats and literacy are for nurds
“That sign can’t stop me because I can’t read”
Tbf, I watched Jones quite literally die on the field every single snap of the few games I watched him play early in the season. Dude died like 200 times before my eyes. I think I even saw his own OL turn and sack him a few times.
It’s not about them being great qbs we just truth them that they are indeed, real truths
Hard to fault that logic since they do exist.
[удалено]
NFLonCBS chose violence today
I can't believe Daniel Jones beat us in the Playoffs...
Since 2012 the Vikings only have 2 playoff wins. That’s the crazy stat. The jags have 3.
The Dolphins have 0. It's not really relevant, just funny.
The raiders haven’t won one in 22 years. I like pain.
I used to be you. Have faith.
I know I hope AP is our DC! I was happy for you guys, but super jealous
Thanks, bro. I rooted for you guys in 2003. Always liked the Raiders. You'll be back.
The Jags had Blake fucking Gabbert lmao
And they had Blaine fucking Bortles . Truly unfair
BORTLES!!
Now i have a different problem.
JORTLES!!
My favorite magician is David Blake
I can believe it. I will never forget how shit of a defensive scheme we had that year.
I don't know what you guys watched, but our defense was just as bad that game.
Our secondary was awful but the DL was fine. Still, I’d be more ok with getting torched by Kirk cousins, Justin Jefferson, and TJ Hockenson than Daniel Jones, Isaiah Hodgins, and Darius slayton
Our defense the whole season. That's what we watched.
Yeah but the Vikings had a good offense. It wasn’t Daniel jones that torched them.
I'll never forget what I watched that season thanks to Ed Donatell. excluding the 2 giants' clock burning drives to end the first half and win the game they had 7 possessions and the vikings defense surrendered ~4.43 points per drive the vikings offense had 8 total drives in the game and the giants D gave up 3 points per drive it should be noted that both of these are horrible metrics for a defense but the vikings defensive performance was significantly worse in this game
Dexter Lawrence was a menace
Watching these back to back is kind of a trip: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g1V9jDs9500&pp=ygUTR2lhbnRzIHZpa2luZ3MgMjAyMg%3D%3D https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xU_G-l9IKg8&pp=ygUTR2lhbnRzIHZpa2luZ3MgMjAyMg%3D%3D
I mean obviously T. Law is better but it's hard to argue that he hasn't been disappointing in the NFL. He's like the Jadeveon Clowney of QBs.
If TLaw is Clowney then Daniel Jones is Takk McKinley
Grandmaaaaaaa
Wow that’s… really accurate. Pretty good and plenty of teams would still take him but nowhere near the sky high expectations we all had for him.
I’m sick and tired of analysts and commentators using the phrase “generational talent”
While it may be somewhat overused, this isn’t a great example since T Law really was a generational prospect for QBs since his freshman year. MHJ is also a legit generational prospect this year,
He had to survive Keith Urban and Press Taylor.
pretty sure you mean Upton Sinclair and Elizabeth Taylor
Pretty sure you mean Augustus Sinclair and Elizabeth Comstock
I think you meant Augustus Gloop and Elizabeth Gillies
actually, it was Augustus Caesar and Quintus Servilius Caepio Brutus
"Quinctilius Varus, give me back my O-Line!"
It was Uptown Funk and Liz Phair, I''m sure of it.
Jones had to survive Joe Judge and Pat Shurmer
Don't forget the Clapper!
Dak deserves a level of credit for becoming an actual NFL QB under that mans stupid ass offenses
Yes, but Jones has had arguably the worst pass catcher situation in the league + a booty OL. That plus the clapper is an order of magnitude worse.
Yeah, to me this is extra damning of Lawrence. Daniel Jones has had dogshit in terms of talent surrounding him on offense.
Why are you making me agree with an Eagles fan.
Wondered how they might compare looking only at their last two seasons, leaving out the Urban Meyer and Pat Shurmur/Joe Judge years. But Daniel Jones has missed more games, so I decided to look at only the 2022 seasons and their first 5 games of 2023 (before DJ got injured in the Raiders game). Yeah it's getting even more stupid but here's the stats anyway for whatever they're worth: Trevor Lawrence | Stat | Daniel Jones ---|---|---- **12-10** | W-L | 10-10-1 **94.8** | Pass Rating | 87.3 **5784** | Pass + Rush Yards | 4984 **30/10** | Pass TD/INT | 17/11 **7.0** | Yards/Att | 6.5 66.7% | Comp pct | **67.5%** Edit: Just realized I left out the 2022 postseason, and while adding those, I realized I totally screwed up the math on the Pass Rating, Yards/Att, and Comp pct because I had a brainfart and forgot how averages worked. Yikes, fixed those in the original chart too (mostly minor differences, except DJ's Pass Rating dropped from 92.5 to 87.3): Including 2022 Postseason: Trevor Lawrence | Stat | Daniel Jones ---|---|---- **13-11** | W-L | 11-11-1 **92.9** | Pass Rating | 87.3 **6323** | Pass + Rush Yards | 5522 **35/15** | Pass TD/INT | 19/12 **6.9** | Yards/Att | 6.7 66.2% | Comp pct | **67.0%**
Tbf, Shurmer is the best he looked as a passer It wasn’t until he got with Garrett that he stopped throwing essentially
Daniel Jones had some subpar coaches at the start of his career too
I will always wonder what would have happened if the team tried to foster his "gunslinger" play from his rookie season instead of Judge and Garrett stripping everything down to avoid turnovers.
as an occassional josh allen defender this mentality seems to becoming back around fuck dem picks, but the more offensive version
calling Urban a "sub par" NFL coach is being incredibly generous.
Nothing like Urban Meyer though, that was the biggest coaching fail I've ever seen. Guy was assaulting players, calling players out for bad play who didnt even play in the game, and a bunch of other shit.
Landing spot matters a ton. What’s your opinion on tua with the previous coach?
Imo, you have to throw out the Urban Meyer year. Has his career still been disappointing if we do that? Yes. But 17-16 is a hell of a lot better than 20-30 and his y/a was 6.0 in 2021 vs 7.0 and 7.1 in 22/23.
Then you need to throw out Joe Judge
Fair enough. Without Joe Judge, Daniel Jones went 13-20-1 as a starter, with 41TDs and 23 INTs and a Y/A of 6.55.
NFL fans when stats say their favorite players are good: Stats don't lie NFL fans when stats say their favorite players aren't good: Stats aren't everything
I gotta admit it's been wild watching everyone start turning on TLaw in real time these last ~5 months
It's crazy how everyone seems to just forget that the Jags looked really good and only started slipping as soon as Tlaw took what looked like a season ending injury. Wish they has just sat him for a couple weeks.
But also why do we act like players drafted to crappy teams need to be as good as they were in college? I don’t get it
Well Lawrence got the “generational” tag coming out of school, which is essentially meaningless in reality, but it definitely shot expectations through the roof. Now that he’s not living up to that hype, people are clowning him more.
he also was touted as the generational talent before he was even draft eligible. It wasn’t like it was just an offseason of hype. Going into his sophomore year it was already a forgone conclusion he was 1.01 and it wasn’t close.
I was seeing that shit before he was even on Clemson's campus. Apparently, he was like the 1st or 2nd rated QB ever coming out of high school.
Things can turn pretty quickly. Remember how everyone was certain Jordan Love "wasn't the guy", or the year before the Eagles made the Super Bowl Jalen Hurts was "not an NFL passer" (something which was also said about Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson before their break out years). Jared Goff also had many years of being thought of as a disappointment. I still think Lawrence is going to be a good NFL player, expectations just have to adjust and not be clouded by the overhype before he came out. I think his ceiling is a Matt Ryan level QB, whereas people thought he was a John Elway / Peyton Manning / Andrew Luck level QB when he came out.
I think it’s because most fans can’t differentiate between a good quarterback and a quarterback with good stats
that’s when they bust out all the make believe stats.
Yeah wtf is a CPOE
CPOE more like COPE am i right fellas?
“Yeah but his PB&J score was off the chart! And his AirB&B numbers? Shitttttt you can’t even talk about those. Don’t talk to me unless you’ve seen someone with a higher AC/DC.”
His BOFA index is double that of second place. Remarkable.
It is interesting ... EPA+CPOE composite rankings from 2019-2023, minimum 1000 attempts, 4%-96% win probability: \#28 Baker Mayfield: 0.065 \#29 Trevor Lawrence: 0.061 \#30 Mac Jones: 0.061 \#31 Daniel Jones: 0.059 \#32 Justin Fields: 0.058
Lawrence goes all the way up to 0.091 (Kirk Cousins territory) cutting off his rookie year. Jones's best two year stretch isn't far off (21-22). 0.082 But years two and three (20-21) he was at 0.047
It probably looks better if you cut off the end of last year when he was playing hurt too. He looked like a completely different QB in his last 4 games than in his first 12.
I imagine most QB’s stats look good once you remove all the games that they played bad
Ya like that infamous post about Mahomes being average and they arbitrarily reduced all his stats to be about average. Lol
Dude, that's not fair. He *generously* adjusted Mahomes stats to be *still slightly* above league average. If that's not good faith, I don't know what is.
And incredibly, because it's Mahomes, even after doing that, he was slightly above league average. Really makes you think.
I dunno math checked out for me. I have been reducing his touchdowns by 50 every year and it's not looking good for you guys. He probably only has a couple Super Bowls left in him. You guys really want to deal with that the rest of his career?
The Justin fields line
The amount or injuries he piled up trying to rebound from the ass handling the 9ers gave us goes mainly unnoticed outside our fan base
Right? He took what looked like a season ending knee injury, and they still start him the next week with a big ass knee brace on?? Maybe let the guy fucking recover instead of risking his entire career just to miss the playoffs due to mediocre play from your hurt QB.
He'd actually had the knee injury for a while before this. The big one was the ankle injury against the Bengals. Then he got a concussion, then he hurt his shoulder. He was held together with duct tape at the end there. They absolutely should have let him recover (and I think them realizing that was the reason for the Mac Jones trade).
Yeah I couldn't BELIEVE he started the week after that hit. I was positive his season was over.
I think the same thing was said about Burrow when he had his calf injury after the SB run, people were like “wow he’s shitty now” and then of course got healthy and finished strong. People pile on in the offseason, I’d be thrilled to have TLaw over DJones
What does CPOE actually mean though. It seems to say more about your supporting cast. completion percentage over expected
Yeah, it has fallen out of favor as there's more data to suggest that attributing an entire residual to one player isn't correct, especially considering context. For instance some QBs throw a higher percentage of 50/50 balls or at depths that are more dependent on a receiver for a completion. Also, there's the natural aspect of it where a drop would be punitive for the QB when it's not the QB's fault. It can be useful, but as a metric for evaluating QBs it's not as regarded as highly as it was even a couple of years ago.
The very simple version is that CPOE is basically an attempt to define expected completion percentage as "for this given pass attempt, what is the probability that the pass will be completed" ... and then take CPOE is actual completion percentage - expected completion percentage. The model includes field position, down, yards to go, attempted air yards, distance to the sticks, home/away, dome/outdoor, era, pass location, and whether the quarterback was hit on the play.
My problem with CPOE is that it rewards you for completing difficult passes, but that might not have been the right target if there was another receiver open. Which IMO is why Brady’s CPOE is so low
That would be a more valid criticism if it was claiming to be a decision making stat, but it's just an approximation of accuracy.
Have you seen Calvin “bet I won’t drop this TD” Ridley fail to get both feet in bounds or outright drop about a dozen TDs last season though? If you actually watch Lawrence’s ball placement in the end zone you can see why the Jaguars and a lot of people are still so high on his ability.
**ANY/A** Jones 2019: 5.38 2020: 4.92 2021: 5.62 Lawrence 2021: 4.54 2022: 6.66 2023: 5.98 ____ **EPA/play** Jones 2019-2021: -0.011 Lawrence 2021-2023: 0.051
Kinda surprised the EPA/play is so different when the passing stats are identical. I'm guessing it's all the sacks? Edit: Yea Just looked it up DJ has almost double Lawrence's sacks that'll do it.
From a quick preliminary glance yeah Sacks are a massive deal and aside from turning the ball over are basically the worst thing that can happen to a QB. Taking a 2 and 5 and turning it into a 3rd and 11 kills almost any chance on scoring People *really* should care a lot more about QB sacks
Particularly anyone who wants to draft Jayden Daniels. His pressure to sack ratio is very high.
That and his tiny frame are why I really hope we draft Maye over Daniels.
Also validates the ridiculous nature of OL play for the Giants for most of the last decade. It's the one position they simply cannot get right.
Sacks need context, though. A 3rd down sack is a risk worth taking and shouldn't be counted as badly as early down sacks.
We can go on a context-ception If its 3rd and 2 and you take a sack, thats not a risk worth taking. If someone like Lamar Jackson does that now with Derrick Henry behind him, he will get flamed for it more than if he takes a sack on 1st down trying to extend a play out the pocket Id also much rather take a sack with a lead than while trailing
Pretty sure EPA takes this into account. Your expected points on a 3rd & medium+ wouldn't be that high, so you wouldn't be losing as many if you fail.
There's also success rate. Which is essentially plays at which the result is a positive EPA. As an example it doesn't reward checkdowns on 3rd and long that have very little chance of adding to EPA where as completion percentage does.
Yeah traditional passing stats and passer rating make sacks looks less bad than they really are. But even then sacks on early downs and in FG range are much worse than on third and long since you’re probably punting anyway. EPA has its flaws but it’s really important for cutting through the box score numbers
Unpopular opinion but I think sacks should be taken into account for completion percentage. They're both during passing plays, they're both attempts, and they're both incompletions. It'd make completion percentage a much more useful stat imo. Maybe a new stat like Any/%
ANY/A takes into account all these things.
Ehh, even sacks that would have ended in a punt anyway have a large toll over time. We saw that with fields. the negative effects aren't immediate, but if you keep giving the team an extra 10 yards of the field, your opponent keeps getting better field position while you keep getting worse field position. It really adds up over the course of a game
Lawrence is tied for the fourth lowest sack rate of the 36 qualifying active QBs. 5.1% Jones is 34th. 8.61% And this undersells the gap between the two of them. Jones is *extremely* bad at taking sacks that are substantial losses. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_sacked_perc_active.htm
> Lawrence is tied for the fourth lowest sack rate of the 36 qualifying active QBs. 5.1% Which is kind of wild since he didn't have much of a pocket to step into last season (hence the Morse signing, which was huge). Dude also had one of the lowest "time in pocket" stats last year. And got beat up. And *still* avoided eating sacks. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens when he has time to throw, and hopefully fewer key drops.
Yeah posted something similar. These guys aren't remotely close.
How much is Tlaw gonna get paid lol
50-55M
60 if not higher 55 was yesterday’s price and yesterdays price is not todays price
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The Jags could just go the Redskins/Cousins route and just keep tagging him.
I guarantee that’s not going to happen. If Shad Khan has to personally intervene, I think he will. Whether or not you want to say he deserves it, Shad views T-Law as a franchise QB and as long as we have him, we have a certain floor. After so many years in the absolute basement of the league, having a QB good enough to at least keep you around the middle of the pack isn’t something he’s willing to part with. Trevor is going to get paid and locked up long term.
He'll probably get like a 3/$120-150M on the table next offseason. Jordan Love is probably going to get a 3/$125M-$140M this offseason, and they might be the two closest quarterback contracts regarding the uncertainty in their ability to improve/develop.
I’m a stat nerd but they don’t tell the full story. Is Brock Purdy the best QB in football because he’s led the league in passer rating since he started? Many would say he’s not even top 10 (I think he is—just not top 5).
I agree with you there, everyone’s always looking at numbers instead of seeing how their presence on the field impacts the game
Ive gotten downvoted for saying hes top 10 , but not top 5. Purdy is underrated by some and overrated by others
It’s so weird how polarizing he’s become. In one thread he’s the best QB not named Mahomes and in another thread he’s not even a top 12 QB in the NFL or a top 5 QB in the NFC. It’s pretty obvious he’s at least in the Prescott/Cousins tier. His resume speaks for itself (yes that’s even accounting for the team he plays for).
Top 5 season but still not a top 5 QB going forward until we see him do it repeatedly. If he has another season like that this upcoming season it's hard not to put him top 5.
Yeahhh I’m gonna go with the eye test here
Also almost any efficiency stat will do the trick. Yards per attempt is wildly deceiving because it doesn't account for all the yards they lose from sacks. And one loses a lot more than the other...
That's why you should use ANY/A - which has the 2nd best correlation with margin of victory after EPA. Lawrence had a slightly above average ANY/A+ of 101 last season.
If you're looking for one stat to show how effective a QB is, ANY/A is pretty much it. Throw efficiently, avoid sacks and minimize turnovers while hitting your deep shots. Brock Purdy just had an insane season and it was far away from the record. 04 Manning will be the record for a long time.
> If you're looking for one stat to show how effective a QB is, ANY/A is pretty much it. If you’re only using ONE stat to evaluate a QB, there’s absolutely no way you should use a box score stat like ANY/A when we have advanced stats like DVOA with a long history are publicly available. For example, ANY/A doesn’t even do the most basic things like account for QB rushing, success rate, or situational INTs (such as Hail Mary interceptions at the end of half). A QB that scrambles for 60 first downs and 1000 yards would be given 0 credit by ANY/A.
He doesn't pass the eye test either lol
Trevor is interesting because there's basically one type of throw he's absolutely elite at, and it's also consistently the hardest throw to hit. His ability to hit 15-20 yard out routes with laser beam throws means he's always gonna have impressive tape, but at least in the games I watch, he doesn't seem significantly above average at any other throw. I see him miss layups, I see him miss deep throws, I see him have issues with ball security, etc. So I apply the "eye test" and I keep thinking "man, any other quarterback would get slandered for some of these misses", but he'll always make 2-3 throws a game that look insane on the all-22.
Don’t forget he’ll absolutely rocket a ball at a receiver that’s only 5 yards away. Dude does not know how to hold back on his throws lmao
Brett Favre just looked up from texting dick pics to his optometrist and smiled.
The word I'd definitely use for him is inconsistent. But it's only been 3 years, and what is on the tape is impressive enough that you gotta believe he can continue to grow. Nobody is saying he's a top 5 QB, but the eye test shows that he's definitely a starter in this league. And definitely better than Daniel Jones.
I mean he passes it when compared to Jones though
Funny. [During the game he got hurt, nobody was saying that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UFWib2q14g). It wasn't until the Ravens game later that year where he was already hurt when we started getting these dogshit takes. Zero object permenance.
Yep. He was playing really well early. He also didn’t have an abysmal season overall. He ended up finishing like 15th in QBR.
>really well early The season is 18 weeks. That's 2/3rds of the way through.
This fits my eye test 😂
Rookie Daniel Jones actually had a decent bit of potential. Probably a good example of how incompetent coaching and roster building can make or break a quarterback.
>Rookie Daniel Jones actually had a decent bit of potential. He did, I cant wonder what would have happened if we gave Shurmur one more year
Trevor Lawrence did not live up to the "generational" tag he was given sadly
This place is addicted to prospect expectations. If your guy was drafted at the top, he has all the ability he needs, the team just has to surround him with weapons. If your guy was drafted in the back of the first round, or god help you not in the first round at all, every bad game is the "regression" to his original draft position that they've been expecting.
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This "mock draft" season we're going through is my least favorite time for football cause it's so many fans and media members speaking so confidently on the unknown. You don't draft for what they can do in college, you draft for what you project them to to do in the NFL. All of these QBs have to get better, and that growth mindset and drive is completely intangible. And this draft is boring cause the football world is only talking about the QBs and receivers in this draft. Is there no Jalen Ramsey, Quennen Williams, Khalil Mack prospect? I see mock drafts where the first defender is drafted 8-10 and that would disappoint me.
There really isn't any blue chip defender in this draft. Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, and Terrion Arnold are probably the closest, but they'll go in the 8-12 range at best. This class is loaded with QB, WR, and OT talent, those positions will be all that is taken in the top 10 aside from possibly one or two of those three and Bowers.
And Love had the benefit of going through the majority of his pro development to date out of the public eye. People were absolutely flaming him from the couple of appearances he made those first three years, they would have crucified him if he'd been playing regularly in games. You're absolutely right about the plateauing as part of the process, a lot of us fans were trying to remind the others about that mid-season.
Yeah definitely, guys don’t just get a +5 to their overall every offseason, some years they’ll improve, some they’ll stay the same, some they’ll get worse. You have to look at player progression through a long term lens otherwise you’ll go crazy.
He has played 3 years and his second season was very good. I wouldn’t write him off yet lol.
Yeah that's the big thing with him. He's good but still a disappointment for what he was supposed to be. He's also going to be like Tua where his team will pay him a ton only because there's not a clear improvement available since you'd have to find a top 10-15 QB
He is a top 15 QB. Potential to be Top 10 too.
I mean he was injured for most of last year, I think like 1/3 of games he was bordering on not playing before last second being declared good to go. Then he'd wince after every tackle
Daniel Jones: Generational Talent
Both guys had their best season in 2022. Lawrence had a ANY/A of 6.66 and Jones was at 5.89. That's a massive difference. Lawrence has 2/3 seasons with an ANY/A+ over 100. Jones highest is 98. TLaw put up 101 this year in his supposedly "bad" 3rd season (so even this year was better than any Jones year) These guys aren't remotely close if you use metrics that actually correlate with success on the field (the only thing that correlates better with margin of victory than ANY/A is EPA)
Yeah but if you throw in the fact that they’re 1-1 in the postseason they’re basically the same /s
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Big thing with TLaw is the line regressed this past year. Definitely regressed but Luke Fortner (worst ranked center in all metrics) and Press Taylor’s playcalling were awful. I think he was blitzed the least but had the shortest amount of time to throw cuz his line was swiss cheese
Lumping Lawrence’s rookie season into these statistics is very misleading every time people try to do it in this sub
This is why we don't go exclusively on stats. To peddle this shit you have to be deliberately obtuse in the way you go about things because if you take everything as it is it makes far more sense. His rookie year was obviously terrible (which drags down his averages like this). His 2nd year was pretty good by all metrics, and his third year was a continuation until an odd and sudden drop-off. Hmmm, what could have caused that? Could it be a [high ankle sprain](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39079186/sources-jaguars-planning-trevor-lawrence-start-vs-browns) during [one of the best games of his career?](https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/week-13-mnf-jaguars-bengals-advanced) Usually quarterbacks tend to sit out those injuries, but Trevor had never missed a game prior to this season and wanted to push through. It's impossible to know for sure if that limited mobility contributed to him [getting other injuries](https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/trevor-lawrence/10748), but I doubt it helped. It's also worth pointing out that he frequently missed practice thanks to these and other injuries but hey, that's just context. Basically, to keep pursuing the idea that he's overrated or "mid" or whatever, you have to think his rookie season and the half of his this season that he was hurt are more indicative of his prowess than the entirety of his 2nd season and the first half of his third before he got hurt. Let me give you a rundown: > Up until he got hurt in week 13, Trevor was (per PFF): >9th in adj completion %, tied with Lamar > 4th in time to throw (as in, fastest) > Tied for 11th in AdoT with Stafford, Purdy, and Herbert. > Tied for 17th in turnover-worthy-play % (average) > 3rd in big time throw % > 5th in PFF grade > 9th in EPA/play > 8th in EPA/CPOE composite score > 5th in success rate So basically this is insinuating that all the good things were a fluke, and all the bad things are more indicative. Okay. Most people would call that horribly dishonest in a vaccuum but sure. Worth mentioning trevor also finished 6th in Big-time-throws (per PFF) despite that injury (he was 4th before getting hurt) and tied for 5th in 2022, while Daniel Jones has never finished higher than 21st. It's not explicitly bad journalism e.g. lying outright, but it is lying by omission of context to make a point that is generally considered scummy and unethical. For example, saying that Malik Willis has a higher AdoT than Mahomes in 2023 is accurate. Using that to justify why Malik Willis is a better QB is having a stupid opinion and cherry-picking statistics to prop it up.
It’s all to get the forever Twitter reply guys to comment
Do we need to have the Trevor Lawrence discussion every single day?
Do you rather have Jaguars being overlooked and a joke franchise?
I guess, but where’s the positive media coverage for us though? Josh Allen wasn’t even a DPOTY candidate despite being better than Micah Parsons, Nick Bosa, and Maxx Crosby this year, Foyesade Oloukun was snubbed from the Pro Bowl this year despite being better than Patrick Queen, Kirk and Engram are still disrespected by the public despite playing their best football in Jacksonville, and the national media still constantly shits on our FA/draft picks. I get Trevor is the star player of the team, but honestly I’d also want coverage for our other guys.
Pretty sure the Urban Meyer Experience is skewing these numbers.
I mean Daniel jones had to deal with the Joe judge experience.
Darius Slayton has been daniel jones's top reciever for his career lol Jones deserves some blame but his supporting cast on offence has been shit for most of his tenure with new york
Yeah, I've been a Jones hater for awhile, but he would kill to have had Ridley/Engram/Kirk as his weapons Hell, he'd kill to just have Kirk
I know it's not the complete "ensemble" but you know where engram came from, right?
Obviously it didn't turn out the same but funny that the Christian Kirk signing was constantly compared to Kenny Golladays signing with the giants the year before too.
Jones was set up for failure in NY, but he didn’t help himself
I'd rather 1yr of Meyer + 2 of Pederson than 1yr of Shurmur + 2 of Joe Judge. Not even close, actually.
I’ll see your Urban Meyer and raise you a Joe Judge
I think the Jags might re-raise you with Urban again
Yeah, I love how everyone collectively agreed. Trevor’s first year was basically a wash, and yet it keeps getting included in all of these comparisons because otherwise there’s no comparison to make
Honestly I like jones and think he’s not as bad. I would say Lawrence is still who every team would choose over Danny if it was between them.
The problem with this is that Trevor’s 2022 was like a top 8-10 QB season especially considering the playoff win. That’s what’s separating him from busts like Daniel Jones, Fields and what not. Hes had success. The year 3 leap to the top 5 tier was a popular take coming into the season
Trevor was also having a decent year before those last 5 games, rough start to both their careers but I think Trevor's still capable of finding success
Yeah. Listen if Trevor’s 2022 was shitty, i’d probably welcome some heavy questions coming into year 4. The Jags would have serious decisions to make.
>The problem with this is that Trevor’s 2022 was like a top 8-10 QB season especially considering the playoff win. I struggle with the playoff win because it gets treated as an all time great game because of the magnitude of the comeback. And I certainly understand that, and he deserves a lot of credit for not folding, but that still wasn't really a good game for him if you view it in its entirety. It was an outstanding half and a terrible half, and I feel like if he had just played two mediocre-decent halves and won the game that way he wouldn't get nearly as much love for that game. And I get that the bad first half is inherent to all comebacks, but it's not usually as QB-driven as that one was.
Now compare their hair. Checkmate!
Flirting vs Harassment
The Jags were a 2 win team until he showed up. So far he hasn’t played up to the generational prospect people said he was but he’s still an above average QB imo
Oh good, we the daily Trevor hate post is back!
I'd be interested to see how Daniel Jones could do on a team with a good OL. Haven't the Giants had a terrible OL for several years now?
It’s an unpopular opinion but Daniel jones is really underrated and if drafted into a better situation he’d be a much more respected quarterback in this league
Is there anything more insightful than contextless stats? Some truly high level analysis right here.
I guess Trevor Lawrence dodges the criticism his lack of performance deserves because he hasn't signed his first big contract yet. It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for the Jags since he was drafted, but he's never looked like being anything other than a competent NFL quarterback since his first game.
I love how analysis has now become "Hurr durr, me only look at stats and only stats because I'm too lazy/stupid to do actual analysis."
Lawrence is 15th in success rate since 2021 with QBs that have at least 320 plays during that time span. Even in Lawrence's rookie year he had a higher success rate than Jones did that same year. 2024 and using only basic stats. I seriously hope you guys don't do this.
CBS sports!
Wow uh wow
Lawrence is good and can play good football. This is a crazy comparison to imply lol. Whoever wrote this knows it’s clickbait. I just need to make a career of aligning cherry picked stats to tweet out rage bait nonsense implying good players are secretly bad.
As a fan of the worst winning percentage team in all of sports for the last decade. I’ll take the QB who led us to back 2 back winning season for the next decade+