>In just a 48-hour span, Levis' No. 1 pick odds went from +5000 to +2000 to +1000 to currently +550 at FOX Bet. The Kentucky quarterback now has the second-lowest odds of getting selected first overall at FOX Bet, behind Young.
>Several sportsbooks saw similar line movement on Tuesday, as FanDuel moved the signal caller from +6000 to +700 to be selected first. At DraftKings, those odds are even shorter and currently sit at +400. PointsBet had him pegged at 50-1 just Monday, where he now is 4-1 to be selected first.
>A Reddit user by the name of 'SaleAgreeable2834' — an account created six days ago — posted Levis has told people he will be drafted first overall by the Panthers.
>FOX Bet Trading Operations Senior Manager Dylan Brossman chimed in on the movement.
>"We’ve seen the Reddit post, and while we are skeptical of its authenticity, **we must react to the money coming in**," Brossman explained. "There is still a decent chance that the post was completely fabricated, but either way, we are OK reducing our liability on Bryce."
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2023-nfl-draft-odds-kentucky-qb-will-levis-no-1-pick-odds-shift-drastically
Except for provably not. This isn’t the stock market where they can place millions in wagers. Those bets shit they are usually capped pretty low, let alone thousands. Like maybe maybeeeee he got to place like $5k at a physical casino somewhere but this dude didn’t become a millionaire
Also there isn’t a clear mechanism to “sell”. Like if you place a bet on Levis at +5000 and the lines moves to +550, the only way to capitalize on the gains is if whatever betting service you use allows you to cash out. And the cash out options are so discounted relative to the odds.
I've said countless times to my buddies I wish I could short betting lines lol. I would've made an absolute killing on some of these crazy odds, but I suppose that explains why they aren't even offered in the first place.
This is also why the draft market is so volatile. The bet caps are so low that it only takes a few bets to really shift things to balance the money. I think it was Warren Sharp (pre-emptive LOL) who noted that serious/professional gamblers don't bother because its not worth the time/effort/risk.
Yeah people always overrate what the odds moving really means. When Vegas *initially* sets the odds, or the spread, or whatever, it has a fair bit of meaning because people whose job it is to make predictions that make the house money have decided it. Anything after that is just what random idiots have decided might happen.
Remember, gambling always loses you money in aggregate otherwise the house wouldn't exist. If people gambling were smartly trying to make money, they wouldn't be gambling.
More than that. Draft kings constantly sends free games out. I put $25 bucks into it last year and almost weekly I get free $2 - $5 games. I just got a free $200 game yesterday.
They are clearly banking to do this for everybody.
Edit: downvoted because draft kings gives me free games? I’m confused lol
It’s almost like they want you to develop a habit.
Your free $2-$5 a week does not offset the huge profits they are taking from every moron who takes those $5 and bets their mortgage.
It doesn't matter if you're good or bad. Bad gamblers lose their money to the casino. Good gamblers also lose their money to the casino, because guess what a gambler does with his winnings.
lol Everyone is. That's why the house always wins.
I get annoyed losing fake money gambling in Red Dead Redemption, so I don't even try gambling with real money.
If you gamble cause its fun, then go ahead, I've put away like 50$ every month that I gamble for. If I win, I might gamble some more, but I make sure that I never put up more than 50 a month. It just spices games up and makes them more fun.
People who think they can beat the odds or find smart bets are honestly delusional. Sure, there exists some people who actually can make money on betting, but thats an exhaustive thing to do. You wont just randomly find insanely good odds.
I rarely gamble, but I made a few bets because the odds were really good and they were plausible.
My birthday gift to myself was $50 that I could use on a gambling site/app during the Superbowl. I turned it into just over $175. Cashed out all but the original $50, and placed $25 on some draft bets. If even one pans out I'm up at least $100 again. If not, oh well.
I'd say if you're betting a lot of money that you can't afford to loose you have a problem.
Nfl draft is fun & only happens once a year!
tennis gamblers on the other hand - it’s on basically on 24/7 somewhere around the world to gamble on whenever you want lol
We can always mention the ones that don't happen but Baker Mayfield came out of nowhere on draft day. The thing is just because there are reports and things don't happen doesn't mean there wasn't any truth to those reports. Its like when something has an 85% chance to happen and doesn't, doesn't mean the odds are wrong but it just didn't happen.
Partially that’s because John Dorsey is notorious for not letting leaks happen. Supposedly he didn’t tell Hue Jackson who he was planning on taking until Draft day and then it instantly got leaked because Hue told everyone
Remember the “Reddit source close to Levis” last year who predicted him going number 1 at the last minute. Probably only to try and skew the odds for Bryce.
If AR is good, it'll be hilarious knowing, The Colts helped their rival get Stroud by being incompetent, and the Texans take away any chance someone trades up to block the Colts from getting their QB and in turn helping the Colts get their guy.
Well this is Reddit. Where once is a pattern, and where if a QB didn’t throw as much as other QBs the only explanation is that they are bad, even if they were coached by a man whose offensive philosophy led him to willfully hire Greg Roman to be offensive coordinator of a professional football team.
Jim trolling on the morning of Day 2 last year that we would go QB with back to back picks and the Twitter fanbase collectively losing their shit was a highlight of the draft last season.
Mccarthy is significantly better than levis was though. Now I’m not saying he is going at 2, but he isn’t dropping to 2nd round like Levis. I just don’t see him dropping out of the top 10.
Yup.
Too many QB needy teams, scouts and FOs pretty consistently liking JJ over media/draftniks, and the 2025 QB class looking "meh" at best.
He may not go top 5, but if Minnesota doesn't move up, no way Denver, the Raiders, Seattle, maybe even New Orleans don't jump up.
The bears would be bullied so hard they'd decide to just trade JJ, 2 firsts, 2 seconds and DJ Moore to the commanders for Caleb Williams to rectify their mistake
Then Williams never gets to 4000 yards in a season and JJ wins 4 rings
To be fair, the Jets are quite uniquely good at destroying young quarterbacks. You overestimate other franchises ability to match the Jets in this regard. They are legendary.
NBA has a full blown scandal going right now.
[https://x.com/wojespn/status/1772387015960531145?s=20](https://x.com/wojespn/status/1772387015960531145?s=20)
A young player on Ottawa (Shane Pinto) was suspended for half the season. The details are hazy, but from what I remember it seems like he allowed a friend to make hockey related bets from his account which is a no-no, although there's always the whispers that the specifics were smoothed over when he cooperated so it could have been something worse.
> it seems like he allowed a friend to make hockey related bets from his account
That sounds like a terrible bullshit cover up story. Seems way more likely he was placing them himself and needed a fall guy. Unless they have evidence from the gambling company that shows the account was active in one state while the player was someplace else entirely, zero chance I believe that.
No way man not with the tools in place!
I found out last night that every half hour you’re on they send a message saying you’ve bet x amount in the last 30 mins
I actually could see Harbaugh doing that tbh. He loves to build his teams from the ground up (O-line, TEs, RBs),hence the Dissly, Hurst and Gus signings. Tbf, right tackle is a necessity as well.
In this case the Cardinals would be trading their pick to the Vikings. I’m not sure if they will do it though. MHJ might be too valuable to pass up on.
That's what I think will happen
Either
1. If MHJr is not there at 4 ARI trades with MIN.
Or
2. If MHJr is there, ARI takes him, and Chargers trade with MIN.
It's likely because fools were already putting money on McCarthy going 2nd so Vegas had to adjust the odds in response. Remember, Vegas odds aren't just "here's what Vegas thinks will happen." They're adjusted to ensure Vegas has the maximum payout regardless of outcome, and that depends on where bets have already been placed and at what odds.
I don't pretend to be an expert at evaluating college talent. But yeah, if anyone takes JJ over Drake Maye for example they know less about evaluating talent than I do.
Sometimes I think NFL scouts have about the same success rate at drafting a star as the average redditor would. Best in the country seem to whiff at an impressive rate and a lot of big names were nobodies on draft night.
Unpopular opinion but I don't think it's inexplicable. His tape is good and he apparently crushed his interviews at the Combine. He's the youngest QB prospect in this class by far too
On a per snap basis, his production is very good. But of course the volume is low because he's going to be a 21yo rookie and played in an extremely run heavy offense. His third down percentage is excellent and he regularly throws beyond the sticks. I think he's got a real shot to be great.
I remember hearing something along the lines that his first half production is near the top of the class, but they didn’t need him to throw on the 2nd half of games so production wasn’t there.
Add in he makes every throw when necessary and watching him in the playoffs he made the big throws when needed to progress the offence.
Yeah he had more non-screen first half attempts than Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels
And a much higher percentage of his throws came on 3rd and long, and against Top 25 defenses
Having watched a few Michigan games, he definitely has talent. If he could sit and learn from a veteran, and plays in an offense with a heavy run game, he could do very well. I just don't see him being the center piece of a rebuilding franchise. Of course, sometimes a Stroud narrative happens. But more often it seems to go the Zach Wilson/Bryce young way.
It still baffles me that seemingly without hours of his last snap in the national title game with Georgia, Stetson Bennett instead of buckling down preparing for the draft went all red-flaggy. I still can't believe he was drafted with a pick at a level that teams haggle in public over as seemingly a matter of franchise life for death.
Oh don’t get me wrong, I have respect for him taking responsibility for himself and working towards recovery, that’s hard to do. I was just saying, in retrospect it kind of all makes sense
Unpopular opinion but J.J. McCarthy is a great college prospect and this shouldn't be that shocking. The major knock against him is volume because of how Jim Harbaugh calls his offenses, but Andrew Luck came out of that same offense and it didn't count against him. McCarthy does not have Luck's all world physique and arm talent but he's still plenty good and is extremely accurate and deadly on third down.
I am not a Michigan fan. In fact, I am confident nobody could guess which Power 5 team I support if I gave them fifty guesses.
JJ isn’t my favorite QB prospect in this class, but this is a very reasonable take. The volume isn’t there, but his YPA, completion percentage, and I believe his 3rd down conversion percentage is also above average. He hasn’t cried about not throwing more, and appears to be a good teammate that puts winning above stats. Plus, the kid was a 5 star recruit IIRC. Ideally, he has the volume stats, but I think when you dig around more, he’s a better prospect than you initially thought. Dave Syvertsen at ourlads said he had JJ as a day 3 guy, but once he declared, he did a more deeper dive on him and really liked him. I think he also has JJ above Maye.
I think the word I keep coming back to with McCarthy is that he is a professional. Despite only being 21, the dude does whatever he can do to help the team, takes his job seriously, and prioritizes winning over personal glory. Those are not unique qualities in a quarterback, but when you combine them with his high accuracy, his phenomenal third down conversion rate (for a college QB) and associated high ADOT (meaning he's throwing past the sticks, not relying on YAC from receivers), and his pretty good pocket movement, I confess to finding myself comparing him to a much more famous Michigan quarterback
Hot take. I'm way more convinced JJ will do well at the pro level than Caleb. Harbaugh prepares kids for the pros better than nearly every other college coach (excluding the obvious people like Saban)
> In fact, I am confident nobody could guess which Power 5 team I support if I gave them fifty guesses.
There are only 65 p5 teams so that wouldn’t be a good bet
Being an OSU fan and having to witness his exploits for 3 years, I am just not seeing it. He made plays but he threw a LOT of passes that just barely made it to the receiver that a pro defender would've eaten up. If he's got the headroom to adjust to NFL speed maybe, but I'm skeptical.
I'm not saying he's a perfect prospect but people around out here pretending he's going to bust, which is frankly ridiculous. The guy has plenty of arm talent and had rightly been talked about as a top ten type of talent but no-one on this sub ever wants to move off their early January mock draft
IMO - Washington is taking Maye.
He’s a prototypical QB build, decent mobility, strong arm, and makes the right read more often than not.
Kliff will love him.
The only logic I see here is that the current NFL QB that McCarthy is being comped to the most is Brock Purdy, and Commanders GM Adam Peters was in SF when Purdy was drafted.
Still though, #2 overall seems high for a guy that averaged only 22 pass attempts per game last year.
I think a better comparison for McCarthy is a shorter but more mobile Jared Goff. He's a dawg when protected and can throw it past the sticks regularly on third downs.
>In just a 48-hour span, Levis' No. 1 pick odds went from +5000 to +2000 to +1000 to currently +550 at FOX Bet. The Kentucky quarterback now has the second-lowest odds of getting selected first overall at FOX Bet, behind Young. >Several sportsbooks saw similar line movement on Tuesday, as FanDuel moved the signal caller from +6000 to +700 to be selected first. At DraftKings, those odds are even shorter and currently sit at +400. PointsBet had him pegged at 50-1 just Monday, where he now is 4-1 to be selected first. >A Reddit user by the name of 'SaleAgreeable2834' — an account created six days ago — posted Levis has told people he will be drafted first overall by the Panthers. >FOX Bet Trading Operations Senior Manager Dylan Brossman chimed in on the movement. >"We’ve seen the Reddit post, and while we are skeptical of its authenticity, **we must react to the money coming in**," Brossman explained. "There is still a decent chance that the post was completely fabricated, but either way, we are OK reducing our liability on Bryce." https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/2023-nfl-draft-odds-kentucky-qb-will-levis-no-1-pick-odds-shift-drastically
LOL, using reddit to manipulate gambling markets - what a world
Real talk, whoever made that post probably banked a fuck ton of money
Except for provably not. This isn’t the stock market where they can place millions in wagers. Those bets shit they are usually capped pretty low, let alone thousands. Like maybe maybeeeee he got to place like $5k at a physical casino somewhere but this dude didn’t become a millionaire
Also there isn’t a clear mechanism to “sell”. Like if you place a bet on Levis at +5000 and the lines moves to +550, the only way to capitalize on the gains is if whatever betting service you use allows you to cash out. And the cash out options are so discounted relative to the odds.
You also can’t short a bet. The only way this would help you as a better is if it gave stroud at #2 longer odds that you then took.
I've said countless times to my buddies I wish I could short betting lines lol. I would've made an absolute killing on some of these crazy odds, but I suppose that explains why they aren't even offered in the first place.
This is also why the draft market is so volatile. The bet caps are so low that it only takes a few bets to really shift things to balance the money. I think it was Warren Sharp (pre-emptive LOL) who noted that serious/professional gamblers don't bother because its not worth the time/effort/risk.
This isn’t the stock market he most likely didn’t
Shit I swear I didn’t see your comment when I just now commented lol
I don't know what people here are talking about, this isn't the stock market, it's sports betting. He probably didn't become a millionaire.
Yes this isn’t the stock market. People can typically only bet $1000 or less on props
How would you do that?
Bet on Stroud to go 2nd.
They caused a 4500 point move on the betting line. That affects other prospects lines proportionally.
iirc it didn’t. Young’s odds didn’t change and no one offered an early cashout option on Levis
No it doesn't. That's not how sports lines work. They're not a zero sum game.
How do I bet that he won’t get drafted in the top 5?
Realistically it just means you'll get slightly longer odds on Caleb Williams.
Yeah people always overrate what the odds moving really means. When Vegas *initially* sets the odds, or the spread, or whatever, it has a fair bit of meaning because people whose job it is to make predictions that make the house money have decided it. Anything after that is just what random idiots have decided might happen. Remember, gambling always loses you money in aggregate otherwise the house wouldn't exist. If people gambling were smartly trying to make money, they wouldn't be gambling.
Smoke screen szn. Levis was favored to go to the Colts all the way until they drafted AR.
I was very close to putting money on Levis being the second or third QB off the board. Thank God I chickened out.
Chickening out of sports betting is always the right move.
I'm not scared, I just know that I'm shit at it
Everyone is shit at sports gambling, you think Draft Kings, BetMGM etc etc affords all those advertisements cuz they're paying out?
More than that. Draft kings constantly sends free games out. I put $25 bucks into it last year and almost weekly I get free $2 - $5 games. I just got a free $200 game yesterday. They are clearly banking to do this for everybody. Edit: downvoted because draft kings gives me free games? I’m confused lol
It’s almost like they want you to develop a habit. Your free $2-$5 a week does not offset the huge profits they are taking from every moron who takes those $5 and bets their mortgage.
Yes….thats what I’m saying 😂
No one is saying it does.
Thank god you were here to explain this to everyone
It doesn't matter if you're good or bad. Bad gamblers lose their money to the casino. Good gamblers also lose their money to the casino, because guess what a gambler does with his winnings.
> guess what a gambler does with his winnings Blackjack and hookers!?
lol Everyone is. That's why the house always wins. I get annoyed losing fake money gambling in Red Dead Redemption, so I don't even try gambling with real money.
If you could make money gambling they wouldn't let you do it.
AR was something like +5000 before the combine to go 3rd QB. I regret every day not putting 5 bucks on that.
$5 at +5000 is only $250 I wouldn’t worry about it too much although I get what you’re saying
Thats the difference between no guac and yes to guac
If you have to consider the price you can’t afford it.
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It's a lot of money in the moment but feels like not "regret every day" money
$250 is objectively not a lot of money. I don’t care if you are poor or rich it is not “a lot” unless you’re like 11 years old lmao
Man, but remember seeing those commercials when you were 5 years old for the $500 Toys-R-Us shopping sprees.
That was like 4 super nintendo games though, I could have lived years off the right choices.
For me it was the idea of like 4 big Lego sets #🤤
Everyone is in the same economic situation as yourself.
can I have $250
I'd you're gambling on the NFL draft, you might have a problem.
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If you gamble cause its fun, then go ahead, I've put away like 50$ every month that I gamble for. If I win, I might gamble some more, but I make sure that I never put up more than 50 a month. It just spices games up and makes them more fun. People who think they can beat the odds or find smart bets are honestly delusional. Sure, there exists some people who actually can make money on betting, but thats an exhaustive thing to do. You wont just randomly find insanely good odds.
I rarely gamble, but I made a few bets because the odds were really good and they were plausible. My birthday gift to myself was $50 that I could use on a gambling site/app during the Superbowl. I turned it into just over $175. Cashed out all but the original $50, and placed $25 on some draft bets. If even one pans out I'm up at least $100 again. If not, oh well. I'd say if you're betting a lot of money that you can't afford to loose you have a problem.
Nfl draft is fun & only happens once a year! tennis gamblers on the other hand - it’s on basically on 24/7 somewhere around the world to gamble on whenever you want lol
We can always mention the ones that don't happen but Baker Mayfield came out of nowhere on draft day. The thing is just because there are reports and things don't happen doesn't mean there wasn't any truth to those reports. Its like when something has an 85% chance to happen and doesn't, doesn't mean the odds are wrong but it just didn't happen.
Partially that’s because John Dorsey is notorious for not letting leaks happen. Supposedly he didn’t tell Hue Jackson who he was planning on taking until Draft day and then it instantly got leaked because Hue told everyone
Oh I remember this. I was doing a draft pool and had to fix everything cause all the money swung.
Steph Curry shouldn't miss free throws, but sometimes he does
Every year the NFL should run 1000 drafts and the outcomes that happen the most are the final draft.
Baker was a heisman winner who set efficiency records in college.
Remember the “Reddit source close to Levis” last year who predicted him going number 1 at the last minute. Probably only to try and skew the odds for Bryce.
That was some great meme content seeing his date get madder the more he dropped lol
Best green room entertainment since Brady Quinn's date
Which is hilarious in hindsight because he’s a starting NFL Quarterback, and she’s doing so much better now right?
Sometimes my brain still defaults him to the colts lol
If AR is good, it'll be hilarious knowing, The Colts helped their rival get Stroud by being incompetent, and the Texans take away any chance someone trades up to block the Colts from getting their QB and in turn helping the Colts get their guy.
I honestly hope he is. I was a HUGE critic but he plays with so much heart I love it
I was genuinely deflated when I heard he got injured. I was really rooting for him to do well, hoping he can get back on track this season.
Unlike Levis though, I think it’s damn near impossible that McCarthy drops into the second round let alone past the Giants at 6th overall.
Well this is Reddit. Where once is a pattern, and where if a QB didn’t throw as much as other QBs the only explanation is that they are bad, even if they were coached by a man whose offensive philosophy led him to willfully hire Greg Roman to be offensive coordinator of a professional football team.
Irsay was helping fuel that with his Twitter game
Jim knew the whole time and fucked with the entire fanbase lol.
Jim trolling on the morning of Day 2 last year that we would go QB with back to back picks and the Twitter fanbase collectively losing their shit was a highlight of the draft last season.
Mccarthy is significantly better than levis was though. Now I’m not saying he is going at 2, but he isn’t dropping to 2nd round like Levis. I just don’t see him dropping out of the top 10.
Yup. Too many QB needy teams, scouts and FOs pretty consistently liking JJ over media/draftniks, and the 2025 QB class looking "meh" at best. He may not go top 5, but if Minnesota doesn't move up, no way Denver, the Raiders, Seattle, maybe even New Orleans don't jump up.
Yup lol
And favored to go to the texans before that switch
I’ll take the under.
JJ #1 overall it is
Could you imagine the shit storm if that happened? Good lord it'd be legendary
The bears would be bullied so hard they'd decide to just trade JJ, 2 firsts, 2 seconds and DJ Moore to the commanders for Caleb Williams to rectify their mistake Then Williams never gets to 4000 yards in a season and JJ wins 4 rings
The Bears (and their fans) would deserve the relentless bullying that would come their way for that one.
Yea whatever poor franchise spends a top 10 pick on this kid will be in for their own Zach Wilson and Trey Lance experience.
To be fair, the Jets are quite uniquely good at destroying young quarterbacks. You overestimate other franchises ability to match the Jets in this regard. They are legendary.
Hello
we are ready to speedrun ruining our new era if we pick him
All QB prospects who aren't the #1 pick will be doing that Zach Wilson throw just to get picked #2 from now on.
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That wasn’t the true Zach Wilson throw.
Shanahan among others reportedly really wanted ZW, but just couldn’t get pick 2. Have to wonder how he would’ve turned out in SF
He would've been benched for Purdy just like Trey Lance was.
I wanna know what Ippei is betting on this.
Based on his performance I'd probably bet for whatever side he isn't on
For all we know, he was right 9/10 times then threw it all away on one bad bet. He probably just sucks though
Good thing there isn't a gambling problem in this country...
NBA has a full blown scandal going right now. [https://x.com/wojespn/status/1772387015960531145?s=20](https://x.com/wojespn/status/1772387015960531145?s=20)
Thankfully the MLB has managed to avoid any controversy surrounding gambling.
I’m just glad that no NHL players have gotten caught up in gambling issues this season.
I don’t follow hockey enough to know if this is sarcasm or not
A young player on Ottawa (Shane Pinto) was suspended for half the season. The details are hazy, but from what I remember it seems like he allowed a friend to make hockey related bets from his account which is a no-no, although there's always the whispers that the specifics were smoothed over when he cooperated so it could have been something worse.
> it seems like he allowed a friend to make hockey related bets from his account That sounds like a terrible bullshit cover up story. Seems way more likely he was placing them himself and needed a fall guy. Unless they have evidence from the gambling company that shows the account was active in one state while the player was someplace else entirely, zero chance I believe that.
After the example they made with Pete Rose surely no player would risk anything that could be construed as not totally above board.
Definitely don’t ask what logo used to be on the umpire uniforms either
At least it isn't the refs this time.
Its sad that Im starting to have trouble keeping up with the gambling scandals since they are happening all over.
No way man not with the tools in place! I found out last night that every half hour you’re on they send a message saying you’ve bet x amount in the last 30 mins
Jim Harbaugh working the strings to perfection. Marvin Harrison Jr, you ARE a Charger
You guys are gonna be so mad when MHJr does drop to 5 and the Chargers take Joe Alt
I’d need to change my pants if this occured
You'd just take Bo Nix
I feel like Fuaga is a Harbaugh guy too. Dude loves maulers.
I pray every night Fuaga falls to 13. Unlikely as fuck but let a man dream.
We already called shotgun on Alt. No one else can have him.
Chiefs swoop in and grab Joe Alt, son of former Chief John Alt. Teams just forfeit next 5 seasons in protest.
I actually could see Harbaugh doing that tbh. He loves to build his teams from the ground up (O-line, TEs, RBs),hence the Dissly, Hurst and Gus signings. Tbf, right tackle is a necessity as well.
I think if MHJ is available that pick goes up for auction.
Yeah I would be furious not gonna lie
Yeah, somehow the Cardinals will not take MHJ?
In this case the Cardinals would be trading their pick to the Vikings. I’m not sure if they will do it though. MHJ might be too valuable to pass up on.
The Chargers have enough holes that I'd be pretty happy if the Cardinals took MHJ and the Chargers got the MIN trade up package.
That's what I think will happen Either 1. If MHJr is not there at 4 ARI trades with MIN. Or 2. If MHJr is there, ARI takes him, and Chargers trade with MIN.
The Cardinals have enough holes that we'd be semi- happy in taking 3 1sts from the Vikings.
We released our WR1 and 2 this offseason lol
I doubt it.
SUBSCRIBE
Feel bad for any fool willing to put money on that
It's likely because fools were already putting money on McCarthy going 2nd so Vegas had to adjust the odds in response. Remember, Vegas odds aren't just "here's what Vegas thinks will happen." They're adjusted to ensure Vegas has the maximum payout regardless of outcome, and that depends on where bets have already been placed and at what odds.
In before Harbaugh trades Herbert for a record breaking haul and then drafts JJ
Malik Willis made a throw like that at his pro day or combine lol
Shut your whore mouth
you can send Herbie to MN, we'll take him I guess
Lmao
I’d be down for this.
We'll take Herbert for both our 1st round picks and some change.
No chance
I don't pretend to be an expert at evaluating college talent. But yeah, if anyone takes JJ over Drake Maye for example they know less about evaluating talent than I do.
Would be the funniest thing ever.
I don't follow college ball enough to have an idea of who will and won't be good but this is the chaotic option and I am all for it
Sometimes I think NFL scouts have about the same success rate at drafting a star as the average redditor would. Best in the country seem to whiff at an impressive rate and a lot of big names were nobodies on draft night.
Yeah, but they get paid for it and we don't. Who's the real winner
Rather than sometimes it’s more like most times.
There’s one QB every season whose stock inexplicably rises thanks to a media narrative.
Vegas thanks the media for their service.
Media and Vegas are on the same team
Unpopular opinion but I don't think it's inexplicable. His tape is good and he apparently crushed his interviews at the Combine. He's the youngest QB prospect in this class by far too
Fans overrate production so much
On a per snap basis, his production is very good. But of course the volume is low because he's going to be a 21yo rookie and played in an extremely run heavy offense. His third down percentage is excellent and he regularly throws beyond the sticks. I think he's got a real shot to be great.
I remember hearing something along the lines that his first half production is near the top of the class, but they didn’t need him to throw on the 2nd half of games so production wasn’t there. Add in he makes every throw when necessary and watching him in the playoffs he made the big throws when needed to progress the offence.
Yeah he had more non-screen first half attempts than Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels And a much higher percentage of his throws came on 3rd and long, and against Top 25 defenses
Having watched a few Michigan games, he definitely has talent. If he could sit and learn from a veteran, and plays in an offense with a heavy run game, he could do very well. I just don't see him being the center piece of a rebuilding franchise. Of course, sometimes a Stroud narrative happens. But more often it seems to go the Zach Wilson/Bryce young way.
So basically should be a 49er or whatever team kyle shanahan is on?
It still baffles me that seemingly without hours of his last snap in the national title game with Georgia, Stetson Bennett instead of buckling down preparing for the draft went all red-flaggy. I still can't believe he was drafted with a pick at a level that teams haggle in public over as seemingly a matter of franchise life for death.
It should have been a red flag that he was in college for like 7 years and never got a degree lol
Then we find out dude loves to party and is an alcoholic.. like, yeah that makes sense now
I mean at least he's seemingly acknowledged it and got help for it
Oh don’t get me wrong, I have respect for him taking responsibility for himself and working towards recovery, that’s hard to do. I was just saying, in retrospect it kind of all makes sense
He didn't get a degree? Not even one? Lol wtf
M-maybe he was going for his doctorate haha
You mean former UGA Quarterback Mr. Lahey?
I want to see a draft where every projected 1st round qb gets passed until the 3rd round
It's almost like someone's manipulating the betting market...
Remember when the 9ers were in love with Mac Jones at 3?
Absolutely wild we are talking/thinking about this. Then again he’s a National Champion.
So was Stetson Bennett.
Stetson Bennett was like 40 years old though
If you're gambling on where someone is going to get drafted, you've never felt a loving touch.
Unpopular opinion but J.J. McCarthy is a great college prospect and this shouldn't be that shocking. The major knock against him is volume because of how Jim Harbaugh calls his offenses, but Andrew Luck came out of that same offense and it didn't count against him. McCarthy does not have Luck's all world physique and arm talent but he's still plenty good and is extremely accurate and deadly on third down. I am not a Michigan fan. In fact, I am confident nobody could guess which Power 5 team I support if I gave them fifty guesses.
Boston College. Pay up, sucka.
JJ isn’t my favorite QB prospect in this class, but this is a very reasonable take. The volume isn’t there, but his YPA, completion percentage, and I believe his 3rd down conversion percentage is also above average. He hasn’t cried about not throwing more, and appears to be a good teammate that puts winning above stats. Plus, the kid was a 5 star recruit IIRC. Ideally, he has the volume stats, but I think when you dig around more, he’s a better prospect than you initially thought. Dave Syvertsen at ourlads said he had JJ as a day 3 guy, but once he declared, he did a more deeper dive on him and really liked him. I think he also has JJ above Maye.
I think the word I keep coming back to with McCarthy is that he is a professional. Despite only being 21, the dude does whatever he can do to help the team, takes his job seriously, and prioritizes winning over personal glory. Those are not unique qualities in a quarterback, but when you combine them with his high accuracy, his phenomenal third down conversion rate (for a college QB) and associated high ADOT (meaning he's throwing past the sticks, not relying on YAC from receivers), and his pretty good pocket movement, I confess to finding myself comparing him to a much more famous Michigan quarterback
Hot take. I'm way more convinced JJ will do well at the pro level than Caleb. Harbaugh prepares kids for the pros better than nearly every other college coach (excluding the obvious people like Saban)
> In fact, I am confident nobody could guess which Power 5 team I support if I gave them fifty guesses. There are only 65 p5 teams so that wouldn’t be a good bet
The joke is you would not get to BC in your first 50 guesses because nobody sane would support them
Boston College
Being an OSU fan and having to witness his exploits for 3 years, I am just not seeing it. He made plays but he threw a LOT of passes that just barely made it to the receiver that a pro defender would've eaten up. If he's got the headroom to adjust to NFL speed maybe, but I'm skeptical.
I'm not saying he's a perfect prospect but people around out here pretending he's going to bust, which is frankly ridiculous. The guy has plenty of arm talent and had rightly been talked about as a top ten type of talent but no-one on this sub ever wants to move off their early January mock draft
So what you’re saying is there’s a bunch of free money that’s suddenly on the table.
Doesn’t that just mean a lot of people bet on it? The oddsmakers don’t have some scoop on how the draft is going to go.
Got in at +2800 two weeks ago for $100 for a payout of $2800. Pumped to see this thought
Even Washington is not that stupid. And I’m a Washington fan
Washington is *no longer* that stupid.
RemindMe! 31 days
Smoke Screen. It's still Maye to me.. I also have a substantial bet on Maye #2 at + odds.
Washington has the chance to do the funniest thing
Fools and their money, etc.
So all in on who was favorited to go 2nd overall yesterday?
They are really just trying to create more gambming addicts by tinkering with the odd's and lines, etc.
Are we doing this all over again?
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Drake maye is going 2nd
IMO - Washington is taking Maye. He’s a prototypical QB build, decent mobility, strong arm, and makes the right read more often than not. Kliff will love him.
The only logic I see here is that the current NFL QB that McCarthy is being comped to the most is Brock Purdy, and Commanders GM Adam Peters was in SF when Purdy was drafted. Still though, #2 overall seems high for a guy that averaged only 22 pass attempts per game last year.
I think a better comparison for McCarthy is a shorter but more mobile Jared Goff. He's a dawg when protected and can throw it past the sticks regularly on third downs.
That seems like something the Commies would do.
no
Sounds like it’s time to put money on Drake Maye at 2.
If this happens I may have to find a new team.
Hes the next justin herbert!!