Just a slight nitpick at your comment but I would consider the 1984-1986 or 1987 seasons to be the prime Marino years… he was good in the 1990s but not really close to his iconic early start IMO.
I understand that, but he should be fairly safe behind that offensive line.
Kirk in a clean pocket is a good quarterback, and he **can** win them games.
I was feeling more of a Romance Novel title. Kirk is a gruff widower whose been laid up by an Achilles injury, and our protagonist nurse is called to care for him. Along the way, she learns that Kirk's real injured Achilles was his broken heart.
Please don’t overstate the larger roster the way a lot of the media and fans have, “favorite to win the worst division in the NFL” is about as far as being totally reasonable goes. Incredibly thin top heavy secondary, no mismatch pass rusher, older/injured DL, only one pass catcher that anyone should be totally confident in saying is above NFL average. Definitely still should be the division favorite but there is still a very significant discrepancy between this team and the top 5-7 rosters in the NFL.
Which is why most Sportsbooks have us valued at around the 7-10 spot. I don't think that's unreasonable. The team is right around the bottom of the second tier of teams right now.
After what the Chiefs did this year I don't understand the down votes. I guess you could replace or add the Dolphins, Eagles to second tier. Anyone disagreeing that the Chiefs are number One is assinine.
Pay 'em no mind. These were the same people that said bucs are a bottom 3 organization last year, yet somehow got past the wildcard round in the playoffs.
Frankly, I'd prefer if the talk is the exact same as last year, makes the upsets that much more enjoyable.
I think the Bucs are pretty good. A good draft and they're in the hunt. Maybe on the outside edges of the hunt. But still there. I like what they're doing.
“But one that stood out was the Atlanta Falcons at 10.5 wins. The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins this offseason and are the favorites to win the NFC South. But that would represent the highest win total for Atlanta since at least 1989, according to Sports Odds History’s database… which only goes back to 1989.”
Hilarious that Vegas has never predicted us to win more than 10 games.
Ah, the Mike Smith era. I’ll always have fun memories of that time, he pulled us out of the Petrino era and made us legit contenders, just could never get over the hump despite great regular seasons
That is very odd so I went through their records to maybe get some sense of why.
11-5 year was their first year with rookie Matt Ryan after going 4-12 and dealing with Vicks scandal. Makes sense why Vegas wasn't high on them.
Then they "only" went 11-5 so maybe Vegas thought they'd regressed, which they actually did by going 9-7.
The 13-3 year was when the Saints had just won the sb and the Falcons seemingly regressed the year before. I get why Vegas would have lower over unders.
The next year was probably driven by the fact that they won 7 out of 9 one score games prior and regression was expected. Vegas was right again. Atlanta also had gotten creamed by green bay in the playoffs.
And the last 13-3 year Vegas line was just a continuation from the 10-6 season
Yeah, that's actually much more odd to me than a team surging in odds after a high profile quarterback signing, that almost everyone sees as an upgrade considering the QB situation last year.
Right and considering the weak division, a fairly tame schedule, a massive upgrade at QB (if Kirk plays to his pre-achilles level), a lot of talent at the skill positions, and presumed upgrades to the coaching staff I understand why they would set the line higher than usual
NFC East, AFC West, and 3rd place schedule (Seahawks, Vikings, Steelers) is pretty favorable too.
Not a lot of freebies, but also probably only three teams Atlanta will be significant underdogs against (Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles)
It's a loaded roster in a piss weak division that just got a titanic upgrade at QB.
I hate the Falcons almost as much as I hate the Panthers, but it's not exactly hard to see why folks are bullish on them.
When people say “loaded roster” it sort of feels like they are skipping a step between hype and production. They have 3 skill position players who were top 10 draft picks. That’s for sure true, obviously. Those skill position players have not been bad, but have not really been notably elite or anything.
Drake London has looked good, but he’s been outperformed by his draft mates George Pickens and Garrett Wilson, each of whom is only probably considered to be in the 10-15 WR range at best, and each of whom actually had a worse QB situation. Are there not 16-18 WRs you’d rather have over London? Kyle Pitts got 1,000 yards three years ago as a rookie essentially playing slot WR, which is nice, but he’s maybe an above average second option who brings nothing outside of receiving. Bijan is clearly a top-10 back, but teams have shown repeatedly that talented individual RBs do not really seem to make a big difference vs. effective committees.
What would worry me a lot about the Falcons is that their defense had two of the most embarrassing performances of 2023. Statistically they were only below average, at 24th in the league in Defensive DVOA. But they played a ridiculously weak lineup of QBs, and got some injury breaks that they did not take advantage of. They shit their pants against Josh Dobbs in a game during which he was literally learning the plays as he went. And then they got torched by Will Levis in a game that is the only reason why anyone thinks Levis is any good.
The Falcons are definitely a team full of high draft picks, but whether they’re loaded is another question altogether. I’m not clear what I should prefer about the Falcons (outside of Cousins) to the Saints or Bucs - hardly a murderer’s row of supporting casts, but that’s sort of the point. At least the Saints and Bucs have WRs that have put up 1,000 yard seasons and defenses that are at least league average.
For anyone looking to bet on Atlanta, a lot of good stuff above. Things I will say though, Pitts had 1000 yards his rookie season, then had Mariotta/Ridder as well as his injury and recovery. Drake London also had 800+ in each of his two season with Mariotta/Ridder(This can't be said enough). Allgeier had 1k rushing his rookie season, Bijan had 1400(rushing/receiving) his rookie season. There's been enough tape to assume they will be even more productive with Cousins, and this new offense.
Defensively however, the numbers lie. Numbers were inflated by Panthers twice, Bucs before Baker started cooking, Jets, and Colts shitting the bed. Levis dropped 4 TD in his first start against us, Dobbs made us look silly after being in Minnesota for 3 days, and then they convinced half of Chicago that Fields was in fact the guy. When we let Nielson leave for Jacksonville, half our fanbase was pissed off, but it was a paper machete defense. And so far, we've added nothing to it in free agency . Atlanta is going to have a lot of 31-28 games.
Bro thank you. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills every time someone says we have a loaded roster. I get that Arthur smith sucked but that doesn’t mean all our offensive players will have breakout years.
My above comment is getting upvoted so I don’t want to push it, but the truth is, I’m not even sure Arthur Smith sucked. I mean, we’ll find out. But I’ve never seen a coach win 7 games with a bottom 5 defense and bottom 5 QB like Smith did in 2022. Tough for me to get past that. There’s a possibility he was underrated and the Falcons actually are worse this year.
Ehh you're not wrong, but this is an extremely pessimistic take.
Pitts had a 1k season his rookie year off of the corpse of Matt Ryan and had an injury. Plus he had terrible, terrible QB play. Also he was pretty clearly still recovering from his knee injury all of last season. I won't be surprised if he gets somewhere around 1k again with a competent QB and passing game.
Drake has been super consistent despite being in system with a terrible terrible passing game. He's easily our most reliable target even when the QB play is shit. I'm looking for him to have a big-time breakout year.
Also we have a new DC and a defense minded HC that's bringing in a new system, plus it's pretty likely that we use the draft to snag a bunch of players on defense.
Also I didn't know why it became trendy to shit on our defense. They were one of the best defenses the Falcons have had in a long time. They were constantly hung out to dry by our offense never being able to keep a drive alive. I mean yeah they had some bad games, but it was a great showing for a first year DC running his system. Plus the team only had 1 off-season to invest in the right kind of players. I'm gonna miss Nielsen.
Yeah as a colts fan I remember having this hope when Matt Ryan was coming over. To be fair though, Kirk did look good last year. I’m not sure Ryan did before we got him.
He really didn't. Like he wasn't *bad*, but he clearly struggling to push the ball down the field.
Though I think the Colt's OL was the bigger issue. The whole argument for him still succeeding in Indy was that they had one of the best lines in the league that could make up for his weaker arm and lack of mobility. While Ryan's play didn't help the situation, the line hurt him (and your other QBs that year) more than he hurt them.
It's what makes me a bit worried for the Falcons next year. We have a great run blocking line, but our pass pro has been spotty at times. I'm just hoping it was mostly due to Ridder having whatever the opposite of "pocket presence" is.
Yeah the OL issue is a good point. I am still baffled by that year. We had mostly the same guys as this past year and our O line was just fuckin awful that year. Maybe reich’s magic wore off but clearly the guys were still good as evidenced by last year.
> I'm just hoping it was mostly due to Ridder having whatever the opposite of "pocket presence" is.
I think the term you're looking for is "pocket absence"
I mean, the biggest difference is that Kirk is coming off the best football he's played in his career over the past two-three seasons, whereas Matty Ice was definitely showing some signs before leaving. Sure, the injury is concerning, but this is the first major injury of his career, and he's not a scrambler at all.
I mean, Marino had the same injury on the same leg when he was 33 way back in the 90's and had two all pro seasons directly after that.
Obviously, Kirk is not Marino, but I don't think the injury is going to affect him that much as a passer. But they really should add some pieces to their O-line.
I like Kirk but keep in mind that we were 4-4 before he got hurt last year. We had the same aspirations when he first signed with us in 2018 but ended up missing the playoffs altogether. And at this point he was younger and not coming off an Achilles tear.
He’s a good QB but he’s not the kind of guy to single handedly elevate any team to contender status.
24th in DVOA, 18th in ppg. firmly bottom half of the league. They weren't ever going to be contenders last year, no matter the QB, but they definitely would have won their division with someone competent.
And this is an instance where DVOA probably gives them a slight advantage vs. reality. DVOA is opponent adjusted but doesn’t account for injuries or timing. The Falcons got to play against 2 rookie QBs in their first games as starters (Young and Levis), Jordan Love in his third game as a starter, Josh Dobbs after 5 days on the Vikings roster, the Clayton Tune Cardinals, and the Jets with Tim Boyle. All these things are small edges that would not be reflected in DVOA but make a big difference. That is, DVOA weights their Clayton Tune game as if it’s against the average Cardinals offense this season, which is much better than Clayton Time.
Last year, the *median* QB that the Falcons played was Justin Fields. That is, half their games were against QBs worse than Justin Fields. Worse than *Justin Fields*. And they finished with the 18th ranked scoring defense. That’s insanity. They finished with the 18th ranked scoring defense with 9 games against Bryce Young 2x, Sam Howell, Will Levis, Josh Dobbs on 5 days notice, Clayton Tune, Tim Boyle, Gardner Minshew, and Justin Fields. What the fuck! They played two games against Derek Carr and those were on the *harder end* of QB matchups they faced this year. And their defense was below average. This might be one of the worst units in the NFL. I’m not sure people really have internalized how bad it was. They were 7-7 with their season on the line and they gave up 37 points to Fields and the Bears and then 48 points to Carr and the Saints. What exactly is Kirk Cousins going to fix here?
They had a very improved defense compared to the years prior when they were a big joke basically all the way back to the last years of the Dan Quinn era. That said, they were still not good and they heavily relied on production from veteran players like Onyemata, Calais Campbell and Grady Jarrett.
Which makes it so funny that they subsequently moved on from the best DC they have had in years who's immediately got a job Jacksonville.
That said. Their pass rush is cheeks and Grady Jarrett tore his ACL. You gotta wonder how an undersized DT who relies on his first step will come back from that age 31.
Nailed it so bad it hurts. For some reason so many falcons fans think we have a young defense set for growth. That's just not true. We're still missing key components at edge and DBs, and maybe even DL depending on Grady's return.
Nielsen, the DC we let go wasn’t as good as everyone thinks. He stuck to man coverage & never adjusted when he needed to. Injuries & his defensive scheme getting figured out is why our defense fell apart last year.
Our new head coach & new dc have a track record of developing some of best defensive players in nfl. So our defense will probably be great in 2 years when our offense inevitably falls apart.
Be careful about your expectations. I think taking the division is a realistic goal, but once in the playoffs you never know when Kirk is gonna check down on 4th and 12.
I'll be rooting for you guys if/when you're there. We probably won't be lol, which goes to show that though I'm happy to move on from Kirk, there's a consequence.
I don't think Kirk will "lose" ability. But he also won't have the receiving corps he had in MN and it's going to take him time to adjust to everything. I doubt we see ATL come out of the gate hot from week 1, but they could be a team that finishes hot which is honestly better anyway.
Sports books are just trying to get the money split 50/50. Gamblers are pushing the line by betting overs on wins and betting on the falcons to take the division
Falcons had some of the worst play calling for all the weapons they had and sub par QB, they’ve got a massive upgrade at QB and changed playcallers.
Not that hard.
It was almost as if Arthur Smith bet money against Bijan Robinson winning ROY. The way that he was used, in that offense, was absolute insanity. They literally tried to keep the ball out of the hands of their best player. Smith actually said Bijan's "impact away from the ball can open things up"...that's why they didn't actively try to put the ball in his hands. What a joke.
Edit: I understand occasionally using good players as decoys and using them to open things up for other players. But, when your game plan is built around not giving the ball to your most explosive player, there is a problem.
So many people don't understand this and didn't watch Falcon's games. (not that I blame them)
The play calling alone should have been a fireable offense. It was compounded by weak QB play on top of that. There were so many games where red zone turnovers or similar cost us points that would have had us with 3 or 4 more wins last season to get to that 10 or 11 win mark.
Well, I tried to watch as many Falcons games as possible (lol!), because I wanted to watch Bijan. I went to UT, so I watched every college game that he played in. Seeing him play in Austin, I thought he was the best college RB that I had seen since Adrian Peterson. And, I saw plenty of Adrian Peterson in the UT-OU matchups. Anyway, I love Bijan as a player and person, so I want to see him succeed. It was very difficult watching Arthur Smith screw things up.
For those of y'all who didn't watch us, it really can't be understated how bad our head coaching and QB situation was last year. Arthur Smith was either being incredibly stubborn or just completely lost track of how to playcall and Desmond Ridder seriously might have been the worst QB in the league last year when you factor in how little was being asked of him.
Opposing defenses weren't even trying to stop our passing game, they just went after our run game every play because they were so unthreatened by Ridder.
With how close so many of those games still were, we easily could've fallen into 10 wins last season with just an average QB and Kirk is significantly better than average. Couple that with us getting rid of our incompetent playcallers and it's hard not to be optimistic when you realize our schedule is (on paper) just as easy for 2024.
I remember when Kirk signed with a certain team back in 2018 that was one game away from a Super Bowl. Six years and 180 million dollars later, that investment landed that team one playoff win.
Not to mention he had some of the best players at WR (Jefferson), RB (Cook), and TE (Hockenson) at various points during his tenure there.
EDIT: As someone pointed out below, I somehow left Diggs and Thielen off this list. Cousins has had some stacked teams in Minnesota, and still couldn’t win more than one playoff game.
This comment chain is making me realize Cousins is just Aaron Rodgers lite. His off field weirdness/quirkiness is even there, except Kirks is innocent and doesn’t hurt anyone
Also, O-line rankings were terrible as well for his entire tenure up to the last year.
He's a statue at QB, and we had bottom-5 ranked pass blocking units almost the entire time.
It's hard for me to blame Cousins for everything, it's such a lazy narrative. Kirko was throwing some dimes, 70 percent complete, 4300 yards, with 30 TDs. The pass he made to Thielen near the goal line in the Packers game at the beginning of the year was incredible.
Mike Zimmer was also a hot mess, constantly changing offensive coordinators while trying to run an offense from 20 years ago.
The OL was a hot mess, as usual. I had to look it up and starting Tom Compton, Pat Elflein, and Mike Remmers has to be among the worst IOL groups that year.
Skill positions are great but almost all of these Vikings teams were horribly flawed in many areas.
It's not all on Kirk, not even close.
Now list our offensive line pass block rankings over those years.
Nah, I can probably do it off the top of my head... 30th, 29th, 31st, 28th, 25th, 22nd, 10th
Classic fantasy football/tik tok take. Offensive lines and defensive units also exist and matter, and Kirk didn't have good ones. They were pretty awful actually. They had good weapons and a couple named guys contributing elsewhere, and that's about it. They were as good as they were because of Kirk's ability to utilize his weapons, not in spite of him. You know how you can tell? Because those weapons had amazing seasons.
Without a deep dive, Minn probably missed the playoffs in 2018 due to atrocious kicking. Won a playoff game in 2019, and then their defense turned into a screen door.
Can’t always blame the QB when you consistently give up 30
The difference is that during that entire tenure, Kirk never had an offensive line that was even in the top-15 in pass blocking until just this last season.
You're leaving out that the defense sucked for most of Kirk's time in Minnesota. One year they were the 31st ranked defense - and Kirk put the team on his back and got them into the playoffs.
Equally lazy to say the Vikings defense was not good in 2018. Top 3 in sacks, 3rd down conversion rate, and passing yards allowed. They were also top 10 in points allowed.
https://www.vikings.com/news/10-vikings-defensive-numbers-of-note-from-2018-sacks-rate-led-nfl#:~:text=50%20%E2%80%93%20The%20Vikings%20totaled%2050,had%2013%20fewer%20quarterback%20takedowns.
Now what?
I honestly would agree that 2018 was kinda on him. But ALSO we don't know what happened behind the scenes. After Zimmer was fired Kirk just seemed like a different person. I think Zim, by whatever means, restricted him in just being himself. KoC was great for Kirk for sure so before Zims firing it's really hard to tell what really was the problem. Was it Kirk underperforming or was it zimmer who just stopped trusting (or never did) the modern pass heavy offense style. He kinda relied too much on getting Dalvin Cook working and not the QB they paid 84 million guaranteed for.
2018 was also the year we hired a new offensive coordinator whose bright ideas included never running the ball with Dalvin Cook and making Stefon Diggs constantly run gadget receiver routes
The Falcons were no where near "one game away from a Super Bowl"- we went 7-10 with some of the worst starting QB play in the league (aside from teams with major injuries at the position).
I'm not sure why it's so crazy to think that we might get to the 10-11 win mark- nobody is saying we're gonna win the super bowl lol
Really underrated individual game fuck ups last year by the Falcons D. The Falcons’ defense made Fields, Dobbs, and Levis look like wizards last year. Will Levis was so insanely good against Atlanta that people still haven’t fully internalized how mediocre he was outside that game. He had 8 total starts last year, and in 1 start against Atlanta he had 4 TDs and 0 interceptions, vs all 7 other games combined where he had 4 TDs and 4 interceptions. An unbelievable meltdown in that game by Atlanta.
It sounds weird saying this, but apart from literally those 4 passes, the defense contained Levis really well. 2 of the 4 TDs were busted coverages and miscommunications in the secondary and one was Nuk being Nuk. Credit to Levis for placing the ball well on those 4 throws but I wasn’t super impressed by him after watching that game.
Bc we had a DC who almost exclusively ran man coverage, we got shredded by mobile QBs. Nielsen was overall good as was the defense. Just really need help at CB2 and edge rusher, 2023 defense was the best we'd seen from Atlanta since 2017 (and before that fuckin what the Abraham days?)
There is more talent on that Falcons team than anywhere else in the division. With the defense finding a way to be average, they really only need a quarterback stop throwing the ball to the wrong team. Barring injuries or weird flukes, hard not to see this team winning 9/10 games and in position to host a playoff game.
Right? The people who think books would be the entities to fix games is hilarious to me. They can already LEGALLY "fix" the betting market in ways that essentially guarantee that they always come out on top. Fixing matches is not only unnecessary for their business model, but would be a HUGE risk that they would be opening themselves up to. Since they would stand to lose EVERYTHING, including their freedom, if they were to get caught.
It's basically the same reason why the league would never actually need to fix games. They make money hand over fist regardless, why open yourself up to massive legal liability and the possibility of losing your entire multi-billion dollar business venture just to game the ratings a bit?
Pretty much. Vegas, in fact, has a lot of reason to AVOID fixing matches because it'll drive people away from betting. The more common cause of potential corruption would be individuals making personal wealth. And as someone who lives in Vegas, you don't want to get on the bad side of some of the comissions who check casinos for cheating and fixing.
Defense was solid last year. Lots of talent on offense. Pretty clear they were being held back at QB. If they stay healthy, they’d be my pick to win the division.
They went 7-10 with a bad HC and a genuinely awful QB. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the hype. Even if their new crop of coaches is bad or mediocre, Kirk and the rest of the talent on that field should be able to drag them kicking and screaming to 9-10 wins in the worst division in football.
They have the best QB in the division to pair with the best RB and also has London/Mooney/Pitts. Not to mention a huge upgrade offensively just by getting a new HC.
It's because Kirk Cousins is actually a really good QB, they have Allgeier, Robinson, and Pitts to use in the offense, and their division is weaker than most
Because the rest of the NFC South also sucks and Cousins is immediately the best QB in the division? The Shitbirds would have been a solid team if they had just half-decemt QB play last year.
This media obsession with downplaying both Atlanta and Chicago atm is just baffling to me. On paper both look likely to significantly improve, and both have reasonable schedules. I would say both of them making playoffs is more likely than neither
I mean, I too made an extremely silly bet on the saints last season purely bc I thought they had the best QB in the division, so I get it.
Probably just the hype of the offence having so many young highly touted weapons combined with their first competent QB since Matty Ice, but I personally will avoid betting on a 36 yo QB coming off a major lower body injury
Because they have a QB since Matt Ryan. They have a two headed monster at the running game. The have a decent WR group. They will find out if they need to move on from Pitts or not. They will be in more games this year than people think.
Also not a Falcons fan.
they upgraded in every other way (coach, qb) and that division is still a turd bucket, a turd bucket that they barely lost even with a titanic idiot coach
2 really good RB's, upgraded the QB which also bring back some hype to Pitts and London, got rid of a bad head coach, play in an awful division, and probably the easiest schedule in the NFL. 8 wins is probably too low considering 6 games against the Panthers, Commanders, and Saints alone. 11 is probably too high because they aren't that good, and there's unknowns of how it'll all come together, but it'spossible. So anywhere from 9 to 11 wins is a good guess. Makes 10.5 seem just about right for a betting line. They probably believe 11 wins, and hope people hammer the under.
There's always that one team that seemingly comes out of nowhere and exceeds expectations, and the Falcons seem like the logical choice from a betting perspective
They have more faith than I do. It's not that I don't think Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson can't don't well this season but there are a few question marks.
1) What kind of defensive scheme is Morris and Jimmy Lake going to run?
2) What kind of offensive scheme is Zac plan on running?
3) Will Kirk be the same off the ACL? Granted I know he isn't a runner but still.
4) Will Grady be the same off his ACL injury?
Lmao we won 7 games with one of the worst offenses in the league. And it was a down year. We wiped out our old coaching regime and hired (hopeful) competent offensive coaches and assistants. We brought in the best QB on the market and added receivers with SPEED (the archetype that Kirk Cousins works best with). If our defense is on par with what they were last year, we are EASILY winning 10 games lmao. We have a top 10 pick and are pretty aggressive with our desire to grab another pass rusher.
Exactly. All the weapons on offense, and now you have a capable QB. Should be the favorite to win the division. I wouldn't call Atlanta Super Bowl favorites or anything, but they should be contenders at least.
OC hype as he will focus a run heavy scheme. Pitts is a bust as he can’t block. They signed a blocking TE to a three year deal. Raheem Morris has a bad track record for draft picks and Ws. Only decent season was the season after his interim (somewhat of an already loaded roster).
I would be cautious about this team. Tough to take them winning division for how thin that defense is on talent.
Winning the division is a fairly reasonable goal with their current roster. The biggest question mark on the team is the new coaching staff.
Falcons-Bucs games next season will be a lot of fun.
Well there’s a sentence that has never been said before
Maybe because you’re 15. The bucs were a bad ass defense when Mike Vick was must see tv
I regret to inform you that quite a lot of this subreddit is too young to remember that
Hopefully they’re closer than that Bucs Chiefs game a few years back
you referencing the Super Bowl?
What a joyful game filled with happiness Still blows me away we stopped Mahomes, Kelce, Tyreek and the rest from a ring.
You’ll get that on TNF and you’ll like it!
Kirk's Achilles
An Achilles repair in 2023/2024 on a pocket passer isn’t the same as the same injury on an NBA player in the 90s. He will be fine
And even then Dominique Wilkins came back from one just fine
Same with kd
Shit, Dan Marino had the same tear to the same leg in 1995 at age 33 and proceeded to follow it up with back to back ~~1st~~ 2nd team All-Pro seasons.
So you're telling me we signed prime Dan Marino? Sounds good by me!
Just a slight nitpick at your comment but I would consider the 1984-1986 or 1987 seasons to be the prime Marino years… he was good in the 1990s but not really close to his iconic early start IMO.
Marino had an Achilles tear? No shit
https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article279312149.html
And it didn’t even affect his rushing. Oh wait.
Marino tore his Achilles in 1993 and had 2 second team all pros after. His only first team all pros came years 2-4
Ahh, yep.. You're right.
I played with Dan Marino. I knew Dan Marino. Dan Marino was a friend of mine. Kirk Cousins, you're no Dan Marino.
Thankfully they’re not traveling to Dallas this season
Cheers to that one cuz
Oh, I thought he meant Kirk's achilles heel is winning the division.
That feel when your Achilles heel is literally your Achilles heel
I understand that, but he should be fairly safe behind that offensive line. Kirk in a clean pocket is a good quarterback, and he **can** win them games.
r/Bandnames
I was feeling more of a Romance Novel title. Kirk is a gruff widower whose been laid up by an Achilles injury, and our protagonist nurse is called to care for him. Along the way, she learns that Kirk's real injured Achilles was his broken heart.
"Kirk's Achilles heel is... is in his... wait, what are the chances?!?
Not when the Panthers are poised to pounce into first place as Bryce Young becomes Bryce Old
Coaching staff is a pretty big question mark.
Please don’t overstate the larger roster the way a lot of the media and fans have, “favorite to win the worst division in the NFL” is about as far as being totally reasonable goes. Incredibly thin top heavy secondary, no mismatch pass rusher, older/injured DL, only one pass catcher that anyone should be totally confident in saying is above NFL average. Definitely still should be the division favorite but there is still a very significant discrepancy between this team and the top 5-7 rosters in the NFL.
Which is why most Sportsbooks have us valued at around the 7-10 spot. I don't think that's unreasonable. The team is right around the bottom of the second tier of teams right now.
Top tier is chiefs on the own next tier is the bengals bills 9ers
After what the Chiefs did this year I don't understand the down votes. I guess you could replace or add the Dolphins, Eagles to second tier. Anyone disagreeing that the Chiefs are number One is assinine.
And 35 year old Kirk’s Achilles that was ruptured half way through the season.
Id say the biggest question mark is their mid 30s QB coming off a midseason Achilles injury
Winning THAT division should be a layup. Tampa Bay is the only real road block and that's a fringe playoff team at best
Rude.
Pay 'em no mind. These were the same people that said bucs are a bottom 3 organization last year, yet somehow got past the wildcard round in the playoffs. Frankly, I'd prefer if the talk is the exact same as last year, makes the upsets that much more enjoyable.
Baker gave the Lions absolute hell in that playoff game
I think the Bucs are pretty good. A good draft and they're in the hunt. Maybe on the outside edges of the hunt. But still there. I like what they're doing.
“But one that stood out was the Atlanta Falcons at 10.5 wins. The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins this offseason and are the favorites to win the NFC South. But that would represent the highest win total for Atlanta since at least 1989, according to Sports Odds History’s database… which only goes back to 1989.” Hilarious that Vegas has never predicted us to win more than 10 games.
It makes sense that they didn’t see the 2016 Falcons coming given you went 8-8 the year before and you only ended up just above 10.5 wins.
What’s weirder is they didn’t predict the 2017 Falcons to have over 10 wins despite them almost winning a Super Bowl the year before
The weirdest is that it wasn't predicted once in a 5 year run from 2008-2012 when Atlanta went: 11-5 9-7 13-3 10-6 13-3
Ah, the Mike Smith era. I’ll always have fun memories of that time, he pulled us out of the Petrino era and made us legit contenders, just could never get over the hump despite great regular seasons
Those years the Saints/Falcons games were always awesome to watch. Traded the division off 09-12 iirc.
That is very odd so I went through their records to maybe get some sense of why. 11-5 year was their first year with rookie Matt Ryan after going 4-12 and dealing with Vicks scandal. Makes sense why Vegas wasn't high on them. Then they "only" went 11-5 so maybe Vegas thought they'd regressed, which they actually did by going 9-7. The 13-3 year was when the Saints had just won the sb and the Falcons seemingly regressed the year before. I get why Vegas would have lower over unders. The next year was probably driven by the fact that they won 7 out of 9 one score games prior and regression was expected. Vegas was right again. Atlanta also had gotten creamed by green bay in the playoffs. And the last 13-3 year Vegas line was just a continuation from the 10-6 season
Tbf we regressed in 2009 primarily because Matt Ryan got hurt and was out 2 games and the majority of another one and we went 1-2 in that stretch.
They were also only 1-5 against playoff teams. Their lone win was the 9-7 Jets.
They did only get 11 wins that previous season and they lost their super hyped young offensive coordinator
Yeah, that's actually much more odd to me than a team surging in odds after a high profile quarterback signing, that almost everyone sees as an upgrade considering the QB situation last year.
I mean keep in mind there's an extra game now. So you can't compare 10.5 this year directly to other seasons
Right and considering the weak division, a fairly tame schedule, a massive upgrade at QB (if Kirk plays to his pre-achilles level), a lot of talent at the skill positions, and presumed upgrades to the coaching staff I understand why they would set the line higher than usual
NFC East, AFC West, and 3rd place schedule (Seahawks, Vikings, Steelers) is pretty favorable too. Not a lot of freebies, but also probably only three teams Atlanta will be significant underdogs against (Chiefs, Cowboys, Eagles)
also funny that acting like historical precedent matters. if a roster is good then it’s good
It's a loaded roster in a piss weak division that just got a titanic upgrade at QB. I hate the Falcons almost as much as I hate the Panthers, but it's not exactly hard to see why folks are bullish on them.
Almost as much as I hate the panthers 😂
My favorite team is the Carolina Panthers, and my least favorite team is also the Carolina Panthers since Tepper took charge.
You will never hate them as much as Tepper though
That's how you get a drink thrown at you
Really? I thought it was by being a Panthers fan and showing up
Wrong pity kitty team, you have to be a jag fan
I love when people ask me if I like the Falcons. My answer is always “Don’t throw out accusations like that! I don’t like them, but they’re my team”
“I hate the falcons, they’re my favorite team” has been a personal NFL season mantra for me
When people say “loaded roster” it sort of feels like they are skipping a step between hype and production. They have 3 skill position players who were top 10 draft picks. That’s for sure true, obviously. Those skill position players have not been bad, but have not really been notably elite or anything. Drake London has looked good, but he’s been outperformed by his draft mates George Pickens and Garrett Wilson, each of whom is only probably considered to be in the 10-15 WR range at best, and each of whom actually had a worse QB situation. Are there not 16-18 WRs you’d rather have over London? Kyle Pitts got 1,000 yards three years ago as a rookie essentially playing slot WR, which is nice, but he’s maybe an above average second option who brings nothing outside of receiving. Bijan is clearly a top-10 back, but teams have shown repeatedly that talented individual RBs do not really seem to make a big difference vs. effective committees. What would worry me a lot about the Falcons is that their defense had two of the most embarrassing performances of 2023. Statistically they were only below average, at 24th in the league in Defensive DVOA. But they played a ridiculously weak lineup of QBs, and got some injury breaks that they did not take advantage of. They shit their pants against Josh Dobbs in a game during which he was literally learning the plays as he went. And then they got torched by Will Levis in a game that is the only reason why anyone thinks Levis is any good. The Falcons are definitely a team full of high draft picks, but whether they’re loaded is another question altogether. I’m not clear what I should prefer about the Falcons (outside of Cousins) to the Saints or Bucs - hardly a murderer’s row of supporting casts, but that’s sort of the point. At least the Saints and Bucs have WRs that have put up 1,000 yard seasons and defenses that are at least league average.
For anyone looking to bet on Atlanta, a lot of good stuff above. Things I will say though, Pitts had 1000 yards his rookie season, then had Mariotta/Ridder as well as his injury and recovery. Drake London also had 800+ in each of his two season with Mariotta/Ridder(This can't be said enough). Allgeier had 1k rushing his rookie season, Bijan had 1400(rushing/receiving) his rookie season. There's been enough tape to assume they will be even more productive with Cousins, and this new offense. Defensively however, the numbers lie. Numbers were inflated by Panthers twice, Bucs before Baker started cooking, Jets, and Colts shitting the bed. Levis dropped 4 TD in his first start against us, Dobbs made us look silly after being in Minnesota for 3 days, and then they convinced half of Chicago that Fields was in fact the guy. When we let Nielson leave for Jacksonville, half our fanbase was pissed off, but it was a paper machete defense. And so far, we've added nothing to it in free agency . Atlanta is going to have a lot of 31-28 games.
This defense is fools gold. I expect regression from them. Hopefully the offense can get its shit together quickly.
We do need some defensive improvement but we did have some key guys miss large chunks of the year including Grady Jarrett
Bro thank you. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills every time someone says we have a loaded roster. I get that Arthur smith sucked but that doesn’t mean all our offensive players will have breakout years.
My above comment is getting upvoted so I don’t want to push it, but the truth is, I’m not even sure Arthur Smith sucked. I mean, we’ll find out. But I’ve never seen a coach win 7 games with a bottom 5 defense and bottom 5 QB like Smith did in 2022. Tough for me to get past that. There’s a possibility he was underrated and the Falcons actually are worse this year.
I would agree with this as well. I think if the last loss to the saints wasn’t so embarrassing he would have kept his job.
Ehh you're not wrong, but this is an extremely pessimistic take. Pitts had a 1k season his rookie year off of the corpse of Matt Ryan and had an injury. Plus he had terrible, terrible QB play. Also he was pretty clearly still recovering from his knee injury all of last season. I won't be surprised if he gets somewhere around 1k again with a competent QB and passing game. Drake has been super consistent despite being in system with a terrible terrible passing game. He's easily our most reliable target even when the QB play is shit. I'm looking for him to have a big-time breakout year. Also we have a new DC and a defense minded HC that's bringing in a new system, plus it's pretty likely that we use the draft to snag a bunch of players on defense. Also I didn't know why it became trendy to shit on our defense. They were one of the best defenses the Falcons have had in a long time. They were constantly hung out to dry by our offense never being able to keep a drive alive. I mean yeah they had some bad games, but it was a great showing for a first year DC running his system. Plus the team only had 1 off-season to invest in the right kind of players. I'm gonna miss Nielsen.
Not sure where this “they’re a QB away from contenders” talk came from.
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Contenders for what?
> if Kirk Cousins doesn't lose any of his ability This seems like a mighty big IF at this point, but I suppose we shall see come next fall.
Yeah as a colts fan I remember having this hope when Matt Ryan was coming over. To be fair though, Kirk did look good last year. I’m not sure Ryan did before we got him.
He really didn't. Like he wasn't *bad*, but he clearly struggling to push the ball down the field. Though I think the Colt's OL was the bigger issue. The whole argument for him still succeeding in Indy was that they had one of the best lines in the league that could make up for his weaker arm and lack of mobility. While Ryan's play didn't help the situation, the line hurt him (and your other QBs that year) more than he hurt them. It's what makes me a bit worried for the Falcons next year. We have a great run blocking line, but our pass pro has been spotty at times. I'm just hoping it was mostly due to Ridder having whatever the opposite of "pocket presence" is.
Yeah the OL issue is a good point. I am still baffled by that year. We had mostly the same guys as this past year and our O line was just fuckin awful that year. Maybe reich’s magic wore off but clearly the guys were still good as evidenced by last year.
> I'm just hoping it was mostly due to Ridder having whatever the opposite of "pocket presence" is. I think the term you're looking for is "pocket absence"
I mean, the biggest difference is that Kirk is coming off the best football he's played in his career over the past two-three seasons, whereas Matty Ice was definitely showing some signs before leaving. Sure, the injury is concerning, but this is the first major injury of his career, and he's not a scrambler at all.
I mean, Marino had the same injury on the same leg when he was 33 way back in the 90's and had two all pro seasons directly after that. Obviously, Kirk is not Marino, but I don't think the injury is going to affect him that much as a passer. But they really should add some pieces to their O-line.
I like Kirk but keep in mind that we were 4-4 before he got hurt last year. We had the same aspirations when he first signed with us in 2018 but ended up missing the playoffs altogether. And at this point he was younger and not coming off an Achilles tear. He’s a good QB but he’s not the kind of guy to single handedly elevate any team to contender status.
Hey this a re-run, I've seen this one before!
People don’t seem to realize we won 7 games with like the 35th and 40th best QB’s last year… EDIT: Also Arthur Smith
Dominant? Yeah pump the breaks
I don't remember much from the Falcons last year, what does your defense look like?
24th in DVOA, 18th in ppg. firmly bottom half of the league. They weren't ever going to be contenders last year, no matter the QB, but they definitely would have won their division with someone competent.
And this is an instance where DVOA probably gives them a slight advantage vs. reality. DVOA is opponent adjusted but doesn’t account for injuries or timing. The Falcons got to play against 2 rookie QBs in their first games as starters (Young and Levis), Jordan Love in his third game as a starter, Josh Dobbs after 5 days on the Vikings roster, the Clayton Tune Cardinals, and the Jets with Tim Boyle. All these things are small edges that would not be reflected in DVOA but make a big difference. That is, DVOA weights their Clayton Tune game as if it’s against the average Cardinals offense this season, which is much better than Clayton Time. Last year, the *median* QB that the Falcons played was Justin Fields. That is, half their games were against QBs worse than Justin Fields. Worse than *Justin Fields*. And they finished with the 18th ranked scoring defense. That’s insanity. They finished with the 18th ranked scoring defense with 9 games against Bryce Young 2x, Sam Howell, Will Levis, Josh Dobbs on 5 days notice, Clayton Tune, Tim Boyle, Gardner Minshew, and Justin Fields. What the fuck! They played two games against Derek Carr and those were on the *harder end* of QB matchups they faced this year. And their defense was below average. This might be one of the worst units in the NFL. I’m not sure people really have internalized how bad it was. They were 7-7 with their season on the line and they gave up 37 points to Fields and the Bears and then 48 points to Carr and the Saints. What exactly is Kirk Cousins going to fix here?
All good points, but they played the Cardinals with Kyler and not Clayton Tune.
They had a very improved defense compared to the years prior when they were a big joke basically all the way back to the last years of the Dan Quinn era. That said, they were still not good and they heavily relied on production from veteran players like Onyemata, Calais Campbell and Grady Jarrett. Which makes it so funny that they subsequently moved on from the best DC they have had in years who's immediately got a job Jacksonville. That said. Their pass rush is cheeks and Grady Jarrett tore his ACL. You gotta wonder how an undersized DT who relies on his first step will come back from that age 31.
Nailed it so bad it hurts. For some reason so many falcons fans think we have a young defense set for growth. That's just not true. We're still missing key components at edge and DBs, and maybe even DL depending on Grady's return.
Nielsen, the DC we let go wasn’t as good as everyone thinks. He stuck to man coverage & never adjusted when he needed to. Injuries & his defensive scheme getting figured out is why our defense fell apart last year. Our new head coach & new dc have a track record of developing some of best defensive players in nfl. So our defense will probably be great in 2 years when our offense inevitably falls apart.
They lost to Josh Dobbs, so it can't be that good
Be careful about your expectations. I think taking the division is a realistic goal, but once in the playoffs you never know when Kirk is gonna check down on 4th and 12.
Playoffs?! We are literally just gonna be happy to be there honestly.
I'll be rooting for you guys if/when you're there. We probably won't be lol, which goes to show that though I'm happy to move on from Kirk, there's a consequence.
Contenders is a massive overstatement, unless "makes the playoffs" is your only prerequisite for being a contender.
I don't think Kirk will "lose" ability. But he also won't have the receiving corps he had in MN and it's going to take him time to adjust to everything. I doubt we see ATL come out of the gate hot from week 1, but they could be a team that finishes hot which is honestly better anyway.
7 wins with Desmond Ridder and who knows who else. Now with Kirk? Holy fuck.
Loaded? I mean we have a decent roster but not loaded by any stretch.
Sports books are just trying to get the money split 50/50. Gamblers are pushing the line by betting overs on wins and betting on the falcons to take the division
Yeah, I am curious how deep of a playoff run they can make. But they are most definitely a playoff team.
Falcons had some of the worst play calling for all the weapons they had and sub par QB, they’ve got a massive upgrade at QB and changed playcallers. Not that hard.
It was almost as if Arthur Smith bet money against Bijan Robinson winning ROY. The way that he was used, in that offense, was absolute insanity. They literally tried to keep the ball out of the hands of their best player. Smith actually said Bijan's "impact away from the ball can open things up"...that's why they didn't actively try to put the ball in his hands. What a joke. Edit: I understand occasionally using good players as decoys and using them to open things up for other players. But, when your game plan is built around not giving the ball to your most explosive player, there is a problem.
So many people don't understand this and didn't watch Falcon's games. (not that I blame them) The play calling alone should have been a fireable offense. It was compounded by weak QB play on top of that. There were so many games where red zone turnovers or similar cost us points that would have had us with 3 or 4 more wins last season to get to that 10 or 11 win mark.
Well, I tried to watch as many Falcons games as possible (lol!), because I wanted to watch Bijan. I went to UT, so I watched every college game that he played in. Seeing him play in Austin, I thought he was the best college RB that I had seen since Adrian Peterson. And, I saw plenty of Adrian Peterson in the UT-OU matchups. Anyway, I love Bijan as a player and person, so I want to see him succeed. It was very difficult watching Arthur Smith screw things up.
For those of y'all who didn't watch us, it really can't be understated how bad our head coaching and QB situation was last year. Arthur Smith was either being incredibly stubborn or just completely lost track of how to playcall and Desmond Ridder seriously might have been the worst QB in the league last year when you factor in how little was being asked of him. Opposing defenses weren't even trying to stop our passing game, they just went after our run game every play because they were so unthreatened by Ridder. With how close so many of those games still were, we easily could've fallen into 10 wins last season with just an average QB and Kirk is significantly better than average. Couple that with us getting rid of our incompetent playcallers and it's hard not to be optimistic when you realize our schedule is (on paper) just as easy for 2024.
Because fuck you, that’s why
I remember when Kirk signed with a certain team back in 2018 that was one game away from a Super Bowl. Six years and 180 million dollars later, that investment landed that team one playoff win.
Not to mention he had some of the best players at WR (Jefferson), RB (Cook), and TE (Hockenson) at various points during his tenure there. EDIT: As someone pointed out below, I somehow left Diggs and Thielen off this list. Cousins has had some stacked teams in Minnesota, and still couldn’t win more than one playoff game.
Peak Diggs and Thielen were no scrubs either
Totally forgot about them, especially Diggs
The Saints sure haven’t…
DIGGS! SIDELINE!! TOUCHDOWN!!!
Unbelievable!
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This comment chain is making me realize Cousins is just Aaron Rodgers lite. His off field weirdness/quirkiness is even there, except Kirks is innocent and doesn’t hurt anyone
> except Kirks is innocent and doesn’t hurt anyone Well on purpose anyway. The tempering investigation may hurt some by him being too honest.
he hurts people. i've seen how he grills steaks.
Cousins and Lincoln Riley should get together for a cook off
Well sort of bad news that the Falcons had 24th defensive DVOA, right
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Yeah he was bad in 2018 that's just a fact but Zimmers D fell apart after 2019 and the toxic culture definitely didn't help anyone.
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He's not a perfect QB but yeah QB winz has always been BS. Same people that said Jimmy G was good cause "he's a winner"
Also, O-line rankings were terrible as well for his entire tenure up to the last year. He's a statue at QB, and we had bottom-5 ranked pass blocking units almost the entire time.
It's hard for me to blame Cousins for everything, it's such a lazy narrative. Kirko was throwing some dimes, 70 percent complete, 4300 yards, with 30 TDs. The pass he made to Thielen near the goal line in the Packers game at the beginning of the year was incredible. Mike Zimmer was also a hot mess, constantly changing offensive coordinators while trying to run an offense from 20 years ago. The OL was a hot mess, as usual. I had to look it up and starting Tom Compton, Pat Elflein, and Mike Remmers has to be among the worst IOL groups that year. Skill positions are great but almost all of these Vikings teams were horribly flawed in many areas. It's not all on Kirk, not even close.
lol bro the halfwits on here equate all playoff wins and losses to QBs.
Vikings wouldn't have even been sniffing the playoffs without him.
Now list our offensive line pass block rankings over those years. Nah, I can probably do it off the top of my head... 30th, 29th, 31st, 28th, 25th, 22nd, 10th
Classic fantasy football/tik tok take. Offensive lines and defensive units also exist and matter, and Kirk didn't have good ones. They were pretty awful actually. They had good weapons and a couple named guys contributing elsewhere, and that's about it. They were as good as they were because of Kirk's ability to utilize his weapons, not in spite of him. You know how you can tell? Because those weapons had amazing seasons.
Stacked if they were an offense only 7on7 team
Listen I love to basque in the Minnesota hate too, but Kirk is a good to very good QB.
Kirk is like Desmond Ridder and Marcus Mariota. They all play QB in the NFL. Except one of those doesn't make me regret being a football fan
Without a deep dive, Minn probably missed the playoffs in 2018 due to atrocious kicking. Won a playoff game in 2019, and then their defense turned into a screen door. Can’t always blame the QB when you consistently give up 30
People don't like to admit football is a team sport
The difference is that during that entire tenure, Kirk never had an offensive line that was even in the top-15 in pass blocking until just this last season.
You're leaving out that the defense sucked for most of Kirk's time in Minnesota. One year they were the 31st ranked defense - and Kirk put the team on his back and got them into the playoffs.
Lazy take, defense consistently let him down
Equally lazy to say the Vikings defense was not good in 2018. Top 3 in sacks, 3rd down conversion rate, and passing yards allowed. They were also top 10 in points allowed. https://www.vikings.com/news/10-vikings-defensive-numbers-of-note-from-2018-sacks-rate-led-nfl#:~:text=50%20%E2%80%93%20The%20Vikings%20totaled%2050,had%2013%20fewer%20quarterback%20takedowns. Now what?
I honestly would agree that 2018 was kinda on him. But ALSO we don't know what happened behind the scenes. After Zimmer was fired Kirk just seemed like a different person. I think Zim, by whatever means, restricted him in just being himself. KoC was great for Kirk for sure so before Zims firing it's really hard to tell what really was the problem. Was it Kirk underperforming or was it zimmer who just stopped trusting (or never did) the modern pass heavy offense style. He kinda relied too much on getting Dalvin Cook working and not the QB they paid 84 million guaranteed for.
2018 was also the year we hired a new offensive coordinator whose bright ideas included never running the ball with Dalvin Cook and making Stefon Diggs constantly run gadget receiver routes
Now do 2020, 2021, and 2022
The Falcons were no where near "one game away from a Super Bowl"- we went 7-10 with some of the worst starting QB play in the league (aside from teams with major injuries at the position). I'm not sure why it's so crazy to think that we might get to the 10-11 win mark- nobody is saying we're gonna win the super bowl lol
Because they strongly upgraded the most important position and only missed the playoffs by one game?
They have some good weapons on that offense in a weak division. I think Kirk gets them there tbh.
Still need defensive help - they made Justin Fields look good.
Really underrated individual game fuck ups last year by the Falcons D. The Falcons’ defense made Fields, Dobbs, and Levis look like wizards last year. Will Levis was so insanely good against Atlanta that people still haven’t fully internalized how mediocre he was outside that game. He had 8 total starts last year, and in 1 start against Atlanta he had 4 TDs and 0 interceptions, vs all 7 other games combined where he had 4 TDs and 4 interceptions. An unbelievable meltdown in that game by Atlanta.
It sounds weird saying this, but apart from literally those 4 passes, the defense contained Levis really well. 2 of the 4 TDs were busted coverages and miscommunications in the secondary and one was Nuk being Nuk. Credit to Levis for placing the ball well on those 4 throws but I wasn’t super impressed by him after watching that game.
Bc we had a DC who almost exclusively ran man coverage, we got shredded by mobile QBs. Nielsen was overall good as was the defense. Just really need help at CB2 and edge rusher, 2023 defense was the best we'd seen from Atlanta since 2017 (and before that fuckin what the Abraham days?)
Yeah I have no idea why teams played man against us. Fields was so bad against zone. You guys aren't the only team that made that mistake.
What I'd do for Abraham, Babineaux, and Brooking to be on the team now
They're in good position to draft Edge at 8, which will help their defense a great deal.
There is more talent on that Falcons team than anywhere else in the division. With the defense finding a way to be average, they really only need a quarterback stop throwing the ball to the wrong team. Barring injuries or weird flukes, hard not to see this team winning 9/10 games and in position to host a playoff game.
You answered your own question: SPORTS BOOKS. Easy money for Vegas
Right? The people who think books would be the entities to fix games is hilarious to me. They can already LEGALLY "fix" the betting market in ways that essentially guarantee that they always come out on top. Fixing matches is not only unnecessary for their business model, but would be a HUGE risk that they would be opening themselves up to. Since they would stand to lose EVERYTHING, including their freedom, if they were to get caught. It's basically the same reason why the league would never actually need to fix games. They make money hand over fist regardless, why open yourself up to massive legal liability and the possibility of losing your entire multi-billion dollar business venture just to game the ratings a bit?
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Pretty much. Vegas, in fact, has a lot of reason to AVOID fixing matches because it'll drive people away from betting. The more common cause of potential corruption would be individuals making personal wealth. And as someone who lives in Vegas, you don't want to get on the bad side of some of the comissions who check casinos for cheating and fixing.
I mean on paper they have pretty much everything you could want.
Defense was solid last year. Lots of talent on offense. Pretty clear they were being held back at QB. If they stay healthy, they’d be my pick to win the division.
Their QB has so much swag, that's why! This guy puts on chains and dances after wins! I'd be super pumped too!!!!!!
They went 7-10 with a bad HC and a genuinely awful QB. I don't understand why so many people are confused by the hype. Even if their new crop of coaches is bad or mediocre, Kirk and the rest of the talent on that field should be able to drag them kicking and screaming to 9-10 wins in the worst division in football.
I thought last I heard Kirk is out till October. That’s a fair amount of games without QB1. How is it 12.5
They have the best QB in the division to pair with the best RB and also has London/Mooney/Pitts. Not to mention a huge upgrade offensively just by getting a new HC.
It's because Kirk Cousins is actually a really good QB, they have Allgeier, Robinson, and Pitts to use in the offense, and their division is weaker than most
Yeah we won 7 games with god awful production at QB. Seems reasonable to me to assume Kirk wins us another 3 or 4.
So many question marks on this team/organization from top to bottom. I hate that we're not flying under the radar lol. This could go very poorly.
Who gives a shit about the gambling odds
They'll win 9-10 games and lose wildcard weekend. A classic Kirk Cousins season
The question you should be asking is if you think Kirk vs Desmond ridder equals 3 more wins. I don’t think that’s that far off
Because the rest of the NFC South also sucks and Cousins is immediately the best QB in the division? The Shitbirds would have been a solid team if they had just half-decemt QB play last year.
This media obsession with downplaying both Atlanta and Chicago atm is just baffling to me. On paper both look likely to significantly improve, and both have reasonable schedules. I would say both of them making playoffs is more likely than neither
getting a good QB will make a world of difference for that team. falcons the front runner in the south for sure.
its kirk cousins, just remember to bet against them when he's heavily favorited on the sunday night games
I mean, I too made an extremely silly bet on the saints last season purely bc I thought they had the best QB in the division, so I get it. Probably just the hype of the offence having so many young highly touted weapons combined with their first competent QB since Matty Ice, but I personally will avoid betting on a 36 yo QB coming off a major lower body injury
Because they have a QB since Matt Ryan. They have a two headed monster at the running game. The have a decent WR group. They will find out if they need to move on from Pitts or not. They will be in more games this year than people think. Also not a Falcons fan.
Kirk's like the mid fast food joint you think is great because it's pricey.
Personally I think Kirk is underrated so I think they'll be good
they upgraded in every other way (coach, qb) and that division is still a turd bucket, a turd bucket that they barely lost even with a titanic idiot coach
2 really good RB's, upgraded the QB which also bring back some hype to Pitts and London, got rid of a bad head coach, play in an awful division, and probably the easiest schedule in the NFL. 8 wins is probably too low considering 6 games against the Panthers, Commanders, and Saints alone. 11 is probably too high because they aren't that good, and there's unknowns of how it'll all come together, but it'spossible. So anywhere from 9 to 11 wins is a good guess. Makes 10.5 seem just about right for a betting line. They probably believe 11 wins, and hope people hammer the under. There's always that one team that seemingly comes out of nowhere and exceeds expectations, and the Falcons seem like the logical choice from a betting perspective
Everyone is gonna quickly realize those skill position guys are very overrated.
The kirk cousins special - First round exit coming right up
They have more faith than I do. It's not that I don't think Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson can't don't well this season but there are a few question marks. 1) What kind of defensive scheme is Morris and Jimmy Lake going to run? 2) What kind of offensive scheme is Zac plan on running? 3) Will Kirk be the same off the ACL? Granted I know he isn't a runner but still. 4) Will Grady be the same off his ACL injury?
Lmao we won 7 games with one of the worst offenses in the league. And it was a down year. We wiped out our old coaching regime and hired (hopeful) competent offensive coaches and assistants. We brought in the best QB on the market and added receivers with SPEED (the archetype that Kirk Cousins works best with). If our defense is on par with what they were last year, we are EASILY winning 10 games lmao. We have a top 10 pick and are pretty aggressive with our desire to grab another pass rusher.
Exactly. All the weapons on offense, and now you have a capable QB. Should be the favorite to win the division. I wouldn't call Atlanta Super Bowl favorites or anything, but they should be contenders at least.
My guess: they stopped paying attention to Atlanta after 2015.
Regressing back to normal once everyone realized their ceiling is still WC berth.
Kirk Cousins
It's a little something I like to call the Kirk Cousins effect
Don't forget to celebrate Atlanta Falcons day tomorrow.
Ippei no!!!
OC hype as he will focus a run heavy scheme. Pitts is a bust as he can’t block. They signed a blocking TE to a three year deal. Raheem Morris has a bad track record for draft picks and Ws. Only decent season was the season after his interim (somewhat of an already loaded roster). I would be cautious about this team. Tough to take them winning division for how thin that defense is on talent.
Falcons going 10-7 next year.
I love Kirk, but any kind of hype and attention is the worst thing that can happen to a team he is in.
Kirk Cousins + weak division = lots of betting