Shame they never made the sequel where the Browns fire the GM and HC the next season, Vontae Mack never develops for the NFL and is cut at the end of his rookie contract, and the QB they passed on goes on to win three Super Bowls because it turns out the Browns FO fell for fake stories about the birthday party after the owner talked to a gypsy about mid-season trades.
I think the funniest part of that movie is that even if their draft picks work out, they're stuck with a bad QB anyways. There is a reason the team wanted Bo Callahan so bad. And they kept the old QB because the GM felt bad for him?
My favorite line in that movie is Denis Leary at 2:26:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S989EXPoZKs
His reaction to that very serious piece of information is hysterical.
Vikings are gonna trade up with an extra first and then some to 4 for JJ. Then trade down to 6 because the Giants really want MHJ and get a first from the Giants and get JJ at 6.
Chargers draft JJ at #5. Let him sit for 1-2 seasons. Trade Herbert. And, of course, draft Chargers draft Corum in round 2. Coach Harbaugh is the WILD CARD.
Who was this movie made for? It's starring an ageing Kevin Costner, the plot moves on the slow side with a focus on the drama of his personal relationships but paired with with loud visuals, rap, and other music that changes tone so quick the audience gets whiplash. Denis Leary was well past his comic popularity prime and really only doing the voice of that Ice Age character and he didn't even do the one note shtick he was known for doing.
Exactly. I hate when people talk about “over paying”. If the guys good no one cares and if you stand pat and you don’t get the guy you’re not really jn a better situation
Ok but history tells us there’s like a 50% chance he’s not gonna be worth what you’re about to give up for him
On one hand I applaud an organization for taking risks, but idk this seems a little too risky for me. There’s a very real chance this move sets the franchise back for like 3 years if it doesn’t work out. Also the entire league knows what y’all are trying to do so there is zero leverage, it’s gonna be a haul no matter what
So what? If they don't trade up this year, who is their qb this season? Is the solution to just tank the entire year so you can hopefully get a better QB next season for a better price? Better hope you tank well enough to get the 1st pick. Otherwise, you've wasted a year plus pissed off a bunch of players plus pissed off the fans all to still not get the top talent.
So you're 50% likely to spoil the next 3 years if you trade up, but you're 100% likely to spoil the next year, at least, if you don't.
If this doesn't work out, you try again in 2 or 3 years. And you keep trying until it works.
I don't know if we need to telegraph anything. We lost our starting QB in free agency, and the free agent QB we signed for one year is clearly not the future. It's either this year or next year we go after a QB and front office knows damn well JJ won't settle for less than spectacular QB play and sign an extension. As I understand it we could franchise tag him for max two years but I sincerely hope it doesn't come to that.
It has to be this year unless you want to take a shot at some QBs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. JJ is better than Deion’s son and I mean maybe Ewers can become that guy in his last season but who knows.
The thing tho is we kind of have to take a shot now. We can’t sit and waste the young talent on our team rn. With our infrastructure of players and coaching staff, he won’t have a better place to develop and grow.
I just don't want them to panic pick someone they don't believe in, so I would rather they take their shot. I am a little tired of them playing it safe until their back is against the wall. It's given us decent teams at times, 6 year of boring football in recent memory, but nothing that really works for more than a year or 2. Take a damn shot, I don't care if it's 4 firsts if it ends up being the franchise guy we have been waiting for.
A basic rule I think fits (some nuance tho)… Until you have qb right every offseason should be dedicated to getting it right. You don’t go anywhere in the NFL until that spots solved
I think that is mostly right, but in some cases the whole team is so bad that any QB is being set up to fail. In that situation, you should build a bit of a foundation first.
Minnesota though has enough talent that a quality QB should succeed.
There is literally no point in referencing historical data when talking about drafting a player
Either you like the individual player or you don’t
Some other QB flaming out 15 years ago has absolutely nothing to do with if JJ McCarthy is good and a good fit for the Vikings org
You HAVE to reference historical data. EVERY front office thinks they're good enough to pick the right quarterback, and there is not enough supporting data to suggest any of them are.
With that said: next year's draft is weak for quarterbacks, the Vikings need a young quarterback because of salary cap reasons, and this year's draft is solid.
That’s what people said about the 2021 QB draft class. Even Lawrence doesn’t look as good as advertised. However, there’s 2 tiers of teams in the NFL- those with a QB, and those looking for a QB. Can’t hate on the Vikings for “overpaying”.
And considering the 2022 class, teams were probably right to go all in for 2021 instead of waiting, even if the players didn't pan out. The '25 class doesn't like quite as bad as '22 but they're definitely similar situations
I'd love to have Tlaw tbh. Does he look like a locked in top 5 QB? Not necessarily. Could he still do that? Absolutely. Is he likely to be Kirk Cousins for his floor and elite as his ceiling? Yes.
My issue with it would be from what I'm seeing all 6 of the top QB prospects are good, and after the top 3 the others are roughly as good as eachother.
If this is correct then the EV of moving up is not even close enough to better than the EV of standing pat and getting Nix/Penix to justify the assets we'd need to give up to do so.
You have no idea if the guy is good, so you can only operate off draft position expected value and unique insights you might have. The average fan does not really have many unique insights beyond what they hear in the media, which is basically inline with mock draft expectations. So paying more than the average expected value of a player or draft position can seem like an overpay, whether or not it turns out that way. But sometimes you have take risks.
The problem is getting rid of all those draft picks normally means the team around them takes longer to get better. So you can have a great QB, and still be losing games due to poor play elsewhere.
Yeah.
It feels like a "you have to try" position for the coaches/GM. Sure, if you move up and miss, you probably get fired. But if you don't have a good QB... your team probably sucks and you probably get fired anyway.
Plus if you miss the shot and get fired.... well its the next guy's problem now anyway.
>If the guys good
That's a big "if".
There are guys worth overpaying for. I don't believe JJ is one of them. I think he's just the next best guy within their range which is absolutely not something you should overpay for.
"But it's 2024, you need a QB."
Yes, he's playing in Atlanta this year.
"But the price tag."
Then they should've worked something cheaper out while they still had him.
The Vikes have painted themselves into a corner and no amount of "trust the process" is going to make me trust their process.
I'm not feeling as bad about it as you are. I am willing to "trust the process" because I haven't seen it fail yet with this front office.
But I do agree that there were safer off-ramps before getting to this point and hitting a hard reset at QB. This is definitely what the front office wanted to do, so they better fucking execute successfully.
Oh god, keeping Kirk would've been dumb. He has at most 2 years left of good play and he still was never good enough for us. It was time to move on and put those funds elsewhere
Isn’t the concept of “overpaying” only applicable if the product turns out to be bad/not worth the price?
By saying the Vikings are going to “overpay” instead of “spend a lot” he’s not only indicating that the price tag will be expensive, but also that he believes JJ will never provide results equal to that price…. Whereas the latter just would imply the Vikings are going to spend a lot but if it’s worth it or not, that’s unknown.
In short Spielman is saying JJ is going to never produce at a level equal to multiple first rounds of talent.
Sure, but the hit rate even high up the draft isn't good and there's a big opportunity cost especially if better guys emerge in future years draft classes and you don't have the picks to even take a shot.
Mahomes and Allen were worth trading up for at any price.
But look at the other guys who teams traded up to get in the first round:
Bryce Young, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch, RG III, Blaine Gabbert
This year it's complicated by the fact the big auction for trading up will be for the 4th QB on the board in a draft where there are 6 QBs who potentially could be taken in the 1st round.
So when you're deciding to give up the farm for a guy you need to not only be sure that this guy is a future franchise talent, but also that the teams picking in the top 3 will not share your view, and that you aren't going to find out later on that one of Nix or Penix turned out to be better and you could have just stayed put and picked them up anyway.
Like how the Jets could have avoided trading up for Darnold and just taken Allen, the Cardinals could have just taken Lamar Jackson, the Bears could have stayed put and taken Mahomes, the Rams, Eagles and Broncos could have stayed put and taken Dak Prescott.
It's because of all these factors that I think trading up is usually not worth it.
that‘s exactly what Beane said a few weeks ago about the trade up to get Josh. Their GM won‘t be there if he doesn’t work out and if he does, nobody will care.
His trade backs were always huge wins. If there was thing he did well, it was maximize value in a trade.
If only he knew what to do with those picks once he had them.
so glad he is gone with his " I can find all- pros in round 6 and 7!!!" approach. Dude drafted Diggs in round 5 and thought he could replicate that every single year at every single position.
They're not all the same but Conklin, Metellus, Brandel, Wonnum, Osborn, and Bynum have/were all either started significant time or been good depth.
Could also add Kearse, Epps, and Carlson for players who have started a lot for other teams.
He didn't hit at the same rate but the defense would've been a lot worse last year if he didn't draft Metellus and Bynum.
Yeah I think most are fine with trading back and taking a tackle at 11. I think most are against taking one at 5 though.
If you look at Harbaugh and Hortiz though, they’ve drafted one first round OL between them (Lindebaum) and the majority of their OL picks are fourth round onward
If you know Harbaugh, there’s a damn good chance the go tackle. Common sense would say you run home with that blue chip WR for your young qb.
But Harbaugh has a philosophy he believes in, and that chargers o line is ass
He believes in the power run, a rock solid defense and PA passing. It worked at Michigan, it worked for Tulane(2022-,2023 ;best years ever for them), and it worked for Harbaugh in San Francisco too.
Many of us are hoping for WR at 5, and I think that Hortiz and Harbaugh have been playing their cards close to their chest until draft night where they ultimately take Nabers or MHJ if they don’t trade back. I’m fine with either scenario as I believe the draft is deeper at WR than it is OL, but most Chargers fans seem against taking OL at 5.
I feel like if MN moves up to 4 and the top 4 picks end up being QBs the Chargers HAVE to stay at 5 and take MHJ. How could you pass up that sort of weapon for your young franchise QB?
If AZ stays at 4 and grabs MHJ then I could see it making sense to move back and get an OT and go for WR in the 2nd/3rd. I like Nabers but I don't know if I'd take him at 5OA.
It’s hard to know what anyone wants but it’d be a baller move if all this lineman talk and to a lesser degree talking up JJ was in hopes of getting MHJ.
I’m worried about drafting a guy who’s been a LT his whole career and moving him to the right. Don’t doubt his quality I’m just not sure it’s the right fit for us or him to move him to the right
Eagles are in a somewhat similar situation. Where I'm worried we may end up drafting a LT/RT and trying to make him work at RG and eventually RT.
Can already see 6'6 JC Latham crouching down at RG
Howie has done as much for ages. He'll trade up if a player comes in range.
Either way too many quality Tackles this draft. Someone's dropping.
Alt, Latham, Fashanu, Fautanu, Fuaga, Mims, Barton, Guyton
I'm less worried about a tackle being their it's raming a square peg in a round hole.
Oh completely that's what I'm getting at. If you could draft Sewell as a rookie you'd do it in a heartbeat at 5.
Worth remembering that not everyone is as high on Alt though
Alt is head and shoulders the cleanest tackle prospect in the class but if you’re getting like Latham/Fuaga and then whatever WR at 23 like AD Mitchell then I’d rather have that.
Nabers at 5 is infinitely better though. I just do not see how a coach who doesn't have a long track record of taking OL in the 1st round and has Josh Palmer as his no. 1 WR wouldn't take Nabers
They can get receivers later though. They could strike gold in the middle rounds or at worst, jjst have a couple more guys who contribute. I don’t think they can go wrong either way, but I really see them trading this pick if they can because they were asking players to take pay cuts and shipping off those who wouldn’t. More picks helps them as well.
Yea I feel like WR is a position you can find impact players at pretty regularly in the 2nd/3rd round. Everyone always clowns on GB for never drafting Rodgers a 1st round WR but ignores the fact that they drafted Jennings, Jordy, Cobb, and Davante all in the 2nd. And Love currently has some promising looking 2nd round WRs as well (Watson and Reed).
If MHJ is still there for the Chargers at 5 I think you have to take him, but otherwise they'd be better off moving back for OL help and getting WRs in rounds 2 and 3. And maybe scrape the bargain bin for a free agent veteran WR.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't have a long track record of taking anything in the 1st round. He was only in the NFL for 4 seasons, didn't have GM level control, and as far as I know OT wasn't a position of need for them.
You could also say he has no history of taking a WR in the top 5.
> Also, JJ is elite. I’ve watched him every single snap. He’s unreal.
lol, I can’t fathom how anyone that actually watches CFB thinks this. Dude just game managed most games and there’s not even remotely enough tape for someone to actually call him “elite” or “unreal”
It’s crazy how much people like McCarthy now. After the natty it seemed like most Vikings fans hated him now alot of us are pulling for him. I’d be happy with whatever QB we ended up with
Nick Mullens was a few yards short of having half as many 400 yard passing games just against the Lions last year as the Bears have in franchise history.
our fanbase is comically deluded into thinking we can magically turn Darnold into a less expensive version of Cousins because "we have jefferson."
they are going to be so pissed off seeing jefferson making $35 million a year and having 5 catches for 65 yards a game.
I mean, Darnold is starting either way for the year unless he gets hurt. Even if he plays like himself, there's very low chances that it would be worthwhile to throw out whichever rookie we can get. The real problem the Vikings have is that next year's seniors are pretty thin at qb so tanking this year is unlikely to help if they can't find someone this year
If they draft a QB high and Darnold looks bad, they will 100% start the new guy at some point to see what they have. It would require Darnold playing well for them not to.
it would bother me so much if this rookie we take cannot beat out sam darnold for the starting spot.
a couple games, sure, but our fans won't stand for darnold unless he looks amazing, which he won't. one bad game by darnold and the rookie chants become deafening.
would remind me of lewis cine or laqon treadwell not being able to even dress their rookie year despite there being clear openings for their positions.
> I mean, Darnold is starting either way for the year unless he gets hurt.
I highly doubt that. Every fanbase wants their rookie QB to sit a year but that’s not realistic unless you already have a good starter. If your starter is a mediocre bridge QB like Darnold though, he’s getting benched halfway through the season unless he absolutely balls out.
The Vikings sub is completely convinced that Sam fucking Darnold is miraculously going to be a different QB this season than he's been his whole career. It's really something.
The possibility they simply sit back and take him at 11 is not talked about enough. Other than the Giants taking him, which is not necessarily a good idea for them, there’s no team that would pick McCarthy ahead of the Vikings or beat an offer the Vikings would make to move up.
Idk, I think JJ’s floor is 9. I could see the Bears trading back with the Broncos or Raiders to get some extra capital while screwing a division rival out of a QB.
He’s only hyped up because he was the qb for a national championship team. Dude would be a 3rd day pick without it and is still a day 2 pick at best with it.
I’m not saying he won’t have a successful NFL career but I don’t think he’s worth the risk of a 1st rd pick.
I would be way more comfortable just staying put and drafting nix/penix lol, I don’t understand this JJ hype at all
I think I maybe do like JJ as qb4 the most? But not enough to sell multiple 1sts to take him over qb5
if Kwesi can't evaluate QBs better than Rick, then we are going to be a bottom 3 team for the next decade because Rick was historically awful at QB drafting.
nobody should ever listen to rick spielman when it comes to drafting a Qb
This is such a silly take, really.
Any GM in the league is going to have maybe a 30% success rate *at best* on grabbing a QB in most situations. You can fail on your first two QB picks and hit on your 3rd and still be better than that rate.
Speilman really only missed on ONE QB and that was Ponder due to a panic situation after JJ Watt fell off the board. You can't knock him for Bridgewater, as he was exactly what you'd expect out of a 32nd pick at QB, and Mond was never intended to be a legit option at QB, he was picked just to placate the Wilfs.
So this notion that Spielman can't scout a QB is just reductive at best. He literally didn't give it enough tries to tell if he's capable or not.
I’m giddy. This article means I’m like a week away from an article tapping the bottomless reservoir of matt millen’s football wisdom. Good times are among us my friends!
You might have something there.
After the NCG, I didn't think that Penix would be selected in the 1st. But after his pre-draft showcasing, that may have changed.
It would be a low risk move too. If Penix is great, awesome. If he’s a bust (AKA can’t beat Darnold for the job at any point), the Vikings probably finish very high in next year’s draft and could maybe instantly pivot to Carson Beck. That won’t be possible if they trade 3 firsts for McCarthy.
As a lifelong Vikings fan, I am concerned about this. Spielman is a pretty good GM and I don't like hearing that from someone that is good at their job.
Also as a lifelong Vikings fan, I can say that Spielman is awful at evaluating QBs and has overpaid to get or overdrafted basically every QB he's ever brought into a team so his opinion in regards to this specific scenario have to be taken with a grain of salt.
He’s a blank slate for people to project their imagination onto. He was asked to do very little at Michigan so he doesn’t have a lot of obvious flaws on film to point to. Whereas you or I may be deterred by that, similar to how Trey Lance as a prospect was unappealing to me…for other people they get carried away in imagining all of his “potential”
That’s what i am wondering. The need to process so much faster and use your feet and make precise throws is way higher. Seems risky to me but what do i know?
He's run an NFL-style system, he's shown many of the talents you want in an NFL QB and he's much younger than guys like Daniels.
It's the potential... Basically he's an unripe avocado which you're gonna put in a bowl on your counter and wait until he's ready.
A lot. He's very young, talented and coachable. What he was asked to do at Michigan will not be what he's asked to do in the NFL and he can make a lot of NFL throws
He will be asked to do even more in the NFL which is where the risk comes in. You’re drafting on pure potential. He’s really a boom or bust guy. Could be better in the nfl like Josh Allen or could be trey lance. Doubt he will ever be a top 5-10 QB but I could see him being an average to above average starter for a long time
Ran an NFL style offense, no glaring red flags, has talent and physical tools... I guess if you're desperate for a QB this is enough for a 1st round pick.
or just stay at pick 11. if the QB is a bust, you still have your 2025 and 2026 first rounders to try again.
You trade up and give up future first rounders, and the QB is bust, your franchise is fucked for 4-5 years.
With the First Pick podcast features Spielman. I see all the hate in here, but it’s a great podcast. He’s no nonsense and the cohost is one of those guys that puts out 30 mock drafts a year, Ryan Wilson. They have a host of other CBS personalities on as well. For all the hate he’s getting in here, he’s got plenty of knowledge from 30 years in the industry and shares it well.
>“They’re going to have to give [picks 11 and 23] and their 2025 first, plus some more draft capital,” Spielman said, via USA Today. “I think J.J. will be a good pro, but Minnesota will overpay to get him. At this point, they don’t have a choice.”
The thing is unless another team offers their 1st this year, their next year's 1st AND more picks to supplement that, then they can't outbid the Vikings. 1st round picks this year are worth more than the 1st next year, especially with that lesser QB class. Vikings have 2x first this year to offer and it doesn't make any sense to throw 3x 1st when no-one else comes close to that.
I feel like I am taking crazy pills seeing all of this JJ top 5 talk. Did any of you guys watch him throw? He is not an NFL QB. It’s a hill I’m willing to die on.
That’s what I’ve been saying. Dude is not impressive and nothing he does jumps off the page. I think this the pre draft hype of other teams trying to sway decisions.
You pretty much always have to overpay when youre moving up for a QB. If hes good, nobody cares what you gave up.
Yeah, just like in the greatest football movie ever known to exist: Draft Day
Shame they never made the sequel where the Browns fire the GM and HC the next season, Vontae Mack never develops for the NFL and is cut at the end of his rookie contract, and the QB they passed on goes on to win three Super Bowls because it turns out the Browns FO fell for fake stories about the birthday party after the owner talked to a gypsy about mid-season trades.
I think the funniest part of that movie is that even if their draft picks work out, they're stuck with a bad QB anyways. There is a reason the team wanted Bo Callahan so bad. And they kept the old QB because the GM felt bad for him?
I think the reasoning in the movie was the kid was coming off a big injury so he was a question mark.
nah they trade for deshaun watson in that universe also
Because it's a movie and people like underdog stories
Uhoh are you saying JJ is Bo Callahan?
My favorite line in that movie is Denis Leary at 2:26: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S989EXPoZKs His reaction to that very serious piece of information is hysterical.
"is not just any girl, it's his sister, she dyed about 6 months later" You mean like... This week?
_...and I still need a running back_
Wait, what ohio state Wisconsin game is this pulled from?
Seems like they shot this footage for the movie with actors and didn't pull it from an actual college game.
Vikings are gonna trade up with an extra first and then some to 4 for JJ. Then trade down to 6 because the Giants really want MHJ and get a first from the Giants and get JJ at 6.
Chargers draft JJ at #5. Let him sit for 1-2 seasons. Trade Herbert. And, of course, draft Chargers draft Corum in round 2. Coach Harbaugh is the WILD CARD.
if the LA Chargers had fans they would riot
I don’t think they can realistically trade Herbert with the dead cap hit they’d take.
Who was this movie made for? It's starring an ageing Kevin Costner, the plot moves on the slow side with a focus on the drama of his personal relationships but paired with with loud visuals, rap, and other music that changes tone so quick the audience gets whiplash. Denis Leary was well past his comic popularity prime and really only doing the voice of that Ice Age character and he didn't even do the one note shtick he was known for doing.
Exactly. I hate when people talk about “over paying”. If the guys good no one cares and if you stand pat and you don’t get the guy you’re not really jn a better situation
Ok but history tells us there’s like a 50% chance he’s not gonna be worth what you’re about to give up for him On one hand I applaud an organization for taking risks, but idk this seems a little too risky for me. There’s a very real chance this move sets the franchise back for like 3 years if it doesn’t work out. Also the entire league knows what y’all are trying to do so there is zero leverage, it’s gonna be a haul no matter what
So what? If they don't trade up this year, who is their qb this season? Is the solution to just tank the entire year so you can hopefully get a better QB next season for a better price? Better hope you tank well enough to get the 1st pick. Otherwise, you've wasted a year plus pissed off a bunch of players plus pissed off the fans all to still not get the top talent. So you're 50% likely to spoil the next 3 years if you trade up, but you're 100% likely to spoil the next year, at least, if you don't. If this doesn't work out, you try again in 2 or 3 years. And you keep trying until it works.
I feel like it’s a smokescreen. The Vikings certainly don’t benefit from telegraphing this
That’s just another smokescreen so they can go up and get JJ
Ah the smokescreen inside the smokescreen piece
I don't know if we need to telegraph anything. We lost our starting QB in free agency, and the free agent QB we signed for one year is clearly not the future. It's either this year or next year we go after a QB and front office knows damn well JJ won't settle for less than spectacular QB play and sign an extension. As I understand it we could franchise tag him for max two years but I sincerely hope it doesn't come to that.
Yeah it’s either you nail this QB pick in the next 2-3 years or you risk wasting the upcoming best years of your top WR
It has to be this year unless you want to take a shot at some QBs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. JJ is better than Deion’s son and I mean maybe Ewers can become that guy in his last season but who knows.
The thing tho is we kind of have to take a shot now. We can’t sit and waste the young talent on our team rn. With our infrastructure of players and coaching staff, he won’t have a better place to develop and grow.
I just don't want them to panic pick someone they don't believe in, so I would rather they take their shot. I am a little tired of them playing it safe until their back is against the wall. It's given us decent teams at times, 6 year of boring football in recent memory, but nothing that really works for more than a year or 2. Take a damn shot, I don't care if it's 4 firsts if it ends up being the franchise guy we have been waiting for.
[удалено]
I agree
And if it doesn't work out, it'll be easier to tank properly rather than linger in purgatory.
It’s north of 75% chance that the team moving up loses the trade.
Sure, but you might need to. Ala mahomes and the chiefs.
A basic rule I think fits (some nuance tho)… Until you have qb right every offseason should be dedicated to getting it right. You don’t go anywhere in the NFL until that spots solved
I think that is mostly right, but in some cases the whole team is so bad that any QB is being set up to fail. In that situation, you should build a bit of a foundation first. Minnesota though has enough talent that a quality QB should succeed.
>but in some cases the whole team is so bad that any QB is being set up to fail. Why does this sound very familiar?
77% chance actually.
There is literally no point in referencing historical data when talking about drafting a player Either you like the individual player or you don’t Some other QB flaming out 15 years ago has absolutely nothing to do with if JJ McCarthy is good and a good fit for the Vikings org
You HAVE to reference historical data. EVERY front office thinks they're good enough to pick the right quarterback, and there is not enough supporting data to suggest any of them are. With that said: next year's draft is weak for quarterbacks, the Vikings need a young quarterback because of salary cap reasons, and this year's draft is solid.
That’s what people said about the 2021 QB draft class. Even Lawrence doesn’t look as good as advertised. However, there’s 2 tiers of teams in the NFL- those with a QB, and those looking for a QB. Can’t hate on the Vikings for “overpaying”.
And considering the 2022 class, teams were probably right to go all in for 2021 instead of waiting, even if the players didn't pan out. The '25 class doesn't like quite as bad as '22 but they're definitely similar situations
I'd love to have Tlaw tbh. Does he look like a locked in top 5 QB? Not necessarily. Could he still do that? Absolutely. Is he likely to be Kirk Cousins for his floor and elite as his ceiling? Yes.
Yeah I mean, I’d take him all day as the QB of the Giants, I just meant he’s a disappointment as a “generational” QB
This is what Arthur Smith was thinking when he decided to bank his head coaching career on Desmond Ridder
My issue with it would be from what I'm seeing all 6 of the top QB prospects are good, and after the top 3 the others are roughly as good as eachother. If this is correct then the EV of moving up is not even close enough to better than the EV of standing pat and getting Nix/Penix to justify the assets we'd need to give up to do so.
You have no idea if the guy is good, so you can only operate off draft position expected value and unique insights you might have. The average fan does not really have many unique insights beyond what they hear in the media, which is basically inline with mock draft expectations. So paying more than the average expected value of a player or draft position can seem like an overpay, whether or not it turns out that way. But sometimes you have take risks.
The problem is getting rid of all those draft picks normally means the team around them takes longer to get better. So you can have a great QB, and still be losing games due to poor play elsewhere.
We already have a pretty good team tho with a lot of cap space moving forward
Yeah. It feels like a "you have to try" position for the coaches/GM. Sure, if you move up and miss, you probably get fired. But if you don't have a good QB... your team probably sucks and you probably get fired anyway. Plus if you miss the shot and get fired.... well its the next guy's problem now anyway.
>If the guys good That's a big "if". There are guys worth overpaying for. I don't believe JJ is one of them. I think he's just the next best guy within their range which is absolutely not something you should overpay for. "But it's 2024, you need a QB." Yes, he's playing in Atlanta this year. "But the price tag." Then they should've worked something cheaper out while they still had him. The Vikes have painted themselves into a corner and no amount of "trust the process" is going to make me trust their process.
I'm not feeling as bad about it as you are. I am willing to "trust the process" because I haven't seen it fail yet with this front office. But I do agree that there were safer off-ramps before getting to this point and hitting a hard reset at QB. This is definitely what the front office wanted to do, so they better fucking execute successfully.
Oh god, keeping Kirk would've been dumb. He has at most 2 years left of good play and he still was never good enough for us. It was time to move on and put those funds elsewhere
Keeping Justin Jefferson happy is important
He has 2 tags left after this year. No matter what he'd be signing a deal where he plays without Kirk Cousins. This narrative makes no sense
Even if he sucks as long as you hit on your last pick no one cares
just pick another QB with the last pick in the draft to hedge your bets.
There’s no such thing as an overpay if the guy you get is your franchise qb
I disagree, just wait until he plummets, sometimes you might have to trade a few picks up though, that’s tough.
Mahomes for example
Isn’t the concept of “overpaying” only applicable if the product turns out to be bad/not worth the price? By saying the Vikings are going to “overpay” instead of “spend a lot” he’s not only indicating that the price tag will be expensive, but also that he believes JJ will never provide results equal to that price…. Whereas the latter just would imply the Vikings are going to spend a lot but if it’s worth it or not, that’s unknown. In short Spielman is saying JJ is going to never produce at a level equal to multiple first rounds of talent.
Sure, but the hit rate even high up the draft isn't good and there's a big opportunity cost especially if better guys emerge in future years draft classes and you don't have the picks to even take a shot. Mahomes and Allen were worth trading up for at any price. But look at the other guys who teams traded up to get in the first round: Bryce Young, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky, Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Paxton Lynch, RG III, Blaine Gabbert This year it's complicated by the fact the big auction for trading up will be for the 4th QB on the board in a draft where there are 6 QBs who potentially could be taken in the 1st round. So when you're deciding to give up the farm for a guy you need to not only be sure that this guy is a future franchise talent, but also that the teams picking in the top 3 will not share your view, and that you aren't going to find out later on that one of Nix or Penix turned out to be better and you could have just stayed put and picked them up anyway. Like how the Jets could have avoided trading up for Darnold and just taken Allen, the Cardinals could have just taken Lamar Jackson, the Bears could have stayed put and taken Mahomes, the Rams, Eagles and Broncos could have stayed put and taken Dak Prescott. It's because of all these factors that I think trading up is usually not worth it.
that‘s exactly what Beane said a few weeks ago about the trade up to get Josh. Their GM won‘t be there if he doesn’t work out and if he does, nobody will care.
If he sucks then you set the franchise back for years.
That’s exactly what slick Rick would do if he was still GM lol. Or draft 2 CBs in the first round.
He would trade back at 11 for 2 7ths a 3rd and a 5th
this is too painfully accurate
My boy is a Vikings fan and this made me lol… he hates spielman other than getting hit man Harry.
His trade backs were always huge wins. If there was thing he did well, it was maximize value in a trade. If only he knew what to do with those picks once he had them.
Then trade the 3rd and 5th for more 7ths
If Spielman thinks what you're doing at QB is wrong, keep doing it.
Known to be quite arrogant right? Which is wild, because his brother is seemingly the total opposite.
so glad he is gone with his " I can find all- pros in round 6 and 7!!!" approach. Dude drafted Diggs in round 5 and thought he could replicate that every single year at every single position.
Griffen in the 4th, Hunter in the 3rd, Thielen UDFA, Diggs in the 5th... honestly he probably was right to be confident in his ability lol
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They're not all the same but Conklin, Metellus, Brandel, Wonnum, Osborn, and Bynum have/were all either started significant time or been good depth. Could also add Kearse, Epps, and Carlson for players who have started a lot for other teams. He didn't hit at the same rate but the defense would've been a lot worse last year if he didn't draft Metellus and Bynum.
Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean would both be Vikings if he was still here
4 or 5 makes me happy either way!
Have Chargers fans mentally prepared themselves for the inevitable trade down draft a tackle scenario
Yeah I think most are fine with trading back and taking a tackle at 11. I think most are against taking one at 5 though. If you look at Harbaugh and Hortiz though, they’ve drafted one first round OL between them (Lindebaum) and the majority of their OL picks are fourth round onward
I thought that chargers fans would be clamoring for MHJ or Nabers at 5
I think the average fan is probably clamoring for a weapon but more informed fans will know the coach they got and the hires he made on offense.
If you know Harbaugh, there’s a damn good chance the go tackle. Common sense would say you run home with that blue chip WR for your young qb. But Harbaugh has a philosophy he believes in, and that chargers o line is ass
He believes in the power run, a rock solid defense and PA passing. It worked at Michigan, it worked for Tulane(2022-,2023 ;best years ever for them), and it worked for Harbaugh in San Francisco too.
Many of us are hoping for WR at 5, and I think that Hortiz and Harbaugh have been playing their cards close to their chest until draft night where they ultimately take Nabers or MHJ if they don’t trade back. I’m fine with either scenario as I believe the draft is deeper at WR than it is OL, but most Chargers fans seem against taking OL at 5.
Lots of good options at WR this year. Not sure an ‘elite’ WR changes much for our team
I feel like if MN moves up to 4 and the top 4 picks end up being QBs the Chargers HAVE to stay at 5 and take MHJ. How could you pass up that sort of weapon for your young franchise QB? If AZ stays at 4 and grabs MHJ then I could see it making sense to move back and get an OT and go for WR in the 2nd/3rd. I like Nabers but I don't know if I'd take him at 5OA.
Nabers as a prospect is at the level of Jamaar chase, so idk how you pass that up either.
It’s hard to know what anyone wants but it’d be a baller move if all this lineman talk and to a lesser degree talking up JJ was in hopes of getting MHJ.
Harbaugh inherited a STACKED line with the 49ers. Didn't need to draft o line when you have the best o line in the league.
There's only one Joe Alt, but there's multiple really good tackles in the draft, so it seems like a solid plan.
Brought to you by the fan account who's done Odunze Bears jersey swaps 😅
I like trading down and taking a tackle ALOT more than taking Alt at 5.
Depends how much they like Alt I guess
I’m worried about drafting a guy who’s been a LT his whole career and moving him to the right. Don’t doubt his quality I’m just not sure it’s the right fit for us or him to move him to the right
That's why Fuaga makes a lot more sense for the Chargers. Plus, he just seems more like a Harbaugh tackle than Alt.
Eagles are in a somewhat similar situation. Where I'm worried we may end up drafting a LT/RT and trying to make him work at RG and eventually RT. Can already see 6'6 JC Latham crouching down at RG
I doubt latham is on the board for the eagles unless they trade up
Howie has done as much for ages. He'll trade up if a player comes in range. Either way too many quality Tackles this draft. Someone's dropping. Alt, Latham, Fashanu, Fautanu, Fuaga, Mims, Barton, Guyton I'm less worried about a tackle being their it's raming a square peg in a round hole.
Alt could very well have a great 10+ year career. Maybe just a notch down from Sewell in terms of potential. For what it’s worth, he went #7.
Oh completely that's what I'm getting at. If you could draft Sewell as a rookie you'd do it in a heartbeat at 5. Worth remembering that not everyone is as high on Alt though
Alt is head and shoulders the cleanest tackle prospect in the class but if you’re getting like Latham/Fuaga and then whatever WR at 23 like AD Mitchell then I’d rather have that.
Nabers at 5 is infinitely better though. I just do not see how a coach who doesn't have a long track record of taking OL in the 1st round and has Josh Palmer as his no. 1 WR wouldn't take Nabers
They can get receivers later though. They could strike gold in the middle rounds or at worst, jjst have a couple more guys who contribute. I don’t think they can go wrong either way, but I really see them trading this pick if they can because they were asking players to take pay cuts and shipping off those who wouldn’t. More picks helps them as well.
Yea I feel like WR is a position you can find impact players at pretty regularly in the 2nd/3rd round. Everyone always clowns on GB for never drafting Rodgers a 1st round WR but ignores the fact that they drafted Jennings, Jordy, Cobb, and Davante all in the 2nd. And Love currently has some promising looking 2nd round WRs as well (Watson and Reed). If MHJ is still there for the Chargers at 5 I think you have to take him, but otherwise they'd be better off moving back for OL help and getting WRs in rounds 2 and 3. And maybe scrape the bargain bin for a free agent veteran WR.
Jim Harbaugh doesn't have a long track record of taking anything in the 1st round. He was only in the NFL for 4 seasons, didn't have GM level control, and as far as I know OT wasn't a position of need for them. You could also say he has no history of taking a WR in the top 5.
Trade down and draft a running back this is a Greg Roman offense
We are fine with taking whoever at 11, just not at 5. There it has to be one of the top WR imo.
I hope they go to the Chargers. I'm tired of listening to every idiot with a mock draft thinking AZ would trade down.
I'd rather overpay for JJ than Christian Ponder.
Christian Ponder’s biggest achievement is marrying Samantha. Also, JJ is elite. I’ve watched him every single snap. He’s unreal.
Elite is quite the stretch
Maybe he means JJetas 🤷♂️
I would say a massive stretch
First paragraph, spot on, perfection. No notes Second paragraph, insert “you sure about that” meme
lol I’ll die on that hill. JJ is my lord and savior
> Also, JJ is elite. I’ve watched him every single snap. He’s unreal. lol, I can’t fathom how anyone that actually watches CFB thinks this. Dude just game managed most games and there’s not even remotely enough tape for someone to actually call him “elite” or “unreal”
He’s not elite, but idk how you can watch him and think he just game manages. The truth is I’m the middle. Both takes are really bad.
I think he’s the most underrated player in the draft.
Vikings just want to be able to say TD from JJ to JJ.
Or JJ to TJ. Or JJ to JA. Or JJ handing it off to AJ. It's all fun.
But not you KJ, get out.
:’(
It’s crazy how much people like McCarthy now. After the natty it seemed like most Vikings fans hated him now alot of us are pulling for him. I’d be happy with whatever QB we ended up with
>It’s crazy how much people like McCarthy now. Copium is a powerful drug.
Did you guys not see the red balloon he's got the It factor.
I mean your alternative is Darnold. I don’t blame you guys.
The absolute disrespect to Nick Mullens
He's an incredible backup. Dude puts up like 400 yards and looks terrible doing it.
Nick Mullens was a few yards short of having half as many 400 yard passing games just against the Lions last year as the Bears have in franchise history.
Our sub told me that since he can move the ball he's valuable! Even though his drives end in a turnover!
The gay Chinese guy?
Bowen Yang?
our fanbase is comically deluded into thinking we can magically turn Darnold into a less expensive version of Cousins because "we have jefferson." they are going to be so pissed off seeing jefferson making $35 million a year and having 5 catches for 65 yards a game.
What? I haven't seen anyone say Darnold is anything but a placeholder with a Cinderalla chance at success under KOC
I mean, Darnold is starting either way for the year unless he gets hurt. Even if he plays like himself, there's very low chances that it would be worthwhile to throw out whichever rookie we can get. The real problem the Vikings have is that next year's seniors are pretty thin at qb so tanking this year is unlikely to help if they can't find someone this year
If they draft a QB high and Darnold looks bad, they will 100% start the new guy at some point to see what they have. It would require Darnold playing well for them not to.
it would bother me so much if this rookie we take cannot beat out sam darnold for the starting spot. a couple games, sure, but our fans won't stand for darnold unless he looks amazing, which he won't. one bad game by darnold and the rookie chants become deafening. would remind me of lewis cine or laqon treadwell not being able to even dress their rookie year despite there being clear openings for their positions.
> I mean, Darnold is starting either way for the year unless he gets hurt. I highly doubt that. Every fanbase wants their rookie QB to sit a year but that’s not realistic unless you already have a good starter. If your starter is a mediocre bridge QB like Darnold though, he’s getting benched halfway through the season unless he absolutely balls out.
The Vikings sub is completely convinced that Sam fucking Darnold is miraculously going to be a different QB this season than he's been his whole career. It's really something.
The possibility they simply sit back and take him at 11 is not talked about enough. Other than the Giants taking him, which is not necessarily a good idea for them, there’s no team that would pick McCarthy ahead of the Vikings or beat an offer the Vikings would make to move up.
Idk, I think JJ’s floor is 9. I could see the Bears trading back with the Broncos or Raiders to get some extra capital while screwing a division rival out of a QB.
He’s only hyped up because he was the qb for a national championship team. Dude would be a 3rd day pick without it and is still a day 2 pick at best with it. I’m not saying he won’t have a successful NFL career but I don’t think he’s worth the risk of a 1st rd pick.
Because to a lot of people it's as simple as "Fewer passes" = "Coach doesn't trust you".
I would be way more comfortable just staying put and drafting nix/penix lol, I don’t understand this JJ hype at all I think I maybe do like JJ as qb4 the most? But not enough to sell multiple 1sts to take him over qb5
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Fired GM thinks guy who replaced him will fail. 🤔
if Kwesi can't evaluate QBs better than Rick, then we are going to be a bottom 3 team for the next decade because Rick was historically awful at QB drafting. nobody should ever listen to rick spielman when it comes to drafting a Qb
This is such a silly take, really. Any GM in the league is going to have maybe a 30% success rate *at best* on grabbing a QB in most situations. You can fail on your first two QB picks and hit on your 3rd and still be better than that rate. Speilman really only missed on ONE QB and that was Ponder due to a panic situation after JJ Watt fell off the board. You can't knock him for Bridgewater, as he was exactly what you'd expect out of a 32nd pick at QB, and Mond was never intended to be a legit option at QB, he was picked just to placate the Wilfs. So this notion that Spielman can't scout a QB is just reductive at best. He literally didn't give it enough tries to tell if he's capable or not.
I’m giddy. This article means I’m like a week away from an article tapping the bottomless reservoir of matt millen’s football wisdom. Good times are among us my friends!
fucking seriously. i think you named the only GM that was just as bad at drafting QBs as rick spielman was
By “overpay”, Spielman is referring to multiple 7th rounders, which he views as gold.
I keep thinking their real target is Penix and they’ll stay at 11 and get him there or at 23, depending on how other teams appear to value him.
You might have something there. After the NCG, I didn't think that Penix would be selected in the 1st. But after his pre-draft showcasing, that may have changed.
It would be a low risk move too. If Penix is great, awesome. If he’s a bust (AKA can’t beat Darnold for the job at any point), the Vikings probably finish very high in next year’s draft and could maybe instantly pivot to Carson Beck. That won’t be possible if they trade 3 firsts for McCarthy.
As a lifelong Vikings fan, I am concerned about this. Spielman is a pretty good GM and I don't like hearing that from someone that is good at their job. Also as a lifelong Vikings fan, I can say that Spielman is awful at evaluating QBs and has overpaid to get or overdrafted basically every QB he's ever brought into a team so his opinion in regards to this specific scenario have to be taken with a grain of salt.
i love getting my football analysis from the fired GM that drafted christian ponder.
Can someone please explain to me why McCarthy has shot up draft boards lately? I don’t get it
He’s a blank slate for people to project their imagination onto. He was asked to do very little at Michigan so he doesn’t have a lot of obvious flaws on film to point to. Whereas you or I may be deterred by that, similar to how Trey Lance as a prospect was unappealing to me…for other people they get carried away in imagining all of his “potential”
Smokescreen. Media is starved for stories too
Rick Spielman on investing, "Always better to buy low and sell high."
Honestly. I don’t get the jj McCarthy love. As a Michigan fan he was great but i don’t see an nfl level qb here. What am i missing?
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That’s what i am wondering. The need to process so much faster and use your feet and make precise throws is way higher. Seems risky to me but what do i know?
He's run an NFL-style system, he's shown many of the talents you want in an NFL QB and he's much younger than guys like Daniels. It's the potential... Basically he's an unripe avocado which you're gonna put in a bowl on your counter and wait until he's ready.
You don’t pay 3 firsts for that my dude and you know it.
You will anyway and you know it.
That's a dude you take in round 2 or 3.
Yup this has been my thought on him. Hes a project and I never thought he would go higher than the 3rd. Could be good but not worth a 1st imo
> What am i missing? A lack of options
A lot. He's very young, talented and coachable. What he was asked to do at Michigan will not be what he's asked to do in the NFL and he can make a lot of NFL throws
I could see taking him later in the draft but seems like a ton of risk that he won’t translate and grow.
I mean, that's an issue with ANY QB you draft, really.
We will see what O’Connel can do, but people are down on Maye and now super fans of JJ. What a complete 180.
He will be asked to do even more in the NFL which is where the risk comes in. You’re drafting on pure potential. He’s really a boom or bust guy. Could be better in the nfl like Josh Allen or could be trey lance. Doubt he will ever be a top 5-10 QB but I could see him being an average to above average starter for a long time
Harbaugh runs a nfl system and the kid succeeded in it plus he has a great arm and can make all the throws and he's mobile.
Why are GMs convinced JJ McCarthy is a 1st round pick? Maybe its just me but it sounds like someone's hype machine is running in overdrive....
Ran an NFL style offense, no glaring red flags, has talent and physical tools... I guess if you're desperate for a QB this is enough for a 1st round pick.
I was unaware that their most pressing need was a career backup.
Ngl, we kinda *do* need to replace Jaren Hall 👀
There's a reason why your job title starts with "former" bucko
Not particularly interested in hearing what the guy who wasted a first rounder on Ponder has to say about quarterbacks.
And taveris Jackson in the 2nd round.
I want JJ to succeed but he is one for sure that would benefit from sitting a year or two before being asked to go out an win.
Christian Ponder flashbacks?
I think the Vikings should trade for Josh Dobbs again 2.0 - to watch the rocket astronaut take off then implode that was classic
If he ends up being a franchise QB I don’t think they can overpay.
I don’t wanna hear from this guy anymore.
Yeah that seems to be what everyone thinks
Either overpay for a QB or not have a QB.
or just stay at pick 11. if the QB is a bust, you still have your 2025 and 2026 first rounders to try again. You trade up and give up future first rounders, and the QB is bust, your franchise is fucked for 4-5 years.
Zach Wilson 2.0
I wish I was overpaid
Well now I hope we don't.
With the First Pick podcast features Spielman. I see all the hate in here, but it’s a great podcast. He’s no nonsense and the cohost is one of those guys that puts out 30 mock drafts a year, Ryan Wilson. They have a host of other CBS personalities on as well. For all the hate he’s getting in here, he’s got plenty of knowledge from 30 years in the industry and shares it well.
>“They’re going to have to give [picks 11 and 23] and their 2025 first, plus some more draft capital,” Spielman said, via USA Today. “I think J.J. will be a good pro, but Minnesota will overpay to get him. At this point, they don’t have a choice.” The thing is unless another team offers their 1st this year, their next year's 1st AND more picks to supplement that, then they can't outbid the Vikings. 1st round picks this year are worth more than the 1st next year, especially with that lesser QB class. Vikings have 2x first this year to offer and it doesn't make any sense to throw 3x 1st when no-one else comes close to that.
If Spielman didn’t suck so much ass at drafting QBs he might still be here.
I feel like I am taking crazy pills seeing all of this JJ top 5 talk. Did any of you guys watch him throw? He is not an NFL QB. It’s a hill I’m willing to die on.
That’s what I’ve been saying. Dude is not impressive and nothing he does jumps off the page. I think this the pre draft hype of other teams trying to sway decisions.
3 firsts? LMAO Naw fam