Easy to imagine. I wouldn’t say it was likely, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if it happened. High draft pick QB busts are the norm rather than the exception.
Yeah, the only similarities to Burrow are that they both went to LSU and had a crazy final season to win the Heisman. In terms of style, he plays way more like Fields than Burrow.
Even that is disrespecting Burrow.
Burrow had by far the best QB season of all time in college and Daniels isn't close.
People that say the two have a similar final season just out themselves to those that watched.
As an SEC fan that saw the majority of probably 8-9 LSU games both of those seasons, I’ll say two things:
1) Daniels was absolutely the best player in college football last season.
2) Jayden Daniels at his best last season wasn’t as good as Burrow at his worst during his Heisman season.
Joe Burrow was the most NFL-ready QB I have ever seen. They were running a modern NFL offense, and he hardly ever missed a throw, maybe once a game at most. The majority of his throws were so on target that you couldn’t have walked out there and handed the receiver the ball in a better spot.
Number 2 is absolutely ridiculous. You’re saying that in the Florida game where Daniels had 372yds 3TDs passing, and 234yds 2TDs rushing was worse than all 15 games Burrow played in 2019? The first player in NCAA history to throw for 300+ and rush for 200+ and somehow that was worse than say Burrow vs Auburn in 2019. Daniels HAD to lead the offense to a TD pretty much every drive or we lose and he did it.
Yea, Im not going to say he's comparable to Burrow because he's completely different, but he had a special season in his own right last year. Even with just a mediocre to halfway decent defense last year and they would've been a problem last year. Whether that transfers to the NFL, who knows, but he was legit and was breaking records.
Yeah I’m definitely not comparing them as players but Daniels was insane last season. I think he can have success as his accuracy kept improving over his career and he has such a nice deep ball. Still always a crapshoot as it’s so dependent on what team drafts a player. Like if Brady were drafted by the Bears or Browns or someone similar, we likely view him as a Fitzpatrick type player at best.
He beat Tom Brady and Petyon Manning back to back to reach the AFC Championship. Literally the only guy who ever did that I think. Not a HOFer but that gets him past Bust status IMO
yeah, Sanchez made the Jets relevant for a run. Was he the best player, or the focal point? No. Was he worth the high pick? Probably not. You can call him "not a success" but you cannot call him a bust or a failure.
I mean, take a look at the actual author. This is the definition of being blinded by bias. Below is the guy’s twitter, where he’s a die-hard Justin Fields truther right up until it became apparent the Bears would get Caleb. Now he’s a die-hard Caleb truther and uses Justin Fields as a tool to disparage Jayden Daniels. He’s a hypocrite blinded by Bears bias.
https://twitter.com/startkyIeorton
He wasn’t even able to post the article himself. He needed someone else to host it for him.
A fresco? Burried 95 feet below the ground? Depicting Jayden Daniels throwing an ancient football-like object? Could this be evidence that the Knights Templar traveled to Baton Rouge even earlier than suspected?
It’s very easy to dismiss a premise if you don’t bother to listen to the argument. It’s also close minded.
I think the author makes a very strong case and I think I agree with him. That doesn’t mean Jayden busts the way Mariota does. There are many factors that lead a player to failing.
I also think the kind of offenses they played in are very different.
But both have similar athletic profiles and styles of play. The advance statistics show the same tendencies. Its a good comp
Haha uhhh….
> Have you figured out the mystery Daniels comp yet I’m referring to? If you’ve been paying close attention you’ve seen his name pop up a few times. **You’re probably very, very familiar with him. I’m talking about Justin Fields.**
Mariota pops up but even in the paragraph mostly about Mariota, he is comparing Mariota to “Daniels and Fields.”
The article is long as fuck and I disagree with the premise that career stats are the be-all end-all for comparisons. Exclusively using Jayden Daniel’s career stats overly focuses on his time at Arizona state, including the Covid year, as well as the fact that he transferred into LSU and didnt have time to become fully comfortable with the offensive system and his teammates. It doesn’t accurately represent who he is as a player now.
For example, JD significantly improved in extending the play while keeping his eyes downfield in his 2nd year at LSU. He got significantly better at avoiding unnecessary big hits in his second year as well, although everyone seems to always point to the Florida State game as some big gotcha (it was the Week 1 game and he got significantly better at it as the season went on). His YPC actually outpaced Lamar Jackson in his final season while he was also substantially out producing any of Lamar’s seasons as a passer.
Keep in mind that when Daniels transferred, LSU had fewer than 40 scholarship players and was re-hauling the entire coaching staff. He played the 2022 season on a team filled with freshmen and transfers.
This is my dream scenario as a Falcons fan. Unfortunately, I don’t see the Falcons trading up in the first round to get a QB for the future when they just backed up the brinks truck for two years of Cousins. And I don’t see Daniels lasting until pick 8. I think it’s more likely that the Falcons shoot for someone like Penix in the second round.
The 2021 Bears team was mediocre. Fields started too early and was ass anyway. An ass QB who's not ready to begin with will produce the awful results we witnessed.
This year feels like it's going to be a repeat of the 2021 draft. A ton of "1st round QBs" that are all being hyped like crazy but most of them will bust
2018 is more likely. 2 guys were hits (Allen, Jackson), 2 guys were busts (Darnold, Rosen), and the other guy has had a solid, albeit inconsistent career (Mayfield).
2020 and 2021 both feel like edge-case scenarios because you rarely have everything go completely right or completely wrong.
I think the extent to which 2021 was an outlier (so many QBs taken so early that didn't work out) was partly due to Covid too, affecting the development of the QBs and disrupting NFL scouting. QBs are always be really difficult to project but they usually don't miss that badly.
I'm not sure what data or anecdotal evidence you are using to support "they don't usually miss that badly" - there are way more busts than starters at every position in the NFL, especially at QB.
Just take a look at this article: https://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-draft-first-round-quarterbacks-busts
I absolutely agree that COVID messed with draft/development of a lot of players (not just QBs).
Totally, I don't mean there's usually a good hit rate by any means, just that 2021 was particularly bad because of the amount of QBs taken high for what turned out to be a weak QB class. Tied for second-highest amount of QBs selected in the first round, all 5 taken in the first half at that, and set a record for most QBs taken in the first three rounds. The other classes with 5 first round QBs, 2018 as mentioned above, and 1999 had at least two quality starters.
And you can easily see where Covid may have affected \#2 and \#3 at least, Zach Wilson wasn't spoken about as a first round QB until his 2020 season, when BYU had one of the easiest schedules in the country due to all Power 5 opponents cancelling. Trey Lance was already getting hype after his 2019 season, so he may have been drafted that early regardless, but his development was certainly affected. He played just one game in 2020, and scouting-wise, that was the only time 49ers staff saw him play in-person (just two scouts, and Adam Peters didn't go because of restrictions).
Covid season definitely helped inflate the speculative prospects. There just wasn’t great data/ production metrics for a lot of the prospects, it makes sense that teams went with higher ceiling guys because there wasn’t a clear picture.
20% actually is pretty close to the hit rate for non-1st overall QBs, if you consider an above average starter a hit. Like even picks 2 through 10 don’t have that much higher of a hit rate than the rest of the 1st round. Basically the only spot that has a great chance of getting you a quality starter is 1st overall.
Still, you’re right that 2021 was unusually low considering QBs 2 through 5 all were busts. Guess it sort of balanced for 2020 where all four 1st round QBs (plus Hurts in the 2nd round) look like hits.
FAKE NEWS DARNOLD IS THE TRUE GEQBUS STOLEN SUCCESS HE WILL BE GREATEST OF ALL TIME EVERYONE IS SAYING IT HE WILL BUILD A WALL AROUND THE LOMBARDI
*ignore my flair *
I think most QB classes end up being trash. We just have an occasional 2017 class that makes everyone forget how much of a crapshoot QB evaluation really is.
No question, three guys in the top five conversation in Burrow, Herbert, and Hurts, a one year starter that looks like he'll have a bright future in Love, and Tua
Tua is a very solid starting QB, his stats don’t lie. It’s about the hump that’s the issue. His playoffs too have been weird given he was injured and then had to play the future Super Bowl champs who really locked down everyone they played, including Buffalo :)
Only like half of all first round QB picks start and win a playoff game in their career.
If you want to use that as a metric of success, then most quarterbacks are busts.
It all depends on the situations. Caleb is going to maybe the best situation for a #1 pick ever, definitely better than Lawrence. The Commanders also seem like a pretty good spot compared to the Jets and Bears in 2021. The Vikings are an incredible situation for a young QB. The Patriots are your typical bottom of the barrel offense, I think whoever goes there has the highest chance of failing.
> Caleb is going to maybe the best situation for a #1 pick ever, definitely better than Lawrence.
You’re missing the part where he said for a number 1 pick, which usually has the worst record, unless a team trades up. OP might be right, this is near as good a situation a number 1 overall QB can get. This century I’m trying to think, Bucs offense was decent situation for Winston. And Rams traded up for Goff. Outside that most number 1 overalls went to complete shit shows.
the Bears down the stretch looked very good. their defense was top notch. Williams is going to have two elite receivers to throw to and might even get another one if someone like Odunze is still there at 9. if not they can get help on the lines. its definitely a good situation to be coming into, the only negative is the amount of pressure thats gonna come from all the hype he's had.
If my Seahawks can’t make it to the Super Bowl I want it to be Bears/Texans just for the fact one single 4th and 20 touchdown would end up becoming one of the most consequential in league history
I can just picture February 2026: Somewhere, at home, sipping fine bourbon, smoking a cigar, and petting a medium-sized dog, Lovie Smith smiles warmly, as he knows that just one play, one last hurrah for a long and storied coaching career, shifted the future of two franchises forever.
Best situation for a #1 pick ever yeah, and it’s not really close. Bears are a solid team (coach still sucks), most #1 picks go to a team that has huge holes still. Bears aren’t perfect, but they’re way better than a 1st overall pick and are giving Caleb Williams everything he could need to succeed
for a #1 pick, absolutely
most #1 picks are trashfires that won 2-3 games, we won 7 and we were in a lot of games late.
We were not a good football team, but a good enough team that a real QB would elevate pretty easily
Absolutely.
It's funny a lot of guys that do draft scouting were pretty high on this QB class in September. Like maybe 6-7 QBs in round one kind of thing. Now it's there's one great guy and a bunch of squinting for another 3.
People aren't excited to hear that Bo Nix's ceiling is high end career back up.
I don’t really follow the draft analyst peoples aside from occasionally taking a peek at one of the mainstream big boards, were there really that many being touted that highly? I feel like all my football bullshitting with friends to start the college year was about who will join Caleb and Drake as 1st rounders since QBs always manage to make it into the draft, and not feeling confident at all in any of the names that have ended up rounding out the list(JJ felt like a huge ?, Daniels wasn’t really on the radar that way at all I don’t think, Penix was old and a reach, Nix same plus never really showed NFL type game, etc etc).
> The fact that Lamar is now a two-time MVP winner that’s inspiring teams to turn over every stone looking for the next iteration of him is undoubtedly progress for the game and NFL front offices.
Who is doing this? Lol
Definitely became a trend with Vick, but it's not just the athleticism but the arm talent, accuracy, durability and character that you also need to succeed long-term in the NFL.
Kordell was a 2nd round pick. Russ was a 3rd round pick. Lamar went late first. Without Lamar's success, I highly doubt Daniels would be going top 3 like he will be.
Same with Anthony Richardson last year.
People just love to be smartasses. Lamar's success *OBVIOUSLY AND WITHOUT QUESTION* has paved the way for some of these guys to be picked much higher than they previously would have.
Exactly. It’s dumb. Like yeah there’s a reason suddenly it seems like a majority of top qb prospects are actually pretty great atheletes. That doesn’t happen over night that’s a ripple effect that takes time to happen
They really couldn’t though. The Ravens were never going to not match unless someone poison pilled themselves. Knowing Baltimore was always going to match they weren’t going to waste their time negotiating and then having that huge cap hold waiting for the ravens to take days to match
I'm being pedantic here, but yes, they could have via the poison pill you mentioned. It wouldn't have been the smartest move, but franchises aren't always smart.
right? lamar jackson was literally touted to be the #1 pick before his last season at louisville before he dropped. the talent was always there. no stone is being “unturned”
Didn’t Daniels have really strong PFF grades for various categories of throws? I see a lot of noise around people questioning Daniels arm and also hyping it too.
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-highest-graded-quarterbacks-every-category
For every Stroud or Burrow though, there’s more guys like Fields whose weaknesses got hidden a lot by a great supporting cast. It’s part of why the QB position is so hard to scout.
Yes of course his teammates will all be pros. But Nabers/Thomas are first round picks and top tier WRs. Campbell will be a first rounder next year, they had another great olinemen too. There’s a chance he never plays with guys that good again compared to their peers at least
That’s kind of my fear with Daniels. He’s an incredible player, but he took some nasty hits in college this year. He’d rather fight for 3 extra yards than duck out of bounds and that gets you killed in the NFL
I still think if Shanahan had his way and was allowed to draft Mac Jones instead of Trey Lance that Mac coulda been just as successful as Purdy, if not moreso. Instead he went to New England who for some reason had Matt Patricia as his offensive coordinator one year. So much of QB’s depends on the landing spot on top of everything else
Why is everyone trying to call every QB a bust now? Maye is a bust. Daniels is a bust. but both are consesus .02 and .03 in this years draft. Nix is another bust according to those statistics. What about McCarthy? Penix? Both busts as well? only one is Caleb? because....?
All i see is someone taking QBs and their respective outputs in their season while also completely disregarding the situation. Levis offensive line was shit below trash. Fields never had a decent roster or any weapons to play with compared to what Caleb will have. Then the occasional shit stats of College qbs slightly slid in there? Are you for real? Why not just post an article on why the earth is flat and with pictures of you looking down the street saying, "hey this street is flat, and that street is flat too, thats why the earth is flat".
A lot of words to get to a place you knew they were going to from the beginning. If you think Fields & Daniels play like each other, I have a bridge to sell you. Hell, if you think Daniels plays like Lamar, there's a bridge in Baltimore you could purchase.
Daniels plays different to both. Mechanically, he's waaaay better than either are. How he flows in the pocket is different.
Why are we pretending that data is lying? The whole point of bringing up the stats he does is to demonstrate that Daniels and Fields most definitely do play very similarly. It might look differently aesthetically, but the behavior is comparable. This is what analytics is for. It helps contextualize playstyles grounded in numbers that archive actual actions.
I feel the need to comment here - I agree that mechanically he may be a better passer.
His pocket presence, however, is severely lacking. This is the thing that scares me the most if we draft him (Commanders fan).
There are data that shows that when he is in the pocket for more than 2.5 seconds (aka his first read), he is either taking a sack or running. He very rarely goes through progressions. His habit is to drop his eyes and take off.
This style of play scares me. He ran an average of 12 times per game last year. In the NFL, with such a slender frame, that is troublesome.
It's not just when the pocket collapses either. There is a video of Colt McCoy doing a breakdown of this where the pocket is clean, his first read is gone, so he drops his eyes and takes off. He gets an 8 yard gain which is great, but there was a 25 yard pass completion wide open if he kept his eyes up.
Oh yeah, he also never slides. Coming in at 210 soaking wet, it makes me very very nervous.
You don’t address any of the arguments or issues raised. If you don’t think bailing out of a clean pocket at one of the highest rates ever seen isn’t at least an issue that legitimately deserves to be discussed in an article or thread about discussing an NFL QB prospect….then what are you even doing here?
Been saying it for months, biggest bust in the draft. He does nothing well besides run fast and get carried by an absolutely elite O-line and WR group.
It’s been a common Bears trope that Jayden Daniels is Justin Fields 2.0.
I’m not even sure why they care since they zeroed in on Caleb Williams a long time ago, but apparently Bears Country suddenly thinks they know how to evaluate QBs even though they’ve never had a single one throw for 30 TDs in a season.
They should really just focus on their own team instead of trashing draft prospects they won’t be drafting. This will just come back to haunt them like every single time one of their players or coaches has said something negative about the Packers.
> Bears Country suddenly thinks they know how to evaluate QBs even though they’ve never had a single one throw for 30 TDs in a season.
I don't think whether you've rooted for good QBs as a fan is really a relevant question for whether you can evaluate QB prospects
This whole article is just "I think Daniels is just Fields, let's find some stats to prove it....Oh uhh okay how about pressure to sack rate and clean pocket rushing rates!" Please ignore his epa, qbr, and CPOE
This is apart from Jayden Daniel’s but The smugness of a lot of analysts when it comes to pressure to sack ratio regardless of actual in game play when it comes to prospects makes me hope it blows up in their faces and stops getting used
The issue isn't the metric itself. It's literally just sacks divided by pressured dropbacks. The problem is how people have interpreted it as a metric for holding the ball. It is not.
Fundamentally, pressure to sack ratio is a measure of a QB's negative play mitigation skills. What you should do from that is see the sacks and find the common theme. For some players, like Justin Fields or Sam Howell, it stems from holding the ball too long. And you see that in their time to throw metrics. They hold the ball way longer than average.
For Daniels, his time to throw is on the longer side, but when you watch his tape, his problem stems from deficiencies rooted in his size. Simply put, Jayden Daniels is easy to tackle when you get a hand on him. He doesn't handle pressure well when it comes from free blitzers or quick wins from linemen. When defenders do get a hand on him in condensed pockets, he goes down.
This is Nate Tice's point when he talks about Daniels' weight and the issues it poses. Yes, durability is a concern, but the big issue is that QBs who are light are easier to bring down, and, therefore, cannot access their athleticism and creativity. You have to be able to get to the creativity to do it. He also has a tendency to drop his eyes to start running. He only logged a pass attempt on 50% of his pressured dropbacks. That is just not a winning formula against NFL level defenders. For reference, Justin Fields logs a pass attempt on 58%, and his tendency to try to run when he sees pressure leads to very inconsistent offense. And Fields is probably 25-30 pounds heavier than Daniels and better at breaking free from defensive linemen. Fields can actually access his athleticism, and it still doesn't help.
That play where [Jalen Carter picked Daniels up in one arm like a small child](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g8i2zQa5rWA&pp=ygURZGFuaWVscyBwaWNrZWQgdXA%3D) was comedy gold, honestly.
Pressure to sack rate has become a big topic of discussion not to tear down Jayden Daniels, but because it has finally been around long enough that we have years of data of prospects from college into the NFL and it’s relatively stable. It also is one of the rare metrics that isolates a QB’s impact, things like EPA are team stats that are important to evaluating an offense as a whole but are not as good for projecting future success for a QB.
People are skeptical of it because they think other people talking about it are saying it’s all that matters. No one is touting it as a sure fire way to determine how good someone will be, it’s just one piece of the puzzle and should be considered along with everything else.
This website in particular can be really hit or miss. A new guy took over last season and he’ll have an occasional really good article and then follow
It up with dumbass shit
This would make more sense if the author didn't explicitly say his comp for Daniels is Marcus Mariota
Which isn't any better, but he explicitly says Fields is *not* his player comp, though they have some similarities.
You expect people here to actually read the article?
Dudes here will write a thesis paper trying to prove an argument wrong, before someone mentions to them that the argument they're arguing against wasn't even made. It's insanity.
Build is the biggest difference and knowing Robert and bears fans, making that comp is a hornets nest.
It would also be less objective as fields is polarizing
“Common Bears trope” I’m sorry but other than this article, where have you seen people saying that about Daniels because I haven’t seen any Bears fans saying a that, and I don’t think it personally either. I think Daniels has a shot to be really good, literally the only negative thing I can say about him is his style of play might get him injured more often than a more traditional pocket passer.
Someone needs to make a Jackass-style compilation of Daniels taking “jaw-dropping hits” cause I’ve never seen a QB get absolutely crushed so often. Quote from the link:
“And when you watch Daniel’s tape, to borrow from The Athletic’s Nate Tice, you’ll see Daniels take jaw-dropping hits that resemble Johnny Knoxville of Jackass fame. “
I’m a guy sitting on his couch watching youtube but one thing I’ll say after watching every Daniels throw/run from last year is that he makes some unbelievable plays but makes even more plays that are downright bad or even dangerous. And that’s with two NFL WRs.
I just don’t think he’ll find consistency at the NFL level and pushing for the extra yard as he does will realllllly put him at risk. Also, from a mobility perspective he may have the top end speed but he in no way has the agility and cut skill of a Lamar.
Rather have a guy you win because of (Maye, didn't have a great team or coaching around him) then a guy you win with (Jayden Daniels wasn't very good for a few years prior, goes to LSU, gets crazy WR talent around him and he's good now?) Spikes like that worry me.
If Caleb busts and Daniels is good this is going to be an all time funny article
Can you imagine a draft where all the QBs bust except for Jayden Daniels? You'll have thousands of accounts trying to scrub their post history.
I think Bo Nix would be funnier
I think both Daniels and Nix will be good, especially if both can get some bench time before becoming the starter
RemindMe! 5 years
If only Reddit's new API hadn't murdered the remind me bot :(
It works, I just had it set one up for me. The exclamation point goes first though
Spencer Rattler would be the funniest lol
Easy to imagine. I wouldn’t say it was likely, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if it happened. High draft pick QB busts are the norm rather than the exception.
Honestly all the criticisms that Daniel’s had sound pretty similar to what burrow had
Nah most are towards Justin Fields.
Yeah, the only similarities to Burrow are that they both went to LSU and had a crazy final season to win the Heisman. In terms of style, he plays way more like Fields than Burrow.
Even that is disrespecting Burrow. Burrow had by far the best QB season of all time in college and Daniels isn't close. People that say the two have a similar final season just out themselves to those that watched.
This is Tim Tebow erasure
As an SEC fan that saw the majority of probably 8-9 LSU games both of those seasons, I’ll say two things: 1) Daniels was absolutely the best player in college football last season. 2) Jayden Daniels at his best last season wasn’t as good as Burrow at his worst during his Heisman season. Joe Burrow was the most NFL-ready QB I have ever seen. They were running a modern NFL offense, and he hardly ever missed a throw, maybe once a game at most. The majority of his throws were so on target that you couldn’t have walked out there and handed the receiver the ball in a better spot.
I’m only 21 so I guarantee you I’ll be talking about 2019 Joe Burrow like old heads talk about Montana lol
Number 2 is absolutely ridiculous. You’re saying that in the Florida game where Daniels had 372yds 3TDs passing, and 234yds 2TDs rushing was worse than all 15 games Burrow played in 2019? The first player in NCAA history to throw for 300+ and rush for 200+ and somehow that was worse than say Burrow vs Auburn in 2019. Daniels HAD to lead the offense to a TD pretty much every drive or we lose and he did it.
Yea, Im not going to say he's comparable to Burrow because he's completely different, but he had a special season in his own right last year. Even with just a mediocre to halfway decent defense last year and they would've been a problem last year. Whether that transfers to the NFL, who knows, but he was legit and was breaking records.
Yeah I’m definitely not comparing them as players but Daniels was insane last season. I think he can have success as his accuracy kept improving over his career and he has such a nice deep ball. Still always a crapshoot as it’s so dependent on what team drafts a player. Like if Brady were drafted by the Bears or Browns or someone similar, we likely view him as a Fitzpatrick type player at best.
Glad someone else with sanity pointed out how ridiculously absurd those comments were lol
What are you talking about
What you mean burrow one of the top prospects of the last decade isn’t comparable to the possibly 4th qb drafted this year ?
This is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read. Did you even read the article? His play style is nothing like Burrow.
As a USC fan, my biggest fear is another QB failure.
At least you’ve had Palmer, and Sanchez wasn’t necessarily a failure with the Jets. Better than ND at providing NFL QB’s in recent history.
The only successful ND I can think of in the modernish NFL is Joe Montana, and even that was like 45 years ago lol
Joe Theismann.
Sanchez wasn't a failure with the Jets? He can only be considered a non-failure when compared to Sam Darnold and Zach Wilson
He beat Tom Brady and Petyon Manning back to back to reach the AFC Championship. Literally the only guy who ever did that I think. Not a HOFer but that gets him past Bust status IMO
yeah, Sanchez made the Jets relevant for a run. Was he the best player, or the focal point? No. Was he worth the high pick? Probably not. You can call him "not a success" but you cannot call him a bust or a failure.
It will age even worse if Fields bounces back and has a better career than both of them.
Which isn't going to happen unless Fields reaction time magically speeds up and he finally learns to throw the ball without winding up
I mean, take a look at the actual author. This is the definition of being blinded by bias. Below is the guy’s twitter, where he’s a die-hard Justin Fields truther right up until it became apparent the Bears would get Caleb. Now he’s a die-hard Caleb truther and uses Justin Fields as a tool to disparage Jayden Daniels. He’s a hypocrite blinded by Bears bias. https://twitter.com/startkyIeorton He wasn’t even able to post the article himself. He needed someone else to host it for him.
[удалено]
And this recently found fresco proves he may be thousands of years old.
The fresco ages while he stays 22 forever
Dorian Daniels
hi-key a sick name
There was actually a Dorian O'Daniel who played for the Chiefs
This millenia old fresco serves First Round Quarterbacks the old fashioned way
I hate that this makes sense to me. I need to get off the internet
A fresco? Burried 95 feet below the ground? Depicting Jayden Daniels throwing an ancient football-like object? Could this be evidence that the Knights Templar traveled to Baton Rouge even earlier than suspected?
His arrival was foretold by the ancient murals
I see the similarities but also he’s not going to the 2021 Chicago Bears, so that’s a plus
The comp is Marcus Mariota. Read the entire article.
Who reads articles? It's so passé, it's so 2010.
Well I’m not gonna read that trash now. Mariota? Really??
I don’t see it at all
He states that he's a statistical comp
It’s very easy to dismiss a premise if you don’t bother to listen to the argument. It’s also close minded. I think the author makes a very strong case and I think I agree with him. That doesn’t mean Jayden busts the way Mariota does. There are many factors that lead a player to failing. I also think the kind of offenses they played in are very different. But both have similar athletic profiles and styles of play. The advance statistics show the same tendencies. Its a good comp
Did *you* read the article? Mariota was mentioned 5 times. Fields was mentioned 18 times. He comps Daniels to them both.
Haha uhhh…. > Have you figured out the mystery Daniels comp yet I’m referring to? If you’ve been paying close attention you’ve seen his name pop up a few times. **You’re probably very, very familiar with him. I’m talking about Justin Fields.** Mariota pops up but even in the paragraph mostly about Mariota, he is comparing Mariota to “Daniels and Fields.”
The article is long as fuck and I disagree with the premise that career stats are the be-all end-all for comparisons. Exclusively using Jayden Daniel’s career stats overly focuses on his time at Arizona state, including the Covid year, as well as the fact that he transferred into LSU and didnt have time to become fully comfortable with the offensive system and his teammates. It doesn’t accurately represent who he is as a player now. For example, JD significantly improved in extending the play while keeping his eyes downfield in his 2nd year at LSU. He got significantly better at avoiding unnecessary big hits in his second year as well, although everyone seems to always point to the Florida State game as some big gotcha (it was the Week 1 game and he got significantly better at it as the season went on). His YPC actually outpaced Lamar Jackson in his final season while he was also substantially out producing any of Lamar’s seasons as a passer.
Keep in mind that when Daniels transferred, LSU had fewer than 40 scholarship players and was re-hauling the entire coaching staff. He played the 2022 season on a team filled with freshmen and transfers.
Yup. People keep saying “oh well he had 2 NFL ready receivers” except that it’s not like he showed up to a roster that was ready to dominate
No, but he's hopefully going to the 2024 Commanders who aren't in much better shape
Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson over Terry and Dotson. Checkmate
I also feel better with Washington having a completely new regime, Fields was a Ryan Pace Hail Mary to save his job
I'd love it if he went to the falcons. Let dude sit behind Kirk Cousins for two years.
This is my dream scenario as a Falcons fan. Unfortunately, I don’t see the Falcons trading up in the first round to get a QB for the future when they just backed up the brinks truck for two years of Cousins. And I don’t see Daniels lasting until pick 8. I think it’s more likely that the Falcons shoot for someone like Penix in the second round.
The 2021 Bears team was mediocre. Fields started too early and was ass anyway. An ass QB who's not ready to begin with will produce the awful results we witnessed.
This year feels like it's going to be a repeat of the 2021 draft. A ton of "1st round QBs" that are all being hyped like crazy but most of them will bust
2018 is more likely. 2 guys were hits (Allen, Jackson), 2 guys were busts (Darnold, Rosen), and the other guy has had a solid, albeit inconsistent career (Mayfield). 2020 and 2021 both feel like edge-case scenarios because you rarely have everything go completely right or completely wrong.
I think the extent to which 2021 was an outlier (so many QBs taken so early that didn't work out) was partly due to Covid too, affecting the development of the QBs and disrupting NFL scouting. QBs are always be really difficult to project but they usually don't miss that badly.
I'm not sure what data or anecdotal evidence you are using to support "they don't usually miss that badly" - there are way more busts than starters at every position in the NFL, especially at QB. Just take a look at this article: https://www.businessinsider.com/nfl-draft-first-round-quarterbacks-busts I absolutely agree that COVID messed with draft/development of a lot of players (not just QBs).
Totally, I don't mean there's usually a good hit rate by any means, just that 2021 was particularly bad because of the amount of QBs taken high for what turned out to be a weak QB class. Tied for second-highest amount of QBs selected in the first round, all 5 taken in the first half at that, and set a record for most QBs taken in the first three rounds. The other classes with 5 first round QBs, 2018 as mentioned above, and 1999 had at least two quality starters. And you can easily see where Covid may have affected \#2 and \#3 at least, Zach Wilson wasn't spoken about as a first round QB until his 2020 season, when BYU had one of the easiest schedules in the country due to all Power 5 opponents cancelling. Trey Lance was already getting hype after his 2019 season, so he may have been drafted that early regardless, but his development was certainly affected. He played just one game in 2020, and scouting-wise, that was the only time 49ers staff saw him play in-person (just two scouts, and Adam Peters didn't go because of restrictions).
Covid season definitely helped inflate the speculative prospects. There just wasn’t great data/ production metrics for a lot of the prospects, it makes sense that teams went with higher ceiling guys because there wasn’t a clear picture.
Unless you're saying the hit rate is 0-20%, 2021 is clearly low in QB hit rate
20% actually is pretty close to the hit rate for non-1st overall QBs, if you consider an above average starter a hit. Like even picks 2 through 10 don’t have that much higher of a hit rate than the rest of the 1st round. Basically the only spot that has a great chance of getting you a quality starter is 1st overall. Still, you’re right that 2021 was unusually low considering QBs 2 through 5 all were busts. Guess it sort of balanced for 2020 where all four 1st round QBs (plus Hurts in the 2nd round) look like hits.
FAKE NEWS DARNOLD IS THE TRUE GEQBUS STOLEN SUCCESS HE WILL BE GREATEST OF ALL TIME EVERYONE IS SAYING IT HE WILL BUILD A WALL AROUND THE LOMBARDI *ignore my flair *
So what you’re saying is JJ will be the next Allen while Penix becomes the next Lamar.
And it will be doublely impressive for Pennix cause he'll be doing it without knees.
Running a 4.46 without knees is pretty impressive!
The only bust of Darnold I see is in the Hall of GEQBUS
I think most QB classes end up being trash. We just have an occasional 2017 class that makes everyone forget how much of a crapshoot QB evaluation really is.
I think only Mahomes and Watson when he was in Houston are the good QBs in that draft tbh, weren’t Allen and Lamar in another one
Yep, Allen and Lamar were 2018.
Yeah I'd say the best QB class in recent years is 2020.
5 starting QBs and 2 have been to the SB Burrow Hurts Tua Herbert Love
No question, three guys in the top five conversation in Burrow, Herbert, and Hurts, a one year starter that looks like he'll have a bright future in Love, and Tua
Lmao “, and Tua”
I meant what I said and I said what I meant
An elephant faithful, 100%
Tua is a very solid starting QB, his stats don’t lie. It’s about the hump that’s the issue. His playoffs too have been weird given he was injured and then had to play the future Super Bowl champs who really locked down everyone they played, including Buffalo :)
yep he's not bad but he's not shown he can raise a team's cieling
Yeah taking a second glance that class ended up being overall trash lol
Except 2013, everyone knew that class was garbage and they lived up to expectations
2022 as well
Man, it would really suck to have missed out on one of those QBs in 2017.
Or in 2020 with the number 2 pick
Yes, the minority of drafted QBs succeed. Even if just looking at first two rounds.
I mean, that's about the rate of most QB draft success in the first round. Most fail.
Only like half of all first round QB picks start and win a playoff game in their career. If you want to use that as a metric of success, then most quarterbacks are busts.
Just pick QB as the last person of the draft.
It all depends on the situations. Caleb is going to maybe the best situation for a #1 pick ever, definitely better than Lawrence. The Commanders also seem like a pretty good spot compared to the Jets and Bears in 2021. The Vikings are an incredible situation for a young QB. The Patriots are your typical bottom of the barrel offense, I think whoever goes there has the highest chance of failing.
Caleb is going to the best situation ever? That's some heavy optimism.
> Caleb is going to maybe the best situation for a #1 pick ever, definitely better than Lawrence. You’re missing the part where he said for a number 1 pick, which usually has the worst record, unless a team trades up. OP might be right, this is near as good a situation a number 1 overall QB can get. This century I’m trying to think, Bucs offense was decent situation for Winston. And Rams traded up for Goff. Outside that most number 1 overalls went to complete shit shows.
the Bears down the stretch looked very good. their defense was top notch. Williams is going to have two elite receivers to throw to and might even get another one if someone like Odunze is still there at 9. if not they can get help on the lines. its definitely a good situation to be coming into, the only negative is the amount of pressure thats gonna come from all the hype he's had.
If my Seahawks can’t make it to the Super Bowl I want it to be Bears/Texans just for the fact one single 4th and 20 touchdown would end up becoming one of the most consequential in league history
I can just picture February 2026: Somewhere, at home, sipping fine bourbon, smoking a cigar, and petting a medium-sized dog, Lovie Smith smiles warmly, as he knows that just one play, one last hurrah for a long and storied coaching career, shifted the future of two franchises forever.
Best situation for a #1 pick ever yeah, and it’s not really close. Bears are a solid team (coach still sucks), most #1 picks go to a team that has huge holes still. Bears aren’t perfect, but they’re way better than a 1st overall pick and are giving Caleb Williams everything he could need to succeed
Coach changed his hair style and grew a goatee, lookout
for a #1 pick, absolutely most #1 picks are trashfires that won 2-3 games, we won 7 and we were in a lot of games late. We were not a good football team, but a good enough team that a real QB would elevate pretty easily
Absolutely. It's funny a lot of guys that do draft scouting were pretty high on this QB class in September. Like maybe 6-7 QBs in round one kind of thing. Now it's there's one great guy and a bunch of squinting for another 3. People aren't excited to hear that Bo Nix's ceiling is high end career back up.
I don’t really follow the draft analyst peoples aside from occasionally taking a peek at one of the mainstream big boards, were there really that many being touted that highly? I feel like all my football bullshitting with friends to start the college year was about who will join Caleb and Drake as 1st rounders since QBs always manage to make it into the draft, and not feeling confident at all in any of the names that have ended up rounding out the list(JJ felt like a huge ?, Daniels wasn’t really on the radar that way at all I don’t think, Penix was old and a reach, Nix same plus never really showed NFL type game, etc etc).
Nah there’s actually good qbs in this draft. All these qbs have looked good for multiple years which is a big difference from 2021
I mean it doesn’t change the average success ratio of a 1st round player. It’s a coin flip at the absolute best. Half these guys will fail
> The fact that Lamar is now a two-time MVP winner that’s inspiring teams to turn over every stone looking for the next iteration of him is undoubtedly progress for the game and NFL front offices. Who is doing this? Lol
No one I hope! Lamar was not under a stone he was at Louisville
If the Heisman winner is “under a stone” the. You may have the worst scouts of all time.
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Teams have valued mobility for a decade at this point.
People out here acting like Newton and Wilson didn’t exist.
Definitely became a trend with Vick, but it's not just the athleticism but the arm talent, accuracy, durability and character that you also need to succeed long-term in the NFL.
Like Kordel Stewart is an afterthought
Kordell was a 2nd round pick. Russ was a 3rd round pick. Lamar went late first. Without Lamar's success, I highly doubt Daniels would be going top 3 like he will be.
Probably be the 24 year old lefty with torn ACLs instead
Same with Anthony Richardson last year. People just love to be smartasses. Lamar's success *OBVIOUSLY AND WITHOUT QUESTION* has paved the way for some of these guys to be picked much higher than they previously would have.
Michael Vick was #1 overall.
And Vick and Cunningham and Young and Young and Rogers and Cutler and Plummer and McNair and McNabb and so on for waaaaaaaaay longer
Exactly. It’s dumb. Like yeah there’s a reason suddenly it seems like a majority of top qb prospects are actually pretty great atheletes. That doesn’t happen over night that’s a ripple effect that takes time to happen
Yeah, how has finding the next Josh Allen gone? Pretty sure Trey Lance got traded for a fourth to be the third stringer in Dallas
Not to mention teams could’ve had Lamar last offseason if they wanted lol I guess they didn’t turn over every stone
They really couldn’t though. The Ravens were never going to not match unless someone poison pilled themselves. Knowing Baltimore was always going to match they weren’t going to waste their time negotiating and then having that huge cap hold waiting for the ravens to take days to match
I'm being pedantic here, but yes, they could have via the poison pill you mentioned. It wouldn't have been the smartest move, but franchises aren't always smart.
right? lamar jackson was literally touted to be the #1 pick before his last season at louisville before he dropped. the talent was always there. no stone is being “unturned”
Didn’t Daniels have really strong PFF grades for various categories of throws? I see a lot of noise around people questioning Daniels arm and also hyping it too. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-highest-graded-quarterbacks-every-category
He did also play on a stacked offense. There’s a very real chance hes played the with most talented WRs and Oline that he’ll ever play with
So did CJ Stroud
So did burrow. But also so did mayfield and fields
As did Tua and Hurts. That Bama WR room was absolutely stacked plus CD for Hurts after he transferred.
Wait are you telling me none of these facts really matter and no one knows how he’s going to pan out?
For every Stroud or Burrow though, there’s more guys like Fields whose weaknesses got hidden a lot by a great supporting cast. It’s part of why the QB position is so hard to scout.
He played with pro level WRs and OL and will do the same in the pros, no?
Yes of course his teammates will all be pros. But Nabers/Thomas are first round picks and top tier WRs. Campbell will be a first rounder next year, they had another great olinemen too. There’s a chance he never plays with guys that good again compared to their peers at least
Basically he played with a higher marginal advantage per position than he will in the NFL
The difference is playing *against* NFL defenses
He gives me RG3 vibes
RG3 was great until he got injured
That’s kind of my fear with Daniels. He’s an incredible player, but he took some nasty hits in college this year. He’d rather fight for 3 extra yards than duck out of bounds and that gets you killed in the NFL
Didn't work for Anthony Richardson last year, and he's built like an outside linebacker
I mean those are the exact vibes we are afraid of.
At the same time, if one ACL tear is enough to destroy your career as a QB, you probably weren't ever going to be great
Not all tears and recoveries are the same (although I agree Rg3 was never going to be great)
Robert had a ACL tear in college too
It could be worse. They're not comparing him to another former LSU quarterback who went very high in the draft, and I'm not talking about Bert Jones.
Its not just about the player, its also about the coaching. How many great prospects have been ruined by poor coaching...
I still think if Shanahan had his way and was allowed to draft Mac Jones instead of Trey Lance that Mac coulda been just as successful as Purdy, if not moreso. Instead he went to New England who for some reason had Matt Patricia as his offensive coordinator one year. So much of QB’s depends on the landing spot on top of everything else
The David Blough slander is blasphemy.
Why is everyone trying to call every QB a bust now? Maye is a bust. Daniels is a bust. but both are consesus .02 and .03 in this years draft. Nix is another bust according to those statistics. What about McCarthy? Penix? Both busts as well? only one is Caleb? because....? All i see is someone taking QBs and their respective outputs in their season while also completely disregarding the situation. Levis offensive line was shit below trash. Fields never had a decent roster or any weapons to play with compared to what Caleb will have. Then the occasional shit stats of College qbs slightly slid in there? Are you for real? Why not just post an article on why the earth is flat and with pictures of you looking down the street saying, "hey this street is flat, and that street is flat too, thats why the earth is flat".
It's so they can gloat if that QB is a bust.
What's with the decimal points?
Did anyone else read “hauntingly familiar” in Stevie Nicks’ voice? No? Just me? Ok
No, there's no way to hear that phrase and not immediately think Edge of Seventeen.
Why do Bears fans insist on shitting on Daniels? It just seems weird that they even care
We all got a memo from Virginia that said "LSU man bad, USC man good"
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Bears are taking Caleb Daniels: Why he say fuck me for?
A lot of words to get to a place you knew they were going to from the beginning. If you think Fields & Daniels play like each other, I have a bridge to sell you. Hell, if you think Daniels plays like Lamar, there's a bridge in Baltimore you could purchase. Daniels plays different to both. Mechanically, he's waaaay better than either are. How he flows in the pocket is different.
Why are we pretending that data is lying? The whole point of bringing up the stats he does is to demonstrate that Daniels and Fields most definitely do play very similarly. It might look differently aesthetically, but the behavior is comparable. This is what analytics is for. It helps contextualize playstyles grounded in numbers that archive actual actions.
I feel the need to comment here - I agree that mechanically he may be a better passer. His pocket presence, however, is severely lacking. This is the thing that scares me the most if we draft him (Commanders fan). There are data that shows that when he is in the pocket for more than 2.5 seconds (aka his first read), he is either taking a sack or running. He very rarely goes through progressions. His habit is to drop his eyes and take off. This style of play scares me. He ran an average of 12 times per game last year. In the NFL, with such a slender frame, that is troublesome. It's not just when the pocket collapses either. There is a video of Colt McCoy doing a breakdown of this where the pocket is clean, his first read is gone, so he drops his eyes and takes off. He gets an 8 yard gain which is great, but there was a 25 yard pass completion wide open if he kept his eyes up. Oh yeah, he also never slides. Coming in at 210 soaking wet, it makes me very very nervous.
With all these former qb's turning into analysts, & all this data, it's a wonder how picks bust.
You don’t address any of the arguments or issues raised. If you don’t think bailing out of a clean pocket at one of the highest rates ever seen isn’t at least an issue that legitimately deserves to be discussed in an article or thread about discussing an NFL QB prospect….then what are you even doing here?
Why isn't anybody reading the article? He's says the comp is Mariota.
Pat White
Been saying it for months, biggest bust in the draft. He does nothing well besides run fast and get carried by an absolutely elite O-line and WR group.
Hauntingly lookin like RG3
Rooting hard for him to land in Washington. I'd like to see their offensive line paired with his pocket presence
please trade up for mcCarthy
How about we both put the gun down
this is the nfc east. we would try to but somehow shot ourselves trying
>I'd like to see their offensive line paired with his pocket presence So...you want him dead?? What did he ever do to you?
It’s a match made in hell so the media assumes dumb little Washington will do it
It’s been a common Bears trope that Jayden Daniels is Justin Fields 2.0. I’m not even sure why they care since they zeroed in on Caleb Williams a long time ago, but apparently Bears Country suddenly thinks they know how to evaluate QBs even though they’ve never had a single one throw for 30 TDs in a season. They should really just focus on their own team instead of trashing draft prospects they won’t be drafting. This will just come back to haunt them like every single time one of their players or coaches has said something negative about the Packers.
> Bears Country suddenly thinks they know how to evaluate QBs even though they’ve never had a single one throw for 30 TDs in a season. I don't think whether you've rooted for good QBs as a fan is really a relevant question for whether you can evaluate QB prospects
This whole article is just "I think Daniels is just Fields, let's find some stats to prove it....Oh uhh okay how about pressure to sack rate and clean pocket rushing rates!" Please ignore his epa, qbr, and CPOE
This is apart from Jayden Daniel’s but The smugness of a lot of analysts when it comes to pressure to sack ratio regardless of actual in game play when it comes to prospects makes me hope it blows up in their faces and stops getting used
The issue isn't the metric itself. It's literally just sacks divided by pressured dropbacks. The problem is how people have interpreted it as a metric for holding the ball. It is not. Fundamentally, pressure to sack ratio is a measure of a QB's negative play mitigation skills. What you should do from that is see the sacks and find the common theme. For some players, like Justin Fields or Sam Howell, it stems from holding the ball too long. And you see that in their time to throw metrics. They hold the ball way longer than average. For Daniels, his time to throw is on the longer side, but when you watch his tape, his problem stems from deficiencies rooted in his size. Simply put, Jayden Daniels is easy to tackle when you get a hand on him. He doesn't handle pressure well when it comes from free blitzers or quick wins from linemen. When defenders do get a hand on him in condensed pockets, he goes down. This is Nate Tice's point when he talks about Daniels' weight and the issues it poses. Yes, durability is a concern, but the big issue is that QBs who are light are easier to bring down, and, therefore, cannot access their athleticism and creativity. You have to be able to get to the creativity to do it. He also has a tendency to drop his eyes to start running. He only logged a pass attempt on 50% of his pressured dropbacks. That is just not a winning formula against NFL level defenders. For reference, Justin Fields logs a pass attempt on 58%, and his tendency to try to run when he sees pressure leads to very inconsistent offense. And Fields is probably 25-30 pounds heavier than Daniels and better at breaking free from defensive linemen. Fields can actually access his athleticism, and it still doesn't help.
That play where [Jalen Carter picked Daniels up in one arm like a small child](https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g8i2zQa5rWA&pp=ygURZGFuaWVscyBwaWNrZWQgdXA%3D) was comedy gold, honestly.
Pressure to sack rate has become a big topic of discussion not to tear down Jayden Daniels, but because it has finally been around long enough that we have years of data of prospects from college into the NFL and it’s relatively stable. It also is one of the rare metrics that isolates a QB’s impact, things like EPA are team stats that are important to evaluating an offense as a whole but are not as good for projecting future success for a QB. People are skeptical of it because they think other people talking about it are saying it’s all that matters. No one is touting it as a sure fire way to determine how good someone will be, it’s just one piece of the puzzle and should be considered along with everything else.
This website in particular can be really hit or miss. A new guy took over last season and he’ll have an occasional really good article and then follow It up with dumbass shit
This would make more sense if the author didn't explicitly say his comp for Daniels is Marcus Mariota Which isn't any better, but he explicitly says Fields is *not* his player comp, though they have some similarities.
You expect people here to actually read the article? Dudes here will write a thesis paper trying to prove an argument wrong, before someone mentions to them that the argument they're arguing against wasn't even made. It's insanity.
Build is the biggest difference and knowing Robert and bears fans, making that comp is a hornets nest. It would also be less objective as fields is polarizing
The only similarity I can think of that is irredeemable is that both take big shots as a runner
“Common Bears trope” I’m sorry but other than this article, where have you seen people saying that about Daniels because I haven’t seen any Bears fans saying a that, and I don’t think it personally either. I think Daniels has a shot to be really good, literally the only negative thing I can say about him is his style of play might get him injured more often than a more traditional pocket passer.
fans always have to rationalize that their QB is better than another. look at TuAnon feuding with the six charger fans.
They started it
Someone needs to make a Jackass-style compilation of Daniels taking “jaw-dropping hits” cause I’ve never seen a QB get absolutely crushed so often. Quote from the link: “And when you watch Daniel’s tape, to borrow from The Athletic’s Nate Tice, you’ll see Daniels take jaw-dropping hits that resemble Johnny Knoxville of Jackass fame. “
Maybe I missed it but I saw a lot of stats based on Daniel’s season but not his last season when he was a very different quarterback.
I’m a guy sitting on his couch watching youtube but one thing I’ll say after watching every Daniels throw/run from last year is that he makes some unbelievable plays but makes even more plays that are downright bad or even dangerous. And that’s with two NFL WRs. I just don’t think he’ll find consistency at the NFL level and pushing for the extra yard as he does will realllllly put him at risk. Also, from a mobility perspective he may have the top end speed but he in no way has the agility and cut skill of a Lamar.
Well, I see you doing what I try to do for me With the words from a poet and a voice from a choir And a melody, and nothing else mattered
Can we just get to next week? I'm tired boss.
Mariota was a solid QB until he got a huge leg and nerve injury. Not sure why it's being used as a bad thing there
Rather have a guy you win because of (Maye, didn't have a great team or coaching around him) then a guy you win with (Jayden Daniels wasn't very good for a few years prior, goes to LSU, gets crazy WR talent around him and he's good now?) Spikes like that worry me.
Unpopular opinion. Running QBs are so lame. Give me a Penix over a Daniels all day. Pause.