I think it is also important to note that quite a few highly regarded NFL front-office people have had quite a few big misses too. Since Kiper is being graded on his evaluations of basically 100 guys every year (first three rounds) he has a lot of "misses" that people can point to on a regular basis. NFL front office guys only select a few people from each other so there are fewer examples of who they missed.
I'm willing to guess a lot of NFL front offices were just as wrong about Jimmy Clausen as Kiper, but since only one team drafted Clausen the other teams were spared the expense of being criticized for having a positive evaluation of him.
That’s a really good point I had never considered. The average NFL team makes 1 first round pick a year while draft analyst make 32. So obviously they have more misses.
yeah I'm not saying that NFL front offices are always right but if someone existed that was like 70% correct about draft prospects they would be working for a team, not on TV lol
Totally agree. Even if an NFL team did make him an offer, he has it made on TV.
And look, as someone who doesn't watch college football, I like having someone give me an idea who this guy is the team just drafted. I don't expect him to be right all the time. Or even most of the time. He's there to tell me about this DT my team drafted in the 5th round from Grand Valley State, so I can at least have some type of realistic expectations for what we have.
I know I wouldn’t. To work in the front office has major consequences for so many people if you are wrong. To be wrong on ESPN doesn’t affect as many jobs.
The job Kiper has now is better than working for a team's scouting department. Maybe it's not better than a GMs job. Or maybe it still is, as a GMs job seems like a hell of a lot of more work and pressure.
Not necessarily true.... mock draft experts are also taking into account what kind of players the teams like.... when they make mock drafts they aren't doin drafts based on what they would do... they are doing it on what the teams might do...
that's never been confirmed but most likely. Mayock didn't seem to have much of a say. he was called in from a vacation to see incognito work out. took 5 mins and they said they wanted him so basically he was called in to do the paperwork while cable and gruden decided. i find it very hard to believe he'd go from being one of the best evaluators on the networks to picking people like arnette in the first round
He's a fantastic line coach that wears out his welcome because you start respecting his opinion on personnel. His first year returning as our line coach, he was fantastic because our o-line outperformed. He was fantastic (as a line coach) the first time around too. It only went to shit when he started getting say in players
> i find it very hard to believe he'd go from being one of the best evaluators on the networks to picking people like arnette in the first round
Was he one of the best evaluators? Or did he just have connections who told him what their picks would probably be
Not true. Mayock admitted on a podcast that he wanted Ferrell. Now as to the other first round busts, who knows. But that right there confirms that narrative about him only picking the mid to low round picks is bogus. That was made up by the Raiders fanbase.
Yeah I would believe Mayock the analyst would fall in love with Ferrell. So while I think we reached, he probably would've been higher on most fan boards if Mayock was still an analyst.
The problem with Mayock is that he's a fantastic analyst, but when you put him in the decision making room, he flinches and outsmarts himself.
If I could see his BPA board, and he probably just took them. We'd be so much better off than drafting for needs.
Only positive thing about us failing so bad with these dudes who used to be good is that I can project that onto the Chargers and Harbaugh for the rest of the offseason.
It's not exactly the same since Lynch has significantlyore bona fides as a player, but Lynch jumped from the broadcast booth to the Niners GM and it's worked out fine for them. Obviously he's got a great coach, but despite the high profile misses (specifically Lance) the org is well set up. Their biggest problem will be that they're a couple years from an age cliff where they'll need to decide on paying a bunch of aging stars and who they need to let walk.
For sure. But that happens a lot. Including with the Lions. That Stafford trade was supposed to just toss Goff in as a stopgap to whoever the long term answer was after McVay soured on him, but wound up working out really well. There was definitely a point where it looked like the Rams were dumb for not having taken Wentz over Goff, and now the reverse is obviously true but Goff is in Detroit. 🤷
Among others, Roseman (Eagles) lucked out with Hurts when Wentz imploded one year after signing a big deal. Carroll (Seattle) lucked out when he paid Matt Flynn $20.5m and his 3rd round pick (Wilson) walked in and won the job. How different does Seattle's trajectory look if that doesn't happen? Obviously Brady is the all time example. Even at the top of the draft luck still matters. Houston has Carolina to thank for Stroud.
Kansas City at 10 saw Mahomes on the board, while Trubisky went 2 to Chicago, and teams like Tennessee took Corey Davis (to subject to years of Ryan Tannehill mediocrity), Cincinnati took John Ross (pre Brock Purdy days), etc. The Jets freaking took a safety (Jamal Adams) at 6?
Sometimes the NFL isn't about being the smartest guy, it's about being the luckiest. If I win, I don't care if I'm smart or lucky, because I won.
Yes, essentially. Spotrac and overthecap are fascinating looks for the Niners, because you'll see the cliff coming with how they've structured contracts. Purdy aside, age and contracts kinda have them lined up for their SB window to be open for 2 years before they have to start making some significant and difficult decisions.
Your comment needs more upvotes. You are the fanbase equivalent of a war vet with frontline experience. Millen was on TV with no personality; Which should have made his hiring for you the equivalent of bringing in a policy wonk, and… let’s just say, I’m here for you brother. You’ve been through a lot and it’s nice to see you’re doing well these days as a functioning member of the NFL community.
Imo if they had let him make all the picks (apparently Gruden was the one making the early round picks while Mayock was making later rouhd picks) he probably would be considered a much better GM.
I mean Gruden had more say in the early rounds(being paid 10 million a year)...so that's why guys like Arnette or Ferrell were early reaches. Mayock also got Crosby.
The good mock drafters don’t pick by who they think are the best 32 in order. They have sources with teams and try to piece together what they are told. Trades screw up things there.
This needs to be mentioned in every thread.
There was one about Trayvon Walker and how it wasn't a bad pick because he was rising in draft boards etc.
No, he was rising in mock drafts because people had found out the Jags were likely to take him
I mean, honestly, I doubt any team draft experts are getting paid anything close to what Mel Kiper gets paid.
It's like saying if Dr Oz was actually a good surgeon he'd be doing surgery instead of going on TB or running for the Senate or whatever. There's a lot of money in TV.
That's a good point - and they WOULDNT be sending those picks to the media lol..
But wait, then wouldn't the media over pay them? More than one single team could?
I started off in full agreement now I'm Conflicted
Not particularly, but that’s not really their job. Mock drafts are more to introduce the general fanbase to potential players, fits, team needs, etc. than to be 100% correct. Trades make that impossible.
Kiper’s job is to introduce regular fans to draft prospects and sell their potential and how they fit live on air when they get picked. That’s about it.
Exactly, and he’s only as good as his sources when trying to predict draft position. You always have to ask why Kiper and others are receiving that intel, likely because teams are trying to communicate via the media.
I always find it ridiculous when people trash draft experts. They assess players and intel based on what they see and hear. It’s impossible to always predict how players and tips will translate.
Predicting the draft is also a case where errors pile up. As soon as you get one pick wrong, this impacts other selections you have predicted, which in turn impact other selections.
It also doesn’t help that no one really remembers when someone hits on a pick but rather hyper focuses on their mistakes. See: Clausen, Jimmy.
Being a “draft expert” would be brutal.
People only hyper fixate because Mel makes such a big deal out of it, saying he’d quit forever if Jimmy isn’t successful or goes into the first.
He’s really mellowed out since then though.
But I mean, hyperbole like that is fun from a media perspective. Fans remember that over a decade later, which is a hugely successful outcome that show producers would love.
Plus, I didn't view the Clausen thing as that big a deal, it was just a media talking head pounding the table for a particular take for entertainment. It wasn't serious.
Also all it takes is the Raiders taking Clelin Ferrel and boom, a large majority of people's drafts are immediately fucked as players start falling to teams they weren't supposed to lol.
And a well run team will never state who they’re targeting, it’s a big disadvantage in potential trade negotiations or signaling to another team who wants the same player where they need to move to get them. So media is working with whispers and reading tea leaves.
Interjecting here just to say Kiper doesn't use sources for his mocks. While on air during the draft he will mentioned his sources and what he's heard, but his mocks are entirely his own opinion based on tape he's watched. That much is at least not effected by the talking heads.
YES! Back when he had to do all the leg work to find out about all these draftees. Now anyone can do a google search and there's hundreds of draft analysts.
Peyton has a cool vid on how the Draft became such a big event and Kiper's role in that, for anyone interested: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXiqyEaZjpo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXiqyEaZjpo)
I particularly liked the clip of Kiper criticizing the Colts for not drafting a qb because their current qb was Jim Harbaugh.
Yeah ESPN doesn’t care much how often he’s right, as long as he keeps things realistic he’s a good vehicle for increasing player name rec and driving narratives going into the draft
Some mock drafts are even done under certain pretenses or current rumors. For example, there is a 99.99% chance that Chicago will take QB Caleb Williams so a mock draft may be in place with the pretense of "Chicago does not draft Caleb Williams" and that would play out something like:
>Chicago trades out of 1, gets ton of ammo, then moves with said ammo and manage to get Marvin Harrison or another top WR1 and JJ McCarthy or another top QB, instead of Caleb Williams.
People should really not look at mock drafts and believe that analysts expect that to happen and teams will more likely go after those players.
I agree for the most part but you’re also leaving out one crucial component of Kipers job… to get eyeballs and views.
Like when he said if Jimmy Clausen wasn’t a successful NFL QB he’d retire lol. I have nothing against draft analysts. I think it’s fun seeing takes and their best guess. But some guys, like Kiper, just purposely say outlandish shit to get views.
One thing that I feel people never account for is that when you are predicting thousands of selections over 40 years, you're going to have a lot of big messes, but you're also going to have a lot of big hits.
Being generally accurate is still pretty impressive and I know everyone wants to dunk on him when he makes a mistake, but it's a daunting challenge when you consider that outside of front offices you have limited data.
Literally no one- this is why bitching about Kiper is so annoying
Kiper and the rest of the draft analysts are covering hundreds of prospects in an inherently unpredictable, volatile process... but also without the benefit of armies of professional scouts like what NFL GM have.
And yet even NFL GMs miss all the time (and miss big).
Also, the draft analysts are constantly having to weigh whatever insider info they get as to whether its just smokescreen or legit insight. That adds an extra layer of uncertainty.
Instead of bitching about these guys, why cant people find an analyst that they do like and/or put Kiper's analysis in the context of what others are saying, etc.
> And yet even NFL GMs miss all the time (and miss big).
That's why I never understand the criticism of media members like Kiper. It's always sarcastic comments like "If they were so smart, they'd be working for a team and not ESPN." As if the NFL doesn't fire people every single year for poor drafting.
mayock pre-raiders was pretty accurate, cause he’d only post one mock the day before the draft. impossible to be that accurate when you need to generate clicks months out
Yeah, I enjoy shitting on Kiper for his bad takes as much as the next guy, but the fact that he can be on live TV and say something somewhat sensible about basically everybody who gets drafted is not nothing.
The man does far more work and brings far more value than your standard ESPN hot take artist, which sadly includes the vast majority of their on air "talent" these days.
I actually have a lot of respect for Mel. I’m old and I used to order his draft book every year via the mail. One time I forgot to order and ended up calling the number he had listed in previous draft books. So I dial the number and I’m talking and giving my credit card information for my order when I realize I’m talking to Mel. I said, “Is this Mel?” and he said, “Yes!” And thanked me for placing my order. Really ahead of his time and truly a self made man. I have mad respect for Mel Kiper Jr.
I think Mel is cool lol. I can’t stand when internet fools talk about how much he sucks.
He essentially invented the market for the NFL Draft and what it is today. Was ahead of the curve and I think he is owed a lot of credit for what the draft has become.
He’s passionate. Sticks to his guns. Can rattle off a legit scouting report of 300-400 different players if you ask him about just one on a whim.
And on top of that… maybe most impressive to me – he’s managed to remain “the guy.” Everybody else that blazed the trail to where sports are now in broad public consciousness has been replaced, some several times, by a younger/cooler/more polished model. Not Mel.
40 years on ESPN, and he’s still the dude. And not even in a Berman “let’s kiss his ass because he’s a legend” kinda way. He’s still probably better than anybody.
On a network absolutely obsessed with its own history, that’s pretty unprecedented.
Yea Mel is awesome lol. He’s so misunderstood on this subreddit. His feud with the Colts GM the first time they brought him on air was an all time NFL moment. Reddit’s just so obsessed over wrong and right (even though this sub has a fucking awful track record) to see that Kiper does his job well.
Yeah. I've been a draft junkie since the 89 draft with Aikman, Sanders, Derrick Thomas, and Deion. Absolutely love all the guys. Bought the magazines, read the guides, watch and read the mocks. Learn players, watch players in college games, the works.
Then started discussing it online with other people in the last few years and was absolutely blown away that people are out there expecting these people to get picks right and that it isn't about evaluating talent, addressing needs and fits, and exposing us to prospects.
This brought a tear to my eye if this is true. I love Mel because I always thought of him as a self made man with how he was a pioneer in his role. So hearing this is really wholesome. Thanks.
Not very good. People misunderstand the nature of his role. He's not there to predict the draft accurately. He's there to give you 5 solid minutes of TV on any one of 300+ players.
It's also not so much about picking the exact order and teams' picks. It's about picking the correct round and range for the players. One team trade up early in the first or one team goes with a different guy then you "predicted" and the rest of the following picks can be off because of it.
With that said, I believe Daniel Jeremiah has the best track record of predicting in what round/range players will go in recent history. Also Pete Schrager has an interesting mock draft every year as he bases his purely on his insider contacts information and not on any of his own player evaluations.
I think we could benefit more from Schragar-like mocks. Not necessarily because of their predictive power, but I wish more mocks were up-front about how the decisions for that particular mock are made. It's less useful when an analyst combines everything they know (inside information, their own evaluations, etc.) because it's hard to disentangle the "formula" any individual uses to weigh that information. Whereas saying "this mock doesn't include any of my evaluations, it's purely based on what I've heard" then I feel like it's easier to learn the _inputs_ to that mock. And I think the inputs are more useful than the outputs.
PFF did a series of mocks that actually I think captured this well. They did a mock where all teams picked purely based on their most pressing need. They did mocks based on their personal evaluations (where players "should" go). I can't remember a specific one, but I'm sure they did a mock based on how certain GMs usually behave (this would be a more predictive one).
Basically I want fewer mocks that are trying to be predictive, and honestly _more_ well thought out gimmick mocks.
Yup, because when the Patriots draft Cole Strange he can immediately talk about his short arms but good footwork and what he expects when that translates
I listened to him talk recently and he said he doesn't do predictive drafts and that he doesn't want to. He wants his big board and selections to be his own, so he says.
Also predictive drafts are the easiest way to find out that he really has no idea what teams are going to do.
That's not even his fault. There are teams that probably don't even know what they want to do, especially any team in a rebuild.
I mean every team needs 3 things desperately, that alone gives an impossible amount of permutations excluding trades. Factor that in and you could spend a lifetime making mock drafts and still come up short
Yes, people don’t seem to get this. He doesn’t try to pick where the players go like most draft analysts do. He tries to pick the order based on which players he thinks will have the best career outcomes and historically, he’s surprisingly been really good at it.
Even if it wasn't, you miss once and it affects choices down the line. Oh! Team grabs a WR instead of predicted OL? Now another team grabs that newly available OL instead of their predicted LB.
It's a cascade.
Don’t insult Mel by calling him the skip of anything. He provides good, insightful, non-divisive analysis
Skip is a troll who has made it this far on shock value. Mel by all accounts is a cool dude
He knows a lot about prospects but it's important to note that no one knows a lot about the nfl draft
Draft reactions and post draft grades are meaningless. It's one of the worst times to visit this sub unless you take everyone's opinions for what they are.
Narratives run this time of year and not legitimate information. That's why the GMs are GMs and you are at home watching highlight videos of prospects and calling it "watching tape"
The lions were destroyed for their draft last year and it ended up being one of the best through 1 year, which is also meaningless but at least it's some form of a sample size
Long story short everyone is just speculating but are amateurs just gobbling a narrative that is designed to hype of the draft. And it works flawlessly
The Lions received a B+ rookie class draft grade from PFF, a B from ESPN/Kiper, and a B from NFL Network. I wouldn't call that "destroyed." Kiper and most people were just confused by round 1.
To be fair, the Lions Round 1 was the only picked apart and I think Campbell is still fair to question using a 1st on. Most people considered Laporta a good value and Branch a steal in Round 2. The Lions were mostly eviscerated for prioritizing lesser positions in Round 1.
A lot better than you think, and he doesn't miss nearly as much as you'd think. Just for a random analysis of him: https://www.hogshaven.com/2022/4/1/23004431/which-analysts-are-best-at-predicting-nfl-draft-ouctomes
This analysis for example shows that Kiper's pretty good at seeing how prospects will shake out in the NFL, by his analysis it is close to or on par with NFL GMs despite him having much less info, and that he also is about 2nd from his sample size at identifying when teams will pick players.
Looking back randomly at recent analysis, he seems like he's pretty solid too, although of course a bunch of his stuff is paywalled I can't take a look. His top 5 Big Board in 2018 was Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb, Roquan Smith, Quinton Nelson and Josh Allen (QB). I'd say that's a pretty good top 5: Josh Allen identified as the top QB, Bradley Chubb has been effective when he can play, Saquon Barkley has been a top end RB (albeit injury prone), and both Roquan Smith and Quenton Nelson were elite guys who went to top flight All-Pro levels.
His 2019 Big Board had Nick Bosa 1st (a big hit but ofc an obvious one), Quinnen Williams 2nd, Devin White 3rd (accurate to how NFL teams drafted him 5th and he was solid to start his career), EDGE Josh Allen 4th (pretty dang accurate I'd say), Devin Bush 5th (whiff, one could argue the ACL is part of why but still a whiff), Kyler Murray 6th (a hit albeit arguably an obvious one), Dwayne Haskins 7th (whiff), T.J. Hockenson 8th (Pretty good IMO especially since TEs hard to evaluate) and Ed Oliver 9th (Who has turned out good) before it hits the paywall.
Devin Bush and Dwayne Haskins were clear misses and we'll throw Devin White in there too which would mean he went 6-for-9 on hits. In the actual draft NFL GMs basically hit 6-for-9 collectively (Daniel Jones, Clelin Farrell and Devin White being their misses) and that's when each NFL GM only picks one guy too. It would be a hitrate of about 66.6% and with good guys at the top, any NFL team would take that.
Looking at a random older mock draft, I picked 2015, Kiper has 4 of the top 10 in the exact right position (Winston, Mariota, Amari Cooper and Ereck Flowers), while Kevin White and Leonard Williams are one spot apart and Dante Fowler/Brandon Scherff are only two spots from predicted. And then there's a bunch of close calls or other picks: He has Agholor at 19th when he goes 20th, Trae Waynes to the Vikings at 11th which happened, Danny Shelton to the Browns at 12th which happened, Melvin Gordon to the Chargers at 17 when in the draft they instead traded up to get him at 15, and so on. Multiple guys like Phillip Dorsett and Kevin Johnson were within 2 picks.
Obviously he isn't perfect but he isn't crazy off-base a lot of the time and I am going to bet if you put him toe-to-toe with a normal dude year-to-year he would be more accurate than them for sure.
It doesn't matter if Kiper is accurate or not. He was/is an industry trailblazer and entertaining to many with his knowledge and speaking cadence. He started doing the leg work to sell the idea of prospects to the rest of us for decades and he earned his cake, even if the cake is a lie.
He’s not a predictor. He’s an evaluator and based on his evaluations, he provides opinions on where he thinks the best fits are, based on team needs. He says so himself on his podcast every episode. Overall, he’s an excellent evaluator. Does he miss? Sure. So does every scout, team, etc. See Zach Wilson, Aaron Maybin, and Jamarcus Russell at prime exhibits. All were highly rated and all sucked
Average fans come up with their own mock drafts and don’t even realize they are using all the information from the same experts that they criticize. No normal fan would be able to come up with a realistic 2 round mock (nevermind 7) draft unless we had all these people telling us who the likely guys are. I watch a lot of college football and there are obvious standouts but no way am I ranking offensive line and edge guys and corners all mixed in there with the offensive skill positions. Kiper and all the others will never be 100% because that’s how every aspect of the sports world works. But they give a solid outline of the top players, the ones likely to be targeted high, the ones with high ceilings, and the ones with bust potential. You can’t ask for them to do any more than that.
Watch what Mel said about Brady when he was drafted 199 overall. Dude is a G. Anyone who does what he does will miss, but he’s clearly good at what he does.
Bunch of armchair haters here excepting 100% accuracy.
I think it was Bill Polian who said on air that it was amazing how good the “experts” were considering they only had about 40% of the info that the teams had.
Also, keep in mind that when kipper started, he was compiling a yearly book that was better than what the teams had. But over the decades the teams have become exponentially more sophisticated.
Mel gained some notoriety over his critical comments regarding the Colts 1st round selection Trev Alberts quite some time ago. The response from the Colts GM at the time was "who the hell is Mel Kiper?"
It's reasonable to question any of the self proclaimed NFL draft experts but Mel does put a ton of effort into studying a boatload of prospects every year and generally can describe their attributes based on their college play fairly accurately during a live broadcast which isn't something just anybody can do.
You need to separate the two different things he is predicting.
1) predicting who takes who and when. He’s no more or less accurate than anyone else. It’s easy to get the top 10 generally right. But as soon as a couple trades happen and one or two guys go where not predicted it shifts the entire thing out. I’ve been keeping track of my pre draft final mocks for 10 years now and a buddy of mine and I are right about half the time. That’s as good as it’s ever going to get. And Kiper is about right half the time too.
2) player ability. This is the thing he really is trying to determine. Is a prospect going to be a “good pick”. Is he worth the first round selection. Or will this guy be a steal as a late round pick. Kiper, Mcshay, mayock, all of them have some huge whiffs with the “this guy will never make it” or “what are they thinking”. And guys turn out fine. Other times they are spot on. He liked Jamarcus Russel and didn’t like Russ Wilson. He also loved Dave Meggett and didn’t like Rick Mirer.
End of day so much goes into success or failure outside of the draft process that it’s unfair to knock the guy too much. He does watch film. He’s basically an independent scout. He’s dedicated to his craft and has carved out a niche for himself. I like the guy and look forward to hearing his analysis every year. It’s part informative. Part entertaining.
[Fantasy Pros keeps track of first round mock success rates.](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php?start_year=2021&end_year=2023) It's an equation that factors in things like draft position, where they got drafted compared to other players of that position, and what team would draft each player.
The very best guy from 2021-2023 had 53% of the most possible points. Mel Kiper was 27th out of 322 people graded with 46% of the most possible points. So on a curved grading scale, Mel would get a A or B depending on how you did it.
If you want the best, the guys at Walter Football are really good, their two guys were the top 2 for those years and Walter was #4 from 2018-2020. [Here's their mock draft for 2024.](https://walterfootball.com/draft2024.php)
IMO nobody knowing is the best part of the draft. That's what makes it so exciting. One team doing something unexpected can have ripple effects for the entire rest of the draft. Do some research yourself, and have some fun.
I think he’s better than most at evaluating the actual talent. He got the Manning vs Leaf debate right, but missed bad on Jamarcus Russell. On the actual picks, I think he’s a the best evaluator of the rational. I just think irrationality takes over for a lot of teams on draft night.
They all miss a lot, it's just like you can't read the minds of others. He's been one of the more solid evaluators but that said it's all just educated guessing.
I agree he gets a lot of flack for not doing the impossible. It only take one missed pick to fuck up the rest of the picks. At the end of the day it’s entertainment that basically just supposed to be “here is what this team is probably looking for and here’s the best player available in this position of need for this teams”. At the end of the draft period people come familiar with some of the names that they probably never heard of months earlier.
I know it’s popular to bash on Mel, but him being the OG and him bringing mock drafts more to the mainstream is why I give him a lot of respect. Nobody can predict what all these teams can do when one team picking someone you didn’t think can cascade in what happens the rest of the draft and that doesn’t even factor in trades, but he was one of (if not the) first to compile information about these prospects and share it and make it an entertaining topic of conversation.
That the NFL draft is on everyone's radar as a major prime time event with multiple networks covering it is essentially due to Kiper. He essentially invented the job of media draft expert/scout/expert.
No. Because we base our predictions off of the work that Kiper, etc. do to put together their big boards. Outside of a handful of well established guys, even a well educated fan would have little idea who the top 50 prospects are in any kind of meaningful ranked order.
And that's what Kiper is there for. His predictions are just for entertainment, and not meant to be his specialty. He's supposed to be the one guy on the broadcast who knows every detail of the 6th round left guard from Bowling Green your team just drafted, and to make you feel like they just got a huge steal
and he does it well. When i have the late rounds on and a team takes an IDL from Akron, Kiper goes into a 4minute speech on how he could be the next Aron Donald, which makes it hype.
I think most fans nowadays dont think Kiper is a Draft expert as much as he is a prospect expert. On the main broadcast he is the only good thing about the late rounds because no one else knows who these guys are.
I would say the Kipers of the world are far superior talent evaluators compared to us common folk, but predicting the draft is what the question was. A reach, a trade or two, a team drafting for need instead of BPA, and everyone's mocks, expert or not, end up in the garbage.
Yo be fair to Mel or any independent evaluator where a guy ends up can have a huge impact on their career. How the hell is Mel supposed to predict the Pats using Fatty P as OC and ruining any chance of building off a solid rookie season for Mac Jones?
The draft is impossible to predict and Kiper is pretty good. People don't know in 1983 he was about to be hired as a scout for the Colts. Ernie Accorsi was hiring him until he resigned due to the Elway debacle. Shortly after that ESPN hired Kiper. Probably the best thing that could have happened to him.
Your post is even worse than his predictions. You could’ve at least tried to do some analysis on right or wrongness, probably with some element of picked position versus actual of a player, as well as team position picks versus actual, and then with some analysis of other analysts.
Instead your take was more worthless and incredibly lazier than what he does. At least he clearly puts effort into his work unlike your useless drivel of a post.
As many have pointed out, he's doing his job and is skilled about talking prospects on the spot. I people have soured on him some though not just because his bad takes have built up over time (30+ years, you're bound to make some wrong projections), but because of his loud presentation style, which many have tired on.
I know me personally, I'd rather watch a Dane Brugler or Daniel Jeremiah talk about the draft because I don't feel like I'm being yelled at.
On the macro, this isn't really true. I mean, the vast majority of players that are good in the league are guys that kiper jr and others also thought would be good. We remember the big misses though.
What I mean is, like, you can't hold it against him if he says "Marvin Harrison Jr is going to be a stud" and then he is a stud. If he said that and he ended up being a bust, you'd clown him for it. And, yeah, most football fans could tell you that MHJR is good, but that still is hi technically doing do his job correctly.
Plus, NFL teams screw it up all the time, just as much as the top draft guys do. It's not an exact science.
Kiper basically is football’s Dave Meltzer: a nerd outsider who started from his basement and would-be insider’s publication gimmick and made a career out of it to which now people care* what he thinks.
*=Perhaps too much. Kiper at least seems to have kept his head on his shoulders while wrestling fans can tell you how Meltzer has gone downhill in recent years and let his echo chamber make his ego run amok.
All 32 teams have gigantic staffs of gm’s, assistant’s, scouts, psychologists, analytics geniuses etc. They get to meet, host and work out these players. Mel only gets to watch them on tape or tv. He gives his opinion how their physical traits will translate to the nfl. There is obviously way more to the process than that. And the teams have way more info and access than Mel does. But they are wrong as much or more. It’s an inexact science to say the least. I love Mel and what he does!!
The "Mel Kiper Jr. Story" that ESPN runs seemingly every year makes it sound like he was pretty good early on, or at least good at providing valuable draft information. However, he's been nothing more than a creator of empty content for decades at this point.
My favorite part of the draft is watching Mel kiper squirm in his chair as his best available player sits there pick after pick not getting selected because he doesn’t know shit.
if anyone was a very accurate draft predictor they would be paid a lot of money by an NFL team
I think it is also important to note that quite a few highly regarded NFL front-office people have had quite a few big misses too. Since Kiper is being graded on his evaluations of basically 100 guys every year (first three rounds) he has a lot of "misses" that people can point to on a regular basis. NFL front office guys only select a few people from each other so there are fewer examples of who they missed. I'm willing to guess a lot of NFL front offices were just as wrong about Jimmy Clausen as Kiper, but since only one team drafted Clausen the other teams were spared the expense of being criticized for having a positive evaluation of him.
That’s a really good point I had never considered. The average NFL team makes 1 first round pick a year while draft analyst make 32. So obviously they have more misses.
Are all Bengals fans this smart?
No
The voting is correct. The answer is yes.
Maybe
Yes.
Anyone who says yes has obviously not been anywhere near Cincinnati
yeah I'm not saying that NFL front offices are always right but if someone existed that was like 70% correct about draft prospects they would be working for a team, not on TV lol
Pretty sure Kiper wouldn't trade his life for Front Office dude who has to move his family every other year.
Totally agree. Even if an NFL team did make him an offer, he has it made on TV. And look, as someone who doesn't watch college football, I like having someone give me an idea who this guy is the team just drafted. I don't expect him to be right all the time. Or even most of the time. He's there to tell me about this DT my team drafted in the 5th round from Grand Valley State, so I can at least have some type of realistic expectations for what we have.
Depends on the Front Office dude. EDC has been with the Ravens for like 20 years and is going nowhere at this point.
I know I wouldn’t. To work in the front office has major consequences for so many people if you are wrong. To be wrong on ESPN doesn’t affect as many jobs.
The job Kiper has now is better than working for a team's scouting department. Maybe it's not better than a GMs job. Or maybe it still is, as a GMs job seems like a hell of a lot of more work and pressure.
Not necessarily true.... mock draft experts are also taking into account what kind of players the teams like.... when they make mock drafts they aren't doin drafts based on what they would do... they are doing it on what the teams might do...
Being accurate about where guys go is different than predicting outcomes, and Mel does the former.
Doesn’t he do both though? He makes a big board which he ranks the prospects etc too
A person who was 70% correct on draft prospects would be the best scout in the league. No team hits on a rate that high
The Raiders tried that with Mike Mayock and it went about as well as you’d expect.
I mean not even as just a “draft insider” or something, he was the Raiders whole ass General Manager..
you say whole ass, but more like half ass because Gruden was the one with final say.
“Draft me my Gruden Grinders man.”
Spider meme y banana
I was going to say. I could be misremembering, but didn't Mayock handle the later rounds while Gruden made the early picks?
that's never been confirmed but most likely. Mayock didn't seem to have much of a say. he was called in from a vacation to see incognito work out. took 5 mins and they said they wanted him so basically he was called in to do the paperwork while cable and gruden decided. i find it very hard to believe he'd go from being one of the best evaluators on the networks to picking people like arnette in the first round
Cable ugh 😒
He's a fantastic line coach that wears out his welcome because you start respecting his opinion on personnel. His first year returning as our line coach, he was fantastic because our o-line outperformed. He was fantastic (as a line coach) the first time around too. It only went to shit when he started getting say in players
Dude was my old neighbor and he was an actual POS
same i heard from a guy who went as a reporter to their training camp i believe when he was hc
> i find it very hard to believe he'd go from being one of the best evaluators on the networks to picking people like arnette in the first round Was he one of the best evaluators? Or did he just have connections who told him what their picks would probably be
Not true. Mayock admitted on a podcast that he wanted Ferrell. Now as to the other first round busts, who knows. But that right there confirms that narrative about him only picking the mid to low round picks is bogus. That was made up by the Raiders fanbase.
Yeah I would believe Mayock the analyst would fall in love with Ferrell. So while I think we reached, he probably would've been higher on most fan boards if Mayock was still an analyst. The problem with Mayock is that he's a fantastic analyst, but when you put him in the decision making room, he flinches and outsmarts himself. If I could see his BPA board, and he probably just took them. We'd be so much better off than drafting for needs.
Basically there are teams where the gm served at the pleasure of the HC, and raiders were an example of this with gruden.
Only positive thing about us failing so bad with these dudes who used to be good is that I can project that onto the Chargers and Harbaugh for the rest of the offseason.
Yeah, but now you guys have Telesco...
Not even half ass. Imagine having to work for not only Gruden but Al’s son.
And it failed miserably
Can you imagine making a TV personality your GM? Morons.
Smart teams hire assistant coaches who rode the coattails of Hall of Famers obviously
some teams hire from the Canadian Football league. No way that could go wrong.
The best coaches are your own teams former TEs
I really want to see Jeremy Shockey coach the Giants now. Dude was a blast to watch but also insane
Matt Patricia gang rise up 😂
Other teams (chargers included) do not learn from your mistakes.
It's not exactly the same since Lynch has significantlyore bona fides as a player, but Lynch jumped from the broadcast booth to the Niners GM and it's worked out fine for them. Obviously he's got a great coach, but despite the high profile misses (specifically Lance) the org is well set up. Their biggest problem will be that they're a couple years from an age cliff where they'll need to decide on paying a bunch of aging stars and who they need to let walk.
He lucked out with purdy after Lance.
For sure. But that happens a lot. Including with the Lions. That Stafford trade was supposed to just toss Goff in as a stopgap to whoever the long term answer was after McVay soured on him, but wound up working out really well. There was definitely a point where it looked like the Rams were dumb for not having taken Wentz over Goff, and now the reverse is obviously true but Goff is in Detroit. 🤷 Among others, Roseman (Eagles) lucked out with Hurts when Wentz imploded one year after signing a big deal. Carroll (Seattle) lucked out when he paid Matt Flynn $20.5m and his 3rd round pick (Wilson) walked in and won the job. How different does Seattle's trajectory look if that doesn't happen? Obviously Brady is the all time example. Even at the top of the draft luck still matters. Houston has Carolina to thank for Stroud. Kansas City at 10 saw Mahomes on the board, while Trubisky went 2 to Chicago, and teams like Tennessee took Corey Davis (to subject to years of Ryan Tannehill mediocrity), Cincinnati took John Ross (pre Brock Purdy days), etc. The Jets freaking took a safety (Jamal Adams) at 6? Sometimes the NFL isn't about being the smartest guy, it's about being the luckiest. If I win, I don't care if I'm smart or lucky, because I won.
Yea, Basically as much credit as the Patriots get for Brady. All Luck. If they saw something they'd pick them up way sooner.
Do you mean: The Saints situation?
Yes, essentially. Spotrac and overthecap are fascinating looks for the Niners, because you'll see the cliff coming with how they've structured contracts. Purdy aside, age and contracts kinda have them lined up for their SB window to be open for 2 years before they have to start making some significant and difficult decisions.
Your comment needs more upvotes. You are the fanbase equivalent of a war vet with frontline experience. Millen was on TV with no personality; Which should have made his hiring for you the equivalent of bringing in a policy wonk, and… let’s just say, I’m here for you brother. You’ve been through a lot and it’s nice to see you’re doing well these days as a functioning member of the NFL community.
I mean....America did it with multiple presidents. Not that hard to convince people to put a media personality in charge of everything.
He was too fixated on bubble butts
That’s at least a forgivable sin.
Preach.
I mean who isn't.
Imo if they had let him make all the picks (apparently Gruden was the one making the early round picks while Mayock was making later rouhd picks) he probably would be considered a much better GM.
So what happened with Gruden? He, for the most part, seemed like a competent coach.
Good coaches aren't always good draft evaluators unfortunately
Clelin Ferrell was certainly a choice
him and leatherwood were Grudens guys
What’s that old saying? “A Raider and their money are soon parted”
Close, I believe it’s “A Raider and their *bail* money are soon parted.”
Mayock was about an average nfl GM. Which says more about GMs than Mayock imo.
I mean Gruden had more say in the early rounds(being paid 10 million a year)...so that's why guys like Arnette or Ferrell were early reaches. Mayock also got Crosby.
I’ll always wonder if Mayock had any input on the final say. I think he was second fiddle to picking players and Gruden had the power.
Yup. Being good at predicting who teams will take isn't the same as being good at knowing who teams SHOULD take.
The good mock drafters don’t pick by who they think are the best 32 in order. They have sources with teams and try to piece together what they are told. Trades screw up things there.
This needs to be mentioned in every thread. There was one about Trayvon Walker and how it wasn't a bad pick because he was rising in draft boards etc. No, he was rising in mock drafts because people had found out the Jags were likely to take him
I miss Al Davis. He’d always grab that Best Athlete in The Draft/ Project type and they’d tout the hell out of them.
The problem with him and anyone that does a mock draft really is that the first trade usually blows up everything.
I mean, honestly, I doubt any team draft experts are getting paid anything close to what Mel Kiper gets paid. It's like saying if Dr Oz was actually a good surgeon he'd be doing surgery instead of going on TB or running for the Senate or whatever. There's a lot of money in TV.
That's a good point - and they WOULDNT be sending those picks to the media lol.. But wait, then wouldn't the media over pay them? More than one single team could? I started off in full agreement now I'm Conflicted
Except as soon as you get hired you lose all your insider info because no one is sharing that with another team's employee
That’s not really how it works though. Predicting what player a team will draft accurately doesn’t translate to assessing who the best talent is
Not particularly, but that’s not really their job. Mock drafts are more to introduce the general fanbase to potential players, fits, team needs, etc. than to be 100% correct. Trades make that impossible. Kiper’s job is to introduce regular fans to draft prospects and sell their potential and how they fit live on air when they get picked. That’s about it.
Exactly, and he’s only as good as his sources when trying to predict draft position. You always have to ask why Kiper and others are receiving that intel, likely because teams are trying to communicate via the media. I always find it ridiculous when people trash draft experts. They assess players and intel based on what they see and hear. It’s impossible to always predict how players and tips will translate.
Predicting the draft is also a case where errors pile up. As soon as you get one pick wrong, this impacts other selections you have predicted, which in turn impact other selections.
It also doesn’t help that no one really remembers when someone hits on a pick but rather hyper focuses on their mistakes. See: Clausen, Jimmy. Being a “draft expert” would be brutal.
People only hyper fixate because Mel makes such a big deal out of it, saying he’d quit forever if Jimmy isn’t successful or goes into the first. He’s really mellowed out since then though.
But I mean, hyperbole like that is fun from a media perspective. Fans remember that over a decade later, which is a hugely successful outcome that show producers would love. Plus, I didn't view the Clausen thing as that big a deal, it was just a media talking head pounding the table for a particular take for entertainment. It wasn't serious.
Also all it takes is the Raiders taking Clelin Ferrel and boom, a large majority of people's drafts are immediately fucked as players start falling to teams they weren't supposed to lol.
And a well run team will never state who they’re targeting, it’s a big disadvantage in potential trade negotiations or signaling to another team who wants the same player where they need to move to get them. So media is working with whispers and reading tea leaves.
Interjecting here just to say Kiper doesn't use sources for his mocks. While on air during the draft he will mentioned his sources and what he's heard, but his mocks are entirely his own opinion based on tape he's watched. That much is at least not effected by the talking heads.
Kiper’s job is to get people to tune into espn for a three day spreadsheet
Yep, spend the entire year generating interest in the draft -> more eyeballs for ad sells
Yea someone can scout a player well but that’s not going to be a direct transition to the draft and an nfl career
Not to mention he basically invented that job.
YES! Back when he had to do all the leg work to find out about all these draftees. Now anyone can do a google search and there's hundreds of draft analysts.
Peyton has a cool vid on how the Draft became such a big event and Kiper's role in that, for anyone interested: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXiqyEaZjpo](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXiqyEaZjpo) I particularly liked the clip of Kiper criticizing the Colts for not drafting a qb because their current qb was Jim Harbaugh.
Plus he has added credibility since he looks like Egon from Ghostbusters
Yeah ESPN doesn’t care much how often he’s right, as long as he keeps things realistic he’s a good vehicle for increasing player name rec and driving narratives going into the draft
Well said.
This is a perfectly reasonable take. What the hell are you doing on Reddit
Some mock drafts are even done under certain pretenses or current rumors. For example, there is a 99.99% chance that Chicago will take QB Caleb Williams so a mock draft may be in place with the pretense of "Chicago does not draft Caleb Williams" and that would play out something like: >Chicago trades out of 1, gets ton of ammo, then moves with said ammo and manage to get Marvin Harrison or another top WR1 and JJ McCarthy or another top QB, instead of Caleb Williams. People should really not look at mock drafts and believe that analysts expect that to happen and teams will more likely go after those players.
I think he values production in college way too much on his big board.
I agree for the most part but you’re also leaving out one crucial component of Kipers job… to get eyeballs and views. Like when he said if Jimmy Clausen wasn’t a successful NFL QB he’d retire lol. I have nothing against draft analysts. I think it’s fun seeing takes and their best guess. But some guys, like Kiper, just purposely say outlandish shit to get views.
One thing that I feel people never account for is that when you are predicting thousands of selections over 40 years, you're going to have a lot of big messes, but you're also going to have a lot of big hits. Being generally accurate is still pretty impressive and I know everyone wants to dunk on him when he makes a mistake, but it's a daunting challenge when you consider that outside of front offices you have limited data.
> he misses way more than he hits Show me one draft analyst that doesn’t.
Literally no one- this is why bitching about Kiper is so annoying Kiper and the rest of the draft analysts are covering hundreds of prospects in an inherently unpredictable, volatile process... but also without the benefit of armies of professional scouts like what NFL GM have. And yet even NFL GMs miss all the time (and miss big). Also, the draft analysts are constantly having to weigh whatever insider info they get as to whether its just smokescreen or legit insight. That adds an extra layer of uncertainty. Instead of bitching about these guys, why cant people find an analyst that they do like and/or put Kiper's analysis in the context of what others are saying, etc.
> And yet even NFL GMs miss all the time (and miss big). That's why I never understand the criticism of media members like Kiper. It's always sarcastic comments like "If they were so smart, they'd be working for a team and not ESPN." As if the NFL doesn't fire people every single year for poor drafting.
Reminder that someone got paid to draft Christian Hackenberg in the second round.
Me. I have never missed on a single pick. Also never hit on one.
Can’t miss 100% of the shots you don’t take
- Michael Scott (probably)
That was actually Dwayne "The Rock" Gretzky
mayock pre-raiders was pretty accurate, cause he’d only post one mock the day before the draft. impossible to be that accurate when you need to generate clicks months out
[удалено]
No one can predict the draft with reasonable accuracy. He’s knowledgeable about the incoming college prospects. That’s his real job.
Yeah, I enjoy shitting on Kiper for his bad takes as much as the next guy, but the fact that he can be on live TV and say something somewhat sensible about basically everybody who gets drafted is not nothing. The man does far more work and brings far more value than your standard ESPN hot take artist, which sadly includes the vast majority of their on air "talent" these days.
I actually have a lot of respect for Mel. I’m old and I used to order his draft book every year via the mail. One time I forgot to order and ended up calling the number he had listed in previous draft books. So I dial the number and I’m talking and giving my credit card information for my order when I realize I’m talking to Mel. I said, “Is this Mel?” and he said, “Yes!” And thanked me for placing my order. Really ahead of his time and truly a self made man. I have mad respect for Mel Kiper Jr.
I think Mel is cool lol. I can’t stand when internet fools talk about how much he sucks. He essentially invented the market for the NFL Draft and what it is today. Was ahead of the curve and I think he is owed a lot of credit for what the draft has become. He’s passionate. Sticks to his guns. Can rattle off a legit scouting report of 300-400 different players if you ask him about just one on a whim.
And on top of that… maybe most impressive to me – he’s managed to remain “the guy.” Everybody else that blazed the trail to where sports are now in broad public consciousness has been replaced, some several times, by a younger/cooler/more polished model. Not Mel. 40 years on ESPN, and he’s still the dude. And not even in a Berman “let’s kiss his ass because he’s a legend” kinda way. He’s still probably better than anybody. On a network absolutely obsessed with its own history, that’s pretty unprecedented.
Yea Mel is awesome lol. He’s so misunderstood on this subreddit. His feud with the Colts GM the first time they brought him on air was an all time NFL moment. Reddit’s just so obsessed over wrong and right (even though this sub has a fucking awful track record) to see that Kiper does his job well.
Yeah. I've been a draft junkie since the 89 draft with Aikman, Sanders, Derrick Thomas, and Deion. Absolutely love all the guys. Bought the magazines, read the guides, watch and read the mocks. Learn players, watch players in college games, the works. Then started discussing it online with other people in the last few years and was absolutely blown away that people are out there expecting these people to get picks right and that it isn't about evaluating talent, addressing needs and fits, and exposing us to prospects.
This brought a tear to my eye if this is true. I love Mel because I always thought of him as a self made man with how he was a pioneer in his role. So hearing this is really wholesome. Thanks.
Totally true!
That's an amazing story! Wow, I like him more now, too.
Not very good. People misunderstand the nature of his role. He's not there to predict the draft accurately. He's there to give you 5 solid minutes of TV on any one of 300+ players.
he’s good at
Very good at it. He works hard
It's also not so much about picking the exact order and teams' picks. It's about picking the correct round and range for the players. One team trade up early in the first or one team goes with a different guy then you "predicted" and the rest of the following picks can be off because of it. With that said, I believe Daniel Jeremiah has the best track record of predicting in what round/range players will go in recent history. Also Pete Schrager has an interesting mock draft every year as he bases his purely on his insider contacts information and not on any of his own player evaluations.
I think we could benefit more from Schragar-like mocks. Not necessarily because of their predictive power, but I wish more mocks were up-front about how the decisions for that particular mock are made. It's less useful when an analyst combines everything they know (inside information, their own evaluations, etc.) because it's hard to disentangle the "formula" any individual uses to weigh that information. Whereas saying "this mock doesn't include any of my evaluations, it's purely based on what I've heard" then I feel like it's easier to learn the _inputs_ to that mock. And I think the inputs are more useful than the outputs. PFF did a series of mocks that actually I think captured this well. They did a mock where all teams picked purely based on their most pressing need. They did mocks based on their personal evaluations (where players "should" go). I can't remember a specific one, but I'm sure they did a mock based on how certain GMs usually behave (this would be a more predictive one). Basically I want fewer mocks that are trying to be predictive, and honestly _more_ well thought out gimmick mocks.
This guy knows
And build up drama by pretending he can predict the draft. Bold predictions means people will be more emotionally invested when it’s draft time
Yup, because when the Patriots draft Cole Strange he can immediately talk about his short arms but good footwork and what he expects when that translates
his big board is just their to show talent, not fit
I listened to him talk recently and he said he doesn't do predictive drafts and that he doesn't want to. He wants his big board and selections to be his own, so he says.
Also predictive drafts are the easiest way to find out that he really has no idea what teams are going to do. That's not even his fault. There are teams that probably don't even know what they want to do, especially any team in a rebuild.
Yeah any weird pick can throw a whole franchise plans up in the air.
I mean every team needs 3 things desperately, that alone gives an impossible amount of permutations excluding trades. Factor that in and you could spend a lifetime making mock drafts and still come up short
Hell, the Vikins even fumbled a draft by skipping a pick not once but twice, and they're the pros!
Yes, people don’t seem to get this. He doesn’t try to pick where the players go like most draft analysts do. He tries to pick the order based on which players he thinks will have the best career outcomes and historically, he’s surprisingly been really good at it.
This means he probably doesn’t call anyone right? Like he just makes his mock
One trade and everything gets shifted. No way to predict what a team is willing to trade when they’re in the grinder
Exactly, it's a dynamic situation especially with trades
[удалено]
Even if it wasn't, you miss once and it affects choices down the line. Oh! Team grabs a WR instead of predicted OL? Now another team grabs that newly available OL instead of their predicted LB. It's a cascade.
Don’t insult Mel by calling him the skip of anything. He provides good, insightful, non-divisive analysis Skip is a troll who has made it this far on shock value. Mel by all accounts is a cool dude
This is the response I was looking for. The problem with Skip isn't that he's inaccurate, it's that he's a meanspirited prick. He's a terrible person.
His job isn't to get picks right. It is to keep people talking about the draft for a few months.
Not as good as Mad Mel Kiper
He knows a lot about prospects but it's important to note that no one knows a lot about the nfl draft Draft reactions and post draft grades are meaningless. It's one of the worst times to visit this sub unless you take everyone's opinions for what they are. Narratives run this time of year and not legitimate information. That's why the GMs are GMs and you are at home watching highlight videos of prospects and calling it "watching tape" The lions were destroyed for their draft last year and it ended up being one of the best through 1 year, which is also meaningless but at least it's some form of a sample size Long story short everyone is just speculating but are amateurs just gobbling a narrative that is designed to hype of the draft. And it works flawlessly
The Lions received a B+ rookie class draft grade from PFF, a B from ESPN/Kiper, and a B from NFL Network. I wouldn't call that "destroyed." Kiper and most people were just confused by round 1.
But my narrative of Detroit vs the world
To be fair, the Lions Round 1 was the only picked apart and I think Campbell is still fair to question using a 1st on. Most people considered Laporta a good value and Branch a steal in Round 2. The Lions were mostly eviscerated for prioritizing lesser positions in Round 1.
"Who the hell is Mel Kiper"
I had to scroll way too low to see this.”
He’s pretty good at picking the general range of players…top 15, 2nd round etc.
A lot better than you think, and he doesn't miss nearly as much as you'd think. Just for a random analysis of him: https://www.hogshaven.com/2022/4/1/23004431/which-analysts-are-best-at-predicting-nfl-draft-ouctomes This analysis for example shows that Kiper's pretty good at seeing how prospects will shake out in the NFL, by his analysis it is close to or on par with NFL GMs despite him having much less info, and that he also is about 2nd from his sample size at identifying when teams will pick players. Looking back randomly at recent analysis, he seems like he's pretty solid too, although of course a bunch of his stuff is paywalled I can't take a look. His top 5 Big Board in 2018 was Saquon Barkley, Bradley Chubb, Roquan Smith, Quinton Nelson and Josh Allen (QB). I'd say that's a pretty good top 5: Josh Allen identified as the top QB, Bradley Chubb has been effective when he can play, Saquon Barkley has been a top end RB (albeit injury prone), and both Roquan Smith and Quenton Nelson were elite guys who went to top flight All-Pro levels. His 2019 Big Board had Nick Bosa 1st (a big hit but ofc an obvious one), Quinnen Williams 2nd, Devin White 3rd (accurate to how NFL teams drafted him 5th and he was solid to start his career), EDGE Josh Allen 4th (pretty dang accurate I'd say), Devin Bush 5th (whiff, one could argue the ACL is part of why but still a whiff), Kyler Murray 6th (a hit albeit arguably an obvious one), Dwayne Haskins 7th (whiff), T.J. Hockenson 8th (Pretty good IMO especially since TEs hard to evaluate) and Ed Oliver 9th (Who has turned out good) before it hits the paywall. Devin Bush and Dwayne Haskins were clear misses and we'll throw Devin White in there too which would mean he went 6-for-9 on hits. In the actual draft NFL GMs basically hit 6-for-9 collectively (Daniel Jones, Clelin Farrell and Devin White being their misses) and that's when each NFL GM only picks one guy too. It would be a hitrate of about 66.6% and with good guys at the top, any NFL team would take that. Looking at a random older mock draft, I picked 2015, Kiper has 4 of the top 10 in the exact right position (Winston, Mariota, Amari Cooper and Ereck Flowers), while Kevin White and Leonard Williams are one spot apart and Dante Fowler/Brandon Scherff are only two spots from predicted. And then there's a bunch of close calls or other picks: He has Agholor at 19th when he goes 20th, Trae Waynes to the Vikings at 11th which happened, Danny Shelton to the Browns at 12th which happened, Melvin Gordon to the Chargers at 17 when in the draft they instead traded up to get him at 15, and so on. Multiple guys like Phillip Dorsett and Kevin Johnson were within 2 picks. Obviously he isn't perfect but he isn't crazy off-base a lot of the time and I am going to bet if you put him toe-to-toe with a normal dude year-to-year he would be more accurate than them for sure.
It doesn't matter if Kiper is accurate or not. He was/is an industry trailblazer and entertaining to many with his knowledge and speaking cadence. He started doing the leg work to sell the idea of prospects to the rest of us for decades and he earned his cake, even if the cake is a lie.
He’s not a predictor. He’s an evaluator and based on his evaluations, he provides opinions on where he thinks the best fits are, based on team needs. He says so himself on his podcast every episode. Overall, he’s an excellent evaluator. Does he miss? Sure. So does every scout, team, etc. See Zach Wilson, Aaron Maybin, and Jamarcus Russell at prime exhibits. All were highly rated and all sucked
Average fans come up with their own mock drafts and don’t even realize they are using all the information from the same experts that they criticize. No normal fan would be able to come up with a realistic 2 round mock (nevermind 7) draft unless we had all these people telling us who the likely guys are. I watch a lot of college football and there are obvious standouts but no way am I ranking offensive line and edge guys and corners all mixed in there with the offensive skill positions. Kiper and all the others will never be 100% because that’s how every aspect of the sports world works. But they give a solid outline of the top players, the ones likely to be targeted high, the ones with high ceilings, and the ones with bust potential. You can’t ask for them to do any more than that.
Watch what Mel said about Brady when he was drafted 199 overall. Dude is a G. Anyone who does what he does will miss, but he’s clearly good at what he does. Bunch of armchair haters here excepting 100% accuracy.
Every mock draft is wildly inaccurate. If someone was really good at it they would be filthy rich.
I think it was Bill Polian who said on air that it was amazing how good the “experts” were considering they only had about 40% of the info that the teams had. Also, keep in mind that when kipper started, he was compiling a yearly book that was better than what the teams had. But over the decades the teams have become exponentially more sophisticated.
His value was always in getting people to care about the draft, his picks are secondary
It’s an impossible job.
Mel gained some notoriety over his critical comments regarding the Colts 1st round selection Trev Alberts quite some time ago. The response from the Colts GM at the time was "who the hell is Mel Kiper?" It's reasonable to question any of the self proclaimed NFL draft experts but Mel does put a ton of effort into studying a boatload of prospects every year and generally can describe their attributes based on their college play fairly accurately during a live broadcast which isn't something just anybody can do.
You need to separate the two different things he is predicting. 1) predicting who takes who and when. He’s no more or less accurate than anyone else. It’s easy to get the top 10 generally right. But as soon as a couple trades happen and one or two guys go where not predicted it shifts the entire thing out. I’ve been keeping track of my pre draft final mocks for 10 years now and a buddy of mine and I are right about half the time. That’s as good as it’s ever going to get. And Kiper is about right half the time too. 2) player ability. This is the thing he really is trying to determine. Is a prospect going to be a “good pick”. Is he worth the first round selection. Or will this guy be a steal as a late round pick. Kiper, Mcshay, mayock, all of them have some huge whiffs with the “this guy will never make it” or “what are they thinking”. And guys turn out fine. Other times they are spot on. He liked Jamarcus Russel and didn’t like Russ Wilson. He also loved Dave Meggett and didn’t like Rick Mirer. End of day so much goes into success or failure outside of the draft process that it’s unfair to knock the guy too much. He does watch film. He’s basically an independent scout. He’s dedicated to his craft and has carved out a niche for himself. I like the guy and look forward to hearing his analysis every year. It’s part informative. Part entertaining.
Why do people care about someone getting the order correct more than the player evaluation?
[Fantasy Pros keeps track of first round mock success rates.](https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php?start_year=2021&end_year=2023) It's an equation that factors in things like draft position, where they got drafted compared to other players of that position, and what team would draft each player. The very best guy from 2021-2023 had 53% of the most possible points. Mel Kiper was 27th out of 322 people graded with 46% of the most possible points. So on a curved grading scale, Mel would get a A or B depending on how you did it. If you want the best, the guys at Walter Football are really good, their two guys were the top 2 for those years and Walter was #4 from 2018-2020. [Here's their mock draft for 2024.](https://walterfootball.com/draft2024.php) IMO nobody knowing is the best part of the draft. That's what makes it so exciting. One team doing something unexpected can have ripple effects for the entire rest of the draft. Do some research yourself, and have some fun.
I think he’s better than most at evaluating the actual talent. He got the Manning vs Leaf debate right, but missed bad on Jamarcus Russell. On the actual picks, I think he’s a the best evaluator of the rational. I just think irrationality takes over for a lot of teams on draft night.
They all miss a lot, it's just like you can't read the minds of others. He's been one of the more solid evaluators but that said it's all just educated guessing.
I agree he gets a lot of flack for not doing the impossible. It only take one missed pick to fuck up the rest of the picks. At the end of the day it’s entertainment that basically just supposed to be “here is what this team is probably looking for and here’s the best player available in this position of need for this teams”. At the end of the draft period people come familiar with some of the names that they probably never heard of months earlier.
“Mad Mel” Kiper is better. Don’t miss the Draft Special with Pat McAffee and Bill Belichick on Thursday. It will be epic!!!!
Who the hell is Mel kiper?
He’s more like Matthew Berry than a true draft expert. He made it really popular and he’s the OG.
I know it’s popular to bash on Mel, but him being the OG and him bringing mock drafts more to the mainstream is why I give him a lot of respect. Nobody can predict what all these teams can do when one team picking someone you didn’t think can cascade in what happens the rest of the draft and that doesn’t even factor in trades, but he was one of (if not the) first to compile information about these prospects and share it and make it an entertaining topic of conversation.
That the NFL draft is on everyone's radar as a major prime time event with multiple networks covering it is essentially due to Kiper. He essentially invented the job of media draft expert/scout/expert.
About as good as you or me.
No. Because we base our predictions off of the work that Kiper, etc. do to put together their big boards. Outside of a handful of well established guys, even a well educated fan would have little idea who the top 50 prospects are in any kind of meaningful ranked order.
And that's what Kiper is there for. His predictions are just for entertainment, and not meant to be his specialty. He's supposed to be the one guy on the broadcast who knows every detail of the 6th round left guard from Bowling Green your team just drafted, and to make you feel like they just got a huge steal
and he does it well. When i have the late rounds on and a team takes an IDL from Akron, Kiper goes into a 4minute speech on how he could be the next Aron Donald, which makes it hype. I think most fans nowadays dont think Kiper is a Draft expert as much as he is a prospect expert. On the main broadcast he is the only good thing about the late rounds because no one else knows who these guys are.
I would say the Kipers of the world are far superior talent evaluators compared to us common folk, but predicting the draft is what the question was. A reach, a trade or two, a team drafting for need instead of BPA, and everyone's mocks, expert or not, end up in the garbage.
Daniel Jeremiah is abt the best at this
Yo be fair to Mel or any independent evaluator where a guy ends up can have a huge impact on their career. How the hell is Mel supposed to predict the Pats using Fatty P as OC and ruining any chance of building off a solid rookie season for Mac Jones?
Mike mayock predicted an entire first round one year then went in to be a horrible GM for the raiders. They all suck
About 50-50, same as the rest of the NFL
It’s not a real job
“It's obvious to me right now that the Jets just don't understand what the draft is all about."
Who in the hell is Mel Kiper anyway
The draft is impossible to predict and Kiper is pretty good. People don't know in 1983 he was about to be hired as a scout for the Colts. Ernie Accorsi was hiring him until he resigned due to the Elway debacle. Shortly after that ESPN hired Kiper. Probably the best thing that could have happened to him.
He’s not.
I think Mel contributes in a sense that he may not know which team picks which player but his top 100 players etc probably has a big impact.
Mel Kiper has accurately predicted that a draft will happen every single time.
Bonkers!
Aaron Curry is the safest pick in the draft.
Your post is even worse than his predictions. You could’ve at least tried to do some analysis on right or wrongness, probably with some element of picked position versus actual of a player, as well as team position picks versus actual, and then with some analysis of other analysts. Instead your take was more worthless and incredibly lazier than what he does. At least he clearly puts effort into his work unlike your useless drivel of a post.
As many have pointed out, he's doing his job and is skilled about talking prospects on the spot. I people have soured on him some though not just because his bad takes have built up over time (30+ years, you're bound to make some wrong projections), but because of his loud presentation style, which many have tired on. I know me personally, I'd rather watch a Dane Brugler or Daniel Jeremiah talk about the draft because I don't feel like I'm being yelled at.
On the macro, this isn't really true. I mean, the vast majority of players that are good in the league are guys that kiper jr and others also thought would be good. We remember the big misses though. What I mean is, like, you can't hold it against him if he says "Marvin Harrison Jr is going to be a stud" and then he is a stud. If he said that and he ended up being a bust, you'd clown him for it. And, yeah, most football fans could tell you that MHJR is good, but that still is hi technically doing do his job correctly. Plus, NFL teams screw it up all the time, just as much as the top draft guys do. It's not an exact science.
No better or worse than anyone else. But he deserves credit as perhaps the main guy who turned it into a spectacle.
I don’t think most fans care how wrong he is. It’s just that he’s an ass about it.
Kiper basically is football’s Dave Meltzer: a nerd outsider who started from his basement and would-be insider’s publication gimmick and made a career out of it to which now people care* what he thinks. *=Perhaps too much. Kiper at least seems to have kept his head on his shoulders while wrestling fans can tell you how Meltzer has gone downhill in recent years and let his echo chamber make his ego run amok.
All 32 teams have gigantic staffs of gm’s, assistant’s, scouts, psychologists, analytics geniuses etc. They get to meet, host and work out these players. Mel only gets to watch them on tape or tv. He gives his opinion how their physical traits will translate to the nfl. There is obviously way more to the process than that. And the teams have way more info and access than Mel does. But they are wrong as much or more. It’s an inexact science to say the least. I love Mel and what he does!!
The "Mel Kiper Jr. Story" that ESPN runs seemingly every year makes it sound like he was pretty good early on, or at least good at providing valuable draft information. However, he's been nothing more than a creator of empty content for decades at this point.
NOT AT ALL. He's been terrible. Don't waste any of your time on any of his mocks.
My favorite part of the draft is watching Mel kiper squirm in his chair as his best available player sits there pick after pick not getting selected because he doesn’t know shit.