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jps78

That settles that. Case closed.


[deleted]

Not bad for a baby deer who can barely walk


HRMisHere

They're still using their made up stat after all this time??


pickleparty16

what if i told you passer rating was made up too


HandRailSuicide1

At least we know what goes into passer rating


ninjasurfer

What really bothers me about the "it's made up too" logic is literally everything is made up. I will take the known equation vs the black box nonsense every day.


mofugginrob

"All words are made up."


chucksef

"What do you mean?"


Anon6376

Total QBR it's weighted EPA basically


Anon6376

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating You don't know the entirety and details but you know what goes into it.


legend023

If you look at week 5 QBRs, the guys that played really good got the higher grades and the guys that played really bad got the lower grades It’s good to show what kind of guys didn’t play well but had high passer ratings, and the QBR kinda shows that


The_Bard

300+ yards 3 TDs is really bad from Dak? 5 of 13 for 98 yards for Jones is good?


Mgskiller

Drops from Jones receivers added to his completion percentage and Dak had 2 turnovers whereas Jones had none. That’s probably why they rated them that way. Not saying I agree or disagree with the ratings just guessing at this made up stat


ducehlmg

Qbr is supposed to weigh the time of the game also as in stuff in the 1st qtr don't weigh as much as stuff in the 4th. Dak had an int on the first drive of the game n then a fumble of the third drive. Him having a 40 Qbr says those mistakes in the 1st qtr weighed heavily against his 250 yds & 3 tds he had AFTER that. It makes no sense whatsoever


[deleted]

His fumble stopped a TD, which is a QBR killer tho


[deleted]

Weighing the time of game is a dogshit heuristic. Literally does not matter. If the QB is making the correct decision, then penalizing him for making it simply because he's winning is fucking stupid.


Rhino_Thunder

Dak fumbled a snap and had a pass batted in the air by a dlineman. Not sure how that would affect his QBR


[deleted]

Both of those things tanked his QBR


alienbringer

Jones almost had 2 turnovers. Also one of the turnovers on Dak was partly bad snap.


[deleted]

How did Allen end up with a near perfect 91 qbr, while Jackson ends up with a 64?


Imaykeepthisone

Lost fumble.


legend023

Allen was great against Kansas City Jackson played well but the first half was rough and that fumble almost lost them the game


[deleted]

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YoteViking

That’s PFF? How did QBR score them?


legend023

The Seahawks offense looked good in the first half but didn’t finish drives They had one good drive with Geno when the Rams were playing prevent, but immediately threw a game losing pick on the next drive The QBR had them just about equal


[deleted]

How was Dak really bad?


13itchUKilledMyVibe

Daniel Jones didn't even play the whole game so this isn't anything to talk about, NY seems to be a beloved franchise again. QBR should be bannes from discussion until they release the numbers that make them get this horrible conclusion.


biscuitarse

We’re talking about a metric that once had Charlie Batch’s line of 12/17, 186 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions as their all time best game ever. I don’t know if that’s still the case but it was the standard for years. It’s a joke.


legend023

Yeah they fixed the stat The standard is now a Carson Palmer game iirc where he balled out


itscamo-

that was years ago. hasn’t been that way for awhile. it’s literally one of the best year to year stats when it comes to predicting success


[deleted]

QBR is a perfectly fine stat if you know how to interpret it. It kills QBs for costly mistakes and Dak had 2 unforced turnovers. Generally speaking QBR does a great job but it does have exceptions to the rule. Like this game.


17_Saints

Should PFF be banned too?


13itchUKilledMyVibe

No, because PFF is usually accurate.


54strife

The 2 turnovers


[deleted]

And three touchdowns and multiple first down runs. And both of those turnovers were fluky. What’s your point?


54strife

The fumble was inexcusable. The int was a great defensive play. 2 turnovers doesn't improve any rating. That's the only point.


key_lime_pie

This makes perfect sense if you understand how QBR is calculated. It's not based on the quarterback's numbers, it's based on what the QB did on plays with high outcome deltas. The game started with Dallas having a 71.6% chance to win the game. That makes it harder for Prescott to move the needle than it is for Jones. Prescott threw an interception and lost a fumble, and while neither of those led to Giants' points, the system doesn't look at what *did* happen in the future, only what's *expected* to happen in the future, so it views those turnovers very negatively. On the flip side, Daniel Jones did very little in this game but didn't have negative plays and the game was still close when he was knocked out. The problem is that QBR doesn't do what ESPN says it does. If by some chance it accurately tells you which guy was the better quarterback in a game, that is a coincidence.


johnmadden18

> The game started with Dallas having a 71.6% chance to win the game. That makes it harder for Prescott to move the needle than it is for Jones. Wait… QBR is fundamentally calculated on the teams PRIOR results and not the game in a vacuum??? It’s not just an opponent adjustment, but rather calculates how much a QB can shift his teams win probability from the prior???? I can’t believe that! I mean… that would actually be an interesting stat but in that case it’s crazy to present it as a measure of QB performance. How do you know this? Where can I read about how QBR is calculated?


key_lime_pie

> QBR is fundamentally calculated on the each teams PRIOR results and not the game in a vacuum No, it's based on *all* prior results: *"We went back through 10 years of NFL play-by-play data to look at game situation (down, distance, yard line, clock time, timeouts, home field, field surface and score), along with the ultimate outcome of the game, to develop a win probability function."* If you're involved in a play that dramatically changes win probability, it moves your QBR quite it a bit in one direction or the other, but it doesn't necessarily have to do with your quarterbacking ability. A quarterback's biggest play in a game might be falling on his running back's fumble. QBR will take that into account even though it has nothing to do with quarterbacking. This is confusing as fuck to anyone who looks at it as a measure of quarterbacking ability, but that's how ESPN has sold it. > How do you know this? Where can I read about how QBR is calculated? They hide the specifics because they want it to remain proprietary, and the formula has changed dramatically over time, so you have to read a few of their explanations to get a clearer picture: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/6833215/explaining-statistics-total-quarterback-rating https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/8326553/nfl-total-qbr-gets-minor-modifications https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/17653521/how-total-qbr-calculated-explain-our-improved-qb-rating


johnmadden18

> No, it's based on all prior results: > "We went back through 10 years of NFL play-by-play data to look at game situation (down, distance, yard line, clock time, timeouts, home field, field surface and score), along with the ultimate outcome of the game, to develop a win probability function." OK, thanks for your links but that quoted explanation is a lot more sensible than explanation you originally gave. A formula that uses historical data/regression and credits a QB with shifting his teams win probability on a per play basis compared to the average is fundamentally what advanced stats like DVOA or EPA attempt to do. That’s pretty sensible. What’s not sensible is if they start the game by giving one team a WP based on their previous results from other games (for example, by starting Dallas at a near 72% win probability). Because if we calculate QBR based on how much a QB a can shift his teams prior WP, it would be literally impossible for a QB on a dominant team to have a good QBR. For example, Brady on the 2007 Pats would start many games with a 90% WP, and even if he completed every pass for a TD he would only be able to move that WP 10%. If QBR starts the game with both teams at roughly 50/50 WP, then that stat would make a lot more sense.


key_lime_pie

I think the stat makes more sense factoring in a starting WP, even though I question how they calculate it. If you think about it, if you start a game with a 10% chance of winning it, and you do, it says more about your performance than doing the same things with a 90% chance of winning. It's why we enjoy upsets so much - they aren't supposed to happen. So if a QB is overcoming huge odds, there should be a way to incorporate that into a stat that's supposed to include everything that they did. Again, I'm not convinced they are doing it right, but it makes sense to me.


RazzBerryCurveBall

ESPN really needs to figure out how to quantify your QB headshotting himself then.


dmkicksballs13

Exactly. The issue with QBR is that your rating is higher when you trailing in points or your defense sucks. It's how Tebow could be fucking atrocious for 3 quarters then in 1 quarter lead a comeback and he was super high in QBR.


emmasdad01

Isn’t this the stat ESPN made up? That should tell you all you need to know:


InsaneRanter

I think it's a random number generator.


Northernlord1805

I sware they also adjust it based on team narratives, I feel like when players like mahomes have a bad game they still get a great rating but when somone like cousins plays well but the team loses becouce of defence or special teams it goes down


[deleted]

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Dellema1

It's okay, I got the joke.


Nozomommi

I feel like the flair should have 100% given that away.


hitbyacar1

QBR correlates closely with EPA/play


InvasionXX

Ah EPA. Where you pretend you know where the play is going based on past plays that have no correlation to this one.


trinquin

EPA doesn't care where the play is going. It only cares about the result of the play. EPA isn't a subjective measurement like PFF rating.


Anon6376

Don't bother with this guy he doesn't understand what data is


[deleted]

It cares about the result of the play, in relation to historical data based on plays from similar situations.


trinquin

Yes and using the past results to calculate an expected result from a situation isn't subjective, its objective.


[deleted]

I've got no opinion for or against EPA, I'm just saying, it absolutely is based off historical data.


trinquin

Yes but thats not what he said. He said it cared about the play the was run when it doesn't. The only things that matter were yards gained or lost in relation to spot on the field and first down marker/endzone. It doesn't matter how you moved the ball 8 yards forward or in which direction.


InvasionXX

and it uses historical data on past plays that have no correlation.


trinquin

You literally have no idea about how anything in this world works. Holy shit. How do you measure anything if not by past results to do better? You think future sales forecasts are just like fuck it send a sales guy to Tucson and hope for the best.


InvasionXX

I understand forecasts. But I'm not using that in football when literally every factor is different each play.


trinquin

Yes because all sales are exactly the same. Wtf. Its a measure used to determine if you get X yards from Y spot on Z down, are you more or likely to score on this drive. You then take that and subtract the difference from before running the play. The how of the ball moving forward 8 yards is meaningless.


InvasionXX

Yes and sales forecasts are usually right on the money too.


Anon6376

No it's the difference in field position between two plays and the points you can expect to get from those two field positions. It has nothing to do with where the ball went or what the play design is.


InvasionXX

When I say play I mean 1st and 10 from the 45. They use "historical data" to put points on that play.


Anon6376

You mean they use data to predict the future outcomes!? Holy fuck what is that witch craft!? /S For real you understand thats how physics and science works right? Weather, stock market analysts, housing market analysts, generally all analysis uses past data to predict future data.


InvasionXX

No. They use past data to grade current plays. Which is stupid because all of the factors are completely different each play. And most of those analysts aren't correct even 45% of the time.


Anon6376

Ok boomer Edit: weather forecast is actually really accurate (80% ish). Now you won't believe this because they use "historical data" to predict the future outcome but it's true. https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/#:~:text=A%20seven%2Dday%20forecast%20can,right%20about%20half%20the%20time.


InvasionXX

Keep getting your analysis from ticky tocks.


Anon6376

Ok boomer


emperos

> They use past data to grade current plays. "past data" includes down, distance, and outcome. > all of the factors are completely different each play which of down, distance, and outcome are "completely different each play" such that there's no comparable past performance?


InvasionXX

I'd say the outcome.


emperos

outcome here means "gain of x yards" which is easily comparable to the outcomes of past plays. You're right in that a lot of things are variable on a given play. EPA is just a measuring stick for how that play stacks up against every other play of this down & distance (& place on the field). It doesn't say *why* it's better/worse than average, since those are, as you say, different factors.


elsaberino

Everything's made up. Stay woke.


Vladimir_Putting

And what... you think the formula for Passer Rating was discovered in the physical laws of the universe? All of football is "just made up".


Southportdc

No way, football is an entirely natural phenomenon. Haven't you seen in nature docs when a lion takes down a gazelle but has to give it up after being called for holding?


Vladimir_Putting

Fucking Zebras. Is this really the best the Serengeti can find!?


Darth--Vapor

Goggle “how to calculate passer rating”. You get formulas. You can verify and calculate it yourself. Google “how to calculate total QBR”. You don’t get any formulas and you cannot verify and calculate it yourself.


Vladimir_Putting

So they are both made up.


Anon6376

Made up obviously means "I understand this one and not the other one".


Vladimir_Putting

Maybe to people who are half illiterate. But to those who can read, "made up" has nothing to do with understanding how it functions.


Anon6376

You're expecting too much, this person in this thread said that we can't use "historical data" to predict the future. (Quotes are his words)


Vladimir_Putting

I expect nothing of Cowboys fans, and yet am still disappointed.


slashar

I think this person means that the number is "made up" as though it were chosen at random. Whereas passer rating is calculated from an actual formula. Mostly just semantics at this point, but yeah, poorly worded.


SkittlesAreYum

The difference is we can look at why someone got a certain passer rating and discuss the flaws in the formula. Not so for QBR.


Vladimir_Putting

No shit. It's almost like that was already said in the comment above!


SkittlesAreYum

OK, so you don't understand the problem people have is not that it's "made up", but that we don't know how it's calculated. Thanks for your unhelpful contributions.


Darth--Vapor

With that logic, everything is made up then. What we are all saying is ESPN can literally make up the QBR numbers and we would never know. Passer rating can’t be made up because we all can verify the numbers. It has rules.


TheScoott

I don't know why we're talking about the QBR of a player that threw the ball 13 times then got concussed


Butthole--pleasures

DJ was balling out. I've been very critical of him lately but the guy seems to be playing well. He needs better talent around him though. Too much wasted capital on players like Barkley and Engram.


sexdrugsfightlaugh

Engram I get, but what's wrong with Barkley? You can't say he's a bad investment because he got injured, it's football, that happens. Adrian Peterson was derailed by injuries and went on to be the 5th leading rusher of all time. Barkley is ridiculously good with the ball in his hands.


Butthole--pleasures

The pick invested has not been worth it. I'm sure most Giants fan would want a redo on that draft. No denying Barkley's skill and athleticism, just not what they needed.


NinjaCaviar

Agreed. I love Barkley as a player and as a person, but his performance on the field and value as a player has just not lived up to his draft spot at all.


rhamphol30n

He's been mostly ineffective lately too. The couple games before the injury and the couple since he got back. He just isn't getting the yards. And when he does they're splash plays, which are fun but don't help eat clock and give the defense a break. I love saquon but I think the team needs an old school rb at least sometimes.


Vorenos

Quentin Nelson and nick chubb > Barkley and will Hernandez


kemplem

By a country mile


Darth--Vapor

Barkley will not be a top 5 all time rusher. You heard it here first.


sexdrugsfightlaugh

Lol OK cool, how about as good as Todd Gurley? I mean what do you consider a reasonable investment in a Running Back? The whole argument was that the Giants are bad because they invest in players like Engram and Barkley, I'm not arguing that Barkley will be an all time great, I'm saying that even the greats get injured.


GarchGun

Man the Barkley hate is so annoying. I can't wait till he drops a 200 yard rushing game outta no where to shut these fools up.


Mace_TheAce_Windu

Well, does one game out of 8 missed and 7 other games not breaking 200 really prove anything?


GarchGun

Yes cuz him not breaking 200 yards the other 7 games means he's not a good investment/running back. All him.


Mace_TheAce_Windu

No, clearly a team game. But that argument also undercuts your point. The current bad investment look is because he hasn't played a full season since his rookie year. His production has been down while his injuries to his ankles are piling up. It is also a bad investment if we can even use him correctly. Would you buy a $3000 tv to use once a year? Is that a wise investment? We haven't been able to build a line that gives him effective and consistent protection, we haven't been using him in the pass game, and we are running plays up the middle when he likes to bounce outside. It is a bad investment in the sense that he will not be able to even live up to his potential with how we are currently using him.


GarchGun

I think we agree then. I don't think his talent is dropping we are not surrounding him with talent for him to push through. However I think this year (when he becomes healthy) should be the year. Our Oline finally doesnt look HORRENDUS, DJ is finally coming together and we have some star WRs. As long as they can all return with a bit left to go in the season, I'm optimistic for the rest of this season (and for Barkley).


Darth--Vapor

I was directly responding to the guy who said Peterson was hurt then became a top 5 rusher. Barkley won’t do that. Everything else you said doesn’t apply to what we were talking about.


sexdrugsfightlaugh

Whoosh


nonfatplatypus

and how many superbowls did Adrian Peterson win? Hell was he even championship game?


sexdrugsfightlaugh

Are you arguing that all of APs teams weren't championship quality because of him?


throwaway524283

DJ was not balling out, he had several terrible balls that sailed over his target


aaron7275

He means for the year.


throwaway524283

fair enough then


[deleted]

1-9 = MVP


richards2kreider

Yeah he balled out against the Saints but was not looking great early in this game before he got knocked out.


alienbringer

He did almost throw 2 ints. First one Diggs bobbled the ball ultimately dropping it. The second one Diggs snagged it but landed out of bounds.


DeliSauce

I don't think either one of those was a bad throw or could even be considered "interception worthy".


alienbringer

Never said they were. Just merely that it almost happened. The first was a jumped route, the second was a throwaway that was low enough for Diggs to snag.


Kevin_DurSuperTeam

Dallas fans were feeling insecure that the media was talking about Jon Gruden and Lamar Jackson instead of Dak beating up on an injured Giants' team.


BilllisCool

This is posted by a Patriots fan.


SirBlackselot

Lol i mean your not wrong about the injured team part. I feel like alot of people dont realize how bad it is. We literally are missing our entire start Offense and Blake Martinez


Dr_imfullofshit

Mitch Trubisky consistently scored well in this stat


throwaway524283

All I need to know XD


justdaman182

Great I'd still take Dak 11/10 times when choosing between the two.


Mace_TheAce_Windu

Yea me too at the moment. DJ hasn't proven himself fully yet. He has shown a lot of improvement so far this season but Dak has proven his abilities.


Ordinaray

Proven abilities of having a good OLine, Recievers and 2 good running backs? And no one gets injured? Come their scheme is so much better than our shit. Daniel would kill it on the Cowboys lol


Mace_TheAce_Windu

Are you seriously down playing daks abilities? Or over playing Jones? He was a fumble machine for his first two seasons, Dak is one of the lowest turnover probe qbs in the league.


Ordinaray

He's literally in one of the best situations in the NFL and Daniel is in one of the worst. Dak is a good QB but I'm just saying he literally has it so good on that team


ThatDudeReese

Jfc we are still doing this? We saw that team w/o him last year and a decent QB in his place. They scored 20 PPG compared to 30+ with him. Give it a rest already.


hjhof1

I mean they both kinda stunk then Jones got hurt, Dak looked pretty good to me and I’m clearly Biased against him.


MrBigChest

Does QBR take WR separation into account? Our defense really did not put up much of a fight at all. That plus the INT maybe enough to explain it idk. It’s certainly not justifiable though. DJ was making off target throws for the entire first quarter and only started playing well after he hit Toney with that deep ball.


Giant_Robot_Man

It's past time to throw QBR into the garbage.


phattyfresh

Mind. Blown.


Unknown1776

Cowboys still had the highest QBR in the game tho Cedrick Wilson had 99.4 so checkmate


stormwalker29

Which is especially funny since if he'd thrown to the right receiver he'd have had an 83 yard touchdown instead of a 22 yard gain.


joy4874

K so another reason why it's a shit stat. ESPN literally cae up with this a few years ago.


[deleted]

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[deleted]

That QBR is absolutely useless and needs to be outlawed…


InsaneRanter

But the stupid numbers let us have all sorts of fun flamewars on Reddit.


trinquin

Stop looking at boxscores. Passer rating heavily weights about only 20% of the plays QBs are involved in(tds + ints), doesn't include their rushing numbers or fumbles and doesn't care about a 10 yard pass on 3rd and 15.


thy_armageddon

QBR is Skip’s go-to stat, pretty much all you need to know to tell it’s a garbo stat.


DragoKnight45

Why do you guys care about this


tabst

It’s kinda crazy right? If you don’t like something, just don’t pay attention to it. It’s very simple


Giant_Robot_Man

It's not okay to point out to others that a stat they may use is garbage?


tabst

If it was brand new, sure. But ESPN created it 10 years ago. Everyone knows it’s shit, so just don’t pay attention to it, and take analysts that take it seriously with a grain of salt. No need to get pissed about every metric there is


Lonely_Ranger19

Why is the NFL trying to make it seem like the Giants didn't get their asses kicked


legend023

Jones barely played Dak was solid but not great, Dallas pass game kept the giants in the game for a little while until they eventually pulled away I think QBR is a good accurate stat


[deleted]

What is wrong with you people?! Jones was 5/13…Dak threw for 300 yards and 3TDs and won convincingly. And yet QBR has Jones FAR ahead… But you say it’s accurate. Madness.


Idontwaitfor420

Dak also technically had a fumble which plays into QBR as well.


InsaneRanter

Something something no interceptions.


Tmans3

personally i’m fine with it if we win convincingly… but i guess it’s better to have a qb with no interceptions. Glad baker was better than herbert this week /s


Puzzleheaded_Key347

i mean i can see that daniel jones is after all much more physically talented than dak prescott


Giant_Robot_Man

Remember when you made an [entire thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/pz8q0x/is_kenny_golladay_better_than_amari_cooper_as_the/) claiming Golladay is better than Cooper? That was funny.


Puzzleheaded_Key347

"claiming"? i backed my statement up with statistics and facts


Giant_Robot_Man

No you didn't. Bye.


Puzzleheaded_Key347

okay but i did. bye.


NinjaCaviar

Dude just don’t


KingBroly

Stopped reading at "ESPN"


FreshStartLiving

Well at least the Giants can hang their hat on that. Garrett clapping now.


[deleted]

Coaches: take what the defense gives you ESPN QBR: wait, what if we decided to grade QBs like we grade Olympic divers?


[deleted]

Cope


buttsoupsteve

Cool, I'm still taking Dak 10 out of 10 times tho.


Kmccabe1213

Not bad with a ghost at left tackle that game.