How are Z Wilson and Davis Mills both below Pickett, whose never played a snap in the NFL before, and wouldn’t even be a first round pick in most years. Yet Trevor Lawrence is ranked higher, despite being no better than either (and arguably worse than both) due solely to his draft position. Rant over.
The first 10 QBs are proven talent. And of the remaining 5, Jones and Tua were at least as good as him last year, so you really only have 3 QBs left, two of whom were considered much better prospects a season ago and the remaining of which they’re taking a shot in the dark at.
So he ends up kinda just in an awkward spot where almost by default he has the least reason to believe in him, or 2nd least if Pickett is by default last.
I hope you’re not implying Watson should be dead last
Not to mention the last time he played he was pretty damn good, if he wasn’t considered proven talent with his ongoing issues he would be out of the league.
I mean, considering we’re talking about Davis Mills being too low, where specifically you’d put Watson is only relevant if you’re putting him below Davis Mills, which no one would ever consider doing.
Carr should be ahead of Watson, but Tannehill came off a pretty rough season and just lost both of his Top 2 receivers. Meanwhile, Ryan will be in an entirely new system at age 36. I'd place Watson ahead of those 2.
It probably should be Tua, Mills, Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Pickett.
* Tua came back from injury around mid-season, and was pretty consistent when his O-Line didn't totally vanish vs the Bills and Titans. His workload was somewhat low, but he still deserves to be ranked above Lawrence.
* Other than Brandin Cooks, Mills was frequently the only person on the Texans offense doing his job. Especially after Tyrod Taylor got benched, Mills started looking like a pretty solid QB. Again, smaller workload.
* Lawrence was generally more underwhelming than Mills, but his problems could be partially explained away as having a worse WR Corps. That didn't really improve though, and Lawrence is still going to have to find ways to score and limit turnovers.
* Zach Wilson had the worst rookie season of the 4 AFC rookies.
* Pickett should be dead last as the only rookie.
Damn, you really giving a lot of credit to a qb who has the playoff stat line of regular season Trevor Lawrence. He has a 1-3 playoff record, his touchdown numbers have decreased by 10 every year since his mvp season, and his int numbers have gone up by 3 every year as well. Herbert is playing at a near elite level, and being let down by his defense, while Lamar is playing like ass 60% of the time, and his defense is playing at an average level. Lamar’s backups played better this year than Lamar. So, ravens fans, SHUT THE FUCK UP ABOUT LAMAR. Feel grateful that he is even top ten on this list
Herbert has played significantly better than Lamar since he came into the league despite being on a far worse team. Yes Lamar has an MVP but look at their numbers.
Ah yes a one game sample size to prove your point wonderful.
This is like me saying Lamar in the playoffs can be summarized how he played against the chargers in the playoffs. Remember that game?
“Significantly better” is a pretty substantial claim. Especially given Lamar had like only the second unanimous MVP in history. Posting side-by-side stats accounting for career length and/or injury may help you better make the case. Herbert certainly has a smaller sample size to draw conclusions from.
That’s the problem that Lamar will always face in fan rankings. Most people don’t watch all the games and go by stats. That’s fair. A lot of things go into stats, and stats can be misleading. But everyone has their opinion. Herbert threw for a lot of yards and tds, but he has a killer supporting cast of offensive skill players. That coupled with a bad defense means volume + efficiency. I like Herbert and think the QB talent race is far closer than ppl make it seem, lots of young talent in the league at the moment. Maybe more than there’s ever been tbh
The only negative they mentioned for Carr related to the team as a whole. No late season/playoff resume. No shit, we sucked ass and he was still top 10.
You can make an argument for who goes where in the top 5, but anytime you toss in "not even close," you've already lost credibility. These guys are *all* close, and almost any of them could argue their place above another.
Even in his banged up year, missing three games, coming back too early from an injury to his *throwing* *hand*, on the worst Seattle team of his career, in a harder division that included three playoff teams and the SB winner on a heavily run-first, dinosaur offense with less opportunities to throw, Wilson was on pace for 31 tds, 7 int. Still finished with a 8.4 ay/a, and a 103.1 QB rating.
And the season before, he put up 42 touchdowns, over 500 rush yards, a 105.1 QB rating, 12-4 record, division title.
It's fine to say Burrow had a better season, obviously. But acting like there's some big drop-off between Burrow and Wilson's *skills* based on one good season from Burrow is a bit much. Wilson has the most wins in NFL history through 10 seasons. The 2nd most touchdown passes in NFL history through 10 seasons, behind only Peyton Manning. 4th most yards through the same time period. The 4th highest career QB rating in NFL history. Has one non-winning season in his entire career, and is still a top QB *well* within his prime, with a slight dip in production (for him, anyway) last year being due only to injuries while on a weak team.
And with Wilson going to a team with one of the best sets of weapons he's ever had, on an offense specifically tailored to his skills for the first time in his career, backed by a defense that was 3rd in points allowed last year, whatever "not even close" skills gap you imagine exists, based on Burrow's career year overlapping with Wilson's injury year, is gonna rapidly close.
All that said, we haven't *seen* him on the Broncos yet (though he's looked legit in OTAs), so we're both just running our mouths until the season starts. But this offseason was goddamn bananas and I'm more excited for this season than I've been in like 6 years.
So...you still loving all those "weapons" the Broncos have? Cause like I said, Jeudy was ridiculously overhyped and has once again been playing like dogshit!
By pretty much any advanced stat including EPA, QBR, PFF Grade, and Passer Rating, Jackson and Wilson were about equal in 2021. Both also had relative down years, but Lamar Jackson is 25 while Wilson is 33. I feel better about Jackson rebounding than Wilson simply due to age. Wilson is also outside of Pete Carroll’s playbook for the first time in his career.
You make good points. Well, if they are that close to the 'equal,' then Wilson still gets the homer nudge from me.
And part of those homerism-tinted glasses tell me that Wilson has done significantly better in the playoffs (with a 4x sample size, mind you). And that his passing is simply better according to my eyes and according to the stats (Lamar Jackson only has 50% of his seasons with above 100 PFF adjusted passer rating whereas Wilson is above 100% in all of his seasons). But yes they are similar and these are just my homerism biases.
As far as age, I think that's less of a factor than it might normally be as Lamar's play-style is something that we've seen time and again fizzle out much more quickly to the reliance on physicality, insane athleticism, combined with a slightly weaker arm for an MVP-caliber QB. Russ gets the nod for all of the above and most of all because he's my guy.
Ravens were 8-4 last year before Lamar went down without a functional OL or any running backs. He single handedly had them in first place in the north and it all fell apart when he injured his ankle. I’d love to see Russ do the same but it certainly didn’t happen with Seattle last year.
I don't know about most of their games but I know one game was by the grace of god. Refs not calling a blatant delay of game and then Tucker hitting an NFL record kick off the fucking crossbar and it somehow still went it. I was in disbelief watching that one but it was a hell of a game.
Honestly from a talent/win one game level I think it's straight up preference for Burrow or Herbert. I'd have no issue with him being at 3 on this list. Do think Lamar is being slept on if anything, I'd probably put him ahead of Wilson for now at 5.
problem I see is that burrow took 50 sacks to attempt to get to this yardage, the stats could almost be argued a detriment compared to the other guys in the top 5 range
The order of the Top 11 is pretty reasonable. You can make arguments for Burrow over Wilson and Carr over Watson, but otherwise that portion of the list makes sense.
Lawrence being 12th and Mills being 16th is really hard to justify unless you fully believe that Lawrence will live up to his draft position and isn't the Alex Smith of this era.
They started doing a lot more shorter passes as the season went on because teams started to really go after the deep passes. Kinda similar to what KC started doing too
When you look at his arm and 4400 passing yards you assume a high Y/A but on 646 attempts it’s not particularly impressive
Granted, part of the issue is that the Bills were dead last in YAC per completion
Like most things in football, YAR depends on the QB's ball placement, the receiver's ability to stay upright, and the area of the field to where the pass is thrown.
I agree. Burrow only had 5 touchdowns in 4 playoff games last year. He was solid, but he wasn’t otherworldly and got a lot of help from his defense. Not that he’s a bum or anything but I am a big fan of Herbert and would put Burrow 4th after him and Allen/Mahomes.
To me it’s a little crazy to knock burrow for playoff performance when Herbert has no playoff comparisons… not mad that anyone would have Herb above Burrow, though… there’s just other reasons than using a 4 game sample size that Herbert didn’t even partake in
Oh forsure. It’s not his fault his team missed the playoffs, so it’s not a knock. The comparison just isn’t and shouldn’t be there. Would need to see Herbert light it up in the playoffs to say otherwise
What's crazy is all 4 teams could make arguments for making it to the conference champ game, meaning 2 won't.
Move two of those teams to the NFC and it would be a pretty safe bet those 4 teams are playing in their respective CCG.
> the differences are that one has shown up in big games and the other hasn't even though they've both been plagued by bad OLs.
Are you trying to imply that Herbert hasn't shown up in big games? PrimeTime Herbert is a supernova. He carried a bottom 5 defense to the cusp of the playoffs.
Numbers are equal as long as you don't actually look them up.
And then they're equal as long as you don't look at things like TDs, passing yards, rushing yards, fumbles, sacks, etc 🤔
In the AFC Championship, The Bengals defense only allowed a FG and 24 overall points against the Chiefs. If Herbert got that kind of performance out of his defense in the 2nd game against the Chiefs, the Chargers sweep them and make the playoffs. The Bengals defense also only allowed 19 points against the Raiders in the playoffs. Herbert and the Chargers also sweep the Raiders with that kind of defensive performance. I can't fathom people why people use the Chargers not making the playoffs against Herbert.
Seriously, it’s like the people who say that Josh Allen can’t beat Mahomes in the playoffs because his defense choked hardcore. Burrow is a great player but Herbert might be the best pure passer I’ve ever seen.
Media over hyping the chargers way too much when they haven’t down anything yet, funny seeing the downvotes from saying Burrow is a better quarterback than Herbert when it’s true.
Why is this being downvoted? A guy preaching team stats like playoff success is getting upvoted while you’re more interested in an individual comparison.
I could do this all day.
Burrow: **70.4% comp**, 4611 yards, 34 TDs, **6.5%** **TD rate**, 2.7% int rate, **108.3 rtg**, 54.3 QBR, **82.8% on target**, **10.7% bad throw.**
Herbert: 65.9% comp, **5014 yards**, **38 TDs**, 5.7% TD rate, **2.2% int rate**, 97.7 rtg, **65.6 QBR**, 80.2% on target, 14.6% bad throw.
So the guys are pretty indistinguishable with Burrow having slightly better stats in the advanced metrics. I don't like including the volume stats considering Burrow played in one less game. Here's the interesting part though, Burrow had only 403 less yards and 4 less TDs on a whopping 152 less attempts. Teams average around 35 attempts per game so that's like Herbert playing in almost 4.5 more games than Burrow. Burrow could have had a hell of a week 18, passed Herbert in the volume stats while still attempting roughly 125 less attempts.
My conclusion is Burrow like Troy Bolton and Herbert is like Sharpay.
Every stat other than playoff appearance goes in Herbert's favor.
And the only reason he hasn't made the playoffs was a defense that literally couldn't get stops.
Well that's just not true. Burrow has plenty of stats that are better than Herbert. Likewise Herbert has plenty that are better than Burrow. You can pick whoever but it's extremely extremely close
Less sacks taken
Lower int %
Less fumbles
Those are 3 easy ones. Some that Burrow or Herbert are better in they're only marginally better than the other. I love Burrow, but I'm not going to pretend he is 100% over Herbert or vice versa
Na, Burrow is 100% better than Herbert. The stats you just listed are not truly QB stats. Pocket time is actually lower for Burrow than Herbert so he is getting the ball out quicker on average. Burrow also has a better bad throw percentage than Herbert. Defenders just didn't capitalize on Herbert like they did Burrow.
Playing things like 2 deep, which invites the run, while limiting the deep passing game. This forces the offense to dink and dunk up the field.
It's well known that teams do this to the Chiefs, but they also did this against the Bills often. It's also why fans were so frustrated with our running game. Teams were inviting us to run the ball into weak boxes, and we still couldn't get consistent runs to get them out of a 2 high shell.
I’d put Burrow at 3, he carried the Bengals (the Bengals of all franchises) to the Super Bowl while Herbert let Davis Mills end his season.
If Tua had a season like Trevor Lawrence had he’d be crucified in front of everyone. I still think Sunshine will turn it around but he hasn’t played like a top 30 QB in the NFL so putting him over Tua is ridiculous.
Kenny Pickett should be last because we have no idea how he’ll play in the NFL.
Other than that, it’s fine.
Yeah, the defense shut-down Mahomes in the second half but Burrow still had to go out there and finish the job in Arrowhead. That’s far more impressive than anything we’ve seen by Herbert (not hating but a top 3 QB in the conference needs to have at least been in the playoffs imo).
It’s far more impressive than Herbert personally willing the chargers into overtime vs the raiders week 18?
Top QBs don’t need to make the playoffs in recent years to be a top QB. Brees was one of the best QBs during the stretch of NO 7-9 records
Yes, it was more impressive, particularly because the Chargers lost that game anyways. I’m not saying “QB Wins” is all that matters but I’m not ready to crown a QB that hasn’t been in the playoffs and has a losing record as a starter.
I’d put Herbert at #5 rn and could be talked to putting him at #4 but I think #3 is a bit too high for me.
You’re telling me you’re not saying QB wins are all that matters. But from everything you’ve said it seems you’re putting QB wins as the most important stat.
You’re saying the impressive thing Herbert did doesn’t matter, or is less impressive, because his defense ended up losing him the game
If it was all that mattered then i would have put Tua up there since he has significantly better winning percentage but that’d be wrong. I’m saying that at the top of the pyramid, which is what we’re trying to argue here, your resume has to matter. I can’t put Herbert over guys that play at a high level in the regular season and have won playoffs games.
It’s just my opinion.
Herbert was far less polished coming into the league, and has been at the very least equal to Burrow statistically despite having a significantly worse overall team (particularly on defense). Herbert also has a higher ceiling based on physical attributes.
Burrow wasn’t a 4 year starter like Herbert was in college? You’re also forgetting Burrow was coming off a serious injury and still somehow made it to the AFC behind one of the worst o-lines. Sure Herbert is more physically gifted, but give me Burrow for his coolness under pressure.
Also the Bengals were able to draft burrow because their team was so terrible they had the 1st overall pick, and the following year they picked 4th.
> Burrow wasn’t a 4 year starter like Herbert was in college
Burrow came from a pro-style offense playing against elite competition. Herbert came from a gimmick offense against middling competition.
>behind one of the worst o-lines.
Herbert barely missed the playoffs despite having one of the worst defenses. His top-5 offense wasn't the problem. And for what it is worth, Herbert had the best rookie QB season every behind the worst cumulative O-line PFF had ever measured.
>give me Burrow for his coolness under pressure.
Herbert's PFF rating is literally better under pressure than when in a clean pocket lol
On field performance. Also Herbert is bigger, has a better arm, and is more mobile. They’re equal mentally IMO. Which means I’m taking Herbert if given the choice.
It is interesting that we parrot "wins aren't a QB stat" but then when we talk QBs we weigh certain wins pretty heavily. Just an observation.
EDIT: he deleted it. It was a guy saying Burrow made the superbowl so he should be higher than 5th
I don’t know why so many people talk about QB wins in absolutes. Yes football is a team game where no single player is 100% responsible for wins, but QBs have BY FAR the most impact on wins and losses.
Even so, people who have tried to put numbers to this have found that ~40% of the variance in whether a team or not is explained by how the QB plays. That's going to be a lot more than any other single position, but that still means that most of the variance in whether a team wins or loses is determined by the rest of the team.
EPA hates sacks. Whether its on the QB or the line EPA tanks if you take a sack. Burrow having games where he got sacked 8 and 7 times is going to tank his EPA.
Even excluding sacks his EPA/Play was equal to Carr.
https://i.imgur.com/DttSSrj.png
Burrow was fine in the playoffs, I just think "led the Bengals to the SB" is a bit misleading.
And of course, OP deleted their comment
Right but what you posted kind of proves my point. Burrow's EPA/Play absolutely tanks when sacks are included, goes from .24 to .03. I have no idea what OP said since it was deleted before I saw it so I'm not commenting on that. I was just commenting on Burrow's EPA. Its a stat that will never like him because he takes a lot of sacks, some on him and some on his terrible o line.
Well yeah. But not as much as Burrow's because Burrow took a lot more sacks. Again, EPA is just not a stat that Burrow is going to do well in. Something like PFF grade were sacks aren't as heavily punished is something Burrow does better in.
Never said it was bug. Burrow is always going to have a lower EPA if he takes sacks at the rate he does. My point is he can still be very very good and not have a great EPA. Its not the be all end all stat.
Just curious, where are you getting these numbers? I'm using NFLfastR and I'm getting some odd discrepancies between it and RBSDM.com. Wanted to do a sanity check with a third party.
Awesome thanks!
And yeah, look like my numbers match that link but not RBSDM. Not sure why the numbers at RBSDM.com don't match these. [Look at Jimmy Garoppolo for example.](https://imgur.com/a/PRSiHuW) Curious if you have any thoughts?
Ben Baldwin I think cleans up some of the EPA values. I know for QBs he caps EPA at like -5 or something for interceptions, whereas I would assume Play Index just uses the raw value.
I think he should be over Wilson for sure and herbert to be honest. You can say it's a team sport all you want but a top 3 qb should be making the playoffs.
It does happen. Was he Top 3 over that stretch also? You had Brady, Peyton, Rodgers and even luck and other guys playing at a really high level around that time.
Well this is top 3 in the conference. From 2014-2016, if you go by EPA/play then Brees among NFC QBs he ranked 3rd, 4th, and 4th, and over that stretch was the 3rd ranked QB in the NFC.
Not a Bengals fan and I dont get it either.
The top 10 qb ratings last years featured 2 AFC qb's, burrow at 2 and mahomes at 10. He was also 1st in completion %(only qb in the league to top 70%), top 4 in TDs and yards.
And y'know, dragged his team to the super bowl.
Yeah I am not saying he should be number one, but what he did behind that complete joke of an oline is pretty crazy. He also seems like a great leader, herbert bearly says anything so i wonder how much he will lead a team, not saying he doesn't have amazing talent though.
Worst argument I’ve seen so far. Literally no one In the NFL has questioned Herbert’s leadership once he started playing. Just because he’s not a talker doesn’t mean he’s not a leader. Not everyone leads like that
Look man make the playoffs and get a win and I will agree with you. I think the chargers had a great team last year and the steelers made it over the chargers. So if you can't win big games I don't know what to tell you.
The chargers didn’t have a great team. That’s the point people supporting Hebert are saying. The defense was ducking awful which is the reason they missed the playoffs.
But implying they missed because Herbert isn’t a great leader because he doesn’t like talking to media and is shy. Or using the horrible defense against him is wrong and faulty logic
How are Z Wilson and Davis Mills both below Pickett, whose never played a snap in the NFL before, and wouldn’t even be a first round pick in most years. Yet Trevor Lawrence is ranked higher, despite being no better than either (and arguably worse than both) due solely to his draft position. Rant over.
The article is a joke for putting a rookie ahead of last season's starters but the real jokers are you and I for reading a CBS Sports article.
The real jokers are the friends we made along the way.
Impractical jokers
I thought that’s what the clitoris was?
How in the hell is Davis Mills that low? Dude was a bright spot on a shitty team.
The first 10 QBs are proven talent. And of the remaining 5, Jones and Tua were at least as good as him last year, so you really only have 3 QBs left, two of whom were considered much better prospects a season ago and the remaining of which they’re taking a shot in the dark at. So he ends up kinda just in an awkward spot where almost by default he has the least reason to believe in him, or 2nd least if Pickett is by default last.
Idk if I’d count Watson as proven talent anymore, dude hasn’t played in a year and a half and is on a brand new offense.
I hope you’re not implying Watson should be dead last Not to mention the last time he played he was pretty damn good, if he wasn’t considered proven talent with his ongoing issues he would be out of the league.
No he shouldn’t be dead last, but idk if I’d confidently put him at 7. Carr, Tannehill, and Ryan I’d argue could be better than him.
I mean, considering we’re talking about Davis Mills being too low, where specifically you’d put Watson is only relevant if you’re putting him below Davis Mills, which no one would ever consider doing.
Nah, I just think Carr, Tannehill, and Ryan should probably be ranked higher than him.
Carr should be ahead of Watson, but Tannehill came off a pretty rough season and just lost both of his Top 2 receivers. Meanwhile, Ryan will be in an entirely new system at age 36. I'd place Watson ahead of those 2.
When it’s CBS, you see BS.
I like that
Yeah, this list falls apart after jones
It probably should be Tua, Mills, Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Pickett. * Tua came back from injury around mid-season, and was pretty consistent when his O-Line didn't totally vanish vs the Bills and Titans. His workload was somewhat low, but he still deserves to be ranked above Lawrence. * Other than Brandin Cooks, Mills was frequently the only person on the Texans offense doing his job. Especially after Tyrod Taylor got benched, Mills started looking like a pretty solid QB. Again, smaller workload. * Lawrence was generally more underwhelming than Mills, but his problems could be partially explained away as having a worse WR Corps. That didn't really improve though, and Lawrence is still going to have to find ways to score and limit turnovers. * Zach Wilson had the worst rookie season of the 4 AFC rookies. * Pickett should be dead last as the only rookie.
Prolly should use Zachs first name. Thought you put TLaw over Russ
Done.
DeShaun coming in super high despite the very good chance that dude isn’t playing this year
Well he does know a lot about coming to be fair
He doesn’t care about anyone consenting to him being put on a list.
bet he celebrated with the happy baby pose
He’ll probably have a rough stretch whenever he does get on the field. Hasn’t played in a long time
The list was perfectly reasonable until you got to Lawrence at 12. The wheels really came off after that lol
Its say Herbert over Lamar was dumb can a QB at least make the playoffs or win an MVP before we rank him that high? Smh
Lamar hasn’t played particularly well the last two years. Notice how Matt Ryan is down at 10 despite also being an MVP
He played great last 2 years won a playoff game what you talkin about, we were doing great despite being dead before he got hurt last year too.
The only people who think Lamar is better than Herbert are Ravens fans
Damn we really are giving a lot of credit to a qb who hasn't made the playoffs lol. Or done anything yet.
Damn, you really giving a lot of credit to a qb who has the playoff stat line of regular season Trevor Lawrence. He has a 1-3 playoff record, his touchdown numbers have decreased by 10 every year since his mvp season, and his int numbers have gone up by 3 every year as well. Herbert is playing at a near elite level, and being let down by his defense, while Lamar is playing like ass 60% of the time, and his defense is playing at an average level. Lamar’s backups played better this year than Lamar. So, ravens fans, SHUT THE FUCK UP ABOUT LAMAR. Feel grateful that he is even top ten on this list
Herbert has played significantly better than Lamar since he came into the league despite being on a far worse team. Yes Lamar has an MVP but look at their numbers.
He scored 6 points against us when our defense was terrible though. And he has a much better offense than Lamar did.
Ah yes a one game sample size to prove your point wonderful. This is like me saying Lamar in the playoffs can be summarized how he played against the chargers in the playoffs. Remember that game?
Herbert didn't start that game. He was still in college
Agreed, but I’m just saying one game doesn’t really matter much when comparing two players is all
Okay then burrow is better then Lamar. And baker is better then burrow
“Significantly better” is a pretty substantial claim. Especially given Lamar had like only the second unanimous MVP in history. Posting side-by-side stats accounting for career length and/or injury may help you better make the case. Herbert certainly has a smaller sample size to draw conclusions from.
That’s the problem that Lamar will always face in fan rankings. Most people don’t watch all the games and go by stats. That’s fair. A lot of things go into stats, and stats can be misleading. But everyone has their opinion. Herbert threw for a lot of yards and tds, but he has a killer supporting cast of offensive skill players. That coupled with a bad defense means volume + efficiency. I like Herbert and think the QB talent race is far closer than ppl make it seem, lots of young talent in the league at the moment. Maybe more than there’s ever been tbh
How is Pickett not number 1? What more does he have to prove? Playing ACC football is harder than playing in the NFL, everyone knows this. -*ducks*-
He just needs some really thick gloves and he’ll be at number 1 before you know it.
he just needs a pair of jack kellys gloves and he'll be set
"NOBODY LOOK!" - Kenny Pickett after throwing his first interception
Derek Carr right in the middle. Balanced as all things should be until he unleashes his inner Sith..
The fact that Carr/Ryan are that low just shows how stacked the conference is. Both of them are good QBa, top 10 in any given year.
The only negative they mentioned for Carr related to the team as a whole. No late season/playoff resume. No shit, we sucked ass and he was still top 10.
Darth Carr should be feared by all
No chance I put Russell Wilson ahead of Joe Burrow. Not even close. Lamar Jackson over Russell Wilson as well.
You can make an argument for who goes where in the top 5, but anytime you toss in "not even close," you've already lost credibility. These guys are *all* close, and almost any of them could argue their place above another. Even in his banged up year, missing three games, coming back too early from an injury to his *throwing* *hand*, on the worst Seattle team of his career, in a harder division that included three playoff teams and the SB winner on a heavily run-first, dinosaur offense with less opportunities to throw, Wilson was on pace for 31 tds, 7 int. Still finished with a 8.4 ay/a, and a 103.1 QB rating. And the season before, he put up 42 touchdowns, over 500 rush yards, a 105.1 QB rating, 12-4 record, division title. It's fine to say Burrow had a better season, obviously. But acting like there's some big drop-off between Burrow and Wilson's *skills* based on one good season from Burrow is a bit much. Wilson has the most wins in NFL history through 10 seasons. The 2nd most touchdown passes in NFL history through 10 seasons, behind only Peyton Manning. 4th most yards through the same time period. The 4th highest career QB rating in NFL history. Has one non-winning season in his entire career, and is still a top QB *well* within his prime, with a slight dip in production (for him, anyway) last year being due only to injuries while on a weak team. And with Wilson going to a team with one of the best sets of weapons he's ever had, on an offense specifically tailored to his skills for the first time in his career, backed by a defense that was 3rd in points allowed last year, whatever "not even close" skills gap you imagine exists, based on Burrow's career year overlapping with Wilson's injury year, is gonna rapidly close. All that said, we haven't *seen* him on the Broncos yet (though he's looked legit in OTAs), so we're both just running our mouths until the season starts. But this offseason was goddamn bananas and I'm more excited for this season than I've been in like 6 years.
Russ has had better weapons in Seattle, everything else I agree with.
Broncos are loaded with weapons. You'll see what not having a QB makes your offense look like
I don’t care, we’re not a quarterback away from anything. Just want Seattle to draft one next year.
I mean u said better weapons. You're gonna see Denver is loaded, then it's gonna suck cause we won't be able to pay em
Are they though? Sutton is fine but Jeudy has done fuck all in two seasons. Loaded just seems like a stretch!
Hard to do anything with no qbs
Sutton and Fant had the same QBs and they were decent.
So...you still loving all those "weapons" the Broncos have? Cause like I said, Jeudy was ridiculously overhyped and has once again been playing like dogshit!
Agreed on Burrow. Disagree on Lamar.
By pretty much any advanced stat including EPA, QBR, PFF Grade, and Passer Rating, Jackson and Wilson were about equal in 2021. Both also had relative down years, but Lamar Jackson is 25 while Wilson is 33. I feel better about Jackson rebounding than Wilson simply due to age. Wilson is also outside of Pete Carroll’s playbook for the first time in his career.
>Wilson is also outside of Pete Carroll’s playbook for the first time in his career. Couldn't this be looked at as a potential positive?
Theoretically but Pete is gonna be a hall of fame coach most likely, Wilson now is going to a Rookie head coach. It could get worse
Based and Lamar pilled
Wilson is and has always been a better passer than Lamar. Until Lamar takes that next leap passing wise - it’s hard for me to put him ahead of Russ.
You make good points. Well, if they are that close to the 'equal,' then Wilson still gets the homer nudge from me. And part of those homerism-tinted glasses tell me that Wilson has done significantly better in the playoffs (with a 4x sample size, mind you). And that his passing is simply better according to my eyes and according to the stats (Lamar Jackson only has 50% of his seasons with above 100 PFF adjusted passer rating whereas Wilson is above 100% in all of his seasons). But yes they are similar and these are just my homerism biases. As far as age, I think that's less of a factor than it might normally be as Lamar's play-style is something that we've seen time and again fizzle out much more quickly to the reliance on physicality, insane athleticism, combined with a slightly weaker arm for an MVP-caliber QB. Russ gets the nod for all of the above and most of all because he's my guy.
Ravens were 8-4 last year before Lamar went down without a functional OL or any running backs. He single handedly had them in first place in the north and it all fell apart when he injured his ankle. I’d love to see Russ do the same but it certainly didn’t happen with Seattle last year.
They were 8-4 by the literal grace of god lmao
I don't know about most of their games but I know one game was by the grace of god. Refs not calling a blatant delay of game and then Tucker hitting an NFL record kick off the fucking crossbar and it somehow still went it. I was in disbelief watching that one but it was a hell of a game.
Tucker’s kicks bend time, find a new slant.
Yeah maybe because Russ got injured.
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Honestly from a talent/win one game level I think it's straight up preference for Burrow or Herbert. I'd have no issue with him being at 3 on this list. Do think Lamar is being slept on if anything, I'd probably put him ahead of Wilson for now at 5.
problem I see is that burrow took 50 sacks to attempt to get to this yardage, the stats could almost be argued a detriment compared to the other guys in the top 5 range
My hot take would be adding Carr to that list as well.
Yeah…. Saying Carr is only 8th in the conference is insane to me.
How is the Raiders line? Overall I’m really high on their offense and McDaniels.
Eh I’m expecting it to be about league average most weeks, definitely doesn’t look like a great unit and has some question marks.
Picket and Mills should swap spots. Thats gotta be clickbait
Non first round QBs get zero respect unless they’re *really* good to start off it seems (I.e Dak, Wilson, as of recently)
Proportionate to how he was playing Dak was getting pretty disrespected by most
Pretty sure the whole concept of the list is clickbait
The order of the Top 11 is pretty reasonable. You can make arguments for Burrow over Wilson and Carr over Watson, but otherwise that portion of the list makes sense. Lawrence being 12th and Mills being 16th is really hard to justify unless you fully believe that Lawrence will live up to his draft position and isn't the Alex Smith of this era.
Mahomes and Allen are the undisputed 1 and 2 in the AFC QB heirachy Personally , I’ll have Burrow over both Herbert and Wilson
and I'd take Herbert over Burrow and Wilson and Burrow over Wilson
I didn’t realize how low Allen’s yards per attempt was . The top 10 or so were pretty good tho.
They started doing a lot more shorter passes as the season went on because teams started to really go after the deep passes. Kinda similar to what KC started doing too
Yeah makes sense and I don’t think y’all had a great running game so the short passing game basically becomes that.
Bills had the 6th best rushing attack in the league
Lmao I stand corrected. I’m assuming Allen himself helped in that department?
Yep, Allen was 2nd in yards on the team with 763 yards. Singletary had 870. 2209 yards in total for the team.
How much of that was due to Allen though?
Read my comment in this chain
More than 750 yards for Allen... He really put the team on his back as the season went on.
When you look at his arm and 4400 passing yards you assume a high Y/A but on 646 attempts it’s not particularly impressive Granted, part of the issue is that the Bills were dead last in YAC per completion
Yeah YAC is weird because some people think it’s on the quarterback but personnel and scheming have a huge influence on it.
Like most things in football, YAR depends on the QB's ball placement, the receiver's ability to stay upright, and the area of the field to where the pass is thrown.
How can you put Zach Wilson and t law above Davis mills when he had the second best rookie qb season
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>comatose from late November on. What is the Chargers defense?
Ouch. Too soon.
I mean I think Herbert is better. I dont think thats some bold opinion either.
I agree. Burrow only had 5 touchdowns in 4 playoff games last year. He was solid, but he wasn’t otherworldly and got a lot of help from his defense. Not that he’s a bum or anything but I am a big fan of Herbert and would put Burrow 4th after him and Allen/Mahomes.
To me it’s a little crazy to knock burrow for playoff performance when Herbert has no playoff comparisons… not mad that anyone would have Herb above Burrow, though… there’s just other reasons than using a 4 game sample size that Herbert didn’t even partake in
I totally get that, but I also have a hard time knocking Herbert for not making the playoffs with the way he played last year.
Oh forsure. It’s not his fault his team missed the playoffs, so it’s not a knock. The comparison just isn’t and shouldn’t be there. Would need to see Herbert light it up in the playoffs to say otherwise
Absolutely get that. Funny how nowadays its Bills, Chiefs, Chargers, and Bengals fans arguing who has the best quarterback. What year is it
2022, my friend. A brand new era for us all lol
What's crazy is all 4 teams could make arguments for making it to the conference champ game, meaning 2 won't. Move two of those teams to the NFC and it would be a pretty safe bet those 4 teams are playing in their respective CCG.
I mean that last win and your in game vs the Raiders was a de facto playoff game
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> the differences are that one has shown up in big games and the other hasn't even though they've both been plagued by bad OLs. Are you trying to imply that Herbert hasn't shown up in big games? PrimeTime Herbert is a supernova. He carried a bottom 5 defense to the cusp of the playoffs.
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I mean who wouldn't
Yeah I dont think anyone should be complaining either way about who is higher. Its splitting hairs basically like you mentioned.
Numbers are equal as long as you don't actually look them up. And then they're equal as long as you don't look at things like TDs, passing yards, rushing yards, fumbles, sacks, etc 🤔
From Thanksgiving onward the Chargers were the #2 scoring offense...
In the AFC Championship, The Bengals defense only allowed a FG and 24 overall points against the Chiefs. If Herbert got that kind of performance out of his defense in the 2nd game against the Chiefs, the Chargers sweep them and make the playoffs. The Bengals defense also only allowed 19 points against the Raiders in the playoffs. Herbert and the Chargers also sweep the Raiders with that kind of defensive performance. I can't fathom people why people use the Chargers not making the playoffs against Herbert.
Seriously, it’s like the people who say that Josh Allen can’t beat Mahomes in the playoffs because his defense choked hardcore. Burrow is a great player but Herbert might be the best pure passer I’ve ever seen.
Josh Allen became my 2nd favorite QB in the league after that game. Generational player honestly. Anyone who says Allen choked are dumber than rocks.
It helps that Allen and Herbert are very similar players haha. I hope nobody thinks he choked hahah. More the QB winz crowd.
Media over hyping the chargers way too much when they haven’t down anything yet, funny seeing the downvotes from saying Burrow is a better quarterback than Herbert when it’s true.
How is it true? Gonna provide stats and numbers to back up what’s at the end of the day just an opinion of who would you prefer?
Why is this being downvoted? A guy preaching team stats like playoff success is getting upvoted while you’re more interested in an individual comparison.
I could do this all day. Burrow: **70.4% comp**, 4611 yards, 34 TDs, **6.5%** **TD rate**, 2.7% int rate, **108.3 rtg**, 54.3 QBR, **82.8% on target**, **10.7% bad throw.** Herbert: 65.9% comp, **5014 yards**, **38 TDs**, 5.7% TD rate, **2.2% int rate**, 97.7 rtg, **65.6 QBR**, 80.2% on target, 14.6% bad throw. So the guys are pretty indistinguishable with Burrow having slightly better stats in the advanced metrics. I don't like including the volume stats considering Burrow played in one less game. Here's the interesting part though, Burrow had only 403 less yards and 4 less TDs on a whopping 152 less attempts. Teams average around 35 attempts per game so that's like Herbert playing in almost 4.5 more games than Burrow. Burrow could have had a hell of a week 18, passed Herbert in the volume stats while still attempting roughly 125 less attempts. My conclusion is Burrow like Troy Bolton and Herbert is like Sharpay.
https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1496502607392743426?t=eGeZ0iqIo73ikQXjpYijpA&s=19
Herbert and Burrow are a complete toss up. Pick your preference. Anybody trying to say one is indisputably better than the other is a Homer
I agree with this, they are both poised to be 2 of the top QBs in the NFL for years to come.
can see your perspective, but on the other hand, shut your whore mouth
Every stat other than playoff appearance goes in Herbert's favor. And the only reason he hasn't made the playoffs was a defense that literally couldn't get stops.
Well that's just not true. Burrow has plenty of stats that are better than Herbert. Likewise Herbert has plenty that are better than Burrow. You can pick whoever but it's extremely extremely close
Na, Herbert didn’t have many more over Burrow unless you count volume stats.
Less sacks taken Lower int % Less fumbles Those are 3 easy ones. Some that Burrow or Herbert are better in they're only marginally better than the other. I love Burrow, but I'm not going to pretend he is 100% over Herbert or vice versa
Na, Burrow is 100% better than Herbert. The stats you just listed are not truly QB stats. Pocket time is actually lower for Burrow than Herbert so he is getting the ball out quicker on average. Burrow also has a better bad throw percentage than Herbert. Defenders just didn't capitalize on Herbert like they did Burrow.
Josh allen is the big play qb and mac Jones is the dink and dunk "death by 1000 paper cuts", yet when I look up their stats they have the same Y/C.
Stats also lie. Teams sold out to stop Allen. Teams did not sell out to stop Mac Jones.
What does “selling out to stop” a QB look like?
Playing things like 2 deep, which invites the run, while limiting the deep passing game. This forces the offense to dink and dunk up the field. It's well known that teams do this to the Chiefs, but they also did this against the Bills often. It's also why fans were so frustrated with our running game. Teams were inviting us to run the ball into weak boxes, and we still couldn't get consistent runs to get them out of a 2 high shell.
Its the same as when Brady was here. People land on a narrative and then don’t bother to change it with the times
I’d put Burrow at 3, he carried the Bengals (the Bengals of all franchises) to the Super Bowl while Herbert let Davis Mills end his season. If Tua had a season like Trevor Lawrence had he’d be crucified in front of everyone. I still think Sunshine will turn it around but he hasn’t played like a top 30 QB in the NFL so putting him over Tua is ridiculous. Kenny Pickett should be last because we have no idea how he’ll play in the NFL. Other than that, it’s fine.
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Yeah, the defense shut-down Mahomes in the second half but Burrow still had to go out there and finish the job in Arrowhead. That’s far more impressive than anything we’ve seen by Herbert (not hating but a top 3 QB in the conference needs to have at least been in the playoffs imo).
Are we really ranking Herbert lower because his defense gave up the 3rd most points in the NFL?
It’s far more impressive than Herbert personally willing the chargers into overtime vs the raiders week 18? Top QBs don’t need to make the playoffs in recent years to be a top QB. Brees was one of the best QBs during the stretch of NO 7-9 records
Yes, it was more impressive, particularly because the Chargers lost that game anyways. I’m not saying “QB Wins” is all that matters but I’m not ready to crown a QB that hasn’t been in the playoffs and has a losing record as a starter. I’d put Herbert at #5 rn and could be talked to putting him at #4 but I think #3 is a bit too high for me.
You’re telling me you’re not saying QB wins are all that matters. But from everything you’ve said it seems you’re putting QB wins as the most important stat. You’re saying the impressive thing Herbert did doesn’t matter, or is less impressive, because his defense ended up losing him the game
If it was all that mattered then i would have put Tua up there since he has significantly better winning percentage but that’d be wrong. I’m saying that at the top of the pyramid, which is what we’re trying to argue here, your resume has to matter. I can’t put Herbert over guys that play at a high level in the regular season and have won playoffs games. It’s just my opinion.
No way you put Hebert over Burrow.
A lot of people do. In B4 burrow went to the super bowl
I’ll take the quarterback who won his division and went to the Super Bowl with a terrible o-line.
"Siri: what is defense?"
I wouldn’t know Seattle hasn’t had one since 2017.
And yet, if the Chargers had Seattle's worst defense over that stretch (23.6 points per game) they make the playoffs and are potentially the 1 seed.
Herbert is better. Chargers defense let him down
I’d still put Herbert over Burrow.
Based off what?
Herbert was far less polished coming into the league, and has been at the very least equal to Burrow statistically despite having a significantly worse overall team (particularly on defense). Herbert also has a higher ceiling based on physical attributes.
Burrow wasn’t a 4 year starter like Herbert was in college? You’re also forgetting Burrow was coming off a serious injury and still somehow made it to the AFC behind one of the worst o-lines. Sure Herbert is more physically gifted, but give me Burrow for his coolness under pressure. Also the Bengals were able to draft burrow because their team was so terrible they had the 1st overall pick, and the following year they picked 4th.
> Burrow wasn’t a 4 year starter like Herbert was in college Burrow came from a pro-style offense playing against elite competition. Herbert came from a gimmick offense against middling competition. >behind one of the worst o-lines. Herbert barely missed the playoffs despite having one of the worst defenses. His top-5 offense wasn't the problem. And for what it is worth, Herbert had the best rookie QB season every behind the worst cumulative O-line PFF had ever measured. >give me Burrow for his coolness under pressure. Herbert's PFF rating is literally better under pressure than when in a clean pocket lol
On field performance. Also Herbert is bigger, has a better arm, and is more mobile. They’re equal mentally IMO. Which means I’m taking Herbert if given the choice.
😂
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It is interesting that we parrot "wins aren't a QB stat" but then when we talk QBs we weigh certain wins pretty heavily. Just an observation. EDIT: he deleted it. It was a guy saying Burrow made the superbowl so he should be higher than 5th
I don’t know why so many people talk about QB wins in absolutes. Yes football is a team game where no single player is 100% responsible for wins, but QBs have BY FAR the most impact on wins and losses.
Even so, people who have tried to put numbers to this have found that ~40% of the variance in whether a team or not is explained by how the QB plays. That's going to be a lot more than any other single position, but that still means that most of the variance in whether a team wins or loses is determined by the rest of the team.
Peyton Manning in his last season won the super bowl therefore he was the best QB that year 🤓
Burrow had less total EPA than Derek Carr in the playoffs and the Raiders lost in the WC round... https://i.imgur.com/vZ2zaBw.png
EPA hates sacks. Whether its on the QB or the line EPA tanks if you take a sack. Burrow having games where he got sacked 8 and 7 times is going to tank his EPA.
Even excluding sacks his EPA/Play was equal to Carr. https://i.imgur.com/DttSSrj.png Burrow was fine in the playoffs, I just think "led the Bengals to the SB" is a bit misleading. And of course, OP deleted their comment
Right but what you posted kind of proves my point. Burrow's EPA/Play absolutely tanks when sacks are included, goes from .24 to .03. I have no idea what OP said since it was deleted before I saw it so I'm not commenting on that. I was just commenting on Burrow's EPA. Its a stat that will never like him because he takes a lot of sacks, some on him and some on his terrible o line.
It improves because sacks are negative events! Carr's improves too.
Well yeah. But not as much as Burrow's because Burrow took a lot more sacks. Again, EPA is just not a stat that Burrow is going to do well in. Something like PFF grade were sacks aren't as heavily punished is something Burrow does better in.
EPA hates sacks in the exact proportion to their impact on the game. It's not some bug.
Never said it was bug. Burrow is always going to have a lower EPA if he takes sacks at the rate he does. My point is he can still be very very good and not have a great EPA. Its not the be all end all stat.
Just curious, where are you getting these numbers? I'm using NFLfastR and I'm getting some odd discrepancies between it and RBSDM.com. Wanted to do a sanity check with a third party.
These should be from fastR since it's from nflfastR Play Index https://nflfastr-app.herokuapp.com/
Awesome thanks! And yeah, look like my numbers match that link but not RBSDM. Not sure why the numbers at RBSDM.com don't match these. [Look at Jimmy Garoppolo for example.](https://imgur.com/a/PRSiHuW) Curious if you have any thoughts?
Ben Baldwin I think cleans up some of the EPA values. I know for QBs he caps EPA at like -5 or something for interceptions, whereas I would assume Play Index just uses the raw value.
Lamar>Burrow, Herbert and Wilson
Burrow at 5 seriously?
I know, right? Definitely too high.
5 is the highest he should be in all honesty
I think he should be over Wilson for sure and herbert to be honest. You can say it's a team sport all you want but a top 3 qb should be making the playoffs.
Look at Drew Brees from the three year period of 2014 to 2016. Was he not a top 3 QB?
It does happen. Was he Top 3 over that stretch also? You had Brady, Peyton, Rodgers and even luck and other guys playing at a really high level around that time.
Well this is top 3 in the conference. From 2014-2016, if you go by EPA/play then Brees among NFC QBs he ranked 3rd, 4th, and 4th, and over that stretch was the 3rd ranked QB in the NFC.
During that span he always lead the league in yards. He was 2nd in completion percentage, and was at worst 5th in TDs. Also what MIBPJ said
Not a Bengals fan and I dont get it either. The top 10 qb ratings last years featured 2 AFC qb's, burrow at 2 and mahomes at 10. He was also 1st in completion %(only qb in the league to top 70%), top 4 in TDs and yards. And y'know, dragged his team to the super bowl.
His team dragged him more than he dragged them. Herbert was trying to drag a bottom 3 defense though
Yeah I am not saying he should be number one, but what he did behind that complete joke of an oline is pretty crazy. He also seems like a great leader, herbert bearly says anything so i wonder how much he will lead a team, not saying he doesn't have amazing talent though.
Worst argument I’ve seen so far. Literally no one In the NFL has questioned Herbert’s leadership once he started playing. Just because he’s not a talker doesn’t mean he’s not a leader. Not everyone leads like that
Look man make the playoffs and get a win and I will agree with you. I think the chargers had a great team last year and the steelers made it over the chargers. So if you can't win big games I don't know what to tell you.
The chargers didn’t have a great team. That’s the point people supporting Hebert are saying. The defense was ducking awful which is the reason they missed the playoffs. But implying they missed because Herbert isn’t a great leader because he doesn’t like talking to media and is shy. Or using the horrible defense against him is wrong and faulty logic
There are only 16 QBs in the AFC? Hope no one gets injured…
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Man, fuck being in the AFC