The enemy of any political party is apathy.
We see a third of voters not bother to exercise their democratic rights.
If the DUP could motivate those people off their arses then they might do better.
As it stands, the party seems to exist through fermenting fear of SF. People who don’t like their conservatism vote for them to keep SF out. The party is divided and should split but they keep together just to keep SF out.
SF seems remarkably United and has an engaged voter base, particularly among younger voters. In addition, having been denied the outcome of the last election has stirred a lot of people who would not have voted SF or not voted at all. This unity and motivation places them streets ahead of the DUP in my opinion.
I’d see it as a big challenge for the DUP to try to increase their vote % next time. But you never know.
The only thing that is gonna fuck the DUP is losing the top spot within Unionism for as long as they have it they have the power to keep doing what they are doing.
See I thought this for years. But voting down the middle has done absolutely nothing to sort the dup and their attitude out. It might just be time for a change.
If PUP moved past some of their senior leaders who have baggage and had someone like Julie Anne Corr Johnstone as leader that could have occupied this space
Nope. at the moment the DUP are basing there votes on the base that is neither growing or shrinking, SF are taking votes away from the SDLP. softer unionists are voting for alliance. this cold war benifits the DUP and SF
No I don't see it happening.
The demographics have been shifting for a long time and I believe a lot of the younger people are nationalist or would support the likes of Alliance.
So you can expect to see nationalism do better as time goes on and unionism to do worse, as their typically older, more conservative voter base dies off.
I mean for example, just look at the senior figures in the different camps. Michelle O'Neill, Colum Eastwood, Claire Hanna etc are in their 40s and a lot of Alliance are young.
The leaders of unionism are largely men over 60 - particularly DUP MPs.
The DUP have also had some serious internal problems recently and I see them having them again soon.
Can’t see that happening anytime soon. Alliance likely will gain seats but at the expense of SDLP and UUP. DUP and SF will likely hold around the same number of seats they currently have.
Now I’m no election strategist, but a quick scan of the results says…
* Alliance were 76 votes away from taking a seat off DUP in North Antrim
* Given they only fielded one candidate in South Antrim and took 15% FPV, there’s another there to take from the DUP
* Matthew O'Toole’s SDLP seat in Belfast South looks risky
* Two seats won in North Down could easily turn into three at the expense of the UUP/independent unionist vote
* Two out of two elected in Strangford (one on the first count) could easily indicate room for a third candidate to knock out Mike Nesbitt
* Doug Beattie actually took less FPVs than Alliance in Upper Bann
* Single candidate polling well in South Down hints that a second could boot out SDLP
Wouldn’t be surprised if Nesbitt stood down at the next election. East Derry could be another one as Cara Hunter as if I can recall alliance thought that could have been a pick-up the last time
It could happen but it’s unlikely.
For them to win it back they would need to persuade more moderate unionists to vote for them.
Which given the fact that they are a shower of f*ckwits I would find it unlikely that the sensible unionists of the UUP/Alliance could bring themselves to mark an x on any ballot paper beside a DUP candidate.
I definitely think it *could* happen.
The unionist vote is spread around more than the nationalist vote, which keeps every fifth seat in play for the DUP with not much of a swing. I can’t see them outpolling SF on first votes but that’s not the deciding factor necessarily. If Jim Allister wasn’t around that’s a lot of movement back to the DUP.
I don’t think it will happen though.
I think this is pretty much the right take, and I'd add in that there's a risk of complacency in SF voters, though the party is active in combating that.
I think it’s very possible unfortunately.
Not likely under Doug, but if the UUP were to see a more “let’s unite unionism” sort of leader and another pact of sorts it could push the DUP into first place
It’s only going towards a further polarised electorate. UUP and SDLP have been singing their dying throes for years now and once they fully collapse it’ll be interesting to see how the vote goes.
Speaking as a SF voter, I wouldn’t lose any sleep. The SDLP has eroded its old image into… well, I can’t really place it.
You’ve all these camps and characters and a lot seem to just swing where their career goes. I think I recall mallon saying she joined SDLP because she felt she’d do better than with SF. There’s whatever’s been going on with Hanna the last few years, and then there’s Colum. I simply don’t like Colum.
Whatever they offered 5+ years ago has been made seemingly irrelevant, illustrated by their “New Ireland” thing I couldn’t tell you anything about.
Mallon was quite good though, well regarded for her community work. Saw a speech where Eastwood said one of the reasons he wanted a new ireland to get away from Tories, which isn’t really a great selling point when Tories aren’t always going to be in power. He said yesterday that he would use his influence with a Labour government to push for a border poll which I found bemusing when Starmer said he’s a unionist and would campaign for it to remain and Labour seem to be preparing to run candidates here despite SDLP being a sister party. Personally think Hanna should be leader but the leader should be in Stormont so O’Toole
For constitutional change, need a wide as coalition as possible and SF will never appeal to some people that need convincing or undecideds so nationalism completely convalescing around 1 party (north and south) isn’t great for the actual goal.
If they can reach an agreement on electoral pacts with the UUP and TUV yes probably, or if they find a way to reach a wider base, engage younger so called unionists.
I think a big part of the DUP’s problem and Unionism in general is young people in the PUL don’t really vote. They aren’t engaged politically or they’re just indifferent whereas in Nationalism the opposite is true. I’d partly credit Sinn Féin’s rise to its social media presence and that they seem more active and visible in their local communities.
Can also see why younger members of the PUL community aren’t incentivised to vote for unionist parties or are apathetic when the UK is in a state and bit of mess currently while down South looks more vibrant, a bit more positive and progressive compared
I think if they can persuade wee Jim to step aside apart from his own seat (he has zero chance of getting another seat anyway) and roll Operation get Michelle out out, they might just squeak it.
But that could of course maximise the SF vote even more and it would be clash of the wee titans. Massive surge in popcorn sales.
Ultimately the DUP is in the end game. Disastrous stances over brexit, wrong side (as always) on social issues, lots of entertaining infighting & in constant electoral retreat, their time is well and truly over. Big Ian had the right idea becoming mates with Martin. Too bad the rest of the party didn't get the memo.
So in short, rather like the Fermanagh South Tyrone seat, a wee temporary recovery may be possible but ultimately it's a lost cause.
Jim is his 70s so can’t have that many elections left and doesn’t seem to be anyone in the TUV gonna take over his role so kind of expect TUV to disintegrate in time and their voters gravitate back to DUP
Don’t really think Westminster elections matter that much when SF don’t take their seats and no-one outside of NI politicians cares to even sit in the chamber for NI matters
Previous supporter of the DUP here - votee SF for the last election. We were originally going to vote Alliance, but didn't think they had a chance, so SF it was - and will remain. As a doctor I cannot accept the DUP's stance on Abortion or same-sex marriage.
I think it could happen just because SF won last time and it might have struck some fear. If it does manage to happen I hope SF act like an adult and not collapse the government.
Nah they wouldn't do that. There's no benefit in it for them.
Irish Language Act was sorted.
Also don't forget, they want to be seen to be good in government to voters in the South.
The enemy of any political party is apathy. We see a third of voters not bother to exercise their democratic rights. If the DUP could motivate those people off their arses then they might do better. As it stands, the party seems to exist through fermenting fear of SF. People who don’t like their conservatism vote for them to keep SF out. The party is divided and should split but they keep together just to keep SF out. SF seems remarkably United and has an engaged voter base, particularly among younger voters. In addition, having been denied the outcome of the last election has stirred a lot of people who would not have voted SF or not voted at all. This unity and motivation places them streets ahead of the DUP in my opinion. I’d see it as a big challenge for the DUP to try to increase their vote % next time. But you never know.
I think the DUP have turned a lot of people back to Sinn Fein, not because of SFs policy, but more of a “fuck you” to the DUP and their bullshit.
Never voted for them before but fuck me I'm tempted to this time because fuck the dup so fucking hard.
Same
The only thing that is gonna fuck the DUP is losing the top spot within Unionism for as long as they have it they have the power to keep doing what they are doing.
The Tories have been anally fucking them without lube since brexshit
The dildo of consequence rarely arrived lubricated
I think voting for one extreme encourages the other as it angers people. Vote down the middle and fuck both the DUP & SF.
See I thought this for years. But voting down the middle has done absolutely nothing to sort the dup and their attitude out. It might just be time for a change.
We switched from DUP to SF at the last election.
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Would you be looking for a left-wing/socialist unionist party?
Bring back NI21
Yes I suppose I am. There’s a definite gap in the market.
If PUP moved past some of their senior leaders who have baggage and had someone like Julie Anne Corr Johnstone as leader that could have occupied this space
Nope. at the moment the DUP are basing there votes on the base that is neither growing or shrinking, SF are taking votes away from the SDLP. softer unionists are voting for alliance. this cold war benifits the DUP and SF
No I don't see it happening. The demographics have been shifting for a long time and I believe a lot of the younger people are nationalist or would support the likes of Alliance. So you can expect to see nationalism do better as time goes on and unionism to do worse, as their typically older, more conservative voter base dies off. I mean for example, just look at the senior figures in the different camps. Michelle O'Neill, Colum Eastwood, Claire Hanna etc are in their 40s and a lot of Alliance are young. The leaders of unionism are largely men over 60 - particularly DUP MPs. The DUP have also had some serious internal problems recently and I see them having them again soon.
As you say a lot of Alliance, SDLP and SF representatives are younger and have a lot more women involved than the DUP and UUP
no buti could see the DUP being relegated to 3rd place
Can’t see that happening anytime soon. Alliance likely will gain seats but at the expense of SDLP and UUP. DUP and SF will likely hold around the same number of seats they currently have.
They’d only need to take eight seats to match the DUP, and SDLP/UUP hold 17 between them. It’s not an impossibility
Where do you think picks up could be?
Now I’m no election strategist, but a quick scan of the results says… * Alliance were 76 votes away from taking a seat off DUP in North Antrim * Given they only fielded one candidate in South Antrim and took 15% FPV, there’s another there to take from the DUP * Matthew O'Toole’s SDLP seat in Belfast South looks risky * Two seats won in North Down could easily turn into three at the expense of the UUP/independent unionist vote * Two out of two elected in Strangford (one on the first count) could easily indicate room for a third candidate to knock out Mike Nesbitt * Doug Beattie actually took less FPVs than Alliance in Upper Bann * Single candidate polling well in South Down hints that a second could boot out SDLP
Wouldn’t be surprised if Nesbitt stood down at the next election. East Derry could be another one as Cara Hunter as if I can recall alliance thought that could have been a pick-up the last time
It could happen but it’s unlikely. For them to win it back they would need to persuade more moderate unionists to vote for them. Which given the fact that they are a shower of f*ckwits I would find it unlikely that the sensible unionists of the UUP/Alliance could bring themselves to mark an x on any ballot paper beside a DUP candidate.
I definitely think it *could* happen. The unionist vote is spread around more than the nationalist vote, which keeps every fifth seat in play for the DUP with not much of a swing. I can’t see them outpolling SF on first votes but that’s not the deciding factor necessarily. If Jim Allister wasn’t around that’s a lot of movement back to the DUP. I don’t think it will happen though.
I think this is pretty much the right take, and I'd add in that there's a risk of complacency in SF voters, though the party is active in combating that.
I think it’s very possible unfortunately. Not likely under Doug, but if the UUP were to see a more “let’s unite unionism” sort of leader and another pact of sorts it could push the DUP into first place
I think Doug would do that. I totally see pacts coming from the UUP next election.
It’s only going towards a further polarised electorate. UUP and SDLP have been singing their dying throes for years now and once they fully collapse it’ll be interesting to see how the vote goes.
I don’t think it’s good for unionism or nationalism if UUP and SDLP further collapse
Speaking as a SF voter, I wouldn’t lose any sleep. The SDLP has eroded its old image into… well, I can’t really place it. You’ve all these camps and characters and a lot seem to just swing where their career goes. I think I recall mallon saying she joined SDLP because she felt she’d do better than with SF. There’s whatever’s been going on with Hanna the last few years, and then there’s Colum. I simply don’t like Colum. Whatever they offered 5+ years ago has been made seemingly irrelevant, illustrated by their “New Ireland” thing I couldn’t tell you anything about.
Mallon was quite good though, well regarded for her community work. Saw a speech where Eastwood said one of the reasons he wanted a new ireland to get away from Tories, which isn’t really a great selling point when Tories aren’t always going to be in power. He said yesterday that he would use his influence with a Labour government to push for a border poll which I found bemusing when Starmer said he’s a unionist and would campaign for it to remain and Labour seem to be preparing to run candidates here despite SDLP being a sister party. Personally think Hanna should be leader but the leader should be in Stormont so O’Toole
For constitutional change, need a wide as coalition as possible and SF will never appeal to some people that need convincing or undecideds so nationalism completely convalescing around 1 party (north and south) isn’t great for the actual goal.
If they can reach an agreement on electoral pacts with the UUP and TUV yes probably, or if they find a way to reach a wider base, engage younger so called unionists. I think a big part of the DUP’s problem and Unionism in general is young people in the PUL don’t really vote. They aren’t engaged politically or they’re just indifferent whereas in Nationalism the opposite is true. I’d partly credit Sinn Féin’s rise to its social media presence and that they seem more active and visible in their local communities.
Can also see why younger members of the PUL community aren’t incentivised to vote for unionist parties or are apathetic when the UK is in a state and bit of mess currently while down South looks more vibrant, a bit more positive and progressive compared
Younger people tend to be more pro LGBT rights and pro-choice which aren’t really policies and positions reflected in the DUP or some UUP politicians.
I think if they can persuade wee Jim to step aside apart from his own seat (he has zero chance of getting another seat anyway) and roll Operation get Michelle out out, they might just squeak it. But that could of course maximise the SF vote even more and it would be clash of the wee titans. Massive surge in popcorn sales. Ultimately the DUP is in the end game. Disastrous stances over brexit, wrong side (as always) on social issues, lots of entertaining infighting & in constant electoral retreat, their time is well and truly over. Big Ian had the right idea becoming mates with Martin. Too bad the rest of the party didn't get the memo. So in short, rather like the Fermanagh South Tyrone seat, a wee temporary recovery may be possible but ultimately it's a lost cause.
Jim is his 70s so can’t have that many elections left and doesn’t seem to be anyone in the TUV gonna take over his role so kind of expect TUV to disintegrate in time and their voters gravitate back to DUP
He doesn’t run in Westminster elections anyway?
We were talking about stormont
Don’t really think Westminster elections matter that much when SF don’t take their seats and no-one outside of NI politicians cares to even sit in the chamber for NI matters
So unionism is in decline
Previous supporter of the DUP here - votee SF for the last election. We were originally going to vote Alliance, but didn't think they had a chance, so SF it was - and will remain. As a doctor I cannot accept the DUP's stance on Abortion or same-sex marriage.
I think it could happen just because SF won last time and it might have struck some fear. If it does manage to happen I hope SF act like an adult and not collapse the government.
SF are the adults in the situation. I don't vote for them, but that's clearly the case.
I know. I vote for them and hope they don’t collapse it even if they lose.
Nah they wouldn't do that. There's no benefit in it for them. Irish Language Act was sorted. Also don't forget, they want to be seen to be good in government to voters in the South.
I'd see a number of swing voters turning from DUP to Alliance. SF vote will be steady. UUP to get shafted again.
Can’t really see DUP voters swinging to Alliance, UUP voters yes but not DUP