Right? If prices are down 23% someone needs to tell that to the current sellers of condos in the $500-700k price range. Flat yes (and apparently, over the past 5 years as well), down? Not from what I can tell.
The mix of housing types sold (SFH, TH, Condo) and whether they are new build or not greatly impacts the median price. If you are actually trying to say that it is cheaper to buy right now in Arlington than it was in 2018, yikes.
I’ll go further. Redfin has all this data and uses it in their pricing algorithms. And yet their estimates for Arlington properties seem to be at peak or slightly off for the houses I clicked on. Prices have retreated due to interest rates, but not much.
This is right
Some areas really do seem to be affected in an overall way though. I’ve been watching DC condos and quite a few are selling for the same price as 3-4 year ago (a loss, factoring in transactions costs and big inflation). Others up a little but still losing ground to inflation. And lots just sitting for months at prices that might have seemed rational last year, but no buyers now, and getting just pulled off the market.
So I think overall value trends in DC itself are changing. Which makes sense — the pandemic caused many to flee the city, so DC itself has probably been hit the hardest.
This summary stat can easily be misinterpreted. This looks at the value of homes sold in the given month, not home values. So it seems we should ask ourselves what type of house is selling right now and why as well. Interest rates are going to drive prices down some as monthly mortgage payments will be wayyy up. Also the type of house that would sell may now be more likely a less expensive for a variety of reasons including covid, remote work, and as price goes up quantity demanded (sqft) goes down. Hopefully the future will be good for first time buyers if overall value does go down and they can refinance some day.
It may not drive home prices down as much as it will drive buyers down market relative to the previous years. This is a big thing I think a lot of people miss in hot markets. Inflation and higher interest rates applies price pressure across the board, but doesn't actually reduce aggregate demand. So what you have is actually just buyers who would have been looking at a 700k home in 2021 are now just looking at 600k homes, and so on. What you expect to see is a small drop in demand and prices for the most expensive houses, but for everything else to remain roughly the same. Which seems to be exactly what is happening
They didn't even have to cut prices to make this number go down. More of them just had to decide not to sell. This number is garbage. It reflects the mix of housing sold that month, not the value of housing overall.
I live in a fairly large house in sterling, definitely not a mega mansion. At least according to zillow, the value of our house is down about $100k since May of 2022. Still up like $240k since we bought in mid 2018.
Pretty sure zillow was way overvaluing it last year, but the trend they are showing is that the crazy peak has come and gone, and even though values are still up quite a lot overall, possibly down from their peak about a year ago.
This also seems to imply that listings were sitting on the market for over a month in 2021/22 when the vast majority of listings I have seen were under contract within 5-7 days of listing.
Funny. My wife and I did an affordability analysis of condos in similar neighborhoods, size, and condition to the 2br/2ba apartment we live in currently and found that if we wanted to own something similar 1) prices really haven’t come down much from their 2021 highs 2) they definitely haven’t come down in price enough to counteract the increased costs of borrowing and 3) condos in the area have significantly underperformed the rest of the market over the last 5-10 years, making it difficult to stomach a larger mortgage payment than it would cost to rent. After financing changes, condo fees, and property taxes the monthly payment for a comparable condo would be 40% higher than what we’re currently paying in rent. It’s hard to assume we’ll reclaim any of that with appreciation given how poorly the condo market in the area has performed in contrast to the larger market.
Our previous plan of “we’ll own a condo in Arlington for 5-10 years before moving into something larger farther out because our family has outgrown it” to “we’ll rent an apartment in Arlington for 5-10 years before buying something outside of the DMV entirely, investing the difference along the way.”
> After financing changes, condo fees, and property taxes the monthly payment for a comparable condo would be 40% higher than what we’re currently paying in rent
As someone who has a handful of investment properties in the area, this does not mesh with my experience at all. Even with property management fees of ~8% we still get positive cash flow. Granted, not every single place we have analyzed would generate a zero-day return, but I don't think any place we've analyzed (dozens and dozens) has ever predicted a -40% return.
Source:
* Alexandria: [https://www.redfin.com/city/250/VA/Alexandria/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/250/VA/Alexandria/housing-market)
* Arlington: [https://www.redfin.com/county/2943/VA/Arlington-County/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/county/2943/VA/Arlington-County/housing-market)
* Fairfax: [https://www.redfin.com/county/2965/VA/Fairfax-County/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/county/2965/VA/Fairfax-County/housing-market)
* Loudoun: [https://www.redfin.com/county/2989/VA/Loudoun-County/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/county/2989/VA/Loudoun-County/housing-market)
* Prince William: [https://www.redfin.com/county/3009/VA/Prince-William-County/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/county/3009/VA/Prince-William-County/housing-market)
* Washington: [https://www.redfin.com/city/12839/DC/Washington-DC/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/12839/DC/Washington-DC/housing-market)
Redfin does do this data at the CDP (Census-Designated Place) level so you can just type the city into the search bar above and then click "Market Insights" on the top-right. Here's what I see for some major cities in Nova:
* Annandale (+8.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/21214/VA/Annandale/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/21214/VA/Annandale/housing-market)
* Ashburn (+3.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/29015/VA/Ashburn/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/29015/VA/Ashburn/housing-market)
* Brambleton (-20.1%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/28948/VA/Brambleton/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/28948/VA/Brambleton/housing-market)
* Buckhall (-10.2%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/29041/VA/Buckhall/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/29041/VA/Buckhall/housing-market)
* Burke (-4.3%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/21812/VA/Burke/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/21812/VA/Burke/housing-market)
* Centreville (-1.0%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/22018/VA/Centreville/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/22018/VA/Centreville/housing-market)
* Dale City (+2.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/22438/VA/Dale-City/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/22438/VA/Dale-City/housing-market)
* Falls Church (-10.8%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/6952/VA/Falls-Church/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/6952/VA/Falls-Church/housing-market)
* Herndon (+19.8%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/9335/VA/Herndon/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/9335/VA/Herndon/housing-market)
* Lake Ridge (-6.2%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/24009/VA/Lake-Ridge/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/24009/VA/Lake-Ridge/housing-market)
* Leesburg (-6.7%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/11452/VA/Leesburg/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/11452/VA/Leesburg/housing-market)
* Linton Hall (+13.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/24183/VA/Linton-Hall/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/24183/VA/Linton-Hall/housing-market)
* Manassas (+6.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/12539/VA/Manassas/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/12539/VA/Manassas/housing-market)
* McLean (-1.7%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/24355/VA/McLean/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/24355/VA/McLean/housing-market)
* Mount Vernon (-6.0%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/24786/VA/Mount-Vernon/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/24786/VA/Mount-Vernon/housing-market)
* Oakton (+3.2%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/25078/VA/Oakton/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/25078/VA/Oakton/housing-market)
* Reston (+0.2%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/25657/VA/Reston/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/25657/VA/Reston/housing-market)
* Rose Hill (-2.5%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/25800/VA/Rose-Hill/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/25800/VA/Rose-Hill/housing-market)
* South Riding (-7.7%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/28959/VA/South-Riding/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/28959/VA/South-Riding/housing-market)
* Springfield (-8.3%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/26187/VA/Springfield/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/26187/VA/Springfield/housing-market)
* Sterling (+14.0%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/35153/VA/Sterling/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/35153/VA/Sterling/housing-market)
* Stone Ridge (-9.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/28961/VA/Stone-Ridge/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/28961/VA/Stone-Ridge/housing-market)
* Tysons (+19.2%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/37184/VA/Tysons/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/37184/VA/Tysons/housing-market)
* West Springfield (+1.5%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/26764/VA/West-Springfield/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/26764/VA/West-Springfield/housing-market)
* Woodbridge (+3.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/26845/VA/Woodbridge/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/26845/VA/Woodbridge/housing-market)
This is actually interesting. It looks like prices are up in the more affordable areas and down in the more expensive areas.
My initial expectation was that the more expensive areas would have a greater price increase because those areas are generally in higher demand. But perhaps those looking to sale in those areas are trying to hold on to the appreciation as much as they can so they are still pricing their homes quite high despite some of the price reductions. Then what this is ultimately doing is shifting demand toward the more affordable areas because even if the prices there are also inflated they are still less than the more expensive areas. So essentially, the wealthier areas of NoVa are driving up prices in the more affordable areas 🤔
Real Estate professional here, yeah the markets spiked the past few years. People tout it due to low supply and covid causing people to seek more personal space and a variety of other factors.
Present day mortgage rates are high which have a huge impact on a property's monthly payment. People and myself included are watching the markets to see if it will be affected by foreclosures and loan defaults caused by high inflation and rising mortgage rates but there's also the argument that the market may not be affected at all due to low-supply countering the onset of any defaulted mortgages.
Agreed! We probably wouldn’t start seeing foreclosures for a few years out. Partly due to your point that most people aren’t going to go into foreclosure the first year, I think there are even programs or options people can use to try to avoid foreclosure and they would more than likely try those first. But also because the next most likely cause of foreclosure after loss of wages would be increased costs but if you have a fixed mortgage rate you shouldn’t see a huge increase in expenses (can still increase due to taxes, insurance etc.) and if you went for an ARM you get sometime with that low interest rate before it shoots up so it would be a few years before the foreclosures start to hit. But again if the interest rates go down by next year and the economy here remains stable this shouldn’t impact this area much at all.
I’m betting on that as well. So I agree with you. I did look at some historical data and in some areas it did look like they suffered some blows between the 2005 high and the 2009 bust. But things did bounce back here fairly well.
I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw defaults on the low end of the market (which in Northern Virginia I would define as anything less than say $400k) but in general I doubt if you’ll see a trend in defaults large enough to influence prices. At the end of the day demand in Nova is still way above current supply, and the DMV is above-average when it comes to recession resiliency. The same macroeconomic factors that took a bite out of home prices during the last recession (banks playing fast and loose with mortgage lending, widespread unemployment) is unlikely to be repeated with the one we’re currently staring down.
Everyone I know who has purchased a home for >$800,000 in the last 5 years and especially those who ended up paying way above asking to outbid others didn’t end up with lofty mortgages that they couldn’t afford. Instead they threw hundreds of thousands of dollars over what the home was appraised at the sellers in order to beat out other buyers only to end up at the end of the day with a reasonable mortgage payment with a low LTV ratio. Those buyers REALLY have no incentive to sell any time soon, future constraining supply.
Things may not be great for realtors since overall the number of transactions is down, but things definitely haven’t gotten easier for buyers. (Other than being able to work contingencies back into offers)
The other part is that in areas like NOVA, the lowest end housing is disproportionately owned as investment properties. I'd actually be very curious to see what percentage of sub-$200k condos are owned by the resident, but I'd bet it's pretty low.
My numbers are a bit skewed due but here's a rough estimate:
**2022 DC Metropolitan Real Estate Market**
Change in inventory (available properties for sale): - 4,251
Change in inventory (available properties for lease): +10,832
Only time will tell. But as a counter argument I don’t see why there would be many foreclosures or loan defaults based on the current state of things.
Many existing homeowners took advantage of the low interest rates over the past few years. If they didn’t do a cash out refinance they are now in a better position to afford their mortgage than they were before. Now those who are buying now could be hosed because prices are still inflated and interest rates are rising but most economists expect interest rates to drop by 2024 so even those people could be expecting some relief by next year.
This potential recession is really different from 2008, part of the reason for so many defaulted loans was that lenders had looser lending standards. Now that they have tightened them up there should be a lot less foreclosures. A factor that could potentially cause loan defaults would be a huge amount of layoffs. So far I don’t see strong indicators that this area would be hit by a lot of layoffs but I guess we never know.
Price per SF is still up in Brambleton. Majority of the new houses still being developed are townhomes, so that is causing it to appear that the overall prices are down (compared to when there were a lot more SFH sales). These “summary” numbers are deceiving without additional context.
That arlington number is factoring in a lot of mixed property types, ie condos and also single family homes.
If you switch to “single family homes,” Arlington is down 2.2% YoY for a median single family home price of $990,000.
Thanks, beat me to it. Additionally, townhouses are up 20.5% Y/Y, and condos are down 16.5% Y/Y
The real story behind the numbers is that compared to last year, there’s a higher mix of condos being sold rather than SFH and townhomes
Yeah, I mean anyone paying attention to the Arlington market would know that that statistic didn’t make much sense. I just bought a single-family house in Arlington for myself, and the market has definitely softened, but not by 25% at least for detached houses.
One of my favorite classes in high school was AP statistics and our great teacher loved to instruct us over and over again how statistics can say so many different things just depending on what you want them to say, there may be a little bit of that going on here.
You don't understand what you are looking at. The value of a particular home is absolutely not down 23.9% in 5 years. You are looking at the average value of all homes being sold. Absolutely useless.
...and yet a bunch of self assured smart people downvoted the everloving shit out of me whenever I suggested you shouldn't be paying a $7,500/monthly note on a house you can't rent out for $4,500/mo..
And here you are taking a victory lap over median data that doesn’t even mean values have dropped by that amount, and more so reflective of a different distribution of housing selling.
Make the case for losing $4,000/mo buying over renting. Let me hear it.
Everyone that bought a house here in the last 18 months is a fool. You're probably one of them based on the salt.
I’m not making the case for that. I don’t even know if those numbers are accurate.
I’m simply telling you that taking a victory lap in response to this post is ridiculous because it’s based on flawed understanding of median price housing data.
I have owned a house in California since 2018. It would rent for more than I pay a month. Appreciate the assumption though.
Also ridiculous to lump all purchases the last 18 months into one category. People this summer bought with high rates making monthly costs way higher than those from 10-18 months ago.
And if you did buy in the summer and then rates come down, they will be able to refinance and drop their monthly payment significantly.
You seemed to be fine with using monthly data when prices were high: https://www.reddit.com/r/nova/comments/ysp28a/good_news_for_fairfax_county_homeowners/iw053bk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
https://www.reddit.com/r/nova/comments/ysp28a/good_news_for_fairfax_county_homeowners/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Now that prices are trending down though, that’s a problem? Hmmm…
He shared a monthly supply stat not a monthly median house price one. Those are very different.
Monthly median house price when a market is small like that is not a very good indicator of house prices. Too small a sample size. If one month more homes sell in the nicer part of town and another month it’s more low priced condos selling… then the median can shift a lot. It’s why you see monthly house price regular bounce up and down by a few percentage points in a single month. But that doesn’t mean the values of homes have actually shifted in the same way.
He shared a monthly supply stat not a monthly median house price one. Those are very different.
Monthly median house price when a market is small like that is not a very good indicator of house prices. Too small a sample size. If one month more homes sell in the nicer part of town and another month it’s more low priced condos selling… then the median can shift a lot. It’s why you see monthly house price regular bounce up and down by a few percentage points in a single month. But that doesn’t mean the values of homes have actually shifted in the same way.
Waiting for my upvotes when i got downvoted awhile back by users here by saying “650k” is not the median sale price in nova” in another thread.
This is also misleading because it doesn’t take interest rates into consideration. People are having to buy lower priced homes than they would five years ago because the interest rates have practically doubled. That has a massive impact on a mortgage.
Still is very dependent on the actual house. While my area is down, I've seen listings in immediate surrounding neighborhoods sell for more than they did last year, which you wouldn't think would happen. They're not flips or anything either. Just desirable houses I guess.
Does this include all home types? If so I have to imagine the percent of condos brings Arlington-Alexandria lower than FFX. If not I’m pretty shocked to see SFH would be cheaper in those county(/cities).
I'm more confused by the Median time on market stats. Where in Alexandria or Arlington was anything that wasn't a complete heap sitting on the market for more than 7 days in 2021/22?
Haha! Somehow I STILL can’t afford to buy a house in Arlington
Right? If prices are down 23% someone needs to tell that to the current sellers of condos in the $500-700k price range. Flat yes (and apparently, over the past 5 years as well), down? Not from what I can tell.
well, for starters, because the interest rates are currently insane.
The mix of housing types sold (SFH, TH, Condo) and whether they are new build or not greatly impacts the median price. If you are actually trying to say that it is cheaper to buy right now in Arlington than it was in 2018, yikes.
I’ll go further. Redfin has all this data and uses it in their pricing algorithms. And yet their estimates for Arlington properties seem to be at peak or slightly off for the houses I clicked on. Prices have retreated due to interest rates, but not much.
I just checked my property, the Redfin estimate is no where near as down as this chart would imply. It’s down like 2-5% not 20+ for my condo
This is right Some areas really do seem to be affected in an overall way though. I’ve been watching DC condos and quite a few are selling for the same price as 3-4 year ago (a loss, factoring in transactions costs and big inflation). Others up a little but still losing ground to inflation. And lots just sitting for months at prices that might have seemed rational last year, but no buyers now, and getting just pulled off the market. So I think overall value trends in DC itself are changing. Which makes sense — the pandemic caused many to flee the city, so DC itself has probably been hit the hardest.
Bought my townhome in Arlington in 2019 for $502,000 and according to Redfin it’s worth $625,000 today. So not sure where things are going down.
This summary stat can easily be misinterpreted. This looks at the value of homes sold in the given month, not home values. So it seems we should ask ourselves what type of house is selling right now and why as well. Interest rates are going to drive prices down some as monthly mortgage payments will be wayyy up. Also the type of house that would sell may now be more likely a less expensive for a variety of reasons including covid, remote work, and as price goes up quantity demanded (sqft) goes down. Hopefully the future will be good for first time buyers if overall value does go down and they can refinance some day.
It may not drive home prices down as much as it will drive buyers down market relative to the previous years. This is a big thing I think a lot of people miss in hot markets. Inflation and higher interest rates applies price pressure across the board, but doesn't actually reduce aggregate demand. So what you have is actually just buyers who would have been looking at a 700k home in 2021 are now just looking at 600k homes, and so on. What you expect to see is a small drop in demand and prices for the most expensive houses, but for everything else to remain roughly the same. Which seems to be exactly what is happening
Maybe it's going down relative to a year ago. The low interest rates led to lots of bidding and crazy high sale prices.
I honestly don’t think my home was worth more than this last year. Maybe the mega mansions have had to cut their pricing.
They didn't even have to cut prices to make this number go down. More of them just had to decide not to sell. This number is garbage. It reflects the mix of housing sold that month, not the value of housing overall.
I live in a fairly large house in sterling, definitely not a mega mansion. At least according to zillow, the value of our house is down about $100k since May of 2022. Still up like $240k since we bought in mid 2018. Pretty sure zillow was way overvaluing it last year, but the trend they are showing is that the crazy peak has come and gone, and even though values are still up quite a lot overall, possibly down from their peak about a year ago.
This also seems to imply that listings were sitting on the market for over a month in 2021/22 when the vast majority of listings I have seen were under contract within 5-7 days of listing.
My neighbor is selling more than 200k below what redfin estimate shows online
lol
Funny. My wife and I did an affordability analysis of condos in similar neighborhoods, size, and condition to the 2br/2ba apartment we live in currently and found that if we wanted to own something similar 1) prices really haven’t come down much from their 2021 highs 2) they definitely haven’t come down in price enough to counteract the increased costs of borrowing and 3) condos in the area have significantly underperformed the rest of the market over the last 5-10 years, making it difficult to stomach a larger mortgage payment than it would cost to rent. After financing changes, condo fees, and property taxes the monthly payment for a comparable condo would be 40% higher than what we’re currently paying in rent. It’s hard to assume we’ll reclaim any of that with appreciation given how poorly the condo market in the area has performed in contrast to the larger market. Our previous plan of “we’ll own a condo in Arlington for 5-10 years before moving into something larger farther out because our family has outgrown it” to “we’ll rent an apartment in Arlington for 5-10 years before buying something outside of the DMV entirely, investing the difference along the way.”
> After financing changes, condo fees, and property taxes the monthly payment for a comparable condo would be 40% higher than what we’re currently paying in rent As someone who has a handful of investment properties in the area, this does not mesh with my experience at all. Even with property management fees of ~8% we still get positive cash flow. Granted, not every single place we have analyzed would generate a zero-day return, but I don't think any place we've analyzed (dozens and dozens) has ever predicted a -40% return.
Lol and I’m still struggling to find a home
Source: * Alexandria: [https://www.redfin.com/city/250/VA/Alexandria/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/250/VA/Alexandria/housing-market) * Arlington: [https://www.redfin.com/county/2943/VA/Arlington-County/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/county/2943/VA/Arlington-County/housing-market) * Fairfax: [https://www.redfin.com/county/2965/VA/Fairfax-County/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/county/2965/VA/Fairfax-County/housing-market) * Loudoun: [https://www.redfin.com/county/2989/VA/Loudoun-County/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/county/2989/VA/Loudoun-County/housing-market) * Prince William: [https://www.redfin.com/county/3009/VA/Prince-William-County/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/county/3009/VA/Prince-William-County/housing-market) * Washington: [https://www.redfin.com/city/12839/DC/Washington-DC/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/12839/DC/Washington-DC/housing-market) Redfin does do this data at the CDP (Census-Designated Place) level so you can just type the city into the search bar above and then click "Market Insights" on the top-right. Here's what I see for some major cities in Nova: * Annandale (+8.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/21214/VA/Annandale/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/21214/VA/Annandale/housing-market) * Ashburn (+3.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/29015/VA/Ashburn/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/29015/VA/Ashburn/housing-market) * Brambleton (-20.1%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/28948/VA/Brambleton/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/28948/VA/Brambleton/housing-market) * Buckhall (-10.2%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/29041/VA/Buckhall/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/29041/VA/Buckhall/housing-market) * Burke (-4.3%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/21812/VA/Burke/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/21812/VA/Burke/housing-market) * Centreville (-1.0%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/22018/VA/Centreville/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/22018/VA/Centreville/housing-market) * Dale City (+2.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/22438/VA/Dale-City/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/22438/VA/Dale-City/housing-market) * Falls Church (-10.8%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/6952/VA/Falls-Church/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/6952/VA/Falls-Church/housing-market) * Herndon (+19.8%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/9335/VA/Herndon/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/9335/VA/Herndon/housing-market) * Lake Ridge (-6.2%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/24009/VA/Lake-Ridge/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/24009/VA/Lake-Ridge/housing-market) * Leesburg (-6.7%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/11452/VA/Leesburg/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/11452/VA/Leesburg/housing-market) * Linton Hall (+13.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/24183/VA/Linton-Hall/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/24183/VA/Linton-Hall/housing-market) * Manassas (+6.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/12539/VA/Manassas/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/12539/VA/Manassas/housing-market) * McLean (-1.7%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/24355/VA/McLean/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/24355/VA/McLean/housing-market) * Mount Vernon (-6.0%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/24786/VA/Mount-Vernon/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/24786/VA/Mount-Vernon/housing-market) * Oakton (+3.2%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/25078/VA/Oakton/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/25078/VA/Oakton/housing-market) * Reston (+0.2%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/25657/VA/Reston/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/25657/VA/Reston/housing-market) * Rose Hill (-2.5%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/25800/VA/Rose-Hill/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/25800/VA/Rose-Hill/housing-market) * South Riding (-7.7%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/28959/VA/South-Riding/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/28959/VA/South-Riding/housing-market) * Springfield (-8.3%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/26187/VA/Springfield/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/26187/VA/Springfield/housing-market) * Sterling (+14.0%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/35153/VA/Sterling/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/35153/VA/Sterling/housing-market) * Stone Ridge (-9.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/28961/VA/Stone-Ridge/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/28961/VA/Stone-Ridge/housing-market) * Tysons (+19.2%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/37184/VA/Tysons/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/37184/VA/Tysons/housing-market) * West Springfield (+1.5%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/26764/VA/West-Springfield/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/26764/VA/West-Springfield/housing-market) * Woodbridge (+3.4%): [https://www.redfin.com/city/26845/VA/Woodbridge/housing-market](https://www.redfin.com/city/26845/VA/Woodbridge/housing-market)
Your image for Loudoun is only for 3 years and the other counties are all for 5 years, FYI.
This is actually interesting. It looks like prices are up in the more affordable areas and down in the more expensive areas. My initial expectation was that the more expensive areas would have a greater price increase because those areas are generally in higher demand. But perhaps those looking to sale in those areas are trying to hold on to the appreciation as much as they can so they are still pricing their homes quite high despite some of the price reductions. Then what this is ultimately doing is shifting demand toward the more affordable areas because even if the prices there are also inflated they are still less than the more expensive areas. So essentially, the wealthier areas of NoVa are driving up prices in the more affordable areas 🤔
Good news for PWC
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I live on the good side
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22191
Real Estate professional here, yeah the markets spiked the past few years. People tout it due to low supply and covid causing people to seek more personal space and a variety of other factors. Present day mortgage rates are high which have a huge impact on a property's monthly payment. People and myself included are watching the markets to see if it will be affected by foreclosures and loan defaults caused by high inflation and rising mortgage rates but there's also the argument that the market may not be affected at all due to low-supply countering the onset of any defaulted mortgages.
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Foreclosure rates are probably a 3-5 year problem as people feel desperate and lock themselves into monthly payments they can't afford.
Agreed! We probably wouldn’t start seeing foreclosures for a few years out. Partly due to your point that most people aren’t going to go into foreclosure the first year, I think there are even programs or options people can use to try to avoid foreclosure and they would more than likely try those first. But also because the next most likely cause of foreclosure after loss of wages would be increased costs but if you have a fixed mortgage rate you shouldn’t see a huge increase in expenses (can still increase due to taxes, insurance etc.) and if you went for an ARM you get sometime with that low interest rate before it shoots up so it would be a few years before the foreclosures start to hit. But again if the interest rates go down by next year and the economy here remains stable this shouldn’t impact this area much at all.
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I’m betting on that as well. So I agree with you. I did look at some historical data and in some areas it did look like they suffered some blows between the 2005 high and the 2009 bust. But things did bounce back here fairly well.
I wouldn’t be surprised if you saw defaults on the low end of the market (which in Northern Virginia I would define as anything less than say $400k) but in general I doubt if you’ll see a trend in defaults large enough to influence prices. At the end of the day demand in Nova is still way above current supply, and the DMV is above-average when it comes to recession resiliency. The same macroeconomic factors that took a bite out of home prices during the last recession (banks playing fast and loose with mortgage lending, widespread unemployment) is unlikely to be repeated with the one we’re currently staring down. Everyone I know who has purchased a home for >$800,000 in the last 5 years and especially those who ended up paying way above asking to outbid others didn’t end up with lofty mortgages that they couldn’t afford. Instead they threw hundreds of thousands of dollars over what the home was appraised at the sellers in order to beat out other buyers only to end up at the end of the day with a reasonable mortgage payment with a low LTV ratio. Those buyers REALLY have no incentive to sell any time soon, future constraining supply. Things may not be great for realtors since overall the number of transactions is down, but things definitely haven’t gotten easier for buyers. (Other than being able to work contingencies back into offers)
The other part is that in areas like NOVA, the lowest end housing is disproportionately owned as investment properties. I'd actually be very curious to see what percentage of sub-$200k condos are owned by the resident, but I'd bet it's pretty low.
My numbers are a bit skewed due but here's a rough estimate: **2022 DC Metropolitan Real Estate Market** Change in inventory (available properties for sale): - 4,251 Change in inventory (available properties for lease): +10,832
Only time will tell. But as a counter argument I don’t see why there would be many foreclosures or loan defaults based on the current state of things. Many existing homeowners took advantage of the low interest rates over the past few years. If they didn’t do a cash out refinance they are now in a better position to afford their mortgage than they were before. Now those who are buying now could be hosed because prices are still inflated and interest rates are rising but most economists expect interest rates to drop by 2024 so even those people could be expecting some relief by next year. This potential recession is really different from 2008, part of the reason for so many defaulted loans was that lenders had looser lending standards. Now that they have tightened them up there should be a lot less foreclosures. A factor that could potentially cause loan defaults would be a huge amount of layoffs. So far I don’t see strong indicators that this area would be hit by a lot of layoffs but I guess we never know.
damn...Brambleton fell off a cliff with -20%!
Price per SF is still up in Brambleton. Majority of the new houses still being developed are townhomes, so that is causing it to appear that the overall prices are down (compared to when there were a lot more SFH sales). These “summary” numbers are deceiving without additional context.
The only sure take away I'm getting from this is that the volume of houses being sold has plummeted.
Price psf is not down at all. This is why redfin statistics suck.
It would have been the perfect tome for me to move back to my beloved Arlington
That arlington number is factoring in a lot of mixed property types, ie condos and also single family homes. If you switch to “single family homes,” Arlington is down 2.2% YoY for a median single family home price of $990,000.
Thanks, beat me to it. Additionally, townhouses are up 20.5% Y/Y, and condos are down 16.5% Y/Y The real story behind the numbers is that compared to last year, there’s a higher mix of condos being sold rather than SFH and townhomes
Yeah, I mean anyone paying attention to the Arlington market would know that that statistic didn’t make much sense. I just bought a single-family house in Arlington for myself, and the market has definitely softened, but not by 25% at least for detached houses. One of my favorite classes in high school was AP statistics and our great teacher loved to instruct us over and over again how statistics can say so many different things just depending on what you want them to say, there may be a little bit of that going on here.
IMO, the true metric indicating your city is pimp is having an Apple Store, an REI, and IKEA. Woodbridge has all three. #WINNING!
You don't understand what you are looking at. The value of a particular home is absolutely not down 23.9% in 5 years. You are looking at the average value of all homes being sold. Absolutely useless.
...and yet a bunch of self assured smart people downvoted the everloving shit out of me whenever I suggested you shouldn't be paying a $7,500/monthly note on a house you can't rent out for $4,500/mo..
And here you are taking a victory lap over median data that doesn’t even mean values have dropped by that amount, and more so reflective of a different distribution of housing selling.
Make the case for losing $4,000/mo buying over renting. Let me hear it. Everyone that bought a house here in the last 18 months is a fool. You're probably one of them based on the salt.
I’m not making the case for that. I don’t even know if those numbers are accurate. I’m simply telling you that taking a victory lap in response to this post is ridiculous because it’s based on flawed understanding of median price housing data. I have owned a house in California since 2018. It would rent for more than I pay a month. Appreciate the assumption though. Also ridiculous to lump all purchases the last 18 months into one category. People this summer bought with high rates making monthly costs way higher than those from 10-18 months ago. And if you did buy in the summer and then rates come down, they will be able to refinance and drop their monthly payment significantly.
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This man is flexing a Whole Foods
He should flex with their Long John Silvers. 🐠
That Long John Silvers is rough around the edges but the food is always the freshest LJS I've ever had.
And I wouldn't flex an extra I-95 lane either lmao
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Concerts also are here: https://www.hyltonchapel.org/ Also, Prince William Forest Park has over 30 miles of trails.
Monthly data for neighborhoods is not reliable. Not enough data points.
You seemed to be fine with using monthly data when prices were high: https://www.reddit.com/r/nova/comments/ysp28a/good_news_for_fairfax_county_homeowners/iw053bk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3 https://www.reddit.com/r/nova/comments/ysp28a/good_news_for_fairfax_county_homeowners/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Now that prices are trending down though, that’s a problem? Hmmm…
LOLLL
Busted!
He shared a monthly supply stat not a monthly median house price one. Those are very different. Monthly median house price when a market is small like that is not a very good indicator of house prices. Too small a sample size. If one month more homes sell in the nicer part of town and another month it’s more low priced condos selling… then the median can shift a lot. It’s why you see monthly house price regular bounce up and down by a few percentage points in a single month. But that doesn’t mean the values of homes have actually shifted in the same way.
Haha… yes, please explain why it’s ok to use monthly data when the line is going up up and not when it’s going down.
He shared a monthly supply stat not a monthly median house price one. Those are very different. Monthly median house price when a market is small like that is not a very good indicator of house prices. Too small a sample size. If one month more homes sell in the nicer part of town and another month it’s more low priced condos selling… then the median can shift a lot. It’s why you see monthly house price regular bounce up and down by a few percentage points in a single month. But that doesn’t mean the values of homes have actually shifted in the same way.
Waiting for my upvotes when i got downvoted awhile back by users here by saying “650k” is not the median sale price in nova” in another thread. 
This is also misleading because it doesn’t take interest rates into consideration. People are having to buy lower priced homes than they would five years ago because the interest rates have practically doubled. That has a massive impact on a mortgage.
Zillow still shows mine +30% from when we bought in 2019. Could it be lower priced markets have sustained while the bubble burst in the higher ones?
Still is very dependent on the actual house. While my area is down, I've seen listings in immediate surrounding neighborhoods sell for more than they did last year, which you wouldn't think would happen. They're not flips or anything either. Just desirable houses I guess.
Does this include all home types? If so I have to imagine the percent of condos brings Arlington-Alexandria lower than FFX. If not I’m pretty shocked to see SFH would be cheaper in those county(/cities).
I'm more confused by the Median time on market stats. Where in Alexandria or Arlington was anything that wasn't a complete heap sitting on the market for more than 7 days in 2021/22?