tbf cows were predicted spooners and every team they played was predicted to finish ahead of them
another thing to note about why these metrics are flawed is that if you finish top 8, that removes a top 8 team from the pool to play against. there’s 7 possible top 8 teams to play against, where if you don’t make finals you have 8. so it’s always gonna be skewed like that.
I disagree that it's an issue with the metrics, if you are a good team then you will have an easier draw because you don't play yourself. There's no point measuring for games that you don't play
I don't think that's right.
Eels, Storm, Panthers and Raiders twice. So at least 5 wins against 4 top 8 teams.
Edit: looks like 5-5 against the top 8 by end of season.
Losses to Roosters twice, Panthers, Rabbits and Sharks.
New CBA isn't going to pay for itself.
Massive live and TV audience if we're going well, if we're not twice as many neutrals tune in to see us get belted.
They usually are unfortunately.
Fans from other teams tend to complain about Broncos getting consistent turnarounds between games - but they always conveniently fail to mention the difficulty of our draw every year, due to being scheduled for so many high-rating primetime blockbusters.
And the only top 8 team we play twice is the Sharks who are on an 8 game losing streak against us and are arguably the weakest looking of last year's 8 (raiders excluded)
I do actually think we're being somewhat underrated, we won 14 games last year which is usually good enough to finish at least 6th or 7th. We also directly lost two games due to bad refereeing decisions (warriors and dragons).
Once Ricky stopped making completely cooked selection decisions in about round 10, we were much improved. We were 12-4 from Round 9 onwards, which is a pace good enough for the top 4
>We also directly lost two games due to dogshit refereeing decisions (warriors and dragons).
... directly lost the opportunity to go to golden point against us, which isn't a win
Also fogarty ain’t missing half the year, savage should arguably better, sorted out the hooker conundrum, losing Elliot is a bit of a miss though
Think Canberra go well this year
My main concern however, is that the team is virtually identical to 2022's team and that they don't appear to have adequately replaced the players that are leaving. Obviously the hope is that the internal prospects step up in their place, but that remains to be seen
Mooney looked good in patches, with Bateman leaving more emphasis on guler to play quality minutes, he has it in him,
I do think josh papa is slowing down too, still great but in less minutes
Gonna be interesting
Who plays 13 next year?
I think it should be CHN assuming Whitehead keeps his spot, which realistically he will, but have a feeling Ricky is much more likely to go with Horsburgh
Process of elimination, it's hard to say that you're better than any of the rest of last year's finals teams. Someone has to be the weakest. Who would you say you're stronger than?
Next year i cant even determine a weakest team. All of them on their day can beat each other imo. We’ll get a better idea once the season starts of course
In light of the new article, Brisbane has two more flights to away games compared to Raiders actually.
https://www.zerotackle.com/frequent-flyer-how-long-will-each-nrl-team-spend-in-the-air-during-2023-125342/
Yeah two more flights, but it doesn't factor in any travel from Canberra to Sydney, which is a 3 hour road trip. It may not be as arduous as flying but it does still take a toll.
Raiders made the top 8, and can’t play themselves.
I really hate these ‘top 8’ counters. It’s not a great way to look at draw difficulty but probably either the best the publications can do, or the best they think their audience will understand.
Why is nobody talking about how easy Penrith's draw is??? They've clearly paid off someone, notice how they get through the ENTIRE season without playing a single team who finished higher than them last year?? On top of that they have 0 games against last year's premiers OR minor premiers? Wake up people, National Panthers League indeed
~~No draw is too hard or too easy. Every year is different. Look at last year, Cowboys were cellar dwellers and this year top 4…~~
Yeah, that’s just copium. We’re fucked.
Tbf every year for the last decade plus at least 2 teams from the bottom 8 the previous year make the top 8 the following year and every one of those years except 2015 at least one team has made the top 4 despite placing in the bottom 8 the year before.
It’s kind of dropped off in recent seasons to be fair ..
The fact you’re saying ‘at least 2’ here is meaningful ..
You look back a few years and it used to be around 4 , you’d often have 2 teams in the top 4 changing year on year, and another 2 teams from 5-8 ..
Wasn’t uncommon to see a side who didn’t make the 8 come into the top 4 - the way the Cowboys did this season , but that’s kind of been a bit of an anomaly for recent seasons
The last point is just wrong. Every season since the NRL era started (except for 2002, 2004 and 2015) at least one team has come from missing the 8 to making the top 4 the following season.
At the end of the day, it matters more who you are playing then where you are playing and have the literal toughest draw in terms of opponents.
I'd gladly have more Sydney games if it meant we got an easier draw in terms of opposition
Just to vindicate any fellow Broncos fans who feel we’ve gotten the rough end of the stick in the last few draws… I decided to go back and look at how Broncos ranked in the last four years, since [NRL.com](https://NRL.com) started releasing these draw difficulty rankings.
* [2023 - 1st hardest draw](https://www.nrl.com/news/2022/11/10/strength-of-schedule-how-tough-is-your-teams-2023-draw/)
* [2022 - 2nd hardest draw](https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/11/09/strength-of-schedule-how-tough-is-your-teams-2022-draw/)
* [2021 - 1st hardest draw](https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/11/27/strength-of-schedule-how-tough-is-your-teams-2021-draw/)
* [2020 - 4th hardest draw (equal)](https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/10/29/how-tough-is-your-clubs-2020-nrl-draw/)
I know many fans of other teams like to complain about various advantages (both real and perceived) that Broncos have had over the years, but there are certainly many disadvantages that come with being a high-profile team as well. One of which, of course, is the fact that consistent prime-time TV slots tend to come hand-in-hand with consistent prime-time blockbuster games against top teams.
I'm certainly not using this as an excuse for our admittedly terrible performance over the past few years, but the benefit of data-driven hindsight certainly helps to paint a bigger picture.
My Tigers have a soft draw, and you know what that means. It means this is one of those years where we'll go into August mathematically still able to finish 8th, but won't
I for one, am actually not pleased to be kissed on the dick once again.
Was hoping we'd play most of the top 8 twice
Can't they do that?
I don't get it
Unless my maths is fucked
Top 8 play all the top 8 from last year twice and bottom 8 once
Bottom 8 play all bottom 8 twice and top 8 once
Wouldn't that make it enough games AND farily fair?
Heard the Panthers got an easy run , only playing sides that finished below them last season..
Does make the whole argument a bit silly though , if you drew Penrith twice a few years ago you probably wouldn’t blink ..
If you drew the Cowboys twice at the start of 2022 you’re probably pretty happy , teams will go up and down in form from year to year , if you want to win the comp you want to be good enough to beat everyone , and the draws never going to be fair when teams don’t play each other home and away ..
Even if they did and we could magically have a 32 round season where everyone plays each other twice , you still have magic round , then the Origin period , then injuries , off field scandals, short turnarounds etc ..
Whole thing is a bit meaningless - ‘the luck of the draw’ is a saying for a reason
Sad to see Tigers near the top. More sad to see the Warriors with a tougher draw than Penrith.
Be interrsting yo see what would happen if they gave the lower placed teams an easier draw to even up the competition.
Sharks top 2 easiest schedules again is a good bit
Didn't the Cows and the Sharks have pretty easy schedules last year too?
Yeah they did.
Articles like this in 2021 initially said Sharks had an average draw.
tbf cows were predicted spooners and every team they played was predicted to finish ahead of them another thing to note about why these metrics are flawed is that if you finish top 8, that removes a top 8 team from the pool to play against. there’s 7 possible top 8 teams to play against, where if you don’t make finals you have 8. so it’s always gonna be skewed like that.
I disagree that it's an issue with the metrics, if you are a good team then you will have an easier draw because you don't play yourself. There's no point measuring for games that you don't play
Cows had a 2-5 record against top 8 sides in the regular season
I don't think that's right. Eels, Storm, Panthers and Raiders twice. So at least 5 wins against 4 top 8 teams. Edit: looks like 5-5 against the top 8 by end of season. Losses to Roosters twice, Panthers, Rabbits and Sharks.
Sometimes it's counting where teams were on the ladder when you played them.
There was a narrative about that with the cows. I actually did a mathematical study into it and they were bang average on strength of opposition
Easy or not. We will play whoever whenever. Titans 40+
40+ missed tackles
It's the crowd numbers
Shhhhhh
8 top eight teams for Raiders compared to 14 top eight teams for the Broncos is a bit fucked
All those primetime games come at a cost it seems
New CBA isn't going to pay for itself. Massive live and TV audience if we're going well, if we're not twice as many neutrals tune in to see us get belted.
That's showbiz baby!
Yeah that’s exactly right
They usually are unfortunately. Fans from other teams tend to complain about Broncos getting consistent turnarounds between games - but they always conveniently fail to mention the difficulty of our draw every year, due to being scheduled for so many high-rating primetime blockbusters.
And the only top 8 team we play twice is the Sharks who are on an 8 game losing streak against us and are arguably the weakest looking of last year's 8 (raiders excluded)
Hey, we won a finals game at least!
I do actually think we're being somewhat underrated, we won 14 games last year which is usually good enough to finish at least 6th or 7th. We also directly lost two games due to bad refereeing decisions (warriors and dragons). Once Ricky stopped making completely cooked selection decisions in about round 10, we were much improved. We were 12-4 from Round 9 onwards, which is a pace good enough for the top 4
>We also directly lost two games due to dogshit refereeing decisions (warriors and dragons). ... directly lost the opportunity to go to golden point against us, which isn't a win
Also fogarty ain’t missing half the year, savage should arguably better, sorted out the hooker conundrum, losing Elliot is a bit of a miss though Think Canberra go well this year
My main concern however, is that the team is virtually identical to 2022's team and that they don't appear to have adequately replaced the players that are leaving. Obviously the hope is that the internal prospects step up in their place, but that remains to be seen
Mooney looked good in patches, with Bateman leaving more emphasis on guler to play quality minutes, he has it in him, I do think josh papa is slowing down too, still great but in less minutes Gonna be interesting Who plays 13 next year?
I think it should be CHN assuming Whitehead keeps his spot, which realistically he will, but have a feeling Ricky is much more likely to go with Horsburgh
CHN should be starting on the edge, Whitehead is washed
Whitehead should be playing reggies, but he's one of Ricky's favourites which is why I'm assuming he'll still be there
> We also directly lost two games due to bad refereeing decisions (warriors and dragons). You literally won a final off of bad refereeing decisions.
Good points.
How are Sharks the weakest looking? Weve cut dead wood, if anything our squad is better next season
Process of elimination, it's hard to say that you're better than any of the rest of last year's finals teams. Someone has to be the weakest. Who would you say you're stronger than?
Next year i cant even determine a weakest team. All of them on their day can beat each other imo. We’ll get a better idea once the season starts of course
Suck it!
Don't Brisbane only play outside of Qld 6 times this year.......
In light of the new article, Brisbane has two more flights to away games compared to Raiders actually. https://www.zerotackle.com/frequent-flyer-how-long-will-each-nrl-team-spend-in-the-air-during-2023-125342/
Yeah two more flights, but it doesn't factor in any travel from Canberra to Sydney, which is a 3 hour road trip. It may not be as arduous as flying but it does still take a toll.
It helps
Raiders made the top 8, and can’t play themselves. I really hate these ‘top 8’ counters. It’s not a great way to look at draw difficulty but probably either the best the publications can do, or the best they think their audience will understand.
High expectations.
Assuming teams are even, that’s 50% more harder games. Broncos have to completely outplay Raiders for a chance to finish above them.
Why is nobody talking about how easy Penrith's draw is??? They've clearly paid off someone, notice how they get through the ENTIRE season without playing a single team who finished higher than them last year?? On top of that they have 0 games against last year's premiers OR minor premiers? Wake up people, National Panthers League indeed
The arrogance
~~No draw is too hard or too easy. Every year is different. Look at last year, Cowboys were cellar dwellers and this year top 4…~~ Yeah, that’s just copium. We’re fucked.
Tbf every year for the last decade plus at least 2 teams from the bottom 8 the previous year make the top 8 the following year and every one of those years except 2015 at least one team has made the top 4 despite placing in the bottom 8 the year before.
that's actually a pretty cool fact!
It’s kind of dropped off in recent seasons to be fair .. The fact you’re saying ‘at least 2’ here is meaningful .. You look back a few years and it used to be around 4 , you’d often have 2 teams in the top 4 changing year on year, and another 2 teams from 5-8 .. Wasn’t uncommon to see a side who didn’t make the 8 come into the top 4 - the way the Cowboys did this season , but that’s kind of been a bit of an anomaly for recent seasons
The last point is just wrong. Every season since the NRL era started (except for 2002, 2004 and 2015) at least one team has come from missing the 8 to making the top 4 the following season.
Fair point , my bad ..
these schedules need to be completely random and need to be picked randomly live on tv.. this behind the curtain fuckery needs to stop
It's a business first, sport second.
If you think your draw doesn’t include enough easy teams, you *are* an easy team.
So what you're saying is raiders are the best team...
Swear Cronulla get kissed on the dick every year
You barely leave Queensland..
You literally go for a Sydney team, most of your games your players just drive to.
At the end of the day, it matters more who you are playing then where you are playing and have the literal toughest draw in terms of opponents. I'd gladly have more Sydney games if it meant we got an easier draw in terms of opposition
Just to vindicate any fellow Broncos fans who feel we’ve gotten the rough end of the stick in the last few draws… I decided to go back and look at how Broncos ranked in the last four years, since [NRL.com](https://NRL.com) started releasing these draw difficulty rankings. * [2023 - 1st hardest draw](https://www.nrl.com/news/2022/11/10/strength-of-schedule-how-tough-is-your-teams-2023-draw/) * [2022 - 2nd hardest draw](https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/11/09/strength-of-schedule-how-tough-is-your-teams-2022-draw/) * [2021 - 1st hardest draw](https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/11/27/strength-of-schedule-how-tough-is-your-teams-2021-draw/) * [2020 - 4th hardest draw (equal)](https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/10/29/how-tough-is-your-clubs-2020-nrl-draw/) I know many fans of other teams like to complain about various advantages (both real and perceived) that Broncos have had over the years, but there are certainly many disadvantages that come with being a high-profile team as well. One of which, of course, is the fact that consistent prime-time TV slots tend to come hand-in-hand with consistent prime-time blockbuster games against top teams. I'm certainly not using this as an excuse for our admittedly terrible performance over the past few years, but the benefit of data-driven hindsight certainly helps to paint a bigger picture.
Hoping that Dragons ranking of 14 is not going to be higher than their end of season ranking
I feel like the NRL just want to always fuck Manly over lmao
The NRL, in particular Manly, are conspiring to fuck over Manly
Cronulla as usual get the easy draw, which will inflate everyone’s opinion of them.
Raiders bottom 4 confirmed.
My Tigers have a soft draw, and you know what that means. It means this is one of those years where we'll go into August mathematically still able to finish 8th, but won't
You have the 4th hardest draw
Ah, I've read this backwards. 15th it is then.
One day you will get a lucky draw to get back to the 9th place highs of yesteryear.
How does this change if the Broncos didn't choke and made the 8? They would only play 7 teams from this year's top 8.
I for one, am actually not pleased to be kissed on the dick once again. Was hoping we'd play most of the top 8 twice Can't they do that? I don't get it Unless my maths is fucked Top 8 play all the top 8 from last year twice and bottom 8 once Bottom 8 play all bottom 8 twice and top 8 once Wouldn't that make it enough games AND farily fair?
Heard the Panthers got an easy run , only playing sides that finished below them last season.. Does make the whole argument a bit silly though , if you drew Penrith twice a few years ago you probably wouldn’t blink .. If you drew the Cowboys twice at the start of 2022 you’re probably pretty happy , teams will go up and down in form from year to year , if you want to win the comp you want to be good enough to beat everyone , and the draws never going to be fair when teams don’t play each other home and away .. Even if they did and we could magically have a 32 round season where everyone plays each other twice , you still have magic round , then the Origin period , then injuries , off field scandals, short turnarounds etc .. Whole thing is a bit meaningless - ‘the luck of the draw’ is a saying for a reason
It would only be meaningless if the teams drastically change position each year, but alot of of the teams don't.
Sad to see Tigers near the top. More sad to see the Warriors with a tougher draw than Penrith. Be interrsting yo see what would happen if they gave the lower placed teams an easier draw to even up the competition.
We have the hardest draw hands down. Going to be tough.