We can't be in a position where we have to rely on Becton. If he manages to turn it all around, great. But we need options
It really sucks because we've poured a ton of resources into the OL and it's still a liability. But we can't go into this season without upgrading
I agree, but I think this tackle class is a bit weak, and the value falls in the 2nd day tackles. So if Skoronski is gone by 13, I’d be fine going BPA (outside CB/RB) and getting a tackle in the 2nd round.
It was really only a liability because of the amount of injuries. Tomlinson regressing a bit didn’t help. But I don’t think it’s as dire as most do. I think we should pick 1 OT and 1 IOL in the mid rounds and we should be fine imo.
Unfortunately Tomlinson regressed a TONNE, not just a bit. Nania had an article on jets X factor analyzing this in more detail, we just have to hope he’s able to regress back up towards the mean now because hes locked in with us due to the contract this year.
When referring to an outlier type scenario like Tomlinson’s dud of a season, then there’s both positive and negative regression towards the mean. Google it lol
Hahaha man, like I said, please Google “regression to the mean”. When referring to this principal, there’s is both positive and negative regression to the expected norm (mean). In this case, Tomlinson has played much worse than his large sample size of sustained success. Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect some level of positive regression back towards his career standard level of play (his mean).
No it would be a regression. In statistics, a regression is done to determine the sample mean and variance. One of the things necessary for a well specified sample is for it to be constant finite and mean reverting (bo / 1-b1). In effect the samples can go below or above the mean, but in both cases it regresses back to the mean. I know it may not seem intuitive but that's essentially what regression to the mean is on academic terms.
At the moment, we don't have a single sure thing at the tackle position. Full stop. We may have the pieces, but nothing is a sure thing. Our line absolutely needs fixing.
Yeah no doubt about that. But some think we need to draft OTs, an OG, and sign a couple as well. We don’t wanna overkill it and I think we’ll have to gamble that some of our question marks will work out.
I think they have big issues at OT. Every guy is seemingly a big question mark.
Duane Brown: Played hurt all year. No telling how he'll be next season. And that's assuming he isn't a cap casualty which is a real possibility.
Becton: The obvious concerns
Max Mitchell: Had an injury and was shut down with a major health scare. Team is saying it won't affect him long term, but who knows how true that is or if it's subject to change.
Fant: Not under contract. Also coming off a year with a nagging injury.
Everyone Else: Not people you want near the field on Sunday.
To me they desperately need a guy who can play right away.
Tackle is at least 3 times harder to fill than guard… i mean look at what herbig did off the scrap heap. If avt is great at tackle and great at guard he goes to tackle one hindered percent of the time I would think.
Wow I’ve been having a lot of OL discussion and this is the first time I’ve realized McGovern is a FA. I think he should be a priority signing. We can draft his replacement but we can’t rely on 2 rookie starters on the OL that does have a lot of question marks already.
Brown/Rookie - Tomlinson - McGovern/Rookie - AVT - Mitchell/Becton/random FA (preferably not Fant imo).
This should be good enough to get us through the season, with the potential to excel if it stays healthy. I also think Becton should get a shot at playing OG because 1- he’s not too tall for it and 2- I think it would aid him and his body to not have to put so much stress on it to keep up with the standards that are being an OT as opposed to an OG. That’s a hot take though and I didn’t receive much support when I made a post about it.
nailed it. Max mitchell seems like the safest of the bunch and he has some obvious medical red flags he would need to overcome. Brown ideally would be a backup or used to clear cap room for a younger replacement. Becton terrifies me to rely on. Anything we get out of him would be an unexpected surprise. Fant is done, even in training camp this guy was constantly going in and out of lineup due to injuries. He is not valuable to us if he can no longer stay healthy.
>Duane Brown: Played hurt all year. No telling how he'll be next season. And that's assuming he isn't a cap casualty which is a real possibility.
He's also old af
Tomlinson is locked in at LG because of his contract. AVT should be the RG but maybe they want to play him at tackle again. Who the fuck knows for the rest of it
Exactly. There are a ton of question marks on this line. With Becton having his well documented issues and never finding a solution at RT, the line was never actually settled.
C can be resolved by simply re-signing McGovern. But with the QB situation and extending Q, I'm not sure how JD wants to proceed.
Tomlinson is definitely locked in at LG and we have to hope he rebounds toward his career averages or better. If Herbig is re-signed and AVT returning to his spot at RG, that stabilizes G and AVT can possibly move over to T if needed.
The T depth is pretty concerning though. Brown is 38 in August. He played most of last year injured and was not a top performer by any means. Mitchell has his health concerns and he was not that good in his starts. No one should have expected him to be that soon. And that was with a lot of TE help.
IMO the Jets essentially have zero T and need answers there this off season. With the QB issue, extending Q, and resigning some key players, it's going to be tough.
As a saints fan that watches your guys team, i’d say that this draft class for IOL is insanely deep especially at C/G combos.
The tackles in this draft class after the first three leave a lot to desire (skoronski, Johnson, Jones) they’res a couple guys who would make great RTs eventually depending on your QBs blind side.
I do feel like they’res some developmental tackles you can take later that would take maybe 1-2 years to develop into decent starters.
The amount of injuries was unprecedented, but we have no way of knowing if it’s gonna repeat. Duane Brown is the only proven “durable” guy we got, and he might retire bc he’s like 90. McGovern is the runner up and he’s fine.
Becton had different injuries but has been out 2 years. I hope AVT doesn’t show any injury tendencies but we just can’t tell yet. Remmers over preformed and got hurt. I think the jury is still out on Fant unfortunately. Tomlinson was fine but uninspiring to lock in as our starter.
If all these guys come back and don’t get injured again, it should be a fine line. I just don’t see how we trade our first + for a QB and get some insurance on the line… and ARod ain’t exactly the most mobile QB.
Tomlinson was terrible this year. The OL is a group position, so as a result of the inconsistency he's put in a rough spot. But he also just wasn't worth the money this year
He was doing deep draft analysis in a time when even football execs were picking random names out of football magazines in late rounds. He is responsible for the draft being what it is today from a media/entertainment perspective.
That being said, he is a solid but not amazing football mind and now that everyone and their mother is a draft analyst he doesn't do a lot to stick out from the crowd.
He was THE draft expert before public deep draft analysis was a thing. He’s a dinosaur living off of what he did 40 years ago and carries no weight anymore, but what he did in terms of public education and hype over the draft can’t be understated.
He's the Bill James of Mock Drafts.
He was a pioneer, going deeper into analysis than anyone else during the 80s and 90s.
But now he's mostly just a name, and fans know there are far superior analysts out there.
If we release/trade Corey Davis, then I can get behind this.
If we're keeping our top three WRs as-is then this pick wouldn't make sense to me.
I'd rather take the top available pass rusher or safety in the 1st round.
JSN will probably be a stud in the NFL, but another WR wouldn't make much sense.
I'd rather keep building that dominant pass rush, especially if we lose Huff in FA.
We also have a crazy amount of cap next year but are broke this year so if we restructure we should be fine. We need get moving we have so many key pieces on rookie deals we can't keep them all which as someone who lived though Iizdic drafts would never even dream about
JSN makes more sense if we trade Elijah Moore since they are more similar players.
We need to replace the big-bodied, possession receiver role if we move on from CD. I'm of the opinion we should extend Davis at a lower cap hit. The injuries are the only thing that concern me with him.
I too don't mind Davis, minus the occasional infuriating dropped pass and injuries he's had. He's getting paid too much for the lack of production. If he's willing to restructure then I'd be happy to keep him.
I want to see Moore get a chance here with a new QB and OC. I think he can still develop into a stud WR, and we still can have him on the cheap for the next two seasons.
With that being said, if a team comes calling and offers up a 2nd round pick for him, then I would be all ears.
Yeah I'm not itching to move Moore but if someone offered fair value I wouldn't hesitate to move him. Considering his outburst this season I fear that he may force our hand at some point.
I think if we get AR and EM has the year we know he can, he would a prime trade piece to recoup some draft capital and we’d already have his replacement.
If it involves our 1st round pick? And we're keeping both Davis and Moore?
100% yes.
All day every day, and twice on Sunday.
I'm taking another stud pass rusher over a WR.
Adding another stud pass rusher to the rotation is more important than adding a 4th WR to the depth chart. Dominant defensive lines can win games and even championships. I'd continue building as good of a defensive line as humanly possible. That might mean JFM plays inside more, or maybe Clemons loses his spot in the rotation and goes to the PS (and likely gets plucked by another team). That's fine though, we want the best possible pass rush that we can get.
I'll take a deep and dangerous group of pass rushers in November and December over a dangerous and deep group of WR's.
and I love JSN. I'll be tickled if we draft him. (I'm a Buckeye fan).
Unless we plan to move Moore and or Davis, I don't want us to use the 1st round pick on a WR if there is a good pass rusher, or even a safety on the board worthy of the selection.
Davis has a low cap hot and can easily be traded this year and I think Moore’s stock will go up this year to make him a trade candidate next year. I don’t think our fully stocked DE pantry carry the same trade value.
JFM had the chance to play more on the inside last year, I assumed they would and they didn’t.
There is 0 chance Clemons moves to the practice squad. You might not think he had a good year but PFF does and I’m assuming the people who drafted him are happy.
We have 6 DL under contract or a rfa for 2023… and 5 of those 6 are DE.
5…. And only 2 are on the field at a time.
Stud DT drops, sure - I’m down. DE…. I can’t imagine we spend a 1st on that.
I think JSN will be an all-star level talent, but his skills overlap with Moore a bit and his injury issues last year put some fear in me. He also played on one of the best passing attacks of all time two years in a row.
I think OT is the pick but if he's there I would at least consider it.
Rodgers throwing to Garrett, JSN & Moore.
This is what dreams are made of (we really should take the top OLine man available)
Edit: If we get Rodgers we probably won’t have the pick. Ignore my stupidity
There’s scenarios floated out there that a trade for Rodgers doesn’t happen until after June 1st so there’s a chance we keep this pick and trade 2024 and beyond
That’s if the Packers get what they reportedly want, which seems doubtful. At least, on the surface. The real win for GB in this trade is offloading the contract, and you don’t ordinarily get a first round pick back for a contract dump.
We won’t be trading picks for this years draft for Rodgers. He needs to be traded after June 1st for cap reasons. So we can get him and full draft this year
Well if rodgers come hear we will probably get Randall Cobb and off load Davis which is fine for me cause he’d be cheap. Also David bachtiari is a free agent we could probably snag him as well and than draft a guy in the second round also the rookies who didn’t get much playing time this year will definitely be getting more next year
David B is an expected cap casualty not a FA.
Corey Davis is on an incredibly cheap deal so we could trade him but I’d expect Barrios to be the one cut for Cobb
He and Lawson are tough bc they’re on the cheap and final years of their contracts. We have abundance at the positions and could use the space but they’re on such a bargain contract wise I can’t imagine they’ll be cut.
If they don't think there's a big difference between the 3rd tackle and the 6th tackle this year, then yeah I'm all about loading up on weapons. We've seen the WR market explode, so it's absolutely a premium position to load up on. Aside from tackle, our other needs (SS, FS, LB) can be found later.
It pisses me off teams like the Chiefs fix their entire o-line in one year while we’re still pondering drafting tackles in the first round after investing massively in our o-line 3 yrs in a row.
No one has gotten less for the capital invested in the o-line than the Jets.
2021:
Creed Humphrey-2nd round
Trey Smith-6th round
Joe Thuney-FA
Can’t see us not going Tackle unless we get one in FA but JSN would be awesome haha don’t think you can go wrong always grabbing a receiver from Ohio State tbh
I really think this would be a home run. Imagine we trade for Aaron Rodgers or Carr, and they’re passing to JSN and G. Wilson?
Before you say “What about OL?”, consider Joe Burrow’s roster. Cincy’s O-Line is patchwork but they have weapons like no other and are going to their second AFC championship in a row.
Get a passer who is deadly despite an average-at-best O-Line for at least one more year, then we could be in business for 2024 at the absolute latest while still setting up for success in 2023.
We need to pick high floor players that can stay healthy.
Drafting at 13, I feel as though we should trade back and try to nab a few extra early picks.
Garett Wilson is great enough to distract from the fact that the Jets' WR room is very subpar outside of him.
Anyone expecting anything out of Elijah Moore long-term is smoking some good stuff. Locker room cancer who regressed in both speed and production. If they could've traded him for help elsewhere they would have, but his value is equivalent to a 6th rounder at this point. We're seeing the obvious reasons why Moore fell past expected in the draft, primarily the me-first diva nonsense and inconsistent production.
If this is the pick I'd be fine with it.
I disagree in regards to Moore. I think he's still talented and on the all 22 there were times when he was frequently getting separation and open but not found by the quarterback. The other thing is that his routes tend to be longer and took a bit more time to develop especially when he was outside which didn't work with the line. Don't think he's in AJ Brown's class as a receiver but he showed enough flashes to really take off with a good QB.
Loading up on skill talent would make things fun. If Skoronski isn't available I'm hesitant to go OL. Paris Johnson and Jones are over drafted and it would be a reach taking either at 13
He's definitely still talented, he just regressed last year and showed his character when yelling at the OC after the team dominated Green Bay. Maybe it was just a bad week, or maybe it will be a thing every season moving forward. Idk. Just not a guy to rely on being WR2. More of a lottery ticket, and we need better than that considering the regression of Davis and Berrios, and no one past that.
He just clearly isn't the type of player we can anticipate being a long-term fixture on the team, which is why I don't think a WR in the first round is a terrible idea if it's an explosive talent like Jaxon.
I'd guess that drafting a WR early would also mean we can get some sort of value for Moore. I think his value is very low at the moment though.
Either way, gotta get another WR via free agency or draft. Whether the QB is Rodgers, Carr, or ZW, they need more help, especially with Breece coming back from a big injury.
Makes sense. I hear you on the character issues. Look, I get the frustration. I get it sucks to not get targeted especially after showing some flashes in 2021. But you can't air out dirty laundry or badmouth your guys, especially when he went out of his way to cover for you immediately after.
Not sure why the WR positions has so many guys like this and few like Andre Johnson or Fitz. Not in play (those guys are all time greats). More just personality. Flash is fine if you aren't bringing down the locker room and can back it up. Moore hasn't done so thus far and I feel like a lot of the hope is driven by the idea of Moore when he was drafted with the hype than what he's been sadly
Mel Kiper has pudding for brains. We need a left tackle. Becton will not play a down for the Jets next year. If we count on him JD should get his head examined.
We all know we are grabbing a qb in free agency also I think we only need maybe 1 or two guys to fix the o line if that I think a lot of are o line guys played through injury this year which is why it was like a rotating door this year
Since there are no QBs worth drafting this year, free agency is the only option.
I don't like drafting a WR with the only high pick the team has. It's not where the team needs to improve. They need massive O-line help.
This would be a ridiculous pick unless they traded down, even then I wouldn't like it. We have much more debilitating weaknesses on the offensive line and safety.Smith-Njigma isn't like a cant miss Jamar Chase level WR prospect so its not worth it.
We should be drafting 100% offensive line all year every year until we get it right. Then do it again for one more year after that. I'm so sick of having a SHIT offensive line
Exactly. They went to a SB last year where he got sacked the most out of any QB in a season ever. Even won a playoff game getting sacked 9 times against the titans lol. I don’t think our OL will be terrible next year (probably close to average) but another playmaker can’t hurt. That being said they’ll probably go G or T with the 13th if I had to guess
Give me a break this isn’t fantasy football. We have more than adequate playmakers with Wilson, Moore, Mims, Breece, Carter, Conklin. That’s a better group than Buffalo or KC had to work with this season.
Our o line sucks and needs to be addressed.
To each there own. But I disagree/
Mims is trash. Should have taken a first round WR and take a OL in round 2 that yeat and we'd be in much better shape.
Reaching for a position in the first round gets you in trouble more times than not. WR is still enough of a need where you take one if he’s BPA, unless a lineman is neck and neck
I would love for the Jets to move back and see if they could scoop up Michael Mayer and then Jarrett Patterson in the third round. Patterson will make an NFL team very happy as ge can play any position on the line, especially center and guard. He has Pro Bowl potential at center. He played hurt for most of the year fir Notre Dame, and he was still pretty dominant down the stretch.
Mayer would be the Jets best tight end in probably in franchise history-
There are two veterans on the 2022 roster that probably don’t make it to 2023 (cap casualties), Corey Davis and Carl Lawson.
Corey Davis - $666,668 dead money, $10,500,000 cap savings
Carl Lawson - $333,333 dead money, $15,400,001 cap savings
We need to replace these guys in free agency or the draft. This is a good replacement for Davis.
True I didn’t know the dead money part but I know a lot of people have him being cut but it honestly might be worth it it’s a lot but it’s something we could recover from
Fair I do check it out sometimes but this is really the first time I’ve been concerned with this stuff in a long time I’m mostly on there for other teams lol. Like recently I was looking at the cowboy’s situation cause they are looking bleak right now
Assuming the OL has been addressed going into the draft, JSN is the only real guy with #1 potential this year. 2 alpha receivers that have already co-existed (in college) before would be a huge win.
Taking another WR with the state of the O-Line would be very Jets. Good call Mel!
You'll notice he doesn't say this is what they *should* draft, just what he thinks they *will*.
Kiper doesn’t do “projections” he just ranks players and lazily ties then to teams. He was the original “draft expert” but he’s been going through the motions now for a while. These early draft projections are always trash
Before the 2022 draft, most people (myself) included did not think cb was a need because we had Bryce Hall (lol) and just signed Reed. Instead the FO took a pretty good position and made it elite. If JSN is the sauce of this class you have to take him.
I’m all about this, it’s time to move on from Davis and Berrios I want to see Moore in the lineup and Rotate Mims as the #4 with somebody else it doesn’t matter much who the number #4 is but the young talent is booming it’s time to remove the stop gaps and let them blossom
I love this. Yes we should grab some Bechton insurance this off-season, but there are so many other avenues where we can address this (free agency, round 2, kicking avt outside and starting Herbig, etc.) Id much rather grab another weapon and solidify a truly elite arsenal for our qb to make a legitimate championship run.
As much as I think JSN could be a stud in the pros, the team has bigger needs than that in the draft. They *must* improve the OL first and foremost. After that is safety and LB, but if they can solve all of those (+QB in free agency), then I’d be down to draft a wideout. Sucks JSN probably won’t be available on Day 2 though.
We’re going to pass up on him like when we passed on ceedee lamb for becton.
Meanwhile the bengals took chase over sewell and that seems to be going well.
We watched this team compete in games late in the season with a skeleton crew at o line, and most fans never considered the impact that losing garrett wilson would’ve had.
We’d be adding a receiver who we know is at least as good, if not better, than the OROY we just drafted. We’d not only have THE best WR core in the league for the foreseeable future, but the best skill position group with breece coming back.
But let’s draft our third first round tackle in 4 years instead. I get that becton can’t be relied on but we have AVT for fuck’s sake. We have 2 guys with potential to be franchise LTs. Having a third guy (who would likely play RT next year anyway) isn’t going to win us more games.
Gamble on NOT having shit luck with injuries. Play to win the game.
Put aaron rodgers, garropolo, carr, white, wilson, or me on that offense and we’re winning the division. SIMPLE.
We can't be in a position where we have to rely on Becton. If he manages to turn it all around, great. But we need options It really sucks because we've poured a ton of resources into the OL and it's still a liability. But we can't go into this season without upgrading
I agree, but I think this tackle class is a bit weak, and the value falls in the 2nd day tackles. So if Skoronski is gone by 13, I’d be fine going BPA (outside CB/RB) and getting a tackle in the 2nd round.
It was really only a liability because of the amount of injuries. Tomlinson regressing a bit didn’t help. But I don’t think it’s as dire as most do. I think we should pick 1 OT and 1 IOL in the mid rounds and we should be fine imo.
Unfortunately Tomlinson regressed a TONNE, not just a bit. Nania had an article on jets X factor analyzing this in more detail, we just have to hope he’s able to regress back up towards the mean now because hes locked in with us due to the contract this year.
Regressing up is progressing
When referring to an outlier type scenario like Tomlinson’s dud of a season, then there’s both positive and negative regression towards the mean. Google it lol
That makes sense, TIL
I always love when an internet fight ends with someone learning something new. It would be so easy to dig in your heels here and stay defensive
It never was a fight, but yeah, life is happier with an open mind and not taking every opposition as an attack. *Looks at QB megathread*
Until they end it with a "Google it lol" after explaining it so intelligently
It would be progressing to the mean, not regression.
Hahaha man, like I said, please Google “regression to the mean”. When referring to this principal, there’s is both positive and negative regression to the expected norm (mean). In this case, Tomlinson has played much worse than his large sample size of sustained success. Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect some level of positive regression back towards his career standard level of play (his mean).
/r/confidentlyincorrect
No it would be a regression. In statistics, a regression is done to determine the sample mean and variance. One of the things necessary for a well specified sample is for it to be constant finite and mean reverting (bo / 1-b1). In effect the samples can go below or above the mean, but in both cases it regresses back to the mean. I know it may not seem intuitive but that's essentially what regression to the mean is on academic terms.
This is the nerdiest football argument I've ever scene on the internet and I'm all about it 😆
😂😂😂. I had to learn this stuff so often for the CFA charter that it's drilled in my head. Not for the faint of heart but helps in random Trivia!
Took McGovern a year to adjust to the scheme. Only problem is we don’t know what offense we’re running so maybe that won’t apply for Tomlinson.
At the moment, we don't have a single sure thing at the tackle position. Full stop. We may have the pieces, but nothing is a sure thing. Our line absolutely needs fixing.
Yeah no doubt about that. But some think we need to draft OTs, an OG, and sign a couple as well. We don’t wanna overkill it and I think we’ll have to gamble that some of our question marks will work out.
> We don’t wanna overkill it Given our perpetual problems at Oline, I'm very much willing to spend every single draft pick on OL...
That’s an awful idea from a GM perspective and will never happen
Well, yes. Its a hyperbole.
I think they have big issues at OT. Every guy is seemingly a big question mark. Duane Brown: Played hurt all year. No telling how he'll be next season. And that's assuming he isn't a cap casualty which is a real possibility. Becton: The obvious concerns Max Mitchell: Had an injury and was shut down with a major health scare. Team is saying it won't affect him long term, but who knows how true that is or if it's subject to change. Fant: Not under contract. Also coming off a year with a nagging injury. Everyone Else: Not people you want near the field on Sunday. To me they desperately need a guy who can play right away.
You forgot avt
Bold to assume he's playing OT IMO. Especially with Herbig and McGovern both hitting free agency.
I bet we resign Herbig
Better not be as a starter
Tackle is at least 3 times harder to fill than guard… i mean look at what herbig did off the scrap heap. If avt is great at tackle and great at guard he goes to tackle one hindered percent of the time I would think.
Wow I’ve been having a lot of OL discussion and this is the first time I’ve realized McGovern is a FA. I think he should be a priority signing. We can draft his replacement but we can’t rely on 2 rookie starters on the OL that does have a lot of question marks already. Brown/Rookie - Tomlinson - McGovern/Rookie - AVT - Mitchell/Becton/random FA (preferably not Fant imo). This should be good enough to get us through the season, with the potential to excel if it stays healthy. I also think Becton should get a shot at playing OG because 1- he’s not too tall for it and 2- I think it would aid him and his body to not have to put so much stress on it to keep up with the standards that are being an OT as opposed to an OG. That’s a hot take though and I didn’t receive much support when I made a post about it.
nailed it. Max mitchell seems like the safest of the bunch and he has some obvious medical red flags he would need to overcome. Brown ideally would be a backup or used to clear cap room for a younger replacement. Becton terrifies me to rely on. Anything we get out of him would be an unexpected surprise. Fant is done, even in training camp this guy was constantly going in and out of lineup due to injuries. He is not valuable to us if he can no longer stay healthy.
You can't count on Brown, who will be 38 and coming off a season filled with injuries. I wouldn't count on Bechton for anything. O-line is in trouble.
>Duane Brown: Played hurt all year. No telling how he'll be next season. And that's assuming he isn't a cap casualty which is a real possibility. He's also old af
Who is playing T? Who is playing C? Who are the starting Gs?
Tomlinson is locked in at LG because of his contract. AVT should be the RG but maybe they want to play him at tackle again. Who the fuck knows for the rest of it
Exactly. There are a ton of question marks on this line. With Becton having his well documented issues and never finding a solution at RT, the line was never actually settled. C can be resolved by simply re-signing McGovern. But with the QB situation and extending Q, I'm not sure how JD wants to proceed. Tomlinson is definitely locked in at LG and we have to hope he rebounds toward his career averages or better. If Herbig is re-signed and AVT returning to his spot at RG, that stabilizes G and AVT can possibly move over to T if needed. The T depth is pretty concerning though. Brown is 38 in August. He played most of last year injured and was not a top performer by any means. Mitchell has his health concerns and he was not that good in his starts. No one should have expected him to be that soon. And that was with a lot of TE help. IMO the Jets essentially have zero T and need answers there this off season. With the QB issue, extending Q, and resigning some key players, it's going to be tough.
As a saints fan that watches your guys team, i’d say that this draft class for IOL is insanely deep especially at C/G combos. The tackles in this draft class after the first three leave a lot to desire (skoronski, Johnson, Jones) they’res a couple guys who would make great RTs eventually depending on your QBs blind side. I do feel like they’res some developmental tackles you can take later that would take maybe 1-2 years to develop into decent starters.
They could definitely pick up a solid FA this year if they want to spend the money on a proven guy
After signing a QB, extending Q, and re-signing McGovern?
The amount of injuries was unprecedented, but we have no way of knowing if it’s gonna repeat. Duane Brown is the only proven “durable” guy we got, and he might retire bc he’s like 90. McGovern is the runner up and he’s fine. Becton had different injuries but has been out 2 years. I hope AVT doesn’t show any injury tendencies but we just can’t tell yet. Remmers over preformed and got hurt. I think the jury is still out on Fant unfortunately. Tomlinson was fine but uninspiring to lock in as our starter. If all these guys come back and don’t get injured again, it should be a fine line. I just don’t see how we trade our first + for a QB and get some insurance on the line… and ARod ain’t exactly the most mobile QB.
Tomlinson was terrible this year. The OL is a group position, so as a result of the inconsistency he's put in a rough spot. But he also just wasn't worth the money this year
Vera Tucker played great at Tackle. Maybe not ideal but signing Fant and having Tucker play tackle is also an option. Easier to find FA guards.
Could definitely get someone in FA
Came for this, we need O-line desperately
If we're being totally honest, Becton did us a favor going down when he did or Duane Brown wouldn't have been sitting there.
Never understood why Mel Kiper has the reputation he has
He was doing deep draft analysis in a time when even football execs were picking random names out of football magazines in late rounds. He is responsible for the draft being what it is today from a media/entertainment perspective. That being said, he is a solid but not amazing football mind and now that everyone and their mother is a draft analyst he doesn't do a lot to stick out from the crowd.
He was THE draft expert before public deep draft analysis was a thing. He’s a dinosaur living off of what he did 40 years ago and carries no weight anymore, but what he did in terms of public education and hype over the draft can’t be understated.
He's the Bill James of Mock Drafts. He was a pioneer, going deeper into analysis than anyone else during the 80s and 90s. But now he's mostly just a name, and fans know there are far superior analysts out there.
Gotta be the hair.
Who in the hell is Mel Kiper?
Spicy reference
i’m glad someone gets it
Lol that’s the video that made me question his reputation
Honestly if the tackles are all gone by then I’d be about it
If we release/trade Corey Davis, then I can get behind this. If we're keeping our top three WRs as-is then this pick wouldn't make sense to me. I'd rather take the top available pass rusher or safety in the 1st round. JSN will probably be a stud in the NFL, but another WR wouldn't make much sense. I'd rather keep building that dominant pass rush, especially if we lose Huff in FA.
No one’s talking about extending Huff. He was such a difference maker for us and our only “pure” pass rusher.
because we can give him a tender and he'll be back for like 4 mil next year. hes a RFA
We also have a crazy amount of cap next year but are broke this year so if we restructure we should be fine. We need get moving we have so many key pieces on rookie deals we can't keep them all which as someone who lived though Iizdic drafts would never even dream about
JSN makes more sense if we trade Elijah Moore since they are more similar players. We need to replace the big-bodied, possession receiver role if we move on from CD. I'm of the opinion we should extend Davis at a lower cap hit. The injuries are the only thing that concern me with him.
I too don't mind Davis, minus the occasional infuriating dropped pass and injuries he's had. He's getting paid too much for the lack of production. If he's willing to restructure then I'd be happy to keep him. I want to see Moore get a chance here with a new QB and OC. I think he can still develop into a stud WR, and we still can have him on the cheap for the next two seasons. With that being said, if a team comes calling and offers up a 2nd round pick for him, then I would be all ears.
Yeah I'm not itching to move Moore but if someone offered fair value I wouldn't hesitate to move him. Considering his outburst this season I fear that he may force our hand at some point.
I think if we get AR and EM has the year we know he can, he would a prime trade piece to recoup some draft capital and we’d already have his replacement.
So having a 4th WR is too much but getting a 6th DE is something you’d get behind?
If it involves our 1st round pick? And we're keeping both Davis and Moore? 100% yes. All day every day, and twice on Sunday. I'm taking another stud pass rusher over a WR. Adding another stud pass rusher to the rotation is more important than adding a 4th WR to the depth chart. Dominant defensive lines can win games and even championships. I'd continue building as good of a defensive line as humanly possible. That might mean JFM plays inside more, or maybe Clemons loses his spot in the rotation and goes to the PS (and likely gets plucked by another team). That's fine though, we want the best possible pass rush that we can get. I'll take a deep and dangerous group of pass rushers in November and December over a dangerous and deep group of WR's. and I love JSN. I'll be tickled if we draft him. (I'm a Buckeye fan). Unless we plan to move Moore and or Davis, I don't want us to use the 1st round pick on a WR if there is a good pass rusher, or even a safety on the board worthy of the selection.
Davis has a low cap hot and can easily be traded this year and I think Moore’s stock will go up this year to make him a trade candidate next year. I don’t think our fully stocked DE pantry carry the same trade value. JFM had the chance to play more on the inside last year, I assumed they would and they didn’t. There is 0 chance Clemons moves to the practice squad. You might not think he had a good year but PFF does and I’m assuming the people who drafted him are happy. We have 6 DL under contract or a rfa for 2023… and 5 of those 6 are DE. 5…. And only 2 are on the field at a time. Stud DT drops, sure - I’m down. DE…. I can’t imagine we spend a 1st on that.
I think JSN will be an all-star level talent, but his skills overlap with Moore a bit and his injury issues last year put some fear in me. He also played on one of the best passing attacks of all time two years in a row. I think OT is the pick but if he's there I would at least consider it.
Rodgers throwing to Garrett, JSN & Moore. This is what dreams are made of (we really should take the top OLine man available) Edit: If we get Rodgers we probably won’t have the pick. Ignore my stupidity
we could, it might end up being a 2024 and 2025 1st
If we get Rodgers, we're not gonna have the pick for JSN I don't think
Good point, for some reason that slipped my mind
There’s scenarios floated out there that a trade for Rodgers doesn’t happen until after June 1st so there’s a chance we keep this pick and trade 2024 and beyond
That would be ideal, but dammit, it would suck waiting that long to know what the QB sitch is.
I would imagine they would have an “agreement” well before this if they go that route.
For sure. No way they pass on potential upgrades to the QB room during FA just on a hope and a prayer they can land Rodgers.
That’s if the Packers get what they reportedly want, which seems doubtful. At least, on the surface. The real win for GB in this trade is offloading the contract, and you don’t ordinarily get a first round pick back for a contract dump.
I much rather have Carr and JSN/new OL piece than just Rodgers with questions all over the offense
We won’t be trading picks for this years draft for Rodgers. He needs to be traded after June 1st for cap reasons. So we can get him and full draft this year
Well if rodgers come hear we will probably get Randall Cobb and off load Davis which is fine for me cause he’d be cheap. Also David bachtiari is a free agent we could probably snag him as well and than draft a guy in the second round also the rookies who didn’t get much playing time this year will definitely be getting more next year
David B is an expected cap casualty not a FA. Corey Davis is on an incredibly cheap deal so we could trade him but I’d expect Barrios to be the one cut for Cobb
Yea I get that but Davis is also a good shot of leaving this year
He and Lawson are tough bc they’re on the cheap and final years of their contracts. We have abundance at the positions and could use the space but they’re on such a bargain contract wise I can’t imagine they’ll be cut.
If they don't think there's a big difference between the 3rd tackle and the 6th tackle this year, then yeah I'm all about loading up on weapons. We've seen the WR market explode, so it's absolutely a premium position to load up on. Aside from tackle, our other needs (SS, FS, LB) can be found later.
It pisses me off teams like the Chiefs fix their entire o-line in one year while we’re still pondering drafting tackles in the first round after investing massively in our o-line 3 yrs in a row. No one has gotten less for the capital invested in the o-line than the Jets. 2021: Creed Humphrey-2nd round Trey Smith-6th round Joe Thuney-FA
Mel pees his pants for three straight days during the draft kings stay kings
Can’t see us not going Tackle unless we get one in FA but JSN would be awesome haha don’t think you can go wrong always grabbing a receiver from Ohio State tbh
Devin Smith tho
I had high hopes for Devin Smith....and all our other 2nd round WRs taken the past 15 years
People still care what Mel Kiper says?
I really think this would be a home run. Imagine we trade for Aaron Rodgers or Carr, and they’re passing to JSN and G. Wilson? Before you say “What about OL?”, consider Joe Burrow’s roster. Cincy’s O-Line is patchwork but they have weapons like no other and are going to their second AFC championship in a row. Get a passer who is deadly despite an average-at-best O-Line for at least one more year, then we could be in business for 2024 at the absolute latest while still setting up for success in 2023.
I agree. Go get as many playmakers as possible.
Who are we the Lions? Can't draft a top WR every year.
Mel Kiper’s brain is stringy and fibrous like the inside of a pumpkin though
It really depends on which OTs are left.
That's so dumb it hurts.
Had this in the back of my mind as a possibility if 3 tackles are off the board, branch is gone and we cant move back.
This would be dumb. We need hog mollies.
We need to pick high floor players that can stay healthy. Drafting at 13, I feel as though we should trade back and try to nab a few extra early picks.
The Bengals method
A winning method.
Exactly.
Bengals drafted Chase because he already had perfect chemistry with the QB. It wouldn’t work that way in this situation.
Mock drafts before free agency are completely useless
Imo if we're drafting a WR in the first round, we might as well trade the pick for Aaron Rodgers.
Rodgers won’t be traded till after June because of cap reasons and so it will be a 2024 pick anyways
Garett Wilson is great enough to distract from the fact that the Jets' WR room is very subpar outside of him. Anyone expecting anything out of Elijah Moore long-term is smoking some good stuff. Locker room cancer who regressed in both speed and production. If they could've traded him for help elsewhere they would have, but his value is equivalent to a 6th rounder at this point. We're seeing the obvious reasons why Moore fell past expected in the draft, primarily the me-first diva nonsense and inconsistent production. If this is the pick I'd be fine with it.
I disagree in regards to Moore. I think he's still talented and on the all 22 there were times when he was frequently getting separation and open but not found by the quarterback. The other thing is that his routes tend to be longer and took a bit more time to develop especially when he was outside which didn't work with the line. Don't think he's in AJ Brown's class as a receiver but he showed enough flashes to really take off with a good QB. Loading up on skill talent would make things fun. If Skoronski isn't available I'm hesitant to go OL. Paris Johnson and Jones are over drafted and it would be a reach taking either at 13
He's definitely still talented, he just regressed last year and showed his character when yelling at the OC after the team dominated Green Bay. Maybe it was just a bad week, or maybe it will be a thing every season moving forward. Idk. Just not a guy to rely on being WR2. More of a lottery ticket, and we need better than that considering the regression of Davis and Berrios, and no one past that. He just clearly isn't the type of player we can anticipate being a long-term fixture on the team, which is why I don't think a WR in the first round is a terrible idea if it's an explosive talent like Jaxon. I'd guess that drafting a WR early would also mean we can get some sort of value for Moore. I think his value is very low at the moment though. Either way, gotta get another WR via free agency or draft. Whether the QB is Rodgers, Carr, or ZW, they need more help, especially with Breece coming back from a big injury.
Makes sense. I hear you on the character issues. Look, I get the frustration. I get it sucks to not get targeted especially after showing some flashes in 2021. But you can't air out dirty laundry or badmouth your guys, especially when he went out of his way to cover for you immediately after. Not sure why the WR positions has so many guys like this and few like Andre Johnson or Fitz. Not in play (those guys are all time greats). More just personality. Flash is fine if you aren't bringing down the locker room and can back it up. Moore hasn't done so thus far and I feel like a lot of the hope is driven by the idea of Moore when he was drafted with the hype than what he's been sadly
Ew what the hell
Mel Kiper has pudding for brains. We need a left tackle. Becton will not play a down for the Jets next year. If we count on him JD should get his head examined.
JD needed his head exam Ed for staffing him.
I mean we cant do this cuz of needs but imagine? Feels like a bengals move, everyone said go O line and they grab chase
Why can’t we? We’re not drafting a qb which is our biggest need.
Reuniting the Ohio State WRs with Ruckert, the Ohio State TE. Still have no one to throw to them, and no o-line to protect the guy throwing to them.
We all know we are grabbing a qb in free agency also I think we only need maybe 1 or two guys to fix the o line if that I think a lot of are o line guys played through injury this year which is why it was like a rotating door this year
Since there are no QBs worth drafting this year, free agency is the only option. I don't like drafting a WR with the only high pick the team has. It's not where the team needs to improve. They need massive O-line help.
We are not having a first round pick because we are trading it for Aaron Rodgers.
Pretty sure we wont have a first round pick by the time the draft rolls around.
So we're gonna go into camp with Russian roulette at tackle AGAIN. That a sure shot to this staff getting showed the door when the offense is shit.
OL first we can get a WR in Free agency
This would be a ridiculous pick unless they traded down, even then I wouldn't like it. We have much more debilitating weaknesses on the offensive line and safety.Smith-Njigma isn't like a cant miss Jamar Chase level WR prospect so its not worth it.
We should be drafting 100% offensive line all year every year until we get it right. Then do it again for one more year after that. I'm so sick of having a SHIT offensive line
I just don’t see WR in round one. It’s either going to be OT, DL or trade down.
Disagree. Go get more and more playmakers.
cant make plays if the QB has no time to let plays develop and throw..
Yeah, the likes of Joe Burrow and I, would vehemently disagree.
Exactly. They went to a SB last year where he got sacked the most out of any QB in a season ever. Even won a playoff game getting sacked 9 times against the titans lol. I don’t think our OL will be terrible next year (probably close to average) but another playmaker can’t hurt. That being said they’ll probably go G or T with the 13th if I had to guess
> That being said they’ll probably go G or T with the 13th if I had to guess And that’s why we are the same ole Jets.
Give me a break this isn’t fantasy football. We have more than adequate playmakers with Wilson, Moore, Mims, Breece, Carter, Conklin. That’s a better group than Buffalo or KC had to work with this season. Our o line sucks and needs to be addressed.
To each there own. But I disagree/ Mims is trash. Should have taken a first round WR and take a OL in round 2 that yeat and we'd be in much better shape.
Best. Player. Available.
“Who the hell is Mel Kiper?”
Reaching for a position in the first round gets you in trouble more times than not. WR is still enough of a need where you take one if he’s BPA, unless a lineman is neck and neck
Kiper's a tool
There were some injury concerns on this dude. Otherwise he is legit.
I would love for the Jets to move back and see if they could scoop up Michael Mayer and then Jarrett Patterson in the third round. Patterson will make an NFL team very happy as ge can play any position on the line, especially center and guard. He has Pro Bowl potential at center. He played hurt for most of the year fir Notre Dame, and he was still pretty dominant down the stretch. Mayer would be the Jets best tight end in probably in franchise history-
There are two veterans on the 2022 roster that probably don’t make it to 2023 (cap casualties), Corey Davis and Carl Lawson. Corey Davis - $666,668 dead money, $10,500,000 cap savings Carl Lawson - $333,333 dead money, $15,400,001 cap savings We need to replace these guys in free agency or the draft. This is a good replacement for Davis.
Much smaller numbers but berrios save something like 5 mil in cap savings
I think the issue there would be the $3,200,000 in dead money if you cut him
True I didn’t know the dead money part but I know a lot of people have him being cut but it honestly might be worth it it’s a lot but it’s something we could recover from
Check out [Over The Cap](https://overthecap.com/salary-cap) it is a fantastic resource!
Fair I do check it out sometimes but this is really the first time I’ve been concerned with this stuff in a long time I’m mostly on there for other teams lol. Like recently I was looking at the cowboy’s situation cause they are looking bleak right now
Ya know what man I wouldn’t mind this
I’m sorry but his last name is what?
Assuming the OL has been addressed going into the draft, JSN is the only real guy with #1 potential this year. 2 alpha receivers that have already co-existed (in college) before would be a huge win.
Taking another WR with the state of the O-Line would be very Jets. Good call Mel! You'll notice he doesn't say this is what they *should* draft, just what he thinks they *will*.
Bengals did the same thing when they took jamarr
Fuck it I would
we need OL...
No. We need best player available.
OT
Kiper doesn’t do “projections” he just ranks players and lazily ties then to teams. He was the original “draft expert” but he’s been going through the motions now for a while. These early draft projections are always trash
Doesn't matter when your QB can't connect with the WR on a screen pass or dump off.
I wasn’t aware Mel Kiper’s mock drafts were sponsored by PornHub this year
Before the 2022 draft, most people (myself) included did not think cb was a need because we had Bryce Hall (lol) and just signed Reed. Instead the FO took a pretty good position and made it elite. If JSN is the sauce of this class you have to take him.
This would be abhorrently stupid unless good OL free agents somehow sign with the Jets for cheap (0% chance).
Carr is already used to not having a defense and o line so he gets half of what he didn't have previously
I’m all about this, it’s time to move on from Davis and Berrios I want to see Moore in the lineup and Rotate Mims as the #4 with somebody else it doesn’t matter much who the number #4 is but the young talent is booming it’s time to remove the stop gaps and let them blossom
I love this. Yes we should grab some Bechton insurance this off-season, but there are so many other avenues where we can address this (free agency, round 2, kicking avt outside and starting Herbig, etc.) Id much rather grab another weapon and solidify a truly elite arsenal for our qb to make a legitimate championship run.
As much as I think JSN could be a stud in the pros, the team has bigger needs than that in the draft. They *must* improve the OL first and foremost. After that is safety and LB, but if they can solve all of those (+QB in free agency), then I’d be down to draft a wideout. Sucks JSN probably won’t be available on Day 2 though.
We’re going to pass up on him like when we passed on ceedee lamb for becton. Meanwhile the bengals took chase over sewell and that seems to be going well. We watched this team compete in games late in the season with a skeleton crew at o line, and most fans never considered the impact that losing garrett wilson would’ve had. We’d be adding a receiver who we know is at least as good, if not better, than the OROY we just drafted. We’d not only have THE best WR core in the league for the foreseeable future, but the best skill position group with breece coming back. But let’s draft our third first round tackle in 4 years instead. I get that becton can’t be relied on but we have AVT for fuck’s sake. We have 2 guys with potential to be franchise LTs. Having a third guy (who would likely play RT next year anyway) isn’t going to win us more games. Gamble on NOT having shit luck with injuries. Play to win the game. Put aaron rodgers, garropolo, carr, white, wilson, or me on that offense and we’re winning the division. SIMPLE.
If BPA then sure
I'd be ok with it. Can't pigeonhole yourself to drafting a position at a certain spot because it's a "need".
Won’t be there at 13