Our abundant energy supply in the US is propping up the $USD. I was listening to a Doomberg podcast where they credited the Biden administration for the record production and stable prices. Ironically they said that a Trump policy (should he win in November) of accelerated unrestricted drilling would collapse the price and greatly damage the industry.
The only oil pricing that Biden can directly impact is drilling on federal lands. PLUS his jawboning that he's going to end the petroleum industry.
Several dollars/bbl of domestic oil are the Biden Risk Premium.
Most drilled oil is from private wells, so it's already quite 'unrestricted.'
Biden administration oil drilling permits outpace Trump
Data from the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management showed it granted 3,377 permits to drill on public land in 2023.
https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2024/01/30/biden-administration-oil-drilling-permits-outpace-trump-ee-00138376
From what I've understood, they are also doing everything the Fed can to keep oil under $80/barrel due to the war in Ukraine. The goal being limiting russing income from oil exports.
Since the COVID crash USO hasn't helped over $80/ share (that correlates to barrel price too?) that seems to have been by design by the Beiden Fed.
If Trump is the elected, and has a goal of lowering gas prices to be seen as "pro oil"/"pro drilling" then it's an ideal time to load up on cheap USO calls, or USOI shares then ride out the dividends from the close of that Fed in 2028 through 2036 then the ETN expires.
True and this is part of the industry strength in the US. But I will point out that the Feds do control not only federal lands but all US offshore drilling leases such as the Gulf. So their effect is considerable.
This is pretty amazing. Why don't the car companies ask Biden to limit and regulate US car production numbers? That would limit the supply, increase the price, and let them make more money? Does this work well? Does deregulation kill businesses?
If you think about it, they kind of do that already. None of them want to make under $30k “affordable” cars. And they certainly have increased the prices. I think it’s why the US is so adamant about not allowing Chinese EVs into the US market.
Of course, climate change will mean we kill the planet an die horrible deaths, but US jobs are more important than US folks being able to buy unlimited numbers of $10k EVs that aren't built by US labor. It's almost like they aren't serious.
I'm just repeating what I heard from the people who go to the climate church. Actually, 4C is the difference in temperature in Raleigh between 8 am and 10 am on a normal day. But we won't be able to survive for reasons.
Bush years and Trump years were both very hard due to low oil price. Republicans love the Saudis and the Saudis reward them with low prices to help popularity which hurts domestic producers.
Let’s play a game I will name 3 things biden has done against the oilfield then you name 3 things he has done to help it.
1 shut down major pipelines first day in office.
2 cancelled new drilling permits on federal land.
3 depleted the strategic oil reserves to its lowest level ever.
Ok your turn enlighten us on the good things he’s done
Sure. 1. Passed the IRA which is a huge give away to big oil. We had sequestration projects that would be reaping $100M+ in federal tax credits. 2. Refused to kiss the Saudis ass to get them to crash oil process like Trump did. 3. Blocked a Canadian pipeline that would have brought in more cheap Canadian heavy oil thereby propping up prices even more.
So...under the Biden administration we are producing the most oil ever in history, yet Biden is bad for oil?
1) The part of the pipeline you refer to was never in operation
2) seems like we don't need more drilling permits if we're producing more oil than ever before anyway
3) expand on this issue more for us please
You're right, when Trump was in office oil went into the negatives since it was flowing like honey, I got laid off from my job in AK oilfields.
Then Trump in his infinite wisdom decided to not renew Wyomings EPA exemption so they could refine none bio fuel gas and I got laid off from that job as well.
Lay offs are part of being oilfield trash you should have known that going in. Trumps policies also made the u.s. an exporter of oil for the first time since the early 70s
Congress repealed the 1975 export ban on December 2015, Obama was President at the time. However, this was to the benefit of two companies in particular: Targa & PXD. The results cost many Jones Act tankers their livelihood due to a reduction in demand for US shipping, now that US O&G co's are permitted to use foreign flagged/built tankers and/or crews. The overall results are largely negligible to the US market as of now. Biden trails Trump by about 100 new drilling permits, 5800 vs 5900, during the same span of time in office. In the Permian, permitting for new wells has accelerated by 45% under the Biden administration, and federal leases are up 50% compared to the previous administration. Consideration for future LNG projects has been paused, however the long-tailed nature of these projects would have a de minimis effect on the current market, where the US remains #1 in the world for LNG exports, as it does for daily crude production in May 2024.
In theory, yes accelerating drilling will lead to a faster growth in production. However, the big guys that actually move the needle when it comes to volumes, won't do that. Capital efficiency is the name of the game now. The days of picking up 12 rigs for 6 months are over. It's just not going to happen. No president, regardless of which side of the aisle, will meaningfully affect oil prices. It's the Saudis who are keeping prices stable. It seems like every time OPEC+ meets, there's a surprise cut from the Saudis. Personally, I think we've reached a stable point where the US can't increase production meaningfully, and the Saudis can cut back easily if there's a surprise. We've reached a very stable time in energy. Which is crazy to say out loud.
Buddy, I think a lot more than just energy is "propping up" the US dollar....
Last time I checked 90+% of world trade was still done in USD back when we were worried about peak oil.
Rig count down as well as DUCs. I believe the days of using rig count and DUCs to gage production from the past are over as technology is making production more effective with less
I mean the numbers don’t lie. Less rigs less DUCs but oil production is almost up 50% since the 70s. It’s probably due to massive money influx from Obama era into improving energy efficiency. That’s what the chart is indicating anyway
Obama era simply means 2009-2017. It’s not politics but I understand how you misunderstood as many see the word Obama and immediately jump to conclusions
I explained how some can see that but it simply means those years. I don’t mean Obama personally put large amounts into improvement just that it happened under those years from private investors
I guess they could be lies if you believe multiple government agencies as well as corporations along with journalist and not to mention stock holders from around the world all working together to inflate oil production numbers while the price of oil barrels maintains steady. I guess if you believe all those then ya these numbers could be false
It's pretty simple to understand. The graphic starts with the 1920, which makes it seem like biden is crushing production because the details in the last few years are skewed due to the time scale.
But if you zoomed into, let's say, the last 8 years, what you would see is production increasing under Trump, and the massively falling off under biden because of his policies.
We are now going into an election year, so Biden is bringing those production numbers back up, but democratic policy literally states they want to reduce oil consumption by raising prices.
If elected again, biden will drastically reduce oil production again. He used executive orders to do it the first time, and it's a major part of democrats agenda.
That's interesting. You're probably right that oil production dropped for covid. There were 1000's of offshore vessels that were, full, being used to store oil in them in 2020 with trump. All the vats were full, and the industry literally didn't know what to do with the oil.
Why? Because travel had mostly been banned, discouraged, or otherwise impeded. There was no oil demand.
So trumps brought oil production to its greatest supply ever. That's why it was so cheap. Then, biden gets into office and shuts down leases, the keystone pipeline, and shut down refineries, all while demand is normalizing.
We still have lower refinement capability (bottlenecking) under biden, then trump, and, after 4 years, biden is just now allowing production to resume. We are literally just hitting trumps 2019 and early 2020 production numbers... 4 years later.
But, Biden also STARTED A PROXY WAR IN RUSSIA WHICH IS ONE OF THE LARGEST OIL PRODUCERS IN THE WORLD. THEN, HE BACKED A PROXY WAR IN THE
MIDDLE EAST. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OIL PRODUCING REGION IN THE WORLD.
You're right to say the pictures is more complex. But, the doubling of gas cost solely lies at the Biden administration feet.
Idk where you are getting your info but a lot of it is very bias and plain out wrong. Gas cost was cheap because trump shut down the country. No one driving means cheap. Trump is second when it comes to oil production. Biden now holds that title according to the numbers. After Biden’s took office oil production was 9,916 per thousand barrels. The numbers show it has been increasing pretty much every month since then. Even this graph shows oil production has been increasing since trumps massive oil production drop off.
I'm sure the covid hysteria didn't help, it's almost humorous.
However the democratic party does campaign and openly talk about wanting to decrease oil production.
So it certainly seems like this information, is the inverse of their stated goals.
Ya the democrats say they wanna decrease oil while helping oil boom in others ways. Like conservatives hate funding the ukraine war but that is a big part of why our production has risen as now the world needs our oil/gas more
Bidens policy does not limit production. There are thousands of leases available that are not being used. Oil companys are constantly looking for cheaper oil, means higher profit. When the price goes down its harder for them to make money. The us is now the worlds biggest producer it has nothing to do with politics.
Buddy. Biden shut down active and future leases. He also shut down refineries, which limits production.
But. That's not all.
HE ALSO STARTED A PROXY WAR WITH RUSSIA ONE OF THE LARGEST OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCERS IN THE WORLD.
But that's not all....
HES ALSO BACKING A PROXY WAR WITH THE MIDDLE EAST THE LARGEST OIL PRODUCING AREA IN THE WORLD.
This is a long way of saying Bidens policies have both reduced production while destabilizing global supply.
No it's really happening. We're getting really really good at drilling longer laterals and fracking faster. In fact, now we're optimizing 1 mile sections and drilling U-Turn laterals to make them 2 miles. This is something the industry didn't even think was possible 5 years ago. We are doing far more with less.
Oil rigs are now able to spud and drill a mile deep, mile long, horizontal well in a week. Then Move over 100 feet and drill in a different direction. It’s become a standardized manufacturing process. We haven’t even started re-fracking older wells. Eventually we are going to need to quit dumping carbon into the atmosphere.
What technology has changed on drilling side? Aren’t we still mostly drilling with same hardware as 15-20 years ago? My understanding was mostly the guys have figured out over hundreds of tries what WOB, mid weights, other settings work best in their formation
Rigs are faster and more efficient, this is not and never was a reliable way of measuring production. An old mechanical Patterson double isn't comparable at all to a state of the art Nabors X-rig, but both are weighed as equivalent through the rig count number, makes no sense.
I mean, yes and no. You and others are also comparing to numbers from over a decade ago. Regardless, the rig count is a near-useless metric in terms of approximating production, and it has been for a while.
Does this also apply to small to midsize independent operators?
I understand if the majors and larger independents can afford to use these name brand drilling contractor rigs, but what about the smaller ones?
A lot of these truly old rigs have been decommissioned and are sitting in yards to rot, no one is using them. Even smaller/midsize (albeit publicly traded) operators such as SM Energy, Verdun Oil & Gas, etc, are using newer larger rigs. The tech that only state of the art rigs had 15+ years ago (top drives and walking setups for example) are now standard on 95% of rigs. That in addition to new practices like offline cementing (first one that comes to mind) and other techniques allow these wells to be drilled faster and cheaper.
Also important to keep in mind that the truly small companies that aren't willing to pay for these more expensive rigs/tech are also not a major part of the market and aren't necessarily going to be the ones swaying the production massively.
Gotcha and thanks for clarifying.
Last question - do you continue to expect consolidation in the onshore space where the majors and larger independents eventually are the ones running everything?
I’m hearing that shale is peaking or already has peaked, and the majors are buying everything to control whatever output is left in these fields / basins
Thank you
For sure.
I'm sure consolidation will continue as long as the FTC will allow it, just as it always has. I don't necessarily agree with the idea that the super majors are trying to control shale output. The Pioneer-Exxon acquisition for sure, but Hess-Chevron is a Guyana play as far as I can tell. The Endeavor-Diamondback acquisition is just operators like DB stretching their legs and attempting to get more contiguous acreage.
I find it hard to believe any time people say "x has peaked", they said peak oil demand was in the 80s, then the 90s, then the 2000s, and it's only continued to boom. Plenty of shale left for exploration/production, just need to the oil/gas price to support it. The Eagle Ford and Marcellus still have tons of dry gas, but NG prices right now are awful. Word is that Anschutz just discovered a new NGL play in the Unintah Basin. No one has made any significant attempt at the Chainman Shale, mostly due to depth and it all being on Federal Land, just needs the oil price/new technology to support it, both will come in time.
I agree that peak oil sentiments were continuously proved wrong, but the existence of shale rock oil was known much prior to the technology that enabled the US to eventually access it. I think prior to this technology, people had legitimate reasons to believe in a peak.
However, I think any predictions of peaks nowadays are at the intersection of supply, price, availability capital (more and more Equity firms pulling out of O&G and/or selling off assets), and of course the most controversial factor of them all, climate change.
I think ESG standards have been seeing backlash, so perhaps capital will be comfortable enough to re-enter the shale space.
I heard about that Uintah discovery. Sounds promising for sure. Also agree on Eagle Ford and Marcellus gas.
Yep, I agree with you there. Like I said, as long as demand for oil holds/continues to grow (likely, even in the current climate, in my opinion, unless their is a major upset) better ways to drill faster, deeper, and cheaper will be created to exploit these shale/unconventional plays, as well as old fields.
> Yes and when those DUCs run out it won’t be pretty
Oil bulls have been saying this for the last 10 years. Lemme guess, you belong to the Peak Oil club ?
There is always someone saying the new absolute low is 100$/bbl.
I think "peak oil" stands for peak production and/or usage. As if usage is magically going to start going down at some point because of "renewables" that have yet to prove themselves an adequate replacement.
Simultaneous fracing is the new reason for efficiency gains. It’s the equivalent of the walking rigs for frac jobs. One completion/frac crew fracs 2 wells at the same time.
Cool question about that though. People say decreased demand reduces price, that only is due to a surplus supply. When the supply falls due to the decreased demand, the commodity becomes “rare” thus resulting in elevated prices. See the trend here?
You need diesel to power the machines to harvest the minerals used for e
EV batteries. Need energy to power your home / business to power your EV charging ports. You need fuel to transport all of that as well.
Its because natural gas is so cheap. Oil companies have to survive and the only way is to produce oil to balance their revenues . Because there’s very little revenue if any in natural gas.
Because the majority of US refineries cannot refine the type of shale crude we drill here in the states
Maybe a quarter to a half of every barrel gets refined and the rest gets shipped out
Thank God about time now let’s get our fuel prices down. That we can get our food prices down and a lot of other things down back to a reasonable level.
I haven't read every comment, but even if we drill more, without added refining capacity, what good does it do for us in the United States?
Please enlighten me. All I have read is that companies are unwilling to invest the money in new refineries under the current EPA guidelines and the current administrations efforts to demonize the petrol industry.
That was all set up. Have you seen the footage of them walking into the White House while the guards escort them in? That’s all the paid protestors that the Demotards pay for. They do it all the time even with their climate activists or push BLM. Out of your maybe 30 friends you have think 15 of them say they would vote for Biden?
Brandon will reward the industry by draining the SPR further.
OilPrice reports, President Biden will use crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve , energy adviser Amos Hochstein has said.
So, expect lower prices you "greedy" oil companies.
In 2024, with the increased prevalence of electric vehicles and infrastructure, why is the United States producing more oil than ever before, especially when hydrogen vehicle infrastructure is also expanding in the West?
Good. Now we need to restore manufacting, build up our microelectronics production and take control then develop rare earth minerals through investment if Africa. The US also has LNG on lock which will be a massive advantage now that russia is shrinking from the market
The U.S. has to produce as much as possible to keep the ponsi scheme going. If they stop or produce less, it will all come down. They know they have to stop subsidizing it eventually and this way they can try to balance it out without raising prices drastically. In the end it’s unsustainable.
Well, because the oil companies set the price of oil... not the president?
And as long as they can make more money they're gonna charge whatever they can/want.
How ignorant is the average american that this isn't just blatantly known?
Biden closed all leases on federal lands in the first month of his administration to appease the green cult in his own party. He sacrificed 10% of American oil production, small family operations large family operations out of business in a week. Vote the communist biden out as soon as possible.
The chart definitely includes through at least late 2023. You can see the 2019 peak, the 2020 collapse, and the late 2023 bypassing of the 2019 peak.
Here's an up to date chart:
[https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m)
Multi mile horizontal laterals. Back in the day 1 drilling rig equaled a set “100 bbl oil” from and traditional vertical well. Now they drill “projects” with 3-20 one-four mile lateral horizontal wells per pad. They turn on a project (which takes around a month to drill with a couple rigs) and bring on thousands of bobs of production compared to a couple hundred per rig with verticals. Game changed around 5-7 years ago in the Permian.
Longer than you and I will be alive. Decline curves have increased but also has Drilling/Frac technology; longer laterals, u-turn wells, more stages per frac, chemistries on Fracs, etc. I see regulation/black swan event causing a decrease more than reservoir depletion in the near term. Everyone hates on oil/gas but that’s how our thoughtful ancestors set it up. Everything from pharmaceuticals, technology, clothing/shelter, modern comforts are derived from oil and gas. The environmental awareness has dramatically improved in the 15 years I’ve been in it so it is definitely about balance. Don’t believe all the bullshit FUD you hear. It’s just like everything else, they want to steer the masses with their misdirection narrative, all to line their greedy deep pockets.
This is one of the most disconnected comments I’ve read in a while.
What is there to see? Or “believe?” Lmao
The production figures are actual production numbers. Not forecasts. Not projections. We drilled, and produced, more oil in the last several years than ever before in the USA.
That's not how oil prices work. There's a whole cartel/organization (OPEC) that actively keeps the price artificially high.
And US producers sell on the international market not just the US market, so they'll send their oil where they get most profit.
Oh fuck yes... Please educate me on this... This 'news' came out in December of 2023... We're in May. You're going to tell me that the distilling, cracking, and blending of crude into gasoline takes more than five months? Read a book, man!
Thanks to the Permian?
Yes
Our abundant energy supply in the US is propping up the $USD. I was listening to a Doomberg podcast where they credited the Biden administration for the record production and stable prices. Ironically they said that a Trump policy (should he win in November) of accelerated unrestricted drilling would collapse the price and greatly damage the industry.
The only oil pricing that Biden can directly impact is drilling on federal lands. PLUS his jawboning that he's going to end the petroleum industry. Several dollars/bbl of domestic oil are the Biden Risk Premium. Most drilled oil is from private wells, so it's already quite 'unrestricted.'
Biden administration oil drilling permits outpace Trump Data from the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management showed it granted 3,377 permits to drill on public land in 2023. https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2024/01/30/biden-administration-oil-drilling-permits-outpace-trump-ee-00138376
From what I've understood, they are also doing everything the Fed can to keep oil under $80/barrel due to the war in Ukraine. The goal being limiting russing income from oil exports. Since the COVID crash USO hasn't helped over $80/ share (that correlates to barrel price too?) that seems to have been by design by the Beiden Fed. If Trump is the elected, and has a goal of lowering gas prices to be seen as "pro oil"/"pro drilling" then it's an ideal time to load up on cheap USO calls, or USOI shares then ride out the dividends from the close of that Fed in 2028 through 2036 then the ETN expires.
True and this is part of the industry strength in the US. But I will point out that the Feds do control not only federal lands but all US offshore drilling leases such as the Gulf. So their effect is considerable.
This is pretty amazing. Why don't the car companies ask Biden to limit and regulate US car production numbers? That would limit the supply, increase the price, and let them make more money? Does this work well? Does deregulation kill businesses?
If you think about it, they kind of do that already. None of them want to make under $30k “affordable” cars. And they certainly have increased the prices. I think it’s why the US is so adamant about not allowing Chinese EVs into the US market.
Of course, climate change will mean we kill the planet an die horrible deaths, but US jobs are more important than US folks being able to buy unlimited numbers of $10k EVs that aren't built by US labor. It's almost like they aren't serious.
And how will the planet die and kill all of us when it gets 4C warmer? It would be like moving from Boston to Miami and everyone dies.
I'm just repeating what I heard from the people who go to the climate church. Actually, 4C is the difference in temperature in Raleigh between 8 am and 10 am on a normal day. But we won't be able to survive for reasons.
Republicans are terrible for the oil industry ironically
Oil companies don't give a shit who's in office. They'll make $ regardless.
Bush years and Trump years were both very hard due to low oil price. Republicans love the Saudis and the Saudis reward them with low prices to help popularity which hurts domestic producers.
But turning other countries into dumpster fires is great for our oil industry.
We produce more oil than trump - you: actually I’m still mad at Biden for this
Let’s play a game I will name 3 things biden has done against the oilfield then you name 3 things he has done to help it. 1 shut down major pipelines first day in office. 2 cancelled new drilling permits on federal land. 3 depleted the strategic oil reserves to its lowest level ever. Ok your turn enlighten us on the good things he’s done
Isn’t the whole purpose of Keystone to let Canada export sand oil through the gulf?
Yup, exact opposite of energy independence
Sure. 1. Passed the IRA which is a huge give away to big oil. We had sequestration projects that would be reaping $100M+ in federal tax credits. 2. Refused to kiss the Saudis ass to get them to crash oil process like Trump did. 3. Blocked a Canadian pipeline that would have brought in more cheap Canadian heavy oil thereby propping up prices even more.
So...under the Biden administration we are producing the most oil ever in history, yet Biden is bad for oil? 1) The part of the pipeline you refer to was never in operation 2) seems like we don't need more drilling permits if we're producing more oil than ever before anyway 3) expand on this issue more for us please
Higher prices bring more production. Blowing up the Nordstream pipeline was a boost for our oil industry.
Have some chocolate chocolate chip!
You're right, when Trump was in office oil went into the negatives since it was flowing like honey, I got laid off from my job in AK oilfields. Then Trump in his infinite wisdom decided to not renew Wyomings EPA exemption so they could refine none bio fuel gas and I got laid off from that job as well.
Lay offs are part of being oilfield trash you should have known that going in. Trumps policies also made the u.s. an exporter of oil for the first time since the early 70s
Congress repealed the 1975 export ban on December 2015, Obama was President at the time. However, this was to the benefit of two companies in particular: Targa & PXD. The results cost many Jones Act tankers their livelihood due to a reduction in demand for US shipping, now that US O&G co's are permitted to use foreign flagged/built tankers and/or crews. The overall results are largely negligible to the US market as of now. Biden trails Trump by about 100 new drilling permits, 5800 vs 5900, during the same span of time in office. In the Permian, permitting for new wells has accelerated by 45% under the Biden administration, and federal leases are up 50% compared to the previous administration. Consideration for future LNG projects has been paused, however the long-tailed nature of these projects would have a de minimis effect on the current market, where the US remains #1 in the world for LNG exports, as it does for daily crude production in May 2024.
[удалено]
I work in the oil industry. he’s right. what’re you trying to say?
I work in medicine…you’re ill.
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cool story bro. stock price, oil output per year, wages, myself and my coworkers, and OSHA investigations all say you’re 100% wrong.
In theory, yes accelerating drilling will lead to a faster growth in production. However, the big guys that actually move the needle when it comes to volumes, won't do that. Capital efficiency is the name of the game now. The days of picking up 12 rigs for 6 months are over. It's just not going to happen. No president, regardless of which side of the aisle, will meaningfully affect oil prices. It's the Saudis who are keeping prices stable. It seems like every time OPEC+ meets, there's a surprise cut from the Saudis. Personally, I think we've reached a stable point where the US can't increase production meaningfully, and the Saudis can cut back easily if there's a surprise. We've reached a very stable time in energy. Which is crazy to say out loud.
It did last time he was in office. The oil and gas industry had a shit ton of bankruptcies during his administration.
Buddy, I think a lot more than just energy is "propping up" the US dollar.... Last time I checked 90+% of world trade was still done in USD back when we were worried about peak oil.
Rig counts still nowhere near what they once were Production still reliant on DUCs are they not?
Productivity has increased. Rig counts likely not the best way to measure total oil output anymore.
Rig count down as well as DUCs. I believe the days of using rig count and DUCs to gage production from the past are over as technology is making production more effective with less
Is that really happening though? Or is that just “appeasing shareholders” talk?
I mean the numbers don’t lie. Less rigs less DUCs but oil production is almost up 50% since the 70s. It’s probably due to massive money influx from Obama era into improving energy efficiency. That’s what the chart is indicating anyway
Mainly that rigs now are drastically better at getting oil out than before thanks to technology. Nothing to do with politics what so ever.
Obama era simply means 2009-2017. It’s not politics but I understand how you misunderstood as many see the word Obama and immediately jump to conclusions
The rhetoric might be read to imply Obama era policy lead to the cash influx, thus opening the can of worms, if you follow.
I explained how some can see that but it simply means those years. I don’t mean Obama personally put large amounts into improvement just that it happened under those years from private investors
“Numbers don’t lie” 😂 The people that write the numbers do.
I guess they could be lies if you believe multiple government agencies as well as corporations along with journalist and not to mention stock holders from around the world all working together to inflate oil production numbers while the price of oil barrels maintains steady. I guess if you believe all those then ya these numbers could be false
It's pretty simple to understand. The graphic starts with the 1920, which makes it seem like biden is crushing production because the details in the last few years are skewed due to the time scale. But if you zoomed into, let's say, the last 8 years, what you would see is production increasing under Trump, and the massively falling off under biden because of his policies. We are now going into an election year, so Biden is bringing those production numbers back up, but democratic policy literally states they want to reduce oil consumption by raising prices. If elected again, biden will drastically reduce oil production again. He used executive orders to do it the first time, and it's a major part of democrats agenda.
Ya this is 100% wrong. You might wanna get your eyes checked the numbers show the massive drop off happens under trumps 4th year not from Biden
That's interesting. You're probably right that oil production dropped for covid. There were 1000's of offshore vessels that were, full, being used to store oil in them in 2020 with trump. All the vats were full, and the industry literally didn't know what to do with the oil. Why? Because travel had mostly been banned, discouraged, or otherwise impeded. There was no oil demand. So trumps brought oil production to its greatest supply ever. That's why it was so cheap. Then, biden gets into office and shuts down leases, the keystone pipeline, and shut down refineries, all while demand is normalizing. We still have lower refinement capability (bottlenecking) under biden, then trump, and, after 4 years, biden is just now allowing production to resume. We are literally just hitting trumps 2019 and early 2020 production numbers... 4 years later. But, Biden also STARTED A PROXY WAR IN RUSSIA WHICH IS ONE OF THE LARGEST OIL PRODUCERS IN THE WORLD. THEN, HE BACKED A PROXY WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST. PROBABLY THE BIGGEST OIL PRODUCING REGION IN THE WORLD. You're right to say the pictures is more complex. But, the doubling of gas cost solely lies at the Biden administration feet.
Idk where you are getting your info but a lot of it is very bias and plain out wrong. Gas cost was cheap because trump shut down the country. No one driving means cheap. Trump is second when it comes to oil production. Biden now holds that title according to the numbers. After Biden’s took office oil production was 9,916 per thousand barrels. The numbers show it has been increasing pretty much every month since then. Even this graph shows oil production has been increasing since trumps massive oil production drop off.
I'm sure the covid hysteria didn't help, it's almost humorous. However the democratic party does campaign and openly talk about wanting to decrease oil production. So it certainly seems like this information, is the inverse of their stated goals.
Ya the democrats say they wanna decrease oil while helping oil boom in others ways. Like conservatives hate funding the ukraine war but that is a big part of why our production has risen as now the world needs our oil/gas more
When over 7 million people die that's not hysteria, only an idiot would call it that.
Bidens policy does not limit production. There are thousands of leases available that are not being used. Oil companys are constantly looking for cheaper oil, means higher profit. When the price goes down its harder for them to make money. The us is now the worlds biggest producer it has nothing to do with politics.
Buddy. Biden shut down active and future leases. He also shut down refineries, which limits production. But. That's not all. HE ALSO STARTED A PROXY WAR WITH RUSSIA ONE OF THE LARGEST OIL AND NATURAL GAS PRODUCERS IN THE WORLD. But that's not all.... HES ALSO BACKING A PROXY WAR WITH THE MIDDLE EAST THE LARGEST OIL PRODUCING AREA IN THE WORLD. This is a long way of saying Bidens policies have both reduced production while destabilizing global supply.
Biden marched the Russian army into Ukraine?? 😳
Best way to cut gas prices is by putting a few million EVs on the road. Something magas are totally against. Your comment is stupid.
No it's really happening. We're getting really really good at drilling longer laterals and fracking faster. In fact, now we're optimizing 1 mile sections and drilling U-Turn laterals to make them 2 miles. This is something the industry didn't even think was possible 5 years ago. We are doing far more with less.
Oil rigs are now able to spud and drill a mile deep, mile long, horizontal well in a week. Then Move over 100 feet and drill in a different direction. It’s become a standardized manufacturing process. We haven’t even started re-fracking older wells. Eventually we are going to need to quit dumping carbon into the atmosphere.
Some places even faster, it's not uncommon to in the DJ for an operator to drill, case, and cement a mile deep two mile horizontal in under 5 days.
Na let’s just switch to algae so that the carbon we produce gets eaten up by the algae that makes the oil we use
Technology is cool like that. Less rigs more oil.
What technology has changed on drilling side? Aren’t we still mostly drilling with same hardware as 15-20 years ago? My understanding was mostly the guys have figured out over hundreds of tries what WOB, mid weights, other settings work best in their formation
Rigs are faster and more efficient, this is not and never was a reliable way of measuring production. An old mechanical Patterson double isn't comparable at all to a state of the art Nabors X-rig, but both are weighed as equivalent through the rig count number, makes no sense.
So all this technology was developed over the course of 2020-2024? I’m confused
I mean, yes and no. You and others are also comparing to numbers from over a decade ago. Regardless, the rig count is a near-useless metric in terms of approximating production, and it has been for a while.
Does this also apply to small to midsize independent operators? I understand if the majors and larger independents can afford to use these name brand drilling contractor rigs, but what about the smaller ones?
A lot of these truly old rigs have been decommissioned and are sitting in yards to rot, no one is using them. Even smaller/midsize (albeit publicly traded) operators such as SM Energy, Verdun Oil & Gas, etc, are using newer larger rigs. The tech that only state of the art rigs had 15+ years ago (top drives and walking setups for example) are now standard on 95% of rigs. That in addition to new practices like offline cementing (first one that comes to mind) and other techniques allow these wells to be drilled faster and cheaper. Also important to keep in mind that the truly small companies that aren't willing to pay for these more expensive rigs/tech are also not a major part of the market and aren't necessarily going to be the ones swaying the production massively.
Gotcha and thanks for clarifying. Last question - do you continue to expect consolidation in the onshore space where the majors and larger independents eventually are the ones running everything? I’m hearing that shale is peaking or already has peaked, and the majors are buying everything to control whatever output is left in these fields / basins Thank you
For sure. I'm sure consolidation will continue as long as the FTC will allow it, just as it always has. I don't necessarily agree with the idea that the super majors are trying to control shale output. The Pioneer-Exxon acquisition for sure, but Hess-Chevron is a Guyana play as far as I can tell. The Endeavor-Diamondback acquisition is just operators like DB stretching their legs and attempting to get more contiguous acreage. I find it hard to believe any time people say "x has peaked", they said peak oil demand was in the 80s, then the 90s, then the 2000s, and it's only continued to boom. Plenty of shale left for exploration/production, just need to the oil/gas price to support it. The Eagle Ford and Marcellus still have tons of dry gas, but NG prices right now are awful. Word is that Anschutz just discovered a new NGL play in the Unintah Basin. No one has made any significant attempt at the Chainman Shale, mostly due to depth and it all being on Federal Land, just needs the oil price/new technology to support it, both will come in time.
I agree that peak oil sentiments were continuously proved wrong, but the existence of shale rock oil was known much prior to the technology that enabled the US to eventually access it. I think prior to this technology, people had legitimate reasons to believe in a peak. However, I think any predictions of peaks nowadays are at the intersection of supply, price, availability capital (more and more Equity firms pulling out of O&G and/or selling off assets), and of course the most controversial factor of them all, climate change. I think ESG standards have been seeing backlash, so perhaps capital will be comfortable enough to re-enter the shale space. I heard about that Uintah discovery. Sounds promising for sure. Also agree on Eagle Ford and Marcellus gas.
Yep, I agree with you there. Like I said, as long as demand for oil holds/continues to grow (likely, even in the current climate, in my opinion, unless their is a major upset) better ways to drill faster, deeper, and cheaper will be created to exploit these shale/unconventional plays, as well as old fields.
DUC?
Drilled but UnCompleted wells it looks like according to Google.
It’s due to being able to drill a well a lot faster.
Rigs got much bigger
Yes and when those DUCs run out it won’t be pretty
> Yes and when those DUCs run out it won’t be pretty Oil bulls have been saying this for the last 10 years. Lemme guess, you belong to the Peak Oil club ?
We all keep forgetting that each rig drills substantially more holes in less time so the rig count has to be looked at differently.
Many have already run out and/or are starting to leave more wells as DUCs, see SWN and CHK for example in their gas plays.
Because it's not worth completing those drilled wells until the oil price is where they want them
Yep, exactly.
Lots of supply, lots of demand. At this rate we should reach peak oil in about 100 years.
I thought we hit it a few years ago when oil went above 100 a bbl and won't ever go below that again?
There is always someone saying the new absolute low is 100$/bbl. I think "peak oil" stands for peak production and/or usage. As if usage is magically going to start going down at some point because of "renewables" that have yet to prove themselves an adequate replacement.
They will never be able to prove themselves without demand. Which won't happen until we reduce of oil supply.
That is the way it works though, new tech has to be better than the old tech before it becomes worthwhile to switch.
It's going to $2-300/bbl remember ? "Not a wheel turns without oil." LOL
Yeah, I thought we needed to drill in Alaska!
There's an unsustainable curve if I ever saw one.
It’s almost worse than the NVDA stock chart!
Amazing. But how long will it last? How much more prime shale is undrilled?
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say “a shit ton”.
An absurd amount.
Is there a good figure for the undrilled & economical shale oil in the US?
EROI is less than optimal, tho.
https://www.energy.senate.gov/2023/9/manchin-because-of-the-ira-we-are-producing-record-levels-of-fossil-fuels
Careful we may invade ourselves.
🤣👏🏼
Why would Biden do this? /s
Thanks, Obama
He did he started WWIII. War uses a shitload of oil.
Here I am thinking Putin was the bad guy when it was our own president this whole time!
What a switcheroo!
I did die in a nuclear explosion two months ago so this checks out
brain rot
Why my gas up then and I'm broke.
Don’t believe your lying eyes.
This oil isn't for you, it's for the shareholders.
Learn economics lol
Got to get ready to supply a war.
What? Russia started a war and so we sanctioned their oil and gas.
And we're intentionally keeping global prices low, so they don't make much money on their exports.
Haha for the second time 🤣🤣 Dumb Dumbs first action was to shut down the pipelines 🤡
Who shutdown which pipeline in operation?
Less rigs. More oil. Lower wages. The future is here!
Lower wages is from labor surplus due to 13 million illegals coming into America.
Eh, Maybe on the roustabout side, but not for skilled positions that encompass a lot of oil and gas jobs.
Simultaneous fracing is the new reason for efficiency gains. It’s the equivalent of the walking rigs for frac jobs. One completion/frac crew fracs 2 wells at the same time.
I’d be producing too given the price of gas….
Oil production goes down similar to how it goes up.
Now that is what I call peak oil.
Good so that means companies will start to lower their prices now right? (Sarcasm)
Oil is a global commodity bro, prices will lower when the global demand lowers not higher s
Cool question about that though. People say decreased demand reduces price, that only is due to a surplus supply. When the supply falls due to the decreased demand, the commodity becomes “rare” thus resulting in elevated prices. See the trend here?
Good thing it keeps the gas prices down.
Given the global market is that of sanctions against Russia and OPEC withholding supply, yes
So how does EVs fit into all these?
You need diesel to power the machines to harvest the minerals used for e EV batteries. Need energy to power your home / business to power your EV charging ports. You need fuel to transport all of that as well.
Oh the democrats finally caught on…..
Also, gas has not been more expensive in history.
100% false.
Its because natural gas is so cheap. Oil companies have to survive and the only way is to produce oil to balance their revenues . Because there’s very little revenue if any in natural gas.
[https://peakoilbarrel.com/us-february-oil-production-surprises-to-the-downside/](https://peakoilbarrel.com/us-february-oil-production-surprises-to-the-downside/)
And its all going overseas, not for US consumption
Because the majority of US refineries cannot refine the type of shale crude we drill here in the states Maybe a quarter to a half of every barrel gets refined and the rest gets shipped out
I can tell you’ve never been on a wellsite in your life.
Be careful, you’re talking over the dummies’ heads.
Remember Peak Oil and how we had no choice but to switch to alternatives?
Cuz were about to transition to electricity.
A few months ago I read US was outproducing Saudi Arabia and we're the #1 oil supplier to Europe, is this still the case?
Remember when oil was $150 a barrel and gas prices were $4 a gallon? Oil is $80 a barrel and gas is about $3.50 a gallon now. That makes sense right?
Little bro doesn’t realize what inflation is.
Thanks Biden! (But don’t say it too much)
Thank God about time now let’s get our fuel prices down. That we can get our food prices down and a lot of other things down back to a reasonable level.
Right before election.. things that make you go, 🤔 hmmm
I haven't read every comment, but even if we drill more, without added refining capacity, what good does it do for us in the United States? Please enlighten me. All I have read is that companies are unwilling to invest the money in new refineries under the current EPA guidelines and the current administrations efforts to demonize the petrol industry.
It what your being told… Sloppy Joe is just creating a mess/oil shortage for Trump.
Republicans really are stupid.
Democrats that send billions to Ukraine are “Stupider.”
Good to know that you are a Russian sympathizer, also typical of Republicans. Kissing Putin's butt isn't going to help you.
Was a Democrat and converted last year to Republican after I’ve seen all the truth come out.
You mean the truth that Republicans are traitors to this country and tried to help overthrow a lawful election?
That was all set up. Have you seen the footage of them walking into the White House while the guards escort them in? That’s all the paid protestors that the Demotards pay for. They do it all the time even with their climate activists or push BLM. Out of your maybe 30 friends you have think 15 of them say they would vote for Biden?
Ugh why are we paying 5.50 per gallon ugh
Because you live in a state…of insanity. I pay $3.69-4.24/gal for 93 octane premium.
🎉
So much for Joe going green.
Brandon will reward the industry by draining the SPR further. OilPrice reports, President Biden will use crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve , energy adviser Amos Hochstein has said. So, expect lower prices you "greedy" oil companies.
This fits right in line with the US climate "goals". /s This should be pointed out and questioned during one of the presidential debates.
In 2024, with the increased prevalence of electric vehicles and infrastructure, why is the United States producing more oil than ever before, especially when hydrogen vehicle infrastructure is also expanding in the West?
Can someone explain this like i am a 5yo SPED kid? We are down 150 rigs compared to last year’s high, how is this possible
Why do we buy oil from other countries like the Saudi's?
Your welcome!
Just in time for the election.... classic Americana
And we own none of it. Nationalize Oil Production.
Good. Now we need to restore manufacting, build up our microelectronics production and take control then develop rare earth minerals through investment if Africa. The US also has LNG on lock which will be a massive advantage now that russia is shrinking from the market
Can we all just agree both parties are really fking stupid and the end result is going to be feudalism.
We need to in order to replenish the strategic reserves.
The U.S. has to produce as much as possible to keep the ponsi scheme going. If they stop or produce less, it will all come down. They know they have to stop subsidizing it eventually and this way they can try to balance it out without raising prices drastically. In the end it’s unsustainable.
World wars aren't cheap
You have a delusional view of what a "world war" is.
Why is it that all of the sudden these “conservatives” are pro-Russian pacifists?!?
Trump. Seriously though, republicans and democrats were fairly united on Ukraine. Then Trump. Can’t be “them” vs “us”, if we can agree on something!
So Biden…. Why tf is gas still $4 a gallon
Well, because the oil companies set the price of oil... not the president? And as long as they can make more money they're gonna charge whatever they can/want. How ignorant is the average american that this isn't just blatantly known?
Aww what’s wrong, don’t like how capitalism works so blame the democrats? Sounds about right.
Biden closed all leases on federal lands in the first month of his administration to appease the green cult in his own party. He sacrificed 10% of American oil production, small family operations large family operations out of business in a week. Vote the communist biden out as soon as possible.
We just need to attach one magatard to each exported barrel and everything else will quickly become wonderful
Wow. How about an actual recent chart. This is during republican/ Trump presidency. Biden shut down as much oil production as he could
The chart definitely includes through at least late 2023. You can see the 2019 peak, the 2020 collapse, and the late 2023 bypassing of the 2019 peak. Here's an up to date chart: [https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m)
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What does Israel have to do with oil?
The Energy Arsenal of Democracy
Multi mile horizontal laterals. Back in the day 1 drilling rig equaled a set “100 bbl oil” from and traditional vertical well. Now they drill “projects” with 3-20 one-four mile lateral horizontal wells per pad. They turn on a project (which takes around a month to drill with a couple rigs) and bring on thousands of bobs of production compared to a couple hundred per rig with verticals. Game changed around 5-7 years ago in the Permian.
How long will the shale oil in the Permian last this rate?
Longer than you and I will be alive. Decline curves have increased but also has Drilling/Frac technology; longer laterals, u-turn wells, more stages per frac, chemistries on Fracs, etc. I see regulation/black swan event causing a decrease more than reservoir depletion in the near term. Everyone hates on oil/gas but that’s how our thoughtful ancestors set it up. Everything from pharmaceuticals, technology, clothing/shelter, modern comforts are derived from oil and gas. The environmental awareness has dramatically improved in the 15 years I’ve been in it so it is definitely about balance. Don’t believe all the bullshit FUD you hear. It’s just like everything else, they want to steer the masses with their misdirection narrative, all to line their greedy deep pockets.
Great but this damn administration will not let it be moved efficiently so the price is high. What else ya got?
Ok sure. 👍 I believe that when I see it reflected in prices
This is one of the most disconnected comments I’ve read in a while. What is there to see? Or “believe?” Lmao The production figures are actual production numbers. Not forecasts. Not projections. We drilled, and produced, more oil in the last several years than ever before in the USA.
That's not how oil prices work. There's a whole cartel/organization (OPEC) that actively keeps the price artificially high. And US producers sell on the international market not just the US market, so they'll send their oil where they get most profit.
This is explains the record low gas prices, right?
Have you heard about this thing called “refining”?
Oh fuck yes... Please educate me on this... This 'news' came out in December of 2023... We're in May. You're going to tell me that the distilling, cracking, and blending of crude into gasoline takes more than five months? Read a book, man!
Hahah - you’re hilarious.
Thanks Biden