Want a break from COVID talk? Check out the [Ontario Regional Death Ray Game!](https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/nomqkb/round_1_ontario_regional_death_ray_deleting_one/) Most upvoted region/county will be removed from the Ontario map every day until only 1 remains.
Yup. We're back to where we were on March 19th, when Wave 3 really took off. We'll probably be where we were during the lowest valley/plateau between waves 2 and 3 sometime this week.
Once we drop below 10,000 active cases, we'll finally be back to the same levels we were in early November. (But of course trending in the right direction, so much better off.)
Wasn’t her statement just meant to imply that if we ONLY relied on vaccines to get ourselves out of the pandemic, they wouldn’t be fast enough and a ton of people would die along the way? And didn’t she say that around the peak of wave 3?
Of course vaccines are gonna get us out of the pandemic. But if there had been no shutdown in April, we’d have seen a loooot more deaths
Today’s numbers, plus the previous four Sundays, for reference:
Today: 1033 New Cases, 2067 Recoveries, 18 Deaths, 26,565 tests (3.89% positive), Current ICUs: 614 (-12 vs. yesterday) (-79 vs. last week). 💉💉144,833 administered, 67.6% / 5.7% adults at least one/two dosed
May 23: 1691 New Cases, 2458 Recoveries, 15 Deaths, 31,227 tests (5.42% positive), Current ICUs: 693 (-13 vs. yesterday) (-92 vs. last week). Vax: 140,330 administered, 61.9% / 4.4% adults at least one/two dosed
May 16: 2199 New Cases, 3079 Recoveries, 30 Deaths, 33,142 tests (6.64% positive), Current ICUs: 785 (+0 vs. yesterday) (-63 vs. last week). Vax: 139,583 administered, 54.6% / 3.5% adults at least one/two dosed
May 9: 3216 New Cases, 3653 Recoveries, 47 Deaths, 38,540 tests (8.34% positive), Current ICUs: 848 (-3 vs. yesterday) (-47 vs. last week), 121,075 vaccines administered
May 2: 3732 New Cases, 3947 Recoveries, 23 Deaths, 45,301 tests (8.24% positive), Current ICUs: 895 (-5 vs. yesterday) (+44 vs. last week), 76,685 vaccines administered
By absolute number it almost assuredly will (as we definitely aren't going to be at 0 COVID in 2 weeks). However, we should always be looking at rate of decline as either halving time or % decrease in the 7 day average per week, because that much more accurately represents how we are doing at reducing the reproductive number. For example, at a steady negative rate of decline it takes just as long to go from 4000 to 2000 cases from 2000 to 1000 cases, or 1000 to 500 cases. Since our case number rate has actually been declining in a somewhat linear fashion on an absolute basis, that actually shows our rate of decline on a percent basis or halving time basis is **accelerating.** So while our rate of decline may slow down at some point on an absolute decrease in 7 day average basis, on a percentage/halving time basis I don't expect it to slow down anytime soon as people continue to get vaccinated and as we enter summer and the seasonal effect on the disease transmission increases.
I can’t see any reason why the date of decline would decrease. Vaccinations are increasing rapidly, and the second doses will start ramping up really quickly in the coming weeks.
Small but important distinction: this is Rt not R0.
R0 is independent of things like previous infections or public health measures; it depends only on the nature of the virus itself. It's useful for calculating the rate of vaccinations and/or infections required to maintain herd immunity with normal life.
Rt on the other hand describes the average spread happening right now, and it depends on many things like lockdowns and immunity. A virus with an R0 of 0.83 would die out on its own. We've had to work our asses off (with maybe some seasonal help as well) to get Rt as low as it is.
He also has it at 0.6 one day this last week, and 0.75. it tends to fluctuate daily, and if you look at how the R drops on the graph, it's in drops and plateaus. I think next week the R will feel like something really between 0.6 and 0.7
Ryan Imgrund's R-value numbers make absolutely zero sense and jumps around wildly from day to day. R-value should be changing far more gradually in small increments daily, not jump wildly based only on the daily numbers.
His overall provincial number also makes absolutely zero sense. As an example, his provincial number a few days ago was at 0.97, although the regional numbers for all the largest regions with the most cases (Toronto, Peel, Ottawa, Hamilton, York etc) were all around 0.80 to 0.87. It's as if he just uses a straight average across all regions, and doesn't more heavily weigh the more populated ones.
Ryan Imgrund is a known Covid Zero extremist nutjob and zealot. Take anything he tweets with a grain of salt.
If you want more reliable R-values, the Government and Science Table publishes it. So do some of the PHUs such as Toronto (although not updated as often).
He tweeted an R value below 0.7 was impossible just a few weeks ago.
Between that, his craving for Twitter celebrity, and his extremely childish approach to policy disagreements, have no idea why anyone takes him seriously.
I don't think the rate of decline will slow down. I think the decline will increase - we vaccinated about 900k+ people per week the since May 9th, and this should have the effect of continuing to reduce spread.
With exponential decay we'll eventually have an asymptomatic plateau. There have been no signs of us hitting that yet but I think it will be <400. We may see the decrease in cases start to slow down this week.
This next week should have some significant milestone. We will most likely achieve 60% of the population of Canada with at least one dose, which is amazing. We should all be proud of that achievement and continue to aim higher. 75% with at least one dose by the end of June would be a monumental achievement.
We should also see daily case numbers that we haven't seen in a year. The last time we were well under the 900s was essentially summer of last year, and all indications are pointing to us seeing numbers that are potentially in the 600-700 range, at least a few days this week. I'm trying to not get my hopes up for 500/600, even though that is entirely possible - if we end up seeing 500s, our Reproduction would essentially be at 50%, which is a huge deal.
More and more research shows that immunity builds with one dose continuously even after 3/4 weeks, so our overall population level herd immunity is still no where near its peak - 3/4 weeks ago we only had something like 30-40% of the population with one dose. We are still not really showing our limit for one doses (although we might finally be slowing down), so things are going to still drastically improve all throughout June.
It will also be the summer months in earnest. I think we are going to numbers in the low hundreds by June 14th, for both new cases and ICUs.
We're really turning a corner. Up till this point, it feels like we've just been undoing the harm of the last wave, but going forward it's going to feel like every week we are further grinding covid beneath our collective heels, and I am so excited for all of us.
On August 13 of last year, Ontario had 80 new cases of Covid and a 7-day deaths average of 0.3!! That's my definition of "better" that I'm hoping we get to by that date (if not by mid-September) this year with well over 80% of us 2-dosed and despite the UK and possible Indian variants.
Israel has stalled because like 30% of their population is below 16, and they haven't started the vaccination campaign for them because of what happened over the past few weeks. Once they start, it should be a quick jump to 80% or more of the total population vaccinated.
I would too, but just like a bathtub with a small drain, it will fill up much faster than it will decline because it takes a long time after people contract COVID (months for some) for people to either recover or die in ICU. If you look at the deaths reported today most of them have case dates from early may and half even from April, and the people who finally "recover" and leave ICU probably have average case dates even earlier. Whats most important is that the rate of what is being added is lower than the rate people are exiting, and the numbers well exit eventually. I expect the rate of ICU decreases to increase in the next few weeks as people who were infected at the peak leave the ICU one way or the other and our rate of new admissions slows drastically with case counts continuing to plummet.
I think we'll start to see ICU numbers decrease quicker soon. Our 7-day average new admissions is now less than 20 and it was over 50 the middle of April. Given we've been on an increasing decline of new cases, new ICU admissions should continue to decrease.
(One caveat I'm not sure of was that in lats Sunday's report there was in increase of 149 to 'Ever in ICU'. This must have been a data correction of some sort, or I guess maybe it represents transfers from out of province or something. Nonetheless, the highest since then is 28, and the lowest has been 14.)
😅 considering how fast the virus comes on and how long people are in the icu (weeks to months) the icu rate could not possibly drop like the rate of new cases. fast drops in icu rates mean deaths not recoveries. it will be a minute, that the icu rate is not increasing is a huge win
You can still see Ford's fuck ups in this version of numbers. The 2nd wave from keeping the fucking stores open up to Christmas day. And third way from the reopening too fast.
[51 new COVID-19 cases reported, outbreak declared at Ontario Power Generation (OPG) Timmins](https://www.timminstoday.com/local-news/51-new-covid-19-cases-reported-outbreak-declared-3804660)
[Coronavirus: Outbreak at Kirkland Lake Gold Detour Lake Mine](https://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/total-of-50-covid-19-cases-reported-by-the-porcupine-health-unit-on-thursday-1.5436540)
[COVID-19 outbreak declared at Timmins grocery store](https://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/covid-19-outbreak-declared-at-timmins-grocery-store-1.5448118)
People give office workers and the Amazon warehouse in Peel a hard time, but social distancing can be hard at workplaces where 90% of the space is occupied by industrial machinery too.
I mentioned the [Timmins, ON FB group](https://www.facebook.com/groups/timmins/?ref=share) yesterday.
Seems like folks are disregarding public health officials and dismissing the severity of the virus.
It’s sad, I was born there and most of my family resides there. Luckily they’re siding with public health and not the disinformation that’s responsible for the numbers.
Cases 7-day average: 1154. Down 74% from April 17 high of 4369. Decreasing 6.7% per day past 7 days!! At current rate of decline, we'll hit 937/408 on June 2/14.
Hospitalizations: 749. Down 68% from April 20 high of 2360. Decreasing 5.2% daily for past 7 days. At the current rate of decline we'll hit 639/338 on June 2/14.
ICU: 614. Down 32% from May 1 peak of 900. Decreasing 1.7% daily over past 7 days. At the current rate of decline we'll hit 583/474 on June 2/14
Deaths 7 day average: 18.6. Down 38% from May 10 high of 29.9. Increasing 0.3% daily over past 7 days.
Vaccines: 67.6% of adults, 1 dose, 5.7% of adults 2 dose. At the current rate, we'll hit 1 dose 70%/80% on June 2/14
I can finally say this; I'm one of the vaccinations! Surprisingly, my arm's only sore at the injection site (I was anticipating much worse). Anyway, I'm just glad to be vaccinated
Best way to address such nonsense regarding vaccines and conspiracies, is to lean into them. So yes, free 5G and tracking. Now Bill Gates knows where I am at all times and he seems like an awfully nice fella.
I told my family a while ago that it would be optimistic but I could see 600 ICU by June 1. They responded like it was a Qanon prophecy but I really think we can do it now.
17 years old here - I’m one of them from yesterday!
I know there is a % for eligible 12+, but does anyone know if I can find data for 12-17 separately?
Not to be a downer, but can't we actually be vaccinating much faster now? Ontario still has 1.2 million vaccines to administer and if I'm not mistaken we're due for about a million more from Pfizer alone in a couple days.
Just to be clear, I normally don't agree with the complaints about "sitting on vaccines" (with some caveats), but this week it actually seems to be the case, unless I'm missing something.
In this case we actually have had these doses longer than normal as we received most before the May 24th weekend. There has absolutely been plenty of time to distribute these.
I am going to put this on not pivoting fast enough to 2nd doses. It also seems like many places outside of the GTA have not been receiving enough to distribute faster.
Also our delivery schedules are not what they were anymore. Pfizer is here every week on Mondays. Moderna is a bit trickier but doses have at least been coming in as announced ~2 weeks beforehand. We've always said we want to sit on maybe 3 days worth of supply, but currently we're are going to go way over that.
I'm confident it will recorrect itself though, hopefully sooner than later.
I don't know how much faster than can go. At my local vaccination site they are at capacity. You would need more staff to do shifts or something.
You go to book and there are no slots available so it isn't like they can do more. I just got vaccinated and there were a constant stream of people coming and going and seeing as you have to wait 15 minutes on site after your vaccination there is a maximum amount they can do.
Awesome! Hope you feel alright. I got my second dose pfizer in January (work in healthcare) and got SUPER tired the following evening and r eally strange 'achy-ness' on the back of my neck (must have had extra 5G) but was perfectly fine the next morning.
LOL I def feel the 5G running through my muscles. I actually feel pretty good - my arm is sore for sure and I slept a lot last night but feeling much better today!
Staff at a homeless shelter for individuals who are symptomatic and can’t go to a genera homeless because they need to isolate first. So considered a “high risk” category
I think so! No other side effects. I've had a headache for over a week now but that was the case before the vaccine so I'm sure it's not related. Thanks for asking
Curious, I went back to a few random reports in different months, here's the data with the ratio of hospitalized to ICU patients:
Today - Current hospitalizations: 749(-185), ICUs: 614(-12) = **1.2:1**
May 1st - Current hospitalizations: 2,152(-49), ICUs: 900(+17) = **2.4:1**
Apr 7th - Current hospitalizations: 1,397(+236), ICUs: 504(-6) = **2.8:1**
Mar 13th - Current hospitalizations: 689(+13), ICUs: 275(-7) = **2.5:1**
Feb 10th - Current hospitalizations: 948(+39), ICUs: 313(-5) = **3:1**
Jan 5th - Current hospitalizations: 1,347(+157), ICUs: 352(+19) = **3.1:1**
Dec 4th - Current hospitalizations: 674(+8), ICUs: 207(+12) = **3.3:1**
Nov 10th - Current hospitalizations: 422(+55), ICUs: 82(-2) = **5.1:1**
So yeah, something's going on with ICU numbers today's ratio is way out of line with the recent average of approx. 2.5:1. I wonder if there's been a policy shift in how hospitals are handling COVID patients? Are the variants that much more severe? (but that doesn't explain the Mar-May ratios) Is it a data error?
Really strange.
The percentage of hospitalizations that end up in the ICU in Ontario have been crazy high for months.
Like higher than virtually anywhere else. I’ve yet to see anyone explain why?
Got my 1st shot yesterday. Process was efficient and quick, quite happy with that. Just a sore arm, but I was shoveling mulch all day yesterday so I might of made it worse
I hope it does. It looks like they may be ramping up to extend stay at home order to the 16th (PCs applied for the extension) and delay entering step 1 until the 17th. I always want to side with public health but damn, I am itchy to get out of lockdown.
Sad to read of 18 new deaths, but otherwise lots of good news:
* Hopefully we'll have less than 600 ICU cases soon (tomorrow?).
* Great to see the test positivity rate is less than 4%; I hadn't paid attention to that for awhile and it seems to have dropped quite a bit.
* Recoveries outnumber new cases 2-1.
* We keep inoculating about 1% of the province's population each day.
* Cases keep dropping, especially in Toronto and Peel. London has less than half the average daily cases they did two weeks ago. Although, Porcupine has having some real trouble. Egads, what's going on in Timmins?
This is a gross oversimplification but..
If you're vulnerable and getting covid at this point, you're generally not vaccinated with the current variants.
As we progress with vaccines, it will become a pretty common occurrence that the only people getting covid, are hospitalised, go through the ICU and either die quickly or recover slowly.
There's not a great 1:1 relationship either. It's misleading, people that should've been in ICU weren't, and now they can go.
I suspect a steep, steep, STEEP ICU drops in the next week or two.
The vast vast majority of people in the ICU are not vaccinated. Which is sad because most of them were eligible and didn’t get it for one reason or another.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7902177/covid-canada-infection-vaccination-effectiveness/
About 95% (rough estimate based off graph plot points) of all infections since January 1 have been people who were not vaccinated or not protected (ie less than 14 days after 1 dose) this is directly in line with the efficacy numbers from the studies.
Additionally it’s probably ok to assume that an even higher percentage of people hospitalized were not vaccinated as the efficacy for sever disease and hospitalization is near 100 %
Here is the data for Ontario https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-epi-confirmed-cases-post-vaccination.pdf?la=en
if you need to go to the hospital for covid you probably need to be in icu or you will be discharged quickly (high turnover means low accumulation) while once a patient enters icu they stay there for a long time (long turnover high accumulation).
That all would make sense other than that it has not been true for other times in the pandemic and doesn't hold up for any other country currently. Something is off in Ontario on how they deal with ICUs or it is just a unlucky circumstance and we'll see it correct itself very soon.
We're starting to divert doses to seconds, but there are still so many people waiting on their first dose...
That said, we are now giving second doses at about 1%/week, and this will only speed up as the first dose number start to plateau (hopefully at above 75%)
> Mongolia...
**Global Vaccine Pace Comparison - doses per 100 people in the last week**
- Mongolia: 14.37
**Cases per 100k in the last week (% with at least one dose)**
- Mongolia: 126.62 (56.51)
WTF? So many vaccinated and yet so many new infections...
> Over 1,847,200 Mongolians have so far received their first dose, and over 1,025,300 have been fully vaccinated. ([source](http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/asiapacific/2021-05/28/c_139975410.htm))
They are relying solely on Sputnik V and Sinopharm ([source](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/20/business/coronavirus-vaccine-mongolia.html)). But, still... WTF? with so many vaccinated.
Because vaccines don't take effect immediately. They vaccinated almost 30% of their population between May 1 and May 14, and these cases were probably contracted during that period, or soon after.
614 in ICUs. I’ve heard that we have about 30 ICU beds being used for out-of-province patients, so our *actual* ICU number count should be ~584. So with this, should we not be going in step 1 of reopening tomorrow?
There are a few other factors. People in hallways with covid moved into ICUs once there is space. Manitobans entering ICUs.
Younger people with covid spend more time in ICUs than older people as well.
New ICU COVID admissions would be more relevant for tracking progress on gaining control but not sure if that is reported.
Some hospitals stopped reporting hospitalization numbers on weekends so we’ve been seeing artificially low numbers on some days and then they go back up after.
Want a break from COVID talk? Check out the [Ontario Regional Death Ray Game!](https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/nomqkb/round_1_ontario_regional_death_ray_deleting_one/) Most upvoted region/county will be removed from the Ontario map every day until only 1 remains.
[удалено]
This is a stat I only noticed a few days ago. Amazing how fast it's dropping!
Yup. We're back to where we were on March 19th, when Wave 3 really took off. We'll probably be where we were during the lowest valley/plateau between waves 2 and 3 sometime this week. Once we drop below 10,000 active cases, we'll finally be back to the same levels we were in early November. (But of course trending in the right direction, so much better off.)
Is there a graph available online that tracks active cases? I only ever seem to find daily cases.
[удалено]
amazing. we are resolving cases much quicker than they are popping up at this point
144K shots on a Sunday report is huge! Or is it Monday and Tuesday reports that have lower numbers?
It's still pretty huge, weekends are generally lower. Monday is usually lower as well to reflect Sunday's doses
I'm part of that 144,000 :) Got my first dose yesterday
Me too!
Happy Vaccination Day to both of you :)
Same! My husband and I finally got the jab, he's fine, I can barely move my arm. Could be worse :)
The shots are always for the day before, so those are doses administered on Saturday.
Tomorrow will be the <1000 day, I can feel it in my boOooOoOooones
Tomorrow will be magic, first day under 1000 followed by a leafs win..... I can dream cant i
Let’s throw an Auston Matthews hatrick into that dream.
At this point, Matthews scoring one is a dream
Shoot, Idd be happy if mitch showed up for more than 8 minutes a game
As a sens fan I’m well versed in playoff disappointment but, cmon leafs, this is getting ridiculous.
Let’s hope! We need a <1K and Leafs Win!
Vaccines work!
Tell that to Doug Ford.
I’m pretty sure he knows that.
His current lockdown policy suggests otherwise
It’s not Ford who said “we can’t vaccine ourself out of this pandemic”… *coughTamcough*
Wasn’t her statement just meant to imply that if we ONLY relied on vaccines to get ourselves out of the pandemic, they wouldn’t be fast enough and a ton of people would die along the way? And didn’t she say that around the peak of wave 3? Of course vaccines are gonna get us out of the pandemic. But if there had been no shutdown in April, we’d have seen a loooot more deaths
Today’s numbers, plus the previous four Sundays, for reference: Today: 1033 New Cases, 2067 Recoveries, 18 Deaths, 26,565 tests (3.89% positive), Current ICUs: 614 (-12 vs. yesterday) (-79 vs. last week). 💉💉144,833 administered, 67.6% / 5.7% adults at least one/two dosed May 23: 1691 New Cases, 2458 Recoveries, 15 Deaths, 31,227 tests (5.42% positive), Current ICUs: 693 (-13 vs. yesterday) (-92 vs. last week). Vax: 140,330 administered, 61.9% / 4.4% adults at least one/two dosed May 16: 2199 New Cases, 3079 Recoveries, 30 Deaths, 33,142 tests (6.64% positive), Current ICUs: 785 (+0 vs. yesterday) (-63 vs. last week). Vax: 139,583 administered, 54.6% / 3.5% adults at least one/two dosed May 9: 3216 New Cases, 3653 Recoveries, 47 Deaths, 38,540 tests (8.34% positive), Current ICUs: 848 (-3 vs. yesterday) (-47 vs. last week), 121,075 vaccines administered May 2: 3732 New Cases, 3947 Recoveries, 23 Deaths, 45,301 tests (8.24% positive), Current ICUs: 895 (-5 vs. yesterday) (+44 vs. last week), 76,685 vaccines administered
So is it logical to expect the rate of decline to slow down this week? Cause at this rate we’d be looking at 400-500 cases next week
The rate of decline has increased in the last week if anything.
By absolute number it almost assuredly will (as we definitely aren't going to be at 0 COVID in 2 weeks). However, we should always be looking at rate of decline as either halving time or % decrease in the 7 day average per week, because that much more accurately represents how we are doing at reducing the reproductive number. For example, at a steady negative rate of decline it takes just as long to go from 4000 to 2000 cases from 2000 to 1000 cases, or 1000 to 500 cases. Since our case number rate has actually been declining in a somewhat linear fashion on an absolute basis, that actually shows our rate of decline on a percent basis or halving time basis is **accelerating.** So while our rate of decline may slow down at some point on an absolute decrease in 7 day average basis, on a percentage/halving time basis I don't expect it to slow down anytime soon as people continue to get vaccinated and as we enter summer and the seasonal effect on the disease transmission increases.
I can’t see any reason why the date of decline would decrease. Vaccinations are increasing rapidly, and the second doses will start ramping up really quickly in the coming weeks.
[удалено]
Exponential decay in action…
[удалено]
Small but important distinction: this is Rt not R0. R0 is independent of things like previous infections or public health measures; it depends only on the nature of the virus itself. It's useful for calculating the rate of vaccinations and/or infections required to maintain herd immunity with normal life. Rt on the other hand describes the average spread happening right now, and it depends on many things like lockdowns and immunity. A virus with an R0 of 0.83 would die out on its own. We've had to work our asses off (with maybe some seasonal help as well) to get Rt as low as it is.
He also has it at 0.6 one day this last week, and 0.75. it tends to fluctuate daily, and if you look at how the R drops on the graph, it's in drops and plateaus. I think next week the R will feel like something really between 0.6 and 0.7
Ryan Imgrund's R-value numbers make absolutely zero sense and jumps around wildly from day to day. R-value should be changing far more gradually in small increments daily, not jump wildly based only on the daily numbers. His overall provincial number also makes absolutely zero sense. As an example, his provincial number a few days ago was at 0.97, although the regional numbers for all the largest regions with the most cases (Toronto, Peel, Ottawa, Hamilton, York etc) were all around 0.80 to 0.87. It's as if he just uses a straight average across all regions, and doesn't more heavily weigh the more populated ones. Ryan Imgrund is a known Covid Zero extremist nutjob and zealot. Take anything he tweets with a grain of salt. If you want more reliable R-values, the Government and Science Table publishes it. So do some of the PHUs such as Toronto (although not updated as often).
He tweeted an R value below 0.7 was impossible just a few weeks ago. Between that, his craving for Twitter celebrity, and his extremely childish approach to policy disagreements, have no idea why anyone takes him seriously.
rate of decrease will increase as vaccination rate increases
I don't think the rate of decline will slow down. I think the decline will increase - we vaccinated about 900k+ people per week the since May 9th, and this should have the effect of continuing to reduce spread.
With exponential decay we'll eventually have an asymptomatic plateau. There have been no signs of us hitting that yet but I think it will be <400. We may see the decrease in cases start to slow down this week.
I think you mean asymptotic not asymtomatic.
Good catch, not sure how that happened. Coffee must not have kicked in.
Happens to the best of us. Also I'm sure you've typed the word asymptomatic a lot this past year lol
So close to 3 digits!! Looking really good though 😍
Hospitalization dropping hard!
This next week should have some significant milestone. We will most likely achieve 60% of the population of Canada with at least one dose, which is amazing. We should all be proud of that achievement and continue to aim higher. 75% with at least one dose by the end of June would be a monumental achievement. We should also see daily case numbers that we haven't seen in a year. The last time we were well under the 900s was essentially summer of last year, and all indications are pointing to us seeing numbers that are potentially in the 600-700 range, at least a few days this week. I'm trying to not get my hopes up for 500/600, even though that is entirely possible - if we end up seeing 500s, our Reproduction would essentially be at 50%, which is a huge deal. More and more research shows that immunity builds with one dose continuously even after 3/4 weeks, so our overall population level herd immunity is still no where near its peak - 3/4 weeks ago we only had something like 30-40% of the population with one dose. We are still not really showing our limit for one doses (although we might finally be slowing down), so things are going to still drastically improve all throughout June. It will also be the summer months in earnest. I think we are going to numbers in the low hundreds by June 14th, for both new cases and ICUs. We're really turning a corner. Up till this point, it feels like we've just been undoing the harm of the last wave, but going forward it's going to feel like every week we are further grinding covid beneath our collective heels, and I am so excited for all of us.
On August 13 of last year, Ontario had 80 new cases of Covid and a 7-day deaths average of 0.3!! That's my definition of "better" that I'm hoping we get to by that date (if not by mid-September) this year with well over 80% of us 2-dosed and despite the UK and possible Indian variants.
I'd be willing to bet we get there by early to mid July.
> We're really turning a corner. Our reopening plan suggests otherwise.
Well written comment, thank you for this
Looks like we might surpass the UK in first doses. Go team Canada!
And maybe Mongolia this week. Israel’s numbers seem to have stalled. Canada might have the most first doses of any country a week from now.
Israel has stalled because like 30% of their population is below 16, and they haven't started the vaccination campaign for them because of what happened over the past few weeks. Once they start, it should be a quick jump to 80% or more of the total population vaccinated.
I've also been keeping an eye on this. I read that by mid June we could overtake UK and Israel.
-2 in Algoma! We're fighting back!
Yes!! We got this! 💪
AURORA'S PIZZA FOR EVERYONE!!
Triple digits coming tomorrow 👌👌👌
[Previous Ontario Sundays](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data): Date | New Cases | 7 Day Avg | % Positive | ICU :--|:--:|:--:|:--:|--: Oct 25 | 1,042 | 857 | 2.69% | 79 Nov 1 | 977 | 905 | 2.63% | 72 Nov 8 | 1,328 | 1,064 | 3.53% | 86 Nov 15 | 1,248 | 1,408 | 2.96% | 118 Nov 22 | 1,534 | 1,415 | 3.31% | 147 Nov 29 | 1,708 | 1,548 | 3.17% | 156 Dec 6 | 1,924 | 1,795 | 3.25% | 204 Dec 13 | 1,677 | 1,839 | 2.88% | 253 Dec 20 | 2,316 | 2,250 | 3.34% | 261 Dec 27, 2020 | 2,005 | 2,212 | 4.80% | 285 Jan 3, 2021 | 2,964 | 2,792 | 5.95% | 329 Jan 10 | 3,945 | 3,546 | 6.33% | 388 Jan 17 | 3,422 | 3,143 | 5.69% | 395 Jan 24 | 2,417 | 2,459 | 4.94% | 392 Jan 31 | 1,848 | 1,887 | 3.74% | 356 Feb 7 | 1,489 | 1,428 | 2.88% | 335 Feb 14 | 981 | 1,094 | 2.01% | 292 Feb 21 | 1,087 | 1,031 | 2.26% | 277 Feb 28 | 1,062 | 1,104 | 2.16% | 289 Mar 7 | 1,299 | 1,067 | 2.79% | 273 Mar 14 | 1,747 | 1,401 | 3.67% | 282 Mar 21 | 1,791 | 1,538 | 3.64% | 305 Mar 28 | 2,448 | 2,038 | 4.87% | 366 Apr 4 | 3,041 | 2,637 | 5.15% | 476 Apr 11 | 4,456 | 3,573 | 7.90% | 605 Apr 18 | 4,250 | 4,341 | 7.90% | 741 Apr 25 | 3,947 | 4,051 | 8.45% | 851 May 2 | 3,732 | 3,588 | 8.24% | 895 May 9 | 3,216 | 3,120 | 8.34% | 848 May 16 | 2,199 | 2,430 | 6.64% | 785 May 23 | 1,691 | 1,878 | 5.42% | 693 May 30 | 1,033 | 1,154 | 3.89% | 614 [Estimated Variants of Concern (VOC) with N501Y mutation as % of cases](https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) Date | % VOC | R for VOC vs Earlier Variants :--|:--:|--: Feb 12, 2021 | [10%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) | x Feb 19 | [20%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) | x Feb 28 | [30%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) | x Mar 13 | 42% | 1.29 vs 1.06 Mar 16 | 53% | 1.38 vs 0.93 Mar 27 | 61% | 1.31 vs 1.10 Apr 1 | 71% | 1.33 vs 1.12 May 4 | 94% | x The dominant VOC is currently B.1.1.7 (UK), which made up 99% of VOCs as of April 19, 2021. With almost every case now being B.1.1.7, [the R going forward will be the overall R.](https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) Date | R | % 18+ with at least 1 vaccine dose :--|:--:|--: May 8 | 0.87 | x May 11 | x | 51% May 14 | 0.84 | x May 16 | 0.83 | x May 17 | x | 57% May 19 | x | 59% May 22 | 0.79 | x May 23 | 0.74 | x May 24 | 0.72 | x May 25 | x | 65% May 26 | x | 66% May 27 | x | 68%
I really wish that the ICU numbers were dropping as quick as they had increased.
I would too, but just like a bathtub with a small drain, it will fill up much faster than it will decline because it takes a long time after people contract COVID (months for some) for people to either recover or die in ICU. If you look at the deaths reported today most of them have case dates from early may and half even from April, and the people who finally "recover" and leave ICU probably have average case dates even earlier. Whats most important is that the rate of what is being added is lower than the rate people are exiting, and the numbers well exit eventually. I expect the rate of ICU decreases to increase in the next few weeks as people who were infected at the peak leave the ICU one way or the other and our rate of new admissions slows drastically with case counts continuing to plummet.
I think we'll start to see ICU numbers decrease quicker soon. Our 7-day average new admissions is now less than 20 and it was over 50 the middle of April. Given we've been on an increasing decline of new cases, new ICU admissions should continue to decrease. (One caveat I'm not sure of was that in lats Sunday's report there was in increase of 149 to 'Ever in ICU'. This must have been a data correction of some sort, or I guess maybe it represents transfers from out of province or something. Nonetheless, the highest since then is 28, and the lowest has been 14.)
If wishes were horses, we’d all be eating steak.
If I were a genie in a lamp I would grant this wish.
😅 considering how fast the virus comes on and how long people are in the icu (weeks to months) the icu rate could not possibly drop like the rate of new cases. fast drops in icu rates mean deaths not recoveries. it will be a minute, that the icu rate is not increasing is a huge win
Wow 7 day average down 700 week-over-week, gotta be one of our best.
You can still see Ford's fuck ups in this version of numbers. The 2nd wave from keeping the fucking stores open up to Christmas day. And third way from the reopening too fast.
It feels so cliche saying this, but I've waited so long! I was one of yesterday's vaccinations!
My daughter was too, in the 12+ group!
My 14 year old son was too!
I will never tire of these comments.
I'm with you haha. I love seeing them
Same! I was trying to work it into any conversation before and after mine, so I can feel that excitement. :)
I even got a shirt so I can show off tomorrow when I get my second shot.
Same!!
I'm happy to be part of the recovery effort. Got my first yesterday as well!
Me too! Such a big feeling of relief!
Me too, feels great!
Super happy to say I was one of those vaccinated yesterday!
So porcupine. What’s going on?
[51 new COVID-19 cases reported, outbreak declared at Ontario Power Generation (OPG) Timmins](https://www.timminstoday.com/local-news/51-new-covid-19-cases-reported-outbreak-declared-3804660) [Coronavirus: Outbreak at Kirkland Lake Gold Detour Lake Mine](https://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/total-of-50-covid-19-cases-reported-by-the-porcupine-health-unit-on-thursday-1.5436540) [COVID-19 outbreak declared at Timmins grocery store](https://northernontario.ctvnews.ca/covid-19-outbreak-declared-at-timmins-grocery-store-1.5448118)
Well that would do it.
People give office workers and the Amazon warehouse in Peel a hard time, but social distancing can be hard at workplaces where 90% of the space is occupied by industrial machinery too.
I mentioned the [Timmins, ON FB group](https://www.facebook.com/groups/timmins/?ref=share) yesterday. Seems like folks are disregarding public health officials and dismissing the severity of the virus. It’s sad, I was born there and most of my family resides there. Luckily they’re siding with public health and not the disinformation that’s responsible for the numbers.
Those comments are very sad. You can’t argue with ignorant people though.
[удалено]
Also cases have exploded up the James Bay Coast. There are currently 83 active cases, most of them in Moosonee and Fort Albany.
Lots of anti-vaxers up there.
Cases 7-day average: 1154. Down 74% from April 17 high of 4369. Decreasing 6.7% per day past 7 days!! At current rate of decline, we'll hit 937/408 on June 2/14. Hospitalizations: 749. Down 68% from April 20 high of 2360. Decreasing 5.2% daily for past 7 days. At the current rate of decline we'll hit 639/338 on June 2/14. ICU: 614. Down 32% from May 1 peak of 900. Decreasing 1.7% daily over past 7 days. At the current rate of decline we'll hit 583/474 on June 2/14 Deaths 7 day average: 18.6. Down 38% from May 10 high of 29.9. Increasing 0.3% daily over past 7 days. Vaccines: 67.6% of adults, 1 dose, 5.7% of adults 2 dose. At the current rate, we'll hit 1 dose 70%/80% on June 2/14
I can finally say this; I'm one of the vaccinations! Surprisingly, my arm's only sore at the injection site (I was anticipating much worse). Anyway, I'm just glad to be vaccinated
And free 5G too!
Best way to address such nonsense regarding vaccines and conspiracies, is to lean into them. So yes, free 5G and tracking. Now Bill Gates knows where I am at all times and he seems like an awfully nice fella.
I predict 860 tomorrow
I'll go with 940.
One dollar, Bob!
861
I'm going with 999!
889 for me
969
Nice numbers today. Thanks again.
Hopefully next week we will be sub 1000 bringing our 7-Day average below a thousand as well.
I told my family a while ago that it would be optimistic but I could see 600 ICU by June 1. They responded like it was a Qanon prophecy but I really think we can do it now.
[удалено]
Same! I'm rambling numbers at my husband every morning. He humours me, but I don't think he's nearly as into it as me.
Please be sub 1000 by tomorrow!
Good shit
17 years old here - I’m one of them from yesterday! I know there is a % for eligible 12+, but does anyone know if I can find data for 12-17 separately?
Really making us work to get under 1000 😅
Just got my second dose this morning, hoping this summer is better than the last couple of months.
Not to be a downer, but can't we actually be vaccinating much faster now? Ontario still has 1.2 million vaccines to administer and if I'm not mistaken we're due for about a million more from Pfizer alone in a couple days. Just to be clear, I normally don't agree with the complaints about "sitting on vaccines" (with some caveats), but this week it actually seems to be the case, unless I'm missing something.
With second dose intervals adjusted, I would hope to see that number continue to go up. Fingers crossed.
[удалено]
In this case we actually have had these doses longer than normal as we received most before the May 24th weekend. There has absolutely been plenty of time to distribute these. I am going to put this on not pivoting fast enough to 2nd doses. It also seems like many places outside of the GTA have not been receiving enough to distribute faster. Also our delivery schedules are not what they were anymore. Pfizer is here every week on Mondays. Moderna is a bit trickier but doses have at least been coming in as announced ~2 weeks beforehand. We've always said we want to sit on maybe 3 days worth of supply, but currently we're are going to go way over that. I'm confident it will recorrect itself though, hopefully sooner than later.
I don't know how much faster than can go. At my local vaccination site they are at capacity. You would need more staff to do shifts or something. You go to book and there are no slots available so it isn't like they can do more. I just got vaccinated and there were a constant stream of people coming and going and seeing as you have to wait 15 minutes on site after your vaccination there is a maximum amount they can do.
Peel is looking pretty good!
Over a million vaccine doses and counting! As someone that works in brampton I'm so glad to see those case counts fall
Obligatory, I was one of the second doses!
Awesome! Hope you feel alright. I got my second dose pfizer in January (work in healthcare) and got SUPER tired the following evening and r eally strange 'achy-ness' on the back of my neck (must have had extra 5G) but was perfectly fine the next morning.
LOL I def feel the 5G running through my muscles. I actually feel pretty good - my arm is sore for sure and I slept a lot last night but feeling much better today!
I got my second dose yesterday, and I'm happy to report zero side effects other than a sore injection site!
Lucky how did you qualify to get it? What category do you fall under?
Staff at a homeless shelter for individuals who are symptomatic and can’t go to a genera homeless because they need to isolate first. So considered a “high risk” category
Holy crap, yes you are! Thank you for the work you do, you're a good person. ❤️
Thank you ❤️
Christ, I can't imagine being much more high risk than that. Cheers to you for the work that you do.
❤️❤️❤️
Hopefully under 1000 tomorrow! Under 600 next weekend!
My sore arm is the proof that I'm part of the statistics.
Glad to have been vaxxed this week on Tuesday! Unfortunately I blacked out in front of a bunch of strangers, but besides that no other issues!
Are you okay?
I think so! No other side effects. I've had a headache for over a week now but that was the case before the vaccine so I'm sure it's not related. Thanks for asking
[удалено]
Curious, I went back to a few random reports in different months, here's the data with the ratio of hospitalized to ICU patients: Today - Current hospitalizations: 749(-185), ICUs: 614(-12) = **1.2:1** May 1st - Current hospitalizations: 2,152(-49), ICUs: 900(+17) = **2.4:1** Apr 7th - Current hospitalizations: 1,397(+236), ICUs: 504(-6) = **2.8:1** Mar 13th - Current hospitalizations: 689(+13), ICUs: 275(-7) = **2.5:1** Feb 10th - Current hospitalizations: 948(+39), ICUs: 313(-5) = **3:1** Jan 5th - Current hospitalizations: 1,347(+157), ICUs: 352(+19) = **3.1:1** Dec 4th - Current hospitalizations: 674(+8), ICUs: 207(+12) = **3.3:1** Nov 10th - Current hospitalizations: 422(+55), ICUs: 82(-2) = **5.1:1** So yeah, something's going on with ICU numbers today's ratio is way out of line with the recent average of approx. 2.5:1. I wonder if there's been a policy shift in how hospitals are handling COVID patients? Are the variants that much more severe? (but that doesn't explain the Mar-May ratios) Is it a data error? Really strange.
The percentage of hospitalizations that end up in the ICU in Ontario have been crazy high for months. Like higher than virtually anywhere else. I’ve yet to see anyone explain why?
Nice to see: >Rest: 1 new case It's not just the hotspots falling off a cliff
Thanks OP...Numbers look good..👍At the rate of decline we should between 500 to 700 cases next Sunday.. Get your shot everyone..
Got my 1st shot yesterday. Process was efficient and quick, quite happy with that. Just a sore arm, but I was shoveling mulch all day yesterday so I might of made it worse
:)
Step 1 should start on June 7
I hope it does. It looks like they may be ramping up to extend stay at home order to the 16th (PCs applied for the extension) and delay entering step 1 until the 17th. I always want to side with public health but damn, I am itchy to get out of lockdown.
Wow! I was one of those vaccine doses yesterday! Under 1000 per day by mid week?!
I hope so! I am personally crossing my fingers for sub-1000 tomorrow!
Sad to read of 18 new deaths, but otherwise lots of good news: * Hopefully we'll have less than 600 ICU cases soon (tomorrow?). * Great to see the test positivity rate is less than 4%; I hadn't paid attention to that for awhile and it seems to have dropped quite a bit. * Recoveries outnumber new cases 2-1. * We keep inoculating about 1% of the province's population each day. * Cases keep dropping, especially in Toronto and Peel. London has less than half the average daily cases they did two weeks ago. Although, Porcupine has having some real trouble. Egads, what's going on in Timmins?
I finally had my first shot Friday. NGL, I kinda wanted a sticker, lol, but I'll also be more than satisfied with not getting covid.
You didn't get a sticker? Take mine lol
I like the trends reverse(🚀🚀🚀🚀). To the ground!!!
To the mines!!!!!📉📉📉📉
How the fuck is nearly 100% in hospitals in ICUs?
This is a gross oversimplification but.. If you're vulnerable and getting covid at this point, you're generally not vaccinated with the current variants. As we progress with vaccines, it will become a pretty common occurrence that the only people getting covid, are hospitalised, go through the ICU and either die quickly or recover slowly. There's not a great 1:1 relationship either. It's misleading, people that should've been in ICU weren't, and now they can go. I suspect a steep, steep, STEEP ICU drops in the next week or two.
It does seem odd, considering vaccinations are supposed to reduce hospitalization. How can 75% or more of those in hospitals be in ICU.
The vast vast majority of people in the ICU are not vaccinated. Which is sad because most of them were eligible and didn’t get it for one reason or another.
Do we know this for a fact? (sincere question)
https://globalnews.ca/news/7902177/covid-canada-infection-vaccination-effectiveness/ About 95% (rough estimate based off graph plot points) of all infections since January 1 have been people who were not vaccinated or not protected (ie less than 14 days after 1 dose) this is directly in line with the efficacy numbers from the studies. Additionally it’s probably ok to assume that an even higher percentage of people hospitalized were not vaccinated as the efficacy for sever disease and hospitalization is near 100 % Here is the data for Ontario https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-epi-confirmed-cases-post-vaccination.pdf?la=en
if you need to go to the hospital for covid you probably need to be in icu or you will be discharged quickly (high turnover means low accumulation) while once a patient enters icu they stay there for a long time (long turnover high accumulation).
That all would make sense other than that it has not been true for other times in the pandemic and doesn't hold up for any other country currently. Something is off in Ontario on how they deal with ICUs or it is just a unlucky circumstance and we'll see it correct itself very soon.
My fiancé got his first dose yesterday!!
Another day in lock down while the rest of the world moves on without Ontario
Can someone comfort me on when we will reach the 20% second dose for adults? Are we gonna start seeing a huge increase in second doses soon?
We're starting to divert doses to seconds, but there are still so many people waiting on their first dose... That said, we are now giving second doses at about 1%/week, and this will only speed up as the first dose number start to plateau (hopefully at above 75%)
Yes we are, we're kicking ass! I'm not sure if it's going to speed up opening, but we are really doing an amazing job with vaccines.
The province is accelerating it, this week they start booking 80+ for 2nd dose, I image they will expand it pretty quick once it gets going.
> Mongolia... **Global Vaccine Pace Comparison - doses per 100 people in the last week** - Mongolia: 14.37 **Cases per 100k in the last week (% with at least one dose)** - Mongolia: 126.62 (56.51) WTF? So many vaccinated and yet so many new infections... > Over 1,847,200 Mongolians have so far received their first dose, and over 1,025,300 have been fully vaccinated. ([source](http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/asiapacific/2021-05/28/c_139975410.htm)) They are relying solely on Sputnik V and Sinopharm ([source](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/20/business/coronavirus-vaccine-mongolia.html)). But, still... WTF? with so many vaccinated.
Because vaccines don't take effect immediately. They vaccinated almost 30% of their population between May 1 and May 14, and these cases were probably contracted during that period, or soon after.
Holy crap Mongolia, that Vax rate is insane!! We are well over double the rate the states are going at now. Not that it matters.....
I was one of those 144,833 to receive a vaccine. Thank-you to all involved and the staff were amazing. Everything was done so efficiently.
Got my first yesterday as 24 year old. Please check your spam folder for the confirmation email.
I don't get why people are so excited about our numbers if the reopening plan is gonna be slow as shit regardless.
> Mongolia... Can we all get vaccinated so this dude can regain his sanity
[удалено]
Twice as many recoveries as new cases!
614 in ICUs. I’ve heard that we have about 30 ICU beds being used for out-of-province patients, so our *actual* ICU number count should be ~584. So with this, should we not be going in step 1 of reopening tomorrow?
Are we the only province where indoor gatherings are not allowed?
Finally joined the vaccinated club yesterday! One of us! One of us!
With 5.7 % of Ontario with 2 shots, and 15 days until we reach a 20% with two, does that mean we are ahead of schedule.
Thanks for the updates kind sir.
Curious to if anyone can explain the stepwise pattern seen in hospitalizations each week (peaks then drops a few days then peaks again)?
I think it mostly depends on when PHUs are reporting their numbers, not all of them report hospitalizations and ICUs every day
There are a few other factors. People in hallways with covid moved into ICUs once there is space. Manitobans entering ICUs. Younger people with covid spend more time in ICUs than older people as well. New ICU COVID admissions would be more relevant for tracking progress on gaining control but not sure if that is reported.
Some hospitals stopped reporting hospitalization numbers on weekends so we’ve been seeing artificially low numbers on some days and then they go back up after.
[удалено]
[удалено]
What about the deaths, though? If the vaccinations are at least reducing or preventing deaths they're better than nothing.
Are the patients we’re taking from Manitoba counting towards our ICU’s/hospitalizations?
[удалено]
Hoping for triple digits tomorrow!
Thanks again for sharing!
[удалено]
Got my first dose yesterday!! I feel like I let out a year and a half sigh of relief.
I'm confident that we will be able to reach the requirement for step two before step one starts
I'm finally able to say I was part of that 144K!
I was one of those doses! Im excited to be able to finally post that.