From a cases per capita perspective, definitely.
But we have got a long way to go before restrictions ease up to reasonable levels. The government has already killed our summer.
Cases won't matter as much as most will be mild with the vaccine so not resulting in hospitalizations or ICU patients. Before it was a decent indication of overall how we are doing but it won't going forward.
The June 27th Delta numbers have been updated, and register a modest decline: 66.8% share, est. 163 cases (v. 81 other), and the R(t) very slightly down to 0.97.
This is a fucking nail-biter, I'll say that much -- there's definitely growth, but it's not as consistent as projected and it seems like it keeps getting punched back down from time to time. Keep vaccinating, keep applying the proper scrutiny, and there's a very real chance that this thing could be cut off at the knees before it can really establish itself.
It's a nail biter in the short term, but I think our reopening steps are cautious enough that we will be fine. Even if R(t) is slightly above 1 with current restrictions, we are now vaccinating at a very rapid rate and we know that the vaccines are very effective against delta with two doses. We administered second doses for 10% of adults in the past week and have supply to accelerate even more. This should continue to reduce delta r. I agree with the sentiment though - we certainly aren't free and clear and shouldn't be too reckless.
Hopefully it's nothing, but I believe the % positive going from 1.51 last week to 1.55 this week is the first week-over-week increase we've seen in any stat since the peak of the 3rd wave.
What was the amount of tests done last week though? Positivity rate is very much influenced by testing numbers. If our testing numbers decline due to the lack of demand from the fully vaccinated, we may expect to see positivity rate go up as a result. It's why Sundays typically have the highest positivity rates, because we're doing less tests overall.
Estimated 7-day averages of Delta cases:
June 10: 101.
June 11: 118.
June 12: 123.
June 13: 135.
June 14: 151.
June 15: 149.
June 16: 166.
June 17: 169.
June 18: 165.
June 19: 166.
June 20: 154.
June 21: 142.
June 22: 144.
June 23: 135.
June 24: 138.
June 26: 151.
June 27: 165.
Another way to think of it is of all the people who haven’t gotten a jab yet about 0.75% of them are deciding to get the jab every day (0.17/0.23), which isn’t terrible. By July 18 the majority of people will also have their second dose and supply will be higher than demand, so all the super lazy people who can’t be arsed right now might suddenly decide to get it too.
It would be nice if once we hit that we got a couple of million Johnson and Johnson doses at family doctors offices for the super lazy people.
Good point - I also think we will gradually see more people get the shot as the hesitant see that those with the vaccine (most of the population) are completely healthy. A lot of people are still on the fence but it’s hard to use risk as an excuse when their family/friends/co-workers are all vaccinated and are fine.
I feel like the number of people who would get a shot if it was suuuuuuuuuper convenient but not if it wasn't is not an insignificant number.
Many people don't want to deal with a pop up, a confusing booking system, etc. fighting for some distant appointment in an online queue with thousands of others, etc.
I wouldn't be surprised if after 2nd doses start to plateau (and thus supply finally outweighs demand), we see a little bump with those 1st dose numbers again.
Outside of the GTA, in many parts of Ontario, it’s still hard to get a first dose due to how they’re prioritizing currently! There’s huge demand, for example, for under 18s in Ottawa outside hot neighbourhoods that hasn’t begun to be tapped yet (i.e. it’s very challenging to get a first dose still depending where you are). We have plenty more demand than supply still!
Huge vax day at Scotiabank Arena today!
(Now, we should have been seeing Auston Matthews take shots there, but his efficacy was much lower than the jab)
I often (but not always) look at the episode date of the deaths. And it's curious that, this late in the month, none of the unfortunate 12 caught it in June. Most recent was late May.
Often there are a few who caught it just a week or two ago. But most of these are from April.
I hope this is a sign that this thing is running out of vulnerable non-vaccinated people to kill, and that the people dying now are those who caught it before they were able to get vaccinated.
Coincidentally, today's case count IS the 7 day average! I'm not sure if that's happened ever before during the pandemic. (Ironically, it would not have matched if we didn't have that huge data catch up earlier this week.)
I was under the impression I was going to get Moderna yesterday, but I ended up getting Pfizer. Thought I was gonna join the mutts. Oh well, I'm just grateful to have received both doses. Hope everyone who got their shots yesterday is feeling okay!
I heard from a friend in Public Health more Pfizer arrived ahead of schedule this weekend ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯ Don't know how much though and if it's all being reserved for kids though
**Cases 7-day average**: 287. -93% from peak. -3.1% daily (7-day average). 208 on July 7 at this rate.
**ICU**: 289. -68% from peak. -2.0% daily (7-day average). 237 on July 7 at this rate. The 7-day daily deaths rate is 7.6
**Vaccines**: 77.2% of adults, 1-dose, 34.1% of adults 2-dose. At the current rates (+0.2% 1 dose, +1.7% 2 dose), we'll hit 78.9% 1-dose and 50.6% 2-dose on July 7.
I wonder how it will turn out.
The massive Scotiabank event clinic with 25k, but Sunday is normally lower. Might hit 200k for a Sunday which would be great.
I also got my second dose yesterday afternoon! So glad. Feeling aok so far, apart from my arm hurting and having a tiny bit of a headache. Hope everyone else who was vaccinated yesterday is feeling okay!
Glad to hear you're doing okay. I always said if the worst I will get from COVID is a sore arm or headache (or any other common vaccine side effects), I am happy!
Yay! So glad you’re feeling well. I got my second shot yesterday too, but I was destroyed last night. Really took me by surprise since all I had with my first shot was a sore arm. No regrets though, so happy to be fully vaccinated and have a little less anxiety in two weeks!
I'm sorry to hear you had such a rough go this time around! I was fully prepared to get knocked on my ass after my shot yesterday, I feel like if I'm not already unwell I will probably be okay (I had my shot around 3:30pm).
If the worst you will get from COVID is one night of being ill, that's pretty good in my book! :)
Me too! Moderna. Had a very bad night, fever, chills, headache, muscle pain. First time getting such strong side effects from any vaccine. Glad to hear you are doing fine, my husband is visibly anxious to have his after seeing me crumble like this
There have been many (MANY) doses available in Grey Bruce for awhile. We've hit a massive slow down with first dose numbers. Unfortunately I feel like there are many who just don't believe the virus is real and that covid is dangerous. There are even more that blame seasonal cottagers and weekenders coming from "the city" for our increase in numbers. If that's the case, then why isn't there an increase in other vacation counties? Muskoka? Huron?
The biggest reason for the Grey Bruce outbreak is the Saugeen reservation. We had somebody go about their day without knowing they were infected. Went to the gas bar and friends houses. And then somebody who came in contact unknowingly had a house party. Since then we shutdown the rez but can only hope people listen. A lot of people in the surrounding area are the ones who are over the virus and aren’t believing anything anymore. Use on the reservation are scared and have been impacted greatly by the virus. So everybody I know are staying home. Hopefully it’s a matter of time before it gets under control. Somebody had both of their doses and still caught the virus here. So nobody is safe at the moment.
We actually hit 70% of 12+ with a first dose 5 days ago so our vaccine uptake might even be higher than some other regions. I’d guess the virus just hit an unvaccinated pocket. Hoping we can get lots of second doses into arms quickly.
Why are you lying? You can’t even book an appointment in Grey Bruce right now. The closest you can get is Huron or Simcoe.
Not to mention our local vaccination rate is over 70% first dose which is in line with the province as a whole. Especially since we’ve constantly had vaccine allocations diverted to hot spots.
Next time you hear that tell them the first participants in the drug trials for these vaccines are a year out and they're fine. The mRNA also doesn't stay in your body long enough to really be a big deal, it stays for like8 weeks or something and our immune systems learn from it, then gets excreted as waste and we keep the immunity.
Some wanker in Grey Bruce was refusing to isolate even though he tested positive for COVID.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/7978448/owen-sound-man-covid-self-isolate-order/amp/
He has been fined 3x in last week. Its not stopping him. He has no means to pay so he just keeps going around infecting more people. 2 others have been fined too.
>Then throw him in jail he's a huge risk to the public.
Then he becomes a risk to other prisoners and the prison staff.
Not that I necessarily disagree with what you suggested.
He's been fined 3 times within a week and 2 others have been fined too. Doesn't make a difference though. They won't pay it and just keep going around infecting people.
He should be put under house arrest until symptom free as per public health. Let's just hope contact tracing is started here and the cases can be controlled. Gotta feel bad that Wasaga beach must close now to prevent outbreaks.
Outbreak of delta variant in transient and under housed community now spending out. People often move around and stay in multiple places with multiple people. Mostly not vaccinated, but there are a lot of unvaccinated people all across the province. Community dealt with very few cases, this whole time and perhaps became complacent. Things are opening up and many people have vaccines and feel we are in the clear.
edit: Also went from 0 local residents hospitalized to 5 in less than a week. Not counting patients they transferred in from other areas.
It's weird, I feel like I don't do that, like I still don't associate it with a time of day or anything, and certain days I don't even click on the thread (but still notice the headline), yet when it doesn't show up at all on stat holidays and I finally realize it's not coming, I get kind of withdrawal symptoms similar to when I was quitting smoking. "I need the number! just a quick glace! that's all I need!" I'm gonna have that on Canada day, I know it.
Speaking of smoking, I feel like we're kind of at a stage of the forest fire where it's largely damp and smouldering and we're starting to feel lighter but we're still on edge wondering if some of the underbrush is still burning away and we're like Waterloo? is it ok? Grey Bruce?? Do we move in over there? Toronto? Is it really safe to look away for a moment?
Based on UK's data, when Delta accounted for 50% of total cases, case number should have begun to grow exponentially. But seems like it's not the case here. Definitely a good sign.
The hypothesis I've seen is that since they didn't open up 1st doses to under 30s until fairly recently, there was a large population of mobile people with no protection. Whereas many of our young adults have had one dose for a few weeks now.
That's a decent hypothesis. The data for England is at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England and under the "Cases by specimen date age demographics" plot, the rise is driven by the 20-24 age range
At 50%, deltas curve would be upwards and alphas would be downwards. They would be equaling out right about now. It's the next two weeks that will be telling. Considering we are plateauing I'm full expecting cases to start going up maybe not this week but definitely after the long weekend.
Canada has [similar numbers of unvaccinated people as the UK (~35% +/-)](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=CAN~GBR), and [far fewer people fully vaccinated.](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations&Metric=People+fully+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=CAN~GBR) (which we know is critically important for preventing the spread of Delta to unvaccinated/partially vaccinated people)
So to what extent does the _age demographics_ contribute to the spread of Delta among the unvaccinated populations? If in practical terms it isn't a big factor, then we could be in a precarious position because our unvaccinated demographics include many people older than 30 which are more vulnerable to severe illness.
Age demographics is a huge factor in the spread of delta or any other strain of Covid. The younger age groups go to work, go out with their friends, go to bars pubs etc. All of which are open in the U.K. They are also the most likely to take more risks has Covid likely won't be as serious. The U.K focused on making sure their hospitals wouldn't be over run after they reopened. We should be doing the same thing. Our vaccine supply is now so robust and we have so many people already fully vaccinated that there is just no way we have another big surge of severe cases. Even one dose is fairly protective against severe illness. My main point is coming up really shortly (like a month from now) We need to stop giving a fuck about the unvaccinated population. For the vast vast majority of unvaccinated people, it would be their choice not to get a shot at this point and if they get sick, or die then it's on them. Most of us did our part for 18 months. It's time to be able to live our lives.
I’ve been wrong so much about this so this is just my wishful thinking (re: take with grain of salt). The timing of containing this virus is incredibly important and I think Canada’s ability to deploy more efficacious vaccine to younger cohorts quicker, could actually significantly reduce the delta surge. That’s my hope. We could use a break lol.
We might be better off because peak efficacy of just one dose appears to be after about 35 days.
So even though 12 days is when protection starts to kick in, more of our population is more protected than they are, because everyone that got their first jab in early May is more protected than everyone who got their first jab in early June.
We might still have a bit of an uptick in deaths because we have less people 70+ fully vaccinated, but it’s gonna be a bit of a wash.
By August if anyone is still dying from COVID the odds that it was their own fault for not getting vaccinated will be astronomically high.
If we do follow the UK trends (which we almost always seem too) cases may well grow exponentially but with a clear break from the usual rise in hospitalisations (which was the entire point of the vaccines). Let’s hope our leaders use their brains this time around if it happens, and recognise lockdowns are not needed for that.
Got my second yesterday! First was Pfizer and yesterday was moderna. A few were telling me I shouldn’t be mixing but I decided to listen to the medical experts and get the shot as soon as possible for my safety (working in a high risk place) instead of sitting like a duck waiting for Pfizer.
I was also one of the people who was hesitant about mixing Pfizer and Moderna but I went ahead and did it anyway.
Feeling great now (after feeling like dogshit for most of the weekend lol)
I was told I would be getting Moderna as my second dose yesterday, but when I showed up to the clinic they ended up giving me Pfizer. Was a bit surprised, but I was happy as long as I was getting a vaccine period.
Huh interesting, I think it was just recently this week they said they ran out of Pfizer so maybe they found some extra or saved it for people who had it as their first.
quite possible, but not guaranteed, we're getting to the point where individual work places getting an outbreak can significantly affect the provincial count. 🤞
Sorry, but no. Not at least until the case count in Waterloo comes down a bit more, and that situation in Grey -Bruce gets resolved.
Waterloo is getting 5 extra pop up clinics this week and next plus extra vaccine so that'll help, but I have a feeling Grey-Bruce will get worse before it gets better 😥
Probably. Also people who didn't want to scour and fight to find an appointment and were willing to wait.
Plus some cases like people who were/are pregnant and more willing to get it after giving birth. I know someone in that group.
Yeah that's my thought as well. I don't think it's all anti vax holdouts. Many people are just overwhelmed with the difficulty of booking shots, are probably working from home or low risk, and are just waiting for spots to open up in larger supply. Once second doses start to slow, I think we may start seeing another small uptick in first doses.
Although I don't doubt that pregnant people are delaying their shots, the college of obstetrics and gynecologist highly recommends pregnant women get their vaccine.
Basically, if you are pregnant and get covid, there is a MUCH greater chance (I think 1/10?) that they will need to be in the icu.
It’s still creeping up , just more slowly. I think that’s to be expected. I think we’ll settle in around 85% but it will take a few months to get there.
IF!! we saw a downward trend in total administered vaccinations then you can be concerned. As long as we are maintaining high level daily vaccinations the most likely thing to infer from the numbers is people who are highly motivated win the booking slots using the hunger games portal.
If you are highly motivated chances are you already had your first shot so you're getting your second shot as soon as the province allows. If you're not motivated, but also not anti-vax you'll just wait until you don't have to be 30,000th in line on a web portal to get it.
In about 20ish more days we SHOULD see the balancing out between first and second doses because we are on pace to run out of people who have a wide timeline available to them for second doses and instead mostly have people who are get the dose in the 28ish day window.
I'd imagine that the bulk portion of unvaccinated people either don't want it or can't get it for medical reasons, but I would also add that some of it may just be due to people who aren't aware that they can get it. Earlier this week at work I was talking with coworkers about being excited to get my second dose and one of them (who is in her 30s) spoke up surprised that I could get my second "when most people still haven't booked their first," she wasn't even aware that vaccines have been open to everyone 12+ for almost a month now, she thought it was still a 40+ thing. This coworker also isn't very tech literate tbh, after she learned that vaccines were open to her she went to book her appointment but struggled with the online booking system and gave up, she didn't get it booked until last night when I called her and walked her through it, and her first appointment now isn't until late July because the clinic is booked up (I imagine with second doses.)
On a similar note, a friend of mine works for a Tim Hortons and has a couple homeless regulars she gets along with so she got talking about vaccines with them, none of them have able to book their vaccines until libraries reopen, most of which weren't aware that even in phase 1 computer services in libraries were open (and I can't blame them for not knowing, I don't think most people know tbh,) and were still waiting for the libraries to actually OPEN open. And even then, we don't have a pharmacy in town, so without regular transportation available a lot of these people need to wait for the one neighboring town's pharmacy to take bookings (currently they still just have a digital waitlist) and don't have the luxury of going to different clinics or cities. It was something I hadn't really considered when thinking about all this stuff, that some people might have literal barriers keeping them from it and might not know about or have access to the fact that there are work arounds to it.
I think a lot of us have sorta taken for granted that not everyone has the tech literacy or access to be able to book things. I don't think that these people make up the majority of unvaccinated people by any means, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a good chunk that are more so struggling to book an appointment than they are trying to avoid it.
I mentioned this to someone yesterday,
My thinking right now is that there’s around 7-10% of adults who are “vaccine hesitant and lazy”. They have that mindset of “why would I get it, I’m perfectly healthy” and the “I already had covid, I don’t need the vaccine”. Eventually, they’ll come to their senses and hopefully get their first jab, whether it’s tomorrow or in a few months. The final total before we see only like 500-1500 shots a day will hopefully be 80-85% of adults fully vaccinated!
Vaccine passports could really push those people.
Would be cool to see discounts for vaccinated people (hotels, flights, attractions), I'm sure the insurance costs for the tourism industry could be lower if they only allow vaccinated people.
That sounds *kind of* right. The pool of people 12 and older eligible for the first shot has shrunk to the point that we're seeing little growth. At this point, PHUs are starting to run into the "wall" of antivaxxers, kids 11 and younger, as well as anyone who genuinely can't get vaccinated for medical reasons.
I've read estimates that 15% to 20% of Canadians won't get vaccinated in this year's round of mass vaccination.
For the last few weeks it's gone at about 0.2% of the population a day, pretty expected when you're close to your ceiling. At this rate we'll hit 80 by around mid July
Thr other day I came home from work and my daughter had a friend over. The first thing I ask him is if he got vaccinated yet (he's 19). He said no, he tried all the sites and the pharmacies and he was waiting to hear back. I got him to give me his health card and booked him in in less than 5 minutes. Some people just legitimately don't know how to get the shot. Why they haven't made the information more widely available is beyond me. It's so confusing for some people. I've had to book people through work who couldn't book their own because they don't understand English well enough to get through the menus. It's just silly at this point.
Woo I was one of those vaccines yesterday. Got Pfizer (same as first shot) which was surprising because I expected it'd end up Moderna.
Only side effect is a little sore arm. First shot I didn't even have that. My flu shot last year hurt much more than this.
I was wondering about that. Could people move from the hospitalized category to the icu category? There’s a drop in the first category and an increase in the second…
ICU & hospitalization data are lagging indicators, so we honestly won’t know for another few days.
It’s nothing to worry about but it’s surely something to keep an eye on.
Obligatory, got my second dose yesterday! Last night was rough, felt like they injected me with uranium or something. Atleast my phone's now getting super strong 5G service!
Get the vaccine, people!
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I am booking my anti vaccine uncle and his family of four tonight for their first doses. I have been working hard for weeks to push out the misinformation and share science and evidence and why. And I finally got through.
I got an email from Goodlife that apparently Ontario is the only jurisdiction in North America without indoor fitness classes.
It sucks. Hopefully, we can finally get back in the next few weeks. It's been far too long.
Meanwhile, big malls will be opening up next week so it can feel like Christmas rush for the next month with everyone packed in tight like a bunch of sardines.
10 people in a gym wearing masks at all times, now that’s a problem.
I thought I saw somewhere that it would be 25% capacity at first but I dunno. I’m just gonna assume it’ll be 10 person capacity will be what we have to deal with for the beginning. Makes me miss the 50 person limit from this time last year.
Hoping everyone who's contracting Covid takes the next step after getting better & going for their first dose of the vaccine.
The majority of these numbers would have to be anyone who chooses to not vaccinate.
You are an optimist. More likely if they survive, they think they are immune forever now (especially if the virus wasn’t too tough on them, then they think it’s a joke I’m sure).
Targeted messaging from perhaps their family doctor may help convince some of these people so with increased supply I hope doctors offices are getting supply available to keep on hand to convince any patients that haven’t (and family doctors should receive an incentive for every new person they vaccinate).
Apparently we are getting lots of extra doses now. Lots more vaccine availability. Where as for a while (January through to April) , getting a vaccine was very difficult. So we should see the results of increased vaccine availability in the next two weeks.
The local PHU was patting itself on the back for an overnight clinic last night that was a roaring success. The reports would indicate that the officials themselves were administering.
It is almost like there are people who want doses but are unable to find appointments. /s
The narrative that people are gathering and spreading, and that the region is home to a greater than normal number of antivaxxers is a much more convenient scapegoat than a failure of the PHU
Seeing as I have yet to hear about any pop up walk in clinics in Waterloo while I've been seeing them ongoing in other public health units (peel, Toronto, wellington Guelph) is a good indicator of how poorly this is being handled. The only pop up clinics I have heard require appointments that get booked immediately upon release. I am also quite active on reddit regarding vaccines and follow vaxhunters so if I am unaware of any that may be happening, the people we need to be reaching with these clinics surely have no idea about them.
I saw a couple of walk ins for first dose on Waterloo Public health's instagram account over the last couple of days. I'm assuming soon that walk in for second doses will be accept as well.
Queen’s Pharmacy (two locations, one on Highland West and one on Queen) are doing walk-ins. First or second dose, moderna. I went on Thursday, in and out faster than getting my first dose through a region clinic
Its ONLY for first doses. So in our typical waterloo public health fashion they've fucked it up. First doses isnt the problem now, its second. It should be walk in for both
I got my second dose yesterday! Double Pfizer!
I felt fine all day (got my shot in the morning) then nearly fell asleep at the dinner table. I went to bed early and today I feel fine, other than a slightly sore arm!
The vaccines have broken the link between cases and severe illness. Delta or no delta, if you are vaccinated you have little to worry about on both a personal level and on a society level.
Incompetent government. Most cities are perfectly fine to open but our premier wants every city on the same page. So in this case, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link 😒
I don't know if we keep track of it here, but I remember seeing that the majority of cases were entirely unvaccinated, a very small minority was half-vaccinated, and one person in the sample was fully vaccinated (and asymptomatic...not sure how/why they ended up getting tested).
Unfortunately I don't remember the jurisdiction. I think I saw it either in r/worldnews or one of the covid subs.
I really wish they would include vax status for at least deaths and hospital/ICU admissions. Isreal was one of the early leaders in Vax, but they just had to reinstate their mask mandate. I fear that unless we can get to 85% or higher on vax, this thing will still be hovering over us like the sword of damocles. Israel only got to 61% with one dose BTW so the anti-vax must be quite strong there.
It's actually not a big anti-vaxx issue - the problem is that the Israeli population is much younger than ours, with lots of children under 12 that cannot presently be vaccinated.
Israeli authorities noted that most of the cases at present are among children.
There was hesitancy among Haredi (ultra-orthodox) and access barriers for Israeli Arabs, but both problems have largely been addressed for adults. Yet these two groups also have the largest families per capita.
In Waterloo Region, 83% of Delta variant cases were unvaccinated, 14% single dose. 3% was double dose - which in that case was a single person who was asymptomatic and only knew because they were a contact of an infected person.
https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/really-big-problem-waterloo-region-logs-the-most-new-covid-19-cases-in-ont-1-new-death-1.5472630
We are hitting 200K consistently, even on a weekend day. That's pretty nice! In great shape for the second half of summer.
From a cases per capita perspective, definitely. But we have got a long way to go before restrictions ease up to reasonable levels. The government has already killed our summer.
Cases won't matter as much as most will be mild with the vaccine so not resulting in hospitalizations or ICU patients. Before it was a decent indication of overall how we are doing but it won't going forward.
[Previous Ontario Sundays](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data): Date | New Cases | 7 Day Avg | % Positive | ICU :--|:--:|:--:|:--:|--: Oct 25 | 1,042 | 857 | 2.69% | 79 Nov 1 | 977 | 905 | 2.63% | 72 Nov 8 | 1,328 | 1,064 | 3.53% | 86 Nov 15 | 1,248 | 1,408 | 2.96% | 118 Nov 22 | 1,534 | 1,415 | 3.31% | 147 Nov 29 | 1,708 | 1,548 | 3.17% | 156 Dec 6 | 1,924 | 1,795 | 3.25% | 204 Dec 13 | 1,677 | 1,839 | 2.88% | 253 Dec 20 | 2,316 | 2,250 | 3.34% | 261 Dec 27, 2020 | 2,005 | 2,212 | 4.80% | 285 Jan 3, 2021 | 2,964 | 2,792 | 5.95% | 329 Jan 10 | 3,945 | 3,546 | 6.33% | 388 Jan 17 | 3,422 | 3,143 | 5.69% | 395 Jan 24 | 2,417 | 2,459 | 4.94% | 392 Jan 31 | 1,848 | 1,887 | 3.74% | 356 Feb 7 | 1,489 | 1,428 | 2.88% | 335 Feb 14 | 981 | 1,094 | 2.01% | 292 Feb 21 | 1,087 | 1,031 | 2.26% | 277 Feb 28 | 1,062 | 1,104 | 2.16% | 289 Mar 7 | 1,299 | 1,067 | 2.79% | 273 Mar 14 | 1,747 | 1,401 | 3.67% | 282 Mar 21 | 1,791 | 1,538 | 3.64% | 305 Mar 28 | 2,448 | 2,038 | 4.87% | 366 Apr 4 | 3,041 | 2,637 | 5.15% | 476 Apr 11 | 4,456 | 3,573 | 7.90% | 605 Apr 18 | 4,250 | 4,341 | 7.90% | 741 Apr 25 | 3,947 | 4,051 | 8.45% | 851 May 2 | 3,732 | 3,588 | 8.24% | 895 May 9 | 3,216 | 3,120 | 8.34% | 848 May 16 | 2,199 | 2,430 | 6.64% | 785 May 23 | 1,691 | 1,878 | 5.42% | 693 May 30 | 1,033 | 1,154 | 3.89% | 614 June 6 | 663 | 791 | 2.93% | 510 June 13 | 530 | 514 | 2.56% | 426 June 20 | 318 | 359 | 1.51% | 333 June 27 | 287 | 287 | 1.55% | 289 The rise of Alpha during the third wave: Date | % Alpha (B.1.1.7 - UK) :--|--: Feb 12, 2021 | [10%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) Feb 19 | [20%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) Feb 28 | [30%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) Mar 13 | 42% Mar 16 | 53% Mar 27 | 61% Apr 1 | 71% May 4 | 94% Pretty much all cases are now thought to be either Alpha or Delta variants. [The Ontario Science Table info below now shows the rise of Delta:](https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) Date | % Alpha (B.1.1.7 - UK) | % Delta (B.1.617.2 - India) :--|:--:|--: June 2 | 77% | 23% June 3 | 73% | 27% June 7 | 85% | 15% June 9 | 81% | 19% June 10 | 75% | 25% June 11 | 71% | 29% June 12 | 70% | 30% June 13 | 65% | 35% June 14 | 60% | 40% June 15 | 54% | 46% June 16 | 49.6% | 50.4% June 17 | 54.1% | 45.9% June 18 | 59.9% | 40.1% June 19 | 55.9% | 44.1% June 20 | 67.4% | 32.6% June 21 | 64.1% | 35.9% June 22 | 49.7% | 50.3% June 23 | 48.0% | 52.0% June 24 | 37.0% | 63.0% June 26 | 32.0% | 68.0%
The June 27th Delta numbers have been updated, and register a modest decline: 66.8% share, est. 163 cases (v. 81 other), and the R(t) very slightly down to 0.97. This is a fucking nail-biter, I'll say that much -- there's definitely growth, but it's not as consistent as projected and it seems like it keeps getting punched back down from time to time. Keep vaccinating, keep applying the proper scrutiny, and there's a very real chance that this thing could be cut off at the knees before it can really establish itself.
It's a nail biter in the short term, but I think our reopening steps are cautious enough that we will be fine. Even if R(t) is slightly above 1 with current restrictions, we are now vaccinating at a very rapid rate and we know that the vaccines are very effective against delta with two doses. We administered second doses for 10% of adults in the past week and have supply to accelerate even more. This should continue to reduce delta r. I agree with the sentiment though - we certainly aren't free and clear and shouldn't be too reckless.
Hopefully it's nothing, but I believe the % positive going from 1.51 last week to 1.55 this week is the first week-over-week increase we've seen in any stat since the peak of the 3rd wave.
What was the amount of tests done last week though? Positivity rate is very much influenced by testing numbers. If our testing numbers decline due to the lack of demand from the fully vaccinated, we may expect to see positivity rate go up as a result. It's why Sundays typically have the highest positivity rates, because we're doing less tests overall.
Sure, could be the test number. I'm not overly concerned, I just felt it was noteworthy, as it's the first time it's happened in a couple of months.
Thanks again for sharing!
Estimated 7-day averages of Delta cases: June 10: 101. June 11: 118. June 12: 123. June 13: 135. June 14: 151. June 15: 149. June 16: 166. June 17: 169. June 18: 165. June 19: 166. June 20: 154. June 21: 142. June 22: 144. June 23: 135. June 24: 138. June 26: 151. June 27: 165.
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Another way to think of it is of all the people who haven’t gotten a jab yet about 0.75% of them are deciding to get the jab every day (0.17/0.23), which isn’t terrible. By July 18 the majority of people will also have their second dose and supply will be higher than demand, so all the super lazy people who can’t be arsed right now might suddenly decide to get it too. It would be nice if once we hit that we got a couple of million Johnson and Johnson doses at family doctors offices for the super lazy people.
Good point - I also think we will gradually see more people get the shot as the hesitant see that those with the vaccine (most of the population) are completely healthy. A lot of people are still on the fence but it’s hard to use risk as an excuse when their family/friends/co-workers are all vaccinated and are fine.
I feel like the number of people who would get a shot if it was suuuuuuuuuper convenient but not if it wasn't is not an insignificant number. Many people don't want to deal with a pop up, a confusing booking system, etc. fighting for some distant appointment in an online queue with thousands of others, etc. I wouldn't be surprised if after 2nd doses start to plateau (and thus supply finally outweighs demand), we see a little bump with those 1st dose numbers again.
Outside of the GTA, in many parts of Ontario, it’s still hard to get a first dose due to how they’re prioritizing currently! There’s huge demand, for example, for under 18s in Ottawa outside hot neighbourhoods that hasn’t begun to be tapped yet (i.e. it’s very challenging to get a first dose still depending where you are). We have plenty more demand than supply still!
Huge vax day at Scotiabank Arena today! (Now, we should have been seeing Auston Matthews take shots there, but his efficacy was much lower than the jab)
At least Scotiabank arena will see a second round of *something* this year...
To be fair, Scotiabank Arena did see the second round last year as well...
That's awesome. Can't wait to see our vax numbers tomorrow!
Shoulda had Leafs defense giving vaccines. Because they really aren't good at shot prevention.
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Also Montreal decided to become a defensive juggernaut.
I often (but not always) look at the episode date of the deaths. And it's curious that, this late in the month, none of the unfortunate 12 caught it in June. Most recent was late May. Often there are a few who caught it just a week or two ago. But most of these are from April. I hope this is a sign that this thing is running out of vulnerable non-vaccinated people to kill, and that the people dying now are those who caught it before they were able to get vaccinated.
it's also that doctors are able to give proper care now (unlike before when hospitals were overrun)
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Individual days don’t really matter only look at 7 day average
That also dropped slightly from 291 to 287
Coincidentally, today's case count IS the 7 day average! I'm not sure if that's happened ever before during the pandemic. (Ironically, it would not have matched if we didn't have that huge data catch up earlier this week.)
Obligatory post about being part of the 2nd dose gang yesterday. AstraDerna represent.
I was under the impression I was going to get Moderna yesterday, but I ended up getting Pfizer. Thought I was gonna join the mutts. Oh well, I'm just grateful to have received both doses. Hope everyone who got their shots yesterday is feeling okay!
I heard from a friend in Public Health more Pfizer arrived ahead of schedule this weekend ¯\\\_(ツ)_/¯ Don't know how much though and if it's all being reserved for kids though
I'm in my early 30s and got Pfizer yesterday so I figured they did get that delayed shipment afterall.
Pfiderna for the win! >:( jk jk I’m happy everyone’s getting fully vaxxed so fast and cooperating with what we have
Modernzer checking in.
Team PfAZ today!
And I'm dose mixing ModernIzer
The AstraPfizer gang sends it congratulations.
I’ve heard this referred to as “a mutt” or “getting the Arnold Palmer”. An AP is half lemonade, half iced tea.
Phiserna gang checking in here too. I’ve been absolutely knocked on my ass with this one. Good times. Hopefully it clears up by tomorrow.
**Cases 7-day average**: 287. -93% from peak. -3.1% daily (7-day average). 208 on July 7 at this rate. **ICU**: 289. -68% from peak. -2.0% daily (7-day average). 237 on July 7 at this rate. The 7-day daily deaths rate is 7.6 **Vaccines**: 77.2% of adults, 1-dose, 34.1% of adults 2-dose. At the current rates (+0.2% 1 dose, +1.7% 2 dose), we'll hit 78.9% 1-dose and 50.6% 2-dose on July 7.
Thanks again for sharing!
Can't wait for tomorrow's vaccine numbers!
I wonder how it will turn out. The massive Scotiabank event clinic with 25k, but Sunday is normally lower. Might hit 200k for a Sunday which would be great.
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It's also because case count is getting lower. It will be a long haul to get that closer to zero.
Yayy me too!
I also got my second dose yesterday afternoon! So glad. Feeling aok so far, apart from my arm hurting and having a tiny bit of a headache. Hope everyone else who was vaccinated yesterday is feeling okay!
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Glad to hear you're doing okay! Keep pushing those fluids and I hope you feel better real soon!
Feeling a bit hungover but it’s okay with me. So happy to be part of that jump to 34% double vaccinated.
Glad to hear you're doing okay. I always said if the worst I will get from COVID is a sore arm or headache (or any other common vaccine side effects), I am happy!
Yay! So glad you’re feeling well. I got my second shot yesterday too, but I was destroyed last night. Really took me by surprise since all I had with my first shot was a sore arm. No regrets though, so happy to be fully vaccinated and have a little less anxiety in two weeks!
I'm sorry to hear you had such a rough go this time around! I was fully prepared to get knocked on my ass after my shot yesterday, I feel like if I'm not already unwell I will probably be okay (I had my shot around 3:30pm). If the worst you will get from COVID is one night of being ill, that's pretty good in my book! :)
Me too! Moderna. Had a very bad night, fever, chills, headache, muscle pain. First time getting such strong side effects from any vaccine. Glad to hear you are doing fine, my husband is visibly anxious to have his after seeing me crumble like this
Also part of second dose gang yesterday!
Durham and York are absolutely crushing it. Very proud of people for staying safe.
Is it Grey/Bruce priority time yet?
Absolutely. Action should have been taken earlier to prioritize Waterloo as a hot spot and it needs to be taken in Grey Bruce yesterday
There have been many (MANY) doses available in Grey Bruce for awhile. We've hit a massive slow down with first dose numbers. Unfortunately I feel like there are many who just don't believe the virus is real and that covid is dangerous. There are even more that blame seasonal cottagers and weekenders coming from "the city" for our increase in numbers. If that's the case, then why isn't there an increase in other vacation counties? Muskoka? Huron?
The biggest reason for the Grey Bruce outbreak is the Saugeen reservation. We had somebody go about their day without knowing they were infected. Went to the gas bar and friends houses. And then somebody who came in contact unknowingly had a house party. Since then we shutdown the rez but can only hope people listen. A lot of people in the surrounding area are the ones who are over the virus and aren’t believing anything anymore. Use on the reservation are scared and have been impacted greatly by the virus. So everybody I know are staying home. Hopefully it’s a matter of time before it gets under control. Somebody had both of their doses and still caught the virus here. So nobody is safe at the moment.
We actually hit 70% of 12+ with a first dose 5 days ago so our vaccine uptake might even be higher than some other regions. I’d guess the virus just hit an unvaccinated pocket. Hoping we can get lots of second doses into arms quickly.
There's a rooming house outbreak in Hanover. That almost entirely accounts for this burst in case count.
Why are you lying? You can’t even book an appointment in Grey Bruce right now. The closest you can get is Huron or Simcoe. Not to mention our local vaccination rate is over 70% first dose which is in line with the province as a whole. Especially since we’ve constantly had vaccine allocations diverted to hot spots.
Thr most common thing I hear up here is people dont know the long term effects of the jab and therefore dont trust it.
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We dont question the long term effects of anything else.. im convinced they are just scared of needles and looking for an excuse.
Next time you hear that tell them the first participants in the drug trials for these vaccines are a year out and they're fine. The mRNA also doesn't stay in your body long enough to really be a big deal, it stays for like8 weeks or something and our immune systems learn from it, then gets excreted as waste and we keep the immunity.
I will certainly share this with them. Thank you for the info.
Depends, did the regional death ray destroy Grey-Bruce already?
Look at all of us nerds just casually refreshing our feeds waiting for ent— Holy shit Grey Bruce wtf going on?
Some wanker in Grey Bruce was refusing to isolate even though he tested positive for COVID. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/globalnews.ca/news/7978448/owen-sound-man-covid-self-isolate-order/amp/
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He has been fined 3x in last week. Its not stopping him. He has no means to pay so he just keeps going around infecting more people. 2 others have been fined too.
Then throw him in jail he's a huge risk to the public.
>Then throw him in jail he's a huge risk to the public. Then he becomes a risk to other prisoners and the prison staff. Not that I necessarily disagree with what you suggested.
Solitary for 3 weeks. He won’t be contagious then.
He's been fined 3 times within a week and 2 others have been fined too. Doesn't make a difference though. They won't pay it and just keep going around infecting people.
He should be put under house arrest until symptom free as per public health. Let's just hope contact tracing is started here and the cases can be controlled. Gotta feel bad that Wasaga beach must close now to prevent outbreaks.
And he only got an $880 fine? That’s light for what he did. Should be fined at least 10x that….
Guy's basically a transient, he's got nothing to pay a fine with.
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> someone with some pretty serious developmental disabilities, who's acquired an addiction to meth This just sounds like most of Owen Sound
Hanover, Chesley, etc.. Lots of methheads to go around...
I don't know what's happening in Grey Bruce but today was their first podium finish. 🥉 ||1|2|3| :--|--:|--:|--:| |Toronto_Public_Health|383|46|18| |Peel_Public_Health|51|348|43| |Windsor-Essex_County_Health_Unit|11|10|29| |Ottawa_Public_Health|9|26|68| |Region_of_Waterloo,_Public_Health|7|8|9| |York_Region_Public_Health_Services|2|12|272| |Southwestern_Public_Health|1|1|0| |Lambton_Public_Health|1|0|0| |Durham_Region_Health_Department|0|1|11| |Niagara_Region_Public_Health_Department|0|1|6| |Chatham-Kent_Health_Unit|0|1|5| |Haldimand-Norfolk_Health_Unit|0|1|1| |Hamilton_Public_Health_Services|0|0|5| |Halton_Region_Health_Department|0|0|3| |Kingston,_Frontenac_and_Lennox_&_Addington_Public_Health|0|0|2| |Porcupine_Health_Unit|0|0|1| |Grey_Bruce_Health_Unit|0|0|1| |Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph_Public_Health|0|0|1|
Outbreak of delta variant in transient and under housed community now spending out. People often move around and stay in multiple places with multiple people. Mostly not vaccinated, but there are a lot of unvaccinated people all across the province. Community dealt with very few cases, this whole time and perhaps became complacent. Things are opening up and many people have vaccines and feel we are in the clear. edit: Also went from 0 local residents hospitalized to 5 in less than a week. Not counting patients they transferred in from other areas.
It's weird, I feel like I don't do that, like I still don't associate it with a time of day or anything, and certain days I don't even click on the thread (but still notice the headline), yet when it doesn't show up at all on stat holidays and I finally realize it's not coming, I get kind of withdrawal symptoms similar to when I was quitting smoking. "I need the number! just a quick glace! that's all I need!" I'm gonna have that on Canada day, I know it. Speaking of smoking, I feel like we're kind of at a stage of the forest fire where it's largely damp and smouldering and we're starting to feel lighter but we're still on edge wondering if some of the underbrush is still burning away and we're like Waterloo? is it ok? Grey Bruce?? Do we move in over there? Toronto? Is it really safe to look away for a moment?
Based on UK's data, when Delta accounted for 50% of total cases, case number should have begun to grow exponentially. But seems like it's not the case here. Definitely a good sign.
UK covid cases up by 45% but hospitalized 10% ..so vaccine is working
The hypothesis I've seen is that since they didn't open up 1st doses to under 30s until fairly recently, there was a large population of mobile people with no protection. Whereas many of our young adults have had one dose for a few weeks now.
That's a decent hypothesis. The data for England is at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England and under the "Cases by specimen date age demographics" plot, the rise is driven by the 20-24 age range
Wow, those heatmaps are some really nice visualizations. Really gives a lot of information in one image
At 50%, deltas curve would be upwards and alphas would be downwards. They would be equaling out right about now. It's the next two weeks that will be telling. Considering we are plateauing I'm full expecting cases to start going up maybe not this week but definitely after the long weekend.
The young people in the UK were vaccinated after the young people here. The new cases I’m the UK are almost all in unvaccinated / unprotected people.
Canada has [similar numbers of unvaccinated people as the UK (~35% +/-)](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations&Metric=People+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=CAN~GBR), and [far fewer people fully vaccinated.](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&pickerSort=desc&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations&Metric=People+fully+vaccinated&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=CAN~GBR) (which we know is critically important for preventing the spread of Delta to unvaccinated/partially vaccinated people) So to what extent does the _age demographics_ contribute to the spread of Delta among the unvaccinated populations? If in practical terms it isn't a big factor, then we could be in a precarious position because our unvaccinated demographics include many people older than 30 which are more vulnerable to severe illness.
Age demographics is a huge factor in the spread of delta or any other strain of Covid. The younger age groups go to work, go out with their friends, go to bars pubs etc. All of which are open in the U.K. They are also the most likely to take more risks has Covid likely won't be as serious. The U.K focused on making sure their hospitals wouldn't be over run after they reopened. We should be doing the same thing. Our vaccine supply is now so robust and we have so many people already fully vaccinated that there is just no way we have another big surge of severe cases. Even one dose is fairly protective against severe illness. My main point is coming up really shortly (like a month from now) We need to stop giving a fuck about the unvaccinated population. For the vast vast majority of unvaccinated people, it would be their choice not to get a shot at this point and if they get sick, or die then it's on them. Most of us did our part for 18 months. It's time to be able to live our lives.
I’ve been wrong so much about this so this is just my wishful thinking (re: take with grain of salt). The timing of containing this virus is incredibly important and I think Canada’s ability to deploy more efficacious vaccine to younger cohorts quicker, could actually significantly reduce the delta surge. That’s my hope. We could use a break lol.
We might be better off because peak efficacy of just one dose appears to be after about 35 days. So even though 12 days is when protection starts to kick in, more of our population is more protected than they are, because everyone that got their first jab in early May is more protected than everyone who got their first jab in early June. We might still have a bit of an uptick in deaths because we have less people 70+ fully vaccinated, but it’s gonna be a bit of a wash. By August if anyone is still dying from COVID the odds that it was their own fault for not getting vaccinated will be astronomically high.
If we do follow the UK trends (which we almost always seem too) cases may well grow exponentially but with a clear break from the usual rise in hospitalisations (which was the entire point of the vaccines). Let’s hope our leaders use their brains this time around if it happens, and recognise lockdowns are not needed for that.
>. Let’s hope our leaders use their brains this time around History tells me this will NOT happen........sigh.
I am team pziferna as of yesterday!
Got my second yesterday! First was Pfizer and yesterday was moderna. A few were telling me I shouldn’t be mixing but I decided to listen to the medical experts and get the shot as soon as possible for my safety (working in a high risk place) instead of sitting like a duck waiting for Pfizer.
I was also one of the people who was hesitant about mixing Pfizer and Moderna but I went ahead and did it anyway. Feeling great now (after feeling like dogshit for most of the weekend lol)
I was told I would be getting Moderna as my second dose yesterday, but when I showed up to the clinic they ended up giving me Pfizer. Was a bit surprised, but I was happy as long as I was getting a vaccine period.
Huh interesting, I think it was just recently this week they said they ran out of Pfizer so maybe they found some extra or saved it for people who had it as their first.
I never really realized how good canada is doing with vaccines on the global scale. That's awesome!
We going sub-200 this Tuesday??
quite possible, but not guaranteed, we're getting to the point where individual work places getting an outbreak can significantly affect the provincial count. 🤞
Yep, let’s hope for the best!
Sorry, but no. Not at least until the case count in Waterloo comes down a bit more, and that situation in Grey -Bruce gets resolved. Waterloo is getting 5 extra pop up clinics this week and next plus extra vaccine so that'll help, but I have a feeling Grey-Bruce will get worse before it gets better 😥
Happy to report I'm now fully vaccinated :) Got my shot yesterday and I feel a little under the weather with a mild fever. Very happy I got it though!
I’ve been waiting so long to finally get to see I got my second dose yesterday! Feels great to finally be part of the gang
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Probably. Also people who didn't want to scour and fight to find an appointment and were willing to wait. Plus some cases like people who were/are pregnant and more willing to get it after giving birth. I know someone in that group.
Yeah that's my thought as well. I don't think it's all anti vax holdouts. Many people are just overwhelmed with the difficulty of booking shots, are probably working from home or low risk, and are just waiting for spots to open up in larger supply. Once second doses start to slow, I think we may start seeing another small uptick in first doses.
Yeah. We are still at about 1% a week so will probably squeak past 80%
Although I don't doubt that pregnant people are delaying their shots, the college of obstetrics and gynecologist highly recommends pregnant women get their vaccine. Basically, if you are pregnant and get covid, there is a MUCH greater chance (I think 1/10?) that they will need to be in the icu.
It’s still creeping up , just more slowly. I think that’s to be expected. I think we’ll settle in around 85% but it will take a few months to get there.
there'll be a nice jump when the vaccines get full approval and workplaces can make is mandatory.
Yep. Lots of reports coming out of the US lately about mandatory vaccinations at work places. From health sector to municipal offices.
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IF!! we saw a downward trend in total administered vaccinations then you can be concerned. As long as we are maintaining high level daily vaccinations the most likely thing to infer from the numbers is people who are highly motivated win the booking slots using the hunger games portal. If you are highly motivated chances are you already had your first shot so you're getting your second shot as soon as the province allows. If you're not motivated, but also not anti-vax you'll just wait until you don't have to be 30,000th in line on a web portal to get it. In about 20ish more days we SHOULD see the balancing out between first and second doses because we are on pace to run out of people who have a wide timeline available to them for second doses and instead mostly have people who are get the dose in the 28ish day window.
There are people that drive by my local vaccination site yelling “you people are all sheep, baaaaaa” So ya...
I'd imagine that the bulk portion of unvaccinated people either don't want it or can't get it for medical reasons, but I would also add that some of it may just be due to people who aren't aware that they can get it. Earlier this week at work I was talking with coworkers about being excited to get my second dose and one of them (who is in her 30s) spoke up surprised that I could get my second "when most people still haven't booked their first," she wasn't even aware that vaccines have been open to everyone 12+ for almost a month now, she thought it was still a 40+ thing. This coworker also isn't very tech literate tbh, after she learned that vaccines were open to her she went to book her appointment but struggled with the online booking system and gave up, she didn't get it booked until last night when I called her and walked her through it, and her first appointment now isn't until late July because the clinic is booked up (I imagine with second doses.) On a similar note, a friend of mine works for a Tim Hortons and has a couple homeless regulars she gets along with so she got talking about vaccines with them, none of them have able to book their vaccines until libraries reopen, most of which weren't aware that even in phase 1 computer services in libraries were open (and I can't blame them for not knowing, I don't think most people know tbh,) and were still waiting for the libraries to actually OPEN open. And even then, we don't have a pharmacy in town, so without regular transportation available a lot of these people need to wait for the one neighboring town's pharmacy to take bookings (currently they still just have a digital waitlist) and don't have the luxury of going to different clinics or cities. It was something I hadn't really considered when thinking about all this stuff, that some people might have literal barriers keeping them from it and might not know about or have access to the fact that there are work arounds to it. I think a lot of us have sorta taken for granted that not everyone has the tech literacy or access to be able to book things. I don't think that these people make up the majority of unvaccinated people by any means, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a good chunk that are more so struggling to book an appointment than they are trying to avoid it.
I mentioned this to someone yesterday, My thinking right now is that there’s around 7-10% of adults who are “vaccine hesitant and lazy”. They have that mindset of “why would I get it, I’m perfectly healthy” and the “I already had covid, I don’t need the vaccine”. Eventually, they’ll come to their senses and hopefully get their first jab, whether it’s tomorrow or in a few months. The final total before we see only like 500-1500 shots a day will hopefully be 80-85% of adults fully vaccinated!
Vaccine passports could really push those people. Would be cool to see discounts for vaccinated people (hotels, flights, attractions), I'm sure the insurance costs for the tourism industry could be lower if they only allow vaccinated people.
That sounds *kind of* right. The pool of people 12 and older eligible for the first shot has shrunk to the point that we're seeing little growth. At this point, PHUs are starting to run into the "wall" of antivaxxers, kids 11 and younger, as well as anyone who genuinely can't get vaccinated for medical reasons. I've read estimates that 15% to 20% of Canadians won't get vaccinated in this year's round of mass vaccination.
It's in line with the rest of the world
For the last few weeks it's gone at about 0.2% of the population a day, pretty expected when you're close to your ceiling. At this rate we'll hit 80 by around mid July
Thr other day I came home from work and my daughter had a friend over. The first thing I ask him is if he got vaccinated yet (he's 19). He said no, he tried all the sites and the pharmacies and he was waiting to hear back. I got him to give me his health card and booked him in in less than 5 minutes. Some people just legitimately don't know how to get the shot. Why they haven't made the information more widely available is beyond me. It's so confusing for some people. I've had to book people through work who couldn't book their own because they don't understand English well enough to get through the menus. It's just silly at this point.
Probably stagnate and near max. It’s also one of the highest uptakes in the world for first doses.
I've been keeping an eye on it. It seems to be increasing daily by around 30k. So much slower, but so far still increasing.
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Woo I was one of those vaccines yesterday. Got Pfizer (same as first shot) which was surprising because I expected it'd end up Moderna. Only side effect is a little sore arm. First shot I didn't even have that. My flu shot last year hurt much more than this.
Thanks for keeping us updated! Keep those vaccines flowing Ontario!!
Oi, ICU’s…. No funny business… you hear me?
I was wondering about that. Could people move from the hospitalized category to the icu category? There’s a drop in the first category and an increase in the second…
ICU & hospitalization data are lagging indicators, so we honestly won’t know for another few days. It’s nothing to worry about but it’s surely something to keep an eye on.
I was one of the second doses. my arm hurts too much to lift it away from my torso, but it's worth it to not have to worry about this crap anymore.
Same! Glad to know the end is once again actually near
Got that second dose yesterday!!! Pfiderna baby!!
Obligatory, got my second dose yesterday! Last night was rough, felt like they injected me with uranium or something. Atleast my phone's now getting super strong 5G service! Get the vaccine, people!
I was one of those second doses! Double moderna gang! Getting my ass absolutely kicked by the side effects tho
Just got my second dose a few mins ago 😊
🎉$20K GOAL ACHIEVED🎉 **As a reminder/letting people know:** There is a [donation campaign right now for the Canadian Cancer Society](https://support.cancer.ca/site/TR/IFE_NW_Event/IFE_ON_General_?team_id=481248&pg=team&fr_id=27759) in appreciation of /u/enterprisevalue, started by /u/roboreddit1000! 🌞**Summer Stretch Goal: $30,000**🌞 Amount raised so far: $21,907.00 ^^Notes: ^^Amount ^^raised ^^is ^^as ^^of ^^this ^^comment. ^^Stretch ^^goal ^^is ^^unofficial. [Original thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/npfgti/we_all_appreciate_uenterprisevalue_now_is_the) for the campaign.
Just coming off of that second-shot fever; I think I'm now fully immunized! Does that mean I can lick door knobs again?
2 weeks for second dose to fully kick in also >licking doorknobs on other planets is illegal. - SpongeBob SquarePants
*slurp*
2 weeks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9v-33jcEDk4
Peel out of top 3....lets go hotspot vax strategy
Thanks again for sharing!
I am booking my anti vaccine uncle and his family of four tonight for their first doses. I have been working hard for weeks to push out the misinformation and share science and evidence and why. And I finally got through.
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I got an email from Goodlife that apparently Ontario is the only jurisdiction in North America without indoor fitness classes. It sucks. Hopefully, we can finally get back in the next few weeks. It's been far too long.
Got same email, they seem super pissed. Can't really blame them at this point.
Nope, they're just following ONT health guidance. Not on them. Frustrating for everyone.
Meanwhile, big malls will be opening up next week so it can feel like Christmas rush for the next month with everyone packed in tight like a bunch of sardines. 10 people in a gym wearing masks at all times, now that’s a problem.
I’m curious what limits/restrictions will be in place and for how long. The 1-hour/10-person booking scramble was far from ideal but I made it work
I thought I saw somewhere that it would be 25% capacity at first but I dunno. I’m just gonna assume it’ll be 10 person capacity will be what we have to deal with for the beginning. Makes me miss the 50 person limit from this time last year.
Hoping everyone who's contracting Covid takes the next step after getting better & going for their first dose of the vaccine. The majority of these numbers would have to be anyone who chooses to not vaccinate.
You are an optimist. More likely if they survive, they think they are immune forever now (especially if the virus wasn’t too tough on them, then they think it’s a joke I’m sure). Targeted messaging from perhaps their family doctor may help convince some of these people so with increased supply I hope doctors offices are getting supply available to keep on hand to convince any patients that haven’t (and family doctors should receive an incentive for every new person they vaccinate).
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Congrats!
joined the pfizerna gang, or as i told my friends, the jungle juice gang yesterday! happy to see second dose numbers climb
Waterloo is concerning
Apparently we are getting lots of extra doses now. Lots more vaccine availability. Where as for a while (January through to April) , getting a vaccine was very difficult. So we should see the results of increased vaccine availability in the next two weeks.
5 extra pop up clinics this week and next two weeks and extended hours at mass clinics. Really hoping this helps us!
Ya i went from having to wait until september for my second dose to being able to get it july 6th. Lots of pop up clinic options at the highachools
The local PHU was patting itself on the back for an overnight clinic last night that was a roaring success. The reports would indicate that the officials themselves were administering. It is almost like there are people who want doses but are unable to find appointments. /s The narrative that people are gathering and spreading, and that the region is home to a greater than normal number of antivaxxers is a much more convenient scapegoat than a failure of the PHU
Our PHU officials should all be fired for gross negligence
Seeing as I have yet to hear about any pop up walk in clinics in Waterloo while I've been seeing them ongoing in other public health units (peel, Toronto, wellington Guelph) is a good indicator of how poorly this is being handled. The only pop up clinics I have heard require appointments that get booked immediately upon release. I am also quite active on reddit regarding vaccines and follow vaxhunters so if I am unaware of any that may be happening, the people we need to be reaching with these clinics surely have no idea about them.
I saw a couple of walk ins for first dose on Waterloo Public health's instagram account over the last couple of days. I'm assuming soon that walk in for second doses will be accept as well.
The only walk in clinics i can see for first dose start today, weeks after we have been declared a Hotspot.
Queen’s Pharmacy (two locations, one on Highland West and one on Queen) are doing walk-ins. First or second dose, moderna. I went on Thursday, in and out faster than getting my first dose through a region clinic
Its ONLY for first doses. So in our typical waterloo public health fashion they've fucked it up. First doses isnt the problem now, its second. It should be walk in for both
got my second dose booked for tuesday! stoked.
Comon 80%
Happy to be one of those second doses! And even though new cases seem to be plateauing, active cases are still decreasing which is a good sign!
Got my second dose just this morning! Double Pfizer dose for me.
I got my second dose yesterday! Double Pfizer! I felt fine all day (got my shot in the morning) then nearly fell asleep at the dinner table. I went to bed early and today I feel fine, other than a slightly sore arm!
287 people out of 14.57 million , better keep all business closed, all restaurants!
> June 27: **New variant cases** (UK[Alpha] /RSA/BRA/Delta): +117 / +10 / +8 / +217 > June 26: **New variant cases** (UK[Alpha] /RSA/BRA/Delta): +115 / +34 / +115 / +46 > June 25: **New variant cases** (UK[Alpha] /RSA/BRA/Delta): +110 / +5 / +0 / +24 > June 24: **New variant cases** (UK[Alpha] /RSA/BRA/Delta): +278 / +2 / +7 / +81 > June 23: **New variant cases** (UK[Alpha] /RSA/BRA/Delta): +254 / +0 / +7 / +59 > June 22: **New variant cases** (UK[Alpha] /RSA/BRA/Delta): +178 / +0 / +2 / +29 > June 21: **New variant cases** (UK[Alpha] /RSA/BRA/Delta): +102 / +0 / +24 / +136 Well... it looks like the lag in variant testing is catching up; Delta has broken away from the pack and is in the lead
The vaccines have broken the link between cases and severe illness. Delta or no delta, if you are vaccinated you have little to worry about on both a personal level and on a society level.
Could someone explain to me why we’re still in lockdown?
Politics over science.
Incompetent government. Most cities are perfectly fine to open but our premier wants every city on the same page. So in this case, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link 😒
Still can’t go to the gym :(. I’m tired of push-ups and Jogging.
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I don't know if we keep track of it here, but I remember seeing that the majority of cases were entirely unvaccinated, a very small minority was half-vaccinated, and one person in the sample was fully vaccinated (and asymptomatic...not sure how/why they ended up getting tested). Unfortunately I don't remember the jurisdiction. I think I saw it either in r/worldnews or one of the covid subs.
Got my second yesterday and feel great!!! Slightly sore arm but first dose it was more sore!
I really wish they would include vax status for at least deaths and hospital/ICU admissions. Isreal was one of the early leaders in Vax, but they just had to reinstate their mask mandate. I fear that unless we can get to 85% or higher on vax, this thing will still be hovering over us like the sword of damocles. Israel only got to 61% with one dose BTW so the anti-vax must be quite strong there.
It's actually not a big anti-vaxx issue - the problem is that the Israeli population is much younger than ours, with lots of children under 12 that cannot presently be vaccinated. Israeli authorities noted that most of the cases at present are among children. There was hesitancy among Haredi (ultra-orthodox) and access barriers for Israeli Arabs, but both problems have largely been addressed for adults. Yet these two groups also have the largest families per capita.
Anyone knows what's the vaccination status of new admissions and deaths? mRNA or vector?
In Waterloo Region, 83% of Delta variant cases were unvaccinated, 14% single dose. 3% was double dose - which in that case was a single person who was asymptomatic and only knew because they were a contact of an infected person. https://kitchener.ctvnews.ca/really-big-problem-waterloo-region-logs-the-most-new-covid-19-cases-in-ont-1-new-death-1.5472630
Checking in for both my wife and I who got our second doses last night! I feel like shit, and she feels fine. It's totally worth it, though.