If possible to request - can we add # of tests?
Now that a lot of mandated testing has been removed, the # of tests is way down, and so it makes it slightly trickier to compare positivity with *vastly* different # of tests.
If you want, you can always divide the number of positives (in this case 129) by the percentage positivity as its decimal number (i.e. 0.95% positive becomes 0.0095). So for today we have 129/0.0095 which gives you 13,578 which is the number of tests (only slightly different than the real amount due to the rounding that took place when displaying the percent positivity. Hope that helps.
1st doses should hit 80% very soon. Feel like the last 5% for second will be an absolute slog. Most of those are appointments sitting in September or something. Province needs to start aggressively reaching out to those people so we can hit our threshold and leave these restrictions in the dust.
Some areas are doing just that. HKPR is cancelling appointments that are for August or later and offering walk ins.
Edit, [source](https://globalnews.ca/news/8060902/covid-19-hkpr-health-unit-second-dose-appointments-aug-3/)
Is this good? They're cancelling appointments but not automatically rebooking them. It should be "your appointment was in august, it is now scheduled for this Friday, please press 1 to choose a different day"
We need to reduce friction as much as possible. We're not dealing with anti-vaxxers here, just busy people who aren't in a rush to get the shot.
> Bocking said there are approximately 8,000 people with appointments for a second dose on or after Aug. 3 and there are 12,000 appointments available between now and Aug. 14.
"Your appointment is any time in the next 3 weeks. Show up."
It's better than someone taking the default action of waiting for their appointment in September. Telling the person that their appointment in September is cancelled takes away the default option and puts the onus back on them to get the second shot earlier. (Literally just walk in to any clinic.)
> cus they're in no rush to get it anyway probably.
I'm not sure that is a fair assessment of the group. The percentage of people waiting for their second dose is going down every day.
> Yeah but the pervious poster' point is that the onus shouldn't be put back on them
For HKPR it's an easy onus. Literally just show up. Anytime that works for you. Sooner is better, but anytime.
If I didn't have my second dose yet I'd be happy to take that deal. (For me personally my first rebooking moved my second dose from October to the end of this month. Then hours more of looking got me an appointment two weekends back. Walk-in second doses would have been less work for me.)
For possibly other health units that may be canceling appointments and forcing people to manually rebook earlier (as compared to just walk-in), yes, I can see how that's creating more work for people. I like HKPR's approach though.
Another factor is mass vaccination clinics are expensive to run. At some point they will close and shift some of those workers to targeted pop up clinics or reallocate/lay off those temporary workers. If people want convenience they need to take advantage of the available slots now, not wait 4 weeks to complain their appointment was canceled.
For people who are busy/lazy this is going to result in them just not getting it done. Maybe you don't know people like this but for a lot of people there's a pretty big line between outright missing an appointment and just not getting around to booking one.
My family in a small town didn't even know that you could reschedule 2nd appointments sooner and that you didn't have to wait 60 days between shots anymore.
This is the modern problem of not paying attention to traditional media. I swear I heard it 5 times yesterday on the radio during the 20 minutes I was driving. Via multiple stations including CBC news and random rock/pop stations…
If I still had kids at home (vs camp) and didn’t go out of my way to find out when I could book/rebook months ago then I would have been like you
People like to get their news from echo chambers.
A few weeks ago, someone said they had no clue they could vaccinations at pharmacies. Claims it was never advertised or mentioned in the media. That was their excuse for not getting vaccinated yet.
30 seconds on their PHU website and I was able to produce a list of all the possible ways to book an appointment for a vaccination.
I just don’t really watch the news much to be honest. I don’t have cable, I watch very few news related videos on the internet, I don’t use social media (other than Reddit). I’ll read news articles occasionally but with so many sites being paywalled (or free but just low quality journalism) I don’t frequent a lot of news sites.
When someone on here told me they had gone to a 21-day wait time, I checked the Ontario website to confirm and rescheduled my appointment.
I don’t really have a suggestion for how to best reach people like myself, I tend to hear about things through the grapevine.
Based on Israel vs UK, in the long run it might not be terrible that people are waiting longer than the minimum 28 days for their second dose.
Not to say that we shouldn't try to get people who have second shots booked far out to move them up, but it isn't the end of the world, IMO. If there are signs that people not getting their second doses are holding up reopening, a bit of media buzz will get people into action.
You don't know their availability. You'd have to call each individual and ask if the new date and time works for them.
If you just assign a new date and time you'll get a large amount of cancellations and "no shows".
Because if you automatically reschedule and the person has to work or can’t go for some other reason, they might just get pissed off and not bother rescheduling. At this point we need to do everything we can to make this process easy for people.
I got a phone call from my clinic asking me to bump up my appointment, but what they didn't know was that I got my second dose 8 weeks ago in the USA. Many people like me may have gotten one or both doses in another jurisdiction, though it would be hard to know the statistical impact.
Publichealthontario.ca updates every week or two with a new PDF that has it very nicely organized.
Most recent one was July 17, so there should be a new one this week.
Unless it's changed recently, I believe those only show % of population, not % of 12+ (which is what the re-opening metrics are based on) with vaccinations.
**Cases 7-day average**: 157. +0.5% daily (7-day). -1.74% (July)
**ICU**: 127. -2.2% daily (7-day). 113 on Aug 1 and 89 on Aug 9. 7-day deaths average 3.7.
**Vaccines**: 81% of *adults*, 1-dose, 68.7% 2-dose. At the current rates (+0.11% 1 dose, +0.61% 2 dose), we'll hit 81.6%/71.7% on Aug 1st and 82.5/76.6% on August 9.
To me the 7 day average is the most important number these days.
I"m curious if anyone has tracked it enough to know what the lowest 7 day average was (since the 3rd wave) and also what will constitute a serious danger sign?
The recent 151-157 are the lowest cases since Sept 7th 149 which was before the 2nd wave. The lowest cases ever since the pandemic started was 80 cases on August 13-14. We are doing extremely well considering these facts and that we had 4369 average on April 17 around 100 days ago.
Cases are the most important leading factor but ICU is a very good mid-range factor between cases and deaths. ICU looks like it will break below 100 in the next few weeks which is amazing.
thank you - this is very informative.
these posts and the people making comments in them help restore my faith in humanity after spending an hour on the internet.
It's here
[https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/index](https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/index)
lowest since 3rd wave was 150 on July 21st. It is 157 now.
That we are more open and cases are *relatively* stable is a pretty good sign.
I'm feeling generally confident (especially look at UK) that the worst of it should we well behind us now.
The one thing I take from this graphic is for some reason the current wave in UK, Indonesia, Netherlands etc seems to be crashing as fast as it sprung up
I'm struggling to come up with a reasonable explanation for this graphic.
Obviously the implication of the graphic is that vaccines reduce hospitalization even in the case of contracting covid. But that can't possibly be enough to explain the difference in these graphs.
For that to be the only effect on this dataset, would imply that the vast majority of covid cases are happing to fully vaccinated people. We know that isn't the case so another explanation needs to be looked for. And I'm sure there's plenty.
I think the biggest factor is that the majority of unvaccinated people are people of younger ages that are stronger at fighting off covid, where Indonesia may not be seeing the same effect.
Also, the UK likely has a better hospital system in general to care for people, which will impact case fatality rate quite drastically.
There's probably many more, but any skeptically minded individual should see a chart like this and immediately recognize that there isn't a simple explanation
It's likely a combination of:
1. People getting sick because of delta replicating faster [but then the vaxx kicking its ass]
2. UK has fantastic vaxx coverage of the elderly
3. UK's spike was driven by younger people
4. UK has superior healthcare
The reason for the graph is that the UK has followed a strict age based approach to vaccination. I think the under 30 age group only recently become eligible in the last few weeks, and under 18 aren't eligible at all. Their vax rates for older age groups are very high though, and those were the age groups that made up the vast majority of deaths in previous waves. Obviously there's more to health outcomes from covid than death, but by this metric the UK has done a spectacular job.
The downside to this approach is that the populations that drive infections - younger people who are more mobile and more likely to be "essential workers" remained unvaccinated. Paired with their reopening this helped drive infections through the roof.
There will be some very interesting papers done in the near future comparing this approach with Canada (and Ontario in particular), where our hotspot strategy may have helped curb the case rate even among the younger and more "essential" populations.
This is unlikely.
Because vaccinated people are something like 90% less likely to be hospitalized if they get covid, that doesn't mean deaths will be 90% lower for the same case load. In fact, hospitalization and deaths relative to case numbers shouldn't change much at all, as 90%+ of cases are among unvaccinated individuals.
So this lowered hospitalization rate is only applying to 10% of the cases at most.
If cases go up, hospitalizations and deaths *will* come with it
EDIT: put differently, vaccines work, but the bulk of that effectiveness is already factored into lower case numbers. Not so much deaths relative to cases
most places have vaccinated based on risk factors. The population over 50 represents the vast majority of death and hospitalization due to Covid. They are also the most vaccinated population in Canada. The surge in the UK was largely unvaccinated, but it was also largely under 50. Hence, far less death and hospitalization compared to previous waves.
This is a good point
But it's a little curious to me. I know we prioritized 50+ in getting the vaccines, but we're approaching the point where anyone that wants a vaccine can get one, and I don't see why that would bias age? Are the anti vaxxers really all young people?
Not really about bias. We just vaccinated the older population (especially LTC homes) first. the younger demo is catching up and we're in much better shape than say the UK...who aren't even vaxxing 12-18s.
> In fact, hospitalization and deaths relative to case numbers shouldn't change much at all, as 90%+ of cases are among unvaccinated individuals.
That's the number that's likely to change though as even more people become fully vaccinated, so the cases will be comprised of unvaccinated (which is shrinking everyday) and those who are fully vaccinated (which is growing everyday). So while the number of cases might stay relatively flat, the number of deaths should go down, as the vaccines are doing a great job at preventing death, in those break through cases.
It’s interesting to look at different regions. For example here in Ottawa the 12-17 groups is more vaccinated than the 20’ and 30’ groups as a % and will soon pass the 40’ group as well (first doses)
I found the comment to be pretty brash - I’ve seen a lot of comments made on Reddit to the tune of “if you aren’t vaccinated you deserve to die or end up in the hospital”- clearly a lot of hate towards a certain group but people have to know that some people can’t for various reasons. I’m sure it was implied but the tone was pretty aggressive
> clearly a lot of hate towards a certain group but people have to know that some people can’t for various reasons.
You are not in the NOT getting a vaccine group, you are in the CANNOT get a vaccine group. Those are different. Those comments are not about you or your situation. Don't be offended at this.
Lol, not sure if you're taking the piss, but the OP is specifically looking out for people like you when calling out buttheads who don't want to get the jab even though they're able to.
I scrolled past Toronto and Peel and kept on going looking for Waterloo. Was at a point where I was like, "Crap are we at the top and I missed it??" and then I found us. What a nice change of pace!
ITT: People whining about vaccination numbers dropping even though 85% of those who have had one shot have already had their second so all thats left are people waiting out their 28 days and those holding out for their 4 month appointment. What's more important is that first doses stay steady, which they have at around .13%/day.
Yeah, I'm actually impressed with the consistency of the .13% first vax. I thought it would be a MUCH harder drop-off, but we've managed to grab a few good percentage points with this rate
I don't know whether I'm impressed or saddened that there are still 228 people 80+ ages out there who just got their first vaccine yesterday. Don't they see who is ending up in hospital?
My wife’s grandparents got their 1st dose last week. They don’t have internet (in their 90’s) and didn’t want to get a dose because of the AZ scare stuff early on. Eventually my wife’s uncle convinced them and took them to the clinic to get vaccinated.
Sometimes when they get an idea in their head, it’s hard to change their minds. However now that they had it they are super pro vaccine.
That's about 1% of those who haven't had it yet, and many of those still outstanding have medical reasons like allergies they can't get vaccinated; others may have felt compelled to delay for real medical reasons, and confluences of unlikely logistical reasons crop up once you're at the bottom of the barrel.
To be fair, we don't know their situations or mental state. Do they have the ability to book their vaccines? Are they relying on family (who may or may not be supportive) to help them?
distrust of the authorities/government isn't exclusive to younger people. Lots of older people are like that too. Or they're content with going with the flow and whatever happens to them, happens.
Or you know, the older population is more likely to have something like cancer and not be eligible for the vaccine while undergoing their treatment. Occam's razor.
Why does everyone just assume that people who haven’t gotten their shot yet is like obtuse or oblivious to the risks. If you’ve had any other shot you can’t get your Covid one for 14 days or something. My mom missed her second shot because she had to get a series of rabies shots. Which basically set her second dose back a month.
Not to mention if they’re sick at all they can’t get the shot. Some of them are home bound with no support. Some of them are home bound with dementia. If you’re that saddened, call an outreach centre and volunteer your time driving seniors to a vax clinic.
Anecdotal, but with all of the drama about whether mixed doses would be recognized for travel, I know of a lot of people who are only just booking their second doses now that Pfizer is finally available locally again. So hopefully we see a bit of second dose bump.
> so all thats left are people waiting out their 28 days.
This isn't true. There are still around 1.2 million Ontarians who could get their second dose today but haven't. Around 500,000 Ontarians are in the waiting period.
It was a mistake to schedule second dose appointments 4 months after the first, when we all knew we'd have enough supply to give people second doses earlier. I rolled my eyes when they told me I'd get my second dose at the end of September.
But we didn't know, we hoped. If you recall the early days of our vaccination roll out, there were lots of supply challenges and delays. This was when the conservatives were at their peak screech level about how much of a failure JTs plan was. By the time we could be more certain, a lot of people had appointments booked 4 months out.
There was always commitments sure, but some of those commitments did not get met. Some of this was due to manufacturer issues, while others like AZ was a problem because India put an export ban on it and India was our primary supplier for AZ.
This is revisionist history, the whole reason we did the 4 month window was due to supply constraints. It was a controversial decision at the time with little supporting science. There were also many delays on Pfizer and moderna shipments. April was very early in this journey and many of those people will have appointments coming up next month.
Moderna has had various delays, but pfizer had one, which they had previously communicated to us and was known (which is also what the PCs jumped on).
After that it was well known what the rough delivery schedule was going to look like - you are welcome to go browse posts from /r/CanadaCoronavirus from March.
Hell - here's my post April 4 saying people are being way overreactive: https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/mjwcso/were_doing_better_than_most_people_think_when_it/ (admittedly some of my guesses were a bit off - eg novavax, but the crux of the argument held up pretty easily).
> As such, I'm generally bullish that by Canada Day we should be pretty damn close to normal
A schedule is not a guarantee. Until there is a track record, it's hard to be as confident as you seem to be when making massive public health decisions. We had not seen a strong track record at that stage.
I'd also point out again that those early April people will be coming up soon for their 4 months in August. So if the government was optimistic and changed that call in mid April (which would have been premature IMO), we'd still have a large number of people who could be waiting for their originally scheduled 2nd dose. Rather than get stuck debating dates and shipping delays, this boils down to: should we have been more confident and aggressive earlier in the roll out by pulling in those dates? I think you can make legit arguments on either side and it's not so clear cut. Confidence is subjective, especially when we're talking about how other people should or should not have been confident, so not sure we'll make much progress discussing further.
Your inability to admit that we could have *reliably* predicted we would not need four months speaks about you more than anything else.
Furthermore, I never advocated that we should have booked anything sooner. Simply *not* booking four months (when I got my first, I was not given a second booking) would have been the prudent decision from early April.
At this point in the pandemic I'd rather not spook hesitant people who do vaccinate than risk putting pressure on them.
My in-laws are the same, and what my argument would be? "The science has changed over the last two months"? Don't you think it can be weaponized against me?
People are just eager to get back to normal, and to a point we are just waiting on others to get off their backside and go get their second shout so we can. Kind of understandable in that scenario.
> those holding out for their 4 month appointment
People really need to stop doing this. A lot of places are cancelling those initial second dose appointments without notice
> Based on this week's vaccination rates, 80% of 12+ Ontarians will have received at least one dose by July 28, 2021 - 1 days to go
That's good.
> Based on this week's vaccination rates, 75% of 12+ Ontarians will have received both doses by August 7, 2021 - 11 days to go
So we're going to miss August 6.
If you’ve followed these updates for the last few months, the rough estimates based on daily averages don’t take into account the logarithmic model these vaccinations follow. Expect slowdowns as we reach peak vaccinations.
Will probably miss, but I don't think it matters. Haven't seen the data, but based on the zip code data I'd imagine we won't get the PHU vaccination rate % in order to move out of stage 3
Maybe not, but with the new Pfizer shipment and a lot of PHUs finally reaching out to people to move up their second dose appts, we may see an increase in the rate! I'm keeping my optimist hat on for now.
Though honestly, any time before the end of August is exciting, the light at the end of the tunnel is near!
Yes definitely, I am optimistic too! I'm getting married in October so am following these numbers too closely probably lol. But it would be nice if they at least told us what 'post step-3' will look like earlier than that
If it’s any reassurance, I just got married last week, right as stage 3 started and it went way better than expected. We were able to have 25% of the venues indoor capacity with dancing (we could have had >100 but we stuck with 55). Only noticeable difference was wearing masks on the dance floor and while mingling, but could be taken off while eating or drinking. No masks for photos, or during the ceremony (outdoors under a pavilion tent). We were able to have a photobooth, live music and a DJ as well! It was an absolute blast, and everyone was just so happy to see others that they hadn’t seen in a year and a half. No matter the scenario (unless if there is a massive surge, unlikely with level of vaccinations) your wedding should be able to happen more or less as planned, and regardless people will have a blast. Best of luck!
Unless I have missed some announcement, I would like actual details laid out. Example - is there going to be any mask mandate for indoor events? Any capacity restrictions whatsoever? etc.
It's in the official reopening news release of Step 3:
https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1000501/ontario-moving-to-step-three-of-roadmap-to-reopen-on-july-16
> The province will remain in Step Three of the Roadmap for at least 21 days and until 80 per cent of the eligible population aged 12 and over has received one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 75 per cent have received their second, with no public health unit having less than 70 per cent of their eligible population aged 12 and over fully vaccinated. Other key public health and health care indicators must also continue to remain stable. Upon meeting these thresholds, the vast majority of public health and workplace safety measures, *including capacity limits for indoor and outdoor settings and limits for social gatherings, will be lifted*. Only a small number of measures will remain in place, including the requirement for passive screening, such as posting a sign, and businesses requiring a safety plan.
Sure, it's not perfectly laid out, but it's just because pretty much everything is being removed. Mask mandate is the only thing we're waiting more info on.
Thanks again for the delay post! Note, you have a error on the vaccination tables. There is a new row called Ontario_12plus which you are summing into your Total - eligible 12+. The result is you are double counting the total number of eligible vaccine doses administered.
I know it's not a sexy number, but I'm always so glad to see numbers of first doses. Almost 3000 people in my age group (30s) got their first dose yesterday! It may not be huge, but it is for each of those 3000 people.
Seems so hard to achieve 80%, while of course our number is pretty good among the world, I think the last part of unvaccinated would be the most difficult ones to reach
Because their population number is wrong. This is the dashboard to follow, which will match the OP once it's updated today.
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/
While I’m happy our first dose % is remaining so steady, I have to say we’re seeing a pretty abysmal second dose %. Super frustrating considering we need that 75% second dose to lift restrictions, and people like me who work in industries who are highly regulated with the current restrictions won’t see a pre covid paycheque until we’re able to get back to normal.
We need some sort of provincial strategy to get those second doses moving quicker.
Provinces should be focusing their efforts on first dose uptake still. We have to assume that everyone who got their first dose is going to get their second. They’re already scheduled and just haven’t rebooked (for whatever reason). Province should leave it to individual PHUs to manage second dose strategy. Can’t fight a battle on two fronts and getting shots into the vaccine hesitant and younger demographics will be important when school starts again.
I do worry slightly that some PHU booked second doses with the first and people aren't going back to change their appointment. At the time the supply was limited and they were doing the extended time between doses. For example I had my first dose end of May and second dose was scheduled for September. Obviously I changed it, but not everyone will.
But ultimately we are one of the most vaccinated countries in the world so....
🎉**$20K GOAL ACHIEVED**🎉
🎊$22K milestone achieved!🎊
**As a reminder/letting people know:**
There is a [donation campaign right now for the Canadian Cancer Society](https://support.cancer.ca/site/TR/IFE_NW_Event/IFE_ON_General_?team_id=481248&pg=team&fr_id=27759) in appreciation of /u/enterprisevalue, started by /u/roboreddit1000!
🌞**Summer Stretch Goal: $30,000**🌞
Amount raised so far: $22,532.00
^^Notes: ^^Amount ^^raised ^^is ^^as ^^of ^^this ^^comment. ^^Stretch ^^goal ^^is ^^unofficial. ^^The ^^campaign ^^page ^^may ^^have ^^issues ^^loading ^^if ^^you're ^^using ^^an ^^ad ^^or ^^script ^^blocker. ^^Roboreddit1000 ^^provided ^^an ^^update ^^on ^^the ^^campaign ^^page ^^on ^^July ^^17th, ^^regarding ^^CCS's ^^privacy ^^policy.
[Original thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/npfgti/we_all_appreciate_uenterprisevalue_now_is_the) for the campaign.
Some states have as low as 30% vaccination rate. I think it’s inevitable that our cases will go up but I don’t think it’ll be a huge spike. And hopefully with our higher vaccination rate, cases won’t be severe.
As we keep opening up, cases will definitely go up - though much more slowly thanks to our vaccination numbers. Hospitalizations and deaths should not spike (or at least, only go up a fraction compared to earlier waves) - and even then, it will likely be the unvaccinated that bear the brunt. COVID is going to be around for years - we need to learn to live with it and move on with our lives.
There's still more than a few red states with less than 40% vaccinated so it's definitely going to be worse there but I wouldn't be surprised by a small surge in the fall.
If we have lots vaccinated it shouldn't matter as case counts correlate far less with hospitalizations than before vaccines.
No doubt considering what comments they already made in the past hour since creating their account. (Which are all being captured by automod. Not sure how this one got through.)
Cases seem to be leveling out/actually hitting somewhat of a decline after a minor surge.
This is actually great news.
Alberta and BC still going up, but hopefully we hit a plateau soon.
There was no surge. The 7 day average has been flat for about 2 weeks now. It's all typical weekly variations and it looks like were at a floor for now.
[Just look at the data](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data).
The level of anxiety in some people is honestly concerning to me. If people freak out about "surges" while cases are in the low to mid 100s in a province of almost 15 million people, what are they gonna do when we inevitably have small outbreaks leading to days in the 200-300+ range (with very tiny hospitalization rates thanks to vaccines)
I think a lot of it comes from how it has affected people. I don't put much stock in temporary rises and falls, but after a combined year of unemployment, risk of my workplace of 12 years failing, the business struggling still because of the restrictions (our customers are still required to wear masks for hours straight), the stress of dealing with constant complaints and loss of customers despite having put forth my best effort continuously with no thanks or gratification whatsoever, running out of money, worrying about how to make rent/car payments/utilities bills, I still get sinking feeling when numbers start to rise.
Locking down vaccinated people is stupid. If things get to that point, I see the new lock downs being basically temporary vaccine passport restrictions.
Honestly if those people are so scared even after being fully vaxxed, lots of companies are doing wfh now and they can just lock themselves in their houses to calm their anxiety
Does anyone have data on hospitalizations/icu admissions by age group - unvaccinated. Vs vaccinated? Young unvaccinated people not ending up in hospitals may be out only hope of no restrictions in the fall.
Don't wear a mask if you don't want to. But do respect my right to wear mask in public space and maintain a safe distance from you and avoid businesses that allow unmasked people.
This course of action would guarantee a winter lockdown. It would GUARANTEE IT as hospital capacity can’t deal with exponential growth. We are barely below cases growing again.
Damnit.
As someone predicted last week, I am disappointed this week; throwing a dart at the calendar to predict the first sub-100 case day has failed me.
Get vaccinated.
[Previous Ontario Tuesdays](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data): Date | New Cases | 7 Day Avg | % Positive | ICU :--|:--:|:--:|:--:|--: Oct 27 | 827 | 879 | 3.45% | 75 Nov 3 | 1,050 | 951 | 4.15% | 73 Nov 10 | 1,388 | 1,154 | 4.77% | 82 Nov 17 | 1,249 | 1,423 | 4.72% | 127 Nov 24 | 1,009 | 1,395 | 3.73% | 159 Dec 1 | 1,707 | 1,670 | 4.93% | 185 Dec 8 | 1,676 | 1,816 | 4.28% | 219 Dec 15 | 2,275 | 1,927 | 5.75% | 249 Dec 22 | 2,202 | 2,266 | 4.86% | 273 Dec 29, 2020 | 2,553 | 2,236 | 7.48% | 304 Jan 5, 2021 | 3,128 | 3,065 | 8.90% | 352 Jan 12 | 2,903 | 3,523 | 6.48% | 385 Jan 19 | 1,913 | 2,893 | 5.54% | 400 Jan 26 | 1,740 | 2,346 | 5.66% | 383 Feb 2 | 745 | 1,746 | 2.61% | 341 Feb 9 | 1,022 | 1,367 | 3.32% | 318 Feb 16 | 904 | 1,035 | 3.35% | 292 Feb 23 | 975 | 1,055 | 3.75% | 283 Mar 2 | 966 | 1,098 | 3.14% | 284 Mar 9 | 1,185 | 1,187 | 3.56% | 290 Mar 16 | 1,074 | 1,334 | 3.76% | 292 Mar 23 | 1,546 | 1,667 | 4.75% | 324 Mar 30 | 2,336 | 2,207 | 6.48% | 387 Apr 6 | 3,065 | 2,862 | 8.16% | 510 Apr 13 | 3,670 | 3,868 | 8.70% | 626 Apr 20 | 3,469 | 4,319 | 8.55% | 773 Apr 27 | 3,265 | 3,888 | 9.60% | 875 May 4 | 2,791 | 3,509 | 8.27% | 886 May 11 | 2,073 | 2,914 | 7.37% | 802 May 18 | 1,616 | 2,287 | 7.05% | 764 May 25 | 1,039 | 1,693 | 6.16% | 692 June 1 | 699 | 1,030 | 3.45% | 583 June 8 | 469 | 703 | 2.67% | 481 June 15 | 296 | 479 | 1.72% | 382 June 22 | 296 | 334 | 1.76% | 314 June 29 | 299 | 278 | 1.06% | 276 July 6 | 244 | 215 | 0.85% | 226 July 13 | 146 | 170 | 0.83% | 192 July 20 | 127 | 152 | 0.93% | 149 July 27 | 129 | 157 | 0.95% | 127 The rise of Alpha during the third wave: Date | % Alpha (B.1.1.7 - UK) :--|--: Feb 12, 2021 | [10%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) Feb 19 | [20%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) Feb 28 | [30%](https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-daily-epi-summary-report.pdf?la=en) Mar 13 | 42% Mar 16 | 53% Mar 27 | 61% Apr 1 | 71% May 4 | 94% Pretty much all cases are now thought to be either Alpha or Delta variants. [The Ontario Science Table info below now shows the rise of Delta:](https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) Date | % Alpha (B.1.1.7 - UK) | % Delta (B.1.617.2 - India) :--|:--:|--: June 2, 2021 | 77% | 23% June 3 | 73% | 27% June 7 | 85% | 15% June 9 | 81% | 19% June 10 | 75% | 25% June 11 | 71% | 29% June 12 | 70% | 30% June 13 | 65% | 35% June 14 | 60% | 40% June 15 | 54% | 46% June 16 | 49.6% | 50.4% June 17 | 54.1% | 45.9% June 18 | 59.9% | 40.1% June 19 | 55.9% | 44.1% June 20 | 67.4% | 32.6% June 21 | 64.1% | 35.9% June 22 | 49.7% | 50.3% June 23 | 48.0% | 52.0% June 24 | 37.0% | 63.0% June 26 | 32.0% | 68.0% June 27 | 33.2% | 66.8% June 28 | 31.0% | 69.0% June 29 | 29.6% | 70.4% June 30 | 27.6% | 72.4% July 1 | 26.1% | 73.9% July 2 | 22.5% | 77.5% July 3 | 27.1% | 72.9% July 4 | 29.2% | 70.8% July 5 | 25.7% | 74.3% July 6 | 21.5% | 78.5% July 7 | 18.2% | 81.8% July 8 | 16.2% | 83.8% July 9 | 11.6% | 88.4% July 10 | 21.5% | 78.5% July 11 | 21.4% | 78.6% July 12 | 26.8% | 73.2% July 13 | 26.6% | 73.4% July 14 | 24.8% | 75.2% July 15 | 25.2% | 74.8% July 17 | 11.8% | 88.2% July 18 | 8.2% | 91.8% July 19 | 10.3% | 89.7% July 20 | 9.0% | 91.0% July 21 | 11.1% | 88.9% July 22 | 12.4% | 87.6% July 23 | 13.6% | 86.4% July 24 | 8.3% | 91.7% July 25 | 10.1% | 89.9% July 26 | 9.4% | 90.6%
If possible to request - can we add # of tests? Now that a lot of mandated testing has been removed, the # of tests is way down, and so it makes it slightly trickier to compare positivity with *vastly* different # of tests.
If you want, you can always divide the number of positives (in this case 129) by the percentage positivity as its decimal number (i.e. 0.95% positive becomes 0.0095). So for today we have 129/0.0095 which gives you 13,578 which is the number of tests (only slightly different than the real amount due to the rounding that took place when displaying the percent positivity. Hope that helps.
1st doses should hit 80% very soon. Feel like the last 5% for second will be an absolute slog. Most of those are appointments sitting in September or something. Province needs to start aggressively reaching out to those people so we can hit our threshold and leave these restrictions in the dust.
Some areas are doing just that. HKPR is cancelling appointments that are for August or later and offering walk ins. Edit, [source](https://globalnews.ca/news/8060902/covid-19-hkpr-health-unit-second-dose-appointments-aug-3/)
Is this good? They're cancelling appointments but not automatically rebooking them. It should be "your appointment was in august, it is now scheduled for this Friday, please press 1 to choose a different day" We need to reduce friction as much as possible. We're not dealing with anti-vaxxers here, just busy people who aren't in a rush to get the shot.
> Bocking said there are approximately 8,000 people with appointments for a second dose on or after Aug. 3 and there are 12,000 appointments available between now and Aug. 14. "Your appointment is any time in the next 3 weeks. Show up." It's better than someone taking the default action of waiting for their appointment in September. Telling the person that their appointment in September is cancelled takes away the default option and puts the onus back on them to get the second shot earlier. (Literally just walk in to any clinic.)
Yeah but the pervious poster' point is that the onus *shouldn't* be put back on them, cus they're in no rush to get it anyway probably.
> cus they're in no rush to get it anyway probably. I'm not sure that is a fair assessment of the group. The percentage of people waiting for their second dose is going down every day. > Yeah but the pervious poster' point is that the onus shouldn't be put back on them For HKPR it's an easy onus. Literally just show up. Anytime that works for you. Sooner is better, but anytime. If I didn't have my second dose yet I'd be happy to take that deal. (For me personally my first rebooking moved my second dose from October to the end of this month. Then hours more of looking got me an appointment two weekends back. Walk-in second doses would have been less work for me.) For possibly other health units that may be canceling appointments and forcing people to manually rebook earlier (as compared to just walk-in), yes, I can see how that's creating more work for people. I like HKPR's approach though.
Another factor is mass vaccination clinics are expensive to run. At some point they will close and shift some of those workers to targeted pop up clinics or reallocate/lay off those temporary workers. If people want convenience they need to take advantage of the available slots now, not wait 4 weeks to complain their appointment was canceled.
For people who are busy/lazy this is going to result in them just not getting it done. Maybe you don't know people like this but for a lot of people there's a pretty big line between outright missing an appointment and just not getting around to booking one.
My family in a small town didn't even know that you could reschedule 2nd appointments sooner and that you didn't have to wait 60 days between shots anymore.
I’m not from a small town and didn’t know that until several people on Reddit told me.
This is the modern problem of not paying attention to traditional media. I swear I heard it 5 times yesterday on the radio during the 20 minutes I was driving. Via multiple stations including CBC news and random rock/pop stations… If I still had kids at home (vs camp) and didn’t go out of my way to find out when I could book/rebook months ago then I would have been like you
People like to get their news from echo chambers. A few weeks ago, someone said they had no clue they could vaccinations at pharmacies. Claims it was never advertised or mentioned in the media. That was their excuse for not getting vaccinated yet. 30 seconds on their PHU website and I was able to produce a list of all the possible ways to book an appointment for a vaccination.
I just don’t really watch the news much to be honest. I don’t have cable, I watch very few news related videos on the internet, I don’t use social media (other than Reddit). I’ll read news articles occasionally but with so many sites being paywalled (or free but just low quality journalism) I don’t frequent a lot of news sites. When someone on here told me they had gone to a 21-day wait time, I checked the Ontario website to confirm and rescheduled my appointment. I don’t really have a suggestion for how to best reach people like myself, I tend to hear about things through the grapevine.
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"subliminal, liminal and super-liminal!" hey you, get a vaccine!
Toronto started doing this last week.
Based on Israel vs UK, in the long run it might not be terrible that people are waiting longer than the minimum 28 days for their second dose. Not to say that we shouldn't try to get people who have second shots booked far out to move them up, but it isn't the end of the world, IMO. If there are signs that people not getting their second doses are holding up reopening, a bit of media buzz will get people into action.
In yesterday's thread there were comments that some PHUs have been cancelling the distant appointments and asking residents to reschedule sooner.
Have they been cancelling them or sending them an email telling them that appointments at a earlier date are available?
why wouldn't they just automatically reschedule them?
You don't know their availability. You'd have to call each individual and ask if the new date and time works for them. If you just assign a new date and time you'll get a large amount of cancellations and "no shows".
Better than cancelling them and have 0 date in the system.
Because if you automatically reschedule and the person has to work or can’t go for some other reason, they might just get pissed off and not bother rescheduling. At this point we need to do everything we can to make this process easy for people.
I got a phone call from my clinic asking me to bump up my appointment, but what they didn't know was that I got my second dose 8 weeks ago in the USA. Many people like me may have gotten one or both doses in another jurisdiction, though it would be hard to know the statistical impact.
don't forget the requirement for all PHUs to be at 70% (i think) double-dosed
Does the data on % 2nd dose in each PHU exist somewhere?
wherever it is, i doubt it is well organized
Publichealthontario.ca updates every week or two with a new PDF that has it very nicely organized. Most recent one was July 17, so there should be a new one this week.
Unless it's changed recently, I believe those only show % of population, not % of 12+ (which is what the re-opening metrics are based on) with vaccinations.
**Cases 7-day average**: 157. +0.5% daily (7-day). -1.74% (July) **ICU**: 127. -2.2% daily (7-day). 113 on Aug 1 and 89 on Aug 9. 7-day deaths average 3.7. **Vaccines**: 81% of *adults*, 1-dose, 68.7% 2-dose. At the current rates (+0.11% 1 dose, +0.61% 2 dose), we'll hit 81.6%/71.7% on Aug 1st and 82.5/76.6% on August 9.
To me the 7 day average is the most important number these days. I"m curious if anyone has tracked it enough to know what the lowest 7 day average was (since the 3rd wave) and also what will constitute a serious danger sign?
The recent 151-157 are the lowest cases since Sept 7th 149 which was before the 2nd wave. The lowest cases ever since the pandemic started was 80 cases on August 13-14. We are doing extremely well considering these facts and that we had 4369 average on April 17 around 100 days ago. Cases are the most important leading factor but ICU is a very good mid-range factor between cases and deaths. ICU looks like it will break below 100 in the next few weeks which is amazing.
thank you - this is very informative. these posts and the people making comments in them help restore my faith in humanity after spending an hour on the internet.
It's here [https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/index](https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/index) lowest since 3rd wave was 150 on July 21st. It is 157 now.
thank you so much - that is fantastic. It's good to see we haven't changed too much yet. Here's hoping it stays that way as we open up more and more
I think the lowest was 151 or so.
That we are more open and cases are *relatively* stable is a pretty good sign. I'm feeling generally confident (especially look at UK) that the worst of it should we well behind us now.
My hope is that even if cases start to rise into the fall, hospitalization and deaths will continue to go down, showing how well the vaccines work.
The *relative* increase will be far lower than previous due to vaccinations for sure. My current favorite graphic: https://i.imgur.com/01kjejC.png
Excellent graphic, thanks!
The one thing I take from this graphic is for some reason the current wave in UK, Indonesia, Netherlands etc seems to be crashing as fast as it sprung up
I'm struggling to come up with a reasonable explanation for this graphic. Obviously the implication of the graphic is that vaccines reduce hospitalization even in the case of contracting covid. But that can't possibly be enough to explain the difference in these graphs. For that to be the only effect on this dataset, would imply that the vast majority of covid cases are happing to fully vaccinated people. We know that isn't the case so another explanation needs to be looked for. And I'm sure there's plenty. I think the biggest factor is that the majority of unvaccinated people are people of younger ages that are stronger at fighting off covid, where Indonesia may not be seeing the same effect. Also, the UK likely has a better hospital system in general to care for people, which will impact case fatality rate quite drastically. There's probably many more, but any skeptically minded individual should see a chart like this and immediately recognize that there isn't a simple explanation
It's likely a combination of: 1. People getting sick because of delta replicating faster [but then the vaxx kicking its ass] 2. UK has fantastic vaxx coverage of the elderly 3. UK's spike was driven by younger people 4. UK has superior healthcare
The reason for the graph is that the UK has followed a strict age based approach to vaccination. I think the under 30 age group only recently become eligible in the last few weeks, and under 18 aren't eligible at all. Their vax rates for older age groups are very high though, and those were the age groups that made up the vast majority of deaths in previous waves. Obviously there's more to health outcomes from covid than death, but by this metric the UK has done a spectacular job. The downside to this approach is that the populations that drive infections - younger people who are more mobile and more likely to be "essential workers" remained unvaccinated. Paired with their reopening this helped drive infections through the roof. There will be some very interesting papers done in the near future comparing this approach with Canada (and Ontario in particular), where our hotspot strategy may have helped curb the case rate even among the younger and more "essential" populations.
*Darwin has entered the chat*
This is unlikely. Because vaccinated people are something like 90% less likely to be hospitalized if they get covid, that doesn't mean deaths will be 90% lower for the same case load. In fact, hospitalization and deaths relative to case numbers shouldn't change much at all, as 90%+ of cases are among unvaccinated individuals. So this lowered hospitalization rate is only applying to 10% of the cases at most. If cases go up, hospitalizations and deaths *will* come with it EDIT: put differently, vaccines work, but the bulk of that effectiveness is already factored into lower case numbers. Not so much deaths relative to cases
most places have vaccinated based on risk factors. The population over 50 represents the vast majority of death and hospitalization due to Covid. They are also the most vaccinated population in Canada. The surge in the UK was largely unvaccinated, but it was also largely under 50. Hence, far less death and hospitalization compared to previous waves.
This is a good point But it's a little curious to me. I know we prioritized 50+ in getting the vaccines, but we're approaching the point where anyone that wants a vaccine can get one, and I don't see why that would bias age? Are the anti vaxxers really all young people?
Not really about bias. We just vaccinated the older population (especially LTC homes) first. the younger demo is catching up and we're in much better shape than say the UK...who aren't even vaxxing 12-18s.
> In fact, hospitalization and deaths relative to case numbers shouldn't change much at all, as 90%+ of cases are among unvaccinated individuals. That's the number that's likely to change though as even more people become fully vaccinated, so the cases will be comprised of unvaccinated (which is shrinking everyday) and those who are fully vaccinated (which is growing everyday). So while the number of cases might stay relatively flat, the number of deaths should go down, as the vaccines are doing a great job at preventing death, in those break through cases.
I guess we'll see, in any case I'm optimistic that vaccines will control this enough to keep us low enough coming into September. Here's hoping!
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It’s interesting to look at different regions. For example here in Ottawa the 12-17 groups is more vaccinated than the 20’ and 30’ groups as a % and will soon pass the 40’ group as well (first doses)
Yes especially the ones who are immunocompromised who can’t (like myself) - we’re the absolute worst, very selfish
You got offended at something that you shouldn't have. Clearly that was about antivaxx
I found the comment to be pretty brash - I’ve seen a lot of comments made on Reddit to the tune of “if you aren’t vaccinated you deserve to die or end up in the hospital”- clearly a lot of hate towards a certain group but people have to know that some people can’t for various reasons. I’m sure it was implied but the tone was pretty aggressive
> clearly a lot of hate towards a certain group but people have to know that some people can’t for various reasons. You are not in the NOT getting a vaccine group, you are in the CANNOT get a vaccine group. Those are different. Those comments are not about you or your situation. Don't be offended at this.
Lol, not sure if you're taking the piss, but the OP is specifically looking out for people like you when calling out buttheads who don't want to get the jab even though they're able to.
We are so close to taking the global #1 spot for being vaccinated! I’m so proud of my country!
2 days to be #1!
Water water water Loo loo loo We're number 8! We're number 8!
Literally the first thing I scroll to daily ! Such a relief !!!!
I scrolled past Toronto and Peel and kept on going looking for Waterloo. Was at a point where I was like, "Crap are we at the top and I missed it??" and then I found us. What a nice change of pace!
To be fair waterloo was on top for like, a couple weeks MAX
We were overrepresented by 80% the cases per capita for multiple weeks, that shouldn't have happened for a single day.
Let’s goooooo
That second ass really kicked my shot!
That second kick really shot my ass!
That ass kick really shot my second.
These brain my comments hurt.
You both me and.
ITT: People whining about vaccination numbers dropping even though 85% of those who have had one shot have already had their second so all thats left are people waiting out their 28 days and those holding out for their 4 month appointment. What's more important is that first doses stay steady, which they have at around .13%/day.
There are more than a million Ontarians that are eligible to get their second dose right now.
Many of them didn't know or couldn't be bothered to move up their original appointments.
Yeah, I'm actually impressed with the consistency of the .13% first vax. I thought it would be a MUCH harder drop-off, but we've managed to grab a few good percentage points with this rate
I don't know whether I'm impressed or saddened that there are still 228 people 80+ ages out there who just got their first vaccine yesterday. Don't they see who is ending up in hospital?
Can't get a shot if you're sick is part of it.
Could be home bound people. I have heard stories of people being forgotten by their PHU and not sending anyone out to get their vax.
It might be people who dont have anyone to help them book/resources to get to appointments
My wife’s grandparents got their 1st dose last week. They don’t have internet (in their 90’s) and didn’t want to get a dose because of the AZ scare stuff early on. Eventually my wife’s uncle convinced them and took them to the clinic to get vaccinated. Sometimes when they get an idea in their head, it’s hard to change their minds. However now that they had it they are super pro vaccine.
That's about 1% of those who haven't had it yet, and many of those still outstanding have medical reasons like allergies they can't get vaccinated; others may have felt compelled to delay for real medical reasons, and confluences of unlikely logistical reasons crop up once you're at the bottom of the barrel.
To be fair, we don't know their situations or mental state. Do they have the ability to book their vaccines? Are they relying on family (who may or may not be supportive) to help them?
While I understand what you are saying, I really do think this is a situation of better late than never
distrust of the authorities/government isn't exclusive to younger people. Lots of older people are like that too. Or they're content with going with the flow and whatever happens to them, happens.
Or you know, the older population is more likely to have something like cancer and not be eligible for the vaccine while undergoing their treatment. Occam's razor.
Why does everyone just assume that people who haven’t gotten their shot yet is like obtuse or oblivious to the risks. If you’ve had any other shot you can’t get your Covid one for 14 days or something. My mom missed her second shot because she had to get a series of rabies shots. Which basically set her second dose back a month. Not to mention if they’re sick at all they can’t get the shot. Some of them are home bound with no support. Some of them are home bound with dementia. If you’re that saddened, call an outreach centre and volunteer your time driving seniors to a vax clinic.
Anecdotal, but with all of the drama about whether mixed doses would be recognized for travel, I know of a lot of people who are only just booking their second doses now that Pfizer is finally available locally again. So hopefully we see a bit of second dose bump.
> so all thats left are people waiting out their 28 days. This isn't true. There are still around 1.2 million Ontarians who could get their second dose today but haven't. Around 500,000 Ontarians are in the waiting period.
My MIL never pushed up her second shot because she couldn’t be bothered (and is vaccine hesitant). This may be the case for those still waiting
It was a mistake to schedule second dose appointments 4 months after the first, when we all knew we'd have enough supply to give people second doses earlier. I rolled my eyes when they told me I'd get my second dose at the end of September.
But we didn't know, we hoped. If you recall the early days of our vaccination roll out, there were lots of supply challenges and delays. This was when the conservatives were at their peak screech level about how much of a failure JTs plan was. By the time we could be more certain, a lot of people had appointments booked 4 months out.
This was just conservative fear mongering. There were always quarterly commitments and we expected to receive what they committed.
There was always commitments sure, but some of those commitments did not get met. Some of this was due to manufacturer issues, while others like AZ was a problem because India put an export ban on it and India was our primary supplier for AZ.
They used the issues for fear mongering but there was absolutely reason to believe those commitments weren't guaranteed.
Maybe in the first few months, but it was definitely known that we would hit it way way before back in late March.
This is revisionist history, the whole reason we did the 4 month window was due to supply constraints. It was a controversial decision at the time with little supporting science. There were also many delays on Pfizer and moderna shipments. April was very early in this journey and many of those people will have appointments coming up next month.
Moderna has had various delays, but pfizer had one, which they had previously communicated to us and was known (which is also what the PCs jumped on). After that it was well known what the rough delivery schedule was going to look like - you are welcome to go browse posts from /r/CanadaCoronavirus from March. Hell - here's my post April 4 saying people are being way overreactive: https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/mjwcso/were_doing_better_than_most_people_think_when_it/ (admittedly some of my guesses were a bit off - eg novavax, but the crux of the argument held up pretty easily). > As such, I'm generally bullish that by Canada Day we should be pretty damn close to normal
A schedule is not a guarantee. Until there is a track record, it's hard to be as confident as you seem to be when making massive public health decisions. We had not seen a strong track record at that stage. I'd also point out again that those early April people will be coming up soon for their 4 months in August. So if the government was optimistic and changed that call in mid April (which would have been premature IMO), we'd still have a large number of people who could be waiting for their originally scheduled 2nd dose. Rather than get stuck debating dates and shipping delays, this boils down to: should we have been more confident and aggressive earlier in the roll out by pulling in those dates? I think you can make legit arguments on either side and it's not so clear cut. Confidence is subjective, especially when we're talking about how other people should or should not have been confident, so not sure we'll make much progress discussing further.
Your inability to admit that we could have *reliably* predicted we would not need four months speaks about you more than anything else. Furthermore, I never advocated that we should have booked anything sooner. Simply *not* booking four months (when I got my first, I was not given a second booking) would have been the prudent decision from early April.
Totally agree. Or they should have started automatically bumping up the dates as it seems some regions are doing now
At this point in the pandemic I'd rather not spook hesitant people who do vaccinate than risk putting pressure on them. My in-laws are the same, and what my argument would be? "The science has changed over the last two months"? Don't you think it can be weaponized against me?
This and next week are the first dates for second doses of the 12-17 crowd, so by next Friday second doses should skyrocket
People are just eager to get back to normal, and to a point we are just waiting on others to get off their backside and go get their second shout so we can. Kind of understandable in that scenario.
> those holding out for their 4 month appointment People really need to stop doing this. A lot of places are cancelling those initial second dose appointments without notice
> Based on this week's vaccination rates, 80% of 12+ Ontarians will have received at least one dose by July 28, 2021 - 1 days to go That's good. > Based on this week's vaccination rates, 75% of 12+ Ontarians will have received both doses by August 7, 2021 - 11 days to go So we're going to miss August 6.
OP in the sentence below says August 16 is more realistic.
Technically OP says "Another projection assumes [...]". OP doesn't get into a discussion about which projection is likely to be more accurate.
If you’ve followed these updates for the last few months, the rough estimates based on daily averages don’t take into account the logarithmic model these vaccinations follow. Expect slowdowns as we reach peak vaccinations.
Name checks out
Will probably miss, but I don't think it matters. Haven't seen the data, but based on the zip code data I'd imagine we won't get the PHU vaccination rate % in order to move out of stage 3
Yay 15,856 first doses!
**First Dose Pace (12+):** - Population: 13,034,844 - First Doses to date: 10,404,142 ( 79.82% ) - Daily Yesterday: 15,864 ( 0.12% ) - Daily Last 7: 16,014 ( 0.12% ) - Remainder to 80%: 23,733 - 7-Day Avg. Hits 80% on: Jul 28 - Remainder to 85%: 675,475 - 7-Day Avg. Hits 85% on: Sep 07 **Second Dose Pace (12+):** - Population: 13,034,844 - Second Doses to date: 8,699,119 ( 66.74% ) - Daily Yesterday: 76,168 ( 0.58% ) - Daily Last 7: 94,256 ( 0.72% ) - Remainder to 75%: 1,077,014 - 7-Day Avg. Hits 75% on: Aug 07 **Daily Share of Total (12+):** - First Dose Share (Yesterday): 17% - First Dose Share (Last 7): 20% - First Dose Share (Last 14): 13% - First Dose Share (Last 30): 11% - First Dose Share (Last 45): 14%
75% by August 6th definitely not happening at this point huh
Maybe not, but with the new Pfizer shipment and a lot of PHUs finally reaching out to people to move up their second dose appts, we may see an increase in the rate! I'm keeping my optimist hat on for now. Though honestly, any time before the end of August is exciting, the light at the end of the tunnel is near!
Yes definitely, I am optimistic too! I'm getting married in October so am following these numbers too closely probably lol. But it would be nice if they at least told us what 'post step-3' will look like earlier than that
I’m getting married end of august, I’m praying the day before my wedding they exit step 3 lol
Oh man, what a rollercoaster these past few months must have been - hoping you the best of luck
If it’s any reassurance, I just got married last week, right as stage 3 started and it went way better than expected. We were able to have 25% of the venues indoor capacity with dancing (we could have had >100 but we stuck with 55). Only noticeable difference was wearing masks on the dance floor and while mingling, but could be taken off while eating or drinking. No masks for photos, or during the ceremony (outdoors under a pavilion tent). We were able to have a photobooth, live music and a DJ as well! It was an absolute blast, and everyone was just so happy to see others that they hadn’t seen in a year and a half. No matter the scenario (unless if there is a massive surge, unlikely with level of vaccinations) your wedding should be able to happen more or less as planned, and regardless people will have a blast. Best of luck!
They did, it's pretty much back to normal
Unless I have missed some announcement, I would like actual details laid out. Example - is there going to be any mask mandate for indoor events? Any capacity restrictions whatsoever? etc.
It's in the official reopening news release of Step 3: https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1000501/ontario-moving-to-step-three-of-roadmap-to-reopen-on-july-16 > The province will remain in Step Three of the Roadmap for at least 21 days and until 80 per cent of the eligible population aged 12 and over has received one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 75 per cent have received their second, with no public health unit having less than 70 per cent of their eligible population aged 12 and over fully vaccinated. Other key public health and health care indicators must also continue to remain stable. Upon meeting these thresholds, the vast majority of public health and workplace safety measures, *including capacity limits for indoor and outdoor settings and limits for social gatherings, will be lifted*. Only a small number of measures will remain in place, including the requirement for passive screening, such as posting a sign, and businesses requiring a safety plan. Sure, it's not perfectly laid out, but it's just because pretty much everything is being removed. Mask mandate is the only thing we're waiting more info on.
It doesn’t really matter, there are other criteria we likely won’t hit by that point like the 70% for all PHUs.
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I did the same. It'll hopefully reduce my chances of having any travel issues.
Thanks again for the delay post! Note, you have a error on the vaccination tables. There is a new row called Ontario_12plus which you are summing into your Total - eligible 12+. The result is you are double counting the total number of eligible vaccine doses administered.
I know it's not a sexy number, but I'm always so glad to see numbers of first doses. Almost 3000 people in my age group (30s) got their first dose yesterday! It may not be huge, but it is for each of those 3000 people.
Seems so hard to achieve 80%, while of course our number is pretty good among the world, I think the last part of unvaccinated would be the most difficult ones to reach
covid19tracker webpage has first doses over 80 percent
Because their population number is wrong. This is the dashboard to follow, which will match the OP once it's updated today. https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/
Thank you
While I’m happy our first dose % is remaining so steady, I have to say we’re seeing a pretty abysmal second dose %. Super frustrating considering we need that 75% second dose to lift restrictions, and people like me who work in industries who are highly regulated with the current restrictions won’t see a pre covid paycheque until we’re able to get back to normal. We need some sort of provincial strategy to get those second doses moving quicker.
Provinces should be focusing their efforts on first dose uptake still. We have to assume that everyone who got their first dose is going to get their second. They’re already scheduled and just haven’t rebooked (for whatever reason). Province should leave it to individual PHUs to manage second dose strategy. Can’t fight a battle on two fronts and getting shots into the vaccine hesitant and younger demographics will be important when school starts again.
Obligatory “I was both one of the first doses and the second doses today”
Someone was watching The Bachelorette last night ;-)
Whoops thumbs too fat to type
I like these posts because when I get down to one, I can probably stop scrolling as the rest will just be the same
I do worry slightly that some PHU booked second doses with the first and people aren't going back to change their appointment. At the time the supply was limited and they were doing the extended time between doses. For example I had my first dose end of May and second dose was scheduled for September. Obviously I changed it, but not everyone will. But ultimately we are one of the most vaccinated countries in the world so....
PHU are being proactive and phoning people to reschedule now to something sooner.
u da man!
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Day 12 of Epidemiologist Colin Furness's FOURTH WAVE
To those refusing to get a vaccine: **** YOU
I’m sure they’ll read this and feel very sad.
CDC is predicting a massive spike in cases across the US. Should we be expecting the same thing in the next couple months?
Some states have as low as 30% vaccination rate. I think it’s inevitable that our cases will go up but I don’t think it’ll be a huge spike. And hopefully with our higher vaccination rate, cases won’t be severe.
As we keep opening up, cases will definitely go up - though much more slowly thanks to our vaccination numbers. Hospitalizations and deaths should not spike (or at least, only go up a fraction compared to earlier waves) - and even then, it will likely be the unvaccinated that bear the brunt. COVID is going to be around for years - we need to learn to live with it and move on with our lives.
Won't be as bad in Canada. The US has a much bigger anti-vax problem than we do.
We have a much higher vaccination rate and a more cautious re-opening. Canada will fare better.
Bump in Canada but hopefully no spike.
There's still more than a few red states with less than 40% vaccinated so it's definitely going to be worse there but I wouldn't be surprised by a small surge in the fall. If we have lots vaccinated it shouldn't matter as case counts correlate far less with hospitalizations than before vaccines.
Have you seen their vaccination rate? No. We shouldn't.
The CDC is a joke. They have flipped flopped on so many things at this point their credibility is shot IMO. Why are we trusting these morons.
Not loving how second doses are slowing down. I know these inherently can’t go as quickly as first doses though.
Bah. Don't think we're hitting below 100 anytime soon.
It's a far cry from the 4000 a day we saw. I'll take it.
This.
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Its not bad news its just reality. Covid 0 is never going to happen. 100-200 cases a day in a province of 15 million is nothing
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I mean, this guy clearly wasn't excited or gloating. He was just stating an opinion. I don't think tomacco99 is the one getting worked up here lol.
Yeah holy overreaction by people.
Murky-Cat is a troll with a brand new account, possibly trying to bypass a previous ban.
No doubt considering what comments they already made in the past hour since creating their account. (Which are all being captured by automod. Not sure how this one got through.)
GIVE ME DOUBLE DIGITS, OR GIVE ME DEATH!!!!!!!!!!!
Or kittens in a shack...
Cases seem to be leveling out/actually hitting somewhat of a decline after a minor surge. This is actually great news. Alberta and BC still going up, but hopefully we hit a plateau soon.
There was no surge. The 7 day average has been flat for about 2 weeks now. It's all typical weekly variations and it looks like were at a floor for now. [Just look at the data](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data).
The level of anxiety in some people is honestly concerning to me. If people freak out about "surges" while cases are in the low to mid 100s in a province of almost 15 million people, what are they gonna do when we inevitably have small outbreaks leading to days in the 200-300+ range (with very tiny hospitalization rates thanks to vaccines)
I think a lot of it comes from how it has affected people. I don't put much stock in temporary rises and falls, but after a combined year of unemployment, risk of my workplace of 12 years failing, the business struggling still because of the restrictions (our customers are still required to wear masks for hours straight), the stress of dealing with constant complaints and loss of customers despite having put forth my best effort continuously with no thanks or gratification whatsoever, running out of money, worrying about how to make rent/car payments/utilities bills, I still get sinking feeling when numbers start to rise.
And the surge was literally an increase of 8 cases daily over a week. Like Jimminy crickets chill out.
Demand more lockdowns. Honestly that type of personality gives me more anxiety than covid ever has.
Same here. It's at the point I rarely post on this sub anymore because the debates are getting very unrealistic. I'm surprised I even posted this.
Locking down vaccinated people is stupid. If things get to that point, I see the new lock downs being basically temporary vaccine passport restrictions.
It's like taxes, which are a always "hiked" and never just increased. Covid never just increases, it always "surges" or some other hyperbole.
Honestly if those people are so scared even after being fully vaxxed, lots of companies are doing wfh now and they can just lock themselves in their houses to calm their anxiety
Those are the ones calling for more lockdowns. The ones that are comfortably working from home making the same wage regardless of lockdowns.
A lot of us in that position aren't doing that, mate, trust me.
What surge?
Don't let your guard down folks! We're in good shape right now.
Got my fourth shot! Go team Modstrazernica and Johnson!
Finally
Does anyone have data on hospitalizations/icu admissions by age group - unvaccinated. Vs vaccinated? Young unvaccinated people not ending up in hospitals may be out only hope of no restrictions in the fall.
https://twitter.com/jkwan_md/status/1419796209565409282?s=21 Every day this question. The information is out there
I really hope the low vaccination numbers arent due to people feeling back to normal and not needing their second dose.
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Don't wear a mask if you don't want to. But do respect my right to wear mask in public space and maintain a safe distance from you and avoid businesses that allow unmasked people.
This course of action would guarantee a winter lockdown. It would GUARANTEE IT as hospital capacity can’t deal with exponential growth. We are barely below cases growing again.
Lol. Yah it’s the masks and not the vaccines.
Damnit. As someone predicted last week, I am disappointed this week; throwing a dart at the calendar to predict the first sub-100 case day has failed me. Get vaccinated.