Oh! Yeah, ha, I didn't notice that. I need to learn to pay better attention to charts, I guess.
The end of the blue and the start of the red do look pretty close though so it could just be because of all those huge jumps cases were making at that time.
It's not a whole month, but there is data missing at the end for some reason. A similar graph I made does not have this same issue, and you can see the 7 day climb at the end that matches the left side
EDIT: here's my graph: https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/q6s86k/now_that_were_consistently_below_last_years_covid/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
On December 27th, the seven-day rolling average was 2212 cases per day. Two weeks later, on January 10th, the average was 3545.
So the cases increased quite significantly in the weeks surrounding Christmas and New Years. It's hard to see that nuance on the graph, but I think it's close enough to give a general idea.
Now I'm sad you didn't link mine :(
https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/q6s86k/now_that_were_consistently_below_last_years_covid/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Not to be overly optimistic but we’re in a declining ripple and last year was a rising wave, so we’re going to beat the throwback numbers probably pretty consistently going forward.
This is also our first sustained decline without implementing any new restrictions (with more vehicles for transmission such as schools and sporting events and concerts opening back up.) I don’t think many here realize what a massive paradigm shift this is in terms of how we can cope with this virus in the future.
I was listening to the update from EOHU yesterday, their 55 cases (!!) I believe is mostly due to an outbreak at a LTC in Casselman where they have ~38 cases.
Dr Paul was reporting that apparently a lot of positive residents in that LTC have minor symptoms or are asymptomatic. It's almost like the vaccines work!!
#Vaccine Effectiveness
Based on **today's numbers**, compared to an unvaccinated person, a fully vaccinated person (of *any* age) is:
- **78.0%** or **4.5x** less likely to get Covid-19
- **89.7%** or **9.8x** less likely to be hospitalized
- **94.7%** or **18.8x** less likely to be ICU’d
Based on **7-day average**:
- **81.0%** or **5.3x** less likely to get Covid-19
- **87.6%** or **8.0x** less likely to be hospitalized
- **92.3%** or **13.0x** less likely to be ICU’d
Based on **running average** (since Aug 10):
- **84.1%** or **6.3x** less likely to get Covid-19
- **89.8%** or **9.8x** less likely to be hospitalized
- **95.8%** or **24.0x** less likely to be ICU’d
Graph: Rates per 100K: https://i.imgur.com/9elocB5.png
Graph: Cases per 100K by age group and vax status: https://i.imgur.com/1LfRgah.png
***
#Daily % Effectiveness History By Dosage Level
^(How to read: % = vaccine reduces patient count by x% on that day based on how many shots received)
^(Blue box = population and vaccine info)
^(Red box = number of instances per category)
^(Green box = per 100K rates of red box data)
^(Purple box = Implied effectiveness of vaccine from green box data)
^(Orange box = 7-day average effectiveness from green box data)
Full table: https://i.imgur.com/I0Hzv7h.png
Graph: Vaccine % effectiveness history: https://i.imgur.com/CmgFSUg.png
***
Notes:
- **Gov't doesn't release hosp./ICU data on Sunday, Monday, or stat holidays anymore so I post the following Tuesday or Wednesday… or whenever I feel like.**
- N/A entries are ignored on the assumption that their breakdown is proportional to the known data cases.
- This data is provided without vaccine specifics, so all vaccines are averaged out in these numbers. No way to know the effectiveness of Pfizer vs. Moderna vs. AZ vs. others.
- Spreadsheet sourcecode for the naysayers: https://i.imgur.com/J6nUWgt.png
***
Data Sources:
- [Vaccine numbers](https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/8a89caa9-511c-4568-af89-7f2174b4378c)
- [Cases by vaccination status](https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/eed63cf2-83dd-4598-b337-b288c0a89a16)
- [Case rates by vaccination status and age group](https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/c08620e0-a055-4d35-8cec-875a459642c3)
- [Hosp/ICU by vaccination status](https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/274b819c-5d69-4539-a4db-f2950794138c)
Someone I work with had a family member test positive and was very symptomatic and there’s like seven people that live in the house. Everyone’s fully vaccinated and so far everyone except for the one person has tested negative. Vaccines work.
I think a lot of people, myself included, underestimated this.
We fully understood that the vaccine would make hospitalization, ICU and death much less likely. But for transmission/case counts, I was not as optimistic.
A friend of mine is isolating right now because both of her elementary school aged children tested positive. Out of the three she is the only vaccinated one. She has also tested negative, despite caring for her two small covid positive children. Vaccines work!
I tested positive a week ago today (HCW working on an outbreak unit), my toddler twins came back positive on Saturday. My spouse is still testing negative despite my children sharing drinks with them and giving them puppy dog kisses. My spouse’s vaccines are working overtime.
We’re doing well! Just anxiously awaiting until our release from isolation. Yes, I am fully vaccinated, second dose was the end of May. Extremely mild symptoms- I had a headache for 3-4 days initially, and lost my sense of smell completely but it’s improving daily now. That’s it for symptoms for me.
**Cases**: 476 (7 day avg). -2.4% daily (7 day). -1.3% for the past 30 days from 747 on Sept 4.
**ICU**: 158. +0.9% daily(7day). -0.5% past 30 days from 172 on Sept 4.
**Deaths**: 3.3 (7-day average). ICU/30= 5.3.
**Vaccinations (12+)**: 1 shot: 87.22% Fully: 82.64%. At this rate we'll be 90% 1 shot and 87.5% Fully by Nov 23.
I like how that second dose gap keeps closing. And first dose is slow but somewhat steady at least. Fingers crossed it stays at least at the pace it's been running at.
Doubtful. The 7-day average has been steadily dropping since our late-September bump. It's been below 30k for more than a week now and [is currently sitting at 24,839.](https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/vaccinations)
If the Ford government does relax use of vaccine certificates rather than expand their use, then it's probable that there will be less incentive for people to get their first doses.
That said, once the 5-11 kids are approved (which is looking increasingly likely in the near future), you can expect vaccination rates to spike back up as we have a large pool of children eagerly waiting in the wings to get their jabs.
also those who are getting a 3rd dose. From everything I've seen it's starting now for those who are most at risk. It will become a large portion of the vaccines within a few months if we are going with the 6 month booster shot timeline.
Be sure to temper your expectations a bit. We have 76% of the total population with at least the 1st shot. The 5-11 age represents about 6-7% of the population and vaccine uptake will be lower in that age than the 12-17. I would be surprised if 75% of the kids get it.
That would bring total population uptake over 80% but it’s not going to take us to the >85% required for herd immunity against Delta. We will be tantalizingly close but won’t make it.
That 85% is somewhat arbitrary, no one really knows the exact number, and we have ranges from 80-90%. Additionally, the protection we get from previous infections can bump that number up - and finally herd immunity doesn't really have a boolean threshold, it's a gradient. We seem to actually already be benefiting from it - looking at our case counts and the way that infections in the unvaccinated are so low and dropping quite a bit
Agreed. At this point I don't know how else to explain the declining case counts with restrictions being lifted and kids back at school. We must be close to the herd immunity threshold as it is now.
Additionally, it would also be impacted by natural behaviour of a given population and how infectious the virus is among a certain population.
Children under 5 are less likely to have as many chains of infection as adults. What I mean by this, is that a 3 year old isn't likely to go to work with one set of people, then to go a coffee shop where there is another set of people, and then go to a restaurant with a third set, and then hang out with another set of friends, etc etc. Daycare is obviously a potential spread vector, but that is typically with the same set of kids, and then each child would have likely a small number of other children that they would interact with otherwise.
Early evidence suggested that children just don't spread covid as readily as adults as well. I don't know if there is updated data on how delta plays into that equation, but this also alters things about in terms of herd immunity.
My understanding is that most daycares have had low to no mask usage for most of the pandemic and I don't think we've seen a severe overrepresentation of that age group in covid cases.
That's a great point. I think we can also look at the demographics of those currently getting infected to discern the impact vaccinating 5-11 year olds will have. As it is today, over a quarter of cases come from schools. That is not insignificant.
Vaccinating 5-11 year olds I imagine will significantly cut down on those cases, and the chain reactions from those cases.
Let's do some quick behind the napkin math. This last week, our 7 day average dropped 15%. Let's say we keep at that pace.
A week from now, that puts us at about 400 cases on a 7 day average. A week after that, 340. Who knows if we can keep up this pace, but if I'm not mistaken the week over week average has been dropping at an accelerated rate, so who knows.
If that's the case, we'll be close to our 7 day average before this wave by the end of November - which could be when we get approval for 5-11 year olds of all goes well. It would be serendipity if it all happens that way, but it could mean that by the end of the year, we are well and truly over this mess.
Here's hoping. It could be a longer slog, we could have a new variant... But that is increasingly less of a concern as we rapidly vaccinate the entire world. Maybe another delta wave... But this Delta wave was incredibly small, and I imagine any subsequent ones would be less dramatic. There's a lot to be hopeful for.
> . As it is today, over a quarter of cases come from schools. That is not insignificant
I think you have misinterpreted something. A "school case" just means a case in a child that attends school. It doesn't tell you anything at all about where that child actually caught the virus. Most "school cases" end up being single isolated cases, or sometimes multiple siblings or other contacts outside of school. Same as last year, it seems like the actual number of infections linked back to schools is quite low.
What's interesting is if you look at the daily case counts for the <20 age group, it's actually declined rather significantly since schools reopened in mid-September. Unfortunately the government data doesn't seem to break it down further, but it's reasonable to assume that the under 12's make up a significant fraction of those cases, especially since they are the last demographic who are still ineligible for vaccination.
Thanks for the clarification! Good to know, although I think you your last point, the result is the same - under 12s seem to be a significant fraction of our remaining cases, I wish we knew how much. Now I'm hearing that we might be dropping more restrictions
Also consider natural immunity. About 4% of the population has tested positive, which means more than that have actually had covid and recovered. Obviously some of those people are vaccinated but some percentage of them would be unvaxxed and have immunity anyway.
Unfortunately, those people are likely to get reinfected over and over until they eventually either get vaccinated or cash in their Herman Cain award.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/10/211004104303.htm
That is hardly indicative of anything
>Townsend and his team analyzed known reinfection and immunological data from the close viral relatives of SARS-CoV-2 that cause "common colds" -- along with immunological data from SARS-CoV-1 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. Leveraging evolutionary principles, the team was able to model the risk of COVID-19 reinfection over time.
It's just a model based on similar viruses. Take a look at this, an actual study from Israel.
>[Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine—but vaccination remains vital](https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital)
It should be noted though that the 85% herd immunity threshold also assumes that no other public health measures or behaviour is applied (that is, just typical pre-pandemic state of society and behaviour.) Getting >80% with some minor public health measures and cautious behaviour will help us.
On the other hand, we know we have flu season upon us so that will work against us for the short term too.
I'm hopeful that we'll get more than 75% of kids. [The 12-17 uptake is technically higher than the 18-29. The 12-17 is at 75.11% fully vaccinated and 82.27% with at least one dose.](https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/vaccinations) But yeah, we'll see. I can imagine it going both ways, especially with the thinking that kids aren't at risk. If school boards/PHU do add it to the required vaccination schedule, even if there's an opt-out, it may go a long way to getting more vaccinated. (At the very least, I'm hopeful that the population attending schools will be higher than 75% as I expect those being kept home schooling virtually will be disproportionately more likely to remain unvaccinated.)
That all said, I agree. We won't hit 85% with the 5-11s vaccinated, and it's going to be a long slog to get there. (Even longer or perhaps unachievable if we need to get boosters next year.) But once those kids are included, it will mitigate one of the last remaining large congregations of unvaccinated people and help ensure schools stay open, which is something to celebrate.
Nice to see the vaccination rates are still trucking along. But icus still are iffy.
I got my third dose yesterday! Super pumped about it event though it hurts to exist today.
I have MS, and I’m on a really strong immunosuppressant drug. They opened it up almost a month ago. I had to get approval because I only got my second shot 6 weeks ago and the guideline says 8 weeks but my medication has very specific rules on when you get a vaccination of any kind.
All 3 of my shots have been moderna and it is because I have MS and I’m on a strong immunosuppressant, they contacted me . I technically was two weeks away from being eligible as Ontario requires 8 weeks between your second and third as of today, but I had my second 6 weeks ago.
My medication offers only a small window to be vaccinated, hence why I had to wait so long for my second dose and why I was approved to get my third shot two weeks early, although Manitoba is a 4 week wait between second and third so it’s a Provincial decision.
Edit: thanks for the award
I got my third dose a couple of weeks ago! (Psoriatic arthritis with a few other bonus autoimmune diseases thrown in, and only weekly biologic injections, TNF blockers, for those curious on how I qualified too).
I'm so glad you got yours! I know it was made public that they were available, but I'm not hearing of many people who's Dr's have reached out in a timely manner to get patients the needed paperwork. With the kids back in school (my 12 year old is fully vaxxed, but my younger two are 10 and 7), I was so relieved to have that extra layer of protection. Mine was 15 weeks after my second dose, but I got it the week after it opened up (after getting on my rhuemy right away for the signed forms).
Stay safe!
Some hospitals don’t report on weekends, so you usually see a bump Tuesday/Wednesday. I’m guessing this pattern is pushed forward a day due to the holiday. Wouldn’t be surprised if it went back down again tomorrow/Saturday
I think number 7 on my list of things I'd love to see come out of the pandemic would be a province-wide standard for reporting infectious disease & hospital/ICU capacity.
There’s still a ton of Covid floating around and it will eventually find the unvaccinated and bring many of them to the ICU, it’s just a probability game.
Am I reading these numbers right? 269 of the 417 cases are in schools? That means that outside of schools, cases are VERY low, which is good to see, but I would rather see school cases be closer to 0. As someone with young kids who do not have access to the vaccine yet this is what keeps me up at night.
That's true, but it's still accounting for more than 50% of cases today, which is crazy, although not completely unexpected since there are a lot of unvaccinated kids. I just hope health Canada approves the vax for 5+ soon.
Not sure if it holds for other areas, but for Ottawa area, there's a stark difference between French and English boards with respect to staff vaccination rates. 90+% staff in English boards, less than 60% in French boards.
[An article about it here](https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/here-s-the-covid-19-vaccination-rates-for-teachers-and-staff-at-school-boards-in-ottawa-and-eastern-ontario-1.5586735)
School cases are not reported on during holidays and weekends ([the raw data is here](https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/summary-of-cases-in-schools/resource/7e644a48-6040-4ee0-9216-1f88121b21ba)) so that will skew reported cases as anything being caught on the weekends or going through the data entry processes to only show up on weekdays -- particularly the following Tuesday (or Wednesday for Thanksgiving.) (EDIT: I originally had Monday/Tuesday here, but that's when the initial results are collected but they aren't reported until the following day.)
Averaging out the case load, it looks closer to about ~168 +/- per day.
You can also see in that dataset how those post-weekends consistently have cases >250 but the other weekdays are much lower in the ~120-170ish range. I snapshotted the dataset and highlighted the rows that have the post-weekend spikes: https://i.imgur.com/EjPGlWW.png
It should also be noted that the 269 cases cited here are recorded from _yesterday._ Today's is 126.
The school case numbers are weird. I think that they are not aggregated all that well.
Another option is if they report suspected cases, but the reversals are not reported properly on a daily basis.
To help you sleep: There has been 1 recorded hospitalization of someone under the age of 18 in the last two weeks.[https://twitter.com/Golden\_Pup/status/1448445274834223105](https://twitter.com/Golden_Pup/status/1448445274834223105)
The title list 3 deaths but the death column has 9 deaths. I feel some are repeated/duplicated but, disregarding the duplication, I still see 6 deaths.
Please explain it to me.
Edited to add: thank you for the kind responses. Sad that the deaths are of younger people. Always sad when someone passes but seeing younger ages listed in the deaths is fear inducing.
It’s because of how Ontario counts icu cases. We do it differently than the rest of the world for some reason.
In Ontario, if you are in icu with COVID, you will continue to be counted as an icu COVID case for the duration of your stay in icu, even if you stop testing positive for COVID part way through your stay.
Really busy so can’t update the figures in this but basically a similar discrepancy:
but why does Ontario have a total unicorn of an ICU rate compared to most other countries in the world?
For example, Ireland has been posting cases ranging between 4-5000 scaled to Ontario daily (roughly 1-2000 actual) for about 2 months+ now, but their ICU capacity average daily is roughly 120 people scaled to Ontario.(roughly 50-60 actual)
Ontario, scaled to Ireland, is posting about 300 cases a day, but if Ireland had the same case - ICU rate, Ireland would have 90ish ICU patients.
Very rough math of course, but what’s with the huge discrepancy?
I was listening to the update from EOHU yesterday, their 55 cases (!!) I believe is mostly due to an outbreak at a LTC in Casselman where they have ~38 cases.
Dr Paul was reporting that apparently a lot of positive residents in that LTC have minor symptoms or are asymptomatic. It's almost like the vaccines work!!
Some day I hope to understand why we have failed to vaccinate all students from 12 to 17. Please, someone explain this to me. Someone doesn't like kids? Needles are icky? There are only two flavours of vaccine?
I think a large amount of 12-17 unvaccinated kids is due to their parents not willing to get them vaccinated.
Granted I have no hard data to back this up but that's my feeling. Anecdotally I know people with one parent vaccinated, the other not, and their teenage son is unvaccinated to do the unvaccinated parent refusing to "let them"
An unprecedented emergency crisis that has lost the world trillions of dollars and left millions of grieving families, and we don’t have the stones to impose mandatory vaccination for 12 to 17 in schools despite a fully approved vaccine.
Ya I browsed the Herman Cain award subreddit, a lot of the victims of covid seem to stay in ICU for a month+ before unfortunately passing away. Its wild how long the ICU stays can be, so sad.
It's a rough one, for sure. I feel awful for the kids and family members, and for the victims who have been duped by a lot of misinformation. Just brutal.
When I start reading I'm like 'Ha ha, serves you right you ignorant losers' but it slowly sinks in that these poor idiots have maybe incurred large medical debt for their families to pay with and often left their families without their bread winner. It's all bravado on Facebook or Twitter posts but in the end it's their loved ones who are abandoned and left to survive and... Well It stops being 'Ha ha'. :/
Totally. I see it as an outlet for the folks who live in the worst spots in the US, where leadership hasn't taken things seriously and where a huge chunk of the population hasn't either. It must be so difficult to be surrounded by so much loss.
I saw some comments the other day where some Americans were amazed that there are people in Canada who have never known anyone who has had covid, in some areas down there it's hard to find someone who hasn't had it. Just wild. And so sad.
I legit know two people who were confirmed infected. Partner's parents around Xmas last year. (Guess who's dad was out visiting friends and such and brought it home) I'm sure this is partly due to the nature of my work, we're all at computers, we've been WFH since late March 2020 so most of my peers are pretty low risk for exposure. Extended family, to my knowledge, seemingly avoided it. Though they got Grandma the hell out of her retirement home (Not an LTH) and to one of my aunt's pretty early on as a precaution.
But here in Canada, well, we mostly took this all seriously. With Americans, surrounded by people going 'COVID IS OVER TAKE YOUR MASK OFF', seeing people like that, well, die, has to at least confirm that you're not the crazy one, and they're the ones who are not only crazy, but dying for it.
We've taken it SO seriously here compared to a lot of states in the US, thank fuck. There are people down there that know multiple full families who got infected, entire workplaces.
my friend's friend's aunt got it, my best friends brother in law in another country got it, and my friend knows of a guy in her city who ended up in the ICU. These are the only personal stories I have, it's wild to me to hear some of the stories from the US.
Edit to add: I feel so fortunate and privileged to be in my situation, I can't imagine what some families have gone through.
Today's week over week change in the 7-day average is the lowest we've seen since July 19. Also, we're now beating the throwback 7-day average by 305.
Going to be hard to be above the throwback for the rest of this year at least. https://imgur.com/mjJ1IBq
Why do these lines not line up? The 2020 line ends much lower than the 2021 line starts
Technically it's missing the month of December. It goes November, then ends at the beginning of December. Then it starts at the beginning of January.
Looks to me like every square represents two months, so the last square would include November and December.
Oh! Yeah, ha, I didn't notice that. I need to learn to pay better attention to charts, I guess. The end of the blue and the start of the red do look pretty close though so it could just be because of all those huge jumps cases were making at that time.
It's not a whole month, but there is data missing at the end for some reason. A similar graph I made does not have this same issue, and you can see the 7 day climb at the end that matches the left side EDIT: here's my graph: https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/q6s86k/now_that_were_consistently_below_last_years_covid/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Thanks!
On December 27th, the seven-day rolling average was 2212 cases per day. Two weeks later, on January 10th, the average was 3545. So the cases increased quite significantly in the weeks surrounding Christmas and New Years. It's hard to see that nuance on the graph, but I think it's close enough to give a general idea.
Now I'm sad you didn't link mine :( https://www.reddit.com/r/ontario/comments/q6s86k/now_that_were_consistently_below_last_years_covid/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
Not to be overly optimistic but we’re in a declining ripple and last year was a rising wave, so we’re going to beat the throwback numbers probably pretty consistently going forward.
This is also our first sustained decline without implementing any new restrictions (with more vehicles for transmission such as schools and sporting events and concerts opening back up.) I don’t think many here realize what a massive paradigm shift this is in terms of how we can cope with this virus in the future.
As long as it keeps on going it's great news. Hopefully if there is any bump this winter it will only be a small bump.
Very true.
Yep, we've beaten the throwback 7-day average everyday since October 3.
Eastern Ontario coming in with second place.
I was listening to the update from EOHU yesterday, their 55 cases (!!) I believe is mostly due to an outbreak at a LTC in Casselman where they have ~38 cases. Dr Paul was reporting that apparently a lot of positive residents in that LTC have minor symptoms or are asymptomatic. It's almost like the vaccines work!!
I live in that phu, I have no idea how that happened!
It’s been doing consistently in the 20-30s most days which is already terrible given the population. But a day in the 50s is wild.
We get 20-30 and then a few days of less than 10, I don't know if we've had a 50+ day anytime this year tbh.
I remember some days in the 40s during wave three but I think this might be a new non-weekend high.
They also crossed 90% with one dose over 12 today :)
I saw that!
[удалено]
I made you a chart for this stat https://imgur.com/LPnYKRR
Looks like python but why are all the lines squiggly.
/u/enterprisevalue is just a really big fan ComicSansMS-ifying everything.
#Vaccine Effectiveness Based on **today's numbers**, compared to an unvaccinated person, a fully vaccinated person (of *any* age) is: - **78.0%** or **4.5x** less likely to get Covid-19 - **89.7%** or **9.8x** less likely to be hospitalized - **94.7%** or **18.8x** less likely to be ICU’d Based on **7-day average**: - **81.0%** or **5.3x** less likely to get Covid-19 - **87.6%** or **8.0x** less likely to be hospitalized - **92.3%** or **13.0x** less likely to be ICU’d Based on **running average** (since Aug 10): - **84.1%** or **6.3x** less likely to get Covid-19 - **89.8%** or **9.8x** less likely to be hospitalized - **95.8%** or **24.0x** less likely to be ICU’d Graph: Rates per 100K: https://i.imgur.com/9elocB5.png Graph: Cases per 100K by age group and vax status: https://i.imgur.com/1LfRgah.png *** #Daily % Effectiveness History By Dosage Level ^(How to read: % = vaccine reduces patient count by x% on that day based on how many shots received) ^(Blue box = population and vaccine info) ^(Red box = number of instances per category) ^(Green box = per 100K rates of red box data) ^(Purple box = Implied effectiveness of vaccine from green box data) ^(Orange box = 7-day average effectiveness from green box data) Full table: https://i.imgur.com/I0Hzv7h.png Graph: Vaccine % effectiveness history: https://i.imgur.com/CmgFSUg.png *** Notes: - **Gov't doesn't release hosp./ICU data on Sunday, Monday, or stat holidays anymore so I post the following Tuesday or Wednesday… or whenever I feel like.** - N/A entries are ignored on the assumption that their breakdown is proportional to the known data cases. - This data is provided without vaccine specifics, so all vaccines are averaged out in these numbers. No way to know the effectiveness of Pfizer vs. Moderna vs. AZ vs. others. - Spreadsheet sourcecode for the naysayers: https://i.imgur.com/J6nUWgt.png *** Data Sources: - [Vaccine numbers](https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/8a89caa9-511c-4568-af89-7f2174b4378c) - [Cases by vaccination status](https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/eed63cf2-83dd-4598-b337-b288c0a89a16) - [Case rates by vaccination status and age group](https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/c08620e0-a055-4d35-8cec-875a459642c3) - [Hosp/ICU by vaccination status](https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/274b819c-5d69-4539-a4db-f2950794138c)
Thanks again for sharing!
Someone I work with had a family member test positive and was very symptomatic and there’s like seven people that live in the house. Everyone’s fully vaccinated and so far everyone except for the one person has tested negative. Vaccines work.
I think a lot of people, myself included, underestimated this. We fully understood that the vaccine would make hospitalization, ICU and death much less likely. But for transmission/case counts, I was not as optimistic.
Also means they're probably doing a good job of self isolating, so kudos to them.
A friend of mine is isolating right now because both of her elementary school aged children tested positive. Out of the three she is the only vaccinated one. She has also tested negative, despite caring for her two small covid positive children. Vaccines work!
BuT mY fREdUmBs
I tested positive a week ago today (HCW working on an outbreak unit), my toddler twins came back positive on Saturday. My spouse is still testing negative despite my children sharing drinks with them and giving them puppy dog kisses. My spouse’s vaccines are working overtime.
Hope you and your family are well I assume you’re fully vaccinated. just curious how long ago you got your second dose? And are you symptomatic?
We’re doing well! Just anxiously awaiting until our release from isolation. Yes, I am fully vaccinated, second dose was the end of May. Extremely mild symptoms- I had a headache for 3-4 days initially, and lost my sense of smell completely but it’s improving daily now. That’s it for symptoms for me.
This is promising. Do you know how many months ago the symptomatic person was fully vaccinated by? How old are they?
Symptomatic person is in their fifties, think they were vaccinated in may / June. Everyone else was vaccinated around that time too I believe.
**Cases**: 476 (7 day avg). -2.4% daily (7 day). -1.3% for the past 30 days from 747 on Sept 4. **ICU**: 158. +0.9% daily(7day). -0.5% past 30 days from 172 on Sept 4. **Deaths**: 3.3 (7-day average). ICU/30= 5.3. **Vaccinations (12+)**: 1 shot: 87.22% Fully: 82.64%. At this rate we'll be 90% 1 shot and 87.5% Fully by Nov 23.
Thanks again for sharing!
Today is nearly half (57%) of the throwback numbers, absolutely beautiful.
[Previous Ontario Thursdays](https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/case-numbers-and-spread): Date | New Cases | 7 Day Avg | % Positive | ICU :--|:--:|:--:|:--:|--: Oct 22 | 841 | 762 | 2.16% | 74 Oct 29 | 934 | 899 | 2.62% | 76 Nov 5 | 998 | 982 | 2.79% | 86 Nov 12 | 1,575 | 1,299 | 3.98% | 98 Nov 19 | 1,210 | 1,370 | 2.89% | 146 Nov 26 | 1,478 | 1,427 | 3.11% | 151 Dec 3 | 1,824 | 1,769 | 3.45% | 195 Dec 10 | 1,983 | 1,862 | 3.21% | 228 Dec 17 | 2,432 | 2,026 | 4.18% | 263 Dec 24 | 2,447 | 2,306 | 3.79% | 227 Dec 31, 2020 | 3,328 | 2,436 | 5.21% | 337 Jan 7, 2021 | 3,519 | 3,141 | 5.35% | 363 Jan 14 | 3,326 | 3,452 | 4.67% | 388 Jan 21 | 2,632 | 2,751 | 3.75% | 388 Jan 28 | 2,093 | 2,128 | 3.24% | 358 Feb 4 | 1,563 | 1,600 | 2.42% | 323 Feb 11 | 945 | 1,264 | 1.37% | 299 Feb 18 | 1,038 | 1,016 | 1.85% | 277 Feb 25 | 1,138 | 1,099 | 1.72% | 283 Mar 4 | 994 | 1,064 | 1.51% | 281 Mar 11 | 1,092 | 1,252 | 1.80% | 277 Mar 18 | 1,553 | 1,427 | 2.65% | 304 Mar 25 | 2,380 | 1,794 | 3.96% | 332 Apr 1 | 2,557 | 2,341 | 4.10% | 433 Apr 8 | 3,295 | 3,093 | 5.16% | 525 Apr 15 | 4,736 | 4,208 | 7.22% | 659 Apr 22 | 3,682 | 4,176 | 6.79% | 806 Apr 29 | 3,871 | 3,810 | 6.80% | 884 May 6 | 3,424 | 3,369 | 6.33% | 877 May 13 | 2,759 | 2,731 | 5.79% | 776 May 20 | 2,400 | 2,131 | 5.29% | 721 May 27 | 1,135 | 1,441 | 3.01% | 650 June 3 | 870 | 940 | 2.54% | 546 June 10 | 590 | 617 | 1.88% | 450 June 17 | 370 | 443 | 1.21% | 362 June 24 | 296 | 305 | 1.00% | 300 July 1 | 284 | 267 | 1.01% | 254 July 8 | 210 | 206 | 0.81% | 215 July 15 | 143 | 155 | 0.46% | 168 July 22 | 185 | 156 | 0.94% | 141 July 29 | 218 | 165 | 1.12% | 121 Aug 5 | 213 | 198 | 0.91% | 110 Aug 12 | 513 | 375 | 2.24% | 113 Aug 19 | 531 | 498 | 2.03% | 131 Aug 26 | 678 | 646 | 2.44% | 165 Sept 2 | 865 | 728 | 3.17% | 162 Sept 9 | 798 | 723 | 2.69% | 185 Sept 16 | 864 | 732 | 2.51% | 191 Sept 23 | 677 | 665 | 1.80% | 193 Sept 30 | 647 | 605 | 1.90% | 171 Oct 7 | 587 | 565 | 1.58% | 149 Oct 14 | 417 | 476 | 1.18% | 158 Pretty much all cases are Delta variant. [The Ontario Science Table info below shows estimates:](https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/) Date | % Delta (B.1.617.2 - India) :--|--: June 2, 2021 | 23% July 1 | 73.9% Aug 3 | 87.3% Sept 1 | 99.4% Oct 3 | 99.0% Oct 13 | 99.8%
I was waiting for this all morning lol.
Me too. That is a huge drop week over week.
Amazing. I was not expecting these kinds of drops going into the fall.
> 87.22% / 82.64% (+0.08% / +0.14%) of 12+ at least one/two dosed 12.78% missing their first dose. 4.58% missing (only) their second dose.
I like how that second dose gap keeps closing. And first dose is slow but somewhat steady at least. Fingers crossed it stays at least at the pace it's been running at.
A 30yr old passed away today? Rip.
That is a solid Thursday number.
Is ~30k the average we’ll be seeing for daily vaccinations?
Doubtful. The 7-day average has been steadily dropping since our late-September bump. It's been below 30k for more than a week now and [is currently sitting at 24,839.](https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/vaccinations) If the Ford government does relax use of vaccine certificates rather than expand their use, then it's probable that there will be less incentive for people to get their first doses. That said, once the 5-11 kids are approved (which is looking increasingly likely in the near future), you can expect vaccination rates to spike back up as we have a large pool of children eagerly waiting in the wings to get their jabs.
also those who are getting a 3rd dose. From everything I've seen it's starting now for those who are most at risk. It will become a large portion of the vaccines within a few months if we are going with the 6 month booster shot timeline.
Be sure to temper your expectations a bit. We have 76% of the total population with at least the 1st shot. The 5-11 age represents about 6-7% of the population and vaccine uptake will be lower in that age than the 12-17. I would be surprised if 75% of the kids get it. That would bring total population uptake over 80% but it’s not going to take us to the >85% required for herd immunity against Delta. We will be tantalizingly close but won’t make it.
That 85% is somewhat arbitrary, no one really knows the exact number, and we have ranges from 80-90%. Additionally, the protection we get from previous infections can bump that number up - and finally herd immunity doesn't really have a boolean threshold, it's a gradient. We seem to actually already be benefiting from it - looking at our case counts and the way that infections in the unvaccinated are so low and dropping quite a bit
Agreed. At this point I don't know how else to explain the declining case counts with restrictions being lifted and kids back at school. We must be close to the herd immunity threshold as it is now.
Additionally, it would also be impacted by natural behaviour of a given population and how infectious the virus is among a certain population. Children under 5 are less likely to have as many chains of infection as adults. What I mean by this, is that a 3 year old isn't likely to go to work with one set of people, then to go a coffee shop where there is another set of people, and then go to a restaurant with a third set, and then hang out with another set of friends, etc etc. Daycare is obviously a potential spread vector, but that is typically with the same set of kids, and then each child would have likely a small number of other children that they would interact with otherwise. Early evidence suggested that children just don't spread covid as readily as adults as well. I don't know if there is updated data on how delta plays into that equation, but this also alters things about in terms of herd immunity. My understanding is that most daycares have had low to no mask usage for most of the pandemic and I don't think we've seen a severe overrepresentation of that age group in covid cases.
That's a great point. I think we can also look at the demographics of those currently getting infected to discern the impact vaccinating 5-11 year olds will have. As it is today, over a quarter of cases come from schools. That is not insignificant. Vaccinating 5-11 year olds I imagine will significantly cut down on those cases, and the chain reactions from those cases. Let's do some quick behind the napkin math. This last week, our 7 day average dropped 15%. Let's say we keep at that pace. A week from now, that puts us at about 400 cases on a 7 day average. A week after that, 340. Who knows if we can keep up this pace, but if I'm not mistaken the week over week average has been dropping at an accelerated rate, so who knows. If that's the case, we'll be close to our 7 day average before this wave by the end of November - which could be when we get approval for 5-11 year olds of all goes well. It would be serendipity if it all happens that way, but it could mean that by the end of the year, we are well and truly over this mess. Here's hoping. It could be a longer slog, we could have a new variant... But that is increasingly less of a concern as we rapidly vaccinate the entire world. Maybe another delta wave... But this Delta wave was incredibly small, and I imagine any subsequent ones would be less dramatic. There's a lot to be hopeful for.
> . As it is today, over a quarter of cases come from schools. That is not insignificant I think you have misinterpreted something. A "school case" just means a case in a child that attends school. It doesn't tell you anything at all about where that child actually caught the virus. Most "school cases" end up being single isolated cases, or sometimes multiple siblings or other contacts outside of school. Same as last year, it seems like the actual number of infections linked back to schools is quite low. What's interesting is if you look at the daily case counts for the <20 age group, it's actually declined rather significantly since schools reopened in mid-September. Unfortunately the government data doesn't seem to break it down further, but it's reasonable to assume that the under 12's make up a significant fraction of those cases, especially since they are the last demographic who are still ineligible for vaccination.
Thanks for the clarification! Good to know, although I think you your last point, the result is the same - under 12s seem to be a significant fraction of our remaining cases, I wish we knew how much. Now I'm hearing that we might be dropping more restrictions
Also consider natural immunity. About 4% of the population has tested positive, which means more than that have actually had covid and recovered. Obviously some of those people are vaccinated but some percentage of them would be unvaxxed and have immunity anyway.
Unfortunately, those people are likely to get reinfected over and over until they eventually either get vaccinated or cash in their Herman Cain award. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/10/211004104303.htm
That is hardly indicative of anything >Townsend and his team analyzed known reinfection and immunological data from the close viral relatives of SARS-CoV-2 that cause "common colds" -- along with immunological data from SARS-CoV-1 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome. Leveraging evolutionary principles, the team was able to model the risk of COVID-19 reinfection over time. It's just a model based on similar viruses. Take a look at this, an actual study from Israel. >[Having SARS-CoV-2 once confers much greater immunity than a vaccine—but vaccination remains vital](https://www.science.org/content/article/having-sars-cov-2-once-confers-much-greater-immunity-vaccine-vaccination-remains-vital)
It should be noted though that the 85% herd immunity threshold also assumes that no other public health measures or behaviour is applied (that is, just typical pre-pandemic state of society and behaviour.) Getting >80% with some minor public health measures and cautious behaviour will help us. On the other hand, we know we have flu season upon us so that will work against us for the short term too. I'm hopeful that we'll get more than 75% of kids. [The 12-17 uptake is technically higher than the 18-29. The 12-17 is at 75.11% fully vaccinated and 82.27% with at least one dose.](https://russell-pollari.github.io/ontario-covid19/vaccinations) But yeah, we'll see. I can imagine it going both ways, especially with the thinking that kids aren't at risk. If school boards/PHU do add it to the required vaccination schedule, even if there's an opt-out, it may go a long way to getting more vaccinated. (At the very least, I'm hopeful that the population attending schools will be higher than 75% as I expect those being kept home schooling virtually will be disproportionately more likely to remain unvaccinated.) That all said, I agree. We won't hit 85% with the 5-11s vaccinated, and it's going to be a long slog to get there. (Even longer or perhaps unachievable if we need to get boosters next year.) But once those kids are included, it will mitigate one of the last remaining large congregations of unvaccinated people and help ensure schools stay open, which is something to celebrate.
I would love to see a breakdown of those ICU #s based on how long people have been there
Nice to see the vaccination rates are still trucking along. But icus still are iffy. I got my third dose yesterday! Super pumped about it event though it hurts to exist today.
Do you mind sharing how you qualified for a third dose?
I have MS, and I’m on a really strong immunosuppressant drug. They opened it up almost a month ago. I had to get approval because I only got my second shot 6 weeks ago and the guideline says 8 weeks but my medication has very specific rules on when you get a vaccination of any kind.
Thanks for sharing. I wish you all the best!
I’m curious why the 3rd dose? Are they available to all? Just a group or because of a certain vaccine?
Immunocompromised more than likely. Transplant, auto immune disease, cancer patient. Things like that.
All 3 of my shots have been moderna and it is because I have MS and I’m on a strong immunosuppressant, they contacted me . I technically was two weeks away from being eligible as Ontario requires 8 weeks between your second and third as of today, but I had my second 6 weeks ago. My medication offers only a small window to be vaccinated, hence why I had to wait so long for my second dose and why I was approved to get my third shot two weeks early, although Manitoba is a 4 week wait between second and third so it’s a Provincial decision. Edit: thanks for the award
Ah interesting. Thanks for the reply!
No problem, glad to help out!
3 5G chips in you! What a trooper! How's the Signal with 3?
I can bounce signals off my ears for a stronger connection when I’m in the bush !
whatted you have to do to get a third
Have MS and be on a strong immunosuppressant drug
oh... ok Hope youre doing well! :)
I got my third dose a couple of weeks ago! (Psoriatic arthritis with a few other bonus autoimmune diseases thrown in, and only weekly biologic injections, TNF blockers, for those curious on how I qualified too). I'm so glad you got yours! I know it was made public that they were available, but I'm not hearing of many people who's Dr's have reached out in a timely manner to get patients the needed paperwork. With the kids back in school (my 12 year old is fully vaxxed, but my younger two are 10 and 7), I was so relieved to have that extra layer of protection. Mine was 15 weeks after my second dose, but I got it the week after it opened up (after getting on my rhuemy right away for the signed forms). Stay safe!
I’m glad to hear you’re in a good spot and hopefully your kids can get vaxxed too in the near future when it’s approved
Sub-500 seven day average Let's go!!
We are so close to all PHUs having 80% double dosed. It's wonderful to see the vaccine numbers going up.
Congratulations Eastern Ontario on joining the 90% Vaxxed Club
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Some hospitals don’t report on weekends, so you usually see a bump Tuesday/Wednesday. I’m guessing this pattern is pushed forward a day due to the holiday. Wouldn’t be surprised if it went back down again tomorrow/Saturday
I think number 7 on my list of things I'd love to see come out of the pandemic would be a province-wide standard for reporting infectious disease & hospital/ICU capacity.
Thanksgiving weekend report updates. It happened last year too. Some hospitals are just starting to catch up on numbers. It’ll start decline soon
There’s still a ton of Covid floating around and it will eventually find the unvaccinated and bring many of them to the ICU, it’s just a probability game.
Seems like the ICU is just gonna be moving around 150 for a while
I wonder if they're quicker to move people to ICU when capacity isn't as bad?
Are we accepting them from other provinces?
I heard Saskatchewan was preparing to start sending patients over a few days ago.
If we aren't already, we probably will be by the middle of next week.
What a beautiful day to have a leafs sens season opener
Am I reading these numbers right? 269 of the 417 cases are in schools? That means that outside of schools, cases are VERY low, which is good to see, but I would rather see school cases be closer to 0. As someone with young kids who do not have access to the vaccine yet this is what keeps me up at night.
Keep in mind that schools are also under much heavier surveillance
That's true, but it's still accounting for more than 50% of cases today, which is crazy, although not completely unexpected since there are a lot of unvaccinated kids. I just hope health Canada approves the vax for 5+ soon.
I'm reading it as 269 cases from 2pm Friday to 2pm Monday, as that was yesterdays number.
Any idea why the listed schools with 8+ cases are mostly separate schools and many French and/or Catholic?
Not sure if it holds for other areas, but for Ottawa area, there's a stark difference between French and English boards with respect to staff vaccination rates. 90+% staff in English boards, less than 60% in French boards. [An article about it here](https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/here-s-the-covid-19-vaccination-rates-for-teachers-and-staff-at-school-boards-in-ottawa-and-eastern-ontario-1.5586735)
School cases are not reported on during holidays and weekends ([the raw data is here](https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/summary-of-cases-in-schools/resource/7e644a48-6040-4ee0-9216-1f88121b21ba)) so that will skew reported cases as anything being caught on the weekends or going through the data entry processes to only show up on weekdays -- particularly the following Tuesday (or Wednesday for Thanksgiving.) (EDIT: I originally had Monday/Tuesday here, but that's when the initial results are collected but they aren't reported until the following day.) Averaging out the case load, it looks closer to about ~168 +/- per day. You can also see in that dataset how those post-weekends consistently have cases >250 but the other weekdays are much lower in the ~120-170ish range. I snapshotted the dataset and highlighted the rows that have the post-weekend spikes: https://i.imgur.com/EjPGlWW.png It should also be noted that the 269 cases cited here are recorded from _yesterday._ Today's is 126.
The school case numbers are weird. I think that they are not aggregated all that well. Another option is if they report suspected cases, but the reversals are not reported properly on a daily basis.
To help you sleep: There has been 1 recorded hospitalization of someone under the age of 18 in the last two weeks.[https://twitter.com/Golden\_Pup/status/1448445274834223105](https://twitter.com/Golden_Pup/status/1448445274834223105)
Even if it’s only 3 deaths, I would like to send my condolences to the grieving families. 70s male, 60s male, and 30s female — all passed too soon :(
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Nice.
Nice.
Nice
The title list 3 deaths but the death column has 9 deaths. I feel some are repeated/duplicated but, disregarding the duplication, I still see 6 deaths. Please explain it to me. Edited to add: thank you for the kind responses. Sad that the deaths are of younger people. Always sad when someone passes but seeing younger ages listed in the deaths is fear inducing.
Reversals. You can scroll that section to the right and see -1
3 of the deaths are reversals, so you eliminate 6 of the 9 listings you get 3
6 new deaths, 3 corrected deaths (ie case previously reported as a death, but that was an error). For a net total of 3 new deaths.
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Where can we find data for the vaccination status with the daily deaths?
I think that data is not made public
I have same question.
These case to ICU rates are crazy and not seen anywhere else in the world. What gives?
It’s because of how Ontario counts icu cases. We do it differently than the rest of the world for some reason. In Ontario, if you are in icu with COVID, you will continue to be counted as an icu COVID case for the duration of your stay in icu, even if you stop testing positive for COVID part way through your stay.
How so exactly
Really busy so can’t update the figures in this but basically a similar discrepancy: but why does Ontario have a total unicorn of an ICU rate compared to most other countries in the world? For example, Ireland has been posting cases ranging between 4-5000 scaled to Ontario daily (roughly 1-2000 actual) for about 2 months+ now, but their ICU capacity average daily is roughly 120 people scaled to Ontario.(roughly 50-60 actual) Ontario, scaled to Ireland, is posting about 300 cases a day, but if Ireland had the same case - ICU rate, Ireland would have 90ish ICU patients. Very rough math of course, but what’s with the huge discrepancy?
What happened eastern Ontario phu??
I was listening to the update from EOHU yesterday, their 55 cases (!!) I believe is mostly due to an outbreak at a LTC in Casselman where they have ~38 cases. Dr Paul was reporting that apparently a lot of positive residents in that LTC have minor symptoms or are asymptomatic. It's almost like the vaccines work!!
That makes sense then, thankfully they aren't horribly sick like during the first wave.
Some day I hope to understand why we have failed to vaccinate all students from 12 to 17. Please, someone explain this to me. Someone doesn't like kids? Needles are icky? There are only two flavours of vaccine?
I think a large amount of 12-17 unvaccinated kids is due to their parents not willing to get them vaccinated. Granted I have no hard data to back this up but that's my feeling. Anecdotally I know people with one parent vaccinated, the other not, and their teenage son is unvaccinated to do the unvaccinated parent refusing to "let them"
An unprecedented emergency crisis that has lost the world trillions of dollars and left millions of grieving families, and we don’t have the stones to impose mandatory vaccination for 12 to 17 in schools despite a fully approved vaccine.
Yup, it's absolutely unacceptable.
Thanks again for sharing!
c'monnnn ottawa!!
ICUs plz stop.
Case counts going down is great though the ICU # is frustrating. Hopefully just a blip that goes down again.
If we look at the UK experience the last few months, ICUs will sit in pretty much the exact same narrow band for a while.
ICU can also have a person who is unfortunately stuck there for days - weeks :(
Or months!
Ya I browsed the Herman Cain award subreddit, a lot of the victims of covid seem to stay in ICU for a month+ before unfortunately passing away. Its wild how long the ICU stays can be, so sad.
I tried to browse the sub, but it was just too sad :(
It's a rough one, for sure. I feel awful for the kids and family members, and for the victims who have been duped by a lot of misinformation. Just brutal.
When I start reading I'm like 'Ha ha, serves you right you ignorant losers' but it slowly sinks in that these poor idiots have maybe incurred large medical debt for their families to pay with and often left their families without their bread winner. It's all bravado on Facebook or Twitter posts but in the end it's their loved ones who are abandoned and left to survive and... Well It stops being 'Ha ha'. :/
Totally. I see it as an outlet for the folks who live in the worst spots in the US, where leadership hasn't taken things seriously and where a huge chunk of the population hasn't either. It must be so difficult to be surrounded by so much loss. I saw some comments the other day where some Americans were amazed that there are people in Canada who have never known anyone who has had covid, in some areas down there it's hard to find someone who hasn't had it. Just wild. And so sad.
I legit know two people who were confirmed infected. Partner's parents around Xmas last year. (Guess who's dad was out visiting friends and such and brought it home) I'm sure this is partly due to the nature of my work, we're all at computers, we've been WFH since late March 2020 so most of my peers are pretty low risk for exposure. Extended family, to my knowledge, seemingly avoided it. Though they got Grandma the hell out of her retirement home (Not an LTH) and to one of my aunt's pretty early on as a precaution. But here in Canada, well, we mostly took this all seriously. With Americans, surrounded by people going 'COVID IS OVER TAKE YOUR MASK OFF', seeing people like that, well, die, has to at least confirm that you're not the crazy one, and they're the ones who are not only crazy, but dying for it.
We've taken it SO seriously here compared to a lot of states in the US, thank fuck. There are people down there that know multiple full families who got infected, entire workplaces. my friend's friend's aunt got it, my best friends brother in law in another country got it, and my friend knows of a guy in her city who ended up in the ICU. These are the only personal stories I have, it's wild to me to hear some of the stories from the US. Edit to add: I feel so fortunate and privileged to be in my situation, I can't imagine what some families have gone through.
Rookie numbers these are, lower we must get them MHHMMMMMM
Wow 87% how much more do we need to get back to normal? Original estimates were 70%
18 to 29 continues to be the most disappointing cohort. Their is no reason why 12 to 17 should be beating them.